Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 253690 times)

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3500 on: August 07, 2020, 02:14:56 PM »
Yeah, those crazy Swedes are so irresponsible! Lucky we didn't follow their stupid strategy in the US! /s

mm1970

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kenmoremmm

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3502 on: August 07, 2020, 03:19:28 PM »
death rate, per case, shouldn't matter. it should be death rate per capita. again, i'm sure they're not great there, but they didn't shut down and of course will be on the higher end. and, we're still in the early stages of this.

the only way the sweden approach doesn't "win" in the end is if a vaccine is developed very early and is able to be distributed over the world quickly. otherwise, all countries will either face eternal lockdowns/self-quarantines or will end up with sweden's death rate (per capita)

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3503 on: August 07, 2020, 03:32:48 PM »
Check out Sweden's deaths at the moment. They've definitely turned a corner.

Yes and very unlikely to have a second wave.  It will be interesting to see if they made the right long term call.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3504 on: August 07, 2020, 03:36:02 PM »
death rate, per case, shouldn't matter. it should be death rate per capita.

Well, death rate per infection is really what matters.  Case data doesn't give us that.

Telecaster

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3505 on: August 07, 2020, 04:00:51 PM »
death rate, per case, shouldn't matter. it should be death rate per capita. again, i'm sure they're not great there, but they didn't shut down and of course will be on the higher end. and, we're still in the early stages of this.

the only way the sweden approach doesn't "win" in the end is if a vaccine is developed very early and is able to be distributed over the world quickly. otherwise, all countries will either face eternal lockdowns/self-quarantines or will end up with sweden's death rate (per capita)

There are a number of other ways Sweden doesn't "win" in the end.  First, they've already experienced a significantly higher death rate than their peer nations, like Denmark, Norway, Finland, and Germany, and even the EU as whole.  And it isn't close.  Yet their economy has contracted by about the same amount as their peer nations.  The previously mentioned nations have been able to open up in a responsible way, with schools open in Denmark, bier gardens open in Germany, etc. backed up by robust testing and contact tracing.  And anti-body testing shows that Sweden isn't even in the same zip code as herd immunity.  It is hard to see that Sweden gained any benefit at all. 

Next, in just a few short months much has been learned how to treat the disease.   Treatments like Remdesivir and Dexamethasone others, while not panaceas, have greatly reduced the fatality rate.  Your chances of surviving COVID are straight up better today than they were a few months ago.  In the next few months we should see effective anti-viral drugs and anti-body treatments as well.

To put it another way, Sweden has had five to ten times the death rate per capita as peer nations yet suffered equal economic damage.  You can regain economic losses.  The people who are dead are dead forever.  That is a true cost in human suffering.  And even absent an effective vaccine, new treatments have made COVID much more survivable.  So yes, kicking the can down the road has value. 

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3506 on: August 07, 2020, 07:26:48 PM »

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/08/05/899365887/charts-how-the-u-s-ranks-on-covid-19-deaths-per-capita-and-by-case-count

Still a 7% death rate for Sweden overall.

They're massively undertesting, a bit under 60 tests per 1,000 people vs neighbouring Denmark with 252. But that doesn't matter. What matters is how many died from it - and how many more or less died from other causes. You lock things down and maybe less people die from the virus, but maybe more people die from cancer, heart disease, suicide and so on. Either way you're dead in the end, question is what's the overall toll or difference. If we save 1,000 lives from covid but lose 2,000 to cancer, etc, then we did it wrong. And vice versa. If we save 1,000 covid lives but lose 1,000 others, then we may as well not have bothered, it comes out even in the end.


Overall excess deaths is what we need to look at to assess the value of a country's approach, then we can look at other factors like demographics to decide how much was their approach and how much was just luck.

All countries have recorded excess deaths - except, interestingly, Norway and South Africa. I don't know about Norway but evidently South Africa's ban on a lot of movement and closing liquor stores has helped them more than covid has hurt them - but then, they're a young country. Sweden's in the middle of the pack for excess deaths. They're a lot worse than Denmark and Norway, who had lockdowns - but a lot better than Italy, Spain, UK and so on who had even fiercer lockdowns.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries


So the lockdown itself is neither here nor there. There are other aspects to it. Some are things you can't change, like demographics - a country with an average age of 47yo, like Italy, was always going to do worse than a country with an average age of 39yo like Norway. Other things you can change, like how quickly you close your borders, how well do your systems work, and so on.

Medical systems aren't just the doctors and nurses. It's things like contact tracing, too. We don't know the official average here in Australia as apparently nobody has thought to track it, which means it'll be woeful. But basically: if I am infectious today, you want to be able to talk to my close contacts today, too, ideally. Every day you wait gives them another day to unknowingly infect others.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/it-s-dire-contract-tracing-delays-threaten-coronavirus-fight-20200807-p55jm0.html

And that, I think, is part of the reason for the lockdown we're suffering now in Victoria - a desperate attempt to get a handle on things, and keep new cases low enough that they can track their contacts. This is one reason that Taiwan, Japan and South Korea have kept cases so low while barely locking anything down - from their previous experience with SARS they had good contact tracing systems. They got right onto things, meanwhile we were faffing about wondering about what would happen to the footy season.

We were unwilling to learn from success. This, unfortunately, is a trait of the Anglosphere - we know best, can't possibly learn from those foreign buggers. America's the worst example of it, but the UK and Australia do it too.

Perhaps the mass graves we've dug will give us pause to reconsider.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2020, 07:38:21 PM by Kyle Schuant »

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3507 on: August 07, 2020, 07:59:15 PM »
Why the fuck is Victoria keeping open liquor stores (as "essential retail" - normal retail is all closed) and safe injecting rooms (the latter past 8pm curfew)? Everyone else has to do their fair part to restrict movement but alcoholics and druggies just get a free pass? I mean, why the heck does a safe injecting room have to operate past curfew?

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3508 on: August 07, 2020, 08:22:59 PM »
Why the fuck is Victoria keeping open liquor stores (as "essential retail" - normal retail is all closed) and safe injecting rooms (the latter past 8pm curfew)? Everyone else has to do their fair part to restrict movement but alcoholics and druggies just get a free pass? I mean, why the heck does a safe injecting room have to operate past curfew?

It's to keep withdrawal cases from clogging up the ER and critical care wards. Sad but true.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3509 on: August 07, 2020, 08:29:46 PM »
Historically, the safe injecting rooms were set up because the addicts were shooting up, overdosing and dying in laneways, and reusing needles. The injecting rooms have clean needles and staff on hand with Narcan and the like. This means that less drug addicts die. Now, you may or may not care about their deaths, but that's the aim - and the results are that fewer die. As the Premier said, in this respect the injecting rooms should be viewed as the same as a hospital or the like, they remain open.

The curfew and the widespread retail lockdown is of course stupid, pointless and punitive merely, but if we have safe injecting rooms at all, then they should remain open despite the curfew.

Liquor stores are another matter. We've previously discussed this here and elsewhere, and defenders said that with the stores closed, alcohol abusers would go into withdrawal and die. However, the experience of South Africa, and many individual cities worldwide in closing them - that didn't happen - South Africa has overall less deaths. ERs haven't been flooded with people in the grips of screaming DTs. It just hasn't happened. So far as I can tell there have no yet been any studies of this, but logically there are only three possibilities:

1. the alcohol abusers got their alcohol from somewhere else
2. there aren't as many alcohol abusers as we thought
3. alcohol withdrawal isn't as deadly as we thought

and it's probably a combination of all three.

As well, if you look at the stats, well... in 2017 in Australia there were 1,366 alcohol-induced deaths, and another 2,820 deaths where alcohol was a contributing factor (cancer, car accidents, etc). So if closing liquor stores caused some withdrawal deaths, they'd also prevent some alcohol-induced deaths. Would it come out even? I don't know - I believe people should have the choice with some restrictions (no sales to under-18s or already intoxicated people, etc). We sacrifice some lives for our freedoms, I don't have a problem with that.

But if we're willing to sacrifice some lives for our freedoms to drink, smoke, eat crappy food, sit on the couch all day... why not for covid, too? Why do I have the freedom to be a drunk, but I don't have the freedom to go to the gym during a pandemic? If you answer, "well, because you might infect/harm others", that's fair enough, but then... alcohol... cars... um... Why is it worth shutting down everything for deadly problem A, but not deadly problem B? Why is problem A killing people "well that's just their choice" but not problem B?

These aren't easy questions. But there is more than one deadly problem in the world. Let's not forget the others and fuck up the trolley problem.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2020, 08:47:48 PM by Kyle Schuant »

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3510 on: August 07, 2020, 09:06:37 PM »
Why the fuck is Victoria keeping open liquor stores (as "essential retail" - normal retail is all closed) and safe injecting rooms (the latter past 8pm curfew)? Everyone else has to do their fair part to restrict movement but alcoholics and druggies just get a free pass? I mean, why the heck does a safe injecting room have to operate past curfew?

It's to keep withdrawal cases from clogging up the ER and critical care wards. Sad but true.

Mmm. In addition, I kinda feel that a substantially large majority of the population need a 'mild' vice in their lives. For a large proportion of people that is the odd drink or three in the evenings. For others it's smoking and for others it's the odd punt on sports or horse racing. You've obviously got a small % of those groups who are addicted and have further problems, but as @Kyle Schuant says we tolerate that as a cost of freedom.

Remove that freedom of 'mild' vices from the 3 standard deviations of the bell curve and your average politician or premier will not be in a job for long.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3511 on: August 07, 2020, 09:24:39 PM »
Yes, alcohol, dog and horse racing continue, too, as does online gambling. Add in a nice financial handout from the government and you have a suitably pacified populace who will put up with all sorts of nonsense from government.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3512 on: August 07, 2020, 09:28:23 PM »
Why the fuck is Victoria keeping open liquor stores (as "essential retail" - normal retail is all closed) and safe injecting rooms (the latter past 8pm curfew)? Everyone else has to do their fair part to restrict movement but alcoholics and druggies just get a free pass? I mean, why the heck does a safe injecting room have to operate past curfew?

It's to keep withdrawal cases from clogging up the ER and critical care wards. Sad but true.

Mmm. In addition, I kinda feel that a substantially large majority of the population need a 'mild' vice in their lives. For a large proportion of people that is the odd drink or three in the evenings. For others it's smoking and for others it's the odd punt on sports or horse racing. You've obviously got a small % of those groups who are addicted and have further problems, but as @Kyle Schuant says we tolerate that as a cost of freedom.

Remove that freedom of 'mild' vices from the 3 standard deviations of the bell curve and your average politician or premier will not be in a job for long.

Well, I'm not sure alcohol and drugs count as mild vices. Alcohol is probably the most pernicious single force in society. Either that or religion, not sure which.

But we've got plenty of "virtues" that have been heavily proscribed - e.g. exercise - so why aren't vices?

Do people who use safe injecting rooms really need to use them at midnight to prevent a withdrawal? They can't schedule their lives even an iota? Sure, everyone has some difficulty with scheduling things - but tell that to the 99% who have to abide by severe curfews including in relation to most work.

We expect people to go without family contact, any visit to their office or workplace whatsoever (unless an "essential" service) and with very limited exercise but we must give them 100% in-person access to all alcohol?

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3513 on: August 07, 2020, 11:09:39 PM »
If you think drug addicts are capable of scheduling their lives, you've never known a drug addict :)

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3514 on: August 08, 2020, 05:38:57 AM »
If you think drug addicts are capable of scheduling their lives, you've never known a drug addict :)

With the right incentive, they're pretty good at scheduling. For instance, they're kind of amazing at turning up for their methadone.

former player

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3515 on: August 08, 2020, 06:54:32 AM »
If you think drug addicts are capable of scheduling their lives, you've never known a drug addict :)

With the right incentive, they're pretty good at scheduling. For instance, they're kind of amazing at turning up for their methadone.
That's not scheduling, it's addiction.  No choices or other options involved.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3516 on: August 08, 2020, 07:53:07 AM »
If you think drug addicts are capable of scheduling their lives, you've never known a drug addict :)

With the right incentive, they're pretty good at scheduling. For instance, they're kind of amazing at turning up for their methadone.
That's not scheduling, it's addiction.  No choices or other options involved.

They were quite capable of getting a fix before they went on methadone. Choosing to stay on it is absolutely a choice. Don't take that away from them.

Meanwhile, a lot of other scheduling isn't really a choice for most people. For instance, starting work at 9am, clocking off at 5pm, picking the kids up at 3pm etc etc ad nauseam.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3517 on: August 08, 2020, 07:56:56 AM »
I feel like you’re being rather flippant about the realities of addiction and chemical dependence.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3518 on: August 08, 2020, 09:18:05 AM »
Well, look: none of us should be having a curfew, as I said not even the dept of health knows why, it's strictly punitive and ME STRONK LEEDAH stuff. Druggies have a shitty enough life already, if their sole privilege is to be able to ignore some small aspect of our shithouse useless authoritarian government - well, good luck to them.

T-Money$

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3519 on: August 08, 2020, 10:17:47 AM »
One major problem with the government coming out and saying "being fit will help you fight COVID" is that the general public cannot follow multiple messages.

We've seen this when we were first suggested to wear masks. People initially thought that meant masks were better than 6-ft distancing. They couldn't, and some still can't, comprehend that distancing is the number 1 driver of safety but masks are good when you can't stay over 6 ft apart. They heard masks and thought they could skip the distancing piece.

So if we tell people being fit will help you fight COVID, what will happen? Fit people will stop worrying about distancing and masks, which even if they don't get sick, they could still spread the disease.

Not everything is about math, sometimes it's about psychology. (as a math major, this is not easy for me to admit)

One major problem with saying that being fit helps covid is that it's not actually true. (At least by my understanding, but I'm not a scientist or anything of that nature.) I have seen many reports of young and healthy people either being hospitalized for weeks, having long term effects or even passing away from covid. Maybe they weren't "fit" in the sense of they work out regularly, but they were "healthy with no underlying conditions". I do think you are right about not being able to follow multiple messages though, which is why leadership (or lack thereof in this case) is so important. I imagine any other president would have been wearing a mask for weeks, if not months, by now. Actions speak louder than words.

Yeah, it kinda is “really true”, but I’m guessing many on this board are too “woke” to accept “really true”.   Keep hunkering down though for a disease that overwhelmingly effects obese minorities, you are definitely on the path to success. 

List of viruses eradicated, to date:

Smallpox

<The End>

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-obesity-common-covid-patients.html

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53532228

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/08/world/coronavirus-updates.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/06/health/coronavirus-immune-cells.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage





« Last Edit: August 08, 2020, 10:19:36 AM by T-Money$ »

PDXTabs

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3520 on: August 08, 2020, 10:21:03 AM »
Fit people will stop worrying about distancing and masks, which even if they don't get sick, they could still spread the disease.

That's totally illogical. I'm working out 5+ times per week because I know that if I get sick, I want to start in a good place. But that doesn't mean that I want to get sick, I still distance and wear a mask. Why give up all my gains for nothing? If I value running and cycling why would I want permanent lung damage?

Absolutely. Completely 100% illogical. Based on what you've seen in some people since March, do you expect any different?

Yes, I expect different from the majority of people with will exercise. If we can't get that we are all doomed anyway.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3521 on: August 09, 2020, 03:36:20 AM »
If The Lockdown Isn't Working, It's Because We're Not Going Hard Enough
Quote
"But [Mikakos] also said preparing for the pandemic had to be done quickly by many, and acknowledged "mistakes were made along the way, because humans are flawed yet contagious viruses are unforgiving"."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-09/coronavirus-victorian-health-minister-jenny-mikakos-twitter/12538844


[/size]
Quote

"Most people, when directly confronted by evidence that they are wrong, do not change their point of view or course of action but justify it even more tenaciously. Even irrefutable evidence is rarely enough to pierce the mental armor of self-justification. [...]
"Experts can sound pretty impressive, of course, especially when they bolster their claims by citing their years of training and experience in a field. Yet hundreds of studies have shown that, compared to predictions based on actuarial data, predictions based on an expert's years of training and personal experience are rarely better than chance. But when an expert is wrong, the centerpiece of his or her professional identity is threatened. Therefore, dissonance theory predicts that the more self-confident and famous experts are, the less likely they will be to admit mistakes. And that is just what Tetlock found. Experts reduced the dissonance caused by their failed forecasts by coming up with explanations of why they would have been right "if only" - if only that improbable calamity had not intervened; if only the timing of events had been different; if only blah-blah-blah."

― Carol Tavris, Mistakes Were Made (But Not by Me): Why We Justify Foolish Beliefs, Bad Decisions, and Hurtful Acts

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3522 on: August 09, 2020, 05:49:02 AM »

Well, I'm not sure alcohol and drugs count as mild vices. Alcohol is probably the most pernicious single force in society. Either that or religion, not sure which.

But we've got plenty of "virtues" that have been heavily proscribed - e.g. exercise - so why aren't vices?

Do people who use safe injecting rooms really need to use them at midnight to prevent a withdrawal? They can't schedule their lives even an iota? Sure, everyone has some difficulty with scheduling things - but tell that to the 99% who have to abide by severe curfews including in relation to most work.

We expect people to go without family contact, any visit to their office or workplace whatsoever (unless an "essential" service) and with very limited exercise but we must give them 100% in-person access to all alcohol?

I don’t disagree with the sentiments on drugs, but given the widespread reported use of illicit substances, you and I are in the minority. We may think people are wrong to use them, but that is not going to stop people using them.

On alcohol, humanity probably falls on a bell curve. There are always going to be those who abuse anything, legal or not.

I will tolerate a lockdown, but if you tell me my one glass of spirits per week is a consequence of a pernicious force tearing at the fabric of society and should be banned then I’ll laugh in your face. I mean, it’s also a little odd you raising it, given you’re the one out at bars all the time...?

Let me enjoy my moment of serenity at the end of a week without finger wagging. Taking that drink away would be enough for this mild mannered drone to join a RDM* protest moment.

*Rum Drinkers Matter.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3523 on: August 09, 2020, 05:57:18 AM »
I will tolerate a lockdown, but if you tell me my one glass of spirits per week is a consequence of a pernicious force tearing at the fabric of society and should be banned then I’ll laugh in your face.
"Worldwide, 3 million deaths every year result from harmful use of alcohol"
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/alcohol

Covid's not even half that so far this year.

If it's fair to put entire states or countries under house arrest to prevent deaths from covid, it's fair to ban the drinking of alcohol to prevent the deaths it causes.

Alternately, rather than huge restrictions on everyone for an indeterminate period of time, we put in some sensible restrictions which we can live with for years - just as we do for alcohol - and a zillion other things.

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3524 on: August 09, 2020, 06:58:25 AM »
I will tolerate a lockdown, but if you tell me my one glass of spirits per week is a consequence of a pernicious force tearing at the fabric of society and should be banned then I’ll laugh in your face.
"Worldwide, 3 million deaths every year result from harmful use of alcohol"
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/alcohol

Covid's not even half that so far this year.

If it's fair to put entire states or countries under house arrest to prevent deaths from covid, it's fair to ban the drinking of alcohol to prevent the deaths it causes.

Alternately, rather than huge restrictions on everyone for an indeterminate period of time, we put in some sensible restrictions which we can live with for years - just as we do for alcohol - and a zillion other things.
Sorry, while I have alcoholics in my family I do not need to worry about them infecting me with alcoholism.

After seeing drinking devastate several of my family members (including two drinking themselves to death) I am about as anti alcohol as it gets and and think it is a scourge on society but you can not compare a virus that is easily transmitted like Covid to drinking deaths.


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marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3525 on: August 09, 2020, 04:08:34 PM »
I will tolerate a lockdown, but if you tell me my one glass of spirits per week is a consequence of a pernicious force tearing at the fabric of society and should be banned then I’ll laugh in your face.
"Worldwide, 3 million deaths every year result from harmful use of alcohol"
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/alcohol

Covid's not even half that so far this year.


How many times does it have to be said? Deaths are lower because of lockdowns!

The number of deaths would be well in excess of 3 million had the shutdowns and social distancing not been enacted.

You can’t simply just say that “Covid deaths are lower than alcohol deaths so we should open everything up and restrict alcohol”.

You’re a smart person. This should be obvious.
« Last Edit: August 09, 2020, 04:10:06 PM by marty998 »

Davnasty

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3526 on: August 09, 2020, 05:18:54 PM »
I will tolerate a lockdown, but if you tell me my one glass of spirits per week is a consequence of a pernicious force tearing at the fabric of society and should be banned then I’ll laugh in your face.
"Worldwide, 3 million deaths every year result from harmful use of alcohol"
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/alcohol

Covid's not even half that so far this year.

If it's fair to put entire states or countries under house arrest to prevent deaths from covid, it's fair to ban the drinking of alcohol to prevent the deaths it causes.

Alternately, rather than huge restrictions on everyone for an indeterminate period of time, we put in some sensible restrictions which we can live with for years - just as we do for alcohol - and a zillion other things.

Do we need another reason why this is a bad analogy? Probably not but what the heck.

History has shown that alcohol prohibition does not have the desired effect of reducing consumption and alcohol related deaths. Many countries have learned the hard way that you can't reduce societal damage of alcohol by making it illegal and in fact doing so leads to other unintended consequences like creating a black market, funding gangs, and poisonings by unregulated manufacturers. But you can reduce alcohol consumption through other means like education and support for people with addiction, so we focus resources on that instead.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3527 on: August 09, 2020, 06:45:56 PM »
Alcohol isn't the issue per se. It's the free intermingling and buying of alcohol in an unrestricted fashion at liquor stores.

I can't see why in-person attendance to buy alcohol is freely allowed and unrestricted but not, say, buying garden supplies. Or hiking. Not that there's any great importance to buying garden supplies or going hiking. But I have a lot more sanguine attitude to the latter than buying alcohol. No one could say it's a necessity.

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3528 on: August 09, 2020, 07:39:35 PM »
Alcohol isn't the issue per se. It's the free intermingling and buying of alcohol in an unrestricted fashion at liquor stores.

I can't see why in-person attendance to buy alcohol is freely allowed and unrestricted but not, say, buying garden supplies. Or hiking. Not that there's any great importance to buying garden supplies or going hiking. But I have a lot more sanguine attitude to the latter than buying alcohol. No one could say it's a necessity.
Honestly I think they leave the liquor stores (and marijuana shops here) open to placate / medicate people and keep them in order.

In some ways I have done the same for ourselves by buying some treats to keep around the house and have replicated some of the meals we would have out to ease our transition to the new normal.

As they say fat, dumb and happy

Or drunk, stoned and happy LOL


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Davnasty

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3529 on: August 09, 2020, 08:11:51 PM »
Alcohol isn't the issue per se. It's the free intermingling and buying of alcohol in an unrestricted fashion at liquor stores.

I can't see why in-person attendance to buy alcohol is freely allowed and unrestricted but not, say, buying garden supplies. Or hiking. Not that there's any great importance to buying garden supplies or going hiking. But I have a lot more sanguine attitude to the latter than buying alcohol. No one could say it's a necessity.
Honestly I think they leave the liquor stores (and marijuana shops here) open to placate / medicate people and keep them in order.

In some ways I have done the same for ourselves by buying some treats to keep around the house and have replicated some of the meals we would have out to ease our transition to the new normal.

As they say fat, dumb and happy

Or drunk, stoned and happy LOL


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Another thought, if liquor stores were closed in states where that was the only place to buy liquor, I bet there would be a huge increase in the number of people making long drives and crossing state lines.

I don't know how applicable this would be in Australia, but it would definitely impact US states.

What can be sold in grocery stores:


ETA: sorry for quoting with a non-response, I was typing a response but then I thought about this and it was more interesting. I forgot where I was :)
« Last Edit: August 11, 2020, 02:01:00 PM by Davnasty »

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3530 on: August 09, 2020, 08:13:32 PM »

Sorry, while I have alcoholics in my family I do not need to worry about them infecting me with alcoholism.

You do if they're your parents. There seems to be a genetic aspect to alcohol abuse. As well, culturally there's a contagion effect: if everyone around you is a pisshead, it's likely you will be, too.


https://academic.oup.com/alcalc/article/52/6/692/4082179

Of course, alcohol abuse is also a factor in car crashes, domestic violence, and so on. So it's not just the drinker who's miserable or killed. And of course, anything to do with your personal health becomes public business when you have a publicly-funded healthcare system. That's why we have a tobacco tax, for example - mostly tobacco just kills the smoker, but the treatment's expensive, so the taxes are your layby plan for your later emphysema treatment or bypass operation.

Quote
After seeing drinking devastate several of my family members (including two drinking themselves to death) I am about as anti alcohol as it gets and and think it is a scourge on society but you can not compare a virus that is easily transmitted like Covid to drinking deaths.

You're right, it's hard to compare: because alcohol kills more people than this particular virus.

HIV/AIDS deaths worldwide are about the same as covid deaths, by the way. Should we legislate to ban sexual activity outside marriage? Car accidents kill 1.35 million people worldwide each year, should we ban all cars?

There are many deadly problems in the world. We don't put entire states or countries under house arrest for all of them, nor should we for this. We make sensible restrictions which we can live with for years, or even decades, which is what we should do for this.

Covid is a serious problem, and should be dealt with. But the solution of "lock everything down!" is one which creates more problems than it solves. And again, other countries have shown it's not necessary: Taiwan, South Korea and Japan have had few restrictions and few cases. Because they have good systems of testing, treating and tracing. We should give them large sums of cash to send teams over, and do exactly what they tell us to do. We need to set aside the anglosphere cultural arrogance and learn from others.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2020, 01:56:51 AM by Kyle Schuant »

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3531 on: August 09, 2020, 08:19:22 PM »
Alcohol isn't the issue per se. It's the free intermingling and buying of alcohol in an unrestricted fashion at liquor stores.

I can't see why in-person attendance to buy alcohol is freely allowed and unrestricted but not, say, buying garden supplies. Or hiking. Not that there's any great importance to buying garden supplies or going hiking. But I have a lot more sanguine attitude to the latter than buying alcohol. No one could say it's a necessity.
Honestly I think they leave the liquor stores (and marijuana shops here) open to placate / medicate people and keep them in order.

In some ways I have done the same for ourselves by buying some treats to keep around the house and have replicated some of the meals we would have out to ease our transition to the new normal.

As they say fat, dumb and happy

Or drunk, stoned and happy LOL


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah, I get the reasoning.

But it seems like a reversal of priorities or, at best, a perverse incentive.

Regular, law abiding citizens are being forced to weather huge disruptions (e.g. all retail employees being forced to stop work,  by government mandate) and yet alcoholics and drug users are subject to nil restrictions at all.

It's sort of like saying, okay, you well behaved, high functioning retail workers: sacrifice your jobs for 6-10 weeks. We're going to stop you from going into work at a department store and we know you're not going to riot or beat up your wives because of it, so make the sacrifice. Meanwhile, you alcoholics, enjoy not having any restrictions. We wouldn't want you to beat up your wives because you can't go in person to the liquor store to buy liquor. (Even though you can order liquor online which I would have thought would have been the easy solution...)

Davnasty

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3532 on: August 09, 2020, 08:20:48 PM »
Sorry, while I have alcoholics in my family I do not need to worry about them infecting me with alcoholism.
You do if they're your parents.

Genetics are not an infection.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3533 on: August 09, 2020, 08:59:06 PM »
Our liquor stores are open and have the same rules as grocery stores. So, arrows on the floor, cashiers with plexiglass, limited numbers.  Masks are mandated for all indoor places, not just grocery and liquor and beer stores.  Ontario only recently loosened up about wine in grocery stores.

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3534 on: August 09, 2020, 11:47:37 PM »
In unrelated news - ICU usage in Texas, SoCal, Arizona and Florida are improving. No one is at early June levels yet, but the current peak has clearly passed (2 weeks continuous decline). For reference, about 33% of icu patients in Houston are covid-19 admissions (admitted for covid-19, not incidentally found to have it). At the peak about 50% were. They are still >100% normal capacity, but at least that’s downtrending from 130%.

The effect of influenza + covid is concerning and we are bracing for another hit in the fall.

Randomized trials have started on or ahead of schedule, so there’s a good chance of a vaccine by early 2021. I think it’ll be spring before sufficient numbers of people are vaccinated in the US (which will lag the others).

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3535 on: August 09, 2020, 11:50:28 PM »
Why would the US lag the others, when they’ve been busy cornering the market?

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3536 on: August 10, 2020, 12:02:11 AM »
Why would the US lag the others, when they’ve been busy cornering the market?

The most promising of these vaccines and likely first to production is the UK one, which will be preferentially distributed to the UK first. Also, the US population is much larger, so total vaccines needed to get to herd immunity is more. Also, our government is a disaster at public health. Thus, we will lag in effective coverage of the population.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3537 on: August 10, 2020, 12:22:05 AM »
Why would the US lag the others, when they’ve been busy cornering the market?

The most promising of these vaccines and likely first to production is the UK one, which will be preferentially distributed to the UK first. Also, the US population is much larger, so total vaccines needed to get to herd immunity is more. Also, our government is a disaster at public health. Thus, we will lag in effective coverage of the population.

I think whomever discovers the vaccine first will make it whatever the vaccine version of shareware is. Scientists all over the world have been sharing information. Unless it's the USA. The USA would try to profit on it.

alsoknownasDean

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3538 on: August 10, 2020, 12:42:51 AM »
It seems that cases here are starting to decline after the introduction of Stage 4, but early days yet. Today was the lowest number of new cases in 12 days (322 new cases, peaked at over 700 last week), and the number of recoveries per day isn't far off the number of new cases. Let's see how things are in 2-3 weeks.

Unless it's the USA. The USA would try to profit on it.

If it's first discovered in the USA they'll charge $2,500 per shot if it isn't through insurance and $25,000 if it is.

gooki

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3539 on: August 10, 2020, 01:07:16 AM »
We were unwilling to learn from success. This, unfortunately, is a trait of the Anglosphere - we know best, can't possibly learn from those foreign buggers. America's the worst example of it, but the UK and Australia do it too.

I think it’s more of a trait of having muppets running these countries.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3540 on: August 10, 2020, 02:04:49 AM »
It seems that cases here are starting to decline after the introduction of Stage 4, but early days yet.
It's 3-4 weeks after the introduction of Stage 3, and 2 weeks after the mandating of masks - it's only one week into stage 4.

The case reductions we're seeing are partly a result of stage 3 and masks, stage 4's not had a chance to show results yet, which we'll see in a week.

The other factor is... If you (for the sake of argument) get 2-3 infections in 10 nursing homes with 100 residents and 50 staff each, then once you infect half the residents and staff (750 people) and isolate them, new infections will slow down. So that's not necessarily a reflection of the brilliance of the measures you've taken, but of running out of victims.

I think it’s more of a trait of having muppets running these countries.
And we elected the muppets, so those muppets are a reflection of us, culturally. Not always a reflection of the best of us, of course, but a reflection of us nonetheless.

Culturally, the anglosphere tends to cultural and technological arrogance: we don't like learning from non-english speaking countries, particularly Asian or African ones. We know from resume tests that people with Asian and African names are less likely to get job interviews, if this applies in people hiring an IT guy or accountant, how much more so in government departments or large corporations adopting entire systems?

Anette

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3541 on: August 10, 2020, 02:06:05 AM »
death rate, per case, shouldn't matter. it should be death rate per capita.

Well, death rate per infection is really what matters.  Case data doesn't give us that.

Death Rate per infection is an illusion as you are not going to be able to know how many infections there are. You mostly get the infected with symptoms and this is one of the reasons why numbers vary  wildy in different countries. Testing i("healthy" people) is at very different levels still.

It also seems hard to tell from the information you get in media what is really happening in other countries(or your own) When I read things about how Germany has handled this so great ...
I am a nurse and where I work we didn't get masks until April ( before that they only had few and locked them all away to be distributed in case!!!)
Grocery, garden and hardware stores were open all the time and you didn't have to wear a mask visiting them until end of April. Numbers of visitors were limited though. Most people I know continued going to work like normal, some were able/supposed to work from home. You were not allowed to get together with people from other households in your free time but at work you obviously were...
Now almost everything seems back to normal Except some ( mostly state organisations/offices)  which seemingly are trying to hold on to the "we are sorry but we can't work due to covid" attitude as long as possible.
Examples: While swimming pools are open, physical therapies , hair dressers and massages are available again I can't write a paper at the university in the beginning of September. It is not happening because of covid! Also I can't get an in person appointment for my daughter at the workers office due to covid
Only telephone conference which you have to wait for an appointment for much longer than usual ( this being the department that gives teenagers advice how to proceed after school, not the unemployment benefits section)

Anyway, here in Germany politicians debated in the beginning of April whether to go back to " normal" life and  just put restrictions on place for the elderly and vulnerable but they came to the conclusion they couldn't do it because that would be discrimination. So it didn't happen although even then appeared the right path.
Also might not have gone over well with other countries all over the world whom we are trading with. Our lockdown in March started right after the US threatened not to import goods from Europe because we are handling Vivid so badly, after all.

former player

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3542 on: August 10, 2020, 02:39:20 AM »
Why would the US lag the others, when they’ve been busy cornering the market?

The most promising of these vaccines and likely first to production is the UK one, which will be preferentially distributed to the UK first. Also, the US population is much larger, so total vaccines needed to get to herd immunity is more. Also, our government is a disaster at public health. Thus, we will lag in effective coverage of the population.

I think whomever discovers the vaccine first will make it whatever the vaccine version of shareware is. Scientists all over the world have been sharing information. Unless it's the USA. The USA would try to profit on it.
As I understand it the problem of delays is not particularly in making the vaccine but in bottling and distributing.  That's why governments are paying for ten of millions of doses to be manufactured and bottled before the outcome of Stage 3 trials is known - it's a big gamble but if the vaccine passes the trial it will pay off in having immediate widespread availability.

The Oxford Group vaccine has been bought by the UK government in sufficient quantities for vaccinations in the UK to start in November 2020 with the rest of the population from January 2021 - provided it works and is safe, of course.  But I think some 2020 availabiity has been bought by the USA.   Astra Zeneca, who are the manufacturing partner for the Oxford group who have developed the vaccine, are manufacturing at cost.

https://www.ovg.ox.ac.uk/news/new-study-reveals-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-produces-strong-immune-response

I'm a red panda

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3543 on: August 10, 2020, 06:34:53 AM »
Why would the US lag the others, when they’ve been busy cornering the market?

Something like 30% of people in the US have said they won't get the vaccine even if it's free. And it won't be.  Plus we have no way to mass distribute a vaccine like this.  A huge portion of the country has no consistent access to medical care.

The US can't even get people to vaccinate for things that are proven to be safe. This is something new and rushed.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3544 on: August 10, 2020, 06:59:44 AM »
Quote
Plus we have no way to mass distribute a vaccine like this

We do. We’ve done it before during H1N1 flu and that was (fairly) recent.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2020, 07:02:06 AM by MudPuppy »

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3545 on: August 10, 2020, 07:39:43 AM »
Why would the US lag the others, when they’ve been busy cornering the market?

Something like 30% of people in the US have said they won't get the vaccine even if it's free. And it won't be. Plus we have no way to mass distribute a vaccine like this.  A huge portion of the country has no consistent access to medical care.

The US can't even get people to vaccinate for things that are proven to be safe. This is something new and rushed.

What makes you think that a covid vaccine won't be free to people who choose to get it?

I'm a red panda

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3546 on: August 10, 2020, 07:42:07 AM »
Why would the US lag the others, when they’ve been busy cornering the market?

Something like 30% of people in the US have said they won't get the vaccine even if it's free. And it won't be. Plus we have no way to mass distribute a vaccine like this.  A huge portion of the country has no consistent access to medical care.

The US can't even get people to vaccinate for things that are proven to be safe. This is something new and rushed.

What makes you think that a covid vaccine won't be free to people who choose to get it?

Because healthcare in the US is never free.  There is NOTHING in our health system right now that everyone can access free.  Why would we think this will be?  It might be covered by insurance, but that depends on you having insurance.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3547 on: August 10, 2020, 08:34:06 AM »
Why would the US lag the others, when they’ve been busy cornering the market?

Something like 30% of people in the US have said they won't get the vaccine even if it's free. And it won't be. Plus we have no way to mass distribute a vaccine like this.  A huge portion of the country has no consistent access to medical care.

The US can't even get people to vaccinate for things that are proven to be safe. This is something new and rushed.

What makes you think that a covid vaccine won't be free to people who choose to get it?

Because healthcare in the US is never free.  There is NOTHING in our health system right now that everyone can access free.  Why would we think this will be? It might be covered by insurance, but that depends on you having insurance.

Right now, Rite Aid is offering free Covid-19 tests. When they are available, schools and employers will probably offer free vaccinations. People who don't work or attend school will probably be able to get a free covid vaccination at places like Rite Aid, CVS, etc. Obviously, nothing is actually free. Someone will be paying for it, i.e., US taxpayers, but I doubt that any individual in the US will have to pay out of pocket for a Covid-19 vaccination.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3548 on: August 10, 2020, 08:59:11 AM »
We can do the vaccinations if they are available.  We already run flu vaccination clinics at the start of flu season, plus most pharmacies will do walk-in flu vaccination during flu season.  Seniors residences often do them in-house.  You just have to show your health care card.  So the mechanisms are in place, we just need the vaccine.

And yes it will cost our government to pay for it, but it is a lot less expensive than the Covid health care costs.  Just like my former regional health unit subsidizes dog/cat rabies vaccination at the local vets clinics once a year.  It is cost effective.

I'm a red panda

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3549 on: August 10, 2020, 09:10:11 AM »
Why would the US lag the others, when they’ve been busy cornering the market?

Something like 30% of people in the US have said they won't get the vaccine even if it's free. And it won't be. Plus we have no way to mass distribute a vaccine like this.  A huge portion of the country has no consistent access to medical care.

The US can't even get people to vaccinate for things that are proven to be safe. This is something new and rushed.

What makes you think that a covid vaccine won't be free to people who choose to get it?

Because healthcare in the US is never free.  There is NOTHING in our health system right now that everyone can access free.  Why would we think this will be? It might be covered by insurance, but that depends on you having insurance.

Right now, Rite Aid is offering free Covid-19 tests. When they are available, schools and employers will probably offer free vaccinations. People who don't work or attend school will probably be able to get a free covid vaccination at places like Rite Aid, CVS, etc. Obviously, nothing is actually free. Someone will be paying for it, i.e., US taxpayers, but I doubt that any individual in the US will have to pay out of pocket for a Covid-19 vaccination.

I don't live near a rite-aid, so I would not be able to access this free test.  I had to get covid testing and had to pay for a doctor's appt for it. The test was fully covered by my insurance.
My employer offers "free" flu shots- but only if you have their insurance, then they waive the copay. If you have insurance through elsewhere, you can't get a "free" flu shot, you have to pay your copay.  Our grocery stores, CVS, Walgreens, all charge for flu vaccines (though typically insurance covers it- but if you don't have insurance...), none are "free".

Who is covering the rite-aid tests if you don't have insurance? Is rite aid paying for this? Do they have a government grant? 
I have a number of friends who are without insurance due to job loss, ineligibility for an exchange in our state, and inability to pay for COBRA (which is insanity)- who would cover this vaccine for them?