Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 248219 times)

kenmoremmm

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3200 on: July 23, 2020, 01:31:45 PM »
i always like these unherd videos:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xh9wso6bEAc

the logic presented by anders tengell is what i believe in the long term.

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3201 on: July 23, 2020, 03:23:00 PM »
It's amazing what you can do if you have a society of responsible, well educated adults with a common purpose.


Kris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3202 on: July 23, 2020, 03:49:19 PM »
It's amazing what you can do if you have a society of responsible, well educated adults with a common purpose.

Ha! Well, count us out, then...

wenchsenior

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3203 on: July 23, 2020, 04:55:59 PM »
It's amazing what you can do if you have a society of responsible, well educated adults with a common purpose.

Ha! Well, count us out, then...

Had a dental cleaning yesterday. I'm in TX and we are under mask mandates here.  There were signs requesting masking on the dentist lobby door and at the check-out desk.  Behind the check out desk, only the woman actually talking to me was wearing her mask, which she promptly took off as soon as I took a few steps away.  The other 3 women behind the desks wore none.

During the cleaning, the techs and hygienists and dentist wore masks, but of course they ALWAYS wear masks at that time, including pre-pandemic.  When I walked back out to check out (needless to say, wearing my mask), none of the 4 admin women even bothered to pretend to reach for their masks. It was like, once I was past check-in, even the slightest attempt to keep up appearances didn't matter to them.

There were two other people in the waiting room while I was there. One was a dude who walked in wearing the mask, then ostentatiously took it off and proceeded to hang out in the common lobby without it during his entire wait. No one on staff said anything, but then, they were not abiding by the rules either, so...

This is a professional health-care office!  Truly astonishing.  Seriously, I have lived in a lot of places, and Texas is special brand of stupid.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2020, 05:02:21 PM by wenchsenior »

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3204 on: July 23, 2020, 05:29:58 PM »
It's amazing what you can do if you have a society of responsible, well educated adults with a common purpose.

Ha! Well, count us out, then...

Had a dental cleaning yesterday. I'm in TX and we are under mask mandates here.  There were signs requesting masking on the dentist lobby door and at the check-out desk.  Behind the check out desk, only the woman actually talking to me was wearing her mask, which she promptly took off as soon as I took a few steps away.  The other 3 women behind the desks wore none.

During the cleaning, the techs and hygienists and dentist wore masks, but of course they ALWAYS wear masks at that time, including pre-pandemic.  When I walked back out to check out (needless to say, wearing my mask), none of the 4 admin women even bothered to pretend to reach for their masks. It was like, once I was past check-in, even the slightest attempt to keep up appearances didn't matter to them.

There were two other people in the waiting room while I was there. One was a dude who walked in wearing the mask, then ostentatiously took it off and proceeded to hang out in the common lobby without it during his entire wait. No one on staff said anything, but then, they were not abiding by the rules either, so...

This is a professional health-care office!  Truly astonishing.  Seriously, I have lived in a lot of places, and Texas is special brand of stupid.

I'd be looking for another dentist and telling them why I was leaving. Assuming you could find another office that actually cares.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3205 on: July 23, 2020, 06:33:23 PM »

I was responding "lost_in_the_endless_aisle"s new conspiracy theory by pointing out states that Cuomo does not control.



Gotcha.  Think he was referring to NY's decision to send back patients to nursing homes, which obviously was disastrous and cost untold numbers of deaths in NYC.  They corrected the issue but the severe damage was already done.  I don't think he's necessarily being political by pointing this out, this  is absolutely a massive mistake by Cuomo.  We should be able to point out errors regardless of political affiliation.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2020, 06:37:04 PM by HBFIRE »

ctuser1

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3206 on: July 23, 2020, 06:59:44 PM »

I was responding "lost_in_the_endless_aisle"s new conspiracy theory by pointing out states that Cuomo does not control.



Gotcha.  Think he was referring to NY's decision to send back patients to nursing homes, which obviously was disastrous and cost untold numbers of deaths in NYC.  They corrected the issue but the severe damage was already done.  I don't think he's necessarily being political by pointing this out, this  is absolutely a massive mistake by Cuomo.  We should be able to point out errors regardless of political affiliation.

Very true. I would expect this to be debated in a matured fashion in any democracy.

Just like NY State Democrats are apparently planning to to: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/23/nyregion/nursing-homes-deaths-cuomo.html

There are two sides to the story, like you would expect in many cases. e.g. NY health department claims all patients sent back to nursing homes were after they stopped being infectious: https://health.ny.gov/press/releases/2020/docs/nh_factors_report.pdf

It is possible that:
1. The NY health department are accurate and this entire controversy was a red herring. All the nursing home deaths were indeed driven by infected and asymptomatic health workers.
2. There were mistakes made. Quite possible given not a whole lot was known by the virus at that time, AND people were acting in an emergency.
    2.A. Mistakes were made by medical professionals and Cuomo just followed their suggestions.
    2.B. Cuomo exercised improper influence on the decision when he had no training/background and hence no business deciding this on his own.
3. There were bad faith political decisions knowingly endangering people's lives.


There is no way to definitively know which category it falls into. If I see/hear Cuomo obstructing/blocking any such inquiry by the legislature - then I'd strongly suspect it is case #3. For now, it seems to me to either be #1, #2A or #2B.

Please let me know if you know anything better that clearly indicates the possibility of the possibility #3.

Compare this to the sunbelt states, where there is no confusion that people's lives are being sacrificed for political ideology. i.e. it IS #3 all the way. When Faux news and their minions (like our friend I responded to) scream "cuomovirus" about a confusing situation, and then give a pass to DeSantis and others, the they are being partisan hacks.

Quacks like a duck and walks like a duck and all that....

« Last Edit: July 23, 2020, 07:02:03 PM by ctuser1 »

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3207 on: July 23, 2020, 07:37:21 PM »

I was responding "lost_in_the_endless_aisle"s new conspiracy theory by pointing out states that Cuomo does not control.



Gotcha.  Think he was referring to NY's decision to send back patients to nursing homes, which obviously was disastrous and cost untold numbers of deaths in NYC.  They corrected the issue but the severe damage was already done.  I don't think he's necessarily being political by pointing this out, this  is absolutely a massive mistake by Cuomo.  We should be able to point out errors regardless of political affiliation.

Very true. I would expect this to be debated in a matured fashion in any democracy.

Just like NY State Democrats are apparently planning to to: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/23/nyregion/nursing-homes-deaths-cuomo.html

There are two sides to the story, like you would expect in many cases. e.g. NY health department claims all patients sent back to nursing homes were after they stopped being infectious: https://health.ny.gov/press/releases/2020/docs/nh_factors_report.pdf

It is possible that:
1. The NY health department are accurate and this entire controversy was a red herring. All the nursing home deaths were indeed driven by infected and asymptomatic health workers.
2. There were mistakes made. Quite possible given not a whole lot was known by the virus at that time, AND people were acting in an emergency.
    2.A. Mistakes were made by medical professionals and Cuomo just followed their suggestions.
    2.B. Cuomo exercised improper influence on the decision when he had no training/background and hence no business deciding this on his own.
3. There were bad faith political decisions knowingly endangering people's lives.


There is no way to definitively know which category it falls into. If I see/hear Cuomo obstructing/blocking any such inquiry by the legislature - then I'd strongly suspect it is case #3. For now, it seems to me to either be #1, #2A or #2B.

Please let me know if you know anything better that clearly indicates the possibility of the possibility #3.

Compare this to the sunbelt states, where there is no confusion that people's lives are being sacrificed for political ideology. i.e. it IS #3 all the way. When Faux news and their minions (like our friend I responded to) scream "cuomovirus" about a confusing situation, and then give a pass to DeSantis and others, the they are being partisan hacks.

Quacks like a duck and walks like a duck and all that....
I personally think 2A to be the most likely scenario (I don't think #3 is plausible since I don't think Cuomo is a super-villain even though his thoughtless executive order on restaurants serving alcohol has inspired something so insipid as Cuomo Chips -- let's see how many different bar foods Cuomo decrees to be "unsubstantial" before he gives up!). I'm sorry I haven't made my list down all of the governors yet but how about this to better indicate my non-partisan nature: DieSantis.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3208 on: July 23, 2020, 08:49:06 PM »
Has anyone noticed people's judgment being severely impacted since covid/lockdown?  I know several examples in my personal circles where people seem to have lost good judgment -- sometimes to the extreme.  There seems to be significant psychological impact that I would have never expected.

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3209 on: July 23, 2020, 08:55:37 PM »
I think this was poor planning on NY's part at the government level. Patients who were treated for COVID at a hospital should have been transferred to one of the temporary hospitals, or designated COVID-19 nursing homes as was done in other states. This, along with Cuomo and De Blasio's poo-pooing public health officials regarding COVID-19 transmission risks ("we're open for business") is part of their failures to thoughtfully deal with the crisis. I know some media outlets were fawning over Cuomo because our dumpster fire of a federal government was doing the worst possible job in management during the height of the spring crisis, but he was basically covering up a mess he helped create by lacking decisiveness in shutting the state (or at least NYC) down early.

That being said, nursing home residents were already at high risk of death from COVID-19, and the 18% of total deaths from nursing homes is not out of line with other states' reports.

ctuser1

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3210 on: July 24, 2020, 05:05:57 AM »
I think this was poor planning on NY's part at the government level. Patients who were treated for COVID at a hospital should have been transferred to one of the temporary hospitals, or designated COVID-19 nursing homes as was done in other states. This, along with Cuomo and De Blasio's poo-pooing public health officials regarding COVID-19 transmission risks ("we're open for business") is part of their failures to thoughtfully deal with the crisis.

Yupp. If you see my decision flowchart a few posts above, I suspect that the situation was 2B - that Cuomo was initially overriding medical professional's suggestions as to how serious the pandemic was. I have seen a report/study/something somewhere (can't find it now), that NYC's infection/death curve would have been half as high had the state/city been locked down a week earlier, and some fraction if locked down a month earlier.
It IS "hindsght 20/20" when we levy these criticisms today. But, then, taking these decisions correctly through foggy data is the sole purpose of the existence of leaders. Cuomo definitely fell short of what he *could* have done.

That being said, nursing home residents were already at high risk of death from COVID-19, and the 18% of total deaths from nursing homes is not out of line with other states' reports.
This is exactly my point. This specific criticism does not seem to have contributed anything to the overall crisis or death numbers.

Cuomo's failure to shut down NY State a week or more earlier when virologists were calling for it was a real failure with real costs (in # of human lives). Yet, the Faux news won't talk about it because that line of attack is inconvenient for their political posture and they are not interested in any good faith discussion(s).

And then they will pick up the silliest and stupidest conspiracy theories that, from all empirical evidence, did not matter much.

But, they successfully used Benghazi to paint Hillary Clinton to a corner, so I guess they don't really need any "real issues" to start shouting.

jrhampt

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3211 on: July 24, 2020, 07:43:10 AM »
It's amazing what you can do if you have a society of responsible, well educated adults with a common purpose.

Ha! Well, count us out, then...

Had a dental cleaning yesterday. I'm in TX and we are under mask mandates here.  There were signs requesting masking on the dentist lobby door and at the check-out desk.  Behind the check out desk, only the woman actually talking to me was wearing her mask, which she promptly took off as soon as I took a few steps away.  The other 3 women behind the desks wore none.

During the cleaning, the techs and hygienists and dentist wore masks, but of course they ALWAYS wear masks at that time, including pre-pandemic.  When I walked back out to check out (needless to say, wearing my mask), none of the 4 admin women even bothered to pretend to reach for their masks. It was like, once I was past check-in, even the slightest attempt to keep up appearances didn't matter to them.

There were two other people in the waiting room while I was there. One was a dude who walked in wearing the mask, then ostentatiously took it off and proceeded to hang out in the common lobby without it during his entire wait. No one on staff said anything, but then, they were not abiding by the rules either, so...

This is a professional health-care office!  Truly astonishing.  Seriously, I have lived in a lot of places, and Texas is special brand of stupid.

I'd be looking for another dentist and telling them why I was leaving. Assuming you could find another office that actually cares.

Definitely.  This is absolutely unacceptable behavior in a healthcare setting.   I went to a medical appointment a month or so back where the receptionists were both wearing their masks on their chins (all other patients and staff were wearing them properly), so I called the corporate office  immediately after I left to compliment them overall on their job of complying with the mask mandate, but to note specifically that their front desk staff needed some work - their compliance office said they would address it the same day. 

wenchsenior

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3212 on: July 24, 2020, 08:27:16 AM »
It's amazing what you can do if you have a society of responsible, well educated adults with a common purpose.

Ha! Well, count us out, then...

Had a dental cleaning yesterday. I'm in TX and we are under mask mandates here.  There were signs requesting masking on the dentist lobby door and at the check-out desk.  Behind the check out desk, only the woman actually talking to me was wearing her mask, which she promptly took off as soon as I took a few steps away.  The other 3 women behind the desks wore none.

During the cleaning, the techs and hygienists and dentist wore masks, but of course they ALWAYS wear masks at that time, including pre-pandemic.  When I walked back out to check out (needless to say, wearing my mask), none of the 4 admin women even bothered to pretend to reach for their masks. It was like, once I was past check-in, even the slightest attempt to keep up appearances didn't matter to them.

There were two other people in the waiting room while I was there. One was a dude who walked in wearing the mask, then ostentatiously took it off and proceeded to hang out in the common lobby without it during his entire wait. No one on staff said anything, but then, they were not abiding by the rules either, so...

This is a professional health-care office!  Truly astonishing.  Seriously, I have lived in a lot of places, and Texas is special brand of stupid.

I'd be looking for another dentist and telling them why I was leaving. Assuming you could find another office that actually cares.

Definitely.  This is absolutely unacceptable behavior in a healthcare setting.   I went to a medical appointment a month or so back where the receptionists were both wearing their masks on their chins (all other patients and staff were wearing them properly), so I called the corporate office  immediately after I left to compliment them overall on their job of complying with the mask mandate, but to note specifically that their front desk staff needed some work - their compliance office said they would address it the same day.

I left feedback on their follow up email form.  It's annoying b/c this dentist has been great, teethwise, and it's practically walking distance from my house.  I have a suspicion that I'd encounter the same thing in most other dentists (including the one I used previous to this).  As I noted, this town is mostly super religious Baptists, full of Trump supporters, and has been very resistant to mask-wearing (presumably b/c Jesus will protect the righteous or something). 


Side note:  Most businesses in this city have crucifixes or religious symbols up on their doors and in their lobbies here, to advertise their religiosity.  I've regularly had doctors at the University Medical Center (secular) ask to 'pray with me for God's help with my medical complaint' during medical appointments.  My mom's eye doctor asked to pray with her prior to her cataract surgery (she openly scoffed at him, which I thought was unwise given she was about to go under the laser, but it was fine).

Nearly all the dentists in town are 'local boys' so I wonder if it would be that different anywhere else in town.


OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3213 on: July 24, 2020, 09:50:01 AM »
It's amazing what you can do if you have a society of responsible, well educated adults with a common purpose.

Ha! Well, count us out, then...

Had a dental cleaning yesterday. I'm in TX and we are under mask mandates here.  There were signs requesting masking on the dentist lobby door and at the check-out desk.  Behind the check out desk, only the woman actually talking to me was wearing her mask, which she promptly took off as soon as I took a few steps away.  The other 3 women behind the desks wore none.

During the cleaning, the techs and hygienists and dentist wore masks, but of course they ALWAYS wear masks at that time, including pre-pandemic.  When I walked back out to check out (needless to say, wearing my mask), none of the 4 admin women even bothered to pretend to reach for their masks. It was like, once I was past check-in, even the slightest attempt to keep up appearances didn't matter to them.

There were two other people in the waiting room while I was there. One was a dude who walked in wearing the mask, then ostentatiously took it off and proceeded to hang out in the common lobby without it during his entire wait. No one on staff said anything, but then, they were not abiding by the rules either, so...

This is a professional health-care office!  Truly astonishing.  Seriously, I have lived in a lot of places, and Texas is special brand of stupid.

I'd be looking for another dentist and telling them why I was leaving. Assuming you could find another office that actually cares.

Definitely.  This is absolutely unacceptable behavior in a healthcare setting.   I went to a medical appointment a month or so back where the receptionists were both wearing their masks on their chins (all other patients and staff were wearing them properly), so I called the corporate office  immediately after I left to compliment them overall on their job of complying with the mask mandate, but to note specifically that their front desk staff needed some work - their compliance office said they would address it the same day.

I left feedback on their follow up email form.  It's annoying b/c this dentist has been great, teethwise, and it's practically walking distance from my house.  I have a suspicion that I'd encounter the same thing in most other dentists (including the one I used previous to this).  As I noted, this town is mostly super religious Baptists, full of Trump supporters, and has been very resistant to mask-wearing (presumably b/c Jesus will protect the righteous or something). 


Side note:  Most businesses in this city have crucifixes or religious symbols up on their doors and in their lobbies here, to advertise their religiosity.  I've regularly had doctors at the University Medical Center (secular) ask to 'pray with me for God's help with my medical complaint' during medical appointments.  My mom's eye doctor asked to pray with her prior to her cataract surgery (she openly scoffed at him, which I thought was unwise given she was about to go under the laser, but it was fine).

Nearly all the dentists in town are 'local boys' so I wonder if it would be that different anywhere else in town.

Yikes. I just got off the phone with my dentist's office. They needed to do the COVID prescreening interview and run through the new safety requirements before our appointments on Monday.

If it's cultural, you're probably right that lax safety and "Jesus saves" policy would be the same anywhere else in your area. I'm sorry. That sucks.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3214 on: July 25, 2020, 12:12:55 AM »
Has anyone noticed people's judgment being severely impacted since covid/lockdown?  I know several examples in my personal circles where people seem to have lost good judgment -- sometimes to the extreme.  There seems to be significant psychological impact that I would have never expected.
Yes. I've seen it before in the gym, and also in other jobs where people had the chance to do something morally dubious but get money from it.


Put a heavy weight on a person's back or a wad of cash in front of their face and you find out who they really are.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3215 on: July 25, 2020, 05:01:06 AM »
Has anyone noticed people's judgment being severely impacted since covid/lockdown?  I know several examples in my personal circles where people seem to have lost good judgment -- sometimes to the extreme.  There seems to be significant psychological impact that I would have never expected.

Recently, I've seen good people I've known for 20+ years say and do things I never would've expected. I just keep reminding myself that it's because of the virus. People aren't their normal selves.

Just Joe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3216 on: July 27, 2020, 08:29:44 AM »
Has anyone noticed people's judgment being severely impacted since covid/lockdown?  I know several examples in my personal circles where people seem to have lost good judgment -- sometimes to the extreme.  There seems to be significant psychological impact that I would have never expected.

Yes out of town family who are very big Trump believers were justifying their non-mask wearing to us. The relatives had anecdotes about a testing technician who admitted he was not well trained and someone who possibly received a wrong number call from COVID results testing which they never had - that told them they were positive. Plus other anecdotes.

Anyhow these stories have greater validity to them than anything the big brain medical experts have recommended, more validity that 146,000+ dead, etc. etc. Of course anything that they don't like is fake news as their leader has demonstrated over and over.

DW and I talked at length on the way home about how different this pandemic would have been if we'd had a president who let the experts lead the pandemic and economic strategies rather than muddying up the conversations with his BS. Just leading by example wearing a mask and encouraging everyone to follow suit would have made a big difference.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3217 on: July 27, 2020, 09:56:16 AM »
Has anyone noticed people's judgment being severely impacted since covid/lockdown?  I know several examples in my personal circles where people seem to have lost good judgment -- sometimes to the extreme.  There seems to be significant psychological impact that I would have never expected.

Yes out of town family who are very big Trump believers were justifying their non-mask wearing to us. The relatives had anecdotes about a testing technician who admitted he was not well trained and someone who possibly received a wrong number call from COVID results testing which they never had - that told them they were positive. Plus other anecdotes.

Anyhow these stories have greater validity to them than anything the big brain medical experts have recommended, more validity that 146,000+ dead, etc. etc. Of course anything that they don't like is fake news as their leader has demonstrated over and over.

DW and I talked at length on the way home about how different this pandemic would have been if we'd had a president who let the experts lead the pandemic and economic strategies rather than muddying up the conversations with his BS. Just leading by example wearing a mask and encouraging everyone to follow suit would have made a big difference.

New Zealand is keeping Jacinda and we are keeping Justin, so you will have to produce your own sensible leaders.  Sorry.

Rosy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3218 on: July 27, 2020, 11:00:25 AM »
SNIP
That being said, nursing home residents were already at high risk of death from COVID-19, and the 18% of total deaths from nursing homes is not out of line with other states' reports.

Absolutely THIS ^^^

DieSantis in Florida ---- a well deserved renaming for our governor DeSantis.

boy_bye

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3219 on: July 27, 2020, 01:09:56 PM »
Has anyone noticed people's judgment being severely impacted since covid/lockdown?  I know several examples in my personal circles where people seem to have lost good judgment -- sometimes to the extreme.  There seems to be significant psychological impact that I would have never expected.

Yes out of town family who are very big Trump believers were justifying their non-mask wearing to us. The relatives had anecdotes about a testing technician who admitted he was not well trained and someone who possibly received a wrong number call from COVID results testing which they never had - that told them they were positive. Plus other anecdotes.

Anyhow these stories have greater validity to them than anything the big brain medical experts have recommended, more validity that 146,000+ dead, etc. etc. Of course anything that they don't like is fake news as their leader has demonstrated over and over.

DW and I talked at length on the way home about how different this pandemic would have been if we'd had a president who let the experts lead the pandemic and economic strategies rather than muddying up the conversations with his BS. Just leading by example wearing a mask and encouraging everyone to follow suit would have made a big difference.

Elections: they are all fun and games until we remember that the presidency is serious job that should probably be done by a serious person.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3220 on: July 27, 2020, 08:04:57 PM »
Internal advice is that Victoria's second wave has peaked and is on the downturn. Although it was only yesterday that we set a record for daily cases.

What can we learn from dealing with the pandemic? I would suggest that next time around, when the zombie apocalypse hits and we run out of shotgun shells, we focus on more targeted lockdowns. At the start, go harder on incoming travellers (sounds really obvious now but this was not done 5 months ago). Mandatory hotel quarantines with police guards, not untrained casual security staff.

Lock down high risk locations (tenements, prisons, aged care homes) hard and early. Prohibit visitors. Have a mechanism for casual staff working at multiple employers to get up to a few weeks of replacement pay so that they can be forced to give up their non-primary work. Shut down certain high risk industries as far as practicable. Ban extended family gatherings and indoor celebrations (or outdoor celebrations involving food sharing) for any reason.

I think this time around, we tried to apply a moderate lockdown to 80% of the population. In truth, a hard lockdown on 20% of the population would probably suffice. The infection mechanism follows the 80/20 rule.

alsoknownasDean

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3221 on: July 28, 2020, 01:01:21 AM »
Internal advice is that Victoria's second wave has peaked and is on the downturn. Although it was only yesterday that we set a record for daily cases.

I think this time around, we tried to apply a moderate lockdown to 80% of the population. In truth, a hard lockdown on 20% of the population would probably suffice. The infection mechanism follows the 80/20 rule.

I guess the issue is that many of the cases are appearing in workplaces which would be considered essential. Aged care being an obvious one. Food processing as well (although in desperate situations said food items can be shipped from interstate).

I'm just glad that masks haven't become a party political thing here (at least not with ALP or Coalition voters), and when I went for a walk on Saturday, there was ~99% compliance with the mask order.

former player

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3222 on: July 28, 2020, 02:42:43 AM »
What can we learn from dealing with the pandemic? I would suggest that next time around, when the zombie apocalypse hits and we run out of shotgun shells, we focus on more targeted lockdowns. At the start, go harder on incoming travellers (sounds really obvious now but this was not done 5 months ago). Mandatory hotel quarantines with police guards, not untrained casual security staff.

Lock down high risk locations (tenements, prisons, aged care homes) hard and early. Prohibit visitors. Have a mechanism for casual staff working at multiple employers to get up to a few weeks of replacement pay so that they can be forced to give up their non-primary work. Shut down certain high risk industries as far as practicable. Ban extended family gatherings and indoor celebrations (or outdoor celebrations involving food sharing) for any reason.

I think this time around, we tried to apply a moderate lockdown to 80% of the population. In truth, a hard lockdown on 20% of the population would probably suffice. The infection mechanism follows the 80/20 rule.
This will work excellently well provided the next pandemic is exactly the same as the current one.

Unfortunately it probably won't be.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3223 on: July 28, 2020, 02:47:16 AM »
It won't be, however it's possible there'll be other waves of this one. Let's say we wave a magic wand and it disappears in Australia tomorrow - so we open things up, and at some point a visiting soldier or diplomat from another country goes to the pub and it's all on again.

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3224 on: July 28, 2020, 03:05:43 AM »
I've never really understood this talk about multiple waves of this virus. To me it's pretty obvious that everywhere is still in the first wave and only various measures has kept it in check or made it completely go away - it's not like the virus disappeared by its own due to lots of immunity (at least outside some of the hardest-hit regions), seasonal patterns, mutation or anything similar. If everyone now suddenly went back to living like in February the situation would be exactly the same everywhere as it was in March/April, only adjusted for whatever underlying immunity present in the population.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3225 on: July 28, 2020, 04:29:28 AM »
Wave, surge, whatever you like to call it. Cases go down, cases go up. For whatever reason. That's what we're talking about.

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3226 on: July 28, 2020, 06:07:55 AM »
Internal advice is that Victoria's second wave has peaked and is on the downturn. Although it was only yesterday that we set a record for daily cases.

I think this time around, we tried to apply a moderate lockdown to 80% of the population. In truth, a hard lockdown on 20% of the population would probably suffice. The infection mechanism follows the 80/20 rule.

I guess the issue is that many of the cases are appearing in workplaces which would be considered essential. Aged care being an obvious one. Food processing as well (although in desperate situations said food items can be shipped from interstate).

I'm just glad that masks haven't become a party political thing here (at least not with ALP or Coalition voters), and when I went for a walk on Saturday, there was ~99% compliance with the mask order.

The age care one is interesting. Aged Care Providers subcontract out the workforce, and the subcontractors hire workers for only a couple of shits a week to maintain the facade of the staff being "casual". This means the workers then have to offer their services at multiple centres to do enough shifts to earn a living.

The unions need to win this one. If aged care staff were permanent full time employees at one centre, much of the spread would actually be reduced. But because these staff are generally poor migrant workers, no one seems to give a shit.

dignam

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3227 on: July 28, 2020, 06:19:25 AM »
Recently, I've seen good people I've known for 20+ years say and do things I never would've expected. I just keep reminding myself that it's because of the virus. People aren't their normal selves.

Unfortunately this might be the new normal for a while.  I have noticed some odd behavior as well.

For example, so many people getting puppies when they can't devote the time to raise them.  Who knows what their reasoning is (companionship during the stressful pandemic?), but if you have to post on facebook asking for someone to do basic house training for you, you probably shouldn't be raising a puppy.  It's literally just taking the pup outside to go pee every 30 minutes while it's awake.  And always keeping an eye on it. 

Glad work was flexible with me last year when I got my puppy (which I arranged ahead of time).  Those first few months are vital. 

obstinate

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3228 on: July 28, 2020, 07:55:07 AM »
Has anyone noticed people's judgment being severely impacted since covid/lockdown?  I know several examples in my personal circles where people seem to have lost good judgment -- sometimes to the extreme.  There seems to be significant psychological impact that I would have never expected.
Not sure. What do you have in mind?

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3229 on: July 28, 2020, 09:05:01 AM »
Has anyone noticed people's judgment being severely impacted since covid/lockdown?  I know several examples in my personal circles where people seem to have lost good judgment -- sometimes to the extreme.  There seems to be significant psychological impact that I would have never expected.
Not sure. What do you have in mind?
I do seem to have noticed lately that there seems to be a lot more reports of people reposting bad stuff - racist, anti-semitic, anti-science and so on - as though they have gone off the normal rails of polite social interaction.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3230 on: July 28, 2020, 10:25:07 AM »


Not sure. What do you have in mind?

Nothing specific, but I've seen several instances in my circles of : 1) Making really bad decisions based on poor judgment that I would never expect from that person, and 2) holding opinions on our current situation that don't align with the facts.

It's just an observation, I think stress in general has a real impact on human judgment but this seems to be another level.  In any case, this event has been a learning experience for me about humanity on several levels.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2020, 10:26:42 AM by HBFIRE »

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3231 on: July 28, 2020, 10:31:16 AM »
I think there's lots of evidence that stress, especially chronic stress, impacts decision making ability.

LWYRUP

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3232 on: July 28, 2020, 11:23:40 AM »
I feel like I am seeing more bizarre public freakouts on blogs and stuff.  I guess people are filming more but shouldn't everyone not even be in public to begin with? 

I definitely think the virus / economy / election cycle has a lot to do with it. 

I'm definitely steering far clear of any crowds right now. 

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3233 on: July 29, 2020, 07:11:29 AM »
According to this report, a surveyed sample of US adults believe that 9% of the US population has died from Covid-19 (225 times the confirmed number). The numbers are off the charts for all five countries surveyed (on last page of report).

https://www.kekstcnc.com/media/2793/kekstcnc_research_covid-19_opinion_tracker_wave-4.pdf

ender

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3234 on: July 29, 2020, 07:37:57 AM »
According to this report, a surveyed sample of US adults believe that 9% of the US population has died from Covid-19 (225 times the confirmed number). The numbers are off the charts for all five countries surveyed (on last page of report).

https://www.kekstcnc.com/media/2793/kekstcnc_research_covid-19_opinion_tracker_wave-4.pdf

This doesn't surprise me at all.

Particularly since their questions are unclear, does the question "How many people in your country have died from coronavirus?" mean percentage of the country as a whole? Or of confirmed cases?

Either way, it's been about four months of constant media attention on covid. It's not surprising that people who are less informed, which is probably most people unfortunately, would think covid is considerably more widespread/lethal than it has been so far.


frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3235 on: July 29, 2020, 07:38:56 AM »
I know people are stupid, but that is absolutely mind boggling.  You think something has killed 9% of the entire population, and you can't even be bother to spend 30 seconds to fucking google it and find out the actual numbers?  Do they really think 1 out of every 11 people is dead? Don't they know a large enough sample of people to instantly realize those numbers can't be true?

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3236 on: July 29, 2020, 07:47:23 AM »
My initial thought was a systematic misinterpretation of the question (% of population vs % of cases), but you never know with people, numbers and statistics.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3237 on: July 29, 2020, 07:47:45 AM »
I know people are stupid, but that is absolutely mind boggling.  You think something has killed 9% of the entire population, and you can't even be bother to spend 30 seconds to fucking google it and find out the actual numbers?  Do they really think 1 out of every 11 people is dead? Don't they know a large enough sample of people to instantly realize those numbers can't be true?

A lot of people are bad at math.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3238 on: July 29, 2020, 07:49:10 AM »
11% of Americans say that they will never wear a mask in public.  I bet if 9% of y'all died that would change pretty quickly.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3239 on: July 29, 2020, 07:53:39 AM »
11% of Americans say that they will never wear a mask in public.  I bet if 9% of y'all died that would change pretty quickly.

Thats 89% who would.  If those who say they would wear a mask actually do consistently wear a mask, it would be a big help.

All of Eastern Ontario, including Ottawa, is supposed to wear a mask inside, and people are doing it.  I'm  not seeing people collapse from the strain.  It's possible.

dignam

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3240 on: July 29, 2020, 08:12:28 AM »
I'll say in my county (in the US) after the mask mandate started a few weeks ago, I don't think I've seen a single person maskless in a public building yet.  Most places will turn you away if not wearing a mask I believe.  For sure all government buildings.

ender

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3241 on: July 29, 2020, 08:35:52 AM »
My initial thought was a systematic misinterpretation of the question (% of population vs % of cases), but you never know with people, numbers and statistics.

If you read through the report, the questions are poorly worded and unless they were asked differently than presented are likely to result in people putting higher numbers.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3242 on: July 29, 2020, 09:42:06 AM »
My initial thought was a systematic misinterpretation of the question (% of population vs % of cases), but you never know with people, numbers and statistics.

That still doesn't explain it.  They thought 20% of people caught the virus, and 9% died.  Even if you think they understood the question as how many people who have caught the virus have died, they are still orders of magnitude off.  No matter how they interpreted those questions their beliefs are very disconnected from reality, but you can find the actual numbers published on dozens of websites.  It's so easy to look up and find out how many have actually died.

I know people are bad at math, but this is some seriously elementary math.  I don't even understand how someone can function in life without being able to perform such simple math.  The study says it's nationally representative, so I assume they aren't taking these polls in some kind of care home of mentally unfit people.  Apparently it's just free range mentally unfit people that are representative of our actual population. 

Or maybe these people just don't follow anything and were not prepared at all, like if you asked me how many people die from leukemia each year.  100? 1,000?, 10,000? I have no fucking idea, and I spend exactly 0% of my life worrying about leukemia, even though I'm aware of it and I know it kills people.  Still, if I was part of a survey and had to give an answer it would probably seem completely disconnected from reality, because it is and would just be made up on the spot. 

Kroaler

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3243 on: July 29, 2020, 09:48:04 AM »
Has anyone noticed people's judgment being severely impacted since covid/lockdown?  I know several examples in my personal circles where people seem to have lost good judgment -- sometimes to the extreme.  There seems to be significant psychological impact that I would have never expected.

Can confirm! I recently quit my job of 10 years to take a year off and work on starting a second business.

Could be poor judgement, we'll find out.

Caoineag

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3244 on: July 29, 2020, 10:00:06 AM »
Has anyone noticed people's judgment being severely impacted since covid/lockdown?  I know several examples in my personal circles where people seem to have lost good judgment -- sometimes to the extreme.  There seems to be significant psychological impact that I would have never expected.

Oh good, it's not just my friend then. She has always been prone to magical thinking but she has definitely crossed over to conspiracy theorists territory. She even said mask wearing was a conspiracy... she actually sent me the cdc link to the hair stylist case and used that as proof masks don't work...

Fortunately she is doing what she is required to since she is pregnant and doesn't want to get covid while pregnant but I still expect her to be one of the first ones with it in my circle given who she socializes with.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3245 on: July 29, 2020, 10:07:16 AM »
Has anyone noticed people's judgment being severely impacted since covid/lockdown?  I know several examples in my personal circles where people seem to have lost good judgment -- sometimes to the extreme.  There seems to be significant psychological impact that I would have never expected.

Oh good, it's not just my friend then. She has always been prone to magical thinking but she has definitely crossed over to conspiracy theorists territory. She even said mask wearing was a conspiracy... she actually sent me the cdc link to the hair stylist case and used that as proof masks don't work...

Fortunately she is doing what she is required to since she is pregnant and doesn't want to get covid while pregnant but I still expect her to be one of the first ones with it in my circle given who she socializes with.

I think there is one fair mask conspiracy theory (if it can even be called that) that when the original recommendation that CDC, WHO, etc. were saying that masks don't work in the early days of COVID it was to keep the public from panic buying N95 masks and save them for health care workers.  Like I said, maybe this does not qualify as a conspiracy theory, but it checks a lot of boxes to fit in that category.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3246 on: July 29, 2020, 10:16:37 AM »
Has anyone noticed people's judgment being severely impacted since covid/lockdown?  I know several examples in my personal circles where people seem to have lost good judgment -- sometimes to the extreme.  There seems to be significant psychological impact that I would have never expected.

Oh good, it's not just my friend then. She has always been prone to magical thinking but she has definitely crossed over to conspiracy theorists territory. She even said mask wearing was a conspiracy... she actually sent me the cdc link to the hair stylist case and used that as proof masks don't work...

Fortunately she is doing what she is required to since she is pregnant and doesn't want to get covid while pregnant but I still expect her to be one of the first ones with it in my circle given who she socializes with.

I think there is one fair mask conspiracy theory (if it can even be called that) that when the original recommendation that CDC, WHO, etc. were saying that masks don't work in the early days of COVID it was to keep the public from panic buying N95 masks and save them for health care workers.  Like I said, maybe this does not qualify as a conspiracy theory, but it checks a lot of boxes to fit in that category.

Is it a conspiracy if they admitted that this was the case?

ericrugiero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3247 on: July 29, 2020, 10:18:21 AM »
Or maybe these people just don't follow anything and were not prepared at all, like if you asked me how many people die from leukemia each year.  100? 1,000?, 10,000? I have no fucking idea, and I spend exactly 0% of my life worrying about leukemia, even though I'm aware of it and I know it kills people.  Still, if I was part of a survey and had to give an answer it would probably seem completely disconnected from reality, because it is and would just be made up on the spot.

True, but leukemia hasn't been on the news nonstop for the last few months.  Even if you don't watch the news, people are talking about it, people have lost jobs, most people have gotten stimulus checks, people are wearing masks, etc.  You would think most people would at least be within one order of magnitude of the deaths and cases. 

Part of the reason the perceived numbers are so much higher than reality is probably because of the nonstop news cycle making it sound so bad.  We are at almost 150,000 reported deaths (Johns Hopkins Data) in the USA through about 4 months.  Average flu deaths are probably close to 40,000 per flu season (based on a glance at CDC data since 2010).  The flu season is also about 4 months.  So, by those rough numbers COVID has been about 4 times worse than the flu but has had well over 100 times the coverage (this is my wild guess).  If you base the expected death rate on increased news coverage vs actual numbers you would assume the numbers were MUCH higher.  My mother died from the flu in the 2017/2018 flu season which was a bad one with over 60,000 deaths.  I remember a couple passing comments in the news that the flu season was bad that year but it was pretty minimal coverage. 

Please note that I understand there are reasons for the increased news coverage such as:
- Flu season is predictable every years and stops at a predictable time.  We don't know how much worse COVID will get or when it will stop. 
- COVID is new and different.  New things are scary. 
- Political reasons (enough said)

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3248 on: July 29, 2020, 10:39:12 AM »
The CDC and the WHO really messed up the mask thing early on. The communication around masks was premature, really bad and confusing.

All organizations are made up of fallible people. When the organization is tasked with tracking a fast moving, emerging risk that is going to take hundreds of thousands of lives, those mistakes are going to be magnified.

To me, this is a much simpler explanation for bad things happening that almost every conspiracy theory I've ever heard.

Shit happens. People make mistakes.

 

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3249 on: July 29, 2020, 11:21:46 AM »
And it would be a terrible, terrible strategy to completely nerf your credibility by saying "don't use masks! They DON'T work!" when your intent was just to keep the supply for medical professionals.  The message itself isn't even coherent.  Don't use masks, they don't work! But also we absolutely NEED them for the healthcare professionals!

I mean, wtf? It's not effective, but also we need them because they are super effective?  What a fucked up backward message.

https://twitter.com/Surgeon_General/status/1233725785283932160