Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 299362 times)

mm1970

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4250 on: October 23, 2020, 11:00:52 AM »
We are coming into winter.....  snowed 6" this week.

We've been really careful this whole time, only seeing 2 family members and 2 neighbor families (outside only).

But as we come in to winter, mental health is already not good, and outdoor socializing is more and more challenging.  We did buy a patio heater.  IDK.  Everything sucks, life is terrible.

No, life is not terrible.  Time to adjust your thinking.  You’re still healthy (I assume), you have a home, family and food on the table and probably a job.  I can think of much harder lives than that.

I hate comments like this. NOT HELPFUL. It's not the suffering olympics. People are allowed to be miserable even if someone has it worse. And it is also a giant middle finger to mental illness.

You can be miserable if you want to.  But wallowing in unhappiness is not going to make you feel better.  Maybe try to find something that will?
I am going to add on to the fact that this is NOT HELPFUL.  I have a family full of "suck it up", "deal with it", "quit whining" and "look on the bright side" people.

What does that do?  It minimizes peoples struggles.  It minimizes people's problems with mental illness.  Ask me how that whole attitude helped my mother, who refused to get help with her mental health because "I should be strong", and "it's weak to get help/ go to a psychiatrist/ take meds."  I'll tell you: she drank herself to death.  Also, ask me how that attitude helped my when my adult nephew told me to stop whining when I was:
- 6 months pregnant
- 42 years old
- hadn't had a full night's sleep in MONTHS
- and my mother had just DRANK HERSELF TO DEATH

There is a time, and a place, for positive thinking.  Nobody is saying that there isn't, and that we shouldn't all use our grit to think about what good is happening in our lives, and how to problem-solve the bad and difficult things.

I have taken to completely ignoring the news.  I am going on two weeks today.  I had zero idea there was a presidential debate last night until someone at work brought it up this morning.

For those suffering, seriously, take a break from the news. This is something I've aspired to and finally pulled the trigger. This article just from yesterday is so on point -- https://zora.medium.com/10-days-without-media-changed-my-life-86f6f951ab36

I'm going to +1 on this.  It is so much better for my mental health when I avoid facebook and the news.  I don't have regular TV.  I know people talk about it being a privilege, but really.
- I have already voted
- I read enough about national and local issues (where I search out specific information) to be an informed voter
- I attend enough school board meetings and school meetings to be informed about school reopening
- I track our county's COVID cases on my own
- I follow a few people on IG who are informed

I really am barely hanging on with a full time job and two kids in virtual school.  I can stay relatively informed without watching debates or hearing about what the orange man did today.  I can vote my conscience, do my best to ease the suffering of others, but I am not going to feel guilty about setting boundaries on what I can and cannot deal with.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4251 on: October 23, 2020, 11:09:40 AM »
But you haven't started any new wars over it yet!  #silverlining

"Yet" being the operative word of course. We're a creative bunch over here in the States.

bigblock440

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4252 on: October 23, 2020, 11:29:53 AM »
That logic would make a lot more sense if we didn't have over a million dead people from that invisible virus.  The virus is invisible, but the wake of its destruction is very visible and tangible.

And 85 million died in WWII, a minuscule threat by comparison.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4253 on: October 23, 2020, 12:15:38 PM »
That logic would make a lot more sense if we didn't have over a million dead people from that invisible virus.  The virus is invisible, but the wake of its destruction is very visible and tangible.

And 85 million died in WWII, a minuscule threat by comparison.

1. who would make that comparison?
2. is it though? WWWII was over a 6 year period.  Coronavirus has been over a 6 month period, with extreme mitigation measures taken worldwide.  If you scale it up it seems like the death toll is within an order of magnitude of the largest war ever.  I don't think it's making your point as strongly as you think.

bloodaxe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4254 on: October 23, 2020, 12:28:00 PM »
That logic would make a lot more sense if we didn't have over a million dead people from that invisible virus.  The virus is invisible, but the wake of its destruction is very visible and tangible.

And 85 million died in WWII, a minuscule threat by comparison.

1. who would make that comparison?
2. is it though? WWWII was over a 6 year period.  Coronavirus has been over a 6 month period, with extreme mitigation measures taken worldwide.  If you scale it up it seems like the death toll is within an order of magnitude of the largest war ever.  I don't think it's making your point as strongly as you think.

I think it would be better to compare the % of world population deaths, if that comparison should be made.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4255 on: October 23, 2020, 12:29:56 PM »
I don't know that either comparison is particularly helpful.  It's a virus, not a world war.

bigblock440

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4256 on: October 23, 2020, 01:11:27 PM »
That logic would make a lot more sense if we didn't have over a million dead people from that invisible virus.  The virus is invisible, but the wake of its destruction is very visible and tangible.

And 85 million died in WWII, a minuscule threat by comparison.

1. who would make that comparison?
2. is it though? WWWII was over a 6 year period.  Coronavirus has been over a 6 month period, with extreme mitigation measures taken worldwide.  If you scale it up it seems like the death toll is within an order of magnitude of the largest war ever.  I don't think it's making your point as strongly as you think.

1. The 6 posts directly before yours.
2. I guess we'll find out in a few years, since it's not going away.  Also, it's been 10 months.  Assuming the rates stay the same, it'd still only be 1/10th in total volume.  Is it really that big of a surprise that many people just aren't that scared of it?

GardenerB

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4257 on: October 23, 2020, 02:58:35 PM »
That logic would make a lot more sense if we didn't have over a million dead people from that invisible virus.  The virus is invisible, but the wake of its destruction is very visible and tangible.

And 85 million died in WWII, a minuscule threat by comparison.

1. who would make that comparison?
2. is it though? WWWII was over a 6 year period.  Coronavirus has been over a 6 month period, with extreme mitigation measures taken worldwide.  If you scale it up it seems like the death toll is within an order of magnitude of the largest war ever.  I don't think it's making your point as strongly as you think.

I think it would be better to compare the % of world population deaths, if that comparison should be made.

For % comparison:

- Estimated worldwide deaths 2019 was 58 million (2020 without C19 I believe is 59 million)
- C19 as of Oct 23/20 - 1.14 million = 1.9% of deaths (but year not finished)
- Estimates for next five years between 1.6 to 8.8 million total (ref below)

Reference - published doc on the estimated mortality for 2019 to 2024 (5 years) due to C19 and, worse, the deaths estimated to be caused by lockdowns and poverty.  Based on the IFR ranges accepted by the WHO and CDC so using their figures:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13423

I know there is criticism for Ioannidis, but this paper and his IFR range paper are now complete for peer review and accepted by the WHO.

https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf

(Influenza deaths for comparison are all over the place. 'Up to' 650,000 per year globally (with some vaccine coverage).  For US, 2018 was 80,000 directly from influenza.) 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(18)30310-4/fulltext
https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

Also on the topic of vaccines, their end-goal is not so simple:

https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/10/10/a-sars-cov2-vaccine-dont-hold-your-breath/

“These [vaccine] protocols do not emphasize the most important ramifications of COVID-19 that people are most interested in preventing: overall infection, hospitalization, and death.”

[The COVID-19 vaccine trials are only looking to see if these vaccines reduce symptoms that may be as mild as cough and headache. They are NOT requiring that the vaccines reduce the risk of infection, hospitalization or death.]"


marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4258 on: October 23, 2020, 03:05:46 PM »
@middo just got you post a few pages earlier.

Congrats to you and Victorians for getting through lockdown, and actually flattening the curve!

A bit rich of the federal health minister shooting his mouth off at Andrews. Perhaps if his tracing app worked we wouldn’t have been in the second wave situation in the first place.


Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4259 on: October 23, 2020, 08:24:46 PM »
Regarding endpoints for the vaccine trials: death rates are almost never the endpoint for vaccine trials, as they are a secondary effect of the primary endpoint, preventing infection. You can’t die of covid 19 if you don’t get it. The main reason the trial endpoint is not deaths from covid is the size of the trial powered to discriminate that endpoint would be gigantic. I roughly calculated a 50% efficacy at preventing deaths (from estimated current 0.1% to 0.05%) would require about 70,000 volunteers for an 80% power and alpha of 0.05. Current trials are powered for a 70% decrease, though.
Also they require PCR testing so it’s not based on symptoms alone.

A second point: An IRB will be unlikely to approve a trial of that size if another valid primary endpoint can be evaluated with a smaller trial size.

Finally, one of the secondary endpoints, which he left off, is prevention of severe/critical COVId-19. This is a better endpoint than death with covid-19, since it is also captures those patients who are severely ill but survive, along with those who ultimately die. 

Regarding the trial secondary completion date: that is a regulatory date upon which the sponsor must stop collecting data on patients for the purposes of the primary endpoints. It is a regulatory time point, and has nothing to do with time to answer the primary endpoint questions.

I do agree that, since we will not have all safety data available on an accelerated timeline, we shouldn’t make the vaccine mandatory. I doubt that there will be long-term effects due to the nature of the vaccine and the expected shorter duration of efficacy in T cell response, but it wouldn’t be ethical to force use of these vaccines.
« Last Edit: October 23, 2020, 08:45:50 PM by Abe »

alsoknownasDean

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4260 on: October 23, 2020, 11:33:24 PM »
Congrats to you and Victorians for getting through lockdown, and actually flattening the curve!

It's been a long slog (I haven't seen my family since mid-June), but we're nearly there!

Let's hope the latest outbreak doesn't put us back too far.

I live in a postcode that now has zero active cases, and went to a supermarket today in another postcode also with zero active cases. Everyone in the supermarket was wearing a mask, but I was still uncomfortable as it was busy. I can only imagine how the supermarket staff feel.

middo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4261 on: October 24, 2020, 05:50:12 AM »
Congrats to you and Victorians for getting through lockdown, and actually flattening the curve!

It's been a long slog (I haven't seen my family since mid-June), but we're nearly there!

Let's hope the latest outbreak doesn't put us back too far.

I live in a postcode that now has zero active cases, and went to a supermarket today in another postcode also with zero active cases. Everyone in the supermarket was wearing a mask, but I was still uncomfortable as it was busy. I can only imagine how the supermarket staff feel.

Yes, it has been 9 months since I saw my father who lives 35 kms from me.  Hopefully I will see him before Christmas.

It has been a long slog but with 7 cases today (7 local transmission cases in all of Australia today) we should be opening up soon.

alsoknownasDean

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4262 on: October 25, 2020, 11:55:10 PM »
Yes, it has been 9 months since I saw my father who lives 35 kms from me.  Hopefully I will see him before Christmas.

It has been a long slog but with 7 cases today (7 local transmission cases in all of Australia today) we should be opening up soon.

Hopefully soon with today's update. Zero new cases!

https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/updates/coronavirus-covid-19/statement-premier-26-october-2020

kei te pai

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4263 on: October 26, 2020, 01:16:33 AM »
Congratulations to all the Victorians! Looking forward to our travel bubble in the not too distant future, hopefully!

hops

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4264 on: October 26, 2020, 01:19:47 PM »
My SO's family recently lost its most vulnerable member to COVID-19. As she spent her final days alone and afraid, in physical distress, one of her adult children continued diligently spouting anti-mask vitriol and virus denialism to anyone who would listen. The degree to which people have lost their minds over this is staggering.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4265 on: October 26, 2020, 01:40:25 PM »
My SO's family recently lost its most vulnerable member to COVID-19. As she spent her final days alone and afraid, in physical distress, one of her adult children continued diligently spouting anti-mask vitriol and virus denialism to anyone who would listen. The degree to which people have lost their minds over this is staggering.

Well, at least you know why the loss happened.

sui generis

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4266 on: October 26, 2020, 02:17:45 PM »
My SO's family recently lost its most vulnerable member to COVID-19. As she spent her final days alone and afraid, in physical distress, one of her adult children continued diligently spouting anti-mask vitriol and virus denialism to anyone who would listen. The degree to which people have lost their minds over this is staggering.

Sorry for your/SO's loss.  I hope that child of the deceased is being treated by the family like the murderer s/he likely is.  My sister's whole family got COVID and came around fine, but my sister still won't speak to her mother-in-law, who they caught it from and who had deceived them about her activities (she just *had* to go dancing and drinking!  She was so sick of staying hooommmmeee) before  being allowed to interact with the kids.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4267 on: October 26, 2020, 08:55:13 PM »
I hope that child of the deceased is being treated by the family like the murderer s/he likely is.
I think you should consider seriously what you are saying.

sui generis

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4268 on: October 26, 2020, 09:25:15 PM »
I hope that child of the deceased is being treated by the family like the murderer s/he likely is.
I think you should consider seriously what you are saying.
I did.

middo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4269 on: October 26, 2020, 09:56:26 PM »
Congratulations to all the Victorians! Looking forward to our travel bubble in the not too distant future, hopefully!

We had a planned trip to Queenstown for some skiing (not very Mustachian) canned this year.  Hopefully next year!

kei te pai

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4270 on: October 27, 2020, 02:10:23 AM »
We are hoping to ‘jump the ditch’ for a wedding next year. I am now cautiously optimistic about the chances.There is no way I am spending 2 weeks + in isolation much as I love the happy couple.

LightTripper

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4271 on: October 27, 2020, 06:19:05 AM »
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/27/proportion-of-people-in-england-with-covid-antibodies-has-fallen-study-says

This is quite interesting, and a bit depressing.  Looks like immunity doesn't last that long. 

I guess long term this just means the vaccine will become an annual thing for older people, like flu.  Short term... seems like definitely not good news.

T-Money$

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4272 on: October 27, 2020, 09:48:48 AM »
Turns out the scientists really don’t believe in “science” after all...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/top-scientific-journals-reject-controversial-danish-study-on-effectiveness-of-face-masks-against-coronavirus-report/ar-BB1aiLvF

Top scientific journals reject 'controversial' Danish study on effectiveness of face masks against coronavirus: Report

Some of the world's top scientific journals are being accused of suppressing the results of a study aimed at determining the effectiveness of face masks against the spread of the coronavirus.

"They all said no," said Christian Torp-Pedersen, chief physician at North Zealand Hospital’s research department, who was involved in the study. "We cannot start discussing what they are dissatisfied with because, in that case, we must also explain what the study showed, and we do not want to discuss that until it is published."

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32829745/

« Last Edit: October 27, 2020, 09:50:37 AM by T-Money$ »

T-Money$

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4273 on: October 27, 2020, 09:53:42 AM »
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/27/proportion-of-people-in-england-with-covid-antibodies-has-fallen-study-says

This is quite interesting, and a bit depressing.  Looks like immunity doesn't last that long. 

I guess long term this just means the vaccine will become an annual thing for older people, like flu.  Short term... seems like definitely not good news.

Measured COVID-19 antibodies do not equal immunity. 

T-Money$

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LightTripper

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4275 on: October 27, 2020, 10:01:50 AM »
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/27/proportion-of-people-in-england-with-covid-antibodies-has-fallen-study-says

This is quite interesting, and a bit depressing.  Looks like immunity doesn't last that long. 

I guess long term this just means the vaccine will become an annual thing for older people, like flu.  Short term... seems like definitely not good news.

Measured COVID-19 antibodies do not equal immunity.

For sure - but longer lived antibodies would seem like good news (the team quoted in the article as saying "antibodies were still good indicator of protection against reinfections").  The article does talk about that uncertainty more generally though (and the fact that a good vaccine may well provide more or longer lasting protection than natural immunity post-infection).  Hence "a bit depressing" rather than "extremely depressing". 

bigblock440

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4276 on: October 27, 2020, 10:05:23 AM »
I hope that child of the deceased is being treated by the family like the murderer s/he likely is.
I think you should consider seriously what you are saying.
I did.

Everybody who's ever had the flu should also be jailed for murder.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4277 on: October 27, 2020, 10:09:42 AM »
I hope that child of the deceased is being treated by the family like the murderer s/he likely is.
I think you should consider seriously what you are saying.
I did.

Everybody who's ever had the flu should also be jailed for murder.

Hmm.  Claims that coronavirus is the same as the flu . . . I thought we were past this.

former player

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4278 on: October 27, 2020, 10:28:26 AM »
Turns out the scientists really don’t believe in “science” after all...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/top-scientific-journals-reject-controversial-danish-study-on-effectiveness-of-face-masks-against-coronavirus-report/ar-BB1aiLvF

Top scientific journals reject 'controversial' Danish study on effectiveness of face masks against coronavirus: Report

Some of the world's top scientific journals are being accused of suppressing the results of a study aimed at determining the effectiveness of face masks against the spread of the coronavirus.

"They all said no," said Christian Torp-Pedersen, chief physician at North Zealand Hospital’s research department, who was involved in the study. "We cannot start discussing what they are dissatisfied with because, in that case, we must also explain what the study showed, and we do not want to discuss that until it is published."

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32829745/
Two things.  Firstly, the link I followed stated that the report was still being finalised.  So not a finished study then, which would be reason for rejection by itself.  And secondly, no information is given as to why the study was rejected.  There may be faults in the study, or it may not be the kind of study that the journals approached would normally publish - the article mentions "top journals" and the competition for publication in top scientific journals is incredibly fierce.

Basically, whatever point you thought you were making, you weren't.

sui generis

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4279 on: October 27, 2020, 10:47:47 AM »
I hope that child of the deceased is being treated by the family like the murderer s/he likely is.
I think you should consider seriously what you are saying.
I did.

Everybody who's ever had the flu should also be jailed for murder.

Wow, where did you get that? Since when do civilian family members have the power to put their other family members in jail? That's crazy

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4280 on: October 27, 2020, 03:37:01 PM »
Turns out the scientists really don’t believe in “science” after all...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/top-scientific-journals-reject-controversial-danish-study-on-effectiveness-of-face-masks-against-coronavirus-report/ar-BB1aiLvF

Top scientific journals reject 'controversial' Danish study on effectiveness of face masks against coronavirus: Report

Some of the world's top scientific journals are being accused of suppressing the results of a study aimed at determining the effectiveness of face masks against the spread of the coronavirus.

"They all said no," said Christian Torp-Pedersen, chief physician at North Zealand Hospital’s research department, who was involved in the study. "We cannot start discussing what they are dissatisfied with because, in that case, we must also explain what the study showed, and we do not want to discuss that until it is published."

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32829745/
Two things.  Firstly, the link I followed stated that the report was still being finalised.  So not a finished study then, which would be reason for rejection by itself.  And secondly, no information is given as to why the study was rejected.  There may be faults in the study, or it may not be the kind of study that the journals approached would normally publish - the article mentions "top journals" and the competition for publication in top scientific journals is incredibly fierce.

Basically, whatever point you thought you were making, you weren't.

Yeah, papers are rejected all the time.     The authors could always put it up in medrxiv if they felt it was really important.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4281 on: October 27, 2020, 06:20:28 PM »
I hope that child of the deceased is being treated by the family like the murderer s/he likely is.
I think you should consider seriously what you are saying.
I did.

Everybody who's ever had the flu should also be jailed for murder.

Apart from the fact you are comparing apples to pineapples, someone getting a flu shot is taking active measures to NOT get the flu (and there are no asymptomatic flu spreaders).  Someone not wearing a mask (and how well is that person managing social distancing?) is taking steps to be a spreader, since there are asymptomatic spreaders.

Someone lying about exposure and causing a death is morally guilty of at least causing death by negligence.

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4282 on: October 27, 2020, 09:16:57 PM »
Turns out the scientists really don’t believe in “science” after all...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/top-scientific-journals-reject-controversial-danish-study-on-effectiveness-of-face-masks-against-coronavirus-report/ar-BB1aiLvF

Top scientific journals reject 'controversial' Danish study on effectiveness of face masks against coronavirus: Report

Some of the world's top scientific journals are being accused of suppressing the results of a study aimed at determining the effectiveness of face masks against the spread of the coronavirus.

"They all said no," said Christian Torp-Pedersen, chief physician at North Zealand Hospital’s research department, who was involved in the study. "We cannot start discussing what they are dissatisfied with because, in that case, we must also explain what the study showed, and we do not want to discuss that until it is published."

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32829745/
Two things.  Firstly, the link I followed stated that the report was still being finalised.  So not a finished study then, which would be reason for rejection by itself.  And secondly, no information is given as to why the study was rejected.  There may be faults in the study, or it may not be the kind of study that the journals approached would normally publish - the article mentions "top journals" and the competition for publication in top scientific journals is incredibly fierce.

Basically, whatever point you thought you were making, you weren't.

Yeah, papers are rejected all the time.     The authors could always put it up in medrxiv if they felt it was really important.

I agree. Based on the quotes my guess is it showed no difference between mask wearing and no mask in public. Most likely it was rejected due to lack of power. To explain this: If you are trying to find a difference in treatment for a rare event, if you don’t recruit enough people then you may not see a real difference, just because of chance. For example: a trial has 100 people in each trial arm, and 5/100 get covid vs 4/100. Your standard error is 1 for both arms. You can’t say whether or not the two arms are equivalent or there’s a benefit to the 2nd arm. Giving the authors the benefit of the doubt: If the trial in question accrued 6000 participants, and the incidence of covid-19 was 5% within the month-long trial (unlikely since in the US even after a several month period, high-risk populations had a prevalence of only 5%), it would only have a 47% probability of finding a true relative reduction of risk by 20% (5 vs 4%). If the incidence is lower but benefit bigger (say 3 vs 2% for a 33% reduction), the power would be still be only 70%. Still a 30% chance the trial was unlucky and missed a true difference. Ways they could’ve improved the power would’ve been increasing the time studied to increase the prevalence of covid-19 in the placebo group, or increase the trial size. This is all obviously speculation but that is a common reason that randomized trials are rejected, and most vaccine trials are recruiting more than 30,000; this suggests the proper sample size is around that amount.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2020, 09:22:08 PM by Abe »

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4283 on: October 27, 2020, 09:47:06 PM »
Troubling data from Europe:

https://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-emergencies/coronavirus-covid-19/weekly-surveillance-report

Figure 3 shows that although increases in positives has been mostly in the younger age F groups, deaths remain disproportionately higher among older groups and actually increase in relative and absolute numbers with the current surge.
 
Figure 4 shows that the rate of positive covid tests in the influenza-like/acute respiratory illness survey is declining, suggesting that non-covid illnesses are also increasing with the winter approaching. This they are not seeing a drop in other illnesses that was seen in Australia.

Estimated infection fatality rates now hover around 0.5-1% per the WHO (US confirmed case fatality rate is about 2.5%).

Eowynd

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4284 on: October 28, 2020, 05:51:46 AM »
I hope that child of the deceased is being treated by the family like the murderer s/he likely is.
I think you should consider seriously what you are saying.
I did.

Everybody who's ever had the flu should also be jailed for murder.

Apart from the fact you are comparing apples to pineapples, someone getting a flu shot is taking active measures to NOT get the flu (and there are no asymptomatic flu spreaders).  Someone not wearing a mask (and how well is that person managing social distancing?) is taking steps to be a spreader, since there are asymptomatic spreaders.

Someone lying about exposure and causing a death is morally guilty of at least causing death by negligence.

I agree that Covid-19 is not the same as the flu but where did you get the idea that there are "no asymptomatic flu spreaders"?
At least one study that I found begs to differ:
https://www.nhs.uk/news/medical-practice/three-quarters-of-people-with-flu-have-no-symptoms/

Pre-covid era, the culture at my work was that you came in to the office unless if you were completely incapacitated.  Someone with mild symptoms of the flu could have easily spread it around the whole office.  It seems likely that if you traced the chain of infection you could eventually link a death to someone who came in to the office when they were sick.  Are all of those people who came in to work with undiagnosed mild symptoms of an illness morally guilty of causing death(s) by negligence?  If they were not guilty back then, why is covid different now?

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4285 on: October 28, 2020, 08:03:44 AM »
Turns out the scientists really don’t believe in “science” after all...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/top-scientific-journals-reject-controversial-danish-study-on-effectiveness-of-face-masks-against-coronavirus-report/ar-BB1aiLvF

Top scientific journals reject 'controversial' Danish study on effectiveness of face masks against coronavirus: Report

Some of the world's top scientific journals are being accused of suppressing the results of a study aimed at determining the effectiveness of face masks against the spread of the coronavirus.

"They all said no," said Christian Torp-Pedersen, chief physician at North Zealand Hospital’s research department, who was involved in the study. "We cannot start discussing what they are dissatisfied with because, in that case, we must also explain what the study showed, and we do not want to discuss that until it is published."

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32829745/
Two things.  Firstly, the link I followed stated that the report was still being finalised.  So not a finished study then, which would be reason for rejection by itself.  And secondly, no information is given as to why the study was rejected.  There may be faults in the study, or it may not be the kind of study that the journals approached would normally publish - the article mentions "top journals" and the competition for publication in top scientific journals is incredibly fierce.

Basically, whatever point you thought you were making, you weren't.

T-Money is disingenuous and arguing in bad faith.  He is sifting through mounds and mounds of data, ignoring most of it until he finds something that he thinks fits his viewpoint.  He can/should be ignored*.  I haven't read a post of his in months and I don't think I've missed anything of value. 

*Is there a way to hide a member's posts and ignore them?

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4286 on: October 28, 2020, 08:17:00 AM »
Yes, you can in your profile. I have greatly improved my forum experience by ignoring a user.

bigblock440

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4287 on: October 28, 2020, 09:02:52 AM »
I hope that child of the deceased is being treated by the family like the murderer s/he likely is.
I think you should consider seriously what you are saying.
I did.

Everybody who's ever had the flu should also be jailed for murder.

Hmm.  Claims that coronavirus is the same as the flu . . . I thought we were past this.

Hmm.  Claims that influenza doesn't kill people....I thought we were.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4288 on: October 28, 2020, 09:08:43 AM »
I hope that child of the deceased is being treated by the family like the murderer s/he likely is.
I think you should consider seriously what you are saying.
I did.

Everybody who's ever had the flu should also be jailed for murder.

Hmm.  Claims that coronavirus is the same as the flu . . . I thought we were past this.

Hmm.  Claims that influenza doesn't kill people....I thought we were.

Nobody made the claim that the influenza doesn't kill people.

You made a direct comparison between the flu and coronavirus.  Coronavirus is significantly more dangerous than the flu (greater transmissibility, more deaths, unknown long term effects).  They're not comparable.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4289 on: October 28, 2020, 09:14:24 AM »
Yes, you can in your profile. I have greatly improved my forum experience by ignoring a user.

Nice.  T-Money$ just made the list. 


bigblock440

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4290 on: October 28, 2020, 09:33:43 AM »
I hope that child of the deceased is being treated by the family like the murderer s/he likely is.
I think you should consider seriously what you are saying.
I did.

Everybody who's ever had the flu should also be jailed for murder.

Apart from the fact you are comparing apples to pineapples, someone getting a flu shot is taking active measures to NOT get the flu (and there are no asymptomatic flu spreaders).  Someone not wearing a mask (and how well is that person managing social distancing?) is taking steps to be a spreader, since there are asymptomatic spreaders.

Someone lying about exposure and causing a death is morally guilty of at least causing death by negligence.

Interesting bit of misinformation there. 

https://asm.org/Articles/2020/July/COVID-19-and-the-Flu
https://www.contagionlive.com/view/asymptomatic-influenza-infection-rates-deserve-more-attention
https://cid.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2016/12/22/cid.ciw841.full.pdf+html

Quote
Importantly, individuals do not need to exhibit symptoms to be contagious. Both COVID-19 and the flu can be transmitted by presymptomatic, asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic individuals.
 
Influenza virus can remain infectious on surfaces outside of the body for up to 48 hours,


bigblock440

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4291 on: October 28, 2020, 09:40:16 AM »
I hope that child of the deceased is being treated by the family like the murderer s/he likely is.
I think you should consider seriously what you are saying.
I did.

Everybody who's ever had the flu should also be jailed for murder.

Hmm.  Claims that coronavirus is the same as the flu . . . I thought we were past this.

Hmm.  Claims that influenza doesn't kill people....I thought we were.

Nobody made the claim that the influenza doesn't kill people.

You made a direct comparison between the flu and coronavirus.  Coronavirus is significantly more dangerous than the flu (greater transmissibility, more deaths, unknown long term effects).  They're not comparable.

So what mortality rate do we start charging people with murder?

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4292 on: October 28, 2020, 10:11:50 AM »
Not a lawyer, but there's a lot more at play to proving murder than bad behavior during a pandemic.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4293 on: October 28, 2020, 10:15:54 AM »
I hope that child of the deceased is being treated by the family like the murderer s/he likely is.
I think you should consider seriously what you are saying.
I did.

Everybody who's ever had the flu should also be jailed for murder.

Hmm.  Claims that coronavirus is the same as the flu . . . I thought we were past this.

Hmm.  Claims that influenza doesn't kill people....I thought we were.

Nobody made the claim that the influenza doesn't kill people.

You made a direct comparison between the flu and coronavirus.  Coronavirus is significantly more dangerous than the flu (greater transmissibility, more deaths, unknown long term effects).  They're not comparable.

So what mortality rate do we start charging people with murder?

I'd encourage you to re-read the posts above.  You seem to be railing against something that wasn't said.

Nobody said that anyone should be charged with murder:

"I hope that child of the deceased is being treated by the family like the murderer s/he likely is. "

Sui Generis said that he(she?) hopes that a person who doesn't take sensible precautions around those who are at high risk is treated like a murderer.  Seems pretty reasonable to me.  The family has every right to be pissed off at the person who most likely caused the death.

dandarc

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4294 on: October 28, 2020, 10:20:24 AM »
beat me to it GuitarStv.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4295 on: October 28, 2020, 10:20:55 AM »
I hope that child of the deceased is being treated by the family like the murderer s/he likely is.
I think you should consider seriously what you are saying.
I did.

Everybody who's ever had the flu should also be jailed for murder.

Apart from the fact you are comparing apples to pineapples, someone getting a flu shot is taking active measures to NOT get the flu (and there are no asymptomatic flu spreaders).  Someone not wearing a mask (and how well is that person managing social distancing?) is taking steps to be a spreader, since there are asymptomatic spreaders.

Someone lying about exposure and causing a death is morally guilty of at least causing death by negligence.

I agree that Covid-19 is not the same as the flu but where did you get the idea that there are "no asymptomatic flu spreaders"?
At least one study that I found begs to differ:
https://www.nhs.uk/news/medical-practice/three-quarters-of-people-with-flu-have-no-symptoms/

Pre-covid era, the culture at my work was that you came in to the office unless if you were completely incapacitated.  Someone with mild symptoms of the flu could have easily spread it around the whole office.  It seems likely that if you traced the chain of infection you could eventually link a death to someone who came in to the office when they were sick.  Are all of those people who came in to work with undiagnosed mild symptoms of an illness morally guilty of causing death(s) by negligence?  If they were not guilty back then, why is covid different now?

Learn something new every day.  Early in the pandemic there were discussions of how Covid-19 was more dangerous because there were people who never showed symptoms but still shed the virus, and that people who did get sick were shedding virus before they showed symptoms, and this was new.  My previous understanding was that people with the flu didn't shed until they showed symptoms (of course early flu symptoms and mild flu symptoms can be easily not noticed).

I've always thought this "work until you are really sick" attitude was stupid.  Colds are ubiquitous, not really much use to stay home if you feel OK and are controlling symptoms.   If you are not coughing and sneezing and others are doing basic personal hygiene, transmission rate should be low.  But the flu?  Stay home.  And go back a step, improve your odds of not catching it in the first place, get your flu vaccination.  Same for Covid, isolate as much as possible, wear a mask, keep your distance, wash your hands.

Other really basic precaution - I am seeing more and more about seriously ill people being really deficient in Vitamin D.  I have been taking extra D (and getting  adequate but not excessive sun exposure) because X-rays a few years ago showed I have mild osteopenia.  How is everyone else doing?  Hmm, once we are thorough this pandemic I should get new x-rays done to see if my bone density has improved.

DadJokes

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4296 on: October 29, 2020, 06:04:28 AM »
...

The family has every right to be pissed off at the person who most likely caused the death.

I missed the part in that story where the family member most likely caused the death. Did the adult child test positive at some point in this process?

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4297 on: October 29, 2020, 07:25:09 AM »
...

The family has every right to be pissed off at the person who most likely caused the death.

I missed the part in that story where the family member most likely caused the death. Did the adult child test positive at some point in this process?

What does a positive test have to do with anything?

The person mentioned wasn't willing to wear a mask or do basic safety precautions - I assumed that the odds of them bothering to get a test immediately before visiting were pretty low, a great many people can't get a timely test even if they want one, because of the way this virus grows a negative test result doesn't mean that you won't test positive the next day (or the day after that), most people who are asymptomatic do not get tests (I'm also assuming that as big a dick as this guy was, even he wouldn't have visited a vulnerable relative with symptoms).

DadJokes

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4298 on: October 29, 2020, 12:30:07 PM »
...

The family has every right to be pissed off at the person who most likely caused the death.

I missed the part in that story where the family member most likely caused the death. Did the adult child test positive at some point in this process?

What does a positive test have to do with anything?

The person mentioned wasn't willing to wear a mask or do basic safety precautions - I assumed that the odds of them bothering to get a test immediately before visiting were pretty low, a great many people can't get a timely test even if they want one, because of the way this virus grows a negative test result doesn't mean that you won't test positive the next day (or the day after that), most people who are asymptomatic do not get tests (I'm also assuming that as big a dick as this guy was, even he wouldn't have visited a vulnerable relative with symptoms).

So what you're saying is that his actions could have caused a death, not that they most likely caused a death.

Word choice is very important when assigning blame for death. Most likely implies a greater than 50% chance, which seems disingenuous in this case.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #4299 on: October 29, 2020, 01:05:10 PM »
...

The family has every right to be pissed off at the person who most likely caused the death.

I missed the part in that story where the family member most likely caused the death. Did the adult child test positive at some point in this process?

What does a positive test have to do with anything?

The person mentioned wasn't willing to wear a mask or do basic safety precautions - I assumed that the odds of them bothering to get a test immediately before visiting were pretty low, a great many people can't get a timely test even if they want one, because of the way this virus grows a negative test result doesn't mean that you won't test positive the next day (or the day after that), most people who are asymptomatic do not get tests (I'm also assuming that as big a dick as this guy was, even he wouldn't have visited a vulnerable relative with symptoms).

So what you're saying is that his actions could have caused a death, not that they most likely caused a death.

Word choice is very important when assigning blame for death. Most likely implies a greater than 50% chance, which seems disingenuous in this case.

No, I don't agree at all.

He was behaving like a person who has a couple dozen shots of whiskey and then goes for a joyride.  We know that a close family member was out walking and run over while he was joyriding around.  We don't know for sure it was him because his car has mysteriously disappeared.  We only know that his utter lack of concern for the life of other people put them all at risk.  Is there an off chance that another driver killed the family member?  Sure.  But it's less likely.

The family has every right to be pissed off at the person who's reckless disregard for the safety of others make it more likely that he caused the death than people in the family who took the precautions they were supposed to.  His actions make him the most likely person to have transmitted the disease until further evidence is brought forth.

If you think that's unfair . . . yeah.  Probably is.  It's also unfair to casually put other's lives at risk.