Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 248326 times)

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1700 on: May 08, 2020, 08:36:08 PM »
Sweden's approach is causing them to have much higher infection and death numbers than their neighbors.
I really just don't understand the people who point out Sweden and don't care that the death rate is over 12%?

12%

If 12% of my company's employees died, that would be 8 people.

If 12% of the people over 60 at my company died, that would still be 1 or 2 people.

People that I KNOW and work with DAILY.

It's pretty disingenuous to talk about a death rate of 12%. The death rate seems high because Sweden's done less tests. Their view is to just let the virus spread. So they have only recorded 25,000 cases of the virus but I'm sure there are hundreds of thousands more.

The Swedish per capita death rate is 3 per 10,000 which gives a lot more perspective.

Bloop you have to get over this Swedish rubbish. It is a fantasy peddled by right wing crazy numpties like my local member of parliament.

Their death rate is 3 per 10,000, (314 per million), which is the 6th highest in the world if you exclude the tiny principalities of San Marino, Andorra and the statistically insignificant kingdom of Sint Maarten.

And you yourself just said it's because the Swedes have done less tests. What do you think the death rate would be in Sweden if they tested more of the bodies?

And their economy is still going to be trashed anyway. So please don't keep repeating the nonsense about Sweden being some sort of island of good sense. It's not.

And another thing - it's not just about the death rate. Have you ever been on a ventilator before? Even if you survive Covid, a patient has months of rehabilitation ahead of them.

Some go into comas. Some need to learn how to breathe again on their own. Some have permanent lung damage.

It's not enough to only look at death rates, a high number of severe cases is going to have a significant draw on the economy for years to come as people recover.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2020, 08:40:59 PM by marty998 »

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1701 on: May 08, 2020, 08:55:14 PM »
I think it remains to be seen if Sweden is simply going through its death curve more quickly than other countries or if it is really incurring more long term damage.  We'll have to look back once this virus has run its course.  It could be that other countries are simply postponing (through lockdown measures) the inevitable.  Remember, lockdowns don't "save" anyone. They're merely a temporary "Pause" button. It's building a backlog of postponed infections while of course preventing hospitals being overwhelmed.  We may find in the long run that Sweden was successful because it didn't destroy its own economy and still ended up with a similar % of deaths.  We'll have to see once this pandemic has run its full course.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1702 on: May 08, 2020, 08:59:55 PM »
urworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid#case-fatality-rate-of-covid-19-by-age

The age 30-39 death rate from covid is 0.11-0.3%



This is case fatality rate, infection fatality rate is quite a bit lower.  A recent Denmark study showed the under-70 IFR is 0.08% and an Italy serological study shows under-60 IFR is at 0.05%. The newly revised Santa Clara/Stanford study shows all-age IFR is 0.17%.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2020, 09:11:41 PM by HBFIRE »

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1703 on: May 08, 2020, 09:00:15 PM »
Time will tell, Marty. Let's wait for the GDP and unemployment figures in 3, 6 and 12 months' time. At least Sweden has had the guts to be the "control" group for the rest of the world. Once we have those figures we can finally answer the question that no one seems to be asking (but that everyone should), which is how much economic damage and how many job losses we should tolerate per 1 QALY lost. That really should be the equation on everyone's lips and the fact that it's not shows a wilful disregard for ethics among our political advisors (or at least, an unwillingness to vocalise the ethical conundrum here).

I'm not saying I'm necessarily in the right. It might be that Sweden's 3000 deaths are 2000 too many once the economic figures come out. Maybe if Sweden only fares a little bit better than its neighbours, we'll know that its permissive policies have been misguided. I freely concede that the figures need to be crunched first. But, unlike some of the lockdown proponents, I'm willing to see both sides and to see that this essentially boils down to an economic and mathematical weighing of various bad outcomes.

kenmoremmm

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1704 on: May 08, 2020, 09:03:08 PM »
I think it remains to be seen if Sweden is simply going through its death curve more quickly than other countries or if it is really incurring more long term damage.  We'll have to look back once this virus has run its course.  It could be that other countries are simply postponing (through lockdown measures) the inevitable.  Remember, lockdowns don't "save" anyone. They're merely a temporary "Pause" button. It's building a backlog of postponed infections while of course preventing hospitals being overwhelmed.  We may find in the long run that Sweden was successful because it didn't destroy its own economy and still ended up with a similar % of deaths.  We'll have to see once this pandemic has run its full course.

quoted for truth.

i've been saying this since day 1 and still agree.

obstinate

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1705 on: May 08, 2020, 09:25:17 PM »
I think it remains to be seen if Sweden is simply going through its death curve more quickly than other countries or if it is really incurring more long term damage.  We'll have to look back once this virus has run its course.  It could be that other countries are simply postponing (through lockdown measures) the inevitable.  Remember, lockdowns don't "save" anyone. They're merely a temporary "Pause" button. It's building a backlog of postponed infections while of course preventing hospitals being overwhelmed.  We may find in the long run that Sweden was successful because it didn't destroy its own economy and still ended up with a similar % of deaths.  We'll have to see once this pandemic has run its full course.
We'll see. Another thing to note is that Swedes are moving around a lot less than normal. They are just doing so of their own accord rather than because of a government order. One way you can see this is that Sweden's economy is set to contract just as much as its neighbors during the COVID pandemic, even though it had no official lockdown. BTW, that also dispenses with the major purported benefit of remaining open. And even though they're seeing little benefit, they're paying a much higher cost in terms of fatalities than their neighbors, at least so far.

Plina

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1706 on: May 08, 2020, 11:04:17 PM »
Sweden's approach is causing them to have much higher infection and death numbers than their neighbors.
I really just don't understand the people who point out Sweden and don't care that the death rate is over 12%?

12%

If 12% of my company's employees died, that would be 8 people.

If 12% of the people over 60 at my company died, that would still be 1 or 2 people.

People that I KNOW and work with DAILY.

It's pretty disingenuous to talk about a death rate of 12%. The death rate seems high because Sweden's done less tests. Their view is to just let the virus spread. So they have only recorded 25,000 cases of the virus but I'm sure there are hundreds of thousands more.

The Swedish per capita death rate is 3 per 10,000 which gives a lot more perspective.

You also have to have in mind that Sweden mostly have tested people that have been in need of hospitalisation and health care workers. The survival rate is about 89 procent if you end up in hospital.

Most of the elders that have died probably have not even got tested because they have died in nursing homes and a doctor have made the diagnosis that they have Corona.

Now it is predicted that the economic impact will be pretty much the same as for other nordic countries that have somewhat more stringent measures but it is also predicted that their death toll will catch up in the end of the year.

You often get the picture that business is as usual in Sweden but that is wrong.

Spud

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1707 on: May 09, 2020, 01:46:31 AM »
What it does it mean when people say that the death rate in Sweden is 12%?

12% of what? 12% of all people in Sweden are dead? So 1.2 million people in Sweden are dead? Err, no.

And the talk of Sweden's economy being trashed? Everybody's economy is going to be trashed. Sweden's probably less so because they kept schools open for children aged 16 and under and it made attendance compulsory so parents could continue to work if they wanted, without childcare being a factor for them. They kept cafes, bars, restaurants, shops and even cinemas open, but with social distancing measures in place. The Swedish government made recommendations, they didn't give orders. This is cultural. The same approach would not work in the US or the UK. I don't know enough about Australia.

The talk of COVID survivors needing months of rehabilitation, having to learn to breathe again on their own, having permanent lung damage, and reduced physical capability - let's be really clear, that's not a problem that's unique to Sweden. That's going to affect the entire planet.

Sweden has already gone through, or is currently going through it's second, third, fourth and fifth wave of the virus, if there are going to be waves.

Other countries (I live in the UK so I'm speaking from experience here) are currently soiling their underwear about what may happen as they begin to reopen. People are incredibly nervous about schools reopening and children spreading the virus. What about workplaces where using the internet to work from home isn't an option? Sweden doesn't even need to think about this. I wrote on this thread a while back about going to a large DIY store a few weeks ago here in the UK, and even with "measures" in place, the whole thing was a total nightmare. If that's how the country as a whole id going to act in the coming months, then we will definitely have a second wave of some kind.

The statistics that are really going matter in a few years time are those for all cause mortality, when we can look back, for every country and compare all cause morality numbers for 2020 with those from the previous 10 or 20 years. The country with the least variance has done something right. For example, at the moment the number of burials in Jakarta in Indonesia has gone through the roof but their COVID-19 death rate is fairly low. Hmm. Something fishy going on there. Looking at all cause mortality would highlight this. Looking at COVID-19 related deaths would not.

Right now we don't know with any degree of certainty which countries are reporting deaths that are only guaranteed COVID-19 deaths vs suspected COVID-19 deaths. BIG difference there. That's assuming that it is possible to always tell the difference between those two categories. Put another way, are people dying from COVID-19, or with COVID-19? If they're dying with COVID-19, to what extent did COVID-19 exacerbate existing conditions acting as the "straw that broke the camel's back" rather than the outright cause of death?

We also don't know which countries are only reporting deaths that take place on hospital premises vs also reporting deaths that are happening in care homes and the "community" i.e. people dying in their own homes. Some countries are probably adopting one approach in one region and the other approach in another region.

In the same way that the true number of infections isn't known, but estimated to be, I don't know, 10 times higher than the latest figures suggest, we can't even look at the numbers of deaths for each country and make accurate comparisons between them.

In the UK there is at least a 5 day lag between someone dying and their death being reported. There's another factor to take into account.

I'm definitely more interested in deaths than infections, and definitely more interested in trends over time than static numbers, but all these numbers are inaccurate and potentially misleading.

« Last Edit: May 09, 2020, 01:50:15 AM by Spud »

cerat0n1a

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1708 on: May 09, 2020, 02:31:25 AM »

We'll see. Another thing to note is that Swedes are moving around a lot less than normal. They are just doing so of their own accord rather than because of a government order. One way you can see this is that Sweden's economy is set to contract just as much as its neighbors during the COVID pandemic, even though it had no official lockdown. BTW, that also dispenses with the major purported benefit of remaining open. And even though they're seeing little benefit, they're paying a much higher cost in terms of fatalities than their neighbors, at least so far.

Suspect it's going to be a long while before we know whether Sweden's approach was better than its neighbours. Even now, it's hard to make comparisons, because Sweden has a more urban population than Finland or Norway and the death toll seems to have heavily impacted Stockholm's Somali population which Finland & Norway don't have. If what I see from Swedish friends on facebook compared with Texan friends on facebook is at all representative, the Swedes are actually observing some kind of quarantine/ lockdown rather more carefully than Americans anyway.

Plina

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1709 on: May 09, 2020, 03:26:26 AM »

And the talk of Sweden's economy being trashed? Everybody's economy is going to be trashed. Sweden's probably less so because they kept schools open for children aged 16 and under and it made attendance compulsory so parents could continue to work if they wanted, without childcare being a factor for them. They kept cafes, bars, restaurants, shops and even cinemas open, but with social distancing measures in place. The Swedish government made recommendations, they didn't give orders. This is cultural. The same approach would not work in the US or the UK. I don't know enough about Australia.

School attendance is always compulsory so it is not a result of corona. Parents can be fined if they don't see that there kids go to school. Most of the cinemas seems to be closed because it doesn't work with the rule of max 50 persons, which also makes concerts, sports event, conferences and other performance arts pretty much impossible.


We'll see. Another thing to note is that Swedes are moving around a lot less than normal. They are just doing so of their own accord rather than because of a government order. One way you can see this is that Sweden's economy is set to contract just as much as its neighbors during the COVID pandemic, even though it had no official lockdown. BTW, that also dispenses with the major purported benefit of remaining open. And even though they're seeing little benefit, they're paying a much higher cost in terms of fatalities than their neighbors, at least so far.

Suspect it's going to be a long while before we know whether Sweden's approach was better than its neighbours. Even now, it's hard to make comparisons, because Sweden has a more urban population than Finland or Norway and the death toll seems to have heavily impacted Stockholm's Somali population which Finland & Norway don't have. If what I see from Swedish friends on facebook compared with Texan friends on facebook is at all representative, the Swedes are actually observing some kind of quarantine/ lockdown rather more carefully than Americans anyway.


The air travel of our airlines is 95 % down and there is a recommendation (in Sweden interpreted as don't be an ass and travel) that to not make unnecessary trips that most of the people stick to.

The death toll to the Somali population is more a question of poverty and way of life then nationality in the same way that the latinos and black are hardest hit in US. The areas in the Swedish cities that have been most cases of infected are the poorer areas of the city where many seems to be living multigenerational or very crowded. One article told about a family were the grandpa had died.  They were 7 persons in 72 square meters, grandpa included. Grandpa did not practice social distancing.   The areas affected also have a population that is out in the society and can't work from home. Busdrivers, tram drivers, cleaners, hotel workers and people working in elder care and nursing homes. They often need to take public transportation to work.
« Last Edit: May 09, 2020, 03:33:34 AM by Plina »

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1710 on: May 09, 2020, 06:30:53 AM »
Current projections suggest that Sweden will take a similar economic hit as their neighboring countries. It isn't as though society is functioning normally there. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/30/coronavirus-sweden-economy-to-contract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html

I sincerely hope that Swedish children in schools do not start to present with the pediatric COVID-19 complications that have begun to emerge here.
« Last Edit: May 09, 2020, 07:16:58 AM by OtherJen »

LWYRUP

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1711 on: May 09, 2020, 07:12:29 AM »

We'll see. Another thing to note is that Swedes are moving around a lot less than normal. They are just doing so of their own accord rather than because of a government order. One way you can see this is that Sweden's economy is set to contract just as much as its neighbors during the COVID pandemic, even though it had no official lockdown. BTW, that also dispenses with the major purported benefit of remaining open. And even though they're seeing little benefit, they're paying a much higher cost in terms of fatalities than their neighbors, at least so far.

Suspect it's going to be a long while before we know whether Sweden's approach was better than its neighbours. Even now, it's hard to make comparisons, because Sweden has a more urban population than Finland or Norway and the death toll seems to have heavily impacted Stockholm's Somali population which Finland & Norway don't have. If what I see from Swedish friends on facebook compared with Texan friends on facebook is at all representative, the Swedes are actually observing some kind of quarantine/ lockdown rather more carefully than Americans anyway.

America is a big place, like basically a continent as much as a country.  Where I live (DC area) people are taking the lockdown very seriously.  However, it's as a very populated area with lots of travel to and from before the lockdown so we're at an elevated risk. 

I don't know the story in Texas, I thought it was too soon for them to reopen.  Are they wearing masks and distancing when they are out?

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1712 on: May 09, 2020, 08:01:02 AM »

We'll see. Another thing to note is that Swedes are moving around a lot less than normal. They are just doing so of their own accord rather than because of a government order. One way you can see this is that Sweden's economy is set to contract just as much as its neighbors during the COVID pandemic, even though it had no official lockdown. BTW, that also dispenses with the major purported benefit of remaining open. And even though they're seeing little benefit, they're paying a much higher cost in terms of fatalities than their neighbors, at least so far.

Suspect it's going to be a long while before we know whether Sweden's approach was better than its neighbours. Even now, it's hard to make comparisons, because Sweden has a more urban population than Finland or Norway and the death toll seems to have heavily impacted Stockholm's Somali population which Finland & Norway don't have. If what I see from Swedish friends on facebook compared with Texan friends on facebook is at all representative, the Swedes are actually observing some kind of quarantine/ lockdown rather more carefully than Americans anyway.

America is a big place, like basically a continent as much as a country.  Where I live (DC area) people are taking the lockdown very seriously.  However, it's as a very populated area with lots of travel to and from before the lockdown so we're at an elevated risk. 

I don't know the story in Texas, I thought it was too soon for them to reopen.  Are they wearing masks and distancing when they are out?

Texans are about as likely as the nation at large to be wearing masks.


cerat0n1a

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1713 on: May 09, 2020, 08:10:49 AM »
America is a big place, like basically a continent as much as a country.  Where I live (DC area) people are taking the lockdown very seriously.  However, it's as a very populated area with lots of travel to and from before the lockdown so we're at an elevated risk. 

I don't know the story in Texas, I thought it was too soon for them to reopen.  Are they wearing masks and distancing when they are out?

I guess Texas is a pretty big place too and it seems like there's some statewide restrictions on visits to care homes & prisons but no statewide lockdown, with some cities/counties imposing restrictions and others not.

Point that I (and others) are trying to make is that Sweden's "no lockdown" doesn't in practice actually look de facto much different to what's actually being considered lockdown elsewhere.

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1714 on: May 09, 2020, 12:43:42 PM »
Here are case and death numbers (per day) for each of the states and US territories. A few have stable rates of both, most are slowly climbing or plateaued.

I'll repost these graphs every week for reference.

DadJokes

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1715 on: May 09, 2020, 03:27:41 PM »
I mean... yes this forum revolves heavily around the USA, as does the English speaking internet in general.  But one has to at least acknowledge that an overwhelming majority of people for whom English is their primary language live in N. America and in the USA in particular.  I mean... there are 330 million people in the US. (Though something closer to 250MM are primarily English speakers)  The UK + Ireland + Australia +  New Zealand = ~95MM English speakers.   This forum was started by a Canadian who immigrated to the US and kind of radiated outwards from Colorado.

Just being picky, but you left out about 32.5 million English speaking Canadians.

Everyone knows that Canada isn't a real place.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1716 on: May 09, 2020, 03:31:29 PM »
I mean... yes this forum revolves heavily around the USA, as does the English speaking internet in general.  But one has to at least acknowledge that an overwhelming majority of people for whom English is their primary language live in N. America and in the USA in particular.  I mean... there are 330 million people in the US. (Though something closer to 250MM are primarily English speakers)  The UK + Ireland + Australia +  New Zealand = ~95MM English speakers.   This forum was started by a Canadian who immigrated to the US and kind of radiated outwards from Colorado.

Just being picky, but you left out about 32.5 million English speaking Canadians.

Everyone knows that Canada isn't a real place.

You just made Santa Claus homeless.

His former address was:
Santa Claus
North Pole, Canada
H0H 0H0



To fully understand his address, our postal code is  letter numeral letter space numeral letter numeral.  Or in mundane terms, if you rearrange the spaces, his postal code is H0 H0 H0

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1717 on: May 09, 2020, 04:32:16 PM »
The NHS released their latest update on COVID-19 deaths in the UK. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.06.20092999v1.full.pdf

Of note, though the expected co-morbidities and age are associated with death from COVID-19, it's worth noting that the majority of patients who died did not have major co-morbidities (obesity, COPD, chronic heart disease, cancers, stroke, etc) other than hypertension (74% had) and chronic kidney disease (45% had).

A meta-analysis of estimated infection fatality rates suggests it is somewhere between 0.4 to 1.0% (likely on the lower end, but data is not sufficient to determine this). This is obviously preliminary but shows a fairly consistent pattern across countries with varying levels of testing.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v1.full.pdf+html
« Last Edit: May 09, 2020, 04:36:39 PM by Abe »

Kris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1718 on: May 09, 2020, 04:36:36 PM »
I mean... yes this forum revolves heavily around the USA, as does the English speaking internet in general.  But one has to at least acknowledge that an overwhelming majority of people for whom English is their primary language live in N. America and in the USA in particular.  I mean... there are 330 million people in the US. (Though something closer to 250MM are primarily English speakers)  The UK + Ireland + Australia +  New Zealand = ~95MM English speakers.   This forum was started by a Canadian who immigrated to the US and kind of radiated outwards from Colorado.

Just being picky, but you left out about 32.5 million English speaking Canadians.

Everyone knows that Canada isn't a real place.

You just made Santa Claus homeless.

His former address was:
Santa Claus
North Pole, Canada
H0H 0H0



To fully understand his address, our postal code is  letter numeral letter space numeral letter numeral.  Or in mundane terms, if you rearrange the spaces, his postal code is H0 H0 H0

Psh. We don’t need your commie Canadian Santa...


https://www.alaska.org/detail/santa-claus-house

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1719 on: May 09, 2020, 04:48:36 PM »
I mean... yes this forum revolves heavily around the USA, as does the English speaking internet in general.  But one has to at least acknowledge that an overwhelming majority of people for whom English is their primary language live in N. America and in the USA in particular.  I mean... there are 330 million people in the US. (Though something closer to 250MM are primarily English speakers)  The UK + Ireland + Australia +  New Zealand = ~95MM English speakers.   This forum was started by a Canadian who immigrated to the US and kind of radiated outwards from Colorado.

Just being picky, but you left out about 32.5 million English speaking Canadians.

Everyone knows that Canada isn't a real place.

You just made Santa Claus homeless.

His former address was:
Santa Claus
North Pole, Canada
H0H 0H0



To fully understand his address, our postal code is  letter numeral letter space numeral letter numeral.  Or in mundane terms, if you rearrange the spaces, his postal code is H0 H0 H0

Psh. We don’t need your commie Canadian Santa...


https://www.alaska.org/detail/santa-claus-house


Naming a town North Pole is cheating.  ;-)   

I can go to London and Paris any time I want, by car.  Or Stratford.  But they aren't the ones in England and France.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2020, 08:05:55 AM by RetiredAt63 »

nereo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1720 on: May 09, 2020, 05:13:32 PM »

aspiringnomad

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1721 on: May 09, 2020, 09:46:07 PM »
Here are case and death numbers (per day) for each of the states and US territories. A few have stable rates of both, most are slowly climbing or plateaued.

I'll repost these graphs every week for reference.

Thanks for these updates. If you'll take some feedback, it might help to log your y-axes to compare changes across states more easily.
« Last Edit: May 09, 2020, 09:56:32 PM by aspiringnomad »

ROF Expat

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1722 on: May 10, 2020, 01:31:57 AM »
I mean... yes this forum revolves heavily around the USA, as does the English speaking internet in general.  But one has to at least acknowledge that an overwhelming majority of people for whom English is their primary language live in N. America and in the USA in particular.  I mean... there are 330 million people in the US. (Though something closer to 250MM are primarily English speakers)  The UK + Ireland + Australia +  New Zealand = ~95MM English speakers.   This forum was started by a Canadian who immigrated to the US and kind of radiated outwards from Colorado.

Just being picky, but you left out about 32.5 million English speaking Canadians.

Everyone knows that Canada isn't a real place.

You just made Santa Claus homeless.

His former address was:
Santa Claus
North Pole, Canada
H0H 0H0



To fully understand his address, our postal code is  letter numeral letter space numeral letter numeral.  Or in mundane terms, if you rearrange the spaces, his postal code is H0 H0 H0

Psh. We don’t need your commie Canadian Santa...


https://www.alaska.org/detail/santa-claus-house

We might not need their Santa, but Canada gave (or loaned) America Neil Young, Dan Akroyd, Joni Mitchell, Wayne Gretzky, Bobby Orr, Gordie Howe, and Ford Windsor and Coyote V8s.  And Labrador Retrievers.  Of course, they also made us take Justin Bieber, which was pretty heinous, but Labrador Retrievers make up for that.  On the whole I think we came out way ahead. 

T-Money$

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1723 on: May 10, 2020, 05:21:53 AM »
The NHS released their latest update on COVID-19 deaths in the UK. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.06.20092999v1.full.pdf

Of note, though the expected co-morbidities and age are associated with death from COVID-19, it's worth noting that the majority of patients who died did not have major co-morbidities (obesity, COPD, chronic heart disease, cancers, stroke, etc) other than hypertension (74% had) and chronic kidney disease (45% had).

A meta-analysis of estimated infection fatality rates suggests it is somewhere between 0.4 to 1.0% (likely on the lower end, but data is not sufficient to determine this). This is obviously preliminary but shows a fairly consistent pattern across countries with varying levels of testing.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v1.full.pdf+html

If I’m reading the data correctly the highest correlation of morbidity with COVID are organ transplants, morbid obesity and uncontrolled diabetes. 

In the NE US some states have 70% of their deaths from nursing homes/long term care agencies.  In PA, counties are opening up against the wishes of the Governor.

https://www.wnep.com/article/news/local/schuylkill-county/schuylkill-county-letter-to-governor/523-2e69d93f-c6c5-4bb7-9f90-2fe9aaa8e26e

Meanwhile, in Florida restaurants are open and people are enjoying the outdoors.

I was disappointed to learn Sweet Tomatoes is shutting down permanently:

 https://www.orlandosentinel.com/coronavirus/jobs-economy/os-bz-coronavirus-sweet-tomatoes-closing-permanently-confirmed-20200509-ip723rwhrffjrn6t3ovb3bmzdm-story.html

One of the healthiest restaurant options available at reasonable prices.  How ironic.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2020, 05:24:20 AM by T-Money$ »

Kris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1724 on: May 10, 2020, 06:43:32 AM »
I mean... yes this forum revolves heavily around the USA, as does the English speaking internet in general.  But one has to at least acknowledge that an overwhelming majority of people for whom English is their primary language live in N. America and in the USA in particular.  I mean... there are 330 million people in the US. (Though something closer to 250MM are primarily English speakers)  The UK + Ireland + Australia +  New Zealand = ~95MM English speakers.   This forum was started by a Canadian who immigrated to the US and kind of radiated outwards from Colorado.

Just being picky, but you left out about 32.5 million English speaking Canadians.

Everyone knows that Canada isn't a real place.

You just made Santa Claus homeless.

His former address was:
Santa Claus
North Pole, Canada
H0H 0H0



To fully understand his address, our postal code is  letter numeral letter space numeral letter numeral.  Or in mundane terms, if you rearrange the spaces, his postal code is H0 H0 H0

Psh. We don’t need your commie Canadian Santa...


https://www.alaska.org/detail/santa-claus-house

We might not need their Santa, but Canada gave (or loaned) America Neil Young, Dan Akroyd, Joni Mitchell, Wayne Gretzky, Bobby Orr, Gordie Howe, and Ford Windsor and Coyote V8s.  And Labrador Retrievers.  Of course, they also made us take Justin Bieber, which was pretty heinous, but Labrador Retrievers make up for that.  On the whole I think we came out way ahead.

And MMM. Seems a bit remiss not to point that out on this forum.

Still, Bieber is a pretty tough pill to swallow...

Seadog

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1725 on: May 10, 2020, 07:18:56 AM »
The NHS released their latest update on COVID-19 deaths in the UK. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.06.20092999v1.full.pdf

Of note, though the expected co-morbidities and age are associated with death from COVID-19, it's worth noting that the majority of patients who died did not have major co-morbidities (obesity, COPD, chronic heart disease, cancers, stroke, etc) other than hypertension (74% had) and chronic kidney disease (45% had).

A meta-analysis of estimated infection fatality rates suggests it is somewhere between 0.4 to 1.0% (likely on the lower end, but data is not sufficient to determine this). This is obviously preliminary but shows a fairly consistent pattern across countries with varying levels of testing.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v1.full.pdf+html

Whoa whoa whoa there mr fat-phobe. I learned on this forum that obesity isn't a factor for anything health wise. If anything it probably extends lfe. Maybe you're not the bigot, it's NHS. But by reposting their tripe, it's makes you their hate-enabler.

Seadog

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1726 on: May 10, 2020, 07:22:51 AM »
Some people would like to believe that being obese is not bad for their health. They deny medicine.

Some would like to believe that we can take the energy which took 300 million years to accumulate and burn through it in 300 years, and there will be no consequence to this. They deny physics.

Others would like to believe that if they just click their ruby slippers together and say, "there's no place like the other gender" they can change every cell in their bodies. They deny physiology.

Others still would like to believe that by the right combination of strongly-diluted herbs they can simply wish away a deadly disease, and don't need a vaccination. They deny medicine.

And there are, of course, those who would like to believe that this particular deadly disease was made in a lab - because if it was made in a lab, probably the cure was made in a lab, too, and so we don't have to actually do anything, just berate the makers until they give us a cure. They deny biology.

Lastly, there are those who think that locking people up in their homes for months on end is without consequence. They deny psychology.

Many of us struggle with reality, and prefer our fantasy versions. And there's always a Lysenko to tell us what we want to hear. But reality will eventually kick us in the arse, unfortunately.

Alright there Mr transphobe, if that wasn't true, how do you explain people who were born male, had children as a man, transitioned, then successfully had children as a female? If every cell in their body wasn't changed, you wouldn't expect that to be the case.

nereo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1727 on: May 10, 2020, 07:34:40 AM »
I mean... yes this forum revolves heavily around the USA, as does the English speaking internet in general.  But one has to at least acknowledge that an overwhelming majority of people for whom English is their primary language live in N. America and in the USA in particular.  I mean... there are 330 million people in the US. (Though something closer to 250MM are primarily English speakers)  The UK + Ireland + Australia +  New Zealand = ~95MM English speakers.   This forum was started by a Canadian who immigrated to the US and kind of radiated outwards from Colorado.

Just being picky, but you left out about 32.5 million English speaking Canadians.

Everyone knows that Canada isn't a real place.

You just made Santa Claus homeless.

His former address was:
Santa Claus
North Pole, Canada
H0H 0H0



To fully understand his address, our postal code is  letter numeral letter space numeral letter numeral.  Or in mundane terms, if you rearrange the spaces, his postal code is H0 H0 H0

Psh. We don’t need your commie Canadian Santa...


https://www.alaska.org/detail/santa-claus-house

We might not need their Santa, but Canada gave (or loaned) America Neil Young, Dan Akroyd, Joni Mitchell, Wayne Gretzky, Bobby Orr, Gordie Howe, and Ford Windsor and Coyote V8s.  And Labrador Retrievers.  Of course, they also made us take Justin Bieber, which was pretty heinous, but Labrador Retrievers make up for that.  On the whole I think we came out way ahead.

And MMM. Seems a bit remiss not to point that out on this forum.

Still, Bieber is a pretty tough pill to swallow...

Les Quebeçois are collectively aghast that you’ve left out their marque entertainer.

Freedomin5

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1728 on: May 10, 2020, 07:41:52 AM »
I mean... yes this forum revolves heavily around the USA, as does the English speaking internet in general.  But one has to at least acknowledge that an overwhelming majority of people for whom English is their primary language live in N. America and in the USA in particular.  I mean... there are 330 million people in the US. (Though something closer to 250MM are primarily English speakers)  The UK + Ireland + Australia +  New Zealand = ~95MM English speakers.   This forum was started by a Canadian who immigrated to the US and kind of radiated outwards from Colorado.

Just being picky, but you left out about 32.5 million English speaking Canadians.

Everyone knows that Canada isn't a real place.

You just made Santa Claus homeless.

His former address was:
Santa Claus
North Pole, Canada
H0H 0H0



To fully understand his address, our postal code is  letter numeral letter space numeral letter numeral.  Or in mundane terms, if you rearrange the spaces, his postal code is H0 H0 H0

Psh. We don’t need your commie Canadian Santa...


https://www.alaska.org/detail/santa-claus-house

We might not need their Santa, but Canada gave (or loaned) America Neil Young, Dan Akroyd, Joni Mitchell, Wayne Gretzky, Bobby Orr, Gordie Howe, and Ford Windsor and Coyote V8s.  And Labrador Retrievers.  Of course, they also made us take Justin Bieber, which was pretty heinous, but Labrador Retrievers make up for that.  On the whole I think we came out way ahead.

And MMM. Seems a bit remiss not to point that out on this forum.

Still, Bieber is a pretty tough pill to swallow...

Les Quebeçois are collectively aghast that you’ve left out their marque entertainer.

It’s okay. I’m sure their heart will go on.

FIRE 20/20

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1729 on: May 10, 2020, 01:12:02 PM »
I think it remains to be seen if Sweden is simply going through its death curve more quickly than other countries or if it is really incurring more long term damage.  We'll have to look back once this virus has run its course.  It could be that other countries are simply postponing (through lockdown measures) the inevitable.  Remember, lockdowns don't "save" anyone. They're merely a temporary "Pause" button. It's building a backlog of postponed infections while of course preventing hospitals being overwhelmed.  We may find in the long run that Sweden was successful because it didn't destroy its own economy and still ended up with a similar % of deaths.  We'll have to see once this pandemic has run its full course.

quoted for truth.

i've been saying this since day 1 and still agree.

I've been trying to stay out of this thread, but the part I bolded above is totally incorrect.  Lockdowns absolutely do save people if they delay some infections to later.  There are at least 4 major reasons for this, along with some more minor ones.  First, as you correctly mention lockdowns prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed.  This saves lives.  People who might not be able to get access to care can get it if resources are not overwhelmed, and that care can save some of those lives.  Second, treatment options will almost certainly improve with time.  Within the past few weeks alone we've learned that Hydroxychloroquine may actually harm patients, while remdesivir is showing some promise.  There is a triple antiviral therapy that's showing promise in Hong Kong.  A month ago, I don't believe any of these treatments had significant evidence for or against their use.  Hopefully in a month or two we'll have more robust data on these treatments and possibly some additional treatments.  Third, if robust testing and contact tracing practices can be put into place then we can quickly identify people who may be infected and are early in the progression of the disease.  This not only slows transmission, but it also can get people into treatment much sooner.  The treatments that are being developed above are much more effective early in the progress of the disease than later.  Fourth, if we can delay long enough then a vaccine might be available. 
For those reasons and more, delaying the progress of the virus absolutely does save lives.  It does not simply delay deaths due to the virus that would happen regardless.  It really does save lives in absolute numbers. 

T-Money$

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1730 on: May 10, 2020, 01:23:16 PM »
I mean... yes this forum revolves heavily around the USA, as does the English speaking internet in general.  But one has to at least acknowledge that an overwhelming majority of people for whom English is their primary language live in N. America and in the USA in particular.  I mean... there are 330 million people in the US. (Though something closer to 250MM are primarily English speakers)  The UK + Ireland + Australia +  New Zealand = ~95MM English speakers.   This forum was started by a Canadian who immigrated to the US and kind of radiated outwards from Colorado.

Just being picky, but you left out about 32.5 million English speaking Canadians.

Everyone knows that Canada isn't a real place.

You just made Santa Claus homeless.

His former address was:
Santa Claus
North Pole, Canada
H0H 0H0



To fully understand his address, our postal code is  letter numeral letter space numeral letter numeral.  Or in mundane terms, if you rearrange the spaces, his postal code is H0 H0 H0

Psh. We don’t need your commie Canadian Santa...


https://www.alaska.org/detail/santa-claus-house

We might not need their Santa, but Canada gave (or loaned) America Neil Young, Dan Akroyd, Joni Mitchell, Wayne Gretzky, Bobby Orr, Gordie Howe, and Ford Windsor and Coyote V8s.  And Labrador Retrievers.  Of course, they also made us take Justin Bieber, which was pretty heinous, but Labrador Retrievers make up for that.  On the whole I think we came out way ahead.

And MMM. Seems a bit remiss not to point that out on this forum.

Still, Bieber is a pretty tough pill to swallow...

Les Quebeçois are collectively aghast that you’ve left out their marque entertainer.

It’s okay. I’m sure their heart will go on.

Thanks Celine.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1731 on: May 10, 2020, 04:11:16 PM »
Agree, @FIRE 20/20

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1732 on: May 10, 2020, 06:15:13 PM »
Australia is opening up for business once again. It's state-dependent, but most students are now back at school, some pools, cafes and restaurants are now open, and social gatherings are allowed again.

The plan is to unwind even more restrictions in a month's time and then have full normality (with just some bans on travel and very large gatherings) by July.

Let's hope we can set a great example to the rest of the world that life needs to go on and the eventual economic bill for all of this needs to be moderated! Fingers crossed we come out of this with a minimal rise in infections.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1733 on: May 10, 2020, 07:26:20 PM »
My state today announced some belated changes.

Nothing much that will help the economy unfortunately - cafes, restaurants etc still limited to take-away orders, pubs and gyms still closed. I feel for the employees and owners of those establishments. But the next announcement is only 3 weeks away so fingers crossed.

Good news on the social front - we are now allowed to have gatherings up to 5 in our own homes, and we can travel (singly or jointly) outside for outdoor recreational activities. No driving distance limits have been specified so this means that all social activities (up to 5 people) and all recreational driving is now allowed. No prizes for guessing what I'll be up to this weekend!

Yay!

SuperNintendo Chalmers

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1734 on: May 10, 2020, 07:35:17 PM »
I mean... yes this forum revolves heavily around the USA, as does the English speaking internet in general.  But one has to at least acknowledge that an overwhelming majority of people for whom English is their primary language live in N. America and in the USA in particular.  I mean... there are 330 million people in the US. (Though something closer to 250MM are primarily English speakers)  The UK + Ireland + Australia +  New Zealand = ~95MM English speakers.   This forum was started by a Canadian who immigrated to the US and kind of radiated outwards from Colorado.

Just being picky, but you left out about 32.5 million English speaking Canadians.

Everyone knows that Canada isn't a real place.

You just made Santa Claus homeless.

His former address was:
Santa Claus
North Pole, Canada
H0H 0H0



To fully understand his address, our postal code is  letter numeral letter space numeral letter numeral.  Or in mundane terms, if you rearrange the spaces, his postal code is H0 H0 H0

Psh. We don’t need your commie Canadian Santa...


https://www.alaska.org/detail/santa-claus-house

We might not need their Santa, but Canada gave (or loaned) America Neil Young, Dan Akroyd, Joni Mitchell, Wayne Gretzky, Bobby Orr, Gordie Howe, and Ford Windsor and Coyote V8s.  And Labrador Retrievers.  Of course, they also made us take Justin Bieber, which was pretty heinous, but Labrador Retrievers make up for that.  On the whole I think we came out way ahead.

And MMM. Seems a bit remiss not to point that out on this forum.

Still, Bieber is a pretty tough pill to swallow...

Les Quebeçois are collectively aghast that you’ve left out their marque entertainer.

It’s okay. I’m sure their heart will go on.

Thanks Celine.

You forgot Rush, which is easily at top of that list other than Labrador Retrievers.  Canada should get the northern U.S. state of its choosing just for that. 

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1735 on: May 10, 2020, 07:36:50 PM »
The other good aspect of that, Bloop, is a reduction of arrests of people for frivolous bullshit reasons. No more, "Yes you're doing a driving lesson and education is an allowed activity, but you've driven too far... how far is too far? We can't say, we know it when we see it."

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1736 on: May 10, 2020, 07:42:52 PM »
The other good aspect of that, Bloop, is a reduction of arrests of people for frivolous bullshit reasons. No more, "Yes you're doing a driving lesson and education is an allowed activity, but you've driven too far... how far is too far? We can't say, we know it when we see it."

I think the only reason Dan allowed socialising is because the country's biggest sport wanted a resumption in our state which far and away provides the most revenue to it, so professional football players were urged to begin training again. But you can't have young, not very clever professional athletes congregating together without allowing the plebs to do so again, hence the relaxed sports/socialising rules. I'm sure if the AFL told Dan to allow football players to attend restaurants, he'd open cafes back up too.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1737 on: May 10, 2020, 08:09:54 PM »

You forgot Rush, which is easily at top of that list other than Labrador Retrievers.  Canada should get the northern U.S. state of its choosing just for that.

How come Labs get all the love?  What about Newfoundlands?  And Nova Scotia Duck Tolling Retrievers?

Also Bare Naked Ladies, Guess Who, etc. etc.

ROF Expat

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1738 on: May 11, 2020, 04:32:41 AM »

You forgot Rush, which is easily at top of that list other than Labrador Retrievers.  Canada should get the northern U.S. state of its choosing just for that.

How come Labs get all the love?  What about Newfoundlands?  And Nova Scotia Duck Tolling Retrievers?

Also Bare Naked Ladies, Guess Who, etc. etc.

My initial list was meant to point out the many positive (and one negative) things Canada has produced, but was never meant to be exhaustive.  A more complete list would certainly include Rush, Newfie dogs, BNL, Guess Who, and Celine Dion.  I would also add The Band (mostly Canadian), Bagels, Leonard Cohen, and the world's finest Brook Trout fishing.  Nanaimo bars might get an "honorable mention."  But, if I had gone on further, I would have felt compelled to raise some of Canada's more negative exports to the US, like Arctic air masses and Polar Vortices.  If you stop sending us the latter two, maybe the US can discuss curtailing acid rain... 

I don't think I have ever seen a "Toller" dog before, so I learned something new today. 

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1739 on: May 11, 2020, 05:06:25 AM »

You forgot Rush, which is easily at top of that list other than Labrador Retrievers.  Canada should get the northern U.S. state of its choosing just for that.

How come Labs get all the love?  What about Newfoundlands?  And Nova Scotia Duck Tolling Retrievers?

Also Bare Naked Ladies, Guess Who, etc. etc.

My initial list was meant to point out the many positive (and one negative) things Canada has produced, but was never meant to be exhaustive.  A more complete list would certainly include Rush, Newfie dogs, BNL, Guess Who, and Celine Dion.  I would also add The Band (mostly Canadian), Bagels, Leonard Cohen, and the world's finest Brook Trout fishing.  Nanaimo bars might get an "honorable mention."  But, if I had gone on further, I would have felt compelled to raise some of Canada's more negative exports to the US, like Arctic air masses and Polar Vortices.  If you stop sending us the latter two, maybe the US can discuss curtailing acid rain... 

I don't think I have ever seen a "Toller" dog before, so I learned something new today.

I though the Arctic Air Masses came from Alaska?  Maybe we can blame the Russians and say they come from Siberia?   ;-)

The US is much improved re the acid rain.  Keep it up and we will start needing to add sulphur to our farm fertilizers.  ;-)

Tollers are great little dogs.

nereo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1740 on: May 11, 2020, 05:28:13 AM »
Curiously, Nanaimo bars are almost unheard of in the US outside of the PNW. 
There was even a posh NY restaurant that tried to serve them and got harassed and hacked by some vigilante Canadians for “appropriating” a Canadian treasure.  Oddly, on the menu the attributed the tasty dessert to BC - it wasn’t like they were claiming to have invented the confection.

Also we should add Arcade Fire to the list.  And even though I’m not a huge fan of their music, I’ll gladly trade your “Rush” for our “Rush.

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1741 on: May 11, 2020, 06:13:17 AM »
Meanwhile here in Colorado....

https://castlerocknewspress.net/stories/castle-rock-business-draws-crowd-against-public-health-orders,29872

Supposedly a 2 hour wait to get a table and standing room only.

They had an interview with the owners and they were talking about how they are not going to be forced to wear masks because it infringes on there freedom and if it results in an outbreak that all of their customers are all adults an ok with it.

Even prior to stunts like this our daily new case rate has been going up, we have low testing rate and the governor said their focus is not on testing people with mild symptoms or contact tracing but on extensive testing in old folk homes, people that are in the hospital in critical care and poor neighborhoods.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the next week or two

I used to be proud to live in Colorado now I am shaking my head in disgust


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frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1742 on: May 11, 2020, 06:56:44 AM »
Don't forget that Canada also gave us Nickelback.  Never forget. 

Davnasty

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1743 on: May 11, 2020, 07:17:23 AM »
Don't forget that Canada also gave us Nickelback.  Never forget.

Oh right, can't forget that one. Those guys are great.

Spud

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1744 on: May 11, 2020, 07:19:53 AM »
Meanwhile here in Colorado....

https://castlerocknewspress.net/stories/castle-rock-business-draws-crowd-against-public-health-orders,29872

Supposedly a 2 hour wait to get a table and standing room only.

They had an interview with the owners and they were talking about how they are not going to be forced to wear masks because it infringes on there freedom and if it results in an outbreak that all of their customers are all adults an ok with it.

This looks like a photograph that could have been taken in May 2019, not May 2020.

This makes me wonder if this is one part of one state, what other similar disregard is taking place elsewhere? Opening a restaurant like this and having this many people enter the premises and then continuing to serve them is pretty much outright pandemic denial. It's a miniature "super spreader" event. There is no social distancing, no masks, no hand sanitiser. Even if there were masks and hand sanitiser, it would still be tragic because those things are very much secondary to social distancing.

I could only see the photograph, I couldn't see any text with the article here in the UK. Was there any mention of the police shutting it down and the owners being fined, or is this totally fine in Colorado?

I've just quickly Googled and had a read of this article - https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-state-by-state-guide-to-coronavirus-lockdowns-11584749351

It seems like most states are now unlocked and everything written in that article seems very much open to interpretation, so I'd bet that people that aren't cautious are just carrying on as per the Colorado restaurant in @the_fixer 's post.

========

Here in the UK, we're opening up. The Prime Minister announced last night on national TV are bunch of stuff that didn't really mean anything, hinted at lockdown being lifted in the future if things go well and certainly didn't say that lockdown was lifted entirely and instantaneously. The result?

The public transport network in parts of London was overcrowded this morning, worse than the Colorado restaurant above, there are way more people on the streets and in parks as we can now exercise (i.e. fck about outdoors) as much as we want rather than just for 30 minutes per day and there's a load more traffic on the roads as people are now allowed to drive anywhere in order to go for a walk.

Also, if people promise to maintain a distance of 2 metres (6 feet 6 inches) they can meet other people from outside their home, as long as group size doesn't exceed 2 people at any one time. These rules are so vague and easily open to abuse that they're basically un-policeable and have just opened to floodgates to a second wave. So many people will now be hanging around and meeting up in groups in "secret" because the very limited number of police simply cannot be everywhere at once.

« Last Edit: May 11, 2020, 07:23:26 AM by Spud »

Jon Bon

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1745 on: May 11, 2020, 07:38:16 AM »
Interesting prospective from the NYT

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/10/health/coronavirus-plague-pandemic-history.html

Basically an pandemic ends in 2 ways.

1. Is medically - basically a vaccine or effective treatment.
2. Is socially - we just get used to living with it, and deal with the effects of it long term.

This is definitely I think how many of us are feeling. We just got tired of the fear and uncertainty. We decided that we are going to move past it and we will control what we can and deal with what we cant.

We have reached our limits of lock-down/isolation/emotional stress. Time to move forward as the way we were living before was just not sustainable. We've accepted that avoiding crowds and masking are probably with us for the near future.








GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1746 on: May 11, 2020, 07:52:58 AM »
Don't forget that Canada also gave us Nickelback.  Never forget.

Oh right, can't forget that one. Those guys are great.

They're great.  Canada's greatest human rights violation.  :P

wenchsenior

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1747 on: May 11, 2020, 09:22:05 AM »
Interesting prospective from the NYT

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/10/health/coronavirus-plague-pandemic-history.html

Basically an pandemic ends in 2 ways.

1. Is medically - basically a vaccine or effective treatment.
2. Is socially - we just get used to living with it, and deal with the effects of it long term.

This is definitely I think how many of us are feeling. We just got tired of the fear and uncertainty. We decided that we are going to move past it and we will control what we can and deal with what we cant.

We have reached our limits of lock-down/isolation/emotional stress. Time to move forward as the way we were living before was just not sustainable. We've accepted that avoiding crowds and masking are probably with us for the near future.

I think that former generations who dealt with things like world wars would laugh their asses off at how quickly Americans now excuse themselves for 'reaching their limits'.  If people weren't dying, it really would be comic. 

Kris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1748 on: May 11, 2020, 09:23:59 AM »
Interesting prospective from the NYT

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/10/health/coronavirus-plague-pandemic-history.html

Basically an pandemic ends in 2 ways.

1. Is medically - basically a vaccine or effective treatment.
2. Is socially - we just get used to living with it, and deal with the effects of it long term.

This is definitely I think how many of us are feeling. We just got tired of the fear and uncertainty. We decided that we are going to move past it and we will control what we can and deal with what we cant.

We have reached our limits of lock-down/isolation/emotional stress. Time to move forward as the way we were living before was just not sustainable. We've accepted that avoiding crowds and masking are probably with us for the near future.

The problem with option 2 is that we really haven't yet got any idea what "living with it" would look like. We've been flattening the curve instead of just letting it spread. Which I think is given people who are advocating for that option a false sense of security.

Jon Bon

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1749 on: May 11, 2020, 10:16:27 AM »
Interesting prospective from the NYT

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/10/health/coronavirus-plague-pandemic-history.html

Basically an pandemic ends in 2 ways.

1. Is medically - basically a vaccine or effective treatment.
2. Is socially - we just get used to living with it, and deal with the effects of it long term.

This is definitely I think how many of us are feeling. We just got tired of the fear and uncertainty. We decided that we are going to move past it and we will control what we can and deal with what we cant.

We have reached our limits of lock-down/isolation/emotional stress. Time to move forward as the way we were living before was just not sustainable. We've accepted that avoiding crowds and masking are probably with us for the near future.

The problem with option 2 is that we really haven't yet got any idea what "living with it" would look like. We've been flattening the curve instead of just letting it spread. Which I think is given people who are advocating for that option a false sense of security.

Oh I agree with that, we have no idea. But folks are going to live their lives as they see fit. Some are going to be really conservative and some are going to say IDGAF and go back to normal as well as everything in between. People will die, but life will also go on in our "new normal".