Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 253619 times)

LWYRUP

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2000 on: May 16, 2020, 10:46:19 AM »
@mathlete, I think my original words may have been a bit too harsh and not fully expressed what I was trying to express.  I take the good with the bad when I listen to these sources.  I recognize the good.

I think it is fair to also recognize the bad.  You note you have heard others express my view over and over again.  Perhaps there is a reason for that.  As you probably know, there are multiple former NYT ombudsmen (ombudspeople?) and NPR executives that have voiced the same concerns I have. 

It's lazy to dismiss NPR and PBS outright.  It's also lazy to just ignore a consistent stream of criticism from many educated people, including many former high-level employees of these very organizations.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2001 on: May 16, 2020, 11:22:35 AM »
@mathlete, I think my original words may have been a bit too harsh and not fully expressed what I was trying to express.  I take the good with the bad when I listen to these sources.  I recognize the good.

I think it is fair to also recognize the bad.  You note you have heard others express my view over and over again.  Perhaps there is a reason for that.  As you probably know, there are multiple former NYT ombudsmen (ombudspeople?) and NPR executives that have voiced the same concerns I have. 

It's lazy to dismiss NPR and PBS outright.  It's also lazy to just ignore a consistent stream of criticism from many educated people, including many former high-level employees of these very organizations.

I don't ignore the criticism of the outlets I consume. I just don't think the criticism is substantive enough to merit much change.

For what it's worth, I am also a very global capitalism friendly person. I also like The Economist and the WSJ. I used to subscribe to both. I stopped near the end of 2016, not because I thought they did bad work, but because my journalism time and money needed to go towards confronting a new and emerging risk. I hope to be able to return as a subscriber soon. We can leave it at that, lol.

Luckily, NPR produces a ton of good financial content too. Just last month, they did a radio piece on what happens when rent checks stop coming in. They interviewed a tenant and her landlord, both of whom were portrayed as excellent people. And they talked to academics about the implication for mortgage originators, collateralize loan holders, and the government.

It's not like they portrayed the tenant as a saint and the landlord as capitalist Satan. As a landlord myself, I can assure you that I'd be pretty turned off by an outlet that did that.

I know that NPR, PBS, the NYT and WaPo have blind spots. Where I disagree, is that they need to materially change to cover these blind spots.  It's probably no surprise that I'm fairly democrat friendly. Well PBS just did a piece on the Biden sexual assault allegation where they interviewed 74 former staffers. I think PBS has me covered on this issue. I don't, for example, think they should start acting more like Fox News opinion shows, or Karl Rove's WSJ OpEd column to satisfy arbitrary standards of "fairness". In other words, I don't consider this to be a true blind spot. They are doing a better job on this issue than almost everyone else. The same goes for a lot of heavily politicized issues. The media I consume becomes a punching bag for "ignoring" these issues when it is convenient, but much of this criticism is made in bad faith. If a true blind spot emerges, I can just go to another news outlet.



LWYRUP

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2002 on: May 16, 2020, 11:31:14 AM »

@mathlete, I suppose the difference is that I do think the criticism is substantive enough to compromise the otherwise high quality work these outlets produce, and specifically I like that WSJ chooses to publish pieces from people who identify as liberal and people who do not (yes, like Karl Rove).  I do wish the WSJ would do a better job of taking large corporations to task (honestly, they could do it as a way to support small corporations and be even more pro-capitalism, but I think their readership and advertising dollars realistically prevent this from happening), but I happen to find that particular bias less irritating.  So, in short, we both gravitate to news sources that already reflects our previously determined viewpoints.  There's a certain efficiency to all of this, but it's important to at least recognize that this is what's going on. 

LWYRUP

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2003 on: May 16, 2020, 11:37:18 AM »
Unrelated note, I have not read a single article about Joe Biden in the past few months.  I already plan to vote for him as the lesser of two evils, and so the point is moot.  So I also simply prefer outlets that only devote a portion of their resources to partisan political things and spend the majority of their time on other matters.   

deborah

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2004 on: May 16, 2020, 01:07:14 PM »
Because hand washing and social distancing etc. that weíre employing to reduce covid19 also reduce the incidence of other respiratory infections, in Australia (where weíre going into winter and the flu season), flu has been substantially reduced this year. See https://www.newscientist.com/article/2242113-australia-sees-huge-decrease-in-flu-cases-due-to-coronavirus-measures/ for example.

I'm on a military base and our medical folks have reported that they're seeing a lot less communicable diseases as well. Everything from gastrointestinal diseases to regular colds.

As I tell my Soldiers frequently "wash your filthy ****ing hands". Then I watch them decide to share a cigarette :facepalm: It's like dealing with children sometimes.
Yes, itís ALL communicable diseases. Weíre even getting a huge reduction in SDIs! Itís possible that weíre going to have a lower death rate this year even counting the covid19 deaths. As weíve had less than 100 of them, and we usually have roughly 1500 flu deaths in a year, weíre certainly on track to do so. Of course, the year, and covid19, have a long way to go, and second and third waves will happen.

On the US (and the UK). Weíre not laughing. Itís very sad. Weíre really worried. Iím particularly worried about (in no particular order):

1. This disease appears to be one of the more horrible ones around. Iím not at all convinced that itís one that you even want everyone to have a vaccine for. Itís appearing in sperm of men whoíve had it and it appears to have some really bad side effects, particularly in children. It seems to encourage the immune system to overreact... As some vaccines act as if youíve had the disease, will a vaccine have these side effects?

2. Some countries (or parts) appear to be trying for herd immunity and opening up without beating the curve, yet they have had less than 10% of their population get it. As herd immunity tends to need 60% to get it, are we going to see at least 6 times the deaths that have already happened in these places?

3. Does herd immunity exist for this disease? Many people appear to have it more than once. Is it like malaria, where, once youíve had it, you can get recurrences of it forever?

4. As populous English speaking countries and Western democracies appear to be following the path of more deaths than countries like China, how will the world look in a couple of years?

LWYRUP

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2005 on: May 16, 2020, 01:49:02 PM »
On the US (and the UK). Weíre not laughing. Itís very sad. Weíre really worried. Iím particularly worried about (in no particular order):

1. This disease appears to be one of the more horrible ones around. Iím not at all convinced that itís one that you even want everyone to have a vaccine for. Itís appearing in sperm of men whoíve had it and it appears to have some really bad side effects, particularly in children. It seems to encourage the immune system to overreact... As some vaccines act as if youíve had the disease, will a vaccine have these side effects?

2. Some countries (or parts) appear to be trying for herd immunity and opening up without beating the curve, yet they have had less than 10% of their population get it. As herd immunity tends to need 60% to get it, are we going to see at least 6 times the deaths that have already happened in these places?

3. Does herd immunity exist for this disease? Many people appear to have it more than once. Is it like malaria, where, once youíve had it, you can get recurrences of it forever?

4. As populous English speaking countries and Western democracies appear to be following the path of more deaths than countries like China, how will the world look in a couple of years?

Well put.  The herd immunity plan is reckless given the lack of available information.  We need to understand this disease far better before we can responsibly choose that option. 

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2006 on: May 16, 2020, 02:15:59 PM »
Hey internet world, what's the international consensus to what's happening in the States?

From the UK - You're right, you are a laughing stock. We are having a bad time of it as well, things are not going well, we are opening up prematurely and making things steadily worse, but you guys are in a different league (along with Brazil).

Personally, I'd summarise it by saying that this pandemic highlights the fact that the US is a continent with 50 separate countries that all happen to speak the same language, but you're definitely NOT functioning like one country. That's why things are falling down, that and widespread pandemic denial among the gun nuts.

Also, again, per capita deaths in the UK are almost twice as a high as they are in the US according to this chart (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) and my city (suburbs of DC) locked down before London and I was shocked after I had been in quarantine for several weeks to see how packed and unmasked the London subways were.  The City's response to the virus was to REDUCE train service, thus increasing crowding, which made no sense. 

As you know, I oppose the premature reopening in certain parts of the US.  But your claims do not square up with the data -- if I were from the UK, my concern right now would be try to get the beam out of my own country's eye first.

Yeah, god forbid we rely on facts and data. [/sarcasm]

Things suck here. They also suck in the UK and many other countries. Laughing at othersí misfortune is generally a shitty thing to do.

T-Money$

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2007 on: May 16, 2020, 02:54:56 PM »
On the US (and the UK). Weíre not laughing. Itís very sad. Weíre really worried. Iím particularly worried about (in no particular order):

1. This disease appears to be one of the more horrible ones around. Iím not at all convinced that itís one that you even want everyone to have a vaccine for. Itís appearing in sperm of men whoíve had it and it appears to have some really bad side effects, particularly in children. It seems to encourage the immune system to overreact... As some vaccines act as if youíve had the disease, will a vaccine have these side effects?

2. Some countries (or parts) appear to be trying for herd immunity and opening up without beating the curve, yet they have had less than 10% of their population get it. As herd immunity tends to need 60% to get it, are we going to see at least 6 times the deaths that have already happened in these places?

3. Does herd immunity exist for this disease? Many people appear to have it more than once. Is it like malaria, where, once youíve had it, you can get recurrences of it forever?

4. As populous English speaking countries and Western democracies appear to be following the path of more deaths than countries like China, how will the world look in a couple of years?

Well put.  The herd immunity plan is reckless given the lack of available information.  We need to understand this disease far better before we can responsibly choose that option.

Iím curious, at what point would herd immunity not be reckless?   What data would you need to see?   How else do we need to understand COVID?

Without acknowledging it, it seems like much of the western world is moving towards the ďSweden modelĒ because we donít frankly have a choice.

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2008 on: May 16, 2020, 03:11:04 PM »
Heres an updated graph of cases per day and deaths per day for each state. It appears that some are downtrending while the majority are steady and low numbers per day. California and Texas are both increasing, worrying signs since they are the two most populous states. Otherwise no major changes in trajectories from last week.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2009 on: May 16, 2020, 04:28:37 PM »
If you ascribe to a specific world view and want to make sure that world view is constantly reaffirmed in subtle ways and virtually never challenged, that is accurate.

How does reading/listening to/watching original, fact-based reporting reaffirm and not challenge a person?

Look, I personally find PBS and NPR to consistently promote certain world views, political beliefs and political parties rather than try to examine arguments from various perspectives in a manner I would consider fair.  And, yes, absolutely Fox News and MSNBC do the same and far worse and a far lower level of intellectual sophistication to boot.  But I personally world prefer more intellectual diversity on those stations.  NPR in particular, PBS I think does a better job of presenting balanced coverage (and just focusing more on general knowledge and not just all politics all the time). 

Personally, I prefer the financial press, such as WSJ, Economist, Financial Times, etc. for more balanced coverage.  They have the downside of constantly being in the tank for globalized capitalism (which I recognize), so I need to balance that coverage with more progressive sources and more populist sources to get a full picture of the various arguments for any particular debate.  I also have to manage this within a larger goal of pursuing a Low Information Diet, so when possible I just read books and such.  But I have a fair amount of accumulated knowledge from wasting scads of time on the internet in the past so I can usually understand the context of a given debate and guess how a particular news outlet will respond without putting too much time or effort into it. 

I agree that if you ascribe 100% to the consensus view of those who produce NPR and PBS then you will enjoy they coverage.  And, yes, I generally have fairly friendly views towards globalized capitalism so you could easily accuse me of doing the same when I roll my eyes and switch off NPR and turn on my WSJ podcast. 

I've kind of given up on thinking there's any one great neutral source and so I think it's best to just try to read widely and understand everyone's got their own motivations.

Everything you have mentioned is US based. Why not try reading/watching international sources?  It would give a broader perspective.

MoseyingAlong

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2010 on: May 16, 2020, 05:25:35 PM »
If you ascribe to a specific world view and want to make sure that world view is constantly reaffirmed in subtle ways and virtually never challenged, that is accurate.

How does reading/listening to/watching original, fact-based reporting reaffirm and not challenge a person?

Look, I personally find PBS and NPR to consistently promote certain world views, political beliefs and political parties rather than try to examine arguments from various perspectives in a manner I would consider fair.  And, yes, absolutely Fox News and MSNBC do the same and far worse and a far lower level of intellectual sophistication to boot.  But I personally world prefer more intellectual diversity on those stations.  NPR in particular, PBS I think does a better job of presenting balanced coverage (and just focusing more on general knowledge and not just all politics all the time). 

Personally, I prefer the financial press, such as WSJ, Economist, Financial Times, etc. for more balanced coverage.  They have the downside of constantly being in the tank for globalized capitalism (which I recognize), so I need to balance that coverage with more progressive sources and more populist sources to get a full picture of the various arguments for any particular debate.  I also have to manage this within a larger goal of pursuing a Low Information Diet, so when possible I just read books and such.  But I have a fair amount of accumulated knowledge from wasting scads of time on the internet in the past so I can usually understand the context of a given debate and guess how a particular news outlet will respond without putting too much time or effort into it. 

I agree that if you ascribe 100% to the consensus view of those who produce NPR and PBS then you will enjoy they coverage.  And, yes, I generally have fairly friendly views towards globalized capitalism so you could easily accuse me of doing the same when I roll my eyes and switch off NPR and turn on my WSJ podcast. 

I've kind of given up on thinking there's any one great neutral source and so I think it's best to just try to read widely and understand everyone's got their own motivations.

Everything you have mentioned is US based. Why not try reading/watching international sources?  It would give a broader perspective.

Both The Economist and the Financial Times are London-based, not US. I think the Economist in particular is a good source for a review of world events.
Also I hear a lot of BBC World on NPR stations.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2011 on: May 16, 2020, 06:28:50 PM »
If you ascribe to a specific world view and want to make sure that world view is constantly reaffirmed in subtle ways and virtually never challenged, that is accurate.

How does reading/listening to/watching original, fact-based reporting reaffirm and not challenge a person?

Look, I personally find PBS and NPR to consistently promote certain world views, political beliefs and political parties rather than try to examine arguments from various perspectives in a manner I would consider fair.  And, yes, absolutely Fox News and MSNBC do the same and far worse and a far lower level of intellectual sophistication to boot.  But I personally world prefer more intellectual diversity on those stations.  NPR in particular, PBS I think does a better job of presenting balanced coverage (and just focusing more on general knowledge and not just all politics all the time). 

Personally, I prefer the financial press, such as WSJ, Economist, Financial Times, etc. for more balanced coverage.  They have the downside of constantly being in the tank for globalized capitalism (which I recognize), so I need to balance that coverage with more progressive sources and more populist sources to get a full picture of the various arguments for any particular debate.  I also have to manage this within a larger goal of pursuing a Low Information Diet, so when possible I just read books and such.  But I have a fair amount of accumulated knowledge from wasting scads of time on the internet in the past so I can usually understand the context of a given debate and guess how a particular news outlet will respond without putting too much time or effort into it. 

I agree that if you ascribe 100% to the consensus view of those who produce NPR and PBS then you will enjoy they coverage.  And, yes, I generally have fairly friendly views towards globalized capitalism so you could easily accuse me of doing the same when I roll my eyes and switch off NPR and turn on my WSJ podcast. 

I've kind of given up on thinking there's any one great neutral source and so I think it's best to just try to read widely and understand everyone's got their own motivations.

Everything you have mentioned is US based. Why not try reading/watching international sources?  It would give a broader perspective.

Both The Economist and the Financial Times are London-based, not US. I think the Economist in particular is a good source for a review of world events.
Also I hear a lot of BBC World on NPR stations.
[/quote

I don't read many financial papers so missed that those are London based. You are definitely getting out of a one-country viewpoint.

Gremlin

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2012 on: May 16, 2020, 08:53:33 PM »
Re: Flattening the Curve

I really liked that article that was shared a little further back showing the most common sources of exposure (enclosed spaces for long periods of time, direct sneeze / cough situation, public restrooms) and explaining what is not common (getting ill just because someone walked by you, touching a random surface that wasn't recently touched by someone infected).

This gives me hope that we can chart some sort of middle course where certain things are allowed again (e.g., I can take my kids camping without fear as long as we are careful) but other things are still locked down.  It also confirms for me that all of this discussion of some sort of V shaped recovery is off, because it's going to take a long time before certain things are back to normal (e.g., I'm going to be leery of public restrooms for a long while now, which is going to limit certain activities). 

Sometimes I see what I consider to be a false dichotomy on how to respond to the virus.  People say things like "either you lock down to it's totally gone or just give up and things in the middle are the worst of both worlds."  I disagree.  We know better know what prevention measures are the most effective and what are the least.  Full eradication in somewhere like the USA or Western Europe is probably bordering on impossible right now.  But we can keep the spread rate low, make sure the hospitals are not overwhelmed and have full PPE and buy time as we continue to improve on testing, tracing, treatment, etc. 

I do remain concerned for the parts of the USA where the curve is still rising AND things are re-opening.  Re-opening should only happen AFTER the curve has flattened and started to decline, and should be done cautiously to keep the rate of spread ideally below 1 so that cases continue to decline (even if just slowly).  Thankfully, where I live is still under pretty strict lockdown.

@LWYRUP  This was a really good post above.  Just wanted to make sure that it got the attention it deserved and didn't get lost in the subsequent conversation on media fragmentation / news quality.

I agree re the implications for a V recovery.  There's a lot of businesses that need to completely redesign the way they operate.

I spoke to a friend who owns a restaurant.  Theoretically they can open now with very limited capacity.  But even when they go back to the "new normal" they need to completely rethink their business model.  In Australia the social distancing requirements put them at 1 person per 4 square metres, even when they are allowed to open at capacity (in theory, mid-July).  With this sort of limits on capacity, they will only be able to do roughly half the covers that they could do before.  At the moment and until September, the Federal Govt is subsidising their wage bill.  But once they have to bear those costs again, half the covers from prior is nowhere near breakeven.  Even if he lays off a third of his staff in September, he'll still need to put menu prices up ~50% to cover fixed costs - and that assumes he doesn't lose patronage.

Another friend talked about his CBD office.  Again, theoretically they can go back to the office now.  But the office building he works in houses 3000 employees and has a bank of 16 lifts.  Each lift needs to operate at a capacity of no more than 2 people per journey to meet the 'new normal' social distancing requirements.  There is a bottleneck in physically getting people in and out of the building that can't be easily addressed.  So they've been told to keep working from home until at least August.  A number of other CBD highrises have the same issue.  Which has a flow on effect to the coffee shops, cafes, restaurants, convenience stores etc nearby.

None of that suggests a V-shaped recovery is imminent.

I also agree that the article does allow for reflection on personal choices.  In the event that we socialise, are we indoors or out?  Am I using public restrooms or not?  Watching my daughter train at an indoor netball facility intuitively seemed relatively low risk, but I'd much rather see her training on outdoor courts now.  No chance I'm stepping foot in a public gym in the coming months, regardless of what the guidelines say - I'll continue to exercise outdoors.  I felt like this article did a very good job at articulating WHY some of the restrictions have been put in place and how I can make personal choices to mitigate these risks.

LWYRUP

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2013 on: May 16, 2020, 09:46:50 PM »
@Gremlin, you raise a good point that social distancing guidelines are going to obliterate margins in many industries.  Restaurants have fixed costs (rent and wages) and rely on thin margins in the best of times.  They only way they can sustain these measures is rent concession, wage concession or higher prices. 

Higher prices are going to be a stretch when the economy is bad, and rent concessions will impact property values.  I'm guessing successful restaurants will get by on a little bit of all three, but also many will simply fold, and may just not reopen at all. 

I'm not sure what to do about this though.  I'm not going to a restaurant anytime soon. 

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2014 on: May 16, 2020, 11:25:15 PM »
Looked at another way: previously, economic incentives encouraged dense living and working, and a large volume of custom.

Now they won't.

So this is not a good time to own commercial real estate, or a franchise restaurant, etc. But those small shops can do alright. I don't mind that much - it means people living, working and shopping more locally, driving less and walking more, and proportionally more people employed. A single McDs puts out as many burgers daily as 10-20 corner burger joints, but provides less jobs than they would, and is more likely to be a place you have to drive to, the owners will never know the customers personally, and so on. I don't mind if we see more small businesses locally.

Of course, government may destroy this with paperwork and procedures to prevent infection; when was the last time a government of any political persuasion favoured small business over large?

rachellynn99

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2015 on: May 17, 2020, 02:02:44 AM »
New York Magazine with an article arguing what I have been saying for a couple weeks now -- why aren't our policies geared towards protecting the elderly?

"Radical thought ó perhaps our public policy should start from the most vulnerable, doing what we can to protect them, and proceed outward, and upward, from there."

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/05/covid-targets-the-elderly-why-dont-our-prevention-efforts.html

In my state, over 80% of the covid deaths were from nursing/long term care homes.

At least I'm sure those places have ample access to PPE for their staff.... :\

In my state prisons are another huge contribution to the COVID numbers. They have started reporting number of cases withing prisons and then the number from the "community" so that our numbers don't look so crazy. They also have started letting many inmates out early to reduce the spread in prisons.

rachellynn99

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2016 on: May 17, 2020, 02:07:26 AM »
In Arkansas we are starting to see things re open. Restaurants can open with 33% capacity with more allowances starting soon. All retail businesses can open. State parks and state park lodging and camping are all reopened. Farmer's markets are open with precautions like vendors wearing masks and providing sanitizer. Yesterday we had a pretty normal Saturday, got up early- went to the Farmer's market, took kids to a park to hike and picnic.

Large gatherings are still prohibited for now, but that's honestly about it. And school is out here for the summer anyway.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2017 on: May 17, 2020, 04:12:25 AM »
I went to a hiking spot about an hour away from the city today and boy oh boy was it packed, families, couples, children, the whole lot. Was wonderful to see everyone out and about enjoying the sunshine.

My state has finally been thawing from the lockdown and it's a wonderful thing to see. In two weeks our restaurants and cafes will be able to open (for dining in - take away has always been allowed) in a limited capacity and schools will be back.

I think life is getting back to normal here in Australia. Our daily state cases are around 10-15, of which about half are linked to two known clusters, and a quarter or so are from known quarantine zones (eg overseas travellers) and the rest are unknown. But with such a low number, I think it is definitely the right time to say without hesitation that we have beaten the virus.

KBecks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2018 on: May 17, 2020, 09:23:56 AM »
We were so pleased to have an extended family dinner on Friday night.  Still laying low for the most part but I also went for a socially distanced walk and chat with a neighbor.

kenmoremmm

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2019 on: May 17, 2020, 08:52:50 PM »
I think life is getting back to normal here in Australia. Our daily state cases are around 10-15, of which about half are linked to two known clusters, and a quarter or so are from known quarantine zones (eg overseas travellers) and the rest are unknown. But with such a low number, I think it is definitely the right time to say without hesitation that we have beaten the virus.

i guess you'll be restricting flights in/out of the country for the next 2 years until (if) a vaccine is developed then. because if you're not, there is no beating the virus. i guess every person flying into you country will be self-quarantined for 14 days upon arrival. good luck with that policy for years.

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2020 on: May 17, 2020, 09:15:40 PM »
I think life is getting back to normal here in Australia. Our daily state cases are around 10-15, of which about half are linked to two known clusters, and a quarter or so are from known quarantine zones (eg overseas travellers) and the rest are unknown. But with such a low number, I think it is definitely the right time to say without hesitation that we have beaten the virus.

i guess you'll be restricting flights in/out of the country for the next 2 years until (if) a vaccine is developed then. because if you're not, there is no beating the virus. i guess every person flying into you country will be self-quarantined for 14 days upon arrival. good luck with that policy for years.

Yep. Normal international travel will not resume here for a very long time.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2021 on: May 17, 2020, 09:43:23 PM »
I think life is getting back to normal here in Australia. Our daily state cases are around 10-15, of which about half are linked to two known clusters, and a quarter or so are from known quarantine zones (eg overseas travellers) and the rest are unknown. But with such a low number, I think it is definitely the right time to say without hesitation that we have beaten the virus.

i guess you'll be restricting flights in/out of the country for the next 2 years until (if) a vaccine is developed then. because if you're not, there is no beating the virus. i guess every person flying into you country will be self-quarantined for 14 days upon arrival. good luck with that policy for years.

Yep. Normal international travel will not resume here for a very long time.

Seems pretty hard to imagine that that level of shutdown could be sustainable. What if no reasonably effective and safe vaccine is ever discovered? Could you picture Australia quarantining itself forever? Apparently, international travelers spend ~US$50BB/year in Australia. Do you think Australia will just walk away from all that money? It's not just tourism, either. International business, in general, often requires business people to physically travel to Australia. If international business people who want to invest money in Australia have to quarantine for 14 days, every time, they're just not going to go to Australia.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2022 on: May 17, 2020, 10:02:48 PM »
If no vaccine is ever developed, then either the virus mutates to a less-lethal form or otherwise fizzles out to become a low-level localised danger like yellow fever or the like, or it becomes just another common, accepted and largely ignored cause of death like cancer or heart disease.

wanderlustNW

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2023 on: May 17, 2020, 10:30:02 PM »
If no vaccine is ever developed, then either the virus mutates to a less-lethal form or otherwise fizzles out to become a low-level localised danger like yellow fever or the like, or it becomes just another common, accepted and largely ignored cause of death like cancer or heart disease.

And you know this why?

Gremlin

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2024 on: May 17, 2020, 10:36:03 PM »
I think life is getting back to normal here in Australia. Our daily state cases are around 10-15, of which about half are linked to two known clusters, and a quarter or so are from known quarantine zones (eg overseas travellers) and the rest are unknown. But with such a low number, I think it is definitely the right time to say without hesitation that we have beaten the virus.

i guess you'll be restricting flights in/out of the country for the next 2 years until (if) a vaccine is developed then. because if you're not, there is no beating the virus. i guess every person flying into you country will be self-quarantined for 14 days upon arrival. good luck with that policy for years.

Yep. Normal international travel will not resume here for a very long time.

Seems pretty hard to imagine that that level of shutdown could be sustainable. What if no reasonably effective and safe vaccine is ever discovered? Could you picture Australia quarantining itself forever? Apparently, international travelers spend ~US$50BB/year in Australia. Do you think Australia will just walk away from all that money? It's not just tourism, either. International business, in general, often requires business people to physically travel to Australia. If international business people who want to invest money in Australia have to quarantine for 14 days, every time, they're just not going to go to Australia.
To put in context, the Australian Government has just spent more in the past two months to put Australia in a position that every other country in the world wishes they were in, than international tourism has brought to Australia in the past ten years.  That buys a lot of time to work out the next steps forward.  That's time to work out options other nations don't have.

I, for one, don't believe that it means quarantining forever.  I expect there's a good chance a vaccine will be found.  If not, there's a very good chance that far more effective treatments will be developed over the coming months than what exist now which will make getting the virus a more palatable scenario than today.  But primarily, I believe that having a (close to) virus-free country will mean that normal* life will return much faster and the domestic economy will open up much faster in Australia than elsewhere, with far lower risk of a subsequent wave.  And that will be worth billions to the local economy. 

International trade is still happening.  Some of the "just in time" stuff needs to be rethought in the interim - fresh beef exports, for example, are not flying in the cargo holds to Asia at the moment for obvious reasons.  International students look like returning to Australian shores (with quarantine). Yes, tourism is going to take a hit.  But it's worth it.

* New normal

deborah

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2025 on: May 17, 2020, 10:45:38 PM »
+1

Further to what Gremlin said, Australian tourists spent $65bn overseas last year, so it's possible we won't be a net loser in tourism if we have closed borders. However, we are planning to have a transTasman tourist bubble - NZ, Aus and Pacific Islands that largely avoided Covid19 and can't afford to get it.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2026 on: May 17, 2020, 11:56:57 PM »
Quote
And you know this why?
Know what? That it'll mutate to a less lethal form? I don't. I said, EITHER it does so, OR we end up just accepting it as another way people die, like cancer and heart disease. Because we simply are not going to spend the next 100 years all standing on little yellow dots 1.5m apart at stores, and having no people move from one country to another, and having (as in Australia) over half the working population not working and subsisting on government support.

As I noted much earlier, because of our modern Western lifestyle, we have a certain number of people die each year. Our choice as a society to have cars means people die on the roads. Our choice as a society to have available couches and McDs means people die of cancer and heart disease. Our choice as a society to have firearms means people are shot by accident or on purpose. Our choice as a society to have alcohol available means people die of heart and liver disease, and there are sometimes public brawls and more often domestic violence. Our choice as a society to use lots of fossil fuels means people die from pollution and the climate changes. Our choice as a society to live with a lot of electronics means that children are enslaved in mines in the Congo, and some of them die in conflicts.

And so on and so forth. As a society, we have chosen a certain lifestyle, which means a certain number of people die preventable deaths and suffer needlessly. We haven't hugely changed our lifestyle for any of the other lethal dangers, and so I don't see why we will do so for covid-19. It may be that we should change things for one or more of those issues, but I do not think we will.

Temporarily, of course, is another thing. But long-term, we will change things to the very minimum extent we can - yes, even if it means people die of this virus.
« Last Edit: May 19, 2020, 07:16:21 PM by Kyle Schuant »

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2027 on: May 18, 2020, 12:43:46 AM »
And you know this why?
Know what? That it'll mutate to a less lethal form? I don't. I said, EITHER it does so, OR we end up just accepting it as another way people die, like cancer and heart disease. Because we simply are not going to spend the next 100 years all standing on little yellow dots 1.5m apart at stores, and having no people move from one country to another, and having (as in Australia) over half the working population not working and subsisting on government support.

As I noted much earlier, because of our modern Western lifestyle, we have a certain number of people die each year. Our choice as a society to have cars means people die on the roads. Our choice as a society to have available couches and McDs means people die of cancer and heart disease. Our choice as a society to have firearms means people are shot by accident or on purpose. Our choice as a society to have alcohol available means people die of heart and liver disease, and there are sometimes public brawls and more often domestic violence. Our choice as a society to use lots of fossil fuels means people die from pollution and the climate changes. Our choice as a society to live with a lot of electronics means that children are enslaved in mines in the Congo, and some of them die in conflicts.

And so on and so forth. As a society, we have chosen a certain lifestyle, which means a certain number of people die preventable deaths and suffer needlessly. We haven't hugely changed our lifestyle for any of the other lethal dangers, and so I don't see why we will do so for covid-19. It may be that we should change things for one or more of those issues, but I do not think we will.

Temporarily, of course, is another thing. But long-term, we will change things to the very minimum extent we can - yes, even if it means people die of this virus.
[/quote]









I don't think your point is entirely true. Think about the things that we've done in the past that was novel, simply in order to prevent disease. There was great resistance to medical professionals washing their hands and their tools. Now we expect it. We also expect clean water (cholera). We expect to have safe sex conversations with new partners (HIV). I don't think it's at all unrealistic to expect that behaviour will change permanently as a result of this as well. Obviously, like with the couch and McDonalds, not everyone will take up new behaviours, but the majority will.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2028 on: May 18, 2020, 01:05:28 AM »
If no vaccine is ever developed, then either the virus mutates to a less-lethal form or otherwise fizzles out to become a low-level localised danger like yellow fever or the like, or it becomes just another common, accepted and largely ignored cause of death like cancer or heart disease.

And you know this why?

Well there's no alternative. As with all problems, you either fix it or you adjust to it.

Paper Chaser

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2029 on: May 19, 2020, 05:15:39 AM »
It seems like there's been an interesting study done that has provided a more clear idea of the scope of infection, and for the first time that I've seen, gives a reasonable indication of the possible Infection Fatality Rate thanks to a truly random sample of appropriate size. I don't really watch/read the news, but it seems like it's gotten very little traction for what could be pretty useful data. (Keep in mind that it's US centric)

https://news.iu.edu/stories/2020/05/iupui/releases/13-preliminary-findings-impact-covid-19-indiana-coronavirus.html

So, under lockdown they saw around 3% of the total population show signs of infection. On May1, the final day of the study, the State of Indiana showed 1167 deaths and 19244 confirmed cases. That's a case fatality rate of 6%. But the study estimates that the actual number of those who had contracted the virus was not 19244, but over 186k. That would make the Infection Fatality Rate 0.6%

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2030 on: May 19, 2020, 06:21:49 AM »
Here's a good example of how the virus is like climate change, terrorism and so on: yes, they are all real problems, but it's quite possible for something to be a real problem and at the same time the government and others are abusing it for their own ends.

While the pandemic and lockdown distract people, our Minister for Home Affairs tries to slip in a bill which would allow oral warrants, and indefinite secret detention without charge, trial, or legal representation present.

https://www.eurekastreet.com.au/article/dutton-s-asio-bill-goes-kafkaesque#

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2031 on: May 19, 2020, 11:39:24 AM »
It seems like there's been an interesting study done that has provided a more clear idea of the scope of infection, and for the first time that I've seen, gives a reasonable indication of the possible Infection Fatality Rate thanks to a truly random sample of appropriate size. I don't really watch/read the news, but it seems like it's gotten very little traction for what could be pretty useful data. (Keep in mind that it's US centric)

https://news.iu.edu/stories/2020/05/iupui/releases/13-preliminary-findings-impact-covid-19-indiana-coronavirus.html

So, under lockdown they saw around 3% of the total population show signs of infection. On May1, the final day of the study, the State of Indiana showed 1167 deaths and 19244 confirmed cases. That's a case fatality rate of 6%. But the study estimates that the actual number of those who had contracted the virus was not 19244, but over 186k. That would make the Infection Fatality Rate 0.6%

this IFR estimate is comparable to numerous other serological studies that have been done around the world.  Estimates have ranged from ~0.2-0.9%.  Areas like NYC, Lombardy, and Spain, however, have experienced a higher IFR.  I'm sure the reasons for this will be studied for many years to come.

« Last Edit: May 19, 2020, 11:47:15 AM by HBFIRE »

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2032 on: May 19, 2020, 02:32:32 PM »
Here's a good example of how the virus is like climate change, terrorism and so on: yes, they are all real problems, but it's quite possible for something to be a real problem and at the same time the government and others are abusing it for their own ends.

While the pandemic and lockdown distract people, our Minister for Home Affairs tries to slip in a bill which would allow oral warrants, and indefinite secret detention without charge, trial, or legal representation present.

https://www.eurekastreet.com.au/article/dutton-s-asio-bill-goes-kafkaesque#

The difference between the powers Dutton wants and what the CCP does to control its country is becoming a very fine line indeed.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2033 on: May 19, 2020, 11:12:59 PM »
As reported in The Age today, in this genetic study of the virus in sufferers, they found in Victoria:

76 individuals created 737 of 903 cases.

Which is to say, 8% of people were responsible for 81% of cases.

Notably, the biggest cluster of 75 cases came from 1 hospitality worker who worked at 3 separate venues. It's not passing people in the street or a supermarket you need to worry about, it's spending a number of hours next to people, shouting, sharing food implements, that sort of thing. That's why it spreads rapidly at weddings, karaoke, in meatpacking plants and aged care homes and so on.

As this study shows, given that the pandemic started outside the country, two main measures which are effective are:

1. close borders, and quarantine new arrivals, and
2. shut down large events, from the footy down to weddings and the like

If you do that early on then that's 80+% of possible infections dealt with. The other stuff is minor by comparison. Assuming that your goal is to suppress the infections sufficiently to keep it within the healthcare system's capacity, in retrospect, we can see that many of the lockdown measures were unnecessary.


« Last Edit: May 19, 2020, 11:19:52 PM by Kyle Schuant »

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2034 on: May 19, 2020, 11:30:19 PM »
As reported in The Age today, in this genetic study of the virus in sufferers, they found in Victoria:

76 individuals created 737 of 903 cases.

Which is to say, 8% of people were responsible for 81% of cases.

Notably, the biggest cluster of 75 cases came from 1 hospitality worker who worked at 3 separate venues. It's not passing people in the street or a supermarket you need to worry about, it's spending a number of hours next to people, shouting, sharing food implements, that sort of thing. That's why it spreads rapidly at weddings, karaoke, in meatpacking plants and aged care homes and so on.

As this study shows, given that the pandemic started outside the country, two main measures which are effective are:

1. close borders, and quarantine new arrivals, and
2. shut down large events, from the footy down to weddings and the like

If you do that early on then that's 80+% of possible infections dealt with. The other stuff is minor by comparison. Assuming that your goal is to suppress the infections sufficiently to keep it within the healthcare system's capacity, in retrospect, we can see that many of the lockdown measures were unnecessary.



The information on how the virus is spread is useful, and would have helped a lot if it had been known 4 months ago.  But nobody did know, and some countries saved a lot of lives by shutting down early and hard. Others didn't.  I'd rather be living in one that shut down early and hard.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2035 on: May 19, 2020, 11:38:15 PM »
As reported in The Age today, in this genetic study of the virus in sufferers, they found in Victoria:

76 individuals created 737 of 903 cases.

Which is to say, 8% of people were responsible for 81% of cases.

Notably, the biggest cluster of 75 cases came from 1 hospitality worker who worked at 3 separate venues. It's not passing people in the street or a supermarket you need to worry about, it's spending a number of hours next to people, shouting, sharing food implements, that sort of thing. That's why it spreads rapidly at weddings, karaoke, in meatpacking plants and aged care homes and so on.

As this study shows, given that the pandemic started outside the country, two main measures which are effective are:

1. close borders, and quarantine new arrivals, and
2. shut down large events, from the footy down to weddings and the like

If you do that early on then that's 80+% of possible infections dealt with. The other stuff is minor by comparison. Assuming that your goal is to suppress the infections sufficiently to keep it within the healthcare system's capacity, in retrospect, we can see that many of the lockdown measures were unnecessary.




Interesting, just read this as well:

Why do some COVID-19 patients infect many others, whereas most donít spread the virus at all?

Without social distancing, this reproduction number (R) is about three. But in real life, some people infect many others and others donít spread the disease at all. In fact, the latter is the norm, Lloyd-Smith says: ďThe consistent pattern is that the most common number is zero. Most people do not transmit.Ē

deborah

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2036 on: May 20, 2020, 12:10:17 AM »
@Kyle Schuant thanks for that! Interesting reading. I couldnít see anything that said people had been hours in company with the Victorian super spreader. In fact, I got the impression that they were packed events, where everyone was mingling, and possibly needing to shout to one another.

When you read these reports together, it would seem that gyms would be dangerous environments (everyoneís breathing heavily) especially if they play loud music encouraging people to shout or stand closer to one another to be heard. Whereas libraries, where people may gather to do quiet activities (for example my local library has a knitting group meet) might be much less vulnerable.

Call centres, where everyone is on the phone a lot, and sometimes shouting at one another, would be much more vulnerable places than other open plan work places where people donít talk much and rarely raise their voices.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2037 on: May 20, 2020, 12:35:44 AM »

The information on how the virus is spread is useful, and would have helped a lot if it had been known 4 months ago.  But nobody did know, and some countries saved a lot of lives by shutting down early and hard. Others didn't.  I'd rather be living in one that shut down early and hard.
Sure. But it informs our path out. Some continued restrictions will help, some won't. For example, in my state from June 1st they're reopening restaurants to not more than 20 people seated, and with some restrictions - but playgrounds will remain closed. Looking at the evidence, restaurants should be opened later rather than sooner, and there was never any reason to close playgrounds.

As now, the restrictions we have imposed or removed in the future will not necessarily be informed by medical facts. Just as terrorism led to some increased security and a whole lot more security theatre, I expect this virus will lead to some increased security and a whole lot more security theatre. There was never any reason to prohibit solitary fishing or camping, for example, it was just for show, like the patdown people get at airports after already having gone through a body scanner. Theatre.

And there will of course be other considerations; playgrounds don't employ many people, restaurants do, so a government wanting to get the economy going again will open restaurants first - even though they're a demonstrated risk and playgrounds aren't.

I couldnít see anything that said people had been hours in company with the Victorian super spreader. In fact, I got the impression that they were packed events, where everyone was mingling, and possibly needing to shout to one another.
Yes, but the hospitality worker handled eating implements and food, and people shared those amongst themselves - all over several hours.

Quote
When you read these reports together, it would seem that gyms would be dangerous environments (everyoneís breathing heavily) especially if they play loud music encouraging people to shout or stand closer to one another to be heard. Whereas libraries, where people may gather to do quiet activities (for example my local library has a knitting group meet) might be much less vulnerable.
It'd depend on the kind of gym. Mine for example is just a barbell gym without loud music, however people share equipment. It's not going to survive very well on a barbell, but if someone else just snotted on it you'd be in trouble; to minimise risk I'd not let people share equipment, and clean it between sessions. But that's not going to be practical in circuit classes, or globogyms with machines - nobody's sanitising a machine between walking on it for 15 minutes, or doing a set or two of leg extensions. And climbing gyms - well, what are the staff going to do, climb up there and sterilise each handhold?

With gyms, any superspreader events have been as you described, with Zumba classes doing it but not Pilates. We don't know any spread just by sharing equipment. Which honestly has surprised me, I thought we'd be risky, which is why I told my vulnerable (older and/or with health issues) to stay away two weeks before the state closed us. But evidently people just aren't passing on enough viral load through that means for it to show up as a superspreader event. I guess this shouldn't have surprised me - several times over the years someone at my gym has had gastro which is notoriously contagious, and yet not once has it been passed on to any other member unless they lived with the person (we've had a number of couples come along).

We can't rule it out, since the countries with huge numbers of cases aren't able to do all the contact tracing to tell us - but if gyms are a risk, then evidently they're a smaller risk than large social gatherings, meat-packing plants, and other places where people live and work closely together. I'll be erring on the side of caution because I have many people in the vulnerable demographic. But still.

As for libraries, people are quiet - but people pick up and put down books, and of course there are children's storytime events, and many libraries have meeting places for community groups, and small kitchenettes for them. But like gyms, though we might expect them, we've not heard of any superspreader events coming from libraries.


And whatever the place, bear in mind that we can't always know for sure, because people gathering in a particular place often mix outside that place, too. If Anna and Bob share a barbell at my gym and afterwards go for a coffee and one passes the sugar to the other, was it the barbell or the sugar that transmitted the virus from one to the other? Unfortunately, there'll always be a degree of uncertainty about these things.

Quote
Call centres, where everyone is on the phone a lot, and sometimes shouting at one another, would be much more vulnerable places than other open plan work places where people donít talk much and rarely raise their voices.
Apparently there are a couple of clusters from call centres, yes. If long-term those places close down, it's not clear that it'll be a loss for humanity as a whole.

This article looks at some example events. Obviously it's not a scientific review, but it's illustrative.

https://quillette.com/2020/04/23/covid-19-superspreader-events-in-28-countries-critical-patterns-and-lessons/


Edit: this article links to some other studies like the Victorian one linked above - https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all#
« Last Edit: May 20, 2020, 02:32:01 AM by Kyle Schuant »

deborah

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2038 on: May 20, 2020, 12:57:36 AM »
The way I read the studies, people are catching it from one another rather than from touching things. I guess I'm taking this stance partly because of a couple of other articles that were distributed within MMM forum that showed spread in a call centre and that person to person is the biggest vector. That means it's less reasonable to worry about sanitising things, but indoor people contact - especially heavy breathing, is more of a worry.

It also means that the indoors contact needs to happen, but not for all that long. And that figures, as it explains the amount of transmission in nursing homes. When my parents were in respite care in a nursing home, the carers were very overworked, and spent very little time with each person, yet they would have been very close to them (showering them...). The recent Royal Commission also had many people saying that the carers are very overworked and have very little time for each patient.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2039 on: May 20, 2020, 02:40:36 AM »
The way I read the studies, people are catching it from one another rather than from touching things.
Bear in mind it's probably harder to trace things than people. I can tell you the last three people outside my family who I spoke to in person, it'd be trickier to tell you the last three things I touched. This article talks about a cluster in Germany started by sharing a salt shaker.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-germany-defences-i/pass-the-salt-the-minute-details-that-helped-germany-build-virus-defenses-idUSKCN21R1DB

Though of course the workers may have had other contact - for example sitting across from each-other at the table they shared the salt shaker. And there have been many clusters where people shared eating implements; it's intuitively obvious that if I am sick and put a spoon in my mouth, and then you eat from the same spoon, the chances are good I'll pass it to you. Something like a shared handrail would be less risk - simply because unless I actually collect a sneeze on that handrail, there'll be a smaller viral load.

In any case it does no harm to clean shared equipment a bit more, to take salt shakers and water jugs off restaurant tables, and so on. I do think we can keep this virus at levels far short of those which would overwhelm the healthcare system, while not doing anything hugely difficult or crashing the economy - except for the international tourism and airline parts of the economy, I think they're toast for a couple of years.

As I said, early on we didn't know facts yet, so we had to smash everything down. Now we have some facts, so we don't have to.



LWYRUP

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2042 on: May 20, 2020, 04:51:07 PM »
Good news.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/498732-two-new-studies-suggest-covid-19-antibodies-provide-immunity?amp

It's possible there's a short term effect that fades, so I think it's too soon to read too much into this.

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Laserjet3051

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2044 on: May 20, 2020, 07:17:29 PM »
Good news.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/498732-two-new-studies-suggest-covid-19-antibodies-provide-immunity?amp

It's possible there's a short term effect that fades, so I think it's too soon to read too much into this.

As someone who does exactly this type of testing on non human primates, I vehemently disagree with your pessimistic "I think it's too soon to read too much into this."

This is the THIRD independent study showing this effect. What may have been a fair thing for you to say is that efficacy in non human primates doesnt guarantee similar effect in human or that the effect may be short lived. While both of those are true claims, why throw water on really ENCOURAGING data? Claims of efficacy  in vitro, such as was made by Sorrento Pharmaceuticals late last week more rightly deserve cautious extrapolation as they were just cells in a dish. But the studies cited above were done in monkeys; next step, is human.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2045 on: May 20, 2020, 08:16:26 PM »
I'm tiring of people taking the worst case scenario and running with it. What's with the pessimism?

Remember those projections of "exponential growth", millions of deaths in the US alone, etc? Every country has managed to flatten the curve, with or without harsh lockdown measures.


LWYRUP

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2046 on: May 20, 2020, 08:52:43 PM »
Good news.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/498732-two-new-studies-suggest-covid-19-antibodies-provide-immunity?amp

It's possible there's a short term effect that fades, so I think it's too soon to read too much into this.

As someone who does exactly this type of testing on non human primates, I vehemently disagree with your pessimistic "I think it's too soon to read too much into this."

This is the THIRD independent study showing this effect. What may have been a fair thing for you to say is that efficacy in non human primates doesnt guarantee similar effect in human or that the effect may be short lived. While both of those are true claims, why throw water on really ENCOURAGING data? Claims of efficacy  in vitro, such as was made by Sorrento Pharmaceuticals late last week more rightly deserve cautious extrapolation as they were just cells in a dish. But the studies cited above were done in monkeys; next step, is human.

You said it would be fair for me to say the effect may be short-lived.

Now please reread my post.

That is literally the risk that I pointed out.

So it seems you find my comment fair, and you just vehemently disagree with whatever you misread it as saying?

Gremlin

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2047 on: May 21, 2020, 12:44:34 AM »
Every country has managed to flatten the curve, with or without harsh lockdown measures.

More new cases worldwide today than any other day so far.  Pretty sure that means that not every country has managed to flatten the curve...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/20/global-report-coronavirus-pandemic-not-over-warns-the-who

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2048 on: May 21, 2020, 02:26:36 AM »
Every country has managed to flatten the curve, with or without harsh lockdown measures.

More new cases worldwide today than any other day so far.  Pretty sure that means that not every country has managed to flatten the curve...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/20/global-report-coronavirus-pandemic-not-over-warns-the-who

that's because it keeps spreading to other countries. Have a look at the country specific charts - all but the ones that have only been recently affected have managed to flatten the curve.

Gremlin

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2049 on: May 21, 2020, 04:35:38 AM »
Every country has managed to flatten the curve, with or without harsh lockdown measures.

More new cases worldwide today than any other day so far.  Pretty sure that means that not every country has managed to flatten the curve...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/20/global-report-coronavirus-pandemic-not-over-warns-the-who

that's because it keeps spreading to other countries. Have a look at the country specific charts - all but the ones that have only been recently affected have managed to flatten the curve.

I call bullshit.  Populous countries like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Brazil, Mexico and Indonesia have all been reporting cases since the end of March/start of April.  None of them are even close to flattening their curves.  Plenty of mid-population nations in a similar boat.  As you suggest, have a look at the country specific charts.  Here's India, Brazil and Mexico for starters...