Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 253665 times)

Davnasty

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2700 on: June 28, 2020, 03:00:25 PM »
Exactly.  If you are personally at risk, wearing a mask is for yourself.  If you are not personally at risk, wearing a mask is essentially an altruistic act.  I am not personally worried about getting Covid-19, but I am very concerned for my elderly parents.  I wear a mask to help prevent spread to people like my parents who might be vulnerable and hope others will do the same.  IMHO, anybody who thinks wearing a mask in public is a great hardship has probably led a pretty sheltered life.

I would argue with the exact same reasoning, but to a completely different conclusion. Anyone who thinks even a million people dying across the 7.5b we have on earth is something that requires curtailing of personal freedoms along side economic collapse has lived pretty sheltered life. This is not a scary virus in the big scope of things.  Perhaps compared to what's come down the pipes in the last 50 years yes, but compared to Polio and Small Pox and the other scourges of yesteryear, absolutely not. Go talk to anyone not in the west, or those living on a dollar a day and ask where COVID ranks on their list of concerns. Wake me up when another AIDS or TB comes along.

Hey, I went and talked to some people "not in the west". They were all wearing masks :)

By the way, the person you were responding to was just suggesting that wearing a mask isn't that much of a hardship. I'm not sure what that has to do with "curtailing freedoms".

ROF Expat

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2701 on: June 28, 2020, 03:35:14 PM »
Exactly.  If you are personally at risk, wearing a mask is for yourself.  If you are not personally at risk, wearing a mask is essentially an altruistic act.  I am not personally worried about getting Covid-19, but I am very concerned for my elderly parents.  I wear a mask to help prevent spread to people like my parents who might be vulnerable and hope others will do the same.  IMHO, anybody who thinks wearing a mask in public is a great hardship has probably led a pretty sheltered life.

I would argue with the exact same reasoning, but to a completely different conclusion. Anyone who thinks even a million people dying across the 7.5b we have on earth is something that requires curtailing of personal freedoms along side economic collapse has lived pretty sheltered life. This is not a scary virus in the big scope of things.  Perhaps compared to what's come down the pipes in the last 50 years yes, but compared to Polio and Small Pox and the other scourges of yesteryear, absolutely not. Go talk to anyone not in the west, or those living on a dollar a day and ask where COVID ranks on their list of concerns. Wake me up when another AIDS or TB comes along.

I didn't say anything about "curtailing personal freedoms" beyond wearing a mask.  I said I think that wearing a mask is not an onerous thing to do to protect vulnerable people.  If you don't have elderly or otherwise vulnerable friends and family, or if you do and just don't care about them, that's your right. 

BTW, I currently live in a non-Western, low-income country.  People here are wearing masks.  Yes, people have plenty of other things to worry about, some of them much bigger than Covid, but they still seem to be willing to make that minor sacrifice (and some much more significant ones) to protect themselves and others. 

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2702 on: June 28, 2020, 04:13:46 PM »
A shutdown of everything other than essential services is a forced and rapid change toward Mustachianism.  I'm not sure why that's such a big problem on this forum.

The reason shutdown is hitting marginalised groups hardest is that they tend to be concentrated in  low-end industry (abattoirs, third world clothing manufacturers) and poorly paid personal and community services staff (cleaning, hairdressing, restaurant staff, carers, public transport staff, waste disposal staff).  That's why they  are the hardest hit groups.  It's a consequence of the poor government policies of the past that those now bleeding-hearts right-wingers didn't give a damn about in the past and still don't other than the consequences give them the opportunity to sound right-on while pushing their right-wing "mah freedom" agenda.

The solution isn't opening up services which spread disease before it's wise, it's making adequate (and well-managed) provision for workers and business owners while businesses are shut.  And providing decent education and training so that low-wage workers have options.

I didn't know that one of the tenets of Mustachianism was furloughing low-wage employees and using government debt to pay the majority of their wages for a long period of time thus pushing up inflation and tax, etc etc etc.

I think to call the developing situation Mustachian is a bit much.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2703 on: June 28, 2020, 04:51:27 PM »
A shutdown of everything other than essential services is a forced and rapid change toward Mustachianism.  I'm not sure why that's such a big problem on this forum.

The reason shutdown is hitting marginalised groups hardest is that they tend to be concentrated in  low-end industry (abattoirs, third world clothing manufacturers) and poorly paid personal and community services staff (cleaning, hairdressing, restaurant staff, carers, public transport staff, waste disposal staff).  That's why they  are the hardest hit groups.  It's a consequence of the poor government policies of the past that those now bleeding-hearts right-wingers didn't give a damn about in the past and still don't other than the consequences give them the opportunity to sound right-on while pushing their right-wing "mah freedom" agenda.

The solution isn't opening up services which spread disease before it's wise, it's making adequate (and well-managed) provision for workers and business owners while businesses are shut.  And providing decent education and training so that low-wage workers have options.

I didn't know that one of the tenets of Mustachianism was furloughing low-wage employees and using government debt to pay the majority of their wages for a long period of time thus pushing up inflation and tax, etc etc etc.

I think to call the developing situation Mustachian is a bit much.
Either I was unclear or you are (deliberately obtuse?)  Not spending money on useless shit and unnecessary luxuries is mustachian.  The consequences to low-wage employees need to be mitigated.  Inflation and tax increases are not a given.

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2704 on: June 28, 2020, 04:53:54 PM »
A shutdown of everything other than essential services is a forced and rapid change toward Mustachianism.  I'm not sure why that's such a big problem on this forum.

The reason shutdown is hitting marginalised groups hardest is that they tend to be concentrated in  low-end industry (abattoirs, third world clothing manufacturers) and poorly paid personal and community services staff (cleaning, hairdressing, restaurant staff, carers, public transport staff, waste disposal staff).  That's why they  are the hardest hit groups.  It's a consequence of the poor government policies of the past that those now bleeding-hearts right-wingers didn't give a damn about in the past and still don't other than the consequences give them the opportunity to sound right-on while pushing their right-wing "mah freedom" agenda.

The solution isn't opening up services which spread disease before it's wise, it's making adequate (and well-managed) provision for workers and business owners while businesses are shut.  And providing decent education and training so that low-wage workers have options.

I didn't know that one of the tenets of Mustachianism was furloughing low-wage employees and using government debt to pay the majority of their wages for a long period of time thus pushing up inflation and tax, etc etc etc.

I think to call the developing situation Mustachian is a bit much.
And what do you think would happen to workers and the economy if people stopped consuming at the levels they do now and all suddenly became MMM zealots living the lifestyle?

It would look very similar to the last few months but with travel and freedom to move about.

Many in the MMM tribe have been proponents of UBI so not sure where you are coming from. How is that different from taxing to pay a living wage or send out checks to people to pay their rent or food at this time.


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Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2705 on: June 28, 2020, 04:55:40 PM »
It's not for me to judge what is useless shit or an unnecessary luxury. Unlike many on these forums, I don't class eating out (for example) as being a sinful purchase.

"The consequences to low-wage employees need to be mitigated."

So you would rather people not patronise their employers, and then turn to the government to support their wages?

I'd rather let the free market do its thing, allow people to spend what they like so that people have a job, and if it goes pear shaped I'd want the mitigation to be as modest as possible without letting anyone go without food or shelter.

My point is that I don't think Mustachianism embraces a government-funded bail out of entire industries which is what your desired situation would entail.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2706 on: June 28, 2020, 04:56:54 PM »
A shutdown of everything other than essential services is a forced and rapid change toward Mustachianism.  I'm not sure why that's such a big problem on this forum.

The reason shutdown is hitting marginalised groups hardest is that they tend to be concentrated in  low-end industry (abattoirs, third world clothing manufacturers) and poorly paid personal and community services staff (cleaning, hairdressing, restaurant staff, carers, public transport staff, waste disposal staff).  That's why they  are the hardest hit groups.  It's a consequence of the poor government policies of the past that those now bleeding-hearts right-wingers didn't give a damn about in the past and still don't other than the consequences give them the opportunity to sound right-on while pushing their right-wing "mah freedom" agenda.

The solution isn't opening up services which spread disease before it's wise, it's making adequate (and well-managed) provision for workers and business owners while businesses are shut.  And providing decent education and training so that low-wage workers have options.

I didn't know that one of the tenets of Mustachianism was furloughing low-wage employees and using government debt to pay the majority of their wages for a long period of time thus pushing up inflation and tax, etc etc etc.

I think to call the developing situation Mustachian is a bit much.
And what do you think would happen to workers and the economy if people stopped consuming at the levels they do now and all suddenly became MMM zealots living the lifestyle?

It would look very similar to the last few months but with travel and freedom to move about.

Many in the MMM tribe have been proponents of UBI so not sure where you are coming from. How is that different from taxing to pay a living wage or send out checks to people to pay their rent or food at this time.


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Yeah it would look similar to the last few months with literally trillions spent on bail-outs. How long do you intend for that to go on?

Mr. Green

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2707 on: June 28, 2020, 05:26:58 PM »
Go talk to anyone not in the west, or those living on a dollar a day and ask where COVID ranks on their list of concerns. Wake me up when another AIDS or TB comes along.


Precisely.  And it's the these groups being devastated the most economically.  Shelter in place is fine for the wealthy and privileged, not so much for the marginalized and poor.
Statements like these make some pretty terrible assumptions. This virus could end up being really bad for a great many folks. We simply don't know because it is a new, never seen before virus. There are increasing indicators that COVID is giving people neurological problems, and enough people have lingering symptoms months after contracting it that doctors are beginning to question whether some folks may never fully recover. There's also no evidence that getting it bestows much immunity, and we still don't know if people can actually get it again.

The point is, there's too much we don't know to just assume it won't be that bad. A year or two from now we could know that some folks will never recover, that you can get it over and over like the flu, and getting it only gives you a few months worth of antibodies. That would be a very bleak reality. And what if we don't find an effective vaccine?

We're choosing to let a new species of animal out of the cage because it looks pretty harmless when we know almost nothing about it. The sad fact is that this animal could end up being so bad that it literally changes life as we know it. That isn't hype or fear mongering or anything involving emotions. That's just the cold, hard facts. I hope that animal is docile, but we're sure taking a big gamble with the assumption.

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2708 on: June 28, 2020, 05:27:54 PM »
A shutdown of everything other than essential services is a forced and rapid change toward Mustachianism.  I'm not sure why that's such a big problem on this forum.

The reason shutdown is hitting marginalised groups hardest is that they tend to be concentrated in  low-end industry (abattoirs, third world clothing manufacturers) and poorly paid personal and community services staff (cleaning, hairdressing, restaurant staff, carers, public transport staff, waste disposal staff).  That's why they  are the hardest hit groups.  It's a consequence of the poor government policies of the past that those now bleeding-hearts right-wingers didn't give a damn about in the past and still don't other than the consequences give them the opportunity to sound right-on while pushing their right-wing "mah freedom" agenda.

The solution isn't opening up services which spread disease before it's wise, it's making adequate (and well-managed) provision for workers and business owners while businesses are shut.  And providing decent education and training so that low-wage workers have options.

I didn't know that one of the tenets of Mustachianism was furloughing low-wage employees and using government debt to pay the majority of their wages for a long period of time thus pushing up inflation and tax, etc etc etc.

I think to call the developing situation Mustachian is a bit much.
And what do you think would happen to workers and the economy if people stopped consuming at the levels they do now and all suddenly became MMM zealots living the lifestyle?

It would look very similar to the last few months but with travel and freedom to move about.

Many in the MMM tribe have been proponents of UBI so not sure where you are coming from. How is that different from taxing to pay a living wage or send out checks to people to pay their rent or food at this time.


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Yeah it would look similar to the last few months with literally trillions spent on bail-outs. How long do you intend for that to go on?

I was just replying to you saying

ďI think to call the developing situation Mustachian is a bit much.Ē

I was simply pointing out that the last few months have been a shift towards MMM ideals in many ways.

Even in my own neighborhood people have shifted to growing food instead of planting flowers, bartering with each other, getting outdoors more / exercising, meeting neighbors, cooking at home and not commuting as much.

I know you live to argue and be contrary but that is my opinion and I am sticking to it.


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v8rx7guy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2709 on: June 28, 2020, 06:12:45 PM »
Deaths per day continues to drop.

Kris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2710 on: June 28, 2020, 06:20:49 PM »
Deaths per day continues to drop.

I mean... I think ďcontinues toĒ is an odd phrasing, given that we are now seeing a spike in new cases in the US.

Maybe letís revisit your comment in 3 weeks or so.

Gremlin

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2711 on: June 28, 2020, 06:33:54 PM »
Deaths per day continues to drop.

Ummm.  No.

Worldwide daily deaths per day (on a rolling seven day basis to avoid reporting anomalies over the weekend periods) troughed on the 26th of May.  Since then they have steadily increased.  Currently running at ~12.5% higher than a month ago.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/

v8rx7guy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2712 on: June 28, 2020, 06:47:56 PM »
Deaths per day continues to drop.

Ummm.  No.

Worldwide daily deaths per day (on a rolling seven day basis to avoid reporting anomalies over the weekend periods) troughed on the 26th of May.  Since then they have steadily increased.  Currently running at ~12.5% higher than a month ago.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/

The subject of this thread is the US, stating that the US deaths per day continues to drop even though cases have been mostly flat for months and now have been rising for a couple of weeks.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2713 on: June 28, 2020, 06:52:20 PM »
Deaths per day continues to drop.

Ummm.  No.

Worldwide daily deaths per day (on a rolling seven day basis to avoid reporting anomalies over the weekend periods) troughed on the 26th of May.  Since then they have steadily increased.  Currently running at ~12.5% higher than a month ago.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/
Probably referring to US deaths, which is still down on the 7 day average.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2714 on: June 28, 2020, 07:19:38 PM »

Probably referring to US deaths, which is still down on the 7 day average.

Right.  Case fatality rate is also dropping quickly, likely due to a couple reasons: 1) higher volume testing catching more infections, and 2) higher rate of case identifications in younger demographic.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2715 on: June 28, 2020, 07:54:20 PM »

Probably referring to US deaths, which is still down on the 7 day average.

Right.  Case fatality rate is also dropping quickly, likely due to a couple reasons: 1) higher volume testing catching more infections, and 2) higher rate of case identifications in younger demographic.

Our state is having a second wave of cases. The local news is reporting a lot of them are due to young people/young family members (including children) getting infected and having mild or no symptoms and passing it on. One family outbreak alone was responsible for over 20 cases! This is why you shouldn't have big indoor get-togethers and dinners.

Strangely the cases are mostly concentrated in a few lower socio-economic suburbs and I'm not sure what, if anything, to make of that.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2716 on: June 28, 2020, 09:24:58 PM »
Strangely the cases are mostly concentrated in a few lower socio-economic suburbs and I'm not sure what, if anything, to make of that.
1. that's where hotel quarantine security guards live, and
2. lower socio-economic areas have bigger families; if you are not well-off, you need a lot of people around you to support and help you, if you're rich you just spend money for it.

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2717 on: June 29, 2020, 02:46:00 AM »
ehhhh....

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2718 on: June 29, 2020, 03:07:37 AM »
As far as the other things you mentioned goes, I agree that our society is now choosing to make huge changes on a macro level, like shutting down all schools and universities, closing places of worship, etc., for which, IMHO, we haven't really done a comprehensive cost benefit analysis. The actual societal costs of our governments' haphazard responses to covid aren't fully known yet, and the benefits are pretty sketchy, as well.

We have done a pretty comprehensive analysis of it. While very far from an exact science and loads of assumptions and uncertainties in there the conclusion was that it is, in the medium and long run, cheaper in economic terms and much better in terms of health effects / lives saved to shut down until infection rate is very, very low - then keep it low with a low level of restrictions. This has - so far - proven to be correct, but time will tell if it ends up this way. One crucial aspect of this, which is also starting to be seen in the US, that if you have low restrictions and high infection risk people tend to a large extent to self-regulate. That means going out less, consuming less, spending less money. Younameit.

After a massive drop during the early phases of shutdown indicators like credit card usage etc are back to normal levels here. There has been some shifts in consumption patterns (less on travel, more on home improvement and so on) but the overall picture is that the economy is recovering pretty  fast.

This is still early stages of a pandemic that might last for a very long time, but so far so good at least.

Norway is in a pretty enviable position right now. If the US had mounted a unified response, in the beginning, like Norway did, our situation might be completely different. Given the upcoming election, pretty sure Americans aren't going to come together to fight this virus like Norwegians did anytime soon. We'll have to wait and see what happens longer term.

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2719 on: June 29, 2020, 03:30:59 AM »
It has been at least somewhat controversial here as well, but the public opinion has been overwhelmingly in favor of the chosen approach. But part of that story is also that a large proportion of the workforce is in the public sector with no risk of layoffs or pay cuts and a large part of the private sector is able to telecommute as well, plus the social welfare system is rather generous (albeit they are struggling big-time with making payouts due to the massive caseload and a few other factors). As in other places the economic pain is very concentrated in a few lines of business, and these are also jobs that tend to be in the lower end of the income spectrum. There are also other factors such as low population density (largest city pop 700.000, 2nd largest 250.000), not very much international tourism going on in the winter months and no commercial or travel hub.

As I mentioned earlier I think it's a big difference in countries where people in general has a high level of confidence in the government and where you don't have someone completely delusional at the very top is also a plus. I wonder what the epidemiologists in the US thought when the Donald said it will soon be down to zero when you had 15 confirmed cases in the US.

I, for one, think the authorities overreacted here, but on the flip side it's easier to err on the side of caution and then adjust back than the other way around. It has proven very hard to get the toothpaste back in the tube once the pandemic really gets going and many European countries that shut down a lot more aggressively has seen a pretty fat tail in infections. So this is likely to take a very long time in the US even if the whole country collectively changes course at some point.

LWYRUP

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2720 on: June 29, 2020, 06:12:25 AM »

Probably referring to US deaths, which is still down on the 7 day average.

Right.  Case fatality rate is also dropping quickly, likely due to a couple reasons: 1) higher volume testing catching more infections, and 2) higher rate of case identifications in younger demographic.

The disease takes several weeks to progress and also usually spreads a few days after the most recent transmission, so given the recent spike, wait about a months and deaths should spike as well. 

You cannot set public policy based on current death numbers.  It needs to be forward looking, using the best available information. 

ReadySetMillionaire

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2721 on: June 29, 2020, 06:25:13 AM »
I worry you all are setting up a false dichotomy. 

If the coronavirus continues to be a slow burn for several years, it is not clear that this will be any better for the economy or those without many resources than if we work hard to fight it now.  We are still very far from herd immunity, and in fact we don't fully understand whether we can obtain natural herd immunity or to what extent there can be reinfection (esp. after a certain period of time). 

The better we do at reducing spread, the more safe we will be and the easier it will be to manage the economy.  We also know right now what activities are most likely to spread the virus and what activities are least likely, so we can work to adapt by stopping the activities most likely to cause spread while encouraging people to continue activities least likely to cause spread. 

I agree that it is not feasible for everyone to just shelter in place for years at a time.  But it also seems like certain areas (e.g., Florida) have really barely put forth any effort, and that it going to make things difficult for them and for the parts of the country where we have put in the work.

The economic concerns would be completely mitigated if the media were honest and transparent about what is actually happening (low case fatality rate, extremely low CFR for people under 50, 43% of deaths come from nursing homes, pediatrics want schools open, etc.).

If there ever was a study on how destructive the media can be, this is the all-timer.

LWYRUP

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2722 on: June 29, 2020, 06:58:06 AM »
@ReadySetMillionaire, I am actually in mostly complete agreement about the media.  Our country is polarized, and almost all media outlets run stories through very obvious ideological filters (so each outlet just preaches to its choir).  In addition, most media sources purposefully overhype all sorts of issues because it generates clicks and eyeballs and thus money.  Collectively, it's quite destructive.  It's also ultimately our fault -- the citizens get the media they watch and pay for. 

Can you please explain, though, how we can completely mitigate economic concerns?  Is your position basically that everyone should just go about life like normal and it's survival of the fittest with respect to the virus?  I think that's reckless.  As prior posters have noted, young people who catch the disease often suffer serious long term symptoms, we don't know yet whether herd immunity is possible and part of the reason the death rate has declined has been that (i) we flattened the curve so hospitals have not been overwhelmed and (ii) that gave us time to learn how to treat the disease better.  In my opinion, continued social isolation measures will only help in this regard.  I am not adverse to balancing risks here.  I do think schools should open in the fall.

I'm willing to listen to understand your point of view if you can share some sources or context for how we can solve the economic issues while staying safe. 

In addition to just being a concerned citizen, I have three young bouncy kids and I want them to enjoy life (we've been isolating for months), but I also have a mom in her late 60s with a lung condition and so I worry when we reopen we're just going to have to stop seeing my parents entirely.  (Right now we visit them because we are isolating from everyone else anyways.)  I'm not going to put my mom's life at risk, even if it's "mostly old people" and all. 

« Last Edit: June 29, 2020, 07:00:27 AM by LWYRUP »

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2723 on: June 29, 2020, 07:02:29 AM »
Fucking media out there killing over half a million people worldwide, and 128k+ in the usa, and it's not done yet.  Oh wait that's coronavirus. 

mm1970

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2724 on: June 29, 2020, 10:41:59 AM »
Fucking media out there killing over half a million people worldwide, and 128k+ in the usa, and it's not done yet.  Oh wait that's coronavirus.

Yup.  The one uniting factor in "MUH FREEDOM" friends locally and on facebook is "you are letting the media control you and make you fear!"

Um.  No.

Actually, I don't read MUCH media at all.  I read some.  I'm an engineer.  I like data.  So, I have a spreadsheet, and I am personally tracking COVID cases and deaths and total results for
- Los Angeles
- My county
- My city/locale within my county.

I also read articles on occasion about spikes (from family parties, etc.), reinfections, asymptomatic carriers, other countries results, etc.

I also happen to know of 4 people who died, aged 40-something to 90-something.  That 40-something woman was healthy and um, younger than me.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2725 on: June 29, 2020, 10:55:42 AM »
Fucking media out there killing over half a million people worldwide, and 128k+ in the usa, and it's not done yet.  Oh wait that's coronavirus.

Yup.  The one uniting factor in "MUH FREEDOM" friends locally and on facebook is "you are letting the media control you and make you fear!"

Um.  No.

Actually, I don't read MUCH media at all.  I read some.  I'm an engineer.  I like data.  So, I have a spreadsheet, and I am personally tracking COVID cases and deaths and total results for
- Los Angeles
- My county
- My city/locale within my county.

I also read articles on occasion about spikes (from family parties, etc.), reinfections, asymptomatic carriers, other countries results, etc.

I also happen to know of 4 people who died, aged 40-something to 90-something.  That 40-something woman was healthy and um, younger than me.

I can't figure out why rational fear is supposed to be such a bad thing.

If I listen to the right-wing propaganda, I'm supposed to be afraid of eternal damnation from capricious mythical gods, higher education, and red holiday cups from Starbucks. I'm not supposed to be afraid at all of a new virus for which there is no vaccine and only moderately effective treatments, and which probably won't kill me but has a good chance of causing serious long-term adverse effects? And I could transmit it to my elderly relatives and friends, who may not be so lucky, without even knowing it?

I don't get why I'm not supposed to have a rational fear and act accordingly (mask wearing, good hygiene, physical distancing).

Paper Chaser

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2726 on: June 29, 2020, 10:58:13 AM »
Fucking media out there killing over half a million people worldwide, and 128k+ in the usa, and it's not done yet.  Oh wait that's coronavirus.

According to the CDC, Pneumonia kills about 50k Americans every year (15 per 100k citizens, or half of COVID), and that's with more than 2/3rds of those 65+ having been vaccinated, and tons of experience treating it within the medical community:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/pneumonia.htm

Rarely is there more than a peep from the general media, and everybody just goes about their business.

I don't think there's any question that the media has been reporting primarily "cases" which most here recognize as a poor metric to use, and often it's presented without any context RE testing, etc. This is done because it's the biggest number and the one that requires the least amount of context or specialized knowledge.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2727 on: June 29, 2020, 11:02:34 AM »
We can take precautions against more than one thing! I can choose not to smoke and also wear sunscreen. I donít have to pick one or the other.


One thing that makes pneumonia a bad example against COVID is that while we do have a few pneumonia vaccine options, pneumonia can be caused by many various germies, not just the germies covered in the different vaccines.


Rosy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2728 on: June 29, 2020, 11:06:39 AM »
Deaths per day continues to drop.

Not where I live. Here in Florida, everything is ticking up and no, the new cases are absolutely not due to increased testing.

Fact is: Since June 1 - testing has increased by less than 25%.
Fact is: Since June 1 - the avg number of cases has quadrupled - as of this morning the cases outstrip testing by five times.

Roughly two weeks ago I watched our governor, Ron DeSantis say this on national TV:
"Spike? what spike - we are not NY". (paraphrased to the best of my recollection:)

We may well hit over 10,000 cases in one day today - we've seen 8500 and 9500 cases in one day for several days now.

Hospitalizations are not peaking yet since it is the younger crowd who is becoming infected.
Many of the young would rather catch it and get it over with. I can understand that nevertheless, it is foolish.
It is unfortunate that this virus has been portrayed to be dangerous only to the old, it gives a false sense of security and immunity.
We should have communicated a hell of a lot better on social platforms that there is still a risk of damaging your health for life.
Point to the two 17-year-olds that just died right here in Florida.

The current cases - the average age in Florida is 37 and continues to drop.

My particular county:
has around a 10% death rate due to the high number of nursing home deaths and that is not slowing down either.
has made wearing masks mandatory as of last week.

Sure, I'm happy about mandatory masks since I am in a high-risk group and staying home - I've only ventured out three times in over two and a half months.
Yet, Mr. R. is an essential worker ... we just do what we can to minimize our risk of exposure - disinfect - wear masks - keep our distance and try not to be anywhere more than 30 minutes indoors.

Masks have proven to be effective so WTH would you not wear one in the absence of any effective medications or immunization?
Everyone we know is taking this virus deadly seriously.
Still, it is only a matter of time until we get it. My hopes of avoiding infection until we have effective meds are dwindling. 

There is a pub in Tampa that has been open on the sly for the entire time - the regulars just come in through the back door.
It is no different from the fools who refuse to wear a mask or pull it down to their chin or people who are convinced that God will spare them during Sunday service because they are so special and virtuous.
That is nothing but a reflection of how the White House has been addressing this virus. Denial is not an effective weapon in the face of a rampaging virus.

July 4th weekend is coming up and I'm wondering how many more cases that will bring within another two weeks.
It has been our local government - the mayors of St. Petersburg and Tampa who mandated mask-wearing and who are shutting down beaches.
The state opened bars and restaurants but many of the local restaurants and bars shut right back down voluntarily within a few days - too many employees who tested positive for the virus.

We all understand the economic devastation of a lockdown, but having a governor who simply wants to march forward regardless, dismissing the spike in cases is infuriating. The NY Yankees are leaving their Florida spring training to go back to NY where it is safer:).
Our hospital beds are slowly filling...
For this moment in time, the hospitalizations do not look bad but it stands to reason that as the young are infected and move freely about the rate of infections spreading to the over 60 crowds will increase.
Therefore in a few weeks' time, perhaps a month, we will see increased deaths as the hospitalized older population slowly passes away.
That is just common sense.
 
I get that the old people don't really seem to count in this big picture whether or not it is openly acknowledged.
Showing compassion is easy - wear the damn mask! Hell, I'll be happy to buy you one!
I was shocked to read that Florida is planning on opening up and allowing visitation in long term care facilities - now? for crying out loud.

All I'm hoping for is that we don't end up like NY because we sure as hell don't have a governor of the same caliber as Cuomo in NY. 

Angela Merkel, the Chancellor of Germany said back in January that she anticipates 60-70% of the population to come down with the virus by the end of the year based on the information and scientific projections she had at the time.....

Flattening the curve?
America's handling of this pandemic will go down in history as an epic failure.
Yet, I have been encouraged by several of the state and local government's handling of the virus.

How long can we wait? Oh, it will go up and down and spread and come back again and test everyone's mettle for all of 2020 and beyond.
It is likely there will only be survival of the fittest both from a health standpoint and from an economic viewpoint.
Imagining all of the consequences of this pandemic makes my head spin - interesting times we live in.

We may be ready to move on and be done with this virus - but the virus is not done with us yet.
Looks like Florida may be stuck with the worst-case scenario. Lockdown? I doubt it.
« Last Edit: June 29, 2020, 11:14:52 AM by Rosy »

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2729 on: June 29, 2020, 11:08:05 AM »
We can take precautions against more than one thing! I can choose not to smoke and also wear sunscreen. I donít have to pick one or the other.


One thing that makes pneumonia a bad example against COVID is that while we do have a few pneumonia vaccine options, pneumonia can be caused by many various germies, not just the germies covered in the different vaccines.

This. Pneumonia refers to a lung disorder caused by an infection/inflammation, not the primary disorder. It can be caused by many inhaled viral/bacterial/fungal pathogens, including SARS-CoV-2.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2730 on: June 29, 2020, 11:09:31 AM »
Deaths per day continues to drop.

Not where I live. Here in Florida, everything is ticking up



Is it?  Hard to tell just yet. 

former player

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2731 on: June 29, 2020, 11:13:10 AM »
Fucking media out there killing over half a million people worldwide, and 128k+ in the usa, and it's not done yet.  Oh wait that's coronavirus.

According to the CDC, Pneumonia kills about 50k Americans every year (15 per 100k citizens, or half of COVID), and that's with more than 2/3rds of those 65+ having been vaccinated, and tons of experience treating it within the medical community:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/pneumonia.htm

Rarely is there more than a peep from the general media, and everybody just goes about their business.

I don't think there's any question that the media has been reporting primarily "cases" which most here recognize as a poor metric to use, and often it's presented without any context RE testing, etc. This is done because it's the biggest number and the one that requires the least amount of context or specialized knowledge.
Pneumonia is a bad compator because it tends not to find, or kill, people otherwise in reasonable health.  It used to be called "the old man's friend" because it was a relatively painless way for old people with worse illnesses to die.  If pneumonia could take you before cancer or motor neurone disease did its worst you and your relatives were probably quietly grateful.

Paper Chaser

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2732 on: June 29, 2020, 11:14:29 AM »
We can take precautions against more than one thing! I can choose not to smoke and also wear sunscreen. I donít have to pick one or the other.


One thing that makes pneumonia a bad example against COVID is that while we do have a few pneumonia vaccine options, pneumonia can be caused by many various germies, not just the germies covered in the different vaccines.

Yes. Even still, a viable vaccine against a few of the causes of pneumonia is more than we currently have for COVID. And hundreds of years of treating Pneumonia has provided tons of examples and knowledge for treatment. And even with those advantages on our side, pneumonia still kills 50k Americans per year with little media coverage. If the media reported daily pneumonia cases the same way they report COVID, there would be a lot more discussion about preventing the spread, changing policy, etc.
We've grown desensitized to Pneumonia because it's been around our entire lives, so the media doesn't bother bringing it up. I'm not really trying to say that COVID isn't serious, or that it's just like some other potentially lethal illness. I'm just saying that the point by a previous poster about media coverage is valid in my opinion. There's coverage of this illness because we haven't become completely desensitized to it (although I'd argue that's happening now too).

Paper Chaser

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2733 on: June 29, 2020, 11:18:51 AM »
Fucking media out there killing over half a million people worldwide, and 128k+ in the usa, and it's not done yet.  Oh wait that's coronavirus.

According to the CDC, Pneumonia kills about 50k Americans every year (15 per 100k citizens, or half of COVID), and that's with more than 2/3rds of those 65+ having been vaccinated, and tons of experience treating it within the medical community:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/pneumonia.htm

Rarely is there more than a peep from the general media, and everybody just goes about their business.

I don't think there's any question that the media has been reporting primarily "cases" which most here recognize as a poor metric to use, and often it's presented without any context RE testing, etc. This is done because it's the biggest number and the one that requires the least amount of context or specialized knowledge.
Pneumonia is a bad compator because it tends not to find, or kill, people otherwise in reasonable health.  It used to be called "the old man's friend" because it was a relatively painless way for old people with worse illnesses to die.  If pneumonia could take you before cancer or motor neurone disease did its worst you and your relatives were probably quietly grateful.

Again, not meant to be a direct comparison, I just wanted to show that there are other examples where the media pretty much ignores other illnesses that kill tons of Americans every year even with vaccines and decades of successful treatment of those illnesses on our side. The media has reported about COVID differently than other potentially deadly illnesses, and done so often highlighting the least valuable metric simply because it's the biggest, simplest number.

v8rx7guy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2734 on: June 29, 2020, 11:22:15 AM »
Deaths per day continues to drop.

Not where I live. Here in Florida, everything is ticking up and no, the new cases are absolutely not due to increased testing.

Fact is: Since June 1 - testing has increased by less than 25%.
Fact is: Since June 1 - the avg number of cases has quadrupled - as of this morning the cases outstrip testing by five times.

Roughly two weeks ago I watched our governor, Ron DeSantis say this on national TV:
"Spike? what spike - we are not NY". (paraphrased to the best of my recollection:)

We may well hit over 10,000 cases in one day today - we've seen 8500 and 9500 cases in one day for several days now.

Hospitalizations are not peaking yet since it is the younger crowd who is becoming infected.
Many of the young would rather catch it and get it over with. I can understand that nevertheless, it is foolish.
It is unfortunate that this virus has been portrayed to be dangerous only to the old, it gives a false sense of security and immunity.
We should have communicated a hell of a lot better on social platforms that there is still a risk of damaging your health for life.
Point to the two 17-year-olds that just died right here in Florida.

The current cases - the average age in Florida is 37 and continues to drop.

My particular county:
has around a 10% death rate due to the high number of nursing home deaths and that is not slowing down either.
has made wearing masks mandatory as of last week.

Sure, I'm happy about mandatory masks since I am in a high-risk group and staying home - I've only ventured out three times in over two and a half months.
Yet, Mr. R. is an essential worker ... we just do what we can to minimize our risk of exposure - disinfect - wear masks - keep our distance and try not to be anywhere more than 30 minutes indoors.

Masks have proven to be effective so WTH would you not wear one in the absence of any effective medications or immunization?
Everyone we know is taking this virus deadly seriously.
Still, it is only a matter of time until we get it. My hopes of avoiding infection until we have effective meds are dwindling. 

There is a pub in Tampa that has been open on the sly for the entire time - the regulars just come in through the back door.
It is no different from the fools who refuse to wear a mask or pull it down to their chin or people who are convinced that God will spare them during Sunday service because they are so special and virtuous.
That is nothing but a reflection of how the White House has been addressing this virus. Denial is not an effective weapon in the face of a rampaging virus.

July 4th weekend is coming up and I'm wondering how many more cases that will bring within another two weeks.
It has been our local government - the mayors of St. Petersburg and Tampa who mandated mask-wearing and who are shutting down beaches.
The state opened bars and restaurants but many of the local restaurants and bars shut right back down voluntarily within a few days - too many employees who tested positive for the virus.

We all understand the economic devastation of a lockdown, but having a governor who simply wants to march forward regardless, dismissing the spike in cases is infuriating. The NY Yankees are leaving their Florida spring training to go back to NY where it is safer:).
Our hospital beds are slowly filling...
For this moment in time, the hospitalizations do not look bad but it stands to reason that as the young are infected and move freely about the rate of infections spreading to the over 60 crowds will increase.
Therefore in a few weeks' time, perhaps a month, we will see increased deaths as the hospitalized older population slowly passes away.
That is just common sense.
 
I get that the old people don't really seem to count in this big picture whether or not it is openly acknowledged.
Showing compassion is easy - wear the damn mask! Hell, I'll be happy to buy you one!
I was shocked to read that Florida is planning on opening up and allowing visitation in long term care facilities - now? for crying out loud.

All I'm hoping for is that we don't end up like NY because we sure as hell don't have a governor of the same caliber as Cuomo in NY. 

Angela Merkel, the Chancellor of Germany said back in January that she anticipates 60-70% of the population to come down with the virus by the end of the year based on the information and scientific projections she had at the time.....

Flattening the curve?
America's handling of this pandemic will go down in history as an epic failure.
Yet, I have been encouraged by several of the state and local government's handling of the virus.

How long can we wait? Oh, it will go up and down and spread and come back again and test everyone's mettle for all of 2020 and beyond.
It is likely there will only be survival of the fittest both from a health standpoint and from an economic viewpoint.
Imagining all of the consequences of this pandemic makes my head spin - interesting times we live in.

We may be ready to move on and be done with this virus - but the virus is not done with us yet.
Looks like Florida may be stuck with the worst-case scenario. Lockdown? I doubt it.

I specifically said deaths, and you correct me with case/infection data?  I'll agree that there may be a spike of deaths in Florida soon, too early to say, but it cases HAVE been increasing in Florida for about a month now (7-Day moving average low point 726 on 6/1), so... where's the increase in deaths?  Looks pretty flat to me as pictured above.  Time will tell.  But if you look back about a month that's what people said about Georgia to.  Why did we stop talking about that state?  Georgia was going to be the prime narrative about why states should not be opening early.
« Last Edit: June 29, 2020, 11:26:26 AM by v8rx7guy »

Cassie

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2735 on: June 29, 2020, 11:27:02 AM »
Former player, obviously you have never had pneumonia. I got it at 44 when I was in excellent shape. Spent 2 weeks in bd, up all night coughing, struggling to breathe, pulled my ribs out of place from coughing. When I went back to a office job I could only work 3 hours. Took a month to work up to 8 a day. Itís the sickest Iíve ever been.
 

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2736 on: June 29, 2020, 11:28:07 AM »
We can take precautions against more than one thing! I can choose not to smoke and also wear sunscreen. I donít have to pick one or the other.


One thing that makes pneumonia a bad example against COVID is that while we do have a few pneumonia vaccine options, pneumonia can be caused by many various germies, not just the germies covered in the different vaccines.

Yes. Even still, a viable vaccine against a few of the causes of pneumonia is more than we currently have for COVID. And hundreds of years of treating Pneumonia has provided tons of examples and knowledge for treatment. And even with those advantages on our side, pneumonia still kills 50k Americans per year with little media coverage. If the media reported daily pneumonia cases the same way they report COVID, there would be a lot more discussion about preventing the spread, changing policy, etc.
We've grown desensitized to Pneumonia because it's been around our entire lives, so the media doesn't bother bringing it up. I'm not really trying to say that COVID isn't serious, or that it's just like some other potentially lethal illness. I'm just saying that the point by a previous poster about media coverage is valid in my opinion. There's coverage of this illness because we haven't become completely desensitized to it (although I'd argue that's happening now too).


I think the fact the COVID is brand new and quite infectious is newsworthy, but I guess thatís just me. Many causes of pneumonia arenít particularly contagious on a person to person level.

Davnasty

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2737 on: June 29, 2020, 11:32:39 AM »
We can take precautions against more than one thing! I can choose not to smoke and also wear sunscreen. I donít have to pick one or the other.


One thing that makes pneumonia a bad example against COVID is that while we do have a few pneumonia vaccine options, pneumonia can be caused by many various germies, not just the germies covered in the different vaccines.

Yes. Even still, a viable vaccine against a few of the causes of pneumonia is more than we currently have for COVID. And hundreds of years of treating Pneumonia has provided tons of examples and knowledge for treatment. And even with those advantages on our side, pneumonia still kills 50k Americans per year with little media coverage. If the media reported daily pneumonia cases the same way they report COVID, there would be a lot more discussion about preventing the spread, changing policy, etc.
We've grown desensitized to Pneumonia because it's been around our entire lives, so the media doesn't bother bringing it up. I'm not really trying to say that COVID isn't serious, or that it's just like some other potentially lethal illness. I'm just saying that the point by a previous poster about media coverage is valid in my opinion. There's coverage of this illness because we haven't become completely desensitized to it (although I'd argue that's happening now too).

What exactly is there for the media to discuss with regard to pneumonia?

Most of your points are good arguments for why the media doesn't talk about it much. It's been around a long time. We have treatments. We have vaccines.

Also, I still get the feeling you don't understand what pneumonia is. It's when one's lungs become inflamed due to infection and it can be caused by lots of different bacteria and viruses, including corona viruses. Comparing deaths from a condition like pneumonia to deaths caused by a single novel virus makes no sense.

Paper Chaser

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2738 on: June 29, 2020, 11:42:17 AM »
We can take precautions against more than one thing! I can choose not to smoke and also wear sunscreen. I donít have to pick one or the other.


One thing that makes pneumonia a bad example against COVID is that while we do have a few pneumonia vaccine options, pneumonia can be caused by many various germies, not just the germies covered in the different vaccines.

Yes. Even still, a viable vaccine against a few of the causes of pneumonia is more than we currently have for COVID. And hundreds of years of treating Pneumonia has provided tons of examples and knowledge for treatment. And even with those advantages on our side, pneumonia still kills 50k Americans per year with little media coverage. If the media reported daily pneumonia cases the same way they report COVID, there would be a lot more discussion about preventing the spread, changing policy, etc.
We've grown desensitized to Pneumonia because it's been around our entire lives, so the media doesn't bother bringing it up. I'm not really trying to say that COVID isn't serious, or that it's just like some other potentially lethal illness. I'm just saying that the point by a previous poster about media coverage is valid in my opinion. There's coverage of this illness because we haven't become completely desensitized to it (although I'd argue that's happening now too).


I think the fact the COVID is brand new and quite infectious is newsworthy, but I guess thatís just me. Many causes of pneumonia arenít particularly contagious on a person to person level.

I'm not saying it's not newsworthy. I do think that it's often reported in a way that emphasizes "cases" which isn't a great metric, and I think that (at least in my location) COVID in general has faded to a secondary story behind other news as people have gotten tired of hearing about it and more normal things have begun to return to our lives. It's no longer the lead story on every news cast, and instead of having a prominent spot on the front page of local news websites, it's often got a separate tab or slot in a drop down menu of their site. Maybe it should've been that way all along?

Paper Chaser

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2739 on: June 29, 2020, 11:56:00 AM »
We can take precautions against more than one thing! I can choose not to smoke and also wear sunscreen. I donít have to pick one or the other.


One thing that makes pneumonia a bad example against COVID is that while we do have a few pneumonia vaccine options, pneumonia can be caused by many various germies, not just the germies covered in the different vaccines.

Yes. Even still, a viable vaccine against a few of the causes of pneumonia is more than we currently have for COVID. And hundreds of years of treating Pneumonia has provided tons of examples and knowledge for treatment. And even with those advantages on our side, pneumonia still kills 50k Americans per year with little media coverage. If the media reported daily pneumonia cases the same way they report COVID, there would be a lot more discussion about preventing the spread, changing policy, etc.
We've grown desensitized to Pneumonia because it's been around our entire lives, so the media doesn't bother bringing it up. I'm not really trying to say that COVID isn't serious, or that it's just like some other potentially lethal illness. I'm just saying that the point by a previous poster about media coverage is valid in my opinion. There's coverage of this illness because we haven't become completely desensitized to it (although I'd argue that's happening now too).

What exactly is there for the media to discuss with regard to pneumonia?

Most of your points are good arguments for why the media doesn't talk about it much. It's been around a long time. We have treatments. We have vaccines.

Also, I still get the feeling you don't understand what pneumonia is. It's when one's lungs become inflamed due to infection and it can be caused by lots of different bacteria and viruses, including corona viruses. Comparing deaths from a condition like pneumonia to deaths caused by a single novel virus makes no sense.

I'm not exactly arguing for more coverage of pneumonia in the US, I'm just saying that it poses a threat to many, many Americans. The fight against COVID has been a mess in many ways, but we've seen tons of changes made and sacrifices made in order to quell the threat to American lives. I'm not sure why nothing else gets any kind of similar attention on a social, political, media level. If we devoted the same resources to things like traffic deaths, heart disease, and pneumonia that we've dedicated to COVID in the last 3 months, we'd prevent hundreds of thousands of American deaths each year. It would be interesting to me if there were some ratio of attention paid to a threat to American lives vs the lethality of that threat.

Simultaneously, after being bombarded with COVID stuff everywhere for the last 3 months, I think in some ways it's fading into the cultural background in the same way that those other threats have. It's just a part of the background now. And that has impacts on how people are choosing to live their lives.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2740 on: June 29, 2020, 12:08:51 PM »
Yeah, why is the news reporting on this brand new, highly communicable, deadly virus and disease with a constantly changing dataset and new relevant information being discovered, and yet is doing virtually no coverage of these other old things with already robust datasets that everyone is inured to?  Makes no sense man.

Paper Chaser

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2741 on: June 29, 2020, 12:13:04 PM »
Yeah, why is the news reporting on this brand new, highly communicable, deadly virus and disease with a constantly changing dataset and new relevant information being discovered, and yet is doing virtually no coverage of these other old things with already robust datasets that everyone is inured to?  Makes no sense man.

You're framing it as if I have a problem with them reporting about it at all, and that's not the case. But the way that it's being reported, using almost exclusively "Cases" is either lacking context and depth or it's deliberately focusing on the big/scary number at the detriment of the truth.

If they focused on something like "hospitalizations" instead of "cases" that would be a much more useful metric for the public to use in their decision making. If they reported on new studies that indicated the IFR, or occasionally reminded viewers that something like 40-45% of those infected are asymptomatic and could be spreading the virus without even knowing I think it would go a long way not only in their credibility, but in the societal fight against this virus too. New, relavant information is always welcome and appreciated. What I usually see/hear is just some variation of "COVID Cases continue to climb", "The US passed another grim milestone today", etc. People deserve to understand the specifics about the threat to themselves and their family/neighbors/etc. Media seems mostly uninterested in presenting that as a public service, and more interested in stoking views/clicks by focusing on the biggest numbers without any context.
« Last Edit: June 29, 2020, 12:30:54 PM by Paper Chaser »

deborah

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2742 on: June 29, 2020, 12:51:30 PM »
I see cases as a very important metric. This is a new disease. We had the opportunity to stop it entirely - to make it the horrible disease of 2020, much like some other Coronaviruses were the horrible disease of particular years, and havenít become viral infections that we have to cope with as a herd in perpetuity. Unfortunately, the number of cases is becoming so large, and so global that it will be a human herd disease and will need a vaccine - much like AIDS was unknown 50 years ago and has become a human herd disease.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2743 on: June 29, 2020, 01:04:43 PM »
Yeah, why is the news reporting on this brand new, highly communicable, deadly virus and disease with a constantly changing dataset and new relevant information being discovered, and yet is doing virtually no coverage of these other old things with already robust datasets that everyone is inured to?  Makes no sense man.

You're framing it as if I have a problem with them reporting about it at all, and that's not the case. But the way that it's being reported, using almost exclusively "Cases" is either lacking context and depth or it's deliberately focusing on the big/scary number at the detriment of the truth.

If they focused on something like "hospitalizations" instead of "cases" that would be a much more useful metric for the public to use in their decision making. If they reported on new studies that indicated the IFR, or occasionally reminded viewers that something like 40-45% of those infected are asymptomatic and could be spreading the virus without even knowing I think it would go a long way not only in their credibility, but in the societal fight against this virus too. New, relavant information is always welcome and appreciated. What I usually see/hear is just some variation of "COVID Cases continue to climb", "The US passed another grim milestone today", etc. People deserve to understand the specifics about the threat to themselves and their family/neighbors/etc. Media seems mostly uninterested in presenting that as a public service, and more interested in stoking views/clicks by focusing on the biggest numbers without any context.

Watch better news then.  All of that stuff is being reported.  "Media" runs the gamut from credible sources all the way to fox news, and everything in between. 

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2744 on: June 29, 2020, 01:07:51 PM »
I see cases as a very important metric. This is a new disease. We had the opportunity to stop it entirely - to make it the horrible disease of 2020, much like some other Coronaviruses were the horrible disease of particular years, and havenít become viral infections that we have to cope with as a herd in perpetuity. Unfortunately, the number of cases is becoming so large, and so global that it will be a human herd disease and will need a vaccine - much like AIDS was unknown 50 years ago and has become a human herd disease.

Unless you are in a high-risk cohort the risk of contracting AIDS is very, very close to zero, in fact it is so low that unless you are in a risk group a positive test is most likely a false positive. For Covid-19 it seems to be sufficient to be in the same room as someone infected or standing close to someone while they sneeze or cough.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2745 on: June 29, 2020, 02:33:08 PM »


Watch better news then.  All of that stuff is being reported.  "Media" runs the gamut from credible sources all the way to fox news, and everything in between.

"better news" is an oxymoron.  It's all incentivized by getting clicks/eyeballs and hence skews towards sensationalism.  Once the subscription model died, the new monetization model has led to media that focuses on sensationalism and fear -- this applies to even the most "objective" media sources.  If they don't play this strategy they lose.  Check out the book "Trust me, I'm lying".  It deep dives into media manipulation and how it works.
« Last Edit: June 29, 2020, 02:35:09 PM by HBFIRE »

Rosy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2746 on: June 29, 2020, 02:45:05 PM »
Deaths per day continues to drop.

Not where I live. Here in Florida, everything is ticking up and no, the new cases are absolutely not due to increased testing.

Fact is: Since June 1 - testing has increased by less than 25%.
Fact is: Since June 1 - the avg number of cases has quadrupled - as of this morning the cases outstrip testing by five times.

Roughly two weeks ago I watched our governor, Ron DeSantis say this on national TV:
"Spike? what spike - we are not NY". (paraphrased to the best of my recollection:)

We may well hit over 10,000 cases in one day today - we've seen 8500 and 9500 cases in one day for several days now.

Hospitalizations are not peaking yet since it is the younger crowd who is becoming infected.
Many of the young would rather catch it and get it over with. I can understand that nevertheless, it is foolish.
It is unfortunate that this virus has been portrayed to be dangerous only to the old, it gives a false sense of security and immunity.
We should have communicated a hell of a lot better on social platforms that there is still a risk of damaging your health for life.
Point to the two 17-year-olds that just died right here in Florida.

The current cases - the average age in Florida is 37 and continues to drop.

My particular county:
has around a 10% death rate due to the high number of nursing home deaths and that is not slowing down either.
has made wearing masks mandatory as of last week.

Sure, I'm happy about mandatory masks since I am in a high-risk group and staying home - I've only ventured out three times in over two and a half months.
Yet, Mr. R. is an essential worker ... we just do what we can to minimize our risk of exposure - disinfect - wear masks - keep our distance and try not to be anywhere more than 30 minutes indoors.

Masks have proven to be effective so WTH would you not wear one in the absence of any effective medications or immunization?
Everyone we know is taking this virus deadly seriously.
Still, it is only a matter of time until we get it. My hopes of avoiding infection until we have effective meds are dwindling. 

There is a pub in Tampa that has been open on the sly for the entire time - the regulars just come in through the back door.
It is no different from the fools who refuse to wear a mask or pull it down to their chin or people who are convinced that God will spare them during Sunday service because they are so special and virtuous.
That is nothing but a reflection of how the White House has been addressing this virus. Denial is not an effective weapon in the face of a rampaging virus.

July 4th weekend is coming up and I'm wondering how many more cases that will bring within another two weeks.
It has been our local government - the mayors of St. Petersburg and Tampa who mandated mask-wearing and who are shutting down beaches.
The state opened bars and restaurants but many of the local restaurants and bars shut right back down voluntarily within a few days - too many employees who tested positive for the virus.

We all understand the economic devastation of a lockdown, but having a governor who simply wants to march forward regardless, dismissing the spike in cases is infuriating. The NY Yankees are leaving their Florida spring training to go back to NY where it is safer:).
Our hospital beds are slowly filling...
For this moment in time, the hospitalizations do not look bad but it stands to reason that as the young are infected and move freely about the rate of infections spreading to the over 60 crowds will increase.
Therefore in a few weeks' time, perhaps a month, we will see increased deaths as the hospitalized older population slowly passes away.
That is just common sense.
 
I get that the old people don't really seem to count in this big picture whether or not it is openly acknowledged.
Showing compassion is easy - wear the damn mask! Hell, I'll be happy to buy you one!
I was shocked to read that Florida is planning on opening up and allowing visitation in long term care facilities - now? for crying out loud.

All I'm hoping for is that we don't end up like NY because we sure as hell don't have a governor of the same caliber as Cuomo in NY. 

Angela Merkel, the Chancellor of Germany said back in January that she anticipates 60-70% of the population to come down with the virus by the end of the year based on the information and scientific projections she had at the time.....

Flattening the curve?
America's handling of this pandemic will go down in history as an epic failure.
Yet, I have been encouraged by several of the state and local government's handling of the virus.

How long can we wait? Oh, it will go up and down and spread and come back again and test everyone's mettle for all of 2020 and beyond.
It is likely there will only be survival of the fittest both from a health standpoint and from an economic viewpoint.
Imagining all of the consequences of this pandemic makes my head spin - interesting times we live in.

We may be ready to move on and be done with this virus - but the virus is not done with us yet.
Looks like Florida may be stuck with the worst-case scenario. Lockdown? I doubt it.

I specifically said deaths, and you correct me with case/infection data?  I'll agree that there may be a spike of deaths in Florida soon, too early to say, but it cases HAVE been increasing in Florida for about a month now (7-Day moving average low point 726 on 6/1), so... where's the increase in deaths? Looks pretty flat to me as pictured above.  Time will tell.  But if you look back about a month that's what people said about Georgia to.  Why did we stop talking about that state?  Georgia was going to be the prime narrative about why states should not be opening early.

1. Actually, as of this morning's latest stats, the death rate has been going up for a week now.
https://projects.tampabay.com/projects/data/coronavirus/en/

I wouldn't call it a spike by any means. At this point, it is just an uptick and I agree with you that we may see a spike in deaths eventually.
The new cases are on average around 37 so I don't think we'll see a spike in death but a continued uptick from the current hospitalizations that's all.
The spike will show up once the younger population has successfully spread to the older population.

Like you said, time will tell - I'd be very happy if nothing came of it.

2. The rest of my post was just a post, not specifically aimed at you or your statement about the death rate:).

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2747 on: June 29, 2020, 02:55:45 PM »

1. Actually, as of this morning's latest stats, the death rate has been going up for a week now.
https://projects.tampabay.com/projects/data/coronavirus/en/


Curious what the source is, as it's different than heren (google):



and here (Worldometer):


Plina

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2748 on: June 29, 2020, 03:25:04 PM »

Probably referring to US deaths, which is still down on the 7 day average.

Right.  Case fatality rate is also dropping quickly, likely due to a couple reasons: 1) higher volume testing catching more infections, and 2) higher rate of case identifications in younger demographic.

Our state is having a second wave of cases. The local news is reporting a lot of them are due to young people/young family members (including children) getting infected and having mild or no symptoms and passing it on. One family outbreak alone was responsible for over 20 cases! This is why you shouldn't have big indoor get-togethers and dinners.

Strangely the cases are mostly concentrated in a few lower socio-economic suburbs and I'm not sure what, if anything, to make of that.

Here, they have found that bus drivers, tram drivers and taxi drivers are among the most affected occupations. They have jobs were they can't avoid contact with people. They are also often with an immigrant background living in lower socio-economics part of the city as well as living in smaller housing sometimes in multigenerational living

LaineyAZ

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2749 on: June 29, 2020, 04:09:19 PM »
Arizona is now in the critical/red zone.  100% of ICU bed headroom is in use, and only 3% contact tracing.
Active cases increasing.
https://www.covidactnow.org/us/az/?s=58173

And this is in the summertime when our population is less because snowbirds have left, school is not in session, and traffic has lessened.  Does not bode well for any relief in autumn; if anything, it will worsen.