Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 253678 times)

Seadog

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2350 on: May 31, 2020, 05:14:17 PM »
That's what I truly can't get my head around. Something like 150k (quick googleing) ppl die every day. That means since Jan, something like 22m ppl have died. Covid deaths are like 400k. So if you died in the last 5 months, it's 50x more likely that it was something other than this bug that got you.
Even during the peak week at 7500/day, that means it as 20 times more likely another cause.

Comparison bias plays a big role here.  since the early 20th century, deaths from infectious diseases have declined by an order of magnitude thanks to vaccines, antibiotics, and other triumphs of modern medicine.  For this reason, our sense of scale is very different when it comes to pandemics than for other causes of deaths that we've had much more limited success treating.

That said, I think a legitimate(and uncomfortable) thought experiment is to ask, for the amount of resources we've spent dealing with this pandemic, could we have done more total good directing the same amount of money towards initiatives likely to benefit a large chunk of society(both public health, and otherwise)?  I think the answer to this question is probably "yes," as 6 trillion dollars funds a whole lot of cancer research, mosquito netting, medical treatment for those who may not be able to afford it, and other things that stand a reasonable chance at saving more lives with a lower price tag.

Agree 100%. The whole of the west lacks any real perspective on what real hardship is. I've lived and worked in shithole countries where lots of food wasn't available. Grocery stores with more empty shelves than full. A remote work site where on one day I remember (wasn't common, but still) we got one meal of white rice and fried veggies, because that's all they could get. Obviously that's not going to kill anyone, but certainly adds a bit of perspective when most people think the only thing between them and a 100 types of out of season veggies or a dozen different cuts of beef is a 3 mile trip to the grocery store and a charge card.

This is why all the labour issues is such a big concern for me. Farms can't get the pickers they need. Meat plants are being closed because someone had the bug. My friend couldn't get certain beef sandwiches at Wendy's the other day because they had no patties. Most people don't appreciate the scope, scale and complexity of the west's entire food production, distribution, and sale platforms. How does a tomato grown in Chili get to Northern Alberta? And why does it only cost a dollar?

That lack of hardship and having to think for yourself is why half of (at least Canada) was 1 paycheque away from insolvency,"I'll never lose my job". Many immigrants save like 40% of their income. Why do most ppl suck at most real world skills that the rest of the world learns because they have to? I've seen people lose their shit because their cell phone died in their car, and they can't even read a frigging map. Most people can't even drive a standard car here.  What happens when the water goes out? "That'll never happen". Again in said shit hole countries I've gone like 3 days without was the longest. A dozen 2L pop bottles in an attic, purification tablets for another several hundred liters, knowing where nearest fresh water source is, and you can ride out pretty much any water stoppage. For like $20. How many people do this stuff? It isn't prepper fear mongering, it's a $20 insurance policy that could save your life, and puts you ahead of 98% of the population. As the saying goes, humanity is 9 meals away from anarchy. I have a rotating ~1 month pantry. This literally costs nothing, since it's all food you're constantly eating and resupplying.

When shit gets real, it's far too late. The west's idea of "shit getting real" is when Purell was sold out, and they were limited to 4 cans of soup.
« Last Edit: May 31, 2020, 05:17:07 PM by Seadog »

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2351 on: May 31, 2020, 05:34:28 PM »
No need to devolve into personal attacks, folks. It's unnecessary and doesn't move the discussion forward, and a pretty low-rent strategy.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2352 on: May 31, 2020, 06:06:18 PM »
Most of the West doesn't know what real hardship is, and Bloop doesn't know what a real personal attack is. :p

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2353 on: May 31, 2020, 06:23:39 PM »


I donít know if Australia had this kidís show, but in my mind that ďnot all Australians are bloop bloopsĒ made an image in my mind that bloop bloop is similar to a boohbah and Australia is full of them.

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2354 on: May 31, 2020, 07:20:12 PM »


I donít know if Australia had this kidís show, but in my mind that ďnot all Australians are bloop bloopsĒ made an image in my mind that bloop bloop is similar to a boohbah and Australia is full of them.

If a Vogon fucked a rainbow, this would definitely be the babies 🤣

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2355 on: May 31, 2020, 07:38:41 PM »
Sorry for my broken brain, bloop

Davnasty

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2356 on: May 31, 2020, 08:13:17 PM »
not all Australians are Bloop Bloops.

I will never ever stop laughing

I'm not sure why this is so funny, but it is.

Now I kinda wish it was slang for Australians.

Seadog

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2357 on: June 01, 2020, 05:55:52 AM »
[...] It makes far more sense to concentrate on eliminating all causes of death as best we can.
Ambitious.

I like it.  If you set an impossible goal as your target, it makes it an awful lot easier to give up on doing anything at all.  This is the path of least resistance.


:P

No need to be facetious. As JS82 pointed out, we're literally spending trillions of dollars here. There are multiple entire countries where 20+% of the population has AIDS. Many countries in Africa where thousands of people die from Malaria. Across all countries (some worse than others) where addiction/depression/suicide are all real problems claiming thousands more. These things are not "pie in the sky, maybe one day we'll fix them" issues. We know how to treat/reduce these things NOW. Malaria nets, anti-malarial pills, successful anti-virals for AIDS which mean it's not a death sentence (if you can afford them), and addiction specialists/counseling, in-house treatment programs. The exacerbating sad fact for me is that these people are being claimed in the prime of their lives, vs the average age of 85 or whatever for this.

Much like people can't differentiate the difference between the distance to Mars, Another star, or another galaxy because the numbers are just too huge and beyond anything of human scale, the same can be said for trillions of dollars. If we wanted to spend $6t on saving lives, it could have been much better deployed.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2358 on: June 01, 2020, 06:14:53 AM »
Ambitious AND humorless

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2359 on: June 01, 2020, 07:24:31 AM »
[...] It makes far more sense to concentrate on eliminating all causes of death as best we can.
Ambitious.

I like it.  If you set an impossible goal as your target, it makes it an awful lot easier to give up on doing anything at all.  This is the path of least resistance.


:P

No need to be facetious. As JS82 pointed out, we're literally spending trillions of dollars here. There are multiple entire countries where 20+% of the population has AIDS. Many countries in Africa where thousands of people die from Malaria. Across all countries (some worse than others) where addiction/depression/suicide are all real problems claiming thousands more. These things are not "pie in the sky, maybe one day we'll fix them" issues. We know how to treat/reduce these things NOW. Malaria nets, anti-malarial pills, successful anti-virals for AIDS which mean it's not a death sentence (if you can afford them), and addiction specialists/counseling, in-house treatment programs. The exacerbating sad fact for me is that these people are being claimed in the prime of their lives, vs the average age of 85 or whatever for this.

Much like people can't differentiate the difference between the distance to Mars, Another star, or another galaxy because the numbers are just too huge and beyond anything of human scale, the same can be said for trillions of dollars. If we wanted to spend $6t on saving lives, it could have been much better deployed.

It's because people are sadly parochial. It's like in my country, we import lots of migrants who usually come here and do jobs like 7-11 employee, Uber driver, milk shop owner etc for which they are, in truth, overqualified. But normal lazy Aussies won't do those low-wage, low-prestige jobs so it's a win win. The migrants come here, improve their lot in life in a 1st world country, and their kids grow up to be the next generation's engineers, lawyers, doctors. It's a win for everyone but your typical parochial Aussie just thinks "that's one less job for an Australian", not seeing that the net improvement to society (not to mention the net improvement to the migrant and his or her future family).

Nationality is such an artificial construct these days that it pays to think bigger. The old way of thinking - that the life or financial security of your countryman is more important - has to die out.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2360 on: June 01, 2020, 07:44:01 AM »
Agree with everything you said there, bloop. It's much the same in the US.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2361 on: June 01, 2020, 08:09:09 AM »
Agree with everything you said there, bloop. It's much the same in the US.

+2

We rage at immigrant fruit pickers in the USA and point to teen unemployment. Teens donít wanna pick fruit. Their parents probably donít want them to either.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2362 on: June 01, 2020, 08:18:02 AM »
Hey did you guys know that Australia doesnít have COVID19 all that bad?

Bloop Bloop has made sure that we are all aware of that.  You and New Zealand.

Lol Iím American so my tongue was in cheek on that one. Itís a little frustrating because the us cdc is reporting huge excess mortality from the past several weeks so this is clearly a big problem. Mostly though, Iím just jealous they other countries like Australia handled it better and my frustrations and jealous manifest with snarky humor.

Wrenchturner

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2363 on: June 01, 2020, 08:22:54 AM »
Hey did you guys know that Australia doesnít have COVID19 all that bad?

Bloop Bloop has made sure that we are all aware of that.  You and New Zealand.

Lol Iím American so my tongue was in cheek on that one. Itís a little frustrating because the us cdc is reporting huge excess mortality from the past several weeks so this is clearly a big problem. Mostly though, Iím just jealous they other countries like Australia handled it better and my frustrations and jealous manifest with snarky humor.

I'm a bit jealous too.  The curve in Canada has been flattened but it hasn't fallen much and I worry that it's waiting us out and the whole shut down will have been for nothing.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2364 on: June 01, 2020, 08:26:05 AM »
Ours hasnít really fallen either, and Iím just crossing my fingers it starts to soon. We did have zero deaths reported in my state yesterday, which we havenít seen since early days.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2365 on: June 01, 2020, 08:53:55 AM »
[...] It makes far more sense to concentrate on eliminating all causes of death as best we can.
Ambitious.

I like it.  If you set an impossible goal as your target, it makes it an awful lot easier to give up on doing anything at all.  This is the path of least resistance.


:P

No need to be facetious. As JS82 pointed out, we're literally spending trillions of dollars here. There are multiple entire countries where 20+% of the population has AIDS. Many countries in Africa where thousands of people die from Malaria. Across all countries (some worse than others) where addiction/depression/suicide are all real problems claiming thousands more. These things are not "pie in the sky, maybe one day we'll fix them" issues. We know how to treat/reduce these things NOW. Malaria nets, anti-malarial pills, successful anti-virals for AIDS which mean it's not a death sentence (if you can afford them), and addiction specialists/counseling, in-house treatment programs. The exacerbating sad fact for me is that these people are being claimed in the prime of their lives, vs the average age of 85 or whatever for this.

Much like people can't differentiate the difference between the distance to Mars, Another star, or another galaxy because the numbers are just too huge and beyond anything of human scale, the same can be said for trillions of dollars. If we wanted to spend $6t on saving lives, it could have been much better deployed.

It's because people are sadly parochial. It's like in my country, we import lots of migrants who usually come here and do jobs like 7-11 employee, Uber driver, milk shop owner etc for which they are, in truth, overqualified. But normal lazy Aussies won't do those low-wage, low-prestige jobs so it's a win win. The migrants come here, improve their lot in life in a 1st world country, and their kids grow up to be the next generation's engineers, lawyers, doctors. It's a win for everyone but your typical parochial Aussie just thinks "that's one less job for an Australian", not seeing that the net improvement to society (not to mention the net improvement to the migrant and his or her future family).

Nationality is such an artificial construct these days that it pays to think bigger. The old way of thinking - that the life or financial security of your countryman is more important - has to die out.

Yep. My Mexican grandparents never went to high school. My dad and his siblings had to spend all their childhood summer weekends picking tomatoes on farms here in Michigan to help make ends meet. Most of them finished high school and all got factory or other decent jobs so that their kids didn't have to be in the fields. I now have a doctorate and am self-employed, and my cousins (there are 15 of us all together) all have at least some college education and/or own their own businesses. We've all gratefully used what we were given and worked very hard to be successful. I'm sure some people hate us and think we've taken jobs and opportunities from "good white" Americans. Those people can fuck themselves.

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Spud

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2367 on: June 01, 2020, 10:58:51 AM »
Wonderful news coming out of England last weekend.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/sun-s-out-lockdown-s-over-uk-police-say-public-will-do-what-they-want-20200601-p54y99.html

Interesting to see how our behaviour is reported in other countries - it's absolutely on the money. At this point in time, the UK is basically the same as Sweden with the exception of bars and restaurants still being closed. I say that because outdoors, pretty much anywhere, people are behaving as they would have done pre-pandemic. The comments from the senior police officer in that article are spot on. There's still a load of rules in place, but there might as well not be because they are not enforceable.

If there was a spike in deaths/new cases in the next month and we're to lockdown again, I genuinely believe that at least 50% of the country wouldn't do it. The prevailing attitude now is exactly as the article says. The nice weather is here, we've all had enough of being stuck indoors so we'll do what we want.

There's a park two minutes walk from my house. It's full of people sunbathing and playing sport etc. I have never seen it as full as it is now. It's great. This is in the suburbs of a decent sized city. There has been no attempt made by local police to break it up. They're too busy doing real police work because real crime is back on the menu, despite it dropping during lockdown. They don't have manpower or bandwidth to tell sunbathers to lie further apart or wear a mask etc. More important things to do.

My wife and I are still adhering to our own personal lockdown, but I'd estimate that 75% of the people we know and live near are not. Good for them. I'm no longer pro-lockdown. I just think it's funny how we've basically come full circle and ended up where Sweden is. That said I think we've saved lives by locking down. I don't think the true economic impact of that lockdown is going to be felt until Q4 of 2020 or Q1 of 2021. There's talk about it in the news over here, as I'm sure there is everywhere, but only when the government cease propping up the economy will we feel it.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2368 on: June 01, 2020, 11:13:56 AM »
At this point in time, the UK is basically the same as Sweden with the exception of bars and restaurants still being closed.

The US is similar currently.  In fact, Covid-19 isn't even in the news now.

mm1970

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2369 on: June 01, 2020, 11:17:06 AM »
Agree with everything you said there, bloop. It's much the same in the US.

+2

We rage at immigrant fruit pickers in the USA and point to teen unemployment. Teens donít wanna pick fruit. Their parents probably donít want them to either.

We tried that.

https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2018/07/31/634442195/when-the-u-s-government-tried-to-replace-migrant-farmworkers-with-high-schoolers

mm1970

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2370 on: June 01, 2020, 11:28:06 AM »
Quote
Yep. My Mexican grandparents never went to high school. My dad and his siblings had to spend all their childhood summer weekends picking tomatoes on farms here in Michigan to help make ends meet. Most of them finished high school and all got factory or other decent jobs so that their kids didn't have to be in the fields. I now have a doctorate and am self-employed, and my cousins (there are 15 of us all together) all have at least some college education and/or own their own businesses. We've all gratefully used what we were given and worked very hard to be successful. I'm sure some people hate us and think we've taken jobs and opportunities from "good white" Americans. Those people can fuck themselves.
@OtherJen makes great points.
y
My family history is similar in the whole poverty aspect, but we're white.

My great great grandparents and their children were all farmers.  Great greats came over from Germany, had 18 children, 15 lived to adulthood.  Only the last few actually learned English in school.

My grandparents (both sets) were also poor.  They worked manual jobs, had small farms, had many children to help out.  (This was the great depression.)  My mom's parents saved enough money to send the last kid to trade school.  My dad was in WWII, became a mechanic.  For the most part, my parents and their siblings mostly managed to get factory-type (but not actual factory, more like skilled labor) jobs.

My cousins is where people started going to college.  The oldest ones, no.  They continued with blue collar jobs.  Then a few older cousins became nurses.  I'm almost 50, there are 4 of us who are all the same age - we all went to college, and 2 of us have master's degrees (again, the women).  I have two younger (female) cousins, the youngest of all of us, who have PhDs in science.

It's funny though - occasionally I'll hear a complaint from people in my home town (not the cousins who went to college, but others) about "Mexicans taking our jobs". Dude, you live in rural Western PA.  I'm pretty sure they ain't taking your job, unless you are talking about companies that move their manufacturing right over the border.  My best friend is Latina.  She's 4th generation here in one leg, her great grandparents or grandparents moved here.  I think she has a couple of uncles who were born in Mexico.  She doesn't speak a lick of Spanish (but understands some).  She's every bit of American as they are and they don't see it, because everyone in my home town is white.

We vacationed together once, and we were on a small bus tour with some folks from Wisconsin.  They started going off on California and all those damn Mexicans.  I finally said "hey, bestie, when did your family come over from Mexico?" just to shut them up.

Cassie

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2371 on: June 01, 2020, 01:04:54 PM »
People are so ignorant about immigrants. We need them to do low skilled work. Itís a win-win as others have noted and the next generations use their skills to get a education and good jobs. Everyone benefits.

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Gin1984

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2374 on: June 01, 2020, 03:53:46 PM »
Agree with everything you said there, bloop. It's much the same in the US.

+2

We rage at immigrant fruit pickers in the USA and point to teen unemployment. Teens donít wanna pick fruit. Their parents probably donít want them to either.
I did it when I was a pre-teen for less than four hours. You could not pay me enough to do it again. And I did a horrible job, I was way too slow. 

Telecaster

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2375 on: June 01, 2020, 06:15:20 PM »
Picking fruit blows.  It is hot, sticky, dirty work.   Yuck.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2376 on: June 01, 2020, 06:46:49 PM »
Does this make sense?  And if it does, why would deaths from other medical issues also increase?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/01/us/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-new-jersey.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2377 on: June 01, 2020, 07:01:27 PM »
Because with the system flooded with covid patients, there are less resources for others.

Around the world, people have been specifically asked not to come in unless it's urgent, and not overwhelm the system. And people who are already sick in some way are hesitant to go to the doctor or hospital because they fear adding covid to their woes. That means the guy who has chest pains waits for 30 minutes before calling the ambulance, instead of 5 minutes. The guy with pain on passing stool with blood in it doesn't go to get checked. The person having a severe asthma attack thinks, "I could go to the hospital and get oxygen, but then I'll be among covid patients, and that's not going to help my breathing, is it?"

As well, medical protocols change: paramedics around the world are doing things like coming to a scene, interviewing the patient at six feet to assess whether it might be covid, and if so then taking the time to put PPE on. That means an extra 3-5 minutes before treatment, and with someone already on the edge, that extra time could be enough to push them off. And people needing CPR are just getting a couple of rounds instead of doing it indefinitely. And so on and so forth through the whole system.

Seadog

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2378 on: June 01, 2020, 07:05:19 PM »
Does this make sense?  And if it does, why would deaths from other medical issues also increase?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/01/us/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-new-jersey.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Simply because being stuck inside watching TV, eating crap, drinking, isolated from friends and family is horrible for your health, and for people already near the edge, that may be enough to push them over? People get fatter, they exercise less, they're far more lonely, and they turn to things like drugs and alcohol which are bad for them. I read alcohol sales were up something like 300% here over the last couple months. They can't get the preventative medical care they need, nor the actual care they need for real current problems. My neighbor had a hip replacement delayed several months. Others had "non-urgent" cancer treatments delayed. Doctors aren't perfect, and something deemed non-urgent may not have been so accurate.

Think about within the context of prisons as a whole, are isolation cells in jails happy places, or sad places?

Edit: Just read this shortly after my post, which I feel nicely compliments it:

Quote
Weíve never seen numbers like this, in such a short period of time

Quote
I mean, weíve seen a yearís worth of suicide attempts in the last four weeks,


https://nypost.com/2020/05/24/california-city-has-seen-more-deaths-by-suicide-than-covid-19-doctor/
« Last Edit: June 01, 2020, 07:15:46 PM by Seadog »

Davnasty

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2379 on: June 01, 2020, 08:59:40 PM »
I read alcohol sales were up something like 300% here over the last couple months.

Where'd you see that?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/805026/beer-wine-and-liquor-store-sales-us-by-month/

This only shows an increase in retail sales of ~19%. Considering reduced consumption at bars that may not be much of an increase in overall consumption.

Maybe the 300% was referring to some specific sector like online sales?

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2380 on: June 01, 2020, 09:26:43 PM »
Hey did you guys know that Australia doesnít have COVID19 all that bad?

Bloop Bloop has made sure that we are all aware of that.  You and New Zealand.

Lol Iím American so my tongue was in cheek on that one. Itís a little frustrating because the us cdc is reporting huge excess mortality from the past several weeks so this is clearly a big problem. Mostly though, Iím just jealous they other countries like Australia handled it better and my frustrations and jealous manifest with snarky humor.

I'm a bit jealous too.  The curve in Canada has been flattened but it hasn't fallen much and I worry that it's waiting us out and the whole shut down will have been for nothing.

Here in Toronto we seem to be working really hard to bring covid back.  It's frustrating to see.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2381 on: June 01, 2020, 11:33:29 PM »
We've learned to live with other communicable diseases, i.e. the common cold and influenza. I think we're going to do the same with this - even if it is several times more dangerous for the average person. Outside of specific high-risk settings like nursing homes or hospitals I do not think a significant number of people are going to keep wearing masks for months, or possibly years. Eventually the media will turn it's reporting to something new and COVID-19 will fade into the background like every other major story. People will go back to their deeply ingrained behaviors and accept the risk just like we accept the risks from accidental death and lifestyle diseases.

The specific risk is just too abstract for most people. If you're a healthy 30- or 40-something all indications so far are you have a very low risk personally. If people were breaking out with boils on their faces like small pox, or there was a very high mortality rate like Ebola, perhaps we'd treat it differently. But for the vast majority of people I think they're going to accept the risk just like most people do by not even getting an annual flu shot. Maybe we'll all be a bit better about washing our hands and not going to work if sick, but otherwise I think we're going to see a return to normal behavior with a higher mortality rate among the elderly and those with other comorbidities.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2382 on: June 02, 2020, 12:38:36 AM »
We've learned to live with other communicable diseases, i.e. the common cold and influenza. I think we're going to do the same with this - even if it is several times more dangerous for the average person. Outside of specific high-risk settings like nursing homes or hospitals I do not think a significant number of people are going to keep wearing masks for months, or possibly years. Eventually the media will turn it's reporting to something new and COVID-19 will fade into the background like every other major story. People will go back to their deeply ingrained behaviors and accept the risk just like we accept the risks from accidental death and lifestyle diseases.

The specific risk is just too abstract for most people. If you're a healthy 30- or 40-something all indications so far are you have a very low risk personally. If people were breaking out with boils on their faces like small pox, or there was a very high mortality rate like Ebola, perhaps we'd treat it differently. But for the vast majority of people I think they're going to accept the risk just like most people do by not even getting an annual flu shot. Maybe we'll all be a bit better about washing our hands and not going to work if sick, but otherwise I think we're going to see a return to normal behavior with a higher mortality rate among the elderly and those with other comorbidities.

I think this is possibly true if we find that there are no (or minimal) serious long-term consequences from having had CV-19.  But we don't yet know if this is true.  Whilst the risk of death might be low if you're a healthy 30- or 40- something, it is yet to be proven that it is a very low risk illness even for this age group.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2383 on: June 02, 2020, 02:08:51 AM »
We've learned to live with other communicable diseases, i.e. the common cold and influenza. I think we're going to do the same with this - even if it is several times more dangerous for the average person. Outside of specific high-risk settings like nursing homes or hospitals I do not think a significant number of people are going to keep wearing masks for months, or possibly years. Eventually the media will turn it's reporting to something new and COVID-19 will fade into the background like every other major story. People will go back to their deeply ingrained behaviors and accept the risk just like we accept the risks from accidental death and lifestyle diseases.

The specific risk is just too abstract for most people. If you're a healthy 30- or 40-something all indications so far are you have a very low risk personally. If people were breaking out with boils on their faces like small pox, or there was a very high mortality rate like Ebola, perhaps we'd treat it differently. But for the vast majority of people I think they're going to accept the risk just like most people do by not even getting an annual flu shot. Maybe we'll all be a bit better about washing our hands and not going to work if sick, but otherwise I think we're going to see a return to normal behavior with a higher mortality rate among the elderly and those with other comorbidities.

I think this is possibly true if we find that there are no (or minimal) serious long-term consequences from having had CV-19.  But we don't yet know if this is true.  Whilst the risk of death might be low if you're a healthy 30- or 40- something, it is yet to be proven that it is a very low risk illness even for this age group.
If covid-19 does become endemic in some countries I can immediately see two consequences.  The first is that life expectancy in those countries will decline.  The second is that residents in those countries will be unwelcome visitors in countries which have eliminated the virus.  No more holidays in Tolkien land for Americans.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2384 on: June 02, 2020, 03:35:06 AM »
My wife and I are still adhering to our own personal lockdown, but I'd estimate that 75% of the people we know and live near are not. Good for them. I'm no longer pro-lockdown. I just think it's funny how we've basically come full circle and ended up where Sweden is. That said I think we've saved lives by locking down. I don't think the true economic impact of that lockdown is going to be felt until Q4 of 2020 or Q1 of 2021. There's talk about it in the news over here, as I'm sure there is everywhere, but only when the government cease propping up the economy will we feel it.

The thing is there is no way to really tell from how people behave outside.  I agree that I'm seeing lots of gatherings outdoors that are not witihin the rules (i.e. people who obviously don't live together sitting closer than 2m).  Honestly if they are going to do it I would much much rather they do it outdoors than indoors.

I am often outdoors with the kids - so we will be adding to the impression that "there are a lot of people out" (we live in a very busy part of London with lots of high rise flats, meaning the green space is well used under normal circumstances, let alone when gyms, leisure centres, pools, soft play centres, and other people's houses are out of bounds).  Since the lockdown was eased sometimes if they see their friends in the park we now let the kids play, rather than whisking them away (they are both back in school with those kids this week anyway).  Still none of us have been in somebody else's house for 10 weeks.  I've been in the office twice and saw nobody either time.  Haven't got on public transport, or been in a shop.

My interactions where I physically speak to somebody not in my household for more than 5s/closer than 2m or touch something they have touched are still down to probably about 1% of what they would normally be.  Yet normally you wouldn't see me, because I'd be in my office, on the bus, buying a sandwich in a sandwich shop, picking up some bits in the supermarket: yet now you will see me often, because I am often giving the kids a run-around in the local park, given they cannot do this at school/nursery any more (or at least, not until recently, and even now only 2 days a week).

I am NOT an expert, so I have no idea whether what we are doing is enough.  But I really worry about this narrative that "everybody is ignoring the lock-down" because that will just encourage people to ignore it more (why bother when nobody else is?) - when actually what I have seen until recently is people doing their best under difficult circumstances.  If anything is going to kill compliance and drive a second wave it will be cynicism about the whole exercise.  Unfortunately we in the UK are very good at cynicism.

The real test will be autumn, when we can no longer do this stuff outdoors, people are tempted to break the rules at home instead, and Covid is mixed in with all the normal seasonal colds and flus.  That's my big worry, much more so than the summer.  I really hope against all odds our government can get their track and trace up and running properly by then (which will rely on government not burning whatever last bit of credibility and goodwill they still have from the rest of us), and that our brilliant medics around the world can continue to work on better treatments to get sick people home again safe (or that immunity turns out to be stronger and more widespread than currently seems to be the case), or we are really toast come autumn/winter.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2385 on: June 02, 2020, 04:06:33 AM »
For those of you that think there will be a "second wave", why do you think that way?

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

Browsing through a few geographical areas I can't find any that is projected to have a second wave.  Throughout history some pandemics do have a second wave (probably not an accurate description) and some don't. 

I'm confused because modelling seemed to be the main evidence used for lockdowns, now that modelling isn't showing what the concerned want to see the model output seems to be ignored.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2386 on: June 02, 2020, 04:22:16 AM »
For those of you that think there will be a "second wave", why do you think that way?

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

Browsing through a few geographical areas I can't find any that is projected to have a second wave.  Throughout history some pandemics do have a second wave (probably not an accurate description) and some don't. 

I'm confused because modelling seemed to be the main evidence used for lockdowns, now that modelling isn't showing what the concerned want to see the model output seems to be ignored.

Because it's almost impossible to 1) completely eliminate the virus within a country, and 2) restrict travel to and from that country.  There are only a few countries that acted fast and comprehensively enough to have a chance (e.g. Australia).  In other countries, when lockdowns and other measures end, or possibly when summer ends and there's more indoor contact, the residual virus circulating in the population will again go through the susceptible population.  There will be a resurgence in the US because the first wave never really diminished in most of the country.

The modeling doesn't show a second wave, except for the models that actually model stopping lockdown measures.  See for example: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6493/860 or a news report of that same study: https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/14/some-social-distancing-may-be-needed-into-2022-to-keep-coronavirus-in-check-new-study-says/

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2387 on: June 02, 2020, 04:37:49 AM »
For those of you that think there will be a "second wave", why do you think that way?
Because Spanish flu.

But...
1. the second and third waves were brought about by soldiers returning from the Great War
2. it's now thought that most of the deaths were from secondary bacterial infections.

As we do not have millions of men living in unsanitary conditions with poor food who are about to come flooding back to our countries, and we have antibiotics, this is not likely.

Different things are different. When people are struggling with the challenges of something new, they try to deal with it emotionally by pretending it's the same as some previous thing. But different things are different.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2388 on: June 02, 2020, 05:28:13 AM »
I will be super happy if we manage to avoid a second wave.  And maybe that will happen (either because it turns out lots of us have immunity, or the thing mutates to something less vile, or numbers will fall enough in the summer that a really good track and trace will be sufficient to contain any resurgence).

But I don't think we have the evidence we need to be confident (or even expect) that easing lockdown wouldn't eventually generate a second wave.  So it seems to me it's something to be alert for, to try to avoid another very strict, economically and socially damaging lockdown of the type we are just starting to come out of here.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2389 on: June 02, 2020, 06:30:23 AM »
Agree with everything you said there, bloop. It's much the same in the US.

+2

We rage at immigrant fruit pickers in the USA and point to teen unemployment. Teens donít wanna pick fruit. Their parents probably donít want them to either.

We tried that.

https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2018/07/31/634442195/when-the-u-s-government-tried-to-replace-migrant-farmworkers-with-high-schoolers

Gotta love how there an npr story for everything!

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2390 on: June 02, 2020, 09:33:25 AM »
This study appeared in The Lancet this week:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext

And the image below is from that study.  What does the dashed vertical line represent at about the 0.15 mark on the graph?

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2391 on: June 02, 2020, 09:38:31 AM »
Agree with everything you said there, bloop. It's much the same in the US.

+2

We rage at immigrant fruit pickers in the USA and point to teen unemployment. Teens donít wanna pick fruit. Their parents probably donít want them to either.

We tried that.

https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2018/07/31/634442195/when-the-u-s-government-tried-to-replace-migrant-farmworkers-with-high-schoolers

Gotta love how there an npr story for everything!

Oh how times don't change.  Modern day slaves.  It's never been because Americans don't want to do it, they just aren't able to be exploited and won't do it under those conditions.  I rather enjoyed that type of work, in high school and college.  Kept me in shape.  I'd still do it if I had time, but that's because it was a job, not a lifestyle of being crammed into community housing in squalid conditions.  I don't think the answer to "Americans won't work under these conditions for this pay" should be "lets find some brown people to exploit".

Quote
"These [high school students] had the words and whiteness to say what they were feeling and could act out in a way that Mexican-Americans who had been living this way for decades simply didn't have the power or space for the American public to listen to them," she says. "The students dropped out because the conditions were so atrocious, and the growers weren't able to mask that up."
She says the A-TEAM "reveals a very important reality: It's not about work ethic [for undocumented workers]. It's about [the fact] that this labor is not meant to be done under such bad conditions and bad wages."

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2392 on: June 02, 2020, 09:57:06 AM »
This study appeared in The Lancet this week:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext

And the image below is from that study.  What does the dashed vertical line represent at about the 0.15 mark on the graph?

The average adjusted odds ratio using the data from all studies.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2393 on: June 02, 2020, 10:20:15 AM »
We've learned to live with other communicable diseases, i.e. the common cold and influenza. I think we're going to do the same with this - even if it is several times more dangerous for the average person. Outside of specific high-risk settings like nursing homes or hospitals I do not think a significant number of people are going to keep wearing masks for months, or possibly years. Eventually the media will turn it's reporting to something new and COVID-19 will fade into the background like every other major story. People will go back to their deeply ingrained behaviors and accept the risk just like we accept the risks from accidental death and lifestyle diseases.

The specific risk is just too abstract for most people. If you're a healthy 30- or 40-something all indications so far are you have a very low risk personally. If people were breaking out with boils on their faces like small pox, or there was a very high mortality rate like Ebola, perhaps we'd treat it differently. But for the vast majority of people I think they're going to accept the risk just like most people do by not even getting an annual flu shot. Maybe we'll all be a bit better about washing our hands and not going to work if sick, but otherwise I think we're going to see a return to normal behavior with a higher mortality rate among the elderly and those with other comorbidities.

I think this is possibly true if we find that there are no (or minimal) serious long-term consequences from having had CV-19.  But we don't yet know if this is true.  Whilst the risk of death might be low if you're a healthy 30- or 40- something, it is yet to be proven that it is a very low risk illness even for this age group.

Unless the long-term consequences are far more serious/prevalent than appear to be the case now, I don't think it will make a difference. Once again, it's too abstract of a risk. Are you going to notice if your heart weakened and your risk of death is doubled? Maybe, but how many people do the same thing to themselves everyday with lifestyle choices like diet, smoking, alcohol, drugs, and exercise?

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2394 on: June 02, 2020, 10:32:36 AM »
Given that there are fairly widespread demonstrations and rioting in US right now, I think the wait is pretty much over except amongst those who can choose to do so.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2395 on: June 02, 2020, 12:12:52 PM »
Oh how times don't change.  Modern day slaves.  It's never been because Americans don't want to do it, they just aren't able to be exploited and won't do it under those conditions.  I rather enjoyed that type of work, in high school and college.  Kept me in shape.  I'd still do it if I had time, but that's because it was a job, not a lifestyle of being crammed into community housing in squalid conditions.  I don't think the answer to "Americans won't work under these conditions for this pay" should be "lets find some brown people to exploit".

If picking crops involved a 40 hour week work week and paid $40k plus a two week vacation and a dental plan, plenty of Americans would sign up to do it. 

The issue is a failure to provide a living wage for an extremely difficult job.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2396 on: June 02, 2020, 01:06:30 PM »
We've learned to live with other communicable diseases, i.e. the common cold and influenza. I think we're going to do the same with this - even if it is several times more dangerous for the average person. Outside of specific high-risk settings like nursing homes or hospitals I do not think a significant number of people are going to keep wearing masks for months, or possibly years. Eventually the media will turn it's reporting to something new and COVID-19 will fade into the background like every other major story. People will go back to their deeply ingrained behaviors and accept the risk just like we accept the risks from accidental death and lifestyle diseases.

The specific risk is just too abstract for most people. If you're a healthy 30- or 40-something all indications so far are you have a very low risk personally. If people were breaking out with boils on their faces like small pox, or there was a very high mortality rate like Ebola, perhaps we'd treat it differently. But for the vast majority of people I think they're going to accept the risk just like most people do by not even getting an annual flu shot. Maybe we'll all be a bit better about washing our hands and not going to work if sick, but otherwise I think we're going to see a return to normal behavior with a higher mortality rate among the elderly and those with other comorbidities.

I think this is possibly true if we find that there are no (or minimal) serious long-term consequences from having had CV-19.  But we don't yet know if this is true.  Whilst the risk of death might be low if you're a healthy 30- or 40- something, it is yet to be proven that it is a very low risk illness even for this age group.

Unless the long-term consequences are far more serious/prevalent than appear to be the case now, I don't think it will make a difference. Once again, it's too abstract of a risk. Are you going to notice if your heart weakened and your risk of death is doubled? Maybe, but how many people do the same thing to themselves everyday with lifestyle choices like diet, smoking, alcohol, drugs, and exercise?

Exactly. I've heard so many people saying, get used to it, nothing's going to be the same, etc. etc. etc. That might have been reasonable early on when less was known. Now, given what I've seen, if this were to keep going with fatality rates like what we're seeing and long term health effects that are largely unseen, I really don't see it creating a society where everyone wears a mask all the time or social distancing is the norm in the long term - 3, 5, or more years down the road. As Michael alluded to and a friend of mine often says "I smoke rat poison, do you think I'm worried about .....?"

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2397 on: June 02, 2020, 04:38:21 PM »
If picking crops involved a 40 hour week work week and paid $40k plus a two week vacation and a dental plan, plenty of Americans would sign up to do it. 

The issue is a failure to provide a living wage for an extremely difficult job.

And they'll never pay a livable wage as long as we import what amounts to slave labor.

The sad part is people spout nonsense about how we need illegal immigrants to pick our crops, but seem oblivious that labor costs are a minuscule portion of the total costs of produce/agriculture. Cost to the consumer would rise so little no one would even notice.

But somehow it "sounds good" to argue that we need to import low skilled labor. I don't know how, because it seems like if you put 5 seconds of thought into it you'd realize how terrible that sounds.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2398 on: June 02, 2020, 05:36:48 PM »
If picking crops involved a 40 hour week work week and paid $40k plus a two week vacation and a dental plan, plenty of Americans would sign up to do it. 

The issue is a failure to provide a living wage for an extremely difficult job.

And they'll never pay a livable wage as long as we import what amounts to slave labor.

The sad part is people spout nonsense about how we need illegal immigrants to pick our crops, but seem oblivious that labor costs are a minuscule portion of the total costs of produce/agriculture. Cost to the consumer would rise so little no one would even notice.

But somehow it "sounds good" to argue that we need to import low skilled labor. I don't know how, because it seems like if you put 5 seconds of thought into it you'd realize how terrible that sounds.

Here is a detailed study of labor costs for strawberries in California from UC Davis. Total labor costs are estimated to be approximately 40% of production costs between planting and harvesting.

https://coststudyfiles.ucdavis.edu/uploads/cs_public/e7/6d/e76dceb8-f0f5-4b60-bcb8-76b88d57e272/strawberrycentralcoast-2016-final2-5-1-2017.pdf

Quote
Labor. Labor rates are estimated at $21.70 per hour for machine operators and $16.10 for field labor, which includes overhead of 40 percent. The basic hourly wages are $15.50 for machine operators and $11.50 for field labor.  Harvest crews are often paid a base wage plus piecework rate, or straight piecework depending on the time of harvest.  In this study, harvest wages are calculated using the field labor rate.

That is the production cost, the cost in the store is significantly higher because you have to include the distribution, spoilage, and overhead and profit at each level. So the wholesale price the farmer receives for a 1lb container of strawberries is based on $1.25 per market data but it costs $3-4 in the store. Of that, the labor cost for the fieldworkers is about $0.50.

Based on the estimates in that study a 50-acre strawberry farm employing 35 workers will return about 4% net profit to the farmer, or about $125,000. However, if the wholesale price drops from $10.00 to $9.00 they're barely breaking even. That's a substantial investment with a relatively high risk for that kind of return.

Keep in mind that if the wholesale price goes from $1.25 to $1.50, the price in the store is going to increase more than $0.25. The profit and overhead and cost of spoiled product along the way will magnify that to probably $0.50-$1.00 to the consumer.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2399 on: June 02, 2020, 05:54:28 PM »
Off to the lab to create some food planting / harvesting robots. I will rule the world with my agrarian army

Muhhwahhh ha ha ha


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