Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 253647 times)

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1650 on: May 07, 2020, 01:46:35 AM »
I saw that, and also an Australian article saying up to 1,500. I think these guys are like Sutton saying there'd be 36,000 dead from the virus in our state - everyone likes to talk up the importance of their profession, and part of that is doing a big beat-up of possible casualties.

We see a 1% rise in suicides for each 1% rise in unemployment. So from 5 to 15% unemployment would mean 10% extra suicides, which is 300. To get 1,500 would require 55% unemployment. At 55% unemployment you don't have a suicide problem, you have a civil insurrection problem. Now, you could argue we currently have that rate of unemployment, masked by JobKeeper etc. But not really. It's 10 and moving up to 15%.

300 extra suicides is a horrible tragedy, but 300 is not 1,500.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1651 on: May 07, 2020, 02:05:13 AM »
I'm not convinced that the standard of 1% rise in suicides for a 1% rise in unemployment necessarily applies here: the big differences are 1) there is no individual blame/shame in losing a job because of the pandemic and 2) although we are all socially isolating someone without a job is not uniquely isolated from a society that is carrying on without them and 3) the ending of conspicuous consumption together with the large numbers of people in financial difficulty and in many cases a degree of additional governmental financial support means that someone unemployed because of the pandemic doesn't have quite the same experience of falling alone to the bottom of an unequal economic status.

So it seems to me that at least some of the psychological factors that link unemployment to suicide are mitigated.  But of course we won't know what the suicide rates from the pandemic are for a long time, and sorting out those caused by unemployment from those caused by other factors, including other pandemic factors, will be difficult. 

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1652 on: May 07, 2020, 02:54:10 AM »
I'm not convinced that the standard of 1% rise in suicides for a 1% rise in unemployment necessarily applies here: the big differences are 1) there is no individual blame/shame in losing a job because of the pandemic and 2) although we are all socially isolating someone without a job is not uniquely isolated from a society that is carrying on without them and 3) the ending of conspicuous consumption together with the large numbers of people in financial difficulty and in many cases a degree of additional governmental financial support means that someone unemployed because of the pandemic doesn't have quite the same experience of falling alone to the bottom of an unequal economic status.

So it seems to me that at least some of the psychological factors that link unemployment to suicide are mitigated.  But of course we won't know what the suicide rates from the pandemic are for a long time, and sorting out those caused by unemployment from those caused by other factors, including other pandemic factors, will be difficult.

I agree that any temporary unemployment that ceases in, say, August once we move back towards more normal functioning is unlikely to contribute to depression or mental health.

But not every one will be affected equally. The poor economic climate is going to lead to some people (like those in hospitality/retail) with long-term poor job prospects, even after most of the rest of us get back to work. The longer and the deeper the lockdown lasts, the more that's going to become entrenched. Also, recessions in the past have always taken much longer to get out of (jobs wise) than they took to get into, so if we have a long drawn out recovery, then that causes an issue - because it'll no longer be "we're all in this together" after 6-12 months.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1653 on: May 07, 2020, 03:52:25 AM »
Those are possible factors. But much of the unemployment won't be temporary; the JobKeeper programme and other things like the $250k government-backed loans (which everyone seems to have forgotten about, but presumably will be remembered later in the year) will mitigate business collapses, but won't entirely prevent them.

And as I've said, in previous recessions people still had friends, family and their community to fall back on for psychological support; but this is greatly reduced now.

Reducing the risks is,
- not being as broke as normally found with unemployment
- the job loss being very clearly not the person's own fault, and
- with half the population in the same boat, the traditional "dole bludger" social stigma is absent

increasing the risks is,
- social isolation, and
- the obviously long time it'll take to pull out of this

I believe it'll come out roughly even in Australia. In other countries with less effective social safety nets, or more corrupted business bailouts, or less economic impact, or less restrictions, things may be different.


Of note: the 100,000 tests they wanted have been achieved, and have discovered 7 or 8 asymptomatic cases here in Vic. The other new cases are mostly connected to a cluster where the govt knew of the first case April 2nd, but did nothing, and there are some others where the person presented with symptoms.


As I said more than a month ago, the supposed hordes of asymptomatic contagious people simply don't exist in Australia.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1654 on: May 07, 2020, 07:11:50 AM »
This article presents an interesting analysis and perspective on reopening businesses.

Is It Safer to Visit a Coffee Shop or a Gym? (NY Times)

I agree that gyms will probably not be safe for a long time, as the activities require increased respiration. For the same reason, the American Choral Directors Association is recommending no indoor choral rehearsals/concerts for the next year (and this is in line with an earlier article that stated that Germany may ban singing during religious services). Other businesses can likely begin to reopen with careful safety protocols and crowd limits.

boy_bye

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1655 on: May 07, 2020, 09:10:01 AM »
Quote
There have been public health programmes about obesity in the West for at least 50 years. If joint pain, hip replacements, poor sexual function, looking ugly, having lower limbs amputated, heart disease and stroke haven't motivated people to put down the pizza and beer and go for a walk, I don't think covid-19 will do it.

wow. in a forum FULL of shitty anti-fat sentiment, this is one of the shittiest things i've ever read.

Being obese is bad for your health. In other news, smoking and drinking don't help, either. In a world where we deny climate change, resource depletion and physiology, I realise that facts can hurt people's feelings, but there it is.

You can be obese and be a worthwhile person. You can be obese and sexy. You cannot be obese and healthy. Sorry.

are you a doctor?
have you seen my labs?
are you familiar with my medical history, or the medical histories of the millions of perfectly healthy people who happen to be classified as "obese"?

if not, then you're not able to say that with any authority at all. SORRY.

one more thing -- even "healthy" people dont stay that way forever, and i can say that with 100% authority.

Genuine question. You, of course, don't have to respond, but I'm curious as to which point you're taking on this.

There's certainly a correlation between obesity and bad health things (at least if I'm wrong about that, please feel free to show me something that disproves it). Are you saying that there's no causation between obesity and bad health outcomes? Are you saying that even if there's some correlation that its individualized enough that you're more concerned with specific medical metrics like cholesterol and the like? I don't think anyone (or almost no one) is saying that there aren't obese people that are healthier than non obese people - at most they seem to be saying that if you're obese it's a correlation risk factor akin to smoking, excessive drinking, etc. I may be wrong in this assertion of what is being presented.

my point is that none of y'all know what you are talking about with this ob*sity shit. i am so tired of people thinking they understand complex stuff that (1) theyve never experienced and (2) is not understood well even by the folks who research it. anti-fat bias and bullshit like y'all are spouting is more of a risk factor for human health than adipose tissue.

Ok...obviously you're ticked off about some of the comments, but I was asking a genuine question that you didn't really answer it except to accuse me of not knowing anything I'm talking about in regards to obesity. First, I have experienced it. I was in the morbidly obese category at one time in my life and am now still in the obese category given my weight and height. You comment that it's not well understood by those who research it. That's a pretty strong statement to make. Then you said that what I said was anti-fat bias and asserted that it's a greater risk factor for human health than obesity.

Again, feel free to not answer it. I just have noticed in several threads you posting comments about how no one else understands or everyone else is misrepresenting obesity, etc. I just figured, I'd take this opportunity to ask what you exactly mean. It's also not something I can quickly google, the response to a standard uninformed opinion, since in your text you comment that researchers don't seem to understand it.

Would you please like to elaborate as to any of my questions? Essentially, are you asserting there is no correlation between obesity and health problems? Or are you saying it's a correlation does not equal causation situation? Or are you saying that any health problems tied to obesity pale in comparison to the pyschological damage of fat shaming?

yes to 1 and 3. google "health at every size" if you want to learn more.

GardenerB

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1656 on: May 07, 2020, 12:37:07 PM »
“Essentially, are you asserting there is no correlation between obesity and health problems? Or are you saying it's a correlation does not equal causation situation? Or are you saying that any health problems tied to obesity pale in comparison to the pyschological damage of fat shaming?”

“yes to 1 and 3. google "health at every size" if you want to learn more.”

Excerpt from Health and Every Size:  "We’ve lost the war on obesity. Fighting fat hasn’t made the fat go away. And being thinner, even if we knew how to successfully accomplish it, will not necessarily make us healthier or happier."

I agree with you - fat-shaming is very bad and damaging, and comments could be more sensitive here about obesity.  Hopefully the original intent was only to highlight that obesity is a cause of and correlated to many other health issues and the same applies to making Covid worse.  I don’t have any comments on how fat-shaming is more damaging than the other health problems.

As for correlation/causation- that seems to be already clear that the evidence is showing quite conclusively that excess obesity/high BMI index, just like for almost all other illnesses, is an increased risk for Covid 19.

"In our dataset of 265 patients (58% male patients), we found a significant inverse correlation between age and BMI, in which younger individuals admitted to hospital were more likely to be obese (figure). There was no difference by sex (p=0·9). The median BMI was 29·3 kg/m2, with only 25% of individuals having a BMI of less than 26 kg/m2, and 25% exceeding a BMI of 34·7 kg/m2."

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31024-2/fulltext
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid19-obesity-risk-factor
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/groups-at-higher-risk.html#severe-obesity

It is an important thing to study and highlight so as to prepare for areas that have higher obesity rates.


ender

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1657 on: May 07, 2020, 12:56:53 PM »
So, uh, can we maybe take this whole convo to a different thread and keep this on the topic of covid?

GardenerB

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1658 on: May 07, 2020, 01:38:34 PM »
“So, uh, can we maybe take this whole convo to a different thread and keep this on the topic of covid?”

Yes, I would like to too!

I assume most analyses are showing similar results ranging from the New York tests showing >20% infections, to various studies like the German one for the town of Gangelt (15% actually infected while official tests first showed only 3%).  More dense places had/have many times more infections than reported by tests, and IFR varies from 0.1 to 1% - the final IFR won’t be known for a year or so.

This virus will just enter the list of other endemic coronavirus and be with us for years – no such hope waiting for a vaccine in short term:

https://unherd.com/thepost/german-virologist-finds-covid-fatality-rate-of-0-24-0-36/

Study doc:

https://www.ukbonn.de/C12582D3002FD21D/vwLookupDownloads/Streeck_et_al_Infection_fatality_rate_of_SARS_CoV_2_infection2.pdf/$FILE/Streeck_et_al_Infection_fatality_rate_of_SARS_CoV_2_infection2.pdf

Our jurisdiction is on the low end, we are projected to end up with 40 deaths/million people, have low density, never had full lockdown.  Based on CEBM and IHME modeling (which most areas are using), our actual level of infection is approximately 2%.  The models seem to track quite closely, varying based on population density, lock down measures, etc. – they work backwards from IFR to yield estimated infection levels.

Mid-May we are opening elective surgeries, dentistry, chiro, parks, more retail, voluntary in-person schools for K-12, etc.  Then more in late may.  Fully expect cases and deaths to continue as expected, then a second and subsequent waves later.

The US South-east I think will be a big problem for reopening.

boy_bye

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1659 on: May 07, 2020, 01:46:52 PM »
It is an important thing to study and highlight so as to prepare for areas that have higher obesity rates.

i shared a link from wired earlier in the thread that addresses the studies you mention. i dont have much more to say in this forum.

nereo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1660 on: May 07, 2020, 02:17:10 PM »
@GardenerB - using the quote function allows others to Understand who you are responding to and it allows those that you have quoted an easier way to respond.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1661 on: May 07, 2020, 05:23:53 PM »
Some people would like to believe that being obese is not bad for their health. They deny medicine.

Some would like to believe that we can take the energy which took 300 million years to accumulate and burn through it in 300 years, and there will be no consequence to this. They deny physics.

Others would like to believe that if they just click their ruby slippers together and say, "there's no place like the other gender" they can change every cell in their bodies. They deny physiology.

Others still would like to believe that by the right combination of strongly-diluted herbs they can simply wish away a deadly disease, and don't need a vaccination. They deny medicine.

And there are, of course, those who would like to believe that this particular deadly disease was made in a lab - because if it was made in a lab, probably the cure was made in a lab, too, and so we don't have to actually do anything, just berate the makers until they give us a cure. They deny biology.

Lastly, there are those who think that locking people up in their homes for months on end is without consequence. They deny psychology.

Many of us struggle with reality, and prefer our fantasy versions. And there's always a Lysenko to tell us what we want to hear. But reality will eventually kick us in the arse, unfortunately.
« Last Edit: May 07, 2020, 05:49:03 PM by Kyle Schuant »

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1662 on: May 07, 2020, 05:34:08 PM »
I stopped reading when I hit the transphobic load of horse shit

dandarc

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1663 on: May 07, 2020, 05:38:20 PM »

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1664 on: May 07, 2020, 05:45:10 PM »
That's the great thing about the modern world - everyone has some science they'd like to deny. Our society has many ideologies, and so our society has many Lysenkos.

Kris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1665 on: May 07, 2020, 06:08:17 PM »
That's the great thing about the modern world - everyone has some science they'd like to deny. Our society has many ideologies, and so our society has many Lysenkos.

Being transphobic isn’t being science-affirming.

mm1970

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1666 on: May 07, 2020, 06:42:53 PM »
Sex does not equal gender.

There are not just two of either.  It's a spectrum.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1667 on: May 07, 2020, 08:45:32 PM »
This is the first stage of Australian thawing, which will be up to individual states to implement but which is hoped to be filtered in over the next four weeks:

Quote
Gatherings up to 10 people, and five guests in your own home.
Children back in classrooms and in play grounds in their communities.
Recreational activities such as golf, lap swimming and boot camps
Retail and small cafes and restaurants reopening.
Interstate recreational travel, starting again.
An easing of restrictions for funerals with up to 30 attendees, outdoors, and 10 at weddings.

Delighted at this, particularly:
- Schools - puts less pressure on working parents. Noting that most children also learn better in a structured environment. Also noting that children are low risk both for illness and transmission.
- Recreational activities - there is certainly no reason why an activity like golf, or recreational driving, should be banned. We have fewer than 1 person per 500,000 inhabitants in hospital for covid-19 so it's not like our hospital systems can't cope with cars being on the road and potentially having accidents.
- Retail, cafes, restaurants: good for business, also stops economic haemorrhaging

So pleased the Australian government is taking a proactive stance on this and getting our society back towards business as usual.

Our community transmission figures are very low and those who are particularly worried about it still have the option of locking themselves down, like the rest of us were asked to do for 8 weeks.

availablelight

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1668 on: May 08, 2020, 07:54:22 AM »
Others would like to believe that if they just click their ruby slippers together and say, "there's no place like the other gender" they can change every cell in their bodies. They deny physiology.

Is that what any (reasonable) transgender person believes, or is that a strawman caricature?

Many of us struggle with reality, and prefer our fantasy versions. And there's always a Lysenko to tell us what we want to hear. But reality will eventually kick us in the arse, unfortunately.

Well, that much is true.

Actually, I generally agree with the rest of your post -- most of it is even on topic.

KBecks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1669 on: May 08, 2020, 08:14:27 AM »
What I love about some of these conversations are the interesting tangents, like reading about this Lysenko person:
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/12/trofim-lysenko-soviet-union-russia/548786/

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1670 on: May 08, 2020, 10:14:53 AM »
Others would like to believe that if they just click their ruby slippers together and say, "there's no place like the other gender" they can change every cell in their bodies. They deny physiology.

Is that what any (reasonable) transgender person believes, or is that a strawman caricature?

None that I know. Most just want to be treated with dignity and have the simplest and easiest of accommodations made for them.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1671 on: May 08, 2020, 10:18:49 AM »
Others would like to believe that if they just click their ruby slippers together and say, "there's no place like the other gender" they can change every cell in their bodies. They deny physiology.

Is that what any (reasonable) transgender person believes, or is that a strawman caricature?

None that I know. Most just want to be treated with dignity and have the simplest and easiest of accommodations made for them.

It seems like a transphobic strawman caricature. I suspect that transgender people are better educated than most on the difference between biological sex and sociological gender.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2020, 11:06:29 AM by OtherJen »

Kris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1672 on: May 08, 2020, 10:51:22 AM »
Others would like to believe that if they just click their ruby slippers together and say, "there's no place like the other gender" they can change every cell in their bodies. They deny physiology.

Is that what any (reasonable) transgender person believes, or is that a strawman caricature?

None that I know. Most just want to be treated with dignity and have the simplest and easiest of accommodations made for them.

It seems like a transphobic strawman caricature. I suspect that transgender people are better educated than most on the difference between biological sex and sociological gender.

Fixed (or rather, clarified) that for you.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1673 on: May 08, 2020, 11:05:35 AM »
I've occasionally seen "news" stories about trans women doing shit like, suing a gynecologist for not treating them. But these stories are usually from bad sources and shared by old uncles on Facebook. And even if these stories were true, these are obviously lawsuit trolls and outliers. Not representative of the group as a whole.

I'm a white guy. I sure wouldn't like if everyone treated my like I thought going to Las Vegas and shooting up 600 people was a good idea. Treating people as individuals is good.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1674 on: May 08, 2020, 11:05:59 AM »
Others would like to believe that if they just click their ruby slippers together and say, "there's no place like the other gender" they can change every cell in their bodies. They deny physiology.

Is that what any (reasonable) transgender person believes, or is that a strawman caricature?

None that I know. Most just want to be treated with dignity and have the simplest and easiest of accommodations made for them.

It seems like a transphobic strawman caricature. I suspect that transgender people are better educated than most on the difference between biological sex and sociological gender.

Fixed (or rather, clarified) that for you.

Thank you! Will update the original post.

LWYRUP

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1675 on: May 08, 2020, 11:42:51 AM »
So, uh, can we maybe take this whole convo to a different thread and keep this on the topic of covid?

Returning to the original subject -- Ender, how long do you think we can wait while flattening the curve? 

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1676 on: May 08, 2020, 12:26:16 PM »
This is the first stage of Australian thawing, which will be up to individual states to implement but which is hoped to be filtered in over the next four weeks:

Quote
Gatherings up to 10 people, and five guests in your own home.
Children back in classrooms and in play grounds in their communities.
Recreational activities such as golf, lap swimming and boot camps
Retail and small cafes and restaurants reopening.
Interstate recreational travel, starting again.
An easing of restrictions for funerals with up to 30 attendees, outdoors, and 10 at weddings.

Delighted at this, particularly:
- Schools - puts less pressure on working parents. Noting that most children also learn better in a structured environment. Also noting that children are low risk both for illness and transmission.

I wonder if you also have a different strain in Australia. This phenomenon popped up in a COVID-19 paper that I reviewed recently, then a NY Times article last week, and now my local news: New child illness Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome believed to be connected to COVID-19

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1677 on: May 08, 2020, 01:08:51 PM »
I’ve a friend in NYC with a toddler hospitalized with that. Would never have know he had it otherwise.

MrThatsDifferent

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1678 on: May 08, 2020, 01:44:27 PM »
This is the first stage of Australian thawing, which will be up to individual states to implement but which is hoped to be filtered in over the next four weeks:

Quote
Gatherings up to 10 people, and five guests in your own home.
Children back in classrooms and in play grounds in their communities.
Recreational activities such as golf, lap swimming and boot camps
Retail and small cafes and restaurants reopening.
Interstate recreational travel, starting again.
An easing of restrictions for funerals with up to 30 attendees, outdoors, and 10 at weddings.

Delighted at this, particularly:
- Schools - puts less pressure on working parents. Noting that most children also learn better in a structured environment. Also noting that children are low risk both for illness and transmission.

I wonder if you also have a different strain in Australia. This phenomenon popped up in a COVID-19 paper that I reviewed recently, then a NY Times article last week, and now my local news: New child illness Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome believed to be connected to COVID-19

I’m not aware of Australia having a different strain of Covid 19. We just took it seriously and didn’t let it rage out of control. We’d have even less cases if the insane decision hadn’t been made to let people from an infected cruise disembark in Sydney. Australia and New Zealand got on this, everyone did their part and the countries looked after their people. Was everything perfect? No. Of course not. But both countries won and can return to normality quicker. As long as we control the borders, test and quarantine new arrivals, we’ve got a great chance of ensuring this doesn’t impact us further, beyond the global impacts, which will reverberate for years. America, you’ve done this as wrong as you could and your deaths will continue to skyrocket, while your pro-life politicians continue to rationalize all the dead. Good job!

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1679 on: May 08, 2020, 01:48:32 PM »
This is the first stage of Australian thawing, which will be up to individual states to implement but which is hoped to be filtered in over the next four weeks:

Quote
Gatherings up to 10 people, and five guests in your own home.
Children back in classrooms and in play grounds in their communities.
Recreational activities such as golf, lap swimming and boot camps
Retail and small cafes and restaurants reopening.
Interstate recreational travel, starting again.
An easing of restrictions for funerals with up to 30 attendees, outdoors, and 10 at weddings.

Delighted at this, particularly:
- Schools - puts less pressure on working parents. Noting that most children also learn better in a structured environment. Also noting that children are low risk both for illness and transmission.

I wonder if you also have a different strain in Australia. This phenomenon popped up in a COVID-19 paper that I reviewed recently, then a NY Times article last week, and now my local news: New child illness Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome believed to be connected to COVID-19

I’m not aware of Australia having a different strain of Covid 19. We just took it seriously and didn’t let it rage out of control. We’d have even less cases if the insane decision hadn’t been made to let people from an infected cruise disembark in Sydney. Australia and New Zealand got on this, everyone did their part and the countries looked after their people. Was everything perfect? No. Of course not. But both countries won and can return to normality quicker. As long as we control the borders, test and quarantine new arrivals, we’ve got a great chance of ensuring this doesn’t impact us further, beyond the global impacts, which will reverberate for years. America, you’ve done this as wrong as you could and your deaths will continue to skyrocket, while your pro-life politicians continue to rationalize all the dead. Good job!

It was a fair question/comment, given that children haven't been affected at all in Australia. We're well aware of our federal goverment's fuckup, thank you.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1680 on: May 08, 2020, 02:50:31 PM »
Is there a way to mute all Australians?

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1681 on: May 08, 2020, 02:56:42 PM »
Given the fact that Australia is entirely peopled by criminals and criminals are used to having people not trust them, I think we know not to get involved in a land war in Asia.

Davnasty

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1682 on: May 08, 2020, 03:02:14 PM »
Is there a way to mute all Australians?

Ideally we'd have another thread. The situation in the US vs Australia is so different they don't belong in the same conversation. Way too many incorrect assumptions and talking past one another.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1683 on: May 08, 2020, 03:08:02 PM »
Is there a way to mute all Australians?

Ideally we'd have another thread. The situation in the US vs Australia is so different they don't belong in the same conversation. Way too many incorrect assumptions and talking past one another.

Yeah. For what it's worth I was mostly kidding. And I understand that it must be frustrating when the English speaking internet revolves so heavily around the USA.

Padonak

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1684 on: May 08, 2020, 05:27:05 PM »
Is there a way to mute all Australians?

Australians are doing the night shift and keeping this topic alive. It's hard enough for them to walk upside down so let's give them a break.

Gremlin

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1685 on: May 08, 2020, 05:46:57 PM »

I’m not aware of Australia having a different strain of Covid 19. We just took it seriously and didn’t let it rage out of control. We’d have even less cases if the insane decision hadn’t been made to let people from an infected cruise disembark in Sydney. Australia and New Zealand got on this, everyone did their part and the countries looked after their people. Was everything perfect? No. Of course not. But both countries won and can return to normality quicker. As long as we control the borders, test and quarantine new arrivals, we’ve got a great chance of ensuring this doesn’t impact us further, beyond the global impacts, which will reverberate for years. America, you’ve done this as wrong as you could and your deaths will continue to skyrocket, while your pro-life politicians continue to rationalize all the dead. Good job!

As an Aussie, I think that this is more than a little arrogant.  Yes, I think collectively our Govts have done well, but it fails to recognise that our biggest advantage is that we live on an island and we could genuinely close our borders with relative ease.  As a nation, we have roughly 15 entry points.  Compare that to the US or mainland Europe where there are literally hundreds or even thousands of entry points into a country.  We also have a very strong history in biosecurity at our borders in order to protect our unique flora and fauna.  Extending that to protect our citizens was a much smaller step for us than for many other nations, the Ruby Princess debacle notwithstanding.  I don't think it's a coincidence that the countries who have been able to control the spread best to date are all islands (plus South Korea, which is a de facto island in respect of its only land border being unpassable).

Ironically, we also had a substantial reduction in international travellers just as the outbreak spread across the rest of the globe because large swathes of the countryside, including many prominent tourist destinations, were on fire or blanketed in smoke.  It's quite possible that this disaster, as catastrophic as it was, played a part in saving Australia from something much worse.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1686 on: May 08, 2020, 05:52:45 PM »
I'm so glad that countries around the globe are easing out of lockdown.

There is a human and economic cost to either approach and they have to be balanced.

Europe seems to be getting the balance right. America probably is being a bit nonchalant and we here in Australia have been overly stringent (although that is quickly changing. Some of the less affected states like Queensland have gone down to stage 1 restrictions as of today, marking a vast change within a week).

I still favour Sweden's approach. Yes, people have died, but its economy has stayed stable. Australia's approach has the advantage of saving lives upfront, but who knows how much of a grave toll our economic recession will take over the next 2-3 years? And for the latter, we're talking about lives of prime age being curtailed or destroyed. But then, I speak from a utilitarian and not a political perspective. For politics' sake, you're better to either go hard and prioritise "saving grandma" (the Australian approach) or to pretend that nothing's wrong and prioritise the economy (the American approach).

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1687 on: May 08, 2020, 05:58:30 PM »
Sweden's approach is causing them to have much higher infection and death numbers than their neighbors.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1688 on: May 08, 2020, 06:09:54 PM »
But less economic damage.

In a few years when all is done and dusted and people can look at this in the cold light of rationality (rather than through the lens of fear), we can assess the final death toll and economic toll, do some QALY calculations and see which approach was the preferable one.

nereo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1689 on: May 08, 2020, 06:23:40 PM »
Is there a way to mute all Australians?

Ideally we'd have another thread. The situation in the US vs Australia is so different they don't belong in the same conversation. Way too many incorrect assumptions and talking past one another.

“Talking past one another” is too euphemistically kind.  It’s more like screaming directly at each other.


Yeah. For what it's worth I was mostly kidding. And I understand that it must be frustrating when the English speaking internet revolves so heavily around the USA.
I mean... yes this forum revolves heavily around the USA, as does the English speaking internet in general.  But one has to at least acknowledge that an overwhelming majority of people for whom English is their primary language live in N. America and in the USA in particular.  I mean... there are 330 million people in the US. (Though something closer to 250MM are primarily English speakers)  The UK + Ireland + Australia +  New Zealand = ~95MM English speakers.   This forum was started by a Canadian who immigrated to the US and kind of radiated outwards from Colorado.

Given the fact that Australia is entirely peopled by criminals and criminals are used to having people not trust them, I think we know not to get involved in a land war in Asia.
Inconceivable!

Gremlin

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1690 on: May 08, 2020, 06:33:41 PM »
Some of the less affected states like Queensland have gone down to stage 1 restrictions as of today, marking a vast change within a week).
Not sure where you are getting your info on this, but from the perspective of someone actually living in Queensland I can assure you that's categorically not true.

Attached is the Qld Govt's roadmap for easing restrictions.  Nothing today is different to yesterday.  What's been released is a very sensible plan IMO.  This includes a very SLOW reopening of businesses with a high propensity to cause extensive transmission, eg starting 15th of May we will have restaurants/cafes reopen but with a maximum patronage of 10 customers at once.  There are checkpoints along the way and if numbers get out of control they will said that they will amend the timetable or step back as required.  There is a minimum of nine weeks to step out to the "new normal".  There is no plan to "go back to how it was before".  That simply doesn't exist.

mm1970

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1691 on: May 08, 2020, 06:35:43 PM »
Sweden's approach is causing them to have much higher infection and death numbers than their neighbors.
I really just don't understand the people who point out Sweden and don't care that the death rate is over 12%?

12%

If 12% of my company's employees died, that would be 8 people.

If 12% of the people over 60 at my company died, that would still be 1 or 2 people.

People that I KNOW and work with DAILY.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1692 on: May 08, 2020, 06:39:46 PM »
Exactly, @mm1970. I don't think there will ever be cold light of rationality when you have this many deaths.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1693 on: May 08, 2020, 06:53:27 PM »
Some of the less affected states like Queensland have gone down to stage 1 restrictions as of today, marking a vast change within a week).
Not sure where you are getting your info on this, but from the perspective of someone actually living in Queensland I can assure you that's categorically not true.

Attached is the Qld Govt's roadmap for easing restrictions.  Nothing today is different to yesterday.  What's been released is a very sensible plan IMO.  This includes a very SLOW reopening of businesses with a high propensity to cause extensive transmission, eg starting 15th of May we will have restaurants/cafes reopen but with a maximum patronage of 10 customers at once.  There are checkpoints along the way and if numbers get out of control they will said that they will amend the timetable or step back as required.  There is a minimum of nine weeks to step out to the "new normal".  There is no plan to "go back to how it was before".  That simply doesn't exist.

This is the info I'm relying on:

Quote
Up to five people from the same home will be allowed to visit another household from tomorrow.

From next Saturday, personal training sessions, retail shopping, weddings with up to 10 people, and funerals of up to 20 inside or 30 outside, will be allowed.

Restaurants, libraries, pools and beauty salons can also reopen. Open home inspections and auctions will be allowed to go ahead.

Bars and gaming facilities will remain closed, but up to 10 people at a time will be allowed to dine in at restaurants, pubs, licensed clubs, RSL clubs and hotels.

Recreational travel for day trips up to 150km from home will be allowed.

In the outback, where there have been no Covid-19 cases, locals can travel up to 500km from home, and up to 20 will be allowed to dine in at outback pubs and cafes.

From The Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/may/09/coronavirus-australia-live-news-restrictions-stage-one-scott-morrison-nsw-victoria-queensland-lockdown-economy-latest-updates


Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1694 on: May 08, 2020, 06:56:46 PM »
Sweden's approach is causing them to have much higher infection and death numbers than their neighbors.
I really just don't understand the people who point out Sweden and don't care that the death rate is over 12%?

12%

If 12% of my company's employees died, that would be 8 people.

If 12% of the people over 60 at my company died, that would still be 1 or 2 people.

People that I KNOW and work with DAILY.

It's pretty disingenuous to talk about a death rate of 12%. The death rate seems high because Sweden's done less tests. Their view is to just let the virus spread. So they have only recorded 25,000 cases of the virus but I'm sure there are hundreds of thousands more.

The Swedish per capita death rate is 3 per 10,000 which gives a lot more perspective.

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1695 on: May 08, 2020, 07:06:37 PM »
I mean... yes this forum revolves heavily around the USA, as does the English speaking internet in general.  But one has to at least acknowledge that an overwhelming majority of people for whom English is their primary language live in N. America and in the USA in particular.  I mean... there are 330 million people in the US. (Though something closer to 250MM are primarily English speakers)  The UK + Ireland + Australia +  New Zealand = ~95MM English speakers.   This forum was started by a Canadian who immigrated to the US and kind of radiated outwards from Colorado.

Just being picky, but you left out about 32.5 million English speaking Canadians.

Paper Chaser

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1696 on: May 08, 2020, 08:04:06 PM »
Seems like we've found the point where people are fed up with lockdowns:

https://mti.umd.edu/news/story/quarantines-increasingly-ignored-as-some-states-partially-reopen

Some states have seen mobility increase as much as 30% recently, even before lifting their lockdowns.

nereo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1697 on: May 08, 2020, 08:06:12 PM »
I mean... yes this forum revolves heavily around the USA, as does the English speaking internet in general.  But one has to at least acknowledge that an overwhelming majority of people for whom English is their primary language live in N. America and in the USA in particular.  I mean... there are 330 million people in the US. (Though something closer to 250MM are primarily English speakers)  The UK + Ireland + Australia +  New Zealand = ~95MM English speakers.   This forum was started by a Canadian who immigrated to the US and kind of radiated outwards from Colorado.

Just being picky, but you left out about 32.5 million English speaking Canadians.

That was the “N. America and in the USA in particular” bit...
The majority of native English speakers live in N. America... predominately the US, but also Canada and the Caribbean

RetiredAt63

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1698 on: May 08, 2020, 08:12:03 PM »
I mean... yes this forum revolves heavily around the USA, as does the English speaking internet in general.  But one has to at least acknowledge that an overwhelming majority of people for whom English is their primary language live in N. America and in the USA in particular.  I mean... there are 330 million people in the US. (Though something closer to 250MM are primarily English speakers)  The UK + Ireland + Australia +  New Zealand = ~95MM English speakers.   This forum was started by a Canadian who immigrated to the US and kind of radiated outwards from Colorado.

Just being picky, but you left out about 32.5 million English speaking Canadians.

That was the “N. America and in the USA in particular” bit...
The majority of native English speakers live in N. America... predominately the US, but also Canada and the Caribbean

Ok, but really, lumping Canadians with Americans is like lumping Aussies with Kiwis. 

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1699 on: May 08, 2020, 08:29:05 PM »
Seems like we've found the point where people are fed up with lockdowns:

https://mti.umd.edu/news/story/quarantines-increasingly-ignored-as-some-states-partially-reopen

Some states have seen mobility increase as much as 30% recently, even before lifting their lockdowns.

Like I've been maintaining, it's difficult to ask 100% of the population to take economically onerous measures to protect 20% of the population. They'll do it for a couple of months but not much longer. Particularly when the worst of the infection period is over.

To give you some context, the average American has a 1 in 8,303 chance of dying in a motor vehicle accident per year. That's a 0.012% chance per year. Over a 40 year driving career, that's 0.5%. Actually the lifetime risk would be higher than that because pedestrians, etc also die in MVAs.

Anyway...

According to this link
https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid#case-fatality-rate-of-covid-19-by-age

The age 30-39 death rate from covid is 0.11-0.3%

Although I suspect that death rate is overinflated because the countries doing more testing have lower death rates. But anyway, even taking that range as the death rate, your typical person in their 30s has a significantly higher lifetime risk of dying from an MVA than the virus. But we don't ban driving!