Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 253715 times)

RetiredAt63

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 13951
  • Location: Eastern Ontario, Canada
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3850 on: September 11, 2020, 03:49:04 PM »
Yeah, the invisible kids not getting educated or help when they need it at school are hard to put up against "but here's a person who died!" arguments.

The fact that a teacher dying is newsworthy is IMO a good sign. That means it's really, really rare.

-W

Your premise is invalid. 

Since school has been out for months, only recently started again in some places, teachers were at no more risk than anyone else.  Now that they are back in the classroom we will start to see if they are at added risk.

I know that teaching biology labs put me in close contact with students.  I am really glad to be retired.

Invalid?

This is the problem with covid reporting. If we had a national news article in a normal year every single time a teacher died, would you feel the same? It likely happens every single day. As stated there are millions of teachers in the country.

My point was that once school was out last spring, teachers became part of the general population.  "Teacher dies" is no more informative than for any other job.  It is not informative.  Now that teachers are back, interacting with students and staff, they are in a potentially high risk group.  If in a month teacher infections are above their local infection rates, that gives us information.  If they still are at background rates of infection, that gives us information.  If a teacher catches it outside of school and then spreads it inside the school (remember not everyone is symptomatic, but asymptomatic people can still shed the virus) that gives us information.  But right now?  Drawing conclusions from inadequate information is invalid.

Not saying we shouldn't open up schools.  Ontario is, with lots of concerns being expressed about the arrangements.  Our infection rates aren't high but they aren't super low either.  And cold weather is coming, which will certainly affect how much time we spend outside.  Older buildings may present ventilation issues.  There are a lot of variables whose effects we don't know.

I have the impression most school boards dropped the ball on this.    They've known it was coming since March after all.    Instead of figuring out their budget and making decisions about the tradeoffs they spent much time complaining.    Any teachers here who can comment?

I've read elsewhere that Toronto's largest school board had a good plan and Ford vetoed it.  The one he pushed is more expensive and riskier, according to commenters.  So the planning was done. 

I don't have kids in the school system so everything I hear is second hand.

the_fixer

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 906
  • Location: Colorado
  • mind on my money money on my mind
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3851 on: September 11, 2020, 04:55:12 PM »
Indeed we will. We have almost a month here so far, with zero problems. Hoping that continues to be the case.

Most of our teachers are local members of the community and a ton of them are parents, who I see at soccer games and the park and stuff regularly. So they've been exposed all summer, really, just like the rest of us who have kids.

-W
We have several schools around here that are having to shutdown and quarantine due to outbreaks and schools have only been back for 2 - 3 weeks.

I think it is going to be hard on students to switch between virtual and in person and hard on parents / employers to adjust their work schedules at a moments notice to accommodate the switch VS planning ahead in advance. Tough situation all around.

We were worried about my FIL since he is 74 and drives a school buss and decided to keep driving this year so far they have only had 1 or 2 students per day since no one is riding the buss this year.

Kind of crazy, 2 adults 1 driver, 1 monitor and 1 or 2 students in a big full size school buss.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Bloop Bloop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2140
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3852 on: September 11, 2020, 07:39:07 PM »
According to our premier:

Quote
There has been a 26.7% increase in young people presenting to emergency departments for intentional self-harm and suicidal ideation over the past few weeks,” Andrews said.

Last month, on 9 August, there was a 33% increase.

How many young people have to suffer when it would be simpler to just lock down health care workers, aged care residents and their families?

Kyle Schuant

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1297
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3853 on: September 11, 2020, 11:42:34 PM »
I've been talking to doctors I know about this, working in wards with covid patients.

You don't need to lock down healthcare workers. It's spreading in them because of dispersal of covid+ patients, and poor PPE.

Covid+ patients mostly just go to the nearest hospital. Historically this was so their families could visit them, but that's not allowed for covid+ patients so is irrelevant here. Now, if you have (say) 10 patients who go to 1 hospital, then they can only infect the 10 staff there looking after them. But if those 10 patients go to 10 different hospitals, they can infect 10x 10 staff, or 100 people.

As for PPE, the issue is that ordinary old masks and face shields only defend against droplets - big gobs of spit and snot. But would you want to only wear that if there were poison gas around? They don't defend against aerosols, tiny amounts floating around in the air. Now, aerosols disperse very quickly in the open air, which is why your shitty disposable mask is good enough for walking in the park, it'll protect you from someone gobbing on you, and the aerosols are a non-issue. But if you're in an enclosed space with airconditioning recycling the air, then you're in trouble.

So you need PPE which protects you from aerosols, and which fits. They do a "fit test" where they put it on you and spray something stinky in the air, if you can smell it then it doesn't fit yet. Most equipment is designed to accommodate the average doctor, who is a white male. It doesn't fit many asians and women. In the fit test they adjust it.

Less than 10% of Victorian hospitals have had better gear and fit testing done.

That's why we won't achieve the numbers they want in the roadmaps. 2/3 of new infections are healthcare workers and their households, so we'll keep simmering along with a low level of cases for a long time yet. On the plus side, they're mostly young and healthy (or they wouldn't be working) so very few of them will die.

Home Stretch

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 158
  • Age: 33
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3854 on: September 12, 2020, 07:35:22 AM »
According to our premier:

Quote
There has been a 26.7% increase in young people presenting to emergency departments for intentional self-harm and suicidal ideation over the past few weeks,” Andrews said.

Last month, on 9 August, there was a 33% increase.

How many young people have to suffer when it would be simpler to just lock down health care workers, aged care residents and their families?

Apparently, all of them. It's insane/asinine in the US too. We re-opened colleges and enacted rigorous testing, which OF COURSE immediately revealed a concerning number of cases. However, last time I checked a few days ago, there were 25,000 cases and zero deaths among students. But we sent them all home anyway. So now not only are they not getting a good education, but they have been sent home where it's far more likely they'll cause the exact problem we're supposedly trying to prevent - infecting the old people.

Gin1984

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4851
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3855 on: September 12, 2020, 02:30:38 PM »
We've had daycares running for something like 4-5 months now. No outbreaks.

Look, it just ended up not being a big deal for kids. There's no evidence whatsoever to say otherwise. We should be acting accordingly.

-W
That is completely untrue.  Multiple outbreaks have occurred, in multiple states.

dandarc

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4034
  • Age: 37
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3856 on: September 12, 2020, 02:34:30 PM »
We've had daycares running for something like 4-5 months now. No outbreaks.

Look, it just ended up not being a big deal for kids. There's no evidence whatsoever to say otherwise. We should be acting accordingly.

-W
That is completely untrue.  Multiple outbreaks have occurred, in multiple states.
Yeah - they had to close the daycare at one of the hospitals here.

Gin1984

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4851
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3857 on: September 12, 2020, 02:38:18 PM »
Isn't the bigger risk that the virus is transmitted to/between teachers, who may be in more vulnerable age groups/states of health?

I mean there is certainly some risk that it could be transferred from student to teacher and yes they would be at a higher risk being older. Still hard to tell since so many schools have been closed but there has been very very little evidence of student to teacher transfer.

As far as between teachers from what I've heard from friends teaching private school it sounds like Teachers are wearing mask at all times but especially in hallways, to bathrooms etc. Eating lunch in their rooms with staff lounges closed, staff meetings all virtual, etc. so pretty minimal adult to adult contact.

----------

Also "essential" workers have been taking risk the whole time. I'm in construction sharing space with multiple contractors, homeowners, inspectors, I use a port a john for a bathroom shared by 50+ men for god sakes. My neighbor is a UPS driver and he's been working 60-70 hours a week delivering to hundreds of homes/business a week and spending 2-3 hours a day in a packed warehouse full of people with little ventilation. My cousin is an EMT running tons of calls from one of MD's corona hotspots, another friend is a mechanic working in a shop with 20 other mechanics, etc. etc.

To me I'm feeling more and more like in person teaching (especially for elementary) should be considered "essential". Certainly more important then the decks and kitchens and stuff I build for people.

Isn't the bigger risk that the virus is transmitted to/between teachers, who may be in more vulnerable age groups/states of health?

And taken home to everyone.

I understand that you're very concerned about Covid, and that's good. I'm assuming you don't have kids, though, because they are already (and have been for months) out at playgrounds and in each other's homes and such, all over the US. The horse is long out of the barn on kids for all but the most wealthy/paranoid/antisocial families who are still quarantining.

Adults, especially teachers, should be smart about it. We sent my elderly MIL to live elsewhere this school year. But the cost of not opening schools is far out of proportion to the risk at this point.

-W

Anecdotal evidence of course but in our larger social group of friend/families I only know of 2 out of maybe 50-60 who are still quarinting pretty strict. One has a really high risk special needs child and the other I guess is just really nervous about it. Everyone else is doing quite a bit of socializing.
And in my peer group, mostly scientists, we are still quarantining our children.  I work, using PPE and social distancing as well as being tested.  My family also gets tested and we still quarantine.  We go out for what we need and that is it. Both my children know how to wear masks, and also most importantly, how to take them off safely, my oldest understands social distancing.  Yes, it sucks and she spends a lot of time on FaceTime with friends while she is playing but we do have to look at what is happening in college when people are not being safe.  I do think there are ways to bring students back to school safely but it would take a lot more money than any of the districts have and it still would be require some of it to be virtual.  But the only that actually works is if the federal government did something about it.  We still don't have enough PPE for our hospital workers, we don't have enough testing, we are not doing waste water testing or any sort of real tracking.  Those things need to happen.

waltworks

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4277
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3858 on: September 12, 2020, 03:01:27 PM »
We've had daycares running for something like 4-5 months now. No outbreaks.

Look, it just ended up not being a big deal for kids. There's no evidence whatsoever to say otherwise. We should be acting accordingly.

-W
That is completely untrue.  Multiple outbreaks have occurred, in multiple states.

I was speaking of my local/personal knowledge of my area. But indeed, hundreds of thousands of daycares have been open this whole time. There have been a handful of outbreaks. Daycare is good.

-W

Wolfpack Mustachian

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 750
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3859 on: September 12, 2020, 04:03:16 PM »
I'm genuinely curious. Obviously many people here are in disagreement with waltworks about schools/daycares. To anyone who is more on the side of things that we should be closer to lockdowns in the US (or anyone who wants to answer, really), if you could snap your fingers and enact any regulation possible, what laws would you make, and how would you enforce it? I'm curious if people are just frustrated in general that Americans aren't doing sensible things like wear masks even when they're "required" to do so or not congregate together in large unmasked nonfamily groups, or if they are frustrated with the government in general for not passing some law restricting things or not enforcing their existing restrictions.

Gin1984

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4851
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3860 on: September 12, 2020, 05:22:05 PM »
I'm genuinely curious. Obviously many people here are in disagreement with waltworks about schools/daycares. To anyone who is more on the side of things that we should be closer to lockdowns in the US (or anyone who wants to answer, really), if you could snap your fingers and enact any regulation possible, what laws would you make, and how would you enforce it? I'm curious if people are just frustrated in general that Americans aren't doing sensible things like wear masks even when they're "required" to do so or not congregate together in large unmasked nonfamily groups, or if they are frustrated with the government in general for not passing some law restricting things or not enforcing their existing restrictions.
It is bit of a combination, we all should be isolating where we can and not being in large groups but also, we should have had better testing and contact tracing.  We also needed federal support to build enough PPE.  And yes, those should be enforced legally.  You should be ticketed if you are off private property and not wearing a mask or if you are in a large gathering.  Also, there should have been funding to set up both virtual schooling for those who want it/need it and to allow for smaller classes which would allow for more physical distancing.  Also, school waste water should be tested for the virus as some colleges are doing.

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 16649
  • Age: 39
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3861 on: September 12, 2020, 05:22:40 PM »
I'm genuinely curious. Obviously many people here are in disagreement with waltworks about schools/daycares. To anyone who is more on the side of things that we should be closer to lockdowns in the US (or anyone who wants to answer, really), if you could snap your fingers and enact any regulation possible, what laws would you make, and how would you enforce it? I'm curious if people are just frustrated in general that Americans aren't doing sensible things like wear masks even when they're "required" to do so or not congregate together in large unmasked nonfamily groups, or if they are frustrated with the government in general for not passing some law restricting things or not enforcing their existing restrictions.

Schools and daycares need to reopen.  No question there.  Of course mask wearing should be mandatory for children in school, and any child with flu like symptoms should not be allowed in the school or daycare.  We know that children transmit the disease and are more likely to be asymptomatic carriers than adults.  To combat this we should be creating small cells of 8-10 children and an educator at these facilities.  This will limit the people directly exposed every time transmission happens in a child care facility.  Parents who have children in school or in daycare should minimize contact with high risk people where it's possible to avoid - but they should also do their best to socially isolate from everyone in life as they are at higher risk of transmitting the disease because of their children.

Children should not be playing with random kids at parks or going to the homes of all their friends as though there wasn't a pandemic going on.  Beyond their school cell, they should have limited contact with other children.  This way they still get some level of socialization, but we radically reduce the risks posed.

There's no easy way to ensure that some parents don't sabotage things for everyone else though.  We need to educate the ignorant and socially shame those willing to risk everyone else with reckless actions into doing what's right.  I'm not sure that there's legislation that could be passed to do this.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2020, 05:24:24 PM by GuitarStv »

waltworks

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4277
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3862 on: September 12, 2020, 06:08:11 PM »
We have mask mandates with pretty much 100% compliance, classes/pods at school to limit interaction between kids, etc. But we also have soccer/lacrosse/hockey/etc happening as normal (with adults all masked). Kid play at playgrounds basically as normal and roam the neighborhood.

So some of what you want, G-steve, and some not so much. Thus far it has worked really well here (we're a ski town that was at the vanguard of Covid back in March).

I think testing of wastewater is a great idea.

-W

Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2129
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3863 on: September 12, 2020, 09:13:14 PM »
I'm genuinely curious. Obviously many people here are in disagreement with waltworks about schools/daycares. To anyone who is more on the side of things that we should be closer to lockdowns in the US (or anyone who wants to answer, really), if you could snap your fingers and enact any regulation possible, what laws would you make, and how would you enforce it? I'm curious if people are just frustrated in general that Americans aren't doing sensible things like wear masks even when they're "required" to do so or not congregate together in large unmasked nonfamily groups, or if they are frustrated with the government in general for not passing some law restricting things or not enforcing their existing restrictions.

I happen to agree with Walt on this.

My question is different. I’m more interested in how further restrictions would be enforced and who would be enforcing them? Because you can pass all the laws and restrictions in the world, it’s the compliance and enforcement that matter. The police seem to be fairly busy getting bricks thrown at them right now. So I doubt they’re going to be all that enthusiastic about chasing down social distancing scofflaws.

I’m also curious about how restrictions are going to be any more successful than what we have right now. In my area, indoor use of masks is at close to 100%. Are we really going to get any better observance through further mandates? I think it more likely that it drives observance lower.


Kyle Schuant

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1297
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3864 on: September 13, 2020, 05:49:56 AM »
Meanwhile in Melbourne.

https://twitter.com/RitaPanahi/status/1305011527351582721

Note: the people the cops are pushing back here weren't part of the protest. The protesters were out on the street in front of the market, as they confronted them, people out shopping started throwing fruit at the cops. So that's when they cleared them out.

Spontaneous support apparently exists for the protesters.

Melbourne is in curfew now, from 9pm to 5am. We may meet with 1 other person outside from tomorrow. All retail is closed. 1.8 million people are unemployed in this state of 6.4 million. Masks are compulsory on pain of $200 fine. Going further than 5km from home by any means attracts a $1,652 fine. Those organising protests are being arrested for "incitement to commit an offence" (of breaching the Chief Health Officer's directions).

41 new SARS-Cov-2 cases today, 74 arrests.

Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2129
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3865 on: September 13, 2020, 06:22:56 AM »
Meanwhile in Melbourne.

https://twitter.com/RitaPanahi/status/1305011527351582721

Note: the people the cops are pushing back here weren't part of the protest. The protesters were out on the street in front of the market, as they confronted them, people out shopping started throwing fruit at the cops. So that's when they cleared them out.

Spontaneous support apparently exists for the protesters.

Melbourne is in curfew now, from 9pm to 5am. We may meet with 1 other person outside from tomorrow. All retail is closed. 1.8 million people are unemployed in this state of 6.4 million. Masks are compulsory on pain of $200 fine. Going further than 5km from home by any means attracts a $1,652 fine. Those organising protests are being arrested for "incitement to commit an offence" (of breaching the Chief Health Officer's directions).

41 new SARS-Cov-2 cases today, 74 arrests.

Nice police state y'all got there.  So when do you plan on moving? 

skp

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 196
  • Location: oh
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3866 on: September 13, 2020, 06:26:44 AM »
This just baffles me.  My grandbaby goes to day care and the toddler teacher in a room 2 doors down was covid positive.  They quarantined my grandbaby for 2 weeks even though she had no contact with said teacher.  I am a nurse.  2 of my coworkers are covid positive and I do come in contact with them.  We haven't been quarantined or even tested.
« Last Edit: September 13, 2020, 08:09:21 AM by skp »

Bloop Bloop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2140
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3867 on: September 13, 2020, 07:15:19 AM »
Meanwhile in Melbourne.

https://twitter.com/RitaPanahi/status/1305011527351582721

Note: the people the cops are pushing back here weren't part of the protest. The protesters were out on the street in front of the market, as they confronted them, people out shopping started throwing fruit at the cops. So that's when they cleared them out.

Spontaneous support apparently exists for the protesters.

Melbourne is in curfew now, from 9pm to 5am. We may meet with 1 other person outside from tomorrow. All retail is closed. 1.8 million people are unemployed in this state of 6.4 million. Masks are compulsory on pain of $200 fine. Going further than 5km from home by any means attracts a $1,652 fine. Those organising protests are being arrested for "incitement to commit an offence" (of breaching the Chief Health Officer's directions).

41 new SARS-Cov-2 cases today, 74 arrests.

Nice police state y'all got there.  So when do you plan on moving?

It's illegal to travel more than 5km from home or to leave home after 9pm. So we couldn't move if we wanted to. Of course if we were drug addicts we could move freely for treatment, etc

Shane

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1296
  • Location: PA
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3868 on: September 13, 2020, 09:08:35 AM »
If you get stopped by the cops for being more than 5kms from home, you could always just tell them you're out trying to find some heroin, or do you need some kind of proof that you're addicted?

fuzzy math

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1074
  • Age: 38
  • Location: PNW ---> Midwest (for now)
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3869 on: September 13, 2020, 10:34:25 AM »
This just baffles me.  My grandbaby goes to day care and the toddler teacher in a room 2 doors down was covid positive.  They quarantined my grandbaby for 2 weeks even though she had no contact with said teacher.  I am a nurse.  2 of my coworkers are covid positive and I do come in contact with them.  We haven't been quarantined or even tested.

Day cares don't want liability, so they blanket shut down. Hospitals have infection control departments and can actually assess whether people are likely to catch it. Also if hospitals were to quarantine employees every time there was a possible exposure, there would be no one left to care for patients. I can name over 20 people at my hospital who have had it. In every case except the 71 yr old, it was minor.

Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2129
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3870 on: September 13, 2020, 10:58:06 AM »
A good essay for our Aussie friends.  By HD Thoreau

https://www.ibiblio.org/ebooks/Thoreau/Civil%20Disobedience.pdf

Zamboni

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2704
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3871 on: September 13, 2020, 12:14:42 PM »
According to our premier:

Quote
There has been a 26.7% increase in young people presenting to emergency departments for intentional self-harm and suicidal ideation over the past few weeks,” Andrews said.

Last month, on 9 August, there was a 33% increase.

How many young people have to suffer when it would be simpler to just lock down health care workers, aged care residents and their families?

Apparently, all of them. It's insane/asinine in the US too. We re-opened colleges and enacted rigorous testing, which OF COURSE immediately revealed a concerning number of cases. However, last time I checked a few days ago, there were 25,000 cases and zero deaths among students. But we sent them all home anyway. So now not only are they not getting a good education, but they have been sent home where it's far more likely they'll cause the exact problem we're supposedly trying to prevent - infecting the old people.

Ummm, college students aren't the only ones at those colleges. There are faculty (mostly older people), food service workers, housekeepers, teaching assistants, staff who do all sorts of things like taking care of computers, working in the bookstore, etc. Some older housekeepers at my local university got infected in the 2 weeks that the school was open . . . most of the faculty had already refused to teach in person, despite the pressure from the administration. It was a failed plan from day one.

One friend had a son there in Chapel Hill and they had him living in a suite with seven (yes 7!) other roommates sharing two bedrooms and a common room. 4 of them got infected. His son managed somehow to not get infected but had to abruptly move into the quarantine dorm and stay there 14 days by himself. Wasn't even allowed to go out to get food. Messed up system for sure. Then his parents were told to pick him up. So 12 days in college, 14 days after that in quarantine. Thankfully he handled it all well.

The colleges which have successfully stayed open in residential mode have:
1. Opened a week or two later than the big places that made the news with problems. Those problems were a wake up call.
2. Told students to get tested two weeks before coming to campus, then quarantine in their homes, then tested them again upon arrival, and then continued to test people randomly every week.
3. Switched the dorm rooms to single occupancy.
4. Been very strict with mask mandates, symptom reporting apps, and required testing to stay in campus buildings.
5. Have all large-sized classes online anyway. Only research, labs, and small classes that can accommodate social distancing are allowed to be in person.
6. Reported statistics from on campus testing on a weekly basis.
This combination of steps seems to be working.

The ACC is testing all athletes daily now. Yes, daily. Funny how having a huge amount of money on the line makes the impossible become possible.

frugalnacho

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4220
  • Age: 37
  • Location: Madison Heights, Michigan
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3872 on: September 14, 2020, 07:30:24 AM »


And here is my neighbor this weekend throwing a huge pandemic party.  I counted 40 some people, although I suspect there were more I couldn't see.  This is a shot of 1 driveway, but the driveway next door was just as packed, as well as both backyards.  3 sets of cornhole boards set up, a DJ, and lots of drinking.  Lots of hand shakes and hug greetings as well.  I guess they were at least keeping it mostly outside?

We were invited but declined to show up. 

LaineyAZ

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 431
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3873 on: September 14, 2020, 07:33:47 AM »
Man, it's like we're living in a parallel universe sometimes.  Virus, what virus??

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 16649
  • Age: 39
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3874 on: September 14, 2020, 07:45:35 AM »
Man, it's like we're living in a parallel universe sometimes.  Virus, what virus??

Didn't you hear?  We got bored of Coronavirus, so it doesn't exist any more.

former player

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5813
  • Location: Avalon
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3875 on: September 14, 2020, 07:51:15 AM »
There may now be about a million people in the USA who have caught Covid-19 but not died from it who nevertheless now have potentially long-term heart and lung damage or other long-term symptoms-


https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/09/what-young-healthy-people-have-fear-covid-19/616087/?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB

ctuser1

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1391
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3876 on: September 14, 2020, 08:34:01 AM »
A good essay for our Aussie friends.  By HD Thoreau

https://www.ibiblio.org/ebooks/Thoreau/Civil%20Disobedience.pdf

You made me nostalgic.

I read this one a looooooooong time ago (20 years ago) as a slim paperback. I went looking for that book and could not find it. I must have lost it. :-(

Meanwhile in Melbourne.

https://twitter.com/RitaPanahi/status/1305011527351582721

Note: the people the cops are pushing back here weren't part of the protest. The protesters were out on the street in front of the market, as they confronted them, people out shopping started throwing fruit at the cops. So that's when they cleared them out.

Spontaneous support apparently exists for the protesters.

Melbourne is in curfew now, from 9pm to 5am. We may meet with 1 other person outside from tomorrow. All retail is closed. 1.8 million people are unemployed in this state of 6.4 million. Masks are compulsory on pain of $200 fine. Going further than 5km from home by any means attracts a $1,652 fine. Those organising protests are being arrested for "incitement to commit an offence" (of breaching the Chief Health Officer's directions).

41 new SARS-Cov-2 cases today, 74 arrests.

Nice police state y'all got there.  So when do you plan on moving?

My impression is that US has a much worse police state compared to AUS. Just look up the police brutality stats, the "civil asset forfeiture" laws and other associated ones aimed at disenfranchising people etc. etc. etc. and I believe (I have not personally done a detailed research on it) overwhelming amount of statistical support will be found that US has a worse police state than Australia.

We just selectively exempt people who look a certain way from most of that police state's abusive behaviors!

How dare Australia not learn that from us??!!

Bloop Bloop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2140
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3877 on: September 14, 2020, 08:44:36 AM »
There may now be about a million people in the USA who have caught Covid-19 but not died from it who nevertheless now have potentially long-term heart and lung damage or other long-term symptoms-


https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/09/what-young-healthy-people-have-fear-covid-19/616087/?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB

In response to that, the below article cites several studies that suggest that half of cases may be asymptomatic. The Australian statistics on hospitalisation figures as of 2 weeks ago (the stats have since been scrubbed from the website I took them from, no idea why) were as follows:

People under 50:
- 11,979 cases
- 51 hospitalisations (0.4%)
- 4 deaths (0.03%)

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/the-feed/covid-19-how-common-is-it-to-be-asymptomatic-and-should-we-be-worried

I would accept that some people with the virus might not require hospitalisation but might still have long-term ailments but based on a hospitalisation rate of 0.4% I really doubt the U.S. numbers are as high as being claimed.

Really the whole thing smacks of health authorities trying to plant the seed in young people's minds that the virus is more dangerous to them than is thought. The truth is that for someone in their 20s or 30s the asymptomatic rate could well be as high as 50%, the hospitalisation rate is well under 1% and the death rate is well under 0.1%. In fact in Australia for people under the age of 33 the death rate is 0.000%

Note also that we know severity of symptoms correlates with comorbidities particularly respiratory issues and obesity so if you're young, healthy and not fat the above figures can be pared down even further. Some guy in his 20s was said to be Australia's youngest coronavirus victim but turns out he had a drug overdose which seems to me to be a more likely precipitating factor.
« Last Edit: September 14, 2020, 08:47:41 AM by Bloop Bloop »

former player

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5813
  • Location: Avalon
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3878 on: September 14, 2020, 08:59:47 AM »
There may now be about a million people in the USA who have caught Covid-19 but not died from it who nevertheless now have potentially long-term heart and lung damage or other long-term symptoms-


https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/09/what-young-healthy-people-have-fear-covid-19/616087/?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB

In response to that, the below article cites several studies that suggest that half of cases may be asymptomatic. The Australian statistics on hospitalisation figures as of 2 weeks ago (the stats have since been scrubbed from the website I took them from, no idea why) were as follows:

People under 50:
- 11,979 cases
- 51 hospitalisations (0.4%)
- 4 deaths (0.03%)

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/the-feed/covid-19-how-common-is-it-to-be-asymptomatic-and-should-we-be-worried

I would accept that some people with the virus might not require hospitalisation but might still have long-term ailments but based on a hospitalisation rate of 0.4% I really doubt the U.S. numbers are as high as being claimed.

Really the whole thing smacks of health authorities trying to plant the seed in young people's minds that the virus is more dangerous to them than is thought. The truth is that for someone in their 20s or 30s the asymptomatic rate could well be as high as 50%, the hospitalisation rate is well under 1% and the death rate is well under 0.1%. In fact in Australia for people under the age of 33 the death rate is 0.000%

Note also that we know severity of symptoms correlates with comorbidities particularly respiratory issues and obesity so if you're young, healthy and not fat the above figures can be pared down even further. Some guy in his 20s was said to be Australia's youngest coronavirus victim but turns out he had a drug overdose which seems to me to be a more likely precipitating factor.
Here's a report of a small study of competive college student athletes who recovered from mild or asymptomatic Covid-19, showing 15% of them had heart damage.

Shane

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1296
  • Location: PA
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3879 on: September 14, 2020, 09:05:27 AM »
Recently, a friend of a friend lost their 20 something year old son in a car crash. The family was surprised to receive their son's death certificate listing the cause of death as Covid-19. The parents complained and asked to have the death certificate changed, but the hospital is refusing. Apparently, the man tested positive for Covid at the ER, before he died. Hospital says they're following their policies and procedures... wtf?

the_fixer

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 906
  • Location: Colorado
  • mind on my money money on my mind
How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3880 on: September 14, 2020, 09:25:14 AM »


And here is my neighbor this weekend throwing a huge pandemic party.  I counted 40 some people, although I suspect there were more I couldn't see.  This is a shot of 1 driveway, but the driveway next door was just as packed, as well as both backyards.  3 sets of cornhole boards set up, a DJ, and lots of drinking.  Lots of hand shakes and hug greetings as well.  I guess they were at least keeping it mostly outside?

We were invited but declined to show up.
I have witnessed similar situations as shown in the picture and at first I was like WTF are people thinking.

However as time has gone on I can not blame them when you have the leader (and leadership) of the country saying he does not want to wear a mask, holding huge political rallies with people not wearing masks and business breaking the rules having thousands of people attend events with no consequences I kind of get it... if it is ok for them to do it people are going to say screw it I am having my party, event or whatever.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Bloop Bloop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2140
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3881 on: September 14, 2020, 09:39:11 AM »
There may now be about a million people in the USA who have caught Covid-19 but not died from it who nevertheless now have potentially long-term heart and lung damage or other long-term symptoms-


https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/09/what-young-healthy-people-have-fear-covid-19/616087/?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB

In response to that, the below article cites several studies that suggest that half of cases may be asymptomatic. The Australian statistics on hospitalisation figures as of 2 weeks ago (the stats have since been scrubbed from the website I took them from, no idea why) were as follows:

People under 50:
- 11,979 cases
- 51 hospitalisations (0.4%)
- 4 deaths (0.03%)

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/the-feed/covid-19-how-common-is-it-to-be-asymptomatic-and-should-we-be-worried

I would accept that some people with the virus might not require hospitalisation but might still have long-term ailments but based on a hospitalisation rate of 0.4% I really doubt the U.S. numbers are as high as being claimed.

Really the whole thing smacks of health authorities trying to plant the seed in young people's minds that the virus is more dangerous to them than is thought. The truth is that for someone in their 20s or 30s the asymptomatic rate could well be as high as 50%, the hospitalisation rate is well under 1% and the death rate is well under 0.1%. In fact in Australia for people under the age of 33 the death rate is 0.000%

Note also that we know severity of symptoms correlates with comorbidities particularly respiratory issues and obesity so if you're young, healthy and not fat the above figures can be pared down even further. Some guy in his 20s was said to be Australia's youngest coronavirus victim but turns out he had a drug overdose which seems to me to be a more likely precipitating factor.
Here's a report of a small study of competive college student athletes who recovered from mild or asymptomatic Covid-19, showing 15% of them had heart damage.

Is there a link I'm missing?

former player

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5813
  • Location: Avalon
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3882 on: September 14, 2020, 09:41:49 AM »
There may now be about a million people in the USA who have caught Covid-19 but not died from it who nevertheless now have potentially long-term heart and lung damage or other long-term symptoms-


https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/09/what-young-healthy-people-have-fear-covid-19/616087/?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB

In response to that, the below article cites several studies that suggest that half of cases may be asymptomatic. The Australian statistics on hospitalisation figures as of 2 weeks ago (the stats have since been scrubbed from the website I took them from, no idea why) were as follows:

People under 50:
- 11,979 cases
- 51 hospitalisations (0.4%)
- 4 deaths (0.03%)

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/the-feed/covid-19-how-common-is-it-to-be-asymptomatic-and-should-we-be-worried

I would accept that some people with the virus might not require hospitalisation but might still have long-term ailments but based on a hospitalisation rate of 0.4% I really doubt the U.S. numbers are as high as being claimed.

Really the whole thing smacks of health authorities trying to plant the seed in young people's minds that the virus is more dangerous to them than is thought. The truth is that for someone in their 20s or 30s the asymptomatic rate could well be as high as 50%, the hospitalisation rate is well under 1% and the death rate is well under 0.1%. In fact in Australia for people under the age of 33 the death rate is 0.000%

Note also that we know severity of symptoms correlates with comorbidities particularly respiratory issues and obesity so if you're young, healthy and not fat the above figures can be pared down even further. Some guy in his 20s was said to be Australia's youngest coronavirus victim but turns out he had a drug overdose which seems to me to be a more likely precipitating factor.
Here's a report of a small study of competive college student athletes who recovered from mild or asymptomatic Covid-19, showing 15% of them had heart damage.

Is there a link I'm missing?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-11/heart-injury-after-covid-spurs-call-to-screen-college-athletes

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2770645

waltworks

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4277
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3883 on: September 14, 2020, 10:50:34 AM »
Myocarditis almost always resolves itself in a few months, though it would be annoying if you were in the middle of your sport's season, since you have to lay off max effort exercise for a while.

Spinning this as "heart damage" is a bit misleading. It's not good, but it's also not uncommon after lots of viral infections, and it's almost always something that resolves on it's own. I have personally had it, so I know quite a bit about it.

https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/CIRCRESAHA.118.313578#:~:text=All%20patients%20with%20acute%20myocarditis,failure%20and%20arrhythmias%2C%20if%20applicable.&text=In%20addition%2C%203%20to%206,of%20remodeling%20and%20sudden%20death.

-W

DadJokes

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1698
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3884 on: September 14, 2020, 10:53:51 AM »


And here is my neighbor this weekend throwing a huge pandemic party.  I counted 40 some people, although I suspect there were more I couldn't see.  This is a shot of 1 driveway, but the driveway next door was just as packed, as well as both backyards.  3 sets of cornhole boards set up, a DJ, and lots of drinking.  Lots of hand shakes and hug greetings as well.  I guess they were at least keeping it mostly outside?

We were invited but declined to show up.
I have witnessed similar situations as shown in the picture and at first I was like WTF are people thinking.

However as time has gone on I can not blame them when you have the leader (and leadership) of the country saying he does not want to wear a mask, holding huge political rallies with people not wearing masks and business breaking the rules having thousands of people attend events with no consequences I kind of get it... if it is ok for them to do it people are going to say screw it I am having my party, event or whatever.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Eyeroll

People aren't sitting on the toilet waiting for the federal government to tell them whether or not they can wipe. I'm sure that most people are going about their lives in exactly the same manner they would if the other party was in the white house.

In a country where 60% of the people vote, it seems silly to think that people are taking cues from the government on how they should live. Maybe we'd be better off if Americans did listen to authority figures (in most cases, anyway), but the reality is that they don't.

Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2129
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3885 on: September 14, 2020, 01:19:17 PM »

I have witnessed similar situations as shown in the picture and at first I was like WTF are people thinking.

However as time has gone on I can not blame them when you have the leader (and leadership) of the country saying he does not want to wear a mask, holding huge political rallies with people not wearing masks and business breaking the rules having thousands of people attend events with no consequences I kind of get it... if it is ok for them to do it people are going to say screw it I am having my party, event or whatever.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Eyeroll

People aren't sitting on the toilet waiting for the federal government to tell them whether or not they can wipe. I'm sure that most people are going about their lives in exactly the same manner they would if the other party was in the white house.

In a country where 60% of the people vote, it seems silly to think that people are taking cues from the government on how they should live. Maybe we'd be better off if Americans did listen to authority figures (in most cases, anyway), but the reality is that they don't.
[/quote]

+1 on the eye roll.

Stupid people are going to do stupid things. There is no lack of messaging to encourage people to wear masks and socially distance. Because if you don’t you or someone you care about might get very sick or die. That’s a pretty simple message. Yet some people are going to disregard the message regardless.

Changing out one unworthy for another unworthy in November isn’t going to result in some sudden increase in the average IQ or or a renaissance of common sense. WYSIWYG.

Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2129
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3886 on: September 14, 2020, 02:48:45 PM »

My impression is that US has a much worse police state compared to AUS. Just look up the police brutality stats, the "civil asset forfeiture" laws and other associated ones aimed at disenfranchising people etc. etc. etc. and I believe (I have not personally done a detailed research on it) overwhelming amount of statistical support will be found that US has a worse police state than Australia.

We just selectively exempt people who look a certain way from most of that police state's abusive behaviors!

How dare Australia not learn that from us??!!

From my personal perspective, the US is far easier to deal with. Im also likely more affluent than average. See Niki’s quote below. He pretty much nailed it.

In the US with some common sense and money, you can generally avoid authoritarian silliness. And disobedience happens to be baked into the culture. Unfortunately in Australia I suspect I’d be in jail a lot. I refuse to vote and would likely take measures to make sure I wasn’t easily fined for that refusal. And then they have this “incitement” crime that they’re fond of charging people with like that pregnant woman they dragged off last week for organizing a protest. That could get real ugly.

There is a lot to love about the US of A. The Constitution, people who are not inclined to go along, capitalism, etc. The good outweighs the bad by orders of magnitude in my view.



Davnasty

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2582
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3887 on: September 14, 2020, 02:53:59 PM »
So countries which have effectively managed the spread of the virus don't have stupid people? That seems pretty unlikely.

If Trump wore a mask and encouraged others to do so from the beginning, more people would do it. That seems so painfully obvious to me that I don't even know how to argue with the above comments. If both sides agreed it wouldn't have become politicized.

DadJokes

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1698
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3888 on: September 14, 2020, 03:00:48 PM »
So countries which have effectively managed the spread of the virus don't have stupid people? That seems pretty unlikely.

If Trump wore a mask and encouraged others to do so from the beginning, more people would do it. That seems so painfully obvious to me that I don't even know how to argue with the above comments. If both sides agreed it wouldn't have become politicized.

Then you have a misunderstanding of the fundamental values of Americans. We don't do what we're told. A lot of people I see do the opposite of what they should just because "freedom."

For the record, I didn't say that it was because of IQ. People are idiots everywhere, as far as I can tell.

the_fixer

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 906
  • Location: Colorado
  • mind on my money money on my mind
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3889 on: September 14, 2020, 03:27:07 PM »


And here is my neighbor this weekend throwing a huge pandemic party.  I counted 40 some people, although I suspect there were more I couldn't see.  This is a shot of 1 driveway, but the driveway next door was just as packed, as well as both backyards.  3 sets of cornhole boards set up, a DJ, and lots of drinking.  Lots of hand shakes and hug greetings as well.  I guess they were at least keeping it mostly outside?

We were invited but declined to show up.
I have witnessed similar situations as shown in the picture and at first I was like WTF are people thinking.

However as time has gone on I can not blame them when you have the leader (and leadership) of the country saying he does not want to wear a mask, holding huge political rallies with people not wearing masks and business breaking the rules having thousands of people attend events with no consequences I kind of get it... if it is ok for them to do it people are going to say screw it I am having my party, event or whatever.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Eyeroll

People aren't sitting on the toilet waiting for the federal government to tell them whether or not they can wipe. I'm sure that most people are going about their lives in exactly the same manner they would if the other party was in the white house.

In a country where 60% of the people vote, it seems silly to think that people are taking cues from the government on how they should live. Maybe we'd be better off if Americans did listen to authority figures (in most cases, anyway), but the reality is that they don't.


And here is my neighbor this weekend throwing a huge pandemic party.  I counted 40 some people, although I suspect there were more I couldn't see.  This is a shot of 1 driveway, but the driveway next door was just as packed, as well as both backyards.  3 sets of cornhole boards set up, a DJ, and lots of drinking.  Lots of hand shakes and hug greetings as well.  I guess they were at least keeping it mostly outside?

We were invited but declined to show up.
I have witnessed similar situations as shown in the picture and at first I was like WTF are people thinking.

However as time has gone on I can not blame them when you have the leader (and leadership) of the country saying he does not want to wear a mask, holding huge political rallies with people not wearing masks and business breaking the rules having thousands of people attend events with no consequences I kind of get it... if it is ok for them to do it people are going to say screw it I am having my party, event or whatever.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Eyeroll

People aren't sitting on the toilet waiting for the federal government to tell them whether or not they can wipe. I'm sure that most people are going about their lives in exactly the same manner they would if the other party was in the white house.

In a country where 60% of the people vote, it seems silly to think that people are taking cues from the government on how they should live. Maybe we'd be better off if Americans did listen to authority figures (in most cases, anyway), but the reality is that they don't.

Eye Roll? Really? Grow up.

You obviously have something eating at your mind that I was not implying.

People see how leaders and businesses are acting and I can not blame them for say hell with it if they can get away with it so can I. Not sure why you need to turn that into a political statement?

For example - a large racetrack here in Colorado blatantly broke the rules that were in place by holding a large race with thousands of fans. So they can have thousands of people and get away with it that says something.

Another example - local coaches were still holding group practices against the rules while the fields and playgrounds were shutdown. So they can hold group practice with 30+ high school kids but a family cannot go shoot hoops or let their kid play in the field? See how people could get frustrated and say F it?

How about the bars / restaurants that opened despite the shutdown?

How about Sturgis?

How about the political rallies?

From the top to the bottom people are seeing this and many are saying to hell with it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

ctuser1

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1391
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3890 on: September 14, 2020, 03:36:32 PM »
From my personal perspective, the US is far easier to deal with. Im also likely more affluent than average. See Niki’s quote below. He pretty much nailed it.

In the US with some common sense and money, you can generally avoid authoritarian silliness. And disobedience happens to be baked into the culture. Unfortunately in Australia I suspect I’d be in jail a lot. I refuse to vote and would likely take measures to make sure I wasn’t easily fined for that refusal. And then they have this “incitement” crime that they’re fond of charging people with like that pregnant woman they dragged off last week for organizing a protest. That could get real ugly.

There is a lot to love about the US of A. The Constitution, people who are not inclined to go along, capitalism, etc. The good outweighs the bad by orders of magnitude in my view.

I'm pretty sure wealth plays a big role. I'd also be considered in the upper middle class and don't remember my liberties ever being curtailed. Even so, Khruschev's quote is only partially accurate for the US!! Cite: someone who looks like Henry Louis Gates (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Louis_Gates_arrest_controversy) likely can't take it for granted that the police state will leave them alone, while his colleagues at Harvard with a different set of physical features likely can!!

But then, we can do better than just anecdotal evidences. Look at the "Civil Liberties" score of Australia vs. US in the Democracy Index: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index#cite_note-index2012-2.


Davnasty

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2582
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3891 on: September 14, 2020, 03:42:38 PM »
So countries which have effectively managed the spread of the virus don't have stupid people? That seems pretty unlikely.

If Trump wore a mask and encouraged others to do so from the beginning, more people would do it. That seems so painfully obvious to me that I don't even know how to argue with the above comments. If both sides agreed it wouldn't have become politicized.

Then you have a misunderstanding of the fundamental values of Americans. We don't do what we're told. A lot of people I see do the opposite of what they should just because "freedom."

For the record, I didn't say that it was because of IQ. People are idiots everywhere, as far as I can tell.

Mask wearing has clearly become politicized. Just like every other politicized issue, most people who identify with a party will agree with the party position. Those people might believe they think for themselves and make their own decisions, but most of them are wrong. If the issue hadn't been politicized, they would have had the opportunity to make their own decision.

The stupid part was in response to Boris.

Anette

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 134
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3892 on: September 14, 2020, 05:07:29 PM »
Myocarditis almost always resolves itself in a few months, though it would be annoying if you were in the middle of your sport's season, since you have to lay off max effort exercise for a while.

Spinning this as "heart damage" is a bit misleading. It's not good, but it's also not uncommon after lots of viral infections, and it's almost always something that resolves on it's own. I have personally had it, so I know quite a bit about it.

https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/CIRCRESAHA.118.313578#:~:text=All%20patients%20with%20acute%20myocarditis,failure%20and%20arrhythmias%2C%20if%20applicable.&text=In%20addition%2C%203%20to%206,of%20remodeling%20and%20sudden%20death.

-W

Yes!
But the Media is not going to tell you this because they are among the ones who blew this thing up out of proportion.

ReadySetMillionaire

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1635
  • Location: The Buckeye State
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3893 on: September 14, 2020, 05:20:34 PM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-11/heart-injury-after-covid-spurs-call-to-screen-college-athletes

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2770645

In the age of misinformation, these studies top the list. They surfaced on Twitter in large part due to the Big Ten cancelling football. Doctors and cardiologists from all over called the studies unreliable due to (a) not having a control arm, (b) subjectivity of imaging, (c) extremely small sample size, (d) likelihood that elite athletes have cardiovascular irregularities in the first place. The study itself calls out its own shortcomings:

Quote
Study limitations include lack of baseline CMR imaging and variable timing of CMR imaging from a positive COVID-19 test result. Athletic cardiac adaptation could be responsible for these abnormalities; however, in this cohort, mean (SD) T2 in those with suspected myocarditis was 59 (3) milliseconds vs 51 (2) milliseconds in those without, favoring pathology. Additionally, the rate of LGE (42%) is higher than in previously described normative populations. To conclude, while long-term follow-up and large studies including control populations are required to understand CMR changes in competitive athletes, CMR may provide an excellent risk-stratification assessment for myocarditis in athletes who have recovered from COVID-19 to guide safe competitive sports participation.

Several professors/physicians within the conference are presenting data to the Big Ten Conference perhaps as we speak discussing why these types of studies are completely unreliable; and it is part of the reason the Big Ten is likely to reverse course and re-implement football.

***

It is the constant red siren referencing to these types of alarmist studies -- similar to the *one* dude out of Hong Kong who got reinfected -- that will never get us out of this morass. People and government officials seem to be looking for news that confirm their worst COVID fears.

DadJokes

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1698
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3894 on: September 14, 2020, 06:37:24 PM »


And here is my neighbor this weekend throwing a huge pandemic party.  I counted 40 some people, although I suspect there were more I couldn't see.  This is a shot of 1 driveway, but the driveway next door was just as packed, as well as both backyards.  3 sets of cornhole boards set up, a DJ, and lots of drinking.  Lots of hand shakes and hug greetings as well.  I guess they were at least keeping it mostly outside?

We were invited but declined to show up.
I have witnessed similar situations as shown in the picture and at first I was like WTF are people thinking.

However as time has gone on I can not blame them when you have the leader (and leadership) of the country saying he does not want to wear a mask, holding huge political rallies with people not wearing masks and business breaking the rules having thousands of people attend events with no consequences I kind of get it... if it is ok for them to do it people are going to say screw it I am having my party, event or whatever.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Eyeroll

People aren't sitting on the toilet waiting for the federal government to tell them whether or not they can wipe. I'm sure that most people are going about their lives in exactly the same manner they would if the other party was in the white house.

In a country where 60% of the people vote, it seems silly to think that people are taking cues from the government on how they should live. Maybe we'd be better off if Americans did listen to authority figures (in most cases, anyway), but the reality is that they don't.

Eye Roll? Really? Grow up.

You obviously have something eating at your mind that I was not implying.

People see how leaders and businesses are acting and I can not blame them for say hell with it if they can get away with it so can I. Not sure why you need to turn that into a political statement?

For example - a large racetrack here in Colorado blatantly broke the rules that were in place by holding a large race with thousands of fans. So they can have thousands of people and get away with it that says something.

Another example - local coaches were still holding group practices against the rules while the fields and playgrounds were shutdown. So they can hold group practice with 30+ high school kids but a family cannot go shoot hoops or let their kid play in the field? See how people could get frustrated and say F it?

How about the bars / restaurants that opened despite the shutdown?

How about Sturgis?

How about the political rallies?

From the top to the bottom people are seeing this and many are saying to hell with it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Most of your examples prove my point. Even with laws in place, people are doing whatever they want.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2020, 05:37:40 AM by DadJokes »

Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2129
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3895 on: September 14, 2020, 06:46:14 PM »
So countries which have effectively managed the spread of the virus don't have stupid people? That seems pretty unlikely.

If Trump wore a mask and encouraged others to do so from the beginning, more people would do it. That seems so painfully obvious to me that I don't even know how to argue with the above comments. If both sides agreed it wouldn't have become politicized.

Then you have a misunderstanding of the fundamental values of Americans. We don't do what we're told. A lot of people I see do the opposite of what they should just because "freedom."

For the record, I didn't say that it was because of IQ. People are idiots everywhere, as far as I can tell.

Mask wearing has clearly become politicized. Just like every other politicized issue, most people who identify with a party will agree with the party position. Those people might believe they think for themselves and make their own decisions, but most of them are wrong. If the issue hadn't been politicized, they would have had the opportunity to make their own decision.

The stupid part was in response to Boris.

Well I’m the first to own up to being stupid. Hell, I have a Ph.d in it. I embrace that lofty mantle!

But more to the point, of course other countries have stupid people. We in the US seem to have the market cornered though on being stupid AND disobedient AND self destructive. So let’s just call it Stupid Cubed  for short.  I should have made that clearer. But what can I say? See above.

Neither You nor I nor all the Kings Men are going change Stupid Cubed. Nor is the person we put in the White House.

mrsnamemustache

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 79
  • Location: FL
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3896 on: September 14, 2020, 07:07:09 PM »


And here is my neighbor this weekend throwing a huge pandemic party.  I counted 40 some people, although I suspect there were more I couldn't see.  This is a shot of 1 driveway, but the driveway next door was just as packed, as well as both backyards.  3 sets of cornhole boards set up, a DJ, and lots of drinking.  Lots of hand shakes and hug greetings as well.  I guess they were at least keeping it mostly outside?

We were invited but declined to show up.

Honestly, I think we should be happy that parties like this (appear to be) happening outside. In my opinion, asking 20-something year olds to go a year or longer without going to parties is just not realistic, particularly given the relatively low risks most face. I think it is better to encourage outdoor parties than to act as though all parties are equally bad and no one should go to parties.

Bloop Bloop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2140
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3897 on: September 14, 2020, 07:07:48 PM »

My impression is that US has a much worse police state compared to AUS. Just look up the police brutality stats, the "civil asset forfeiture" laws and other associated ones aimed at disenfranchising people etc. etc. etc. and I believe (I have not personally done a detailed research on it) overwhelming amount of statistical support will be found that US has a worse police state than Australia.

We just selectively exempt people who look a certain way from most of that police state's abusive behaviors!

How dare Australia not learn that from us??!!

From my personal perspective, the US is far easier to deal with. Im also likely more affluent than average. See Niki’s quote below. He pretty much nailed it.

In the US with some common sense and money, you can generally avoid authoritarian silliness. And disobedience happens to be baked into the culture. Unfortunately in Australia I suspect I’d be in jail a lot. I refuse to vote and would likely take measures to make sure I wasn’t easily fined for that refusal. And then they have this “incitement” crime that they’re fond of charging people with like that pregnant woman they dragged off last week for organizing a protest. That could get real ugly.

There is a lot to love about the US of A. The Constitution, people who are not inclined to go along, capitalism, etc. The good outweighs the bad by orders of magnitude in my view.

It's interesting because the incitement laws were never used on the organisers of the Black Lives Matter protest. Or, from the other end of the political spectrum, they weren't used on the organisers and supporters of various abortion clinic protests during non-covid times (those protests are illegal under a different law which bans harassment of women seeking abortions). The incitement laws seem only to be targeted against lockdown protestors.

We have just found out that 25% of yesterday's new caseload can be attributed to 2 migrant family clusters in one suburb. No mention of it in the news other than in one article. No mention of it in daily discussion.

It's kinda time we lay blame where it's due - large/multigenerational family transmission - and stop acting like single people / couples living in non-hotspot suburbs carry equal risk and should therefore bear equal burden.

I just can't believe the messaging that people are happily swallowing.

Zamboni

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2704
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3898 on: September 14, 2020, 07:22:29 PM »
^Oh, the thinly veiled racism.

Bloop Bloop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2140
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3899 on: September 14, 2020, 07:33:01 PM »
It's not racism to state that migrant communities have been having lots of problems with community transmission, and are to blame for a recent hotspot. Our Chief Health Officer just referenced the Afghan migrant community himself:

https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/new-covid-19-hotspot-emerges-in-melbourne-s-south-east-20200914-p55vj1.html

Obviously, it's not race per se that's the issue (for the more affluent and more established migrant communities in the inner eastern suburbs have avoided outbreaks); it's lack of language skills and education and large family living groups within certain parts of the migrant community. Me adverting to that is not racism. You trying to paint any reference to race as "racism" shows that you adhere to the view - which unfortunately seems to be the prevailing view - that because we can't make any meaningful distinctions that reference race or class or gender, therefore all members of society must pay an equal price. Which is leading to a lot of non-risky areas getting locked down and a lot of sole traders and hair dressers and restauranteurs suffering a huge amount of harm.