Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 253721 times)

lutorm

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #250 on: March 26, 2020, 12:24:31 PM »

Due to the lack of testing, we are flying blind with this outbreak. More Tests Equal More Confirmed Cases. Less confirmed cases does not mean less cases!
Deaths are deaths, though, they're a bit harder to hide: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-by-country.html

afox

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #251 on: March 26, 2020, 12:30:17 PM »

Due to the lack of testing, we are flying blind with this outbreak. More Tests Equal More Confirmed Cases. Less confirmed cases does not mean less cases!
Deaths are deaths, though, they're a bit harder to hide: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-by-country.html

yeah but to be useful number of deaths reallly needs to be normalized. its not useful to compare number of deaths in us (350m people) to italy (60m people).

also, are we really testing everyone that dies with covid symptoms? without a test, cause of death could be pneumonia, heart failure or something else. when tests are so limited why waste a test on someone that is dead or going to die anyway? especially when that test could be used to test a health care worker or someone who lived in a group setting, potentially infecting many others.


GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #252 on: March 26, 2020, 12:32:51 PM »

Due to the lack of testing, we are flying blind with this outbreak. More Tests Equal More Confirmed Cases. Less confirmed cases does not mean less cases!
Deaths are deaths, though, they're a bit harder to hide: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-by-country.html

yeah but to be useful number of deaths reallly needs to be normalized. its not useful to compare number of deaths in us (350m people) to italy (60m people).

also, are we really testing everyone that dies with covid symptoms? without a test, cause of death could be pneumonia, heart failure or something else. when tests are so limited why waste a test on someone that is dead or going to die anyway? especially when that test could be used to test a health care worker or someone who lived in a group setting, potentially infecting many others.

Are all corpses tested for coronavirus?  If they're not, you might not know the real numbers.

JGS1980

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #253 on: March 26, 2020, 12:44:16 PM »
"Translating that to the US, we are looking at maybe 40-50k deaths.  Still terrible but way less than what would be a catastrophic event."
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I hope you and the Imperial Study are right, Millionaire

*USA has 1000 total deaths as of today (75 deaths per day at this time), and assuming EVERYONE is 100% serious about social distancing beginning today, we will have about 15 days of additional exponential positive infection tests [the infections themselves have mostly already occurred, they just haven't been diagnosed or counted], with corresponding 15 days of additional exponential deaths. There will be a 6-9 day delay between diagnosis and death for the unlucky. This also assumes we don't overwhelm the medical system. Lots of assumptions here, I know. All these assumptions are conservative.

So infections are at 75K in USA today, will double 5 times before they decrease their rate of growth, and hopefully turn the corner after that. At exponential peak, we will have 2,400,000 infected.

This leads to 75 deaths per day doubling 5 times, or 4650 new deaths by end of April 10th, total of 5650 deaths by Good Friday. Add the 6-9 day delay from diagnosis till death and we will have 20050 deaths total in 3 weeks. Reverse it for an additional 20050 assuming no new infections from then on, and we will have 40100 deaths in 6 weeks.

I am not at all certain about my numbers above, please check my math.
The tighter the control of spread FROM TODAY ON, the closer the results will be to the math. The looser the control of spread, and that number will only be higher.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 02:11:26 PM by JGS1980 »

afox

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #254 on: March 26, 2020, 12:51:03 PM »

Due to the lack of testing, we are flying blind with this outbreak. More Tests Equal More Confirmed Cases. Less confirmed cases does not mean less cases!
Deaths are deaths, though, they're a bit harder to hide: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-by-country.html


yeah but to be useful number of deaths reallly needs to be normalized. its not useful to compare number of deaths in us (350m people) to italy (60m people).

also, are we really testing everyone that dies with covid symptoms? without a test, cause of death could be pneumonia, heart failure or something else. when tests are so limited why waste a test on someone that is dead or going to die anyway? especially when that test could be used to test a health care worker or someone who lived in a group setting, potentially infecting many others.

Are all corpses tested for coronavirus?  If they're not, you might not know the real numbers.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/coronavirus-update-dead-covid19-doctors-hospitals

Boofinator

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #255 on: March 26, 2020, 12:57:40 PM »
Maybe go back to the off topic area if you want to bitch about that stuff

The 100-post minimum in the Off-Topic has simply spread the nonsense around to the rest of the forum. I'd say at least half the topics that are covering coronavirus belong in Off-Topic, including this one.

Boofinator

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #256 on: March 26, 2020, 01:02:46 PM »
Maybe go back to the off topic area if you want to bitch about that stuff

The 100-post minimum in the Off-Topic has simply spread the nonsense around to the rest of the forum. I'd say at least half the topics that are covering coronavirus belong in Off-Topic, including this one.

mizzourah2006

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #257 on: March 26, 2020, 01:30:58 PM »
"Translating that to the US, we are looking at maybe 40-50k deaths.  Still terrible but way less than what would be a catastrophic event."
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I hope you and the Imperial Study are right, Millionaire

*USA has 1000 total deaths as of today (75 deaths per day at this time), and assuming folks in outlying areas are completely serious about social distancing beginning today, we will have about 15 days of additional exponential positive infection tests [the infections themselves have mostly already occurred, they just haven't been diagnosed or counted], with corresponding 15 days of additional exponential deaths. There will be a 6-9 day delay between diagnosis and death for the unlucky. This also assumes we don't overwhelm the medical system. Lots of assumptions here, I know. All these assumptions are conservative.

So infections are at 75K in USA today, will double 5 times before they decrease their rate of growth, and hopefully turn the corner after that. At exponential peak, we will have 2,400,000 infected.

This leads to 75 deaths per day doubling 5 times, or 4650 new deaths by end of April 10th, total of 5650 deaths by Good Friday. Add the 6-9 day delay from diagnosis till death and we will have 20050 deaths total in 3 weeks. Reverse it for an additional 20050 assuming no new infections from then on, and we will have 40100 deaths in 6 weeks.

I am not at all certain about my numbers above, please check my math.
The tighter the control of spread FROM TODAY ON, the closer the results will be to the math. The looser the control of spread, and that number will only be higher.

Why is the assumption that people outside of heavily infected areas have been resuming life as normal until today?

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #258 on: March 26, 2020, 01:32:29 PM »

Due to the lack of testing, we are flying blind with this outbreak. More Tests Equal More Confirmed Cases. Less confirmed cases does not mean less cases!
Deaths are deaths, though, they're a bit harder to hide: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-by-country.html


yeah but to be useful number of deaths reallly needs to be normalized. its not useful to compare number of deaths in us (350m people) to italy (60m people).

also, are we really testing everyone that dies with covid symptoms? without a test, cause of death could be pneumonia, heart failure or something else. when tests are so limited why waste a test on someone that is dead or going to die anyway? especially when that test could be used to test a health care worker or someone who lived in a group setting, potentially infecting many others.

Are all corpses tested for coronavirus?  If they're not, you might not know the real numbers.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/coronavirus-update-dead-covid19-doctors-hospitals


Ah.  So the answer to my question is a big screaming "HELLZ NO!" then.  The US is under reporting deaths from the virus.

nereo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #259 on: March 26, 2020, 01:37:41 PM »
Maybe go back to the off topic area if you want to bitch about that stuff

The 100-post minimum in the Off-Topic has simply spread the nonsense around to the rest of the forum. I'd say at least half the topics that are covering coronavirus belong in Off-Topic, including this one.
Nah. Most threads on here have devolved after 4-5 pages into politics and camps. This was true long before the 100 post off-topic minimum.

There’s even an Internet “rule” about such tendencies on forums.

Who’s going to bring up Hitler now?

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #260 on: March 26, 2020, 01:41:32 PM »
Maybe go back to the off topic area if you want to bitch about that stuff

The 100-post minimum in the Off-Topic has simply spread the nonsense around to the rest of the forum. I'd say at least half the topics that are covering coronavirus belong in Off-Topic, including this one.
Nah. Most threads on here have devolved after 4-5 pages into politics and camps. This was true long before the 100 post off-topic minimum.

There’s even an Internet “rule” about such tendencies on forums.

Who’s going to bring up Hitler now?

Rule 34? Hitler porn? It exists.  Trust me.

Paper Chaser

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #261 on: March 26, 2020, 02:06:39 PM »
Viewpoints like this make me realize how fucked we are as a society. We're facing a pandemic, and have an opportunity to come together for the common good and yet peoples first reaction is to look for a way to criticize the other side of the aisle. I think you're giving Trump WAY too much credit here.

Trump has spent four-plus years undercutting any sense of a shared society.  It's been us-versus-them from day one.  He doesn't get to magically recover what Dewey called the Great Society when he needs it and when it suits his political purposes.

There you go again, immediately blaming the other side. Its not anybody else's fault that you immediately viewed this as a "red vs blue" issue. Partisan politics and "us vs them" thinking started long before 2016, and I would argue, it's a large part of why Trump is unfortunately in the White House to begin with. As another poster pointed out, COVID doesn't care who you vote for. Most of this thread has done a good job of discussing something that tangentially relates to politics without devolving into partisan debates that just enflame things. There are more appropriate places here and elsewhere on the Internet to complain about leadership.

JGS1980

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #262 on: March 26, 2020, 02:10:41 PM »
Why is the assumption that people outside of heavily infected areas have been resuming life as normal until today?
[/quote]

You are correct. Edited.

PDXTabs

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #263 on: March 26, 2020, 02:14:06 PM »
As another poster pointed out, COVID doesn't care who you vote for.

You are right. I would further argue that public health response in a time of pandemic is not a red vs blue issue. It is however a competent vs incompetent issue. This isn't the George HW Bush administration, and the response has been incompetent at best.

Davnasty

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #264 on: March 26, 2020, 03:22:11 PM »
The Imperial College London study estimated there would be 2.2 million deaths if this thing is unchecked.  Even if the number is a third of that, that's still more Americans than were killed in all of the wars of the 20th century. 

I'm starting to see a lot of scientific pushback on the Imperial College Study's projections.  Specifically, many scientists think they drastically over-estimate the R0 factor of asymptomatic people, the required hospitalization rate, and the exponential nature of the virus.

The Imperial College Study predicted a *minimum* of 1.1 million deaths EVEN IF (!!!) we did three months of strict suppression.  Will be interesting to see if that pans out.

The prediction of 1.1 million deaths was based on a mitigation strategy which means targeted interventions including case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly.

Neither the UK or the US is still pursuing a mitigation strategy, they've opted for suppression. That's what we're doing right now.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Quote
Two fundamental strategies are possible:
(a) Suppression. Here  the  aim  is to  reduce  the  reproduction  number  (the  average  number  of secondary cases each case generates), R, to below 1and hence to reduce case numbers to low levels or  (as  for  SARS  or  Ebola)  eliminate  human-to-human  transmission. The  main  challenge  of  this approach is that NPIs (and drugs, if available) need to be maintained –at least intermittently-for as long as the virus is circulating in the human population, or until a vaccine becomes available. In the case of COVID-19, it will be at least a 12-18 months before a vaccine is available. Furthermore,there is no guarantee that initial vaccines will have high efficacy.
(b) Mitigation. Here  the aim is to  use  NPIs  (and vaccines  or  drugs,  if  available)  not  to interrupt transmission completely, but to reduce the health impact of an epidemic, akin to the strategy adopted by  some  US  cities  in  1918,  and  by  the  world  more  generally  in  the  1957,  1968  and  2009  influenza pandemics. In the 2009 pandemic, for instance, early supplies of vaccine were targeted at individuals with pre-existing medical conditions which put them at risk of more severe disease. In this scenario, population  immunity  builds  up  through  the  epidemic,  leading  to  an  eventual  rapid  decline  in  case numbers and transmission dropping to low levels.

caleb

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #265 on: March 26, 2020, 10:11:08 PM »

Ugggh so freaking tired of informative thoughtful threads being closed or destroyed by people coming in and trying to pin everything on trump, Republicans or whatever  party no different that the stupidity around the Obama birth certificate and whatever people decide to latch onto when a party they do not like is in office.

I get it you are not a fan of trump like most of us here but can we actually have a freaking discussion without saying stupid shit like trumpworld and trying to make the conversation partisan / inflammatory?

Maybe go back to the off topic area if you want to bitch about that stuff

And, I am very tired of technocratic language being used to provide cover for essentially political choices.

Any question that is about who gets what/when/where/why/how is political.

Ascribing partisan causes to that does not change it.

Pretending that it is not political is to participate in a charade.  Carry on, if you wish.

cerat0n1a

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #266 on: March 27, 2020, 06:24:08 AM »
Anecdote, which is not the singular of data:

Love that phrase.

Jon Bon

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #267 on: March 28, 2020, 06:38:01 AM »
Well me might have an actual answer now that we have some data. I much prefer math over stories just trying to get clicks.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Very interesting to see the how some states are much further along than others, and how some states have accomplished a flattening of the curve.

I cannot speak to their methods, data, or assumptions. But its a start.


ReadySetMillionaire

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #268 on: March 28, 2020, 08:13:34 AM »
If you need a laugh right now, watch this.

https://twitter.com/kenolin1/status/1242852430582341639?s=20

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #269 on: March 28, 2020, 08:20:19 AM »
Well me might have an actual answer now that we have some data. I much prefer math over stories just trying to get clicks.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Very interesting to see the how some states are much further along than others, and how some states have accomplished a flattening of the curve.

I cannot speak to their methods, data, or assumptions. But its a start.

Fascinating website.  Thanks for posting.

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #270 on: March 28, 2020, 08:30:22 AM »
If you need a laugh right now, watch this.

https://twitter.com/kenolin1/status/1242852430582341639?s=20
Thanks for the laugh, my wife and I were in tears we were laughing so hard.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

ReadySetMillionaire

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #271 on: March 28, 2020, 08:31:19 AM »
Well me might have an actual answer now that we have some data. I much prefer math over stories just trying to get clicks.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Very interesting to see the how some states are much further along than others, and how some states have accomplished a flattening of the curve.

I cannot speak to their methods, data, or assumptions. But its a start.

Fascinating website.  Thanks for posting.

The interesting thing about this is that it's way, way off what our governor and health director are saying (Ohio).

DeWine and Dr. Acton are using models that show that Ohio's surge won't come until mid-May, while this shows our surge in a couple weeks.

Regardless of policy position, we can only hope that the surge and low death numbers from the linked model here are correct.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #272 on: March 28, 2020, 08:56:24 AM »
Well me might have an actual answer now that we have some data. I much prefer math over stories just trying to get clicks.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Very interesting to see the how some states are much further along than others, and how some states have accomplished a flattening of the curve.

I cannot speak to their methods, data, or assumptions. But its a start.

Fascinating website.  Thanks for posting.

The interesting thing about this is that it's way, way off what our governor and health director are saying (Ohio).

DeWine and Dr. Acton are using models that show that Ohio's surge won't come until mid-May, while this shows our surge in a couple weeks.

Regardless of policy position, we can only hope that the surge and low death numbers from the linked model here are correct.

If you look in the methodology, for the study they're assuming that effective social distancing will be immediately enacted by everyone in the US.  This seems to be  a somewhat idealistic view to me but hopefully they're right.

ReadySetMillionaire

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #273 on: March 28, 2020, 08:57:53 AM »
Well me might have an actual answer now that we have some data. I much prefer math over stories just trying to get clicks.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Very interesting to see the how some states are much further along than others, and how some states have accomplished a flattening of the curve.

I cannot speak to their methods, data, or assumptions. But its a start.

Fascinating website.  Thanks for posting.

The interesting thing about this is that it's way, way off what our governor and health director are saying (Ohio).

DeWine and Dr. Acton are using models that show that Ohio's surge won't come until mid-May, while this shows our surge in a couple weeks.

Regardless of policy position, we can only hope that the surge and low death numbers from the linked model here are correct.

If you look in the methodology, for the study they're assuming that effective social distancing will be immediately enacted by everyone in the US.  This seems to be  a somewhat idealistic view to me but hopefully they're right.

Polls in Ohio are showing that somewhere between 85-90% are practicing social distancing. That's pretty darn good.  It will be interesting to see how much that prolongs. 

nereo

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #274 on: March 28, 2020, 09:03:56 AM »
Interesting bit on NPR about the effects of quarantined during the 1918 pandemic. As expected cities which took more comprehensive measures had far fewer deaths, but what was surprising was that these same cities did better economically over the following year.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #275 on: March 28, 2020, 09:53:01 AM »

If you look in the methodology, for the study they're assuming that effective social distancing will be immediately enacted by everyone in the US.  This seems to be  a somewhat idealistic view to me but hopefully they're right.

I can only speak to what I see personally, but I think the social distancing and staying at home is very widespread at this point. I'm not out and about and talking to people for obvious reasons.  But what I've observed is people taking this seriously.  I'm also using my wildlife test.  Which is admittedly weird, but seems to work.  What are the critters doing?  Well, our urban wildlife has been out and about to a remarkable extent.  Foxes are trotting about in my neighborhood at mid-day with nary a care in the world.  The large birds are out in force, including the predators.  There was an article yesterday showing coyotes that are chilling out during the day in San Francisco.  Critters generally avoid people. 

American GenX

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #276 on: March 28, 2020, 09:59:12 AM »
Well me might have an actual answer now that we have some data. I much prefer math over stories just trying to get clicks.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Very interesting to see the how some states are much further along than others, and how some states have accomplished a flattening of the curve.

I cannot speak to their methods, data, or assumptions. But its a start.

Fascinating website.  Thanks for posting.

The interesting thing about this is that it's way, way off what our governor and health director are saying (Ohio).

DeWine and Dr. Acton are using models that show that Ohio's surge won't come until mid-May, while this shows our surge in a couple weeks.

Regardless of policy position, we can only hope that the surge and low death numbers from the linked model here are correct.

If you look in the methodology, for the study they're assuming that effective social distancing will be immediately enacted by everyone in the US.  This seems to be  a somewhat idealistic view to me but hopefully they're right.

Polls in Ohio are showing that somewhere between 85-90% are practicing social distancing. That's pretty darn good.  It will be interesting to see how much that prolongs.

Polls may say that, but if they don't hang out in large groups, they probably consider themselves to be social distancing, despite frequently being closer than 6' to co-workers and others.  I know I'm still seeing people getting right next to each other where I work.  It's not easy to stay away from the people who suddenly come right up on you or when stuck in a meeting with them with no place to retreat to.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #277 on: March 28, 2020, 10:19:03 AM »
 

The interesting thing about this is that it's way, way off what our governor and health director are saying (Ohio).

DeWine and Dr. Acton are using models that show that Ohio's surge won't come until mid-May, while this shows our surge in a couple weeks.

Regardless of policy position, we can only hope that the surge and low death numbers from the linked model here are correct.
[/quote]


Polls in Ohio are showing that somewhere between 85-90% are practicing social distancing. That's pretty darn good.  It will be interesting to see how much that prolongs.
[/quote]

I live in Ohio.  Anecdotal evidence yes, but, I think people just like to think they are doing what they are suppose to be doing.  Who wants to admit they are exhibiting selfish behavior?  I work as a nurse in Ohio.  On my way to work on Thursday at 7AM, there seemed to be as many cars on the road as ever.  I mentioned it to my coworkers who all agreed.  I wondered where these people were going.  Later in the day one coworker mentioned about going to Lowes.  When I said, is Lowes is an essential business?  She said, yes of course it is- in case someone's water heater goes out.  I don't think she was buying a water heater.  She didn't mention it going out.  I do know that they are remodeling their house.  Another person was surfing the net for  VRBO rentals for her  daughter who was missing prom.  She thought that she had a few of her friends could go for a few days and bond to make up for their ruined senior year.  At the park, I see more people out and about, although recently I've noticed people being better about social distancing. 

JGS1980

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #278 on: March 28, 2020, 11:10:38 AM »
DeWine and Dr. Acton are using models that show that Ohio's surge won't come until mid-May, while this shows our surge in a couple weeks.

I live in Ohio.  Anecdotal evidence yes, but, I think people just like to think they are doing what they are suppose to be doing.  Who wants to admit they are exhibiting selfish behavior?  I work as a nurse in Ohio.  On my way to work on Thursday at 7AM, there seemed to be as many cars on the road as ever.  I mentioned it to my coworkers who all agreed.  I wondered where these people were going.  Later in the day one coworker mentioned about going to Lowes.  When I said, is Lowes is an essential business?  She said, yes of course it is- in case someone's water heater goes out.  I don't think she was buying a water heater.  She didn't mention it going out.  I do know that they are remodeling their house.  Another person was surfing the net for  VRBO rentals for her  daughter who was missing prom.  She thought that she had a few of her friends could go for a few days and bond to make up for their ruined senior year.  At the park, I see more people out and about, although recently I've noticed people being better about social distancing.
[/quote]

Perhaps Gov Dewine's projections assume 50-75% success at social distancing, which would delay peak till early May? Seems more realistic to me.

Luz

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #279 on: March 28, 2020, 01:32:13 PM »
Interesting bit on NPR about the effects of quarantined during the 1918 pandemic. As expected cities which took more comprehensive measures had far fewer deaths, but what was surprising was that these same cities did better economically over the following year.

Do you have a link?  Did they have any ideas as to why?

BostonBrit

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #280 on: March 28, 2020, 01:42:45 PM »
Everyone wil have their own tilt and lens to look at this through but here's the latest primary research from Imperial:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Global-Impact-26-03-2020.pdf

The key quote is:

We do not consider the wider social and economic costs of suppression, which will be high and may be disproportionately so in lower income settings. Moreover,suppression strategies will  need  to  be maintained in  some  manner until  vaccines or  effective treatments become available to avoid the risk of later epidemics.

In the table example at the back (page 11) they give the impact if lockdowns are maintained for 250 days. So I suppose that is an indication of how long you're talking which I believe was the OPs question.

the_fixer

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How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #281 on: March 28, 2020, 01:43:19 PM »
Interesting bit on NPR about the effects of quarantined during the 1918 pandemic. As expected cities which took more comprehensive measures had far fewer deaths, but what was surprising was that these same cities did better economically over the following year.

Do you have a link?  Did they have any ideas as to why?
Not sure why that would be surprising if the residents come out of it healthier than other city’s and had less financial impact to the individuals they can get back to work making stuff and spending sooner.

This will also be true for countries the faster they get out from under the virus and with the healthiest possible workforce the sooner they will be able to take the lead in jump starting their economy.

China will be back humming along Italy will really struggle and the US who know at this point.


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renata ricotta

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #282 on: March 28, 2020, 01:44:38 PM »
Interesting bit on NPR about the effects of quarantined during the 1918 pandemic. As expected cities which took more comprehensive measures had far fewer deaths, but what was surprising was that these same cities did better economically over the following year.

Do you have a link?  Did they have any ideas as to why?

You can do your own research to find the summarized MIT study, but I heard it on NPR this morning. https://www.npr.org/2020/03/28/823071188/what-is-the-economic-cost-of-social-distancing:

HORSLEY: Back then, they were shuttering schools and theaters. They outlawed public gatherings. Verner says some cities, like Omaha and Spokane, were more aggressive than others, like Boston and Pittsburgh, so it gives us kind of a natural experiment to see how that played out.

VERNER: And what did they find?

HORSLEY: Not surprisingly, the cities that acted quickly and forcefully to enforce what we would now call social distancing measures had fewer deaths from the flu. What's striking, though, Verner says is they also perform better economically. And that's because the pandemic itself takes a toll on the economy. People don't shop and spend the way they would otherwise in a raging pandemic and a serious outbreak like what we saw in 1918 leaves long-lasting economic scars.

VERNER: There doesn't appear to be a tradeoff between saving lives and supporting the economy. If anything, the data suggests that these cities that intervene more aggressively actually did better in terms of their economy in the year after the pandemics.

HORSLEY: Now Verner says the most aggressive cities left their social distancing policies in place for 100 days or more.


Luz

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #283 on: March 28, 2020, 02:03:53 PM »
Interesting bit on NPR about the effects of quarantined during the 1918 pandemic. As expected cities which took more comprehensive measures had far fewer deaths, but what was surprising was that these same cities did better economically over the following year.

Do you have a link?  Did they have any ideas as to why?
Not sure why that would be surprising if the residents come out of it healthier than other city’s and had less financial impact to the individuals they can get back to work making stuff and spending sooner.

This will also be true for countries the faster they get out from under the virus and with the healthiest possible workforce the sooner they will be able to take the lead in jump starting their economy.

China will be back humming along Italy will really struggle and the US who know at this point.


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But in the case of the Coronavirus, it would seem that the majority of working-age adults would be out of work for a few weeks if ill. Rather than months on end with lockdowns. And most (though not all) in this age group can expect to avoid serious illness, especially if they don't have underlying medical issues.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 02:42:07 PM by Luz »

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #284 on: March 28, 2020, 02:15:33 PM »
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561560

MIT Paper, not peer reviewed yet.

I'd say looking at Figure 6 that there is a weak association between social distancing, etc and subsequent economic growth. A more conservative way to interpret the data is that lockdowns do not appear to have long-term sequelae for high-mortality influenza epidemics.

Applicability to today's economy is unclear. On one hand, more jobs can be done remotely and our social safety net is better than it was in 1918. On the other hand, companies tend to have lower reserves (look up zombie companies) and are not as resilient as big manufacturers were. We also are a lot more economically dependent on luxury services (i.e. jacuzzi manufacturing, nail salons, gym classes) than we were in 1918.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 02:18:33 PM by Abe »

Luz

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #285 on: March 28, 2020, 02:22:06 PM »
Interesting bit on NPR about the effects of quarantined during the 1918 pandemic. As expected cities which took more comprehensive measures had far fewer deaths, but what was surprising was that these same cities did better economically over the following year.

Do you have a link?  Did they have any ideas as to why?

You can do your own research to find the summarized MIT study, but I heard it on NPR this morning. https://www.npr.org/2020/03/28/823071188/what-is-the-economic-cost-of-social-distancing:

HORSLEY: Back then, they were shuttering schools and theaters. They outlawed public gatherings. Verner says some cities, like Omaha and Spokane, were more aggressive than others, like Boston and Pittsburgh, so it gives us kind of a natural experiment to see how that played out.

VERNER: And what did they find?

HORSLEY: Not surprisingly, the cities that acted quickly and forcefully to enforce what we would now call social distancing measures had fewer deaths from the flu. What's striking, though, Verner says is they also perform better economically. And that's because the pandemic itself takes a toll on the economy. People don't shop and spend the way they would otherwise in a raging pandemic and a serious outbreak like what we saw in 1918 leaves long-lasting economic scars.

VERNER: There doesn't appear to be a tradeoff between saving lives and supporting the economy. If anything, the data suggests that these cities that intervene more aggressively actually did better in terms of their economy in the year after the pandemics.

HORSLEY: Now Verner says the most aggressive cities left their social distancing policies in place for 100 days or more.

Thanks! Does the rate of deaths per age matter in this analysis? From my limited understanding, the distribution of death in both the Coronavirus and the 1918 flu are/were uncommon. Death by diseases of this sort are usually better distributed among the very old, very young, pregnant women, and those with underlying medical conditions. In the 1918 flu, it was young adults who were hit hard. In the Coronavirus, kids age 0-5 and pregnant women seem to fare the same as those in young and middle adulthood.
It makes me wonder how impact to the economy compares (especially in terms of anxiety) if those who are healthy and in their working years can reasonably expect to avoid severe illness, despite Corona being quite contagious.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 02:37:35 PM by Luz »

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #286 on: March 28, 2020, 02:29:12 PM »
Interesting bit on NPR about the effects of quarantined during the 1918 pandemic. As expected cities which took more comprehensive measures had far fewer deaths, but what was surprising was that these same cities did better economically over the following year.

Do you have a link?  Did they have any ideas as to why?
Not sure why that would be surprising if the residents come out of it healthier than other city’s and had less financial impact to the individuals they can get back to work making stuff and spending sooner.

This will also be true for countries the faster they get out from under the virus and with the healthiest possible workforce the sooner they will be able to take the lead in jump starting their economy.

China will be back humming along Italy will really struggle and the US who know at this point.


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But in the case of the Coronavirus, it would seem that the majority of workers (those age 18-65) would be out of work for a few weeks if ill. Rather than months on end with lockdowns.
And if you let it fester how many people, tourists and ETC are going to want to go out and eat, spend, buy?

How many people are going to be in survival mode and afraid to spend money?


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afox

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #287 on: March 28, 2020, 02:59:46 PM »
In what alternate universe are people living in where they think if there were not a stay at home order no one would lose their jobs and life would return to normal next week? The number of cases would be rising faster, more people would be dying, people would not be rushing out to bars and restaurants, people would not be packing into airplanes, the stories about triaging at hospitals would be worse, etc, etc.

The virus is the problem, not the stay at home orders.


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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #288 on: March 28, 2020, 03:59:14 PM »

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #289 on: March 28, 2020, 06:47:05 PM »
Well me might have an actual answer now that we have some data. I much prefer math over stories just trying to get clicks.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Very interesting to see the how some states are much further along than others, and how some states have accomplished a flattening of the curve.

I cannot speak to their methods, data, or assumptions. But its a start.

I appreciate their effort.  I can say two things about the site:

1.  For my state (Idaho), they show that we have not implemented the first three items at the top, when in fact we have.  Perhaps their information is out of date.

2.  If ventilators = invasive ventilators, then the number of ventilators predicted to be needed does not square with Governor Cuomo's estimates.  The site says NY will need 4,141 ventilators.  Governor Cuomo stated he needed a minimum of 30,000 additional ventilators on 3/24 per https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #290 on: March 28, 2020, 08:25:07 PM »
If you need a laugh right now, watch this.

https://twitter.com/kenolin1/status/1242852430582341639?s=20

Haha, holy shit this is the best impression I've seen so far. In terms of the monologue, I'd guess it's about 95% potential reality and just 5% complete parody.

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #291 on: March 28, 2020, 10:25:34 PM »
Currently there’s about 1200 on ventilators in NYC, and the outbreak’s sequelae are really only just beginning by most estimates. Most hospitals are near capacity regardless. I think the 4900 estimate is too low based on the current situation.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #292 on: March 29, 2020, 05:12:32 AM »
Well me might have an actual answer now that we have some data. I much prefer math over stories just trying to get clicks.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Very interesting to see the how some states are much further along than others, and how some states have accomplished a flattening of the curve.

I cannot speak to their methods, data, or assumptions. But its a start.

I appreciate their effort.  I can say two things about the site:

1.  For my state (Idaho), they show that we have not implemented the first three items at the top, when in fact we have.  Perhaps their information is out of date.

2.  If ventilators = invasive ventilators, then the number of ventilators predicted to be needed does not square with Governor Cuomo's estimates.  The site says NY will need 4,141 ventilators.  Governor Cuomo stated he needed a minimum of 30,000 additional ventilators on 3/24 per https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us.

Ffs. Does it matter if you over supply in the current climate? Nope. Does it matter if you undersupply? YEP.

Jon Bon

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #293 on: March 29, 2020, 05:48:43 AM »
State leaders are not immune to hoarding medical supplies either.

Maybe I am choosing to give the study more weight just because I am an optimist, maybe that is foolish, but it helps me get through the day.

First time I have seen actual data on the spread and growth, other then just wild speculation thrown around. That is really all I was trying to point out to the thread. As this goes on our data will get better, therefore so will our predictions about how severe this can get.


Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #294 on: March 29, 2020, 06:16:58 AM »

And while everyone here in Australia is unemployed, anxious and fearful, and domestic violence is increasing... we are going to close playgrounds, but... keep bottle shops open.

Really?

'Straya! Trying to be as dumb as America since 1962.


BostonBrit

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #295 on: March 29, 2020, 06:20:46 AM »
2 issues that need to be understood.

1) World ex-China is not looking to eradicate this (genie is out the bottle) and are instead trying to slow spread to match constraining factor which equals, ventilators, ICU beds and healthcare workers.

Do some simple maths - which is all open to debate.

US population = 320m
Target exposure = 60%
Target people = 190m
Need ICU = 2.5% = 4.75m people
Need ventilator = 50% of above = 2.4m people
Average time on ventilator = 10 days - 24m ventilator days.
Number of ventilators in US = 175,000
Time to rotate through ventilators = 136 days = 4.5 months.

Loads of assumptions in the above that are a) open to debate and b) we are getting new information on daily and so will change. The big unknown, and why testing both pre and post, is understanding what the actual denominator is to understand if that ICU number is 2.5% or 15% as the Italian data would optically suggest (which implies cases is actually far higher IMO).

2) The problem is that those flatten the curve charts are directionally right. But the issue that's not been conveyed to the general public is that the two axis are logarithmic in nature.

So simplistically, and to answer the thread opening question, you're looking at an absolute minimum of 3 months but up to 9 months. All of this is based on data which can be impacted by medical developments, but these are at least 3 months off at this point.




OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #296 on: March 29, 2020, 07:34:59 AM »

And while everyone here in Australia is unemployed, anxious and fearful, and domestic violence is increasing... we are going to close playgrounds, but... keep bottle shops open.

Really?

'Straya! Trying to be as dumb as America since 1962.

If "bottle shop" is a place to buy alcohol (what we would call a liquor store), I also thought it was ridiculous to keep those stores open until someone pointed out to me that the last thing emergency rooms need is an influx of alcoholics going through withdrawal right now. I don't know if that was the rationale used by governments to keep them open.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #297 on: March 29, 2020, 07:39:40 AM »
Meh.  You can make hand sanitizer with vodka.


Which finally creates a use for the stuff.  :P

Laserjet3051

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #298 on: March 29, 2020, 07:49:54 AM »

And while everyone here in Australia is unemployed, anxious and fearful, and domestic violence is increasing... we are going to close playgrounds, but... keep bottle shops open.

Really?

'Straya! Trying to be as dumb as America since 1962.

If "bottle shop" is a place to buy alcohol (what we would call a liquor store), I also thought it was ridiculous to keep those stores open until someone pointed out to me that the last thing emergency rooms need is an influx of alcoholics going through withdrawal right now. I don't know if that was the rationale used by governments to keep them open.

The rationale underlying keeping "bottle shops" as well as rec. MJ dispensaries open is incredibly clear. In order for governments to keep  billions of people fully placated while forcing them into lockdown, the populous must be kept drunk, stoned, and drugged. Very effective strateggy for quelling the inevitable uprisings after prolonged quarantine.

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