Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 253750 times)

American GenX

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 482
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1800 on: May 11, 2020, 07:26:14 PM »

I say keep everything locked down until we have a reliable proven treatment or vaccine.  I'm willing to sacrifice for the 20%.

Someone mentioned not trusting anything coming out of China.  I don't trust anything coming out of the president's mouth.

js82

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 469
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1801 on: May 11, 2020, 07:33:07 PM »
Exactly, as I understood it, flattening the curve doesn't necessarily result in fewer infections, just more spread out so that the total number of sick people at the same time are always less than the number of beds available. The price you pay for this of course is that the virus remains a problem for that much longer, and the economic/social hardships and deaths that come with that. Even all those charts they show to demonstrate flattening the curve. The total area under the curve appears to be about the same.

Unless you're proposing completely eliminating the virus from the world small pox style, super lock down would merely delay everything.

There are really 2 "reasonable" approaches to this - and when I say reasonable, I mean rationally justifiable within a certain set of assumptions:

1) Be like Australia - knock the infections down to a very low level, with the assumption that you can manage cases going forward with contact tracing, etc. - with the end goal being to use this approach to hold out until a vaccine is developed(or it runs its course via herd immunity in the rest of the world).  The objective here is to achieve a good public health outcome, but to be able to reopen after the virus is knocked down to a low level that enables it to be controlled through means other than shutdowns.

2) Be like Sweden - assume that the endgame is herd immunity, and figure out how to get there with the fewest deaths and least economic damage along the way.

In both of these cases, there's still benefit to sustainable social distancing (masks, other things that reduce transmission without shutting down businesses), because it can help you achieve effective herd immunity with fewer total infections, and/or allow you to open more things without excess risk of transmission.

The problem is that an intermediate approach gets you the worst of both worlds - lots of infections and deaths, *and* lots of economic damage.  In fact, a long, half-baked lockdown with premature reopening probably will cause more economic damage(and be less effective from a public health perspective) than a shorter, harsher lockdown.  But this is exactly what we're doing in the USA - half-assing the lockdown and extending it for too long as a result, then reopening before we've really got cases under control.  It's a middle ground in a situation where the middle ground is the worst possible approach we could possibly take.

HBFIRE

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1249
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Huntington Beach, CA

Bloop Bloop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2140
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1803 on: May 11, 2020, 07:48:10 PM »
It's hard to ask 100% of the population to lock themselves down for the net benefit of 20%.

I'd feel like a monster if I was unwilling to make a small sacrifice for 20% of the population.

Is losing your job a small sacrifice?
Keeping your job but losing income?
Not being able to see family?
A combination of the above?

Bloop Bloop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2140
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1804 on: May 11, 2020, 07:50:44 PM »
Thatís a terrible analogy.

The car analogy is spot on. Bad drivers, speeding drivers, stupid drivers, drunk drivers kill people - not just themselves, but innocents - all the time. Ban cars, or simply lock all cars to 30km/h, and you'd save tens of thousands of American lives each year.

But we accept that death toll as the price we pay for being able to commute to work with relative efficiency.

Same sort of trade off mechanism.

HBFIRE

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1249
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Huntington Beach, CA
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1805 on: May 11, 2020, 07:58:14 PM »

Is losing your job a small sacrifice?
Keeping your job but losing income?
Not being able to see family?
A combination of the above?

Precisely.  It always surprises me that people are so confident that the right policy is a simple decision.  The fact that we are seeing the full gamut of approaches across the world is evidence that no one is really sure what the optimal strategy is.  To complicate things further, the right strategy for one location may not be the correct one for another.  The US is an extremely diverse country with a full range of population densities that likely requires nuanced approach depending on the location.  Blanket policy is not the right approach for a country as large and diverse as ours.

DadJokes

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1698
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1806 on: May 11, 2020, 08:45:34 PM »

Is losing your job a small sacrifice?
Keeping your job but losing income?
Not being able to see family?
A combination of the above?

Precisely.  It always surprises me that people are so confident that the right policy is a simple decision.  The fact that we are seeing the full gamut of approaches across the world is evidence that no one is really sure what the optimal strategy is.  To complicate things further, the right strategy for one location may not be the correct one for another.  The US is an extremely diverse country with a full range of population densities that likely requires nuanced approach depending on the location.  Blanket policy is not the right approach for a country as large and diverse as ours.

+1

When one state has nearly 1.8% of the population having tested positive while another state has had 0.02%, a one-size-fits-all approach just doesnít make sense.

Kris

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5668
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1807 on: May 11, 2020, 08:50:38 PM »

Is losing your job a small sacrifice?
Keeping your job but losing income?
Not being able to see family?
A combination of the above?

Precisely.  It always surprises me that people are so confident that the right policy is a simple decision.  The fact that we are seeing the full gamut of approaches across the world is evidence that no one is really sure what the optimal strategy is.  To complicate things further, the right strategy for one location may not be the correct one for another.  The US is an extremely diverse country with a full range of population densities that likely requires nuanced approach depending on the location.  Blanket policy is not the right approach for a country as large and diverse as ours.

+1

When one state has nearly 1.8% of the population having tested positive while another state has had 0.02%, a one-size-fits-all approach just doesnít make sense.

Sure would be nice to have some national leadership, though.

SuperNintendo Chalmers

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 41
  • Location: Colorado, USA
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1808 on: May 11, 2020, 08:56:11 PM »
here in very liberal puget sound, i observed a clear breakdown in all social distancing practices. i'm quite certain that most of america will be at this point within the next month. warm weather. locked in. not happening. sorry.

I'm in the deep south so there's already a high percentage of deniers here and this has been my experience as well. I work in an area that is heavily dependent on tourism and if I were to compare the past week with last years numbers I would be willing to bet that it's busier now even with the distancing guidelines. Memorial Day weekend is usually the kick off to the season but with people out of work and schools closed early, people are heading here to celebrate. A great majority have decided it's over and that we won or they are eager to go out and announce to the world what a big hoax it was to begin with.

 I wouldn't step foot in a restaurant right now, in fact, I've convinced my boss to let me do admin work from home so I don't have to go in. I work in a restaurant that's part of a hotel. The customers aren't wearing masks, half of the staff is incompetent at wearing them and even though the company laid out strict rules about it, nobody is enforcing it. This is in the number 1 rated restaurant for our area and it's fine dining. It's a total shit show and I'm thinking of quitting altogether to be honest. I'm totally freaked out at the level of flippancy that's happening right now.

Me too.  And similar to what others have said, I think the floodgates are opening and more and more people will openly flaunt/disregard transmission mitigation practices en masse, regardless of political affiliation.  There also seems to be a small but growing sense of ridicule/hostility directed to those who do wear facial coverings, etc., and this will increase as well. 

I think we're past the point where any logical discussion will change people's behavior.  It seems the only thing to do is to try to hunker down if you can and ride out the potential second waves/shutdowns, and try to keep your loved ones safe.  Great if you have the means to do so.  If you don't, or have to go to work and interact with people, not so much.

The floodgates are open because the government did not moderate their policies.  In Pennsylvania, the Governor is refusing to open up much of the state.   Several counties (Democratically run) have taken it upon themselves to open up anyway, so the Governor ó who with time seems to be less about science and more about his own irrational fears ó threatens funding, calls people cowards, etc. 

So the public is fixing the problem for the state politicians.  Whether it be PA or CA or anywhere else, the inability for the state government to act without moderation has caused a collapse in willingness to deal with their irrational and destructive policies.  They could have opened up a bit, here and there, given people and children a break, but no...problem solved.

Of course there will be a significant increase in death.   People will not tolerate a return to lockdown.

Well, Gov. Polis in CO has been one of the most aggressive in moving to reopen sooner in an attempt to achieve moderation, moving faster than many Republican-led states:   

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-are-reopening-why-democratic-gov-polis-doing-same-colorado-n1193681

And yet we still have what happened Sunday in Castle Rock.  I don't think what happened there could in any way be described as a reasonable attempt to fix a failure of governance.  It was just a mass of people congregating together without any attempt to mitigate transmission, and that's what I think we'll see more and more of, unfortunately. 


Abe

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1658
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1809 on: May 11, 2020, 09:47:54 PM »
At some point, when things are reopened, then there will be contact tracing and quarantine of symptomatic or infected individuals. Those quarantines are enforceable and are not optional. Antigen testing (detection of proteins produced for the virus, rather than antibodies to the virus or viral RNA tests) is coming online and will allow for rapid, widespread testing in a month. We have that capacity for influenza and streptococcus every year so it won't take long to retool for coronavirus testing. If everyone can hold their s*** together until that happens, we will be in good shape. I for one am going to keep distancing as much as possible (still have to work at the hospital) until that is available. We have an upward trend in hospitalized patients in my county. We're nowhere near capacity but come on, people can't avoid the beach for a few weekends or at least wear a mask when you're there? What are we, toddlers?
« Last Edit: May 11, 2020, 09:50:22 PM by Abe »

wanderlustNW

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 19
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1810 on: May 11, 2020, 10:01:38 PM »
you're there? What are we, toddlers?

Unfortunately from the likes of it people are just idiots. They are fed misinformation, don't believe science, and don't want to stay home. I'm doing the right thing and most of my neighbors are, but when I see on the news the reports of the beaches and other gatherings I feel awful for the ICU nurses and doctors who will have to work with these patients and when it's all done the hospital staff will have to go to therapy for PTSD.

Telecaster

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2315
  • Location: Seattle, WA
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1811 on: May 11, 2020, 10:28:05 PM »
Yup.  New Zealand, other controlled countries might experience second/third waves or economic damage related to shutdowns caused by second/third waves.  Sweden should not experience any additional waves if they establish a reasonable herd immunity.

Most of this we will only know in retrospect.

"If" being the operative word.  Thus far, Sweden has experienced equal economic damage.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-sweden-economy-to-contract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html

But the infection rate isn't any higher than their peer countries (and much lower than the US).  Which indicates they are not any closer to herd immunity. 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-per-million-people?year=2020-04-17

Yet, Sweden's fatality rate is triple that of peer countries.

So, at this point there no evidence Sweden is gaining any herd immunity advantage, or any economic advantage.  But at a much higher human cost.

These numbers will surely change, but as others have said, I'm rooting for them, but there is zero evidence their approach is providing any benefits.




Wrenchturner

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1259
  • Age: 32
  • Location: Canada
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1812 on: May 11, 2020, 10:34:36 PM »
Yup.  New Zealand, other controlled countries might experience second/third waves or economic damage related to shutdowns caused by second/third waves.  Sweden should not experience any additional waves if they establish a reasonable herd immunity.

Most of this we will only know in retrospect.

"If" being the operative word.  Thus far, Sweden has experienced equal economic damage.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-sweden-economy-to-contract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html

But the infection rate isn't any higher than their peer countries (and much lower than the US).  Which indicates they are not any closer to herd immunity. 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-per-million-people?year=2020-04-17

Yet, Sweden's fatality rate is triple that of peer countries.

So, at this point there no evidence Sweden is gaining any herd immunity advantage, or any economic advantage.  But at a much higher human cost.

These numbers will surely change, but as others have said, I'm rooting for them, but there is zero evidence their approach is providing any benefits.

Strange that their fatality rate is so much higher per capita.  I don't think that could have been anticipated.

HBFIRE

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1249
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Huntington Beach, CA
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1813 on: May 11, 2020, 10:34:49 PM »

But the infection rate isn't any higher than their peer countries (and much lower than the US).  Which indicates they are not any closer to herd immunity. 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-per-million-people?year=2020-04-17



You're looking at confirmed case data to determine infection rate?  This is not the right way to do that, as confirmed cases are mostly dependent on testing volumes and not actual infection penetration.  You will want to look at their latest serological studies .  The latest serological tests (5/4) showed a seroprevalance of ~ 10%.  There is an approximate 4 week delay from initial infection to antibody test result (at earliest), so actual seroprevalance today will be higher.  Sweden expects Stockholm to reach herd immunity this month.



« Last Edit: May 11, 2020, 11:01:02 PM by HBFIRE »

HBFIRE

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1249
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Huntington Beach, CA
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1814 on: May 11, 2020, 10:40:56 PM »


Strange that their fatality rate is so much higher per capita.  I don't think that could have been anticipated.

This is CFR (case fatality rate), not IFR (infection fatality rate).  Really important distinction as case fatality rate is mostly dependent on how many cases you identify which is largely dependent on testing volumes.  The more testing done, the lower the CFR. 

Sweden has a much lower test rate than its neighbors.  Sweden - 14,704/M vs Norway - 37,399/M - and Finland - 22,253/M.

The only way to determine the actual infection fatality rate is to have a better approximation of what the real denominator is (total infections).  This is done via serology (antibody) tests.

The estimated IFR in Sweden based on the serological test cited above is ~ 0.18%.   


This is a compilation of all the serological tests done to date along with the corresponding estimated IFR.  The median is 0.28%.  For comparison, common influenza has an IFR of ~ 0.1%.






« Last Edit: May 11, 2020, 11:37:26 PM by HBFIRE »

Bloop Bloop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2140
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1815 on: May 11, 2020, 10:45:35 PM »
you're there? What are we, toddlers?

Unfortunately from the likes of it people are just idiots. They are fed misinformation, don't believe science, and don't want to stay home. I'm doing the right thing and most of my neighbors are, but when I see on the news the reports of the beaches and other gatherings I feel awful for the ICU nurses and doctors who will have to work with these patients and when it's all done the hospital staff will have to go to therapy for PTSD.

The misinformation is often coming straight from the government.

The Victorien government (my state) has fed all sorts of information like:
- Schools should be closed (despite no evidence of children transmitting the disease in Australia) - they recently backflipped on this but much later than other states
- You shouldn't play golf or go fishing (no rationale whatsoever for this, since golf/fishing is more of a socially distant activity than, say, getting a haircut or buying a power tool, yet retail was allowed to continue merrily)
- You shouldn't drive for non-essential reasons (we were never even close to hospital capacity so this makes no sense whatsoever. It's not like I'm going to catch the virus from car exhaust.)

When you have that sort of government bullshit and paternalism, you can see why the populace is going to rebel.

former player

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5815
  • Location: Avalon
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1816 on: May 11, 2020, 11:42:01 PM »
Thatís a terrible analogy.

The car analogy is spot on. Bad drivers, speeding drivers, stupid drivers, drunk drivers kill people - not just themselves, but innocents - all the time. Ban cars, or simply lock all cars to 30km/h, and you'd save tens of thousands of American lives each year.

But we accept that death toll as the price we pay for being able to commute to work with relative efficiency.

Same sort of trade off mechanism.
It's a bad analogy because it ignores decades of work and expense and continuing built in costs for vehicles, roads and driver testing which have reduced the toll of death and serious injury to its current level.  It fails to recognise how much worse things would be without those investments.

Bloop Bloop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2140
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1817 on: May 11, 2020, 11:49:40 PM »
Just like our healthcare system has all sorts of built in mechanisms to try to keep the risk to patients from diseases and conditions as low as possible. Nonetheless there is still a risk of death and serious injury from transmittable diseases. Things would be much worse without the improvements in healthcare that we've seen.


former player

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5815
  • Location: Avalon
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1818 on: May 12, 2020, 12:09:56 AM »
Just like our healthcare system has all sorts of built in mechanisms to try to keep the risk to patients from diseases and conditions as low as possible. Nonetheless there is still a risk of death and serious injury from transmittable diseases. Things would be much worse without the improvements in healthcare that we've seen.
But the comparison wasn't between road transport systems and healthcare systems, it was between road transport systems and the system (or lack of it) for dealing with COVID-19.

js82

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 469
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1819 on: May 12, 2020, 05:16:59 AM »
Coronavirus And The Fallacy Of The False Dilemma

I'm not certain if this was in reference to my post above - it seems as it may have been, but I think that article itself is guilty of exactly what it's chastising others over - i.e. over-simplifing and painting with too broad a brush.  There are still two macro-level philosophies - bring cases low and keep them low via contact tracing as you reopen(this is *not* lockdown until a vaccine), or minimize damage on the way to herd immunity, but the nuts-and-bolts details of accomplishing either approach can vary widely(due in particular to large differences in initial infection rate and density in various locations).

My only point is this:  In the U.S. we have not behaved in a manner that's consistent with a single philosophy, and that's making this more of a mess for us than it otherwise would have been.

To complicate things further, the right strategy for one location may not be the correct one for another.  The US is an extremely diverse country with a full range of population densities that likely requires nuanced approach depending on the location.  Blanket policy is not the right approach for a country as large and diverse as ours.

I agree that different areas (particularly as a function of density and starting infection rate) have different "optimal" policies with respect to fighting this virus - however I think there still needs to be an over-arching national "strategy" for how we want to attack this problem - and within that, localities figure out how to move in that direction based on the particulars in their area.  Right now in the US a coherent, macro-level strategy has not been established, and as a result I think the only likely end-game for us is some variation of the herd immunity approach, based on the way many locations are opening up before they truly have infections under control.

Seadog

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 259
  • Age: 37
  • Location: Halifax, NS
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1820 on: May 12, 2020, 05:58:31 AM »
It's hard to ask 100% of the population to lock themselves down for the net benefit of 20%.

I'd feel like a monster if I was unwilling to make a small sacrifice for 20% of the population.

Is losing your job a small sacrifice?
Keeping your job but losing income?
Not being able to see family?
A combination of the above?

The vast majority of people in the "lock it down till there's a vaccine" camp seem to be there predicated on the assumption that their income won't be interrupted for 18 months or however long it takes.

Much like that politician (forget who) who said "you should only get a vote to go to war or not if you have a family member in the military", similarly the people who ave to actually make real sacrifices (ie no income/no support programs) are the one's who should get more of a vote here. 

The estimates in Canada are that 40% of small family businesses will never reopen. Is losing a business that has been in the family for literally generations a small sacrifice?

Paper Chaser

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 323
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1821 on: May 12, 2020, 06:04:23 AM »
The Ohio Department of Health announced yesterday that they had a handful of symptomatic patients back in January that have now been confirmed via antibody tests to have had COVID. The first confirmed case in the state was March 9th:

https://www.wkyc.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/dr-amy-acton-antibody-testing-shows-coronavirus-has-been-in-ohio-since-january/95-b78f9efa-bed4-4c02-898c-adc3e6846c9f

The first confirmed case in the US was in Washington state January 21. So the virus either traveled from Washington to Ohio in no time, where it infected multiple people in multiple counties, or it's been spreading in various travel hubs in the US for weeks longer than anybody really knew (Seattle, SF, LA, NYC, Boston, Atlanta, etc)

This probably indicates that the only way a New Zealand type approach would've worked for the US would've been to have done a nationwide, hard lockdown in December or maybe early January at the latest. And then of course we would've needed millions of tests and contact tracing ability (which nobody had at the time). NZ is a small island nation (both in land area and population). They have just 5 international airports to monitor. They have no land borders to monitor. Under normal circumstances, NZ has something like 3 million travelers annually through those 5 airports. While the US has something like 200k foreign travelers per day through the nation's borders and another 125k Americans traveling internationally. Logistically it's far more feasible to do a hard lockdown, and have the testing ability available on short notice in NZ's scenario than it would be for a place like the US.

Seadog

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 259
  • Age: 37
  • Location: Halifax, NS
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1822 on: May 12, 2020, 06:23:54 AM »
Thatís a terrible analogy.

The car analogy is spot on. Bad drivers, speeding drivers, stupid drivers, drunk drivers kill people - not just themselves, but innocents - all the time. Ban cars, or simply lock all cars to 30km/h, and you'd save tens of thousands of American lives each year.

But we accept that death toll as the price we pay for being able to commute to work with relative efficiency.

Same sort of trade off mechanism.

The thing I think a lot of people refuse to acknowledge, is that every single action in life is a trade off of some sort. There's a cost to everything. Financial, social, environmental. Sometimes the cost is borne by you, sometimes it's borne by others, sometimes it's borne by society as a whole. Unfortunately, because people are for the most part short sighted and self-interested, their opinions on what should be done will largely reflect that. I try my best to step outside my personal bubble, but no one is immune.

Take a look at the division between the "open it now" and the "lock it down till there's a vaccine" crowds. I would wager good money that the former have suffered real economic harm in the form of non-subsidized wage loss or as an owner of a small business, and I would wager that members of the latter group have seen no interruption, or possibly even a bit of a boon to their financial situation.

When such are the bases of many people's opinions (ie "what's good for ME"), any serious discussion about what's best for society as a whole is impossible.

marty998

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7039
  • Location: Sydney, Oz
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1823 on: May 12, 2020, 06:41:26 AM »
you're there? What are we, toddlers?

Unfortunately from the likes of it people are just idiots. They are fed misinformation, don't believe science, and don't want to stay home. I'm doing the right thing and most of my neighbors are, but when I see on the news the reports of the beaches and other gatherings I feel awful for the ICU nurses and doctors who will have to work with these patients and when it's all done the hospital staff will have to go to therapy for PTSD.

The misinformation is often coming straight from the government.

The Victorien government (my state) has fed all sorts of information like:
- Schools should be closed (despite no evidence of children transmitting the disease in Australia) - they recently backflipped on this but much later than other states
- You shouldn't play golf or go fishing (no rationale whatsoever for this, since golf/fishing is more of a socially distant activity than, say, getting a haircut or buying a power tool, yet retail was allowed to continue merrily)
- You shouldn't drive for non-essential reasons (we were never even close to hospital capacity so this makes no sense whatsoever. It's not like I'm going to catch the virus from car exhaust.)

When you have that sort of government bullshit and paternalism, you can see why the populace is going to rebel.

Bloop you really should run for Premier if you think you can do a better job.

You seem to think that only children go to schools. Do you understand how many adults are involved in keeping a school running on a day to day basis? Hint it's not just the teachers.

- cleaners and maintenance staff
- tradies fixing toilets, playground equipment, lights and electrical equipment, IT staff constantly on call for laptops and networks.
- mums and dads who run the tuckshop
- people who run the uniform shop
- admin staff who run the office, secretaries for the principals and leadership groups
- counselors, learning support teachers, volunteer tutors, librarians.
- couriers and delivery vans constantly dropping off food, stationary and classroom supplies

And then you have the hundreds of parents waiting in the playground at 3pm to pick up their little darlings because the buses are not running.

No, you cannot just keep the schools running through a pandemic when every adult has to maintain their distance. It's just not possible.

Golf/fishing, fine. I have no issues with that. Go for your life. But schools? You don't seem to have a clue.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2020, 06:43:26 AM by marty998 »

frugalnacho

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4220
  • Age: 37
  • Location: Madison Heights, Michigan
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1824 on: May 12, 2020, 06:57:25 AM »
I feel like a broken record because I've said this a dozen times, but economic damage was a forgone conclusion.  It's the virus causing the economic damage, not the lockdown.  I've been bitching plenty on the forum about my area (Metro Detroit) disregarding the lockdown orders and social distancing guidelines because some (10-15%) of the population is completely disregarding it, but that means 85-90% are complying with it voluntarily.  If the lockdown was lifted in its entirety plenty of people would still comply resulting in a defacto lockdown.  I don't care if they lift the restrictions today, I'm not going to an airport, I'm not going to a concert or sporting event, and I'm not going to sit in a crowded restaurant, and I have a feeling that's also true for a lot of other reasonable people.  All of those venues are going to suffer economically no matter what.

OtherJen

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3621
  • Location: Metro Detroit
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1825 on: May 12, 2020, 07:18:10 AM »
I feel like a broken record because I've said this a dozen times, but economic damage was a forgone conclusion.  It's the virus causing the economic damage, not the lockdown.  I've been bitching plenty on the forum about my area (Metro Detroit) disregarding the lockdown orders and social distancing guidelines because some (10-15%) of the population is completely disregarding it, but that means 85-90% are complying with it voluntarily.  If the lockdown was lifted in its entirety plenty of people would still comply resulting in a defacto lockdown.  I don't care if they lift the restrictions today, I'm not going to an airport, I'm not going to a concert or sporting event, and I'm not going to sit in a crowded restaurant, and I have a feeling that's also true for a lot of other reasonable people.  All of those venues are going to suffer economically no matter what.

Thank you. I donít understand why people still think that things will snap back to pre-pandemic normal once the shutdown orders expire (or expect that there wonít be another round when the second wave hits).

T-Money$

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 218
  • Location: New York
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1826 on: May 12, 2020, 07:28:05 AM »
I feel like a broken record because I've said this a dozen times, but economic damage was a forgone conclusion.  It's the virus causing the economic damage, not the lockdown.  I've been bitching plenty on the forum about my area (Metro Detroit) disregarding the lockdown orders and social distancing guidelines because some (10-15%) of the population is completely disregarding it, but that means 85-90% are complying with it voluntarily.  If the lockdown was lifted in its entirety plenty of people would still comply resulting in a defacto lockdown.  I don't care if they lift the restrictions today, I'm not going to an airport, I'm not going to a concert or sporting event, and I'm not going to sit in a crowded restaurant, and I have a feeling that's also true for a lot of other reasonable people.  All of those venues are going to suffer economically no matter what.

Already been to an airport (they are empty) and sat at restaurants and enjoyed myself. 

You are certainly free to do as you choose for however long you want, but I think people are increasingly having an issue with being restricted when they don’t feel they are at risk. 

Because we all have different risks and medical histories it’s reasonable to stay at home, but it is also reasonable to continue life as if nothing happened.  The one size fits all approach and curtailing the ability of reasonable people to make their own risk assessment is increasingly unlikely to work out.

I strongly disagree the economic damage would have occurred at such a level if the response from the government and media was more muted. 

I think the virus will continue for the foreseeable future, the best course of action would be to learn to live with it.  In my area the overwhelming majority of deaths have been in nursing homes, while unfortunate this isn’t a tragedy.   

If we were truly “all in this together” and the government was able to keep its promises I wonder if people would be more apt to work together.  However, when governments fail to open some businesses, schools and parks when much of the western world is opening up, well then we clearly aren’t all in this together...so oh well.  Just more failed and dishonest government policy that is arbitrarily destructive.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2020, 07:40:49 AM by T-Money$ »

Bloop Bloop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2140
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1827 on: May 12, 2020, 07:36:08 AM »
you're there? What are we, toddlers?

Unfortunately from the likes of it people are just idiots. They are fed misinformation, don't believe science, and don't want to stay home. I'm doing the right thing and most of my neighbors are, but when I see on the news the reports of the beaches and other gatherings I feel awful for the ICU nurses and doctors who will have to work with these patients and when it's all done the hospital staff will have to go to therapy for PTSD.

The misinformation is often coming straight from the government.

The Victorien government (my state) has fed all sorts of information like:
- Schools should be closed (despite no evidence of children transmitting the disease in Australia) - they recently backflipped on this but much later than other states
- You shouldn't play golf or go fishing (no rationale whatsoever for this, since golf/fishing is more of a socially distant activity than, say, getting a haircut or buying a power tool, yet retail was allowed to continue merrily)
- You shouldn't drive for non-essential reasons (we were never even close to hospital capacity so this makes no sense whatsoever. It's not like I'm going to catch the virus from car exhaust.)

When you have that sort of government bullshit and paternalism, you can see why the populace is going to rebel.

Bloop you really should run for Premier if you think you can do a better job.

You seem to think that only children go to schools. Do you understand how many adults are involved in keeping a school running on a day to day basis? Hint it's not just the teachers.

- cleaners and maintenance staff
- tradies fixing toilets, playground equipment, lights and electrical equipment, IT staff constantly on call for laptops and networks.
- mums and dads who run the tuckshop
- people who run the uniform shop
- admin staff who run the office, secretaries for the principals and leadership groups
- counselors, learning support teachers, volunteer tutors, librarians.
- couriers and delivery vans constantly dropping off food, stationary and classroom supplies

And then you have the hundreds of parents waiting in the playground at 3pm to pick up their little darlings because the buses are not running.

No, you cannot just keep the schools running through a pandemic when every adult has to maintain their distance. It's just not possible.

Golf/fishing, fine. I have no issues with that. Go for your life. But schools? You don't seem to have a clue.

I am sure I could do a better job than Andrews. It wouldn't be hard. He's the sole hold-out on schools. Yeah, schools involve parents dropping off kids - well, surely that's no more heavy-duty contact than, you know, entire AFL squads training together, lol. Or hairdressing salons being fully operational this whole time. Or bunnings. Or take away food shops delivering orders all day every day. But no, gotta lock up the schools. I guess if schools generated as much revenue as the AFL they'd have been open every day too.

And I'm not saying that there should have been no restrictions whatsoever on schools, but that they should have not locked down as hard, and they should open up asap. Although Dan pre-empted me by announcing today that in fact they are opening up in 2 weeks. You might recall that until two days ago the timeframe was "not before the end of term 2" i.e. not before late June or whenever term 3 starts.

hops

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 391
  • Location: United States
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1828 on: May 12, 2020, 07:40:33 AM »
Tough read about the tragedy that befell a church that believed it had gotten social distancing right.

https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/i-would-do-anything-for-a-do-over-calgary-church-hopes-others-learn-from-their-tragic-covid-19-experience-1.4933461

Seadog

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 259
  • Age: 37
  • Location: Halifax, NS
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1829 on: May 12, 2020, 07:54:49 AM »
I feel like a broken record because I've said this a dozen times, but economic damage was a forgone conclusion.  It's the virus causing the economic damage, not the lockdown.  I've been bitching plenty on the forum about my area (Metro Detroit) disregarding the lockdown orders and social distancing guidelines because some (10-15%) of the population is completely disregarding it, but that means 85-90% are complying with it voluntarily.  If the lockdown was lifted in its entirety plenty of people would still comply resulting in a defacto lockdown.  I don't care if they lift the restrictions today, I'm not going to an airport, I'm not going to a concert or sporting event, and I'm not going to sit in a crowded restaurant, and I have a feeling that's also true for a lot of other reasonable people.  All of those venues are going to suffer economically no matter what.

Already been to an airport (they are empty) and sat at restaurants and enjoyed myself. 

You are certainly free to do as you choose for however long you want, but I think people are increasingly having an issue with being restricted when they donít feel they are at risk. 

Because we all have different risks and medical histories itís reasonable to stay at home, but it is also reasonable to continue life as if nothing happened.  The one size fits all approach and curtailing the ability of reasonable people to make their own risk assessment is increasingly unlikely to work out.

I strongly disagree the economic damage would have occurred at such a level if the response from the government and media was more muted. 

I think the virus will continue for the foreseeable future, the best course of action would be to learn to live with it.  In my area the overwhelming majority of deaths have been in nursing homes, while unfortunate this isnít a tragedy.   

If we were truly ďall in this togetherĒ and the government was able to keep its promises I wonder if people would be more apt to work together.  However, when governments fail to open some businesses, schools and parks when much of the western world is opening up, well then we clearly arenít all in this together...so oh well.  Just more failed and dishonest government policy that is arbitrarily destructive.

I largely blame the hyper-cautious government, and the wall-to-wall fear based media for the economic damage. The gov't is doing everything they can so that no one can point their finger at them and pin even a single death on their shoulders. The media is doing everything in their power to scare the bejesus out of people to get ratings.

At least in Canada, surveys said something like a full 2/3rds of people are convinced they're going to catch it, and they felt it will likely be serious to the point of permanent damage or death. Meanwhile, as a guy in his 30s, the likelihood of catching it, and then dying from it is around 1 in a million (at least based on my provinces numbers - certainly well below the risk of driving). Despite the gov't starting to reopen things, I still have friends my age who haven't been more than a block from their home in 7 weeks, and others who refuse to be in the same room with more than one other person - this despite the gov't saying gatherings of up to 5 were fine, and more as long as it's for an essential reason like work - provided 6' was maintained.

Don't misread me, this virus is real, serious, and reasonable measures need to happen, but I feel the response and palpable fear (particularly among very low risk groups) is completely out of proportion to the threat. The paranoia is bordering on London blitz levels.

The virus didn't wreck the economy, fear and hysteria, abetted by the gov't and media did. 

JGS1980

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 435
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1830 on: May 12, 2020, 07:55:10 AM »
Exactly, as I understood it, flattening the curve doesn't necessarily result in fewer infections, just more spread out so that the total number of sick people at the same time are always less than the number of beds available. The price you pay for this of course is that the virus remains a problem for that much longer, and the economic/social hardships and deaths that come with that. Even all those charts they show to demonstrate flattening the curve. The total area under the curve appears to be about the same.

Unless you're proposing completely eliminating the virus from the world small pox style, super lock down would merely delay everything.

There are really 2 "reasonable" approaches to this - and when I say reasonable, I mean rationally justifiable within a certain set of assumptions:

1) Be like Australia - knock the infections down to a very low level, with the assumption that you can manage cases going forward with contact tracing, etc. - with the end goal being to use this approach to hold out until a vaccine is developed(or it runs its course via herd immunity in the rest of the world).  The objective here is to achieve a good public health outcome, but to be able to reopen after the virus is knocked down to a low level that enables it to be controlled through means other than shutdowns.

2) Be like Sweden - assume that the endgame is herd immunity, and figure out how to get there with the fewest deaths and least economic damage along the way.

In both of these cases, there's still benefit to sustainable social distancing (masks, other things that reduce transmission without shutting down businesses), because it can help you achieve effective herd immunity with fewer total infections, and/or allow you to open more things without excess risk of transmission.

The problem is that an intermediate approach gets you the worst of both worlds - lots of infections and deaths, *and* lots of economic damage.  In fact, a long, half-baked lockdown with premature reopening probably will cause more economic damage(and be less effective from a public health perspective) than a shorter, harsher lockdown.  But this is exactly what we're doing in the USA - half-assing the lockdown and extending it for too long as a result, then reopening before we've really got cases under control.  It's a middle ground in a situation where the middle ground is the worst possible approach we could possibly take.

JS28 said it much better than I could. Either go all out in one way, or all out in another way. Make it a National Strategy, and lets see what happens. The US right now has no coherent strategy, so is thus in the middle, and will suffer the worst of both worlds (economy AND illness).

HBFIRE

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1249
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Huntington Beach, CA
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1831 on: May 12, 2020, 08:29:29 AM »

There are still two macro-level philosophies - bring cases low and keep them low via contact tracing as you reopen(this is *not* lockdown until a vaccine), or minimize damage on the way to herd immunity, but the nuts-and-bolts details of accomplishing either approach can vary widely(due in particular to large differences in initial infection rate and density

Not sure I agree.  The purpose of lockdown for USA was to not overwhelm our hospitals.  It didnít stop spread, it just created a backlog of infections - it was essentially a temporary pause button.  To actually stop the virus you would need to contain it very early - and even if this is done, it will re-emerge eventually particularly in an international country with open borders as large as USA.  I wish that Fauci would admit our strategy is herd immunity. I guess heís afraid of the response and backlash of actually stating it.

« Last Edit: May 12, 2020, 10:04:50 AM by HBFIRE »

cerat0n1a

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1912
  • Location: England
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1832 on: May 12, 2020, 08:34:32 AM »
I am sure I could do a better job than Andrews. It wouldn't be hard. He's the sole hold-out on schools. Yeah, schools involve parents dropping off kids - well, surely that's no more heavy-duty contact than, you know, entire AFL squads training together, lol.

At a guess, there's less than 1000 people total in those AFL squads, and they're made up of very fit young people whose health is already monitored pretty carefully. That seems like several orders of magnitude lower risk profile in terms of opportunities for virus spread compared to (wild guess) ~2000 schools in Victoria, each one of which would involve hundreds or thousands of people interacting daily. I think there's a pretty strong case for having schools open, as it happens, but that's a way bigger decision than letting small numbers of professional athletes play in empty stadia for the tv cameras.

fattest_foot

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 844
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1833 on: May 12, 2020, 08:46:00 AM »
I think that former generations who dealt with things like world wars would laugh their asses off at how quickly Americans now excuse themselves for 'reaching their limits'.  If people weren't dying, it really would be comic.

Up to 33 million unemployed now. Maybe YOU haven't reached your limit, but plenty of people are impacted by this pretty negatively.

But don't worry, eventually when we're all unemployed, we can social distance indefinitely. At least, until we're all crowded around government trucks giving us grains and water.

MudPuppy

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 587
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1834 on: May 12, 2020, 08:51:16 AM »
Isnít that kind of fatalism the same thing you are criticizing us for?

JGS1980

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 435
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1835 on: May 12, 2020, 08:55:57 AM »

There are still two macro-level philosophies - bring cases low and keep them low via contact tracing as you reopen(this is *not* lockdown until a vaccine), or minimize damage on the way to herd immunity, but the nuts-and-bolts details of accomplishing either approach can vary widely(due in particular to large differences in initial infection rate and density

Not sure I agree.  The purpose of lockdown for US was to not overwhelm our hospitals.  It didnít stop spread, it just created a backlog of infections - it was essentially a temporary pause button.  To actually stop the virus you would need to contain it very early - and even if this is done, it will re-emerge eventually particularly in an international country with open borders as large as USA.  I wish that Fauci would admit our strategy is herd immunity - I guess heís afraid of the response and backlash of actually stating it.

I think we agree more than we disagree HBFIRE.

Not overwhelming the hospitals was one of the primary goals so that we could avoid unnecessary deaths in our most vulnerable populations. That end goal remains the same.

We failed early, I agree with that. We won't achieve a New Zealand or Australia (or even Germany) level of success.

In regards to USA's open borders, I see US States more like Europe's individual countries with more interstate movement. Remember the EU has had porous borders for decades as well.

Look at the variability in Europe from country to country. Compare Belgium/France/UK to Germany/Austria/Switzerland. Very different outcomes despite a lot of similarities in form of government and western culture. I don't count Italy and Spain because they were hit unbelievably hard very early before they really had a chance to adapt.

My conclusion is that details matter and the quality of leadership really matters.

My solution is to do contact testing and tracing down to the level of each individual county or municipality to achieve best possible economic reopening with the least amount of unnecessary suffering and death. Fine, we don't have enough tests. Well, use the tests we have and trace like madmen. Do something as opposed to just letting it go. I think Fauci has not given up on this. I think Trump has just put up his arms in surrender because it's just too darn hard to do, and because he doesn't see the possibility of getting back to normal before the November election.

JGS1980

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 435
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1836 on: May 12, 2020, 09:00:41 AM »
I would also add that the Swedish experiment has taught us one valuable lesson so far:

The economy, in at least the short term, is going to be shot ANYWAY, regardless of the approach we take. I believe many early posters on this thread were correct on this prediction. So....we may as well refocus efforts on preventing unnecessary deaths.

HBFIRE

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1249
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Huntington Beach, CA
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1837 on: May 12, 2020, 09:04:33 AM »

We failed early, I agree with that. We won't achieve a New Zealand or Australia (or even Germany) level of success.

These were successful in containment mostly because they have a much easier capability to contain borders, I don't think these two cases are a good comparison for the US for many reasons -- vastly smaller populations and population densities with island geography and warm/humid climate.  There are several pieces of evidence that weather was an important factor at play here.


Look at the variability in Europe from country to country. Compare Belgium/France/UK to Germany/Austria/Switzerland. Very different outcomes despite a lot of similarities in form of government and western culture. I don't count Italy and Spain because they were hit unbelievably hard very early before they really had a chance to adapt.

I believe it's much too soon to know what the outcome is, as the virus is still finishing just its first wave.  Even countries with successful first wave containment, we don't know the long term outcome just yet.  What we learned from the 1918 influenza pandemic (Spanish flu) is that first wave suppression causes much larger second waves.   We won't know long term outcomes for quite some time.




« Last Edit: May 12, 2020, 09:20:40 AM by HBFIRE »

Bloop Bloop

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2140
  • Location: Melbourne, Australia
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1838 on: May 12, 2020, 09:16:01 AM »
I am sure I could do a better job than Andrews. It wouldn't be hard. He's the sole hold-out on schools. Yeah, schools involve parents dropping off kids - well, surely that's no more heavy-duty contact than, you know, entire AFL squads training together, lol.

At a guess, there's less than 1000 people total in those AFL squads, and they're made up of very fit young people whose health is already monitored pretty carefully. That seems like several orders of magnitude lower risk profile in terms of opportunities for virus spread compared to (wild guess) ~2000 schools in Victoria, each one of which would involve hundreds or thousands of people interacting daily. I think there's a pretty strong case for having schools open, as it happens, but that's a way bigger decision than letting small numbers of professional athletes play in empty stadia for the tv cameras.

AFL players also happen to be some of the biggest socialisers (to use a euphemism) in the world. No chance they will all just limit themselves to training. They will be out in the community in one form or another. Look at the scandals that have already befallen multiple AFL teams' players.

dignam

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 363
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1839 on: May 12, 2020, 09:18:23 AM »
There is also definitely the argument that the herd immunity threshold is much, much lower than what it would be for the flu, for example.  We've been told it's around 60%-70% for COVID-19.  It could very well be around 20% HIT for COVID-19 if the models used take into account coefficient of variance.  This can and should drastically change our policy decisions.  Check out this and the attachment.  There are other articles that are stating basically the same thing as well:

https://judithcurry-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/judithcurry.com/2020/05/10/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought/amp/?usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D&amp_js_v=0.1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fjudithcurry.com%2F2020%2F05%2F10%2Fwhy-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought%2F

HBFIRE

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1249
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Huntington Beach, CA
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1840 on: May 12, 2020, 09:30:07 AM »
There is also definitely the argument that the herd immunity threshold is much, much lower than what it would be for the flu, for example.  We've been told it's around 60%-70% for COVID-19.  It could very well be around 20% HIT for COVID-19 if the models used take into account coefficient of variance.  This can and should drastically change our policy decisions.  Check out this and the attachment.  There are other articles that are stating basically the same thing as well:


Yes, "herd immunity"is induced when the most common contact points are all immune even though the majority of the greater population are not immune.

Essentially, the disease has to flow through bottlenecks to reach everyone. The bottlenecks are closed by immunity and the transmission breaks.

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 16649
  • Age: 39
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1841 on: May 12, 2020, 09:36:04 AM »
Do we have evidence yet that exposure to Covid-19 actually prevents re-infection?  That's what all the 'herd-immunity' discussions really rely on.  My understanding was that this is suspected but has not yet been proven.

dandarc

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4034
  • Age: 37
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1842 on: May 12, 2020, 09:39:31 AM »
@dignam - hope Nic Lewis is doing better statistical analysis than he was way back in 2015.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-to-misinterpret-climate-change-research/

SunnyDays

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1324
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1843 on: May 12, 2020, 09:42:32 AM »
I feel like a broken record because I've said this a dozen times, but economic damage was a forgone conclusion.  It's the virus causing the economic damage, not the lockdown.  I've been bitching plenty on the forum about my area (Metro Detroit) disregarding the lockdown orders and social distancing guidelines because some (10-15%) of the population is completely disregarding it, but that means 85-90% are complying with it voluntarily.  If the lockdown was lifted in its entirety plenty of people would still comply resulting in a defacto lockdown.  I don't care if they lift the restrictions today, I'm not going to an airport, I'm not going to a concert or sporting event, and I'm not going to sit in a crowded restaurant, and I have a feeling that's also true for a lot of other reasonable people.  All of those venues are going to suffer economically no matter what.

Already been to an airport (they are empty) and sat at restaurants and enjoyed myself. 

You are certainly free to do as you choose for however long you want, but I think people are increasingly having an issue with being restricted when they donít feel they are at risk. 

Because we all have different risks and medical histories itís reasonable to stay at home, but it is also reasonable to continue life as if nothing happened.  The one size fits all approach and curtailing the ability of reasonable people to make their own risk assessment is increasingly unlikely to work out.

I strongly disagree the economic damage would have occurred at such a level if the response from the government and media was more muted. 

I think the virus will continue for the foreseeable future, the best course of action would be to learn to live with it.  In my area the overwhelming majority of deaths have been in nursing homes, while unfortunate this isnít a tragedy.   

If we were truly ďall in this togetherĒ and the government was able to keep its promises I wonder if people would be more apt to work together.  However, when governments fail to open some businesses, schools and parks when much of the western world is opening up, well then we clearly arenít all in this together...so oh well.  Just more failed and dishonest government policy that is arbitrarily destructive.

I largely blame the hyper-cautious government, and the wall-to-wall fear based media for the economic damage. The gov't is doing everything they can so that no one can point their finger at them and pin even a single death on their shoulders. The media is doing everything in their power to scare the bejesus out of people to get ratings.

At least in Canada, surveys said something like a full 2/3rds of people are convinced they're going to catch it, and they felt it will likely be serious to the point of permanent damage or death. Meanwhile, as a guy in his 30s, the likelihood of catching it, and then dying from it is around 1 in a million (at least based on my provinces numbers - certainly well below the risk of driving). Despite the gov't starting to reopen things, I still have friends my age who haven't been more than a block from their home in 7 weeks, and others who refuse to be in the same room with more than one other person - this despite the gov't saying gatherings of up to 5 were fine, and more as long as it's for an essential reason like work - provided 6' was maintained.

Don't misread me, this virus is real, serious, and reasonable measures need to happen, but I feel the response and palpable fear (particularly among very low risk groups) is completely out of proportion to the threat. The paranoia is bordering on London blitz levels.

The virus didn't wreck the economy, fear and hysteria, abetted by the gov't and media did. 

Well, you were fine in the airport and restaurant because they were nearly empty!  Who were you going to catch the virus from?  Would you still have done that if they were as busy as usual?  Your ability to safely go out depends on everyone else staying home.

And so what if a 30 year old is less likely to catch it and die?  Ever heard of asymptomatic carriers?  Do you want to unknowingly pass it on to more vulnerable people? 

dignam

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 363
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1844 on: May 12, 2020, 09:44:58 AM »
@dignam - hope Nic Lewis is doing better statistical analysis than he was way back in 2015.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-to-misinterpret-climate-change-research/

Let's hope, but he's not the only one making this argument.  Also it is NOT advocating stopping with social distancing and masks, etc. 

dignam

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 363
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1845 on: May 12, 2020, 09:46:14 AM »
Do we have evidence yet that exposure to Covid-19 actually prevents re-infection?  That's what all the 'herd-immunity' discussions really rely on.  My understanding was that this is suspected but has not yet been proven.

No we don't.  We also don't have evidence to the contrary.  That's the rub, we cannot know what CV is until the virus is basically contained. 

HBFIRE

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1249
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Huntington Beach, CA
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1846 on: May 12, 2020, 09:48:17 AM »
Do we have evidence yet that exposure to Covid-19 actually prevents re-infection?  That's what all the 'herd-immunity' discussions really rely on.  My understanding was that this is suspected but has not yet been proven.

Good scientists are cautious about asserting anything as 100% certain fact until it has been repeatedly and independently verified by peer-reviewed experimental results. However, we shouldn't confuse default scientific caution with a lack of confidence that CV19 will A) confer immunity, and B) do so for at least several years. While not yet 100% certain, most virologists are highly confident because they have so many good reasons to be (and no reasons not to be):

1. Experimental Evidence in Primates

When scientists intentionally tried to reinfect monkeys who'd had CV19 and already gotten over it, they couldn't. The monkeys remained immune. Reinfection could not occur in SARS-CoV-2 infected rhesus macaques.

2. Multiple Studies in Humans

Immune response in a cohort of 1343 SARS-Cov 2 patients

Conclusion: Here we show that the vast majority of confirmed COVID19 patients seroconvert, potentially providing immunity to reinfection.

Detection of SARS-CoV-2-specific humoral and cellular immunity in COVID-19 convalescent individuals

These results demonstrate that most recently discharged patients had strong humoral immunity to SARS-CoV-2.

3. Long-Term Studies From CV19's Closest Betacoronavirus Cousins

Duration of Antibody Responses after Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome

SARS patients might be susceptible to reinfection more than 3 years after initial exposure.

Persistence of Antibodies Against Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus

Antibodies, including neutralizing antibodies, were detectable for at least 34 months after the outbreak.

Memory T cell responses targeting the SARS coronavirus persist up to 11 years post-infection


4. Expert Opinion

According to Dr. Michael Emerman, a virologist at Fred Hutchinson Research Center and University of Washington, "immunity to a coronavirus-caused infection typically lasts about three to five years"

ďIf you get an infection, your immune system is revved up against that virus,Ē Keiji Fukuda, director of Hong Kong Universityís School of Public Health, told the Los Angeles Times. ďTo get reinfected again when youíre in that situation would be quite unusual"


Dr. Fauci said ďBecause if this acts like any other virus, once you recover, you wonít get reinfected.Ē

« Last Edit: May 12, 2020, 09:57:21 AM by HBFIRE »

kenmoremmm

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 526
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1847 on: May 12, 2020, 09:59:19 AM »
Do we have evidence yet that exposure to Covid-19 actually prevents re-infection?  That's what all the 'herd-immunity' discussions really rely on.  My understanding was that this is suspected but has not yet been proven.

No we don't.  We also don't have evidence to the contrary.  That's the rub, we cannot know what CV is until the virus is basically contained.

if we don't get herd immunity from contracting the virus, then how would a vaccine ever work?

MudPuppy

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 587
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1848 on: May 12, 2020, 10:03:41 AM »
We also donít know much about itís mutation. One of the viruses that causes the common cold is also a corona virus and it mutates just enough that weíre all catching colds all the time. Itís endemic and there is no functional herd immunity.

HBFIRE

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1249
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Huntington Beach, CA
Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #1849 on: May 12, 2020, 10:21:39 AM »
We also donít know much about itís mutation. One of the viruses that causes the common cold is also a corona virus and it mutates just enough that weíre all catching colds all the time. Itís endemic and there is no functional herd immunity.

I'm not a virologist but my understanding is coronaviridae mutate but most of the mutations tend to be "bad" for the virus (thus "good" for Team Mammal). The phrase a virologist used was "Coronavirdae tend to start with a bang but end with a whimper." Looking at SARS-CoV-2's recent cousins, neither of which we ever found a vaccine for: SARS-CoV-1 started in China in December 2002, WHO issued a global alert in March...

"... and by July it faded away ."

MERS quickly went from headline-grabbing scary to almost gone but occasionally sticks its head up...

This virologist expects CV19 will become more mild and join the other four Coronaviruses (229E, NL63, OC43 & HKU1) that are already part of the over 200 clinically significant upper-respiratory viruses we group under the label "Seasonal Colds and Flus" (with rhinovirus, adenovirus and influenzas).

"it may be that SARS-CoV-2 ďbecomes like the other seasonal coronaviruses that cause common colds,Ē he said: a mild infection of childhood that protects against severe disease in adulthood."
« Last Edit: May 12, 2020, 10:32:46 AM by HBFIRE »