Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 253624 times)

Seadog

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2100 on: May 23, 2020, 05:44:29 AM »

Personally, I have always considered "Karen" and "Becky" and things of that sort to be basically coded racist & sexist slurs.

I'm genuinely curious why you say that? It seems these days everyone seem to be looking for racism and sexism in their soup. Specifically how is it sexist or racist? What sweeping predictions does it make based only on race or sex alone? 

To me it seems very similar to the Spanish term "fresa" (strawberry) used to generalize the young latino/a who comes from an upper class family, is very materialistic, and has no appreciation for money, entitled.

Or even Jock. Guy in late teens/early 20s, muscular, maybe not that smart, gets girls, good at sports.

Or for a MMM twist, miser/frugal/tightwad/Shylock. You can list a bunch of traits of those people have, and if you exhibit them, people may put you in that box. But if the labeling occurs after the fact, I'm not even sure if you could argue about racism/sexism which are forms of prejudice, or "pre-judging". To me labels like Karen are the same. Just a convenient title for a sadly common set of ignorant characteristics. 

I could perhaps see the argument that terms such as Jock, Fresa, Karen, Becky are generalizations or pigeon holing, but anything worse than that is grabbing for racist boogeyman straws. You could maybe go so far as to call it a stereotype, but often such labels are not predicated on entirely superficial traits. No one knows if you're a jock until they see you on the sports field. No one knows you're a Karen until you start complaining about your right to violate quarantine.

It seems there's a difference between "oh he's black, I bet he's going to steal something" and "oh there's a middle aged white woman complaining with her friends all violating 6 ft, what a Karen". One's forward facing making predictions based on race, and one's rearward facing, labeling bad behaviour based on actions.

The common thread for Karens, is shitty, selfish behavior. So I guess I am prejudice then. If you're ignorant and self-centered, I'm probably going to do what I can to avoid you. 

LWYRUP

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2101 on: May 23, 2020, 06:16:23 AM »
I don't want to derail the thread so I'm hesitant to dig into this too much, but I suppose I opened the door so I'll respond and then leave it at that. 

If someone came on this forum saying "I was at the mall yesterday and I saw a bunch of [Tyrones, Pedros, Muhammads whatever] causing a ruckus" I know exactly what I'd think of that sort of comment and that sort of person.  The theory is that when you swap out the races and genders and say "Karens" and "Beckys" it's all of a sudden totally different and instead insightful social commentary.  I am personally skeptical that that is either the intent or effect. 

I find there are rude and ignorant people of many different races, genders, religions, ages and social classes.  I am comfortable calling out the behavior but never with ascribing it to that person's background.  That game can, and has been, played with people of all sorts of backgrounds in the not to distant past.  And it would not be wise for us as a society to simply shift which backgrounds it is socially acceptable to mock rather than combat the tendency to mock people based on their background.  Publicly mocking people based on their background is a dangerous game in the long term, for many reasons.  (Think simple maxims -- What goes around comes around.  An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.)  If the tendency to engage in this sort of behavior once again becomes common in our culture, it won't be long before it's no longer limited to currently socially acceptable targets, or the particular socially acceptable targets will change, and things will go downhill from there. 

Generally speaking, there is a category of behavior I would label as "publicly ascribing to an individual person negative characteristics commonly associated with people of similar race, gender or religious background in a derogatory and condescending manner using nicknames designed to specifically identify them by their particular race, gender and religious background."  That behavior falls below the moral standards I set for myself, and I don't do it for any type of person or background. 

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2102 on: May 23, 2020, 06:21:54 AM »
I don't ascribe any race to the "Karen" epithet, and although it's a female name, I don't see it as being particularly gender-specific either. However, I do really hate it, because it's an unkind stereotype of middle-aged people who are said to be self-interested or self-righteous, etc.

I've noticed a lot of generational angst (cue the "OK Boomer" epithet) and I think it's the most ridiculous thing in the world. Yes, age does matter in some respects - I've been the loudest proponent that Old Lives Don't Quite Matter As Much As Young Ones from a pure public policy/balancing perspective. But when we are talking about individual views, to stereotype old or young people does society a disservice, and fomenting generational warfare is a dangerous and illiberal thing to do.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2103 on: May 23, 2020, 06:48:04 AM »
It seems these days everyone seem to be looking for racism and sexism in their soup.
I'd just like to comment on this sentence.  I don't know anyone who "goes looking" for racism and sexism. We don't need to look for them, they turn up uninvited pretty much all the time.  So maybe just turn this thought around to "racism and sexism have been around for a long time, a lot of people have been oblivious to them for far too long and still are, and some of those people become uncomfortable when racism and sexism are pointed out".

T-Money$

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2104 on: May 23, 2020, 07:29:06 AM »
Here is a more in depth article about the Japanese model:

https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/covid-19-strategy-the-japan-model/

I’ve noticed two things in regards to the pandemic. 

1) There is a comparison of groups of people that have totally different health risks.   Without considering the baseline health of populations it seems the rest of the arguments and explanations lack merit, especially considering how risk factors seem to be a main contributor to outcome.

It's fascinating to read articles and comments from several months ago, with hindsight being 20/20:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/world/asia/japan-coronavirus.html

With an elderly population second to only Italy, Japan with it's densely populated cities was predicted to have a significant amount of fatalities.  It didn't happen and it seems like there was not a significant amount of social distancing or testing.

2) Cognitive dissonance is a huge hinderance to understanding the disease and future protocol.  Aside from Sweden saying they should have protected their elderly and Somali populations more, I have not seen once medical “expert” or politician question or amend their initial hypothesis.  Science is not being practiced here.

Is it possible to be immune to COVID-19 without antibodies?   That seemed to be a central theme from the Oxford epidemiologist posted earlier.  Could other coronavirus infections, viruses and other immune system behaviors protect people from serious infection without the antibody response?   I haven’t thought of this before it was proposed, but I’m curious if anyone knows the answer. 
« Last Edit: May 23, 2020, 08:11:15 AM by T-Money$ »

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2105 on: May 23, 2020, 08:13:42 AM »
Shylock actually is a slur. The character was a character based on Jewish stereotypes.

js82

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2106 on: May 23, 2020, 09:18:29 AM »
I did maths all the way through high school, and I know an exponential (quadratic) curve when I see one. The covid graphs are not exponential. There is a short period of exponential growth, then it quickly linearises and reverses.

1. Exponential and quadratic are definitively NOT the same.  Exponential growth is x^t, quadratic is t^2, where t is time.

And to put a finer point on it, from a mathematical standpoint, you don't model a pandemic as either of these, you model it as a set of differential equations, not a simple exponential function.

2. While we talk about "a curve", in practice a nation's "curve" is really the sum of a bunch of local curves.  This is one reason why most nations' curves don't fit a simple, easy function.  There's the behavior of the virus within a population, and then there's the crossing of the virus between populations(and those populations will have different effective values of R, owing to behaviors and density).  The United States' "curve" is really the product of a bunch of local curves summed together - early on it was dominated by the NYC cluster, but as time goes by it's become the sum of a multitude of smaller clusters.  The size of the United States and the number of distinct population centers mean that we're likely to have a much longer tail to our curve than many other countries.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2107 on: May 23, 2020, 09:28:55 AM »
Thanks Marty and js82. You are right, I have confused a quadratic (y = x^2) with an exponential (y = e^x) function.

But doesn't an exponential function grow even faster than a quadratic? The derivative of a quadratic is 2x, whereas the derivative of e^x is e^x in which case the gradient is higher for all positive values of x.

In other words the natural exponential function goes up even faster than a quadratic.

I get that not every exponential function has the natural base.

Nonetheless, my point is not any single country's curve has followed a true exponential function for more than a few days. The hysteria about "exponential growth" is ridiculous. Plot most countries' "upswing" and it looks more like linear growth than anything else.

Governments have hoodwinked us by selling us the "worst case scenario" to try to instil preventative measures. It would have been better for them to calmly and rationally provide us the QALY measurements to explain why or why not certain quarantine measures were/are warranted. It's really dishonest to provide say the 99th percentile worst case scenario (1.5 million deaths in the U.S. etc) without also providing the 1st percentile worst case scenario. Generally it is best to just provide the median. Of if you can't do that, provide a range of figures.

All the range of figures the Australian government put out were far in excess of what actually transpired which makes me think it was a deliberate scare strategy aimed at quelling the dissent among the populace.
« Last Edit: May 23, 2020, 09:31:27 AM by Bloop Bloop »

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2108 on: May 23, 2020, 10:41:51 AM »
Here is a more in depth article about the Japanese model:

It's fascinating to read articles and comments from several months ago, with hindsight being 20/20:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/world/asia/japan-coronavirus.html



Thanks for the share, Tokyo is a fascinating study.  Are there any current theories how it avoided severe hospitalization/outbreak?  Is the explanation simply a healthier population?

deborah

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2109 on: May 23, 2020, 11:25:51 AM »
@Bloop Bloop If you look at every prediction curve, they all looked like normal distributions rather than exponential curves, because as a virus goes through a community there are fewer and fewer people to catch it. Initially, when no one has had it at all, it can look exponential. 

Quarantine measures reduce the number of infected people coming into a population, reducing the likelihood of the virus spreading into that population and the number of people in that population from simultaneously getting it. Lockdown measures rob the virus of people to infect, and break the population into small communities. Each separate small community can get the virus if it interacts with another one, but the number of people affected at any particular time is reduced. Each measure extends the length of time it takes for the virus to spread through the population.

Health workers are the most likely people to get the virus, because they’re interacting with more sick people. If enough health workers are out of action, more people die because their carers have less experience and know how. Specific effective care hasn’t been worked out for a new virus so more people are likely to die before health workers identify more specific effective measures.

Consider the death toll in northern Italy and transfer that to Australia. Remember that quarantine and lockdown are in place there, reducing the deaths. Remember also that this is just the first wave. It’s expected to last for a couple of years. The Australian predictions sound reasonable. Just reducing the virus spread won’t reduce the final death toll, but fewer people are already dying because health carers have already identified better ways to treat patients. There is also the possibility of a vaccine.

In Australia 63% of our cases have been identified as from overseas. Our quarantine has picked up those cases and removed them from infecting the community. After finding initial community transmission, we went into lockdown. So we’ve had 4 deaths per million rather than the 797 that Belgium has had so far.

However, almost all our small lockdown communities have had no exposure at all to the virus. If lockdown was completely removed, and people were interacting without any constraints, the exponential part of the curve would start again for most of Australia, since we do have some cases. We actually have a choice. If we have no one at all with the virus, and our quarantine is completely effective, we could come out of lockdown completely. Currently the ACT (18 days of no active cases) and SA (10 days of no active cases) could do this, and the other states except NSW and Victoria look like they might be able to in a couple of weeks. The other option is to reduce the lockdown measures gradually, and to keep tracking and testing in place and clamp down every time a flare up occurs.

Both options leave us with a very vulnerable population if it gets into the country again. The second wave of the Spanish flu was the most deadly.

I don’t think we were given the 99.9% probability. We were given the probability at the time, before much was known about covid19, when figures were rough. More is now known about how it spreads. Things have changed. Other populations are locking down in part whether or not their governments are telling them to. This is also making curves bend.

The more we know about this virus, the more glad I am about the government decisions. It’s a particularly nasty one that possibility causes severe lifelong problems in people who have really mild cases (including young people and children). Yes, if you’re over 50 (with an average life expectancy of another 35 years), you’re more likely to die from it, but some of the complications that are just beginning to emerge are definitely worth avoiding.

Seadog

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2110 on: May 23, 2020, 11:29:37 AM »
I don't want to derail the thread so I'm hesitant to dig into this too much, but I suppose I opened the door so I'll respond and then leave it at that. 

If someone came on this forum saying "I was at the mall yesterday and I saw a bunch of [Tyrones, Pedros, Muhammads whatever] causing a ruckus" I know exactly what I'd think of that sort of comment and that sort of person.  The theory is that when you swap out the races and genders and say "Karens" and "Beckys" it's all of a sudden totally different and instead insightful social commentary.  I am personally skeptical that that is either the intent or effect. 

I find there are rude and ignorant people of many different races, genders, religions, ages and social classes.  I am comfortable calling out the behavior but never with ascribing it to that person's background.  That game can, and has been, played with people of all sorts of backgrounds in the not to distant past.  And it would not be wise for us as a society to simply shift which backgrounds it is socially acceptable to mock rather than combat the tendency to mock people based on their background.  Publicly mocking people based on their background is a dangerous game in the long term, for many reasons.  (Think simple maxims -- What goes around comes around.  An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.)  If the tendency to engage in this sort of behavior once again becomes common in our culture, it won't be long before it's no longer limited to currently socially acceptable targets, or the particular socially acceptable targets will change, and things will go downhill from there. 

Generally speaking, there is a category of behavior I would label as "publicly ascribing to an individual person negative characteristics commonly associated with people of similar race, gender or religious background in a derogatory and condescending manner using nicknames designed to specifically identify them by their particular race, gender and religious background."  That behavior falls below the moral standards I set for myself, and I don't do it for any type of person or background.

Well stated, and you actually made my mind pull back a hair. I'm happy to call a spade a spade, and honestly think in the most superficial sense that saying "there were a bunch of frat boys causing a ruckus" and "there were a bunch of pedros causing a ruckus" convey a salient point beyond "there's a bunch of inconsiderates causing a ruckus". They don't cause a ruckus in the same way.

The point I will concede though is that it's a very dangerous slope. It's a very short leap from "Oh that group of Mohammads were acting so typical, flashing cash and fancy cars" to "oh, there's an A-rab, when's the flashy car and cash coming out (You know how they are...)".


T-Money$

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2111 on: May 23, 2020, 11:50:55 AM »
Esimates COVID-19 iFR of 0.02-0.40%, limitations and reasons for the wide range are discussed in the paper.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v1.full.pdf

I think it's a dysfunctional tragedy of the irrationality of human thinking that many nations have failed to protect the populations that are at risk while doing an incredible amount of damage to the majority of the population that has little risk.

The author of the above study wrote this opinion piece in mid March:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

He seemed to be on point referencing the problem of coronaviruses in long-term care facilities, while traditionally being fairly asymptomatic or mild to the general public.

JGS1980

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2112 on: May 23, 2020, 12:58:25 PM »
Esimates COVID-19 iFR of 0.02-0.40%, limitations and reasons for the wide range are discussed in the paper.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v1.full.pdf

I think it's a dysfunctional tragedy of the irrationality of human thinking that many nations have failed to protect the populations that are at risk while doing an incredible amount of damage to the majority of the population that has little risk.

The author of the above study wrote this opinion piece in mid March:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

He seemed to be on point referencing the problem of coronaviruses in long-term care facilities, while traditionally being fairly asymptomatic or mild to the general public.

T-Money, you and a fair number of other posters keep on repeating the same mistake!

You point to the IFR and say, "see, see, it's not as dangerous as we thought!"

You forget that we knew NOTHING about this virus in late January through mid-March when it was quickly spreading around the world.  At the time, we thought it could have been fatal as much 1-2% (or even higher). Armchair epidemiologists don't get to look back 3 months later and say I told you so when millions of lives were at stake.

ANNNNNDDDDDD, the potential overwhelming of the medical system STILL applies [at which point you can throw that IFR out the window], whether it be the first wave in Sao Paulo or the eventual second wave in NYC metro area.

T-Money$

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2113 on: May 23, 2020, 01:55:24 PM »
Esimates COVID-19 iFR of 0.02-0.40%, limitations and reasons for the wide range are discussed in the paper.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v1.full.pdf

I think it's a dysfunctional tragedy of the irrationality of human thinking that many nations have failed to protect the populations that are at risk while doing an incredible amount of damage to the majority of the population that has little risk.

The author of the above study wrote this opinion piece in mid March:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

He seemed to be on point referencing the problem of coronaviruses in long-term care facilities, while traditionally being fairly asymptomatic or mild to the general public.

T-Money, you and a fair number of other posters keep on repeating the same mistake!

You point to the IFR and say, "see, see, it's not as dangerous as we thought!"

You forget that we knew NOTHING about this virus in late January through mid-March when it was quickly spreading around the world.  At the time, we thought it could have been fatal as much 1-2% (or even higher). Armchair epidemiologists don't get to look back 3 months later and say I told you so when millions of lives were at stake.

ANNNNNDDDDDD, the potential overwhelming of the medical system STILL applies [at which point you can throw that IFR out the window], whether it be the first wave in Sao Paulo or the eventual second wave in NYC metro area.

As Mr. Money Mustache himself said, "safety is a very expensive illusion".   

39,000,000 unemployed and $3 trillion debt later...

GardenerB

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2114 on: May 23, 2020, 02:06:07 PM »
5)  The models and data support both Ferguson (IFR of 0.8 to 1%) and Sunetra (IFR of 0.05 to 0.1%)  Somewhere in between won't be known for another year once we know how many additional had it but fought it off with no antibodies made.  Obviously IFR widely-varies based on the usual (co-morbidities, age, strain, etc.)

Going to have to disagree with this.  Sunetra's estimates of IFR absolutely cannot be reconciled with the available data.  Belgium, Spain, the UK, Italy and France all have population-level death rates of 0.04-0.08%(NYC area is 0.1-0.2%), and:

1) There's a pretty good data consensus that there's a meaningful undercounting of deaths, in some cases by 20-30%, and
2) There's not evidence to support that >50% of the population has been infected in areas with 0.05% population death rates - antibody testing has come in well below that in most cases, and you'd have to assume a pretty stratospheric value of R to assume an IFR of <0.1% for a population-level death rate of 0.08%(Belgium).

There's no reasonable set of assumptions I can see that gets you to <0.1% IFR based on the available data, barring demographics significantly younger than most of the US/Europe, or doing a truly exceptional job of isolating the vulnerable, beyond what anyone has yet accomplished.

I meant to emphasize the RANGE of IFR estimates is supported.  Not than any one IFR figure applies to all regions.  Again we won't know the estimate for a year or more.

You are correct - seroprevalance tests don't support the lower IFR currently - Sunetra is of course way on the lower end since her main assumption is that a large portion of the population got infected and fought it off without producing antibodies (as with many other coronavirus).  That will take a long time to test/prove.  But if the estimate is correct, the IFR will end up being lower.  I've heard other epidemiologists assume this too - it's wishful thinking I guess but they feel this virus IFR will end up being ten-fold lower once the subsequent waves have gone through (again only because other corona virus behave this way).

It is quite a stretch, to use Belgium as an example (9200 deaths).  If say IFR were 0.15%, then 6 million out of 11.5 million would have to have been infected.  Whereas IHME estimates 1.3 million infected, IFR of 0.7%.  (from https://covid19.healthdata.org/belgium)

Will be interesting to see those studies later for how many recover with no antibodies produced.

Speaking of that - with the flurry of pre-prints on https://www.medrxiv.org/ where these are released - are there lots of peer-reviews going on?  Not just comments, but actual peer reviews to challenge the assumptions?

T-Money$

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2115 on: May 23, 2020, 02:25:02 PM »
You are correct - seroprevalance tests don't support the lower IFR currently - Sunetra is of course way on the lower end since her main assumption is that a large portion of the population got infected and fought it off without producing antibodies (as with many other coronavirus).

Can you elaborate on this?  How does this work?

GardenerB

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2116 on: May 23, 2020, 04:00:25 PM »
You are correct - seroprevalance tests don't support the lower IFR currently - Sunetra is of course way on the lower end since her main assumption is that a large portion of the population got infected and fought it off without producing antibodies (as with many other coronavirus).

Can you elaborate on this?  How does this work?

I don't think it is in their pre-print - Sunetra explains her opinion (but not really how it works) in her interview about it (Freddy Sayers interviewing):

"As she sees it, the antibody studies, although useful, do not indicate the true level of exposure or level of immunity. First, many of the antibody tests are “extremely unreliable” and rely on hard-to-achieve representative groups. But more important, many people who have been exposed to the virus will have other kinds of immunity that don’t show up on antibody tests — either for genetic reasons or the result of pre-existing immunities to related coronaviruses such as the common cold."

"The implications of this are profound – it means that when we hear results from antibody tests (such as a forthcoming official UK Government study) the percentage who test positive for antibodies is not necessarily equal to the percentage who have immunity or resistance to the virus. The true number could be much higher."

Really need test studies done to see how many in a sample could recover without producing antibodies vs how many recover with antibodies.  She stresses many times that the death data fits her model AND the pessimistic Imperial College model (more than ten-fold estimates of IFR between them).  Many assumptions made based on behavior from any other corona virus.

Preprint:  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20042291v1.full.pdf

Interview:  https://unherd.com/2020/05/oxford-doubles-down-sunetra-gupta-interview/

PS:  Side note.  I feel for all these virologists/biologists/epidemiologists.  Having worked with models most of my career, I see they are in a tough spot.  My modeling background could be built in a day and tested in a day, tweaked, criticized, and peer-tested till it was accurate.  These experts have to wait years to prove and test their models and then get criticized all over the place by us 'armchair epidemiologists'  They will probably look forward to getting back to their normal (assumedly introverted?) work.

PPS:  Same with statisticians like Sir David Spiegelhalter - he's been trying to calmly explain death risks throughout this in the UK.
https://twitter.com/d_spiegel?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

T-Money$

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2117 on: May 23, 2020, 05:59:36 PM »
"But more important, many people who have been exposed to the virus will have other kinds of immunity that don’t show up on antibody tests — either for genetic reasons or the result of pre-existing immunities to related coronaviruses such as the common cold."

PS:  Side note.  I feel for all these virologists/biologists/epidemiologists.  Having worked with models most of my career, I see they are in a tough spot.  My modeling background could be built in a day and tested in a day, tweaked, criticized, and peer-tested till it was accurate.  These experts have to wait years to prove and test their models and then get criticized all over the place by us 'armchair epidemiologists'  They will probably look forward to getting back to their normal (assumedly introverted?) work.


Fascinating stuff.  I assumed that antibody tests were the answer, but if immunity could occur without COVID-19 specific seroconversion then it would seem antibody tests won't be particularly useful?

Not sure I feel the same way you do about those that study this stuff.  Perhaps they are mostly fine people, but the ones that have been brought to center stage in the media and government seem to be fairly flawed people that have caused a tremendous amount of damage and suffering that was perhaps not needed.

Take Neil Ferguson, his model was probably overly pessimistic by the order of several magnitude or more, but we don't know for sure because I believe his coding and initialization schemes are not public.  His previous modelling of past potential pandemics has been very inaccurate.  In the end he was forced to resign because he didn't follow his own advice.   I think criticism of him and those like him is very justified, why he is taken seriously I haven't the foggiest...

I come from a modelling background as well, but in the physical sciences.  Our models are much more complex, the schemes, algorithms and data are totally public and transparent, the model output is verified and most importantly the uncertainty is always expressed in the forecasts through conditional probability and ensemble forecasting.  Warnings and forecasts are always probabilistic until certainty is assured.  I'm relieved I work in the hard sciences, because quite frankly the more people get involved the more science is discarded, manipulated and distorted to fit their own needs and agendas.

I usually look at the medical "industry" with skepticism as they seem to practice their art with one part science, one part ego and one part profit margin.  Iatrogenic illness has been estimated to kill 250,000 people in the United States per year, every year.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2118 on: May 23, 2020, 07:03:34 PM »
@Bloop Bloop If you look at every prediction curve, they all looked like normal distributions rather than exponential curves, because as a virus goes through a community there are fewer and fewer people to catch it. Initially, when no one has had it at all, it can look exponential. 

Yes, I agree with this. A normal curve is a good way to describe it. So why did governments and media ever use the language of "exponential"? It's scare-mongering.

I'm not saying that we shouldn't have taken measures. I'm saying that a lot of the measures were ridiculous and without any tangible benefit (restricting people's ability to drive, restricting romantic partners from meeting, banning golf and fishing) and they were rammed through via scare tactics about the rate of growth and also the death rate.


Quote
We were given the probability at the time, before much was known about covid19, when figures were rough. More is now known about how it spreads. Things have changed. Other populations are locking down in part whether or not their governments are telling them to. This is also making curves bend.

We should have been given a range. That way we could have made informed decisions about which laws to flout and which to obey.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2119 on: May 23, 2020, 07:06:24 PM »

T-Money, you and a fair number of other posters keep on repeating the same mistake!

You point to the IFR and say, "see, see, it's not as dangerous as we thought!"

You forget that we knew NOTHING about this virus in late January through mid-March when it was quickly spreading around the world.  At the time, we thought it could have been fatal as much 1-2% (or even higher). Armchair epidemiologists don't get to look back 3 months later and say I told you so when millions of lives were at stake.

Millions of lives are at stake either way. The least you can do is be honest and say "Look, we don't know, so we're going to take a near-worst-case-scenario and ask the whole population to sacrifice for the benefit of the vulnerable part of the population. We respect the intelligence of the community so here are the unknowns and here are the QALY calculations and if you agree with it great and if you disagree with it let's have an honest utilitarian argument."

Instead we were told: "Millions will die unless you stop playing golf."

DadJokes

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2120 on: May 23, 2020, 08:22:51 PM »
Our Saturday board game group resumed today after ~6 weeks off. There were 8 of us playing in a mall food court. Last time I checked, 0.2% of the state has tested positive (1 in 500). No one there even personally knows anyone that has tested positive, so we decided that we have waited long enough to flatten the curve.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2121 on: May 23, 2020, 09:01:31 PM »
Two houses down from me on our court an ambulance just pulled up, and two men in body condoms and respirators are now taking a body out on a stretcher covered in plastic.  I know the couple who live in that house, both are in their early 50s and in good shape.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2122 on: May 23, 2020, 09:03:45 PM »
I’m sorry, @GuitarStv

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2123 on: May 23, 2020, 09:35:03 PM »
Dr. David Katz has good, practical ideas on how the US can switch from current horizontal lockdowns, affecting almost everyone, to a more vertical, i.e. surgical strategy, prioritizing the protection of those most at risk. Definitely worth a watch. It's relevant to this conversation.

deborah

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2124 on: May 23, 2020, 09:53:42 PM »
@Bloop Bloop If you look at every prediction curve, they all looked like normal distributions rather than exponential curves, because as a virus goes through a community there are fewer and fewer people to catch it. Initially, when no one has had it at all, it can look exponential. 

Yes, I agree with this. A normal curve is a good way to describe it. So why did governments and media ever use the language of "exponential"? It's scare-mongering.
We all saw the "flatten the curve" slides, and they showed the whole graph. Then they said it was exponential - which it more or less is initially - and the big scary monster in the room was whether or not we'd run out of equipment - clothing, health staff, ventilators... If we did, many more people would die before it became non-exponential. At that time, every country that already had it was about to run out of these things or already had. ScoMo called it far earlier than other western economies. But it was so early that no one had a clue. He probably knew just how dire our equipment situation was - especially as China had bought a lot of our equipment because they desperately needed it, even though they make it and we don't make much at all. At first we were really on the back foot.

Because of the risks, he was throwing everything he could at it. It's pretty laughable, because people are normally pretty well socially distanced at golf, so that could have stayed. At least our lockdown wasn't like some other places where you need a number to go out of your house.

I'm not saying that we shouldn't have taken measures. I'm saying that a lot of the measures were ridiculous and without any tangible benefit (restricting people's ability to drive, restricting romantic partners from meeting, banning golf and fishing) and they were rammed through via scare tactics about the rate of growth and also the death rate.
Some things were stupid. But they always are in a panic situation. We did exceptionally well in the GFC, yet we made stupid mistakes then. At least they were the right kind of stupid mistakes. We could easily have leaders who didn't take heed, who didn't wait for confirmation before touting each unlikely cure...

I don't agree with you about driving. People stop to get petrol, and decide they might as well get a meal as well... and end up interacting with a lot of other people who would be outside their small lockdown community. Especially if something happens and they have an accident. Rural people have poorer health services and so were more at risk of being overwhelmed. Our city populations are also younger than our rural populations. You will note that WA is still divided into separate regions that people cannot go between. The average age of our farmers is 56 - well over the age where covid19 starts to become a real issue.

Quote
We were given the probability at the time, before much was known about covid19, when figures were rough. More is now known about how it spreads. Things have changed. Other populations are locking down in part whether or not their governments are telling them to. This is also making curves bend.

We should have been given a range. That way we could have made informed decisions about which laws to flout and which to obey.

It was so early that I think a range would have been meaningless. I also think that people make "informed decisions" because of what they want to do, not because they have reasoned things through without bias. For instance, ScoMo wanted to go to the footy, even though he HAD been informed, and was trying to advise everyone. He hadn't thought it through. I don't think that most people are trying to make decisions about which laws to flout.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2125 on: May 23, 2020, 10:41:28 PM »
The only sustainable benefit to lockdowns would be to delay deaths until they can be prevented and that means "vaccine". The most optimistic expert opinions I've seen don't expect mass deployment of vaccines to the public before Spring and that's at the very earliest - and only if everything goes perfectly. And there are many experts who believe even that is highly unlikely with Dr. Paul Offit, Director of Vaccine Education and Infectious Diseases at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia saying:

"When Dr. Fauci said 12 to 18 months, I thought that was ridiculously optimistic."

and

"the volume of vaccine available in coming years is expected to fall far short of global demand"

You can choose to place a risky bet on the hope of government achieving something that has never been done before (develop, test, manufacture and deploy a safe, effective vaccine in less than a year.  At scale.). There is no guarantee this bet will work, yet the immense cost of placing that bet is both certain and catastrophic:

• U.N. warns economic downturn could kill hundreds of thousands of children in 2020

Economic damage from the coronavirus is hitting the lowest level of wage earners hardest

public health specialists are exploring a different consequence of the mass shutdown: the thousands of deaths likely to arise unrelated to the disease itself.

• "cut the life spans of Americans by a collective two to three million years"

75,000 Additional Deaths from Alcohol and Drug Misuse and Suicide

• "claiming the lives of 10,000 more people"

• "could push half a billion people into poverty, Oxfam warns. Nearly half of all jobs in Africa could be lost"

Nearly 40% of low-income workers lost their jobs in March

Jobless Claims Reach 36.5 Million in U.S.

• Dr. Fauci warns lockdown may cause irreparable damage.


Unlike most covid-19 deaths, these deaths were preventable and many still are preventable. Choosing costly actions certain to kill so many people in a misguided attempt to prevent far fewer deaths, the vast majority of which were unavoidable anyway, is tragically ironic.

The ease with which so many otherwise good people selfishly ignore the devastation of mass mandatory lockdowns on the poor/disadvantaged/marginalized is a moral stain. Supporting mandatory mass lockdowns is a privilege of the entitled who can comfortably "shelter" in their work-from-home middle-class bubbles enabled by Uber Eats and Amazon Prime. Apparently, grandmas in Africa who already lacked food security in the best of times, don't count for as much as grandmas with time-shares and RVs.

Only one path averts more preventable deaths.  By wisely sticking with cooperative approaches such as voluntary social distancing and only no-cost/low-cost mitigation, Sweden has already advanced to 25% immunity in the urban areas where it's needed first and most. This path only appears scarier in the first two months because, unlike mandatory mass lockdowns it doesn't delay unpreventable deaths. However, it's the safest plan because we know it works. Mass mandatory lockdowns are actually the risky new idea unsupported by history or any empirical evidence. What Sweden is doing has been their default plan for years. Similar plans were also the default plan in the U.S. and most of Europe.

Sweden’s Coronavirus Strategy Will Soon Be the World’s


"Sweden’s Public Health Agency, has projected that the city of Stockholm could reach herd immunity as early as this month."

"Stockholm University mathematician Tom Britton has calculated that 40 percent immunity in the capital could be enough to stop the virus’s spread there and that this could happen by mid-June."

« Last Edit: May 24, 2020, 02:53:56 AM by HBFIRE »

American GenX

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2126 on: May 23, 2020, 11:50:20 PM »

We're opening up way too quickly.  I fully expect a surge in cases in various regions, more people will die than otherwise would, and health care facilities will be overwhelmed (and in some cases, already are with the current load).

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2127 on: May 24, 2020, 02:38:45 AM »
From what I've read Sweden's death rate is high because of two major factors. 1. Care homes (which have suffered everywhere in UK and mainland Europe, possibly everywhere, I don't know) and 2. Immigrant populations who live in poverty and/or don't speak Swedish, and don't have the same almost innate culture of swiftly and smoothly complying with government suggestions.

Whenever people bring up Sweden's high death rate per million (currently 396) why does nobody mention Belgium (currently 797)?

Belgium did a lockdown and has a population 1.5 million people larger than Sweden. Perhaps it's fun to attack Sweden because they're different, and it's painful to acknowledge Belgium because in doing so suddenly the pro-lockdown argument is weakened.

I've even seen this text on the website of the Telegraph, which is an English broadsheet newspaper

Quote
According to figures collated by the Our World in Data website, Sweden had 6.08 deaths per million inhabitants per day on a rolling seven-day average between May 13 and May 20.

This is the highest in the world, above the UK, Belgium and the US, which have 5.57, 4.28 and 4.11 respectively.

Basically it's saying that if we look at figures from just one week, which ended on Friday, Sweden is the worst! OMG! They're so bad!

I'm sure we could find a week in the past 6 months where the US or Brazil had no cases. What does that even mean? Nobody cares how a nation "performed" for 1 week or even 1 month. It's going to be about what happened over a minimum of 12 months when we get to, say, 2022 and look back at this entire thing from beginning to end (I don't think there will actually be an end per se). This is just journalists trying to fill "column inches" with more Sweden bashing.

I actually don't think various countries are that different in practice. They might be on paper, but when it comes to what's happening out there on the streets and in the parks and urban areas, it's all pretty much the same. @frugalnacho said that Sweden are in a defacto state of lockdown because its people don't want to die. That's the same with everyone on the planet who lives somewhere wealthy enough and advanced enough that they are able to use the internet to work from home. In Austria and Norway, people are staying at home because they don't want to die. Equally in Austria and Norway I'm sure that somewhere, COVIDiots are out and about meeting up in large groups and breaking the rules because they think they're untouchable.

In the UK, if lockdown was 100% lifted tomorrow, I'd remain on my own personal "lockdown" for another month or two because I don't want to die. I also don't want to survive it and come out of the other side with debilitating permanent damage to my lungs etc.

Regardless of what your government says, if you live in a democracy, the buck ultimately stops with you as the individual, regardless of whether or not the lockdown is enforced with prison sentences and fines. Look at it this way, why have we not seen anti-lockdown protests like we did in parts of the US in other countries like Germany or Canada? Equally, why didn't the police send in SWAT teams to deal with the armed protestors in parts of the US? Surely, if the government has "locked down" they should enforce it right? Otherwise, how are you any different from Sweden?

You can have a softer approach like Sweden, where the government "recommends" or "suggests" that people do stuff, or you can have a harder approach where the government "tells" people to do stuff, but in the end, how things actually play out on the ground is no different. No democracy has a police force so big/brutal that they can put a cop on every street corner in the nation and ensure that nobody goes outside for fear of being arrested, beaten or shot. It's ultimately about people being concerned enough for their own health that they adhere to the guidance.

As others have mentioned, there are many countries where war, corruption, poverty, crime, starvation and lack of clean water are bigger concerns than COVID-19 will ever be, so they have to carry on regardless. The governments in those countries can issue the same guidelines as Sweden, the US or Australia, but because of circumstances, people are far less likely to adhere to them because they have been facing enormous hardship day in, day out for the past 50+ years that put this pandemic in the shade.

cerat0n1a

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2128 on: May 24, 2020, 05:18:06 AM »
From what I've read Sweden's death rate is high because of two major factors. 1. Care homes (which have suffered everywhere in UK and mainland Europe, possibly everywhere, I don't know) and 2. Immigrant populations who live in poverty and/or don't speak Swedish, and don't have the same almost innate culture of swiftly and smoothly complying with government suggestions.

Whenever people bring up Sweden's high death rate per million (currently 396) why does nobody mention Belgium (currently 797)?

One of the things that makes it pretty hard to compare countries is different ways of counting deaths. Belgium is counting all deaths in care homes as being from Covid-19, regardless of cause and without testing. Their health minister says that if neighbouring countries were using the same methodology as Belgium, those countries' announced figures would approximately double. (The UK has not been counting any care home deaths, Covid or not, in its figures IIRC.)

Too soon to tell which approach was best, but Sweden's per capita death rate is running at more than 10x its neighbours Norway & Finland.

former player

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2129 on: May 24, 2020, 05:45:08 AM »
From what I've read Sweden's death rate is high because of two major factors. 1. Care homes (which have suffered everywhere in UK and mainland Europe, possibly everywhere, I don't know) and 2. Immigrant populations who live in poverty and/or don't speak Swedish, and don't have the same almost innate culture of swiftly and smoothly complying with government suggestions.

Whenever people bring up Sweden's high death rate per million (currently 396) why does nobody mention Belgium (currently 797)?

One of the things that makes it pretty hard to compare countries is different ways of counting deaths. Belgium is counting all deaths in care homes as being from Covid-19, regardless of cause and without testing. Their health minister says that if neighbouring countries were using the same methodology as Belgium, those countries' announced figures would approximately double. (The UK has not been counting any care home deaths, Covid or not, in its figures IIRC.)

Too soon to tell which approach was best, but Sweden's per capita death rate is running at more than 10x its neighbours Norway & Finland.
Yes, given that testing rates have been so variable between different countries, and even in the same country over the weeks and months, the only way to get close to the truth on the numbers of deaths caused by coronavirus will be to compare total death rates this year against average death rates for previous years.  That would include indirect deaths (those caused by eg not having medical help available for other illnesses) but as we learn more and more about the effects the coronavirus has on the body, particularly this "sticky blood" problem that leads to all sorts of illness other than to the lungs and in particular to strokes and heart attacks, I suspect that a very high proportion of those extra deaths are caused directly by the virus.

Plina

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2130 on: May 24, 2020, 06:06:20 AM »
From what I've read Sweden's death rate is high because of two major factors. 1. Care homes (which have suffered everywhere in UK and mainland Europe, possibly everywhere, I don't know) and 2. Immigrant populations who live in poverty and/or don't speak Swedish, and don't have the same almost innate culture of swiftly and smoothly complying with government suggestions.

Whenever people bring up Sweden's high death rate per million (currently 396) why does nobody mention Belgium (currently 797)?

One of the things that makes it pretty hard to compare countries is different ways of counting deaths. Belgium is counting all deaths in care homes as being from Covid-19, regardless of cause and without testing. Their health minister says that if neighbouring countries were using the same methodology as Belgium, those countries' announced figures would approximately double. (The UK has not been counting any care home deaths, Covid or not, in its figures IIRC.)

Too soon to tell which approach was best, but Sweden's per capita death rate is running at more than 10x its neighbours Norway & Finland.

I would adjust number 2 to an immigration community with bigger than standard size of families (2 kids) that also live multigenerational in some cases. Put in 7 people in to 70 square meters as was one example you are in big trouble when it comes to social distancing. Based on an article from one of the affected community the language was not a problem rather that people in more poor parts of the cities also work in jobs like bus drivers, tram drivers, cleaning, fast-food etc were the risk is a lot higher. They also have to take public transport to work. If you also add to the equation that immigrants make up a lot of the work force on hourly basis in the care homes you have a serious problem. I read an article in the beginning of the week from the two care homes with the highest death rates in my city were about 60-70 % of the staff had been sick or had to stay home due to some flu symptoms. That included management.

Sweden has failed when it comes to protecting the elderly in care homes and with home care. Some part of the country has managed pretty well while others have not. It has started a discussion about our elder care but in the long run I don't know if it will change anything. To anyone that reads the newspapers the problems in our eldercare have been pretty clear. It all comes to what we want to pay for elder care and what kind of standard we think is ok.

We also count into our statistic deaths in care homes when the elder show coronavirus symptoms although most of the people have not been tested.

Otherwise I have come to pretty much the same conclusions as @Spud .

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2131 on: May 24, 2020, 06:34:43 AM »
Interesting that the UK is still not counting care home deaths. My state is publishing those figures, naming the facility, and also posting their total COVID positives.

former player

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2132 on: May 24, 2020, 06:50:12 AM »
(The UK has not been counting any care home deaths, Covid or not, in its figures IIRC.)
Interesting that the UK is still not counting care home deaths.

Not true.  Please see Office of National Statistics reports -

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending8may2020

(There was an issue with getting and publishing this information earlier on.  But it was fixed some time ago.)

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2133 on: May 24, 2020, 07:00:02 AM »
That’s good to know.

T-Money$

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2134 on: May 24, 2020, 07:16:23 AM »
From what I've read Sweden's death rate is high because of two major factors. 1. Care homes (which have suffered everywhere in UK and mainland Europe, possibly everywhere, I don't know) and 2. Immigrant populations who live in poverty and/or don't speak Swedish, and don't have the same almost innate culture of swiftly and smoothly complying with government suggestions.

Whenever people bring up Sweden's high death rate per million (currently 396) why does nobody mention Belgium (currently 797)?

One of the things that makes it pretty hard to compare countries is different ways of counting deaths. Belgium is counting all deaths in care homes as being from Covid-19, regardless of cause and without testing. Their health minister says that if neighbouring countries were using the same methodology as Belgium, those countries' announced figures would approximately double. (The UK has not been counting any care home deaths, Covid or not, in its figures IIRC.)

Too soon to tell which approach was best, but Sweden's per capita death rate is running at more than 10x its neighbours Norway & Finland.

I would adjust number 2 to an immigration community with bigger than standard size of families (2 kids) that also live multigenerational in some cases. Put in 7 people in to 70 square meters as was one example you are in big trouble when it comes to social distancing. Based on an article from one of the affected community the language was not a problem rather that people in more poor parts of the cities also work in jobs like bus drivers, tram drivers, cleaning, fast-food etc were the risk is a lot higher. They also have to take public transport to work. If you also add to the equation that immigrants make up a lot of the work force on hourly basis in the care homes you have a serious problem. I read an article in the beginning of the week from the two care homes with the highest death rates in my city were about 60-70 % of the staff had been sick or had to stay home due to some flu symptoms. That included management.

Sweden has failed when it comes to protecting the elderly in care homes and with home care. Some part of the country has managed pretty well while others have not. It has started a discussion about our elder care but in the long run I don't know if it will change anything. To anyone that reads the newspapers the problems in our eldercare have been pretty clear. It all comes to what we want to pay for elder care and what kind of standard we think is ok.

We also count into our statistic deaths in care homes when the elder show coronavirus symptoms although most of the people have not been tested.

Otherwise I have come to pretty much the same conclusions as @Spud .

Has there been a published breakdown of fatalities in Sweden?  How many first generation immigrants and long-term care residents died?  It would be interesting to compare the ratios vs. Belgium, Sweden and the other Nordic countries. 

cerat0n1a

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2135 on: May 24, 2020, 08:01:05 AM »
(The UK has not been counting any care home deaths, Covid or not, in its figures IIRC.)
Interesting that the UK is still not counting care home deaths.

Not true.  Please see Office of National Statistics reports -

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending8may2020

(There was an issue with getting and publishing this information earlier on.  But it was fixed some time ago.)

Yes, I'd forgotten we started adding them in.

fattest_foot

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2136 on: May 24, 2020, 08:15:57 AM »
T-Money, you and a fair number of other posters keep on repeating the same mistake!

You point to the IFR and say, "see, see, it's not as dangerous as we thought!"

You forget that we knew NOTHING about this virus in late January through mid-March when it was quickly spreading around the world.  At the time, we thought it could have been fatal as much 1-2% (or even higher). Armchair epidemiologists don't get to look back 3 months later and say I told you so when millions of lives were at stake.

ANNNNNDDDDDD, the potential overwhelming of the medical system STILL applies [at which point you can throw that IFR out the window], whether it be the first wave in Sao Paulo or the eventual second wave in NYC metro area.

And yet, here we are 2 months removed from mid-March and we DO have the data, and yet we have a large portion of the population still in a panic. That's why these things get posted.

Plina

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2137 on: May 24, 2020, 09:49:53 AM »
From what I've read Sweden's death rate is high because of two major factors. 1. Care homes (which have suffered everywhere in UK and mainland Europe, possibly everywhere, I don't know) and 2. Immigrant populations who live in poverty and/or don't speak Swedish, and don't have the same almost innate culture of swiftly and smoothly complying with government suggestions.

Whenever people bring up Sweden's high death rate per million (currently 396) why does nobody mention Belgium (currently 797)?

One of the things that makes it pretty hard to compare countries is different ways of counting deaths. Belgium is counting all deaths in care homes as being from Covid-19, regardless of cause and without testing. Their health minister says that if neighbouring countries were using the same methodology as Belgium, those countries' announced figures would approximately double. (The UK has not been counting any care home deaths, Covid or not, in its figures IIRC.)

Too soon to tell which approach was best, but Sweden's per capita death rate is running at more than 10x its neighbours Norway & Finland.

I would adjust number 2 to an immigration community with bigger than standard size of families (2 kids) that also live multigenerational in some cases. Put in 7 people in to 70 square meters as was one example you are in big trouble when it comes to social distancing. Based on an article from one of the affected community the language was not a problem rather that people in more poor parts of the cities also work in jobs like bus drivers, tram drivers, cleaning, fast-food etc were the risk is a lot higher. They also have to take public transport to work. If you also add to the equation that immigrants make up a lot of the work force on hourly basis in the care homes you have a serious problem. I read an article in the beginning of the week from the two care homes with the highest death rates in my city were about 60-70 % of the staff had been sick or had to stay home due to some flu symptoms. That included management.

Sweden has failed when it comes to protecting the elderly in care homes and with home care. Some part of the country has managed pretty well while others have not. It has started a discussion about our elder care but in the long run I don't know if it will change anything. To anyone that reads the newspapers the problems in our eldercare have been pretty clear. It all comes to what we want to pay for elder care and what kind of standard we think is ok.

We also count into our statistic deaths in care homes when the elder show coronavirus symptoms although most of the people have not been tested.

Otherwise I have come to pretty much the same conclusions as @Spud .

Has there been a published breakdown of fatalities in Sweden?  How many first generation immigrants and long-term care residents died?  It would be interesting to compare the ratios vs. Belgium, Sweden and the other Nordic countries.

There is age related statistic and also when it comes to elderly where they have died. I haven't seen any statistic related to nationality and immigration. I think that would make it necessary to make a deep dive into the statistics. I would also guess that is not something you can get from the death certificate as you can get with place of death.

Until the 18 th of May there have been 3309 deaths related to Covid among the 70+ year whereas 1713 is men and 1596 is women. About 2700 is +85 years. Of the total number of dead among the 70+ year olds 1739 were living in a care home and 890 had home care. 1371 died in hospital, 1752 in care homes and 124 at home.


« Last Edit: May 24, 2020, 09:51:38 AM by Plina »

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2138 on: May 24, 2020, 02:14:36 PM »
It was so early that I think a range would have been meaningless. I also think that people make "informed decisions" because of what they want to do, not because they have reasoned things through without bias. For instance, ScoMo wanted to go to the footy, even though he HAD been informed, and was trying to advise everyone. He hadn't thought it through. I don't think that most people are trying to make decisions about which laws to flout.

Although this is obviously English, and I can read the words, have to admit I have absolutely no idea what the bolded phrase above means... :)

deborah

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2139 on: May 24, 2020, 02:25:32 PM »
It was so early that I think a range would have been meaningless. I also think that people make "informed decisions" because of what they want to do, not because they have reasoned things through without bias. For instance, ScoMo wanted to go to the footy, even though he HAD been informed, and was trying to advise everyone. He hadn't thought it through. I don't think that most people are trying to make decisions about which laws to flout.

Although this is obviously English, and I can read the words, have to admit I have absolutely no idea what the bolded phrase above means... :)
ScoMo = Scott Morrison  = prime minister of Australia.
Footy = football - in this case I think it was a rugby match between two professional teams with thousands of spectators filling the stands. It may have been cancelled because we were about to go into lockdown. Everything was happening pretty fast. Scott was telling everyone to social distance, but said he planned to go to watch his team play that weekend. He got a lot of flak about it. He didn’t go.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2140 on: May 24, 2020, 02:27:36 PM »
It was so early that I think a range would have been meaningless. I also think that people make "informed decisions" because of what they want to do, not because they have reasoned things through without bias. For instance, ScoMo wanted to go to the footy, even though he HAD been informed, and was trying to advise everyone. He hadn't thought it through. I don't think that most people are trying to make decisions about which laws to flout.

Although this is obviously English, and I can read the words, have to admit I have absolutely no idea what the bolded phrase above means... :)
ScoMo = Scott Morrison  = prime minister of Australia.
Footy = football - in this case I think it was a rugby match between two professional teams with thousands of spectators filling the stands. It may have been cancelled because we were about to go into lockdown. Everything was happening pretty fast. Scott was telling everyone to social distance, but said he planned to go to watch his team play that weekend. He got a lot of flak about it. He didn’t go.

@deborah thanks. Makes total sense now! :)

Plina

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2141 on: May 24, 2020, 02:29:26 PM »
It was so early that I think a range would have been meaningless. I also think that people make "informed decisions" because of what they want to do, not because they have reasoned things through without bias. For instance, ScoMo wanted to go to the footy, even though he HAD been informed, and was trying to advise everyone. He hadn't thought it through. I don't think that most people are trying to make decisions about which laws to flout.

Although this is obviously English, and I can read the words, have to admit I have absolutely no idea what the bolded phrase above means... :)

Scott Morrisson wanted to go and see football is my guess.

wenchsenior

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2142 on: May 24, 2020, 03:55:04 PM »
It was so early that I think a range would have been meaningless. I also think that people make "informed decisions" because of what they want to do, not because they have reasoned things through without bias. For instance, ScoMo wanted to go to the footy, even though he HAD been informed, and was trying to advise everyone. He hadn't thought it through. I don't think that most people are trying to make decisions about which laws to flout.

Although this is obviously English, and I can read the words, have to admit I have absolutely no idea what the bolded phrase above means... :)

Scott Morrisson wanted to go and see football is my guess.

Except I suspect 'football' means soccer.

Little Aussie Battler

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2143 on: May 24, 2020, 04:33:43 PM »
Football = rugby league.

ScoMo, also referred to as Scotty from Marketing.  We're a respectful lot down under.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2144 on: May 24, 2020, 10:51:16 PM »
Football = rugby league.

ScoMo, also referred to as Scotty from Marketing.  We're a respectful lot down under.

I have never understood why Australians think that a pointed lack of respect is a good thing. I'm not saying you should respect people automatically. But the national tendency to pillage leaders - while somehow lionising deeply flawed individuals who do nothing more than punt a ball well - is a tragedy.

Back on topic, I've been reading some reddit comments and it seems like some of the more socialist minded young folks are almost disappointed that Australia has completely beaten the virus. They wanted more economic upheaval so that capitalism would sink. Now that it's business as usual and we've eradicated the 'rona, they are disappointed that the system did, in fact, work in this instance.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2145 on: May 25, 2020, 12:58:58 AM »
I have never understood why Australians think that a pointed lack of respect is a good thing.
Only for those who've earned their lack of respect. From "I stopped the boats" (well, the ones without diseased people, ahem) to forcing a handshake from someone who'd lost their home in a bushfire, Morrison's earned a lack of respect.

Quote
while somehow lionising deeply flawed individuals who do nothing more than punt a ball well - is a tragedy.
I think it's a stupid game, but last time I went I saw and heard a lot of vicious verbal attacks on footy players. So it goes both ways for them :)

Quote
Back on topic, I've been reading some reddit comments and it seems like some of the more socialist minded young folks are almost disappointed that Australia has completely beaten the virus. They wanted more economic upheaval so that capitalism would sink.
Reddit? Or do you mean The Age and Guardian comment sections?


marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2147 on: May 25, 2020, 05:42:20 AM »
I have never understood why Australians think that a pointed lack of respect is a good thing. I'm not saying you should respect people automatically. But the national tendency to pillage leaders - while somehow lionising deeply flawed individuals who do nothing more than punt a ball well - is a tragedy.

Beginning to suspect you're not actually Australian ;)

Our politicians are mocked because they deserved to be mocked. I will respect an honest politician, but they are few and far between among our current mob.

Exhibit A: Energy Minister Angus Taylor - The man was previously a director and co-founder of a Company (Eastern Australia Agriculture) that was paid $80 million by the taxpayer for water rights approved by the Agriculture Minister Barnaby Joyce without going to tender under the normal process. EAA's shareholder is Eastern Australia Irrigation, a company domiciled in the Cayman Islands. I'll leave you to guess where that $80 million went and how much tax was paid on it.

He spends half his time doctoring fake reports to score political points against a local Mayor, and refuses for months to apologise when caught out. One day he will do his job and represent his electorate, but I won't hold my breath.

I will save my kudos for leaders such as Shane Fitzsimmons, Fiona Stanley, Turia Pitt, Terence Tao and Rosie Batty.

They are far more worthy of respect than your garden variety corrupt politician.
« Last Edit: May 25, 2020, 05:48:51 AM by marty998 »

KBecks

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2148 on: May 25, 2020, 08:44:20 AM »
Back on topic, I've been reading some reddit comments and it seems like some of the more socialist minded young folks are almost disappointed that Australia has completely beaten the virus. They wanted more economic upheaval so that capitalism would sink. Now that it's business as usual and we've eradicated the 'rona, they are disappointed that the system did, in fact, work in this instance.

I find that attitude so disgusting -- that young people *want* more human suffering so their flawed ideology can "succeed".  It is also terrible that some demented, fringe few environmentalists were cheering on the wildfires, and some may have committed arson.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/01/07/australia-fires-people-charged-starting-wildfires-arson/2831063001/

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/text-messages-expose-teenage-arsonists-as-responsible-for-a-raging-bushfire-thats-forced-hundreds-of-terrified-locals-to-flee-their-homes/ar-AAH4TrC

wenchsenior

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2149 on: May 25, 2020, 09:40:06 AM »
Football = rugby league.

ScoMo, also referred to as Scotty from Marketing.  We're a respectful lot down under.

How do you guys refer to Australian football?