How long can we wait while flattening the curve?

[Shane]

Pennsylvania's daily death rate is, now, about 200 people/day, which is 16X what it was back in September. Yesterday, I saw a video news clip taken at a local mall parking lot. Shoppers coming out of the mall, many of them unmasked, were being interviewed, and all were saying, basically, "The whole place packed! It's crazy! This is the most crowded I've ever seen the mall in my life!"

Last week, an acquaintance who works in a bar invited us to come over to a party inside his house with a bunch of other people. Our next door neighbor acted really surprised when we saw him on the sidewalk in front of our houses, yesterday, and told him that our immediate family was planning on just staying home for Christmas. He was like, "Oh, aren't you guys going to go out to eat Christmas dinner at a restaurant?" When I reminded him that our governor had issued an executive order closing all bars and restaurants, until sometime after the holidays, he told me, "Oh, there are a bunch of places that are defying our 'dictator's' orders. I can text you a list of names of places that will be open if you like. I'm going to be meeting up with 5 friends at a restaurant that has a really good buffet. You guys should come, too." I was like, uh, no, that's okay.

Somehow, it doesn't seem to me like the curve is going to be flattened here in my state anytime soon. Hopefully, once the most at-risk people get vaccinated, infections will start going down again, but not sure how long that's going to take. It just seems so stupid to me that people aren't social distancing. The same people I know in our neighborhood who are out shopping at crowded malls without masks are also saying, "There's no way I'm ever going to take the dumb vaccine!" When I try to explain to them that, even if they personally aren't worried about catching covid, it might be a good idea to get vaccinated anyway, just to protect other people who might be more vulnerable than they, themselves, think they are, they laugh at me and say, "I'm sick of this shit. People keep saying I should get vaccinated to protect other people. If you're scared of covid, then YOU get vaccinated. Don't tell me what I should do!"

I try to keep in mind that the more people who catch covid, the better it is for me and my family, because we have enough privilege to be able to just completely avoid them all. Unfortunately, all the really adamant, loud, anti-maskers and anti-vaxxers we know, either aren't getting sick, or if they do catch covid, it's a real mild case, and they're back out on the streets, shortly afterwards, making fun of people who are trying to be careful and not get sick. I just feel bad for the people in our community who have to go to work at shitty minimum wage jobs that force them to come into close contact with other people everyday. Many of them don't have any other good choices but to go to work and take their chances.

[OtherJen]

I really wish that we as a country could have given our medical workers and coroners an easier holiday.

[T-Money$]

Pennsylvania's daily death rate is, now, about 200 people/day, which is 16X what it was back in September. Yesterday, I saw a video news clip taken at a local mall parking lot. Shoppers coming out of the mall, many of them unmasked, were being interviewed, and all were saying, basically, "The whole place packed! It's crazy! This is the most crowded I've ever seen the mall in my life!"

Last week, an acquaintance who works in a bar invited us to come over to a party inside his house with a bunch of other people. Our next door neighbor acted really surprised when we saw him on the sidewalk in front of our houses, yesterday, and told him that our immediate family was planning on just staying home for Christmas. He was like, "Oh, aren't you guys going to go out to eat Christmas dinner at a restaurant?" When I reminded him that our governor had issued an executive order closing all bars and restaurants, until sometime after the holidays, he told me, "Oh, there are a bunch of places that are defying our 'dictator's' orders. I can text you a list of names of places that will be open if you like. I'm going to be meeting up with 5 friends at a restaurant that has a really good buffet. You guys should come, too." I was like, uh, no, that's okay.

Somehow, it doesn't seem to me like the curve is going to be flattened here in my state anytime soon. Hopefully, once the most at-risk people get vaccinated, infections will start going down again, but not sure how long that's going to take. It just seems so stupid to me that people aren't social distancing. The same people I know in our neighborhood who are out shopping at crowded malls without masks are also saying, "There's no way I'm ever going to take the dumb vaccine!" When I try to explain to them that, even if they personally aren't worried about catching covid, it might be a good idea to get vaccinated anyway, just to protect other people who might be more vulnerable than they, themselves, think they are, they laugh at me and say, "I'm sick of this shit. People keep saying I should get vaccinated to protect other people. If you're scared of covid, then YOU get vaccinated. Don't tell me what I should do!"

I try to keep in mind that the more people who catch covid, the better it is for me and my family, because we have enough privilege to be able to just completely avoid them all. Unfortunately, all the really adamant, loud, anti-maskers and anti-vaxxers we know, either aren't getting sick, or if they do catch covid, it's a real mild case, and they're back out on the streets, shortly afterwards, making fun of people who are trying to be careful and not get sick. I just feel bad for the people in our community who have to go to work at shitty minimum wage jobs that force them to come into close contact with other people everyday. Many of them don't have any other good choices but to go to work and take their chances.

The curve in PA has likely already flattened.  Even in places like South Dakota where there is very limited mitigation and no masks, their PCR test COVID positives are a fraction of what they were a few weeks ago.  COVID behaves very similar to other respiratory illnesses. 

With or without mitigation, case numbers don’t stay high for more than a couple weeks.

There are a few restaurants that have remained open in my area.  I frequent them, along with travel.

You are the problem along with your garbage Governor.  Destroying peoples lives so you can virtue signal and pacify your hysteria.  Dysfunctional and disgusting.



MOD NOTE: Please read forum rule #1. Disagreeing is fine. Personal attacks and rude name calling is not.

[T-Money$]

^I agree that the curve won't be flattening anytime soon. I'm in SoCal and we are surging hard here with zero ICU beds and lots of hours long waits in packed hospital corridors or ambulances for beds. Hospitals and staff massively overwhelmed. But yet there are huge group gatherings - many unmasked - and ignoring of our closures (most everything closed again). I think Calif is #1 in cases overall and over 2 million now and 24,000 deaths but it is a populous state so expected to be higher. Something like a 900% increase in cases since the low in Oct.

California has had more restrictions for more time than any other state.  Clearly, most mitigation is ineffective.

[marty998]

Pennsylvania's daily death rate is, now, about 200 people/day, which is 16X what it was back in September. Yesterday, I saw a video news clip taken at a local mall parking lot. Shoppers coming out of the mall, many of them unmasked, were being interviewed, and all were saying, basically, "The whole place packed! It's crazy! This is the most crowded I've ever seen the mall in my life!"

Last week, an acquaintance who works in a bar invited us to come over to a party inside his house with a bunch of other people. Our next door neighbor acted really surprised when we saw him on the sidewalk in front of our houses, yesterday, and told him that our immediate family was planning on just staying home for Christmas. He was like, "Oh, aren't you guys going to go out to eat Christmas dinner at a restaurant?" When I reminded him that our governor had issued an executive order closing all bars and restaurants, until sometime after the holidays, he told me, "Oh, there are a bunch of places that are defying our 'dictator's' orders. I can text you a list of names of places that will be open if you like. I'm going to be meeting up with 5 friends at a restaurant that has a really good buffet. You guys should come, too." I was like, uh, no, that's okay.

Somehow, it doesn't seem to me like the curve is going to be flattened here in my state anytime soon. Hopefully, once the most at-risk people get vaccinated, infections will start going down again, but not sure how long that's going to take. It just seems so stupid to me that people aren't social distancing. The same people I know in our neighborhood who are out shopping at crowded malls without masks are also saying, "There's no way I'm ever going to take the dumb vaccine!" When I try to explain to them that, even if they personally aren't worried about catching covid, it might be a good idea to get vaccinated anyway, just to protect other people who might be more vulnerable than they, themselves, think they are, they laugh at me and say, "I'm sick of this shit. People keep saying I should get vaccinated to protect other people. If you're scared of covid, then YOU get vaccinated. Don't tell me what I should do!"

I try to keep in mind that the more people who catch covid, the better it is for me and my family, because we have enough privilege to be able to just completely avoid them all. Unfortunately, all the really adamant, loud, anti-maskers and anti-vaxxers we know, either aren't getting sick, or if they do catch covid, it's a real mild case, and they're back out on the streets, shortly afterwards, making fun of people who are trying to be careful and not get sick. I just feel bad for the people in our community who have to go to work at shitty minimum wage jobs that force them to come into close contact with other people everyday. Many of them don't have any other good choices but to go to work and take their chances.

The curve in PA has likely already flattened.  Even in places like South Dakota where there is very limited mitigation and no masks, their PCR test COVID positives are a fraction of what they were a few weeks ago.  COVID behaves very similar to other respiratory illnesses. 

With or without mitigation, case numbers don’t stay high for more than a couple weeks.

There are a few restaurants that have remained open in my area.  I frequent them, along with travel.

You are the problem along with your garbage Governor.  Destroying peoples lives so you can virtue signal and pacify your hysteria.  Dysfunctional and disgusting.

Give it a rest. It's Christmas Day.

[GuitarStv]

Pennsylvania's daily death rate is, now, about 200 people/day, which is 16X what it was back in September. Yesterday, I saw a video news clip taken at a local mall parking lot. Shoppers coming out of the mall, many of them unmasked, were being interviewed, and all were saying, basically, "The whole place packed! It's crazy! This is the most crowded I've ever seen the mall in my life!"

Last week, an acquaintance who works in a bar invited us to come over to a party inside his house with a bunch of other people. Our next door neighbor acted really surprised when we saw him on the sidewalk in front of our houses, yesterday, and told him that our immediate family was planning on just staying home for Christmas. He was like, "Oh, aren't you guys going to go out to eat Christmas dinner at a restaurant?" When I reminded him that our governor had issued an executive order closing all bars and restaurants, until sometime after the holidays, he told me, "Oh, there are a bunch of places that are defying our 'dictator's' orders. I can text you a list of names of places that will be open if you like. I'm going to be meeting up with 5 friends at a restaurant that has a really good buffet. You guys should come, too." I was like, uh, no, that's okay.

Somehow, it doesn't seem to me like the curve is going to be flattened here in my state anytime soon. Hopefully, once the most at-risk people get vaccinated, infections will start going down again, but not sure how long that's going to take. It just seems so stupid to me that people aren't social distancing. The same people I know in our neighborhood who are out shopping at crowded malls without masks are also saying, "There's no way I'm ever going to take the dumb vaccine!" When I try to explain to them that, even if they personally aren't worried about catching covid, it might be a good idea to get vaccinated anyway, just to protect other people who might be more vulnerable than they, themselves, think they are, they laugh at me and say, "I'm sick of this shit. People keep saying I should get vaccinated to protect other people. If you're scared of covid, then YOU get vaccinated. Don't tell me what I should do!"

I try to keep in mind that the more people who catch covid, the better it is for me and my family, because we have enough privilege to be able to just completely avoid them all. Unfortunately, all the really adamant, loud, anti-maskers and anti-vaxxers we know, either aren't getting sick, or if they do catch covid, it's a real mild case, and they're back out on the streets, shortly afterwards, making fun of people who are trying to be careful and not get sick. I just feel bad for the people in our community who have to go to work at shitty minimum wage jobs that force them to come into close contact with other people everyday. Many of them don't have any other good choices but to go to work and take their chances.

The curve in PA has likely already flattened.  Even in places like South Dakota where there is very limited mitigation and no masks, their PCR test COVID positives are a fraction of what they were a few weeks ago.  COVID behaves very similar to other respiratory illnesses. 

With or without mitigation, case numbers don’t stay high for more than a couple weeks.

There are a few restaurants that have remained open in my area.  I frequent them, along with travel.

You are the problem along with your garbage Governor.  Destroying peoples lives so you can virtue signal and pacify your hysteria.  Dysfunctional and disgusting.

Give it a rest. It's Christmas Day.

No it's not!  Damned Australian time travelers . . .

[Abe]

LA county has minimal remaining critical care support left. Most hospitals are on diversion (cannot accept ambulances due to no capacity to admit the new arrivals). Orange county (south of LA) recently suspended diversion (hospitals must take new arrivals and accommodate them as possible). San Diego county has 12% capacity so can take maybe 50 more patients from up north. The inland counties are well above capacity and were diverting to LA & Orange since early December. Non-emergency operations have essentially stopped in both counties.

Here in the Houston area we have about 10% of total hospital beds (about 2000) and 6% of adult ICU beds left (about 100). In both areas the increase in inpatients is linear without any sign of plateau. We are now at the peak level from the summer.

[marty998]

Snip

Snip

Give it a rest. It's Christmas Day.

No it's not!  Damned Australian time travelers . . .

Living in the past @GuitarStv

[Shane]

Pennsylvania's daily death rate is, now, about 200 people/day, which is 16X what it was back in September. Yesterday, I saw a video news clip taken at a local mall parking lot. Shoppers coming out of the mall, many of them unmasked, were being interviewed, and all were saying, basically, "The whole place packed! It's crazy! This is the most crowded I've ever seen the mall in my life!"

Last week, an acquaintance who works in a bar invited us to come over to a party inside his house with a bunch of other people. Our next door neighbor acted really surprised when we saw him on the sidewalk in front of our houses, yesterday, and told him that our immediate family was planning on just staying home for Christmas. He was like, "Oh, aren't you guys going to go out to eat Christmas dinner at a restaurant?" When I reminded him that our governor had issued an executive order closing all bars and restaurants, until sometime after the holidays, he told me, "Oh, there are a bunch of places that are defying our 'dictator's' orders. I can text you a list of names of places that will be open if you like. I'm going to be meeting up with 5 friends at a restaurant that has a really good buffet. You guys should come, too." I was like, uh, no, that's okay.

Somehow, it doesn't seem to me like the curve is going to be flattened here in my state anytime soon. Hopefully, once the most at-risk people get vaccinated, infections will start going down again, but not sure how long that's going to take. It just seems so stupid to me that people aren't social distancing. The same people I know in our neighborhood who are out shopping at crowded malls without masks are also saying, "There's no way I'm ever going to take the dumb vaccine!" When I try to explain to them that, even if they personally aren't worried about catching covid, it might be a good idea to get vaccinated anyway, just to protect other people who might be more vulnerable than they, themselves, think they are, they laugh at me and say, "I'm sick of this shit. People keep saying I should get vaccinated to protect other people. If you're scared of covid, then YOU get vaccinated. Don't tell me what I should do!"

I try to keep in mind that the more people who catch covid, the better it is for me and my family, because we have enough privilege to be able to just completely avoid them all. Unfortunately, all the really adamant, loud, anti-maskers and anti-vaxxers we know, either aren't getting sick, or if they do catch covid, it's a real mild case, and they're back out on the streets, shortly afterwards, making fun of people who are trying to be careful and not get sick. I just feel bad for the people in our community who have to go to work at shitty minimum wage jobs that force them to come into close contact with other people everyday. Many of them don't have any other good choices but to go to work and take their chances.

The curve in PA has likely already flattened.  Even in places like South Dakota where there is very limited mitigation and no masks, their PCR test COVID positives are a fraction of what they were a few weeks ago.  COVID behaves very similar to other respiratory illnesses. 

With or without mitigation, case numbers don’t stay high for more than a couple weeks.

There are a few restaurants that have remained open in my area.  I frequent them, along with travel.

You are the problem along with your garbage Governor.  Destroying peoples lives so you can virtue signal and pacify your hysteria.  Dysfunctional and disgusting.

Uhhhh, okay. I guess? Merry Christmas to you, too, T-Money$!

[skp]

Ohio seems to be doing better.    I work in a ICU- we've been full with covid patients for months.  I was called off today.  Low census.  I was shocked.

[Cooper62]

Ohio seems to be doing better.    I work in a ICU- we've been full with covid patients for months.  I was called off today.  Low census.  I was shocked.

What area of Ohio?  I live in Ohio and like to hear this kind of news. My high school son's school moved the students from in person to fully remote recently due to students and teachers that had it or had close contact and had to quarantine so I am worried it is getting worse.

[skp]

Ohio seems to be doing better.    I work in a ICU- we've been full with covid patients for months.  I was called off today.  Low census.  I was shocked.

What area of Ohio?  I live in Ohio and like to hear this kind of news. My high school son's school moved the students from in person to fully remote recently due to students and teachers that had it or had close contact and had to quarantine so I am worried it is getting worse.

Northeast (east of Cleveland)

[Abe]

Here's a map I made showing the % increase in cases per county in US compared to a week ago (top) and 2 weeks ago (bottom):

[mathlete]

Who remembers the Imperial College paper? It was a media punching bag (as well as a punching bag around here) for having a topline conclusion that COVID could kill 2.2 million Americans. I decided to take a fresh look at it.

Assumptions

The base reproduction rate (R0) used in the paper is 2.4. The CDC's current best estimate is 2.5.

The paper's assumption on the infectiousness of asymptomatic individuals is 50%. The CDC estimates 75%.

Below is the curve of IFRs by age from both the Imperial College paper, and the current best estimates from the CDC. I used the midpoint of age ranges and the rest are interpolated.



The raw IFRs are a little aggressive, but the curve looks pretty good. i.e., they never assumed the virus could kill boatloads of young people or anything.

Given that the paper was published on March 16th, when testing infrastructure was pretty bad and we were dealing with a few thousand deaths worldwide, and not hundreds of thousands, I think the assumptions are pretty reasonable.

Most of the uncertainty was probably introduced then, in how countries might mitigate or how effective that mitigation would be.

Conclusions

The 2.2 million deaths was the headline grabber. But recall that this was in the unlikely scenario of zero mitigation. The paper simulated many mitigation strategies and estimated that with mitigation, the US would see ~1.1 million deaths over two years. Current projections put us at around 550K deaths in March of 2021 here in the US. Keen observers will note that 550K x 2 (years) is 1.1 million. I don't know how much that's worth, but it's interesting. It wouldn't be scientifically sound for Imperial College to trot that out as a victory but.... it's interesting :)

My personal bottom line conclusion after following this for almost a year now, is that I would answer with a resounding "Yes", the question of, "Is this a virus that could kill over a million people in the US?"

---

It is good an necessary to question scientific results. That's how we get better results. The IHME was the first on the scene with a projected deaths model. They got a lot of criticism, including from yours truly. An early model revision had deaths looking like a bell curve that went to zero in the summer. That was a dumb result and I sent them an email explaining why. A few weeks later, they showed more reasonable results. I'm not big headed enough to think that my criticism is what did the trick, but I'll say that it was criticism of the type that probably did. I still wasn't an IHME fan after the revision, but in recent months, they've actually been pretty good. They're off the naughty list.

This is the beauty of systems. When you take a systemic approach to problem solving, you're getting better and better all the time. Now compare the state of COVID science and modeling to the state of the skeptics. I'm willing to bet that most of the skeptics you know are just as skeptical as they were 10 months ago. The only change is that they've moved the goalpost several times. From thinking it wasn't even as bad as H1N1 in March, to thinking it would go away in the Summer, to thinking we were at herd immunity in the fall, and so on.

One of my favorite modelers, Youyang Gu has started charting the "path to herd immunity". You can see it here:

https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/

The shaded blue area gives us an idea of how much potential morbidity and mortality we're saving with vaccinations. And a non trivial fraction of the blue bar is attributable to the fact that we engaged in mitigation. We're saving lives. Lots of them. And we should feel good about that as a society.

[mm1970]

^I agree that the curve won't be flattening anytime soon. I'm in SoCal and we are surging hard here with zero ICU beds and lots of hours long waits in packed hospital corridors or ambulances for beds. Hospitals and staff massively overwhelmed. But yet there are huge group gatherings - many unmasked - and ignoring of our closures (most everything closed again). I think Calif is #1 in cases overall and over 2 million now and 24,000 deaths but it is a populous state so expected to be higher. Something like a 900% increase in cases since the low in Oct.

California has had more restrictions for more time than any other state.  Clearly, most mitigation is ineffective.

Having restrictions and following restrictions are 2 totally different things. From what I've seen on a daily basis very few follow restrictions including many businesses.

Yep.  Plenty of people are marching through our downtown, unmasked, in large groups to protest...masks, and shutdowns.  Also, people are still gathering.

My rural hometown in PA has flattened the curve.  I keep several graphs.  Their flattening (actually curving downwards now) lines up very nicely with the statewide lockdown requirements.  Yes, they all started bitching about having to wear masks, and limits on restaurants, and requests to not gather for the holidays.  But you know what?  It worked.  I was pretty shocked that none of my relatives gathered for the holidays.  Zoom for the win.

Our county in So Cal, however (see the "marching maskless" and "gatherings", above) - our numbers are high, and have been steadily increasing for 2 months. So the below is utter bullshit:

With or without mitigation, case numbers don’t stay high for more than a couple weeks.

This virus spreads exponentially.  In a place like my hometown in western PA, which is very rural, curve flattening is maybe easier?  Not so populous.  Los Angeles is a hot mess (10 million people) and up the coast here - we are better off but STILL our numbers, as mentioned, have been increasing for 2 months.

[cerat0n1a]

Who remembers the Imperial College paper? It was a media punching bag (as well as a punching bag around here) for having a topline conclusion that COVID could kill 2.2 million Americans. I decided to take a fresh look at it.

There was an article in the UK press a couple of days ago, which came to similar conclusions i.e. the Imperial model has turned out to be pretty accurate.

You might find this pretty interesting, from Nature: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03208-1

Interesting finding was that there were 3 parameters which had caused the Imperial model to be overly optimistic about the impact of lockdowns -  the length of the latent period during which an infected person has no symptoms and can’t pass the virus on; the effectiveness of social distancing; and how long after getting infected a person goes into isolation.

[OtherJen]

^I agree that the curve won't be flattening anytime soon. I'm in SoCal and we are surging hard here with zero ICU beds and lots of hours long waits in packed hospital corridors or ambulances for beds. Hospitals and staff massively overwhelmed. But yet there are huge group gatherings - many unmasked - and ignoring of our closures (most everything closed again). I think Calif is #1 in cases overall and over 2 million now and 24,000 deaths but it is a populous state so expected to be higher. Something like a 900% increase in cases since the low in Oct.

California has had more restrictions for more time than any other state.  Clearly, most mitigation is ineffective.

Having restrictions and following restrictions are 2 totally different things. From what I've seen on a daily basis very few follow restrictions including many businesses.

Yep.  Plenty of people are marching through our downtown, unmasked, in large groups to protest...masks, and shutdowns.  Also, people are still gathering.

My rural hometown in PA has flattened the curve.  I keep several graphs.  Their flattening (actually curving downwards now) lines up very nicely with the statewide lockdown requirements.  Yes, they all started bitching about having to wear masks, and limits on restaurants, and requests to not gather for the holidays.  But you know what?  It worked.  I was pretty shocked that none of my relatives gathered for the holidays.  Zoom for the win.

Our county in So Cal, however (see the "marching maskless" and "gatherings", above) - our numbers are high, and have been steadily increasing for 2 months. So the below is utter bullshit:

With or without mitigation, case numbers don’t stay high for more than a couple weeks.

This virus spreads exponentially.  In a place like my hometown in western PA, which is very rural, curve flattening is maybe easier?  Not so populous.  Los Angeles is a hot mess (10 million people) and up the coast here - we are better off but STILL our numbers, as mentioned, have been increasing for 2 months.

And these are the consequences. I'm so sorry you're dealing with this bullshit. I hope some of the idiots are starting to get what we all meant by "flatten the curve."

L.A. County hospitals turn away ambulances, put patients in gift shop: ‘I’ve never seen anything like this’ (LA Times)

At Los Angeles County-USC Medical Center, the breaking point came Sunday night.

There was not one available bed for at least 30 patients who needed intensive or intermediate levels of care, and the hospital had to shut its doors to all ambulance traffic for 12 hours. Some patients, including the very sick who required intensive oxygen, experienced wait times as long as 18 hours to get into the intensive care unit.

The front entrance of Community Hospital of Huntington Park was closed to the public Monday; the back of the building saw a steady stream of ambulances over the weekend, with one security guard saying the vehicles arrived as frequently as every half hour.

And Memorial Hospital of Gardena on Monday was running at 140% capacity, forcing officials to ask for a four-hour suspension of new ambulance calls so it could move patients. The hospital is struggling to keep enough oxygen and supplies on hand amid the crunch of COVID-19 patients who need it.

[American GenX]

ALERT!

"A Colorado man has the variant of the coronavirus from the United Kingdom that health officials say is more transmissable than other strains of the virus, "

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/29/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html

[marty998]

ALERT!

"A Colorado man has the variant of the coronavirus from the United Kingdom that health officials say is more transmissable than other strains of the virus, "

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/29/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html

One of those turned up in Australia earlier in the week but that person is safely tucked away from everyone in Hotel Quarantine, along with another with the highly transmissible South African strain.

Unfortunately, the particular strains of the virus don’t broadcast themselves on the foreheads of anyone who has it, so you’ve still got to assume everyone has it.

[Abe]

To give an update in SoCal; there is about 1 week’s worth of capacity for total beds based on current growth rate in hospitalizations (increase of 1000 per week over last 4 weeks). Icu bed capacity is less than a week; assuming no surge use of ORs, and assuming enough intensive care physicians and nurses (which is the bigger issue).

Several hospitals are on diversion but that’s fairly common. The big issue is there are only some fraction of hospitals that can be on diversion before we have a catastrophic collapse in the health system like in prior epidemic sites. One of the state emergency sites had been open and will be taking non-critical patients to relieve capacity. I think ultimately we will have enough capacity but quality of care will suffer and mortality rates will climb.

[mm1970]

To give an update in SoCal; there is about 1 week’s worth of capacity for total beds based on current growth rate in hospitalizations (increase of 1000 per week over last 4 weeks). Icu bed capacity is less than a week; assuming no surge use of ORs, and assuming enough intensive care physicians and nurses (which is the bigger issue).

Several hospitals are on diversion but that’s fairly common. The big issue is there are only some fraction of hospitals that can be on diversion before we have a catastrophic collapse in the health system like in prior epidemic sites. One of the state emergency sites had been open and will be taking non-critical patients to relieve capacity. I think ultimately we will have enough capacity but quality of care will suffer and mortality rates will climb.

I've heard zero % ICU capacity in at least the SoCal region which includes LA, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura counties.  Unless you count pediatric beds too. Maybe some ICU avalibility outside of LA and OC. Scary with so many millions of people in all those areas. Diversion is happening in LA hospitals now but not sure where they can actually take people. Far north Calif is OK now and it is easi g in Sacramento area but us SoCalians are screwed if we need an ER or ICU or well... Just about anything else.

So Cal region also includes Santa Barbara county.

We have zero % ICU capacity in the So Cal region (actually, negative).

[Abe]

San Diego has some beds still. La county’s daily figures from the health department are where I was getting their data. Today they report 40 beds. I guess if you figure that San Bernardino is over capacity then the total average capacity is 0%? Could you all provide the links for that, I’m interested to see how that was calculated. This is all not clinically relevant because 0 vs 42 beds is such a slim margin! Talking to my friends back in SoCal they report that all elective operations, including cancer cases, have been halted again. They haven’t been drafted into the covid units like in the summer though. Good luck everyone! Stay safe!

[mathlete]

For future reference, it is indeed possible to concatenate 8 small posts into one large post.

[RetiredAt63]

And given that New Zealand's population is about 5 million, if millions there had died there would be almost no people left.

[mathlete]

As much as I would like to blame the capital boogyman for this, I don't think that captures the whole picture. In fact, some of the most capital heavy companies on the planet (Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, etc.) were the first to send people home. And in early May, these companies committed to remote work through all of 2020. Other large caps and mid caps (including my company) were not leaders, but certainly followed suit. In a year where our profits are going to be down big, my company has doubled down on investment. We're buying into technologies that help us conduct our bread and butter business remotely. We're hiring people from several states away whom we've never met in person to help us adapt and be resilient in a world where close contact means hundreds of thousands dead.

And capital heavy companies (those you typically think of when people say things like "cockroaches of capital") are doing great. The S&P is up 17% and that's fucking nuts. Because the most valuable companies in the world are not so threatened by this pandemic in the long term.

The issue this time isn't capital IMO, it's freedom. In the West, we have very strong attachment to individual freedoms. Usually, I think this is good, but lately, it seems like "freedom" really just means freedom from inconvenience and civic responsibility.

Taiwan is a capitalist country. It has a large and dense population. But they've contained the virus. They did so by enforcing quarantines for those entering the country. Long ones. And you're subjected to a big fine if your cell phone is pinged outside of your home. Americans would undoubtedly bristle at this. But the irony is that we've run so far from the specter of 1984 that we're now fully in the world of Logan's Run. The old, poor and undesirable should be willing to give up their lives for the convenience of the rest. We had high public officials in the US unironically saying this on national television.

[deborah]

As someone from a country that’s done quite well to date in fighting covid19, I don’t think a country attached to “freedom” necessarily does badly. After all, both Australia and our neighbour New Zealand have done pretty well so far and in any list of free societies we both come out far better than other places. For instance, in the Cato index, we rank 6th and 1st respectively - https://www.cato.org/human-freedom-index-new. We also both rank very highly in lists of successful democracies - ranking 9th and 4th respectively in the EIU list https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index

It is undoubtedly easier for a police state to mandate lockdowns, mask wearing... It’s also easier to impose restrictions in societies where previous infections were contained and mask wearing has become normalised. Asia has managed to successfully contain a number of possible pandemic infections in recent years by normalising mask wearing. The rest of the world could learn from them.

However, where democracy and science is trusted, a free society can choose to follow direction again and again, as we have, and have good results. This is despite continued constant international arrivals bringing covid19 with them and mask wearing having been frowned upon.

[mm1970]

I think the SoCal region also includes San Diego area/county so that's a few more million added to the 25 or 30 million people in that region. I personally think Santa Barbara and Ventura should have their own region included into a seperate central coast region up to San Francisco and not be included in the SoCal region. I know you agree. I don't know the counts today as I just got home but going by the beaches and parks earlier they were all slammed with big groups of people. Although it was a spectacular day so it is hard to stay home. Although would have been nice if there was more social distancing and mask wearing. Sigh...'Murica!

Yep, we were out hiking yesterday too.  At least the majority of people we saw we wearing masks or had something to pull up while passing people.  We probably saw about 15-20 people total on our 1 hr 10 min hike, and most of them within the first 15 minutes and last 10 minutes.

The day before we went on a bluff top walk and there were way more people and far fewer face coverings.

[scottish]

that's true i will begrudgingly concede a red salute to the rogue province of taiwan. may this shared sacrifice and united victory against disease build solidarity and comradeship with its mainland brothers and sisters!

Bah.   I wish the RoC success in avoiding the depredations of their mainland relations.

[sui generis]

Curious with things like hiking...do y'all put masks on when passing more as a social solidarity thing or because there is evidence or belief that you'll be passing enough people with COVID that it could add up to the 15 minutes of cumulative exposure estimated to be required by the CDC? (or vice versa of course - you being one of many with unknowing COVID that may be cumulatively exposing others.) 

We were backpacking and hiking in Death Valley this past week and our cumulative exposure (within say 30 feet) to all human beings on any given day was probably sub 5 minutes, but we kept our masks handy and did a sort of reciprocal thing where if people were approaching us with masks or applying masks, we did too.  If they didn't, we also didn't bother.  Obviously we are pretty much just doing it for social solidarity in this circumstance. I may also be misunderstanding the CDC guidelines about the 15 minutes of cumulative exposure, but I'd be surprised to find out this could actually be dangerous, vs just being important societally to follow the letter (and not just the spirit) of the law in extraordinary times.

On the other side of the coin, we do it both for real and signalling reasons in other cases and observed varying degrees of compliance the few times we stopped for restrooms. We were impressed in the Central Valley to see 100% compliance with proper mask wearing in a truck stop we stopped at.  The Central Valley of CA, for those who don't know, is one of the most conservative and more libertarian places in the state.  Even the two Trumpers we saw (one wearing an actual Trump mask and the other wearing a t-shirt that implied he would murder democrats with his favorite gun(s)) were totally compliant.  Less so in one super isolated desert town we passed through where, to be fair, the couple hundred residents may not know a single person that has had COVID, much less died of it.

[mathlete]

Curious with things like hiking...do y'all put masks on when passing more as a social solidarity thing or because there is evidence or belief that you'll be passing enough people with COVID that it could add up to the 15 minutes of cumulative exposure estimated to be required by the CDC? (or vice versa of course - you being one of many with unknowing COVID that may be cumulatively exposing others.) 

We were backpacking and hiking in Death Valley this past week and our cumulative exposure (within say 30 feet) to all human beings on any given day was probably sub 5 minutes, but we kept our masks handy and did a sort of reciprocal thing where if people were approaching us with masks or applying masks, we did too.  If they didn't, we also didn't bother.  Obviously we are pretty much just doing it for social solidarity in this circumstance. I may also be misunderstanding the CDC guidelines about the 15 minutes of cumulative exposure, but I'd be surprised to find out this could actually be dangerous, vs just being important societally to follow the letter (and not just the spirit) of the law in extraordinary times.

On the other side of the coin, we do it both for real and signalling reasons in other cases and observed varying degrees of compliance the few times we stopped for restrooms. We were impressed in the Central Valley to see 100% compliance with proper mask wearing in a truck stop we stopped at.  The Central Valley of CA, for those who don't know, is one of the most conservative and more libertarian places in the state.  Even the two Trumpers we saw (one wearing an actual Trump mask and the other wearing a t-shirt that implied he would murder democrats with his favorite gun(s)) were totally compliant.  Less so in one super isolated desert town we passed through where, to be fair, the couple hundred residents may not know a single person that has had COVID, much less died of it.

This is a good question. When I was hiking over the Summer, I just didn't put the mask up when passing others. I figured being outdoors and passing for such a limited amount of time didn't really mean anything. But I started doing it later, likely for social solidarity .

[mathlete]

As someone from a country that’s done quite well to date in fighting covid19, I don’t think a country attached to “freedom” necessarily does badly. After all, both Australia and our neighbour New Zealand have done pretty well so far and in any list of free societies we both come out far better than other places. For instance, in the Cato index, we rank 6th and 1st respectively - https://www.cato.org/human-freedom-index-new. We also both rank very highly in lists of successful democracies - ranking 9th and 4th respectively in the EIU list https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index

It is undoubtedly easier for a police state to mandate lockdowns, mask wearing... It’s also easier to impose restrictions in societies where previous infections were contained and mask wearing has become normalised. Asia has managed to successfully contain a number of possible pandemic infections in recent years by normalising mask wearing. The rest of the world could learn from them.

However, where democracy and science is trusted, a free society can choose to follow direction again and again, as we have, and have good results. This is despite continued constant international arrivals bringing covid19 with them and mask wearing having been frowned upon.

Yeah I was probably referring to some American-centric version of freedom where it means that we're "free" to do things like make it really difficult for other people to vote.

[RetiredAt63]

Deborah, our "socialist" Canada (according to Americans who hate our healthcare) is right behind you at #7 (Cato) and just ahead of you (#8) in the democracy index.  We're twin countries!  ;-).

[NotJen]

Curious with things like hiking...do y'all put masks on when passing more as a social solidarity thing or because there is evidence or belief that you'll be passing enough people with COVID that it could add up to the 15 minutes of cumulative exposure estimated to be required by the CDC? (or vice versa of course - you being one of many with unknowing COVID that may be cumulatively exposing others.) 

I did a lot of hiking this year and thought about this a lot.

I pull up a mask when passing others in case I sneeze or cough or breathe really hard in their face while hiking up a steep trail.  It seems to me that could lead to exposure in less than 15 minutes.  Also, I'm fine not talking to people on the trail, but sometimes people want to talk or ask directions, and I prefer to be masked when talking to people these days.  I really don't want to be responsible for passing this virus to anyone, so I take whatever precautions I can in case I'm pre- or asymptomatic.

I also pull up a mask as a reminder to keep away from me, that things are not normal even when we are outside.

I didn't really understand the people who only put a mask on when they passed other people with masks (I saw a lot of these people in the national park I visited this year).  Either you want to protect others or not. 

Most of my masking while hiking was probably totally unnecessary, but I did it anyway because you never know.  It wasn't a big deal or a burden.

When I walk/run in my neighborhood, I don't bother with a mask, since I can always cross the street and get far away, but the same isn't true for trails.

[Shane]

Curious with things like hiking...do y'all put masks on when passing more as a social solidarity thing or because there is evidence or belief that you'll be passing enough people with COVID that it could add up to the 15 minutes of cumulative exposure estimated to be required by the CDC? (or vice versa of course - you being one of many with unknowing COVID that may be cumulatively exposing others.) 

I didn't really understand the people who only put a mask on when they passed other people with masks (I saw a lot of these people in the national park I visited this year).  Either you want to protect others or not.

Just guessing, but probably those people don't believe it makes much of a difference whether they wear a mask, or not, when they're outside. They're just trying to show social solidarity with those who do believe that there is a risk of getting sick. Since passing hikers who aren't wearing masks probably agree with them, they dispense with the polite formality of pulling a mask up over their faces. Makes sense to me.

[ixtap]

Curious with things like hiking...do y'all put masks on when passing more as a social solidarity thing or because there is evidence or belief that you'll be passing enough people with COVID that it could add up to the 15 minutes of cumulative exposure estimated to be required by the CDC? (or vice versa of course - you being one of many with unknowing COVID that may be cumulatively exposing others.) 

I did a lot of hiking this year and thought about this a lot.

I pull up a mask when passing others in case I sneeze or cough or breathe really hard in their face while hiking up a steep trail.  It seems to me that could lead to exposure in less than 15 minutes.  Also, I'm fine not talking to people on the trail, but sometimes people want to talk or ask directions, and I prefer to be masked when talking to people these days.  I really don't want to be responsible for passing this virus to anyone, so I take whatever precautions I can in case I'm pre- or asymptomatic.

I also pull up a mask as a reminder to keep away from me, that things are not normal even when we are outside.

I didn't really understand the people who only put a mask on when they passed other people with masks (I saw a lot of these people in the national park I visited this year).  Either you want to protect others or not. 

Most of my masking while hiking was probably totally unnecessary, but I did it anyway because you never know.  It wasn't a big deal or a burden.

When I walk/run in my neighborhood, I don't bother with a mask, since I can always cross the street and get far away, but the same isn't true for trails.

Around here, the ones who don't wear a mask are the least likely to give space. As such I end up with the mask AND crossing the street :(

We have the more contagious strain in my area. We always knew this was possible and I am willing to take every precaution to protect my whole community, which includes making it safe to get out and exercise.

[NotJen]

Curious with things like hiking...do y'all put masks on when passing more as a social solidarity thing or because there is evidence or belief that you'll be passing enough people with COVID that it could add up to the 15 minutes of cumulative exposure estimated to be required by the CDC? (or vice versa of course - you being one of many with unknowing COVID that may be cumulatively exposing others.) 

I didn't really understand the people who only put a mask on when they passed other people with masks (I saw a lot of these people in the national park I visited this year).  Either you want to protect others or not.

Just guessing, but probably those people don't believe it makes much of a difference whether they wear a mask, or not, when they're outside. They're just trying to show social solidarity with those who do believe that there is a risk of getting sick. Since passing hikers who aren't wearing masks probably agree with them, they dispense with the polite formality of pulling a mask up over their faces. Makes sense to me.

I get that.  To me it just displays that they care too much about what others think of them.  "I'm only doing this so you don't judge me."  Either you believe masks outside are beneficial or not, so either wear them or not.  But that's my own personal filter.

I do not judge people who choose not to wear a mask outside.  Just please don't get close and talk to me without one.

Around here, the ones who don't wear a mask are the least likely to give space. As such I end up with the mask AND crossing the street :(

My neighborhood is not super crowded, I know not everyone is so lucky.  The worst spots are actually the greenways, and I just stopped going to them.

[sui generis]

Curious with things like hiking...do y'all put masks on when passing more as a social solidarity thing or because there is evidence or belief that you'll be passing enough people with COVID that it could add up to the 15 minutes of cumulative exposure estimated to be required by the CDC? (or vice versa of course - you being one of many with unknowing COVID that may be cumulatively exposing others.) 

I didn't really understand the people who only put a mask on when they passed other people with masks (I saw a lot of these people in the national park I visited this year).  Either you want to protect others or not.

Just guessing, but probably those people don't believe it makes much of a difference whether they wear a mask, or not, when they're outside. They're just trying to show social solidarity with those who do believe that there is a risk of getting sick. Since passing hikers who aren't wearing masks probably agree with them, they dispense with the polite formality of pulling a mask up over their faces. Makes sense to me.

I get that.  To me it just displays that they care too much about what others think of them.  "I'm only doing this so you don't judge me."  Either you believe masks outside are beneficial or not, so either wear them or not.  But that's my own personal filter.

Not at all. It says, "I can see that this is important to you, and your feelings matter to me, so I'm going to put on my mask too."

[Shane]

Curious with things like hiking...do y'all put masks on when passing more as a social solidarity thing or because there is evidence or belief that you'll be passing enough people with COVID that it could add up to the 15 minutes of cumulative exposure estimated to be required by the CDC? (or vice versa of course - you being one of many with unknowing COVID that may be cumulatively exposing others.) 

I didn't really understand the people who only put a mask on when they passed other people with masks (I saw a lot of these people in the national park I visited this year).  Either you want to protect others or not.

Just guessing, but probably those people don't believe it makes much of a difference whether they wear a mask, or not, when they're outside. They're just trying to show social solidarity with those who do believe that there is a risk of getting sick. Since passing hikers who aren't wearing masks probably agree with them, they dispense with the polite formality of pulling a mask up over their faces. Makes sense to me.

I get that.  To me it just displays that they care too much about what others think of them.  "I'm only doing this so you don't judge me."  Either you believe masks outside are beneficial or not, so either wear them or not.  But that's my own personal filter.

I do not judge people who choose not to wear a mask outside.  Just please don't get close and talk to me without one.

Maybe, that's the case sometimes, but not, necessarily, always. Personally, when I'm outside, I rarely wear a mask, because I don't think it makes much of a difference. I'd rather just keep my distance. If I'm (rarely) forced to pass close to others who are wearing masks, and I have one handy, I'll often pull it up over my face, not because I "care too much about what others think of" me, but because I recognize that others may have different circumstances than I do, which may be leading them to make a different cost/benefit analysis regarding mask wearing. The reason I pull a mask up over my face is as a sign of respect. I don't know them. They may have just come from a chemotherapy appointment, and their natural immune system might be completely shot. My pulling a mask over my mouth and nose is a sign to passersby that I respect their choice to mask up, even though I don't necessarily feel the need to do the same.

[NotJen]

Maybe, that's the case sometimes, but not, necessarily, always. Personally, when I'm outside, I rarely wear a mask, because I don't think it makes much of a difference. I'd rather just keep my distance. If I'm (rarely) forced to pass close to others who are wearing masks, and I have one handy, I'll often pull it up over my face, not because I "care too much about what others think of" me, but because I recognize that others may have different circumstances than I do, which may be leading them to make a different cost/benefit analysis regarding mask wearing. The reason I pull a mask up over my face is as a sign of respect. I don't know them. They may have just come from a chemotherapy appointment, and their natural immune system might be completely shot. My pulling a mask over my mouth and nose is a sign to passersby that I respect their choice to mask up, even though I don't necessarily feel the need to do the same.

That's fine.  Just seems like a lot of mental work to make that mask/no mask decision all the time.

On uncrowded trails, I wouldn't even notice.  But I witnessed this on a crowded trail with a good bit of visibility of people ahead (sounds like this was never your situation), where some people were constantly up and down with the masks and really left me scratching my head.  This year has really made me notice how much my actions are different from other people's.

[Shane]

Maybe, that's the case sometimes, but not, necessarily, always. Personally, when I'm outside, I rarely wear a mask, because I don't think it makes much of a difference. I'd rather just keep my distance. If I'm (rarely) forced to pass close to others who are wearing masks, and I have one handy, I'll often pull it up over my face, not because I "care too much about what others think of" me, but because I recognize that others may have different circumstances than I do, which may be leading them to make a different cost/benefit analysis regarding mask wearing. The reason I pull a mask up over my face is as a sign of respect. I don't know them. They may have just come from a chemotherapy appointment, and their natural immune system might be completely shot. My pulling a mask over my mouth and nose is a sign to passersby that I respect their choice to mask up, even though I don't necessarily feel the need to do the same.

That's fine.  Just seems like a lot of mental work to make that mask/no mask decision all the time.

On uncrowded trails, I wouldn't even notice.  But I witnessed this on a crowded trail with a good bit of visibility of people ahead (sounds like this was never your situation), where some people were constantly up and down with the masks and really left me scratching my head.  This year has really made me notice how much my actions are different from other people's.

The pandemic offers many interesting opportunities to observe human behavior. A couple of days ago, I masked up and walked into a local sandwich shop, hoping to buy a cheesesteak. There were half a dozen customers all standing around in a small room, apparently waiting for their sandwiches. All the customers were masked, except one guy. Thought for a minute about saying something to the unmasked guy, but then I looked into the back of the shop, where 4 employees were busily, sweatily, preparing customers' food in a tiny, cramped, kitchen, and none of the employees were wearing masks. Nobody jumped to take my order, so I just turned around and quietly left. It just didn't seem worth it. I don't care if everyone had been wearing masks, or not, I still wouldn't have felt comfortable standing around in that totally closed up space with half a dozen other patrons and a few employees, all breathing and rebreathing the same air, over and over again, especially when daily covid deaths in our area are roughly double what they were at the peak last spring. No thanks. I just went home and cooked something in my kitchen, where I know I'm at no risk of getting sick.

[Abe]

New problem in SoCal I hadn’t even thought of as possible in a developed country: some hospitals have so many covid patients on HIgh flow nasal cannula that they can’t increase overall flow in the oxygen lines any higher. That’s truly nuts, and I guess not a good sign for surge capacity. Now oxygen itself is a limiting factor. Or at least ability to get it through the lines without overloading the system.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/02/health/us-coronavirus-saturday/index.html

[HBFIRE]

New problem in SoCal I hadn’t even thought of as possible in a developed country: some hospitals have so many covid patients on HIgh flow nasal cannula that they can’t increase overall flow in the oxygen lines any higher. That’s truly nuts, and I guess not a good sign for surge capacity. Now oxygen itself is a limiting factor. Or at least ability to get it through the lines without overloading the system.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/02/health/us-coronavirus-saturday/index.html

Starting a week ago, if a person goes into cardiac arrest in LA County, paramedics will no longer transport to a hospital if they cannot get a pulse back in the field. That's where we are right now in terms of hospital resources. It is crazy.

[mm1970]

At least locally, we are coming out at 60% close contact and 40% community contact for source of infection.  Theoretically, community spread could be from outdoors and passing someone, even for less than 15 minutes.

So, I wear a mask when walking/ running/ or hiking outdoors, most of the time.  It's hard.  I wear glasses, and even with the silicone insert and the metal wire, my glasses still steam up occasionally.  When we are hiking and I know we are far from others, I will pull it down to avoid that for as long as possible.

Yesterday I made my teen do a neighborhood run masked.  He complained, but there were a ton of people out.  He MAY go to in person school this year.  If he does, he will have to wear a mask the whole time AND do PE while masked.

[LaineyAZ]

...
https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/02/health/us-coronavirus-saturday/index.html

Starting a week ago, if a person goes into cardiac arrest in LA County, paramedics will no longer transport to a hospital if they cannot get a pulse back in the field. That's where we are right now in terms of hospital resources. It is crazy.

But they still need an MD to officially pronounce someone deceased, right?  or do they just take the body right to the morgue?

[Abe]

Houston is over capacity in the ICU again. All the metrics are worsening. My wife is a primary care physician and the majority of patients she is “seeing” (doing telehealth) have covid. They are advised to come to the ER only with life-threatening symptoms. Fever, cough, etc are not enough. They are also advised that they may not be admitted even if necessary due to overload in the hospitals, and people are being placed in cots in the hallways in other ERs (happens sometimes but not this many for this long).

[Abe]

...
https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/02/health/us-coronavirus-saturday/index.html

Starting a week ago, if a person goes into cardiac arrest in LA County, paramedics will no longer transport to a hospital if they cannot get a pulse back in the field. That's where we are right now in terms of hospital resources. It is crazy.

But they still need an MD to officially pronounce someone deceased, right?  or do they just take the body right to the morgue?

Coroner’s office. We only have to pronounce & fill out death certificates for in-hospital deaths. EMS pronounce on out of hospital, coroner writes the death certificate.

[LaineyAZ]

Yep, AZ is right behind Los Angeles.  We're highest in number of new cases per 100,000 residents.
We're number one!

[mathlete]

I hope it's finally setting in that this is not simply a choice of trading personal safety for personal freedom. A pandemic is a public health crisis and taxes public resources.

There exists no endless font of hospital beds and morgue capacity. There's not an endless army of nurses, doctors and support staff waiting to handle the excess morbidity and mortality. 

[mathlete]

I'm largely on team lockdown, but I don't want to root against the Swedish experiment just to be correct. If there is a better path forward, we should know about it.

Agree wholeheartedly. I would much rather Sweden be right. I just don't think they are.

I am actually on team "total lockdown with the National Guard" China style, actually, as I feel this would get us to ZERO infections, no near zero infections in the smallest amount of time (4-6 weeks) leading to the least amount of total deaths and least amount of time in isolation. However, I'm pretty sure this would be a no-go in the USA no matter who was in charge.

Thinking about this a lot recently. I am against a Chinese style authoritarian lockdown because I'm against a Chinese style authoritarian government. But seeing as how something like 40% of my countrymen are unironically on board with overturning the results of a legitimate national election, I feel less strongly about it.

COVID skepticism and slow playing was never about high minded American ideals about liberty. It was always about the freedom from inconvenience. Nobody gives a shit about that other boring crap. 

[alsoknownasDean]

I hope it's finally setting in that this is not simply a choice of trading personal safety for personal freedom. A pandemic is a public health crisis and taxes public resources.

There exists no endless font of hospital beds and morgue capacity. There's not an endless army of nurses, doctors and support staff waiting to handle the excess morbidity and mortality.

If it hasn't settled in to some people after the last ten or so months, I doubt that would change now.

It takes courage and humility to admit that one was wrong.