Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 253699 times)

sui generis

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2950 on: July 08, 2020, 10:20:58 AM »
And again Iím not advocating for major shutdowns, but people are not even trying (at least in my area of the county). Few masks to be seen outside of the hospital and clinics. No distancing in stores or restaurants (Weak substitute for masks). Having huge birthdays in parks.

Agree, HB is a shit fest when it comes to this.  We have a pretty dense population of extreme right wingers that are anti-mask, etc.  And unfortunately, our beach attracts a lot of people during the summer.
Yep.  We have a fair bit of this up here in Santa Barbara too, but it appears that people are maybe starting to try a bit more.  Closing our beaches on July 4 weekend helped.

I guess that I can understand the need to vacation and go places. I want to vacation and go places!  You can do it relatively safely even (one day's drive, take all your own food, rent a private cabin), but...jeez louise, CA is a hot mess.  It seems incredibly selfish and stupid to drive up to a cabin in the Sierras, or to go to Mammoth or whatever because you are tired of where you live.  The absolute worst in my area are the teachers.  They are the ones traveling the most often, probably because they do it every summer.  Our cases are up in this county, they are up all over SO Cal, should you really be traveling?

Parties...I was seeing big parties over weekends, esp 2nd weekend in June, right after graduation.  We went for a weekend hike about 45 min from home, in Los Padres.  There were HUGE parties all along the river.  It hasn't abated either.  I see birthday parties with no masks or distancing on Instagram.  These are parties with 30+ people.

Yeah, it's interesting that I see the same people making shaming posts about masks and then see their beach party from the last weekend where they are not wearing masks and have big group pictures with everyone's arms slung around each other.  I'm sure I'm doing the same cognitively dissonant thing in some ways I don't see myself. But it's really shocking to me to see pictures of people touching or sitting near each other.  It's actually sort of amazing to me how quickly that viseceral shock has been programmed into my system

deborah

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2951 on: July 08, 2020, 10:55:32 AM »
At this point I can't believe anyone is taking Bloop Bloop seriously and still engaging with him.  If you don't have him on literal "ignore user" you should at least be mentally dismissing his posts when you see them.  He didn't have a clue several months ago, and still doesn't.

Is there an ignore user functionality on this forum?
Yes. Up the top is a ďprofileĒ tab. Click on it to get ďmodify profileĒ. The last option in the list is buddy/ignore. You can list people to ignore.

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2952 on: July 08, 2020, 11:11:47 AM »

Also, whether their strategy was "pure-herd immunity" or "herd immunity as byproduct"...it does seem that that is part, as I said, of their strategy:

Quote
A pure herd-immunity approach would simply let COVID-19 burn through the population unhindered, which is not the approach in Sweden, where large crowds are banned and people have been encouraged to practice social distancing. Rather, Tegnell, the head of the Public Health Agency of Sweden, has repeated ad nauseam that the strategy is to slow the spread while achieving herd immunity as a byproduct.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/23/sweden-coronavirus-failure-anders-tegnell-started-long-before-the-pandemic/

I have heard Tegnell repeat ad nauseam that herd immunity is not part of their plan and that it is achievable only with the aid of a vaccine. Again, I find the picture painted of Sweden internationally rather bizarre.

A random example:
https://www.ft.com/content/a2b4c18c-a5e8-4edc-8047-ade4a82a548d

But Mr Tegnell said uncertainty about how long virus immunity would last meant it was unlikely Sweden would reach ďherd immunityĒ, a level of the disease where so many people are infected ó usually about 80 per cent ó that it stops spreading. ďI donít think we or any country in the world will reach herd immunity in the sense that the disease goes away because I donít think this is a disease that goes away,Ē he added.
« Last Edit: July 08, 2020, 11:15:42 AM by habaneroNorway »

gaja

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2953 on: July 08, 2020, 11:46:04 AM »
Please also remember when comparing Swedish statistics to other countries, that they report EVERYTHING. The likelihood of someone dying from corona in Sweden, and it being reported as pneumonia or "old age" is very low. I you look at excess deaths for European countries, you will see that the spike for Sweden is relatively low compared to countries such as Spain, France, and the UK: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/#z-scores-by-country

In the US, several sources estimate the excess death numbers to be 30-50 % higher than the numbers attributed to covid. Of course, there could be other reasons that more people are dying right now, but some part of that is probably due to cause of death not being reported in the same way in different countries. In Sweden, if you die of pneumonia while infected with covid, your death will be registered as a covid death. News from Florida and a couple of other US states suggest that that might not always be the case there. Some claim the number might be as high as 50 %, but there is a bit of sensationalism there. But I'm quite certain the number is substantially higher than in Sweden. And for countries such as Brazil and Russia, I take their statistics with a very large pinch of salt.

I'm not saying Sweden hasn't had any troubles. Norway and Denmark don't have excess deaths, and have a very similar economic situation. But their ranking numbers compared to other countries probably looks worse than it is.

snacky

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2954 on: July 08, 2020, 01:09:46 PM »
I find it strange that Americans are comparing their Covid policy approach to Sweden's when geography and culture and proximity would suggest that comparing to Canada would be much more useful.
Other than a few cities, Canada has largely contained and quashed the covid threat. Where I live there are very few restrictions in place. Nothing that interferes with most peoples' lives, thanks to our low low numbers.
Restrictions and policy responses are mostly decided on the provincial level, not the federal one, like in the USA.

So why the Swedish obsession?

Plina

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2955 on: July 08, 2020, 01:28:15 PM »

Also, whether their strategy was "pure-herd immunity" or "herd immunity as byproduct"...it does seem that that is part, as I said, of their strategy:

Quote
A pure herd-immunity approach would simply let COVID-19 burn through the population unhindered, which is not the approach in Sweden, where large crowds are banned and people have been encouraged to practice social distancing. Rather, Tegnell, the head of the Public Health Agency of Sweden, has repeated ad nauseam that the strategy is to slow the spread while achieving herd immunity as a byproduct.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/23/sweden-coronavirus-failure-anders-tegnell-started-long-before-the-pandemic/

I have heard Tegnell repeat ad nauseam that herd immunity is not part of their plan and that it is achievable only with the aid of a vaccine. Again, I find the picture painted of Sweden internationally rather bizarre.

A random example:
https://www.ft.com/content/a2b4c18c-a5e8-4edc-8047-ade4a82a548d

But Mr Tegnell said uncertainty about how long virus immunity would last meant it was unlikely Sweden would reach ďherd immunityĒ, a level of the disease where so many people are infected ó usually about 80 per cent ó that it stops spreading. ďI donít think we or any country in the world will reach herd immunity in the sense that the disease goes away because I donít think this is a disease that goes away,Ē he added.

What makes the first quote even more interesting is that is obviously written by a swede based in Paris. Don't journalist need to actually listen to what people are saying instead of making things up? The message from Tegnell and his colleagues has been during the whole pandemic that we are NOT aiming for herd immunity. Their mistake was that they and our politicians had a naive picture of the quality our elder care and that resulted in a lot of deaths that could have been avoided if the politicians had given a shit about elderly. We are playing for the long haul so that we can sustain the social distancing for years if needed because if someone thinks everything will soon be back to normal they are living in utopia or the White House.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2956 on: July 08, 2020, 01:33:05 PM »
I find it strange that Americans are comparing their Covid policy approach to Sweden's when geography and culture and proximity would suggest that comparing to Canada would be much more useful.
Other than a few cities, Canada has largely contained and quashed the covid threat. Where I live there are very few restrictions in place. Nothing that interferes with most peoples' lives, thanks to our low low numbers.
Restrictions and policy responses are mostly decided on the provincial level, not the federal one, like in the USA.

So why the Swedish obsession?

I can't remember whether you were around earlier in these discussions (as in March/April), but there was a lot of discussion and several claims that by not shutting down, Sweden would avoid the economic fallout of the pandemic. These claims were then used by a few to question whether anyone should shut down at all or whether it would be economically better to continue life as normal and let the virus burn through the population.

Obviously there are a couple of issues here. One: Swedish society is much different from US or Australian society. Social/physical distancing seems to happen more naturally there. Two: Given the high infectivity and virulence of this virus and all the relative unknowns, it seems unlikely that letting it roll through the population unchecked wouldn't have had equally catastrophic effects on the economy in the US.

So far, Sweden's economy seems to have taken a similar hit as the economies of its nearest and most comparable Scandinavian neighbors, all of which locked down and had lower death tolls. That was my point in posting the NY Times analysis.

Yes, it is still early. We're at the end of the beginning of this pandemic, not the beginning of the end. Quite frankly, none of us knows or can predict the fallout in any given country over the next decade.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2957 on: July 08, 2020, 01:34:20 PM »
I find it strange that Americans are comparing their Covid policy approach to Sweden's when geography and culture and proximity would suggest that comparing to Canada would be much more useful.
Other than a few cities, Canada has largely contained and quashed the covid threat. Where I live there are very few restrictions in place. Nothing that interferes with most peoples' lives, thanks to our low low numbers.
Restrictions and policy responses are mostly decided on the provincial level, not the federal one, like in the USA.

So why the Swedish obsession?

Canada has an extremely low population density of 4 people per Km2.  We can compare Alaska to it (which has actually performed better than Canada as a whole), but the US as a whole has a population density of 36 people per Km2 which is a closer comparison to Sweden's of 24 per Km2.  Of course there are a bunch of other factors too, but population density is a major one.  Because the US is vastly spread out and geographically/demographically diverse, it probably makes more sense to compare regions of it to European countries.  For example, California, on its own, can be compared independently.
« Last Edit: July 08, 2020, 01:40:56 PM by HBFIRE »

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2958 on: July 08, 2020, 01:58:51 PM »
Sweden is actually pretty urban. Population density numbers hide the fact that in a very large part of the country no one lives. Around 30% of the population live in the 10 largest cities, more of you extend to the urban area around them. Greater Stockholm alone has over 20% of the total population.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2959 on: July 08, 2020, 02:00:08 PM »
Sweden is actually pretty urban. Population density numbers hide the fact that in a very large part of the country no one lives. Around 30% of the population live in the 10 largest cities, more of you extend to the urban area around them. Greater Stockholm alone has over 20% of the total population.

Yeah, the US is like this too -- probably makes more sense to compare cities rather than entire countries.

elaine amj

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2960 on: July 08, 2020, 02:06:14 PM »
But it's really shocking to me to see pictures of people touching or sitting near each other.  It's actually sort of amazing to me how quickly that viseceral shock has been programmed into my system

I hear ya! I cringe watching movies these days - they get up soooo close to each other's faces when they talk!

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Rosy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2961 on: July 08, 2020, 02:24:08 PM »
It's almost like rational, reasonable people don't want to die and don't want their loved ones to die and are taking precautions themselves which are detrimental to the ever expanding economy.

So that's why Florida is experiencing no detrimental economic impacts from this pandemic!

LOL:)

Oh yeah, the US is doing just fine - since Jan 21, 2020:

99 days to reach one million cases
43 days to reach two million cases
28 days to reach three million cases

... and counting!

So what does it mean for Florida that we had a 14-day avg Infection Rate of 23% - several days like today at 27% IR?
Predominantly cases are in their twenties and thirties. The average age on Monday was 20 years old.
I think if the old people were out and about - they represent 27% of the population of the state of Florida - we would be well past capacity, period.

In my immediate area, the hospitals have reached capacity or are within 4%; with the adjacent county still showing 10% but filling up by the hour.
It scares me to know that if I became ill there might be no place for me to go.

Who knows our governor's wishful thinking may prove true we may well be near our peak, we already had 11,400 cases in one day (last week).
That case number eclipsed even NY for the highest case number in one day - in the entire country.

We are at 9,989 cases today - we'll see how it all goes.

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2962 on: July 08, 2020, 02:39:58 PM »
I find it strange that Americans are comparing their Covid policy approach to Sweden's when geography and culture and proximity would suggest that comparing to Canada would be much more useful.
Other than a few cities, Canada has largely contained and quashed the covid threat. Where I live there are very few restrictions in place. Nothing that interferes with most peoples' lives, thanks to our low low numbers.
Restrictions and policy responses are mostly decided on the provincial level, not the federal one, like in the USA.

So why the Swedish obsession?

Canada has an extremely low population density of 4 people per Km2.  We can compare Alaska to it (which has actually performed better than Canada as a whole), but the US as a whole has a population density of 36 people per Km2 which is a closer comparison to Sweden's of 24 per Km2.  Of course there are a bunch of other factors too, but population density is a major one.  Because the US is vastly spread out and geographically/demographically diverse, it probably makes more sense to compare regions of it to European countries.  For example, California, on its own, can be compared independently.

I think some of our advantage is that most of Canada is colder than the US.  We were on our strictest lockdown during some pretty chilly weather this year, so there was less natural inclination to stray from guidelines that in the warmer weather places of the US.

wenchsenior

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2963 on: July 08, 2020, 02:44:56 PM »
Ah, Texas, you make me so proud... It took four months to get to 100,000 Covid cases, and then about 3 weeks to double that number. 

mcneally

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2964 on: July 08, 2020, 03:32:39 PM »
Canada has an extremely low population density of 4 people per Km2.  We can compare Alaska to it (which has actually performed better than Canada as a whole), but the US as a whole has a population density of 36 people per Km2 which is a closer comparison to Sweden's of 24 per Km2.
85-90% of Canadians live within 100 miles of the US. Excluding the other ~90% of largely uninhabited land, Canada and US have similar population density.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2965 on: July 08, 2020, 03:35:45 PM »
Canada has an extremely low population density of 4 people per Km2.  We can compare Alaska to it (which has actually performed better than Canada as a whole), but the US as a whole has a population density of 36 people per Km2 which is a closer comparison to Sweden's of 24 per Km2.
85-90% of Canadians live within 100 miles of the US. Excluding the other ~90% of largely uninhabited land, Canada and US have similar population density.

Yes. Like I said, it would make more sense to compare cities or regions with similar population sizes and densities. For example, Metro Houston and Greater Toronto both have populations between 6 and 7 million.

kenmoremmm

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2966 on: July 08, 2020, 09:45:45 PM »
the optimist in me looks at the NY data and says: hmm, it looks like a curve of that of a "successful" country. it spiked, and has trended down and flat for a long time.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/new-york-coronavirus-cases.html

that the rest of the US is largely increasing is a product of when the virus got there and when restrictions were lifted. once the surge occurs and many people die and hospitals are overrun, it should be looking like NY state (largely influenced by NYC).

i think this is the inevitable outcome unless a vaccine is created within the 1st 18 months since the outbreak.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2967 on: July 09, 2020, 06:40:23 AM »
Yikes, so the Victorian government has now completed mandatory covid testing for residents in housing commission high-rises, and of 2,515 residents tested, "at least" (because not all results have been returned) 158 have tested positive. That's over 6%!

In the worst-affected high-rise, there was an 11% positive rate.

So this is how the outbreak spreads - in small, virulent bursts. I reckon the median transmission number is either 0 or 1, but the mean is one point something, and I'm sure the top quartile would be significantly higher. It's not like everyone in the population transmits to 2 people. Most transmit to none, a few to 1 or 2, and a small minority go on to infect their whole family/neighbourhood cluster.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2968 on: July 09, 2020, 06:46:54 AM »
Yikes, so the Victorian government has now completed mandatory covid testing for residents in housing commission high-rises, and of 2,515 residents tested, "at least" (because not all results have been returned) 158 have tested positive. That's over 6%!

In the worst-affected high-rise, there was an 11% positive rate.

So this is how the outbreak spreads - in small, virulent bursts. I reckon the median transmission number is either 0 or 1, but the mean is one point something, and I'm sure the top quartile would be significantly higher. It's not like everyone in the population transmits to 2 people. Most transmit to none, a few to 1 or 2, and a small minority go on to infect their whole family/neighbourhood cluster.

Yep! And you donít know whoís going to be the superspreader. Could be someone at the next table in an over-capacity wine bar.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2969 on: July 09, 2020, 07:13:56 AM »
Yikes, so the Victorian government has now completed mandatory covid testing for residents in housing commission high-rises, and of 2,515 residents tested, "at least" (because not all results have been returned) 158 have tested positive. That's over 6%!

In the worst-affected high-rise, there was an 11% positive rate.

So this is how the outbreak spreads - in small, virulent bursts. I reckon the median transmission number is either 0 or 1, but the mean is one point something, and I'm sure the top quartile would be significantly higher. It's not like everyone in the population transmits to 2 people. Most transmit to none, a few to 1 or 2, and a small minority go on to infect their whole family/neighbourhood cluster.

Yep! And you donít know whoís going to be the superspreader. Could be someone at the next table in an over-capacity wine bar.

Yeah. Especially if he goes home to the other side of the city to the housing commission where he lives in cramped quarters with 500 other residents.

PoutineLover

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2970 on: July 09, 2020, 07:20:05 AM »
The way I see it, the people who have the option to stay home should, so that the people who need to go out to do their jobs can do so more safely.

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2971 on: July 09, 2020, 07:25:59 AM »
Yikes, so the Victorian government has now completed mandatory covid testing for residents in housing commission high-rises, and of 2,515 residents tested, "at least" (because not all results have been returned) 158 have tested positive. That's over 6%!

In the worst-affected high-rise, there was an 11% positive rate.

So this is how the outbreak spreads - in small, virulent bursts. I reckon the median transmission number is either 0 or 1, but the mean is one point something, and I'm sure the top quartile would be significantly higher. It's not like everyone in the population transmits to 2 people. Most transmit to none, a few to 1 or 2, and a small minority go on to infect their whole family/neighbourhood cluster.

Yep! And you donít know whoís going to be the superspreader. Could be someone at the next table in an over-capacity wine bar.

Yeah. Especially if he goes home to the other side of the city to the housing commission where he lives in cramped quarters with 500 other residents.

Or if he doesn't live in that area but brings the infection back to his own district unknowingly and infects the handful of people with whom he comes into contact, who then go on to infect their families. Let's not pretend that it was okay for anyone to be in a crowded wine bar during a pandemic.

Paper Chaser

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2972 on: July 09, 2020, 08:13:55 AM »


Yeah. Especially if he goes home to the other side of the city to the housing commission where he lives in cramped quarters with 500 other residents.

Or if he doesn't live in that area but brings the infection back to his own district unknowingly and infects the handful of people with whom he comes into contact, who then go on to infect their families. Let's not pretend that it was okay for anyone to be in a crowded wine bar during a pandemic.

According to the timeline of his posts, Bloop went to the wine bar on Jun 25th.
According to ourworldindata, Australia reported 29 confirmed cases in the entire country that day and hadn't had more than 30 cases in a single day since mid April:
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/australia?country=~AUS

Nobody ever needs to go to a wine bar, but I can understand wanting to socialize after a lockdown and thinking that the risk was low. The odds of being a spreader, or contacting a spreader in that situation have to be exceedingly low.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2020, 08:16:21 AM by Paper Chaser »

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2973 on: July 09, 2020, 10:54:47 AM »
Yikes, so the Victorian government has now completed mandatory covid testing for residents in housing commission high-rises, and of 2,515 residents tested, "at least" (because not all results have been returned) 158 have tested positive. That's over 6%!

In the worst-affected high-rise, there was an 11% positive rate.

So this is how the outbreak spreads - in small, virulent bursts. I reckon the median transmission number is either 0 or 1, but the mean is one point something, and I'm sure the top quartile would be significantly higher. It's not like everyone in the population transmits to 2 people. Most transmit to none, a few to 1 or 2, and a small minority go on to infect their whole family/neighbourhood cluster.
And those people work in the grocery stores, delivery services, care homes, Uber, airports, bars and everything else that is open.

And so continues the spread.


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obstinate

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2974 on: July 09, 2020, 10:57:23 AM »
Nobody ever needs to go to a wine bar, but I can understand wanting to socialize after a lockdown and thinking that the risk was low. The odds of being a spreader, or contacting a spreader in that situation have to be exceedingly low.
The people who actually do end up having the virus and actually do end up spreading it make the exact same calculation based on exactly the same data and come to the same conclusion. If everyone thinks the way Bloop does, you cannot stop the virus. End of story.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2020, 11:00:30 AM by obstinate »

Paper Chaser

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2975 on: July 09, 2020, 11:38:52 AM »
If everyone thinks the way Bloop does, you cannot stop the virus. End of story.

Clearly not everyone thinks the way Bloop does. If this thread has taught us anything, it's that.

I don't get much of any Australian news, but in early May, they were declaring South Australia to be pretty much COVID free as they confidently began easing restrictions:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/01/asia/australia-coronavirus-success-intl-hnk/index.html

"No more cases in South Australia. This is a landmark for us," South Australia Chief Public Health Officer Nicola Spurrier said with a big smile during a press briefing on Wednesday.
"I think many people are surprised in Australia at how well we have done. Really, when you look across all the states and territories, this is the safest place to be in the world, perhaps other than New Zealand," she said.


So, new case numbers (for the entire country) had been in the single or low double digits per day for over a month. And you had Government health officials publicly saying that the country is nearly the safest spot in the world, and backing that up by easing restrictions.
It's hard for me to fault Bloop on this one. That situation is different than going to a winebar in a city that's overwhelmed or has hundreds or thousands of new cases per day like many in the US.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2020, 11:44:49 AM by Paper Chaser »

habanero

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2976 on: July 09, 2020, 12:34:57 PM »
So you freak out becuase Bloop went to a wine bar during a period in which Australia had all of <30 confirmed new cases and he didn't even wear a mask while doing so? Adjusted for population that's way fewer cases we have had every single day since reopening, bars and restaurants are full (albeit with reduced capacity due to measures) and virtually noone wears a mask over here. Are we a nation full of irresponsible, reckless, selfish Bloops?

(btw hospital numbers keep going down and are super low (7 people in hospital at mom of which 2 in ICU of which 1 on a ventilator) and today was the first week with zero Covid-19 deaths here).

obstinate

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2977 on: July 09, 2020, 01:10:48 PM »
If everyone thinks the way Bloop does, you cannot stop the virus. End of story.

Clearly not everyone thinks the way Bloop does. If this thread has taught us anything, it's that.
Obviously. Thank goodness for that. The point is that if everyone did behave the same way he does, we'd get more virus. That anyone behaves the way he does is what allows the virus to fester and prevents its elimination.

He has not happened to spread it, so far. Well enough. That absolves him of little. A reckless driver doesn't kill someone every time they go out on the road. But reckless driving is immoral because of what it can statistically be expected to lead to, not because of the outcome of any individual driving session.

Are we a nation full of irresponsible, reckless, selfish Bloops?
If you're following the rules your society has set for handling the virus, I guess it's hard to fault you. If you're flouting the rules while benefiting from other people who are doing a better job adhering to them, that's where it crosses over into selfish behavior, IMO.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2020, 01:16:47 PM by obstinate »

Paper Chaser

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2978 on: July 09, 2020, 02:09:07 PM »
If everyone thinks the way Bloop does, you cannot stop the virus. End of story.

Clearly not everyone thinks the way Bloop does. If this thread has taught us anything, it's that.
Obviously. Thank goodness for that. The point is that if everyone did behave the same way he does, we'd get more virus. That anyone behaves the way he does is what allows the virus to fester and prevents its elimination.

He has not happened to spread it, so far. Well enough. That absolves him of little. A reckless driver doesn't kill someone every time they go out on the road. But reckless driving is immoral because of what it can statistically be expected to lead to, not because of the outcome of any individual driving session.




Are we a nation full of irresponsible, reckless, selfish Bloops?
If you're following the rules your society has set for handling the virus, I guess it's hard to fault you. If you're flouting the rules while benefiting from other people who are doing a better job adhering to them, that's where it crosses over into selfish behavior, IMO.

Reckless driving is illegal. I don't think anything Bloop did was illegal. Seems like Bloop was "following the rules society has set for handling this virus." If the government in Bloop's location had more or less declared COVID to be defeated, and lifted restrictions preventing him/her from doing what they did, then I'm not seeing much wrong with their actions.

It's silly for people in a much different situation, on the other side of the globe to assume everything is the same everywhere. It's silly when posters from NZ or Aus act like the rest of the world is the same as their situation, and it's no different when Americans and Canadians do it the other direction. That's not to say that nothing can be learned, but we have wildly different situations from one county to another in the US, and you (collective 'you') want to apply the situation where you live to somebody on another hemisphere? To chastise somebody on the other side of the planet through the lens of a specific situation in the US is pointless, and the only reason it's happening is because of Bloop's reputation, not the facts of the situation. Posters are reacting emotionally because of their bias towards the poster.

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2979 on: July 09, 2020, 02:44:46 PM »
I do not know Bloop, I do not follow bloops posts other than the ones here as they stood out to me as crass and uncaring of others so I felt compelled to respond.

I see bloops attitude much the same as people in the early years of the HIV / AIDs crisis or people that have it well off not caring about others plights because it does not affect them.

While I get the difference in the situation in bloops part of the world the attitude that comes across in bloops post is what I take issue with.


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mm1970

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2980 on: July 09, 2020, 02:50:34 PM »
Quote
So, new case numbers (for the entire country) had been in the single or low double digits per day for over a month. And you had Government health officials publicly saying that the country is nearly the safest spot in the world, and backing that up by easing restrictions.
It's hard for me to fault Bloop on this one. That situation is different than going to a winebar in a city that's overwhelmed or has hundreds or thousands of new cases per day like many in the US.

Yep, location and context matters.  I'm not going to fault local friends who are going camping remotely...packing all their own food, not staying in developed campgrounds, distancing from others.  People who are traveling to other cities to stay in hotels or condos, eating out, shopping in public?  Eh, not a bright idea.

Likewise...the wine bars.  Our outdoor wine bars are open.  You will not see me at one, because our daily increases in cases are higher than they have ever been.  Our area opened up too soon.  I will fault people I see on a busy street without a mask.  I don't understand people who want to eat at a restaurant, even though only outdoors is allowed right now.

However, pack up and move to a different area where cases are low to non-existent?  Different story.

dougules

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2981 on: July 09, 2020, 02:54:50 PM »
Whatever your thoughts on Bloop personally, if a country gets the virus under control, you can relax a lot of precautions.  The risk of a packed wine bar in Australia is completely different than the risk of a packed wine bar in the US because the situations of the two countries are polar opposites when it comes to the virus.  Notice that discovering a cluster of 158 people having the virus is big news in Australia when it would just be another Thursday in the US.  Australia is still going to have to have targeted local shut downs here and there, but the underlying implication is that most of the country will be able to live in semi-normalcy most of the time.  That's the whole point of bringing the pandemic under control.  As a side bonus, Australia probably will be better off economically for it in the long run, too.  Other countries can make it to that place, too. 

deborah

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2982 on: July 09, 2020, 03:11:47 PM »
Actually, the rules here in his state said, at the time, that there must be social distancing, that bars were limited to serving meals (and drinks, but only with meals) to customers who had to remain seated, and that you should do several other things that bloop was boasting in the forum about not doing. People were also not supposed to be doing some of the things that he was boasting of doing. They also now say that he isnít supposed to be doing things that he is still doing, even though his state is in lockdown because itís gone over 100 cases a day for the past few.

Remember that itís the middle of winter here, and where bloop lives gets most of its rain as drizzle in winter, so everyone will be inside most of the time.

Both my aged parents are also in bloopís state. Theyíre in their 90s, so are highly susceptible. Because of the state lockdown, I wonít be able to visit them for another six weeks. They have been declining. I would like to go there to help get dad a wheelchair, as he has stopped being able to use a walker over the last couple of weeks. Fortunately, Iíve been able to get them more appropriate care when it became available earlier in this pandemic, when I could get approval to visit them for caring purposes. I could get that approval again, but Iíd have to quarantine for two weeks when I get home again, and my SO is also highly susceptible.

As bloop has boasted here of his flouting of the rules, I would be surprised if he hadnít been boasting of this to other people in his state, and encouraging them to flout rules too. If thatís the case, he could bear some responsibility for the lockdown.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2020, 04:06:48 PM by deborah »

Gin1984

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2983 on: July 09, 2020, 05:43:33 PM »
The way I see it, the people who have the option to stay home should, so that the people who need to go out to do their jobs can do so more safely.
I agree!

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2984 on: July 09, 2020, 07:51:43 PM »


As bloop has boasted here of his flouting of the rules, I would be surprised if he hadnít been boasting of this to other people in his state, and encouraging them to flout rules too. If thatís the case, he could bear some responsibility for the lockdown.

Bloop Bloop has boasted of flouting the rules, and spent MANY posts justifying why he should be able to do so. The bit that makes it so absolutely ridiculous is that he's now whining about other people behaving exactly as he did, and the consequences they all now have to suffer....... and yet he's still trying to justify his flouting of the rules! Bloop should be able to do as he likes but how dare other people feel the same! Absolutely moronic behaviour from everyone involved, and now Victoria's in lockdown.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2985 on: July 09, 2020, 11:25:34 PM »
Bloop's a lawyer, he didn't break the letter of any rules, he just brutally violated the spirit of them. Likewise, 99% of the people on this website follow the letter but not the spirit of tax and investment laws, so they can minimise their taxes and maximise their income. That is to say, people work in their own self-interest even when it might compromise the public good. Bloop goes to his wine bar and passes on his infection and makes someone sick, you do a dodgy tax deduction giving you $1,000 extra this year and some hospital is unable to buy sufficient PPE which makes someone sick.

Let he who is without self-interest cast the first stone.


Here in Victoria, a pair of paramedics saw two people getting 20 KFC meals and dobbed them in to the cops, who tracked down their number plate, followed them, and found them having a surprise birthday party in violation of the current restrictions. A $1,600 fine was issued to each person there. But... what were the paramedics doing at KFC? Junk food is unhealthy, as they know since they go to cardiac events all the time. So they are knowingly harming their own health, which - with our public healthcare system - will cause a financial cost to the rest of the community.


Obviously, Ambulance Victoria needs a Healthy Living Code, and any members of the public who see paramedics eating junk food and lounging about slothfully should be able to dob them in!


Alternately, each of us acts according to our sense and conscience, and doesn't run around scolding others for their misdeeds and dobbing them into the state like the DDR.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2020, 11:29:19 PM by Kyle Schuant »

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2986 on: July 09, 2020, 11:41:38 PM »
Nobody ever needs to go to a wine bar, but I can understand wanting to socialize after a lockdown and thinking that the risk was low. The odds of being a spreader, or contacting a spreader in that situation have to be exceedingly low.
The people who actually do end up having the virus and actually do end up spreading it make the exact same calculation based on exactly the same data and come to the same conclusion. If everyone thinks the way Bloop does, you cannot stop the virus. End of story.

You are conflating attitude with actions. Yeah, I'll be frank, I don't give a fuck about the virus (although the escalating numbers in recent days have made my care factor go from 0/10 to 3/10, so maybe that's changing). However, a lot of people are criticising my indifference and confusing that with my actual actions.

When I went to the wine bar, it was completely permissible. Bars had reopened. The lockdown had ended. I am no longer going to any bars or cafes, because they're all closed. If I go on a date now it's a "walking date" (which is permissible, and has negligible chance of infection). If I get to know the other person well enough we might go to my place or her place but that is also permitted too for romantic partners.

Anyway, even putting all that aside, no, it's wrong to say, as another person did in this thread:

Quote
The bit that makes it so absolutely ridiculous is that he's now whining about other people behaving exactly as he did,

Shit no, I don't give a fuck if other people went to wine bars and if that's how the virus spread.

But that's not how it spread. It spread because of quarantine hotel workers having sex with patients. Because of massive extended family get-togethers after a religious holiday. Because of cramped living quarters. In fact the genomic sequencing nidicates that a huge proportion of our NW cluster might have come from one super spreader.

You can't say that me deciding that socialising in a wine bar is okay (in fact, it was lawful) is the same as someone at a quarantine hotel deciding not to take PPE measures as part of his work (unlawful), or deciding to have a huge family get-together (unlawful). Even putting aside the "legality" of it, they're just very different types of risks. It's like the difference between driving fast on an empty country road and driving fast through a pedestrian zone.

Or as Homer Simpson said best, "Just because I don't care, doesn't mean I don't understand." Don't conflate my subjective indifference with the objective seriousness of my conduct.

alsoknownasDean

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2987 on: July 10, 2020, 12:16:39 AM »
You are conflating attitude with actions. Yeah, I'll be frank, I don't give a fuck about the virus (although the escalating numbers in recent days have made my care factor go from 0/10 to 3/10, so maybe that's changing). However, a lot of people are criticising my indifference and confusing that with my actual actions.

Yeah I think 3/10 is probably on the low side. Then again, I'm in one of the postcodes that was locked down a week before the rest of the city. I've barely been more than about 3km from home in that time, and I'm carrying around a bottle of hand sanitiser whenever I leave home. I'm also reviewing when I go to the supermarket so I can go in quieter hours, and considering getting a mask for the times I can't.

One super spreader can cover a wide area. Imagine if, say, a courier driver or Uber driver gets it. They're going all over town. What if someone working at Southern Cross or Flinders St station has it?

A month ago, sure, things were different, and I probably would have also gone to the pub or whatever. When it's five cases a day and steady, the approach is going to be different compared to when the daily number of cases is triple figures and rising.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2020, 12:19:07 AM by alsoknownasDean »

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2988 on: July 10, 2020, 02:22:59 AM »
Nobody ever needs to go to a wine bar, but I can understand wanting to socialize after a lockdown and thinking that the risk was low. The odds of being a spreader, or contacting a spreader in that situation have to be exceedingly low.
The people who actually do end up having the virus and actually do end up spreading it make the exact same calculation based on exactly the same data and come to the same conclusion. If everyone thinks the way Bloop does, you cannot stop the virus. End of story.

You are conflating attitude with actions. Yeah, I'll be frank, I don't give a fuck about the virus (although the escalating numbers in recent days have made my care factor go from 0/10 to 3/10, so maybe that's changing). However, a lot of people are criticising my indifference and confusing that with my actual actions.

When I went to the wine bar, it was completely permissible. Bars had reopened. The lockdown had ended. I am no longer going to any bars or cafes, because they're all closed. If I go on a date now it's a "walking date" (which is permissible, and has negligible chance of infection). If I get to know the other person well enough we might go to my place or her place but that is also permitted too for romantic partners.

Anyway, even putting all that aside, no, it's wrong to say, as another person did in this thread:

Quote
The bit that makes it so absolutely ridiculous is that he's now whining about other people behaving exactly as he did,

Shit no, I don't give a fuck if other people went to wine bars and if that's how the virus spread.

But that's not how it spread. It spread because of quarantine hotel workers having sex with patients. Because of massive extended family get-togethers after a religious holiday. Because of cramped living quarters. In fact the genomic sequencing nidicates that a huge proportion of our NW cluster might have come from one super spreader.

You can't say that me deciding that socialising in a wine bar is okay (in fact, it was lawful) is the same as someone at a quarantine hotel deciding not to take PPE measures as part of his work (unlawful), or deciding to have a huge family get-together (unlawful). Even putting aside the "legality" of it, they're just very different types of risks. It's like the difference between driving fast on an empty country road and driving fast through a pedestrian zone.

Or as Homer Simpson said best, "Just because I don't care, doesn't mean I don't understand." Don't conflate my subjective indifference with the objective seriousness of my conduct.

Dude, you've shown, and continue to show, a huge lack of understanding of your own situation and other people's on this board. Most people here have put that down to delusion or selfishness. You're the guy that thinks he can speed because he knows the roads. Well, great job. Enjoy your lockdown.

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2989 on: July 10, 2020, 03:11:45 AM »
Bloop goes to his wine bar and passes on his infection and makes someone sick, you do a dodgy tax deduction giving you $1,000 extra this year and some hospital is unable to buy sufficient PPE which makes someone sick.

Let he who is without self-interest cast the first stone.

Iíve only ever ďcheatedĒ on my taxes once. There was one year where my tax debt came out to about $0.55. I may have claimed a $5 work deduction in order to turn it into a very small refund. I just didnít want the hassle of paying that..

Otherwise yes I do pay all the tax I have to. All $100,000 or so this year across Federal, State and Local. There arenít really that many things I could claim anyway... Iíll take the 80c an hour WFH deduction, but otherwise work pays for everything.

(Stamp duty is a bitch).

Some of us actually do the right thing. And we pay more for it because of people who decide the value of a dollar is worth more than the value of acting ethically.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2020, 03:14:27 AM by marty998 »

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2990 on: July 10, 2020, 03:17:42 AM »
I didn't say "cheat", I said "minimise." Most of us follow the letter of taxation law, not the spirit. That's why Australia has 6,000 pages of income tax legislation - to make sure the letters are as comprehensive as possible.

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2991 on: July 10, 2020, 03:29:56 AM »
Well... you said dodgy. Thatís not minimising, thatís cheating.

Like how someone here has proudly professed to claiming their sportscar as a business tax deduction even though they spend most of their time driving it for fun on weekends...

Kris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2992 on: July 10, 2020, 07:00:17 AM »
Nobody ever needs to go to a wine bar, but I can understand wanting to socialize after a lockdown and thinking that the risk was low. The odds of being a spreader, or contacting a spreader in that situation have to be exceedingly low.
The people who actually do end up having the virus and actually do end up spreading it make the exact same calculation based on exactly the same data and come to the same conclusion. If everyone thinks the way Bloop does, you cannot stop the virus. End of story.

You are conflating attitude with actions. Yeah, I'll be frank, I don't give a fuck about the virus (although the escalating numbers in recent days have made my care factor go from 0/10 to 3/10, so maybe that's changing). However, a lot of people are criticising my indifference and confusing that with my actual actions.

When I went to the wine bar, it was completely permissible. Bars had reopened. The lockdown had ended. I am no longer going to any bars or cafes, because they're all closed. If I go on a date now it's a "walking date" (which is permissible, and has negligible chance of infection). If I get to know the other person well enough we might go to my place or her place but that is also permitted too for romantic partners.

Anyway, even putting all that aside, no, it's wrong to say, as another person did in this thread:

Quote
The bit that makes it so absolutely ridiculous is that he's now whining about other people behaving exactly as he did,

Shit no, I don't give a fuck if other people went to wine bars and if that's how the virus spread.

But that's not how it spread. It spread because of quarantine hotel workers having sex with patients. Because of massive extended family get-togethers after a religious holiday. Because of cramped living quarters. In fact the genomic sequencing nidicates that a huge proportion of our NW cluster might have come from one super spreader.

You can't say that me deciding that socialising in a wine bar is okay (in fact, it was lawful) is the same as someone at a quarantine hotel deciding not to take PPE measures as part of his work (unlawful), or deciding to have a huge family get-together (unlawful). Even putting aside the "legality" of it, they're just very different types of risks. It's like the difference between driving fast on an empty country road and driving fast through a pedestrian zone.

Or as Homer Simpson said best, "Just because I don't care, doesn't mean I don't understand." Don't conflate my subjective indifference with the objective seriousness of my conduct.

Itís spread by other people, guys. Not Bloop.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2993 on: July 10, 2020, 07:18:21 AM »
WTF does following the "spirit" of taxation laws even mean?

Phenix

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2994 on: July 10, 2020, 07:34:02 AM »
WTF does following the "spirit" of taxation laws even mean?

Millionaires who retired early taking ACA subsidies meant for low income earners who wouldn't be able to afford insurance otherwise comes to mind.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2995 on: July 10, 2020, 07:45:50 AM »
Those millionaires are low income though.  If that was the intent and "spirit" of the law, why don't the law makers just make that the actual letter of the law since they wrote it?

DadJokes

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2996 on: July 10, 2020, 07:57:10 AM »
Those millionaires are low income though.  If that was the intent and "spirit" of the law, why don't the law makers just make that the actual letter of the law since they wrote it?

I think it's fair to say that taking ACA subsidies because you retired early and are manipulating your is violating the "spirit of the law." It certainly wouldn't stop me from doing it, since I find the system in place to be utterly ridiculous. Why on earth have we tied health insurance to employment in this country?

Another example might be retiring early and keeping income low to get college financial aid for your child.

The reason Washington hasn't made that impossible is probably a combination of reasons: 1) too small of a portion of the population is taking advantage for it to matter; 2) it would be difficult if not impossible to single out early retirees without negatively impacting other groups that do need subsidies/financial aid; and 3) Washington is dysfunctional and can't fix anything.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2997 on: July 10, 2020, 08:22:32 AM »
Alternately: the loopholes in the law benefit someone, and are designed to benefit someone, so that the someone will vote for them.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2998 on: July 10, 2020, 08:39:55 AM »
I'd like another week of data that isn't polluted by a holiday weekend in order to confirm, but it really looks likes US deaths are on the rise again, after falling/leveling out for about 2.5 months.


bigblock440

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2999 on: July 10, 2020, 09:40:44 AM »
Those millionaires are low income though.  If that was the intent and "spirit" of the law, why don't the law makers just make that the actual letter of the law since they wrote it?

I think it's fair to say that taking ACA subsidies because you retired early and are manipulating your is violating the "spirit of the law." It certainly wouldn't stop me from doing it, since I find the system in place to be utterly ridiculous. Why on earth have we tied health insurance to employment in this country?


Why?  Because in WW2 there was a labor shortage, and in order to keep people from being paid higher wages, the federal government instituted a wage cap.  Businesses then had to find a different way to incentivize and attract workers, so additional compensation forms were born.