Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 253707 times)

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3150 on: July 21, 2020, 06:31:15 AM »
Welp, looks like the curve won’t be flattening anytime soon: https://twitter.com/joshbreslowwkrn/status/1284591893775634436?s=21

One of the replies mentioned the term #spreadnecks

(Laughs in bitter)
All Gas No Brakes is my favorite reporter right now. If one listens to what Americans actually think, the lack of effective response to the pandemic is unsurprising. It's easy to think that the more like-minded individuals you interact with on a regular basis are modal when the truth is much sadder. UP Michigan represent! (It's probably good they are getting some vitamin D though)

As of yesterday: UP COVID-19 cases reach more than 350 Monday; Upper Michigan a medium-high risk (Source: WLUC-TV, Marquette, MI)

As per the State of Michigan, the entire UP has 79 ICU beds, and 42 are currently occupied as of July 20.

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3151 on: July 21, 2020, 02:47:14 PM »
A friend of mine lives in Idaho... I managed to get in a Facebook argument with his wife (she’s the local, he’s Australian and moved there).

She posted some FB picture about the MSM only covering the big increase in cases but not “celebrating” the low death rate.

She tagged it “yay! Herd Immunity”.

I took her to task about it and said no one should celebrate 1000 deaths a day. People who have died needlessly because other folks can’t do basic things like wear masks and keep a reasonable distance from each other. I also pointed out that herd immunity is when people are vaccinated in sufficient numbers that virtually no one gets ill (e.g. whooping cough, measles etc).

She basically said “do you know my background?” So I asked her to explain. She’s apparently some sort of nurse. She said that everyone should catch it so it’s over and done with. I pointed out the example of the Brazilian President who caught it twice.

Her friend chimes in to rip into me that America should let the virus circulate freely amongst the healthy population so that herd immunity can be gained, because lockdowns are not an option because “nobody wants to live like that”.

I then got sent a graph about there being a 99.7% survival rate (worked out by dividing the reported number of deaths by the total world population - basically assuming everyone in the world is infected).

I gave up. But I now have a better understanding of what we are up against. The problem is not the virus, it’s people who fundamentally believe they are right but have no clue at all.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2020, 02:51:42 PM by marty998 »

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3152 on: July 21, 2020, 04:48:24 PM »
sounds like a lot of misinformation from both of you

v8rx7guy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3153 on: July 21, 2020, 04:53:08 PM »
I then got sent a graph about there being a 99.7% survival rate (worked out by dividing the reported number of deaths by the total world population - basically assuming everyone in the world is infected).

Ummm... no, that's not where that percentage comes from.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3154 on: July 21, 2020, 05:15:24 PM »
I then got sent a graph about there being a 99.7% survival rate (worked out by dividing the reported number of deaths by the total world population - basically assuming everyone in the world is infected).

Ummm... no, that's not where that percentage comes from.

Ha, was just thinking that.  That would make the death rate 0.008% using that method.  I'm guessing the  99.7% figure comes from the CDC's estimate of 0.3% IFR. 

« Last Edit: July 21, 2020, 05:18:27 PM by HBFIRE »

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3155 on: July 21, 2020, 05:21:23 PM »
I then got sent a graph about there being a 99.7% survival rate (worked out by dividing the reported number of deaths by the total world population - basically assuming everyone in the world is infected).

Ummm... no, that's not where that percentage comes from.

Ha, was just thinking that.  That would make the death rate 0.008% using that method.  I'm guessing the  99.7% figure comes from the CDC's estimate of 0.3% IFR. 
New estimate is 0.65% -- though the CDC has been a step or two behind other sources attempting to estimate this.

Davnasty

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3156 on: July 21, 2020, 05:24:12 PM »
A friend of mine lives in Idaho... I managed to get in a Facebook argument with his wife (she’s the local, he’s Australian and moved there).

She posted some FB picture about the MSM only covering the big increase in cases but not “celebrating” the low death rate.

She tagged it “yay! Herd Immunity”.

I took her to task about it and said no one should celebrate 1000 deaths a day. People who have died needlessly because other folks can’t do basic things like wear masks and keep a reasonable distance from each other. I also pointed out that herd immunity is when people are vaccinated in sufficient numbers that virtually no one gets ill (e.g. whooping cough, measles etc).

She basically said “do you know my background?” So I asked her to explain. She’s apparently some sort of nurse. She said that everyone should catch it so it’s over and done with. I pointed out the example of the Brazilian President who caught it twice.

Her friend chimes in to rip into me that America should let the virus circulate freely amongst the healthy population so that herd immunity can be gained, because lockdowns are not an option because “nobody wants to live like that”.

I then got sent a graph about there being a 99.7% survival rate (worked out by dividing the reported number of deaths by the total world population - basically assuming everyone in the world is infected).

I gave up. But I now have a better understanding of what we are up against. The problem is not the virus, it’s people who fundamentally believe they are right but have no clue at all.

I've bolded the portions that I think HBFire is referring to.

- Herd immunity can refer to immunity by any means, not just vaccination. She was also wrong to relate herd immunity to death rates.
- Bolsonaro did not catch the virus twice, he took the test twice and tested positive both times.
- if total deaths were divided by world population you'd get a survival rate of 99.992%. I suspect her source made some erroneous assumptions because there are still lots of unknown variables in the infection fatality rate(IFR) equation, but .3% IFR is not out of the realm of possibility.

You're still in the right that the idea of just letting it spread freely would be very, very bad. Even at IFR .3% (an optimistic number) if 50-70% of the population contracted the virus that would equate to 500k-700k deaths, not to mention the impact of time spent sick, survivors who experience long term injuries, and of course the fact that hospitals would be overwhelmed causing the IFR to rise due to lack of resources.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3157 on: July 21, 2020, 05:29:57 PM »

New estimate is 0.65% -- though the CDC has been a step or two behind other sources attempting to estimate this.

Thanks, its been awhile since I visited their estimates.  I know the range of estimates has been in the 0.3-1% range.  The serological studies done thus far have converged to a median average of 0.38%.

The main problem with these estimates is that they don't jive with what we saw in NY.  If I remember correctly, close to 0.2% of NYC's entire population has died of covid 19.

« Last Edit: July 21, 2020, 05:33:29 PM by HBFIRE »

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3158 on: July 21, 2020, 05:33:14 PM »
The latest graph of weekly deaths from covid on the CDC website seems positive. It only goes up to the week ending July 11, though. It'll be interesting to see how the graph looks in another month or two.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2020, 05:36:35 PM by Shane »

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3159 on: July 21, 2020, 05:36:22 PM »
The latest graph of weekly deaths from covid on the CDC website seems positive. It'll be interesting to see how it looks in a month or two.

The CDC's site is a poor tool to look at recent trends, as it utilizes death certificate data which can be delayed 8 weeks.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3160 on: July 21, 2020, 05:37:14 PM »
The latest graph of weekly deaths from covid on the CDC website seems positive. It'll be interesting to see how it looks in a month or two.

The CDC's site is a poor tool to look at recent trends, as it utilizes death certificate data which can be delayed 8 weeks.

What's a better source?

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3161 on: July 21, 2020, 05:38:59 PM »

What's a better source?

All sources seem to have their own issues.  I monitor worldometer to get a sense of trends, but it has its own problems as well like data dumps from deaths late to report.  The CDC is great in that it gives accurate data and uses accurate dates, but its painfully slow to update.  Long term that will be a much better source to use.  Just not very useful if you want to know whats happening right now.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2020, 05:43:48 PM by HBFIRE »

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3162 on: July 21, 2020, 05:40:11 PM »

New estimate is 0.65% -- though the CDC has been a step or two behind other sources attempting to estimate this.

Thanks, its been awhile since I visited their estimates.  I know the range of estimates has been in the 0.3-1% range.  The serological studies done thus far have converged to a median average of 0.38%.

The main problem with these estimates is that they don't jive with what we saw in NY.  If I remember correctly, close to 0.2% of NYC's entire population has died of covid 19.
The NYC data is skewed by what I call the "Cuomovirus" where he sent the infected back to elderly care facilities to spread the virus, with the unsurprising result being many thousands dead in the most vulnerable age group. But like everything else with this, we either don't have the data or don't have good data. I have believed in an IFR ranging from 0.2-0.8% for a while.

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3163 on: July 21, 2020, 06:10:20 PM »

What's a better source?

All sources seem to have their own issues.  I monitor worldometer to get a sense of trends, but it has its own problems as well like data dumps from deaths late to report.  The CDC is great in that it gives accurate data and uses accurate dates, but its painfully slow to update.  Long term that will be a much better source to use.  Just not very useful if you want to know whats happening right now.

Wonder if that will continue to be true, since the Trump Administration has, apparently, cut CDC out of the information loop in favor of DHHS?

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3164 on: July 21, 2020, 06:52:45 PM »

What's a better source?

All sources seem to have their own issues.  I monitor worldometer to get a sense of trends, but it has its own problems as well like data dumps from deaths late to report.  The CDC is great in that it gives accurate data and uses accurate dates, but its painfully slow to update.  Long term that will be a much better source to use.  Just not very useful if you want to know whats happening right now.

Wonder if that will continue to be true, since the Trump Administration has, apparently, cut CDC out of the information loop in favor of DHHS?

You can guarantee that the Trump controlled DHHS will be unreliable . . . so I'm guessing that the CDC will still be the only reliable source of information for the US.  Assuming that any source still exists.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3165 on: July 21, 2020, 08:57:22 PM »
Some more interesting facts from our state government press conferences (which are surprisingly candid and make for interesting watching)

Quote
"Andrews said that 53% of people who tested positive between 7 and 21 July in Victoria (2,056 of 3,810 cases) did not isolate. So, one in two.

"That is, did not stay at home and have no contact with anybody else between when they had their test taken and when they got the results of that test.

"Fifty-three percent of people continuing to go shopping, continuing to go to work, continuing to do all sorts of things even though they’ve got symptoms, they feel sick, sick enough to get a test, and then, somehow, not willing to stay at home and wait — on average — a couple of days, and sometimes sooner — to get the results of that test.

What a massive dereliction of duty. If you're sick, you should stay home and self-isolate. It only takes 2 days for a test result to come back.

The virus is raging in aged care centres because sick employees have kept on working despite being symptomatic. This is despite everyone being entitled to $1500 in free money if they have to take time off work due to Covid. We have also doubled the dole to a very generous $570 per week. So there's no excuse to keep working, whether you have sick leave or not.

I think the Victorian government has handled the situation pretty well. They have been flexible with lockdowns, haven't gone too hard or too soft in the past 2 months, and have been sending the right messages.

The only thing they screwed up was the Quarantine Hotel situation but I'm not convinced you can do anything to stop security guards having sex with known-infected patients. That's human error, not governmental error.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3166 on: July 21, 2020, 09:00:01 PM »
The NYC data is skewed by what I call the "Cuomovirus" where he sent the infected back to elderly care facilities to spread the virus, with the unsurprising result being many thousands dead in the most vulnerable age group.
We're looking at something similar here. People testing positive in an aged care facility aren't being moved from it until they need ICU. The result is that they're infecting the rest of the facility, and the staff, too - who tend to work at several facilities. It's going to wipe those poor bastards out.

Other states are sending infected aged care residents straight to hospital and aren't seeing the same outbreaks.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3167 on: July 21, 2020, 09:13:11 PM »
More from Daniel Andrews

Quote
That seems to be because the biggest place of transmisison in recent weeks – 80% of new cases – is the workplace.

If we were to move to a further stage of restrictions where other movement was limited ... where you might be able to go shopping, how many people might be able to leave the house at any one time – just to give you a couple of examples – will that stop people going to work that are going to work now? No.

So the key factor here: we can’t rule those measures out but, at this stage, the key factor here that’s driving the numbers and driving our challenge is people that are sick but not getting tested. They ultimately do get tested, many of them. But in those intervening days, they are going about their business with symptoms at the height of their infectivity, giving it to others.

Applause to the government for not introducing more restrictions (though not sure what those would look like anyway. Shutting down all retail? Probably a step too far and hurtful for the economy.)

I've sort of gotten used to life with the current restrictions. You can't meet friends in person but you can still see romantic partners in person ("intimate partners" is the phrasing and that can be variously interpreted). You can't drive long distances for exercise but you can still travel a reasonable distance to exercise. You can still exercise with a friend. You can still play sports (with 1 other person). I think it's a pretty reasonable set of restrictions.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3168 on: July 22, 2020, 01:59:37 AM »
I think it's a pretty reasonable set of restrictions.

Let's hope that everyone else agrees with you. I guess you know what happens when people don't play the game because they think the rules don't apply to them, huh?

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3169 on: July 22, 2020, 03:59:55 AM »
I then got sent a graph about there being a 99.7% survival rate (worked out by dividing the reported number of deaths by the total world population - basically assuming everyone in the world is infected).

Ummm... no, that's not where that percentage comes from.

Ha, was just thinking that.  That would make the death rate 0.008% using that method.  I'm guessing the  99.7% figure comes from the CDC's estimate of 0.3% IFR. 



A friend of mine lives in Idaho... I managed to get in a Facebook argument with his wife (she’s the local, he’s Australian and moved there).

She posted some FB picture about the MSM only covering the big increase in cases but not “celebrating” the low death rate.

She tagged it “yay! Herd Immunity”.

I took her to task about it and said no one should celebrate 1000 deaths a day. People who have died needlessly because other folks can’t do basic things like wear masks and keep a reasonable distance from each other. I also pointed out that herd immunity is when people are vaccinated in sufficient numbers that virtually no one gets ill (e.g. whooping cough, measles etc).

She basically said “do you know my background?” So I asked her to explain. She’s apparently some sort of nurse. She said that everyone should catch it so it’s over and done with. I pointed out the example of the Brazilian President who caught it twice.

Her friend chimes in to rip into me that America should let the virus circulate freely amongst the healthy population so that herd immunity can be gained, because lockdowns are not an option because “nobody wants to live like that”.

I then got sent a graph about there being a 99.7% survival rate (worked out by dividing the reported number of deaths by the total world population - basically assuming everyone in the world is infected).

I gave up. But I now have a better understanding of what we are up against. The problem is not the virus, it’s people who fundamentally believe they are right but have no clue at all.

I've bolded the portions that I think HBFire is referring to.

- Herd immunity can refer to immunity by any means, not just vaccination. She was also wrong to relate herd immunity to death rates.
- Bolsonaro did not catch the virus twice, he took the test twice and tested positive both times.
- if total deaths were divided by world population you'd get a survival rate of 99.992%. I suspect her source made some erroneous assumptions because there are still lots of unknown variables in the infection fatality rate(IFR) equation, but .3% IFR is not out of the realm of possibility.

You're still in the right that the idea of just letting it spread freely would be very, very bad. Even at IFR .3% (an optimistic number) if 50-70% of the population contracted the virus that would equate to 500k-700k deaths, not to mention the impact of time spent sick, survivors who experience long term injuries, and of course the fact that hospitals would be overwhelmed causing the IFR to rise due to lack of resources.

I stand corrected. Appreciate the feedback. See that's what reasonable people do when presented with evidence.

Though I'm not going to accept my level of incorrectness is on the same level as the one who I was arguing with.

There are degrees of misinformation out there. Some are more dangerous than others.

JGS1980

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3170 on: July 22, 2020, 08:57:15 AM »
The latest graph of weekly deaths from covid on the CDC website seems positive. It'll be interesting to see how it looks in a month or two.

The CDC's site is a poor tool to look at recent trends, as it utilizes death certificate data which can be delayed 8 weeks.

What's a better source?

I've been updating week to week since this started. Using both Johns Hopkins and Worldometer as real-time sources. No source is perfect, but I think it gives us an idea of overall trends, which is what I was looking for when I started this

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/coronavirus-weekly-update/


deborah

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3171 on: July 22, 2020, 12:05:14 PM »
The Australian institute of health and welfare has just looked at the Australian deaths from covid19 for the first four months. On average, people who died here lost 14 years of life if they were female and 17 if they were male. The researchers were surprised at how many years of life expectancy were lost to covid19.

Fomerly known as something

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3172 on: July 22, 2020, 05:18:18 PM »
@Bloop Bloop.  The two days for results might be true in Oz, but in many places of the US that is considered fast.  We had an extended family member in the ICU that didn’t get results in 2 days in non city PA.

OTOH, I got the results for my first test within 24 hours in not Detroit Michigan.  I was tested based on general occupation not specifics concerns.  I will get tested again sometime next week, again solely based on occupation, to my knowledge I haven’t been exposed.  I won’t self isolate after the test although I do socially distance in general.

Kris

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3173 on: July 22, 2020, 06:02:43 PM »
@Bloop Bloop.  The two days for results might be true in Oz, but in many places of the US that is considered fast.  We had an extended family member in the ICU that didn’t get results in 2 days in non city PA.

OTOH, I got the results for my first test within 24 hours in not Detroit Michigan.  I was tested based on general occupation not specifics concerns.  I will get tested again sometime next week, again solely based on occupation, to my knowledge I haven’t been exposed.  I won’t self isolate after the test although I do socially distance in general.

I was going to get a Covid test on Monday due to some mild symptoms, but the wait time to get results everywhere in my city is 6-10 days. Which means the test is basically useless to me. So I canceled the appointment.

I am guessing there are a lot of people like me with mild symptoms or who are asymptomatic who are positive, but don’t bother getting tested for this reason. Let’s hope most of them quarantine, but I am not optimistic.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3174 on: July 22, 2020, 07:23:09 PM »
The Australian institute of health and welfare has just looked at the Australian deaths from covid19 for the first four months. On average, people who died here lost 14 years of life if they were female and 17 if they were male. The researchers were surprised at how many years of life expectancy were lost to covid19.

It would imply a median age of death around 72 for females and 66 for males.

The figures will have changed in the past month. All of the Victorian second wave deaths have been in their 80s, 90s and 100s because so many infections are targeting nursing homes.

EDIT: as a supplement to the above, today three people died who were in their 50s, 70s and 80s.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2020, 09:04:11 PM by Bloop Bloop »

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3175 on: July 22, 2020, 07:28:35 PM »
@Bloop Bloop.  The two days for results might be true in Oz, but in many places of the US that is considered fast.  We had an extended family member in the ICU that didn’t get results in 2 days in non city PA.

OTOH, I got the results for my first test within 24 hours in not Detroit Michigan.  I was tested based on general occupation not specifics concerns.  I will get tested again sometime next week, again solely based on occupation, to my knowledge I haven’t been exposed.  I won’t self isolate after the test although I do socially distance in general.

I was going to get a Covid test on Monday due to some mild symptoms, but the wait time to get results everywhere in my city is 6-10 days. Which means the test is basically useless to me. So I canceled the appointment.

I am guessing there are a lot of people like me with mild symptoms or who are asymptomatic who are positive, but don’t bother getting tested for this reason. Let’s hope most of them quarantine, but I am not optimistic.

Testing with quick turnarounds would help us so much right now. Identifying who needs to stay home and who can go out shopping (with extreme precautions) would make this much more tolerable. The federal government should have taken the lead on this months ago, but even today, they’re still reticent.

It’s incredible how badly we’ve messed this up.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2020, 08:59:17 AM by mathlete »

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3176 on: July 22, 2020, 08:54:24 PM »
@Bloop Bloop.  The two days for results might be true in Oz, but in many places of the US that is considered fast.  We had an extended family member in the ICU that didn’t get results in 2 days in non city PA.

OTOH, I got the results for my first test within 24 hours in not Detroit Michigan.  I was tested based on general occupation not specifics concerns.  I will get tested again sometime next week, again solely based on occupation, to my knowledge I haven’t been exposed.  I won’t self isolate after the test although I do socially distance in general.

I was going to get a Covid test on Monday due to some mild symptoms, but the wait time to get results everywhere in my city is 6-10 days. Which means the test is basically useless to me. So I canceled the appointment.

I am guessing there are a lot of people like me with mild symptoms or who are asymptomatic who are positive, but don’t bother getting tested for this reason. Let’s hope most of them quarantine, but I am not optimistic.
Hope you feel better soon!


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Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3177 on: July 22, 2020, 09:17:10 PM »
Cases for the most populated US counties show some stabilization at high levels of new cases per day (>1000/d in Dallas, houston, Phoenix, and So Cal counties, >2000/d in LA and Miami). Chicago and Detroit have a slight bump but nowhere near their spring numbers. Northern California counties are also have upticks, but at much lower rates (200/d).

Encouragingly, deaths remain relatively low, approximately 2% of reported cases regardless of locale.

Source: NYTimes

ICU capacity remains stable at 85-110% occupancy (all causes) in most metropolitan areas that are affected and publicly reporting (LA, Houston, Miami, Phoenix). It is a bit concerning that they have not been able to clear more beds since the surge began in the last three weeks.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3178 on: July 22, 2020, 09:37:17 PM »
^WTG, San Diego, with negative 10 deaths a while back. Maybe 2020 will be the year of the zombie apocalypse too?

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3179 on: July 22, 2020, 10:12:24 PM »
^WTG, San Diego, with negative 10 deaths a while back. Maybe 2020 will be the year of the zombie apocalypse too?

Probably just a correction in the data, but I've noticed this as well.

Hey everyone, here's a heatmap I've made for your review.  I took the Johns Hopkins University (going to abbreviate it as JHU from now on) figures for COVID-19 deaths in each state, then determined the number of fatalities per day per million population from 4/1 until now. Let me know what you all think.

Did this thing go full walking dead and start raising people in Montana on 4/2?

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3180 on: July 22, 2020, 10:18:31 PM »
Haha, yeah those are corrections. They don't really alter the overall trends so I haven't bothered to filter those out. No zombies yet.

kenmoremmm

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3181 on: July 22, 2020, 11:35:00 PM »
something that i just don't get, or at least don't understand why it's not being talked about, is the trend in states like NY, NJ, CT. those trends are basically most of europe's trend lines as well. even AZ is starting to look like it's on that path (unless it's faking the numbers --- possible).

it's not like the northeast states are in total lockdown now. they're in some modified form of lockdown not unlike other parts of the US. same is true for europe; they aren't locked down hard anymore.

i know the NYT just had an article discussing real cases are on the order of 2x-13x higher than reported. but part of me wonders if the real number is 50x and the virus has simply spread and impacted the people that it's going to impact, and the rest just didn't get affected by it.

if the virus has shown anything over the past year, it's that it spreads very easily and quickly (see meat processing plants). i am of the optimistic hope that it's actually infiltrated most of the country (US), especially in states that went back to work earlier than recommended, and that they will soon see the peak of this virus.

my belief is still that there won't be a vaccine in time and that the virus will just need to do its thing, deaths and long-term damage and all. and that the countries/states that just let it rip will ultimately come out ahead. like, new zealand and australia are doing great at containing it and preventing it from spreading, but good luck being locked down forever to the outside world if there's no vaccine.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3182 on: July 22, 2020, 11:49:17 PM »
something that i just don't get, or at least don't understand why it's not being talked about, is the trend in states like NY, NJ, CT. those trends are basically most of europe's trend lines as well. even AZ is starting to look like it's on that path (unless it's faking the numbers --- possible).

it's not like the northeast states are in total lockdown now. they're in some modified form of lockdown not unlike other parts of the US. same is true for europe; they aren't locked down hard anymore.

i know the NYT just had an article discussing real cases are on the order of 2x-13x higher than reported. but part of me wonders if the real number is 50x and the virus has simply spread and impacted the people that it's going to impact, and the rest just didn't get affected by it.

if the virus has shown anything over the past year, it's that it spreads very easily and quickly (see meat processing plants). i am of the optimistic hope that it's actually infiltrated most of the country (US), especially in states that went back to work earlier than recommended, and that they will soon see the peak of this virus.

my belief is still that there won't be a vaccine in time and that the virus will just need to do its thing, deaths and long-term damage and all. and that the countries/states that just let it rip will ultimately come out ahead. like, new zealand and australia are doing great at containing it and preventing it from spreading, but good luck being locked down forever to the outside world if there's no vaccine.

NZ here - we're not locked down to the outside world. We're still trading normally with the exception of tourism.

And Australia is not doing a good job of containing it.

And you're nowhere near a peak in the virus. Europe isn't locked down hard because they allowed the numbers to drop BEFORE they reopened. The US isn't in hard lockdown because your politicians haven't got the balls to enforce something for the good of everyone. The do have the balls to bring in DHS for BLM, which is just plain weird for the rest of the world to watch, but whatever. The good news is, it won't matter soon because the US population will be scared to venture outside anyway. Covid is kind of self limiting that way. Cool, huh?

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3183 on: July 22, 2020, 11:51:25 PM »
If I were living in a country where government incompetence had led to 141,000 deaths - and increasing! - I would likewise have a sense of futility about measures taken. Even here in Victoria where we've a few hundred cases and a few deaths each day we're getting that sense.

That one dumb kid fucks up your order at the drivethru does not mean that a decent burger is impossible everywhere and every time, it's just that the kid is an idiot. The failures of our own particular governments do not mean that nothing useful can be done, only that they are not capable of doing it.

jrhampt

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3184 on: July 23, 2020, 04:10:16 AM »
something that i just don't get, or at least don't understand why it's not being talked about, is the trend in states like NY, NJ, CT. those trends are basically most of europe's trend lines as well. even AZ is starting to look like it's on that path (unless it's faking the numbers --- possible).

it's not like the northeast states are in total lockdown now. they're in some modified form of lockdown not unlike other parts of the US. same is true for europe; they aren't locked down hard anymore.

i know the NYT just had an article discussing real cases are on the order of 2x-13x higher than reported. but part of me wonders if the real number is 50x and the virus has simply spread and impacted the people that it's going to impact, and the rest just didn't get affected by it.

if the virus has shown anything over the past year, it's that it spreads very easily and quickly (see meat processing plants). i am of the optimistic hope that it's actually infiltrated most of the country (US), especially in states that went back to work earlier than recommended, and that they will soon see the peak of this virus.

my belief is still that there won't be a vaccine in time and that the virus will just need to do its thing, deaths and long-term damage and all. and that the countries/states that just let it rip will ultimately come out ahead. like, new zealand and australia are doing great at containing it and preventing it from spreading, but good luck being locked down forever to the outside world if there's no vaccine.

Masks.  I'm in CT and we've had a mask mandate since April.  I'd say 95+% of people are good about complying with this mandate, and I'm pretty sure it's a large part of why our curve is down.  Plus we re-opened later, not until June, and we never got to a phase 3 of reopening.  No bars, for example.

ctuser1

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3185 on: July 23, 2020, 04:36:12 AM »

New estimate is 0.65% -- though the CDC has been a step or two behind other sources attempting to estimate this.

Thanks, its been awhile since I visited their estimates.  I know the range of estimates has been in the 0.3-1% range.  The serological studies done thus far have converged to a median average of 0.38%.

The main problem with these estimates is that they don't jive with what we saw in NY.  If I remember correctly, close to 0.2% of NYC's entire population has died of covid 19.
The NYC data is skewed by what I call the "Cuomovirus" where he sent the infected back to elderly care facilities to spread the virus, with the unsurprising result being many thousands dead in the most vulnerable age group. But like everything else with this, we either don't have the data or don't have good data. I have believed in an IFR ranging from 0.2-0.8% for a while.

No Cuomovirus in CT or NJ as far as I know. Deaths vs confirmed cases etc are not any different in these states.

Death rate *should* go down a lot now, because we now have more effective treatments to keep people from dying.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3186 on: July 23, 2020, 08:36:41 AM »

No Cuomovirus in CT or NJ as far as I know. Deaths vs confirmed cases etc are not any different in these states.

Death rate *should* go down a lot now, because we now have more effective treatments to keep people from dying.

Yeah, CT has the 3rd highest death rate in the country, it got hammered.  It rarely gets mentioned due to its small population, but its right behind NY/NJ with deaths per capita.

I think we're seeing the death rate decline for the reasons many have cited in this thread -- 1), we're testing at a rate of 7 x what we were during the  US peak back in April.  This means we're simply capturing a much higher % of total infections, and hence the denominator is higher for the CFR calculation.  Essentially, even though new cases are much higher now, the virus is likely not nearly as prevalent as it was in late April/mid May (i.e. if we were doing 800 K tests/day back in May, we likely would have seen well over 100 K confirmed cases/day).   2) Average age of infection in most locales has dropped significantly, this would lower mortality.  3) we're better at treatment and approach.

The only good news right now is that new cases seemed to have stabilized.  Now its just a question of how high lagging deaths will get.  @Abe Thanks for all the data you share, good insight -- please keep it up.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2020, 09:13:20 AM by HBFIRE »

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3187 on: July 23, 2020, 09:10:35 AM »
Vaccines are the endgame, but they're not the only way to help. We should have been increasing our testing capacity, but there's little appetite to do that at the Federal level.

I felt under the weather and had a little bit of labored breathing a week and a half ago, so I went to get a COVID test. They told me it could take 7-10 days because of backlogs, so I just completely isolated until I felt better, and then for 72 hours after that.

I still don't have the result. Imagine if my test came back in two days and it was negative? That would have been 5 or so days that I could have been out in the world, doing commerce and helping the economy. As it is though, I stayed home.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3188 on: July 23, 2020, 09:16:54 AM »
The vast majority of people aren't as considerate as you and would be milling about getting their haircut and going to bars, etc while waiting for their results.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3189 on: July 23, 2020, 09:25:15 AM »
The vast majority of people aren't as considerate as you and would be milling about getting their haircut and going to bars, etc while waiting for their results.

I actually have a slightly more favorable view on humanity than most during this. For example, despite all the grumbling, almost everyone I see wears a mask where they're supposed to.

And I think even getting a test when you feel ill (but don't need to be hospitalized) shows a certain level of conscientiousness. People will play along if you make it sufficiently easy for them. i.e., lots of drive thru testing, quick turn-a-rounds, and low penalties for missing work due to sickness.

Unfortunately, all this requires leadership, which we do not have right now. 

GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3190 on: July 23, 2020, 09:39:51 AM »
Unfortunately, all this requires leadership, which we do not have right now.

Incorrect.

You absolutely have leadership.  It's just that the leadership you have directly contradicts reality whenever it's inconvenient, and provides helpful tips like 'inject bleach to cure disease!'.

mathlete

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3191 on: July 23, 2020, 10:39:29 AM »
Incorrect.

You absolutely have leadership.  It's just that the leadership you have directly contradicts reality whenever it's inconvenient, and provides helpful tips like 'inject bleach to cure disease!'.

More than ever, people are either tuning him out or just fuming at his ridiculousness. People disapprove of him 56/40.

On the virus specifically, he struck a somber tone in late March, only to tweet a few days later that "WE CAN'T LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE DISEASE" and floating packing the churches for Easter.  More recently, he's been hot and cold on masks. He's recommending that we wear them now, but I'm not ruling out a conspiracy theory retweet coming up soon.

There's no level of consistency in his messaging. This is what I mean by "no leadership". Before, when he said and did horrible things, he was at least consistent about a lot of them. Wall good. Immigrants bad. etc.

The messaging from the top this time though has been, "???". We (states and individuals) are really on our own here.

ctuser1

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3192 on: July 23, 2020, 10:57:35 AM »

No Cuomovirus in CT or NJ as far as I know. Deaths vs confirmed cases etc are not any different in these states.

Death rate *should* go down a lot now, because we now have more effective treatments to keep people from dying.

Yeah, CT has the 3rd highest death rate in the country, it got hammered.  It rarely gets mentioned due to its small population, but its right behind NY/NJ with deaths per capita.

I think we're seeing the death rate decline for the reasons many have cited in this thread -- 1), we're testing at a rate of 7 x what we were during the  US peak back in April.  This means we're simply capturing a much higher % of total infections, and hence the denominator is higher for the CFR calculation.  Essentially, even though new cases are much higher now, the virus is likely not nearly as prevalent as it was in late April/mid May (i.e. if we were doing 800 K tests/day back in May, we likely would have seen well over 100 K confirmed cases/day).   2) Average age of infection in most locales has dropped significantly, this would lower mortality.  3) we're better at treatment and approach.

The only good news right now is that new cases seemed to have stabilized.  Now its just a question of how high lagging deaths will get.  @Abe Thanks for all the data you share, good insight -- please keep it up.

I was responding "lost_in_the_endless_aisle"s new conspiracy theory by pointing out states that Cuomo does not control.

Any partisan hack that seeks to distract from the culpability of our current federal leadership and the sun-belt governments by promoting unfounded conspiracy theories without any empirical evidence is doing a disservice to their fellow citizens. The virus won't discriminate based on ideology. It CAN come for you.

And even though it does not kill many (specially with the present treatments available), it causes long term damage far more frequently.


GuitarStv

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3193 on: July 23, 2020, 11:24:55 AM »
Incorrect.

You absolutely have leadership.  It's just that the leadership you have directly contradicts reality whenever it's inconvenient, and provides helpful tips like 'inject bleach to cure disease!'.

More than ever, people are either tuning him out or just fuming at his ridiculousness. People disapprove of him 56/40.

On the virus specifically, he struck a somber tone in late March, only to tweet a few days later that "WE CAN'T LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE DISEASE" and floating packing the churches for Easter.  More recently, he's been hot and cold on masks. He's recommending that we wear them now, but I'm not ruling out a conspiracy theory retweet coming up soon.

There's no level of consistency in his messaging. This is what I mean by "no leadership". Before, when he said and did horrible things, he was at least consistent about a lot of them. Wall good. Immigrants bad. etc.

The messaging from the top this time though has been, "???". We (states and individuals) are really on our own here.

40% of people approve of him though!  What the fuck is wrong with them?

OtherJen

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3194 on: July 23, 2020, 11:32:11 AM »
Incorrect.

You absolutely have leadership.  It's just that the leadership you have directly contradicts reality whenever it's inconvenient, and provides helpful tips like 'inject bleach to cure disease!'.

More than ever, people are either tuning him out or just fuming at his ridiculousness. People disapprove of him 56/40.

On the virus specifically, he struck a somber tone in late March, only to tweet a few days later that "WE CAN'T LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE DISEASE" and floating packing the churches for Easter.  More recently, he's been hot and cold on masks. He's recommending that we wear them now, but I'm not ruling out a conspiracy theory retweet coming up soon.

There's no level of consistency in his messaging. This is what I mean by "no leadership". Before, when he said and did horrible things, he was at least consistent about a lot of them. Wall good. Immigrants bad. etc.

The messaging from the top this time though has been, "???". We (states and individuals) are really on our own here.

40% of people approve of him though!  What the fuck is wrong with them?

Tribalism?

I live in Detroit. The Lions haven't won an NFL championship since 1957. Yet, their fan base remains large and loyal.

ender

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3195 on: July 23, 2020, 11:36:31 AM »
back on topic... something I'm curious about, with testing/test rates... are those somehow normalized for the number of distinct people tested?

I have sort of been assuming that if a state did 100k tests, that meant they tested 100k people. But I'm wondering - what if that's testing 1000 people every day for 100 days (maybe healthcare)?

All the data I can see talks about completed tests and doesn't correct for numbers of people. So if testing infrastructure made tests more available and medical facilities could do more testing on a regular basis, it'd dramatically increase the numbers of tests without really reaching more people as they repeatedly test their healthcare workers.

Or it could be too that someone who has covid and is tested multiple times, maybe to clear a return to work or maybe because they have money to burn, who knows, would increase the positive test results without being distinct people. So in a naive situation where you test 5 people, 4 of whom are negative and the positive person tests 3 times, you might see 3/7 positive test results.

I'm wondering if this means that using the raw test count/positive test count data is slightly misleading. I'm not particularly sure how it'd be possible to correct for this but it certainly feels like it'd lead to a falser sense of security if multiple people are tested negative repeatedly.

It seems like positive cases can be reflected as "number of confirmed cases" to avoid this. But I've not seen a similar conversion of the negative test results.

GillyMack

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3196 on: July 23, 2020, 11:57:40 AM »
Our state tries to correct for this, though sometimes it takes a few days to clean and probably isn't 100 % perfect. So the numbers professionals are aware.  But if one grabs a stat of cases off a website or news article, it might be hard to tell exactly what it is.

Editing to say what I’m talking about is removing multiple tests of same people.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2020, 12:06:42 PM by GillyMack »

the_fixer

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3197 on: July 23, 2020, 12:01:09 PM »
back on topic... something I'm curious about, with testing/test rates... are those somehow normalized for the number of distinct people tested?

I have sort of been assuming that if a state did 100k tests, that meant they tested 100k people. But I'm wondering - what if that's testing 1000 people every day for 100 days (maybe healthcare)?

All the data I can see talks about completed tests and doesn't correct for numbers of people. So if testing infrastructure made tests more available and medical facilities could do more testing on a regular basis, it'd dramatically increase the numbers of tests without really reaching more people as they repeatedly test their healthcare workers.

Or it could be too that someone who has covid and is tested multiple times, maybe to clear a return to work or maybe because they have money to burn, who knows, would increase the positive test results without being distinct people. So in a naive situation where you test 5 people, 4 of whom are negative and the positive person tests 3 times, you might see 3/7 positive test results.

I'm wondering if this means that using the raw test count/positive test count data is slightly misleading. I'm not particularly sure how it'd be possible to correct for this but it certainly feels like it'd lead to a falser sense of security if multiple people are tested negative repeatedly.

It seems like positive cases can be reflected as "number of confirmed cases" to avoid this. But I've not seen a similar conversion of the negative test results.
My wife’s doctor claims she gets tested each week to try and keep her patients safer and I am sure many others get tested multiple times.


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Just Joe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3198 on: July 23, 2020, 12:04:02 PM »
Welp, looks like the curve won’t be flattening anytime soon: https://twitter.com/joshbreslowwkrn/status/1284591893775634436?s=21

"Spreadnecks"! Love it...

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #3199 on: July 23, 2020, 12:10:54 PM »
back on topic... something I'm curious about, with testing/test rates... are those somehow normalized for the number of distinct people tested?

I have sort of been assuming that if a state did 100k tests, that meant they tested 100k people. But I'm wondering - what if that's testing 1000 people every day for 100 days (maybe healthcare)?

All the data I can see talks about completed tests and doesn't correct for numbers of people. So if testing infrastructure made tests more available and medical facilities could do more testing on a regular basis, it'd dramatically increase the numbers of tests without really reaching more people as they repeatedly test their healthcare workers.

Or it could be too that someone who has covid and is tested multiple times, maybe to clear a return to work or maybe because they have money to burn, who knows, would increase the positive test results without being distinct people. So in a naive situation where you test 5 people, 4 of whom are negative and the positive person tests 3 times, you might see 3/7 positive test results.

I'm wondering if this means that using the raw test count/positive test count data is slightly misleading. I'm not particularly sure how it'd be possible to correct for this but it certainly feels like it'd lead to a falser sense of security if multiple people are tested negative repeatedly.

It seems like positive cases can be reflected as "number of confirmed cases" to avoid this. But I've not seen a similar conversion of the negative test results.
My wife’s doctor claims she gets tested each week to try and keep her patients safer and I am sure many others get tested multiple times.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


I’m required by one of my employers to test weekly, the other monthly