Author Topic: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?  (Read 253673 times)

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2050 on: May 21, 2020, 05:50:48 AM »
Britain seems to have stopped reporting the number of cases entirely.

That's one way to flatten it.

LightTripper

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2051 on: May 21, 2020, 06:11:27 AM »
Really? I've been following it here and looks like it was updated yesterday as usual. Have they announced something? They'll get torn to shreds if they start trying to hide data they've been publishing up to now...
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2052 on: May 21, 2020, 06:24:12 AM »
Give those developing countries 1-2 more weeks and their curve will have peaked too just like everyone else's.

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2053 on: May 21, 2020, 06:44:22 AM »
Give those developing countries 1-2 more weeks and their curve will have peaked too just like everyone else's.
Not what you said in your previous post, though.

And do please let us know, is the curve going to peak in India, Mexico and Brazil in the next week or too because of their effective social distancing/lockdown measures or because they have reached herd immunity? Inquiring minds would like to know.

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Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2055 on: May 21, 2020, 07:16:33 AM »
Give those developing countries 1-2 more weeks and their curve will have peaked too just like everyone else's.
Not what you said in your previous post, though.

And do please let us know, is the curve going to peak in India, Mexico and Brazil in the next week or too because of their effective social distancing/lockdown measures or because they have reached herd immunity? Inquiring minds would like to know.

Donno. Let's wait and see. Either / or. These infections never sustain exponential growth (till full saturation) even in a non-lockdown zone because that's not how disease transmission works.

HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2056 on: May 21, 2020, 10:17:10 AM »
Thoughts?

https://unherd.com/2020/05/oxford-doubles-down-sunetra-gupta-interview/?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3

Yes, some immunologists think covid-19 will eventually become part of the group we label as "common cold".  It will become less severe with time.

hops

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2057 on: May 21, 2020, 11:29:01 AM »
I had to be briefly hospitalized earlier this week for some minor surgery. The hospital was damn near close to empty. I asked the nurses and porters about it and they all had similar replies, something like "Won't be for long, with the way people are starting to behave."

Shane

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2058 on: May 21, 2020, 11:34:04 AM »
Thoughts?

https://unherd.com/2020/05/oxford-doubles-down-sunetra-gupta-interview/?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3

Yes, some immunologists think covid-19 will eventually become part of the group we label as "common cold".  It will become less severe with time.

Interesting interview. Thanks for posting. Seems like Dr. Gupta made some valid points. It'll be interesting to see, in real time, how things turn out in different places, based on different reopening strategies.

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js82

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2061 on: May 21, 2020, 03:21:37 PM »
Thoughts?

https://unherd.com/2020/05/oxford-doubles-down-sunetra-gupta-interview/?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3

Gupta's estimates for the IFR are provably wrong - at least, assuming you're not doing an exceptional job isolating the vulnerable(i.e. to an extent that no country with large numbers of infections has yet successfully achieved).

That said, there's merit to the rest of the discussion - particularly the argument that we overkilled shutdowns in large chunks of the country(assuming the endgame is herd immunity).  In the U.S. this has a lot to do with the fact that most executive decisions were made at the state level, while conditions were widely variable across different regions within those states.
« Last Edit: May 21, 2020, 03:24:46 PM by js82 »

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2062 on: May 21, 2020, 03:48:32 PM »
Really? I've been following it here and looks like it was updated yesterday as usual. Have they announced something? They'll get torn to shreds if they start trying to hide data they've been publishing up to now...
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

My mistake. I was looking on the worldometers site and it had a blank for the UK for yesterday. Seems numbers are back being tallied there now.

Thanks!

Gremlin

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2063 on: May 21, 2020, 04:47:45 PM »
Give those developing countries 1-2 more weeks and their curve will have peaked too just like everyone else's.
Oh ok, so when you said "every nation on earth" what you meant was "except for those with brown and black people".  Gotcha!

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2064 on: May 21, 2020, 08:37:55 PM »
Give those developing countries 1-2 more weeks and their curve will have peaked too just like everyone else's.
Oh ok, so when you said "every nation on earth" what you meant was "except for those with brown and black people".  Gotcha!

It's got nothing to do with the colour of their skin. Those countries have shitty healthcare and poor reporting. And they've been late to the party with the virus. Like I said, give them a week or two and they will have flattened the curve. Like every other country that's had the virus for a while now (Italy, Spain, US, UK, etc etc)

At the end of the day the exponential growth (till saturation) bullshit was wrong and was always going to be wrong. Viruses don't sustain exponential growth for very long at all.

Meanwhile the weather here in Victoria is lovely, we haven't had a death in our state for 3 weeks, we are reopening restaurants and cafes in 10 days and New South Wales has beaten us to the punch announcing that up to 50 patrons can dine in as of 1 June. I'm glad that Australia is going ahead with a quick re-oepning and I hope by June/July it will be business as usual.

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2065 on: May 21, 2020, 09:15:33 PM »
Did... did you just "shithole countries"

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2066 on: May 21, 2020, 09:33:37 PM »
In fact, that's not going to happen in Australia. You've been having a number of new cases in Victoria. That's why most of the other states aren't that interested in opening up.

You've said you're a lawyer, so I guess you've done no STEM subjects past middle school. How far were you in your schooling when you ceased to do maths? I'd like to know, so that people can explain what's happening in a way you can comprehend.

Gremlin

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2067 on: May 21, 2020, 09:49:53 PM »
Every country has managed to flatten the curve, with or without harsh lockdown measures.

More new cases worldwide today than any other day so far.  Pretty sure that means that not every country has managed to flatten the curve...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/20/global-report-coronavirus-pandemic-not-over-warns-the-who
Sadly there's more new cases worldwide today than yesterday. Yesterday's "high mark" stood for all of 24 hours.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2068 on: May 22, 2020, 12:24:11 AM »
If you just go through the countries in the Johns Hopkin COVID-19 map you can clearly see which ones are still growing, which have peaked, and which are in recovery. Or in the case of Iran, a clear second wave. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html


HBFIRE

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2069 on: May 22, 2020, 12:47:07 AM »
Case numbers can be extremely misleading as they are mostly dependent on how much testing has been done in that geographic location.  If a country increases testing, it can appear cases are increasing when it could be that they are simply identifying more cases.  Is Iran having another wave?  I don't know, but looking at case data isn't enough, it could be that they have simply ramped up testing and weren't identifying as many cases prior.  I couldn't locate their daily test data.  Their death chart is mostly downhill, but that of course could just be delay.  The best data points to watch are hospitalization rates and death rates.  Another important figure is positive % of tests performed.  USA is seeing all 3 of these dramatically drop, and is now testing at a very high rate with a relatively low positive % (approx 5-6%).  The good news is USA is seeing cases drop while also ramping up testing considerably over time.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 12:51:48 AM by HBFIRE »

ROF Expat

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2070 on: May 22, 2020, 01:29:56 AM »
Give those developing countries 1-2 more weeks and their curve will have peaked too just like everyone else's.
Oh ok, so when you said "every nation on earth" what you meant was "except for those with brown and black people".  Gotcha!

It's got nothing to do with the colour of their skin. Those countries have shitty healthcare and poor reporting. And they've been late to the party with the virus. Like I said, give them a week or two and they will have flattened the curve. Like every other country that's had the virus for a while now (Italy, Spain, US, UK, etc etc)

At the end of the day the exponential growth (till saturation) bullshit was wrong and was always going to be wrong. Viruses don't sustain exponential growth for very long at all.

Meanwhile the weather here in Victoria is lovely, we haven't had a death in our state for 3 weeks, we are reopening restaurants and cafes in 10 days and New South Wales has beaten us to the punch announcing that up to 50 patrons can dine in as of 1 June. I'm glad that Australia is going ahead with a quick re-oepning and I hope by June/July it will be business as usual.

Bloop,

(Starting with the "not a doctor and don't even play one on tv caveat)

It is certainly correct to say that diseases don't grow exponentially until everyone gets it.  That said, I am not sure it will be accurate to extrapolate spread (and mortality) information by assuming that specific countries "will be like every other country".     

Even assuming the viruses in different regions haven't mutated significantly, There's a good chance that other factors could cause significant differences in outcomes.  I don't think anybody at this point can estimate with confidence the effect of living in a crowded slum, poor nutrition, lack of access to clean water, or coinfection with other chronic diseases.  It is probably not a coincidence that infection and death rates seem higher in many lower income and guest worker communities around the world.   

You might turn out to be entirely right, I just don't think there's evidence to speak with confidence at this point.  Good science takes time, and I think there's a lot we just don't know about this virus at this point.

NB  I'd like to be clear that I disassociate myself from real or implied value judgments about people and countries.  There are, however, real demographic and other differences between countries and populations to be considered. 
« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 01:36:32 AM by ROF Expat »

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2071 on: May 22, 2020, 03:17:14 AM »
In fact, that's not going to happen in Australia. You've been having a number of new cases in Victoria. That's why most of the other states aren't that interested in opening up.

You've said you're a lawyer, so I guess you've done no STEM subjects past middle school. How far were you in your schooling when you ceased to do maths? I'd like to know, so that people can explain what's happening in a way you can comprehend.

We have been having the same number of new cases in Victoria this week as we did last week, despite increased testing (and also noting our two clusters keep adding to our case tally, plus overseas quarantine adds to it as well).

NSW just announced looser restrictions today. Which states aren't interested in opening up? The only part they're not interested in is interstate travel.

I did maths all the way through high school, and I know an exponential (quadratic) curve when I see one. The covid graphs are not exponential. There is a short period of exponential growth, then it quickly linearises and reverses.

former player

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2072 on: May 22, 2020, 03:22:12 AM »
In fact, that's not going to happen in Australia. You've been having a number of new cases in Victoria. That's why most of the other states aren't that interested in opening up.

You've said you're a lawyer, so I guess you've done no STEM subjects past middle school. How far were you in your schooling when you ceased to do maths? I'd like to know, so that people can explain what's happening in a way you can comprehend.

We have been having the same number of new cases in Victoria this week as we did last week, despite increased testing (and also noting our two clusters keep adding to our case tally, plus overseas quarantine adds to it as well).

NSW just announced looser restrictions today. Which states aren't interested in opening up? The only part they're not interested in is interstate travel.

I did maths all the way through high school, and I know an exponential (quadratic) curve when I see one. The covid graphs are not exponential. There is a short period of exponential growth, then it quickly linearises and reverses.
And then waves upwards again, right?

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2073 on: May 22, 2020, 03:28:08 AM »
Not for the US, UK, Australia, NZ, Italy...

Kyle Schuant

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2074 on: May 22, 2020, 03:37:42 AM »
And then waves upwards again, right?
Not always, no.

Active cases in Victoria had dropped to 30 or so, it floated along there for a couple of weeks. The two clusters we have turned that into 100-120 for a couple of weeks now. Most of those cases are asymptomatic, which is why we've had no deaths added to our tally of 18 since April 29th - this has surprised me, since some of the new infections are in nursing homes, but I guess some people hang on for a month or two so the deaths will probably go up.

The good thing is that 10 or so new cases a day, at 300 a month, has meant that only 10-20 people require serious medical care, which is well within our healthcare system's original capacity of 450 ICU beds - let alone our expanded capacity of 4,500. Our case rate could rise to 10 times the current number and we'd still be using less than a quarter of our old capacity, let alone our new one. And early treatment seems to make a big difference to the mortality rate.

Judge for yourself how much of a "wave" we've had. Of course, people keep promising another more serious one, but those are the same people who claimed there was a vast horde of asymptomatic carriers - we've tested well over 100,000 people and found a couple dozen, the asymptomatic hordes do exist in some other countries, but not in Australia - because we closed our borders early on.


Victoria
Date   Active cases, which is total cases minus deaths minus the recovered; we've had 18 deaths so far.
Mar 01 Sun   2
Mar 02 Mon   2
Mar 03 Tue   2
Mar 04 Wed   3
Mar 05 Thu   3
Mar 06 Fri   3
Mar 07 Sat   4
Mar 08 Sun   5
Mar 09 Mon   8
Mar 10 Tue   11
Mar 11 Wed   14
Mar 12 Thu   20
Mar 13 Fri   29
Mar 14 Sat   42
Mar 15 Sun   50
Mar 16 Mon   64
Mar 17 Tue   87
Mar 18 Wed   114
Mar 19 Thu   143
Mar 20 Fri   139
Mar 21 Sat   178
Mar 22 Sun   226
Mar 23 Mon   258
Mar 24 Tue   298
Mar 25 Wed   338
Mar 26 Thu   368
Mar 27 Fri   399
Mar 28 Sat   491
Mar 29 Sun   572
Mar 30 Mon   569
Mar 31 Tue   622
Apr 01 Wed   621
Apr 02 Thu   609
Apr 03 Fri   602
Apr 04 Sat   580
Apr 05 Sun   554
Apr 06 Mon   528
Apr 07 Tue   494
Apr 08 Wed   464
Apr 09 Thu   410
Apr 10 Fri   302
Apr 11 Sat   265
Apr 12 Sun   239
Apr 13 Mon   192
Apr 14 Tue   159
Apr 15 Wed   148
Apr 16 Thu   150
Apr 17 Fri   129
Apr 18 Sat   133
Apr 19 Sun   125
Apr 20 Mon   118
Apr 21 Tue   119
Apr 22 Wed   78
Apr 23 Thu   70
Apr 24 Fri   73
Apr 25 Sat   68
Apr 26 Sun   67
Apr 27 Mon   52
Apr 28 Tue   54
Apr 29 Wed   49
Apr 30 Thu   52
May 01 Fri   53
May 02 Sat   53
May 03 Sun   66
May 04 Mon   78
May 05 Tue   94
May 06 Wed   101
May 07 Thu   114
May 08 Fri   122
May 09 Sat   132
May 10 Sun   123
May 11 Mon   116
May 12 Tue   115
May 13 Wed   111
May 14 Thu   120
May 15 Fri   118
May 16 Sat   119
May 17 Sun   126
May 18 Mon   110
May 19 Tue   101
May 20 Wed   97
May 21 Thu   90
May 22 Fri   96

T-Money$

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2075 on: May 22, 2020, 06:29:42 AM »
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

A lot of neat stuff on this website.

If I read it correctly, the CDC's best estimate is that 1/3 of COVID-19 infections are entirely asymptomatic, for those that develop symptoms the S-iFR is approximately 0.4%. 

LightTripper

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2076 on: May 22, 2020, 06:44:15 AM »
Really? I've been following it here and looks like it was updated yesterday as usual. Have they announced something? They'll get torn to shreds if they start trying to hide data they've been publishing up to now...
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

My mistake. I was looking on the worldometers site and it had a blank for the UK for yesterday. Seems numbers are back being tallied there now.

Thanks!

You're welcome!  Probably just late and missed their deadline?  I think the publication time has been slipping later.

frugalnacho

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2077 on: May 22, 2020, 07:47:40 AM »
I did maths all the way through high school, and I know an exponential (quadratic) curve when I see one. The covid graphs are not exponential. There is a short period of exponential growth, [then we introduce drastic measures to slow the spread], then it quickly linearises and reverses.

I'm curious if you ever covered cause and effect in any of your courses?  At any rate, I've fixed your statement.

I've posted this argument before:

I must sound like a broken record at this point, but areas that have been less impacted in the United States have been so because of precautions. Characterizing this as a New York problem (really a Tri-state + Midwest + Louisiana problem) shows a fundamental misunderstanding of how viruses work. The Tri-state area got it the worst because of travel from Europe. If we didn't severely curtail interstate travel, and if Texans and Californians were gathering in large groups and going to crowded bars and restaurants, the numbers would be much worse.

If Texans and Californians had it as bad as Louisiana does, we'd be looking at another 20,000 deaths. If, god forbid, they had it as bad as New York, we'd be looking at another 65,000 deaths.

The precautions are working, and because they're working, you're getting a lot of cheap second guessing, which is unsurprising. I want to get back to normal too. And we will. But we gotta get this right.

It's truly baffling.  It's like claiming your roof is an overzealous precaution because you never even get rain in your house.

But I feel like you've expanded on it to even more ridiculous lengths.  Not only is the roof an overzealous precaution, but now it's like you're claiming water doesn't even make you wet anyway.  Sure it starts out making you wet, [then you put a roof up], but then you stop getting wet.  The graph of wetness never gets up to saturation, therefore the proper conclusion is that water must not make you that wet.



And preemptively before you start the Sweden circle jerk:

Sweden is #6* on the list of countries in terms of deaths/population.  All the countries that are ahead of Sweden in this regard also had a head start in terms of the outbreak.  Sweden didn't officially order a lockdown, but is in a state of de facto soft lockdown anyway because the citizens don't want to die.  Sweden's economy is trashed just like everyone elses - they are not going to avoid a recession by not ordering lockdowns.  They appear to be getting the worst of both worlds.

*If you exclude San Marino and Andorra.

LWYRUP

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2078 on: May 22, 2020, 07:52:40 AM »
In fact, that's not going to happen in Australia. You've been having a number of new cases in Victoria. That's why most of the other states aren't that interested in opening up.

You've said you're a lawyer, so I guess you've done no STEM subjects past middle school. How far were you in your schooling when you ceased to do maths? I'd like to know, so that people can explain what's happening in a way you can comprehend.

This is really rude post.  Let's flip this around.  What terrible educational system did you come out of that most students stopped doing STEM in middle school?

Really, come on.  Get back on the subject and stop with low blows because everyone can play that game and then the conversation gets ruined. 

JGS1980

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2079 on: May 22, 2020, 09:07:48 AM »
I did maths all the way through high school, and I know an exponential (quadratic) curve when I see one. The covid graphs are not exponential. There is a short period of exponential growth, [then we introduce drastic measures to slow the spread], then it quickly linearises and reverses.

I'm curious if you ever covered cause and effect in any of your courses?  At any rate, I've fixed your statement.

I've posted this argument before:

I must sound like a broken record at this point, but areas that have been less impacted in the United States have been so because of precautions. Characterizing this as a New York problem (really a Tri-state + Midwest + Louisiana problem) shows a fundamental misunderstanding of how viruses work. The Tri-state area got it the worst because of travel from Europe. If we didn't severely curtail interstate travel, and if Texans and Californians were gathering in large groups and going to crowded bars and restaurants, the numbers would be much worse.

If Texans and Californians had it as bad as Louisiana does, we'd be looking at another 20,000 deaths. If, god forbid, they had it as bad as New York, we'd be looking at another 65,000 deaths.

The precautions are working, and because they're working, you're getting a lot of cheap second guessing, which is unsurprising. I want to get back to normal too. And we will. But we gotta get this right.

It's truly baffling.  It's like claiming your roof is an overzealous precaution because you never even get rain in your house.

But I feel like you've expanded on it to even more ridiculous lengths.  Not only is the roof an overzealous precaution, but now it's like you're claiming water doesn't even make you wet anyway.  Sure it starts out making you wet, [then you put a roof up], but then you stop getting wet.  The graph of wetness never gets up to saturation, therefore the proper conclusion is that water must not make you that wet.



And preemptively before you start the Sweden circle jerk:

Sweden is #6* on the list of countries in terms of deaths/population.  All the countries that are ahead of Sweden in this regard also had a head start in terms of the outbreak.  Sweden didn't officially order a lockdown, but is in a state of de facto soft lockdown anyway because the citizens don't want to die.  Sweden's economy is trashed just like everyone elses - they are not going to avoid a recession by not ordering lockdowns.  They appear to be getting the worst of both worlds.

*If you exclude San Marino and Andorra.

+1 Million !!!

Seadog

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2080 on: May 22, 2020, 12:46:50 PM »
Did... did you just "shithole countries"

Yeah, shithole countries. Places where AIDS and corruption are rife, where food shortages and civil war abound, and if you live past 65 you're doing great. Ever been to Lesotho? People are friendly, it's a nice place, but they're powerless to reform their broken society, and life is a bloody grind from cradle to grave. Was never so grateful that I was born in Canada.

I just don't see how you can really expect said shithole countries to jump on board this covid train with social distancing, work from home and all that. Given that a huge portion of their populous don't even have power, superstition is far more common than a grade 6 education, and actual problems like AIDS, Dysentery, Cholera, and Typhoid are what they're worried about. It speaks to western arrogance when that they feel COVID is a real concern in these places, that they're not doing their part to flatten the curve, while their current AIDS/HIV rate is 20% (higher than covid infections basically anywhere), and which is basically a death sentence there.

T-Money$

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2081 on: May 22, 2020, 12:52:47 PM »
Did... did you just "shithole countries"

Yeah, shithole countries. Places where AIDS and corruption are rife, where food shortages and civil war abound, and if you live past 65 you're doing great. Ever been to Lesotho? People are friendly, it's a nice place, but they're powerless to reform their broken society, and life is a bloody grind from cradle to grave. Was never so grateful that I was born in Canada.

I just don't see how you can really expect said shithole countries to jump on board this covid train with social distancing, work from home and all that. Given that a huge portion of their populous don't even have power, superstition is far more common than a grade 6 education, and actual problems like AIDS, Dysentery, Cholera, and Typhoid are what they're worried about. It speaks to western arrogance when that they feel COVID is a real concern in these places, that they're not doing their part to flatten the curve, while their current AIDS/HIV rate is 20% (higher than covid infections basically anywhere), and which is basically a death sentence there.

If a country has very few residents that are obese senior citizens it doesn’t seem rational to care about COVID-19.   

Never mind the politics of sub-Saharan Africa, but a place like Vietnam...young and thin.   Doesn’t seem like they would need to spend much time or money on a disease like this.

Poverty seems a lot more risky than COVID-19.  Come to think of it, the reaction to COVID-19 in the “Karen countries” seems a lot more risky than COVID-19. 

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2082 on: May 22, 2020, 01:01:04 PM »
Did... did you just "shithole countries"

Yeah, shithole countries. Places where AIDS and corruption are rife, where food shortages and civil war abound, and if you live past 65 you're doing great. Ever been to Lesotho? People are friendly, it's a nice place, but they're powerless to reform their broken society, and life is a bloody grind from cradle to grave. Was never so grateful that I was born in Canada.

I just don't see how you can really expect said shithole countries to jump on board this covid train with social distancing, work from home and all that. Given that a huge portion of their populous don't even have power, superstition is far more common than a grade 6 education, and actual problems like AIDS, Dysentery, Cholera, and Typhoid are what they're worried about. It speaks to western arrogance when that they feel COVID is a real concern in these places, that they're not doing their part to flatten the curve, while their current AIDS/HIV rate is 20% (higher than covid infections basically anywhere), and which is basically a death sentence there.

Might be beneficial for you to learn more about why many of these countries are so far behind (psst, it’s got a lot to do with exploitation)

GardenerB

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2083 on: May 22, 2020, 01:08:20 PM »
Thoughts?

https://unherd.com/2020/05/oxford-doubles-down-sunetra-gupta-interview/?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3

My thoughts - I agree with pretty much a blend of Sunetra, Ferguson and Giesecke:

1)  Only deaths are useful to track - the tested case numbers are not really useful (estimated case numbers are).
2)  The virus spread at least 1 month earlier than first thought (by then it was already spread all around even before 'lockdowns')
3)  Scaring people into lockdown mentality did much more than gov't lockdown - people were already isolating and distancing.  This is/was good propaganda.
4)  Even with outliers like Belgium, Italy, NYC, and New Zealand, the outbreaks have followed SIR models quite well, similar to any other coronavirus.
5)  The models and data support both Ferguson (IFR of 0.8 to 1%) and Sunetra (IFR of 0.05 to 0.1%)  Somewhere in between won't be known for another year once we know how many additional had it but fought it off with no antibodies made.  Obviously IFR widely-varies based on the usual (co-morbidities, age, strain, etc.)
6)  Lockdowns based on scaring people (Ferguson, modeling 250k deaths if no lockdown) is/was justified at the time.
7)  Releasing lockdowns will still have a large % of people too scared to go out, but a larger % not, still with distancing and no large gatherings.  This will help keep spread low.
8)  Anyone see or read any published articles yet on studies for recovered people with no antibodies produced?  Sunetra is assuming this would account for a very large portion of missed infections (no symptoms, recovered, no antibodies made) based on previous coronavirus immunity.  But still this doesn't mean they can't get re-infected.

When I look at the death curves following SIR - yes there are large outliers - Belgium to New Zealand curves.  Large groups clustered around USA, UK, Swedish curves, and another grouping around Germany, Denmark, Norway etc.  Still - all roughly the same trends.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Check back in around mid August, then again after it sweeps through the southern hemisphere.  Will we get the winter second wave back again?

GB
« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 01:29:31 PM by GardenerB »

Seadog

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2084 on: May 22, 2020, 01:29:08 PM »

Poverty seems a lot more risky than COVID-19.  Come to think of it, the reaction to COVID-19 in the “Karen countries” seems a lot more risky than COVID-19.

What reaction is that? The premature opening up, or knee-jerk shutting down? I'm still not sure I get the Karen meme. I researched it, and it said it was your typical helicopter mom, middle/upper middle class white woman who's pretty ignorant about most things, fueled in no small part by never having experienced any real hardship in life. As a consequence, they're anti-vaxxer, anti-covid measures, anti science, and anti anything outside of their personal reality, which was largly effected by things outside of their control or observation (ie hoards of ppl getting vaccinated against polio 75 years ago) and quite content to go along in their comfortable bubble of ignorance.

From what I've seen, it's the opposite is a bigger problem. The same level of ignorance, but manifested in an irrational, hysterical paranoia. Gov't says gatherings of 5 are fine? Well they'll stick to gatherings of zero. One shopper per household, and try to limit visits to once per week? How about zero shoppers per household, and zero visits per week. People whom despite being in their early 30s and in fine health, are not just observing the 6' rule, but are amplifying 5x, and convinced if they get within 10 yards of anyone, ever, even as restrictions are lightening up, they'll die, and are keen to shame anyone else who takes a more relaxed stance. Mind you these people almost by definition experiencing zero financial hardship from this, or may even be better off.

Or does the term just encompass all those wholly detached from the reality of the situation on either end?

former player

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2085 on: May 22, 2020, 01:45:22 PM »

Poverty seems a lot more risky than COVID-19.  Come to think of it, the reaction to COVID-19 in the “Karen countries” seems a lot more risky than COVID-19.

What reaction is that? The premature opening up, or knee-jerk shutting down? I'm still not sure I get the Karen meme. I researched it, and it said it was your typical helicopter mom, middle/upper middle class white woman who's pretty ignorant about most things, fueled in no small part by never having experienced any real hardship in life. As a consequence, they're anti-vaxxer, anti-covid measures, anti science, and anti anything outside of their personal reality, which was largly effected by things outside of their control or observation (ie hoards of ppl getting vaccinated against polio 75 years ago) and quite content to go along in their comfortable bubble of ignorance.

From what I've seen, it's the opposite is a bigger problem. The same level of ignorance, but manifested in an irrational, hysterical paranoia. Gov't says gatherings of 5 are fine? Well they'll stick to gatherings of zero. One shopper per household, and try to limit visits to once per week? How about zero shoppers per household, and zero visits per week. People whom despite being in their early 30s and in fine health, are not just observing the 6' rule, but are amplifying 5x, and convinced if they get within 10 yards of anyone, ever, even as restrictions are lightening up, they'll die, and are keen to shame anyone else who takes a more relaxed stance. Mind you these people almost by definition experiencing zero financial hardship from this, or may even be better off.

Or does the term just encompass all those wholly detached from the reality of the situation on either end?
An exaggerated response to COVID-19 which manifests itself in staying home, staying healthy and not shopping seems like a step towards an MMM lifestyle.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2086 on: May 22, 2020, 02:19:38 PM »
Did... did you just "shithole countries"

Yeah, shithole countries. Places where AIDS and corruption are rife, where food shortages and civil war abound, and if you live past 65 you're doing great. Ever been to Lesotho? People are friendly, it's a nice place, but they're powerless to reform their broken society, and life is a bloody grind from cradle to grave. Was never so grateful that I was born in Canada.

I just don't see how you can really expect said shithole countries to jump on board this covid train with social distancing, work from home and all that. Given that a huge portion of their populous don't even have power, superstition is far more common than a grade 6 education, and actual problems like AIDS, Dysentery, Cholera, and Typhoid are what they're worried about. It speaks to western arrogance when that they feel COVID is a real concern in these places, that they're not doing their part to flatten the curve, while their current AIDS/HIV rate is 20% (higher than covid infections basically anywhere), and which is basically a death sentence there.

I'm in Africa and I just drove through a large city and saw less than 5% of people wearing masks. No social distancing, pretty much just normal activity. A month ago it was a noticeable difference, far less people on the street, probably 20% or more wearing masks, police checkpoints all over the place. But even after a couple months of spreading there's only been a handful of deaths (case count is probably a fraction of reality due to inadequate testing capacity). 50% of the population is under 25, and 95% are under 65. Obesity and other chronic conditions are far less common, though malaria and AIDS are an issue (around 1% AIDS rate) and there's basically just a handful of medical facilities for the whole country. Taken as a whole, even if COVID-19 spreads through the entire country it will probably not cause that many deaths based on the age of the population.

js82

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2087 on: May 22, 2020, 03:24:20 PM »
5)  The models and data support both Ferguson (IFR of 0.8 to 1%) and Sunetra (IFR of 0.05 to 0.1%)  Somewhere in between won't be known for another year once we know how many additional had it but fought it off with no antibodies made.  Obviously IFR widely-varies based on the usual (co-morbidities, age, strain, etc.)

Going to have to disagree with this.  Sunetra's estimates of IFR absolutely cannot be reconciled with the available data.  Belgium, Spain, the UK, Italy and France all have population-level death rates of 0.04-0.08%(NYC area is 0.1-0.2%), and:

1) There's a pretty good data consensus that there's a meaningful undercounting of deaths, in some cases by 20-30%, and
2) There's not evidence to support that >50% of the population has been infected in areas with 0.05% population death rates - antibody testing has come in well below that in most cases, and you'd have to assume a pretty stratospheric value of R to assume an IFR of <0.1% for a population-level death rate of 0.08%(Belgium).

There's no reasonable set of assumptions I can see that gets you to <0.1% IFR based on the available data, barring demographics significantly younger than most of the US/Europe, or doing a truly exceptional job of isolating the vulnerable, beyond what anyone has yet accomplished.

T-Money$

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2088 on: May 22, 2020, 03:31:42 PM »

Poverty seems a lot more risky than COVID-19.  Come to think of it, the reaction to COVID-19 in the “Karen countries” seems a lot more risky than COVID-19.

What reaction is that? The premature opening up, or knee-jerk shutting down? I'm still not sure I get the Karen meme. I researched it, and it said it was your typical helicopter mom, middle/upper middle class white woman who's pretty ignorant about most things, fueled in no small part by never having experienced any real hardship in life. As a consequence, they're anti-vaxxer, anti-covid measures, anti science, and anti anything outside of their personal reality, which was largly effected by things outside of their control or observation (ie hoards of ppl getting vaccinated against polio 75 years ago) and quite content to go along in their comfortable bubble of ignorance.

From what I've seen, it's the opposite is a bigger problem. The same level of ignorance, but manifested in an irrational, hysterical paranoia. Gov't says gatherings of 5 are fine? Well they'll stick to gatherings of zero. One shopper per household, and try to limit visits to once per week? How about zero shoppers per household, and zero visits per week. People whom despite being in their early 30s and in fine health, are not just observing the 6' rule, but are amplifying 5x, and convinced if they get within 10 yards of anyone, ever, even as restrictions are lightening up, they'll die, and are keen to shame anyone else who takes a more relaxed stance. Mind you these people almost by definition experiencing zero financial hardship from this, or may even be better off.

Or does the term just encompass all those wholly detached from the reality of the situation on either end?

As usual I did not explain myself well.

Karen is a derogatory term for a middle aged entitled woman.

Much of the world doesn't have the means to withstand a lockdown.  Locking down is something that rich people do.  Elderly can do it because they are usually already retired, already receive government checks and medical care.  Even in the USA, there isn't much stomach for a lock down once businesses start failing, people lose their jobs and future.  This is the reason the lockdowns are ending...it's difficult to lockdown when a bank forecloses on a house or place of business.

A Karen is a western phenomenon.  Africa and much of Latin America/Asia won't tolerate a lockdown because food and housing are more critical than attempting to contain a not particularly lethal virus.   In a sense, the dangers of COVID-19 are first world.  As we go to second and third world nations there aren't a lot of obese, elderly people to infect.  I see COVID-19 as a lethal form of gout. 

Lockdowns are for the privileged, which I find a paradox since the Lefties seem so enamored with them.  In the end, lockdowns without a doubt redistribute wealth from the poor and working class to the rich and successful. 

https://theconversation.com/five-ways-coronavirus-lockdowns-increase-inequality-135767

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/lockdowns-are-fine-rich-billions-are-too-poor-shelter-coronavirus-n1168246

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nickmorrison/2020/04/09/lockdown-will-only-widen-the-gap-between-rich-and-poor-students/#562a269f54ad

Politics make strange (and irrational) bedfellows.  And unfortunately government policy is almost entirely based on politics and not on medicinal science.

T-Money$

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2089 on: May 22, 2020, 03:42:24 PM »

Poverty seems a lot more risky than COVID-19.  Come to think of it, the reaction to COVID-19 in the “Karen countries” seems a lot more risky than COVID-19.

What reaction is that? The premature opening up, or knee-jerk shutting down? I'm still not sure I get the Karen meme. I researched it, and it said it was your typical helicopter mom, middle/upper middle class white woman who's pretty ignorant about most things, fueled in no small part by never having experienced any real hardship in life. As a consequence, they're anti-vaxxer, anti-covid measures, anti science, and anti anything outside of their personal reality, which was largly effected by things outside of their control or observation (ie hoards of ppl getting vaccinated against polio 75 years ago) and quite content to go along in their comfortable bubble of ignorance.

From what I've seen, it's the opposite is a bigger problem. The same level of ignorance, but manifested in an irrational, hysterical paranoia. Gov't says gatherings of 5 are fine? Well they'll stick to gatherings of zero. One shopper per household, and try to limit visits to once per week? How about zero shoppers per household, and zero visits per week. People whom despite being in their early 30s and in fine health, are not just observing the 6' rule, but are amplifying 5x, and convinced if they get within 10 yards of anyone, ever, even as restrictions are lightening up, they'll die, and are keen to shame anyone else who takes a more relaxed stance. Mind you these people almost by definition experiencing zero financial hardship from this, or may even be better off.

Or does the term just encompass all those wholly detached from the reality of the situation on either end?
An exaggerated response to COVID-19 which manifests itself in staying home, staying healthy and not shopping seems like a step towards an MMM lifestyle.

I'm not sure voluntarily forcing 25% out of the workforce through government policy and $3 trillion in added debt is a step towards an MMM lifestyle?

But I find the lessons MMM wrote about a couple months ago true today:

https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2020/03/03/coronavirus-stock-market/

scottish

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2090 on: May 22, 2020, 06:01:21 PM »
According to this, the US is going all out to have a vaccine by year end.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-us-planning-massive-coronavirus-vaccine-testing-effort-to-meet-year/

Quote
The United States plans a massive testing effort involving more than 100,000 volunteers and a half dozen or so of the most promising vaccine candidates in an effort to deliver a safe and effective one by the end of 2020, scientists leading the program told Reuters.

The project will compress what is typically 10 years of vaccine development and testing into a matter of months, testimony to the urgency to halt a pandemic that has infected more than 5 million people, killed more than 335,000 and battered economies worldwide.

In my business trying to compress a project schedule by a factor of 10 inevitably leads to a disaster.   

But what could go wrong with a vaccine?     There's a long list of medical disasters.   Some due to inadequate trials (thalidomide) and some due to manufacturing errors (Syrian measles vaccine, German TB vaccine), and many many others.

We've already seen the Prez convince the medical community to give an unsafe med (plaquenil/quinine) to covid victims that actually increased their mortality risk.    Hopefully he won't convince doctors to distribute millions of doses of an unsafe vaccine.     The man has an uncanny genius for convincing people to do things that are not in their best interest.

LWYRUP

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2091 on: May 22, 2020, 06:05:59 PM »

Personally, I have always considered "Karen" and "Becky" and things of that sort to be basically coded racist & sexist slurs. 

MudPuppy

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2092 on: May 22, 2020, 06:15:57 PM »
LOL

Bloop Bloop

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2093 on: May 22, 2020, 06:32:11 PM »
I did maths all the way through high school, and I know an exponential (quadratic) curve when I see one. The covid graphs are not exponential. There is a short period of exponential growth, [then we introduce drastic measures to slow the spread], then it quickly linearises and reverses.

I'm curious if you ever covered cause and effect in any of your courses?  At any rate, I've fixed your statement.

I've posted this argument before:

I must sound like a broken record at this point, but areas that have been less impacted in the United States have been so because of precautions. Characterizing this as a New York problem (really a Tri-state + Midwest + Louisiana problem) shows a fundamental misunderstanding of how viruses work. The Tri-state area got it the worst because of travel from Europe. If we didn't severely curtail interstate travel, and if Texans and Californians were gathering in large groups and going to crowded bars and restaurants, the numbers would be much worse.

If Texans and Californians had it as bad as Louisiana does, we'd be looking at another 20,000 deaths. If, god forbid, they had it as bad as New York, we'd be looking at another 65,000 deaths.

The precautions are working, and because they're working, you're getting a lot of cheap second guessing, which is unsurprising. I want to get back to normal too. And we will. But we gotta get this right.

It's truly baffling.  It's like claiming your roof is an overzealous precaution because you never even get rain in your house.

But I feel like you've expanded on it to even more ridiculous lengths.  Not only is the roof an overzealous precaution, but now it's like you're claiming water doesn't even make you wet anyway.  Sure it starts out making you wet, [then you put a roof up], but then you stop getting wet.  The graph of wetness never gets up to saturation, therefore the proper conclusion is that water must not make you that wet.



And preemptively before you start the Sweden circle jerk:

Sweden is #6* on the list of countries in terms of deaths/population.  All the countries that are ahead of Sweden in this regard also had a head start in terms of the outbreak.  Sweden didn't officially order a lockdown, but is in a state of de facto soft lockdown anyway because the citizens don't want to die.  Sweden's economy is trashed just like everyone elses - they are not going to avoid a recession by not ordering lockdowns.  They appear to be getting the worst of both worlds.

*If you exclude San Marino and Andorra.

+1 Million !!!
No, you don't need hard lockdowns to flatten the curve. Look at Sweden. The curve levelled off within 4 weeks, and it was never exponential to begin with. Go have a look at the curve. "Going up slightly faster than linear for a few days" does not mean that it fits a quadratic function.

That's my point. The whole talking about exponential growth is bullshit. That's not how viruses work. Otherwise every year there'd be exponential growth of the flu and we'd all get it - and that doesn't happen. And before you say, "well, the flu has a lower transmission rate", we also take nil precautions to fend against a contagious disease and yet it doesn't impact the whole of the population.

T-Money$

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Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2095 on: May 22, 2020, 07:08:19 PM »

That's my point. The whole talking about exponential growth is bullshit. That's not how viruses work. Otherwise every year there'd be exponential growth of the flu and we'd all get it - and that doesn't happen. And before you say, "well, the flu has a lower transmission rate", we also take nil precautions to fend against a contagious disease and yet it doesn't impact the whole of the population.

Flu vaccine doesn’t count?

Graph of flu cases in US: clearly an exponential phase is observed in most years:

https://gis.cdc.gov/GRASP/Fluview/FluHospRates.html

I don’t think anyone would say there’s a unending exponential phase until everyone is infected. But saying that viruses can’t spread exponentially is clearly incorrect, too.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 07:59:51 PM by Abe »

Abe

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2096 on: May 22, 2020, 08:06:20 PM »
Japan didn’t have a lockdown yet did better than just about every first world nation:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-22/did-japan-just-beat-the-virus-without-lockdowns-or-mass-testing

https://www.tokyoreview.net/2020/05/time-to-give-japan-credit-for-its-covid-19-response/

They did have a partial lockdown. Hence the decline in their economy:
“ The state of emergency, first declared in some areas on April 6, allows local governments to direct businesses to close and to urge residents to stay in their homes, though there are no penalties for failure to comply.”

“Economists have warned the second quarter will be the worst on record, and the specter of deflation, which haunted the economy for decades, once again looms.”

Similar to many other countries, with varying levels of strictness. They did implement contact tracing more robustly than most countries, like other Asian countries with experience epidemics.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 08:08:17 PM by Abe »

marty998

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2097 on: May 22, 2020, 09:43:29 PM »
I did maths all the way through high school, and I know an exponential (quadratic) curve when I see one. The covid graphs are not exponential. There is a short period of exponential growth, [then we introduce drastic measures to slow the spread], then it quickly linearises and reverses.

I'm curious if you ever covered cause and effect in any of your courses?  At any rate, I've fixed your statement.

I've posted this argument before:

I must sound like a broken record at this point, but areas that have been less impacted in the United States have been so because of precautions. Characterizing this as a New York problem (really a Tri-state + Midwest + Louisiana problem) shows a fundamental misunderstanding of how viruses work. The Tri-state area got it the worst because of travel from Europe. If we didn't severely curtail interstate travel, and if Texans and Californians were gathering in large groups and going to crowded bars and restaurants, the numbers would be much worse.

If Texans and Californians had it as bad as Louisiana does, we'd be looking at another 20,000 deaths. If, god forbid, they had it as bad as New York, we'd be looking at another 65,000 deaths.

The precautions are working, and because they're working, you're getting a lot of cheap second guessing, which is unsurprising. I want to get back to normal too. And we will. But we gotta get this right.

It's truly baffling.  It's like claiming your roof is an overzealous precaution because you never even get rain in your house.

But I feel like you've expanded on it to even more ridiculous lengths.  Not only is the roof an overzealous precaution, but now it's like you're claiming water doesn't even make you wet anyway.  Sure it starts out making you wet, [then you put a roof up], but then you stop getting wet.  The graph of wetness never gets up to saturation, therefore the proper conclusion is that water must not make you that wet.



And preemptively before you start the Sweden circle jerk:

Sweden is #6* on the list of countries in terms of deaths/population.  All the countries that are ahead of Sweden in this regard also had a head start in terms of the outbreak.  Sweden didn't officially order a lockdown, but is in a state of de facto soft lockdown anyway because the citizens don't want to die.  Sweden's economy is trashed just like everyone elses - they are not going to avoid a recession by not ordering lockdowns.  They appear to be getting the worst of both worlds.

*If you exclude San Marino and Andorra.

+1 Million !!!
No, you don't need hard lockdowns to flatten the curve. Look at Sweden. The curve levelled off within 4 weeks, and it was never exponential to begin with. Go have a look at the curve. "Going up slightly faster than linear for a few days" does not mean that it fits a quadratic function.


The mathematician in me is offended. There's a difference between quadratic and exponent functions, please stop conflating the two.

A quadratic's rate of change is constant (first derivative is linear). An exponent's rate of change is proportionate to itself (first derivate is obviously not linear).

Plina

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2098 on: May 23, 2020, 12:25:32 AM »
According to this, the US is going all out to have a vaccine by year end.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-us-planning-massive-coronavirus-vaccine-testing-effort-to-meet-year/

Quote
The United States plans a massive testing effort involving more than 100,000 volunteers and a half dozen or so of the most promising vaccine candidates in an effort to deliver a safe and effective one by the end of 2020, scientists leading the program told Reuters.

The project will compress what is typically 10 years of vaccine development and testing into a matter of months, testimony to the urgency to halt a pandemic that has infected more than 5 million people, killed more than 335,000 and battered economies worldwide.

In my business trying to compress a project schedule by a factor of 10 inevitably leads to a disaster.   

But what could go wrong with a vaccine?     There's a long list of medical disasters.   Some due to inadequate trials (thalidomide) and some due to manufacturing errors (Syrian measles vaccine, German TB vaccine), and many many others.

We've already seen the Prez convince the medical community to give an unsafe med (plaquenil/quinine) to covid victims that actually increased their mortality risk.    Hopefully he won't convince doctors to distribute millions of doses of an unsafe vaccine.     The man has an uncanny genius for convincing people to do things that are not in their best interest.

It will probably turn into a massive testing experiment on americans if they still have the same president, while the rest of the world go through their normal testing before approval. Personally, I will not be the first in line for that vaccine.

LWYRUP

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Re: How long can we wait while flattening the curve?
« Reply #2099 on: May 23, 2020, 04:00:41 AM »
Given that I'm young and healthy, assuming we established that the immunity from getting the disease did last at least a few years, then I think I'd take my chances with the disease than a hastily produced vaccine.  (And, no, I am not anti-vaccine in general, my concern has to do with accelerating the usual safety checks in the development process here.)