As I have said before, I am an automotive engineer. I have not only driven in recent autonomous Teslas, but in other autonomous vehicles and their predecessors since 2002.
How would you rate the various systems and what are the biggest improvements needed?
I think there are many systems that can manage milk run / suburban commute runs in good lighting and good weather. It's not just the cars that have improved since the DARPA Grand Challenge in 2004, but a lot of technologies that have matured along with them: GPU's, of course, but also mapping apps and data quality, 3G -> 4G -> 5G mobile phones, sensors, including low cost, high-res cameras, lower cost, high-res radar, and yes liars, smart infrastructure, which some solutions interact with / rely on, etc.
I have not yet ridden in a BYD AV. If you take the easy pick to say it's Waymo vs. Tesla, with everyone else's future quite speculative because they have limited commitment or pockets that aren't as deep, you can clearly see two schools of thought. Waymo is very much an engineering solution, that isn't as worried about its looks or pace, as much as accomplishing it's mission. It is by no means perfect, but they are methodical in their approach. Take highway driving, for instance. Clearly, the stakes are higher because crashes are more severe at speed. It also pits a challenge to sensors and their range, because (stationary) objects approach the car faster, from the sensors viewpoint, and the car has less time to process reactions. Waymo has been driving on hjghways since early last year, and got clearance to drive to SFO last November. They have not begun to do do that commercially yet, as they are still mapping that unique environment.
If you had to characterize the experience in a Waymo, you would say it's "cautious." And it is, maybe even hesitant at some points. If you are confident enough that you aren't paying attention, you might not notice. If you yourself are an aggressive driver, you might get annoyed at the wasted time. This isn't because their sensors are worse (they are much better) or they lack processing power. It's a conscious choice; as conscious as Tesla's aggression.
Tesla is Tesla, and it's not a secret I have problems with their approach. But, make no mistake, they have come a long way, and do a lot with their minimalist suite. I hate, hate, hate the false advertising that is the name Full Self Drive. An Optimist would call it simply aspirational, but taken with Elon's constant promising and unofficial comments, I think it lulls early adopters into trusting the system more than they should, which gives rupiae to Darwin Award-winning stunts like taking your friend for a ride in the back seat, or getting decapitated because Harry Potter was too interesting to pay attention to the semi crossing the road.
Besides catastrophic failures, Teslas are generally more aggressive. This is selectable, to some extent, but even "successful" drive videos (with no interventions) you regularly see Teslas doing 70 mph in a 55, full speed in a school zone, questionable stops, etc. No other automotive company on the planet would have a car push limits like that. That could make a capitalist see an opportunity, and for sure small, aftermarket companies have provided engine chipsets that cheat emissions regulations for the sake of power for decades. But, the liability for tickets, the possibility of class action or government intervention, etc. are apparent to all. And, I don't think Tesla misses this; they have chosen legal positioning as aggressive as the driving, on purpose. You can do that, for a while, when you're cool.
A lot of people think 13.2.8 (and now 9) has become somewhat more cautious, which is interesting because they were looking to address the tweaks I had been posting about recently, with the school zones, slow running of reds, and stops in general. Maybe there is some tipping point they are working around, but many enthusiasts seem to feel the difference. Will that behavior be criticized by fans? I actually see it as an interesting meta signal: maybe, with commercial operation (and full liability) approaching, Tesla is growing up.
While I am no fan of Tesla, I do hope their launch goes well. Fender benders and getting stuck in parking lots are funny for observers. But fatalities by anybody set the whole industry back. That is really what Tesla risks, with its envelope-pushing.
