Author Topic: Is Tesla a good investment?  (Read 161371 times)

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #950 on: May 03, 2022, 05:58:20 PM »
I actually think that historical titans of business like Thomas Edison or Andrew Carnegie--or even more recent ones like Walt Disney--benefitted from not being on Twitter, where we could have viewed their ignorant opinions about a variety of topics largely unrelated to the companies and legacies they built.

Yep. Few people know how awful Henry Ford was:
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/henryford-antisemitism/
https://www.history.com/news/henry-ford-antisemitism-worker-treatment

Carnegie sponsored Eugenics:
https://historynewsnetwork.org/article/1796

Edison was generally awful:
https://medium.com/lessons-from-history/thomas-edison-the-first-tech-jerk-d1b869f833dc
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/retropolis/wp/2017/04/26/thomas-edison-the-electric-chair-and-a-botched-execution-a-death-penalty-primer/


soulpatchmike

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #951 on: May 05, 2022, 10:08:23 AM »
Anyone here with money invested in Tesla have any concern over the extent to which Tesla's success is seemingly tied to Elon Musk and his public image?

Asking as someone invested in TSLA via index funds.

He had to live in the factory for ~3 years to get over the "start-up" hurdle.  If he got hit by a bus today, they would survive and thrive.  The missions are clear for his businesses and they are run by competent lieutenants.  The ability to move as fast or streamlined on new products and ideas may not happen with him gone, but both telsa and spaceX are beyond the startup phase.  The next 5-10 years of innovation are already conceived at SpaceX and Tesla, they are executing now.  This is why I have no concern over him shifting focus to Twitter to put a first principle thinking culture into the business and get their system in order.

Apples Cap rate has increased from 350B to 2.75T since Jobs died with essentially no new hardware class developments other than apple watch.  If Elon was gone and all Tesla did was execute on already announced products, I don't see how much of anything would change in their growth projections for the next 5-10 years.

lutorm

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #952 on: May 10, 2022, 06:48:39 PM »
Anyone here with money invested in Tesla have any concern over the extent to which Tesla's success is seemingly tied to Elon Musk and his public image?

Asking as someone invested in TSLA via index funds.

He had to live in the factory for ~3 years to get over the "start-up" hurdle.  If he got hit by a bus today, they would survive and thrive.  The missions are clear for his businesses and they are run by competent lieutenants.  The ability to move as fast or streamlined on new products and ideas may not happen with him gone, but both telsa and spaceX are beyond the startup phase.  The next 5-10 years of innovation are already conceived at SpaceX and Tesla, they are executing now.  This is why I have no concern over him shifting focus to Twitter to put a first principle thinking culture into the business and get their system in order.

Apples Cap rate has increased from 350B to 2.75T since Jobs died with essentially no new hardware class developments other than apple watch.  If Elon was gone and all Tesla did was execute on already announced products, I don't see how much of anything would change in their growth projections for the next 5-10 years.
I think you might be underestimating how much of Elon's function has to do with execution as opposed to lofty innovation.

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #953 on: May 13, 2022, 10:44:25 AM »
I think you might be underestimating how much of Elon's function has to do with execution as opposed to lofty innovation.

You seem to be underestimating his technical understanding and involvement to a significant degree. He wrote all the software for his first startup Zip2 while Kimbal ran the daytime business. If you can see him talking with an actual technical person in the appropriate field instead of a generic journalist, his expertise becomes very obvious.

Example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t705r8ICkRw

That said, on a personal basis he is often an asshole and seems to be getting increasingly out of touch.

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #954 on: May 13, 2022, 02:01:19 PM »
I think you might be underestimating how much of Elon's function has to do with execution as opposed to lofty innovation.

You seem to be underestimating his technical understanding and involvement to a significant degree. He wrote all the software for his first startup Zip2 while Kimbal ran the daytime business. If you can see him talking with an actual technical person in the appropriate field instead of a generic journalist, his expertise becomes very obvious.

Example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t705r8ICkRw

That said, on a personal basis he is often an asshole and seems to be getting increasingly out of touch.

There are a couple more potential issues with this.

1) Someone can be technically very good at one thing, but that may or may not translate well to other fields of knowledge, even adjacent ones. Elon could be very good at making/selling electric cars, for instance, but very bad at infrastructure design. But because he's good in the EV field he is assumed, by himself and others, to have this infrastructure knowledge. And that can cause quite a bit of tension where there should be collaboration.

2) I actually can't tell how deep his knowledge goes in many of these fields. He obviously knows his stuff, but does he know much more than the average person working 13 hours a day (or whatever he claims) on said projects? After a few years in any given field, I can sound pretty competent to a fellow amateur or layperson.

For him, the proof of the pudding is in the eating, and it cannot be denied that he has an effective combination of vision, technical knowledge, salesmanship, and (I would say) apathy to make successful businesses the way he has. But I don't trust him for a minute, and I don't think he really spends much time thinking along future timelines that would be inconvenient to him.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #955 on: May 13, 2022, 02:29:31 PM »
That said, on a personal basis he is often an asshole and seems to be getting increasingly out of touch.
"Elon Musk is a business ‘savant,’ but ‘his gift is not empathy,’ according to his brother Kimbal"
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/28/elon-musk-business-savant-with-limited-empathy-says-brother-kimbal.html

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #956 on: May 13, 2022, 02:50:40 PM »
Elon Musk agreed to buy Twitter for $43 billion, but the market clearly doesn't think the deal happens for that price: TWTR has a $32 billion market cap.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TWTR/

I think the board might have to cave in to Mr Musk's demands.  If Elon Musk pays $1 billion to Twitter and exits the deal, their stock will likely collapse further... say by another 20%, to $25 billion.  So Mr Musk can say "how about $28 billion?", and the board may be pissed off about it, but what can they do?  Mr Musk can pay $1 billion to shave $10 billion or so off the buy price.  And when he takes control of the company - he gets control of his $1 billion back!

Running some math... avg proxy vote 86% participation means a majority is 43%.  Mr Musk starts at 15%, and needs 28% for a majority... the board starts with 0% and has to get a full 43% to get their agenda.  Because Mr Musk has 15% and the board 0%, even convincing 2/5th of voters to side with Musk gives him a majority.  Jack Dorsey was pushed out in 2008, so my guess is he doesn't side with the current board, but rather with his friend Elon Musk.  So then you get one of the most famous people for Twitter coming in and siding with Mr Musk.

I suspect Elon Musk wins the fight to buy Twitter.  But until he's got the cash ready, there's a concern he will sell huge blocks of TSLA stock to come up with the money.

bacchi

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #957 on: May 13, 2022, 03:18:51 PM »
Elon Musk agreed to buy Twitter for $43 billion, but the market clearly doesn't think the deal happens for that price: TWTR has a $32 billion market cap.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TWTR/

I think the board might have to cave in to Mr Musk's demands.  If Elon Musk pays $1 billion to Twitter and exits the deal, their stock will likely collapse further... say by another 20%, to $25 billion.  So Mr Musk can say "how about $28 billion?", and the board may be pissed off about it, but what can they do?  Mr Musk can pay $1 billion to shave $10 billion or so off the buy price.  And when he takes control of the company - he gets control of his $1 billion back!

Running some math... avg proxy vote 86% participation means a majority is 43%.  Mr Musk starts at 15%, and needs 28% for a majority... the board starts with 0% and has to get a full 43% to get their agenda.  Because Mr Musk has 15% and the board 0%, even convincing 2/5th of voters to side with Musk gives him a majority.  Jack Dorsey was pushed out in 2008, so my guess is he doesn't side with the current board, but rather with his friend Elon Musk.  So then you get one of the most famous people for Twitter coming in and siding with Mr Musk.

I suspect Elon Musk wins the fight to buy Twitter.  But until he's got the cash ready, there's a concern he will sell huge blocks of TSLA stock to come up with the money.

Is that legal? File to buy a company, back out to depress the price, and then file again at a lower price? Why wouldn't all mergers/takeovers happen that way?

There is interest from a fund that owns ~10% of the stock. Vanguard owns another 10%. Why would they agree to sell their shares at a lower price than the original offer because Musk was playing games?


ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #958 on: May 13, 2022, 08:18:37 PM »
Elon Musk agreed to buy Twitter for $43 billion, but the market clearly doesn't think the deal happens for that price: TWTR has a $32 billion market cap.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TWTR/

I think the board might have to cave in to Mr Musk's demands.  If Elon Musk pays $1 billion to Twitter and exits the deal, their stock will likely collapse further... say by another 20%, to $25 billion.  So Mr Musk can say "how about $28 billion?", and the board may be pissed off about it, but what can they do?  Mr Musk can pay $1 billion to shave $10 billion or so off the buy price.  And when he takes control of the company - he gets control of his $1 billion back!

Running some math... avg proxy vote 86% participation means a majority is 43%.  Mr Musk starts at 15%, and needs 28% for a majority... the board starts with 0% and has to get a full 43% to get their agenda.  Because Mr Musk has 15% and the board 0%, even convincing 2/5th of voters to side with Musk gives him a majority.  Jack Dorsey was pushed out in 2008, so my guess is he doesn't side with the current board, but rather with his friend Elon Musk.  So then you get one of the most famous people for Twitter coming in and siding with Mr Musk.

I suspect Elon Musk wins the fight to buy Twitter.  But until he's got the cash ready, there's a concern he will sell huge blocks of TSLA stock to come up with the money.

Is that legal? File to buy a company, back out to depress the price, and then file again at a lower price? Why wouldn't all mergers/takeovers happen that way?

There is interest from a fund that owns ~10% of the stock. Vanguard owns another 10%. Why would they agree to sell their shares at a lower price than the original offer because Musk was playing games?

This is supposedly the contingency that led Twitter to put that $1B earnest money agreement into the contract, but as @MustacheAndaHalf points out, TWTR stock can lose 10x that much on a routine basis. Musk can legally walk away on the fake accounts excuse, and it'll cost him. I wouldn't think he could renegotiate the price though.

So maybe Dr. Evil on the TWTR board said "one BILLION dollars!" and everybody laughed except him, so that amount made it into the agreement. Is getting $1B out of Musk (probably after some litigation and at least a year of delay) worth the distraction his offer has created? Maybe. And maybe it makes sense for TWTR to negotiate a new, weaker moderation policy just so Musk will give up and they can take his $1B.

But the deal is far from dead. Musk's offer is still not out of the range of premiums typically paid in mergers and acquisitions.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #959 on: May 14, 2022, 01:59:53 AM »
Elon Musk agreed to buy Twitter for $43 billion, but the market clearly doesn't think the deal happens for that price: TWTR has a $32 billion market cap.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TWTR/

I think the board might have to cave in to Mr Musk's demands.  If Elon Musk pays $1 billion to Twitter and exits the deal, their stock will likely collapse further... say by another 20%, to $25 billion.  So Mr Musk can say "how about $28 billion?", and the board may be pissed off about it, but what can they do?  Mr Musk can pay $1 billion to shave $10 billion or so off the buy price.  And when he takes control of the company - he gets control of his $1 billion back!

Running some math... avg proxy vote 86% participation means a majority is 43%.  Mr Musk starts at 15%, and needs 28% for a majority... the board starts with 0% and has to get a full 43% to get their agenda.  Because Mr Musk has 15% and the board 0%, even convincing 2/5th of voters to side with Musk gives him a majority.  Jack Dorsey was pushed out in 2008, so my guess is he doesn't side with the current board, but rather with his friend Elon Musk.  So then you get one of the most famous people for Twitter coming in and siding with Mr Musk.

I suspect Elon Musk wins the fight to buy Twitter.  But until he's got the cash ready, there's a concern he will sell huge blocks of TSLA stock to come up with the money.

Is that legal? File to buy a company, back out to depress the price, and then file again at a lower price? Why wouldn't all mergers/takeovers happen that way?

There is interest from a fund that owns ~10% of the stock. Vanguard owns another 10%. Why would they agree to sell their shares at a lower price than the original offer because Musk was playing games?

This is supposedly the contingency that led Twitter to put that $1B earnest money agreement into the contract, but as @MustacheAndaHalf points out, TWTR stock can lose 10x that much on a routine basis. Musk can legally walk away on the fake accounts excuse, and it'll cost him. I wouldn't think he could renegotiate the price though.

So maybe Dr. Evil on the TWTR board said "one BILLION dollars!" and everybody laughed except him, so that amount made it into the agreement. Is getting $1B out of Musk (probably after some litigation and at least a year of delay) worth the distraction his offer has created? Maybe. And maybe it makes sense for TWTR to negotiate a new, weaker moderation policy just so Musk will give up and they can take his $1B.

But the deal is far from dead. Musk's offer is still not out of the range of premiums typically paid in mergers and acquisitions.
In contrast to our views, M&A experts point to prior deals where a buyer was forced to purchase despite large stock drops.  But in a normal M&A, Twitter would be 99% of the way to $54.20 ... not sitting at $40.  So despite what M&A experts believe, the stock market believes the original deal is dead.

It seems Mr Musk is pointing to Twitter claiming 5% bots on Twitter for years.  What he doesn't say is that he believes this is material false information.  If the company claims 95% of users are real, but only 80% are real, that could be a material difference that allows Musk to exit the deal.

Apparently the banning of a conservative satire account from Twitter got Mr Musk interested in buying the company (according to a poster elsewhere on the forum).  My theory has also come true, as Elon Musk said he will unban former President Trump from Twitter and allow him to return.

Watching how Mr Musk dealt with events over the past few years tells me he's politically a libertarian.  He complained about California's Covid-19 rules, threatening to ignore them.  He is moving (or has moved) his company headquarters from California to Texas.  If someone wanted to allow Donald Trump back on Twitter, which party would you guess they were in?

I suspect Tesla will get a new customer base out of this.  I recently tried to check my assumptions by watching some Fox News shows.  There, Elon Musk is hailed as fighting for the right to free speech.  Considering the top 10 TV shows are all Fox News programs, that's a lot of good advertising.  I suspect Tesla's EV sales will pick up in rural areas over the next several years.

bacchi

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #960 on: May 14, 2022, 09:23:57 AM »
Watching how Mr Musk dealt with events over the past few years tells me he's politically a libertarian. 

He's definitely a libertarian. If he does buy Twitter, he may have an "Alan Greenspan" moment.

Quote
I suspect Tesla's EV sales will pick up in rural areas over the next several years.

There's no doubt about that. Will it go up dramatically, though? Ford is already releasing the F150 EV and that style appeals to rural people far more than the goofy cybertruck.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #961 on: May 14, 2022, 04:20:31 PM »
I suspect Tesla's EV sales will pick up in rural areas over the next several years.
There's no doubt about that. Will it go up dramatically, though? Ford is already releasing the F150 EV and that style appeals to rural people far more than the goofy cybertruck.
My thoughts exactly.  But I would add Tesla was probably an even more distant competitor previously, compared to now.  Ford is the favorite U.S. truck, which makes it the favorite of rural voters.  And Tesla would be.. West Coast Elite... adjacent?  I think by Elon Musk championing conservatives return to Twitter,  he gains customers who might have ignored Tesla before.

Tesla has already scaled up, while Ford needs to prove it can scale up EV (in the midst of chip shortages).  In my view, Tesla is gaining on Ford in the EV truck market, but is still going to be a less popular choice if nothing changes from here.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #962 on: May 16, 2022, 07:36:25 AM »
I suspect Tesla's EV sales will pick up in rural areas over the next several years.
There's no doubt about that. Will it go up dramatically, though? Ford is already releasing the F150 EV and that style appeals to rural people far more than the goofy cybertruck.
My thoughts exactly.  But I would add Tesla was probably an even more distant competitor previously, compared to now.  Ford is the favorite U.S. truck, which makes it the favorite of rural voters.  And Tesla would be.. West Coast Elite... adjacent?  I think by Elon Musk championing conservatives return to Twitter,  he gains customers who might have ignored Tesla before.

Tesla has already scaled up, while Ford needs to prove it can scale up EV (in the midst of chip shortages).  In my view, Tesla is gaining on Ford in the EV truck market, but is still going to be a less popular choice if nothing changes from here.

I think it would be easier for Musk to burn the environmental goodwill he has with urban liberals than it would be for rural people to ditch their traditionally-styled trucks and get EVs. What rural people have been lusting over for the past two decades is not a cybertruck; it's a crew cab 4X4 diesel with "custom" exhaust that makes people turn and look when it rattles by.

I doubt Musk's personal politics will change generations-old rural culture. These folks are NOT looking for the next new thing, and they're the demographic most sensitive to range anxiety.

However if Musk keeps making himself into a political lighting rod, what could happen is his core customers start rejecting Tesla - calling it Trumpla - and choosing EVs from any of its dozen competitors.


AdrianC

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #963 on: May 18, 2022, 07:32:24 AM »
I think it would be easier for Musk to burn the environmental goodwill he has with urban liberals...
He already burned some environmental goodwill with me with his support for crypto.
Quote
However if Musk keeps making himself into a political lighting rod, what could happen is his core customers start rejecting Tesla - calling it Trumpla - and choosing EVs from any of its dozen competitors.
That too. We bought a Chevy Bolt, but it was less than half the cost of a Tesla, so there's that.

JenniferW

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #964 on: May 19, 2022, 03:17:35 PM »
I'd have to say Tesla isn't a good investment now.  Elon Musk is alienating 1/2 of the country with his very recent tweets.  I used to really like him and thought it would be cool to own a Tesla. I no longer feel that way and probably wouldn't want to ride in one as a guest passenger.   He's been really unstable lately.

He tweeted this yesterday (May 18, 2022) :

« Last Edit: May 19, 2022, 03:21:10 PM by JenniferW »

v8rx7guy

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #965 on: May 19, 2022, 03:24:51 PM »
I'd have to say Tesla isn't a good investment now.  Elon Musk is alienating 1/2 of the country with his very recent tweets.  I used to really like him and thought it would be cool to own a Tesla. I no longer feel that way and probably wouldn't want to ride in one as a guest passenger.   He's been really unstable lately.

He tweeted this yesterday (May 18, 2022) :



I can't imagine making decisions about what kind of car I ride along in based on which political party the owner prefers at a point in time.

JenniferW

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #966 on: May 19, 2022, 03:28:43 PM »
I'd have to say Tesla isn't a good investment now.  Elon Musk is alienating 1/2 of the country with his very recent tweets.  I used to really like him and thought it would be cool to own a Tesla. I no longer feel that way and probably wouldn't want to ride in one as a guest passenger.   He's been really unstable lately.

He tweeted this yesterday (May 18, 2022) :



I can't imagine making decisions about what kind of car I ride along in based on which political party the owner prefers at a point in time.

The guy is saying more than half of the country are divisive and hateful.  I noticed he pinned the tweet this morning, then he removed the pin since then -- just checked his twitter feed.   He also said Trump should be allowed back on the platform -- he was banned because he incited an insurrection on our nation's capital!
« Last Edit: May 19, 2022, 03:30:35 PM by JenniferW »

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #967 on: May 19, 2022, 03:30:23 PM »
Sigh.  I didn't think Elon Musk would announce he's a Libertarian (who are Republican), but I guess that proves my prior analysis right.

Elon Musk's brother says he's a genius at business, but empathy isn't his strong suit.  Now he will definitely be acceptable to rural America... but what an odd choice for a tweet... Oh, no.  I hope declaring one's politics isn't a prelude to getting more active in politics.

PDXTabs

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #968 on: May 19, 2022, 05:43:23 PM »
Sigh.  I didn't think Elon Musk would announce he's a Libertarian (who are Republican), but I guess that proves my prior analysis right.

Elon Musk's brother says he's a genius at business, but empathy isn't his strong suit.  Now he will definitely be acceptable to rural America... but what an odd choice for a tweet... Oh, no.  I hope declaring one's politics isn't a prelude to getting more active in politics.

Libertarians believe in drugs and abortion. How many are really left in the GOP? NYT: The Elusive Politics of Elon Musk.

All the same, declaring yourself a Republican to sell your electric cars seems like a poor strategy.


PDXTabs

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #969 on: May 19, 2022, 05:44:46 PM »
I'd have to say Tesla isn't a good investment now.  Elon Musk is alienating 1/2 of the country with his very recent tweets.  I used to really like him and thought it would be cool to own a Tesla. I no longer feel that way and probably wouldn't want to ride in one as a guest passenger.   He's been really unstable lately.

He tweeted this yesterday (May 18, 2022) :



I can't imagine making decisions about what kind of car I ride along in based on which political party the owner prefers at a point in time.

The guy is saying more than half of the country are divisive and hateful.  I noticed he pinned the tweet this morning, then he removed the pin since then -- just checked his twitter feed.   He also said Trump should be allowed back on the platform -- he was banned because he incited an insurrection on our nation's capital!

I don't think that he said that the voters are divisive and hateful, but I could be wrong.

EDITed to add: there are only ~49 million registered democrats in America. https://ballotpedia.org/Partisan_affiliations_of_registered_voters That's way less than half the country, even if you count every last one of them as divisive and hateful. 
« Last Edit: May 19, 2022, 05:48:04 PM by PDXTabs »

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #970 on: May 19, 2022, 08:04:35 PM »
Sigh.  I didn't think Elon Musk would announce he's a Libertarian (who are Republican), but I guess that proves my prior analysis right.

Elon Musk's brother says he's a genius at business, but empathy isn't his strong suit.  Now he will definitely be acceptable to rural America... but what an odd choice for a tweet... Oh, no.  I hope declaring one's politics isn't a prelude to getting more active in politics.

Libertarians believe in drugs and abortion. How many are really left in the GOP? NYT: The Elusive Politics of Elon Musk.

All the same, declaring yourself a Republican to sell your electric cars seems like a poor strategy.
I don't have an NYT subscription to view that article.

The question isn't what percent of Republicans are Libertarians.  Given someone is Libertarian, which party should they join?

I suspect because Elon Musk is so openly opinionated on Twitter, and generally controversial, that declaring his politcal party will have a less lasting impact than expected.  So right now it seems significant, but I don't think it will still be considered significant a year from now.

Abe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #971 on: May 19, 2022, 08:31:17 PM »
I think he's just finally being honest. Also being a car company CEO. I've never thought that he was a liberal, he's just making a buck trying to change car manufacturing (and batteries). It'd be like thinking Henry Ford was a liberal because he was making cars cheap and wanted to help the "little guy". No, he just figured out there's only so many millionaires to profit from, so he needed to expand business horizons. The Tesla-is-going-to-save-the-world nonsense has been out of control for a while now. Maybe some of the engineers at Tesla have different political leanings, but honestly who cares? Just churn out those cars and get gas guzzlers off the road! 

Disclosure: I own a fair amount of Tesla stock.

Travis

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #972 on: May 19, 2022, 08:59:50 PM »
I think he's just finally being honest. Also being a car company CEO. I've never thought that he was a liberal, he's just making a buck trying to change car manufacturing (and batteries). It'd be like thinking Henry Ford was a liberal because he was making cars cheap and wanted to help the "little guy". No, he just figured out there's only so many millionaires to profit from, so he needed to expand business horizons. The Tesla-is-going-to-save-the-world nonsense has been out of control for a while now. Maybe some of the engineers at Tesla have different political leanings, but honestly who cares? Just churn out those cars and get gas guzzlers off the road! 

Disclosure: I own a fair amount of Tesla stock.

Musk spent years being a conservative boogeyman for wanting to build electric cars. Now he's the keeper of the faith. Twitter and Tesla stock are a mess right now because of this noise that has nothing to do with the performance of either company.

JenniferW

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #973 on: May 19, 2022, 09:40:36 PM »
I don't think that he said that the voters are divisive and hateful, but I could be wrong.
There are more people registered in this country as democrat than republican; about 31% democrats, 30% republican and the rest indedependent if I recall -- and there is never an independent president who gets elected -- it's always DEM or GOP.  People registered with the party are considered members of the democratic party.  When he insults the democratic party his insulting 31% of all voters and over half of the country who voted for a democratic president -- Biden handedly beat Trump in popular vote.  To call democrats divisive is a complete joke; I've never seen a GOP president so divisive as Trump was trying to steal an election and inciting an insurrection.  Even Mitch McConnell, the GOPs most powerful republican in office currently, said on Jan 19, 2021 in a speech that Trump incited an insurrection on the nation's capital.  And yet he still has a grip on the GOP, with Ted Cruz recently even making a joke about candidates getting Trump tattooed on their butts.

In the 2020 election, 51.3% of all voters voted for Biden (democrat) compared to 46.9% for Trump.  So that's where I got the "half" number but you are correct there are many independents who voted for Biden as well.   But regardless, insulting 31% of the voters who are registered democrat, who are part of the democratic party, is a bad move for a CEO of a big company.  Warren Buffet warned about such tribalism in his last meeting in Omaha a couple weeks back. Warren keeps politics out of business, and he's smart for doing so.  I think Elon's statements will hurt the company.  And now he's been recently booted out of the S&P 500 ESG.  He's unstable and mean.  I don't like him anymore.  I used to like the guy. 

(Btw, my BF is independent, but he always votes democrat and he found it very offensive what Elon said.)
« Last Edit: May 19, 2022, 09:51:37 PM by JenniferW »

Wolfpack Mustachian

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #974 on: May 20, 2022, 04:17:31 AM »
Sigh.  I didn't think Elon Musk would announce he's a Libertarian (who are Republican), but I guess that proves my prior analysis right.

Elon Musk's brother says he's a genius at business, but empathy isn't his strong suit.  Now he will definitely be acceptable to rural America... but what an odd choice for a tweet... Oh, no.  I hope declaring one's politics isn't a prelude to getting more active in politics.

Libertarians believe in drugs and abortion. How many are really left in the GOP? NYT: The Elusive Politics of Elon Musk.

All the same, declaring yourself a Republican to sell your electric cars seems like a poor strategy.

I don't see a lot of conservative anger against drugs anymore. "Socially" Libertarians have the single strong issue in both parties - pro-abortion for Democrats, pro-guns for Republicans.

AdrianC

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #975 on: May 20, 2022, 05:42:04 AM »
I'd have to say Tesla isn't a good investment now.  Elon Musk is alienating 1/2 of the country with his very recent tweets.  I used to really like him and thought it would be cool to own a Tesla. I no longer feel that way and probably wouldn't want to ride in one as a guest passenger.   He's been really unstable lately.

He tweeted this yesterday (May 18, 2022) :



So, has the dirty tricks campaign started?

Methinks he knew what was coming when he posted that tweet.

Of course, sexual harassment isn't an issue for republican voters.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #976 on: May 20, 2022, 07:31:32 AM »
I think he's just finally being honest. Also being a car company CEO. I've never thought that he was a liberal, he's just making a buck trying to change car manufacturing (and batteries). It'd be like thinking Henry Ford was a liberal because he was making cars cheap and wanted to help the "little guy". No, he just figured out there's only so many millionaires to profit from, so he needed to expand business horizons. The Tesla-is-going-to-save-the-world nonsense has been out of control for a while now. Maybe some of the engineers at Tesla have different political leanings, but honestly who cares? Just churn out those cars and get gas guzzlers off the road! 

Disclosure: I own a fair amount of Tesla stock.

Musk spent years being a conservative boogeyman for wanting to build electric cars. Now he's the keeper of the faith. Twitter and Tesla stock are a mess right now because of this noise that has nothing to do with the performance of either company.

Many people think Musk started Tesla, and that's not true. He was an early venture capitalist who put money into the company in exchange for equity. Since then, his primary business talent has been convincing other people to invest in very expensive and unprofitable companies. The engineering, the aesthetic design, the financial planning, and probably the strategy has all been done by other people working at Tesla. Musk's role has been to go out, get attention, and raise money - and he's done a phenomenal job of that considering Tesla's valuation vs. the entire world's auto industry. Maintaining a six-figure PE ratio for a capital-intensive, heavy industry manufacturer is quite the feat and is probably not something seen since the 19th century railroad bubbles.

Perhaps Musk's right wing pivot is the psychological effect of being a billionaire with tens of millions of worshipful fanboys, Twitter followers, and the media constantly talking about him, essentially training him to become a narcissist in the mold of Trump. The experience no doubt changes a person. Musk's stated goals have shifted from getting rich (PayPal era) to saving humanity (Tesla and SpaceX era) to making Twitter un-moderated like 4-chan, 8-chan, Parlor, Telegram, and a dozen other companies, ostensibly to save freedom of speech. These changes reflect Musk's changing arc of meaning, going from selfishness to heroism and then finally to the combination of those features - narcissism. Musk is also the uber-generation-Xer in the sense that he distrusts and wants to dismantle existing institutions like banking, currencies, various industries, social media platforms, and eventually governments.

This urge to innovatively disrupt institutions now clashes with the vision of the Democratic party, which seeks to preserve certain old institutions such as unions, anti-monopoly regulation, and the United States' traditional form of government. Democrats applauded Musk when he was disrupting Wall Street banks and the fossil fuel industry, but now his disruption is encroaching on things they hold dear. Even more terrifying to them is Musk's proven talent, not at building better things per se, which would limit his effect to the change he alone could accomplish, but in convincing other people to buy into memes of innovative disruption. What happens when such a person buys themselves a platform like Twitter?


Paper Chaser

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #977 on: May 20, 2022, 08:04:39 AM »
People considering a $50k-150k purchase being swayed by the CEO's politics care too much about what others think, rather than what the product is and how it will fit their life.

As for Musk, he's never really fit the mold of a traditional Democrat, even though plenty of his most ardent supporters seemed to think that because he wants to sell lots of EVs, he was just like them. It's peak tribalism, where people blindly assume that because a person shares one of their views (in this case Pro EV), they share all of them. The reality is that musk was born a pretty wealthy white man. He's anti-union, anti-regulation, and anti-government (unless they're going to subsidize his business). He's relentlessly demanding of his employees, his business has shown little motivation to prioritize employee or customer safety, and he moves to wherever the tax situation benefits him the most. He was briefly even part of two of Trump's advisory councils until Trump backed the US out of the Paris Climate Accord (hurting Musk's business prospects). For all of these reasons, the current leaders of the Democratic party have avoided talking about Tesla at all until recently, instead choosing to promote the other American EV makers that have a bunch of union workers.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #978 on: May 20, 2022, 08:24:39 AM »
A lot of people are born into wealthy families without becoming the richest man in the world.

For decades before Tesla, every single electric car company failed.  For Elon Musk to try with Tesla was a fool's errand - and the first success for electric car companies.  He wasn't a co-founder of Tesla, but he was Tesla's first CEO.  But to even have a successful company was very long odds - to reach the top of the S&P 500 and threaten all conventional car makers is well beyond just luck.

As to Twitter, someone corrected me in another thread over his motivation.  Christian satire website Babylon Bee was banned from Twitter over a piece of satire, and apparently Elon Musk even asked Twitter about this specific ban.  His original motivation seems to be not to unleash the dark web on Twitter, but rather to allow anyone to speak on Twitter, even if their jokes offend Twitter's censors.

JohnnyZ

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #979 on: May 20, 2022, 08:53:52 AM »
The guy is saying more than half of the country are divisive and hateful.  I noticed he pinned the tweet this morning, then he removed the pin since then -- just checked his twitter feed.   He also said Trump should be allowed back on the platform -- he was banned because he incited an insurrection on our nation's capital!

All that may be true but I don't think that addresses his point; probably only the most hardcore democrats would refrain from buying a Tesla although they really want one just because he wants to allow Trump on twitter.
 If I really wanted a Tesla and could afford it, I'd buy it and wouldn't care at all what the CEO's politics are. It's a purchase, not a campaign donation.

JenniferW

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #980 on: May 20, 2022, 09:09:01 AM »
The guy is saying more than half of the country are divisive and hateful.  I noticed he pinned the tweet this morning, then he removed the pin since then -- just checked his twitter feed.   He also said Trump should be allowed back on the platform -- he was banned because he incited an insurrection on our nation's capital!

All that may be true but I don't think that addresses his point; probably only the most hardcore democrats would refrain from buying a Tesla although they really want one just because he wants to allow Trump on twitter.
 If I really wanted a Tesla and could afford it, I'd buy it and wouldn't care at all what the CEO's politics are. It's a purchase, not a campaign donation.

I just wanted to make sure people here in this thread are aware of what Elon is doing before investing. I understand you disagree, but I do think his behavior is damaging to the company.  Warren Buffet says politics should be left out of the business.. I agree with him.

I do think Biden should of mentioned Tesla when mentioning EV tech, instead of just Ford and GM.. this probably triggered Elon's recent anti-democrat behavior a bit perhaps; Tesla is clearly the leader in EV and one of the most valuable companies in the USA by market cap -- although the market cap is almost half of what it was a few months ago.

Personally I think the current market cap of $685B is too high still if you ask me.  The P/E ratio is a whopping 89 yet they only produced what 100k cars last year?  There's going to be a lot of competition in the coming years as Ford, GM etc. catches up.

EDIT: Dang TSLA dropped down to -10.58% today, so far. It's at -9.5% now.
« Last Edit: May 20, 2022, 09:02:42 PM by JenniferW »

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #981 on: May 20, 2022, 11:16:50 AM »
His original motivation seems to be not to unleash the dark web on Twitter, but rather to allow anyone to speak on Twitter, even if their jokes offend Twitter's censors.

He is a businessman first and foremost. His original motivation was almost certainly neither philosophical or philanthropic.

He is also far from being the first or most poignant in criticism of twitter, nor clear in how he would "fix" it. It only takes a bit of understanding that it's not just bots that are the issue, it the entire framework of the attention economy, the algorithms that by their nature encourage outrage. There is no way to fix this without killing the addictiveness (and therefore value) of the service. It's a fools errand. This is something that needs to be regulated from the outside, with people who are not shareholders making decisions.
« Last Edit: May 20, 2022, 11:21:13 AM by StashingAway »

achvfi

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #982 on: May 20, 2022, 01:33:08 PM »
"A SpaceX flight attendant said Elon Musk exposed himself and propositioned her for sex, documents show. The company paid $250,000 for her silence.

A flight attendant for SpaceX said Elon Musk asked her to "do more" during a massage, documents show.
The billionaire founder exposed his penis to her and offered to buy her a horse, according to claims in a declaration.
After she reported the incident to SpaceX, Musk's company paid her $250,000 as part of a severance agreement."

https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-paid-250000-to-a-flight-attendant-who-accused-elon-musk-of-sexual-misconduct-2022-5

He says he is buying twitter because he is as 'free speech absolutist'. He is hiding behind NDA after sexually harassing his employees.

PDXTabs

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #983 on: May 20, 2022, 03:28:36 PM »
Given someone is Libertarian, which party should they join?

The Libertarian Party, obviously. While I don't agree with them or vote for them they do in fact have an ideologically consistent platform if you happen to believe in their first principles.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #984 on: May 20, 2022, 08:16:07 PM »
I think he's just finally being honest. Also being a car company CEO. I've never thought that he was a liberal, he's just making a buck trying to change car manufacturing (and batteries). It'd be like thinking Henry Ford was a liberal because he was making cars cheap and wanted to help the "little guy". No, he just figured out there's only so many millionaires to profit from, so he needed to expand business horizons. The Tesla-is-going-to-save-the-world nonsense has been out of control for a while now. Maybe some of the engineers at Tesla have different political leanings, but honestly who cares? Just churn out those cars and get gas guzzlers off the road! 

Disclosure: I own a fair amount of Tesla stock.

Musk spent years being a conservative boogeyman for wanting to build electric cars. Now he's the keeper of the faith. Twitter and Tesla stock are a mess right now because of this noise that has nothing to do with the performance of either company.

It's not like he never tried to manipulate stock prices with his antics before....

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #985 on: May 20, 2022, 08:46:20 PM »
People considering a $50k-150k purchase being swayed by the CEO's politics care too much about what others think, rather than what the product is and how it will fit their life.

sure. for some people it may function as simply as that.

others may take a different pov.

seems the market may think a potential backlash to the company exist around this.

Travis

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #986 on: May 20, 2022, 10:50:12 PM »
I think he's just finally being honest. Also being a car company CEO. I've never thought that he was a liberal, he's just making a buck trying to change car manufacturing (and batteries). It'd be like thinking Henry Ford was a liberal because he was making cars cheap and wanted to help the "little guy". No, he just figured out there's only so many millionaires to profit from, so he needed to expand business horizons. The Tesla-is-going-to-save-the-world nonsense has been out of control for a while now. Maybe some of the engineers at Tesla have different political leanings, but honestly who cares? Just churn out those cars and get gas guzzlers off the road! 

Disclosure: I own a fair amount of Tesla stock.

Musk spent years being a conservative boogeyman for wanting to build electric cars. Now he's the keeper of the faith. Twitter and Tesla stock are a mess right now because of this noise that has nothing to do with the performance of either company.

It's not like he never tried to manipulate stock prices with his antics before....

Which is ironic because his "will I/won't I" caused both companies to tank in stock price this month.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #987 on: May 21, 2022, 07:11:40 AM »
People considering a $50k-150k purchase being swayed by the CEO's politics care too much about what others think, rather than what the product is and how it will fit their life.

sure. for some people it may function as simply as that.

others may take a different pov.

seems the market may think a potential backlash to the company exist around this.

If any percentage of the recent price drop is the market "pricing in" people making or not making purchase decisions based on the CEO's politics, then the same is true for previous times when the market was pricing in people wanting or not wanting Teslas because they thought differently about Musk's politics.

I'm not personally sure what percentage of the current drop might be from potential backlash/reduced demand vs Musk seemingly being distracted from the core business and acting in a generally unstable manner in a time where there's more and more viable competition. Markets hate instability and increasing competition. TSLA was punished similarly when Musk started going heavy into crypto too, and I don't think too many people were basing purchase decisions off of that, so I contend that the recent drop has more to do with Elon's distractions and instability than misconceptions about his politics.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #988 on: May 21, 2022, 09:09:50 AM »
People considering a $50k-150k purchase being swayed by the CEO's politics care too much about what others think, rather than what the product is and how it will fit their life.

sure. for some people it may function as simply as that.

others may take a different pov.

seems the market may think a potential backlash to the company exist around this.

If any percentage of the recent price drop is the market "pricing in" people making or not making purchase decisions based on the CEO's politics, then the same is true for previous times when the market was pricing in people wanting or not wanting Teslas because they thought differently about Musk's politics.



If you assume that people assumed musk was far left based on being CEO of tesla, and if you further assume that the appetite to buy an all electric does not differentiate across the political spectrum, sure.


theoverlook

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #989 on: May 23, 2022, 08:17:00 AM »
He knew the flight attendant story was going to hit the news cycle, so he dropped the "I'm switching political parties" BS as a cover story. The Democrats didn't time travel back 4 years and make him wag his junk at someone. He just figured he could get ahead of the public release of that info and try to salvage his reputation.

As a claimed free speech absolutist, he should be happy that there's more speech out there about it.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #990 on: May 23, 2022, 09:51:29 AM »
Given someone is Libertarian, which party should they join?
The Libertarian Party, obviously. While I don't agree with them or vote for them they do in fact have an ideologically consistent platform if you happen to believe in their first principles.
I believe Rand Paul is considered Libertarian, but he's a member of the Republican party.  It seems like most people just pick a major party.  In a "winner take all" voting system like the U.S. uses, votes for smaller parties are generally wasted.  (I know "ranked choice" is used in Europe, but I don't know how pervasive it is).

It appears no Libertarian was elected to Congress before 2020.
https://reason.com/2020/04/29/justin-amash-becomes-the-first-libertarian-member-of-congress/

Of relevance to Mr Musk, Libertarians believe abortion is none of the government's business.  That might help reduce the spotlight on him.

PDXTabs

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #991 on: May 23, 2022, 10:13:09 AM »
Given someone is Libertarian, which party should they join?
The Libertarian Party, obviously. While I don't agree with them or vote for them they do in fact have an ideologically consistent platform if you happen to believe in their first principles.
I believe Rand Paul is considered Libertarian, but he's a member of the Republican party.  It seems like most people just pick a major party.  In a "winner take all" voting system like the U.S. uses, votes for smaller parties are generally wasted.  (I know "ranked choice" is used in Europe, but I don't know how pervasive it is).

It appears no Libertarian was elected to Congress before 2020.
https://reason.com/2020/04/29/justin-amash-becomes-the-first-libertarian-member-of-congress/

Of relevance to Mr Musk, Libertarians believe abortion is none of the government's business.  That might help reduce the spotlight on him.

Abortion, drugs, gay rights, keeping the government out of the bedroom, etc. Very different than the Texas GOP. Completely inline with stock sales priced at 420.69 which is probably why Musk likes them.

As for third parties in the USA, I'm not sure why it is so hard here. The UK also uses a "first over the post" not ranked choice voting system and has more than two parties. Some scholars have written about collusion between the Democrats and Republicans to keep it this way. But perhaps we will see a situation where the GOP in Texas looks very different than the GOP in Alaska, I don't know.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #992 on: May 23, 2022, 10:58:41 AM »
Given someone is Libertarian, which party should they join?
The Libertarian Party, obviously. While I don't agree with them or vote for them they do in fact have an ideologically consistent platform if you happen to believe in their first principles.
I believe Rand Paul is considered Libertarian, but he's a member of the Republican party.  It seems like most people just pick a major party.  In a "winner take all" voting system like the U.S. uses, votes for smaller parties are generally wasted.  (I know "ranked choice" is used in Europe, but I don't know how pervasive it is).

It appears no Libertarian was elected to Congress before 2020.
https://reason.com/2020/04/29/justin-amash-becomes-the-first-libertarian-member-of-congress/

Of relevance to Mr Musk, Libertarians believe abortion is none of the government's business.  That might help reduce the spotlight on him.

Abortion, drugs, gay rights, keeping the government out of the bedroom, etc. Very different than the Texas GOP. Completely inline with stock sales priced at 420.69 which is probably why Musk likes them.

As for third parties in the USA, I'm not sure why it is so hard here. The UK also uses a "first over the post" not ranked choice voting system and has more than two parties. Some scholars have written about collusion between the Democrats and Republicans to keep it this way. But perhaps we will see a situation where the GOP in Texas looks very different than the GOP in Alaska, I don't know.
One reason it's so hard here is because Americans have this notion that if they vote for someone who has almost no chance of winning, they are "throwing away" their vote, even if that candidate more closely represents their values.

Of course, nothing could be further from the truth. People voting third party are sending a stronger signal than the people voting D or R. You know what would make the Republican party less authoritarian? Losing a significant number of votes to the Libertarians, that's what. You know what would make the Democrats prioritize climate change? Losing a significant number of votes to the Greens, that's what. The big political parties are spending hundreds, even thousands of dollars per vote, especially in swing states. So when they see anyone vote third party despite all that spending, it sends a signal. I would argue that 100 third-party votes matter to policy more than 1,000 mainstream party votes.

The second reason third parties don't take off is because if they get any traction, the mainstream parties co-opt their policies. When the Libertarians get on the ballot, for example, the Republicans start talking more about guns or taxes and the Democrats start talking more about bodily autonomy or police reform. In that sense, the smaller parties could ideally serve as systems to steer the mainstream parties, but as noted not enough people will vote to support their own values because they might "lose". Thus, we have parties that don't represent most voters (because the voters send them false signals) and low election turnout.

Consider that when the candidate you voted for wins, you do not necessarily win anything. You might even have lost if you submitted a false representation of your own will to the political economy.

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #993 on: May 26, 2022, 05:24:55 PM »
Many people think Musk started Tesla, and that's not true. He was an early venture capitalist who put money into the company in exchange for equity. Since then, his primary business talent has been convincing other people to invest in very expensive and unprofitable companies. The engineering, the aesthetic design, the financial planning, and probably the strategy has all been done by other people working at Tesla. Musk's role has been to go out, get attention, and raise money - and he's done a phenomenal job of that considering Tesla's valuation vs. the entire world's auto industry. Maintaining a six-figure PE ratio for a capital-intensive, heavy industry manufacturer is quite the feat and is probably not something seen since the 19th century railroad bubbles.

Mmmm. That's pretty misleading. Before Tesla, Musk successfully started and then sold off Zip2 and X.com (which became PayPal) with the help of Kimbal.

As for Tesla, Eberhard and Tarpenning had incorporated about 6 months before Musk became involved - but they were basically at the "kitchen table" level - they didn't even have a written business plan. Musk paid for the entire first funding round of Tesla with his PayPal earnings and got them on the road to being an actual company. Eberhard almost destroyed the company as CEO by lying to the board and investors literally for years about progress on the Roadster until his lies were discovered and he was ousted.

That said, Elon has never been completely stable and lately seems to have gone off the deep end drinking the GQP conspiracy kool-aid

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #994 on: May 26, 2022, 05:26:44 PM »
I believe Rand Paul is considered Libertarian, but he's a member of the Republican party. 

Rand Paul is a fully-paid-for shill for Russia.

PDXTabs

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #995 on: May 26, 2022, 05:48:04 PM »
Eberhard almost destroyed the company as CEO by lying to the board and investors literally for years about progress on the Roadster until his lies were discovered and he was ousted.

So how long until Musk gets kicked out for lying to investors? YouTube: all the times that Musk said self driving was right around the corner.

ChpBstrd

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soulpatchmike

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #997 on: May 31, 2022, 08:19:19 AM »
Don't breathe too deeply around here, the gaslighting is strong among us...

Set the kool-aid down and think freely people.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #998 on: June 01, 2022, 10:16:45 PM »
Even if all of those assumptions hold up, none of the renders that I've seen show a sleeper cab, so where does the driver get to rest if they're not returning to a central depot?
The driver could lower their clock cycle speed, or maybe go into low power mode...

Given Tesla's advances in autonomous driving, I expect they will aim for autonomous long haul trucking.  In that approach, they need a way for a human driver to take over outside the city limits, and then drive the truck from there to its destination.  But the long hours of cross country driving would be done by a computer chip, which could run the truck 24 hours a day.

If markets haven't figured this part out, that could be nice point in Tesla's favor.  Tesla is not only working on autonomous driving, they're known for it.  That can give them a big boost in a new & uncertain market like autonomous long-haul trucking.


PDXTabs - If Tesla gets self-driving first, do their prior schedule mistakes matter?  I think Tesla gets there first, especially with the simpler task of driving between cities.  If their schedule problems put them behind an existing leader, that would be different.
« Last Edit: June 01, 2022, 10:20:41 PM by MustacheAndaHalf »

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #999 on: June 03, 2022, 05:47:20 AM »

PDXTabs - If Tesla gets self-driving first, do their prior schedule mistakes matter?  I think Tesla gets there first, especially with the simpler task of driving between cities.  If their schedule problems put them behind an existing leader, that would be different.

There is also the question of whether or not it happens at all. Its been a year out for... 7 years now? And predicted for the last 80 years. It looks like they're close to me, but I don't feel like I have the knowledge to judge how close we are