Author Topic: Is Tesla a good investment?  (Read 113656 times)

StashingAway

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 616
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #600 on: February 11, 2021, 01:28:25 PM »

Tesla pushed all of these cars into this space. I think they obviously have the best electric cars on the market. But I suspect that it will be easier for companies like GM and Toyota to move into this space than it will for Tesla to prove out their production capabilities. That's a suspicion; Tesla does have a head start, but I think that it's easy to underestimate how quickly a company can change if they put their whole weight behind a transition. For instance, BattleBorn used to be the only reasonably priced Lithium battery in the retail market. They have a 5 year head start, and still make arguably the best product. But there is now heavy competition that makes them on in a sea of options. The folks who are optimistic about Tesla should apply that optimism to Ford or Nissan too.


Exactly, thatís why Iím sitting here reading this thread on my Blackberry smartphone, watching movies on Blockbuster on demand streaming, taking pictures with my Kodak digital camera, and ordering packages online from K-Mart. Incumbents are notorious for having blind spots when it comes to disruption. Corporate culture and knowledge base is very hard to change. Sacrificing short-term profit for long-term transformation even harder. Some of the automotive incumbents will inevitably survive (Ford, VW, BMW, Toyota), but many will not (GM, FIAT/Chrysler). I wonít list out all the reasons why again, you can dig back through my posts on this thread if you care to. Suffice to save, people have been sayingthe challengers will easily catch-up to Tesla for years, and the gap has only grown.

You are being very defensive. I don't have the energy or ability to type book long responses to your Gish Gallop of information. This might be hard to believe, but I could state your position in a way that you would agree with. I've been there, I understand the arguments. I get that Sears was in a position to be Amazon before Amazon was. None of this is new to me, and you aren't dropping any bombshells.

Do you think that Toyota knows less about running quality production on vehicle assembly than Tesla? Do you think the "move fast and break things" mindset of silicone valley will play out well on products and reputations that take decades to establish?

The bolded statement has been taken for truth, but there some current thinking that it is may be a poor model to use for projecting success. Basically, it's riddled with cognitive biases that are impossible to overcome, so it is effectively useless in anything but hindsight.


StashingAway

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 616
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #601 on: February 11, 2021, 01:34:39 PM »
So, how does Tesla make money on insurance? Simple, if Tesla vehicles, operating on autopilot reduce accidents by 50-90% then insurance rates go down. Since Tesla vehicles log all miles driven by Tesla vehicles, Tesla Insurance can tailor rates based on human driving behavior (i.e., rapid acceleration, hard breaking, etc.). Lastly, each Tesla vehicle has 8 external cameras. Any accident will have video evidence of who was at fault. This will greatly reduce the number of no fault, hit and run, and vandalism payouts by Tesla Insurance. Again, reducing rates for customers and profitability for Tesla Insurance.

How on earth do you think Tesla will be more capable at heuristics than ACTUAL insurance companies? Once other insurance companies have the data points, they will be able to accurately price in how much it costs to insure a Tesla. How do you think other insurance companies work? If Allstate uses crash records from the last 5 years and find that Teslas are cheaper to insure, they will offer a lower rate. Tesla can offer zero benefit here, with the exception that they might have more confidence in their vehicles before the data points play out on the streets. But real world data will quickly catch up and make that point moot (and perhaps Tesla might be overconfident and lose money on the deal)

I haven't seen a reason yet why Tesla insurance would be better that Allstate in the long run.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2021, 01:36:27 PM by StashingAway »

ColoradoTribe

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 182
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #602 on: February 11, 2021, 01:44:36 PM »
So, how does Tesla make money on insurance? Simple, if Tesla vehicles, operating on autopilot reduce accidents by 50-90% then insurance rates go down. Since Tesla vehicles log all miles driven by Tesla vehicles, Tesla Insurance can tailor rates based on human driving behavior (i.e., rapid acceleration, hard breaking, etc.). Lastly, each Tesla vehicle has 8 external cameras. Any accident will have video evidence of who was at fault. This will greatly reduce the number of no fault, hit and run, and vandalism payouts by Tesla Insurance. Again, reducing rates for customers and profitability for Tesla Insurance.

How on earth do you think Tesla will be more capable at heuristics than ACTUAL insurance companies? Once other insurance companies have the data points, they will be able to accurately price in how much it costs to insure a Tesla. How do you think other insurance companies work? If Allstate uses crash records from the last 5 years and find that Teslas are cheaper to insure, they will offer a lower rate. Tesla can offer zero benefit here, with the exception that they might have more confidence in their vehicles before the data points play out on the streets. But real world data will quickly catch up and make that point moot (and perhaps Tesla might be overconfident and lose money on the deal)

I haven't seen a reason yet why Tesla insurance would be better that Allstate in the long run.

I wonít accuse you of being defensive for responding with your opinion. Other insurance companies will not have access to Teslaís database of user mileage (billions of miles) that Tesla has been collecting to hone their FSD. That will be unique to Tesla Insurance when setting rates for Tesla drivers. Iíd also argue Tesla customers are fiercely loyal and are very likely to take the Tesla Insurance when offered in their state over any competitor. Tesla produces the safest cars on the road, so insuring a fleet of Tesla vehicles will inherently be cheaper than insuring a cross-section of random ICE vehicles without the safety features, exterior cameras, FSD capabilities, etc.

tarheeldan

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 874
  • Location: Plano, TX
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #603 on: February 11, 2021, 01:57:15 PM »
Also Tesla's autonomous fleet will be its own biggest customer

ColoradoTribe

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 182
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #604 on: February 11, 2021, 02:15:28 PM »

Tesla pushed all of these cars into this space. I think they obviously have the best electric cars on the market. But I suspect that it will be easier for companies like GM and Toyota to move into this space than it will for Tesla to prove out their production capabilities. That's a suspicion; Tesla does have a head start, but I think that it's easy to underestimate how quickly a company can change if they put their whole weight behind a transition. For instance, BattleBorn used to be the only reasonably priced Lithium battery in the retail market. They have a 5 year head start, and still make arguably the best product. But there is now heavy competition that makes them on in a sea of options. The folks who are optimistic about Tesla should apply that optimism to Ford or Nissan too.


Exactly, thatís why Iím sitting here reading this thread on my Blackberry smartphone, watching movies on Blockbuster on demand streaming, taking pictures with my Kodak digital camera, and ordering packages online from K-Mart. Incumbents are notorious for having blind spots when it comes to disruption. Corporate culture and knowledge base is very hard to change. Sacrificing short-term profit for long-term transformation even harder. Some of the automotive incumbents will inevitably survive (Ford, VW, BMW, Toyota), but many will not (GM, FIAT/Chrysler). I wonít list out all the reasons why again, you can dig back through my posts on this thread if you care to. Suffice to save, people have been sayingthe challengers will easily catch-up to Tesla for years, and the gap has only grown.

You are being very defensive. I don't have the energy or ability to type book long responses to your Gish Gallop of information. This might be hard to believe, but I could state your position in a way that you would agree with. I've been there, I understand the arguments. I get that Sears was in a position to be Amazon before Amazon was. None of this is new to me, and you aren't dropping any bombshells.

Do you think that Toyota knows less about running quality production on vehicle assembly than Tesla? Do you think the "move fast and break things" mindset of silicone valley will play out well on products and reputations that take decades to establish?

The bolded statement has been taken for truth, but there some current thinking that it is may be a poor model to use for projecting success. Basically, it's riddled with cognitive biases that are impossible to overcome, so it is effectively useless in anything but hindsight.

Itís true. Iím not dropping any bombshells and Iíll have to look up Gish Gallop? It is well established and repeated throughout history that the incumbent that is being disrupted rarely sees the future until it's too late. Incumbents by their very nature are not nimble and are entrenched in the current way of doing things the way theyíve always been done. The surprise here is that you believe disruption of the auto industry would be different from nearly every other major technological disruption and this time the incumbents nimbly adapt, survive, and beat the innovator at their own game.

Could GM spend 10s of billions to:

-build out a supercharger network worldwide

-replace their ICE engineers with expertise in software and battery tech

-design and build out their own battery cell manufacturing capacity or secure scarce capacity from a cell provider

-sacrifice short-term quarterly profits and dividends, thus angering share holders in the process

-retrain and retool their entire network of dealerships and repair shops to sell and service EVs while still maintaining service and sales for their existing ICE customers

-cannabilize their own profitable ICE vehicle lines to promote their new generation of EVs. Then convince customers to not go with the dedicated leader in EV tech, which is Tesla.

-retool production to build EVs that have to be designed from the ground up

-find and secure new EV part suppliers (GM is not vertically integrated to the extent Tesla is)

-convince their independently owned dealerships to promote nearly maintenance free EVs over ICE sales when dealers rely heavily on ongoing maintenance and repairs of ICE vehicles for profitability; and

-keep their labor unions happy during all this disruption.[/li][/list]


Sure, its all possible in theory, but Iíd much rather be in Teslaís shoes.

Christof

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 712
  • Age: 45
  • Location: Germany
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #605 on: February 11, 2021, 02:48:16 PM »
That is what VW is trying to do right now, and itĎs a huge bet even for one of the largest car manufacturers on the face of the earth.

lemonlyman

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 228
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #606 on: February 12, 2021, 09:19:16 AM »

Tesla pushed all of these cars into this space. I think they obviously have the best electric cars on the market. But I suspect that it will be easier for companies like GM and Toyota to move into this space than it will for Tesla to prove out their production capabilities. That's a suspicion; Tesla does have a head start, but I think that it's easy to underestimate how quickly a company can change if they put their whole weight behind a transition. For instance, BattleBorn used to be the only reasonably priced Lithium battery in the retail market. They have a 5 year head start, and still make arguably the best product. But there is now heavy competition that makes them on in a sea of options. The folks who are optimistic about Tesla should apply that optimism to Ford or Nissan too.


Exactly, thatís why Iím sitting here reading this thread on my Blackberry smartphone, watching movies on Blockbuster on demand streaming, taking pictures with my Kodak digital camera, and ordering packages online from K-Mart. Incumbents are notorious for having blind spots when it comes to disruption. Corporate culture and knowledge base is very hard to change. Sacrificing short-term profit for long-term transformation even harder. Some of the automotive incumbents will inevitably survive (Ford, VW, BMW, Toyota), but many will not (GM, FIAT/Chrysler). I wonít list out all the reasons why again, you can dig back through my posts on this thread if you care to. Suffice to save, people have been sayingthe challengers will easily catch-up to Tesla for years, and the gap has only grown.

You are being very defensive. I don't have the energy or ability to type book long responses to your Gish Gallop of information. This might be hard to believe, but I could state your position in a way that you would agree with. I've been there, I understand the arguments. I get that Sears was in a position to be Amazon before Amazon was. None of this is new to me, and you aren't dropping any bombshells.

Do you think that Toyota knows less about running quality production on vehicle assembly than Tesla? Do you think the "move fast and break things" mindset of silicone valley will play out well on products and reputations that take decades to establish?

The bolded statement has been taken for truth, but there some current thinking that it is may be a poor model to use for projecting success. Basically, it's riddled with cognitive biases that are impossible to overcome, so it is effectively useless in anything but hindsight.



The Malcolm Gladwell book David and Goliath is about this phenomena. Of course it's not truth. You can find anecdotal evidence in both directions. Despite whatever "current thinking" means, investment relies on a variety of models to project success. You could even turn it around and have the perspective of Tesla being the Goliath because it currently is in electric vehicle sales. But you need some method to make a decision. You're right: Toyota definitely knows how to align body panels on a frame and produce a great ICE and hybrid cars. It seems likely EVs will become dominate consumer products toward the mid and end of this decade for transportation. How useful is the cognitive model that manufacturing and selling an ICE vehicle is the same as an EV? It hasn't been very useful in projecting Tesla's demise so far.

In investing, the only true model is the future is unclear. It's also the most useless.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2021, 09:55:04 AM by lemonlyman »

lemonlyman

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 228
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #607 on: February 12, 2021, 10:16:38 AM »
So, how does Tesla make money on insurance? Simple, if Tesla vehicles, operating on autopilot reduce accidents by 50-90% then insurance rates go down. Since Tesla vehicles log all miles driven by Tesla vehicles, Tesla Insurance can tailor rates based on human driving behavior (i.e., rapid acceleration, hard breaking, etc.). Lastly, each Tesla vehicle has 8 external cameras. Any accident will have video evidence of who was at fault. This will greatly reduce the number of no fault, hit and run, and vandalism payouts by Tesla Insurance. Again, reducing rates for customers and profitability for Tesla Insurance.

How on earth do you think Tesla will be more capable at heuristics than ACTUAL insurance companies? Once other insurance companies have the data points, they will be able to accurately price in how much it costs to insure a Tesla. How do you think other insurance companies work? If Allstate uses crash records from the last 5 years and find that Teslas are cheaper to insure, they will offer a lower rate. Tesla can offer zero benefit here, with the exception that they might have more confidence in their vehicles before the data points play out on the streets. But real world data will quickly catch up and make that point moot (and perhaps Tesla might be overconfident and lose money on the deal)

I haven't seen a reason yet why Tesla insurance would be better that Allstate in the long run.

Because Tesla can get more detailed driving data on its drivers than All State can from any car. Tesla can determine how much a particular person drives on Tuesday and how fast. What routes they use. If a person keeps their tires inflated. Beamed from the car right to their database at any time. How does All State get that kind of data?

I donít know if thatíll make pricing better or not. It will be the first pricing related to behavior in relatively real time though. The goal might be to influence good driving behavior directly through consumer price rather than reducing repair costs.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2021, 10:26:29 AM by lemonlyman »

mistymoney

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 971
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #608 on: February 12, 2021, 11:09:45 AM »
So, how does Tesla make money on insurance? Simple, if Tesla vehicles, operating on autopilot reduce accidents by 50-90% then insurance rates go down. Since Tesla vehicles log all miles driven by Tesla vehicles, Tesla Insurance can tailor rates based on human driving behavior (i.e., rapid acceleration, hard breaking, etc.). Lastly, each Tesla vehicle has 8 external cameras. Any accident will have video evidence of who was at fault. This will greatly reduce the number of no fault, hit and run, and vandalism payouts by Tesla Insurance. Again, reducing rates for customers and profitability for Tesla Insurance.

How on earth do you think Tesla will be more capable at heuristics than ACTUAL insurance companies? Once other insurance companies have the data points, they will be able to accurately price in how much it costs to insure a Tesla. How do you think other insurance companies work? If Allstate uses crash records from the last 5 years and find that Teslas are cheaper to insure, they will offer a lower rate. Tesla can offer zero benefit here, with the exception that they might have more confidence in their vehicles before the data points play out on the streets. But real world data will quickly catch up and make that point moot (and perhaps Tesla might be overconfident and lose money on the deal)

I haven't seen a reason yet why Tesla insurance would be better that Allstate in the long run.

Because Tesla can get more detailed driving data on its drivers than All State can from any car. Tesla can determine how much a particular person drives on Tuesday and how fast. What routes they use. If a person keeps their tires inflated. Beamed from the car right to their database at any time. How does All State get that kind of data?

I donít know if thatíll make pricing better or not. It will be the first pricing related to behavior in relatively real time though. The goal might be to influence good driving behavior directly through consumer price rather than reducing repair costs.

What? I'm a bit outraged here, frankly.

Are you seriously telling me that these 'cars of the future' don't automatically properly inflate all tires to optimal levels every time you turn them on?

ripped off!

ChpBstrd

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3582
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #609 on: February 12, 2021, 11:17:12 AM »
If Teslas are the only significant thing one can buy with Bitcoin for the next few years, that might increase sales of Teslas while at the same time slightly reducing the float of Bitcoins.

I wonder if Musk would like to hold a few tens of billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin in the Tesla treasury, because this would reduce circulation, and that would prop up the price of Bitcoin - his own little short squeeze - and would make profits look amazing while it lasts. He would have to rely on raising more dollar funds to pay expenses until employees and vendors are willing to accept Bitcoin - which means dilution.


You heard it first here!
https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2021/02/12/as-bitcoin-soars-toward-50000-data-reveals-tesla-billionaire-elon-musk-triggered-a-12-billion-bitcoin-price-short-squeeze/?sh=72f519cf219e

StashingAway

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 616
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #610 on: February 16, 2021, 10:00:34 AM »
Because Tesla can get more detailed driving data on its drivers than All State can from any car. Tesla can determine how much a particular person drives on Tuesday and how fast. What routes they use. If a person keeps their tires inflated. Beamed from the car right to their database at any time. How does All State get that kind of data?

I donít know if thatíll make pricing better or not. It will be the first pricing related to behavior in relatively real time though. The goal might be to influence good driving behavior directly through consumer price rather than reducing repair costs.

Yeah this is wrong. There are already insurance companies doing this. Or near enough to not make a difference. It's not a very popular insurance method, yet.

https://www.wired.com/2016/11/car-insurance-pricing-broken-phone-fix/

How does All State get that kind of data?

It's called Drivewise.
https://www.allstate.com/drive-wise.aspx\

In State Farm it's called Drive Safe. Progressive calls it Snapshot. SmartRide from Nationwide. Etc.

The issue is that Tesla is a tech company with poor customer service who is having trouble getting body panels to line up on a luxury sedan and you are saying that they are increasing their value by adding Insurance to their portfolio. I am suggesting that they are already in over their head and need to make sure that their 15inch screen that has the only controls for the car can last longer than 5 years (which they haven't).

The point isn't that they are ahead of the game on electric cars, it's that early adopters are usually incredibly forgiving for production mishaps, but that's a poor predictor of how well this will all play out. Perhaps Tesla is like blackberry, where they appear to be market dominant and have all of the production in the right places, but perhaps they aren't the most valuable car company in the world. We will find out.

I really do hope they iron out the issues. They seem to be treating cars like throwaway appliances, replaceable in a few years by a newer version, which in my opinion isn't a good use of resources.

StashingAway

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 616
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #611 on: February 16, 2021, 10:17:56 AM »
    Could GM spend 10s of billions to:

    -build out a supercharger network worldwide

    -replace their ICE engineers with expertise in software and battery tech

    -design and build out their own battery cell manufacturing capacity or secure scarce capacity from a cell provider

    -sacrifice short-term quarterly profits and dividends, thus angering share holders in the process

    -retrain and retool their entire network of dealerships and repair shops to sell and service EVs while still maintaining service and sales for their existing ICE customers

    -cannabilize their own profitable ICE vehicle lines to promote their new generation of EVs. Then convince customers to not go with the dedicated leader in EV tech, which is Tesla.

    -retool production to build EVs that have to be designed from the ground up

    -find and secure new EV part suppliers (GM is not vertically integrated to the extent Tesla is)

    -convince their independently owned dealerships to promote nearly maintenance free EVs over ICE sales when dealers rely heavily on ongoing maintenance and repairs of ICE vehicles for profitability; and

    -keep their labor unions happy during all this disruption.[/li][/list]


    Sure, its all possible in theory, but Iíd much rather be in Teslaís shoes.

    I don't see why not. Weirder things have happened.

    One of my favorite things about Tesla is their direct to customer sales. But I am seeing that trend being pushed into the other manufacturers. I appreciate that Tesla did this, but it doesn't mean that they're the only ones who can.

    I am cautiously optimistic about them, but the religious devotion makes me cringe. And I want to apply that same optimism to other brands. There are tons of smart engineers at Ford and Chevy and Toyota who would probably love to convert time and energy to EVs. Many smart people work at other companies and they didn't up and move their families to the draining work schedule in an expensive city (San Fran). Just because Tesla can draw upon hard working young devoted engineers doesn't mean they have a monopoly on innovation. I personally would rather live and work at Toyota in Plano, Texas than Tesla in San Fran (I'm not joking).

    StashingAway

    • Pencil Stache
    • ****
    • Posts: 616
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #612 on: February 16, 2021, 10:27:24 AM »
    I wonít accuse you of being defensive for responding with your opinion.

    Fair enough. I was not having a great day and perhaps should not have been posting online. I appreciate you not escalating it.

    Tesla produces the safest cars on the road, so insuring a fleet of Tesla vehicles will inherently be cheaper than insuring a cross-section of random ICE vehicles without the safety features, exterior cameras, FSD capabilities, etc.

    Presumably, Teslas will be cheaper to insure across all insurance platforms because of this. Tesla won't have some kind of magically lower risk based on who the insurer is. And just because they are cheaper on the insured's side doesn't mean they are cheaper for the insurer. Those are independent of each other.

    The thing is, there may be upside to Tesla insurance, but it doesn't account for any of the potential downsides when valuating it. There are ways to lose money on insurance. There are ways to lose customers with poor service. There are laws and regulations in the industry regarding paying out settlements that Tesla will have to adapt to. They will have to staff another division (not related to vehicles or electric at all). Mr. Musk will have to devote a small amount of time making decisions about insurance that he could otherwise spend on making better rockets. I am just giving examples; maybe none of this will happen. But there is an opportunity cost here and companies have definitely failed by spreading themselves too thin.
    « Last Edit: February 16, 2021, 10:30:51 AM by StashingAway »

    ColoradoTribe

    • Stubble
    • **
    • Posts: 182
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #613 on: February 16, 2021, 12:06:49 PM »
    Because Tesla can get more detailed driving data on its drivers than All State can from any car. Tesla can determine how much a particular person drives on Tuesday and how fast. What routes they use. If a person keeps their tires inflated. Beamed from the car right to their database at any time. How does All State get that kind of data?

    I donít know if thatíll make pricing better or not. It will be the first pricing related to behavior in relatively real time though. The goal might be to influence good driving behavior directly through consumer price rather than reducing repair costs.

    Yeah this is wrong. There are already insurance companies doing this. Or near enough to not make a difference. It's not a very popular insurance method, yet.

    https://www.wired.com/2016/11/car-insurance-pricing-broken-phone-fix/

    How does All State get that kind of data?

    It's called Drivewise.
    https://www.allstate.com/drive-wise.aspx\

    In State Farm it's called Drive Safe. Progressive calls it Snapshot. SmartRide from Nationwide. Etc.

    The issue is that Tesla is a tech company with poor customer service who is having trouble getting body panels to line up on a luxury sedan and you are saying that they are increasing their value by adding Insurance to their portfolio. I am suggesting that they are already in over their head and need to make sure that their 15inch screen that has the only controls for the car can last longer than 5 years (which they haven't).

    The point isn't that they are ahead of the game on electric cars, it's that early adopters are usually incredibly forgiving for production mishaps, but that's a poor predictor of how well this will all play out. Perhaps Tesla is like blackberry, where they appear to be market dominant and have all of the production in the right places, but perhaps they aren't the most valuable car company in the world. We will find out.

    I really do hope they iron out the issues. They seem to be treating cars like throwaway appliances, replaceable in a few years by a newer version, which in my opinion isn't a good use of resources.

    Critics often focus on panel gaps. These are an issue in some of Tesla vehicles, no argument there. If owners notice panel gaps they can get them fixed before taking delivery of the car at no cost. Obviously, having panel gaps is not ideal, but it is not a performance or safety issue, like air bags that kill people or gas tanks that explode upon rear impact. Every manufacturer has recalls, Tesla can and is fixing the touch screen issue on a select number of early production vehicles. This is not even close to VW diesel gate or Takata air bags. I question the objectivity of those who focus on panel gaps while seeming to ignore the bigger picture, which is Tesla is creating some of the highest performing and safest production vehicles on the road. Vehicles that offer a total cost of ownership way below comparable ICE vehicles when you factor in fuel and maintenance savings. Are way better for the environment. Are capable of going 500k or more miles on the original electric drive drain and battery pack, providing more than double the life expectancy of an ICE vehicle. Its silly to say Tesla is making ďthrow awayĒ vehicles given these realities. Panel gaps is the proverbial tree in the big ole forest.

    StashingAway

    • Pencil Stache
    • ****
    • Posts: 616
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #614 on: February 16, 2021, 01:10:50 PM »

    Critics often focus on panel gaps. These are an issue in some of Tesla vehicles, no argument there. If owners notice panel gaps they can get them fixed before taking delivery of the car at no cost. Obviously, having panel gaps is not ideal, but it is not a performance or safety issue, like air bags that kill people or gas tanks that explode upon rear impact. Every manufacturer has recalls, Tesla can and is fixing the touch screen issue on a select number of early production vehicles. This is not even close to VW diesel gate or Takata air bags. I question the objectivity of those who focus on panel gaps while seeming to ignore the bigger picture, which is Tesla is creating some of the highest performing and safest production vehicles on the road. Vehicles that offer a total cost of ownership way below comparable ICE vehicles when you factor in fuel and maintenance savings. Are way better for the environment. Are capable of going 500k or more miles on the original electric drive drain and battery pack, providing more than double the life expectancy of an ICE vehicle. Its silly to say Tesla is making ďthrow awayĒ vehicles given these realities. Panel gaps is the proverbial tree in the big ole forest.

    Panel gaps are a tree in a forest, that's very true. I use them to represent my hesitancy to trust that they can make the rest of the car right. There are countless multiple hour long breakdowns of major issues of Tesla manufacturing. I'm sure you've read or watched them. The panel gaps are a quick reference to the situation as a whole.

    And keep in mind, I'm not necessarily saying that Tesla makes a crap car. I'm saying I wouldn't own one, despite really wanting to. And I wouldn't own one because from what I've seen, they cut corners when manufacturing cars. Maybe they are corners that need to be cut, but I'll let others continue to be the guinea pigs on that one.

    I'm not sure why you brought up Takata air bags; that recall also affected early model Teslas produced during the recall period.

    With this whole conversation, I want to remind that we are not discussing whether or not Tesla is a successful company or likely to fail, we are talking about whether or not Tesla is worth more than Toyota, Nissan, GM, Ford, and Volkswagon combined, which, on the face of it is absurd (to me). Maybe I'm wrong. I don't see it.
    « Last Edit: February 16, 2021, 01:12:50 PM by StashingAway »

    Kroaler

    • Handlebar Stache
    • *****
    • Posts: 1166
    • Location: Southeast
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #615 on: February 16, 2021, 01:45:45 PM »
    I worked on the floor at another premium auto manufacturing as a robot tech.

    I have also toured the Tesla factory.  They started way behind the other players as far as process and efficiency goes but are incredibly agile. Very ambitious goals. I believe they will soon *if not already* blow by all the competition on manufacturing excellence due to their agile nature and rapid continued improvement.

    But no way their market value is right.

    ColoradoTribe

    • Stubble
    • **
    • Posts: 182
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #616 on: February 17, 2021, 11:03:56 AM »

    Critics often focus on panel gaps. These are an issue in some of Tesla vehicles, no argument there. If owners notice panel gaps they can get them fixed before taking delivery of the car at no cost. Obviously, having panel gaps is not ideal, but it is not a performance or safety issue, like air bags that kill people or gas tanks that explode upon rear impact. Every manufacturer has recalls, Tesla can and is fixing the touch screen issue on a select number of early production vehicles. This is not even close to VW diesel gate or Takata air bags. I question the objectivity of those who focus on panel gaps while seeming to ignore the bigger picture, which is Tesla is creating some of the highest performing and safest production vehicles on the road. Vehicles that offer a total cost of ownership way below comparable ICE vehicles when you factor in fuel and maintenance savings. Are way better for the environment. Are capable of going 500k or more miles on the original electric drive drain and battery pack, providing more than double the life expectancy of an ICE vehicle. Its silly to say Tesla is making ďthrow awayĒ vehicles given these realities. Panel gaps is the proverbial tree in the big ole forest.

    Panel gaps are a tree in a forest, that's very true. I use them to represent my hesitancy to trust that they can make the rest of the car right. There are countless multiple hour long breakdowns of major issues of Tesla manufacturing. I'm sure you've read or watched them. The panel gaps are a quick reference to the situation as a whole.

    And keep in mind, I'm not necessarily saying that Tesla makes a crap car. I'm saying I wouldn't own one, despite really wanting to. And I wouldn't own one because from what I've seen, they cut corners when manufacturing cars. Maybe they are corners that need to be cut, but I'll let others continue to be the guinea pigs on that one.

    I'm not sure why you brought up Takata air bags; that recall also affected early model Teslas produced during the recall period.

    With this whole conversation, I want to remind that we are not discussing whether or not Tesla is a successful company or likely to fail, we are talking about whether or not Tesla is worth more than Toyota, Nissan, GM, Ford, and Volkswagon combined, which, on the face of it is absurd (to me). Maybe I'm wrong. I don't see it.

    So, if panel gaps are a deal breaker, I assume youíll never buy from:

    -Toyota after they had to recall 9.3 million vehicles due to unintended acceleration that killed 89 customers.

    -Ford after tire tread separation and sudden blowouts left 271 dead. Or the 823 rollover deaths resulting from the faulty design of their Bronco. Or the 14 million Ford vehicles recalled to due cruise control deactivation switch fires.

    -Volkswagen after they cooked the books for the diesel vehicle emissions. Of the 300k vehicles recalled due to fuel pump failure that lead to stalls at speed.

    -GM after they recalled 2.6 million vehicles for faulty ignition switches that killed 303 customers.

    -Fiat/Chyrsler after exploding gas tanks during low speed collisions resulted in 478 deaths and the company finally recalled 2.7 million vehicles 15 years after the first deaths!

    Iím pretty sure a panel gap never killed or injured anyone. Teslaís donít have fuel tanks, fuel pumps, ignition switches, or single rollover death that Iím aware. IN fact, all of Teslaís recalls have been for minor issues and not a single death has been attributed to a Tesla recall.

    In 2020, there was a Tesla vehicle fire every 205 million miles. According to the National Fire Protection Association and the U.S. Department of Transportation, there is a vehicle fire once every 19 million miles. But, the panel gaps...

    Tesla holds five star safety ratings on all four of its production vehicles. Teslaís Model Y had the lowest rollover risk of any vehicle ever tested by NHSTA. The Model S, Model X, and Model 3 have all achieved the lowest overall probability of injury of any vehicle ever tested by the U.S. governmentís New Car Assessment program. Sure, but thereís still some vehicles with panel gaps...

    In the 4th quarter of 2020, Tesla vehicles registered one accident for every 3.45 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged. For those driving without Autopilot but with active safety features engaged, vehicles registered one accident for every 2.05 million miles driven. For vehicles driven without Autopilot and without active safety features engaged, vehicles registered one accident for every 1.27 million miles driven. By comparison, NHTSAís most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 484,000 miles. Yeah, but what about the panel gaps!

    Iím not trying to convince you to buy Tesla vehicles or stock. I just find it frustrating that all these existing manufacturers seem to get a pass on quality and safety, despite the documented history of issues, deaths, and cover ups. Yet, you are willing to extrapolate that Teslaís are poorly made or unsafe because some early production vehicles have minor panel gap issues that are easily fixed and not safety related. Ignoring that Teslas have the highest safety and customer satisfaction ratings of any brand and  there has not been a single recall related fatality. You free to assume what you want based on panel gaps, but the weight of the evidence/data suggests its the competition that routinely has safety, design and quality issues, not Tesla.  Every meaningful and objective measure strongly indicates Tesla has exceptional build quality and safety as laid out above.

    Donít take my word for it. Go watch the tear down videoís done by Sandy Munro. Sandy will point out the panel gaps and express his disappointment that they exist, but then go on to rave about the overall build quality and how he could never have gotten Ford/GM to do the things Tesla is doing in their manufacturing process when he worked in Detroit. Heís constantly raving about Teslaís pace of innovation and how quick they are to make improvements to their vehicles from one model year to the next.

    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCj--iMtToRO_cGG_fpmP5XQ

    As for valuation, go look at other recent Tesla threads in this Investor forum, if you like. There are detailed discussions and I and other Tesla investors made our case. Iím not going to rehash it in detail again. Iíll only say, the company that is growing by 40-50% per year should be worth more than the companies with declining sales and soon to be stranded assets and outdated technology.

    StashingAway

    • Pencil Stache
    • ****
    • Posts: 616
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #617 on: February 17, 2021, 12:17:52 PM »
    Quote from: ColoradoTribe link=topic=89600.msg2794318#msg2794318

    wall of text


    It may not sound like it from my posts, but I am a big supporter of Tesla. I NEVER said they weren't safe. I do, in fact, believe they are the safest cars on the road. You would have saved a ton of effort asking me rather than trying to convince me. Had you been reading carefully, you would have noticed my nod to this when I said they'd be cheaper to insure. I CLEARLY stated that the panel gaps were not the main issue. I was just throwing it as a quick reference to my overall perception of things.

    We likely see eye to eye on many things. I am offering alternative viewpoints and feel as though they are not being received in good faith. You appear to have no intention of learning new things if they don't already fit your current agenda. It's a common human defense mechanism to reject those outside of your tribe. It's nearly impossible to override.

    Now, before you get all up on me again, I'm not saying that I am guaranteed to have new info to offer. I'm saying that if I did, you are not in a mindset to receive it (or at least haven't shown to be). How can you expect me to be receptive of your viewpoint if you have no intention of being receptive to mine? I am in defense mode (as are you). How do we break the spell?

    ColoradoTribe

    • Stubble
    • **
    • Posts: 182
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #618 on: February 17, 2021, 01:50:59 PM »
    Quote from: ColoradoTribe link=topic=89600.msg2794318#msg2794318

    wall of text


    It may not sound like it from my posts, but I am a big supporter of Tesla. I NEVER said they weren't safe. I do, in fact, believe they are the safest cars on the road. You would have saved a ton of effort asking me rather than trying to convince me. Had you been reading carefully, you would have noticed my nod to this when I said they'd be cheaper to insure. I CLEARLY stated that the panel gaps were not the main issue. I was just throwing it as a quick reference to my overall perception of things.

    We likely see eye to eye on many things. I am offering alternative viewpoints and feel as though they are not being received in good faith. You appear to have no intention of learning new things if they don't already fit your current agenda. It's a common human defense mechanism to reject those outside of your tribe. It's nearly impossible to override.

    Now, before you get all up on me again, I'm not saying that I am guaranteed to have new info to offer. I'm saying that if I did, you are not in a mindset to receive it (or at least haven't shown to be). How can you expect me to be receptive of your viewpoint if you have no intention of being receptive to mine? I am in defense mode (as are you). How do we break the spell?

    You implied the panel gaps were indicative of larger quality issues. While I agree you never questioned Teslaís safety, Iíd argue safety and build quality are obviously related. If a car is not built well then it will not be safe as evidenced by the list of fatal recalls due to poor build quality or design. My whole point is that outside of the panel gaps themselves all evidence as to the quality and safety of Teslaís vehicles runs counter to your assertion or perception that they are ďdisposableĒ and of poor quality.

    I do apologize for the heavy handedness of my posts. However, Iíve been fighting false claims against Tesla going on 8 years now since I bought my first shares in 2013. The arguments change, the goal posts move, and new critics emerge, but the near constant stream of misinformation continues unabated. I donít sense any malice on your part, though you seem to take this personal, and I feel like Iíve largely stuck with facts and substantive opinions in my posts.

    Anyway we can move along. Its not my intention to argue or debate every post that has something negative to say about Tesla. If all you said was the cars have some finish issues and you think the stock is overvalued I likely would not have responded. It was the extrapolation from panel gaps to your perception or assumption of larger or general quality issues that flew in the face of the available facts. I can ramble and go off on side tracks and while Iím trying to respond to directly to you, I am also trying to inform anyone else reading along on Tesla generally.

    Best- Colorado Tribe

    effigy98

    • Pencil Stache
    • ****
    • Posts: 547
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #619 on: February 17, 2021, 10:48:40 PM »
    TESLA is now a great investment. Having 1.5B of bitcoin on the balance sheet gives them a huge advantage over other companies. They also have a sugar momma named Cathy. Trying to value them based on the cars is not useful at this point. They are an AI (software), energy tax credit, crypto, story driven company.

    talltexan

    • Magnum Stache
    • ******
    • Posts: 4669
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #620 on: February 18, 2021, 07:18:42 AM »
    Is Tesla sufficiently good for the environment that it overcomes the negative environmental impact of the Bitcoin activity it is motivating?

    bacchi

    • Walrus Stache
    • *******
    • Posts: 5938
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #621 on: February 18, 2021, 10:03:42 AM »
    TESLA is now a great investment. Having 1.5B of bitcoin on the balance sheet gives them a huge advantage over other companies. They also have a sugar momma named Cathy. Trying to value them based on the cars is not useful at this point. They are an AI (software), energy tax credit, crypto, story driven company.

    That's good news that they're working on other revenue models. Not only does their car manufacturing make no money without the tax credits, they had to cut their prices today due to EV competition.

    Proud Foot

    • Handlebar Stache
    • *****
    • Posts: 1156
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #622 on: February 18, 2021, 12:11:13 PM »
    TESLA is now a great investment. Having 1.5B of bitcoin on the balance sheet gives them a huge advantage over other companies. They also have a sugar momma named Cathy. Trying to value them based on the cars is not useful at this point. They are an AI (software), energy tax credit, crypto, story driven company.

    This part right here! Around a month ago I saw an article where they announced launching their own solar power inverter. They definitely seem to be an Energy Technology and Software who just happens to package it in a self produced car.

    ChpBstrd

    • Magnum Stache
    • ******
    • Posts: 3582
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #623 on: February 18, 2021, 01:59:09 PM »
    Is Tesla sufficiently good for the environment that it overcomes the negative environmental impact of the Bitcoin activity it is motivating?

    GOOD question. I had always heard saving the environment was Musk's motivation, but this would be a step in the opposite direction, wouldn't it.

    If it is revealed in a few months that Tesla reduced its Bitcoin holdings, we'll know the truth - that Musk was using his celebrity status to raise free money for Tesla and he's not a true believer in crypto.

    If he sticks with it long-term, he has a different motive.

    talltexan

    • Magnum Stache
    • ******
    • Posts: 4669
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #624 on: February 19, 2021, 07:44:41 AM »
    This is what bothers me about Tesla and Crypto:

    https://seekingalpha.com/news/3663925-tesla-and-bitcoin

    lemonlyman

    • Stubble
    • **
    • Posts: 228
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #625 on: February 19, 2021, 09:07:30 AM »
    Because Tesla can get more detailed driving data on its drivers than All State can from any car. Tesla can determine how much a particular person drives on Tuesday and how fast. What routes they use. If a person keeps their tires inflated. Beamed from the car right to their database at any time. How does All State get that kind of data?

    I donít know if thatíll make pricing better or not. It will be the first pricing related to behavior in relatively real time though. The goal might be to influence good driving behavior directly through consumer price rather than reducing repair costs.

    Yeah this is wrong. There are already insurance companies doing this. Or near enough to not make a difference. It's not a very popular insurance method, yet.

    https://www.wired.com/2016/11/car-insurance-pricing-broken-phone-fix/

    How does All State get that kind of data?

    It's called Drivewise.
    https://www.allstate.com/drive-wise.aspx\

    In State Farm it's called Drive Safe. Progressive calls it Snapshot. SmartRide from Nationwide. Etc.

    Point taken! Thanks. I do think there is value in that program being inherent in Tesla's product and not an opt in product. The other insurance companies also can't recover 360 video of incidents (that I know of without an additional device) nor real-time data about the physical aspects of the vehicle in addition to the driver. In general, the driver data is an incremental step. The goal of the product is Tesla being able to insure the car when it's driving autonomously.
    « Last Edit: February 19, 2021, 09:22:40 AM by lemonlyman »

    TomTX

    • Magnum Stache
    • ******
    • Posts: 4623
    • Location: Texas
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #626 on: February 19, 2021, 08:35:21 PM »
    This is what bothers me about Tesla and Crypto:

    https://seekingalpha.com/news/3663925-tesla-and-bitcoin

    Too many garbage articles at Seeking Alpha, especially when the topic is Tesla.

    StashingAway

    • Pencil Stache
    • ****
    • Posts: 616
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #627 on: February 20, 2021, 06:32:31 AM »
    TESLA is now a great investment. Having 1.5B of bitcoin on the balance sheet gives them a huge advantage over other companies. They also have a sugar momma named Cathy. Trying to value them based on the cars is not useful at this point. They are an AI (software), energy tax credit, crypto, story driven company.

    This part right here! Around a month ago I saw an article where they announced launching their own solar power inverter. They definitely seem to be an Energy Technology and Software who just happens to package it in a self produced car.

    Maybe this is where I have it wrong (or, better said, if I have it wrong this is my blind spot).

    Side question: is there anything special about their inverter, or is it mostly offered to complete the "Tesla" solar package?

    TomTX

    • Magnum Stache
    • ******
    • Posts: 4623
    • Location: Texas
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #628 on: February 20, 2021, 09:14:36 AM »
    TESLA is now a great investment. Having 1.5B of bitcoin on the balance sheet gives them a huge advantage over other companies. They also have a sugar momma named Cathy. Trying to value them based on the cars is not useful at this point. They are an AI (software), energy tax credit, crypto, story driven company.

    This part right here! Around a month ago I saw an article where they announced launching their own solar power inverter. They definitely seem to be an Energy Technology and Software who just happens to package it in a self produced car.

    Maybe this is where I have it wrong (or, better said, if I have it wrong this is my blind spot).

    Side question: is there anything special about their inverter, or is it mostly offered to complete the "Tesla" solar package?

    They can produce an inverter designed to optimize the 4-way connection between solar, house demand, PowerWall and the grid.

    StashingAway

    • Pencil Stache
    • ****
    • Posts: 616
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #629 on: February 20, 2021, 11:32:01 AM »
    They can produce an inverter designed to optimize the 4-way connection between solar, house demand, PowerWall and the grid.

    I'm reading about it a bit more. It's nothing special other than working with the Tesla app. But makes sense from a bundling standpoint.

    TomTX

    • Magnum Stache
    • ******
    • Posts: 4623
    • Location: Texas
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #630 on: February 20, 2021, 12:05:56 PM »
    They can produce an inverter designed to optimize the 4-way connection between solar, house demand, PowerWall and the grid.

    I'm reading about it a bit more. It's nothing special other than working with the Tesla app. But makes sense from a bundling standpoint.

    Some people would also say the octovalve is nothing special. Move heat around. Automotive design engineers are impressed and think that way due to the level of integration, allowing for a lighter, more compact, more efficient unit.

    StashingAway

    • Pencil Stache
    • ****
    • Posts: 616
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #631 on: February 20, 2021, 01:35:39 PM »
    They can produce an inverter designed to optimize the 4-way connection between solar, house demand, PowerWall and the grid.

    I'm reading about it a bit more. It's nothing special other than working with the Tesla app. But makes sense from a bundling standpoint.

    Some people would also say the octovalve is nothing special. Move heat around. Automotive design engineers are impressed and think that way due to the level of integration, allowing for a lighter, more compact, more efficient unit.

    It's an inverter. From the specs it appears to be a standard string inverter with mediocre efficiency at that (meaning it's a far cry from what some of the microinverters can do these days).

    I would be glad to be proven wrong, but currently this just sounds like rose colored Tesla glasses.

    I would buy it if I were getting a whole Tesla solar setup (Panels, charger, powerwall, etc.) But I would do the same with any solar install; grouping manufacturers' makes the install more reliable and predictable.

    And the Octovalve is an industry 3rd, at best. Volkswagen ID.3 and Mercedes EQC do the same thing. And the Nissan Leaf was the first vehicle to use a heat pump in their vehicle (although theirs was a simple air-to-air one). But Nissan using one in a 25K vehicle in 2013 when Tesla was using standard resistance heat in their 80K Model S shows that they aren't the peak innovators in every category. Lots of EVs use various heat pump variants. But, you know, Tesla gets all the credit.
    « Last Edit: February 20, 2021, 01:40:02 PM by StashingAway »

    TomTX

    • Magnum Stache
    • ******
    • Posts: 4623
    • Location: Texas
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #632 on: February 21, 2021, 07:58:23 AM »
    If you think that octovalve is "just a heatpump" - I suggest deeper analysis. Sandy Munro's Youtube videos are an option for getting you started.

    I don't know that the Tesla inverter is anything special yet. Their habit is to get out viable product and rapidly iterate improvements.

    StashingAway

    • Pencil Stache
    • ****
    • Posts: 616
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #633 on: February 21, 2021, 09:46:12 AM »
    If you think that octovalve is "just a heatpump"

    Point to where I said that, please.  EDIT: I just realized my "industry third" quote could be misinterpreted. I meant that they were the third to release an advanced heat pump system. Theirs is arguably the best, but the other two are quite impressive.

    Also, did you bother looking up the Volkswagen and Mercedes technologies? They are also more than "just a heatpump" as well. Leaf's is "just a heapump", but that can be forgiven because they released it two years sooner and on a car that costs 40K less than the first Tesla to use one.

    The new permanent magnet motor tech to increase efficiency on the S and X? Yeah, Prius did that first.

    I'm actually quite an enthusiast. I love energy and efficiency and all of that. I'm not saying what Tesla is don't isn't impressive. But if you ONLY watch Tesla videos on youtube, you're going to think they're the only ones innovating whatsoever. Perhaps the hype machine that they've built is what their valuation really is. Gonna be pretty hard to make any space in the marketplace if Tesla gets credit for everyone else's innovations (as well as theirs).

    I don't know that the Tesla inverter is anything special yet.

    Which is fine. My point is exactly this. It's just an inverter. Probably even just a re-badged one like they use in their Powerwall. Which is totally fine; companies do that all the time! Same reason so many car companies use the same airbag manufacturer. No reason to re-invent everything everytime.
    « Last Edit: February 21, 2021, 09:51:40 AM by StashingAway »

    theoverlook

    • Bristles
    • ***
    • Posts: 449
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #634 on: February 22, 2021, 09:14:33 AM »
    The new permanent magnet motor tech to increase efficiency on the S and X? Yeah, Prius did that first.

    Hey now, the "old" induction motor was actually the higher performance unit, but I guess they decided improving efficiency was more important than the advantages an induction motor offers. (Fair enough; efficiency is important!)

    Proud Foot

    • Handlebar Stache
    • *****
    • Posts: 1156
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #635 on: February 22, 2021, 02:29:45 PM »
    They can produce an inverter designed to optimize the 4-way connection between solar, house demand, PowerWall and the grid.

    I'm reading about it a bit more. It's nothing special other than working with the Tesla app. But makes sense from a bundling standpoint.

    I'm not technical at all when it comes to electronic engineering. I read it and was more surprised that they are just now producing it. I would have thought it would have been one of the first things produced after they introduced their solar products.

    TomTX

    • Magnum Stache
    • ******
    • Posts: 4623
    • Location: Texas
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #636 on: February 22, 2021, 05:04:15 PM »
    They can produce an inverter designed to optimize the 4-way connection between solar, house demand, PowerWall and the grid.

    I'm reading about it a bit more. It's nothing special other than working with the Tesla app. But makes sense from a bundling standpoint.

    I'm not technical at all when it comes to electronic engineering. I read it and was more surprised that they are just now producing it. I would have thought it would have been one of the first things produced after they introduced their solar products.

    There were a lot of organizational issues to overcome with the Solar City acquisition. Painful ones. They retooled the whole customer acquisition model, jettisoned the rather expensive (and sometimes shady) sales force. And the technical side was focused on getting the Solar Roof (integrated shingle product) working well enough.

    TomTX

    • Magnum Stache
    • ******
    • Posts: 4623
    • Location: Texas
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #637 on: February 22, 2021, 05:07:15 PM »
    Also, did you bother looking up the Volkswagen and Mercedes technologies? They are also more than "just a heatpump" as well. Leaf's is "just a heapump", but that can be forgiven because they released it two years sooner and on a car that costs 40K less than the first Tesla to use one.


    Got any links to a real technical teardown? I see a lot of marketing fluff, and stuff like this:

    https://insideevs.com/news/460193/nextmove-heat-pump-vw-id3-less-efficient/

    Roland of Gilead

    • Handlebar Stache
    • *****
    • Posts: 2376
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #638 on: March 06, 2021, 10:55:31 AM »
    $850 invested in Tesla a couple weeks ago worth $600 now.

    I guess any investment is good if you get in and out with the right timing.

    vand

    • Handlebar Stache
    • *****
    • Posts: 1591
    • Location: UK
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #639 on: March 06, 2021, 02:16:52 PM »
    Howard Marks says that good investing is not a function of buying good things, it is a function of buying things well. No asset is of such a high quality that you can't overpay for it and lose money, and no asset is so intrinsically bad that it can't be a good investment at a low enough price.

    He says this of this experience in the Nifty 50 and then junk bonds:

    Quote
    "The bank practiced like all the other banks something nifty 50 investing and it bought the stocks of the 50 greatest, fastest, growing companies in America, IBM, Xerox, Kodak, Polaroid, Avon, Merck, Lilly, Texas Instruments, Hewlett-Packard. These companies were so adored and people were so sure that nothing could go wrong with them and people were so convinced that they would be fast growing in terms of profit that their prices just got too high. And if you had joined my bank when I did and bought these stocks and held them for five years, you wouldíve lost almost all your money. And thatís an amazing thing. They were great companies and you couldíve lost, as I say, almost all your money, 80%, 90% in many cases.


    Ten years later, I switched to high-yield bonds and I was asked to start the bankís portfolio in high-yield bonds, which was one of the first from a financial institution. Now, Iím dealing with the worst companies in America. I say that a little bit ironically but, you know, by definition, high-yield bond issuers are not gilt-edged companies, and am making money steadily and safely.

    So what did that experience tell you? If you can lose a lot of money in the best company and make a lot of money steadily and safely in the worst companies, what are the lessons? The main lesson is itís not what you buy, itís what you pay for, that determine whether something is a good investment or a bad investment.

    One of the ways I like to say it, good investing is not a function of buying good things, itís a function of buying things well. People should think about that and they should think about it until they understand it because if you donít know the difference between buying the good asset and making a good investment, then youíre not gonna be a successful investor. Good investing comes from buying things for less than their intrinsic value. As my own experience has shown, there is no asset which is so good that it canít become overpriced and thus a bad investment. There are very few assets which are so terrible that they canít become under-priced and thatís a good investment. "

    « Last Edit: March 06, 2021, 02:21:03 PM by vand »

    mistymoney

    • Pencil Stache
    • ****
    • Posts: 971
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #640 on: March 07, 2021, 03:13:21 PM »
    https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/07/tech/elon-musk-net-worth/index.html

    Quote
    Elon Musk's net worth plunged last week as tech stocks got hammered and Tesla shares' stunning rise quickly unraveled.

    Wall Street is growing increasingly nervous about rising bond yields, which could make borrowing more expensive. That could eat into corporate profits, which is why investors have begun to reverse some of the positions they took over the past year in high-growth but risky tech stocks like Tesla.

    Tesla's (TSLA) stock fell 11.5% last week. Musk, who owns nearly 18% of Tesla's shares, bore most of the brunt of that massive sell-off.

    Musk's wealth fell by $27 billion last week, according to Bloomberg's Billionaires Index. The decline in his net value is roughly equal to the entire fortune held by Dyson founder James Dyson -- the 52nd richest person in the world, according to Bloomberg.

    theoverlook

    • Bristles
    • ***
    • Posts: 449
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #641 on: March 08, 2021, 08:37:46 AM »
    https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/07/tech/elon-musk-net-worth/index.html

    Quote
    Elon Musk's net worth plunged last week as tech stocks got hammered and Tesla shares' stunning rise quickly unraveled.
    Yeah, it fell all the way down to its 12/2020 price!

    The 24 hour new cycle is ridiculous - doubly so when applied to financial news.

    PaulMaxime

    • Bristles
    • ***
    • Posts: 304
    • Age: 58
    • Location: San Francisco, CA
    • Absolute power doesn't corrupt, it reveals.
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #642 on: March 08, 2021, 09:50:57 AM »
    https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/07/tech/elon-musk-net-worth/index.html

    Quote
    Elon Musk's net worth plunged last week as tech stocks got hammered and Tesla shares' stunning rise quickly unraveled.
    Yeah, it fell all the way down to its 12/2020 price!

    The 24 hour new cycle is ridiculous - doubly so when applied to financial news.

    It's so true. The media and the financial world have such a short term focus it's crazy. I've been invested in Tesla since 2012 and don't plan on selling any time soon. I did sell some shares recently because I'm buying a new house and needed some cash but most of my shares are safely locked away.

    I see the same thing from them with things like SpaceX starship. They are building prototypes. The fact that a few of them have exploded is not even a big deal but the press is all like "SpaceX fails again." They are landing rockets for reuse. How crazy is that?

    AdrianC

    • Handlebar Stache
    • *****
    • Posts: 1149
    • Location: Cincinnati

    MustacheAndaHalf

    • Magnum Stache
    • ******
    • Posts: 4425
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #644 on: March 09, 2021, 08:52:12 AM »
    I think the news media is aiming at the "who is the richest" angle, with Musk falling behind Besos, who catches up, etc.  Kinda silly over whatever time frame.

    If they instead said Tesla has fallen 25% over the past month, that seems less like a 24 hour news story to me.

    SpaceX is conducting experiments and gaining understanding... I mean, or the media can show pictures of stuff blowing up.  One guess which angle they take...

    marty998

    • Walrus Stache
    • *******
    • Posts: 7321
    • Location: Sydney, Oz
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #645 on: March 10, 2021, 04:45:23 AM »
    https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/07/tech/elon-musk-net-worth/index.html

    Quote
    Elon Musk's net worth plunged last week as tech stocks got hammered and Tesla shares' stunning rise quickly unraveled.
    Yeah, it fell all the way down to its 12/2020 price!

    The 24 hour new cycle is ridiculous - doubly so when applied to financial news.

    It's so true. The media and the financial world have such a short term focus it's crazy. I've been invested in Tesla since 2012 and don't plan on selling any time soon. I did sell some shares recently because I'm buying a new house and needed some cash but most of my shares are safely locked away.

    I see the same thing from them with things like SpaceX starship. They are building prototypes. The fact that a few of them have exploded is not even a big deal but the press is all like "SpaceX fails again." They are landing rockets for reuse. How crazy is that?

    Considering how difficult it is to even launch a rocket, itís truly astonishing that they can land one (on a target platform no less).

    Imagine what will be possible by 2100 at the rate things are going :)

    mistymoney

    • Pencil Stache
    • ****
    • Posts: 971
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #646 on: March 10, 2021, 01:45:02 PM »

    TomTX

    • Magnum Stache
    • ******
    • Posts: 4623
    • Location: Texas
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #647 on: March 10, 2021, 08:28:36 PM »
    No robot taxis anytime soon?

    https://www.thedrive.com/tech/39647/tesla-admits-current-full-self-driving-beta-will-always-be-a-level-2-system-emails
    So the clickbait title is directly contradicted by the actual quoted text. It's currently a Level 2 system. Doesn't say it "will always be" one.

    TomTX

    • Magnum Stache
    • ******
    • Posts: 4623
    • Location: Texas
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #648 on: March 10, 2021, 08:31:06 PM »
    I see the same thing from them with things like SpaceX starship. They are building prototypes. The fact that a few of them have exploded is not even a big deal but the press is all like "SpaceX fails again." They are landing rockets for reuse. How crazy is that?

    Yeah, the press is all in the OldSpace mode of things like the SLS that take over a decade to build, expensive aerospace parts and billions of dollars. SpaceX is spending a few weeks just welding up some standard stainless in a shed out on the mudflats. Costs are more like $10M for one prototype, if that much. Less if they can actually recover the Raptors instead of blowing up ;)

    AdrianC

    • Handlebar Stache
    • *****
    • Posts: 1149
    • Location: Cincinnati
    Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
    « Reply #649 on: March 11, 2021, 08:18:52 AM »
    No robot taxis anytime soon?

    https://www.thedrive.com/tech/39647/tesla-admits-current-full-self-driving-beta-will-always-be-a-level-2-system-emails
    So the clickbait title is directly contradicted by the actual quoted text. It's currently a Level 2 system. Doesn't say it "will always be" one.

    The Tesla email says "a final release of City Streets will continue to be an SAE Level 2, advanced driver-assistance feature."

    "City Streets" will always be Level 2. What feature was added to make "Full Self-Driving Beta"?