Author Topic: Is Tesla a good investment?  (Read 410326 times)

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1450 on: December 19, 2022, 09:44:41 AM »
Tesla finances:

https://twitter.com/ChrisBloomstran/status/1603371089853382657

In the beginning, Tesla was a dream. From that point to today, the company raised $32 billion in equity capital and earned a cumulative profit of $9 billion. Book value, firm equity, sums to $41 billion. The CEO has sold $40 billion of shares (all given as options), and counting.

Does Musk selling at this level bother any holders?

Yes, but not that much. And explains the lower prices. Picked up 2 more today.

And, since I am hoping for a change in managment, kind of good for Musk to have less of the company.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1451 on: December 19, 2022, 10:13:23 AM »
The transition from animal power to mechanized vehicles was a much larger shift in innovation than ICE -> BEV.
Is it? Doesn't seem obviously so to me. How about going through your rationale?

Be sure to keep in mind the "refuel at home" equivalence for animal power and BEVs, etc.

Horses are living creatures that require effort to keep alive even when not in use. As living creatures they're limited to a daily range of 10-20 miles, depending on load and conditions. Automobiles don't have any of these limitations, but are a lot more technologically sophisticated. A horse drawn buggy is relatively simple to create and assemble, which was typically created by a craftsman. Whereas the automobile required thousands of moving parts, specialized engineering, factories, and assembly lines.

Other than the drive-train, the manufacturing process for BEV and ICE vehicles is more-or-less the same. Suspension, body, seats, interior, etc.  An ICE drive-train has around 2000+ moving parts, whereas a BEV has around 20, so the complexity of the BEV supply chain and manufacturing process is actually lower, which means a lower barrier to entry for competitors.

I'm not a legacy fanboy, but neither am I a Tesla fanboy. It's worth noting that legacy makers aren't the only competition, as Rivian and others also enter the fray. I simply don't buy the narrative that Tesla is SO far ahead of the competition that other manufactures cannot catch up. The Mach E is a darn good EV, especially for Ford's first iteration. The legacy companies are already ramping up, not yet to Tesla's level, but I believe they will get there relatively soon.

I will buy the competition is coming narrative as soon as someone points to a realistic pathway for another EV manufacturer to produce a  million EVs in 2023 or 2 million in 2024. Tesla will produce 1.45 million this year, around 2.5 million in 2023, and close to 4 million in 2024. And most importantly, Tesla has the EV dedicated factories, raw materials, supplier contracts, battery cell/pack supply, and logistics already in place to achieve those production numbers. No other manufacturer does, which is why they’re playing catch-up and will be for years. You don’t just wake up one day flip a switch in the factory from ICE to EV.
Tesla has launched 6 new vehicles in their entire history.  That is what GM or Ford does in a couple years.

If you think the other manufacturers cannot scale at a dizzying pace, you're in for a surprise.  There is a reason Ford and GM are beating the Cybertruck to market.

Would you rather invest in a company that offers 10 different vehicles, but sells 200,000/year (at a loss) or invest in a company that offers 4 different vehicles but sells 1.4 million a year (for 30% margin)?

Tesla is supply constrained. The are selling every vehicle they can make. There are sunk costs to rolling out new vehicles. As a Tesla investor I don’t want them rolling out new lines until they have the battery supply to support new vehicle lines. Why spend all the money rolling out a new vehicle if you’re already selling your existing vehicles for 30 margin as fast as you can make them? Who cares how many different vehicles Ford and GM are proposing to making if they’re not making money on the ones they are selling.

Tesla will expand their vehicle offering as fast as the battery supply allows. The Semi truck wasn’t delayed. Tesla had to choose between producing one semi or five Model Ys with the same available batteries. Pushing the Semi out was the better, more profitable business decision.

Same with the promised, cheaper sedan. Tesla could produce that vehicle today, no problem, but why would they? Why would they manufacture a cheaper vehicle with 20% margin instead of a more expensive vehicle with 30% margin when they are battery cell constrained?

Same folks criticizing Tesla for not bringing more vehicles to market sooner would be critiziing Tesla if the profit margins dropped.

Hey colorado, do you know what the differences are going to be to make the 25k vehicle? Wondering what is going to be different....

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1452 on: December 19, 2022, 10:22:26 AM »
Tesla will expand their vehicle offering as fast as the battery supply allows. The Semi truck wasn’t delayed. Tesla had to choose between producing one semi or five Model Ys with the same available batteries. Pushing the Semi out was the better, more profitable business decision.

It might've been a good business decision to focus on the Model Y but you're not using the same definition of "delayed" as the rest of us. Pepsi was expecting a delivery last year. Note the date on the article (Nov 08, 2021).

Quote from: https://insideevs.com/news/546341/pepsico-tesla-semi-deliveries-q42021/
Earlier this year, the beverage giant said it expected to take delivery of those 15 Semi trucks by the end of 2021, but that was before Tesla confirmed another delay to the program.
(bolded)

Musk is a vaporware master.


How is a delivered product vaporware?

GM was going to make the Nikola Badger. Gone.
Ford said they'd have autonomous vehicles by 2021 in 2018. They've since shuttered Argo AI.
Toyota said in 2019 50% of their sales would be EV by 2025.  Now it's 2030 and only 1/3.
Nissan said the Ariya would be released by the end of 2021. Now fall of 2022.
Honda has had more EV concepts than EV sales.
https://www.goodwood.com/grr/road/news/2021/4/nineteen-cars-that-were-never-built/
...10 minutes of looking.

Product delays are endless from many companies. Talking points implying this is unique to Tesla or even the auto industry is disingenuous at best.

Yes, this is along my lines of evaluation on the arguments here. Tesla is under a microscope for every passing statement made about upcoming production that didn't happen, but the competitors are just waved in with.....they're experienced.....they can do it.....

Yes, cybertruck was delayed a lot. Now that it is online, I was considering it. There is a 3 year backlog of orders to fill, so I couldn't wait on that! Working at capacity on the cybertruck press will take them 3 years to complete existing orders....

So, to have a compelling argument, you need to consider the pros and the cons of both tesla and the competition - so a 2x2 grid as it were. Only the negatives of tesla and the positives of the competition, which does not make for a compelling argument at all.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1453 on: December 19, 2022, 10:49:37 AM »
So, to be a bit real here, Tesla's stock is way down. But there is downward pressure on all stocks, indexes down 20% YTD, with Nasdaq down 33% - so that needs to be factored in. Telsa value shot up way too far/fast last half of 2021 so something of a pullback only made sense, even if the market as a whole did not. Now there is additional downward pressure due to Musk antics on twitter, and perhaps the perception he is doing nothing to lead tesla at all at the moment.

To me, this is a buying opportunity and I am buying. While I have a lot of confidence in Tesla and their products, I do worry about Musk's social influence. Could his 180 in politics and affiliations bring in new Tesla customers? I'm not convinced! They don't even beleive in climate change or harmful health effects of air pollution! But it is possible, I suppose.....Does he have a strategy here? Is this deliberate? Is he as unhinged as he seems to me? I really don't know, and neither does anyone else, I'm sure! Sometimes, I think he's having a mental health crisis to be honest.....

But the company I feel is solid, last 7 quarters of EPS have been positive surprises from analyst predictions.......and I for one am happy that the stock has experienced a lot of downward pressure on the price right now.....giving an opportunity to stock up a little bit, and to feel more confident it isn't over priced.

I'm also stocking up heavily on indexes in 401k, and will start with ibonds in January again...so, I don't get what the big deal is at all. Some of us think Tesla will do very well going forward, others don't.

But there is no argument to be 'won' here. 3-5 years out tesla perfomance will be the determinate.



bacchi

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1454 on: December 19, 2022, 10:56:59 AM »
Tesla will expand their vehicle offering as fast as the battery supply allows. The Semi truck wasn’t delayed. Tesla had to choose between producing one semi or five Model Ys with the same available batteries. Pushing the Semi out was the better, more profitable business decision.

It might've been a good business decision to focus on the Model Y but you're not using the same definition of "delayed" as the rest of us. Pepsi was expecting a delivery last year. Note the date on the article (Nov 08, 2021).

Quote from: https://insideevs.com/news/546341/pepsico-tesla-semi-deliveries-q42021/
Earlier this year, the beverage giant said it expected to take delivery of those 15 Semi trucks by the end of 2021, but that was before Tesla confirmed another delay to the program.
(bolded)

Musk is a vaporware master.


How is a delivered product vaporware?

So that we're clear on the definition of "vaporware":

Quote from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaporware
In the computer industry, vaporware (or vapourware) is a product, typically computer hardware or software, that is announced to the general public but is late or never actually manufactured nor officially cancelled. Use of the word has broadened to include products such as automobiles.

Quote
GM was going to make the Nikola Badger. Gone.
[etc.]
...10 minutes of looking.

Product delays are endless from many companies. Talking points implying this is unique to Tesla or even the auto industry is disingenuous at best.

My post, which was in response to a post that never mentioned GM or Ford or Toyota, was a counter to the claim that the Tesla semi wasn't delayed. As Musk is the CEO of Tesla, which produces the Tesla semi, it seems appropriate to mention him and his vaporware comments.

Or are you seriously trying to suggest that the semi was not delayed?


lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1455 on: December 19, 2022, 10:57:42 AM »
How is a delivered product vaporware?

Let's see, still waiting for: Cybertruck (promised 2021, was clearly vaporware to take the wind out of Rivian's sails), Full Self Driving (what a rip-off for those that paid for this), 1M Robo Taxis by 2020 (nope!), and Semi that was promised 2019 but has just now (end 2022) delivered it's first vehicles. Always free superchargers. The $35k Model 3. And more! https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a35350331/checking-in-on-all-the-promises-elon-musk-and-tesla-have-made/

You didn't answer my question. Semi was delivered. How is it vaporware? That's by definition not vaporware. I don't get that rationale of what you're saying. Will Cybertruck still be vaporware after deliveries? You can make the argument up until it's being shipped I guess. IDRA shipped the 9k ton press for Cybertruck. It's going to be made.

Also completely ignored the fact that many companies delay products/services and cling to a weird only Tesla does this argument.

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1456 on: December 19, 2022, 11:01:44 AM »
Tesla will expand their vehicle offering as fast as the battery supply allows. The Semi truck wasn’t delayed. Tesla had to choose between producing one semi or five Model Ys with the same available batteries. Pushing the Semi out was the better, more profitable business decision.

It might've been a good business decision to focus on the Model Y but you're not using the same definition of "delayed" as the rest of us. Pepsi was expecting a delivery last year. Note the date on the article (Nov 08, 2021).

Quote from: https://insideevs.com/news/546341/pepsico-tesla-semi-deliveries-q42021/
Earlier this year, the beverage giant said it expected to take delivery of those 15 Semi trucks by the end of 2021, but that was before Tesla confirmed another delay to the program.
(bolded)

Musk is a vaporware master.


How is a delivered product vaporware?

So that we're clear on the definition of "vaporware":

Quote from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaporware
In the computer industry, vaporware (or vapourware) is a product, typically computer hardware or software, that is announced to the general public but is late or never actually manufactured nor officially cancelled. Use of the word has broadened to include products such as automobiles.

Quote
GM was going to make the Nikola Badger. Gone.
[etc.]
...10 minutes of looking.

Product delays are endless from many companies. Talking points implying this is unique to Tesla or even the auto industry is disingenuous at best.

My post, which was in response to a post that never mentioned GM or Ford or Toyota, was a counter to the claim that the Tesla semi wasn't delayed. As Musk is the CEO of Tesla, which produces the Tesla semi, it seems appropriate to mention him and his vaporware comments.

Or are you seriously trying to suggest that the semi was not delayed?

I'm not suggesting Semi wasn't delayed. I was operating under the definition that a product or service was Vaporware until produced.

va·por·ware
/ˈvāpərˌwer/
nounINFORMAL•COMPUTING
software or hardware that has been advertised but is not yet available to buy, either because it is only a concept or because it is still being written or designed.

Once delivered, it's not vaporware anymore. So I was asking how the Semi is now Vaporware.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1457 on: December 19, 2022, 11:07:34 AM »
So maybe some of you wiser ones can help me interpret this. I'm taking numbers from my td ameritrade accout information.

Tesla's PE is listed as 46 vs 35 for industry - so higher earning multiple which could be justified by much strong growth.

Price/Sales is 6 vs 100 for industry. So - price over gross sales is low, seems a positive. Investopedia tells me that a lower than industry number here could indicate the stock is undervalued....

price/book is 12 vs 11 for industry. I think this is impressive, that tesla is so close to the industry after being profitable for just a few years and buying so much equipment/land/building factories, etc. Seems like a huge investment in capital very quickly.

PEG ratio .96 vs .20 for industry. This seems odd to me, given tesla growth, but seems that the EPS is higher than the growth compared to other companies.

However, I am swayed heavily by the book value, as it seems to me that tesla stats are in the ballpark of the industry as a whole, while making massive investments in infrastructure that will increase production on profits going forward.

I'm looking forward to Q4 22 and Q1 23 results to see how the December delivery incentive and the new tax deal influence.

Then for Q2-4 in 23, the semi and cybertruck sales may all add in to some level of significance.


TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1458 on: December 19, 2022, 02:14:48 PM »
Oct 26, 2021 (date of bullish comment to Abe) - $359.01
Dec 16, 20221 - $150.23

That's a 40% drop, not a 5x return.
LOL! Goalpost shift rejected. That's almost 2 years after the post your referred to.

Can't you even keep track of which posters you lambast? I suggest going back and trying again.

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1459 on: December 19, 2022, 02:21:26 PM »
Tesla finances:

https://twitter.com/ChrisBloomstran/status/1603371089853382657

In the beginning, Tesla was a dream. From that point to today, the company raised $32 billion in equity capital and earned a cumulative profit of $9 billion. Book value, firm equity, sums to $41 billion. The CEO has sold $40 billion of shares (all given as options), and counting.

Does Musk selling at this level bother any holders?
That "analysis" is overly simplistic to the point of idiocy.

Note "options." What happens when options are executed? Income tax is due. In this case, typically maximum Fed income tax + maximum CA income tax. Over 50%.

What's the absolutely standard solution?

Sell enough shares to cover the taxes.

With that out of the way - Musk continuing to sell off shares (apparently) to support his Twitter addiction/obsession is troubling.

nick663

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1460 on: December 19, 2022, 08:11:31 PM »
The transition from animal power to mechanized vehicles was a much larger shift in innovation than ICE -> BEV.
Is it? Doesn't seem obviously so to me. How about going through your rationale?

Be sure to keep in mind the "refuel at home" equivalence for animal power and BEVs, etc.

Horses are living creatures that require effort to keep alive even when not in use. As living creatures they're limited to a daily range of 10-20 miles, depending on load and conditions. Automobiles don't have any of these limitations, but are a lot more technologically sophisticated. A horse drawn buggy is relatively simple to create and assemble, which was typically created by a craftsman. Whereas the automobile required thousands of moving parts, specialized engineering, factories, and assembly lines.

Other than the drive-train, the manufacturing process for BEV and ICE vehicles is more-or-less the same. Suspension, body, seats, interior, etc.  An ICE drive-train has around 2000+ moving parts, whereas a BEV has around 20, so the complexity of the BEV supply chain and manufacturing process is actually lower, which means a lower barrier to entry for competitors.

I'm not a legacy fanboy, but neither am I a Tesla fanboy. It's worth noting that legacy makers aren't the only competition, as Rivian and others also enter the fray. I simply don't buy the narrative that Tesla is SO far ahead of the competition that other manufactures cannot catch up. The Mach E is a darn good EV, especially for Ford's first iteration. The legacy companies are already ramping up, not yet to Tesla's level, but I believe they will get there relatively soon.

I will buy the competition is coming narrative as soon as someone points to a realistic pathway for another EV manufacturer to produce a  million EVs in 2023 or 2 million in 2024. Tesla will produce 1.45 million this year, around 2.5 million in 2023, and close to 4 million in 2024. And most importantly, Tesla has the EV dedicated factories, raw materials, supplier contracts, battery cell/pack supply, and logistics already in place to achieve those production numbers. No other manufacturer does, which is why they’re playing catch-up and will be for years. You don’t just wake up one day flip a switch in the factory from ICE to EV.
Tesla has launched 6 new vehicles in their entire history.  That is what GM or Ford does in a couple years.

If you think the other manufacturers cannot scale at a dizzying pace, you're in for a surprise.  There is a reason Ford and GM are beating the Cybertruck to market.

Would you rather invest in a company that offers 10 different vehicles, but sells 200,000/year (at a loss) or invest in a company that offers 4 different vehicles but sells 1.4 million a year (for 30% margin)?

Tesla is supply constrained. The are selling every vehicle they can make. There are sunk costs to rolling out new vehicles. As a Tesla investor I don’t want them rolling out new lines until they have the battery supply to support new vehicle lines. Why spend all the money rolling out a new vehicle if you’re already selling your existing vehicles for 30 margin as fast as you can make them? Who cares how many different vehicles Ford and GM are proposing to making if they’re not making money on the ones they are selling.

Tesla will expand their vehicle offering as fast as the battery supply allows. The Semi truck wasn’t delayed. Tesla had to choose between producing one semi or five Model Ys with the same available batteries. Pushing the Semi out was the better, more profitable business decision.

Same with the promised, cheaper sedan. Tesla could produce that vehicle today, no problem, but why would they? Why would they manufacture a cheaper vehicle with 20% margin instead of a more expensive vehicle with 30% margin when they are battery cell constrained?

Same folks criticizing Tesla for not bringing more vehicles to market sooner would be critiziing Tesla if the profit margins dropped.
In a dynamic industry that is currently being disrupted?  I would prefer a company that has shown an ability to bring new product to market quickly as they are poised to take advantage of the market changes.

It cannot be denied that Tesla's margins are great but I'm betting that part of that is due to a lack of resources for new product launches.  It is working fine for them now but what happens if the market is no longer interested in what they're offering?  They're either going to have to drastically increase staffing or discount their vehicles.  Their current staffing model seems to be closer to Stellantis/Nissan than the top brands of the auto industry.

Niceday

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1461 on: December 20, 2022, 12:58:06 AM »
This thread is almost 5 years old. The bears have been wrong all along and missed out on gigantic gains. Some bears say they have TSLA in their index funds and so they are set. But if they're so negative on TSLA, they should just short the stock or at least short enough to offset their TSLA in their index funds. After all, there is no point in holding a stock when you're so sure of the gloom and doom. Bulls always put their money where their mouth is.

If you say something to the effect of "TSLA's valuation is higher than the other top 4 automakers COMBINED", it shows a very superficial view of how stocks are valued in the market. The stock market doesn't work like that.

As many have pointed out, the total addressable market for EV's is huge. Tesla's market share can go down and still grow revenue and profits. Tesla's earnings power is supported by real numbers if you care to look. Tesla's sales can be negatively impacted by a number of things including: 2022 end year sales due to the upcoming IRA; Covid spread in China; high interest rates; possible recession; Elon+Twitter, but competition is not one of the factors.

Some bears spend so much time and energy commenting repeatedly in this long thread. They don't have a position in the stock other than what's in the index fund. I find that strange.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1462 on: December 20, 2022, 03:50:44 AM »
This thread is almost 5 years old. The bears have been wrong all along and missed out on gigantic gains. Some bears say they have TSLA in their index funds and so they are set. But if they're so negative on TSLA, they should just short the stock or at least short enough to offset their TSLA in their index funds. After all, there is no point in holding a stock when you're so sure of the gloom and doom. Bulls always put their money where their mouth is.

The thread is about whether TSLA is a good investment or not. That can change over time as macro environments change, competition changes, and the company itself changes. If you bought at the right time, TSLA certainly has been a good investment. That doesn't necessarily mean that it currently is. Tesla now is a much different company than it was 5+ years ago. They resemble a traditional carmaker more and more with each passing day of growth. If you bought a house at the right time in the last 10 years that's probably seen huge gains in value on paper as well. That doesn't mean that now is the right time to buy more homes, or for an outsider to buy in. The value of any asset at a given time is dependent on many factors.

If Elon's outside interests can have significant impacts on the share price and investor return, then the share price isn't based solely on business fundamentals. Basing decisions entirely on those fundamentals seems a bit myopic or dismissive of the outside risks unrelated to the company's performance at all. The stock has been boosted in the past by some amount of irrational support for Elon, and seems to be seeing some amount of erosion due to Elon's antics in recent months. We can argue about how much impact that emotion has had/is having but I think it's easy to see that it's played some role in the value of the stock, and is likely to continue. Not every investor is rational. There's a speculative nature about TSLA that is much higher than other individual stocks simply because the leader is so high profile, and the stock's value can change on the whims of Elon's twitter fingers or what he does in his other companies.
« Last Edit: December 20, 2022, 03:54:02 AM by Paper Chaser »

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1463 on: December 20, 2022, 06:54:08 AM »
This thread is almost 5 years old. The bears have been wrong all along and missed out on gigantic gains.

The price of Tesla is now down to levels last seen in November 2020, so "the bears" have been right for at least the past 25 months, not counting opportunity cost.

theoverlook

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1464 on: December 20, 2022, 08:05:59 AM »
This thread is almost 5 years old. The bears have been wrong all along and missed out on gigantic gains.

The price of Tesla is now down to levels last seen in November 2020, so "the bears" have been right for at least the past 25 months, not counting opportunity cost.

The price of VTSAX/VTI is also down to levels last seen in December 2020. Not a very compelling argument there.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1465 on: December 20, 2022, 08:36:30 AM »
This thread is almost 5 years old. The bears have been wrong all along and missed out on gigantic gains.

The price of Tesla is now down to levels last seen in November 2020, so "the bears" have been right for at least the past 25 months, not counting opportunity cost.

The price of VTSAX/VTI is also down to levels last seen in December 2020. Not a very compelling argument there.


:P

Don't let facts get in the way of the narrative......


Niceday

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1466 on: December 20, 2022, 12:53:43 PM »
This thread is almost 5 years old. The bears have been wrong all along and missed out on gigantic gains. Some bears say they have TSLA in their index funds and so they are set. But if they're so negative on TSLA, they should just short the stock or at least short enough to offset their TSLA in their index funds. After all, there is no point in holding a stock when you're so sure of the gloom and doom. Bulls always put their money where their mouth is.

The thread is about whether TSLA is a good investment or not. That can change over time as macro environments change, competition changes, and the company itself changes. If you bought at the right time, TSLA certainly has been a good investment. That doesn't necessarily mean that it currently is. Tesla now is a much different company than it was 5+ years ago. They resemble a traditional carmaker more and more with each passing day of growth. If you bought a house at the right time in the last 10 years that's probably seen huge gains in value on paper as well. That doesn't mean that now is the right time to buy more homes, or for an outsider to buy in. The value of any asset at a given time is dependent on many factors.

If Elon's outside interests can have significant impacts on the share price and investor return, then the share price isn't based solely on business fundamentals. Basing decisions entirely on those fundamentals seems a bit myopic or dismissive of the outside risks unrelated to the company's performance at all. The stock has been boosted in the past by some amount of irrational support for Elon, and seems to be seeing some amount of erosion due to Elon's antics in recent months. We can argue about how much impact that emotion has had/is having but I think it's easy to see that it's played some role in the value of the stock, and is likely to continue. Not every investor is rational. There's a speculative nature about TSLA that is much higher than other individual stocks simply because the leader is so high profile, and the stock's value can change on the whims of Elon's twitter fingers or what he does in his other companies.

You conveniently left out the part where I said "Tesla's sales can be affected by the following: 2022 end year sales due to the upcoming IRA; Covid spread in China; high interest rates; possible recession; Elon+Twitter, but competition is not one of the factors." The main argument of the bears has  been "the competition is coming". Tesla can have problems but it's not because of the competition, at least not for a long time.

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1467 on: December 20, 2022, 01:40:55 PM »
This thread is almost 5 years old. The bears have been wrong all along and missed out on gigantic gains. Some bears say they have TSLA in their index funds and so they are set. But if they're so negative on TSLA, they should just short the stock or at least short enough to offset their TSLA in their index funds. After all, there is no point in holding a stock when you're so sure of the gloom and doom. Bulls always put their money where their mouth is.


We've covered this in the thread at least twice by now (you're bringing it up a third time at minimum). Being bearish on a stock and taking action on that predisposition are not the same thing, especially when it comes to investing. Some of us invest in index funds for the very precise reason that we can't know how individuals in the market can pan out. The markets can do weird things, especially in the short term. Sunk cost fallacy, survivor ship bias, and a myriad of other psychological tendencies make it a statistically poor decision to do for ANY stock; bear, bull, or otherwise. The general climate of the MMM forum is in this view; it is one way of investing. It doesn't mean that we can't verbally speculate or suggest our thoughts. I won't short a stock for the same reason I won't buy one; it's just not part of my investment goals. It sounds like this is offensive to you; this isn't personal. We are discussing a stock; it has nothing to do with your choices.

I personally am idealistically bearish on all vehicle sales. It isn't a realistic view though. I would love to short the whole auto industry because I don't think it is good for our planet. But that's a discussion that's been had as well. I don't think Tesla in general is a particularly bad choice; it's likely the best of all automakers. It's likely a great investment. But I don't want to own on an individual level for the same reason I don't want to buy stock in Nestle. The 4% rule is significantly more reliable from an investment standpoint and then I don't have to try to evaluate my personal beliefs with what I think the market is going to do.

Here's a brief summary of why I think the spotlight of our hopes and resources on cars is a distraction. Like any distraction, it's based on the truth (EVs are better than ICEs) but misses the forest for the trees.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/ev-transition-column-don-pittis-1.6667698
« Last Edit: December 20, 2022, 01:42:55 PM by StashingAway »

Niceday

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1468 on: December 20, 2022, 02:42:12 PM »
I like a good argument and want to see different opinions. That's why I'm on this forum. But please do some basic fact checks before posting something(not you but everyone in general) we don't need to deal with obvious errors like these(just to name a few examples):

- comparing share prices between 2 companies without considering the market caps
- looking at the PE in isolation(e.g the PE is negative or too high..)
- the market cap of tesla cannot be greater than all car manufacturers combined
- posting links to sensational articles written to attract ad dollars (they can be easily fact checked)

There are many ways tesla can go down as I've written before but listing one of the above is just bad.

AdrianC

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1469 on: December 20, 2022, 03:25:52 PM »
So maybe some of you wiser ones can help me interpret this. I'm taking numbers from my td ameritrade accout information.

Tesla's PE is listed as 46 vs 35 for industry - so higher earning multiple which could be justified by much strong growth.
...
Suspect your data is not correct.

https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/predefined/auto_manufacturers/

PE ratios:
Tesla 43
Toyota 10
GM 6
Ford 5
Stellantis 3
Honda 8

Single digit ratios are normal during good times for cyclicals like car manufacturers.

Tesla is different, of course, and deserves a higher multiple. 4x higher? Maybe.


mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1470 on: December 20, 2022, 05:09:22 PM »
So maybe some of you wiser ones can help me interpret this. I'm taking numbers from my td ameritrade accout information.

Tesla's PE is listed as 46 vs 35 for industry - so higher earning multiple which could be justified by much strong growth.
...
Suspect your data is not correct.

https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/predefined/auto_manufacturers/

PE ratios:
Tesla 43
Toyota 10
GM 6
Ford 5
Stellantis 3
Honda 8

Single digit ratios are normal during good times for cyclicals like car manufacturers.

Tesla is different, of course, and deserves a higher multiple. 4x higher? Maybe.

As I mentioned, these were the number in tdameritrade. What is defined as "industry"? Its not the sp500, but I can't find any specifics there.

Zamboni

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1471 on: December 20, 2022, 08:23:23 PM »
Musk now says he will step down as Twitter CEO. It will be interesting to see how (or if) that affects the stock price.

achvfi

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1472 on: December 21, 2022, 07:34:38 AM »
So, to be a bit real here, Tesla's stock is way down. But there is downward pressure on all stocks, indexes down 20% YTD, with Nasdaq down 33% - so that needs to be factored in. Telsa value shot up way too far/fast last half of 2021 so something of a pullback only made sense, even if the market as a whole did not. Now there is additional downward pressure due to Musk antics on twitter, and perhaps the perception he is doing nothing to lead tesla at all at the moment.

To me, this is a buying opportunity and I am buying. While I have a lot of confidence in Tesla and their products, I do worry about Musk's social influence. Could his 180 in politics and affiliations bring in new Tesla customers? I'm not convinced! They don't even beleive in climate change or harmful health effects of air pollution! But it is possible, I suppose.....Does he have a strategy here? Is this deliberate? Is he as unhinged as he seems to me? I really don't know, and neither does anyone else, I'm sure! Sometimes, I think he's having a mental health crisis to be honest.....

But the company I feel is solid, last 7 quarters of EPS have been positive surprises from analyst predictions.......and I for one am happy that the stock has experienced a lot of downward pressure on the price right now.....giving an opportunity to stock up a little bit, and to feel more confident it isn't over priced.

I'm also stocking up heavily on indexes in 401k, and will start with ibonds in January again...so, I don't get what the big deal is at all. Some of us think Tesla will do very well going forward, others don't.

But there is no argument to be 'won' here. 3-5 years out tesla perfomance will be the determinate.

May be you are obsessed with Tesla little too much?

Sounds like you invested between 70K - 100K in tesla stock and may be lost half of that so far and continue to buy more.
And bought a compact Tesla car for 50-60K, that does same function that a 15K car does.

Unless you have millions dollars in investments that is too much in one stock.

Tesla is big daddy of meme stocks. Its success so far is due to people not selling it no matter what. I think that brand has been damaged for good by EM, long term it is not a safe bet.

Be careful not catching falling knife. Be aware of sunk-cost fallacy.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1473 on: December 21, 2022, 08:34:06 AM »
This thread is almost 5 years old. The bears have been wrong all along and missed out on gigantic gains. Some bears say they have TSLA in their index funds and so they are set. But if they're so negative on TSLA, they should just short the stock or at least short enough to offset their TSLA in their index funds. After all, there is no point in holding a stock when you're so sure of the gloom and doom. Bulls always put their money where their mouth is.

The thread is about whether TSLA is a good investment or not. That can change over time as macro environments change, competition changes, and the company itself changes. If you bought at the right time, TSLA certainly has been a good investment. That doesn't necessarily mean that it currently is. Tesla now is a much different company than it was 5+ years ago. They resemble a traditional carmaker more and more with each passing day of growth. If you bought a house at the right time in the last 10 years that's probably seen huge gains in value on paper as well. That doesn't mean that now is the right time to buy more homes, or for an outsider to buy in. The value of any asset at a given time is dependent on many factors.

If Elon's outside interests can have significant impacts on the share price and investor return, then the share price isn't based solely on business fundamentals. Basing decisions entirely on those fundamentals seems a bit myopic or dismissive of the outside risks unrelated to the company's performance at all. The stock has been boosted in the past by some amount of irrational support for Elon, and seems to be seeing some amount of erosion due to Elon's antics in recent months. We can argue about how much impact that emotion has had/is having but I think it's easy to see that it's played some role in the value of the stock, and is likely to continue. Not every investor is rational. There's a speculative nature about TSLA that is much higher than other individual stocks simply because the leader is so high profile, and the stock's value can change on the whims of Elon's twitter fingers or what he does in his other companies.

You conveniently left out the part where I said "Tesla's sales can be affected by the following: 2022 end year sales due to the upcoming IRA; Covid spread in China; high interest rates; possible recession; Elon+Twitter, but competition is not one of the factors." The main argument of the bears has  been "the competition is coming". Tesla can have problems but it's not because of the competition, at least not for a long time.

Ok. We have many TSLA bulls in this thread that are adamant that because it's been a great investment, that it will continue to be a great investment. They often bring up business fundamentals as justification for the share price if people question their optimism, and then they pretty much handwave any impacts from investor sentiment as if that hasn't played a role thus far, and cannot in the future. It's fine to speculate on an individual stock, and for those who've taken the chance on TSLA, they've probably been rewarded pretty well. But TSLA seems to be more impacted by sentiment than most other individual stocks, so that should be a consideration for anybody holding the stock or anybody who reads this thread and may be considering new investment. I think it's key for anybody investing in an individual stock to have a clearly defined plan for divesting from that position, and all I ever really read in this thread is irrational exuberance about buying the dip, or holding for decades, or spending six figures to fully encase oneself in the entire Tesla ecosystem. It's obvious that many of the frequent TSLA supporters are not just financially invested, but also emotionally invested in the company and that seems potentially dangerous to me.

This thread has become a dichotomy of Bulls and Bears, and I don't see a bunch from either side that indicates an honest, moderate outlook without emotion. Tesla the company has come a tremendously long way in recent years. I've been proven wrong. The stock has exploded for a number of reasons. That doesn't mean that every idea they have is great, or that there are no valid criticisms of their products, or that past performance guarantees future results. Just because somebody has concern about an investment, or criticism for a company does not mean that they don't want to see it succeed. I very seriously doubt that most of the "bears" in this thread have any financial incentive influencing their comments in this thread. They're not actively rooting against Tesla, or TSLA shareholder's returns the way that "a short" might, but the responses from the "bulls" tend to imply that there's more ill will or malice than there actually is. I just don't want to see anybody get burned badly, and it seems like a few posters may be way out over their skis with their financial and emotional investment in TSLA.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2022, 08:57:07 AM by Paper Chaser »

Vashy

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1474 on: December 21, 2022, 09:13:21 AM »
So maybe some of you wiser ones can help me interpret this. I'm taking numbers from my td ameritrade accout information.

Tesla's PE is listed as 46 vs 35 for industry - so higher earning multiple which could be justified by much strong growth.
...
Suspect your data is not correct.

https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/predefined/auto_manufacturers/

PE ratios:
Tesla 43
Toyota 10
GM 6
Ford 5
Stellantis 3
Honda 8

Single digit ratios are normal during good times for cyclicals like car manufacturers.

Tesla is different, of course, and deserves a higher multiple. 4x higher? Maybe.

The part I don't understand about Tesla versus other mid-range to aspirational car companies is the huge amount of risk.

I mean, looking at Mercedes-Benz, it trades on 5.2 P/E with a forward dividend yield of 8%. BMW, a close peer, trades on 3 P/E and 7%. Tesla doesn't pay a dividend. How is this company better/more valuable (by 8x or 12x respectively) than BMW/Mercedes Benz that both have been around for a long time, have proven products and a wealth of patents and experience, as well as a company culture that isn't nearly as toxic (racist) as Tesla? Honestly don't understand it, but I'm more a value investor.

FINate

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1475 on: December 21, 2022, 09:52:56 AM »
Ok. We have many TSLA bulls in this thread that are adamant that because it's been a great investment, that it will continue to be a great investment. They often bring up business fundamentals as justification for the share price if people question their optimism, and then they pretty much handwave any impacts from investor sentiment as if that hasn't played a role thus far, and cannot in the future. It's fine to speculate on an individual stock, and for those who've taken the chance on TSLA, they've probably been rewarded pretty well. But TSLA seems to be more impacted by sentiment than most other individual stocks, so that should be a consideration for anybody holding the stock or anybody who reads this thread and may be considering new investment. I think it's key for anybody investing in an individual stock to have a clearly defined plan for divesting from that position, and all I ever really read in this thread is irrational exuberance about buying the dip, or holding for decades, or spending six figures to fully encase oneself in the entire Tesla ecosystem. It's obvious that many of the frequent TSLA supporters are not just financially invested, but also emotionally invested in the company and that seems potentially dangerous to me.

This thread has become a dichotomy of Bulls and Bears, and I don't see a bunch from either side that indicates an honest, moderate outlook without emotion. Tesla the company has come a tremendously long way in recent years. I've been proven wrong. The stock has exploded for a number of reasons. That doesn't mean that every idea they have is great, or that there are no valid criticisms of their products, or that past performance guarantees future results. Just because somebody has concern about an investment, or criticism for a company does not mean that they don't want to see it succeed. I very seriously doubt that most of the "bears" in this thread have any financial incentive influencing their comments in this thread. They're not actively rooting against Tesla, or TSLA shareholder's returns the way that "a short" might, but the responses from the "bulls" tend to imply that there's more ill will or malice than there actually is. I just don't want to see anybody get burned badly, and it seems like a few posters may be way out over their skis with their financial and emotional investment in TSLA.

Well stated.

I should say that I'm one of those folks rooting for TSLA to continue pushing the EV market forward, and I'm bullish on the company long-term as a going concern. I'm just not bullish on the stock as an investment. TSLA isn't a tech company, it's a car company.  Sorry, mounting a touch screen in a car doesn't change the fundamentals. Unlike select areas of the tech sector, the automotive industry is not a winner-takes-all market. In fact, the opposite dynamic is often in play, where certain demographics (especially at the high end) want vehicles that are less common (i.e. more exclusive).  Once a baseline of functionality is satisfied, and there are many car companies with EVs now that meet this criteria, the rest of the car purchasing decision for most people is emotional. Things like styling, handling, comfort, refinement, and brand identity all weigh heavily in the mind of the consumer. That last one should be very concerning to TSLA investors as the brand is currently taking a beating.

I also have a hard time accepting the claims of TSLA-perma-bulls. If a stock is a good investment on the way up, and while at the peak, and on the way down... I dunno, doesn't seem like a meaningful signal. Even a stopped watch is right twice a day.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2022, 10:10:16 AM by FINate »

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1476 on: December 21, 2022, 10:17:49 AM »
So, to be a bit real here, Tesla's stock is way down. But there is downward pressure on all stocks, indexes down 20% YTD, with Nasdaq down 33% - so that needs to be factored in. Telsa value shot up way too far/fast last half of 2021 so something of a pullback only made sense, even if the market as a whole did not. Now there is additional downward pressure due to Musk antics on twitter, and perhaps the perception he is doing nothing to lead tesla at all at the moment.

To me, this is a buying opportunity and I am buying. While I have a lot of confidence in Tesla and their products, I do worry about Musk's social influence. Could his 180 in politics and affiliations bring in new Tesla customers? I'm not convinced! They don't even beleive in climate change or harmful health effects of air pollution! But it is possible, I suppose.....Does he have a strategy here? Is this deliberate? Is he as unhinged as he seems to me? I really don't know, and neither does anyone else, I'm sure! Sometimes, I think he's having a mental health crisis to be honest.....

But the company I feel is solid, last 7 quarters of EPS have been positive surprises from analyst predictions.......and I for one am happy that the stock has experienced a lot of downward pressure on the price right now.....giving an opportunity to stock up a little bit, and to feel more confident it isn't over priced.

I'm also stocking up heavily on indexes in 401k, and will start with ibonds in January again...so, I don't get what the big deal is at all. Some of us think Tesla will do very well going forward, others don't.

But there is no argument to be 'won' here. 3-5 years out tesla perfomance will be the determinate.

May be you are obsessed with Tesla little too much?

Sounds like you invested between 70K - 100K in tesla stock and may be lost half of that so far and continue to buy more.
And bought a compact Tesla car for 50-60K, that does same function that a 15K car does.

Unless you have millions dollars in investments that is too much in one stock.

Tesla is big daddy of meme stocks. Its success so far is due to people not selling it no matter what. I think that brand has been damaged for good by EM, long term it is not a safe bet.

Be careful not catching falling knife. Be aware of sunk-cost fallacy.

Always good advice, I will think hard on it. Have been, honestly!! I am only putting small amounts of new money into tesla, after 401k into stock indexes and most of my taxable going towards bonds.

If tesla was just a car company, I'd be a bit less optimistic on their future growth in the near term. Overall, new car sales are expected to softed as/if the expected recession continues.

Now, how gas prices may change and how that effects the EV market I think is less clear. Could be a push that way if gas gets very expensive. For automotive sales, then there is the cybertruck orders that are on a 3 year wait to fill existing reservations. Some may cancel, too true! but that will be seen over time......

One thing I read that was not discussed here (at least I didn't see it!) is that if the new car market softens considerable, that the legacy automakers could pivot away from EVs as they are currently not making money on them and focus on the ICE cars they do make money. It's an interesting suggestion, and I can't recall where I may have read that.

But I think the energy side of the business has enormous upside, but how that might be influenced.....positive or negative....by a recession, or prolonged recession, I can't predict.

For me personally - my next vehicle was always going to be a tesla. I've been planning on that for a while. That preceeded my foray into buying their stock. My reason for that wasn't because it was a luxury type vehicle. It wasn't just because it was an EV. It was because it was from an exclusively EV manufacturer deliberately trying to shift the narative on new cars and the environment. That is what gets my purchasing money. When I was first hearing about tesla, you know the narative is "can you afford to buy it?" and my narative is "can I afford NOT to buy it?" Thinking of the world, the future, climate issues, air pollution (one of my children has asthma.....we used to live near an expressway.....).

Adding in an additional FU to the haggling dealership model that I've had all bad experiences with, was just icing on the cake. Trying to get a car at a dealership as a young single woman 20 years ago was one of the worse, most manipulative feeling experiences of my life. Anything I can do put a bullet in the model is sweet music to my ears.

Similarly my next roof will be tesla, again my question is can I afford NOT to buy it? Given the world........and I've always hated the look of solar panel on a roof and didn't think there would be any alternative. Then I saw this! Was so thrilled for it! It was definitely going to be my next roof! I will get powerwalls for energy security. I will get as close to self sufficient in energy as I can, my perspective is that anyone who could possible go that route must for everyone's future. And tesla seems to me to be the best way to do that.

So my consumerism came first, and then I bought the stock because I see this as really being what the future needs. Was it over valued, sure, maybe? Will it bounce back tomorrow? Probably not.

But I think 3 years from now these shares will be well worth the volatity of now. And if not - I'll have sufficient funds in the indexes for myself.

I may have to work an extra year if they don't bounce back! But I was probably going to have to work an extra year anyway......so.....kind of not a change to my mind.

But back to my new car!!! Word on the street is expected lifespan is about 300k miles, so this will do me for quite some time. Get the tesla roof and powerwalls and my car will be powered from my resources.....soooo looking forward to that!

And my financial projections on the tesla roof actually show it to be a wash, While it will be a bit pricey to do, it also lowers the amount of stache needed by a nearly equivalent amount. So almost like the roof - which was needed anyway! Came along for nearly nothing....

Just a projection of course. maybe it will work out more or less favorably on the finance side. On the environmental side, I think it's no contest.

« Last Edit: December 21, 2022, 10:20:22 AM by mistymoney »

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1477 on: December 21, 2022, 10:29:57 AM »
So, to be a bit real here, Tesla's stock is way down. But there is downward pressure on all stocks, indexes down 20% YTD, with Nasdaq down 33% - so that needs to be factored in. Telsa value shot up way too far/fast last half of 2021 so something of a pullback only made sense, even if the market as a whole did not. Now there is additional downward pressure due to Musk antics on twitter, and perhaps the perception he is doing nothing to lead tesla at all at the moment.

To me, this is a buying opportunity and I am buying. While I have a lot of confidence in Tesla and their products, I do worry about Musk's social influence. Could his 180 in politics and affiliations bring in new Tesla customers? I'm not convinced! They don't even beleive in climate change or harmful health effects of air pollution! But it is possible, I suppose.....Does he have a strategy here? Is this deliberate? Is he as unhinged as he seems to me? I really don't know, and neither does anyone else, I'm sure! Sometimes, I think he's having a mental health crisis to be honest.....

But the company I feel is solid, last 7 quarters of EPS have been positive surprises from analyst predictions.......and I for one am happy that the stock has experienced a lot of downward pressure on the price right now.....giving an opportunity to stock up a little bit, and to feel more confident it isn't over priced.

I'm also stocking up heavily on indexes in 401k, and will start with ibonds in January again...so, I don't get what the big deal is at all. Some of us think Tesla will do very well going forward, others don't.

But there is no argument to be 'won' here. 3-5 years out tesla perfomance will be the determinate.

May be you are obsessed with Tesla little too much?

Sounds like you invested between 70K - 100K in tesla stock and may be lost half of that so far and continue to buy more.
And bought a compact Tesla car for 50-60K, that does same function that a 15K car does.

Unless you have millions dollars in investments that is too much in one stock.

Tesla is big daddy of meme stocks. Its success so far is due to people not selling it no matter what. I think that brand has been damaged for good by EM, long term it is not a safe bet.

Be careful not catching falling knife. Be aware of sunk-cost fallacy.

To address other points in this posts:

My initial investment in tesla was 68.3k, the current loss is 26.8k. Purchases since then have not been as large. and kind of sprinkled around both time and account, so a little harder to easily quantify, and definitely just a fraction of the above.

Not sure what your understanding of the tesla model 3 is, but I'd like clarification on a 2022 car for 15k that is comparable?

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1478 on: December 21, 2022, 10:36:25 AM »
This thread has become a dichotomy of Bulls and Bears, and I don't see a bunch from either side that indicates an honest, moderate outlook without emotion.

How about this from a longtime Tesla critic:

Tesla is a much more attractive investment now than it was a year ago, when it was a laughably bad investment with a three-figure PE ratio for a capital-intensive heavy industry dependent upon subsidies. A PE of around 30-35 might be reasonable for a stock that 5x'd its operating cash flow in 4 years, and more than 10x'd its net income in the past 2 years. Tesla is down to a PE of 42 now. Someone who likes to catch falling knives as much as I do could sell a 30-day put at $125 for $6.70 and lower their cost basis to $118.30, which would be 37x earnings. I won't be doing that before the recession, but at some point such a stunt will make sense.

Similarly, bagholders can use covered calls to partially dig themselves out, unless true belief gets in the way.

FINate

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1479 on: December 21, 2022, 10:36:33 AM »
For me personally - my next vehicle was always going to be a tesla. I've been planning on that for a while. That preceeded my foray into buying their stock. My reason for that wasn't because it was a luxury type vehicle. It wasn't just because it was an EV. It was because it was from an exclusively EV manufacturer deliberately trying to shift the narative on new cars and the environment. That is what gets my purchasing money. When I was first hearing about tesla, you know the narative is "can you afford to buy it?" and my narative is "can I afford NOT to buy it?" Thinking of the world, the future, climate issues, air pollution (one of my children has asthma.....we used to live near an expressway.....).

If you don't care about the luxury aspects, the Bolt has essentially the same range as the Model 3 standard edition, but at less than half the price ($26k vs $54k).

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1480 on: December 21, 2022, 11:14:08 AM »
For me personally - my next vehicle was always going to be a tesla. I've been planning on that for a while. That preceeded my foray into buying their stock. My reason for that wasn't because it was a luxury type vehicle. It wasn't just because it was an EV. It was because it was from an exclusively EV manufacturer deliberately trying to shift the narative on new cars and the environment. That is what gets my purchasing money. When I was first hearing about tesla, you know the narative is "can you afford to buy it?" and my narative is "can I afford NOT to buy it?" Thinking of the world, the future, climate issues, air pollution (one of my children has asthma.....we used to live near an expressway.....).

If you don't care about the luxury aspects, the Bolt has essentially the same range as the Model 3 standard edition, but at less than half the price ($26k vs $54k).

way to ignore almost everything I said about my rationale.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1481 on: December 21, 2022, 11:14:55 AM »
This thread is almost 5 years old. The bears have been wrong all along and missed out on gigantic gains. Some bears say they have TSLA in their index funds and so they are set. But if they're so negative on TSLA, they should just short the stock or at least short enough to offset their TSLA in their index funds. After all, there is no point in holding a stock when you're so sure of the gloom and doom. Bulls always put their money where their mouth is.

The thread is about whether TSLA is a good investment or not. That can change over time as macro environments change, competition changes, and the company itself changes. If you bought at the right time, TSLA certainly has been a good investment. That doesn't necessarily mean that it currently is. Tesla now is a much different company than it was 5+ years ago. They resemble a traditional carmaker more and more with each passing day of growth. If you bought a house at the right time in the last 10 years that's probably seen huge gains in value on paper as well. That doesn't mean that now is the right time to buy more homes, or for an outsider to buy in. The value of any asset at a given time is dependent on many factors.

If Elon's outside interests can have significant impacts on the share price and investor return, then the share price isn't based solely on business fundamentals. Basing decisions entirely on those fundamentals seems a bit myopic or dismissive of the outside risks unrelated to the company's performance at all. The stock has been boosted in the past by some amount of irrational support for Elon, and seems to be seeing some amount of erosion due to Elon's antics in recent months. We can argue about how much impact that emotion has had/is having but I think it's easy to see that it's played some role in the value of the stock, and is likely to continue. Not every investor is rational. There's a speculative nature about TSLA that is much higher than other individual stocks simply because the leader is so high profile, and the stock's value can change on the whims of Elon's twitter fingers or what he does in his other companies.

You conveniently left out the part where I said "Tesla's sales can be affected by the following: 2022 end year sales due to the upcoming IRA; Covid spread in China; high interest rates; possible recession; Elon+Twitter, but competition is not one of the factors." The main argument of the bears has  been "the competition is coming". Tesla can have problems but it's not because of the competition, at least not for a long time.

Ok. We have many TSLA bulls in this thread that are adamant that because it's been a great investment, that it will continue to be a great investment. They often bring up business fundamentals as justification for the share price if people question their optimism, and then they pretty much handwave any impacts from investor sentiment as if that hasn't played a role thus far, and cannot in the future. It's fine to speculate on an individual stock, and for those who've taken the chance on TSLA, they've probably been rewarded pretty well. But TSLA seems to be more impacted by sentiment than most other individual stocks, so that should be a consideration for anybody holding the stock or anybody who reads this thread and may be considering new investment. I think it's key for anybody investing in an individual stock to have a clearly defined plan for divesting from that position, and all I ever really read in this thread is irrational exuberance about buying the dip, or holding for decades, or spending six figures to fully encase oneself in the entire Tesla ecosystem. It's obvious that many of the frequent TSLA supporters are not just financially invested, but also emotionally invested in the company and that seems potentially dangerous to me.

This thread has become a dichotomy of Bulls and Bears, and I don't see a bunch from either side that indicates an honest, moderate outlook without emotion. Tesla the company has come a tremendously long way in recent years. I've been proven wrong. The stock has exploded for a number of reasons. That doesn't mean that every idea they have is great, or that there are no valid criticisms of their products, or that past performance guarantees future results. Just because somebody has concern about an investment, or criticism for a company does not mean that they don't want to see it succeed. I very seriously doubt that most of the "bears" in this thread have any financial incentive influencing their comments in this thread. They're not actively rooting against Tesla, or TSLA shareholder's returns the way that "a short" might, but the responses from the "bulls" tend to imply that there's more ill will or malice than there actually is. I just don't want to see anybody get burned badly, and it seems like a few posters may be way out over their skis with their financial and emotional investment in TSLA.

People put their money where they want to put their money. Investment, purchases, etc.

It's actually kind of gross to me for you to imply that your posting here is something akin to a public service because you don't want to "see anybody get burned badly". Eveyone can decide for themselves what they are going to do.

Putin could go crazy and launch nukes tomorrow and the great depression becomes an idylic memory of a lovely time......and we'd all have to live through it....if we were lucky.

I just don't buy being concerned about someone else choices as a valid posting impetus. Unless someone is actively asking for advice.

Which, coincidentally, I did invite commentary on the numbers from tdameritrade I posted, and almost nobody picked it up.

FINate

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1482 on: December 21, 2022, 11:29:06 AM »
For me personally - my next vehicle was always going to be a tesla. I've been planning on that for a while. That preceeded my foray into buying their stock. My reason for that wasn't because it was a luxury type vehicle. It wasn't just because it was an EV. It was because it was from an exclusively EV manufacturer deliberately trying to shift the narative on new cars and the environment. That is what gets my purchasing money. When I was first hearing about tesla, you know the narative is "can you afford to buy it?" and my narative is "can I afford NOT to buy it?" Thinking of the world, the future, climate issues, air pollution (one of my children has asthma.....we used to live near an expressway.....).

If you don't care about the luxury aspects, the Bolt has essentially the same range as the Model 3 standard edition, but at less than half the price ($26k vs $54k).

way to ignore almost everything I said about my rationale.

??? Tesla isn't the only one trying to shift the narrative on cars and the environment. GM (the maker of the Bolt) plans to sell only zero emissions vehicles by 2035 and reach carbon neutrality by 2040. That's huge! GM is also installing 40,000 chargers in rural areas which will go a long way in helping adoption of EVs outside of urban areas.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1483 on: December 21, 2022, 11:47:26 AM »
For me personally - my next vehicle was always going to be a tesla. I've been planning on that for a while. That preceeded my foray into buying their stock. My reason for that wasn't because it was a luxury type vehicle. It wasn't just because it was an EV. It was because it was from an exclusively EV manufacturer deliberately trying to shift the narative on new cars and the environment. That is what gets my purchasing money. When I was first hearing about tesla, you know the narative is "can you afford to buy it?" and my narative is "can I afford NOT to buy it?" Thinking of the world, the future, climate issues, air pollution (one of my children has asthma.....we used to live near an expressway.....).


And my financial projections on the tesla roof actually show it to be a wash, While it will be a bit pricey to do, it also lowers the amount of stache needed by a nearly equivalent amount. So almost like the roof - which was needed anyway! Came along for nearly nothing....

Just a projection of course. maybe it will work out more or less favorably on the finance side. On the environmental side, I think it's no contest.

If environmental impact is truly a consideration, I'd strongly advise that you put some thought (and a little math) into whether hoarding a whole bunch of KWH of LiIon battery capacity that's rarely used to it's full capacity is truly the best option moving forward.

All of that battery production has a significant environmental impact. This is accepted. The initial footprint can be overcome in an EV as miles are driven (the exact break even point depends on tons of factors), but the premise is that EVs have a larger production impact, and a smaller impact while they're consuming.

So, with that understanding, I think it's logical to assume that EV ownership will reduce your individual impact at some point. The more you drive (consume) the sooner that will occur. But if reducing your individual impact means that fewer people get to see the benefits, then it may not be the best path forward from a societal, planet wide perspective.

Lets say your Model 3 has ~80 kwh of battery capacity, and 350 miles of all-electric range. If you drive 15k miles per year, and previously had an ICE car, you replaced 15k miles of ICE driving with 15k miles of cleaner EV driving. This is good from an individual perspective! But the resources used for an 80kwh LiIon battery are pretty scarce these days. If we split that same amount of raw battery materials among multiple PHEVs (lets say 20 kwh each) that can get ~50 miles of electric range and then use the ICE. If those owners also drive 15k each per year, and say ~80% of those miles are driven in EV mode, then each one drives 12k miles in electric mode, and 3k under ICE power. So with the same amount of rare raw materials, you'd get 48k EV miles per year vs 15k EV miles in the single long-range EV. So your Model 3 is responsible for 300k EV miles of driving over 20 years (which is fine) instead of the same amount of resources going toward 4 PHEVs that could drive 960k EV miles in that same 20 year period. Now add a couple of Powerwalls @ 10kwh of resources per unit that can no longer be put to better use, and the difference in impact grows even more.

By sequestering all of these limited resources into applications that rarely use their full capacity, you may be improving your individual impact, while also hurting the chances for wider spread societal change. You're trying to clean up your consumption (which is admirable) rather than reducing it. We cannot consume our way toward a better, healthier planet. All of these BEVs, solar panels, battery backups, etc take a whole bunch of not-great effort to manufacture, and they only pay off with a bunch of use (consumption). At the very least, as a society we need to be using limited resources as efficiently as we can if we hope to have maximum impact in minimal time.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1484 on: December 21, 2022, 11:52:11 AM »
For me personally - my next vehicle was always going to be a tesla. I've been planning on that for a while. That preceeded my foray into buying their stock. My reason for that wasn't because it was a luxury type vehicle. It wasn't just because it was an EV. It was because it was from an exclusively EV manufacturer deliberately trying to shift the narative on new cars and the environment. That is what gets my purchasing money. When I was first hearing about tesla, you know the narative is "can you afford to buy it?" and my narative is "can I afford NOT to buy it?" Thinking of the world, the future, climate issues, air pollution (one of my children has asthma.....we used to live near an expressway.....).

If you don't care about the luxury aspects, the Bolt has essentially the same range as the Model 3 standard edition, but at less than half the price ($26k vs $54k).

way to ignore almost everything I said about my rationale.

??? Tesla isn't the only one trying to shift the narrative on cars and the environment. GM (the maker of the Bolt) plans to sell only zero emissions vehicles by 2035 and reach carbon neutrality by 2040. That's huge! GM is also installing 40,000 chargers in rural areas which will go a long way in helping adoption of EVs outside of urban areas.

by 2035? ok, let's see them do it.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1485 on: December 21, 2022, 11:58:26 AM »
For me personally - my next vehicle was always going to be a tesla. I've been planning on that for a while. That preceeded my foray into buying their stock. My reason for that wasn't because it was a luxury type vehicle. It wasn't just because it was an EV. It was because it was from an exclusively EV manufacturer deliberately trying to shift the narative on new cars and the environment. That is what gets my purchasing money. When I was first hearing about tesla, you know the narative is "can you afford to buy it?" and my narative is "can I afford NOT to buy it?" Thinking of the world, the future, climate issues, air pollution (one of my children has asthma.....we used to live near an expressway.....).


And my financial projections on the tesla roof actually show it to be a wash, While it will be a bit pricey to do, it also lowers the amount of stache needed by a nearly equivalent amount. So almost like the roof - which was needed anyway! Came along for nearly nothing....

Just a projection of course. maybe it will work out more or less favorably on the finance side. On the environmental side, I think it's no contest.

If environmental impact is truly a consideration, I'd strongly advise that you put some thought (and a little math) into whether hoarding a whole bunch of KWH of LiIon battery capacity that's rarely used to it's full capacity is truly the best option moving forward.

All of that battery production has a significant environmental impact. This is accepted. The initial footprint can be overcome in an EV as miles are driven (the exact break even point depends on tons of factors), but the premise is that EVs have a larger production impact, and a smaller impact while they're consuming.

So, with that understanding, I think it's logical to assume that EV ownership will reduce your individual impact at some point. The more you drive (consume) the sooner that will occur. But if reducing your individual impact means that fewer people get to see the benefits, then it may not be the best path forward from a societal, planet wide perspective.

Lets say your Model 3 has ~80 kwh of battery capacity, and 350 miles of all-electric range. If you drive 15k miles per year, and previously had an ICE car, you replaced 15k miles of ICE driving with 15k miles of cleaner EV driving. This is good from an individual perspective! But the resources used for an 80kwh LiIon battery are pretty scarce these days. If we split that same amount of raw battery materials among multiple PHEVs (lets say 20 kwh each) that can get ~50 miles of electric range and then use the ICE. If those owners also drive 15k each per year, and say ~80% of those miles are driven in EV mode, then each one drives 12k miles in electric mode, and 3k under ICE power. So with the same amount of rare raw materials, you'd get 48k EV miles per year vs 15k EV miles in the single long-range EV. So your Model 3 is responsible for 300k EV miles of driving over 20 years (which is fine) instead of the same amount of resources going toward 4 PHEVs that could drive 960k EV miles in that same 20 year period. Now add a couple of Powerwalls @ 10kwh of resources per unit that can no longer be put to better use, and the difference in impact grows even more.

By sequestering all of these limited resources into applications that rarely use their full capacity, you may be improving your individual impact, while also hurting the chances for wider spread societal change. You're trying to clean up your consumption (which is admirable) rather than reducing it. We cannot consume our way toward a better, healthier planet. All of these BEVs, solar panels, battery backups, etc take a whole bunch of not-great effort to manufacture, and they only pay off with a bunch of use (consumption). At the very least, as a society we need to be using limited resources as efficiently as we can if we hope to have maximum impact in minimal time.

I'm not claiming environmental perfection nor applying for sainthood.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1486 on: December 21, 2022, 12:10:24 PM »
Ok. We have many TSLA bulls in this thread that are adamant that because it's been a great investment, that it will continue to be a great investment. They often bring up business fundamentals as justification for the share price if people question their optimism, and then they pretty much handwave any impacts from investor sentiment as if that hasn't played a role thus far, and cannot in the future. It's fine to speculate on an individual stock, and for those who've taken the chance on TSLA, they've probably been rewarded pretty well. But TSLA seems to be more impacted by sentiment than most other individual stocks, so that should be a consideration for anybody holding the stock or anybody who reads this thread and may be considering new investment. I think it's key for anybody investing in an individual stock to have a clearly defined plan for divesting from that position, and all I ever really read in this thread is irrational exuberance about buying the dip, or holding for decades, or spending six figures to fully encase oneself in the entire Tesla ecosystem. It's obvious that many of the frequent TSLA supporters are not just financially invested, but also emotionally invested in the company and that seems potentially dangerous to me.

This thread has become a dichotomy of Bulls and Bears, and I don't see a bunch from either side that indicates an honest, moderate outlook without emotion. Tesla the company has come a tremendously long way in recent years. I've been proven wrong. The stock has exploded for a number of reasons. That doesn't mean that every idea they have is great, or that there are no valid criticisms of their products, or that past performance guarantees future results. Just because somebody has concern about an investment, or criticism for a company does not mean that they don't want to see it succeed. I very seriously doubt that most of the "bears" in this thread have any financial incentive influencing their comments in this thread. They're not actively rooting against Tesla, or TSLA shareholder's returns the way that "a short" might, but the responses from the "bulls" tend to imply that there's more ill will or malice than there actually is. I just don't want to see anybody get burned badly, and it seems like a few posters may be way out over their skis with their financial and emotional investment in TSLA.

People put their money where they want to put their money. Investment, purchases, etc.

It's actually kind of gross to me for you to imply that your posting here is something akin to a public service because you don't want to "see anybody get burned badly". Eveyone can decide for themselves what they are going to do.

Putin could go crazy and launch nukes tomorrow and the great depression becomes an idylic memory of a lovely time......and we'd all have to live through it....if we were lucky.

I just don't buy being concerned about someone else choices as a valid posting impetus. Unless someone is actively asking for advice.

Which, coincidentally, I did invite commentary on the numbers from tdameritrade I posted, and almost nobody picked it up.

Ok, so then what do you consider to be an acceptable motivation for a person to question or criticize TSLA as an investment?
Is any criticism of the company or the stock's relative value at a given time acceptable?
It's not as if I'm the only one suggesting that you and others may be too invested in this company. Why would multiple people on the internet say anything at all about it unless their motivation were similar? We could just keep our thoughts to ourselves but then this place becomes an echo chamber of cheerleading instead of a place for thoughtful, respectful discussion. As a society I think we've already gone far enough in that direction.

If a respectful but dissenting opinion isn't welcome here, then you can have the floor. I'll leave the cheerleaders to do what they do. Hopefully your TSLA holdings work out for you, but the stock picking and greenwashed consumption traits that are frequently exhibited in this thread are kind of counter to a lot of core MMM principals in my opinion. I'll leave the thread with some final thoughts for the collective:
Reduce your consumption, rather than just trying to clean it up. Fix your old stuff and use the hell out of it instead of replacing it. Do your best to be rational and logical about choices rather than emotional, or at the very least be aware of the ways that your sub-optimal choices impact yourself and others so that you may be as informed as possible. Enjoy your thread everyone.

achvfi

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1487 on: December 21, 2022, 12:28:12 PM »
So, to be a bit real here, Tesla's stock is way down. But there is downward pressure on all stocks, indexes down 20% YTD, with Nasdaq down 33% - so that needs to be factored in. Telsa value shot up way too far/fast last half of 2021 so something of a pullback only made sense, even if the market as a whole did not. Now there is additional downward pressure due to Musk antics on twitter, and perhaps the perception he is doing nothing to lead tesla at all at the moment.

To me, this is a buying opportunity and I am buying. While I have a lot of confidence in Tesla and their products, I do worry about Musk's social influence. Could his 180 in politics and affiliations bring in new Tesla customers? I'm not convinced! They don't even beleive in climate change or harmful health effects of air pollution! But it is possible, I suppose.....Does he have a strategy here? Is this deliberate? Is he as unhinged as he seems to me? I really don't know, and neither does anyone else, I'm sure! Sometimes, I think he's having a mental health crisis to be honest.....

But the company I feel is solid, last 7 quarters of EPS have been positive surprises from analyst predictions.......and I for one am happy that the stock has experienced a lot of downward pressure on the price right now.....giving an opportunity to stock up a little bit, and to feel more confident it isn't over priced.

I'm also stocking up heavily on indexes in 401k, and will start with ibonds in January again...so, I don't get what the big deal is at all. Some of us think Tesla will do very well going forward, others don't.

But there is no argument to be 'won' here. 3-5 years out tesla perfomance will be the determinate.

May be you are obsessed with Tesla little too much?

Sounds like you invested between 70K - 100K in tesla stock and may be lost half of that so far and continue to buy more.
And bought a compact Tesla car for 50-60K, that does same function that a 15K car does.

Unless you have millions dollars in investments that is too much in one stock.

Tesla is big daddy of meme stocks. Its success so far is due to people not selling it no matter what. I think that brand has been damaged for good by EM, long term it is not a safe bet.

Be careful not catching falling knife. Be aware of sunk-cost fallacy.

Always good advice, I will think hard on it. Have been, honestly!! I am only putting small amounts of new money into tesla, after 401k into stock indexes and most of my taxable going towards bonds.

If tesla was just a car company, I'd be a bit less optimistic on their future growth in the near term. Overall, new car sales are expected to softed as/if the expected recession continues.

Now, how gas prices may change and how that effects the EV market I think is less clear. Could be a push that way if gas gets very expensive. For automotive sales, then there is the cybertruck orders that are on a 3 year wait to fill existing reservations. Some may cancel, too true! but that will be seen over time......

One thing I read that was not discussed here (at least I didn't see it!) is that if the new car market softens considerable, that the legacy automakers could pivot away from EVs as they are currently not making money on them and focus on the ICE cars they do make money. It's an interesting suggestion, and I can't recall where I may have read that.

But I think the energy side of the business has enormous upside, but how that might be influenced.....positive or negative....by a recession, or prolonged recession, I can't predict.

For me personally - my next vehicle was always going to be a tesla. I've been planning on that for a while. That preceeded my foray into buying their stock. My reason for that wasn't because it was a luxury type vehicle. It wasn't just because it was an EV. It was because it was from an exclusively EV manufacturer deliberately trying to shift the narative on new cars and the environment. That is what gets my purchasing money. When I was first hearing about tesla, you know the narative is "can you afford to buy it?" and my narative is "can I afford NOT to buy it?" Thinking of the world, the future, climate issues, air pollution (one of my children has asthma.....we used to live near an expressway.....).

Adding in an additional FU to the haggling dealership model that I've had all bad experiences with, was just icing on the cake. Trying to get a car at a dealership as a young single woman 20 years ago was one of the worse, most manipulative feeling experiences of my life. Anything I can do put a bullet in the model is sweet music to my ears.

Similarly my next roof will be tesla, again my question is can I afford NOT to buy it? Given the world........and I've always hated the look of solar panel on a roof and didn't think there would be any alternative. Then I saw this! Was so thrilled for it! It was definitely going to be my next roof! I will get powerwalls for energy security. I will get as close to self sufficient in energy as I can, my perspective is that anyone who could possible go that route must for everyone's future. And tesla seems to me to be the best way to do that.

So my consumerism came first, and then I bought the stock because I see this as really being what the future needs. Was it over valued, sure, maybe? Will it bounce back tomorrow? Probably not.

But I think 3 years from now these shares will be well worth the volatity of now. And if not - I'll have sufficient funds in the indexes for myself.

I may have to work an extra year if they don't bounce back! But I was probably going to have to work an extra year anyway......so.....kind of not a change to my mind.

But back to my new car!!! Word on the street is expected lifespan is about 300k miles, so this will do me for quite some time. Get the tesla roof and powerwalls and my car will be powered from my resources.....soooo looking forward to that!

And my financial projections on the tesla roof actually show it to be a wash, While it will be a bit pricey to do, it also lowers the amount of stache needed by a nearly equivalent amount. So almost like the roof - which was needed anyway! Came along for nearly nothing....

Just a projection of course. maybe it will work out more or less favorably on the finance side. On the environmental side, I think it's no contest.

Sorry, it seems worse than I thought. So you are planning to spend another 100 grand on tesla products.

Tesla doesn't need your dollars to survive, they have raised over 20 billion dollars in equity.



mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1488 on: December 21, 2022, 12:37:15 PM »
Ok. We have many TSLA bulls in this thread that are adamant that because it's been a great investment, that it will continue to be a great investment. They often bring up business fundamentals as justification for the share price if people question their optimism, and then they pretty much handwave any impacts from investor sentiment as if that hasn't played a role thus far, and cannot in the future. It's fine to speculate on an individual stock, and for those who've taken the chance on TSLA, they've probably been rewarded pretty well. But TSLA seems to be more impacted by sentiment than most other individual stocks, so that should be a consideration for anybody holding the stock or anybody who reads this thread and may be considering new investment. I think it's key for anybody investing in an individual stock to have a clearly defined plan for divesting from that position, and all I ever really read in this thread is irrational exuberance about buying the dip, or holding for decades, or spending six figures to fully encase oneself in the entire Tesla ecosystem. It's obvious that many of the frequent TSLA supporters are not just financially invested, but also emotionally invested in the company and that seems potentially dangerous to me.

This thread has become a dichotomy of Bulls and Bears, and I don't see a bunch from either side that indicates an honest, moderate outlook without emotion. Tesla the company has come a tremendously long way in recent years. I've been proven wrong. The stock has exploded for a number of reasons. That doesn't mean that every idea they have is great, or that there are no valid criticisms of their products, or that past performance guarantees future results. Just because somebody has concern about an investment, or criticism for a company does not mean that they don't want to see it succeed. I very seriously doubt that most of the "bears" in this thread have any financial incentive influencing their comments in this thread. They're not actively rooting against Tesla, or TSLA shareholder's returns the way that "a short" might, but the responses from the "bulls" tend to imply that there's more ill will or malice than there actually is. I just don't want to see anybody get burned badly, and it seems like a few posters may be way out over their skis with their financial and emotional investment in TSLA.

People put their money where they want to put their money. Investment, purchases, etc.

It's actually kind of gross to me for you to imply that your posting here is something akin to a public service because you don't want to "see anybody get burned badly". Eveyone can decide for themselves what they are going to do.

Putin could go crazy and launch nukes tomorrow and the great depression becomes an idylic memory of a lovely time......and we'd all have to live through it....if we were lucky.

I just don't buy being concerned about someone else choices as a valid posting impetus. Unless someone is actively asking for advice.

Which, coincidentally, I did invite commentary on the numbers from tdameritrade I posted, and almost nobody picked it up.

Ok, so then what do you consider to be an acceptable motivation for a person to question or criticize TSLA as an investment?
Is any criticism of the company or the stock's relative value at a given time acceptable?
It's not as if I'm the only one suggesting that you and others may be too invested in this company. Why would multiple people on the internet say anything at all about it unless their motivation were similar? We could just keep our thoughts to ourselves but then this place becomes an echo chamber of cheerleading instead of a place for thoughtful, respectful discussion. As a society I think we've already gone far enough in that direction.

If a respectful but dissenting opinion isn't welcome here, then you can have the floor. I'll leave the cheerleaders to do what they do. Hopefully your TSLA holdings work out for you, but the stock picking and greenwashed consumption traits that are frequently exhibited in this thread are kind of counter to a lot of core MMM principals in my opinion. I'll leave the thread with some final thoughts for the collective:
Reduce your consumption, rather than just trying to clean it up. Fix your old stuff and use the hell out of it instead of replacing it. Do your best to be rational and logical about choices rather than emotional, or at the very least be aware of the ways that your sub-optimal choices impact yourself and others so that you may be as informed as possible. Enjoy your thread everyone.

Criticize away! Elon is a pig and could bring the whole thing to ruin alienating the entire customer base just being a jerk. Cities across the globe may follow Paris and eliminate nearly all vehicular traffic, pump up public transport, and make urban vehicles a thing of the past. Maybe there is an Enron situation happening at tesla? Someone could scoop the whole autotaxi thing and tesla just twists in the wind for airing their good ideas and not bringing to market before someone else. Anything could happen! Unfortunately, putin and bombs are a little more likely than some of these.....

But there is a difference between posting criticism of the company, and saying you are trying to save people from their own decisions. Do you understand that difference?

If there is anyone here that would appreciate that, let them step forward and claim it. For myself, it is unwelcome. That has nothing to do with criticism of tesla. I'm not here for someone to "save me from burning". I enjoy the discussion, I like the disparate POVs - but I make my decisions and sorry if that actually offends some people! you do you! But I must do me.

If the money I invested in tesla burns, I will deal with that. If the car burn, I'm going to go after them for recompense!  If the planet burns, then I will point the finger at more wasteful consumers than myself, for sure. :P

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1489 on: December 21, 2022, 12:39:08 PM »
So, to be a bit real here, Tesla's stock is way down. But there is downward pressure on all stocks, indexes down 20% YTD, with Nasdaq down 33% - so that needs to be factored in. Telsa value shot up way too far/fast last half of 2021 so something of a pullback only made sense, even if the market as a whole did not. Now there is additional downward pressure due to Musk antics on twitter, and perhaps the perception he is doing nothing to lead tesla at all at the moment.

To me, this is a buying opportunity and I am buying. While I have a lot of confidence in Tesla and their products, I do worry about Musk's social influence. Could his 180 in politics and affiliations bring in new Tesla customers? I'm not convinced! They don't even beleive in climate change or harmful health effects of air pollution! But it is possible, I suppose.....Does he have a strategy here? Is this deliberate? Is he as unhinged as he seems to me? I really don't know, and neither does anyone else, I'm sure! Sometimes, I think he's having a mental health crisis to be honest.....

But the company I feel is solid, last 7 quarters of EPS have been positive surprises from analyst predictions.......and I for one am happy that the stock has experienced a lot of downward pressure on the price right now.....giving an opportunity to stock up a little bit, and to feel more confident it isn't over priced.

I'm also stocking up heavily on indexes in 401k, and will start with ibonds in January again...so, I don't get what the big deal is at all. Some of us think Tesla will do very well going forward, others don't.

But there is no argument to be 'won' here. 3-5 years out tesla perfomance will be the determinate.

May be you are obsessed with Tesla little too much?

Sounds like you invested between 70K - 100K in tesla stock and may be lost half of that so far and continue to buy more.
And bought a compact Tesla car for 50-60K, that does same function that a 15K car does.

Unless you have millions dollars in investments that is too much in one stock.

Tesla is big daddy of meme stocks. Its success so far is due to people not selling it no matter what. I think that brand has been damaged for good by EM, long term it is not a safe bet.

Be careful not catching falling knife. Be aware of sunk-cost fallacy.

Always good advice, I will think hard on it. Have been, honestly!! I am only putting small amounts of new money into tesla, after 401k into stock indexes and most of my taxable going towards bonds.

If tesla was just a car company, I'd be a bit less optimistic on their future growth in the near term. Overall, new car sales are expected to softed as/if the expected recession continues.

Now, how gas prices may change and how that effects the EV market I think is less clear. Could be a push that way if gas gets very expensive. For automotive sales, then there is the cybertruck orders that are on a 3 year wait to fill existing reservations. Some may cancel, too true! but that will be seen over time......

One thing I read that was not discussed here (at least I didn't see it!) is that if the new car market softens considerable, that the legacy automakers could pivot away from EVs as they are currently not making money on them and focus on the ICE cars they do make money. It's an interesting suggestion, and I can't recall where I may have read that.

But I think the energy side of the business has enormous upside, but how that might be influenced.....positive or negative....by a recession, or prolonged recession, I can't predict.

For me personally - my next vehicle was always going to be a tesla. I've been planning on that for a while. That preceeded my foray into buying their stock. My reason for that wasn't because it was a luxury type vehicle. It wasn't just because it was an EV. It was because it was from an exclusively EV manufacturer deliberately trying to shift the narative on new cars and the environment. That is what gets my purchasing money. When I was first hearing about tesla, you know the narative is "can you afford to buy it?" and my narative is "can I afford NOT to buy it?" Thinking of the world, the future, climate issues, air pollution (one of my children has asthma.....we used to live near an expressway.....).

Adding in an additional FU to the haggling dealership model that I've had all bad experiences with, was just icing on the cake. Trying to get a car at a dealership as a young single woman 20 years ago was one of the worse, most manipulative feeling experiences of my life. Anything I can do put a bullet in the model is sweet music to my ears.

Similarly my next roof will be tesla, again my question is can I afford NOT to buy it? Given the world........and I've always hated the look of solar panel on a roof and didn't think there would be any alternative. Then I saw this! Was so thrilled for it! It was definitely going to be my next roof! I will get powerwalls for energy security. I will get as close to self sufficient in energy as I can, my perspective is that anyone who could possible go that route must for everyone's future. And tesla seems to me to be the best way to do that.

So my consumerism came first, and then I bought the stock because I see this as really being what the future needs. Was it over valued, sure, maybe? Will it bounce back tomorrow? Probably not.

But I think 3 years from now these shares will be well worth the volatity of now. And if not - I'll have sufficient funds in the indexes for myself.

I may have to work an extra year if they don't bounce back! But I was probably going to have to work an extra year anyway......so.....kind of not a change to my mind.

But back to my new car!!! Word on the street is expected lifespan is about 300k miles, so this will do me for quite some time. Get the tesla roof and powerwalls and my car will be powered from my resources.....soooo looking forward to that!

And my financial projections on the tesla roof actually show it to be a wash, While it will be a bit pricey to do, it also lowers the amount of stache needed by a nearly equivalent amount. So almost like the roof - which was needed anyway! Came along for nearly nothing....

Just a projection of course. maybe it will work out more or less favorably on the finance side. On the environmental side, I think it's no contest.

Sorry, it seems worse than I thought. So you are planning to spend another 100 grand on tesla products.

Tesla doesn't need your dollars to survive, they have raised over 20 billion dollars in equity.

oh dear. did you think I wasn't allowed to buy what I want with my own money?

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1490 on: December 21, 2022, 01:19:36 PM »
and why would I buy stock in a company if I didn't find their products of value?

achvfi

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1491 on: December 21, 2022, 01:31:57 PM »
Sorry, it seems worse than I thought. So you are planning to spend another 100 grand on tesla products.

Tesla doesn't need your dollars to survive, they have raised over 20 billion dollars in equity.

oh dear. did you think I wasn't allowed to buy what I want with my own money?
Nope I don't think that.

It is not surprising. But very interesting how people can be suckered into spending big chunks of life savings on things that relatively change your life very little.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1492 on: December 21, 2022, 01:53:28 PM »
Ok. We have many TSLA bulls in this thread that are adamant that because it's been a great investment, that it will continue to be a great investment. They often bring up business fundamentals as justification for the share price if people question their optimism, and then they pretty much handwave any impacts from investor sentiment as if that hasn't played a role thus far, and cannot in the future. It's fine to speculate on an individual stock, and for those who've taken the chance on TSLA, they've probably been rewarded pretty well. But TSLA seems to be more impacted by sentiment than most other individual stocks, so that should be a consideration for anybody holding the stock or anybody who reads this thread and may be considering new investment. I think it's key for anybody investing in an individual stock to have a clearly defined plan for divesting from that position, and all I ever really read in this thread is irrational exuberance about buying the dip, or holding for decades, or spending six figures to fully encase oneself in the entire Tesla ecosystem. It's obvious that many of the frequent TSLA supporters are not just financially invested, but also emotionally invested in the company and that seems potentially dangerous to me.

This thread has become a dichotomy of Bulls and Bears, and I don't see a bunch from either side that indicates an honest, moderate outlook without emotion. Tesla the company has come a tremendously long way in recent years. I've been proven wrong. The stock has exploded for a number of reasons. That doesn't mean that every idea they have is great, or that there are no valid criticisms of their products, or that past performance guarantees future results. Just because somebody has concern about an investment, or criticism for a company does not mean that they don't want to see it succeed. I very seriously doubt that most of the "bears" in this thread have any financial incentive influencing their comments in this thread. They're not actively rooting against Tesla, or TSLA shareholder's returns the way that "a short" might, but the responses from the "bulls" tend to imply that there's more ill will or malice than there actually is. I just don't want to see anybody get burned badly, and it seems like a few posters may be way out over their skis with their financial and emotional investment in TSLA.

People put their money where they want to put their money. Investment, purchases, etc.

It's actually kind of gross to me for you to imply that your posting here is something akin to a public service because you don't want to "see anybody get burned badly". Eveyone can decide for themselves what they are going to do.

Putin could go crazy and launch nukes tomorrow and the great depression becomes an idylic memory of a lovely time......and we'd all have to live through it....if we were lucky.

I just don't buy being concerned about someone else choices as a valid posting impetus. Unless someone is actively asking for advice.

Which, coincidentally, I did invite commentary on the numbers from tdameritrade I posted, and almost nobody picked it up.

Ok, so then what do you consider to be an acceptable motivation for a person to question or criticize TSLA as an investment?
Is any criticism of the company or the stock's relative value at a given time acceptable?
It's not as if I'm the only one suggesting that you and others may be too invested in this company. Why would multiple people on the internet say anything at all about it unless their motivation were similar? We could just keep our thoughts to ourselves but then this place becomes an echo chamber of cheerleading instead of a place for thoughtful, respectful discussion. As a society I think we've already gone far enough in that direction.

If a respectful but dissenting opinion isn't welcome here, then you can have the floor. I'll leave the cheerleaders to do what they do. Hopefully your TSLA holdings work out for you, but the stock picking and greenwashed consumption traits that are frequently exhibited in this thread are kind of counter to a lot of core MMM principals in my opinion. I'll leave the thread with some final thoughts for the collective:
Reduce your consumption, rather than just trying to clean it up. Fix your old stuff and use the hell out of it instead of replacing it. Do your best to be rational and logical about choices rather than emotional, or at the very least be aware of the ways that your sub-optimal choices impact yourself and others so that you may be as informed as possible. Enjoy your thread everyone.

Criticize away! Elon is a pig and could bring the whole thing to ruin alienating the entire customer base just being a jerk. Cities across the globe may follow Paris and eliminate nearly all vehicular traffic, pump up public transport, and make urban vehicles a thing of the past. Maybe there is an Enron situation happening at tesla? Someone could scoop the whole autotaxi thing and tesla just twists in the wind for airing their good ideas and not bringing to market before someone else. Anything could happen! Unfortunately, putin and bombs are a little more likely than some of these.....

But there is a difference between posting criticism of the company, and saying you are trying to save people from their own decisions. Do you understand that difference?

If there is anyone here that would appreciate that, let them step forward and claim it. For myself, it is unwelcome. That has nothing to do with criticism of tesla. I'm not here for someone to "save me from burning". I enjoy the discussion, I like the disparate POVs - but I make my decisions and sorry if that actually offends some people! you do you! But I must do me.

If the money I invested in tesla burns, I will deal with that. If the car burn, I'm going to go after them for recompense!  If the planet burns, then I will point the finger at more wasteful consumers than myself, for sure. :P

I think you took some leaps to draw those conclusions based on my post. The fact that you took my post so personally should tell you everything you need to know about the amount of emotional investment that you have involved here. Best of luck with the investments.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1493 on: December 21, 2022, 02:11:10 PM »
Sorry, it seems worse than I thought. So you are planning to spend another 100 grand on tesla products.

Tesla doesn't need your dollars to survive, they have raised over 20 billion dollars in equity.

oh dear. did you think I wasn't allowed to buy what I want with my own money?
Nope I don't think that.

It is not surprising. But very interesting how people can be suckered into spending big chunks of life savings on things that relatively change your life very little.

I don't know if you think this supposedly subtle insulting of my choices is really all that subtle, or if you are intentionally being so because you don't have a real argument. My intention to get solar on my roof has been a goal for over 20 years, but I'd never been in the financial position to do it. Tesla has the look I prefer. If I didn't go with tesla, I'd be buying a new roof anyway, and solar panels, and backup storage from 2-3 different vendors. Tesla offers a much smoother and integrated process. It's a relief to find it so integrated, actually.

Do you think tesla has no real customers, or what? Do you think they came out with products no one was looking for and foisted it on them all? With their very clever lack of a marketing campaign? I was a tesla customer before tesla even existed, a decade even long before they ever started. I wasn't suckered into something - I found what I was looking for, and that wasn't available for many years.

So I think this is the third or so time I've explained this in this thread. I've put it out as helpful information for those who would never be tesla customers and maybe didn't understand a tesla customer. Again - just because you prefer pepsi and think the upcharge for coke is ridiculous and for "suckers", doesn't mean that the taste differential isn't worth it to those who prefer coke.

Speaking of soda - now that is for suckers - a completely made up 'necessity' that most households spend a fortune on with nothing to show, except maybe some dental or health detriments. 

In the grand scheme of things, spending 50k on a car is nothing. If it take me to 300k miles, will have been well worth it. Today, the heated seats and heated steering wheel were well worth the price! I didn't the little luxuries.....but I am enjoying them!

In my math, getting a tesla roof is financially neutral over the long haul. If you have other counters to that, that would be interesting. But just calling me a sucker for buying something I've been wanting for a few decades is not really very compelling.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1494 on: December 21, 2022, 02:48:34 PM »
Ok. We have many TSLA bulls in this thread that are adamant that because it's been a great investment, that it will continue to be a great investment. They often bring up business fundamentals as justification for the share price if people question their optimism, and then they pretty much handwave any impacts from investor sentiment as if that hasn't played a role thus far, and cannot in the future. It's fine to speculate on an individual stock, and for those who've taken the chance on TSLA, they've probably been rewarded pretty well. But TSLA seems to be more impacted by sentiment than most other individual stocks, so that should be a consideration for anybody holding the stock or anybody who reads this thread and may be considering new investment. I think it's key for anybody investing in an individual stock to have a clearly defined plan for divesting from that position, and all I ever really read in this thread is irrational exuberance about buying the dip, or holding for decades, or spending six figures to fully encase oneself in the entire Tesla ecosystem. It's obvious that many of the frequent TSLA supporters are not just financially invested, but also emotionally invested in the company and that seems potentially dangerous to me.

This thread has become a dichotomy of Bulls and Bears, and I don't see a bunch from either side that indicates an honest, moderate outlook without emotion. Tesla the company has come a tremendously long way in recent years. I've been proven wrong. The stock has exploded for a number of reasons. That doesn't mean that every idea they have is great, or that there are no valid criticisms of their products, or that past performance guarantees future results. Just because somebody has concern about an investment, or criticism for a company does not mean that they don't want to see it succeed. I very seriously doubt that most of the "bears" in this thread have any financial incentive influencing their comments in this thread. They're not actively rooting against Tesla, or TSLA shareholder's returns the way that "a short" might, but the responses from the "bulls" tend to imply that there's more ill will or malice than there actually is. I just don't want to see anybody get burned badly, and it seems like a few posters may be way out over their skis with their financial and emotional investment in TSLA.

People put their money where they want to put their money. Investment, purchases, etc.

It's actually kind of gross to me for you to imply that your posting here is something akin to a public service because you don't want to "see anybody get burned badly". Eveyone can decide for themselves what they are going to do.

Putin could go crazy and launch nukes tomorrow and the great depression becomes an idylic memory of a lovely time......and we'd all have to live through it....if we were lucky.

I just don't buy being concerned about someone else choices as a valid posting impetus. Unless someone is actively asking for advice.

Which, coincidentally, I did invite commentary on the numbers from tdameritrade I posted, and almost nobody picked it up.

Ok, so then what do you consider to be an acceptable motivation for a person to question or criticize TSLA as an investment?
Is any criticism of the company or the stock's relative value at a given time acceptable?
It's not as if I'm the only one suggesting that you and others may be too invested in this company. Why would multiple people on the internet say anything at all about it unless their motivation were similar? We could just keep our thoughts to ourselves but then this place becomes an echo chamber of cheerleading instead of a place for thoughtful, respectful discussion. As a society I think we've already gone far enough in that direction.

If a respectful but dissenting opinion isn't welcome here, then you can have the floor. I'll leave the cheerleaders to do what they do. Hopefully your TSLA holdings work out for you, but the stock picking and greenwashed consumption traits that are frequently exhibited in this thread are kind of counter to a lot of core MMM principals in my opinion. I'll leave the thread with some final thoughts for the collective:
Reduce your consumption, rather than just trying to clean it up. Fix your old stuff and use the hell out of it instead of replacing it. Do your best to be rational and logical about choices rather than emotional, or at the very least be aware of the ways that your sub-optimal choices impact yourself and others so that you may be as informed as possible. Enjoy your thread everyone.

Criticize away! Elon is a pig and could bring the whole thing to ruin alienating the entire customer base just being a jerk. Cities across the globe may follow Paris and eliminate nearly all vehicular traffic, pump up public transport, and make urban vehicles a thing of the past. Maybe there is an Enron situation happening at tesla? Someone could scoop the whole autotaxi thing and tesla just twists in the wind for airing their good ideas and not bringing to market before someone else. Anything could happen! Unfortunately, putin and bombs are a little more likely than some of these.....

But there is a difference between posting criticism of the company, and saying you are trying to save people from their own decisions. Do you understand that difference?

If there is anyone here that would appreciate that, let them step forward and claim it. For myself, it is unwelcome. That has nothing to do with criticism of tesla. I'm not here for someone to "save me from burning". I enjoy the discussion, I like the disparate POVs - but I make my decisions and sorry if that actually offends some people! you do you! But I must do me.

If the money I invested in tesla burns, I will deal with that. If the car burn, I'm going to go after them for recompense!  If the planet burns, then I will point the finger at more wasteful consumers than myself, for sure. :P

I think you took some leaps to draw those conclusions based on my post. The fact that you took my post so personally should tell you everything you need to know about the amount of emotional investment that you have involved here. Best of luck with the investments.

I actually couldn't have less of an emotional investment here. It's like I decided to wear red shoes and people are saying.....oh no, you should have worn black. Maybe try white? no, not red.

Is it the exclamation points? I am naturally vivacious...and expository.

But I do have an opinoin, is it because i haven't changed my mind? Is that an "emotional investment"? or that I call people out for being kind of condescending? Cuz I do that too.

Tesla could go enron tomorrow, and I'd just say oh crap, count up my losses and move on. The edsel.....it happens!

I'll always have my ibonds.......

achvfi

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1495 on: December 21, 2022, 03:35:33 PM »
Sorry, it seems worse than I thought. So you are planning to spend another 100 grand on tesla products.

Tesla doesn't need your dollars to survive, they have raised over 20 billion dollars in equity.

oh dear. did you think I wasn't allowed to buy what I want with my own money?
Nope I don't think that.

It is not surprising. But very interesting how people can be suckered into spending big chunks of life savings on things that relatively change your life very little.

I don't know if you think this supposedly subtle insulting of my choices is really all that subtle, or if you are intentionally being so because you don't have a real argument. My intention to get solar on my roof has been a goal for over 20 years, but I'd never been in the financial position to do it. Tesla has the look I prefer. If I didn't go with tesla, I'd be buying a new roof anyway, and solar panels, and backup storage from 2-3 different vendors. Tesla offers a much smoother and integrated process. It's a relief to find it so integrated, actually.

Do you think tesla has no real customers, or what? Do you think they came out with products no one was looking for and foisted it on them all? With their very clever lack of a marketing campaign? I was a tesla customer before tesla even existed, a decade even long before they ever started. I wasn't suckered into something - I found what I was looking for, and that wasn't available for many years.

So I think this is the third or so time I've explained this in this thread. I've put it out as helpful information for those who would never be tesla customers and maybe didn't understand a tesla customer. Again - just because you prefer pepsi and think the upcharge for coke is ridiculous and for "suckers", doesn't mean that the taste differential isn't worth it to those who prefer coke.

Speaking of soda - now that is for suckers - a completely made up 'necessity' that most households spend a fortune on with nothing to show, except maybe some dental or health detriments. 

In the grand scheme of things, spending 50k on a car is nothing. If it take me to 300k miles, will have been well worth it. Today, the heated seats and heated steering wheel were well worth the price! I didn't the little luxuries.....but I am enjoying them!

In my math, getting a tesla roof is financially neutral over the long haul. If you have other counters to that, that would be interesting. But just calling me a sucker for buying something I've been wanting for a few decades is not really very compelling.

I meant no disrespect to you. I don't know your financial situation, but I think financial and spending choices seem to be risky and not very efficient.

But of course, you do you.

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1496 on: December 21, 2022, 03:46:36 PM »

For me personally - my next vehicle was always going to be a tesla. I've been planning on that for a while. That preceeded my foray into buying their stock. My reason for that wasn't because it was a luxury type vehicle. It wasn't just because it was an EV. It was because it was from an exclusively EV manufacturer deliberately trying to shift the narative on new cars and the environment. That is what gets my purchasing money. When I was first hearing about tesla, you know the narative is "can you afford to buy it?" and my narative is "can I afford NOT to buy it?" Thinking of the world, the future, climate issues, air pollution (one of my children has asthma.....we used to live near an expressway.....).

Adding in an additional FU to the haggling dealership model that I've had all bad experiences with, was just icing on the cake. Trying to get a car at a dealership as a young single woman 20 years ago was one of the worse, most manipulative feeling experiences of my life. Anything I can do put a bullet in the model is sweet music to my ears.

Similarly my next roof will be tesla, again my question is can I afford NOT to buy it? Given the world........and I've always hated the look of solar panel on a roof and didn't think there would be any alternative. Then I saw this! Was so thrilled for it! It was definitely going to be my next roof! I will get powerwalls for energy security. I will get as close to self sufficient in energy as I can, my perspective is that anyone who could possible go that route must for everyone's future. And tesla seems to me to be the best way to do that.

So my consumerism came first, and then I bought the stock because I see this as really being what the future needs. Was it over valued, sure, maybe? Will it bounce back tomorrow? Probably not.

But I think 3 years from now these shares will be well worth the volatity of now. And if not - I'll have sufficient funds in the indexes for myself.

But back to my new car!!! Word on the street is expected lifespan is about 300k miles, so this will do me for quite some time. Get the tesla roof and powerwalls and my car will be powered from my resources.....soooo looking forward to that!

And my financial projections on the tesla roof actually show it to be a wash, While it will be a bit pricey to do, it also lowers the amount of stache needed by a nearly equivalent amount. So almost like the roof - which was needed anyway! Came along for nearly nothing....


This just reads like parody to me, especially in light of MMM. I just don't relate to any of it (except the dealership model comment, although I've only tried it once and ended up walking out to go buy a car on craigslist because that was way less sketchy)

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1497 on: December 21, 2022, 04:13:45 PM »
Of course you all don't buy roofs and cars, I get it. I'm so extravagant! Going places.....staying dry....the oobleck!

That rain water leaking in can be used for a nice bath......I guess?

But I think you are all relying on someone spending something.....or else the sp500 would be flat for like 15 years!

meanwhile.....
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-issues-dire-warning-over-ukraine-s-fate-if-u-s-delivers-weapons/ar-AA15xaXz?cvid=1ca591eb01f8409ca512ec402bab6aa2







mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1498 on: December 21, 2022, 04:16:05 PM »
Sorry, it seems worse than I thought. So you are planning to spend another 100 grand on tesla products.

Tesla doesn't need your dollars to survive, they have raised over 20 billion dollars in equity.

oh dear. did you think I wasn't allowed to buy what I want with my own money?
Nope I don't think that.

It is not surprising. But very interesting how people can be suckered into spending big chunks of life savings on things that relatively change your life very little.

I don't know if you think this supposedly subtle insulting of my choices is really all that subtle, or if you are intentionally being so because you don't have a real argument. My intention to get solar on my roof has been a goal for over 20 years, but I'd never been in the financial position to do it. Tesla has the look I prefer. If I didn't go with tesla, I'd be buying a new roof anyway, and solar panels, and backup storage from 2-3 different vendors. Tesla offers a much smoother and integrated process. It's a relief to find it so integrated, actually.

Do you think tesla has no real customers, or what? Do you think they came out with products no one was looking for and foisted it on them all? With their very clever lack of a marketing campaign? I was a tesla customer before tesla even existed, a decade even long before they ever started. I wasn't suckered into something - I found what I was looking for, and that wasn't available for many years.

So I think this is the third or so time I've explained this in this thread. I've put it out as helpful information for those who would never be tesla customers and maybe didn't understand a tesla customer. Again - just because you prefer pepsi and think the upcharge for coke is ridiculous and for "suckers", doesn't mean that the taste differential isn't worth it to those who prefer coke.

Speaking of soda - now that is for suckers - a completely made up 'necessity' that most households spend a fortune on with nothing to show, except maybe some dental or health detriments. 

In the grand scheme of things, spending 50k on a car is nothing. If it take me to 300k miles, will have been well worth it. Today, the heated seats and heated steering wheel were well worth the price! I didn't the little luxuries.....but I am enjoying them!

In my math, getting a tesla roof is financially neutral over the long haul. If you have other counters to that, that would be interesting. But just calling me a sucker for buying something I've been wanting for a few decades is not really very compelling.

I meant no disrespect to you. I don't know your financial situation, but I think financial and spending choices seem to be risky and not very efficient.

But of course, you do you.

I appreciate this, thank you. I find them to be extremely efficient, but will see where it all ends up in the next 10/15/20 or so years.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1499 on: December 21, 2022, 04:54:23 PM »

For me personally - my next vehicle was always going to be a tesla. I've been planning on that for a while. That preceeded my foray into buying their stock. My reason for that wasn't because it was a luxury type vehicle. It wasn't just because it was an EV. It was because it was from an exclusively EV manufacturer deliberately trying to shift the narative on new cars and the environment. That is what gets my purchasing money. When I was first hearing about tesla, you know the narative is "can you afford to buy it?" and my narative is "can I afford NOT to buy it?" Thinking of the world, the future, climate issues, air pollution (one of my children has asthma.....we used to live near an expressway.....).

Adding in an additional FU to the haggling dealership model that I've had all bad experiences with, was just icing on the cake. Trying to get a car at a dealership as a young single woman 20 years ago was one of the worse, most manipulative feeling experiences of my life. Anything I can do put a bullet in the model is sweet music to my ears.

Similarly my next roof will be tesla, again my question is can I afford NOT to buy it? Given the world........and I've always hated the look of solar panel on a roof and didn't think there would be any alternative. Then I saw this! Was so thrilled for it! It was definitely going to be my next roof! I will get powerwalls for energy security. I will get as close to self sufficient in energy as I can, my perspective is that anyone who could possible go that route must for everyone's future. And tesla seems to me to be the best way to do that.

So my consumerism came first, and then I bought the stock because I see this as really being what the future needs. Was it over valued, sure, maybe? Will it bounce back tomorrow? Probably not.

But I think 3 years from now these shares will be well worth the volatity of now. And if not - I'll have sufficient funds in the indexes for myself.

But back to my new car!!! Word on the street is expected lifespan is about 300k miles, so this will do me for quite some time. Get the tesla roof and powerwalls and my car will be powered from my resources.....soooo looking forward to that!

And my financial projections on the tesla roof actually show it to be a wash, While it will be a bit pricey to do, it also lowers the amount of stache needed by a nearly equivalent amount. So almost like the roof - which was needed anyway! Came along for nearly nothing....



This just reads like parody to me, especially in light of MMM. I just don't relate to any of it (except the dealership model comment, although I've only tried it once and ended up walking out to go buy a car on craigslist because that was way less sketchy)

how so? are you reacting to the use of the word consumerism specifically?

Checking the definition to see if I used it correctly, and it has several definitions, and even some nuances within those definitions......some of which are weightier than others. So perhaps it was a poor word choice there. I was speaking of myself as a consumer, a customer, a buyer, nosomuch as a philosophy of high consumption as a mandate or anything. But I would hope one would read a little more detailed before calling it a parody. Buying a roof is a once every 20-30 years purchase, and a car every 10-20 (at least herearound!), So I don't think that discussing these two very low volume purchases would necessarily bring to mind those negative connotations, particularly as I mentioned wanting some of them for decades, and planning for them for years.

On a side note: You can't walk out of a dealership when they have the keys to your current car and won't give it back.


 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!