Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Finally a decent space company that we can invest in?

[Scandium]

SpaceX is in discussions to sell insider shares that could boost the value of the company to around $350B:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/spacex-discusses-tender-offer-roughly-230920967.html

Looks like SpaceX's valuation will increase +67% over the course of 6 months.  That is stunning for a tiny company, let alone one the size of SpaceX.

I had the opportunity to invest in SpaceX and I still chose Rocket Lab.

Can you say anything about that opportunity?  I'm curious if it was available from someone you know, from a broker, or from a hedge fund.

I invested in a hedge fund a few years ago that hid the name of this one investment.  This large, private aerospace company they couldn't name kept pace with SpaceX's valuation.  So I've got a very tiny percent of my NW in SpaceX through a hedge fund.  But I could only invest in a hedge fund because I'm a "qualified investor" per SEC rules.

What does that mean/entail?

Net worth over $1 million, excluding primary residence (individually or with spouse or partner)
or
Income over $200,000 (individually) or $300,000 (with spouse or partner) in each of the prior two years, and reasonably expects the same for the current year.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/accreditedinvestor.asp

[AlanStache]

Oh snap, thats it?  Somehow I assumed numbers were higher, or it would be like on YouTube where they send you a silver plaque when you pass the magic number.

[mistymoney]

SpaceX is in discussions to sell insider shares that could boost the value of the company to around $350B:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/spacex-discusses-tender-offer-roughly-230920967.html

Looks like SpaceX's valuation will increase +67% over the course of 6 months.  That is stunning for a tiny company, let alone one the size of SpaceX.

I had the opportunity to invest in SpaceX and I still chose Rocket Lab.

Can you say anything about that opportunity?  I'm curious if it was available from someone you know, from a broker, or from a hedge fund.

I invested in a hedge fund a few years ago that hid the name of this one investment.  This large, private aerospace company they couldn't name kept pace with SpaceX's valuation.  So I've got a very tiny percent of my NW in SpaceX through a hedge fund.  But I could only invest in a hedge fund because I'm a "qualified investor" per SEC rules.

What does that mean/entail?

Net worth over $1 million, excluding primary residence (individually or with spouse or partner)
or
Income over $200,000 (individually) or $300,000 (with spouse or partner) in each of the prior two years, and reasonably expects the same for the current year.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/accreditedinvestor.asp

wow! I'm qualified!

[markbike528CBX]

Oh snap, thats it?  Somehow I assumed numbers were higher, or it would be like on YouTube where they send you a silver plaque when you pass the magic number.

According to https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/speeches-statements/crenshaw-accredited-investor-2020-08-26
this is a 38 year old (at the time of the 2020 speech) definition ie 1982.
and "The most significant policy choice the Commission makes today is the decision not to index the wealth thresholds to inflation going forward. "

1983 $1,000,000 equals $3,270,593 in 2024 dollars.  https://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Calculators/Cumulative_Inflation_Calculator.aspx

Another commissioner on the same day noted that the accredited investor concepts conflated net worth to financial sophistication.
This prevents some people of lower net worth from participating in private markets.
https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/speeches-statements/peirce-accredited-investor-2020-08-26#_ftn2

Definitions:
https://www.sec.gov/resources-small-businesses/capital-raising-building-blocks/accredited-investors
Financial Criteria:
    Net worth over $1 million, excluding primary residence (individually or with spouse or partner)

Diving down the rabbit hole:
The LAW (the US Code)
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/USCODE-2023-title15/pdf/USCODE-2023-title15-chap2A-subchapI-sec77b.pdf
 "any net worth standard shall be $1,000,000, excluding the value of the primary residence of such natural person."
And it allows the SEC to Adjust as needed.

The Regulations (how the SEC, part of the Executive Branch, enforces the law).
https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-17/chapter-II/part-230/subject-group-ECFR6e651a4c86c0174/section-230.501#p-230.501(a)
230.501(a)(5) Any natural person whose individual net worth, or joint net worth with that person's spouse or spousal equivalent, exceeds $1,000,000;
230.501(a)(5)i(A) The person's primary residence shall not be included as an asset;

[MustacheAndaHalf]

Besides the "qualified investor" threshold of $1M NW, there are a couple other levels: qualified clients require at least $2.2M NW, and qualified purchasers require $5M NW.  I don't know the details, but some hedge funds require these additional criteria to invest with them.

"Definition of “Qualified Client” ... the dollar amount threshold of the net worth test from $2,100,000 to $2,200,000"
https://www.sec.gov/files/rules/final/2021/ia-5904-fact-sheet.pdf

"... for purposes of the '33 Act, "qualified purchaser" should be defined ... $5 million for individuals"
https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/s72301/borg1.htm


I've been investing in hedge funds through Long Angle, which has forums and investments.

"Additionally, we confirm that all members are either Qualified Clients or Qualified Purchasers, possessing $2.2M+ or $5M+ in investable assets, respectively."
https://www.longangle.com/faq

[maizefolk]

Typically it means you either have a net worth of more than $1M excluding your home, or you have a track record of earning more than $200,000 a year as an individual. There are some other criteria that can also work but those are the big ones for qualified investor/accredited investor status.

[Bartlebooth]

Thanks for reaching out - I've added you to my "Buddies list" so you can PM me now.  Personally I prefer others making the choice of which private shares to buy, since I lack expertise.  In VC funds, I've heard a tiny percent of the fund makes all the returns.  Most of the stocks never pay back their investment, which makes diversification vital.

@MustacheAndaHalf Is there room on that buddies list for me? :)

[Herbert Derp]

New Glenn has made it to orbit on its first flight! The booster landing was not successful. Huge achievement by Blue Origin!

https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/01/blue-origin-reaches-orbit-on-first-flight-of-its-titanic-new-glenn-rocket/

In other news, Stoke Space just raised $260M and hopes to fly their Nova rocket in 2025. These guys are the real deal! But most people think launching in 2025 is wildly optimistic, I am thinking 2026 or 2027 is much more realistic.

https://spacenews.com/stoke-space-raises-260-million/

[MustacheAndaHalf]

Bartlebooth - I don't recall interacting with you, so I'm not opening up messages to you.  But if you create a thread in this forum asking a question, I'll see it and may reply there.

[Bartlebooth]

Bartlebooth - I don't recall interacting with you, so I'm not opening up messages to you.  But if you create a thread in this forum asking a question, I'll see it and may reply there.

OK...I even have a fairly relevant topic of conversation.

But really I'm just looking for the pointers on investing in SpaceX.  A couple years ago I spent a few hours pursuing EquityZen and MicroVentures possibilities, but it didn't seem like they had much going for SpaceX.  Now I am realizing that this is a more bespoke process and I am motivated to put in the legwork.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

If you want to invest in SpaceX directly, @Herbert Derp would know better.

I had the opportunity to invest in SpaceX and I still chose Rocket Lab.

Can you say anything about that opportunity?  I'm curious if it was available from someone you know, from a broker, or from a hedge fund.

The opportunity was from a group of “small” investors who pool their funds together in order to participate in SpaceX funding rounds. They have also participated in funding rounds for X and Redwood Materials. I tried to PM you more details but seems you have PMs blocked.

I bought into a hedge fund, years ago, that included SpaceX as a very small holding.  That group requires $2.2 million net worth to join, but you would also need a time machine to invest years ago.  And you'd be better off using a time machine to buy Nvidia shares.

An analyst on CNBC mentioned SpaceX repeatedly, claiming nobody would catch them (much as Herbert Derp said above).  The claim is that SpaceX would make access to space much cheaper once Starship exits the experimental stage.  I wonder if that will put pressure on RocketLab if they compete with lower prices from SpaceX.

[Bartlebooth]

If you want to invest in SpaceX directly, @Herbert Derp would know better.

Ah, I now see that I reversed the roles of you and @Herbert Derp in that side discussion.  Thank you.

[Radagast]

Did someone put a rocket on this thing? Glad my next bit of spare money is going to BRK.B to get an insurance discount. I couldn't bring myself to buy at this price!

(BRKB RKLB IBKR: the tickers on my individual stocks have a common theme)

[BicycleB]

Wow, RKLB cracked $30 briefly and finished today over $29.

Lots of news lately. Some of it is financial analysis classing RKLB as a large-cap stock now.

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/e7d2a6ed-bb58-3961-a3aa-6095cb8c62e4/rocket-space-stocks-fly-on.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rocket-lab-launch-global-wildfire-213000671.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-rocket-lab-usa-inc-104445101.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-us-stocks-trading-estimated-100637161.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rocket-lab-schedules-next-electron-213000400.html

[Herbert Derp]

Rocket Lab is a subcontractor on this $1.45B hypersonic contract with the US military:
https://www.space.com/space-exploration/tech/rocket-lab-selected-to-launch-more-hypersonic-test-vehicles-for-us-military

No idea how much of that $1.45B is going to Rocket Lab. Probably a relatively small fraction.

[time is money]

@Herbert Derp  A bit off-ski the RKLB topic. But do you have an opinion on ASTS? They are raising $400m which sets them up in a solid financial position (around $1b cash) to build and launch the satellite constellation. I am considering to open a position on the back of this dilution. Appreciate if you could share your view on the company and their technology. Thanks in advance!

[Herbert Derp]

ASTS has cool technology but they are a pure play telecommunications company. I think ASTS will find its niche in telecommunications alongside Starlink and Kuiper, and might capture a decent market share. They don’t have any particular advantage over SpaceX, though. But telecommunications is a big industry so there is plenty of space for ASTS, and their valuation seems justified.

For me personally I want to invest in a more diversified company which is why I picked Rocket Lab. I think there will be more growth opportunities for a well diversified company like Rocket Lab versus a company which is locked into a single niche.

[time is money]

Thanks for your feedback. I opened ASTS position on the back of the price drop. I agree - Rocket Lab overall is a better long term investment. The ultimate publicity traded space company! However it’s safe to say the big $$$ are in space applications. Probably we won’t have a sight of RKLB space application for a good few years from now. With the current Rocket Lab valuation I think ASTS could outperform Rocket Lab in shortish term (1-3 years). Ofcourse depends on how timely ASTS will execute the production and constellation launch. Once they have proven their technology is superior and start generating revenue - share price should get re-rated significantly. For me investment in ASTS is some sort of diversification as RKLB now is 65% of my portfolio, ASTS is 7%. Yes, I know doesn’t look like a diverse portfolio and it’s not however I do run it quite concentrated on a few companies / sectors intentionally. Anyway, thanks again for your view, I don’t want to hijack Rocket Lab thread.

[AlanStache]

Late last year my Coop building discussed ditching our individual cable internet packages and looking at a common StarLink subscription.  "Fuck no I am not doing business with that man" was a sentiment expressed by a few households.  A not-StarLink option might do well.

[Herbert Derp]

I would like to add that telecommunications has a unique moat, in that the radio spectrum is allocated and licensed with the government. Once a telecommunications company is granted control over a spectrum in a certain country, no other company can take that spectrum. And there is a very finite amount of spectrum available. What this means is that the number of companies who will ever be able to operate a telecommunications satellite constellation is very limited!

So basically there’s going to be Starlink, AST, and Kuiper, and there’s not much room for other companies to build their own telecommunications constellations, at least in the United States.

[Herbert Derp]

A new version of Archimedes is here! Rocket Lab has achieved 200kg mass reduction of the engine, and simplification across its components for reliability and improved manufacturability. Good to see this progress.

https://x.com/RocketLab/status/1885094267888296153

[rothwem]

So, at the risk of pulling this thread into the political realm, is anyone concerned that RKLB is going get crushed by SpaceX now that Elon is heavily influencing (running) the government?  What protects RKLB from government favoritism when SpaceX and Rocketlab do similar things?

[Bartlebooth]

So, at the risk of pulling this thread into the political realm, is anyone concerned that RKLB is going get crushed by SpaceX now that Elon is heavily influencing (running) the government?  What protects RKLB from government favoritism when SpaceX and Rocketlab do similar things?

No.  Lot of hassle to do that when SpaceX is on to bigger and better things anyways.  And I am skeptical that these two much-hated people are into such pure corruption.

[talltexan]

Checking in on the party here after a lengthy break: I remain long $RKLB, currently 493 shares, but a covered call position on 300 of them. I was lucky to buy in when the price was lower, but cashed out some shares before the remarkable November bonanza. Earnings next week, lets see what they lead?!?

[BicycleB]

So, at the risk of pulling this thread into the political realm, is anyone concerned that RKLB is going get crushed by SpaceX now that Elon is heavily influencing (running) the government?  What protects RKLB from government favoritism when SpaceX and Rocketlab do similar things?

Rocketlab has private customers and I think it's well managed enough to survive on those, even if there's a period where the govt breaks or fails to renew current contracts. So I doubt it would be crushed.

Could stock price take a dip beyond the 25% of the past few weeks? Sure.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

So, at the risk of pulling this thread into the political realm, is anyone concerned that RKLB is going get crushed by SpaceX now that Elon is heavily influencing (running) the government?  What protects RKLB from government favoritism when SpaceX and Rocketlab do similar things?

I'm going to seize on someone else bringing up politics to compare U.S. politics to Rocket Lab's stock price, which allows me to ask "What happens next?"

When Trump won the election, Rocket Lab surged during Nov 2024.. then went nowhere until Trump took office.  It surged on Jan 20, but slowly fell after that.. another spike on Feb 10, and falling after that.  It looks like Rocket Lab's price jumps depended on Donald "Space Force" Trump, and that optimism is fading.  Is there another analysis of what happened - the surge of Jan and recent slide of $RKLB stock price?

[mistymoney]

sure took a dive today.

I can't find news to indicate why - interest if other have opinoins?

[Radagast]

No idea why. I bought two shares on a long dated limit order in the low 20's. Looks like my 3-month pivot to BRK.B for new money was right! Now back to RKLB...

[BicycleB]

To me it looks like a result of general market conditions - S&P 500 down as investors worry about the growing rift between Europe and USA (Trump's break with Zelensky), underlying tariff worries as Trump announces Tariffs Really Take Effect Tomorrow (today if you read this on March 4), etc. It seems that growth-oriented stocks like RKLB and ACHR suffer more in such dips.

I might be missing something though.

[mistymoney]

To me it looks like a result of general market conditions - S&P 500 down as investors worry about the growing rift between Europe and USA (Trump's break with Zelensky), underlying tariff worries as Trump announces Tariffs Really Take Effect Tomorrow (today if you read this on March 4), etc. It seems that growth-oriented stocks like RKLB and ACHR suffer more in such dips.

I might be missing something though.

Seems very plausible and might be it. I have only a small protion and was sure kicking myself when it zoomed up, but I wasn't going to get more at those prices. Been looking for a good point to get some more so been paying attention to the daily flux - but yesterday was certainly anomalous being more than 8% drop. Down 3% more today so far.

[Herbert Derp]

Rocket Lab’s acquisition snowball is rolling again!

Rocket Lab is acquiring space laser communications company Mynaric for $150M.

https://spacenews.com/rocket-lab-to-expand-into-laser-communications-with-mynaric-acquisition/

They are also acquiring satellite optical and infrared sensor company Geost for $275M.

https://spacenews.com/rocket-lab-to-acquire-satellite-payload-manufacturer-geost-for-275-million/

These acquisitions will enable Rocket Lab to bid more competitively on lucrative government contracts like Golden Dome, which incorporate space communication lasers and optical and infrared sensors to track hypersonic missiles.

There is more to come. In the Q1 2025 earnings call earlier this month, Adam Spice said Rocket Lab has half a dozen M&A deals in the pipeline. So that would be at least another four acquisitions if you count these two.

Next, we’ve also had an extremely active quarter pursuing new opportunities for space systems that further scales our vertical integration. We are pursuing several large government and commercial contracts that would see us building entire constellations of satellites, not just individual spacecraft. These are industry scaling and shaping constellation that would tap our full space systems value chain and realize significant value that reshapes our business. And on the M&A side, with a half dozen deals in the pipeline as we continue to expand our vertical integration. There’s high potential in all of this and we’ve expanded a lot as a company with our eyes set on Europe and international expansion as well as the deepening national security work that we’re taking on through Space Systems and Launch, the time is right for a new company structure that makes it simpler and more efficient to manage the business and our growth, particularly when it comes to U.S. Government classified programs.

https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/rocket-lab-usa-inc-nasdaqrklb-q1-2025-earnings-call-transcript-1530270/

Notably, on the day of the $275M Geost announcement, Rocket Lab’s market cap increased by over $1.74B to $13.27B (13.14%). You can really see the power of the acquisition snowball in action. The market cap increased by 633% of the value of the acquisition! Rocket Lab is basically getting paid to acquire companies. The momentum is incredible!

Rocket Lab’s strategy here is to keep acquiring more of the satellite supply chain so that they can be more vertically integrated. For an example of why this is important, look at Rocket Lab’s $143M contract to build satellite busses for MDA. This contract was actually a subcontract of a larger $327M contract for Globalstar. If Rocket Lab had been more vertically integrated at that time, they could have won the entire contract and earned over double the revenue!

https://spacenews.com/globalstar-selects-mda-and-rocket-lab-for-new-satellites/

Overall, more vertical integration means more revenue per contract, more competitive bids due to increased capabilities and efficiency, and more contracts overall. It’s a win-win-win for Rocket Lab. Plus, they plan to have the capability of launching their own satellites and owning and operating their own constellation, making it a win-win-win-win. It’s no wonder the market is paying Rocket Lab to acquire more companies and execute this strategy. Does that give us yet another win?

[Herbert Derp]

In other news, we finally got to see what Amazon’s Kuiper satellites look like. They have a boxy, traditional design which is much less efficient than the “flat” design that SpaceX uses for Starlink.

https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/05/we-finally-know-a-little-more-about-amazons-super-secret-satellites/

Meanwhile, Rocket Lab is gearing up to mass produce satellites using a Starlink-like “Flatellite” satellite bus. I can’t wait for the first Flatellites to make it into orbit!

https://www.rocketlabusa.com/updates/rocket-lab-announces-flatellite-a-new-satellite-designed-for-mass-manufacture-and-tailored-for-large-constellations/

Firefly and SpaceX just had more launch failures for their new rockets. Space remains hard. I think Firefly is in trouble, four of the first six Firefly Alpha launches have now failed. They really need a win. SpaceX can afford to keep blowing up rockets, Firefly can’t.

https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/firefly-aerospaces-alpha-rocket-fails-during-6th-ever-launch-falls-into-the-sea-near-antarctica

https://spacenews.com/starship-breaks-up-on-reentry-after-loss-of-attitude-control/

[Herbert Derp]

Elon Musk and Donald Trump got into a feud today and they both threatened to cancel SpaceX’s contracts with the US government. Rocket Lab stock is up 5.67% after hours on the news.

SpaceX losing government contracts can only be good news for Rocket Lab!

[time is money]

Yes, looks like the gloves are off. Definitely positive for Rocket Lab and other SpaceX alternative companies. Those who were worried that SpaceX would be getting all the best pieces of the pie due to Musk and Trump being buddies - can sleep peacefully now. ASTS up as well on the back of the ongoing circus. Isaacman is a collateral damage in all this mess though. Let’s see who takes the NASA admin chair.
What do people here think - will we see Neutron’s maiden launch this year? Even though Rocket Lab has said it’s on track for second half 2025, I would be very pleasantly surprised if there’s no delay. My gut feeling is Q1 2026 is probably more likely.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

"SpaceX is one of the nation's largest federal contractors, securing $3.8 billion over hundreds of government contracts in fiscal year 2024 alone, The New York Times reported."
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/05/trump-musk-crazy-government-contracts.html

I saw a claim online that SpaceX's valuation could be cut in half.  (Which would turn 0.3% of my NW into half that, for full disclosure)  Looking at the data, I don't see how that adds up:

Launch revenue grew to $4.2B in 2024, up from $3.5B in 2023
Starlink revenue grew to $8.2B in 2024, up from $4.2B in 2023
Starlink customers grew to 4.6M, up from 2.3M
Other revenue was $720M last year

https://payloadspace.com/estimating-spacexs-2024-revenue/

Dividing, I get 29% of SpaceX revenue from government contracts, which suggests losing 1/3rd of its valuation rather than a half.  But notice Starlink revenue is both faster growing and much larger.  SpaceX's valuation might disproportionally depend on Starlink for growth, which would mean the valuation cut is even smaller.

I recently discovered the website "Forge Global", which allows SEC qualified investors to buy private shares - like in SpaceX.  The company's valuation has been floating around the $400 billion mark, but doesn't have an update since the Musk-Trump falling out.  It's possible the uncertainty causes buyers and sellers to pause, to recalculate the value of SpaceX.  But I imagine within the next week there should be an update.
...

An assumption on my part: Rocket lab's current revenue of about $0.4 billion limits how much it can grow to accommodate $3.8 billion in new government contracts.  Could Rocket Lab more than double of $3.8 billion of contracts were on the line?  (Which is also risky - if Musk and Trump make up, those contracts could quickly dwindle, inflicting significant losses on unused capacity).

[mistymoney]

"SpaceX is one of the nation's largest federal contractors, securing $3.8 billion over hundreds of government contracts in fiscal year 2024 alone, The New York Times reported."
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/05/trump-musk-crazy-government-contracts.html

I saw a claim online that SpaceX's valuation could be cut in half.  (Which would turn 0.3% of my NW into half that, for full disclosure)  Looking at the data, I don't see how that adds up:

Launch revenue grew to $4.2B in 2024, up from $3.5B in 2023
Starlink revenue grew to $8.2B in 2024, up from $4.2B in 2023
Starlink customers grew to 4.6M, up from 2.3M
Other revenue was $720M last year

https://payloadspace.com/estimating-spacexs-2024-revenue/

Dividing, I get 29% of SpaceX revenue from government contracts, which suggests losing 1/3rd of its valuation rather than a half.  But notice Starlink revenue is both faster growing and much larger.  SpaceX's valuation might disproportionally depend on Starlink for growth, which would mean the valuation cut is even smaller.

I recently discovered the website "Forge Global", which allows SEC qualified investors to buy private shares - like in SpaceX.  The company's valuation has been floating around the $400 billion mark, but doesn't have an update since the Musk-Trump falling out.  It's possible the uncertainty causes buyers and sellers to pause, to recalculate the value of SpaceX.  But I imagine within the next week there should be an update.
...

An assumption on my part: Rocket lab's current revenue of about $0.4 billion limits how much it can grow to accommodate $3.8 billion in new government contracts.  Could Rocket Lab more than double of $3.8 billion of contracts were on the line?  (Which is also risky - if Musk and Trump make up, those contracts could quickly dwindle, inflicting significant losses on unused capacity).

One thing to add into the equation is national security concerns. Adam Kinzinger has long questioned musks access to info via spacex and government contracts. if the trump breakup endures, and I think it will given the epstein tweets musk made, and other countries become concerned around security issues, spacex may be edged out by more politically neutral companies providing similar services.

I think it is astounding the market edge musk had with spacex and telsa that he is carelessly throwing away so he exercise his "free speech" on the platform formerly knows as twitter.

[Telecaster]

One thing to add into the equation is national security concerns. Adam Kinzinger has long questioned musks access to info via spacex and government contracts. if the trump breakup endures, and I think it will given the epstein tweets musk made, and other countries become concerned around security issues, spacex may be edged out by more politically neutral companies providing similar services.

I think it is astounding the market edge musk had with spacex and telsa that he is carelessly throwing away so he exercise his "free speech" on the platform formerly knows as twitter.

Musk made a big bet that government corruption would work in his favor.  But corruption goes both ways.   Musk bought the election, but politicians don't stay bought.   Contracts can be awarded unfairly, and they can taken away just as unfairly.   

[BicycleB]

"SpaceX is one of the nation's largest federal contractors, securing $3.8 billion over hundreds of government contracts in fiscal year 2024 alone, The New York Times reported."
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/05/trump-musk-crazy-government-contracts.html

I saw a claim online that SpaceX's valuation could be cut in half.  (Which would turn 0.3% of my NW into half that, for full disclosure)  Looking at the data, I don't see how that adds up:

Launch revenue grew to $4.2B in 2024, up from $3.5B in 2023
Starlink revenue grew to $8.2B in 2024, up from $4.2B in 2023
Starlink customers grew to 4.6M, up from 2.3M
Other revenue was $720M last year

https://payloadspace.com/estimating-spacexs-2024-revenue/

Dividing, I get 29% of SpaceX revenue from government contracts, which suggests losing 1/3rd of its valuation rather than a half.  But notice Starlink revenue is both faster growing and much larger.  SpaceX's valuation might disproportionally depend on Starlink for growth, which would mean the valuation cut is even smaller.

I recently discovered the website "Forge Global", which allows SEC qualified investors to buy private shares - like in SpaceX.  The company's valuation has been floating around the $400 billion mark, but doesn't have an update since the Musk-Trump falling out.  It's possible the uncertainty causes buyers and sellers to pause, to recalculate the value of SpaceX.  But I imagine within the next week there should be an update.
...

An assumption on my part: Rocket lab's current revenue of about $0.4 billion limits how much it can grow to accommodate $3.8 billion in new government contracts.  Could Rocket Lab more than double of $3.8 billion of contracts were on the line?  (Which is also risky - if Musk and Trump make up, those contracts could quickly dwindle, inflicting significant losses on unused capacity).

It looks like you view the launch contracts as govt, and the Starlink customers as private. Could some of the Starlink revenue be from the US govt too?

[MustacheAndaHalf]

"SpaceX is one of the nation's largest federal contractors, securing $3.8 billion over hundreds of government contracts in fiscal year 2024 alone, The New York Times reported."
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/05/trump-musk-crazy-government-contracts.html

I saw a claim online that SpaceX's valuation could be cut in half.  (Which would turn 0.3% of my NW into half that, for full disclosure)  Looking at the data, I don't see how that adds up:

Launch revenue grew to $4.2B in 2024, up from $3.5B in 2023
Starlink revenue grew to $8.2B in 2024, up from $4.2B in 2023
Starlink customers grew to 4.6M, up from 2.3M
Other revenue was $720M last year

https://payloadspace.com/estimating-spacexs-2024-revenue/

Dividing, I get 29% of SpaceX revenue from government contracts, which suggests losing 1/3rd of its valuation rather than a half.  But notice Starlink revenue is both faster growing and much larger.  SpaceX's valuation might disproportionally depend on Starlink for growth, which would mean the valuation cut is even smaller.

I recently discovered the website "Forge Global", which allows SEC qualified investors to buy private shares - like in SpaceX.  The company's valuation has been floating around the $400 billion mark, but doesn't have an update since the Musk-Trump falling out.  It's possible the uncertainty causes buyers and sellers to pause, to recalculate the value of SpaceX.  But I imagine within the next week there should be an update.
...

An assumption on my part: Rocket lab's current revenue of about $0.4 billion limits how much it can grow to accommodate $3.8 billion in new government contracts.  Could Rocket Lab more than double of $3.8 billion of contracts were on the line?  (Which is also risky - if Musk and Trump make up, those contracts could quickly dwindle, inflicting significant losses on unused capacity).

It looks like you view the launch contracts as govt, and the Starlink customers as private. Could some of the Starlink revenue be from the US govt too?

That's a flaw in my analysis - I assumed government contracts were not disproportionately part of Starlink revenue.  If they're split equally or even 2:1 more on Starlink, it is still growing much faster than launch.  The starting growth of +100% vs +20% helps.

I also didn't want to mix and match data from different sources and times.  The following article predicts 2025 Starlink revenue of almost $12 billion, of which 1/4th is U.S. government contracts.  But if I try and apply that, I'm assuming the same proportion of government contracts as last year.
https://spacenews.com/starlink-set-to-hit-11-8-billion-revenue-in-2025-boosted-by-military-contracts/

[MustacheAndaHalf]

"SpaceX is one of the nation's largest federal contractors, securing $3.8 billion over hundreds of government contracts in fiscal year 2024 alone, The New York Times reported."
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/05/trump-musk-crazy-government-contracts.html

I saw a claim online that SpaceX's valuation could be cut in half.  (Which would turn 0.3% of my NW into half that, for full disclosure)  Looking at the data, I don't see how that adds up:

Launch revenue grew to $4.2B in 2024, up from $3.5B in 2023
Starlink revenue grew to $8.2B in 2024, up from $4.2B in 2023
Starlink customers grew to 4.6M, up from 2.3M
Other revenue was $720M last year

https://payloadspace.com/estimating-spacexs-2024-revenue/

Dividing, I get 29% of SpaceX revenue from government contracts, which suggests losing 1/3rd of its valuation rather than a half.  But notice Starlink revenue is both faster growing and much larger.  SpaceX's valuation might disproportionally depend on Starlink for growth, which would mean the valuation cut is even smaller.

I recently discovered the website "Forge Global", which allows SEC qualified investors to buy private shares - like in SpaceX.  The company's valuation has been floating around the $400 billion mark, but doesn't have an update since the Musk-Trump falling out.  It's possible the uncertainty causes buyers and sellers to pause, to recalculate the value of SpaceX.  But I imagine within the next week there should be an update.
...

An assumption on my part: Rocket lab's current revenue of about $0.4 billion limits how much it can grow to accommodate $3.8 billion in new government contracts.  Could Rocket Lab more than double of $3.8 billion of contracts were on the line?  (Which is also risky - if Musk and Trump make up, those contracts could quickly dwindle, inflicting significant losses on unused capacity).

One thing to add into the equation is national security concerns. Adam Kinzinger has long questioned musks access to info via spacex and government contracts. if the trump breakup endures, and I think it will given the epstein tweets musk made, and other countries become concerned around security issues, spacex may be edged out by more politically neutral companies providing similar services.

I think it is astounding the market edge musk had with spacex and telsa that he is carelessly throwing away so he exercise his "free speech" on the platform formerly knows as twitter.

Remember the astonauts stranded on the ISS?  Their Boeing capsule wasn't safe enough, so they waited in space for months... until SpaceX was able to launch a Dragon capsule to rescue them.  The two main competitors are China and Russia, both of whom seem more problematic from a security perspective.

That's not the only use of space, and here a shift towards smaller military satellites could benefit Rocket Lab.  I don't know which rockets are launched from New Zealand versus the U.S. (Virginia), which could be a factor.  The U.S. military probably won't ship their top secret satellites to New Zealand for launch.

Had Musk stuck to free speech, I think he wouldn't have suffered as much of a reputation hit.  His work at DOGE, and his focus on lowering the budget deficit, are putting him at odds with both political parties.

[LightStache]

The U.S. military probably won't ship their top secret satellites to New Zealand for launch.

They already have

ETA:

I don't know which rockets are launched from New Zealand versus the U.S. (Virginia), which could be a factor.

Launch sites are based on orbital destination and launch azimuth, which is constrained by downrange overflight safety.

NZ is suitable for high orbital and retrograde (i.e. counter to the Earth's rotation) inclinations such as SSO. Wallops is better suited to lower inclinations, including deliveries to ISS at 52 deg inclination or GPS at 55 deg.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

The U.S. military probably won't ship their top secret satellites to New Zealand for launch.

They already have

Thanks for the correction!  "NRO" stands for "National Reconnaissance Office" in the quote below:

"The mission, named ‘Birds of a Feather’, lifted off from Rocket Lab Launch Complex on New Zealand’s Māhia Peninsula at 02:56 UTC (15:56 NZDT, 31 January 2020). The mission was Rocket Lab’s first launch for 2020 and was the first dedicated launch of an NRO payload from New Zealand."