Regarding my post about Astra's history with the US military, Astra was the sole participant in the
DARPA Launch Challenge to provide "agile and responsive orbital launches" for the US military (which they
failed, by the way). So, this is not conjecture that the US military sees value in Astra--in fact, the requirements were specifically laid out in the DARPA Launch Challenge.
I wanted to take some time to list out what I see as some of the main threats to Astra's business plan:
1. They need to reach orbitIn just about 10 days, we'll know more about this! I hope they make it to orbit. If the upcoming launch fails, they must have a clear plan to fix the issue.
2. They need to scale up their payload capacity by a factor of sixCurrently, Astra's rocket can only lift 50kg to orbit. This number is typically glossed over or omitted from Astra's press materials. In 2022, Astra plans to begin work on a rocket that can lift 100kg. In 2023, they hope to have a rocket that can lift 300kg. See
this article for the above plan. In comparison, Rocket Lab's Electron can
already lift 300kg to orbit today, and ABL Space System's upcoming larger and more expensive rocket can lift 1,350kg. In order for Astra to meet the needs of megaconstellations like Amazon Kuiper, Astra must achieve this 300kg figure. Investors should pay close attention to Astra's progress of increasing their payload capacity.
3. Competition from large, cheap rockets like StarshipA big part of Astra's business model hinges on being able to deliver individual payloads to precise orbits on demand. Smallsat rideshare on Falcon 9 and Starship is cheaper than launching with Astra will ever be, even more so with Starship. But rideshare currently suffers from two issues: scheduling delays and lack of delivery to precise orbits. However, these issues could potentially be solved by launching many Starships at a very rapid cadence (which is the plan), and attaching space tugs to the ridesharing smallsats to deliver them to their precise orbits once the Starship drops them off.
Companies like Momentus plan to offer this space tug service, and in theory Rocket Lab could even put a bunch of Photons inside of a Starship and use them to deliver a bunch of smallsats to different orbits. Some drawbacks for that approach include space tugs being very slow and not appropriate for time-sensitive orbital insertions, and the added cost of the space tug itself which could be fairly expensive.
Time will tell how Astra's business model fares versus Starship + rideshare + space tugs. At least with Rocket Lab, they seem to be nervous about the long term viability of the small rocket business model and are pivoting to a larger, more reusable rocket.
4. Competition from other small rocketsAstra has to worry about competition from Rocket Lab's Electron, Virgin Orbit's LauncherOne, ABL Space Systems' RS1, Firefly Aerospace's Firefly Alpha, and Relativity Space's Terran 1. Out of these, I think Rocket Lab and ABL Space Systems are the biggest threats.
See this table for a quick comparison:
Payload to LEO Cost per launch Launch site flexibility? Commercial launches?
Astra 50kg $2.5MM Y N
Rocket Lab 300kg $5-6MM N Y
Virgin Orbit 500kg $12MM Y Y
ABL Space Systems 1,350kg $12MM Y N
Relativity Space 1,250kg $12MM N N
Firefly Aerospace 1,000kg $15MM N N
Rocket Lab has more experience and success than any of the other companies, and I expect the cost of the Electron to fall significantly over time as they continue to innovate. They are also the clear leader in satellites, spacecraft, and space systems, and have a large lead over Astra in their efforts to build a "platform" in space. Astra says they will build spacecraft, Rocket Lab is building and selling Photons. Astra says they will provide space services outside of launch to other space companies, Rocket Lab is actually doing it. But Astra's $134MM acquisition of Apollo Fusion shows that they are dead serious about competing with Rocket Lab on this front.
ABL Space Systems could be a threat depending on how rapidly they can innovate and whether they can bring down the cost of their rocket. Personally, I think ABL's offering is hands down better than Firefly and Relativity, given that they have larger payload capacity, lower cost, and the same capability as Astra to rapidly launch from anywhere. Notably, they seem focused only on launches for now and don't seem to have any plans of building a space platform like Astra and Rocket Lab. This is a company to watch!
Virgin Orbit's rocket is too expensive and they seem to be locked in to the unique constraints of their jumbo jet launched rocket design. Also, they innovate very slowly and have gotten a very poor return on their huge R&D investment. The only thing going for them is their ability to launch from anywhere.
Firefly Aerospace has yet to launch anything and they have already gone bankrupt once. Their rocket has 1,000kg payload capacity but also costs $15MM per launch. They also lack the ability to launch from anywhere, so not a threat IMO.
Relativity Space's rocket seems similar to Firefly Aerospace and also lacks the ability to launch from anywhere. Their 3D printing process will always be extremely slow compared to what the other companies are doing, and only makes sense for larger, extremely reusable rockets like their Terran R. 3D printing does not make sense for a small, non-reusable rocket. Honestly, I think the Terran 1 is just an R&D testbed for the Terran R, and not meant to be a serious product, like the Falcon 1 was to the Falcon 9.
