The Money Mustache Community

Learning, Sharing, and Teaching => Investor Alley => Topic started by: FrugalSaver on March 22, 2018, 10:20:26 PM

Title: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: FrugalSaver on March 22, 2018, 10:20:26 PM
I mostly missed the boat on Amazon, a company I thought had promise Long long ago. A DCA approach there would have yielded a fortune

Tesla intends to be more than just a car company. It’s woefully unprofitable. However, so has been amazon throughout its life.

Could TSLA be a 10 bagger a decade from now? I’m considering allocating 6% of new money and buying in every week or month.

Thoughts?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: RedmondStash on March 22, 2018, 10:32:48 PM
I mostly missed the boat on Amazon, a company I thought had promise Long long ago. A DCA approach there would have yielded a fortune

Tesla intends to be more than just a car company. It’s woefully unprofitable. However, so has been amazon throughout its life.

Could TSLA be a 10 bagger a decade from now? I’m considering allocating 6% of new money and buying in every week or month.

Thoughts?

I've considered the same thing, but mostly because I believe in what they're doing, not because I expect them to skyrocket in price like Amazon.

Tesla the company is not doing that well. And I personally don't believe that investing in individual companies will get me where I want to go. I'm all in on just plain whole-market index funds. Matching the market is possible; beating it consistently is just not something people can do, and a lot of people lose a lot of money proving that every day.

So I'd say invest in Tesla with a small portion of your money that you can afford to lose, because it's a total gamble. And recognize that you're just as likely to lose that money as to break even or make a profit. If your goal is to beat the market and get rich quick, you're going to waste money and time, and be disappointed.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Travis on March 22, 2018, 10:36:44 PM
This is the "get rich slowly" forum, not the "magic 8 ball hot stock pick" forum.  Tesla could be worth a trillion dollars someday, or it could keep plodding along. How long are you willing to sit on the stock and find out?  Apple was the stock to own in the mid 80s, nearly became worthless in the 90s, and is now the biggest company on Earth. You only needed to wait 30 years to reach that point and never in that period ever think that you had made a bad decision buying.  That's the thought process you need to have whenever you think about buying an individual stock.  You also need to ask what you're foregoing by buying that hopefully profitable stock now rather than something you know is going to be more reliable in giving you a return on your investment.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: SC93 on March 22, 2018, 10:47:15 PM
1 stock is always dangerous unless you have the extra money to play with.

As for the car itself..... I don't like it. My buddy has one. We had the choice and chose a Maserati. While he was looking for a charging station we were driving all we wanted to. If he leaves his house in Austin he has to plan to stop in Waco to charge if he comes to our house in Fort Worth. And it's not just a quick thing like a fill-up is. They are making great strides with batteries and hopefully they get it figured out so I can enjoy it but I doubt it.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Freedomin5 on March 23, 2018, 04:00:40 AM
Could TSLA be a 10 bagger a decade from now? 

Let me consult my crystal ball and get back to you.

All kidding aside, as others have mentioned, put some fun money in there if you think it might be your golden goose, but I wouldn't bet my life savings on this one stock. I myself have $1000 in TSLA. I just think the cars are pretty -- I like the concept.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: SwitchActiveDWG on March 23, 2018, 05:08:46 AM
This is the "get rich slowly" forum, not the "magic 8 ball hot stock pick" forum.  Tesla could be worth a trillion dollars someday, or it could keep plodding along. How long are you willing to sit on the stock and find out?  Apple was the stock to own in the mid 80s, nearly became worthless in the 90s, and is now the biggest company on Earth. You only needed to wait 30 years to reach that point and never in that period ever think that you had made a bad decision buying.  That's the thought process you need to have whenever you think about buying an individual stock.  You also need to ask what you're foregoing by buying that hopefully profitable stock now rather than something you know is going to be more reliable in giving you a return on your investment.

This. Individual equities are entertainment money. Buy it if you would value having some Tesla stock but have the correct mindset about it.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: WYOGO on March 23, 2018, 07:25:21 PM
I’d like to believe they are competitively positioned in the market place. I even purchased a 17’ Model S but leave the stock alone. It really is not consistent with my investment ideology. The car is absolutely incredible. First vehicle I have not even a hint of buyers remorse over.

I think the long term outlook is far more favorable for profitability than the near term.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: EricL on March 23, 2018, 07:45:48 PM
The first time I heard of Tesla they were building electric high performance sports cars.  The idea was to raise capital to later produce consumer electric cars that didn't suck.  I laughed because they started selling them just as gas went up and everyone wanted a good electric car and nobody could afford a high performance electric sports car.  At least not anyone who couldn't already afford a Lamborghini.  The joke was on me.  Tesla had crap timing.  But they had the tech savvy to build a high performance electric car.  Something I should've considered more carefully. Once they got things on an even keel, their stock went from $20 to $200.

I figured I'd already missed the big growth opportunity.  But I examined Tesla a little more closely.  The CEO, Elon Musk is a visionary, with his fingers in all sorts of tech pies from rockets to goofy flamethrowers.  Tesla is a futuristic company that is near fully automated.  It produces sophisticated automobiles with a fraction of the workforce.  There's a whole thread on this board about how automation will kill jobs.  But for an investor, that's very promising.  So I invested at "the top" of $200.  The stock, while volatile, hasn't disappointed.  I expect it will have serious ups and downs over the next few years.  But overall I think it's a good buy and hold.

Still prefer Index Funds though.

Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Telecaster on March 23, 2018, 08:55:02 PM
There is no moat.   Two years ago if you wanted a high-end performance electric car, your only choice was Tesla.  Within a year or two, nearly every high-end manufacturer will have an electric vehicle.  Porsche, Mercedes, BMW, etc. 
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: WYOGO on March 23, 2018, 10:10:30 PM
There is no moat.   Two years ago if you wanted a high-end performance electric car, your only choice was Tesla.  Within a year or two, nearly every high-end manufacturer will have an electric vehicle.  Porsche, Mercedes, BMW, etc.

Ahhh yes but with no charging infrastructure and a number of years behind establishing one, the network of ever increasing Tesla Superchargers, 1100 or more currently, enabling interstate travel globally is quite the moat. Trust me when I say few people will purchase 60-100K plus electric cars that cannot travel interstates easily with a reasonably fast and convienient charging solution. Basic fully electric cars like the Nissan Leaf are city commuter cars and most who own them have other long distance travel solutions. Tesla’s are suitable for interstate travel offering both the range and charging solutions required.

Add OTA software updates improving the car and adding features,  including the one I received yesterday that substantially improves AP2 enhanced autopilot, there is not a single offering, concept or otherwise, that offers a better value proposition currently in the premium, high performance fully electric market.

I am reminded courtesy of the New York Times that ...”Overall, the Tesla Model S is the best electric car you can buy, and one of the best cars of any type.”

They are well positioned from a brand/product standpoint, but that is only one piece.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: CCCA on March 23, 2018, 10:42:04 PM
There is no moat.   Two years ago if you wanted a high-end performance electric car, your only choice was Tesla.  Within a year or two, nearly every high-end manufacturer will have an electric vehicle.  Porsche, Mercedes, BMW, etc.

Ahhh yes but with no charging infrastructure and a number of years behind establishing one, the network of ever increasing Tesla Superchargers, 1100 or more currently, enabling interstate travel globally is quite the moat. Trust me when I say few people will purchase 60-100K plus electric cars that cannot travel interstates easily with a reasonably fast and convienient charging solution. Basic fully electric cars like the Nissan Leaf are city commuter cars and most who own them have other long distance travel solutions. Tesla’s are suitable for interstate travel offering both the range and charging solutions required.

Add OTA software updates improving the car and adding features,  including the one I received yesterday that substantially improves AP2 enhanced autopilot, there is not a single offering, concept or otherwise, that offers a better value proposition currently in the premium, high performance fully electric market.

I am reminded courtesy of the New York Times that ...”Overall, the Tesla Model S is the best electric car you can buy, and one of the best cars of any type.”

They are well positioned from a brand/product standpoint, but that is only one piece.


I consider Tesla like alot of people considered Apple about 5 years ago.  Everyone said Android and Samsung and (insert iPhone killer companies) would eat their lunch.  They thought that all of the other companies would make phones that were as good or better than Apple and once that happened, Apple would collapse and fade away to oblivion. Obviously that didn't happen.


I feel like lots of people felt about Apple back then, i.e. Tesla's got some pretty good products, but their lead in the space can't last for much longer and when all the big car companies get into this space, Tesla won't be able to keep their lead up anymore. 
They may be a fine niche car maker with a good brand, but their current market cap cannot be justified in that scenario, where they are a top 20 car maker not a top 5. 
Now I have no idea whether they will go the way of most startups and fail after being targeted by the "big players" or they will, like Apple, prove everyone wrong, but the former seems more likely than the latter.


Charging infrastructure is not as big of a competitive advantage as you might think.  Government (federal/state/local) are all trying to push for more infrastructure and many private companies are trying to do the same.  If you look at this map, you can toggle on and off the superchargers and see that, their network is significant, no doubt about it, but you're not going to be stranded if you only had to use non-Tesla branded chargers, though you may have to pay.
 
https://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC

edited to add: These large battery electric vehicles don't really need local charging since you can go 200+ miles on a charge and you'll be at home (and able to charge) much more frequently than every 200 miles.  It's only on longer inter-city trips that you'll need charging infrastructure and that's more straightforward to install with decent coverage (along interstates, US highways etc. . .).
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Freedomin5 on March 24, 2018, 05:27:21 AM
Nobody’s mentioned what Tesla is doing in China. There are quite a few Teslas on the road. And I’m sure they’re probably building super charging thingies throughout China.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: tyler2016 on March 24, 2018, 07:52:02 AM
Forget the cars for a moment. Right now Tesla has a market cap on par with GM, Ford, and the other big automakers. Take a look at Tesla's revenue and assets compared to those. Even with an insane growth rate, it would be a long time before making any money based on increased book value or earnings. Any return at this point will most likely be speculative. I'm not a CFA or anything, but I don't recommend any serious investment in individual securities unless you have read Benjamin Graham's books The Intelligent Investor and Security Analysis.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: forummm on March 24, 2018, 08:41:46 AM
Buying TSLA shares is a great idea. But only if your goal is to learn what it feels like to have a stock you own go to zero in a bankruptcy. It's the single best short in a market full of overvalued companies. The unsecured bondholders will also lose most of their money (and bondholders have to get 100% of their money back before shareholders get a penny). I think the odds of bankruptcy this year are over 10% and over 70% by the end of next year. They will lose about $1 billion this quarter, and the same next quarter, and will lose at least $500 million per quarter even if they eventually can start making 5000 Model 3's per week (which I don't think they can do until next year, even if they are still in business).

The stock price got so out of control because of incredibly naive people who have no idea what they are doing with investing, but did listen to the media worship and maniacal proclamations from Musk (who routinely intentionally misleads investors in order to separate them from their cash). People are going to lose enormous amounts of money as reality hits. Don't be one of those people.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: forummm on March 24, 2018, 08:46:23 AM
Tesla intends to be more than just a car company. It’s woefully unprofitable. However, so has been amazon throughout its life.

It's amazing how the canard that Tesla has any similarities to Amazon persists. Amazon has had persistently strong positive cash flow for almost 2 decades. Tesla has had persistently strong cash burn for their entire 14 years. Tesla is 100% dependent on frequent infusions of fresh investor cash while Amazon is entirely self funded. As soon as Tesla runs out of enough gullible donors to their massive cash bonfire, bankruptcy will incur. Amazon is merely hugely overvalued. Tesla is a $0.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: SnackDog on March 24, 2018, 09:03:38 AM
Model 3 ramp-up will determine the fate of Tesla.  They will either figure out the production problems and ramp up soon or they will run out of cash and investors will sue, sort of like Tucker.  It could be a very, very exciting stock to own, either way.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: nick663 on March 24, 2018, 09:14:04 AM
Tesla seems to have some fundamental flaws and I believe they all track back to Elon.  He is a visionary but he needs to be insulated from the manufacturing side of the business because his late changes and micromanagement does not mesh well with design freezes and the manufacture of a product.  The bad part is they are located in an area that is short on manufacturing experience so few are challenging his ideas.

On top of that, their market cap is on par with automakers that already mass manufacture vehicles at a large profit.  If everything goes perfectly, TSLA should have a valuation in the region it's at right now... and there is nothing in Tesla's past to demonstrate things will go perfectly (much the opposite).
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: BTDretire on March 24, 2018, 09:14:39 AM
The conventional wisdom is,
"Buy low and sell high, and if it doesn't go up don't buy it."
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: forummm on March 24, 2018, 09:29:26 AM
Model 3 ramp-up will determine the fate of Tesla.  They will either figure out the production problems and ramp up soon or they will run out of cash and investors will sue, sort of like Tucker.  It could be a very, very exciting stock to own, either way.

Even if they ramp up the Model 3 soon they will still be losing several billion dollars per year. They lose money on the S, X, and 3.

Also the "Model 3 ramp" is one of the canards that Musk has gotten investors and the media to believe. No other car maker has a production ramp. They just go through all the development and testing of the vehicle (which Tesla skipped) and then turn on the switch at the factory and start mass producing cars. The new Leaf just came on the market and they are already selling about 10,000 per month. No "ramp", no quality problems, no massive losses, and no restriction of which version of the car is available. Just cars that work and are available.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on March 24, 2018, 09:53:26 AM
Model 3 ramp-up will determine the fate of Tesla.  They will either figure out the production problems and ramp up soon or they will run out of cash and investors will sue, sort of like Tucker.  It could be a very, very exciting stock to own, either way.

Even if they ramp up the Model 3 soon they will still be losing several billion dollars per year. They lose money on the S, X, and 3.

Um, no. The "Lose money on S and X" is something being pushed by Seeking Alpha and the other shorts. Tesla has a healthy gross profit on the S and the X. They're dumping a lot of money into SG&A (building superchargers, service centers, et cetera) and R&D (autonomous driving, semi, pickup truck, crossover "model Y", storage, solar roof, etc.)

Model 3 had depreciation for the production line spread across a couple thousand cars last year. Having it spread across ~100x as many will help a lot.

Quote

Also the "Model 3 ramp" is one of the canards that Musk has gotten investors and the media to believe. No other car maker has a production ramp. They just go through all the development and testing of the vehicle (which Tesla skipped) and then turn on the switch at the factory and start mass producing cars. The new Leaf just came on the market and they are already selling about 10,000 per month. No "ramp", no quality problems, no massive losses, and no restriction of which version of the car is available. Just cars that work and are available.

The new Leaf isn't a brand new design on a brand new production line. It's being produced on the same lines as the prior Leaf. It's just a model year improvement. Huge difference.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on March 24, 2018, 09:59:22 AM
1 stock is always dangerous unless you have the extra money to play with.

As for the car itself..... I don't like it. My buddy has one. We had the choice and chose a Maserati. While he was looking for a charging station we were driving all we wanted to. If he leaves his house in Austin he has to plan to stop in Waco to charge if he comes to our house in Fort Worth. And it's not just a quick thing like a fill-up is. They are making great strides with batteries and hopefully they get it figured out so I can enjoy it but I doubt it.

Depends how often he drives from Austin to Ft. Worth (or other long distance travel) - the rest of the time he can just recharge overnight in the garage instead of having to go to the gas station.  With a new Tesla - if he stays overnight and you have a dryer outlet in your garage (or he stays at a hotel with a destination charger) - he has no need to stop either direction. If he has an older S60, he might need to top off for 5 minutes at the Supercharger.

That "not just a quick thing" to Supercharge is still FAR faster than any other charging network for any other car. Agreed that it's just a barely tolerable recharge speed.

Disclosure: I do have a Model 3 reservation. I only own the stock as part of VTI.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: MayDay on March 24, 2018, 10:12:27 AM
I find their issues getting the cheap car manufactured to be fascinating.

I hope eventually be some tell all's come put about it.

What the hell is going so wrong? Anyone have speculation?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Adam Zapple on March 24, 2018, 12:22:25 PM
I own the stock because after missing the boat on Amazon, Netflix and Apple, I decided that, even though they appear to be overvalued at current levels, I wasn't going to miss the boat on another potential "game changer."  As others have suggested, I only invest in individual companies with fun money.  I'm up about 35% on it and have a stop-loss set so I can't lose anything on it.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on March 24, 2018, 07:49:04 PM
I find their issues getting the cheap car manufactured to be fascinating.

I hope eventually be some tell all's come put about it.

What the hell is going so wrong? Anyone have speculation?

Well, they had a plan to reach a 10k/week rate by the end of 2020 (originally expressed as a "500k/year rate by the end of 2020, which is the same thing, but was repeatedly misinterpreted as 500k IN 2020, so they switched to talking about weekly rate)

When the response to the unveiling was so overwhelming (~400k reservations) - they said they would try to reach that rate by 2018, pulling it in two whole years. This is an insanely aggressive schedule for a brand new car design on a brand new production line different from any production line they have done before. Plus brand new automated battery pack production facilities for their brand new larger 2170 cells.

From what they have said, the main bottleneck was the new automated pack assembly.  This is apparently being resolved - the number of VIN registrations went WAY up last week.

The whole "going so wrong" is overblown. Multiple estimates have put Model 3 production for January and February ahead of Bolt production - and Bolt had already been in production for a year before Model 3. Additionally, GM outsources the powertrain (including pack assembly) to LG, and has FAR longer history building cars and FAR more experienced workforce on the assembly line.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: nick663 on March 24, 2018, 09:33:14 PM
I find their issues getting the cheap car manufactured to be fascinating.

I hope eventually be some tell all's come put about it.

What the hell is going so wrong? Anyone have speculation?

Well, they had a plan to reach a 10k/week rate by the end of 2020 (originally expressed as a "500k/year rate by the end of 2020, which is the same thing, but was repeatedly misinterpreted as 500k IN 2020, so they switched to talking about weekly rate)

When the response to the unveiling was so overwhelming (~400k reservations) - they said they would try to reach that rate by 2018, pulling it in two whole years. This is an insanely aggressive schedule for a brand new car design on a brand new production line different from any production line they have done before. Plus brand new automated battery pack production facilities for their brand new larger 2170 cells.

From what they have said, the main bottleneck was the new automated pack assembly.  This is apparently being resolved - the number of VIN registrations went WAY up last week.

The whole "going so wrong" is overblown. Multiple estimates have put Model 3 production for January and February ahead of Bolt production - and Bolt had already been in production for a year before Model 3. Additionally, GM outsources the powertrain (including pack assembly) to LG, and has FAR longer history building cars and FAR more experienced workforce on the assembly line.
It's not overblown at all.  The original target was to produce 5,000 cars per week by the end of 2017.  They now say they will hit that target by the end of Q2.  6 months late to a production target is a huge deal.

The Bolt comparison is bs as well as that was never promised as a high volume car and they still had to idle the plant last year due to a lack of demand.  Days of inventory is low right now but that may be by design as they know the demand right now is frustrated Model 3.  If Tesla pulls a miracle and actually hits a deadline (there is a first time for everything) they don't want to be sitting on 70 days of inventory.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: HermanCain on March 25, 2018, 12:16:45 AM
You didn't miss the boat on Amazon. Its shareprice does not reflect its actual value as a share. Basically, there is a lot of speculation behind its shareprice.

Yes, it has a HUGE growth. But that does not mean that dividends even really exist. Management chooses to expand as there is room for that--walmart and costco are competitors. Walmart's revenue is 400 billion last I checked, so there is a way to go.

You missed the boat of speculative investors. I don't think you really missed anything.

If you want to invest, as a strategy, in beating the speculators, you're banking on predicting the future. Nobody can do that.

If you owned VSTAX you would come out fine...
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on March 25, 2018, 01:20:43 PM
I find their issues getting the cheap car manufactured to be fascinating.

I hope eventually be some tell all's come put about it.

What the hell is going so wrong? Anyone have speculation?

Well, they had a plan to reach a 10k/week rate by the end of 2020 (originally expressed as a "500k/year rate by the end of 2020, which is the same thing, but was repeatedly misinterpreted as 500k IN 2020, so they switched to talking about weekly rate)

When the response to the unveiling was so overwhelming (~400k reservations) - they said they would try to reach that rate by 2018, pulling it in two whole years. This is an insanely aggressive schedule for a brand new car design on a brand new production line different from any production line they have done before. Plus brand new automated battery pack production facilities for their brand new larger 2170 cells.

From what they have said, the main bottleneck was the new automated pack assembly.  This is apparently being resolved - the number of VIN registrations went WAY up last week.

The whole "going so wrong" is overblown. Multiple estimates have put Model 3 production for January and February ahead of Bolt production - and Bolt had already been in production for a year before Model 3. Additionally, GM outsources the powertrain (including pack assembly) to LG, and has FAR longer history building cars and FAR more experienced workforce on the assembly line.
It's not overblown at all.  The original target was to produce 5,000 cars per week by the end of 2017.  They now say they will hit that target by the end of Q2.  6 months late to a production target is a huge deal.

The Bolt comparison is bs as well as that was never promised as a high volume car and they still had to idle the plant last year due to a lack of demand.  Days of inventory is low right now but that may be by design as they know the demand right now is frustrated Model 3.  If Tesla pulls a miracle and actually hits a deadline (there is a first time for everything) they don't want to be sitting on 70 days of inventory.

No, the ORIGINAL target for Model 3 was 10k/week at the end of 2020. As I already stated. They attempted to speed that up to meet overwhelming customer demand, and made multiple statements that they expected to miss the revised targets. They also said they expected to miss the July 2017 planned start of production.

Why is Bolt comparison BS? They have many thousands of outstanding outside the US - years worth in some markets.  GM also promoted it as the first practical, mass market EV

Entirely a fair comparison. Unless you think GM is just intentionally dragging their feet - which is a plausible perspective.

Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: nick663 on March 25, 2018, 01:59:20 PM
I find their issues getting the cheap car manufactured to be fascinating.

I hope eventually be some tell all's come put about it.

What the hell is going so wrong? Anyone have speculation?

Well, they had a plan to reach a 10k/week rate by the end of 2020 (originally expressed as a "500k/year rate by the end of 2020, which is the same thing, but was repeatedly misinterpreted as 500k IN 2020, so they switched to talking about weekly rate)

When the response to the unveiling was so overwhelming (~400k reservations) - they said they would try to reach that rate by 2018, pulling it in two whole years. This is an insanely aggressive schedule for a brand new car design on a brand new production line different from any production line they have done before. Plus brand new automated battery pack production facilities for their brand new larger 2170 cells.

From what they have said, the main bottleneck was the new automated pack assembly.  This is apparently being resolved - the number of VIN registrations went WAY up last week.

The whole "going so wrong" is overblown. Multiple estimates have put Model 3 production for January and February ahead of Bolt production - and Bolt had already been in production for a year before Model 3. Additionally, GM outsources the powertrain (including pack assembly) to LG, and has FAR longer history building cars and FAR more experienced workforce on the assembly line.
It's not overblown at all.  The original target was to produce 5,000 cars per week by the end of 2017.  They now say they will hit that target by the end of Q2.  6 months late to a production target is a huge deal.

The Bolt comparison is bs as well as that was never promised as a high volume car and they still had to idle the plant last year due to a lack of demand.  Days of inventory is low right now but that may be by design as they know the demand right now is frustrated Model 3.  If Tesla pulls a miracle and actually hits a deadline (there is a first time for everything) they don't want to be sitting on 70 days of inventory.

No, the ORIGINAL target for Model 3 was 10k/week at the end of 2020. As I already stated. They attempted to speed that up to meet overwhelming customer demand, and made multiple statements that they expected to miss the revised targets. They also said they expected to miss the July 2017 planned start of production.

Why is Bolt comparison BS? They have many thousands of outstanding outside the US - years worth in some markets.  GM also promoted it as the first practical, mass market EV

Entirely a fair comparison. Unless you think GM is just intentionally dragging their feet - which is a plausible perspective.
Please provide evidence of that original Model 3 target because I was not aware of that and my google skills are letting me down.

The Bolt comparison is BS because factories are set up around a specific volume.  All indications are that GM used a volume of around 30k units annually for the Bolt which is the pace they were being produced in the 2nd half of last year.  You can't compare that to Tesla who has a factory built around building 500k vehicles per year but delivered 1550 in Q4 last year (when they were supposed to be building 5k/week) and claim that Tesla is doing well.  The amount of investment at Fremont is staggering and running at a fraction of capacity is a money losing proposition.

Also, GM is increasing production later this year of the Bolt: https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/03/08/why-does-general-motors-want-to-boost-production-o.aspx
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on March 25, 2018, 03:13:04 PM

Please provide evidence of that original Model 3 target because I was not aware of that and my google skills are letting me down.
Sure thing. Here's an article written when the change was made:

https://electrek.co/2016/05/04/tesla-tsla-surge-model-3-production/

Quote

The Bolt comparison is BS because factories are set up around a specific volume.  All indications are that GM used a volume of around 30k units annually for the Bolt which is the pace they were being produced in the 2nd half of last year.  You can't compare that to Tesla who has a factory built around building 500k vehicles per year but delivered 1550 in Q4 last year (when they were supposed to be building 5k/week) and claim that Tesla is doing well.  The amount of investment at Fremont is staggering and running at a fraction of capacity is a money losing proposition.

Also, GM is increasing production later this year of the Bolt: https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/03/08/why-does-general-motors-want-to-boost-production-o.aspx

I should hope GM would boost production later this year. January + February projects out to about 15k Bolts in 2018, which is just pitiful.

I won't say Tesla is doing well with their ramp, but the delays are understandable. They are a new car company that 6 years ago had never produced a single car on an assembly line. They are trying to set up a new and very different assembly line on a brand new model. 

The factory is not "set up" for that full production yet. They will have to add more equipment (possibly a full additional assembly line) for 10k/week (500k/year) of Model 3.

Basically, they are failing to meet the accelerated goals - they are on track to meet the original goals from early 2016:

5k cars per week by the end of 2018
10k cars per week by the end of 2020

We will learn more in early April when they release quarterly numbers. One hopeful sign is the increase in Model 3 VIN numbers registered - almost 4,700 last week.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: nick663 on March 25, 2018, 03:32:41 PM

Please provide evidence of that original Model 3 target because I was not aware of that and my google skills are letting me down.
Sure thing. Here's an article written when the change was made:

https://electrek.co/2016/05/04/tesla-tsla-surge-model-3-production/
Looking back, it looks like we were talking about 2 different targets.  I was talking about the 5k/week target for end of 2017 that I'm not aware of changing at any point.  You were talking about the 10k/week target by end of 2018 which did move up, as your link showed.

Did the 5k/week target ever change?  Because that is the target they have missed massively and I was trying to find evidence of.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on March 25, 2018, 06:57:59 PM

Please provide evidence of that original Model 3 target because I was not aware of that and my google skills are letting me down.
Sure thing. Here's an article written when the change was made:

https://electrek.co/2016/05/04/tesla-tsla-surge-model-3-production/
Looking back, it looks like we were talking about 2 different targets.  I was talking about the 5k/week target for end of 2017 that I'm not aware of changing at any point.  You were talking about the 10k/week target by end of 2018 which did move up, as your link showed.

Did the 5k/week target ever change?  Because that is the target they have missed massively and I was trying to find evidence of.

5k/week was always an interim target, originally planned as the full output of the first Model 3 production line once optimized - I'm pretty sure it was end of 2018 for the original target - but it's probably buried in some investor conference call or conference and I'm not going to spend the time to comb it out. The 10k/week rate was planned once a second full production line was set up.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ChpBstrd on March 25, 2018, 09:08:50 PM
TSLA stock is a hyper-speculative bet on the future of one company's line of R&D (on the flip side, TSLA is one of the few American companies still investing in R&D).

And no, nobody on this forum or Seeking Alpha knows squat about how well they will produce cars over the next 2 years, what engineering challenges are coming, etc.

It would be nice to catch the upside of Tesla if it happens, and cap one's losses if it doesn't. Here's how to do that:
Buy the $300 call option maturing in January 2020. Risk is about $78 (price of option) instead of $301 (price of stock). If Tesla succeeds with the launch of its current products and the share price skyrockets, you will receive the upside times 3.84x leverage. If Tesla fails to get mass production off the ground or gets cut off from investor funds or whatever, you'll be glad to have only lost $78!

TL;DR: obtain almost 4x upside leverage while risking only a fraction of the money.

Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on March 25, 2018, 10:06:28 PM
I've been a Tesla investor for about 4 years now and TSLA stock comprises about 5% of our net worth. My earliest stock purchases were made around $180/share.  Tesla has been a good long term investment thus far and I believe it will continue to be so for years to come. In the grand scheme, for a long-term investor, the slow Model 3 ramp is really inconsequential.  Five years from now it will not matter whether it took them an extra six months to get production up to 5k/week. We saw similar delays with the Model X and Model S ramps and both cars are leaders in there respective luxury classes with extremely high customer satisfaction and ratings.

The bottom line is electric vehicles have several key advantages over ICE vehicles. I have been a Nissan Leaf owner since 2013.

Nearly silent electric motor, most of what you hear is simply road noise.
Instant torque and superior acceleration.
No motor oil, gas, transmission fluid, radiator, etc. and very few moving parts mean reduced maintenance costs and the electric drive train can easily last 500k+ miles because you no longer have the wear and tear brought about by extreme heat and friction
Refuel at home overnight using a 110 or 220 outlet. I use a 110 outlet in my garage.
You can produce your own transportation fuel with solar panels (I've had a PV system since 2007)

Those saying that established ICE car manufacturers will simply crush Tesla are missing the point. Part of Elon's plan was to force the established majors to get serious about their EV offerings, and that is starting to happen. I suspect some will see the light too late and go bankrupt, some will go on to sell millions of EVs. Tesla doesn't need to dominate this new market. Even a 5% world market share would make Tesla wildely profitable. One also needs to consider that for the foreseeable future the supply of batteries will be the limiting factor in scaling EV production. I'm not aware of another domestic car manufacturer with plans to build a battery gigafactory like the one Tesla and Panasonic have outside Reno Nevada. That is a serious moat, along with the supercharger network. It doesn't matter how many EVs you can build if you don't have the batteries to support that production.

Lastly, Tesla is no longer just an EV company. To date, they are moving into the following areas:

Commercial trucking with the Tesla Semi, which has seen impressive deposits from several giants in the industry
Solar Roof Shingle/Panels
Grid-scale battery storage (see South Australisa grid back-up)
Autonomous Cars
Factory Automation Technology

Each of these alone could be a very profitable stand alone business. I'm not saying Tesla will come to dominate all these sectors, but I like investing in a company that is creating its own electrified ecosystem (production, storage, transportation) and has several avenues to profitability.

Tesla is one of the most shorted stocks in history. That can be frustrating at times as an investor, but it will also set-up a nice (2nd) short squeeze once the Model 3 ramp is confirmed and revenue from the Tesla energy side of the ledger ramps.

Is Tesla a sure thing? Of course not, no single stock is a sure thing, and Tesla is certainly on the higher risk side. Majorty of our investments are in broad based index funds.  For me its simple.  EVs are the future. Once scale is achieved, these cars will be cheaper to own, more fun to drive, easier to maintain, and are better for the planet.  Tesla is best positioned to lead and profit from this revolution.  I am prepared for the consequences if I'm wrong. At this point, I'm well up on my inititial investment and despite the prognostications of the shorts, the stock will never go to zero.  This is not an internet startup. There are physical plants and other tangible assets.  Absolute worst case would be a buy-out.

This is not investing advice.  Do your own research and invest only what you are prepared to lose. I'd suggest starting with a test drive.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Adam Zapple on March 28, 2018, 09:10:39 AM
It's been a rough week
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: CCCA on March 28, 2018, 09:13:52 AM
TSLA is having a bad month here. It’s down almost 30% and it seems like the bad news and negative sentiment is piling up. Can’t tell if it’s just a blip and will rebound or it’s on its way down further.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: boarder42 on March 28, 2018, 09:26:57 AM
i like tesla but to invest your money in a single stock or move a large portion of your AA there is a poor move.  All the big car companies who know how to produce cars will be all electrica by the mid 2020's.  Tesla is a trailblazer and helped pave the way for a cleaner earth but i dont currently see how they continue to grow unless the beat the big guys at automation - which currently it appears GM is winning.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: wordnerd on March 28, 2018, 09:45:05 AM
This WSJ article is helpful primer on the issues Tesla is facing at the moment: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-clock-is-ticking-faster-at-tesla-1522233639
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: SnackDog on March 28, 2018, 04:46:51 PM
Their credit rating is Caa and two pretty senior finance managers recently quit. They need $2B to cover the cash shortfall this year. And the upcoming announcement of Model 3 production will be way below forecast. I suggest you short Tesla.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on March 28, 2018, 05:06:15 PM
I just buy broad-based, low cost index funds ;)
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Indexer on March 28, 2018, 10:11:29 PM
@ColoradoTribe:  I agree EVs will do great things. However, Tesla has to still be around to benefit from that.

They have built amazing cars. They have big dreams for the future. I personally want them to be successful, I want to be able to buy a used Model 3 in the future. I want to be able to have solar with a battery back up. The problem is that investors have been pumping up the stock based on the dreams of what Tesla 'could be,' and not what it is today. Expectations have been set unrealistically high and Tesla has borrowed money based on those expectations.


Quote
Five years from now it will not matter whether it took them an extra six months to get production up to 5k/week.

Actually, in reality, it might matter a lot. It could be the difference between Tesla producing 1 million cars/year in 5 years VS bankruptcy within 12 months. Tesla will need more funding soon. Bond investors don't live in the clouds, they don't trade based on dreams of what could be in 5-10 years. Bond investors like results, and they like those results printed on boring balance sheets and cash flow statements. If Tesla doesn't increase Model 3 production, FAST, like really FAST, then the next time they issue bonds they might not find willing investors. Tesla isn't Apple or Google, or even Ford. Those companies have cash on hand. They can handle shocks. They can recover from mistakes. Tesla is running on borrowed money and broken promises. Many great companies have fallen prey to big dreams... and too much leverage.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on March 28, 2018, 11:16:04 PM
@ColoradoTribe:  I agree EVs will do great things. However, Tesla has to still be around to benefit from that.

They have built amazing cars. They have big dreams for the future. I personally want them to be successful, I want to be able to buy a used Model 3 in the future. I want to be able to have solar with a battery back up. The problem is that investors have been pumping up the stock based on the dreams of what Tesla 'could be,' and not what it is today. Expectations have been set unrealistically high and Tesla has borrowed money based on those expectations.


Quote
Five years from now it will not matter whether it took them an extra six months to get production up to 5k/week.

Actually, in reality, it might matter a lot. It could be the difference between Tesla producing 1 million cars/year in 5 years VS bankruptcy within 12 months. Tesla will need more funding soon. Bond investors don't live in the clouds, they don't trade based on dreams of what could be in 5-10 years. Bond investors like results, and they like those results printed on boring balance sheets and cash flow statements. If Tesla doesn't increase Model 3 production, FAST, like really FAST, then the next time they issue bonds they might not find willing investors. Tesla isn't Apple or Google, or even Ford. Those companies have cash on hand. They can handle shocks. They can recover from mistakes. Tesla is running on borrowed money and broken promises. Many great companies have fallen prey to big dreams... and too much leverage.

People have been predicting Tesla's imminent bankruptcy and demise for as long as I've been following the company/stock. I bought more common shares today and will sleep well tonight. Those aligned against this company and its disruption (not you personally) know that once the model 3 ramp is complete that Tesla becomes profitable and this narrative goes away, so they're milking it one last time. I see indication that the model 3 ramp has picked up to 1500 - 2000/week the past week or two. They'll likely hit 2500/week in the first of Q2, in plenty of time to satisfy bond investors. There was a chance of Tesla failing in the early going, the chances of such a failure now are very low IMO. We'll know for sure in a few years.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Gray_ghost on March 29, 2018, 09:27:00 AM
The first time I heard of Tesla they were building electric high performance sports cars.  The idea was to raise capital to later produce consumer electric cars that didn't suck.  I laughed because they started selling them just as gas went up and everyone wanted a good electric car and nobody could afford a high performance electric sports car.  At least not anyone who couldn't already afford a Lamborghini.  The joke was on me.  Tesla had crap timing.  But they had the tech savvy to build a high performance electric car.  Something I should've considered more carefully. Once they got things on an even keel, their stock went from $20 to $200.

I figured I'd already missed the big growth opportunity.  But I examined Tesla a little more closely.  The CEO, Elon Musk is a visionary, with his fingers in all sorts of tech pies from rockets to goofy flamethrowers. Tesla is a futuristic company that is near fully automated.  It produces sophisticated automobiles with a fraction of the workforce.  There's a whole thread on this board about how automation will kill jobs.  But for an investor, that's very promising.  So I invested at "the top" of $200.  The stock, while volatile, hasn't disappointed.  I expect it will have serious ups and downs over the next few years.  But overall I think it's a good buy and hold.

Still prefer Index Funds though.


You may want to do some research on this one , although I agree with the rest of your sentiments. I work in the automotive industry and as it sits Tesla is light years behind in automation and one of their largest struggles currently is  LACK of automation.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Ben Hogan on March 29, 2018, 09:35:32 AM
Bloomberg said 1/3 of their income goes straight to interest on loans. That cant be good or last?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: CCCA on March 29, 2018, 10:54:03 AM
@ColoradoTribe:  I agree EVs will do great things. However, Tesla has to still be around to benefit from that.

They have built amazing cars. They have big dreams for the future. I personally want them to be successful, I want to be able to buy a used Model 3 in the future. I want to be able to have solar with a battery back up. The problem is that investors have been pumping up the stock based on the dreams of what Tesla 'could be,' and not what it is today. Expectations have been set unrealistically high and Tesla has borrowed money based on those expectations.


Quote
Five years from now it will not matter whether it took them an extra six months to get production up to 5k/week.

Actually, in reality, it might matter a lot. It could be the difference between Tesla producing 1 million cars/year in 5 years VS bankruptcy within 12 months. Tesla will need more funding soon. Bond investors don't live in the clouds, they don't trade based on dreams of what could be in 5-10 years. Bond investors like results, and they like those results printed on boring balance sheets and cash flow statements. If Tesla doesn't increase Model 3 production, FAST, like really FAST, then the next time they issue bonds they might not find willing investors. Tesla isn't Apple or Google, or even Ford. Those companies have cash on hand. They can handle shocks. They can recover from mistakes. Tesla is running on borrowed money and broken promises. Many great companies have fallen prey to big dreams... and too much leverage.

People have been predicting Tesla's imminent bankruptcy and demise for as long as I've been following the company/stock. I bought more common shares today and will sleep well tonight. Those aligned against this company and its disruption (not you personally) know that once the model 3 ramp is complete that Tesla becomes profitable and this narrative goes away, so they're milking it one last time. I see indication that the model 3 ramp has picked up to 1500 - 2000/week the past week or two. They'll likely hit 2500/week in the first of Q2, in plenty of time to satisfy bond investors. There was a chance of Tesla failing in the early going, the chances of such a failure now are very low IMO. We'll know for sure in a few years.


Sure people have predicted bankruptcy before but past performance cannot be extrapolated forward.  This is clearly make-or-break time for Tesla.  In the past investors have bailed them out, by giving them more cash.  However, given that this is what the company has been shooting for, the high-volume, mass market EV, if they can be successful in ramping up production (and have enough demand) then they should be okay.  If not, they may go bankrupt in the next 1-12 months. 


However, even if they are successful at their ramp up, the main remaining potential worry that I see is that they will likely not be a top-5 automaker and thus cannot justify their market cap.  Once they stop being a company valued on future potential and our desire to see a sustainable transportation future but on actual sales and revenue and profits and reliability and all the other boring stuff that most blue chip companies are judged on, then I see it as unlikely that their sales will be similar to the big car makers.  Remember all the other guys are bringing out EVs and PHEVs too and that car buyers are notoriously picky about their cars in terms of brand, design, model, style, etc. . .  Teslas, despite their cool factor, are not for everyone. Just like Priuses or F-150s or Camrys or Accords aren't.   
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: hodedofome on March 29, 2018, 02:22:30 PM
I have Tesla but it's not the only individual stock I own. I wouldn't tell someone to own index funds + 1 stock you think will do well. Own index funds + a basket of stocks you think will do well. Here's what I have:

Index funds

Volatility trading strategy

Individual Stocks:

Facebook FB
Amazon AMZN
Netflix NFLX
Tesla TSLA
Hubspot HUBS
Salesforce CRM
Shopify SHOP
Ringcentral RNG
Zendesk ZEN
Tencent Holdings TCEHY (Chinese company that owns WeChat which is huge over there)

With individual stocks I take the Peter Lynch approach and buy stuff I use, know and work with. I also consider companies that have super smart people running them, and attract the smartest, most motivated people in the world wanting to work for them. I don't work in biotech, so I have no business buying biotech stocks for the long run. I don't have a clue if this new medicine is gonna work out or not, because I'm not an industry insider.

Because of my job in business to business software sales, I know that everyone is using HUBS, CRM, SHOP, RNG and ZEN. I have 'insider' status in this industry, and the apps that everyone wants to use are probably good investments for the long run.

With FB, AMZN, NFLX and TSLA, those are companies run by their original founders, the founder is a genius and wants to take over the world. That's a decent company to get behind.

Of course, any one of these companies could turn a corner and stop performing well. That's why I hold a basket. I have no clue which company this might happen to, so I don't want a lot of my money tied up into any single stock.

If I have additional money come in, I'd also consider:

Apple AAPL
Google GOOGL
Alibaba BABA
Intuit INTU
Wix.com WIX
GoDaddy GDDY

Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: CorpRaider on March 29, 2018, 05:16:38 PM
Probably not, but I maintain that if you are a vocal Tesla short there is a 97.3% chance you have a micro penis.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: libertarian4321 on March 29, 2018, 06:32:58 PM
I'm a buyer of Tesla.

The car.

Not the stock.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ChpBstrd on March 29, 2018, 09:41:05 PM
I have Tesla but it's not the only individual stock I own. I wouldn't tell someone to own index funds + 1 stock you think will do well. Own index funds + a basket of stocks you think will do well. Here's what I have:

Index funds

Volatility trading strategy

Individual Stocks:

Facebook FB
Amazon AMZN
Netflix NFLX
Tesla TSLA
Hubspot HUBS
Salesforce CRM
Shopify SHOP
Ringcentral RNG
Zendesk ZEN
Tencent Holdings TCEHY (Chinese company that owns WeChat which is huge over there)

With individual stocks I take the Peter Lynch approach and buy stuff I use, know and work with. I also consider companies that have super smart people running them, and attract the smartest, most motivated people in the world wanting to work for them. I don't work in biotech, so I have no business buying biotech stocks for the long run. I don't have a clue if this new medicine is gonna work out or not, because I'm not an industry insider.

Because of my job in business to business software sales, I know that everyone is using HUBS, CRM, SHOP, RNG and ZEN. I have 'insider' status in this industry, and the apps that everyone wants to use are probably good investments for the long run.

With FB, AMZN, NFLX and TSLA, those are companies run by their original founders, the founder is a genius and wants to take over the world. That's a decent company to get behind.

Of course, any one of these companies could turn a corner and stop performing well. That's why I hold a basket. I have no clue which company this might happen to, so I don't want a lot of my money tied up into any single stock.

If I have additional money come in, I'd also consider:

Apple AAPL
Google GOOGL
Alibaba BABA
Intuit INTU
Wix.com WIX
GoDaddy GDDY

You have to be careful with technical knowledge about companies with superior products. The best product/service does not always win or become most profitable. Examples: VHS vs. Betamax, BluRay vs. HD DVD, Microsoft Windows vs. Apple in the 80s-90s, Japanese vs. Harley motorcycles, Huffy bicycles vs. higher quality brands, etc.

Tesla certainly has a lot of engineers who are fans of their products, but their recent troubles illustrate the risks of stock picking based on product attributes.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on March 29, 2018, 10:26:11 PM
@ColoradoTribe:  I agree EVs will do great things. However, Tesla has to still be around to benefit from that.

They have built amazing cars. They have big dreams for the future. I personally want them to be successful, I want to be able to buy a used Model 3 in the future. I want to be able to have solar with a battery back up. The problem is that investors have been pumping up the stock based on the dreams of what Tesla 'could be,' and not what it is today. Expectations have been set unrealistically high and Tesla has borrowed money based on those expectations.


Quote
Five years from now it will not matter whether it took them an extra six months to get production up to 5k/week.

Actually, in reality, it might matter a lot. It could be the difference between Tesla producing 1 million cars/year in 5 years VS bankruptcy within 12 months. Tesla will need more funding soon. Bond investors don't live in the clouds, they don't trade based on dreams of what could be in 5-10 years. Bond investors like results, and they like those results printed on boring balance sheets and cash flow statements. If Tesla doesn't increase Model 3 production, FAST, like really FAST, then the next time they issue bonds they might not find willing investors. Tesla isn't Apple or Google, or even Ford. Those companies have cash on hand. They can handle shocks. They can recover from mistakes. Tesla is running on borrowed money and broken promises. Many great companies have fallen prey to big dreams... and too much leverage.

People have been predicting Tesla's imminent bankruptcy and demise for as long as I've been following the company/stock. I bought more common shares today and will sleep well tonight. Those aligned against this company and its disruption (not you personally) know that once the model 3 ramp is complete that Tesla becomes profitable and this narrative goes away, so they're milking it one last time. I see indication that the model 3 ramp has picked up to 1500 - 2000/week the past week or two. They'll likely hit 2500/week in the first of Q2, in plenty of time to satisfy bond investors. There was a chance of Tesla failing in the early going, the chances of such a failure now are very low IMO. We'll know for sure in a few years.


Sure people have predicted bankruptcy before but past performance cannot be extrapolated forward.  This is clearly make-or-break time for Tesla.  In the past investors have bailed them out, by giving them more cash.  However, given that this is what the company has been shooting for, the high-volume, mass market EV, if they can be successful in ramping up production (and have enough demand) then they should be okay.  If not, they may go bankrupt in the next 1-12 months. 


However, even if they are successful at their ramp up, the main remaining potential worry that I see is that they will likely not be a top-5 automaker and thus cannot justify their market cap.  Once they stop being a company valued on future potential and our desire to see a sustainable transportation future but on actual sales and revenue and profits and reliability and all the other boring stuff that most blue chip companies are judged on, then I see it as unlikely that their sales will be similar to the big car makers.  Remember all the other guys are bringing out EVs and PHEVs too and that car buyers are notoriously picky about their cars in terms of brand, design, model, style, etc. . .  Teslas, despite their cool factor, are not for everyone. Just like Priuses or F-150s or Camrys or Accords aren't.

I think you way over simplify how easy it will be for the ICE manufacturers to turn to EVs, while maintaining their ICE production. Its hard to serve tow master. I would also point out that Tesla's biggest advantage is not their cars per se, its there ability to produce enough batteries for mass produce EVs. Unless I missed it, Ford, and GM do not have a gigafactory to mass produce the Lithium Ion batteries.

As far as valuation, the stock price will almost always stay ahead of the valuation for disruptive growth companies. THat's okay with a buy and hold strategy. Tesla is no longer a "car company", it's an energy and transportation company. As I mentioned above, Tesla is tackling grid scale battery backup/stabiliztion, residential battery storage, commercial trucking, solar roofing shingles, manufacturing automation, self-driving cars, and more. Will Tesla hit a home run with all these, no, but chances are they'll succeed on multiple fronts.

I suggest, instead of going back and forth and likely not change either of our opinions, let's make some predictions and see what happens. Here are my predictions for 2018. Tesla will finish the year:

With at least one, possibly two profitable quarters
Sell over 250,000 vehicles (S, X, M3), which would be 150% YOY growth
Stock price over $400


PS - I also predict the M3 will be named Popular Mechanics 2018 Car of the Year :)
https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/g19605464/best-cars-2018/







Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: nick663 on March 30, 2018, 07:32:18 AM
@ColoradoTribe:  I agree EVs will do great things. However, Tesla has to still be around to benefit from that.

They have built amazing cars. They have big dreams for the future. I personally want them to be successful, I want to be able to buy a used Model 3 in the future. I want to be able to have solar with a battery back up. The problem is that investors have been pumping up the stock based on the dreams of what Tesla 'could be,' and not what it is today. Expectations have been set unrealistically high and Tesla has borrowed money based on those expectations.


Quote
Five years from now it will not matter whether it took them an extra six months to get production up to 5k/week.

Actually, in reality, it might matter a lot. It could be the difference between Tesla producing 1 million cars/year in 5 years VS bankruptcy within 12 months. Tesla will need more funding soon. Bond investors don't live in the clouds, they don't trade based on dreams of what could be in 5-10 years. Bond investors like results, and they like those results printed on boring balance sheets and cash flow statements. If Tesla doesn't increase Model 3 production, FAST, like really FAST, then the next time they issue bonds they might not find willing investors. Tesla isn't Apple or Google, or even Ford. Those companies have cash on hand. They can handle shocks. They can recover from mistakes. Tesla is running on borrowed money and broken promises. Many great companies have fallen prey to big dreams... and too much leverage.

People have been predicting Tesla's imminent bankruptcy and demise for as long as I've been following the company/stock. I bought more common shares today and will sleep well tonight. Those aligned against this company and its disruption (not you personally) know that once the model 3 ramp is complete that Tesla becomes profitable and this narrative goes away, so they're milking it one last time. I see indication that the model 3 ramp has picked up to 1500 - 2000/week the past week or two. They'll likely hit 2500/week in the first of Q2, in plenty of time to satisfy bond investors. There was a chance of Tesla failing in the early going, the chances of such a failure now are very low IMO. We'll know for sure in a few years.


Sure people have predicted bankruptcy before but past performance cannot be extrapolated forward.  This is clearly make-or-break time for Tesla.  In the past investors have bailed them out, by giving them more cash.  However, given that this is what the company has been shooting for, the high-volume, mass market EV, if they can be successful in ramping up production (and have enough demand) then they should be okay.  If not, they may go bankrupt in the next 1-12 months. 


However, even if they are successful at their ramp up, the main remaining potential worry that I see is that they will likely not be a top-5 automaker and thus cannot justify their market cap.  Once they stop being a company valued on future potential and our desire to see a sustainable transportation future but on actual sales and revenue and profits and reliability and all the other boring stuff that most blue chip companies are judged on, then I see it as unlikely that their sales will be similar to the big car makers.  Remember all the other guys are bringing out EVs and PHEVs too and that car buyers are notoriously picky about their cars in terms of brand, design, model, style, etc. . .  Teslas, despite their cool factor, are not for everyone. Just like Priuses or F-150s or Camrys or Accords aren't.

I think you way over simplify how easy it will be for the ICE manufacturers to turn to EVs, while maintaining their ICE production. Its hard to serve tow master. I would also point out that Tesla's biggest advantage is not their cars per se, its there ability to produce enough batteries for mass produce EVs. Unless I missed it, Ford, and GM do not have a gigafactory to mass produce the Lithium Ion batteries.

As far as valuation, the stock price will almost always stay ahead of the valuation for disruptive growth companies. THat's okay with a buy and hold strategy. Tesla is no longer a "car company", it's an energy and transportation company. As I mentioned above, Tesla is tackling grid scale battery backup/stabiliztion, residential battery storage, commercial trucking, solar roofing shingles, manufacturing automation, self-driving cars, and more. Will Tesla hit a home run with all these, no, but chances are they'll succeed on multiple fronts.

I suggest, instead of going back and forth and likely not change either of our opinions, let's make some predictions and see what happens. Here are my predictions for 2018. Tesla will finish the year:

With at least one, possibly two profitable quarters
Sell over 250,000 vehicles (S, X, M3), which would be 150% YOY growth
Stock price over $400


PS - I also predict the M3 will be named Popular Mechanics 2018 Car of the Year :)
https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/g19605464/best-cars-2018/
I don't think you understand how car production works.  Car companies don't build every component of the vehicle, quite the opposite actually.  Yet they manage their supply chain and utilize the competition within it to deliver quality vehicles at a profit.  A battery pack is not a complex assembly and there are existing suppliers out there that can provide it so I doubt you'll see OEMs getting into making them.  And before you say that the Gigafactory is a huge advantage remember that one of the limiting factors on Model 3 production so far has been production at the Gigafactory: https://electrek.co/2017/10/31/tesla-model-3-bottleneck-gigafactory-1-panasonic-ceo-battery/

Also, there is already a M3 on the market so I would skip using that abbreviation for the Model 3. 
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: thd7t on March 30, 2018, 09:05:35 AM
So, I'm pretty opposed to individual stock picking, but I find Tesla interesting.  However, I think that they're a young enough company that they don't have enough cars on the road/batteries on the wall/ships in space/loops underground to know when they'll hit the kinds of major speed bumps that other manufacturers have.  However, they have had a fair sized recall this week (123k vehicles) and I suspect that this will act as a good test of their infrastructure, particularly as they are based on a storefront model and are probably serviced in fewer places.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on March 30, 2018, 10:35:23 AM
Also - this was announced two days ago, before your "prediction" ;)

https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/g19605464/best-cars-2018/

Yes, I know, guess my attempt at humor and smiley face went unnoticed.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: CCCA on March 30, 2018, 01:20:33 PM
@ColoradoTribe:  I agree EVs will do great things. However, Tesla has to still be around to benefit from that.

They have built amazing cars. They have big dreams for the future. I personally want them to be successful, I want to be able to buy a used Model 3 in the future. I want to be able to have solar with a battery back up. The problem is that investors have been pumping up the stock based on the dreams of what Tesla 'could be,' and not what it is today. Expectations have been set unrealistically high and Tesla has borrowed money based on those expectations.


Quote
Five years from now it will not matter whether it took them an extra six months to get production up to 5k/week.

Actually, in reality, it might matter a lot. It could be the difference between Tesla producing 1 million cars/year in 5 years VS bankruptcy within 12 months. Tesla will need more funding soon. Bond investors don't live in the clouds, they don't trade based on dreams of what could be in 5-10 years. Bond investors like results, and they like those results printed on boring balance sheets and cash flow statements. If Tesla doesn't increase Model 3 production, FAST, like really FAST, then the next time they issue bonds they might not find willing investors. Tesla isn't Apple or Google, or even Ford. Those companies have cash on hand. They can handle shocks. They can recover from mistakes. Tesla is running on borrowed money and broken promises. Many great companies have fallen prey to big dreams... and too much leverage.

People have been predicting Tesla's imminent bankruptcy and demise for as long as I've been following the company/stock. I bought more common shares today and will sleep well tonight. Those aligned against this company and its disruption (not you personally) know that once the model 3 ramp is complete that Tesla becomes profitable and this narrative goes away, so they're milking it one last time. I see indication that the model 3 ramp has picked up to 1500 - 2000/week the past week or two. They'll likely hit 2500/week in the first of Q2, in plenty of time to satisfy bond investors. There was a chance of Tesla failing in the early going, the chances of such a failure now are very low IMO. We'll know for sure in a few years.


Sure people have predicted bankruptcy before but past performance cannot be extrapolated forward.  This is clearly make-or-break time for Tesla.  In the past investors have bailed them out, by giving them more cash.  However, given that this is what the company has been shooting for, the high-volume, mass market EV, if they can be successful in ramping up production (and have enough demand) then they should be okay.  If not, they may go bankrupt in the next 1-12 months. 


However, even if they are successful at their ramp up, the main remaining potential worry that I see is that they will likely not be a top-5 automaker and thus cannot justify their market cap.  Once they stop being a company valued on future potential and our desire to see a sustainable transportation future but on actual sales and revenue and profits and reliability and all the other boring stuff that most blue chip companies are judged on, then I see it as unlikely that their sales will be similar to the big car makers.  Remember all the other guys are bringing out EVs and PHEVs too and that car buyers are notoriously picky about their cars in terms of brand, design, model, style, etc. . .  Teslas, despite their cool factor, are not for everyone. Just like Priuses or F-150s or Camrys or Accords aren't.

I think you way over simplify how easy it will be for the ICE manufacturers to turn to EVs, while maintaining their ICE production. Its hard to serve tow master. I would also point out that Tesla's biggest advantage is not their cars per se, its there ability to produce enough batteries for mass produce EVs. Unless I missed it, Ford, and GM do not have a gigafactory to mass produce the Lithium Ion batteries.

As far as valuation, the stock price will almost always stay ahead of the valuation for disruptive growth companies. THat's okay with a buy and hold strategy. Tesla is no longer a "car company", it's an energy and transportation company. As I mentioned above, Tesla is tackling grid scale battery backup/stabiliztion, residential battery storage, commercial trucking, solar roofing shingles, manufacturing automation, self-driving cars, and more. Will Tesla hit a home run with all these, no, but chances are they'll succeed on multiple fronts.

I suggest, instead of going back and forth and likely not change either of our opinions, let's make some predictions and see what happens. Here are my predictions for 2018. Tesla will finish the year:

With at least one, possibly two profitable quarters
Sell over 250,000 vehicles (S, X, M3), which would be 150% YOY growth
Stock price over $400


PS - I also predict the M3 will be named Popular Mechanics 2018 Car of the Year :)
https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/g19605464/best-cars-2018/ (https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/g19605464/best-cars-2018/)


Sure, sounds like fun. 
I predict Tesla won't sell 100,000 model 3's this year (and I think that will be very impressive and a win for them if they get close to 100k ).  Remember that they were shooting for 500k this year. 
I think TSLA won't end the year over $300, and there's a decent chance it'll go below $200 this year.


Remember there were only 200k EVs and PHEVs sold in the US in 2017.  It's not as if there was a supply issue for these vehicles.  It takes time for consumers to become aware of and wrap their minds around the changes that driving a plug-in car entails.  It's not a switch that happens overnight. 
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on March 30, 2018, 01:47:12 PM
I hope Tesla becomes the catalyst for positive transformative change.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Mr Mark on March 31, 2018, 11:25:31 PM
I hope Tesla becomes the catalyst for positive transformative change.

I really think Elon Musk has changed the game. The problem for Tesla is that he was so successful, now 'real' car companies are piling into EVs. Companies that know how to mass produce quality cars.

Once Toyota, Ford, GM, VW, and the coming Chinese wave of EVs get rolling, I think Tesla has a huge problem.  Not only are Tesla struggling to make their delivery targets of a measly few 100,000 cars / yr, they are still burning cash like crazy loosing huge amounts of money. Ford alone make over 30 times as many cars per year as Tesla while making billions in profits.

Tesla may transition to become a successful niche luxury EV brand (like Porsche is for ICV), but I wouldn't touch their stock with a bargepole.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on April 01, 2018, 08:34:21 AM
I hope Tesla becomes the catalyst for positive transformative change.

I really think Elon Musk has changed the game. The problem for Tesla is that he was so successful, now 'real' car companies are piling into EVs. Companies that know how to mass produce quality cars.

Once Toyota, Ford, GM, VW, and the coming Chinese wave of EVs get rolling, I think Tesla has a huge problem.  Not only are Tesla struggling to make their delivery targets of a measly few 100,000 cars / yr, they are still burning cash like crazy loosing huge amounts of money. Ford alone make over 30 times as many cars per year as Tesla while making billions in profits.

Tesla may transition to become a successful niche luxury EV brand (like Porsche is for ICV), but I wouldn't touch their stock with a bargepole.

Perhaps. I really think the Chinese (BYD, etc) are the only ones other than Tesla taking BEVs seriously.

Example: The Chevy Bolt has long waiting lists in several countries (ie, the entire 2018 allocation is waitlisted and they aren't listing for 2019) but production so far in 2018 is actually less than the average for 2017. Loafing along at ~300 cars per week, despite starting production about a year before Model 3.

By contrast, people are complaining that Model 3 production probably isn't 5x (or 10x) as high right now at 2,500 or 5,000 cars per week.

GM is supposed to be the mass market volume production expert. I wish they would show some signs of actually doing so though.

We should get some actual updated production numbers for both in the next few days (quarterly for Tesla, March for GM)
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ChpBstrd on April 01, 2018, 03:04:40 PM
I hope Tesla becomes the catalyst for positive transformative change.

I really think Elon Musk has changed the game. The problem for Tesla is that he was so successful, now 'real' car companies are piling into EVs. Companies that know how to mass produce quality cars.

Once Toyota, Ford, GM, VW, and the coming Chinese wave of EVs get rolling, I think Tesla has a huge problem.  Not only are Tesla struggling to make their delivery targets of a measly few 100,000 cars / yr, they are still burning cash like crazy loosing huge amounts of money. Ford alone make over 30 times as many cars per year as Tesla while making billions in profits.

Tesla may transition to become a successful niche luxury EV brand (like Porsche is for ICV), but I wouldn't touch their stock with a bargepole.

Perhaps. I really think the Chinese (BYD, etc) are the only ones other than Tesla taking BEVs seriously.

Example: The Chevy Bolt has long waiting lists in several countries (ie, the entire 2018 allocation is waitlisted and they aren't listing for 2019) but production so far in 2018 is actually less than the average for 2017. Loafing along at ~300 cars per week, despite starting production about a year before Model 3.

By contrast, people are complaining that Model 3 production probably isn't 5x (or 10x) as high right now at 2,500 or 5,000 cars per week.

GM is supposed to be the mass market volume production expert. I wish they would show some signs of actually doing so though.

We should get some actual updated production numbers for both in the next few days (quarterly for Tesla, March for GM)

Is this a sign, perhaps, that producing EVs is for whatever reason inherently harder than an ICE vehicle?

Or a sign that key resources are in short supply (e.g. cobalt?).
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Travis on April 01, 2018, 03:25:15 PM
I hope Tesla becomes the catalyst for positive transformative change.

I really think Elon Musk has changed the game. The problem for Tesla is that he was so successful, now 'real' car companies are piling into EVs. Companies that know how to mass produce quality cars.

Once Toyota, Ford, GM, VW, and the coming Chinese wave of EVs get rolling, I think Tesla has a huge problem.  Not only are Tesla struggling to make their delivery targets of a measly few 100,000 cars / yr, they are still burning cash like crazy loosing huge amounts of money. Ford alone make over 30 times as many cars per year as Tesla while making billions in profits.

Tesla may transition to become a successful niche luxury EV brand (like Porsche is for ICV), but I wouldn't touch their stock with a bargepole.

Perhaps. I really think the Chinese (BYD, etc) are the only ones other than Tesla taking BEVs seriously.

Example: The Chevy Bolt has long waiting lists in several countries (ie, the entire 2018 allocation is waitlisted and they aren't listing for 2019) but production so far in 2018 is actually less than the average for 2017. Loafing along at ~300 cars per week, despite starting production about a year before Model 3.

By contrast, people are complaining that Model 3 production probably isn't 5x (or 10x) as high right now at 2,500 or 5,000 cars per week.

GM is supposed to be the mass market volume production expert. I wish they would show some signs of actually doing so though.

We should get some actual updated production numbers for both in the next few days (quarterly for Tesla, March for GM)

While GM might be having EV production problems similar to Tesla, they're still selling thousands other cars to stay profitable while they work out whatever issues they might be having.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on April 01, 2018, 07:23:52 PM

Is this a sign, perhaps, that producing EVs is for whatever reason inherently harder than an ICE vehicle?

Or a sign that key resources are in short supply (e.g. cobalt?).
Notionally an EV should be simpler.

Cobalt per se shouldn't be enough to prevent production (there is cobalt, though prices have gone up) - securing a sufficient supply of batteries at an appropriate cost may well be an issue. Apparently Tesla's main cause of the slow ramp was battery pack production (they had plenty of cells on hand, the problem was assembling cells into packs with new automation not working right)

Going forward, cobalt should be less of an issue - almost all the cell manufacturers using a cobalt lithium chemistry are going to low-cobalt versions.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: HermanCain on April 01, 2018, 07:38:36 PM
I would like to add to you people who are considering factors like commodity shortages, etc:

Tesla has one advantage other car companies don't have: connection to an industry (tech) who also, coincidentally, has much to gain from better batteries. The absolute key is battery technology. Tesla may come to have an edge in the technology (on some fundamental chemical level, manufacturing trade secrets, etc). If other automakers can't replicate this, they have a competitive advantage and their share premium would mean something.

On the other hand, there are a lot of "cult" investors. People who blindly believe what the CEO says (who I would not like to malign; he used his platform to convert skeptical country club republicans into electric-fans, I have seen this first-hand).

The stock, if I remember correctly, shot up twice: once after the success of the model s (from 3 billion to 30 billion) and again to around 60 billion. I believe the second rise might signify a fundamental breakthrough. Remember, there are a LOT of smart technologists (this means more than just someone who makes apps) in the bay area--semiconductors, etc. were refined here. Batteries are firmly in their camp. Innovation has to come from Silicon/Lithium Valley. Behind all of the noise of the technology industry, there ARE people actually discovering important things (I don't actually know if this is the case; I have relatives in the upper echelons of the industry who tell me a lot of vaporware exists, especially any life sciences done by consumer electronics companies). But I pray someone with the resources is working on these damn batteries, and that means taking big risks.

A few years ago, Tesla was just a car company willing to put big industry-standard 18650 batteries in cool-looking cars for educational purposes. If they have a battery other car companies don't, it's a different game.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Mr Mark on April 01, 2018, 10:21:17 PM
I would like to add to you people who are considering factors like commodity shortages, etc:

Tesla has one advantage other car companies don't have: connection to an industry (tech) who also, coincidentally, has much to gain from better batteries. The absolute key is battery technology. Tesla may come to have an edge in the technology (on some fundamental chemical level, manufacturing trade secrets, etc). If other automakers can't replicate this, they have a competitive advantage and their share premium would mean something.

On the other hand, there are a lot of "cult" investors. People who blindly believe what the CEO says (who I would not like to malign; he used his platform to convert skeptical country club republicans into electric-fans, I have seen this first-hand).

The stock, if I remember correctly, shot up twice: once after the success of the model s (from 3 billion to 30 billion) and again to around 60 billion. I believe the second rise might signify a fundamental breakthrough. Remember, there are a LOT of smart technologists (this means more than just someone who makes apps) in the bay area--semiconductors, etc. were refined here. Batteries are firmly in their camp. Innovation has to come from Silicon/Lithium Valley. Behind all of the noise of the technology industry, there ARE people actually discovering important things (I don't actually know if this is the case; I have relatives in the upper echelons of the industry who tell me a lot of vaporware exists, especially any life sciences done by consumer electronics companies). But I pray someone with the resources is working on these damn batteries, and that means taking big risks.

A few years ago, Tesla was just a car company willing to put big industry-standard 18650 batteries in cool-looking cars for educational purposes. If they have a battery other car companies don't, it's a different game.

I saw something along these lines, that last year Tesla had locked up some pretty amazing R&D being done at a Canadian University, focused on tweaking the battery formula. With traces of exotic elements they could significantly impact battery life by avoiding the lithium dendrite formation problem, and had combined that with advanced battery testing technology.

Whether that's worth the huge Tesla premium the stock holds right now (even after the correction) is a great question that the OP's query seems to swing on. Certainly there are some big bears short selling the stock like crazy.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: nick663 on April 02, 2018, 06:46:44 AM
I hope Tesla becomes the catalyst for positive transformative change.

I really think Elon Musk has changed the game. The problem for Tesla is that he was so successful, now 'real' car companies are piling into EVs. Companies that know how to mass produce quality cars.

Once Toyota, Ford, GM, VW, and the coming Chinese wave of EVs get rolling, I think Tesla has a huge problem.  Not only are Tesla struggling to make their delivery targets of a measly few 100,000 cars / yr, they are still burning cash like crazy loosing huge amounts of money. Ford alone make over 30 times as many cars per year as Tesla while making billions in profits.

Tesla may transition to become a successful niche luxury EV brand (like Porsche is for ICV), but I wouldn't touch their stock with a bargepole.

Perhaps. I really think the Chinese (BYD, etc) are the only ones other than Tesla taking BEVs seriously.

Example: The Chevy Bolt has long waiting lists in several countries (ie, the entire 2018 allocation is waitlisted and they aren't listing for 2019) but production so far in 2018 is actually less than the average for 2017. Loafing along at ~300 cars per week, despite starting production about a year before Model 3.

By contrast, people are complaining that Model 3 production probably isn't 5x (or 10x) as high right now at 2,500 or 5,000 cars per week.

GM is supposed to be the mass market volume production expert. I wish they would show some signs of actually doing so though.

We should get some actual updated production numbers for both in the next few days (quarterly for Tesla, March for GM)
What is your source of production at ~300 cars per week?  Based on a quick scan of dealer lots around me, there is no shortage of Bolts and the sales nosedive that occurred in 2018 (compared to late 2017) is likely due to the end of a promotion offering employee pricing.

And, to repeat an earlier post: Bolt production was never designed for the volumes of the Model 3 and the investment into manufacturing was significantly less.  You're comparing apples to oranges and disparaging GM despite the fact that it looks like their factory has run at 100% of designed capacity while Tesla is still at a fraction of theirs.

GM delivers more cars in a month than Tesla does in a year while turning a profit.  Talking negatively about their manufacturing capabilities while praising Tesla just makes you look silly.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on April 02, 2018, 08:20:55 AM
I easily purchased a Chevrolet Bolt in mid-December 2017, and I absolutely love the car!!! I got the "Everyone is an Employee GM Discount" along with another 3,500 in discounts.

I hope Tesla will have success in production, Bloomberg has a Tesla 3 production tracker:  https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: CorpRaider on April 02, 2018, 09:21:54 AM
Can any other retail types get a quote on the TLSA bonds?  I'm not seeing them via my brokers (not the convertible ones). 

I personally have a target price (range) where I may be interested (using GM as a comp) but it is a lot lower.  Might do a post if it gets within hailing distance.

I wouldn't short it because Sergey and Larry were already reportedly interested in buying it out back in the day and that was before he built arguably one of the more valuable brands in the world.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Scandium on April 02, 2018, 09:43:23 AM
I remember thinking of throwing a few thousand into tesla stock years ago, just for fun. But I wasn't sure if it would go anywhere. It was ~$30/share. So yes Tesla would be great, fantastic investment in 2012! It's already up 10x. Can it do that again? Only thing that has changed is that they are loosing even more money, and now struggle to produce a different car.

Answer to your question: I have no idea. I suppose my guess is no since I still haven't bought a single share.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on April 02, 2018, 11:03:34 AM
tesla-making-2000-model-3s-per-week

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-making-2000-model-3s-per-week-report-idUSKCN1H91IC
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: CCCA on April 02, 2018, 01:30:10 PM
tesla-making-2000-model-3s-per-week

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-making-2000-model-3s-per-week-report-idUSKCN1H91IC (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-making-2000-model-3s-per-week-report-idUSKCN1H91IC)

Is it bad to point out that achieving a "rate" of 2000/week is potentially the same as saying we made 20 cars in one hour (assuming a 100 hour work week, with shifts)?  The statement doesn't say that they made 2000 cars in one week.  (I can run at a 2 hr marathon pace, but don't ask me how long I can keep it up for).  :)

Anyway, hopefully they are working through their issues and cranking out more cars to satisfy their customers.  I've seen a couple of model 3s around town here the last couple of days.   
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: HermanCain on April 02, 2018, 01:40:47 PM
I would like to add to you people who are considering factors like commodity shortages, etc:

Tesla has one advantage other car companies don't have: connection to an industry (tech) who also, coincidentally, has much to gain from better batteries. The absolute key is battery technology. Tesla may come to have an edge in the technology (on some fundamental chemical level, manufacturing trade secrets, etc). If other automakers can't replicate this, they have a competitive advantage and their share premium would mean something.

On the other hand, there are a lot of "cult" investors. People who blindly believe what the CEO says (who I would not like to malign; he used his platform to convert skeptical country club republicans into electric-fans, I have seen this first-hand).

The stock, if I remember correctly, shot up twice: once after the success of the model s (from 3 billion to 30 billion) and again to around 60 billion. I believe the second rise might signify a fundamental breakthrough. Remember, there are a LOT of smart technologists (this means more than just someone who makes apps) in the bay area--semiconductors, etc. were refined here. Batteries are firmly in their camp. Innovation has to come from Silicon/Lithium Valley. Behind all of the noise of the technology industry, there ARE people actually discovering important things (I don't actually know if this is the case; I have relatives in the upper echelons of the industry who tell me a lot of vaporware exists, especially any life sciences done by consumer electronics companies). But I pray someone with the resources is working on these damn batteries, and that means taking big risks.

A few years ago, Tesla was just a car company willing to put big industry-standard 18650 batteries in cool-looking cars for educational purposes. If they have a battery other car companies don't, it's a different game.

I saw something along these lines, that last year Tesla had locked up some pretty amazing R&D being done at a Canadian University, focused on tweaking the battery formula. With traces of exotic elements they could significantly impact battery life by avoiding the lithium dendrite formation problem, and had combined that with advanced battery testing technology.

Whether that's worth the huge Tesla premium the stock holds right now (even after the correction) is a great question that the OP's query seems to swing on. Certainly there are some big bears short selling the stock like crazy.

What comes to mind in my opinion is a Q/A John Doerr gave at UC Berkeley where he touted some of the battery technology in the pipeline.

The bears shorting the stock are only looking at the numbers in my opinion, and not looking at the huge enthusiasm for the vehicles, the huge pre-orders, and the technology behind EVs.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Car Jack on April 02, 2018, 01:57:36 PM
I wonder what warranty costs are for Tesla.  I've been looking over reviews by owners (who love their cars) and started to notice that many of them have had the drive unit replaced (motor) under warranty, sometimes more than once.  Same for battery packs.  Same for the transmission unit that cannot be repaired, only replaced.  Those with lots of miles (one guy with 250k miles on a Model S) have had to pay for replacements.  Outrageous prices, to the point where it's become a reasonable decision to scrap the car. 

If I need an engine/transmission/drive axle/door handle for my Subaru, I know I can get it reasonably easy for somewhat reasonable money from a junkyard.  Tesla?  Not so much.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ender on April 02, 2018, 09:09:31 PM
TSLA is having a bad month here. It’s down almost 30% and it seems like the bad news and negative sentiment is piling up. Can’t tell if it’s just a blip and will rebound or it’s on its way down further.


I always thought it was a little weird how high up Tesla got in terms of market cap considering the relatively low their revenue was to the other manufacturers they were "worth more than." I mean, Ford had a net income over half the total revenue of Tesla in 2017. That Tesla is valued in the same league seems a bit strange to me.

Having worked in manufacturing, too, it's one thing to make a relatively low volume high end premium item. It's an entirely different story to make mass produced commodity items, which is what the Model 3 is more akin to.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Scandium on April 02, 2018, 09:29:47 PM



The bears shorting the stock are only looking at the numbers in my opinion, and not looking at the huge enthusiasm for the vehicles, the huge pre-orders, and the technology behind EVs.

The bulls touting the stock are not looking at the numbers in my opinion, just looking at the hype .
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: CCCA on April 02, 2018, 09:52:46 PM
The bears shorting the stock are only looking at the numbers in my opinion, and not looking at the huge enthusiasm for the vehicles, the huge pre-orders, and the technology behind EVs.


This thread and these sorts of responses to criticism of Tesla is crystallizing in my mind the issue I have with Tesla.  Though I have been critical of Tesla, I, along with most everyone here, would like Tesla (the company) to do well.  I want them to be successful in mass producing their cars and continue to help bring about EVs as a mainstream product.  However, there's that view of Tesla and then there's Tesla (the stock), which I feel has no business being valued where it is (at this point).

The most obvious question I have is what is the value of the the company (and stock) based on some sort of fundamental analysis?  If we weren't anchored to a price around 200-400 dollars per share (because that's it's recent history) and I were to present to you a description of a company that had the same metrics as Tesla, what is the market cap that you would come up with.  A car company (that may have some proprietary technology, though that's debateable) that is selling 5000-10000 cars per month and hopes to sell 300,000-500,000 in a year or two. I think a market cap between 10-20 billion seems reasonable. You can be optimistic about the where the company is going relative to where it is now (i.e. I think they'll sell 10x cars in 3-4 years) but still be pessimistic about where the stock price should be relative to where it is now (maybe it should be 1/2 the value it is). 
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: jrbrokerr on April 03, 2018, 12:04:37 PM
I've been a Tesla investor for about 4 years now and TSLA stock comprises about 5% of our net worth. My earliest stock purchases were made around $180/share.  Tesla has been a good long term investment thus far and I believe it will continue to be so for years to come. In the grand scheme, for a long-term investor, the slow Model 3 ramp is really inconsequential.  Five years from now it will not matter whether it took them an extra six months to get production up to 5k/week. We saw similar delays with the Model X and Model S ramps and both cars are leaders in there respective luxury classes with extremely high customer satisfaction and ratings.

The bottom line is electric vehicles have several key advantages over ICE vehicles. I have been a Nissan Leaf owner since 2013.

Nearly silent electric motor, most of what you hear is simply road noise.
Instant torque and superior acceleration.
No motor oil, gas, transmission fluid, radiator, etc. and very few moving parts mean reduced maintenance costs and the electric drive train can easily last 500k+ miles because you no longer have the wear and tear brought about by extreme heat and friction
Refuel at home overnight using a 110 or 220 outlet. I use a 110 outlet in my garage.
You can produce your own transportation fuel with solar panels (I've had a PV system since 2007)

Those saying that established ICE car manufacturers will simply crush Tesla are missing the point. Part of Elon's plan was to force the established majors to get serious about their EV offerings, and that is starting to happen. I suspect some will see the light too late and go bankrupt, some will go on to sell millions of EVs. Tesla doesn't need to dominate this new market. Even a 5% world market share would make Tesla wildely profitable. One also needs to consider that for the foreseeable future the supply of batteries will be the limiting factor in scaling EV production. I'm not aware of another domestic car manufacturer with plans to build a battery gigafactory like the one Tesla and Panasonic have outside Reno Nevada. That is a serious moat, along with the supercharger network. It doesn't matter how many EVs you can build if you don't have the batteries to support that production.

Lastly, Tesla is no longer just an EV company. To date, they are moving into the following areas:

Commercial trucking with the Tesla Semi, which has seen impressive deposits from several giants in the industry
Solar Roof Shingle/Panels
Grid-scale battery storage (see South Australisa grid back-up)
Autonomous Cars
Factory Automation Technology

Each of these alone could be a very profitable stand alone business. I'm not saying Tesla will come to dominate all these sectors, but I like investing in a company that is creating its own electrified ecosystem (production, storage, transportation) and has several avenues to profitability.

Tesla is one of the most shorted stocks in history. That can be frustrating at times as an investor, but it will also set-up a nice (2nd) short squeeze once the Model 3 ramp is confirmed and revenue from the Tesla energy side of the ledger ramps.

Is Tesla a sure thing? Of course not, no single stock is a sure thing, and Tesla is certainly on the higher risk side. Majorty of our investments are in broad based index funds.  For me its simple.  EVs are the future. Once scale is achieved, these cars will be cheaper to own, more fun to drive, easier to maintain, and are better for the planet.  Tesla is best positioned to lead and profit from this revolution.  I am prepared for the consequences if I'm wrong. At this point, I'm well up on my inititial investment and despite the prognostications of the shorts, the stock will never go to zero.  This is not an internet startup. There are physical plants and other tangible assets.  Absolute worst case would be a buy-out.

This is not investing advice.  Do your own research and invest only what you are prepared to lose. I'd suggest starting with a test drive.

Where did you saw that Cost of that option ?? I don´t think that one TSLA CALL in 2020 costs just 78usd, even in the stock´s healthy days or days without volatility....
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on April 03, 2018, 12:19:48 PM
Tesla is the only automaker whose production and revenue are growing exponentially. Revenue and production will double again this year. 2000 Model 3s right now is a 100,000 car run rate plus 100,000 they already sell in S and X, and Model 3 production is going to grow the rest of the year. That's nearly $25 billion this year in revenue along with their energy business. That puts them at about 20-25% of the revenue of giants like Ford and GM after only 9 years of releasing their first car. They're in high growth mode. Where that ends, I don't know, but giants in industry fall all the time.

In financial terms, the stock is way overvalued, but the market is the market. You can't say X should be worth Z because of a ratio. Markets aren't rational. Casio and Rolex are both watches.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ender on April 03, 2018, 02:40:58 PM
Tesla is the only automaker whose production and revenue are growing exponentially. Revenue and production will double again this year. 2000 Model 3s right now is a 100,000 car run rate plus 100,000 they already sell in S and X, and Model 3 production is going to grow the rest of the year. That's nearly $25 billion this year in revenue along with their energy business. That puts them at about 20-25% of the revenue of giants like Ford and GM after only 9 years of releasing their first car. They're in high growth mode. Where that ends, I don't know, but giants in industry fall all the time.

In financial terms, the stock is way overvalued, but the market is the market. You can't say X should be worth Z because of a ratio. Markets aren't rational. Casio and Rolex are both watches.

They are also gambling they can ramp up production of electric cars faster than other car manufacturers can develop cost comparable electric cars.



Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Telecaster on April 03, 2018, 02:55:58 PM
Tesla is the only automaker whose production and revenue are growing exponentially. Revenue and production will double again this year. 2000 Model 3s right now is a 100,000 car run rate plus 100,000 they already sell in S and X, and Model 3 production is going to grow the rest of the year. That's nearly $25 billion this year in revenue along with their energy business. That puts them at about 20-25% of the revenue of giants like Ford and GM after only 9 years of releasing their first car. They're in high growth mode. Where that ends, I don't know, but giants in industry fall all the time.

In financial terms, the stock is way overvalued, but the market is the market. You can't say X should be worth Z because of a ratio. Markets aren't rational. Casio and Rolex are both watches.

The other thing that is growing rapidly is the amount of money they are losing, which is growing quite a bit faster than the revenues.  At some point you have to make money, and the trend is in the wrong direction. 
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on April 03, 2018, 05:16:05 PM

What is your source of production at ~300 cars per week?  Based on a quick scan of dealer lots around me, there is no shortage of Bolts and the sales nosedive that occurred in 2018 (compared to late 2017) is likely due to the end of a promotion offering employee pricing.

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

Note that when I posted, the March numbers were not available.

Add January + February, divide by 8.5 = 306 per week.

Quote
And, to repeat an earlier post: Bolt production was never designed for the volumes of the Model 3 and the investment into manufacturing was significantly less.  You're comparing apples to oranges and disparaging GM despite the fact that it looks like their factory has run at 100% of designed capacity while Tesla is still at a fraction of theirs.

GM delivers more cars in a month than Tesla does in a year while turning a profit.  Talking negatively about their manufacturing capabilities while praising Tesla just makes you look silly.

Did I disparage GM in that post? Really? I suggest you re-read.

"GM is supposed to be the mass market volume production expert. I wish they would show some signs of actually doing so though."

This was in the context of other manufacturers not taking EV production seriously.

Your posting seems to totally support what I said. GM delivers more cars in a month than Tesla does in a year, yet didn't design the Bolt line for larger volumes nor work to ramp.

Hmm. Seems to totally agree with my premise that GM is not taking EVs seriously. They COULD produce more EVs, yet continue to fail to do so.

BTW, that Bolt production is shared with the Sonic. GM could readily shift production mix to be heavier on Bolt output.

March production was up slightly, bringing 1Q to an average rate of 336 Bolts per week. My original ~300 actually still stands (one significant digit)
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on April 03, 2018, 05:25:07 PM
tesla-making-2000-model-3s-per-week

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-making-2000-model-3s-per-week-report-idUSKCN1H91IC (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-making-2000-model-3s-per-week-report-idUSKCN1H91IC)

Is it bad to point out that achieving a "rate" of 2000/week is potentially the same as saying we made 20 cars in one hour (assuming a 100 hour work week, with shifts)?  The statement doesn't say that they made 2000 cars in one week.  (I can run at a 2 hr marathon pace, but don't ask me how long I can keep it up for).  :)

Anyway, hopefully they are working through their issues and cranking out more cars to satisfy their customers.  I've seen a couple of model 3s around town here the last couple of days.   

Apparently they have worked through the initial issues and did a full week at that rate, with the same output expected to continue going forward.

That said, I still don't own any Tesla stock, other than whatever fraction of VTI they have.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on April 03, 2018, 08:14:57 PM
At the Detroit Auto Show, the Chevy Bolt was able to be viewed. Compared with all the other electric cars including the very expensive Mercedes and BMW electric models the Bolt was by far the best electric car I saw - the longest range, and overall good styling. However, Tesla had no presence at the auto show so I couldn't really compare the Model 3 with the Bolt.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on April 03, 2018, 10:49:29 PM
Tesla is the only automaker whose production and revenue are growing exponentially. Revenue and production will double again this year. 2000 Model 3s right now is a 100,000 car run rate plus 100,000 they already sell in S and X, and Model 3 production is going to grow the rest of the year. That's nearly $25 billion this year in revenue along with their energy business. That puts them at about 20-25% of the revenue of giants like Ford and GM after only 9 years of releasing their first car. They're in high growth mode. Where that ends, I don't know, but giants in industry fall all the time.

In financial terms, the stock is way overvalued, but the market is the market. You can't say X should be worth Z because of a ratio. Markets aren't rational. Casio and Rolex are both watches.

The other thing that is growing rapidly is the amount of money they are losing, which is growing quite a bit faster than the revenues.  At some point you have to make money, and the trend is in the wrong direction.

Tesla has a healthy profit margin on every car they sell.  Tesla is not "losing" money.  Tesla is plowing revenue back into the business to grow the supercharger network, develop the next line of vehicles (Model Y and Tesla Semi), ramp battery production, etc.  This rapid growth does take a ton of investment, but Tesla is committed to rapid growth. If Tesla stopped growing today, they would have a nice profitable luxury EV business. That's not the mission.  That said, Tesla will likely achieve profitability in the 3rd quarter, once they are churning out the higher end Model 3s at 4k+/week for an entire quarter. 
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Telecaster on April 03, 2018, 11:51:58 PM

Tesla has a healthy profit margin on every car they sell.  Tesla is not "losing" money.  Tesla is plowing revenue back into the business to grow the supercharger network, develop the next line of vehicles (Model Y and Tesla Semi), ramp battery production, etc.  This rapid growth does take a ton of investment, but Tesla is committed to rapid growth. If Tesla stopped growing today, they would have a nice profitable luxury EV business. That's not the mission.  That said, Tesla will likely achieve profitability in the 3rd quarter, once they are churning out the higher end Model 3s at 4k+/week for an entire quarter.

The logic is so tortured I can hear it screaming.  Tesla is spending vastly more than it is making.  The loses are increasing much faster than income. 

By any reasonable standard, GAAP, common sense, or simply eye-balling the cash drawer, Telsa is losing money hand over fist. Now, maybe that's the plan.  And maybe it will pay off in the end.   But Tesla is losing huge amounts of money, and they are losing it at an increasing rate. 

And by the way, back in 2016 Musk said Tesla would be profitable in 2017, instead Tesla racked up its biggest losses ever.  Color me skeptical about the 3Q profits. 



Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on April 04, 2018, 08:15:59 AM

Tesla has a healthy profit margin on every car they sell.  Tesla is not "losing" money.  Tesla is plowing revenue back into the business to grow the supercharger network, develop the next line of vehicles (Model Y and Tesla Semi), ramp battery production, etc.  This rapid growth does take a ton of investment, but Tesla is committed to rapid growth. If Tesla stopped growing today, they would have a nice profitable luxury EV business. That's not the mission.  That said, Tesla will likely achieve profitability in the 3rd quarter, once they are churning out the higher end Model 3s at 4k+/week for an entire quarter.

The logic is so tortured I can hear it screaming.  Tesla is spending vastly more than it is making.  The loses are increasing much faster than income. 

By any reasonable standard, GAAP, common sense, or simply eye-balling the cash drawer, Telsa is losing money hand over fist. Now, maybe that's the plan.  And maybe it will pay off in the end.   But Tesla is losing huge amounts of money, and they are losing it at an increasing rate. 

And by the way, back in 2016 Musk said Tesla would be profitable in 2017, instead Tesla racked up its biggest losses ever.  Color me skeptical about the 3Q profits.

It's really no different than the Amazon model of growth, with lots of losses in the beginning.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on April 04, 2018, 08:30:24 AM

Tesla has a healthy profit margin on every car they sell.  Tesla is not "losing" money.  Tesla is plowing revenue back into the business to grow the supercharger network, develop the next line of vehicles (Model Y and Tesla Semi), ramp battery production, etc.  This rapid growth does take a ton of investment, but Tesla is committed to rapid growth. If Tesla stopped growing today, they would have a nice profitable luxury EV business. That's not the mission.  That said, Tesla will likely achieve profitability in the 3rd quarter, once they are churning out the higher end Model 3s at 4k+/week for an entire quarter.

The logic is so tortured I can hear it screaming.  Tesla is spending vastly more than it is making.  The loses are increasing much faster than income. 

By any reasonable standard, GAAP, common sense, or simply eye-balling the cash drawer, Telsa is losing money hand over fist. Now, maybe that's the plan.  And maybe it will pay off in the end.   But Tesla is losing huge amounts of money, and they are losing it at an increasing rate. 

And by the way, back in 2016 Musk said Tesla would be profitable in 2017, instead Tesla racked up its biggest losses ever.  Color me skeptical about the 3Q profits.

If you do not understand or acknowledge the difference between investing revenue to build out infrastructure and conitune R&D and losing money because it costs more to make your product than you can sell it for, I'm not sure what to say.  It's a fact that Tesla has positive margins on every car it sells. A modern car/eneregy company capable of eventually making a million cars a year does not materialize overnight and does not materialize at all without significant upfront cost/investment. This is not twisted logic, just economics 101. You have to spend money to make money, no business is profitable on day one. Some have longer ramps to profitablity. Even a lemonaide stand has to first buy the lemons. The larger and more complex the business, the longer the ramp to profitability, but also the bigger the upside (see Amazon).
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Proud Foot on April 04, 2018, 08:48:33 AM

Tesla has a healthy profit margin on every car they sell.  Tesla is not "losing" money.  Tesla is plowing revenue back into the business to grow the supercharger network, develop the next line of vehicles (Model Y and Tesla Semi), ramp battery production, etc.  This rapid growth does take a ton of investment, but Tesla is committed to rapid growth. If Tesla stopped growing today, they would have a nice profitable luxury EV business. That's not the mission.  That said, Tesla will likely achieve profitability in the 3rd quarter, once they are churning out the higher end Model 3s at 4k+/week for an entire quarter.

The logic is so tortured I can hear it screaming.  Tesla is spending vastly more than it is making.  The loses are increasing much faster than income. 

By any reasonable standard, GAAP, common sense, or simply eye-balling the cash drawer, Telsa is losing spending money hand over fist. Now, maybe that's the plan.  And maybe it will pay off in the end.   But Tesla is losing spending huge amounts of money, and they are losing spending it at an increasing rate. 

And by the way, back in 2016 Musk said Tesla would be profitable in 2017, instead Tesla racked up its biggest losses ever.  Color me skeptical about the 3Q profits.

If you do not understand or acknowledge the difference between investing revenue to build out infrastructure and conitune R&D and losing money because it costs more to make your product than you can sell it for, I'm not sure what to say.  It's a fact that Tesla has positive margins on every car it sells. A modern car/eneregy company capable of eventually making a million cars a year does not materialize overnight and does not materialize at all without significant upfront cost/investment. This is not twisted logic, just economics 101. You have to spend money to make money, no business is profitable on day one. Some have longer ramps to profitablity. Even a lemonaide stand has to first buy the lemons. The larger and more complex the business, the longer the ramp to profitability, but also the bigger the upside (see Amazon).

I changed Telecaster's quote above to express my sentiment about the company.  They are plowing money back into R&D and infrastructure but have a massively negative cash flow if you remove the financing cash flows. In my opinion they need to continue to ramp up the production and revenues to decrease their operating losses so they can continue to obtain financing to continue operations. It would be interesting to see what Tesla does if they are unable to find someone to underwrite any new stock or bond issues. 
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ChpBstrd on April 04, 2018, 04:22:38 PM
I might have more confidence if Elon Musk was focused instead of attempting to launch a dozen businesses at once.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Travis on April 04, 2018, 04:45:12 PM

Tesla has a healthy profit margin on every car they sell.  Tesla is not "losing" money.  Tesla is plowing revenue back into the business to grow the supercharger network, develop the next line of vehicles (Model Y and Tesla Semi), ramp battery production, etc.  This rapid growth does take a ton of investment, but Tesla is committed to rapid growth. If Tesla stopped growing today, they would have a nice profitable luxury EV business. That's not the mission.  That said, Tesla will likely achieve profitability in the 3rd quarter, once they are churning out the higher end Model 3s at 4k+/week for an entire quarter.

The logic is so tortured I can hear it screaming.  Tesla is spending vastly more than it is making.  The loses are increasing much faster than income. 

By any reasonable standard, GAAP, common sense, or simply eye-balling the cash drawer, Telsa is losing spending money hand over fist. Now, maybe that's the plan.  And maybe it will pay off in the end.   But Tesla is losing spending huge amounts of money, and they are losing spending it at an increasing rate. 

And by the way, back in 2016 Musk said Tesla would be profitable in 2017, instead Tesla racked up its biggest losses ever.  Color me skeptical about the 3Q profits.

If you do not understand or acknowledge the difference between investing revenue to build out infrastructure and conitune R&D and losing money because it costs more to make your product than you can sell it for, I'm not sure what to say.  It's a fact that Tesla has positive margins on every car it sells. A modern car/eneregy company capable of eventually making a million cars a year does not materialize overnight and does not materialize at all without significant upfront cost/investment. This is not twisted logic, just economics 101. You have to spend money to make money, no business is profitable on day one. Some have longer ramps to profitablity. Even a lemonaide stand has to first buy the lemons. The larger and more complex the business, the longer the ramp to profitability, but also the bigger the upside (see Amazon).

I changed Telecaster's quote above to express my sentiment about the company.  They are plowing money back into R&D and infrastructure but have a massively negative cash flow if you remove the financing cash flows. In my opinion they need to continue to ramp up the production and revenues to decrease their operating losses so they can continue to obtain financing to continue operations. It would be interesting to see what Tesla does if they are unable to find someone to underwrite any new stock or bond issues.

Whether Tesla is losing or investing, they appear to have more money going out than coming in at the moment.  As you stated in your last sentence, if they're not running an overall profit, then somebody has to feed them the capital to do whatever it is semantically that they're doing.  How long that "someone" will continue to do so is the primary point of discussion.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Patrick584 on April 04, 2018, 08:04:42 PM
Tesla is a good investment if you invest 0.15% of US equity portfolio. You will have about the same expected return as the market if you pick stocks, but a major deviation from market cap weighting carries a risk of greater volatility. If you want to pick stocks for fun, you should enter a kids stock market game.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ender on April 06, 2018, 06:38:24 AM
If you do not understand or acknowledge the difference between investing revenue to build out infrastructure and conitune R&D and losing money because it costs more to make your product than you can sell it for, I'm not sure what to say.  It's a fact that Tesla has positive margins on every car it sells. A modern car/eneregy company capable of eventually making a million cars a year does not materialize overnight and does not materialize at all without significant upfront cost/investment. This is not twisted logic, just economics 101. You have to spend money to make money, no business is profitable on day one. Some have longer ramps to profitablity. Even a lemonaide stand has to first buy the lemons. The larger and more complex the business, the longer the ramp to profitability, but also the bigger the upside (see Amazon).

Most manufacturing companies don't just aim for the level of sales that Tesla is aiming for though. A slower ramp up is far more sustainable for business growth.

It's possible Tesla will succeed at this. It's also possible they won't.

Having worked as a manufacturing engineer before, the challenges Tesla is facing for ramping up production are definitely non-trivial and ones that companies which have been around much longer and actually running at a profit have difficulties with, too.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: KBecks on April 06, 2018, 07:10:42 AM
I do not follow Tesla stock closely and am not invested in the company.  That said, Tesla stock is volatile.  You have to know that going in and you have to have the stomach to see your shares rise and fall and rise and fall. 

You need to consider your long term investing strategy and how Tesla fits in.  Is this a small, speculative fun money fling, or do you intend to build a significant position in the company?  The other question is -- is Tesla the very best company with the best prospects for you? 

It sounds like you are thinking of gambling, and that's never a good idea.

Lastly I will offer that Amazon's story is not over, and there are many companies out there to learn about and follow.  Personally I would not start out with a big story stock.  I know a lot of Tesla investors and it is an intriguing company.  Take your time and be careful.

Buffet's #1 rule of investing -- Never lose money.   Rule #2 is Never forget rule #1.  How confident are you in the stock's success?

Best wishes!
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on April 06, 2018, 08:56:58 AM
I might have more confidence if Elon Musk was focused instead of attempting to launch a dozen businesses at once.

Apparently there is only so much Elon that the average person can take in a work environment. He's a workaholic. He works full time at Tesla, full time at SpaceX and dabbles in everything else. He's repeatedly said that The Boring Company is a hobby that takes 2-3% of his time. If a billionaire industrialist wants to have a hobby of digging tunnels instead of digging in the garden, who am I to judge?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: alanB on April 06, 2018, 10:12:39 AM

Is this a sign, perhaps, that producing EVs is for whatever reason inherently harder than an ICE vehicle?

Or a sign that key resources are in short supply (e.g. cobalt?).
Notionally an EV should be simpler.

Cobalt per se shouldn't be enough to prevent production (there is cobalt, though prices have gone up) - securing a sufficient supply of batteries at an appropriate cost may well be an issue. Apparently Tesla's main cause of the slow ramp was battery pack production (they had plenty of cells on hand, the problem was assembling cells into packs with new automation not working right)

Going forward, cobalt should be less of an issue - almost all the cell manufacturers using a cobalt lithium chemistry are going to low-cobalt versions.

Has anyone seen The Adventures of Buckaroo Banzai Across the Eighth Dimension?
"What's that thing made of?"
"Cobalt and electricity!"

Cobalt is abundant enough, but unfortunately mostly comes from the DRC.  Those little kids are not digging it up fast enough, sheesh we are trying to save the world here ;P  (satirical)

Trying to predict what will happen in battery technology in the near future is even tougher than predicting what will happen to Tesla.  I think the one thing everyone can agree on is that someone will solve this problem, since the reward is many billions of dollars.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on April 06, 2018, 05:42:11 PM
I'm happy that the Vanguard Total Stock Market index includes some Tesla.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: genesismachine on April 09, 2018, 01:06:37 PM
Those who say there's a good chance of bankruptcy for Tesla, please share your short position. I see options for sale where if Tesla goes bankrupt before Jan 17, 2020, you could multiply your money by ~10x. Certainly if you think there's a 70% chance of bankruptcy, please feel free to buy those. I will teach you how if you'd like.

But my suspicion (and this is the problem with online forums in general) is that those who support Tesla have skin in the game while those who are so very very negative have no skin in the game at all - but please prove me wrong!

Disclosure: I hold 300 shares of Tesla, which is roughly ~15% of my net worth depending on the day.

Here's some food for thought for those who say other manufacturers will crush Tesla:
1. Batteries: Tesla's battery production in 2019 will likely exceed world production in 2016. Battery production issues alone will constrain total electric vehicle production possible
2. Dealerships: Dealerships anti-sell electric cars. They do not usually have more than 1 charging station to charge electric cars. Where will they get the money to install more? Their sales staff are not trained on electric cars. Dealerships make 2/3rds of their money from maintenance, so each electric car they sell will cannibalize their business model.
3. Charging network: While there are more non-Tesla charging stations out there, they are on a dozen different networks all with different payment methods. Plugshare helps to unify some of these issues. However, most non-Tesla charging stations have only one or two bays. They are frequently out of service, and there is no way to check status remotely. They cannot be relied upon. Also, their speeds are very inconsistent - a CCS fast charger could be capable of 40kW or 150kW for example. There is no unified way to look this info up.
4. Lack of true competition: The only Tesla competitor right now is the Chevy Bolt. This is a $40k electric Chevrolet Sonic - a gas car that costs ~$15k. The Tesla Model 3 competes with a BMW 3-series - a gas car that costs ~35-80k. GM loses ~$10k per Bolt, and the design is done by LG - not GM.
5. Lack of incentive: Most US car manufacturers are Truck and SUV manufacturers. For example, last month Ford produced more F-series pickup trucks (~80k) than all of their cars combined (~55k). They are talking about reducing production on their cars because of limited profitability.
6. Innovator's Dilemna: All of this is covered in 'The Innovator's Dilemna'. This is the same reason why Walmart did not create Amazon. IBM did not create Microsoft. Horse companies did not create cars. This type of transformational shift causes companies to retreat upmarket to their most profitable cars - not to try to challenge an unprofitable product. So Ford for example may choose to stop making cars (which aren't that profitable anyways) and focus on their profit centers (SUVs/Trucks), rather than invest money from those profit centers into 'unprofitable' electric cars. Doing otherwise will require a good explanation to shareholders (aka people who care mostly about short term earnings and dividends) - the same shareholders who have the power to fire the CEO.

There is a huge difference between selling a few thousand electric cars a month to enthusiasts and building a profitable business selling millions per year to the mainstream public. This transformational shift will be a lot more difficult for existing automakers than people currently appreciate. The mainstream buyer is not going to pay $40k for a Chevy Sonic.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: sherr on April 09, 2018, 03:39:47 PM
4. Lack of true competition: The only Tesla competitor right now is the Chevy Bolt. This is a $40k electric Chevrolet Sonic - a gas car that costs ~$15k. The Tesla Model 3 competes with a BMW 3-series - a gas car that costs ~35-80k. GM loses ~$10k per Bolt, and the design is done by LG - not GM.

I'm not a Tesla bear, but this I think is not quite right. Tesla's competition right now is the entire automotive market, not just the long-rage BEV-only market.

Even if we ignore gas cars, the Chevy Volt seems to be a well-regarded plug-in hybrid, not to mention the Prius. Plug-in hybrids also completely negate the Dealership and Charging Network points you made.

We're also seeing an enormous wave of PHEV and BEV models being announced for the 2019 model year, and that will probably only accelerate in later years. For Tesla's valuation to make sense you're pretty much betting that they can successfully scale and innovate faster than the entire rest of the auto industry combined. Which they may, and their battery manufacturing is certainly an asset, but I don't think it's obvious that a Tesla victory is the only path forward.

I would love to own a Tesla. But if I'm going to buy another car I need one that has room for at least 3 carseats, and the Model X is a ~$100k car. That's an awful lot of money. What do you want to bet that some other make will come out next year or the one after that makes a minivan or suv for half of that? Could I really opt for the premium Tesla option if there was something else available? Or, since this is the MMM forums, why not a $10k used minivan and save the other $90k for gas? And if I, a Tesla fanboy, will probably never own one, then why would the hoards of Average Joes?

I think the Model 3s really are make-or-break for Tesla. They need to start selling cars priced so that the average person can buy one. And then once they do the cars need to compete with all the other cars at that price-point, you can't assume that the whole population will suddenly become fans of BEVs.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: genesismachine on April 09, 2018, 05:40:32 PM
I think that was my point though. There is no electric competition to Tesla right now, nor will there be anytime soon. Tesla is competing against gas cars, which is definitely an area with a lot of competition.

The closest parallel I see is actually with Apple. Apple was not the first smartphone maker out there, and nobody thought they would succeed with such a wildly expensive phone. But people bought them.

And yes, there were other phone manufacturers out there that dwarfed Apple. And those competitors eventually did take 80% of marketshare and Apple took 20% - but only at great cost to themselves. As the market shifted towards smartphones, the other manufacturers suffered while Apple flourished.

Today, Apple has virtually all of the profit, and their smartphone business is still worth more than all of their competitor's smartphone businesses combined. In fact, there was an article a while back that said literally their only competitor that was turning a profit was Samsung - and they were just barely turning a profit. Most of their competitors were actually losing money holding onto marketshare.

Tesla doesn't need to come out with a cheap electric car for the masses any more than Apple needs to come out with a cheap smartphone. This is the thing that people just don't seem to appreciate. If Tesla can eventually produce even 5% of car sales worldwide (tending towards the more expensive part of the market), and retain a ~20% gross margin, the company will be worth far more than it is today.

PS - We are assuming the non-car part of their business is worth $0, which is also not accurate in the long term.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: thd7t on April 10, 2018, 06:22:09 AM
I think that was my point though. There is no electric competition to Tesla right now, nor will there be anytime soon. Tesla is competing against gas cars, which is definitely an area with a lot of competition.

The closest parallel I see is actually with Apple. Apple was not the first smartphone maker out there, and nobody thought they would succeed with such a wildly expensive phone. But people bought them.

And yes, there were other phone manufacturers out there that dwarfed Apple. And those competitors eventually did take 80% of marketshare and Apple took 20% - but only at great cost to themselves. As the market shifted towards smartphones, the other manufacturers suffered while Apple flourished.

Today, Apple has virtually all of the profit, and their smartphone business is still worth more than all of their competitor's smartphone businesses combined. In fact, there was an article a while back that said literally their only competitor that was turning a profit was Samsung - and they were just barely turning a profit. Most of their competitors were actually losing money holding onto marketshare.

Tesla doesn't need to come out with a cheap electric car for the masses any more than Apple needs to come out with a cheap smartphone. This is the thing that people just don't seem to appreciate. If Tesla can eventually produce even 5% of car sales worldwide (tending towards the more expensive part of the market), and retain a ~20% gross margin, the company will be worth far more than it is today.

PS - We are assuming the non-car part of their business is worth $0, which is also not accurate in the long term.
I have bolded what you misremember, here.  Also, Apple did come out with a cheap smartphone.  However, if your argument is just that Tesla is a luxury car brand, then we shouldn't be discussing it too much on this forum!
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Car Jack on April 10, 2018, 08:20:16 AM
Those who say there's a good chance of bankruptcy for Tesla, please share your short position. I see options for sale where if Tesla goes bankrupt before Jan 17, 2020, you could multiply your money by ~10x. Certainly if you think there's a 70% chance of bankruptcy, please feel free to buy those. I will teach you how if you'd like.

But my suspicion (and this is the problem with online forums in general) is that those who support Tesla have skin in the game while those who are so very very negative have no skin in the game at all - but please prove me wrong!

I'll let the gamblers respond to your challenge.  As a stout 3 fund portfolio guy, I expect that somewhere in my total US market, there's probably some TSLA.  Since there are so many other stocks in the index fund, the fall of TSLA won't hurt me much.  If I were to buy any single stock, it would be BRK.  Why?  It's like a well managed total US stock fund and since it pays no dividends, would cost me zero in tax.

I get that you're a Tesla fanboi.  Nothing wrong with that.  Having enthusiasm over a cool product is nothing bad.  I've always loved light, good handling cars.  I owned a Lotus Elise because of that love.  I didn't buy it because I thought the company was wonderful.  Dany Bahar headed Lotus when I bought my car and not only was he incompetent, he was a total dick and nearly drove the company into bankruptcy.  Tesla needs to do some very well defined tasks to be successful.  They need to scrap the battery pack and go directly to prismatic form cells to fully utilize the space in the pack.  This is the ongoing bottleneck in their production.  They need to figure out how to not have to hand build every battery pack.  They need to learn quality control.  They need to lose some of the complexity for the sake of complexity garbage such as the pop out $900 model S door handles that fail about once a year, the push button electric door exits on the model 3 and the silly pigeon wing doors on the model X.  These are all examples of what the big guys put into prototypes to wow people at car shows but are jettisoned in favor of reliable pieces for production.  I mean really.....what's wrong with a simple loop style external handle on most normal cars.  No stupid electricals to fail, always works, cheap to manufacture, cheap to repair, even Clem down at the Gas n' Go could fix them. 

I've always liked the Model S body shape.  I've also said for a long time that if I wanted to own one, I'd buy one salvage and swap in a Corvette LS engine and rear transaxle (with....of course....a proper manual gearbox).
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Telecaster on April 10, 2018, 08:59:53 AM
Those who say there's a good chance of bankruptcy for Tesla, please share your short position. I see options for sale where if Tesla goes bankrupt before Jan 17, 2020, you could multiply your money by ~10x. Certainly if you think there's a 70% chance of bankruptcy, please feel free to buy those. I will teach you how if you'd like.

But my suspicion (and this is the problem with online forums in general) is that those who support Tesla have skin in the game while those who are so very very negative have no skin in the game at all - but please prove me wrong!

Disclosure: I hold 300 shares of Tesla, which is roughly ~15% of my net worth depending on the day.

Here's some food for thought for those who say other manufacturers will crush Tesla:
1. Batteries: Tesla's battery production in 2019 will likely exceed world production in 2016. Battery production issues alone will constrain total electric vehicle production possible
2. Dealerships: Dealerships anti-sell electric cars. They do not usually have more than 1 charging station to charge electric cars. Where will they get the money to install more? Their sales staff are not trained on electric cars. Dealerships make 2/3rds of their money from maintenance, so each electric car they sell will cannibalize their business model.
3. Charging network: While there are more non-Tesla charging stations out there, they are on a dozen different networks all with different payment methods. Plugshare helps to unify some of these issues. However, most non-Tesla charging stations have only one or two bays. They are frequently out of service, and there is no way to check status remotely. They cannot be relied upon. Also, their speeds are very inconsistent - a CCS fast charger could be capable of 40kW or 150kW for example. There is no unified way to look this info up.
4. Lack of true competition: The only Tesla competitor right now is the Chevy Bolt. This is a $40k electric Chevrolet Sonic - a gas car that costs ~$15k. The Tesla Model 3 competes with a BMW 3-series - a gas car that costs ~35-80k. GM loses ~$10k per Bolt, and the design is done by LG - not GM.
5. Lack of incentive: Most US car manufacturers are Truck and SUV manufacturers. For example, last month Ford produced more F-series pickup trucks (~80k) than all of their cars combined (~55k). They are talking about reducing production on their cars because of limited profitability.
6. Innovator's Dilemna: All of this is covered in 'The Innovator's Dilemna'. This is the same reason why Walmart did not create Amazon. IBM did not create Microsoft. Horse companies did not create cars. This type of transformational shift causes companies to retreat upmarket to their most profitable cars - not to try to challenge an unprofitable product. So Ford for example may choose to stop making cars (which aren't that profitable anyways) and focus on their profit centers (SUVs/Trucks), rather than invest money from those profit centers into 'unprofitable' electric cars. Doing otherwise will require a good explanation to shareholders (aka people who care mostly about short term earnings and dividends) - the same shareholders who have the power to fire the CEO.

There is a huge difference between selling a few thousand electric cars a month to enthusiasts and building a profitable business selling millions per year to the mainstream public. This transformational shift will be a lot more difficult for existing automakers than people currently appreciate. The mainstream buyer is not going to pay $40k for a Chevy Sonic.

A couple thoughts:   

1. Batteries: - Yes, if no one adds battery capacity.  There are quite a few EV battery manufacturers, I don't see how Tesla has a hammer-lock in this area.  Producing batteries in house might give them an edge financially, but maybe not. 

2. Dealerships: - Point taken about the service model, but Tesla can't own its own dealerships in every state, and legacy brands have several orders of magnitude more dealerships than Telsa.  I grew up in a small town (around 15,000 people).  To this day, there is a Ford, Chrysler, and GM dealership that have been there for decades. 

3. Charging network: - I own an electric vehicle (Nissan Leaf). You are vastly over stating the problems with charging networks. 

4. Lack of true competition: - I would modify this as lack of true competition...yet.  Tesla smartly went after the luxury performance market.  Performance, after all, is where EVs crush ICEs.  But while the Chevy Bolt looks like the Chevrolet Sonic, it performs like a BMW.  So it doesn't have the nameplate cache' but its close to the same thing.  And it is flying off the shelves in Europe (badged as the Opel Ampera).  The entire 2018 production is already sold out.  Speaking of BMW, BMW does have a true EV right now (i3 and i3s).  In the next two years or so Jaguar, Audi, Porsche, Austin Martin, and Mercedes have plans to roll out high-end EVs.  Over the next year or two, Hyundai, Kia, and others will join Nissan, Chevrolet, Peugeot, VW, Fiat, Renault, Smart (already the best selling EV brand in Germany), and Ford on the lower end of the market.  That's not counting Chinese automakers.  That's true competition across the whole spectrum of the market. 

5. Lack of incentive: - Lee Iacocca famously said "Mini cars mean mini-profits."  But that's just as true for Tesla as it is for Ford.  The difference is Ford, GM and Chrysler have conventional SUVs and mini-vans to drive profits.  Tesla doesn't.  Remember, a lot of this is driven by regulation.  Nine states including the huge California market already have ZEV mandates, as do several European countries, and next year China will too.  Manufactures must sell a certain percentage of ZEVs if they wish to be relevant.  That's a pretty good incentive. 

6. Innovator's Dilemna - There is another part of that too.  Just because you are first, doesn't mean you succeed.  The Wright Brothers invented the airplane, but they were never more than a bit player in manufacturing.  The number of airlines that have gone bust is too long to mention.  Most of the major carriers that exist today have been through bankruptcy, some more than once.   Or shoot, look at auto companies.  There were a number of manufactures before Ford or Chrysler entered the business.  Most of them didn't survive.  Or computers.  Commodore and Radio Shack came out with PCs the same year as Apple.  Only Apple survived and then just barely. Or cell phones.  Not very long ago, Nokia and Blackberry completely dominated the market.  Nokia sold to Microsoft and Blackberry is a pale shadow of its former self. 

Point is, being first in the pool is no indicator of success.  I wish you and Tesla the best, but I don't see any moat. 


Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: genesismachine on April 10, 2018, 10:52:29 AM
A couple thoughts:   

1. Batteries: - Yes, if no one adds battery capacity.  There are quite a few EV battery manufacturers, I don't see how Tesla has a hammer-lock in this area.  Producing batteries in house might give them an edge financially, but maybe not. 

2. Dealerships: - Point taken about the service model, but Tesla can't own its own dealerships in every state, and legacy brands have several orders of magnitude more dealerships than Telsa.  I grew up in a small town (around 15,000 people).  To this day, there is a Ford, Chrysler, and GM dealership that have been there for decades. 

3. Charging network: - I own an electric vehicle (Nissan Leaf). You are vastly over stating the problems with charging networks. 

4. Lack of true competition: - I would modify this as lack of true competition...yet.  Tesla smartly went after the luxury performance market.  Performance, after all, is where EVs crush ICEs.  But while the Chevy Bolt looks like the Chevrolet Sonic, it performs like a BMW.  So it doesn't have the nameplate cache' but its close to the same thing.  And it is flying off the shelves in Europe (badged as the Opel Ampera).  The entire 2018 production is already sold out.  Speaking of BMW, BMW does have a true EV right now (i3 and i3s).  In the next two years or so Jaguar, Audi, Porsche, Austin Martin, and Mercedes have plans to roll out high-end EVs.  Over the next year or two, Hyundai, Kia, and others will join Nissan, Chevrolet, Peugeot, VW, Fiat, Renault, Smart (already the best selling EV brand in Germany), and Ford on the lower end of the market.  That's not counting Chinese automakers.  That's true competition across the whole spectrum of the market. 

5. Lack of incentive: - Lee Iacocca famously said "Mini cars mean mini-profits."  But that's just as true for Tesla as it is for Ford.  The difference is Ford, GM and Chrysler have conventional SUVs and mini-vans to drive profits.  Tesla doesn't.  Remember, a lot of this is driven by regulation.  Nine states including the huge California market already have ZEV mandates, as do several European countries, and next year China will too.  Manufactures must sell a certain percentage of ZEVs if they wish to be relevant.  That's a pretty good incentive. 

6. Innovator's Dilemna - There is another part of that too.  Just because you are first, doesn't mean you succeed.  The Wright Brothers invented the airplane, but they were never more than a bit player in manufacturing.  The number of airlines that have gone bust is too long to mention.  Most of the major carriers that exist today have been through bankruptcy, some more than once.   Or shoot, look at auto companies.  There were a number of manufactures before Ford or Chrysler entered the business.  Most of them didn't survive.  Or computers.  Commodore and Radio Shack came out with PCs the same year as Apple.  Only Apple survived and then just barely. Or cell phones.  Not very long ago, Nokia and Blackberry completely dominated the market.  Nokia sold to Microsoft and Blackberry is a pale shadow of its former self. 

Point is, being first in the pool is no indicator of success.  I wish you and Tesla the best, but I don't see any moat.

For batteries, Tesla can buy up the battery supply and use them to build energy storage installations. Even if they break even, they can deny the competition battery capacity. I agree that over the long haul, this will not be an issue, but if Tesla can stave off competition for even 5 years, they will be in very good shape. I'm not convinced having in house battery production is going to benefit them in the long run, but in the medium term (10 years), I think it will prove to be the right decision.

Dealerships: Tesla does not need to take 100% market share. Even 5% of the world market would be fantastic.

Charging network: I own a Ford Focus electric, and the charging situation in Portland has been really bad by my experience. Maybe it's location dependent, or maybe I just had bad luck, but I no longer use public charging stations - I use my gas instead car for any trips that may require a charging station.

Lack of incentive: Chevrolet is talking about discontinuing the Sonic, and Ford is discontinuing the Fiesta. Many manufacturers are in similar talks about discontinuing entry level cars and focusing on more profitable vehicles.

As far as comparable cars, it's worth remembering that GM would need to increase their cost on the Bolt to $50k just to break even financially. Then, once the $7500 tax credit goes away, we'll see how many people are willing to buy it. The Bolt is similar to a Tesla Model 3 in the same way that a Toyota Camry is similar to a BMW 3 series.

I'm not a Tesla Fanboy, I have an MSEE and have taken classes in batteries, electric vehicle design and I work in the power industry. My depth of understanding of the topic is much deeper than that. Also, although I could, I would never buy one of their products. Thus why I'm on this forum :)

The biggest problems I see for Tesla are:
- Getting their expenses under control: This is hard to quantify because we don't really know what all Tesla is working on. Their expenditure is very high on R&D, but if that's because they're developing 5 new products, then that's acceptable. If they're developing 1, then that's much less acceptable. I could see a company run by engineers developing a lot of 'pet projects' over time that are interesting but ultimately have no profitable purpose. This problem will only become worse over time.
- It's illegal for them to sell cars in some states, so they have to have a store in the state and sell from another state. This is a real problem for the mainstream buyer
- Their ability to do creative financing (like dealerships routinely do) really limits their mainstream appeal. Tesla has a much higher share of cash/loan buyers than other auto manufacturers. Mainstream buyers prefer leases more. Tesla does not currently have the ability to deliver, let's say 200k leases per year.
- Since their ordering takes place online, it will remain to be seen if the mainstream buyer is ok with 3-6 month waits. My suspicion is that Tesla will need to have some sort of wait period so that they don't cause havoc at the factory. Traditional automakers use the dealerships as this buffer - they can push unwanted cars onto the dealerships for storage and gradually increase/decrease production
- Adding to the previous point, if there were say, an extended slowdown in demand, let's say because of some kind of PR disaster, what happens to their financials? Their profitability is dependent on them producing at near full capacity, so if they start going to 50% capacity for a year, that could spell real problems for them. This is where the uncertainty comes in because selling to die hard Tesla fans is very different than selling to the mainstream - something that they have yet to demonstrate.
- I don't see a path for them to get to say 5 Gigafactories and 5 auto factories without significant capital raises. Once Model 3 production gets to 10k/week, they will have a good amount of cash to work with, but not enough to build those factories in a timely manner. So while they will remain solvent and profitable, their growth may be constrained by the general market conditions. If we go through a credit crunch like in 2008, Tesla growth could be basically on hold for years. This time may give other auto manufacturers the time that they need to catch up as they can fuel new factory construction using their substantial profits.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on April 10, 2018, 06:31:27 PM
They need to scrap the battery pack and go directly to prismatic form cells to fully utilize the space in the pack.  This is the ongoing bottleneck in their production.  They need to figure out how to not have to hand build every battery pack. 

The first part would be stupid, and the last part is already figured out.

Tesla now produces roughly 2,000 Model 3 per week, plus 1500-2,000 (Model S + Model X) per week.

How many Bolts does GM produce in a week? This year so far, looks like maybe 300-400. 

Tesla also offers notably longer range than those prismatic-cell cars. The real problem with those dense close packed prismatic cells is temperature control, which is a major factor in durability. GM seems to have figured it out, Nissan definitely has not. Tesla has it figured out.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: nick663 on April 12, 2018, 08:01:44 PM

What is your source of production at ~300 cars per week?  Based on a quick scan of dealer lots around me, there is no shortage of Bolts and the sales nosedive that occurred in 2018 (compared to late 2017) is likely due to the end of a promotion offering employee pricing.

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

Note that when I posted, the March numbers were not available.

Add January + February, divide by 8.5 = 306 per week.
Those are sales numbers, not production numbers.  I would bet that days of inventory is increasing on the Bolt as I have no problem finding one on a lot right now and demand was likely pulled ahead due to promotions in late 2017.


Quote
And, to repeat an earlier post: Bolt production was never designed for the volumes of the Model 3 and the investment into manufacturing was significantly less.  You're comparing apples to oranges and disparaging GM despite the fact that it looks like their factory has run at 100% of designed capacity while Tesla is still at a fraction of theirs.

GM delivers more cars in a month than Tesla does in a year while turning a profit.  Talking negatively about their manufacturing capabilities while praising Tesla just makes you look silly.

Did I disparage GM in that post? Really? I suggest you re-read.

"GM is supposed to be the mass market volume production expert. I wish they would show some signs of actually doing so though."

This was in the context of other manufacturers not taking EV production seriously.

Your posting seems to totally support what I said. GM delivers more cars in a month than Tesla does in a year, yet didn't design the Bolt line for larger volumes nor work to ramp.

Hmm. Seems to totally agree with my premise that GM is not taking EVs seriously. They COULD produce more EVs, yet continue to fail to do so.

BTW, that Bolt production is shared with the Sonic. GM could readily shift production mix to be heavier on Bolt output.

March production was up slightly, bringing 1Q to an average rate of 336 Bolts per week. My original ~300 actually still stands (one significant digit)
The problem with your quote from a previous post is it seems to lay the blame on them not being experts in mass production.  You could make an argument that their initial targets were off but that is a failure of forecasting, not manufacturing.  From all outside appearances the manufacturing group did exactly what was communicated and the line is performing as designed.

I also think it would be pretty weird to chastise GM for missing slightly on a sales forecast when Tesla has missed literally every target they have put out in the last 5 years. :)
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: shinn497 on April 13, 2018, 06:31:54 PM
I personally say buy the stock if you believe in the company, but not as an investment decision. Then again I I wouldn't never recommend any single single stock sine i have no idea. I want to buy a small amount of TSLA though. Like maybe 1% of my investable assets.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: sherr on April 13, 2018, 09:55:04 PM
I personally say buy the stock if you believe in the company, but not as an investment decision. Then again I I wouldn't never recommend any single single stock sine i have no idea. I want to buy a small amount of TSLA though. Like maybe 1% of my investable assets.

This is the some of the worst advice I've ever heard in Investor Alley.

Do you know how much it helps Tesla if you buy there stock? None at all. They got all their money when they sold the shares to the public in the IPO. All you're doing now is trading slices of ownership for money with some other random Joe. It literally doesn't help them at all, so there's no reason for you to risk your own personal wealth unless you think it's a good investment. Aka, you think you're getting more than your money's worth, and you are highly confident that the price will rise in the future because you see something the average investor doesn't. If you actually don't know what you're talking about, which it certainly seems is true, then just follow the expert advice and put it in an index fund.

Can we observe how nonsensical your advice is? "Do it! But don't do it, IDK. But do it though! Just a little bit." Seriously guy, if you don't have anything to say then don't say anything and don't tell other people how to waste their money. Let's be clear, I don't have a problem with you in particular or with Tesla. I have a problem with people who have no idea what they're talking about telling other people what to do.

I hope Tesla succeeds. To some degree they already have; they've kicked the other auto manufacturers in the pants and made them take the idea of electric cars seriously. I also believe electric cars are the future, be it 5 years from now or 50 years from now. But I'm also not spending a single dollar on any individual stock, especially not TSLA at this price.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: shinn497 on April 15, 2018, 10:38:14 PM
Yep! If the stock price rises, and there is high demand for it, the company can later issue more shares if it needs more capital. Having a high price, gives a cushion so supply can increase without a loss of value for its primary investors. This is why we invest in companies that we think will do better, and why stores of value (like gold), are only useful as hedges against inflation or a short term economic downturn.

I see it this way. It is super hard to gain knowledge or insight about a company over the general public, or against savvy firms like Bridgewater. In addition, because of lotto bias, you need to be really careful about peoples results or claims. Taking positions against individual companies is just really risky and we should be honest about that.

So I personally say invest in TSLA if you think they are cool, believe in what they are doing, and want a piece of the company. Beyond the whole stock buyback thing, there are other ways a high stock price benefits them. But I don't have enough insight to say they will make you money. So like please don't leverage(don't do this ever) or put your life savings with them. I sort of hope that was implied. I mean supporting them is nice, but like I hope no one is naive enoughto think the small amount they personally have is enough to make anything more than a token difference.  I personally have a small fraction of a share I got for free.

Then again, I'm a noob. I am not going to suggest anything other than a broad index.

With that said,  if you think investing is all about objective facts and not about personal biases and emotions. Welp I have some bad news for you there.

And jeese no need to be so mean.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: sherr on April 16, 2018, 07:46:02 AM
And jeese no need to be so mean.

Sorry, I agree I owe you an apology there.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: shinn497 on April 16, 2018, 08:37:25 AM
Saul Good Man
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: alanB on April 16, 2018, 10:11:48 AM
If no one ever bought another share of TSLA the price would crash, another automaker or private equity would be happy to scoop it up in a fire sale.  Also I doubt they could continue to float outrageous new bond offerings if the price collapsed.

This is the some of the worst advice I've ever heard in Investor Alley.

Did you read any of the threads about cryptocurrency? ;P
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: genesismachine on April 16, 2018, 01:54:33 PM
This is kind of off topic, but having a high share price is one factor in the company's credit rating. Having a better credit rating helps Tesla to get a better interest rate on debt. Some of the debt is short term debt used for inventory purposes. So in theory, having a higher stock price indirectly helps them pay a little less in interest than they otherwise would.

So even if they never issue another share, having a higher stock price can make the company more profitable/have more resources to reinvest in the company mission.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: CorpRaider on May 03, 2018, 07:50:41 AM
Tesla is more than a mere investment.  Brother Elon may soon have need of our cash!  Thus, I think it may be time to start the "Tesla tithe." http://thecorpraider.com/2018/05/03/the-telsa-tithe/ (http://thecorpraider.com/2018/05/03/the-telsa-tithe/)


Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Stachless on May 03, 2018, 10:12:32 PM
This is kind of off topic, but having a high share price is one factor in the company's credit rating. Having a better credit rating helps Tesla to get a better interest rate on debt. Some of the debt is short term debt used for inventory purposes. So in theory, having a higher stock price indirectly helps them pay a little less in interest than they otherwise would.

So even if they never issue another share, having a higher stock price can make the company more profitable/have more resources to reinvest in the company mission.

As an Evil Banker I have to disagree with this.  Stocks split all the time and is seen as a GOOD thing for investors, though it cuts the price in half, a third, whatever ratio they split at.  Share price is also a function of # of shares issued, so its kinda like saying a pizza sliced in 10 pieces is half as tasty as a pizza sliced in 5 pieces.  Its really not a factor.

However, the converse is not true, as an OTC / penny stock is usually a good sign of a bad credit.  Not coincidentally because they aren't making any money!
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: CorpRaider on May 04, 2018, 09:17:41 AM
I think he means large equity valuation rather than "high share price."  A "thick equity cushion" as Reed Hastings (who also can burn cash on a world class scale), put it.  Of course that thick cushion can evaporate really quickly.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: genesismachine on May 07, 2018, 11:27:18 AM
This is kind of off topic, but having a high share price is one factor in the company's credit rating. Having a better credit rating helps Tesla to get a better interest rate on debt. Some of the debt is short term debt used for inventory purposes. So in theory, having a higher stock price indirectly helps them pay a little less in interest than they otherwise would.

So even if they never issue another share, having a higher stock price can make the company more profitable/have more resources to reinvest in the company mission.

As an Evil Banker I have to disagree with this.  Stocks split all the time and is seen as a GOOD thing for investors, though it cuts the price in half, a third, whatever ratio they split at.  Share price is also a function of # of shares issued, so its kinda like saying a pizza sliced in 10 pieces is half as tasty as a pizza sliced in 5 pieces.  Its really not a factor.

However, the converse is not true, as an OTC / penny stock is usually a good sign of a bad credit.  Not coincidentally because they aren't making any money!

I'm talking about the pizza getting bigger, not how you slice it. I agree about the share price not being the end-all if there are splits.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on August 02, 2018, 11:47:57 PM
@ColoradoTribe:  I agree EVs will do great things. However, Tesla has to still be around to benefit from that.

They have built amazing cars. They have big dreams for the future. I personally want them to be successful, I want to be able to buy a used Model 3 in the future. I want to be able to have solar with a battery back up. The problem is that investors have been pumping up the stock based on the dreams of what Tesla 'could be,' and not what it is today. Expectations have been set unrealistically high and Tesla has borrowed money based on those expectations.


Quote
Five years from now it will not matter whether it took them an extra six months to get production up to 5k/week.

Actually, in reality, it might matter a lot. It could be the difference between Tesla producing 1 million cars/year in 5 years VS bankruptcy within 12 months. Tesla will need more funding soon. Bond investors don't live in the clouds, they don't trade based on dreams of what could be in 5-10 years. Bond investors like results, and they like those results printed on boring balance sheets and cash flow statements. If Tesla doesn't increase Model 3 production, FAST, like really FAST, then the next time they issue bonds they might not find willing investors. Tesla isn't Apple or Google, or even Ford. Those companies have cash on hand. They can handle shocks. They can recover from mistakes. Tesla is running on borrowed money and broken promises. Many great companies have fallen prey to big dreams... and too much leverage.

People have been predicting Tesla's imminent bankruptcy and demise for as long as I've been following the company/stock. I bought more common shares today and will sleep well tonight. Those aligned against this company and its disruption (not you personally) know that once the model 3 ramp is complete that Tesla becomes profitable and this narrative goes away, so they're milking it one last time. I see indication that the model 3 ramp has picked up to 1500 - 2000/week the past week or two. They'll likely hit 2500/week in the first of Q2, in plenty of time to satisfy bond investors. There was a chance of Tesla failing in the early going, the chances of such a failure now are very low IMO. We'll know for sure in a few years.


Sure people have predicted bankruptcy before but past performance cannot be extrapolated forward.  This is clearly make-or-break time for Tesla.  In the past investors have bailed them out, by giving them more cash.  However, given that this is what the company has been shooting for, the high-volume, mass market EV, if they can be successful in ramping up production (and have enough demand) then they should be okay.  If not, they may go bankrupt in the next 1-12 months. 


However, even if they are successful at their ramp up, the main remaining potential worry that I see is that they will likely not be a top-5 automaker and thus cannot justify their market cap.  Once they stop being a company valued on future potential and our desire to see a sustainable transportation future but on actual sales and revenue and profits and reliability and all the other boring stuff that most blue chip companies are judged on, then I see it as unlikely that their sales will be similar to the big car makers.  Remember all the other guys are bringing out EVs and PHEVs too and that car buyers are notoriously picky about their cars in terms of brand, design, model, style, etc. . .  Teslas, despite their cool factor, are not for everyone. Just like Priuses or F-150s or Camrys or Accords aren't.

I think you way over simplify how easy it will be for the ICE manufacturers to turn to EVs, while maintaining their ICE production. Its hard to serve tow master. I would also point out that Tesla's biggest advantage is not their cars per se, its there ability to produce enough batteries for mass produce EVs. Unless I missed it, Ford, and GM do not have a gigafactory to mass produce the Lithium Ion batteries.

As far as valuation, the stock price will almost always stay ahead of the valuation for disruptive growth companies. THat's okay with a buy and hold strategy. Tesla is no longer a "car company", it's an energy and transportation company. As I mentioned above, Tesla is tackling grid scale battery backup/stabiliztion, residential battery storage, commercial trucking, solar roofing shingles, manufacturing automation, self-driving cars, and more. Will Tesla hit a home run with all these, no, but chances are they'll succeed on multiple fronts.

I suggest, instead of going back and forth and likely not change either of our opinions, let's make some predictions and see what happens. Here are my predictions for 2018. Tesla will finish the year:

With at least one, possibly two profitable quarters
Sell over 250,000 vehicles (S, X, M3), which would be 150% YOY growth
Stock price over $400


PS - I also predict the M3 will be named Popular Mechanics 2018 Car of the Year :)
https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/g19605464/best-cars-2018/ (https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/g19605464/best-cars-2018/)


Sure, sounds like fun. 
I predict Tesla won't sell 100,000 model 3's this year (and I think that will be very impressive and a win for them if they get close to 100k ).  Remember that they were shooting for 500k this year. 
I think TSLA won't end the year over $300, and there's a decent chance it'll go below $200 this year.


Remember there were only 200k EVs and PHEVs sold in the US in 2017.  It's not as if there was a supply issue for these vehicles.  It takes time for consumers to become aware of and wrap their minds around the changes that driving a plug-in car entails.  It's not a switch that happens overnight.


I'm feeling good about my TSLA holdings and my 2018 predictions bolded above. All the trend lines are favorable exiting Q2.

Tesla produced over 41,000 Model 3 sedans in the first half of the year.  They are currently producing roughly 4,500 Model 3s per week at a sustainable rate. Their stated goal is 6,000/week by end of August. Even if they only average 5,000/week for the remainder of the year, they would still produce well over 150,000 Model 3 in 2018. Combined with roughly 100,000 Model S and X and Tesla appears on track to sell over a quarter million EVs in 2018 and a half million vehicles in 2019.

A slow in capex, favorable economies of scale, and cost saving measures, should allow Tesla to post its 2nd ever profitable quarter in Q3.

Stock price jumped to $345 (ATH is around $360) following Q2 ER. Profitable Q3 will catapult SP well over $400 IMO.

Will update again at the end of Q3.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on August 03, 2018, 07:55:38 AM
I hope Tesla changes the planet.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Mr Mark on August 04, 2018, 10:17:52 PM
I hope Tesla changes the planet.

Me too. Solar is the future. But my next car will be a second hand Leaf...
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on August 07, 2018, 03:02:41 PM
Well, today was crazy: Elon with wild tweets that halted trading. Telsa going private with shareholders given the option of selling at $420/share or keeping equity in private company. Trading resumes and shares ended 11% up on the day.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: nick663 on August 07, 2018, 03:14:36 PM
Well, today was crazy: Elon with wild tweets that halted trading. Telsa going private with shareholders given the option of selling at $420/share or keeping equity in private company. Trading resumes and shares ended 11% up on the day.
"Considering" going private.  Weasel words are important.

$420/share would give them a market cap of 71 billion.  Would love to know who the sucker is that is willing to pay that.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Scortius on August 07, 2018, 03:46:45 PM
Basically if you buy any of those companies, you're playing the capital appreciation game and there's only one way to make money doing that; the stock has to move in the correct direction. In my opinion, that's too hard a game to win long term.

There's a reason stock prices appreciate when healthy and expanding companies reinvest in themselves rather than sit on profits. If you don't understand this or don't feel like these gains are grounded, I would suggest you look into a much more conservative approach to retirement, such as limiting yourself to dividend funds and bonds and CDs and drawing on 2% of your nest egg rather than the standard 4%.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: CCCA on August 07, 2018, 04:05:38 PM
Well, today was crazy: Elon with wild tweets that halted trading. Telsa going private with shareholders given the option of selling at $420/share or keeping equity in private company. Trading resumes and shares ended 11% up on the day.
"Considering" going private.  Weasel words are important.

$420/share would give them a market cap of 71 billion.  Would love to know who the sucker is that is willing to pay that.


whoa, that is crazy.  I was definitely wrong about the near-term movement of the stock (luckily I'm not short or anything). At some point the company has to justify this crazy market cap.  For now, I guess there are enough people excited about the potential of the company to ignore what a 71 billion market cap implies.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on August 07, 2018, 05:26:44 PM
Well, today was crazy: Elon with wild tweets that halted trading. Telsa going private with shareholders given the option of selling at $420/share or keeping equity in private company. Trading resumes and shares ended 11% up on the day.
"Considering" going private.  Weasel words are important.

$420/share would give them a market cap of 71 billion.  Would love to know who the sucker is that is willing to pay that.

Apparently the Saudis. Specifically the Saudia Arabia Sovereign Wealth Fund.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Investment_Fund_of_Saudi_Arabia

Which makes some sense as a hedging scheme for them. If Tesla (and other EV producers) continue explosive growth, their main current value (oil) largely goes away.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: SnackDog on August 08, 2018, 10:55:06 AM
Well, today was crazy: Elon with wild tweets that halted trading. Telsa going private with shareholders given the option of selling at $420/share or keeping equity in private company. Trading resumes and shares ended 11% up on the day.

Tesla stock price still severely trails the overall market for the last 12 months.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ol1970 on September 07, 2018, 10:58:42 AM
Wow, things are getting real interesting over there at Tesla...going to be interesting couple of months.  Probably pretty exciting to work there!
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: FrugalSaver on September 09, 2018, 10:55:16 PM
So for those that have commented on this thread, have we been gifted yet another amazing entry point?!?

$263
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Car Jack on September 10, 2018, 08:42:36 AM
TSLA closed at $309 on the day this thread was started.  Is there some light at the end of the tunnel that I'm not seeing?  Quality issues continue and are hitting the bottom line.  Drive units aren't cheap to replace and they are getting replaced even when the motor is fine because the bearings are under engineered.  Musk is unraveled (as opposed to coming unraveled) and just doesn't care what his public face is.  Top people are leaving and being shuffled even if they don't.  People waiting for a $35k car will never see one because Tesla can't make one and make a profit on the car.  Bonds are in junk territory.  The company is burning through cash still.  Space X....one of Tesla's better companies could take a hit as the DoD is not keen on publically breaking federal law by taking illegal drugs, so expect Musk's security clearance to be hit.  I think the shorters are still in for more profits.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: sherr on September 10, 2018, 09:56:48 AM
Space X....one of Tesla's better companies could take a hit as the DoD is not keen on publically breaking federal law by taking illegal drugs, so expect Musk's security clearance to be hit.

SpaceX is not a Tesla company, it is a separate entity that also happens to have Musk as CEO. SpaceX not renewing some contracts wouldn't really affect Tesla.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Nate79 on September 10, 2018, 11:06:05 PM
Current headline stories is all the debt Tesla has coming due and how there is a lack of faith in Tesla bonds as they are selling at a big discount.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on September 10, 2018, 11:12:58 PM
So for those that have commented on this thread, have we been gifted yet another amazing entry point?!?

$263

I continue to buy dips. I've been slowly accumulating for about five years now.  Good chunk of my shares were bought sub $200. I'm happy for short term volatility in response to what amounts to nothing as it does offer another opportunity to snag shares at a discount. Professional reviews for Model 3 have all been favorable to glowing, customer satisfaction is high, and production is ramping. Model 3 and Model X also had early quality issues that were quickly resolved. Same progression has occurred with Model 3 and production is now ramping successfully. I predict Q3 will be just to either side of break even and Q4 will be solidly profitable. SP will be over $400 by end of January 2019 in just 5 short months time. Others will accuse me of being the one smoking the weed, but all will paly out in good time.

To quote Gandhi, "First they ignore you, then the laugh at you, then they fight you, and then you win." I'd say Tesla is nearing the height of step 3 as the most shorted stock in the US.  Disruption of this scale was never going to be easy or cheap.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on September 10, 2018, 11:19:54 PM
Current headline stories is all the debt Tesla has coming due and how there is a lack of faith in Tesla bonds as they are selling at a big discount.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

If you go back in time and have followed Tesla then you know that Tesla has been on the verge of collapse and imminent bankruptcy for about 12 years. I'm sure this time is for real.

Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: talltexan on September 11, 2018, 07:57:46 AM
If no one ever bought another share of TSLA the price would crash, another automaker or private equity would be happy to scoop it up in a fire sale.  Also I doubt they could continue to float outrageous new bond offerings if the price collapsed.

This is the some of the worst advice I've ever heard in Investor Alley.

Did you read any of the threads about cryptocurrency? ;P

Indeed I'm wishing I'd paid more attention to the threads on crypto, especially the posts by crypto bears ;-)
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on September 11, 2018, 10:10:47 AM
You already own Tesla if you have your investments in the Total Stock Market Index fund.
I don't recommend overweighting in this company (nor any company), and no one has any idea what's going to happen next.

Aside from that I hope the company manages to do well, and upends the auto market / solar/ battery storage market

"Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTSMX)
The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund was established in April 1992. The fund's primary objective to track the performance of its benchmark index CRSP US Total Market Index. This objective is accomplished by investing in equity securities of large, mid and small-cap companies across both growth and value investing styles. The fund invests primarily in U.S. stocks.
As of June 29, 2018, Vanguard Total Stock Market Index holds 3.19 million shares of Tesla, which amounts to 1.88% of the company's total shares. VTSMX's ownership in Tesla accounts for 0.16% of the total assets. As of August 7, 2018, the fund has $725.8 billion in assets under management and requires a minimum of $3,000 to invest. Lastly, VTSMX has a five-year annualized return of 12.80% and an expense ratio of 0.14%.
"

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/090215/4-mutual-funds-hold-tesla-stock.asp
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Car Jack on September 12, 2018, 06:44:50 AM
I lurk on another forum where lots of members have 3 orders in.  Most of them are getting messages that if they take "this" car, they can get it immediately.  The explanation is that so many cancellations are coming through that cars started without final payment are completed with no potential owner waiting.  I'm sure there will be zero info coming from Tesla as they only release information that looks good for them.  I can imagine that demand for the 3 is reaching that for the S and X, which has dwindled tremendously.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: nick663 on September 15, 2018, 08:48:51 AM
I lurk on another forum where lots of members have 3 orders in.  Most of them are getting messages that if they take "this" car, they can get it immediately.  The explanation is that so many cancellations are coming through that cars started without final payment are completed with no potential owner waiting.  I'm sure there will be zero info coming from Tesla as they only release information that looks good for them.  I can imagine that demand for the 3 is reaching that for the S and X, which has dwindled tremendously.
I kinda wonder how Tesla will handle this transition from being a made to order manufacturer to having stock ready to ship as they don't have the traditional dealership model.  It's easy for other OEMs to build cars that don't yet have a buyer because they push them to dealerships where they sit.

Tesla model 3 website still says the standard range battery is 4-7 months out.  I don't see the Model 3 doing huge volumes while carrying a 50k+ price tag so I think the "profitable in Q4" predictions are questionable.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Full_Beard on September 15, 2018, 05:25:15 PM
From a value investor perspective, no it's not. Will the hype translate into a surge in price? Definitely possible. But, in my view, there are a lot of good companies out there that are doing very well, have positive earning trends, and carry less risk (and that means probably less upside).
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: afreeman85 on September 16, 2018, 07:49:48 AM
I buy Tesla stock every month....through my purchase of VTSAX.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Telecaster on September 17, 2018, 11:42:10 PM
Here's the thing:  At some point  hopefully Tesla will sell as many vehicles and make as much profit as Ford does now. 

But Tesla stock is priced as if it makes the same profit as Ford right now.  That's a lot of growth premium priced into Tesla.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: sherr on September 18, 2018, 06:43:12 AM
Here's the thing:  At some point  hopefully Tesla will sell as many vehicles and make as much profit as Ford does now. 

But Tesla stock is priced as if it makes the same profit as Ford right now.  That's a lot of growth premium priced into Tesla.

Yes, I agree, BUT Tesla is not just an electric car company. It is also a battery / solar power / energy solutions company. I still don't understand the valuation, but these are all markets that are potentially very high-growth in the very near future, and Tesla has established itself as a premium name-brand.

IMO all this goes to show why you should not invest in individual stocks. There is too much emotion, too much speculation, and too little information and in-depth knowledge involved.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: talltexan on September 18, 2018, 07:59:29 AM
Indeed, my tesla bull co-worker (who is long in the stock) has admitted that he is irrational about only one thing: the Dallas Cowboys. But a recent self-assessment made him think he was dangerously close to the border with tesla.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Full_Beard on September 18, 2018, 12:53:36 PM
Quote from: sherr link

Yes, I agree, BUT Tesla is not just an electric car company. It is also a battery / solar power / energy solutions company. I still don't understand the valuation, but these are all markets that are potentially very high-growth in the very near future, and Tesla has established itself as a premium name-brand.

IMO all this goes to show why you should not invest in individual stocks. There is too much emotion, too much speculation, and too little information and in-depth knowledge involved.

I disagree. If anything, it goes to show some why they shouldn't invest in individual stocks that are difficult-to-impossible to value using traditional valuation methods. Some may look at Tesla and see so many high-value intangibles (as you've pointed out) and say it's stock will soar. That's not a unique view -- it wouldn't be trading at ~ $300 if many didn't have that view. Others, myself included, are just fine sticking with companies whose valuation they can understand.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Grog on September 20, 2018, 12:11:39 AM
The difference with Tesla is that there is a certain ideological component. People are buying stock to support the vision, not to get their money back in the short time. So it defies the traditional assessment of the value based on Financials.

Sent from my Hisense A2T using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ChpBstrd on September 20, 2018, 11:35:48 AM
FWIW, we can currently buy out options on TSLA expiring in January 2021 at the $50 strike price for about $6.88. In layman's terms, this is a wager that would yield a 627% return if TSLA goes bankrupt and shares go to zero and a 100% loss if that fails to happen.

Those are not bad odds considering that Elon's Twitter addiction might have just blocked the company's last remaining route to raise the $2B it needs to operate a little longer.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4207331-tesla-may-now-locked-capital-markets (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4207331-tesla-may-now-locked-capital-markets)

I'm way too risk averse to throw $100k at the idea, but damn it sure is a tempting fantasy play to retire in 6-12 months.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Full_Beard on September 21, 2018, 06:01:34 PM
FWIW, we can currently buy out options on TSLA expiring in January 2021 at the $50 strike price for about $6.88. In layman's terms, this is a wager that would yield a 627% return if TSLA goes bankrupt and shares go to zero and a 100% loss if that fails to happen.
I don't understand why you wouldn't earn at least something if the price fell to anything between $0 and $43.12.

Regardless, given that it's at $300 now, that seems risky. A lot of other things might happen if the stock were to drop precipitously but not bottom out.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: smallstache on September 27, 2018, 03:48:36 PM
Those put options just became a whole lot more valuable.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: SnackDog on September 27, 2018, 04:08:50 PM
Could be historic buying opportunity.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: smallstache on September 27, 2018, 05:13:08 PM
Could be historic buying opportunity.

Get rid of Musk and perhaps...
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: thd7t on September 28, 2018, 06:13:03 AM
Could be historic buying opportunity.

Get rid of Musk and perhaps...
I think they meant buying opportunity for put options!  Getting rid of Musk might backfire if that's the strategy.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: marty998 on September 28, 2018, 06:50:08 AM
Could be historic buying opportunity.

Get rid of Musk and perhaps...
I think they meant buying opportunity for put options!  Getting rid of Musk might backfire if that's the strategy.

Do you guys think the SEC will win its case to ban Mr Musk from acting as a Director or Executive on any public corporation?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: SnackDog on September 28, 2018, 07:02:59 AM
I expect he will be heavily fined and scolded for his tweets.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: BTDretire on September 28, 2018, 07:34:39 AM
My crystal ball is clear now, don't invest in Telsa on March 22, 2018.
Just wait, sometime during September the price will drop into the $270s.
And for the future, oh, my crystal ball just clouded up!
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: CCCA on September 28, 2018, 12:23:11 PM
This story is riveting.  I can only imagine the movie that will be made about this sometime in the future will be quite good.

CNBC is reporting that Musk refused the SEC settlement which would have the following conditions:
I don't think this is confirmed but that is what is being reported.  This seems like a no brainer compared to possibly being removed from Tesla and never serving as head of a public company.

I wonder if it is a rational decision (they believe that they have a clear win) or irrational (his ego wouldn't let him not deny the charges).
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: BDWW on September 28, 2018, 12:45:01 PM
I suppose this is common course with SEC investigations, but it does seem a bit ... well stupid.

"Your tweet was erroneous and manipulated the market" - SEC

Also SEC, "Pardon us while we park this truckload of TNT under TSLA and light it"
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: CCCA on September 28, 2018, 12:54:15 PM
I suppose this is common course with SEC investigations, but it does seem a bit ... well stupid.

"Your tweet was erroneous and manipulated the market" - SEC

Also SEC, "Pardon us while we park this truckload of TNT under TSLA and light it"

I think if he'd taken the settlement (at least the one that is reported), shareholders would have been fine with it. I imagine the stock might even be up on news that he settled.  It's was a little slap on the wrist for something that should definitely be illegal* but mostly just dumb.

*If a CEO can just tweet crap like this out, it sets a bad precedent for any other company to just drive prices up and down anytime they want (and imagine how much the CEO's billionaire friends could profit).
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ILikeDividends on September 28, 2018, 05:30:59 PM
I expect he will be heavily fined and scolded for his tweets.
The scolding option would appear to be off the table now.  Reportedly (I don't know that is confirmed), the SEC offered (or Musk's attorney was about to propose) an impossibly sweet deal, already posted up-thread.  Reportedly, Musk rejected (or backed out of) the proposal because he couldn't agree to "neither confirm nor deny" guilt.

Seriously?  If that deal went through, Musk would have remained CEO, and it could have inflicted the searing revenge on the shorts Musk was going for in the first place.

All the evidence the SEC cited came from Musk, himself, and from his board members.  They don't just have a smoking gun.  They also have all the bullets recovered from the victims, and they know where all the dead bodies are buried, and have already dug them up.

If the deal was, in fact, offered by the SEC, and then rejected by Musk, I can't imagine the SEC doing anything other than loading up the biggest guns they have, and firing, point-blank, right at Musk.

The SEC's suit is a civil matter.  They don't have to prove motive.  All they have to do is prove the facts.  And most of those facts (all of those facts?) have already been confirmed publicly by Musk, himself.  He has no chance whatsoever of casting any shadow of a doubt on the facts of the case. If it goes to trial, he will lose spectacularly.

I can only imagine that the DOJ is waiting for a nod from the SEC to suggest that there might be criminal charges where motive might also be just as easily provable.  Rejecting an SEC offer (if they even made one) is not likely to endear the SEC to the mess he's put himself into.

If the SEC looks at this holistically, they might surmise that barring Musk from board and officer positions for life might do substantially more harm to shareholders of Tesla and Spacex than Musk has already done.  That might be Musk's only hope left, but I think relying on that would seem an extremely weak strategy on Musk's part.

The SEC and the DOJ are enforcement agencies.  They accomplish their goals by making high-profile examples to send a message to all the other CEOs of public companies.  What kind of message would it send if they walked away now?  Musk has offered them all they need in order to make him a poster-child of bad behavior on a silver platter.  I think pummeling Musk into a gooey splat mark on the sidewalk is a much more likely outcome; especially likely if the SEC actually did extend that sweetheart olive branch which was then rejected by Musk.

Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: genesismachine on September 28, 2018, 05:52:50 PM
I read that part of the plea was that he would get a 2 year ban from being Chairman of the board at Tesla. I would say that's more than a slap on the wrist.

Agreed on the enforcement action likely not being pleasant. I doubt Musk is connected enough in Washington to avoid the pull power of those agencies.

The good news for stockholders is that hopefully this will drag out for years and Tesla will be able to mature enough during that time that losing Musk may not be a big deal. There was a time when people couldn't imagine Apple without Steve Jobs either, but he left the house in great enough shape that someone else could take over and take it to the next level.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ILikeDividends on September 28, 2018, 06:01:59 PM
I read that part of the plea was that he would get a 2 year ban from being Chairman of the board at Tesla.
By itself, I might agree.  But the original suit seeks to ban him from holding both director and officer positions in the future.  That could conceivably be for life, and would affect both Tesla and Spacex.  Taken in that context, I'd regard the offer as a mere slap on the wrist.

There was a time when people couldn't imagine Apple without Steve Jobs either, but he left the house in great enough shape that someone else could take over and take it to the next level.
I think that is an unlikely comparison.  For years before Job's final departure from Apple, he built an incredible stable of executive talent that has since proven more than capable of taking over, and soaring to new heights.  And Apple was extremely profitable when he did finally pass the reigns to Cook.

Tesla is not only unprofitable, they are facing an existential debt crisis in the very near future that is, at the very least, not going to be any easier to resolve by a CEO charged with fraud by the SEC.

Jobs never displayed the kind of bipolar instability that Musk shows.  I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think that's the kind of thing you can grow out of.  Meanwhile, in terms of succession planning, Musk has only proven capable of driving high quality talent away.  Those most capable of filling in for him have already left.

Personally, I don't see this dragging out for more than a few months; certainly not for years.  Any delays will be more a matter of the court's schedule and existing case load than anything else.  The facts are uncomplicated, easy for anyone to understand, and easy to prove, because much (all?) of the proof is already a matter of public record.  Musk is the SEC's star witness; even if he chooses not to testify in the trial, he has already convicted himself in public.

Remember, the SEC's suit doesn't have to prove motive; only facts.  If a motive can be proven, too, a criminal trial would land in the DOJ's lane, and that could conceivably be the next shoe to drop. A criminal trial might take longer to prosecute.  In that worst-case scenario, though, Musk is likely already gone from Tesla and Spacex.

Disclosure: Never long (except via indexing).  Never short.  Merely astonished that such a brilliant man is apparently oblivious to the most basic prohibitions against pointing a loaded revolver at his own foot before gleefully firing off all six rounds.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ChpBstrd on September 28, 2018, 08:46:23 PM
Merely astonished that such a brilliant man is apparently oblivious to the most basic prohibitions against pointing a loaded revolver at his own foot before gleefully firing off all six rounds.

Is he really brilliant, then?

I'm sure he has skills I don't have, but I have the brainpower not to use Twitter to violate SEC rules and risk everything I ever worked for. I also know better than to waste my time arguing with internet trolls, depriving myself of sleep, as Musk seems fond of doing.

I've noticed many millions of people are now unable to distinguish having money from (a) being brilliant, or (b) being a great leader. To call a rich person a moron is considered an oxymoron. To call any business owner a poor leader (other than our own bosses) is considered an expression of jealousy. I think it's because media overexposure has made us think of leaders, smart people, or "winners" as overly-dramatic characters. Those roles are always case as over-dramatic people.

However, we should all know it is entirely possible to acquire a shit-ton of wealth simply by being in the right place at the right time or being otherwise lucky. Musk's connections to venture capital explain his ability to found/fund companies a lot better than his apparent skill at running firms or generating organic growth. The guy also loves risk. I estimate 50/50 odds whether he ends up the next Thomas Edison or in jail.

Musk's companies achieved amazing technical feats because they are some of the last American companies to actually invest lots of money into R&D rather than dividends, buybacks, and compensation. Musk's alleged brilliance might just be a result of that budget allocation. Hire 1,000 of the smartest engineers in the U.S. and they will land a rocket vertically.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ILikeDividends on September 28, 2018, 10:03:55 PM
Merely astonished that such a brilliant man is apparently oblivious to the most basic prohibitions against pointing a loaded revolver at his own foot before gleefully firing off all six rounds.
Is he really brilliant, then?

I'm quite sure that's a debatable point, and that a reasonable argument could assert that he's an idiot, viewed from one's specific perspective.

Founding one public company, and founding yet another that probably could go public, counts for a rare kind of brilliance that few others possess.  I certainly don't possess that ability.  But that's just my perspective.

As with just about any other human, Musk is strong in certain cognitive abilities, and weak in others.  Musk's strengths are exceedingly rare, but his glaring weaknesses are also exceedingly rare; i.e., he is utterly blind to common sense judgements that most other folks take for granted at a fairly young age.

Is he brilliant?  Is he an idiot?  There's no point in arguing.  He is clearly well endowed with both characteristics in large measure.

Is he fit to execute the fiduciary duties of one in his various roles?  Personally, I don't believe that he is.  But that's a question for the regulatory authorities to answer.

If we need to assign only a single label, I'll go out on a limb and suggest we could both agree that he is an idiot savant at the very least; but an extremely highly functional idiot savant who has been able to conceal his disabilities from the general public for quite a long time.  At least until about month ago.

I would argue that the flight of executive talent from Tesla is evidence that his cognitive weaknesses extend much farther into the past than this recent climax with the SEC might suggest, and that escalating pressure on Musk created by having to fill in the gaps caused by that loss of talent is only a symptom of the underlying problem, not the cause of it.  Loss of valuable talent is yet another problem, in my opinion, that Musk created for himself for no discernible reason.

Above all other disabilities, Musk appears utterly incapable of delegating, and utterly incapable of trusting anyone's decision but his own.  There are a lot of positions at Tesla where Musk could add a sh*t-load of value; perhaps game-breaking value.  But an unrestrained CEO and COB are not among those positions, in my humble opinion.

And let's face it.  The BOD, as currently constructed, is nothing more than a Musk puppet.  Tesla has no chance to fix itself without regulatory intervention.  And that's not an assertion that Tesla could survive as a going concern in that or any other scenario, either.  I, hopefully obviously, have my doubts that Tesla will survive at all.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Cache_Stash on September 29, 2018, 09:39:56 AM
Merely astonished that such a brilliant man is apparently oblivious to the most basic prohibitions against pointing a loaded revolver at his own foot before gleefully firing off all six rounds.
Is he really brilliant, then?

I'm quite sure that's a debatable point, and that a reasonable argument could assert that he's an idiot, viewed from one's specific perspective.

Founding one public company, and founding yet another that probably could go public, counts for a rare kind of brilliance that few others possess.  I certainly don't possess that ability.  But that's just my perspective.

As with just about any other human, Musk is strong in certain cognitive abilities, and weak in others.  Musk's strengths are exceedingly rare, but his glaring weaknesses are also exceedingly rare; i.e., he is utterly blind to common sense judgements that most other folks take for granted at a fairly young age.

Is he brilliant?  Is he an idiot?  There's no point in arguing.  He is clearly well endowed with both characteristics in large measure.

Is he fit to execute the fiduciary duties of one in his various roles?  Personally, I don't believe that he is.  But that's a question for the regulatory authorities to answer.

If we need to assign only a single label, I'll go out on a limb and suggest we could both agree that he is an idiot savant at the very least; but an extremely highly functional idiot savant who has been able to conceal his disabilities from the general public for quite a long time.  At least until about month ago.

I would argue that the flight of executive talent from Tesla is evidence that his cognitive weaknesses extend much farther into the past than this recent climax with the SEC might suggest, and that escalating pressure on Musk created by having to fill in the gaps caused by that loss of talent is only a symptom of the underlying problem, not the cause of it.  Loss of valuable talent is yet another problem, in my opinion, that Musk created for himself for no discernible reason.

Above all other disabilities, Musk appears utterly incapable of delegating, and utterly incapable of trusting anyone's decision but his own.  There are a lot of positions at Tesla where Musk could add a sh*t-load of value; perhaps game-breaking value.  But an unrestrained CEO and COB are not among those positions, in my humble opinion.

And let's face it.  The BOD, as currently constructed, is nothing more than a Musk puppet.  Tesla has no chance to fix itself without regulatory intervention.  And that's not an assertion that Tesla could survive as a going concern in that or any other scenario, either.  I, hopefully obviously, have my doubts that Tesla will survive at all.

I agree with most of what you posted but I don't think he's blind to it.  I think his hubris is such that he feels above the law because he is trying to save mankind.  This is about his ego and narcissism. He doesn't understand a basic filing with the SEC is required to share the information in his tweet thus showing his ignorance?  I'm just not sure of this.  In my opinion it's either:

1.  Willful Ignorance:  He just can't be bothered to understand and follow the rules (Showing his hubris).

2.  He knew better and felt so compelled to f*ck the shorts he felt he could get away with it (cognitive dissonance?).  (Still showing his hubris).

Either way, what he did was Fraud according to the SEC. I think history won't be kind to him.  I believe he needs to go to jail.  There were many people damaged by his tweet (both long and short!).  Hell, Martha Stewart landed in jail for minor insider trading.  You could hardly quantify her damage to others based on one trade.  Elron cost some investors hundreds of thousands if not millions.

The DOJ doesn't "follow" the lead of the SEC.  Elron opened the door and unwittingly invited them both in to check out Tesla's books.  This isn't going to end well.

It's too bad because he has a lot to offer mankind.

Other problems include:

Who is going to fund the company going forward?  He will be unable to raise capital they are going to need in the next six months and I think it will lead to a declaration of bankruptcy by March unless he can find a sugar daddy to come bail him out.  I think whoever that may be needs to bring about 20BUSD to the table and understand they are likely to lose most/all of it.

The SEC filing a civil suit will be evidence for the class action law suits to utilize for a payout in big dollars - Just staple it to the lawsuit filing and that's all that is needed.

OSHA, UAW and others are also investigating and filing complaints.  People are lined up to take their shots at the company.

This is as ugly as it gets.   

This, of course, is all opinion and conjecture on my part.   
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Antonn Park on September 29, 2018, 01:46:35 PM
No, no, no. Not right now. I'm not sure Tesla will rebound after news about the SEC.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Cache_Stash on September 29, 2018, 01:56:19 PM
No, no, no. Not right now. I'm not sure Tesla will rebound after news about the SEC.

I hope you're kidding.  Right?...

Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: tralfamadorian on September 29, 2018, 06:40:09 PM
Looks like someone changed his mind on the plea-
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/29/business/tesla-musk-sec-settlement.html
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ILikeDividends on September 29, 2018, 06:53:43 PM
Looks like someone changed his mind on the plea-
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/29/business/tesla-musk-sec-settlement.html
Well, that's a surprise.  Looks like Musk ran out of bullets before he ran out of toes.  With an upgraded BOD, and salvaging his CEO position, maybe there's a sliver of hope for Tesla's survival after all.

“The total package of remedies and relief announced today are specifically designed to address the misconduct at issue by strengthening Tesla’s corporate governance and oversight in order to protect investors,” . . .

I actually think the company might be stronger now than it would have been even if Musk had never started that "funding secured" nonsense in the first place.  Funny how things work out, eh?

If I were a betting man, I'd bet the stock bounces pretty hard on Monday.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Grog on September 30, 2018, 04:37:16 AM
They have volunteers/owners helping out at the delivery centers. I can't see how such a loyal base will ever let the stock go to 0....if Elon starts a fundraiser to pay off the debt (or some p2p lending system) he is going to raise millions.

Sent from my Hisense A2T using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Cache_Stash on September 30, 2018, 04:41:04 AM
They have volunteers/owners helping out at the delivery centers. I can't see how such a loyal base will ever let the stock go to 0....if Elon starts a fundraiser to pay off the debt (or some p2p lending system) he is going to raise millions.

Sent from my Hisense A2T using Tapatalk

Where are they going to get funding to continue operating?  The loyal base? 

If they don't get funding in the next three or four months, they are headed to bankruptcy in my estimation.  The effective price will be pennies not zero, but pennies per share.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Retire-Canada on September 30, 2018, 08:33:13 AM
They have volunteers/owners helping out at the delivery centers. I can't see how such a loyal base will ever let the stock go to 0....if Elon starts a fundraiser to pay off the debt (or some p2p lending system) he is going to raise millions.

Sure he can raise millions that way. He needs billions though and the loyal base doesn't have billions.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on September 30, 2018, 11:22:17 PM
Tesla has been on the verge of bankruptcy for 10 years if you've been listening to the naysayers that long.  There were times in the early going where it was a possibility. I think were past the possibility now. Tesla will likely turn a profit in Q3 or come very close at least. Q4 will be profitable. Tesla will produce close to a half million cars in 2019 using mostly existing infrastructure that was bought and paid for during the rapid growth and reinvestment of the past 5 years. People just don't get it. Anyone who owns an electric car will never buy another gas car in their life. EVs are the future and Tesla has a massive lead on the competition in both infrastructure and technology. But, no need to argue, we'll all get the answer to the thread's title question in the next 3-4 months.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Cache_Stash on October 01, 2018, 06:24:11 AM
Tesla has been on the verge of bankruptcy for 10 years if you've been listening to the naysayers that long.  There were times in the early going where it was a possibility. I think were past the possibility now. Tesla will likely turn a profit in Q3 or come very close at least. Q4 will be profitable. Tesla will produce close to a half million cars in 2019 using mostly existing infrastructure that was bought and paid for during the rapid growth and reinvestment of the past 5 years. People just don't get it. Anyone who owns an electric car will never buy another gas car in their life. EVs are the future and Tesla has a massive lead on the competition in both infrastructure and technology. But, no need to argue, we'll all get the answer to the thread's title question in the next 3-4 months.

In the past, they have just raised funds through bond offerings and stock dilution.  Stock dilution through an offering is not going to happen.  The bonds on the company have gone to 80 cents on the dollar.  That is junk bond status.  A direct reflection of their financial status.  In the past they have been able to raise funds.  Profitability being positive doesn't necessarily imply a positive cash flow - you can still burn cash while showing a profit.  I don't think they'll sustain either.  One quarter maybe.  Backlog is down.  900 Million in debt due by March 1st.  Just too many obstacles.  They need to complete a hail mary with private equity.  Don't see it happening.  We shall see.

Again, just my opinion.  YMMV.

Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Finallyunderstand on October 01, 2018, 08:08:56 AM
I suppose this is common course with SEC investigations, but it does seem a bit ... well stupid.

"Your tweet was erroneous and manipulated the market" - SEC

Also SEC, "Pardon us while we park this truckload of TNT under TSLA and light it"

I think if he'd taken the settlement (at least the one that is reported), shareholders would have been fine with it. I imagine the stock might even be up on news that he settled.  It's was a little slap on the wrist for something that should definitely be illegal* but mostly just dumb.

*If a CEO can just tweet crap like this out, it sets a bad precedent for any other company to just drive prices up and down anytime they want (and imagine how much the CEO's billionaire friends could profit).

I believe you were quite accurate in your prediction. 
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: genesismachine on October 01, 2018, 10:10:56 AM
I read that part of the plea was that he would get a 2 year ban from being Chairman of the board at Tesla.
By itself, I might agree.  But the original suit seeks to ban him from holding both director and officer positions in the future.  That could conceivably be for life, and would affect both Tesla and Spacex.  Taken in that context, I'd regard the offer as a mere slap on the wrist.

There was a time when people couldn't imagine Apple without Steve Jobs either, but he left the house in great enough shape that someone else could take over and take it to the next level.
I think that is an unlikely comparison.  For years before Job's final departure from Apple, he built an incredible stable of executive talent that has since proven more than capable of taking over, and soaring to new heights.  And Apple was extremely profitable when he did finally pass the reigns to Cook.

Tesla is not only unprofitable, they are facing an existential debt crisis in the very near future that is, at the very least, not going to be any easier to resolve by a CEO charged with fraud by the SEC.

Jobs never displayed the kind of bipolar instability that Musk shows.  I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think that's the kind of thing you can grow out of.  Meanwhile, in terms of succession planning, Musk has only proven capable of driving high quality talent away.  Those most capable of filling in for him have already left.

Personally, I don't see this dragging out for more than a few months; certainly not for years.  Any delays will be more a matter of the court's schedule and existing case load than anything else.  The facts are uncomplicated, easy for anyone to understand, and easy to prove, because much (all?) of the proof is already a matter of public record.  Musk is the SEC's star witness; even if he chooses not to testify in the trial, he has already convicted himself in public.

Remember, the SEC's suit doesn't have to prove motive; only facts.  If a motive can be proven, too, a criminal trial would land in the DOJ's lane, and that could conceivably be the next shoe to drop. A criminal trial might take longer to prosecute.  In that worst-case scenario, though, Musk is likely already gone from Tesla and Spacex.

Disclosure: Never long (except via indexing).  Never short.  Merely astonished that such a brilliant man is apparently oblivious to the most basic prohibitions against pointing a loaded revolver at his own foot before gleefully firing off all six rounds.

This is a moot point since they announced the settlement, but my point wasn't that Tesla was ready right now for another CEO, but that in the few years I thought they could drag it out, Tesla could be at that point. Swapping CEOs right now would be disastrous for all the reasons you mentioned.

There is still the criminal side of this, which hasn't been announced yet either confirming or denying that the DOJ will pursue this. Knowing the government, I would expect another settlement to come of that part, and it may include some jail time. Hopefully that can be dragged out for a few years.

The fact that Musk didn't have to admit guilt for the SEC portion does actually help him on the DOJ portion. If he came out admitting guilt, the DOJ would have a real easy time convicting.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Cache_Stash on October 01, 2018, 03:27:44 PM
Ring a bell?

https://thereformedbroker.com/2018/09/28/the-nine-essential-conditions-to-commit-massive-fraud-2/

Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: smallstache on October 01, 2018, 05:35:04 PM
For the sake of Tesla shareholders, I really hope that Musk uses the experiences of the last two months for a little introspection (or a lot).  The settlement was crisis averted, but there had better be no more dumbass shenanigans.

As a corollary, if I was long Tesla I would use today's move as a chance to get out on a high note.  The damn thing is just way too volatile for me.  My wealth is my future, not a gamble on the whims of a single personality.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Pizzabrewer on October 01, 2018, 05:43:31 PM
Looks like someone changed his mind on the plea-
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/29/business/tesla-musk-sec-settlement.html

I look at it completely the opposite.  The SEC backed down and settled for the bare minimum mea culpa.  It's a sign of the times.  Those who run roughshod over the rules and established norms are the winners.  Those who stay within the lines are the suckers. 
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ILikeDividends on October 01, 2018, 05:48:27 PM
Ring a bell?

https://thereformedbroker.com/2018/09/28/the-nine-essential-conditions-to-commit-massive-fraud-2/
Scary parallels indeed.  But one striking difference between those other fraudsters and Musk, is that if he does turn out to be a fraud, he'll have been the first one in history, whether intentionally or not, to virtually invite regulatory scrutiny before the house of cards collapsed under its own weight.

The suit with the SEC is settled, but the SEC investigation is still ongoing.  If there is more to the Tesla story than what we already know, it probably won't take very long before we find out.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Cache_Stash on October 02, 2018, 06:33:30 AM
Ring a bell?

https://thereformedbroker.com/2018/09/28/the-nine-essential-conditions-to-commit-massive-fraud-2/
Scary parallels indeed.  But one striking difference between those other fraudsters and Musk, is that if he does turn out to be a fraud, he'll have been the first one in history, whether intentionally or not, to virtually invite regulatory scrutiny before the house of cards collapsed under its own weight.

The suit with the SEC is settled, but the SEC investigation is still ongoing.  If there is more to the Tesla story than what we already know, it probably won't take very long before we find out.

You can bet if they file for bankruptcy, there will be a full investigation by the DOJ and SEC.  You're right about how it usually ends.  Bankruptcy then investigation and charges.  The tweet, in my mind, is the beginning of the end.  We shall see.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: CCCA on October 04, 2018, 05:13:07 PM
Musk at it again with Twitter. This time calling the SEC the Shortseller Enrichment Commission and saying shorting stock should be illegal.

Seems like he’s testing the boundaries of his settlement with the SEC.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Cache_Stash on October 04, 2018, 05:49:49 PM
Musk at it again with Twitter. This time calling the SEC the Shortseller Enrichment Commission and saying shorting stock should be illegal.

Seems like he’s testing the boundaries of his settlement with the SEC.

This shows his ignorance.  Short selling helps with liquidity in the market and more importantly price discovery.

In my estimation he's ignorant when it comes to markets and how to run a business.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ILikeDividends on October 04, 2018, 06:58:42 PM
Musk at it again with Twitter. This time calling the SEC the Shortseller Enrichment Commission and saying shorting stock should be illegal.

Seems like he’s testing the boundaries of his settlement with the SEC.
Simply astonishing.

It looks like he reloaded his revolver, and is determined to shoot all of his remaining toes off.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: wheezle on October 04, 2018, 09:30:24 PM
Reading his most recent tirade, it sounds like he's given up. I don't know if that means he's splitting from the board or what, but it's wild.

He's blaming his woes on passive funds' lending shares to short-sellers.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ILikeDividends on October 04, 2018, 10:27:12 PM
I don't know if that means he's splitting from the board or what, but it's wild.

Oh, he's most certainly splitting from the board; at least for 3 years.  That was part of his settlement with the SEC.

But yeah, it's definitely wild, to say the least.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: wheezle on October 04, 2018, 10:35:47 PM
Oh, he's most certainly splitting from the board; at least for 3 years.  That was part of his settlement with the SEC.
Well, that was part of the settlement. Who knows if the settlement will even happen now... I guess it hadn't yet been confirmed. And now?

Earlier on I was thinking that the SEC wanted to settle because they thought the company was going to have to declare bankruptcy soon, and they didn't want Musk to use them as a scapegoat when it happened. Well, they got the settlement, but now Musk is trying to use them as a scapegoat anyway. Didn't see that one coming...
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ILikeDividends on October 04, 2018, 11:17:29 PM
Oh, he's most certainly splitting from the board; at least for 3 years.  That was part of his settlement with the SEC.
Well, that was part of the settlement. Who knows if the settlement will even happen now... I guess it hadn't yet been confirmed. And now?
Fair point.

"Federal courts have thrown out previous SEC settlements if they think the agency is too lenient."

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/04/elon-musks-settlement-with-sec-hits-a-snag.html

The best case scenario for Musk is that his settlement with the SEC is approved by a judge.  If a judge rules that a trial must proceed, or that the settlement should be harsher, despite the recent SEC settlement, it can only get worse for Musk and, possibly, for Tesla shareholders.  His latest tweets are not helping his cause; whatever the hell that cause might be.

IMO, one way or the other, Musk is gone from the COB position for at least three years; possibly longer.  If it goes to trial, Musk doesn't have a leg to stand on.  He will almost certainly be stripped of any possibility of serving on the BOD as well, if a trial goes forward.  My notoriously foggy crystal ball predicts that Tesla shareholders will be fine with that, if that's the only adjustment to the current SEC settlement.

Personally, I think the judge is acting well within the pubic's best interests in questioning the SEC settlement.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Car Jack on October 05, 2018, 05:31:42 AM
Looking towards a $275 opening.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: smallstache on October 05, 2018, 08:52:49 AM
The SEC was motivated to be "lenient" in the settlement because it considered the 80% of shares owned by people not named "Elon Musk."
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: smallstache on October 05, 2018, 08:54:31 AM
For the sake of Tesla shareholders, I really hope that Musk uses the experiences of the last two months for a little introspection (or a lot).  The settlement was crisis averted, but there had better be no more dumbass shenanigans.

As a corollary, if I was long Tesla I would use today's move as a chance to get out on a high note.  The damn thing is just way too volatile for me.  My wealth is my future, not a gamble on the whims of a single personality.

Hmm.  That proved prophetic.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Cache_Stash on October 05, 2018, 10:51:50 AM
Musk at it again with Twitter. This time calling the SEC the Shortseller Enrichment Commission and saying shorting stock should be illegal.

Seems like he’s testing the boundaries of his settlement with the SEC.

If you read the comments on the tweet, I would estimate that about 40% of them are from shareholders begging him to stop because he's hurting the longs.  YCMTSU.

He's a self-absorbed individual that thinks he's above the law.  Again, I don't think this will end well.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on November 05, 2018, 09:18:00 PM
I made the following predictions on this thread on March 29 of this year. I predicted Tesla will end 2018:

With at least one, possibly two profitable quarters - Third qtr profit confirmed.
Sell over 250,000 vehicles (S, X, M3), which would be 150% YOY growth - YTD 167,975 cars produced. Third qtr production was 80,142. So, Tesla need only produce 83,000 vehicles in Q4 to hit 250,00 for the year.
Stock price over $400 - Stock price up around $100 in the past few weeks. Suspect we'll approach ATH in coming weeks and climb over $400 with profitable Q4. Stock remains one of the most shorted stocks in the market, but I also suspect we'll see some capitulation soon.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on November 06, 2018, 04:56:49 AM
Interesting how none of the naysayers showed up again after 3Q earnings.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: nick663 on November 06, 2018, 10:24:08 AM
Interesting how none of the naysayers showed up again after 3Q earnings.
Your last post in the thread was August 7th.  You want to talk about why you disappeared between then and now? :)
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Telecaster on November 06, 2018, 11:06:36 AM
I don't know if I was one of the naysayers exactly, but TSLA stock still comes with a hefty growth premium.   GM and TSLA have about the same market cap, only GM has ten times the revenue.    So it could be that at some point in the future TSLA will be the same size as the GM, but that's a lot of catching up to do. 
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on November 06, 2018, 01:49:58 PM
I've held. $2000/share in 5 years. Tesla is a tech company that sells cars. It's not appropriate to compare Tesla to GM. GM is strictly an auto company. Uber's value is over $50 billion, but Tesla is going to use its existing (and future) fleet of cars to dominate Uber with automated ride sharing. GM has invested in Lyft, but they are years behind Tesla in infrastructure. Even if you did a straight comparison in the auto space, GM can't come close to Tesla on Gross Profit or sales in the categories Tesla already occupies. GM's main product line is the combustion engine. It has billions in assets tied up in that infrastructure. It's bound to its dealer network. I.E. It has every incentive to not fully compete. Tesla still has a long future product line in ride sharing, trucks, manufacturing technology, home energy, utilities, superchargers, and obviously partnerships with SpaceX. In the long run, it's already over.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on November 06, 2018, 06:15:39 PM
Interesting how none of the naysayers showed up again after 3Q earnings.
Your last post in the thread was August 7th.  You want to talk about why you disappeared between then and now? :)

Sure. I wasn't interested enough to comment. Some other people seemed Really Committed to the thread in the meantime.

*shrug*
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on November 06, 2018, 06:41:09 PM
I don't know if I was one of the naysayers exactly, but TSLA stock still comes with a hefty growth premium.   GM and TSLA have about the same market cap, only GM has ten times the revenue.    So it could be that at some point in the future TSLA will be the same size as the GM, but that's a lot of catching up to do.

Sure. I see some big differences:

Tesla has quite a few obvious paths to growth (Expanded production of existing models, entering the crossover market, entering the Semi market, entering the pickup truck market, energy storage growth, energy generation growth...) - while GM is big, I don't really see that much growth potential.

Tesla also has a track record of executing a significant growth rate - on average their annual rate of growth by number of cars is around 50%, starting in 2012 when they launched the Model S. Not totally consistent - last year was something like 35%, this year is going to be something around 100% if not more. GM output is relatively flat.

Tesla has some pretty big advantages for the EV market. They have a high volume (possibly 50% of all EV cells by capacity) source of high quality batteries/cells at a very good price, and that capacity can be ramped pretty rapidly. GM buys cells from LG, and there have been many reports of shortages. GM has some joint ventures in China, but Tesla will be the first foreign automaker to be full owners of their China factory.

If you want an EV that can drive across the USA, you either buy a Tesla and use Superchargers at a mild time penalty charging compared to ICE vehicles - or you take a huge time penalty charging with any other EV.

Despite all the moaning about missed targets, Tesla has ramped the Model 3 to production rates >4000 vehicles per week and profitability. The Bolt, once touted as real competition for Tesla and launched the prior year on an existing assembly line is being produced at maybe 200-300 vehicles per week.

Tesla had losses of ~$2Billion in 2017. GM had losses of ~$4Billion in 2017.

The "GM has 10x more revenue" might have been accurate last year. If you look at 3Q18 - GM only has ~5x more revenue than Tesla.

If Tesla keeps their ~50% growth rate for 4 more years,  they will reach GM revenues. "Some point in the future" is coming fast.

Will Tesla continue to execute well enough? I don't know - but I can see how a compelling story can be written.

Disclosure: I don't own any individual stocks. Just broad based index funds.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Telecaster on November 07, 2018, 11:01:28 AM
I don't know if I was one of the naysayers exactly, but TSLA stock still comes with a hefty growth premium.   GM and TSLA have about the same market cap, only GM has ten times the revenue.    So it could be that at some point in the future TSLA will be the same size as the GM, but that's a lot of catching up to do.

Sure. I see some big differences:

Tesla has quite a few obvious paths to growth (Expanded production of existing models, entering the crossover market, entering the Semi market, entering the pickup truck market, energy storage growth, energy generation growth...) - while GM is big, I don't really see that much growth potential.

Tesla also has a track record of executing a significant growth rate - on average their annual rate of growth by number of cars is around 50%, starting in 2012 when they launched the Model S. Not totally consistent - last year was something like 35%, this year is going to be something around 100% if not more. GM output is relatively flat.

I agree with all your points.  Here's the thing:  *If* GM is valued fairly, then Tesla needs maintain that growth rate for something like seven or eight more years just to get to the same position where GM is right now.   It is certainly possible that could happen, but the stock price has already priced in all the growth.  Ideally you want a stock with growth potential, but without the price premium.  Easier said than done, I realize. 

Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Car Jack on November 07, 2018, 12:29:26 PM
The Wild Card......

VW

As part of the Dieselgate settlement, they have to set up (and are doing it quickly) a nationwide charging network.  Expect a floodgate of VW electric models to open at some point.  VW knows how to build cars.  Like....no.....really.  They do.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on November 07, 2018, 07:53:44 PM
That loss in 2017 for GM was related to getting out of the European car manufacturing business, i.e. the sale of European Opel-Vauxhall business.

Otherwise the company is very profitable. Also something happened that year where the Tax expense equaled the Income before tax.  I'm guessing that's related to deferred tax assets that may no longer be assets as a result of the tax law changes.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on November 08, 2018, 12:48:17 PM
I don't know if I was one of the naysayers exactly, but TSLA stock still comes with a hefty growth premium.   GM and TSLA have about the same market cap, only GM has ten times the revenue.    So it could be that at some point in the future TSLA will be the same size as the GM, but that's a lot of catching up to do.

Sure. I see some big differences:

Tesla has quite a few obvious paths to growth (Expanded production of existing models, entering the crossover market, entering the Semi market, entering the pickup truck market, energy storage growth, energy generation growth...) - while GM is big, I don't really see that much growth potential.

Tesla also has a track record of executing a significant growth rate - on average their annual rate of growth by number of cars is around 50%, starting in 2012 when they launched the Model S. Not totally consistent - last year was something like 35%, this year is going to be something around 100% if not more. GM output is relatively flat.

I agree with all your points.  Here's the thing:  *If* GM is valued fairly, then Tesla needs maintain that growth rate for something like seven or eight more years just to get to the same position where GM is right now.   It is certainly possible that could happen, but the stock price has already priced in all the growth.  Ideally you want a stock with growth potential, but without the price premium.  Easier said than done, I realize.

Please show your math for the 7 or 8 years, using the existing revenue growth rate for Tesla and projecting forward. I already did it for vehicle count, and that was ~4 years to match GM. If you expect the growth rate to slow, please give a rationale.

Note again that 3Q2018, GM only had 5x the revenue of Tesla.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Grog on November 08, 2018, 02:07:49 PM
Tesla has their data priced in. Gm may have more assets, but they don't have the millions of miles of data log, camera output radar, driver decision etc all synchronized and reused to train their neural network.
Tesla will be selling 250000 car in 2018. If every car runs 10000 miles per year, they will be generating 2.5 billions of miles of data loggin 2019. And this without counting car produced before 2018 and during 2019.
Data is the new oil. Tesla should be worth much more just for their data.
No other car company comes even close to this or has an infrastructure in place to access data remotely and reintegrated in the ai training.
Why do you think they are asking driver for confirmation of lane change in the latest release? Is not only legal issue . They are validating, labeling the data using their customer. Is brilliant. Every time a driver confirm, you create a positive test scenario for training validated by a human. Every time the driver do not confirm, they create a negative test scenario validated by a human for further training.
They know software and AI. Other car companies have no ideas. They are reactive, Tesla is disruptive.
It will be fascinating to see.




Sent from my Hisense A2T using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Pizzabrewer on November 08, 2018, 03:36:13 PM
A company run by a person who can do THIS (see video in the link) is next-level, next-generation compared to GM. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0-pfzKbh2k
 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0-pfzKbh2k)
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on November 08, 2018, 05:39:10 PM
A company run by a person who can do THIS (see video in the link) is next-level, next-generation compared to GM. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0-pfzKbh2k
 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0-pfzKbh2k)

As much as I admire Elon and the accomplishments of SpaceX (we went to see the Falcon Heavy launch in person) - that's a different company which only makes maybe 2 product items (rockets, Dragon capsules) per month.

Tesla makes maybe 30,000 items (cars) per month.

GM makes 800,000 items (cars) per month.

Quantity has a quality all its own.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on February 05, 2019, 09:58:47 AM
I made the following predictions on this thread on March 29 of this year. I predicted Tesla will end 2018:

With at least one, possibly two profitable quarters - Third qtr profit confirmed.
Sell over 250,000 vehicles (S, X, M3), which would be 150% YOY growth - YTD 167,975 cars produced. Third qtr production was 80,142. So, Tesla need only produce 83,000 vehicles in Q4 to hit 250,00 for the year.
Stock price over $400 - Stock price up around $100 in the past few weeks. Suspect we'll approach ATH in coming weeks and climb over $400 with profitable Q4. Stock remains one of the most shorted stocks in the market, but I also suspect we'll see some capitulation soon.

Alright, time to circle back one last time on the predictions made in March 2018. I predicted...

1) Tesla would have one or two profitable qtrs in 2018. Check, Tesla was profitable by good margins in both Q3 and Q4.
2) Tesla would sell over 250,000 vehicles in 2018. Check, Tesla ended in 2018 having sold just over 255,000 vehicles (150% YOY growth)
3) Stock price over $400. A miss, the stock price today sits at $319. Obviously Tesla has the least direct control over this one. The stock remains heavily shorted, despite Tesla's dismantling of the bear arguments over the M3 production ramp, sustained demand, and profitability. Macro environment (China trade dispute, government shutdown, Fed rate hikes) have also been a drag. Where the stock may very well have been over-valued 3 years ago, I see current prices as an excellent buying opportunity. It's more clear than ever that EVs are the future and Tesla will be the leader in that transition for years to come.  Bears will continue to move the goal posts and offer proclamations of Tesla's imminent demise, as they have over the past decade.

Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ChpBstrd on February 05, 2019, 11:26:11 AM
Regarding prediction #3, I don't think Tesla or the shorts have control over the stock price. It is more a function of investors' risk appetite at any given time than it is a function of performance metrics like revenue or profit. E.g. does it make sense to say TSLA is a bargain or overpriced because it has a PE of negative 54? For money losing companies, it's the future that matters, and without past performance to guide us the future stock price is a guess. Perhaps the tariff wars gave Chinese EV manufacturers a permanent worldwide lead, and the sub-$400 stock price is based on lowered expectations. Or perhaps by going through "manufacturing hell" TSLA has made the down payment on a profit-making machine. Pick your narrarive, but the specific numbers hardly matter. That's what makes it a speculation.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: mubington on February 05, 2019, 02:43:45 PM
My take on the Tesla Price,  is that sentiment will prop the price up, which will stagnate around 320 + or - 10%, for as many years as it takes for the PE to get below 30.

Currently I think the share price is roughly driven like this

Cars 200
Energy storage 30
Solar 10
FSD 30
Space x / Elon Musk fandom  50

It's amazing how much bears hate Elon Musk, convinced he is a total fraud. /r/realtesla is like a moon landings  cult or something!
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ChpBstrd on February 05, 2019, 03:47:47 PM
My take on the Tesla Price,  is that sentiment will prop the price up, which will stagnate around 320 + or - 10%, for as many years as it takes for the PE to get below 30.

Currently I think the share price is roughly driven like this

Cars 200
Energy storage 30
Solar 10
FSD 30
Space x / Elon Musk fandom  50

It's amazing how much bears hate Elon Musk, convinced he is a total fraud. /r/realtesla is like a moon landings  cult or something!

In fairness to the bears, Tesla does bear a striking resemblance to two bankrupt clean energy companies who produced more hype and media attention than products - Solyndra and Raser Technologies. And, in fairness, there are incentives for founders to creating a company on the basis of a large stock-funded bet on one technical path that has a miniscule probability of panning out. And, finally, you can win a bearish bet even if you were wrong about everything and a "risk off" market correction occurs.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solyndra (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solyndra)

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://phys.org/news/2009-04-hummer-mpg.amp&ved=2ahUKEwim2cPd1KXgAhUEVK0KHWcpAXQQFjAJegQICBAB&usg=AOvVaw1jB24sJh8bHOWTAgkKM_XJ&ampcf=1 (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://phys.org/news/2009-04-hummer-mpg.amp&ved=2ahUKEwim2cPd1KXgAhUEVK0KHWcpAXQQFjAJegQICBAB&usg=AOvVaw1jB24sJh8bHOWTAgkKM_XJ&ampcf=1)
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on February 05, 2019, 08:39:57 PM
I read an article about Elon Musk's terrible management style. And another article about the mishaps in delivering the Tesla 3 vehicles combined with problems with the vehicles.
After reading these articles I'm no longer enthralled by Elon Musk's foresight, I don't think he can really deliver what he claims he will, and I get a sense that the company is going to go bankrupt. Tesla will ultimately become known for causing the mainstream car companies to take electrification seriously.
Tesla is also caught between the anti-environmentalist sentiment of the White House and the effort by China's leadership to develop the energy technologies of the future in which only Chinese companies would be propped up by the Chinese government.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on February 05, 2019, 10:44:07 PM
I read an article about Elon Musk's terrible management style. And another article about the mishaps in delivering the Tesla 3 vehicles combined with problems with the vehicles.
After reading these articles I'm no longer enthralled by Elon Musk's foresight, I don't think he can really deliver what he claims he will, and I get a sense that the company is going to go bankrupt. Tesla will ultimately become known for causing the mainstream car companies to take electrification seriously.
Tesla is also caught between the anti-environmentalist sentiment of the White House and the effort by China's leadership to develop the energy technologies of the future in which only Chinese companies would be propped up by the Chinese government.

You suggest there are issues with Tesla vehicles based on an unreferenced news article, yet the M3 was just rated highest in customer satisfaction per Consumer Reports, beating out the Porsche 911.  With nearly 140,000 units sold, Model 3 was also the best-selling premium vehicle (including SUVs) in the US for 2018 – the first time in decades an American carmaker has been able to secure the top spot.  Tesla's cars are also some of the safest ever made. There were issues with the M3 ramp, but those have largely been addressed. Tesla produced and delivered about 90,000 vehicles in Q4 alone, which is more than they produced all of last year. That is amazing growth.

You get the "sense" that Tesla is going bankrupt, yet the company just turned a net profit in Q4 of $139M after turning a net profit of $312M in Q3 and the company has $3.7B in cash/cash equivalents at the end of 2018. They accomplished two consecutive profitable quarters while continuing to pump money into capex and RND (i.e., China gigafactory, more service centers, charging stations, battery research, etc.).

There is really nothing the White House can do to hurt Tesla at this point. Tesla has already reached the point where it will be phasing out the federal subsidy after reaching the 200,000 vehicles sold domestically milestone. As for China, perhaps you are unaware that Tesla is building Gigafactory #3 in China as we speak and will be selling vehicles manufactured in China to the Chinese market duty free by the end of the year.  Yes, there are Chinese EV manufacturers, but none offer the quality of Tesla.

Apparently, Elon's management style is so bad that he is successfully running two companies simultaneously in SpaceX and Tesla. I guess that's also why Tesla was ranked as the 5th best company in the country to work. Just because Elon is demanding does not mean that the majority of employees don't respect him and enjoy working for a cutting edge company with a rewarding mission.

If you're going to hate on Elon and Tesla can we at least ground the discussion in fact and not sentiment.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: mubington on February 06, 2019, 02:23:03 AM
Tesla media coverage is extraordinary.

Seekingalpha for instance generally pump out multiple articles on every news story, both bullish and bearish (but mostly bearish). This shotgun approach does have the benefit that probably at least one of the articles will be right, but look at the list of articles published by time, and you can often see entirely opposite forecast published within a few minutes.

Reddit is also interesting, the same story on 'teslamoters' and 'realtesla' using same data will have totally opposite spins.

The facts are, the company has targeting 30bn in revenue this year, with profit, and no raise. This combined with topping consumer satisfaction surveys, is not classic bankrupt trajectory.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Car Jack on February 06, 2019, 07:25:29 AM
You get the "sense" that Tesla is going bankrupt, yet the company just turned a net profit in Q4 of $139M after turning a net profit of $312M in Q3 and the company has $3.7 in cash/cash equivalents at the end of 2018. They accomplished two consecutive profitable quarters while continuing to pump money into capex and RND (i.e., China gigafactory, more service centers, charging stations, battery research, etc.).

But they're also $10B in debt.

My view is the Elon is unable to focus.  This Boring company is just stupid.  The flame thrower that's not a flame thrower is fine if his goal is to be a youtuber.  Is Space-X making money or is it yet another distraction?  An buying Solar City seemed to me like just helping out the family with investors' money.  Elon......stop trying to do everything.  Do one thing.  Or put good people in place and get the hell out of the way.  I think his inability to take up the next shiny thing he finds will be the downfall of all the companies.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on February 06, 2019, 10:56:30 AM
I hope you're right ColoradoTribe about Tesla's prospects.

But at this point Elon Musk is what's standing in the way of Tesla's success.

Tesla is succeeding because of all the dedicated engineers and management and other employees who don't get any publicity.

Elon Musk is just firing employees willy nilly based on scant evidence. Musk had a good idea, and started the company, but now he basically is a drain on the company.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on February 06, 2019, 11:11:44 AM
You get the "sense" that Tesla is going bankrupt, yet the company just turned a net profit in Q4 of $139M after turning a net profit of $312M in Q3 and the company has $3.7 in cash/cash equivalents at the end of 2018. They accomplished two consecutive profitable quarters while continuing to pump money into capex and RND (i.e., China gigafactory, more service centers, charging stations, battery research, etc.).

But they're also $10B in debt.

My view is the Elon is unable to focus.  This Boring company is just stupid.  The flame thrower that's not a flame thrower is fine if his goal is to be a youtuber.  Is Space-X making money or is it yet another distraction?  An buying Solar City seemed to me like just helping out the family with investors' money.  Elon......stop trying to do everything.  Do one thing.  Or put good people in place and get the hell out of the way.  I think his inability to take up the next shiny thing he finds will be the downfall of all the companies.

That $10B debt number includes all the part inventory, as well as produced, but yet undelivered vehicles. So, while it's technically accurate to call that debt, it really isn't debt in any meaningful sense, as Tesla sells every car it makes at an average profit margin of 20%. Tesla has already announced it has cash on hand to pay its March 2019 bond obligations ($920M). Six months ago every bear was pointing to this March debt repayment deadline as the point of imminent bankruptcy. Again, there is no evidence that Tesla is going to go bankrupt. At this point, even if they needed to raise additional cash, there would be no shortage of deep-pocketed investors willing to invest or buyers for Tesla.

Also, keep in mind that the debt/bankruptcy narrative is only the latest bear boogie-man. As a refresher here are the past arguments:

1) Tesla can't make a compelling EV.
2) Nobody will buy an EV.
3) Tesla can't mass produce a compelling EV.
4) The demand will dry up.
5) Tesla can't turn a profit

Probably missing a few in there, but the argument now is...okay, sure Tesla can make a compelling EV, profitability, in mass number, that people are lining up to buy, but they're going bankrupt any day now. Doesn't compute...

Keep in mind Tesla has accomplished this with virtually zero advertising or marketing budget. Imagine the demand if they were actively marketing their cars. The reason they aren't spending on advertisement is that can't keep pace with current demand.

It is my understanding that SpaceX is profitable. The flamethrower was unneccessary, but I doubt Elon invested any real amount of time to it. As for the boring company, only time will tell if that's a winner or not. As a Tesla investor would I prefer Elon devote 100% of his time to Tesla (and stay off Twitter), absolutely. Do I think Tesla is doomed to failure because it's not Elon's sole focus, absolutely not.

We keep having forest vs tree dicussions it seems to me. Bears keep pointing to a few dead trees, but can't see the healthy (and growing) forest that surrounds them.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on February 06, 2019, 11:21:07 AM
I hope you're right ColoradoTribe about Tesla's prospects.

But at this point Elon Musk is what's standing in the way of Tesla's success.

Tesla is succeeding because of all the dedicated engineers and management and other employees who don't get any publicity.

Elon Musk is just firing employees willy nilly based on scant evidence. Musk had a good idea, and started the company, but now he basically is a drain on the company.

Once again, what proof can you offer to back the claim that Elon is firing employees "willy-nilly"? If Elon was as much of a tyrant as you believe and employees lived in fear of being fired at any moment, would Tesla be ranked the 5th best company in the country to work? And culling 7% of the workforce to improve efficiency and profitability is not "willy-nilly" IMO.

I think I can disprove your statement about Elon being a detriment to Tesla in one simple thought experiment? If Elon Musk were to die and you were given 24-hr notice before his passing was made public, would you buy or sell Tesla stock with your insider knowledge??

No doubt in my mind that if Elon died tomorrow the stock price would drop 25-50% in an instant with little short-term rebound. Something happening to Elon is really the only thing that gives me pause when considering my TSLA position.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on February 06, 2019, 11:44:11 AM
Tesla media coverage is extraordinary.

Seekingalpha for instance generally pump out multiple articles on every news story, both bullish and bearish (but mostly bearish). This shotgun approach does have the benefit that probably at least one of the articles will be right, but look at the list of articles published by time, and you can often see entirely opposite forecast published within a few minutes.

Reddit is also interesting, the same story on 'teslamoters' and 'realtesla' using same data will have totally opposite spins.

The facts are, the company has targeting 30bn in revenue this year, with profit, and no raise. This combined with topping consumer satisfaction surveys, is not classic bankrupt trajectory.

As you suggest, coverage on seeking Alpha is overwhelmingly negative/bearish (4:1 ratio). Not only are the articles simply bearish, they are often riddled with cherry-picked data, fear-mongering, conjecture, faulty extrapolations, anecdotal bias, etc.  Generally, very poor journalism and I feel sorry for anyone making Tesla investment decisions based on the Seeking Alpha news feed.

Overall, there is a huge media bias against Tesla. You have a rare American manufacturing and jobs success story, the start of a potential green transportation and energy storage revolution, and the coverage across the board is overwhelming negative these past few years (once Tesla started to achieve success in the form of market share).

Astute observers should be asking why is the media coverage turning increasing negative at a time when Tesla is achieving rapid growth and profitability. For me, there are two simply and logical reasons.

1) Tesla is disrupting not just one, but several huge industries, including oil production and refining, vehicle manufacturing, car dealerships, and fossil-fuel based utility companies.

2) These disrupted industries have huge advertising budgets, whereas Tesla does virtually no advertising.

The result? You have biased media protecting precious advertising revenue and powerful (politically and financially) industries willing to buy and produce news coverage critical of Tesla to protect their billions in profit by stopping or at least slowing Tesla's advance.

The famous Ghandi quote goes (paraphrasing), "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win." In the early days Tesla was either laughed at or ignored. The same Elon (warts and all) who today is eviscerated in the media coverage, was a media darling. The minute Tesla went from a cute little green, feel-good story, to an actual disruptive threat to the interests listed above, the coverage turned on a dime.  Elon hasn't changed, Tesla is far-less likely to fail today than five years ago, so why the shift?  Follow the money...
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ChpBstrd on February 06, 2019, 11:58:17 AM
Tesla media coverage is extraordinary.

Seekingalpha for instance generally pump out multiple articles on every news story, both bullish and bearish (but mostly bearish). This shotgun approach does have the benefit that probably at least one of the articles will be right, but look at the list of articles published by time, and you can often see entirely opposite forecast published within a few minutes.

Reddit is also interesting, the same story on 'teslamoters' and 'realtesla' using same data will have totally opposite spins.

The facts are, the company has targeting 30bn in revenue this year, with profit, and no raise. This combined with topping consumer satisfaction surveys, is not classic bankrupt trajectory.

As you suggest, coverage on seeking Alpha is overwhelmingly negative/bearish (4:1 ratio). Not only are the articles simply bearish, they are often riddled with cherry-picked data, fear-mongering, conjecture, faulty extrapolations, anecdotal bias, etc.  Generally, very poor journalism and I feel sorry for anyone making Tesla investment decisions based on the Seeking Alpha news feed.

Overall, there is a huge media bias against Tesla. You have a rare American manufacturing and jobs success story, the start of a potential green transportation and energy storage revolution, and the coverage across the board is overwhelming negative these past few years (once Tesla started to achieve success in the form of market share).

Astute observers should be asking why is the media coverage turning increasing negative at a time when Tesla is achieving rapid growth and profitability. For me, there are two simply and logical reasons.

1) Tesla is disrupting not just one, but several huge industries, including oil production and refining, vehicle manufacturing, car dealerships, and fossil-fuel based utility companies.

2) These disrupted industries have huge advertising budgets, whereas Tesla does virtually no advertising.

The result? You have biased media protecting precious advertising revenue and powerful (politically and financially) industries willing to buy and produce news coverage critical of Tesla to protect their billions in profit by stopping or at least slowing Tesla's advance.

The famous Ghandi quote goes (paraphrasing), "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win." In the early days Tesla was either laughed at or ignored. The same Elon (warts and all) who today is eviscerated in the media coverage, was a media darling. The minute Tesla went from a cute little green, feel-good story, to an actual disruptive threat to the interests listed above, the coverage turned on a dime.  Elon hasn't changed, Tesla is far-less likely to fail today than five years ago, so why the shift?  Follow the money...

The other thing that changed over the past couple of years is a lot more individual investors bought a lot more of the notoriously volatile TSLA stock. Now they fear a decline. Perhaps the bias is simply that fear sells.

Also, have you noticed how much of the "news" is about what some influencer tweeted? This is probably due to the fact there are so few journalists left, so "news" organizations cover the cheapest, least time-consuming things possible, rather than attempting to tell complicated or investigative stories via smartphone. You don't have to spend time explaining EBITDA coverage or corporate debt restructuring when the story is about someone saying something stupid on social media.

Anyway, the news about Tesla tweets has painted a picture of incompetence, while the company's progress is the opposite.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: flipboard on February 06, 2019, 12:12:40 PM
Tesla media coverage is extraordinary.

Seekingalpha for instance generally pump out multiple articles on every news story, both bullish and bearish (but mostly bearish). This shotgun approach does have the benefit that probably at least one of the articles will be right, but look at the list of articles published by time, and you can often see entirely opposite forecast published within a few minutes.

Reddit is also interesting, the same story on 'teslamoters' and 'realtesla' using same data will have totally opposite spins.

The facts are, the company has targeting 30bn in revenue this year, with profit, and no raise. This combined with topping consumer satisfaction surveys, is not classic bankrupt trajectory.

As you suggest, coverage on seeking Alpha is overwhelmingly negative/bearish (4:1 ratio). Not only are the articles simply bearish, they are often riddled with cherry-picked data, fear-mongering, conjecture, faulty extrapolations, anecdotal bias, etc.  Generally, very poor journalism and I feel sorry for anyone making Tesla investment decisions based on the Seeking Alpha news feed.

Overall, there is a huge media bias against Tesla. You have a rare American manufacturing and jobs success story, the start of a potential green transportation and energy storage revolution, and the coverage across the board is overwhelming negative these past few years (once Tesla started to achieve success in the form of market share).

Astute observers should be asking why is the media coverage turning increasing negative at a time when Tesla is achieving rapid growth and profitability. For me, there are two simply and logical reasons.

1) Tesla is disrupting not just one, but several huge industries, including oil production and refining, vehicle manufacturing, car dealerships, and fossil-fuel based utility companies.

2) These disrupted industries have huge advertising budgets, whereas Tesla does virtually no advertising.

The result? You have biased media protecting precious advertising revenue and powerful (politically and financially) industries willing to buy and produce news coverage critical of Tesla to protect their billions in profit by stopping or at least slowing Tesla's advance.

The famous Ghandi quote goes (paraphrasing), "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win." In the early days Tesla was either laughed at or ignored. The same Elon (warts and all) who today is eviscerated in the media coverage, was a media darling. The minute Tesla went from a cute little green, feel-good story, to an actual disruptive threat to the interests listed above, the coverage turned on a dime.  Elon hasn't changed, Tesla is far-less likely to fail today than five years ago, so why the shift?  Follow the money...
Every single thing you say in your post... I have seen stated in the same way... but about bitcoin, by bitcoin proponents (exactly the same theories on media bias, negativity, disruption, etc.). Even that Ghandi quote, it was a big staple amongst bitcoin supporters.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: mubington on February 06, 2019, 12:19:47 PM
Everything, except perhaps the bit about revenue growth and profitability....

Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on February 06, 2019, 12:33:07 PM
I hope Tesla succeeds but based on this article in Wired Magazine I don't think Elon Musk is helping anymore.
Musk needs to step down and let the company be run by professionals.

https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-tesla-life-inside-gigafactory/

It's this article that soured me.

Here's an excerpt from the article:

Musk had demanded that his factories be automated as much as possible. But among the consequences of this extreme roboticization were delays and malfunctions.

At about 10 o’clock on Saturday evening, an angry Musk was examining one of the production line’s mechanized modules, trying to figure out what was wrong, when the young, excited engineer was brought over to assist him.
“Hey, buddy, this doesn’t work!” Musk shouted at the engineer, according to someone who heard the conversation. “Did you do this?”
The engineer was taken aback. He had never met Musk before. Musk didn’t even know the engineer’s name. The young man wasn’t certain what, exactly, Musk was asking him, or why he sounded so angry.
“You mean, program the robot?” the engineer said. “Or design that tool?”
“Did you fucking do this?” Musk asked him.

“I’m not sure what you’re referring to?” the engineer replied apologetically.
“You’re a fucking idiot!” Musk shouted back. “Get the fuck out and don’t come back!”
The young engineer climbed over a low safety barrier and walked away. He was bewildered by what had just happened. The entire conversation had lasted less than a minute. A few moments later, his manager came over to say that he had been fired on Musk’s orders, according to two people with knowledge of the situation. The engineer was shocked. He’d been working so hard. He was set to get a review from his manager the next week, and had been hearing only positive things. Instead, two days later, he signed his separation papers.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on February 06, 2019, 01:13:35 PM
Tesla media coverage is extraordinary.

Seekingalpha for instance generally pump out multiple articles on every news story, both bullish and bearish (but mostly bearish). This shotgun approach does have the benefit that probably at least one of the articles will be right, but look at the list of articles published by time, and you can often see entirely opposite forecast published within a few minutes.

Reddit is also interesting, the same story on 'teslamoters' and 'realtesla' using same data will have totally opposite spins.

The facts are, the company has targeting 30bn in revenue this year, with profit, and no raise. This combined with topping consumer satisfaction surveys, is not classic bankrupt trajectory.

As you suggest, coverage on seeking Alpha is overwhelmingly negative/bearish (4:1 ratio). Not only are the articles simply bearish, they are often riddled with cherry-picked data, fear-mongering, conjecture, faulty extrapolations, anecdotal bias, etc.  Generally, very poor journalism and I feel sorry for anyone making Tesla investment decisions based on the Seeking Alpha news feed.

Overall, there is a huge media bias against Tesla. You have a rare American manufacturing and jobs success story, the start of a potential green transportation and energy storage revolution, and the coverage across the board is overwhelming negative these past few years (once Tesla started to achieve success in the form of market share).

Astute observers should be asking why is the media coverage turning increasing negative at a time when Tesla is achieving rapid growth and profitability. For me, there are two simply and logical reasons.

1) Tesla is disrupting not just one, but several huge industries, including oil production and refining, vehicle manufacturing, car dealerships, and fossil-fuel based utility companies.

2) These disrupted industries have huge advertising budgets, whereas Tesla does virtually no advertising.

The result? You have biased media protecting precious advertising revenue and powerful (politically and financially) industries willing to buy and produce news coverage critical of Tesla to protect their billions in profit by stopping or at least slowing Tesla's advance.

The famous Ghandi quote goes (paraphrasing), "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win." In the early days Tesla was either laughed at or ignored. The same Elon (warts and all) who today is eviscerated in the media coverage, was a media darling. The minute Tesla went from a cute little green, feel-good story, to an actual disruptive threat to the interests listed above, the coverage turned on a dime.  Elon hasn't changed, Tesla is far-less likely to fail today than five years ago, so why the shift?  Follow the money...
Every single thing you say in your post... I have seen stated in the same way... but about bitcoin, by bitcoin proponents (exactly the same theories on media bias, negativity, disruption, etc.). Even that Ghandi quote, it was a big staple amongst bitcoin supporters.

Not sure of your point here. The sun and lemons are both yellow and round therefore they are similar. The differences between Tesla and Bitcoin are obviously far greater than any coincidental similarities. I would never invest in Bitcoin.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on February 06, 2019, 01:18:23 PM
I hope Tesla succeeds but based on this article in Wired Magazine I don't think Elon Musk is helping anymore.
Musk needs to step down and let the company be run by professionals.

https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-tesla-life-inside-gigafactory/

It's this article that soured me.

Here's an excerpt from the article:

Musk had demanded that his factories be automated as much as possible. But among the consequences of this extreme roboticization were delays and malfunctions.

At about 10 o’clock on Saturday evening, an angry Musk was examining one of the production line’s mechanized modules, trying to figure out what was wrong, when the young, excited engineer was brought over to assist him.
“Hey, buddy, this doesn’t work!” Musk shouted at the engineer, according to someone who heard the conversation. “Did you do this?”
The engineer was taken aback. He had never met Musk before. Musk didn’t even know the engineer’s name. The young man wasn’t certain what, exactly, Musk was asking him, or why he sounded so angry.
“You mean, program the robot?” the engineer said. “Or design that tool?”
“Did you fucking do this?” Musk asked him.

“I’m not sure what you’re referring to?” the engineer replied apologetically.
“You’re a fucking idiot!” Musk shouted back. “Get the fuck out and don’t come back!”
The young engineer climbed over a low safety barrier and walked away. He was bewildered by what had just happened. The entire conversation had lasted less than a minute. A few moments later, his manager came over to say that he had been fired on Musk’s orders, according to two people with knowledge of the situation. The engineer was shocked. He’d been working so hard. He was set to get a review from his manager the next week, and had been hearing only positive things. Instead, two days later, he signed his separation papers.

An anecdotal third party account of one interaction between Musk and an employee. Assuming this account is even true, I would take the company's ranking among the best places to work in the country, which surveys a large cross-section of Tesla employees over this singular account. Also, as stated by others, even assholes can be wildly successful at running companies.

You didn't respond to my hypothetical. Are you scooping up Tesla stock with insider knowledge of Elon's passing?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on February 06, 2019, 01:25:26 PM
Then there are the problems of Model 3 delivery

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/15/business/tesla-model-3-buyers.html

Excerpt from the article (but I'll add that given Musk's behavior toward his employees it's not surprising that many aspects of the company are not working well - because when you fire your employees willy nilly you've chased out the competent ones that would have prevented these problems in the first place.)

"What Tesla’s ‘Delivery Logistics Hell’ Is Like for Model 3 Buyers"

Elon Musk has described Tesla’s troubles in getting cars to customers as “delivery logistics hell.”

Jim Fyfe knows what Mr. Musk, Tesla’s chief executive, was talking about.

A 44-year-old technology specialist at a bank in Jacksonville, Fla., Mr. Fyfe paid a $2,500 deposit in June to order a black Performance version of the Model 3 priced at $70,000.

He was given a delivery date in early September, but when he went to collect the car, he was told that it was still in California, Mr. Fyfe recalled. Two weeks later, with no update, Mr. Fyfe called the delivery center and was given bad news: His Model 3 had been involved in an accident in transit.

Days later, Mr. Fyfe asked for his money back, but quickly received an email saying Tesla had another car for him. Delivery was set for Oct. 27, but as Mr. Fyfe was heading to the rendezvous, his phone rang. A Tesla sales representative said this second car was no longer available because it, too, had been in an accident. A Tesla spokeswoman said that was a mistaken reference to the original car."
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on February 06, 2019, 01:31:56 PM
Then there are the problems of Model 3 delivery

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/15/business/tesla-model-3-buyers.html

Excerpt from the article (but I'll add that given Musk's behavior toward his employees it's not surprising that many aspects of the company are not working well - because when you fire your employees willy nilly you've chased out the competent ones that would have prevented these problems in the first place.)

"What Tesla’s ‘Delivery Logistics Hell’ Is Like for Model 3 Buyers"

Elon Musk has described Tesla’s troubles in getting cars to customers as “delivery logistics hell.”

Jim Fyfe knows what Mr. Musk, Tesla’s chief executive, was talking about.

A 44-year-old technology specialist at a bank in Jacksonville, Fla., Mr. Fyfe paid a $2,500 deposit in June to order a black Performance version of the Model 3 priced at $70,000.

He was given a delivery date in early September, but when he went to collect the car, he was told that it was still in California, Mr. Fyfe recalled. Two weeks later, with no update, Mr. Fyfe called the delivery center and was given bad news: His Model 3 had been involved in an accident in transit.

Days later, Mr. Fyfe asked for his money back, but quickly received an email saying Tesla had another car for him. Delivery was set for Oct. 27, but as Mr. Fyfe was heading to the rendezvous, his phone rang. A Tesla sales representative said this second car was no longer available because it, too, had been in an accident. A Tesla spokeswoman said that was a mistaken reference to the original car."

And yet Tesla delivered more vehicles in Q4 of 2018 than they did in all of 2017. No company growing this fast isn't going to experience growing pains. The question is not wether or not problems will arise (they will), but can the company correct and continually improve. Tesla has overcome every obstacle to date, not always as efficiently or as timely as I would like, but overcome and continued to expand none-the-less. Again, forest vs trees here.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on February 06, 2019, 02:09:47 PM
I hope you're right.

But we don't know for sure.  I still think that Musk is now an obstacle to the success based on what I'm reading from the journalists.

Not knowing is why I would never invest in a single company stock, and choose to go with the Total Stock Market Index.
I own Tesla as a result of owning the index.

I still want Tesla to succeed and disrupt the whole gasoline/petroleum/auto industrial complex.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: flipboard on February 06, 2019, 11:16:37 PM
Not sure of your point here. The sun and lemons are both yellow and round therefore they are similar. The differences between Tesla and Bitcoin are obviously far greater than any coincidental similarities. I would never invest in Bitcoin.
My point is that this thread seems to contain a lot of posts that are mostly emotional argument, and appeals to emotion, as opposed to true understanding and discussion of fundamentals (not as if it's easy to predict single stock's anyway...). Which happens to remind me of bitcoin discussions that I've seen. I just thought it was an interesting comparison, but I can also see how it might upset fanboys who think Tesla will "go to the moon" (it might, it might not - I couldn't care less myself).
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on February 06, 2019, 11:27:12 PM
Not sure of your point here. The sun and lemons are both yellow and round therefore they are similar. The differences between Tesla and Bitcoin are obviously far greater than any coincidental similarities. I would never invest in Bitcoin.
My point is that this thread seems to contain a lot of posts that are mostly emotional argument, and appeals to emotion, as opposed to true understanding and discussion of fundamentals (not as if it's easy to predict single stock's anyway...). Which happens to remind me of bitcoin discussions that I've seen. I just thought it was an interesting comparison, but I can also see how it might upset fanboys who think Tesla will "go to the moon" (it might, it might not - I couldn't care less myself).

I posted several facts, numbers, links, etc. above. My original post yesterday was me following up on actual measurable predictions I made six months ago. If you read the last 20 posts on this thread it is the bear posters relying on sentiment, anecdotal evidence, and gut feelings. Your comparison to Bitcoin was shallow and poor IMO. Tesla actually manufacturers multiple products profitably, has employees, factories, publicly traded stock, SEC oversight, etc. Bitcoin is...well Bitcoin.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: CCCA on April 26, 2019, 04:21:24 PM
Hopefully I'm not reviving a dead conversation that others want to stay dead, but since Tesla is back in the news these days, it seems as good a time as any.  I've been following the news recently and it seems like there is a severe lack of credibility from Tesla these days. 

Their claims that they've solved level 5 autonomy are pretty unbelievable and in 1 year they'll have 1 million robo taxis on the road.  I don't think anyone in the autonomy world believes that will happen in 5 years, some probably would say 10 even. 

Their quarterly earnings were pretty bad but maybe it's a blip in the road? I've been tracking model 3 sales and it seems like US demand (even with the recently announced $35k version) is lagging.  I think they've burned through most of their built up demand.  There is no huge pool of people still waiting for model 3s now, just a normal rate of people buying them.  They didn't make much money selling $50k+ model 3s but reducing the price to juice the demand means that they'll be losing more money with each car sold.

Musk said they'd offer tesla insurance next month.  I'm not even sure what to say about that. 

Are they really expanding their service centers that they need to in order to maintain all the new cars they've sold?

They almost closed all of the stores last month before doing an about face.

I don't doubt that there are lots of people who like their Teslas (I know a few).  I also don't doubt that they would be a fine niche automaker selling 50k to 150k cars per year without Musk.  But they are severely overvalued at their current share price if that's their fate. 

Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lowroller4111 on April 26, 2019, 04:55:22 PM
TSLA is done...if they are struggling in the best blockbuster economy of all time imagine what will happen to them in the upcoming slowdown when auto sales will fall off a cliff.  This company is over in my opinion.  In no way am I making judgements on the products itself which I think are very innovative, it's just that it isn't economically viable in a tighter monetary environment (considering it's been barely viable in a cheap money and credit environment), consider TSLA just a big experiment in technological excess which will be the first thing to go offline in a recession.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: nick663 on April 26, 2019, 05:11:02 PM
Just another buying opportunity.

*chuckles*
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on April 26, 2019, 08:01:17 PM
Their claims that they've solved level 5 autonomy are pretty unbelievable and in 1 year they'll have 1 million robo taxis on the road. 
Nope. The target was stated as end of next year. And they haven't claimed they have solved level 5 autonomy yet, just that they are on track to have it by end of 2020.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: CCCA on April 26, 2019, 11:07:22 PM
Their claims that they've solved level 5 autonomy are pretty unbelievable and in 1 year they'll have 1 million robo taxis on the road. 
Nope. The target was stated as end of next year. And they haven't claimed they have solved level 5 autonomy yet, just that they are on track to have it by end of 2020.


Okay, sorry, I saw next year as "in one year".  Saying that you'll have level 5, next year, means it has to be mostly solved now. I understand software guys think they can go fast and break things, but seriously, it needs a lot of testing (like months and months) before you can just say "go for it" and leave it up to a car. 


Looked it up and his quote was "If you fast forward a year, maybe a year three months, we'll have over a million robo-taxis on the road."  So basically my original assertion was correct.

Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ChpBstrd on April 27, 2019, 07:50:23 AM
TSLA is done...if they are struggling in the best blockbuster economy of all time imagine what will happen to them in the upcoming slowdown when auto sales will fall off a cliff.  This company is over in my opinion.  In no way am I making judgements on the products itself which I think are very innovative, it's just that it isn't economically viable in a tighter monetary environment (considering it's been barely viable in a cheap money and credit environment), consider TSLA just a big experiment in technological excess which will be the first thing to go offline in a recession.

For $60 plus commission, you could buy a January 15, 2021 put contract that will be worth $1000 in the event of a TSLA bankruptcy that wiped out all equity.

If this scenario played out, a $60k investment would become $1M in less than 2 years.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: FrugalSaver on April 27, 2019, 07:57:10 AM
I’m curious what the Colorado poster is thinking these days
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: FrugalSaver on April 27, 2019, 07:59:19 AM
TSLA is done...if they are struggling in the best blockbuster economy of all time imagine what will happen to them in the upcoming slowdown when auto sales will fall off a cliff.  This company is over in my opinion.  In no way am I making judgements on the products itself which I think are very innovative, it's just that it isn't economically viable in a tighter monetary environment (considering it's been barely viable in a cheap money and credit environment), consider TSLA just a big experiment in technological excess which will be the first thing to go offline in a recession.

For $60 plus commission, you could buy a January 15, 2021 put contract that will be worth $1000 in the event of a TSLA bankruptcy that wiped out all equity.

If this scenario played out, a $60k investment would become $1M in less than 2 years.

I’ve been selling puts every week for many many months now and paying the mortgage with it
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: CCCA on April 27, 2019, 01:00:21 PM
TSLA is done...if they are struggling in the best blockbuster economy of all time imagine what will happen to them in the upcoming slowdown when auto sales will fall off a cliff.  This company is over in my opinion.  In no way am I making judgements on the products itself which I think are very innovative, it's just that it isn't economically viable in a tighter monetary environment (considering it's been barely viable in a cheap money and credit environment), consider TSLA just a big experiment in technological excess which will be the first thing to go offline in a recession.

For $60 plus commission, you could buy a January 15, 2021 put contract that will be worth $1000 in the event of a TSLA bankruptcy that wiped out all equity.

If this scenario played out, a $60k investment would become $1M in less than 2 years.

I’ve been selling puts every week for many many months now and paying the mortgage with it


just to clarify, you are selling puts to later buy back at a lower price (like shorting puts)?  or selling puts that you previously purchased for a gain?

Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: FrugalSaver on April 28, 2019, 10:35:49 AM
TSLA is done...if they are struggling in the best blockbuster economy of all time imagine what will happen to them in the upcoming slowdown when auto sales will fall off a cliff.  This company is over in my opinion.  In no way am I making judgements on the products itself which I think are very innovative, it's just that it isn't economically viable in a tighter monetary environment (considering it's been barely viable in a cheap money and credit environment), consider TSLA just a big experiment in technological excess which will be the first thing to go offline in a recession.

selling naked puts.  For example, I have several contracts that expire on Friday at a $170 strike

For $60 plus commission, you could buy a January 15, 2021 put contract that will be worth $1000 in the event of a TSLA bankruptcy that wiped out all equity.

If this scenario played out, a $60k investment would become $1M in less than 2 years.

I’ve been selling puts every week for many many months now and paying the mortgage with it


just to clarify, you are selling puts to later buy back at a lower price (like shorting puts)?  or selling puts that you previously purchased for a gain?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: CorpRaider on April 29, 2019, 12:31:07 PM
Brothers and sisters, prepare your offerings for The Telsa Tithe (http://thecorpraider.com/2018/05/03/the-telsa-tithe/).

EDIT:  Probably wasting some thunder for planned update of the above (year old) TSLA post but damn that takes me forever.  It is pretty interesting to me that Markel is working with Telsa on the insurance product. Could be laying off a lot of the actual premiums, but still the TSLAQ people on twitter thought it was a complete oddball fantasy that Elon threw out off the cuff and then, basically the next day, they file with regulators in California to roll out a product with a legitimate outfit handling the insurance blocking and tackling.  The move has some echoes (to me) of the historical model of progressive insurance:  superior data resulting in better underwriting as the core competency.  I wonder if Gayner's deputy Saurabh (formerly of google/host of the investors at google youtube series, and poster on COBF) was involved in putting this on Markel's radar.

Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on April 29, 2019, 10:42:38 PM
I’m curious what the Colorado poster is thinking these days


I've been trading the volatility with swing shares. Holding all my core shares. Last bought 10 shares at $234 on Friday. As a long-term investor I'm not worried about one bad quarter. Bears/shorts counting on a demand issue will be disappointed. They've been making that argument for about 5 years. Meanwhile Tesla has yet to spend a dollar on paid advertising.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Jacob F on May 17, 2019, 12:51:31 PM
We're now at half of 420 USD per share, the price that Elon wanted to take the company private at (Tweet on August 7th). Funding secured.
That's less than a year ago. How long until we lose another 210 Dollars / share? Elon now talking about 'hardcore' belt tightening ahead of Tesla to stay profitable/alive.

http://www.thedetroitbureau.com/2019/05/hardcore-belt-tightening-a-must-says-teslas-musk/

This visionary guy who supposedly thinks in decades is managing this company in a paycheck-to-paycheck, quarter-by-quarter style, changing course 180 degrees overnight.

Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Kalergie on May 18, 2019, 04:10:40 AM
Quoting Elon Musk:
"That is why, going forward, all expenses of any kind anywhere in the world, including parts, salary, travel expenses, rent, literally every payment that leaves our bank account must be reviewed, confirmed as critical and the top of every page of outgoing payments signed by our CFO.

I will personally review and sign every 10th page."

This man has lost the plot. Sounds like a bureaucratic nightmare to work at Tesla these days.

And for that reason, I'm out.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Raeon on May 18, 2019, 08:58:00 PM
I'm curious what happens if they do go bankrupt...  some big company would HAVE to pounce on the opportunity to put 3rd party "universal" charging stations in place of the current tesla stations.  If interstate gas stations can get away with highway robbery prices due to convenience, then why not charging stations?  I'm not really sure where I'm going with this in the context of the original thread.  I guess I just figure you could probably walk away without a complete loss should shtf and the company get bought.  Maybe only an 80% loss.
Interesting to watch if nothing else, and they ARE responsible for getting the ball rolling again on electric cars, I suppose we should all be grateful for that much regardless of the outcome.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: CCCA on May 19, 2019, 01:05:32 AM
I'm curious what happens if they do go bankrupt...  some big company would HAVE to pounce on the opportunity to put 3rd party "universal" charging stations in place of the current tesla stations.  If interstate gas stations can get away with highway robbery prices due to convenience, then why not charging stations?  I'm not really sure where I'm going with this in the context of the original thread.  I guess I just figure you could probably walk away without a complete loss should shtf and the company get bought.  Maybe only an 80% loss.
Interesting to watch if nothing else, and they ARE responsible for getting the ball rolling again on electric cars, I suppose we should all be grateful for that much regardless of the outcome.


Superchargers aren't worth that much.  20% of tesla's value is $8 billion.  Tesla's site says there are 12888 superchargers that have been deployed. $8 billion/12888 is $620k per charger.  The DOE estimates the cost of a level 3 charger to be between $4 and $50k depending on the amount of prep work/site upgrades to bring power to a location, and that Tesla doesn't own the land , but merely leases it.  If you are valuing tesla's bankruptcy value on the value of their super charger network, it's probably more like $258 million (12888*20k), which is less than 1% of it's current market cap. 


Their brand may have a bit more value, but that said, it still probably isn't worth anything near to their current market cap.


I've made a bit of money with buying and selling options on Tesla.  My general sense is that the stock price will be less than $200/share fairly soon and is currently in the process of investors re-evaluating their growth story (realizing that stratospheric growth and profitability is getting less and less likely) and bringing the lofty price back down closer to a more fundamental valuation of their stock (double digit stock price).
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: appleshampooid on May 21, 2019, 08:36:53 AM
My general sense is that the stock price will be less than $200/share fairly soon ...
Like right now!
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Car Jack on May 21, 2019, 08:40:21 AM
I just looked at TSLA.  Holy Crap!  Under $200.  So much for Elon's $420 predition.

Morgan Stanley says to expect TSLA to go to $10.  Not down $10....to $10.

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-stock-morgan-stanley-china-tariffs-51558445937?mod=mw_latestnews
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ChpBstrd on May 21, 2019, 09:30:50 AM
I just looked at TSLA.  Holy Crap!  Under $200.  So much for Elon's $420 predition.

Morgan Stanley says to expect TSLA to go to $10.  Not down $10....to $10.

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-stock-morgan-stanley-china-tariffs-51558445937?mod=mw_latestnews

One can buy a put option today for $120 that will go up 316% if Morgan Stanley is correct and TSLA closes at $10 on January 15, 2021. If they go to zero by then, the return would be 1150%.

Someone talk me out of gambling.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on May 23, 2019, 02:27:04 PM
I just looked at TSLA.  Holy Crap!  Under $200.  So much for Elon's $420 predition.

Morgan Stanley says to expect TSLA to go to $10.  Not down $10....to $10.

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-stock-morgan-stanley-china-tariffs-51558445937?mod=mw_latestnews

Actually, Morgan Stanley is a hold and $10 is their worst bear case scenario from one analyst. $391 is their bull. Morgan Stanley also underwrote Tesla's bond a few weeks ago so I take their analysis with a grain of salt.

This whole spiral is a result of 63000 cars delivered in Qtr 1. That's indicative of a demand problem problem and is unsustainable with their Op ex rate. Tesla is saying they had problems delivering to Europe and China in mass for the first time. I'm skeptical of that, but I suppose it's possible logistics is a big issue. I see a lot of bears predicting 75,000 cars delivered in Qtr 2, but Tesla guidance is on 90-100k. If they do 90k delivered, the stock will rebound. Not to over $300/share, imo, but with much stronger support above $200.  The other big issue is the huge decline in S and X sales. Those were big cash cows for Tesla and are more important than a huge scale increase of the 3. If the 90k delivered doesn't have 25k of S and X, 90k cars definitely isn't profitable.

The bright side is those operating expenses have been flat per quarter at $1 billion for over a year. At 90k cars, if they're not profitable, they're definitely cashflow positive. So Qtr 2 is a big deal for the company. Not too worried about cash. They have over $4 billion which at $250 million cash Qtr 1 burn rate a month ( -$910m one time debt payment) would still last a very long time without being cash flow positive. Little risk of near term insolvency, imo. Lasting long enough for the Shanghai factory to be built and start producing behind the tariffs is a big deal.

Edit: I'm long Tesla. I'm eating crow on the near term growth story. I still believe in the company's long term prospects, but I would never recommend someone else either invest or short it. The vicissitudes are unreal.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on May 23, 2019, 03:32:59 PM
So, on the sales volume, there are several mitigating factors:

If you start shipping cars to Europe and China, you're going to have more vehicles... on ships. Since Tesla doesn't count a sale til delivery happens, they're going to have a lot more cars in shipment. That probably accounts for ~10k vehicles.

The Model S/X production line was shut down for awhile, resulting in the new version with the Model 3 style front motor and overall significant performance improvements (overall range, acceleration, higher Supercharger power usable, noticeably better recharging whether Supercharger or not in terms of miles of range recharged per minute.)

Many Tesla enthusiasts were aware of the upcoming refresh, and at least some number held off buying. I certainly would have if I were rich and wanted a Model S or X.

Apparently Panasonic was still unable to supply as many Model 3 cells as Tesla wanted.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on May 23, 2019, 07:43:59 PM
I thought the cells were coming from the gigafactory
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ChpBstrd on May 23, 2019, 08:48:18 PM
Apparently Panasonic was still unable to supply as many Model 3 cells as Tesla wanted.

This factory?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-solar-exclusive/exclusive-teslas-solar-factory-is-exporting-most-of-its-cells-document-idUSKCN1SL1H5 (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-solar-exclusive/exclusive-teslas-solar-factory-is-exporting-most-of-its-cells-document-idUSKCN1SL1H5)
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on May 23, 2019, 09:51:08 PM
I thought the cells were coming from the gigafactory

Model 3 cells are being produced by Panasonic in the Gigafactory. Tesla owns the factory and makes the packs after Panasonic supplies the cells. Another company colocated in the Gigafactory supplies the "cans" to Panasonic for the outer shell of the cells.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Sciurus on May 24, 2019, 07:52:46 AM
This whole spiral is a result of 63000 cars delivered in Qtr 1. That's indicative of a demand problem problem and is unsustainable with their Op ex rate. Tesla is saying they had problems delivering to Europe and China in mass for the first time. I'm skeptical of that, but I suppose it's possible logistics is a big issue. I see a lot of bears predicting 75,000 cars delivered in Qtr 2, but Tesla guidance is on 90-100k. If they do 90k delivered, the stock will rebound. Not to over $300/share, imo, but with much stronger support above $200.  The other big issue is the huge decline in S and X sales. Those were big cash cows for Tesla and are more important than a huge scale increase of the 3. If the 90k delivered doesn't have 25k of S and X, 90k cars definitely isn't profitable.

Tesla also points to 2019 being the first year when the EV credits step down which they say pulled many Q1 sales into Q4 last year.  That being said as bad as Q1 was this year it is still the most sales that Tesla has ever had in a Q1. 
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on May 25, 2019, 07:31:17 PM

Tesla also points to 2019 being the first year when the EV credits step down which they say pulled many Q1 sales into Q4 last year.  That being said as bad as Q1 was this year it is still the most sales that Tesla has ever had in a Q1.

Tax credits get cut in half again on July 1, so that may push more sales forward into Q2, along with the improved Model S & X motors/range/supercharging speed.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Daisyedwards800 on October 24, 2019, 11:54:02 AM
Another profit!
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: talltexan on October 24, 2019, 01:23:15 PM
Yeah, the big Tesla fan in the office (he both drives one and has a long position) was crowing about their latest earnings release today.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on October 25, 2019, 02:33:36 PM
I hope Tesla succeeds and upends transportation. I just am very critical of Elon Musk's ad hoc managerial skills.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on October 26, 2019, 11:02:35 PM
I’m curious what the Colorado poster is thinking these days


I've been trading the volatility with swing shares. Holding all my core shares. Last bought 10 shares at $234 on Friday. As a long-term investor I'm not worried about one bad quarter. Bears/shorts counting on a demand issue will be disappointed. They've been making that argument for about 5 years. Meanwhile Tesla has yet to spend a dollar on paid advertising.

I maintained my core shares all the way down to $180 through to a $328 close yesterday. I'm well into the green with my core position at this SP and started harvesting some gains above $300. Continued to deploy my swing trade shares as best I could over the past few months as well, buying with every over-reaction or negative news story that dipped the SP. I did catch a few falling knives that prevented me from buying as much as I would have liked at sub $200/share prices though. Analyzed all my trades YTD and I'm up about $3,000 on my swing trades, though its more accurate to say I lowered my cost basis by about $6/share, while I wait for the big gains.

I've enjoyed seeing the TSLAQ and short-seller crowd getting hammered the last few days. It will be very interesting how the stock performs on Monday.  Was Friday a one-time price adjustment based on the earnings report or the start of the long awaited short squeeze. Congrats to those who rode out the trying times and the avalanche of FUD.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ChpBstrd on October 27, 2019, 07:14:32 PM
I’m curious what the Colorado poster is thinking these days


I've been trading the volatility with swing shares. Holding all my core shares. Last bought 10 shares at $234 on Friday. As a long-term investor I'm not worried about one bad quarter. Bears/shorts counting on a demand issue will be disappointed. They've been making that argument for about 5 years. Meanwhile Tesla has yet to spend a dollar on paid advertising.

I maintained my core shares all the way down to $180 through to a $328 close yesterday. I'm well into the green with my core position at this SP and started harvesting some gains above $300. Continued to deploy my swing trade shares as best I could over the past few months as well, buying with every over-reaction or negative news story that dipped the SP. I did catch a few falling knives that prevented me from buying as much as I would have liked at sub $200/share prices though. Analyzed all my trades YTD and I'm up about $3,000 on my swing trades, though its more accurate to say I lowered my cost basis by about $6/share, while I wait for the big gains.

I've enjoyed seeing the TSLAQ and short-seller crowd getting hammered the last few days. It will be very interesting how the stock performs on Monday.  Was Friday a one-time price adjustment based on the earnings report or the start of the long awaited short squeeze. Congrats to those who rode out the trying times and the avalanche of FUD.

If one believes in the long term future of the company, what's the point of trading in and out of shares?

We're certainly not talking about a company where one can do fundamentals analysis and declare the shares overpriced at X and underpriced at Y.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on October 27, 2019, 10:31:11 PM
I’m curious what the Colorado poster is thinking these days


I've been trading the volatility with swing shares. Holding all my core shares. Last bought 10 shares at $234 on Friday. As a long-term investor I'm not worried about one bad quarter. Bears/shorts counting on a demand issue will be disappointed. They've been making that argument for about 5 years. Meanwhile Tesla has yet to spend a dollar on paid advertising.

I maintained my core shares all the way down to $180 through to a $328 close yesterday. I'm well into the green with my core position at this SP and started harvesting some gains above $300. Continued to deploy my swing trade shares as best I could over the past few months as well, buying with every over-reaction or negative news story that dipped the SP. I did catch a few falling knives that prevented me from buying as much as I would have liked at sub $200/share prices though. Analyzed all my trades YTD and I'm up about $3,000 on my swing trades, though its more accurate to say I lowered my cost basis by about $6/share, while I wait for the big gains.

I've enjoyed seeing the TSLAQ and short-seller crowd getting hammered the last few days. It will be very interesting how the stock performs on Monday.  Was Friday a one-time price adjustment based on the earnings report or the start of the long awaited short squeeze. Congrats to those who rode out the trying times and the avalanche of FUD.

If one believes in the long term future of the company, what's the point of trading in and out of shares?

We're certainly not talking about a company where one can do fundamentals analysis and declare the shares overpriced at X and underpriced at Y.

The point of trading in and out with the swing shares is to take advantage of the extreme volatility to lower my cost basis and ultimately accumulate some more shares. Strategy comes with a risk of being caught out when/if the stock takes off, but core shares ensure I don't miss the pay day. Even if the stock takes off though, it will establish a new range of volatility to swing trade. Suppose there's also breaking the "boredom" of a straight buy and hold. Core shares are approximately 90% of shares and I swing trade with 10% of shares.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on October 29, 2019, 07:42:56 AM
I've held onto my shares and increased my position throughout the year. I'm much more confident in the stock than I was in May. There's huge growth potential in their upcoming product lines, and their cash balance and margins are increasing. The auto market is clearly being disrupted as EV demand surges globally, and Tesla is burgeoning so many other types of income streams that failure seems very unlikely.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: MoneyQuirk on December 02, 2019, 03:08:26 PM
Until it becomes consistently profitable, I would say no.

Right now betting on Tesla is almost the definition of a gamble. If it doesn't shape up it's finances, it will be bankrupt.

There's a lot of promises that it will shape up financially. So ultimately it boils down to - do you think they will?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: talltexan on December 05, 2019, 11:45:04 AM
I tease the Tesla bull in the office that he ought to trim his risk profile by moving into crypto-
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on December 05, 2019, 10:43:52 PM
Until it becomes consistently profitable, I would say no.

Right now betting on Tesla is almost the definition of a gamble. If it doesn't shape up it's finances, it will be bankrupt.

There's a lot of promises that it will shape up financially. So ultimately it boils down to - do you think they will?

Anyone waiting for consistent profitability will miss the biggest gains. That's why its investing...
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on December 16, 2019, 08:35:39 AM
Tesla shorts getting a bit of a squeeze this morning as stock approaches all time high. But hey, I'm sure bankruptcy is imminent. Ignore the Model 3s rolling off the floor from a China factory that was a dirt field in January.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Pizzabrewer on December 16, 2019, 11:38:27 AM
Elon has, without a doubt, been a brilliant magician.  I was a huge skeptic but don't know if I'd bet against him at this point.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on December 18, 2019, 02:13:01 PM
Tesla closes at ATH today at $393.15. Bankruptcy is imminent.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: talltexan on December 19, 2019, 09:03:30 AM
I have to admit, I'm rather astonished to see it above $400/share. It's gotten within 5% of the $420 line from Musk's bizarre tweet last summer.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on December 20, 2019, 07:18:09 AM
The unusually high short float is getting squeezed at the same time there's general optimism in the company.

1. China factory is producing and delivering cars.
2. The price and range of the Porsche Taycan has highlighted Tesla's powertrain advantage. The story has been that competition is coming, but it seems more like competition hasn't quite figured out how to produce a compelling EV and won't succeed for maybe another year.
3. Balance sheet has been cleaned up throughout the year.
4. The Model Y is ahead of schedule in production.

Q1 2020 is a bit of a wildcard, but the full year 2020 seems very bullish. Very likely the company will be added to the S&P 500.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Bernard on December 24, 2019, 05:47:04 PM
Buying Tesla is genuine speculating. But, boy, do I wish I had bought a few shares when TSLA was below 200, about half a year ago . . . .
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Roland of Gilead on December 24, 2019, 06:25:46 PM
I like Tesla (I like SpaceX better) but it was not a good investment.

I mean it has paid off well, but so has bitcoin.  Neither was what I would consider a good investment though.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: effigy98 on December 30, 2019, 11:11:10 AM
Tesla is so far ahead of all others. Most companies are lead by crusty old people who do not want to change. They are rent seeking and want to milk their 90 year old car companies until they are dry with the same old technology and only change if no other choice. They all say they are working on stuff, but not delivering anything reasonably competitive. They purposely make their EV offerings ugly or too expensive to not compete with their highly profitable crappy ICE cars.

Tesla is the amazon of cars and I wish I invested a little in AMZN in the early 2000s.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: bthewalls on December 31, 2019, 04:57:46 PM
Ok...only read heading and not one post.

Short answer no..

I bought Tesla as a gamble but isn’t any non etf investment a waste in a way?...all eggs one basket with single companies?

Barry
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on December 31, 2019, 07:27:21 PM

I bought Tesla as a gamble but isn’t any non etf investment a waste in a way?...all eggs one basket with single companies?

Barry

If you don't know how to value companies, anything other than an index would be a gamble. Good companies consistently beat indexes. Take Disney for example. Disney has outperformed the SP 500 for decades. It likely will for quite some time. Disney as a company has provided a ton of value and Disney+ will increase the market cap probably 2x over the next few years. That's the value I assigned from my numbers. I've read the Simple Path to Wealth. It's a great book, and it's the best way to invest for most people, but it's not the best way to invest with ownership in a company in mind. To assume no one can beat the index, which JL Collins argues, is not only putting your mind in a box but it's demonstrably false. He's right that not everyone is Warren Buffett but there are millions of millionaires who own pieces of good companies accumulating wealth quite comfortably.

Tesla the company has an execution risk. Its potential future value is insane. I think it's a great piece of my portfolio.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ChpBstrd on January 01, 2020, 09:28:52 AM

I bought Tesla as a gamble but isn’t any non etf investment a waste in a way?...all eggs one basket with single companies?

Barry

If you don't know how to value companies, anything other than an index would be a gamble. Good companies consistently beat indexes. Take Disney for example. Disney has outperformed the SP 500 for decades. It likely will for quite some time. Disney as a company has provided a ton of value and Disney+ will increase the market cap probably 2x over the next few years. That's the value I assigned from my numbers. I've read the Simple Path to Wealth. It's a great book, and it's the best way to invest for most people, but it's not the best way to invest with ownership in a company in mind. To assume no one can beat the index, which JL Collins argues, is not only putting your mind in a box but it's demonstrably false. He's right that not everyone is Warren Buffett but there are millions of millionaires who own pieces of good companies accumulating wealth quite comfortably.

Tesla the company has an execution risk. Its potential future value is insane. I think it's a great piece of my portfolio.

As an internet elder, I recall reading the same rationales for Citigroup, AOL, Yahoo, and more.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on January 01, 2020, 11:02:15 AM

As an internet elder, I recall reading the same rationales for Citigroup, AOL, Yahoo, and more.

As an internet elder, you should also know that many fortunes were made in each of those companies as well. But asset values require regular reevaluation. You do you. I'm not advising any investments. Everyone is free to choose index funds only to match the total market, and free to apparently be emboldened to make judgments about those who don't as if they plucked the "Index is the Answer" fruit from the tree of knowledge when the truth is that it's group think, especially on this forum.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: aspiringnomad on January 03, 2020, 09:04:57 AM
This has been a fun ride. Tesla, along with Apple and Google, are sort of holdovers from my pre-indexing days. When I converted to indexing, I sold a bunch of individual stocks including AMZN :(, but kept AAPL and GOOGL partly to avoid the tax hit. I kept TSLA and bought some more during last year's swoon partly because I find it to be the single most fun publicly traded company to follow on earth. Great investing thesis, I know, but I do also believe there's a nontrivial chance it becomes a trillion dollar company sometime this decade and that upside is impossible for me to ignore.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Roland of Gilead on January 03, 2020, 10:32:03 AM
Nice!  I thought Nokia was going to be a huge company as they were the first mover in cell phones and were dominating the industry.   Didn't turn out like I thought.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on January 03, 2020, 11:03:45 AM
Nice!  I thought Nokia was going to be a huge company as they were the first mover in cell phones and were dominating the industry.   Didn't turn out like I thought.

Yeah, poor old Nissan was first to the mass market with the Leaf, beating the Model S by a couple years or so and stayed ahead of Tesla in the "cumulative EVs shipped" for quite a few years. Falling by the wayside now - one reason being that (like Nokia) they've refused to update the technology fast enough. My goodness, they're still using passive battery pack cooling, which is just terrible for the lifespan (as demonstrated by actual Nissan pack lifespans.) No educated/sensible consumer would buy a Leaf today - maybe get a cheap lease deal, but that's about it.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: aspiringnomad on January 03, 2020, 11:05:25 AM
Nice!  I thought Nokia was going to be a huge company as they were the first mover in cell phones and were dominating the industry.   Didn't turn out like I thought.

Fair point. As you can tell I have a strong Silicon Valley/American West Coast bias. Many of the first movers located there, with access to the best software developers, a move-fast culture, and the ability to gain and sustain a foothold with US consumers seem to be relatively durable. At least in the case of Amazon, Apple, and Tesla, their hyper focus on creating a product or experience that consumers love, as opposed to just accept, seems different than the Nokia's of the world, but I'll concede that there's probably some suvivorship bias in that line of thinking.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DavidAnnArbor on January 03, 2020, 03:43:52 PM
Yes TomTX that's why I bought the Chevrolet Bolt and not the Nissan Leaf.  I was surprised that Mrmoneymustache was touting the Nissan Leaf knowing that the battery pack had a poor chance of lasting long.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Pizzabrewer on January 05, 2020, 05:40:44 PM
No educated/sensible consumer would buy a Leaf today - maybe get a cheap lease deal, but that's about it.

Well I would disagree as I just bought a 2012 Leaf SL.  I think it was a shrewd purchase.  The car has 11 out of 12 bars of battery health remaining, has 36k miles, and is in pristine condition.  The poor resale value of the car was to my advantage:  I got a steal at $5600.  My commute is 3 miles each way and on an average day I drive less than 15 miles.  With a trickle charge overnight it suits my purposes perfectly.

And damn is it fun to drive.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ChpBstrd on January 05, 2020, 07:06:16 PM
No educated/sensible consumer would buy a Leaf today - maybe get a cheap lease deal, but that's about it.

Well I would disagree as I just bought a 2012 Leaf SL.  I think it was a shrewd purchase.  The car has 11 out of 12 bars of battery health remaining, has 36k miles, and is in pristine condition.  The poor resale value of the car was to my advantage:  I got a steal at $5600.  My commute is 3 miles each way and on an average day I drive less than 15 miles.  With a trickle charge overnight it suits my purposes perfectly.

And damn is it fun to drive.

That was a deal.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: bthewalls on January 06, 2020, 04:14:30 PM
Hardly related to the post at all but just to give a laugh, my last car cost £750 and lasted 7 years...I eventually sold it cause my daughters wouldn’t get into it!

Baz
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on January 06, 2020, 10:59:31 PM
It's taking me almost as much will power to not sell at $450 as it took to not sell at $180. Gotta stick to the investment thesis:

1) Is the future of energy and transportation battery electric and renewables?
2) Is Tesla the leader in EVs and battery tech?

I'll hold until the answer to either of those questions points towards no. The competition has yet to produce an EV that meets the price and specs of a 2013 Model S, let alone the 2019 variants. No other car company is building their own battery factory or a network of fast charging stations. There is no competition on the horizon (2 years out at least) and even then it doesn't matter, because a smaller percentage of a bigger pie is still more pie. Elon's goal is to push us towards a sustainable future and forcing other manufacturers to get serious about EVs is part of the plan.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: aspiringnomad on January 06, 2020, 11:43:24 PM
It's taking me almost as much will power to not sell at $450 as it took to not sell at $180. Gotta stick to the investment thesis:

1) Is the future of energy and transportation battery electric and renewables?
2) Is Tesla the leader in EVs and battery tech?

I'll hold until the answer to either of those questions points towards no. The competition has yet to produce an EV that meets the price and specs of a 2013 Model S, let alone the 2019 variants. No other car company is building their own battery factory or a network of fast charging stations. There is no competition on the horizon (2 years out at least) and even then it doesn't matter, because a smaller percentage of a bigger pie is still more pie. Elon's goal is to push us towards a sustainable future and forcing other manufacturers to get serious about EVs is part of the plan.

Your thesis addresses the two keys points and is enough alone IMO to justify holding the stock, but as a little cherry on top Tesla has also managed to design a customized, top-notch autonomous driving chip in-house and unlike other companies pursuing autonomy, it has already racked up billions of fleet miles to train the neural net on edge cases through the company’s Dojo.

While I’m skeptical of Elon’s timeframes for FSD, I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that Lidar is the wrong path given that he’s no stranger to it having personally helped design the Lidar system SpaceX uses to dock the Dragon to the ISS. Meanwhile, the competition is still working on OTA updates to their vehicles. I have no idea how autonomy will play out, but if Tesla does win that race as well, $450 per share will probably look quaint.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on January 07, 2020, 12:44:17 PM
It's taking me almost as much will power to not sell at $450 as it took to not sell at $180. Gotta stick to the investment thesis:

1) Is the future of energy and transportation battery electric and renewables?
2) Is Tesla the leader in EVs and battery tech?

I'll hold until the answer to either of those questions points towards no. The competition has yet to produce an EV that meets the price and specs of a 2013 Model S, let alone the 2019 variants. No other car company is building their own battery factory or a network of fast charging stations. There is no competition on the horizon (2 years out at least) and even then it doesn't matter, because a smaller percentage of a bigger pie is still more pie. Elon's goal is to push us towards a sustainable future and forcing other manufacturers to get serious about EVs is part of the plan.

Your thesis addresses the two keys points and is enough alone IMO to justify holding the stock, but as a little cherry on top Tesla has also managed to design a customized, top-notch autonomous driving chip in-house and unlike other companies pursuing autonomy, it has already racked up billions of fleet miles to train the neural net on edge cases through the company’s Dojo.

While I’m skeptical of Elon’s timeframes for FSD, I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that Lidar is the wrong path given that he’s no stranger to it having personally helped design the Lidar system SpaceX uses to dock the Dragon to the ISS. Meanwhile, the competition is still working on OTA updates to their vehicles. I have no idea how autonomy will play out, but if Tesla does win that race as well, $450 per share will probably look quaint.

Your wording, "cherry on top" is how I view FSD in my investment thesis. I have no doubt Tesla is the leader in this technology. I think having the best driver assist available currently at less than full autonomy is already a clear advantage and value add for any potential buyer. The reason I don't include FSD in my primary thesis is that for Tesla to realize a significant profit from this technology, regulators and governments are going to have to first approve it's use. I believe the stats suggesting the number of accidents and fatalities will be significantly reduced by FSD enabled cars. Here's the issue I see. You can shout from the rooftop the safety statistics and that the thousands of lives will be saved, but there will still be fatal accidents under FSD and many of those accidents will look different than the ones human drivers typically have due to the way the hardware and software "read" the road. Some of these accidents will look downright suicidal on the part of the machine and will be hard to stomach by the families of the deceased. I fear society will not see the forest for the trees. FSD can save nameless thousands each year, but a handful of tragic, high-profile and seemingly easily preventable deaths will drive the public narrative and perhaps force regulators to go against good science.  Wouldn't be the first time.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on January 07, 2020, 12:45:38 PM
On a more positive note, TSLA continues to climb and hit a new intra-day high of 471 a minute ago!
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: aspiringnomad on January 07, 2020, 01:36:44 PM
It's taking me almost as much will power to not sell at $450 as it took to not sell at $180. Gotta stick to the investment thesis:

1) Is the future of energy and transportation battery electric and renewables?
2) Is Tesla the leader in EVs and battery tech?

I'll hold until the answer to either of those questions points towards no. The competition has yet to produce an EV that meets the price and specs of a 2013 Model S, let alone the 2019 variants. No other car company is building their own battery factory or a network of fast charging stations. There is no competition on the horizon (2 years out at least) and even then it doesn't matter, because a smaller percentage of a bigger pie is still more pie. Elon's goal is to push us towards a sustainable future and forcing other manufacturers to get serious about EVs is part of the plan.

Your thesis addresses the two keys points and is enough alone IMO to justify holding the stock, but as a little cherry on top Tesla has also managed to design a customized, top-notch autonomous driving chip in-house and unlike other companies pursuing autonomy, it has already racked up billions of fleet miles to train the neural net on edge cases through the company’s Dojo.

While I’m skeptical of Elon’s timeframes for FSD, I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that Lidar is the wrong path given that he’s no stranger to it having personally helped design the Lidar system SpaceX uses to dock the Dragon to the ISS. Meanwhile, the competition is still working on OTA updates to their vehicles. I have no idea how autonomy will play out, but if Tesla does win that race as well, $450 per share will probably look quaint.

Your wording, "cherry on top" is how I view FSD in my investment thesis. I have no doubt Tesla is the leader in this technology. I think having the best driver assist available currently at less than full autonomy is already a clear advantage and value add for any potential buyer. The reason I don't include FSD in my primary thesis is that for Tesla to realize a significant profit from this technology, regulators and governments are going to have to first approve it's use. I believe the stats suggesting the number of accidents and fatalities will be significantly reduced by FSD enabled cars. Here's the issue I see. You can shout from the rooftop the safety statistics and that the thousands of lives will be saved, but there will still be fatal accidents under FSD and many of those accidents will look different than the ones human drivers typically have due to the way the hardware and software "read" the road. Some of these accidents will look downright suicidal on the part of the machine and will be hard to stomach by the families of the deceased. I fear society will not see the forest for the trees. FSD can save nameless thousands each year, but a handful of tragic, high-profile and seemingly easily preventable deaths will drive the public narrative and perhaps force regulators to go against good science.  Wouldn't be the first time.

That's possible. The counterargument is that there are lots of jurisdictions and lots of regulatory bodies around the world, not to mention many just in the US alone. Some jurisdictions will decide to be early adopters of autonomy if for no other reason than to appear to be an innovative place. If/when the safety benefits are demonstrated with empirical data, pressure will mount on the laggard jurisdictions.

Speaking of which, I actually think certain jurisdictions may require FSD in certain use cases. For example, I imagine New Zealand might want to consider requiring tourists to use FSD when renting a car. It's a place with tons of tourism and relatively high traffic fatalities. Many locals are eager to get tourists out of the driver seat (so to speak) given that they're often unaccustomed to driving on the left side of the road, or on incredibly windy roads, are perhaps unsure of the rules pertaining to roundabouts, or maybe don't speak English (or Maori) so can't read the signage. It would seem relatively easy to push or force the car rental companies to make the switch, and if everyone expects it will save lives, who would fight back to defend the driving rights of tourists?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on January 07, 2020, 01:59:18 PM
It's taking me almost as much will power to not sell at $450 as it took to not sell at $180. Gotta stick to the investment thesis:

1) Is the future of energy and transportation battery electric and renewables?
2) Is Tesla the leader in EVs and battery tech?

I'll hold until the answer to either of those questions points towards no. The competition has yet to produce an EV that meets the price and specs of a 2013 Model S, let alone the 2019 variants. No other car company is building their own battery factory or a network of fast charging stations. There is no competition on the horizon (2 years out at least) and even then it doesn't matter, because a smaller percentage of a bigger pie is still more pie. Elon's goal is to push us towards a sustainable future and forcing other manufacturers to get serious about EVs is part of the plan.

Your thesis addresses the two keys points and is enough alone IMO to justify holding the stock, but as a little cherry on top Tesla has also managed to design a customized, top-notch autonomous driving chip in-house and unlike other companies pursuing autonomy, it has already racked up billions of fleet miles to train the neural net on edge cases through the company’s Dojo.

While I’m skeptical of Elon’s timeframes for FSD, I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that Lidar is the wrong path given that he’s no stranger to it having personally helped design the Lidar system SpaceX uses to dock the Dragon to the ISS. Meanwhile, the competition is still working on OTA updates to their vehicles. I have no idea how autonomy will play out, but if Tesla does win that race as well, $450 per share will probably look quaint.

Your wording, "cherry on top" is how I view FSD in my investment thesis. I have no doubt Tesla is the leader in this technology. I think having the best driver assist available currently at less than full autonomy is already a clear advantage and value add for any potential buyer. The reason I don't include FSD in my primary thesis is that for Tesla to realize a significant profit from this technology, regulators and governments are going to have to first approve it's use. I believe the stats suggesting the number of accidents and fatalities will be significantly reduced by FSD enabled cars. Here's the issue I see. You can shout from the rooftop the safety statistics and that the thousands of lives will be saved, but there will still be fatal accidents under FSD and many of those accidents will look different than the ones human drivers typically have due to the way the hardware and software "read" the road. Some of these accidents will look downright suicidal on the part of the machine and will be hard to stomach by the families of the deceased. I fear society will not see the forest for the trees. FSD can save nameless thousands each year, but a handful of tragic, high-profile and seemingly easily preventable deaths will drive the public narrative and perhaps force regulators to go against good science.  Wouldn't be the first time.

That's possible. The counterargument is that there are lots of jurisdictions and lots of regulatory bodies around the world, not to mention many just in the US alone. Some jurisdictions will decide to be early adopters of autonomy if for no other reason than to appear to be an innovative place. If/when the safety benefits are demonstrated with empirical data, pressure will mount on the laggard jurisdictions.

Speaking of which, I actually think certain jurisdictions may require FSD in certain use cases. For example, I imagine New Zealand might want to consider requiring tourists to use FSD when renting a car. It's a place with tons of tourism and relatively high traffic fatalities. Many locals are eager to get tourists out of the driver seat (so to speak) given that they're often unaccustomed to driving on the left side of the road, or on incredibly windy roads, are perhaps unsure of the rules pertaining to roundabouts, or maybe don't speak English (or Maori) so can't read the signage. It would seem relatively easy to push or force the car rental companies to make the switch, and if everyone expects it will save lives, who would fight back to defend the driving rights of tourists?

Good thoughts, and valid points. I'm sure insurance companies may play a role too at some point (i.e., cheaper rates for FSD enabled vehicles). I guess I'm reasonably optimistic in the long run, but like you said, no way this happens on Elon's timeframe given the perception war that's going to have to be waged and won jurisdiction by jurisdiction (see fight of dealership model).
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on January 08, 2020, 11:03:19 AM
Might be time to close this thread. As the stock prices closes in on $500 (currently $491), I think its safe to say TSLA has turned out to be a good investment for any true long-term investor. I'll continue to hold based on my investment thesis above.

Is Tesla a good investment?  Yes
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: aspiringnomad on January 08, 2020, 12:06:22 PM
Close the thread? Based on one quarter's worth of share movement, albeit quite dramatic? I expect a pullback in the share price soon on any bad news or perhaps just triggered by profit taking. In any event, although I'm bullish long-term, I really do appreciate hearing contrary points of view, especially from the mostly thoughtful and analytical people who make up this forum.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Pizzabrewer on January 08, 2020, 12:16:05 PM
If this crosses $500 today (currently $497) it'll jump another $20 without any friction.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Roland of Gilead on January 08, 2020, 12:33:35 PM
Might be time to close this thread. As the stock prices closes in on $500 (currently $491), I think its safe to say TSLA has turned out to be a good investment for any true long-term investor. I'll continue to hold based on my investment thesis above.

Is Tesla a good investment?  Yes

Well, I mean based on that criteria, bitcoin was/is a good investment.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on January 08, 2020, 01:24:10 PM
Close the thread? Based on one quarter's worth of share movement, albeit quite dramatic? I expect a pullback in the share price soon on any bad news or perhaps just triggered by profit taking. In any event, although I'm bullish long-term, I really do appreciate hearing contrary points of view, especially from the mostly thoughtful and analytical people who make up this forum.

Guess I should have used a smiley face when I posted that as it was meant tongue in cheek mostly. Obviously, ongoing discussion of the company and stock will be fun and productive. My real point is anyone who ever invested in this stock could close their position today and TSLA would have been a good investment regardless of when they entered. Thus, the title question is answered in the affirmative. As all stocks and companies eventually fall, the ongoing question is when might TSLA cease to be a good investment?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on January 08, 2020, 01:29:24 PM
Close the thread? Based on one quarter's worth of share movement, albeit quite dramatic? I expect a pullback in the share price soon on any bad news or perhaps just triggered by profit taking. In any event, although I'm bullish long-term, I really do appreciate hearing contrary points of view, especially from the mostly thoughtful and analytical people who make up this forum.

Guess I should have used a smiley face when I posted that as it was meant tongue in cheek mostly. Obviously, ongoing discussion of the company and stock will be fun and productive. My real point is anyone who ever invested in this stock could close their position today and TSLA would have been a good investment regardless of when they entered. Thus, the title question is answered in the affirmative. As all stocks and companies eventually fall, the ongoing question is when might TSLA cease to be a good investment?

Please stop with the insane bitcoin comparisons. It really shows a depth of understanding. Does bitcoin manufacture products, own physical infrastructure, have employees, own patents, conduct R&D, put out quarterly reports that contain earnings, capex, debt etc., Is bitcoin subject to regulatory oversight from the SEC?

Yeah, gambling on bitcoin is the same as investing in a disruptive, growth-minded manufacturing company with tangible assets.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Davnasty on January 08, 2020, 01:57:37 PM
Close the thread? Based on one quarter's worth of share movement, albeit quite dramatic? I expect a pullback in the share price soon on any bad news or perhaps just triggered by profit taking. In any event, although I'm bullish long-term, I really do appreciate hearing contrary points of view, especially from the mostly thoughtful and analytical people who make up this forum.

Guess I should have used a smiley face when I posted that as it was meant tongue in cheek mostly. Obviously, ongoing discussion of the company and stock will be fun and productive. My real point is anyone who ever invested in this stock could close their position today and TSLA would have been a good investment regardless of when they entered. Thus, the title question is answered in the affirmative. As all stocks and companies eventually fall, the ongoing question is when might TSLA cease to be a good investment?

Please stop with the insane bitcoin comparisons. It really shows a depth of understanding. Does bitcoin manufacture products, own physical infrastructure, have employees, own patents, conduct R&D, put out quarterly reports that contain earnings, capex, debt etc., Is bitcoin subject to regulatory oversight from the SEC?

Yeah, gambling on bitcoin is the same as investing in a disruptive, growth-minded manufacturing company with tangible assets.

No one compared TSLA to bitcoin, only pointed out that the criteria for "good investment" should be more complex than asking if the price went up or not. Since you were being tongue in cheek I'm guessing you would actually agree with that.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on January 08, 2020, 02:20:25 PM
Close the thread? Based on one quarter's worth of share movement, albeit quite dramatic? I expect a pullback in the share price soon on any bad news or perhaps just triggered by profit taking. In any event, although I'm bullish long-term, I really do appreciate hearing contrary points of view, especially from the mostly thoughtful and analytical people who make up this forum.

Guess I should have used a smiley face when I posted that as it was meant tongue in cheek mostly. Obviously, ongoing discussion of the company and stock will be fun and productive. My real point is anyone who ever invested in this stock could close their position today and TSLA would have been a good investment regardless of when they entered. Thus, the title question is answered in the affirmative. As all stocks and companies eventually fall, the ongoing question is when might TSLA cease to be a good investment?

Please stop with the insane bitcoin comparisons. It really shows a depth of understanding. Does bitcoin manufacture products, own physical infrastructure, have employees, own patents, conduct R&D, put out quarterly reports that contain earnings, capex, debt etc., Is bitcoin subject to regulatory oversight from the SEC?

Yeah, gambling on bitcoin is the same as investing in a disruptive, growth-minded manufacturing company with tangible assets.

No one compared TSLA to bitcoin, only pointed out that the criteria for "good investment" should be more complex than asking if the price went up or not. Since you were being tongue in cheek I'm guessing you would actually agree with that.

It was implied that Tesla is no better an investment than bitcoin simply because both went up in value. That of course is absurd for all the same reasons I listed above when comparing the two. I also laid out my TSLA investment thesis above and it has nothing to do with the movement of the stock price. If I cared about the movement of the stock price short term I would have sold at $178 six months ago. People who bring up bitcoin in the context of investment in Tesla are intentionally trying to paint Tesla as a risky gamble, when anyone with a little vision can recognize the change in the wind and a quality product when the see it.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Davnasty on January 08, 2020, 02:28:57 PM
It was implied that Tesla is no better an investment than bitcoin simply because both went up in value.

This was not implied, you're reading something that is not there.

Might be time to close this thread. As the stock prices closes in on $500 (currently $491), I think its safe to say TSLA has turned out to be a good investment for any true long-term investor. I'll continue to hold based on my investment thesis above.

Is Tesla a good investment?  Yes

Well, I mean based on that criteria, bitcoin was/is a good investment.

I bolded the criteria Roland was referencing
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on January 08, 2020, 03:21:18 PM
It was implied that Tesla is no better an investment than bitcoin simply because both went up in value.

This was not implied, you're reading something that is not there.

Might be time to close this thread. As the stock prices closes in on $500 (currently $491), I think its safe to say TSLA has turned out to be a good investment for any true long-term investor. I'll continue to hold based on my investment thesis above.

Is Tesla a good investment?  Yes

Well, I mean based on that criteria, bitcoin was/is a good investment.

I bolded the criteria Roland was referencing

Come on now, Roland brought up bitcoin in a thread dedicated to Tesla. Why else bring up bitcoin if not to imply some correlation with the comment, "Well, I mean based on that criteria, bitcoin was/is a good investment." He didn't say by that criteria any stock that goes up is a good investment or by that criteria Facebook is a good investment. There was no other reason to use bitcoin to make his point other than to put the two together and imply commonality. It's not the first time bitcoin has been used in this thread to try and tar Tesla as highly risky.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: aspiringnomad on January 08, 2020, 03:55:54 PM
the ongoing question is when might TSLA cease to be a good investment?

When the investment thesis no longer holds, I suppose. Of course that will eventually become more of a gray area as the marketplace and competitive landscape shifts. Since I now only buy individual stocks when I have very strong convictions to do so, I'll try to only sell if that's the case as well. I plan to hold indefinitely or at least until 2028 when Elon's compensation plan sunsets.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on January 08, 2020, 04:50:27 PM
No educated/sensible consumer would buy a Leaf today - maybe get a cheap lease deal, but that's about it.

Well I would disagree as I just bought a 2012 Leaf SL.  I think it was a shrewd purchase.  The car has 11 out of 12 bars of battery health remaining, has 36k miles, and is in pristine condition.  The poor resale value of the car was to my advantage:  I got a steal at $5600.  My commute is 3 miles each way and on an average day I drive less than 15 miles.  With a trickle charge overnight it suits my purposes perfectly.

And damn is it fun to drive.

I should have qualified that as a new Leaf.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Davnasty on January 08, 2020, 07:53:54 PM
It was implied that Tesla is no better an investment than bitcoin simply because both went up in value.

This was not implied, you're reading something that is not there.

Might be time to close this thread. As the stock prices closes in on $500 (currently $491), I think its safe to say TSLA has turned out to be a good investment for any true long-term investor. I'll continue to hold based on my investment thesis above.

Is Tesla a good investment?  Yes

Well, I mean based on that criteria, bitcoin was/is a good investment.

I bolded the criteria Roland was referencing

Come on now, Roland brought up bitcoin in a thread dedicated to Tesla. Why else bring up bitcoin if not to imply some correlation with the comment, "Well, I mean based on that criteria, bitcoin was/is a good investment." He didn't say by that criteria any stock that goes up is a good investment or by that criteria Facebook is a good investment. There was no other reason to use bitcoin to make his point other than to put the two together and imply commonality. It's not the first time bitcoin has been used in this thread to try and tar Tesla as highly risky.

Sure there is. If they had said "any stock" or "facebook" their point would have been less clear. Let's try it out:

"Well, I mean based on that criteria, facebook was/is a good investment."

Rather ambiguous, right?

Bitcoin was a good example because it's generally regarded on this forum as an obviously bad investment or perhaps something that doesn't even qualify as an investment. Until you responded I thought it was clear that they were simply suggesting that the criteria of "did the price go up" is inadequate in judging the quality of an investment.

If there was a deeper meaning, hopefully they'll chime in and let us know.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on January 08, 2020, 09:07:04 PM

Sure there is. If they had said "any stock" or "facebook" their point would have been less clear. Let's try it out:

"Well, I mean based on that criteria, facebook was/is a good investment."

Rather ambiguous, right?

Bitcoin was a good example because it's generally regarded on this forum as an obviously bad investment or perhaps something that doesn't even qualify as an investment. Until you responded I thought it was clear that they were simply suggesting that the criteria of "did the price go up" is inadequate in judging the quality of an investment.

If there was a deeper meaning, hopefully they'll chime in and let us know.

I like Tesla (I like SpaceX better) but it was not a good investment.

I mean it has paid off well, but so has bitcoin.  Neither was what I would consider a good investment though.

In this quote, Roland makes clear he thinks Tesla and Bitcoin are bad investments. So now we can move on.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on January 13, 2020, 08:07:58 AM
Just punched through $500 for new ATH.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Telecaster on January 14, 2020, 11:06:41 AM
Come on now, Roland brought up bitcoin in a thread dedicated to Tesla. Why else bring up bitcoin if not to imply some correlation with the comment, "Well, I mean based on that criteria, bitcoin was/is a good investment." He didn't say by that criteria any stock that goes up is a good investment or by that criteria Facebook is a good investment. There was no other reason to use bitcoin to make his point other than to put the two together and imply commonality. It's not the first time bitcoin has been used in this thread to try and tar Tesla as highly risky.

FWIW, I also interpenetrated your comment the same way. 

Regardless, I think Telsa is highly risky.  By any conventional metric, Tesla stock is very, very expensive.  Which is to say there is a lot of future growth already priced into the stock. 

Telsa as a stock reminds me of the dot com bubble.  There were plenty of good tech companies that survived the crash, but didn't see their stock prices recover for many years.  In some cases, it took a decade or more. 
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on January 14, 2020, 11:51:36 AM
Come on now, Roland brought up bitcoin in a thread dedicated to Tesla. Why else bring up bitcoin if not to imply some correlation with the comment, "Well, I mean based on that criteria, bitcoin was/is a good investment." He didn't say by that criteria any stock that goes up is a good investment or by that criteria Facebook is a good investment. There was no other reason to use bitcoin to make his point other than to put the two together and imply commonality. It's not the first time bitcoin has been used in this thread to try and tar Tesla as highly risky.

FWIW, I also interpenetrated your comment the same way. 

Regardless, I think Telsa is highly risky.  By any conventional metric, Tesla stock is very, very expensive.  Which is to say there is a lot of future growth already priced into the stock. 

Telsa as a stock reminds me of the dot com bubble.  There were plenty of good tech companies that survived the crash, but didn't see their stock prices recover for many years.  In some cases, it took a decade or more.

Growth stocks are always valued at future growth or else it wouldn't be investing.

Could Tesla fall short of expectations and future value, sure.

I don't buy the comparison to the dot-com bubble. While part of Tesla's valuation is based on software, they are first and foremost and manufacturing company for transportation, energy storage, and renewable energy products. There is intrinsic value to their manufacturing facilities, patents, inventory, supercharger network, etc. None of which you had with the insane dot-com bubble.

Where is the risk in a company that is selling every battery pack and vehicle it makes at a healthy margin with no competition in sight?

New ATH today, currently $544/share.

Making money while helping us transition to a sustainable energy economy and creating well-paid manufacturing jobs.  Has there ever been a better win-win-win?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Telecaster on January 14, 2020, 02:16:52 PM
Growth stocks are always valued at future growth or else it wouldn't be investing.

Could Tesla fall short of expectations and future value, sure.

I don't buy the comparison to the dot-com bubble. While part of Tesla's valuation is based on software, they are first and foremost and manufacturing company for transportation, energy storage, and renewable energy products. There is intrinsic value to their manufacturing facilities, patents, inventory, supercharger network, etc. None of which you had with the insane dot-com bubble.

Where is the risk in a company that is selling every battery pack and vehicle it makes at a healthy margin with no competition in sight?

New ATH today, currently $544/share.

Making money while helping us transition to a sustainable energy economy and creating well-paid manufacturing jobs.  Has there ever been a better win-win-win?

All companies are valued on the prospect of future earnings, right?  Growth stocks typically enjoy a higher multiple because presumably they will grow faster.   At some point, Telsa will become a mature company, like say, GM or Ford and its growth rate will necessarily slow down.    However, it is already valued like GM and Ford combined, but with none of the profits.   That is one helluva headwind.   

I was careful to say "dot com survivors."   Many perfectly fine companies with solid business models got spun up in the bubble too.   Companies like Apple, Amazon, Ebay, Cisco Systems, Microsoft, etc.   Microsoft, for example, had a dominating lead in operating systems (still does) and other software, and made healthy profits.     Its stock price did not return to the dot com high until about 2015.   Similarly Cisco Systems.   Cisco invented the LAN, its products were ubiquitous, and had billions in revenue prior to the bust.     Cisco stock has still not returned to its dot com high.   

In short, a compelling, exciting company by itself doesn't justify a high stock valuation.   Tesla has a great story, but has yet to record an annual profit.  Companies with great stories and no profits are what defined the dot com bust. 
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on January 14, 2020, 03:09:48 PM
I thought Tesla was risky until recently. Now I think it's as close to a cinch with a growth company as you can get.

1. Strong brand
2. Huge technology moat
3. Charging infrastructure moat
4. Strong US demand (4-11 weeks wait in the US right now)
5. Shanghai factory ramping in the largest auto market in the world
6. Germany factory in the works for 2021
7. Wrights Law applying to EV manufacturing leading to 25% margins by the end of 2020 (*Sam Korus)
8. Budding multiple income streams in insurance, premium internet, apps, skateboard licensing, energy credits
9. Tesla Energy in California where all new houses built have mandated solar or at least source solar.
10. OEM after OEM EV offerings have been less than adequate including future models not yet released. It makes it more likely Tesla holds market share as worldwide EV sales grow.
11. Hinted for battery investor day that they have a million mile battery and a path to produce a TWh of batteries.
...12. The pot of gold at the end of the rainbow: Tesla Network. Its income potential is so high that projections are ridiculous by default. Might as well write off that potential all together and focus on the core business.

2019 was a proving year for the company and they knocked it out of the park by the end.


All companies are valued on the prospect of future earnings, right?  Growth stocks typically enjoy a higher multiple because presumably they will grow faster.   At some point, Telsa will become a mature company, like say, GM or Ford and its growth rate will necessarily slow down.    However, it is already valued like GM and Ford combined, but with none of the profits.   That is one helluva headwind.   

I was careful to say "dot com survivors."   Many perfectly fine companies with solid business models got spun up in the bubble too.   Companies like Apple, Amazon, Ebay, Cisco Systems, Microsoft, etc.   Microsoft, for example, had a dominating lead in operating systems (still does) and other software, and made healthy profits.     Its stock price did not return to the dot com high until about 2015.   Similarly Cisco Systems.   Cisco invented the LAN, its products were ubiquitous, and had billions in revenue prior to the bust.     Cisco stock has still not returned to its dot com high.   

In short, a compelling, exciting company by itself doesn't justify a high stock valuation.   Tesla has a great story, but has yet to record an annual profit.  Companies with great stories and no profits are what defined the dot com bust. 


Tesla is riding a global EV demand curve up and a manufacturing cost curve down in a much more capital intensive industry than any dot com company. That creates moat. Cisco had a $300 billion market cap on $12 billion in revenue and $2 billion in profits in 2000 or 161x on earnings. I don't think just earnings defined that bubble. It's now a $200 billion market cap with $50 billion in revenue and $11 billion in earnings. Tesla has a path to $75 billion in revenue in 2022 with 25% margins just in their EV sales. Let's say 20% net with an 18x multiple (like Cisco) would be $270 billion market cap in 2022.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: aspiringnomad on January 14, 2020, 03:53:12 PM
Companies with great stories and no profitspath to profitability are what defined the dot com bust.

FTFY. Stock prices should reflect the present value of expected future cash flows. If the market were concerned primarily with past profits, GE would still be the most valuable company in the world.

In my opinion, the dot com bubble is not instructive here, other than maybe AMZN dropping from $86 to $10 in the widespread panic, and the importance of keeping a long-term perspective. Tesla will continue to build its moats, reinvesting cash flow rather than booking maximum profit as it sees fit to do so. As a long-term investor, I still don't care about profits right now. I care about them building for the future. Speaking of moats, I'd add Musk himself as one. Setting aside the genius it takes to start a rocket company that lands boosters from scratch, his access to cutting edge technology via that rocket company can also be an asset to Tesla and one that other car companies can't really replicate. An example is Starship's cold-rolled stainless steel body inspiring the Cybertruck's exoskeleton.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ChpBstrd on January 14, 2020, 09:53:01 PM
Companies with great stories and no profitspath to profitability are what defined the dot com bust.

FTFY. Stock prices should reflect the present value of expected future cash flows. If the market were concerned primarily with past profits, GE would still be the most valuable company in the world.


I think what @Telecaster was saying is that it doesn't matter if a company has a path to profitability and spectacular growth, like Cisco did in 2000, if you buy it at a PE ratio so high that even if things go spectacularly well you'll lose, like investors in Cisco did.

I.e. As investors, we need our own path to profitability!
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: aspiringnomad on January 14, 2020, 10:29:23 PM
Companies with great stories and no profitspath to profitability are what defined the dot com bust.

FTFY. Stock prices should reflect the present value of expected future cash flows. If the market were concerned primarily with past profits, GE would still be the most valuable company in the world.


I think what @Telecaster was saying is that it doesn't matter if a company has a path to profitability and spectacular growth, like Cisco did in 2000, if you buy it at a PE ratio so high that even if things go spectacularly well you'll lose, like investors in Cisco did.

I.e. As investors, we need our own path to profitability!

Ha, I think I remember that Cisco was briefly the world's largest company by market cap. If that were the case here and now for Tesla I would have to sell and wait for the correction. But I'm far less concerned about Tesla having a higher market cap than the combined value of GE and Ford, two competitors that at this point are mostly just squeezing profits out of their legacy factories producing legacy technology. IMO, it's a far cry from thinking that a router maker would take over the world, but sure, I agree that Tesla will have to navigate plenty of execution risk to make good on its current valuation, let alone any further appreciation.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Telecaster on January 15, 2020, 12:02:11 PM
I think what @Telecaster was saying is that it doesn't matter if a company has a path to profitability and spectacular growth, like Cisco did in 2000, if you buy it at a PE ratio so high that even if things go spectacularly well you'll lose, like investors in Cisco did.

I.e. As investors, we need our own path to profitability!

Just so.  It is entirely possible for a great company to be a lousy investment.  The final returns are dependent upon the initial price. 

Let's do a thought experiment.  Let's assume that in 20 years TSLA will be a mature, profitable company that is a leader in its industry.  Similar to say, Microsoft.   Microsoft has a P/E of 30.  Great company.  Global leader, makes tons of money, just like we're hoping for TSLA.   Now, lets calculate how fast earnings per share need to grow over the next 20 years for TSLA to get to a P/E of 30.   I'll leave that exercise for the reader (it is simple enough to do, but make your own assumptions and see for yourself).   Suffice to say, earnings per share would have to grow at almost a literally unbelievable rate for 20 years, just to justify today's stock price. 
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on January 15, 2020, 03:05:17 PM
Just so.  It is entirely possible for a great company to be a lousy investment.  The final returns are dependent upon the initial price. 

Let's do a thought experiment.  Let's assume that in 20 years TSLA will be a mature, profitable company that is a leader in its industry.  Similar to say, Microsoft.   Microsoft has a P/E of 30.  Great company.  Global leader, makes tons of money, just like we're hoping for TSLA.   Now, lets calculate how fast earnings per share need to grow over the next 20 years for TSLA to get to a P/E of 30.   I'll leave that exercise for the reader (it is simple enough to do, but make your own assumptions and see for yourself).   Suffice to say, earnings per share would have to grow at almost a literally unbelievable rate for 20 years, just to justify today's stock price.

$17.20 EPS or $3.2 billion in earnings. PE is not a good metric. It varies wildly even among companies in the same industry. Look at Amazon's. Regardless, I think it'll take way less than 20 years to achieve that. I wrote a path to above that in 2022.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: aspiringnomad on January 15, 2020, 07:46:14 PM
I think what @Telecaster was saying is that it doesn't matter if a company has a path to profitability and spectacular growth, like Cisco did in 2000, if you buy it at a PE ratio so high that even if things go spectacularly well you'll lose, like investors in Cisco did.

I.e. As investors, we need our own path to profitability!

Just so.  It is entirely possible for a great company to be a lousy investment.  The final returns are dependent upon the initial price. 

Let's do a thought experiment.  Let's assume that in 20 years TSLA will be a mature, profitable company that is a leader in its industry.  Similar to say, Microsoft.   Microsoft has a P/E of 30.  Great company.  Global leader, makes tons of money, just like we're hoping for TSLA.   Now, lets calculate how fast earnings per share need to grow over the next 20 years for TSLA to get to a P/E of 30.   I'll leave that exercise for the reader (it is simple enough to do, but make your own assumptions and see for yourself).   Suffice to say, earnings per share would have to grow at almost a literally unbelievable rate for 20 years, just to justify today's stock price.

Yeah, I suppose it's different for me since I first invested in 2013. I'm up a significant amount including the additional shares I bought last year. It doesn't make sense for me to sell for tax purposes, and as I said, this is probably the most fun company to follow in my lifetime (maybe in the history of companies?) and owning a tiny slice of it gives me a decent excuse to follow it daily.

If you are interested in a detailed valuation model, ARK Invest posted theirs publicly to GitHub during last year's stock swoon. They're notable bulls, and I don't think their bull case at $6k/share has any shot in hell of coming to fruition by 2023. It's largely based on the fleet of robotaxis panning out starting in 2021, which I am...uh...not banking on. On the other hand, it seems very likely to me that Tesla will overshoot their bear case which values the company at $597/share in 2023 (certainly not a great CAGR if you're buying in now, but not the bankwuptcy! the shorts constantly claim is imminent). The bear case includes no revenue from autonomy and assumes Tesla's market share of EV sales slips to just 6%, in addition to other overly conservative assumptions. Strangely, neither valuation model seems to include Tesla's energy generation and storage business which Musk has said could eventually rival automotive in size.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: theoverlook on January 16, 2020, 02:35:29 PM
   Suffice to say, earnings per share would have to grow at almost a literally unbelievable rate for 20 years, just to justify today's stock price.
Of course the growth rate would sound unbelievable, because going from zero to any positive value leads to unbelievable sounding growth rates. But they sold almost a half a million cars last year at what $50k - $70k average cost? $35bn in revenue doesn't take much of a cost cutting to result in large net profits. $3bn in profits doesn't seem even unlikely in the next few years.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Kroaler on January 19, 2020, 12:14:26 PM
I didn't read all the comments - But I'm pretty sure I'll end up regretting not taking the Tesla gigafactory job I was offered with a 40k Tesla stock equity in 2018.

Seems it's up pretty good even from that short time ago.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: aspiringnomad on January 19, 2020, 11:36:13 PM
My 68-year-old dad just ordered a Model Y and is so excited about it he emailed everyone in the family the order specs. I don't remember him so much as telling anyone about a prior car purchase. Ipso facto, good investment :)
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on January 22, 2020, 06:24:26 AM
I watched this Elon Musk interview yesterday. Most interesting from an investment standpoint was confirmation that the acquisition of Maxwell Technologies was very significant to battery advancement including dry electrode manufacturing and increased energy density. Also the advancement in batteries makes ultracapacitors completely unnecessary. He wouldn't say much because they're going to announce at Battery and Powertrain Investor Day in a "few months." Any significant advancement increases their competitive advantages in autos and energy storage.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NxmO_QuD4Do (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NxmO_QuD4Do)
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DarkandStormy on January 22, 2020, 01:00:04 PM
No justification for this stock price.  An unprofitable company that's only "growing" because they're trying to expand geographically.  U.S. sales are slowing down.  Their Q4 18 production rate essentially matched FY19 - meaning they didn't grow in '19 (remember, '18 came with the caveats of "production hell" and "look at our Q4 production for our true production rate, yada yada).

Their market cap topped $100bn, passing VOW as the 2nd highest market cap for an automaker.  VOW delivered 10.8m vehicles last year.  TSLA delivered 367k.  This valuation is insane.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on January 22, 2020, 03:55:05 PM
No justification for this stock price.  An unprofitable company that's only "growing" because they're trying to expand geographically.  U.S. sales are slowing down.  Their Q4 18 production rate essentially matched FY19 - meaning they didn't grow in '19 (remember, '18 came with the caveats of "production hell" and "look at our Q4 production for our true production rate, yada yada).

Your analysis seems pretty bizarre. Tesla produced about 50% more cars in 2019 than they did in 2018. Virtually all of which were produced in Fremont. This is in the ballpark of their long-term average growth rate, starting in 2012 with the launch of the Model S.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DarkandStormy on January 22, 2020, 05:08:41 PM
No justification for this stock price.  An unprofitable company that's only "growing" because they're trying to expand geographically.  U.S. sales are slowing down.  Their Q4 18 production rate essentially matched FY19 - meaning they didn't grow in '19 (remember, '18 came with the caveats of "production hell" and "look at our Q4 production for our true production rate, yada yada).

Your analysis seems pretty bizarre. Tesla produced about 50% more cars in 2019 than they did in 2018. Virtually all of which were produced in Fremont. This is in the ballpark of their long-term average growth rate, starting in 2012 with the launch of the Model S.

They produced close to 90k vehicles in Q42018. Musk said to specifically look at Q4 because of production issues plauging them in '18. Annualized, that's basically what they produced in 2019.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on January 22, 2020, 05:26:20 PM
No justification for this stock price.  An unprofitable company that's only "growing" because they're trying to expand geographically.  U.S. sales are slowing down.  Their Q4 18 production rate essentially matched FY19 - meaning they didn't grow in '19 (remember, '18 came with the caveats of "production hell" and "look at our Q4 production for our true production rate, yada yada).

Your analysis seems pretty bizarre. Tesla produced about 50% more cars in 2019 than they did in 2018. Virtually all of which were produced in Fremont. This is in the ballpark of their long-term average growth rate, starting in 2012 with the launch of the Model S.

They produced close to 90k vehicles in Q42018. Musk said to specifically look at Q4 because of production issues plauging them in '18. Annualized, that's basically what they produced in 2019.

85,555 is "close to" 90k? That's the actual number produced in 2018Q4. 85,555. Not 90k.  If it were 89,xxx and you said "close to 90k" - sure.

If you want to do a Q on Q comparison, it's 85,555 -> 104,891, which is a 23% increase.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DarkandStormy on January 22, 2020, 08:17:18 PM
No justification for this stock price.  An unprofitable company that's only "growing" because they're trying to expand geographically.  U.S. sales are slowing down.  Their Q4 18 production rate essentially matched FY19 - meaning they didn't grow in '19 (remember, '18 came with the caveats of "production hell" and "look at our Q4 production for our true production rate, yada yada).

Your analysis seems pretty bizarre. Tesla produced about 50% more cars in 2019 than they did in 2018. Virtually all of which were produced in Fremont. This is in the ballpark of their long-term average growth rate, starting in 2012 with the launch of the Model S.

They produced close to 90k vehicles in Q42018. Musk said to specifically look at Q4 because of production issues plauging them in '18. Annualized, that's basically what they produced in 2019.

85,555 is "close to" 90k? That's the actual number produced in 2018Q4. 85,555. Not 90k.  If it were 89,xxx and you said "close to 90k" - sure.

If you want to do a Q on Q comparison, it's 85,555 -> 104,891, which is a 23% increase.

Very glad you're having a hard time reading.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: FrugalSaver on January 22, 2020, 08:56:15 PM
No justification for this stock price.  An unprofitable company that's only "growing" because they're trying to expand geographically.  U.S. sales are slowing down.  Their Q4 18 production rate essentially matched FY19 - meaning they didn't grow in '19 (remember, '18 came with the caveats of "production hell" and "look at our Q4 production for our true production rate, yada yada).

Their market cap topped $100bn, passing VOW as the 2nd highest market cap for an automaker.  VOW delivered 10.8m vehicles last year.  TSLA delivered 367k.  This valuation is insane.

Somtrue. But thebtechnology?  Is it a car company or a technology company?

For a decade I looked at Amazon and said it made no sense what it was valued at and then it went to $1 trillion.

That said, not suggesting this in any way has that potential but I agree. Way overpriced here. Don’t know why anyone would commit new money here at $570 / share
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on January 23, 2020, 10:16:15 AM

[malicious taunting]

We can now see your motivations pretty well.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on January 23, 2020, 11:10:21 AM
No justification for this stock price.  An unprofitable company that's only "growing" because they're trying to expand geographically.  U.S. sales are slowing down.  Their Q4 18 production rate essentially matched FY19 - meaning they didn't grow in '19 (remember, '18 came with the caveats of "production hell" and "look at our Q4 production for our true production rate, yada yada).

Your analysis seems pretty bizarre. Tesla produced about 50% more cars in 2019 than they did in 2018. Virtually all of which were produced in Fremont. This is in the ballpark of their long-term average growth rate, starting in 2012 with the launch of the Model S.


They produced close to 90k vehicles in Q42018. Musk said to specifically look at Q4 because of production issues plauging them in '18. Annualized, that's basically what they produced in 2019.

Q4 2018 was a production hell specifically relating to the Model 3. In Q4 2018, they produced 61,394 Model 3's at breakneck pace to meet the sunset of the full federal tax credit. It wasn't designed to hold that rate at that time. Tesla specifically wrote in the Q4 2018 letter, they expect to have an annualized runrate of 7,000 Model 3s/week from Fremont by the end of 2019. In Q4 2019, they produced 86,958 Model 3s which is right in line with their guidance from January 2019.

Apparently, I'm also having a hard time reading.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DarkandStormy on January 24, 2020, 06:26:00 AM
No justification for this stock price.  An unprofitable company that's only "growing" because they're trying to expand geographically.  U.S. sales are slowing down.  Their Q4 18 production rate essentially matched FY19 - meaning they didn't grow in '19 (remember, '18 came with the caveats of "production hell" and "look at our Q4 production for our true production rate, yada yada).

Your analysis seems pretty bizarre. Tesla produced about 50% more cars in 2019 than they did in 2018. Virtually all of which were produced in Fremont. This is in the ballpark of their long-term average growth rate, starting in 2012 with the launch of the Model S.


They produced close to 90k vehicles in Q42018. Musk said to specifically look at Q4 because of production issues plauging them in '18. Annualized, that's basically what they produced in 2019.

Q4 2018 was a production hell specifically relating to the Model 3. In Q4 2018, they produced 61,394 Model 3's at breakneck pace to meet the sunset of the full federal tax credit. It wasn't designed to hold that rate at that time. Tesla specifically wrote in the Q4 2018 letter, they expect to have an annualized runrate of 7,000 Model 3s/week from Fremont by the end of 2019. In Q4 2019, they produced 86,958 Model 3s which is right in line with their guidance from January 2019.

Apparently, I'm also having a hard time reading.

Thought I recalled them claiming 10k per week? Then again, with Tesla, their targets are constantly moving/changing.

Look, they've obviously cornered the EV market. They're at like 80% of the BEV market in the US.

The question is - and it's one Catherine Wood / ARK seem to avoid - is will they actually grow in terms of market share of the overall auto market. EVs as a whole have flatlined around 2% of all auto sales worldwide. Tesla, globally, makes up about 17% of that 2%.  If they can't convert more ICE owners over, their growth model is sunk.

I've got a friend who is in the Musk/Tesla cult, full on. His reasoning is that Tesla will just continue to double output every two years. That's simply something we haven't seen with them beyond getting through "production hell" with Model 3. And they're still building them in a tent lmao.  If the answer long term was just popping up tents for your assembly lines, every automaker would do it. What happened to the automated production (read: robots) Musk kept hyping 2-3 years ago?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Retire-Canada on January 24, 2020, 06:40:33 AM
If they can't convert more ICE owners over, their growth model is sunk.

I don't own Tesla beyond what's in VTI. Every person I know and myself is planning to buy an EV after our current ICE vehicles are used up. I have no specific plans, but if Tesla puts out a bullet proof cyber van with good range and Robo Cop looks at reasonable price point I won't be shocked if I bought one. They are the only EV option I am really aware of and I know they'll have been at the game longer than the other major players so I'll definitely give them a good shot at getting my money.

I'm not a Tesla fanboi so if Ford puts a better EV van product or offers the same product at a significantly better price I have no loyalty to Tesla.

I plan to drove my ICE vehicle another 10-15 years as do a bunch of people I know so there is a big wave of new EV owners coming, but it'll take a moment to build.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DarkandStormy on January 24, 2020, 07:03:13 AM
Anecdotes aren't data.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Davnasty on January 24, 2020, 07:36:58 AM
Anecdotes aren't data.

And do you have data which directly disputes Retire-Canada's prediction?

Sometimes in the absence of data the next best thing is a combination of anecdotes and a plausible theory.

Even without the anecdotes, I think it would be reasonable to expect many people who currently own ICE vehicles to wait until they've used them up, so to speak, before they buy into the electric market.

Personally, I would like an electric vehicle in the future and I don't have one now, so there's another anecdote.

In any case, I have no idea if Tesla's current valuation makes sense, but I do predict electric vehicle ownership to grow significantly over the next 10 years.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: aspiringnomad on January 24, 2020, 07:50:14 AM
And they're still building them in a tent lmao.  If the answer long term was just popping up tents for your assembly lines, every automaker would do it.

Detractors have this weird obsession with the tent. What's wrong with the tent? It's a robust one and car build quality has not been an issue over the past year. SpaceX is also building parts of Starship in a tent. Who gives a shit? To me, it was a clever way for Tesla to address constraints and I'm guessing the faster-than-anticipated tooling for the Model Y means they still need the line in the tent to try to keep up with demand for the Model 3. For shorts, and I know you're not one, it's a pretty dumb way to dismiss the company's technological know-how.

What happened to the automated production (read: robots) Musk kept hyping 2-3 years ago?

For more advanced automation, check out the videos they put out of the China factory, which they built, tooled, and got up and running in less than a year. Does that sound like the tent is really an issue that should reflect poorly on their ability to build advanced production lines? Musk has admitted that the tech is not there yet for complete automation, but I'm wagering Tesla is still far ahead of the traditional OEMs in getting to that point. Check out their progress on the wiring harness, for example.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on January 24, 2020, 08:21:30 AM
Thought I recalled them claiming 10k per week? Then again, with Tesla, their targets are constantly moving/changing.

Look, they've obviously cornered the EV market. They're at like 80% of the BEV market in the US.

The question is - and it's one Catherine Wood / ARK seem to avoid - is will they actually grow in terms of market share of the overall auto market. EVs as a whole have flatlined around 2% of all auto sales worldwide. Tesla, globally, makes up about 17% of that 2%.  If they can't convert more ICE owners over, their growth model is sunk.

I've got a friend who is in the Musk/Tesla cult, full on. His reasoning is that Tesla will just continue to double output every two years. That's simply something we haven't seen with them beyond getting through "production hell" with Model 3. And they're still building them in a tent lmao.  If the answer long term was just popping up tents for your assembly lines, every automaker would do it. What happened to the automated production (read: robots) Musk kept hyping 2-3 years ago?

Elon Musk gives high targets. Obviously the comments of the CEO are relevant, but try reading the company's actual filings and not the headlines if you want to discuss it on investment terms. And Tesla admitted the robots were a bottleneck in the Model 3 production line and they had to retool. That was one of their biggest problems to scaling the Model 3 and why it took so long. If you're not current with facts, how can you make determination on the future potential of the company? I have an intuition that Uber is a bad investment so I leave it alone, but I haven't researched it enough to argue why it's a bad investment. If I were a short trader and not an investor, it would make sense to go do that. You seem to have followed Tesla to some extent, but you've been incorrect about production levels and context.

EV software, range, and reliability are only going to improve as they scale. Look at the state of the EVs 5 years ago. Do you honestly believe in 5 years from now, they won't be even more competitive to ICE cars than they are today? Tesla just opened a factory in the largest auto market in the world. My wild guess is market share will increase.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on January 24, 2020, 09:44:13 AM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-24/volkswagen-ceo-confident-he-can-catch-tesla-in-electric-car-race (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-24/volkswagen-ceo-confident-he-can-catch-tesla-in-electric-car-race)

VW clearly sees the writing on the wall. If EV sales were projected to stay at 2% worldwide market share, there'd no need to invest $66 billion to capture a portion of that. Even starting to build battery manufacturing plants totaling 150 GWh of capacity by 2025. Mercedes Benz cut their projected ECQ output by half yesterday because of a battery shortage from LG Chem. Battery supply is a major barrier to entry in the EV space because traditional OEMs haven't built the infrastructure for them nor have their own cell chemistry or pack designs.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: robartsd on January 24, 2020, 11:39:00 AM
Speaking of batteries, one possible problem for Tesla is if long range BEV turn out not to be the best choice for the masses:
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/i-bought-a-used-chevy-volt-and-you-probably-should-too!/ (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/i-bought-a-used-chevy-volt-and-you-probably-should-too!/)

Of course there range extended hybrid electric vehicles aren't yet nearly as well developed as Tesla's long range BEVs currently are.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: aspiringnomad on January 24, 2020, 01:14:25 PM
Speaking of production, I'm thinking that sometime in the next few months Tesla will announce a deal to place another gigafactory somewhere in the Southeastern part of the US, most likely in North Carolina, that will focus on producing the Cybertruck, the Semi, and the Model Y.

I'll further speculate that this is what Florida Man was talking about in his mostly nonsensical comments about Musk/Tesla the other day. I'm guessing he's not involved in the negotiations but has been clued into them, and since NC is a potential battleground state, he's getting ready to claim credit for an announcement. For the record, this is all wild speculation, a bit like my initial bet on Tesla :)
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on January 25, 2020, 09:47:28 AM
I've got a friend who is in the Musk/Tesla cult, full on. His reasoning is that Tesla will just continue to double output every two years. That's simply something we haven't seen with them beyond getting through "production hell" with Model 3. And they're still building them in a tent lmao.

Lets go back in the wayback machine to 2013. Tesla produced/sold ~22,400 vehicles. Lets double that: 44,800 vehicles.

Real 2015 production: 51,095.

Well darn. That's way higher than your friend predicted. Lets try another and double it to 102,200

Real 2017 production:  101,027.

Totally failed that, Fell short of doubling by like 2%.  Lets double again to 202,000

Real 2019 production: 365,094.

Well, shoot. That's more than tripling in 2 years. Your friend is totally lowballing if you look at the average increase every 2 years.

Maybe it will look better if we go back further! How about 2011?

Real 2011 production: ~1000.

Well, shoot. That went up ~22x in 2 years to 2013.

So, in short - your friend is actually right, yet again your FUD is shown to be false. On average, Tesla is doubling production (if not more) every 2 years. 

Going forward, they just built an entire factory from mud field to cars coming off the line in less than a year, and have started on their 3rd major car production factory in Europe. Plus whatever they do in the USA this year for Y, Semi and Roadster.

You've conclusively proven you have an axe to grind and are just flinging out bad data. What's your motivation here?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ChpBstrd on January 26, 2020, 07:53:13 AM
How much less would Tesla be worth the day after Elon Musk dropped dead from overwork, or perhaps announced he wanted to shift focus on his rocket business so that he could walk on the moon within his lifetime?

For most corporations, the answer would be not much less. Is that the case for TLSA?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on January 26, 2020, 10:38:13 AM
How much less would Tesla be worth the day after Elon Musk dropped dead from overwork, or perhaps announced he wanted to shift focus on his rocket business so that he could walk on the moon within his lifetime?

For most corporations, the answer would be not much less. Is that the case for TLSA?

Elon didn't want to be CEO of Tesla, but was forced into it eventually when they uncovered that Eberhard was blatantly lying to the board and investors about material items, and ordering other employees to lie to the board and investors.

He could drop dead, sure. I doubt he's giving up Tesla.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on January 26, 2020, 01:51:01 PM
There would definitely be a short term overreaction. I think the technology has reached an escape velocity and their competitive advantage is very difficult to catch up to. So long term, I don't see a big valuation difference. If he had died before the business model had matured, it would have killed the company tho.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DarkandStormy on January 27, 2020, 08:24:57 AM
I've got a friend who is in the Musk/Tesla cult, full on. His reasoning is that Tesla will just continue to double output every two years. That's simply something we haven't seen with them beyond getting through "production hell" with Model 3. And they're still building them in a tent lmao.
You've conclusively proven you have an axe to grind and are just flinging out bad data. What's your motivation here?

They haven't been profitable in any year, but ok.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: theoverlook on January 27, 2020, 08:55:08 AM
I've got a friend who is in the Musk/Tesla cult, full on. His reasoning is that Tesla will just continue to double output every two years. That's simply something we haven't seen with them beyond getting through "production hell" with Model 3. And they're still building them in a tent lmao.
You've conclusively proven you have an axe to grind and are just flinging out bad data. What's your motivation here?

They haven't been profitable in any year, but ok.
And that, my friends, is called "moving the goalposts."
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DarkandStormy on January 27, 2020, 11:53:44 AM
I've got a friend who is in the Musk/Tesla cult, full on. His reasoning is that Tesla will just continue to double output every two years. That's simply something we haven't seen with them beyond getting through "production hell" with Model 3. And they're still building them in a tent lmao.
You've conclusively proven you have an axe to grind and are just flinging out bad data. What's your motivation here?

They haven't been profitable in any year, but ok.
And that, my friends, is called "moving the goalposts."

If you say so.  Sorry I didn't type up a full dissertation on why "doubling output every two years" isn't sustainable.  Companies can achieve a lot of great things if they just don't care about making an income for their investors.  This is why Tesla is a cult stock.

Look, I'll be happy to be wrong about this.  I'll be happy if they can hit 10m global output by 2030 or whatever the metric is.  ICE vehicles are relics and EVs are the future.  I just don't think Tesla is a "good investment" (title of this topic) as I don't believe any singular company is a "good investment" for one's portfolio - too risky to have that much in one company.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: waltworks on January 27, 2020, 04:25:39 PM
If you say so.  Sorry I didn't type up a full dissertation on why "doubling output every two years" isn't sustainable.  Companies can achieve a lot of great things if they just don't care about making an income for their investors.  This is why Tesla is a cult stock.

You know, I don't have a dog in this fight. Outside of VTSAX holding some amount I'm too lazy to look up, I don't own any Tesla stock. I don't plan to own any. I barely own a car, and I have no plans to own another one in the near future, unless someone gives me a Tesla and I inexplicably don't immediately sell it. I don't give a crap about Tesla either way.

But when you respond to someone pointing out that, in fact, something you mocked (Tesla production doubling every couple of years) is TRUE by moving on to another critique, then it's hard to take you seriously.

It appears you have plenty of time to respond to this thread, too, so don't claim that you're being somehow misunderstood because of your brevity.

You could easily have said something like "wow, if they can keep doubling production that will be amazing - thanks for pointing that out. I was wrong. They still need to make consistent profits, though."  That way you sound like a reasonable person, not just someone who dislikes Tesla because other people like it.

-W
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on January 27, 2020, 05:37:52 PM
I've got a friend who is in the Musk/Tesla cult, full on. His reasoning is that Tesla will just continue to double output every two years. That's simply something we haven't seen with them beyond getting through "production hell" with Model 3. And they're still building them in a tent lmao.
You've conclusively proven you have an axe to grind and are just flinging out bad data. What's your motivation here?

They haven't been profitable in any year, but ok.

Lets see, you were proven wrong on the revenue claims, then started yammering about your friend being ridiculous for saying Tesla doubled production every two years, got eviscerated thoroughly on that one...

And now another goalpost shift. One might get the impression you have an axe to grind here. Why is that?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: aspiringnomad on January 27, 2020, 06:43:19 PM
How much less would Tesla be worth the day after Elon Musk dropped dead from overwork, or perhaps announced he wanted to shift focus on his rocket business so that he could walk on the moon within his lifetime?

For most corporations, the answer would be not much less. Is that the case for TLSA?

Elon didn't want to be CEO of Tesla, but was forced into it eventually when they uncovered that Eberhard was blatantly lying to the board and investors about material items, and ordering other employees to lie to the board and investors.

He could drop dead, sure. I doubt he's giving up Tesla.

I doubt he'll leave before his comp plan sunsets in 2028 or until Tesla hits every target in that plan by becoming a $650 billion company, whichever comes sooner. If the stock price stays about where it is for six months, the first of the 12 tranches will vest. Even if it looks linearly unlikely that he'll hit some of the more ambitious targets, I think he'll stick around in case those tranches vest from some nonlinear event, like Tesla being the first to FSD or developing a battery breakthrough that renders ICE vehicles obsolete.

I think he cares a lot about money to the extent that it's an enabler of his ambition to make us a multiplanetary species. It's a strange ambition, but it's also pretty cool, and hopefully it turns out to be lucrative for those of riding the coattails indirectly via TSLA.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on January 28, 2020, 06:35:07 PM
Good point on the comp plan.

I'll note that we're getting close on the first milestone for payment - market cap of $100B (trailing 6 month and 30 day average) and annual revenue of $20B or EBITDA of $1.5B. We should know for sure on the revenue/EBITDA after the investor call tomorrow.

I'll note that full vesting requires Tesla to be valued over $650B with some really massive revenue and EBITDA increases.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DarkandStormy on January 29, 2020, 02:26:18 PM
If you say so.  Sorry I didn't type up a full dissertation on why "doubling output every two years" isn't sustainable.  Companies can achieve a lot of great things if they just don't care about making an income for their investors.  This is why Tesla is a cult stock.

You know, I don't have a dog in this fight. Outside of VTSAX holding some amount I'm too lazy to look up, I don't own any Tesla stock. I don't plan to own any. I barely own a car, and I have no plans to own another one in the near future, unless someone gives me a Tesla and I inexplicably don't immediately sell it. I don't give a crap about Tesla either way.

But when you respond to someone pointing out that, in fact, something you mocked (Tesla production doubling every couple of years) is TRUE by moving on to another critique, then it's hard to take you seriously.

It appears you have plenty of time to respond to this thread, too, so don't claim that you're being somehow misunderstood because of your brevity.

You could easily have said something like "wow, if they can keep doubling production that will be amazing - thanks for pointing that out. I was wrong. They still need to make consistent profits, though."  That way you sound like a reasonable person, not just someone who dislikes Tesla because other people like it.

-W

If you had actually read what I said and didn't have a dog in the fight, you'd note that I never said, "Tesla hasn't doubled production every 2 years like many claim."  I never disputed it.  Not sure why it's being brought up as a "gotcha."  All I said was that they had trouble - they like to refer it as "production hell" - when attempting to scale up Model 3 production.  If they had demonstrated that the autonomous production they've being hyping for years was actually viable, then I'd be much more likely to predict that they could keep scaling that quickly.

So, sure, if they can keep doubling production and actually make inroads in market share of the auto industry (and there are some signs pointing to them maxing out demand in the U.S.) then they will still need to make consistent profits - something they haven't yet done.  Is that better?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: waltworks on January 29, 2020, 02:42:38 PM
I've got a friend who is in the Musk/Tesla cult, full on. His reasoning is that Tesla will just continue to double output every two years. That's simply something we haven't seen with them beyond getting through "production hell" with Model 3.

Ok, so can you explain what you meant by this? I read it as claiming they have not been doubling output every 2 years.

-W
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: aspiringnomad on January 29, 2020, 02:58:12 PM
Stock at $620650 after hours on earnings beat and confirmation of Model Y deliveries this quarter.

Edited: Ok, no more price updates from me, ya'll are aware of Yahoo finance.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on January 29, 2020, 05:18:00 PM
Some Q4 2019 Letter Highlights:
Cash balance up to $6.3 billion
Model Y deliveries starting Q1 2020 instead of fall 2020. Range increased from 280 to 315 which is a blow to competition
Semi production and deliveries 2020
Guidance for Deliveries to "comfortably exceed 500,000 units" in 2020
Beat estimates on Revenue and Earnings last quarter

 
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on January 29, 2020, 06:25:48 PM

If you had actually read what I said and didn't have a dog in the fight, you'd note that I never said, "Tesla hasn't doubled production every 2 years like many claim."  I never disputed it.  Not sure why it's being brought up as a "gotcha."  All I said was that they had trouble - they like to refer it as "production hell" - when attempting to scale up Model 3 production.

Cool lets go into the wayback machine to earlier in this thread:

I've got a friend who is in the Musk/Tesla cult, full on. His reasoning is that Tesla will just continue to double output every two years. That's simply something we haven't seen with them beyond getting through "production hell" with Model 3. And they're still building them in a tent lmao.

Yeah, that's what you were claiming.


Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on February 03, 2020, 02:15:28 PM
At what stock price does Tesla become a good investment?

Closed at $780 today. Continued short squeeze and institutional accumulation in anticipation of S&P 500 inclusion could drive the price over $1,000 in coming days to weeks (not advice). Congrats to the longs who didn't listen to the "experts" and FUD.  Congrats to us all on a cleaner energy and transportation future.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: talltexan on February 03, 2020, 02:31:42 PM
Which of these sounds more true to those of you who've read this far into the thread?


Sometimes risky investments work out. Sometimes the market misprices things. It may be that the window to collect above-market returns has closed for Tesla because of this rapid increase.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on February 03, 2020, 03:10:23 PM
Which of these sounds more true to those of you who've read this far into the thread?

  • If Tesla is a GOOD investment at $770, then it was a GREAT investment at $470
  • Tesla going up to $770 for reasons orthogonal to the fundamental value of its business do not mean it's a good investment.

Sometimes risky investments work out. Sometimes the market misprices things. It may be that the window to collect above-market returns has closed for Tesla because of this rapid increase.

3) Tesla was a great investment for those who bought into the vision at sub $100/share when all the experts were talking about how no one will ever buy a compelling EV. You can't make an EV with enough range. You can make an EV with range for under $40,000. Tesla will be bankrupt in X months. Teslas catch fire and have poor build quality. Tesla sales are reliant solely on subsidies. They'll never be able to mass produce the Model 3. Etc...

The investment only seemed overly risky to those who bought into the FUD and misinformation and failed to see the disruption in the making.  Far riskier to invest into dying ICE manufacturers and oil companies at this point.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: v8rx7guy on February 03, 2020, 04:37:29 PM
Phew!  Just checked, TSLA is in my most heavily invested 401K mutual fund VITSX.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Joe Schmo on February 03, 2020, 05:55:03 PM
Th brokest, least financially sound person I've ever met told me 6 months ago that TSLA would be down around $10 in a year....next time he gives me a "hot tip" I'll know what to do!!
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: use2betrix on February 03, 2020, 07:57:19 PM
Tesla is up about 150% since the start of this thread from March 2018....
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: aspiringnomad on February 03, 2020, 09:36:29 PM
Tesla is up about 150% since the start of this thread from March 2018....

I've got it at 193% from the date the thread was started. In any case, I'm still expecting a sharp pull-back sometime in the near-term, but I've got no idea when and no interest into trying to guess exactly when, let alone acting on that guess.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on February 04, 2020, 06:38:21 AM
This valuation is very high for today's activity. Depending on what your projections look like over the next 10 years, $161 billion could still be low.

Conjecture until Mid-February, but a couple of weeks ago, Larry Fink of Blackrock announced that it was starting to exit carbon based stocks and reallocate capital to sustainability. Blackrock has $7 trillion under management, but there aren't a lot of major plays in sustainability right now except Tesla. Being responsible for a $100 billion raise is consistent with their message, and if that's their long play, these levels would hold pretty well over time.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: JetBlast on February 04, 2020, 08:27:51 AM
Conjecture until Mid-February, but a couple of weeks ago, Larry Fink of Blackrock announced that it was starting to exit carbon based stocks and reallocate capital to sustainability. Blackrock has $7 trillion under management, but there aren't a lot of major plays in sustainability right now except Tesla. Being responsible for a $100 billion raise is consistent with their message, and if that's their long play, these levels would hold pretty well over time.

I think the announcement moved TSLA as much any buying by Blackrock.  There was very high short interest in TSLA, but would you want to be short if you though a big player like Blackrock was starting to take a major long position?  TSLA's chart looks like a classic short squeeze.   

Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Daisyedwards800 on February 04, 2020, 09:44:34 AM
So far I own 6 shares of Tesla...I've made $3500.  Should I take my profits now?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: JLee on February 04, 2020, 09:45:36 AM
So far I own 6 shares of Tesla...I've made $3500.  Should I take my profits now?

You've made another $30 since this post, lol
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: talltexan on February 04, 2020, 12:14:13 PM
Obviously you want to wait until it's higher to take profits.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ChpBstrd on February 04, 2020, 02:24:46 PM
Th brokest, least financially sound person I've ever met told me 6 months ago that TSLA would be down around $10 in a year....next time he gives me a "hot tip" I'll know what to do!!

At one point I thought about aggregating data from Yahoo Finance and SeekingAlpha.com and analyzing the data to see if the stocks being promoted there could be reliably shorted. Remember when dry bulk shippers were the next big thing? Dryships FTW!
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: talltexan on February 05, 2020, 09:01:58 AM
I remember that dry-ship spike.

But seriously, how do you capture that kind of gain? If you are truly buy-hold, then you wouldn't even log into your account to see that it's gone up 35X. It'd be back down to your basis by the time you check, and you'll just see that fantastic price on the annual high and feel like maybe you missed something.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ChpBstrd on February 05, 2020, 10:58:19 AM
I remember that dry-ship spike.

But seriously, how do you capture that kind of gain? If you are truly buy-hold, then you wouldn't even log into your account to see that it's gone up 35X. It'd be back down to your basis by the time you check, and you'll just see that fantastic price on the annual high and feel like maybe you missed something.

Definitely an active strategy. I’d use options to do bear spreads on the latest flash in the pan being celebrated on the more stupid corners of media and social media. Then write bullish spreads on the total market index to offset the risk of a rising tide. I would call my little hedge fund the Stupid Fund in order to get viral media attention.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: hodedofome on February 05, 2020, 01:34:04 PM
I'm thinking that perfect gap up with a doji candlestick on record volume yesterday was the top, at least for a while.

I sold back at $550 so I've got no skin in this game, but if I was still in it I would have sold it all yesterday.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Retire-Canada on February 05, 2020, 01:38:03 PM
Can someone tell me what % Tesla is of VTI? I had a go at Google and can't get that answer with my limited kungfu. Just curious how much I own.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: v8rx7guy on February 05, 2020, 02:20:13 PM
Can someone tell me what % Tesla is of VTI? I had a go at Google and can't get that answer with my limited kungfu. Just curious how much I own.

If it's anything like my Vanguard total Stock Index Fund (VITSX) it's probably around 0.19%

Edit: yes, it is.

Tesla is on the 90-120 holding page with a market value of 1.699 B$ .  Total VTI market value 897.6 B$

https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/overview/VTI/portfolio-holdings
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Retire-Canada on February 05, 2020, 07:20:40 PM
If it's anything like my Vanguard total Stock Index Fund (VITSX) it's probably around 0.19%

Thank you.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: robartsd on February 06, 2020, 09:05:44 AM
Can someone tell me what % Tesla is of VTI? I had a go at Google and can't get that answer with my limited kungfu. Just curious how much I own.
VTI is market cap weighted. It basically has the same fractional ownership stake in each of the companies it holds, so the percentage of VTI made up by Tesla grows as the value of Tesla goes up relative to the overall market. If the value of Tesla goes down relative to the overall market,  the percentage of VTI made up by Tesla will also go down.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: hodedofome on February 19, 2020, 09:24:46 AM
I'm thinking that perfect gap up with a doji candlestick on record volume yesterday was the top, at least for a while.

I sold back at $550 so I've got no skin in this game, but if I was still in it I would have sold it all yesterday.

I guess it was just a temporary top. Too many people thinking TSLA is gonna take over the electrical car world.

I bought back in yesterday morning, looks like the consolidation between $700-800 is over and this is running back up to new highs. Wouldn't surprise me to see at least $1,500 before the bull run in TSLA is over for a little while.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: v8rx7guy on February 19, 2020, 09:36:43 AM
Dammit, another 10% pop.  I'm definitely feeling some FOMO here. 
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Davnasty on February 19, 2020, 09:46:59 AM
Dammit, another 10% pop.  I'm definitely feeling some FOMO here.

Right? I've never bought an individual stock but the day it dropped under $180 I was in the process of opening a Robin Hood account just to buy TSLA. I stopped and thought "what am I doing, this isn't part of my IPS".

8 months later...

But the truth is I never would have held on this long, I probably would have sold at $300 and certainly by the time it doubled.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: aspiringnomad on February 19, 2020, 04:25:06 PM
But the truth is I never would have held on this long, I probably would have sold at $300 and certainly by the time it doubled.

Not trying to make you feel worse FOMO, but if you're normally a buy-and-hold indexer I'd be surprised if you actually sold that early in the company's growth period. I'd guess that very few retail investors who own this stock and fit that bill are moving in and out of it at this point in the story, and that's partly what's supporting the stock price during this run-up.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on February 19, 2020, 06:52:32 PM
Don't jump into any stock just because it's popping. Do your research. Tesla may get cut in half next week. Or shoot passed $1000/share. Too hard to tell in the short term.

Long term, I think Tesla is an incredible opportunity so I'm holding for years unless the company stops being a leader in technology. Last week, Tesla increased the range of the S and X by 16% to 390/351 miles, respectively. The Model Y will start delivering in March with 315 miles with a dual motor. So far the competition is pathetic in comparison.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Davnasty on February 19, 2020, 06:59:24 PM
But the truth is I never would have held on this long, I probably would have sold at $300 and certainly by the time it doubled.

Not trying to make you feel worse FOMO, but if you're normally a buy-and-hold indexer I'd be surprised if you actually sold that early in the company's growth period. I'd guess that very few retail investors who own this stock and fit that bill are moving in and out of it at this point in the story, and that's partly what's supporting the stock price during this run-up.

If I had gone through with it the decision would have been mentally categorized as gambling, not investing. I like Tesla as a company but I have no idea what they're worth.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: FrugalSaver on February 22, 2020, 01:08:20 AM
I tease the Tesla bull in the office that he ought to trim his risk profile by moving into crypto-

What’s the latest on this?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: FrugalSaver on February 22, 2020, 01:08:53 AM
I’m curious what the Colorado poster is thinking these days


I've been trading the volatility with swing shares. Holding all my core shares. Last bought 10 shares at $234 on Friday. As a long-term investor I'm not worried about one bad quarter. Bears/shorts counting on a demand issue will be disappointed. They've been making that argument for about 5 years. Meanwhile Tesla has yet to spend a dollar on paid advertising.

I maintained my core shares all the way down to $180 through to a $328 close yesterday. I'm well into the green with my core position at this SP and started harvesting some gains above $300. Continued to deploy my swing trade shares as best I could over the past few months as well, buying with every over-reaction or negative news story that dipped the SP. I did catch a few falling knives that prevented me from buying as much as I would have liked at sub $200/share prices though. Analyzed all my trades YTD and I'm up about $3,000 on my swing trades, though its more accurate to say I lowered my cost basis by about $6/share, while I wait for the big gains.

I've enjoyed seeing the TSLAQ and short-seller crowd getting hammered the last few days. It will be very interesting how the stock performs on Monday.  Was Friday a one-time price adjustment based on the earnings report or the start of the long awaited short squeeze. Congrats to those who rode out the trying times and the avalanche of FUD.

How are things going?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: FrugalSaver on February 22, 2020, 01:27:39 AM
No justification for this stock price.  An unprofitable company that's only "growing" because they're trying to expand geographically.  U.S. sales are slowing down.  Their Q4 18 production rate essentially matched FY19 - meaning they didn't grow in '19 (remember, '18 came with the caveats of "production hell" and "look at our Q4 production for our true production rate, yada yada).

Your analysis seems pretty bizarre. Tesla produced about 50% more cars in 2019 than they did in 2018. Virtually all of which were produced in Fremont. This is in the ballpark of their long-term average growth rate, starting in 2012 with the launch of the Model S.

Do you think we see a sizeable pullback in share price from $1000?  Are we in BYND territory here?  Trying to protect profits but also not be short sighted
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: FrugalSaver on February 26, 2020, 05:56:55 PM
Wow this thread died 😁
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on February 27, 2020, 08:10:17 AM
After the initial price spike, it's just not that interesting ;)

It's likely to continue being a volatile stock, but even with the recent downtrend (as the whole market is doing) - it's over $700 when it was ~$180 ~6 months ago.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: v8rx7guy on February 27, 2020, 08:23:39 AM
I feel like my buy opportunity might be back sooner than expected.  I'd like to get in below $500
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: vand on February 28, 2020, 06:59:33 AM
Haven’t really been following this thread, but this podcast I found very informative through the lens of the classic value investor: https://overcast.fm/+QyZ322bsA
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ChpBstrd on February 28, 2020, 07:33:33 AM
Wow this thread died 😁

It’s as if everyone lost interest in the question about whether TSLA is a good investment as soon as the stock quit going up. Weird.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: v8rx7guy on February 28, 2020, 08:53:08 AM
Wow this thread died 😁

It’s as if everyone lost interest in the question about whether TSLA is a good investment as soon as the stock quit going up. Weird.

I'm excited to actually buy in, did not expect a buy opportunity to come so quickly
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: FrugalSaver on March 05, 2020, 03:46:26 PM
Anyone bought any (more) yet?  I’m still waiting for further pullback. May never get it but I suspect we will
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: aspiringnomad on March 05, 2020, 03:53:01 PM
Not much to say, really. I'm expecting a big dip post Q1 earnings, but that's 70% a defense mechanism to prepare me for the drop. Still holding for the long-term. Check back in 2024 or sooner if it goes bankwupt.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: PaulMaxime on March 05, 2020, 03:59:46 PM
Anyone bought any (more) yet?  I’m still waiting for further pullback. May never get it but I suspect we will

Bought 60 more shares between 630-650 on the last big drop. That brings me to about 600 shares. overall cost basis is ~240
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: talltexan on March 09, 2020, 09:08:56 AM
The gains are nice, but isn't the 30% decline in two weeks the sign of an investment that is not appropriate for many?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Davnasty on March 09, 2020, 10:09:18 AM
The gains are nice, but isn't the 30% decline in two weeks the sign of an investment that is not appropriate for many?

Investing in individual stocks is not appropriate for many
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Roland of Gilead on March 09, 2020, 10:27:40 AM
With $20 oil, I am probably looking at buying Tesla in the $250 area.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: JLee on March 09, 2020, 10:34:56 AM
With $20 oil, I am probably looking at buying Tesla in the $250 area.

Even if oil were free, I'd rather drive an EV.  The world will eventually realize this.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Roland of Gilead on March 09, 2020, 10:58:39 AM
With $20 oil, I am probably looking at buying Tesla in the $250 area.

Even if oil were free, I'd rather drive an EV.  The world will eventually realize this.

I would too, if an EV was $20,000 with a 500 mile range.  It isn't, yet.

Don't get me wrong, I actually put down $100 for a Cybertruck.  I just mean your average Joe and Jane working 7am to 5pm shift at the Waffle house are not going to be buying a $40,000 EV when they can get a $20,000 car and $1.70 gas.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: FrugalSaver on March 12, 2020, 10:26:29 PM
Going to be getting a lot cheaper soon. How long will it be cheaper?  Remains to be seen
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: v8rx7guy on March 12, 2020, 10:41:12 PM
Dammit, another 10% pop.  I'm definitely feeling some FOMO here.

Throw back thursday to when TSLA was pushing 1000
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: talltexan on March 16, 2020, 08:18:55 AM
It's amazing how expensive it was, and equally amazing how expensive it would have been to short.

Financial advisor told me he just reminds everyone that they don't have to be right on this one company, there are thousands of other ways to make money.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: FrugalSaver on March 16, 2020, 10:37:19 PM
Opportunity presenting itself soon.

Ive been selling puts below $200 with short term expiry
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: bthewalls on March 21, 2020, 10:01:46 AM
isnt investing in any single company, as apposed to indexing, full of risk over a longer term period.

Tesla may be popular and sexy at the moment and look reasonable on the books, but I bought it as a long term gamble for the 10-15 year period.  Its very volatile to trade.

Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ender on March 21, 2020, 11:02:14 AM
Something to consider is that TSLA is still up to nearly 2x it was less than 6 months ago...
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: vand on March 21, 2020, 11:16:08 AM
I don't see how the the likely recession is going to help the bull case for TSLA at all:

- With the oil crash, Gasoline is cheaper than it has ever been

- Poltiical pressure to move against ICE vehicles will disappear. It won't be popular to cludgeon hard up ICE owners when things are tough. The environment can wait.

- People will have less money in general, so the new cars market which TSLA primarily serves is going to get hammered. They will need even more new capital even sooner than previously.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on April 30, 2020, 08:14:47 AM
Q1 financials were strong somehow. Quite the roller coaster, but they laid out the path to $250 billion market cap in 2021 during the call with a production capacity of 1 million cars at 25% gross margin.

Q2 could look like anything. 20k cars produced but not yet delivered at the end of Q1. China is at 200k run rate currently. They've pushed out automatically recognizing and stopping Stop Signs and Stop lights this month, and with $600 million in deferred FSD revenue on the books, that's a nice cushion to deliver with more feature updates. With all that, it could still be terrible. I'm still holding long term because their investments are clearly starting to bear fruit. Without Covid, this stock would be over $1000 today. Weathering Q2 is a big question mark, but they've got $8.1 billion in cash so no short term liquidity issues.

2021+, pretty optimistic.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: LoanShark on April 30, 2020, 08:34:36 AM
I can't see the longstanding effects of COVID, namely a significant drop in commuters and therefore less gas consumption, being good for Tesla in the long term. Plus, it's a luxury car and people will not be buying luxury goods at the same rate for the short and medium term.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on April 30, 2020, 06:26:05 PM
I can't see the longstanding effects of COVID, namely a significant drop in commuters and therefore less gas consumption, being good for Tesla in the long term. Plus, it's a luxury car and people will not be buying luxury goods at the same rate for the short and medium term.

On the other hand, people are really liking the clean air from reduced fossil burner usage.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DarkandStormy on May 01, 2020, 07:28:13 AM
Q1 financials were strong somehow. Quite the roller coaster, but they laid out the path to $250 billion market cap in 2021 during the call with a production capacity of 1 million cars at 25% gross margin.

https://twitter.com/davidein/status/1255862005535322112

Hmmm....

https://twitter.com/orthereaboot/status/1255836324202008577
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on May 01, 2020, 08:41:27 AM
Uninterested in the conspiracy theories of malicious shorts. Einhorn's fund has been a loser for 5 years in a bull market. I'll decline Greenlight's advice and keep my own investing counsel.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-30/einhorn-s-greenlight-hedge-funds-deepen-slump-with-april-decline (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-30/einhorn-s-greenlight-hedge-funds-deepen-slump-with-april-decline)
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DarkandStormy on May 01, 2020, 09:40:13 AM
I'll take the CEO's counsel - https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184

Quote
@elonmusk
Tesla stock price is too high imo
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Telecaster on May 04, 2020, 01:00:32 PM
Didn't the SEC ban him from talking about stock prices?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DarkandStormy on May 04, 2020, 02:49:20 PM
Didn't the SEC ban him from talking about stock prices?

Either his twitter sitter approved the tweet or there's another lawsuit coming lol
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on May 04, 2020, 10:24:24 PM
The tweet was stupid, but didn’t violate his SEC settlement.

I know haters gonna hate, but...

1-yr return
VTI, -5%
TSLA, +198%

5-yr return
VTI, +30%
TSLA, +221%

10-yr return
VTI, +230%
TSLA, +3,094%

Is Tesla a good investment? Yeah, I think so.

Note, I’m not trashing VTI, which is my largest holding.


Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: diggo on May 04, 2020, 11:20:57 PM
The tweet was stupid, but didn’t violate his SEC settlement.

I know haters gonna hate, but...

1-yr return
VTI, -5%
TSLA, +198%

5-yr return
VTI, +30%
TSLA, +221%

10-yr return
VTI, +230%
TSLA, +3,094%

Is Tesla a good investment? Yeah, I think so.

Note, I’m not trashing VTI, which is my largest holding.

Tesla's price is way beyond fundamentals now. Irrational exuberance is driving the stock price. There's no way it is worth ~$145 billion. For that price you can own ALL of the following brands PLUS about $20B spare cash:

Mercedes, BMW, Audi, Volkswagen, Porsche, Lamborghini, Rolls Royce, Bentley, Mini, Bugatti, Skoda, many others.....

I really like what Elon is is doing and I hope Tesla succeeds. But huge competition is coming to the Electric Vehicle / Autonomous Driving space. Tesla's EV market share will diminish over time and there's not much you can do about it. The auto industry is a tough business to be in, you cannot monopolize it.

It's trading around $770 right now. I think it will be under $200 per share again in the not too distant future.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DarkandStormy on May 05, 2020, 09:04:57 AM
The tweet was stupid, but didn’t violate his SEC settlement.

I know haters gonna hate, but...

1-yr return
VTI, -5%
TSLA, +198%

5-yr return
VTI, +30%
TSLA, +221%

10-yr return
VTI, +230%
TSLA, +3,094%

Is Tesla a good investment? Yeah, I think so.

Note, I’m not trashing VTI, which is my largest holding.

You do realize you can cherry pick a bunch of stocks to make them look like incredible investments, right?

1-year return:
ISEE: +146%
DRRX: +196%
EVER: +367%

5-year return:
NFLX: +356%
MKTX: +413%

10-year return:
AVGO: +1,182%
NFLX: +2,611%
MKTX: +3,131%

Of course, you can back test any # of stocks and show that they're good investments, far outpacing the major indices, etc.

As diggo noted, normal fundamentals don't apply to TSLA.  It's basically a cult stock.  Whether that makes it a "good" investment is subjective.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on May 05, 2020, 10:09:56 AM
You do realize you can cherry pick a bunch of stocks to make them look like incredible investments, right?

Seems to me that those stocks you cherry-picked have clearly been good investments to their shareholders if those returns are accurate. Don't understand your point, though. ColoradoTribe has been arguing in the affirmative of the topic since the start of the thread 2 years ago. It's an irrefutable fact that shareholders since the start of the thread have benefited from Tesla stock appreciation.

Plenty of arguments and projections have been made in this thread for future valuations based on product and service growth so saying normal fundamentals don't apply, when stock prices reflect growth projections of institutional and retail investors, is disingenuous. I agree what's considered a good investment is subjective. You mentioned earlier that you don't buy individual stocks because all are too risky so by definition all stocks are cult stocks to you. Yet you know enough about TSLA to post short investment theory. Why?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DarkandStormy on May 05, 2020, 11:01:04 AM
You do realize you can cherry pick a bunch of stocks to make them look like incredible investments, right?

Seems to me that those stocks you cherry-picked have clearly been good investments to their shareholders if those returns are accurate. Don't understand your point, though. ColoradoTribe has been arguing in the affirmative of the topic since the start of the thread 2 years ago. It's an irrefutable fact that shareholders since the start of the thread have benefited from Tesla stock appreciation.

Plenty of arguments and projections have been made in this thread for future valuations based on product and service growth so saying normal fundamentals don't apply, when stock prices reflect growth projections of institutional and retail investors, is disingenuous. I agree what's considered a good investment is subjective. You mentioned earlier that you don't buy individual stocks because all are too risky so by definition all stocks are cult stocks to you. Yet you know enough about TSLA to post short investment theory. Why?

Did not realize ~2 years was the time horizon for what we determine to be a "good" investment.  As this forum is FI-focused, I imagine people have a longer timeline in mind, which is why many (most?) invest in index funds.

The entire basis of whether or not Tesla is a "good" investment is if you think the return/reward outweighs the risk.  Investing in a single company comes with inherently more risk than broad-based index funds.  That is all this is - do you think TSLA can outperform whatever index over the time period you want to be invested.  That's it.

I do not think all stocks are cult stocks.  That's a bit of a strawman, eh?

Just because I don't invest individually in TSLA (I probably have ~5 shares via index investing) means I suddenly can't or shouldn't be somewhat aware of its performance?  LOL what a crock of crap that is.  Sorry, didn't realize there were pre reqs to pass to be able to post about TSLA lmao.

I said it before, but I'll reiterate - I admire Tesla from a distance, from a "this is needed for the future of our planet and species" point of view.  I think the cars are cool.  I think Musk is a shit CEO and has developed a cult-like following not dissimilar from Pete.  I think Tesla routinely misleads the public about its timelines and overstates the functionality of "full self driving."  I think they are ahead of their competition in terms of EV range and ease of use (superchargers, app, etc.).  I can think all of these things about the company, some you may view as a positive and some you may view as a negative.  It's a fascinating company to observe.  I read the book on Musk several years ago and spent many hours reading about him on waitbutwhy.  I just don't happen to view TSLA as a sound investment for me and I think investing in any individual company as a material percentage of one's portfolio is risky.  It's why *most* FI bloggers, podcasters, etc. advocate all or nearly all investments to go to index funds.  I still fail to see why I can't comment on TSLA?  Heck, most of what I've posted barely scratches the surface - you can find much more in-depth analysis of the company out there.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on May 05, 2020, 12:33:09 PM
The cult stock comment wasn't fair. A good investment can be for any time horizon. Whatever desired gain over a time period. Not all have to be long term. IMO, the vast majority of FI bloggers say what's safe to bait affiliate clicks, churning out the same article every 6 months that someone else already wrote better 5-10 years ago. Of course I think TSLA will outperform the index over the next 5 years. 2 year time horizon on on this thread is just a fact.

I didn't say you couldn't comment on Tesla. I want to understand your valuation. If it's just that it's too risky and you don't like the CEO,
Ok, but you posted information about fraud in the 10Q. Do you agree that their current financials are fraudulent?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on May 05, 2020, 12:52:26 PM
The tweet was stupid, but didn’t violate his SEC settlement.

I know haters gonna hate, but...

1-yr return
VTI, -5%
TSLA, +198%

5-yr return
VTI, +30%
TSLA, +221%

10-yr return
VTI, +230%
TSLA, +3,094%

Is Tesla a good investment? Yeah, I think so.

Note, I’m not trashing VTI, which is my largest holding.

You do realize you can cherry pick a bunch of stocks to make them look like incredible investments, right?

1-year return:
ISEE: +146%
DRRX: +196%
EVER: +367%

5-year return:
NFLX: +356%
MKTX: +413%

10-year return:
AVGO: +1,182%
NFLX: +2,611%
MKTX: +3,131%

Of course, you can back test any # of stocks and show that they're good investments, far outpacing the major indices, etc.

As diggo noted, normal fundamentals don't apply to TSLA.  It's basically a cult stock.  Whether that makes it a "good" investment is subjective.

I'm not cherry picking. I've owned Tesla stock since 2013. It is the only individual stock I own. I could sell my holdings today and would have nearly tripled my investment. I didn't cherry pick my dates either, as 1, 5 and 10 years are pretty standard investment performance intervals.  You don't like Tesla or think its a good investment. The return numbers suggest otherwise. No one is forcing you to invest, so not sure why people not invested in Tesla have such strong feelings about the company.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DarkandStormy on May 05, 2020, 12:54:05 PM
I didn't say you couldn't comment on Tesla. I want to understand your valuation. If it's just that it's too risky and you don't like the CEO,
Ok, but you posted information about fraud in the 10Q. Do you agree that their current financials are fraudulent?

I believe multiple people with more time on their hands and who are smarter than me believe the current financials are misstated - fraudulent implies intent to mislead.  I also trust the auditors or SEC to catch any such fraudulence if random twitter users can point it out the day the 10Q is published.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Daisyedwards800 on May 05, 2020, 01:00:46 PM
PwC is their auditor.  If there is intent to mislead it's tough for auditors to figure that out, but PwC is a top firm.

(Bought at $190 and $323).
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on May 05, 2020, 01:20:01 PM
The tweet was stupid, but didn’t violate his SEC settlement.

I know haters gonna hate, but...

1-yr return
VTI, -5%
TSLA, +198%

5-yr return
VTI, +30%
TSLA, +221%

10-yr return
VTI, +230%
TSLA, +3,094%

Is Tesla a good investment? Yeah, I think so.

Note, I’m not trashing VTI, which is my largest holding.

Tesla's price is way beyond fundamentals now. Irrational exuberance is driving the stock price. There's no way it is worth ~$145 billion. For that price you can own ALL of the following brands PLUS about $20B spare cash:

Mercedes, BMW, Audi, Volkswagen, Porsche, Lamborghini, Rolls Royce, Bentley, Mini, Bugatti, Skoda, many others.....

I really like what Elon is is doing and I hope Tesla succeeds. But huge competition is coming to the Electric Vehicle / Autonomous Driving space. Tesla's EV market share will diminish over time and there's not much you can do about it. The auto industry is a tough business to be in, you cannot monopolize it.

It's trading around $770 right now. I think it will be under $200 per share again in the not too distant future.

Which of the car brands you listed is doubling sales year over year? In fact, Tesla is the only domestic manufacturer with increasing sales these days. Investing in any of those traditional car companies in 2020 would be like investing in the country's largest livery stables in 1910, while laughing at the puny new car companies and their small sales. You'd be talking about how "Ford is sooo over valued compared to the livery companies, which sell 100 horses for every new fangled car." Ten years later you would have been broke. Horses to cars might seem like a bigger shift than ICE to EV, but fundamentally it will be the same and many of the current car brands will not survive.  Tesla is priced higher than those companies because you invest based on future valuation and revenue and not the past.

No traditional manufacturer has come close to matching Tesla on performance, range and price. Some are cheaper with less range, poorer performance and faster battery degradation. Some can match performance and range, but at a higher price. People have been talking about how Tesla is going to get squashed by the competition for years and years, and Tesla's lead and market shares have expanded each year. In response to the pandemic all the major manufacturers are pulling in their EV investments, which means Tesla's lead and market share will only increase further going forward. That's the problem, the Fords and GMs of the world can't invest heavily in the future while also maintaining their core ICE business model and without pissing off their investors that only care about their dividend and the next quarterly earnings report.  They can't serve two masters and Tesla has no such conflict.

Its another misconception that Tesla needs to "monopolize" the EV market to succeed. A smaller slice of a growing pie still makes for a wildly profitable Tesla. Its also a misconception that Tesla is only an EV company.

Tesla is a volatile stock, so I know and expect more violent swings in the future. I'd say 400 is the floor unless the whole global economy goes down the shitter, than it doesn't really matter where you're invested.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Telecaster on May 06, 2020, 05:33:17 PM
Which of the car brands you listed is doubling sales year over year? In fact, Tesla is the only domestic manufacturer with increasing sales these days. Investing in any of those traditional car companies in 2020 would be like investing in the country's largest livery stables in 1910, while laughing at the puny new car companies and their small sales. You'd be talking about how "Ford is sooo over valued compared to the livery companies, which sell 100 horses for every new fangled car." Ten years later you would have been broke. Horses to cars might seem like a bigger shift than ICE to EV, but fundamentally it will be the same and many of the current car brands will not survive.  Tesla is priced higher than those companies because you invest based on future valuation and revenue and not the past.


The part in bold is the whole key.  You are absolutely right.  Over the long term you are buying the expectation of future earnings. 

So let's go back to the VW/Telsa comparison.  Tesla of course has a higher market cap than VW.  Now, Tesla hasn't yet posted a yearly profit, so we can't look backwards.  But let's assume at some point Tesla makes the same number of cars as VW, and makes the same amount of money on each car.  At that point they would be worth about the same amount of money.  If Tesla grew sales by 25% a year, it would take them 15 years to reach VW's sales last year.   And that's sales, Tesla would have to grow profits even faster.

Anything is possible I suppose, but you are paying an enormous premium for the expected growth. 

Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: aspiringnomad on May 06, 2020, 10:26:41 PM
Which of the car brands you listed is doubling sales year over year? In fact, Tesla is the only domestic manufacturer with increasing sales these days. Investing in any of those traditional car companies in 2020 would be like investing in the country's largest livery stables in 1910, while laughing at the puny new car companies and their small sales. You'd be talking about how "Ford is sooo over valued compared to the livery companies, which sell 100 horses for every new fangled car." Ten years later you would have been broke. Horses to cars might seem like a bigger shift than ICE to EV, but fundamentally it will be the same and many of the current car brands will not survive.  Tesla is priced higher than those companies because you invest based on future valuation and revenue and not the past.


The part in bold is the whole key.  You are absolutely right.  Over the long term you are buying the expectation of future earnings. 

So let's go back to the VW/Telsa comparison.  Tesla of course has a higher market cap than VW.  Now, Tesla hasn't yet posted a yearly profit, so we can't look backwards.  But let's assume at some point Tesla makes the same number of cars as VW, and makes the same amount of money on each car.  At that point they would be worth about the same amount of money.  If Tesla grew sales by 25% a year, it would take them 15 years to reach VW's sales last year.   And that's sales, Tesla would have to grow profits even faster.

Anything is possible I suppose, but you are paying an enormous premium for the expected growth.

Not sure where you're getting your assumptions. But does VW generate 20-25% margins on the cars they sell? Do they have a fast growing battery storage and energy generation business? Do they collect revenue from software sales like Tesla does and a path to ramp up that revenue as quickly as Tesla does? Are they unencumbered by legacy ICE suppliers, labor agreements, and manufacturing investments like Tesla is?

Point is, you might be right but your back of the envelope analysis isn't more nuanced than the market's.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on May 07, 2020, 09:11:35 AM
Tesla's future revenue will be influenced as much by software as hardware so comparing its future revenue apples to apples with VW doesn't really make sense. It released utility scale energy software last week. VW isn't doing anything like that.

Today, primarily, Tesla develops hardware (the cars) that delivers software. Not much of the software has been released, but it'll grow very fast as more cars continually hit the road. For example, Tesla Maps will have a couple million mapping nodes constantly driving around gathering data in the next year or two. Where Google can infer an accident has occurred either through movement of devices using Google Maps or from user input, Tesla will be able to show images to the car console (or phone app) about what the accident looks like and the progress of restoring normal traffic from Tesla vehicles passing it allowing users to make better navigation decisions. Morgan Stanley estimates Google Maps provides $3-5 billion of high margin revenue. Google and Apple won't be able to compete with Tesla Maps visual data. That's just one small potential software product Tesla can do that VW can't.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on May 07, 2020, 08:24:56 PM
So let's go back to the VW/Telsa comparison.  Tesla of course has a higher market cap than VW.  Now, Tesla hasn't yet posted a yearly profit, so we can't look backwards.  But let's assume at some point Tesla makes the same number of cars as VW, and makes the same amount of money on each car.  At that point they would be worth about the same amount of money.  If Tesla grew sales by 25% a year, it would take them 15 years to reach VW's sales last year.   And that's sales, Tesla would have to grow profits even faster.

Anything is possible I suppose, but you are paying an enormous premium for the expected growth.

Since the launch of the Model S, Tesla has had an annual unit growth rate averaging above 50% per year.

Other than immediate COVID-19 impacts, why do you think their growth rate would be cut in half? Especially now that they've proven they can stand up a new factory (muddy field to Model 3 output) in less than a year.

In addition, they seem to be a leading performer in the rapidly expanding stationary storage market, and based on recent leaks - the incumbent old-school car manufacturers believe Tesla is far ahead of them in software.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: FrugalSaver on May 17, 2020, 06:56:25 PM
Opportunity to get in much lower coming up soonish
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: kenmoremmm on May 20, 2020, 12:19:21 PM
i've never been on the tesla-train, but after reading more about EV's lately, youtube recommended this fine video for me:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pP971PYzQJs

sure looks like a good long term plan.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: medinaj2160 on May 24, 2020, 07:24:23 AM
The tweet was stupid, but didn’t violate his SEC settlement.

I know haters gonna hate, but...

1-yr return
VTI, -5%
TSLA, +198%

5-yr return
VTI, +30%
TSLA, +221%

10-yr return
VTI, +230%
TSLA, +3,094%

Is Tesla a good investment? Yeah, I think so.

Note, I’m not trashing VTI, which is my largest holding.

You do realize you can cherry pick a bunch of stocks to make them look like incredible investments, right?

1-year return:
ISEE: +146%
DRRX: +196%
EVER: +367%

5-year return:
NFLX: +356%
MKTX: +413%

10-year return:
AVGO: +1,182%
NFLX: +2,611%
MKTX: +3,131%

Of course, you can back test any # of stocks and show that they're good investments, far outpacing the major indices, etc.

As diggo noted, normal fundamentals don't apply to TSLA.  It's basically a cult stock.  Whether that makes it a "good" investment is subjective.

I'm not cherry picking. I've owned Tesla stock since 2013. It is the only individual stock I own. I could sell my holdings today and would have nearly tripled my investment. I didn't cherry pick my dates either, as 1, 5 and 10 years are pretty standard investment performance intervals.  You don't like Tesla or think its a good investment. The return numbers suggest otherwise. No one is forcing you to invest, so not sure why people not invested in Tesla have such strong feelings about the company.

I agree 100%. I was able to get VTI at $110 at the bottom of the COVID drop and Tesla....guess which one has doubled?

Tesla has become my largest holding and I am not planning on selling any of it any time soon but maybe in 10 years. My index funds will make me a millionaire but IMO will make me multiple millions. If I am wrong I will just work a few more years. My average cost is around $250 and I believe we might see $600 Tesla shares in the future but not much lower than that.

Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: FrugalSaver on May 24, 2020, 11:13:49 AM
TSLA is worth more than every US auto maker and every US airline...combined
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: waltworks on May 24, 2020, 11:17:52 AM
TSLA is worth more than every US auto maker and every US airline...combined

I mean, to be fair, that's actually possible and even reasonable depending on your assumptions. Legacy automakers and airlines have HUGE liabilities (pensions, union contracts, etc). In the case of airlines, there's some uncertainty as to whether they will even exist without continued gov't intervention (in many cases a bailout will wipe out stockholders 100%, too).

So that comparison is IMO a bit silly right now. A lot of the automakers and airlines could have literally no future value if you're looking at it from the perspective of a stockholder.

That is not to say that Tesla is a screaming buy or anything.

-W
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on May 24, 2020, 12:24:38 PM
TSLA is worth more than every US auto maker and every US airline...combined
There's dozens of companies larger than the entire airline industry: Oracle, McDonalds, Netflix, Intel, Visa, Apple... but it doesn't really mean anything about those companies.

How is the airline industry relevant to the stock price of a car marker?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Pizzabrewer on June 10, 2020, 05:27:04 PM
Broke $1000 today.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: talltexan on June 11, 2020, 07:30:28 AM
I saw that Tesla passed Toyota to become the #1 car company in the world in market cap. Quite the milestone!
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: effigy98 on June 22, 2020, 08:07:23 PM
Stacking Tesla's, Leverage up on options with fed bailing us out. 6 trillion gotta go somewhere. Fundamentals irrelevant. Outrageous optimism.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on June 30, 2020, 08:23:59 AM
I don't use leverage, but I did buy some TSLA leaps recently. I think the stock will be $2k by Q1 2021, but the leaps give more than 2021 to reach that and return 3x compared to 2x on holding the stock in that time.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: v8rx7guy on June 30, 2020, 09:13:37 AM
I saw that Tesla passed Toyota to become the #1 car company in the world in market cap. Quite the milestone!

Revenue on the other hand is 1/10th of Toyota, last time I checked.  Not going to lie though, wishing I would have dumped my money into Tesla during this most recent bottom!
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on June 30, 2020, 10:48:47 AM
Looking at Tesla, I don't know if it will be up +50% or down -50% a couple years from now.  The bull case is the Tesla story, cemented by a new factory in China and inroads in the Chinese market.  The bear case could be financials and competitive risks.  Maybe the bull case plays out first, then the bear case?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on June 30, 2020, 03:02:06 PM
Bull case is 10+ years: technology disruption in transportation and energy. It's a long case. More near term: 1.5 million vehicles produced in 2022 from Fremont, China and Germany factories at 25%-30% margins possibly with new battery cell design ( to be detailed in Sept).  Semi at scale and possibly cybertruck at scale as well. Some monetization timeline for FSD. Nationwide insurance service. 1000/week solar roof installations (no clue what margins are). ~$600b market cap Q1 2023.

Bear case is rearview fundamentals analysis or financial fraud/conspiracies. A lot of bears expect a lawsuit or audit to blow everything up. If they're right, there's no timeline for something like that investment wise.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: sherr on July 01, 2020, 07:33:07 AM
Bull case is 10+ years: technology disruption in transportation and energy. It's a long case. More near term: 1.5 million vehicles produced in 2022 from Fremont, China and Germany factories at 25%-30% margins possibly with new battery cell design ( to be detailed in Sept).  Semi at scale and possibly cybertruck at scale as well. Some monetization timeline for FSD. Nationwide insurance service. 1000/week solar roof installations (no clue what margins are). ~$600b market cap Q1 2023.

Bear case is rearview fundamentals analysis or financial fraud/conspiracies. A lot of bears expect a lawsuit or audit to blow everything up. If they're right, there's no timeline for something like that investment wise.

Lol, "the bear case" does not require some kind of fraud/conspiracy, simply an acknowledgement that TSLA is currently vastly overvalued and that it will be many years - even assuming things go well for the company - before its current valuation makes sense. Which is I suppose what you're calling "rearview fundamentals analysis". I own a Tesla and love it, but I think you're nuts to believe it'll be $2k a year from now. But who knows, I think the current price is nuts too, so maybe you'll be right.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on July 01, 2020, 08:26:34 AM
Lol, "the bear case" does not require some kind of fraud/conspiracy, simply an acknowledgement that TSLA is currently vastly overvalued and that it will be many years - even assuming things go well for the company - before its current valuation makes sense. Which is I suppose what you're calling "rearview fundamentals analysis". I own a Tesla and love it, but I think you're nuts to believe it'll be $2k a year from now. But who knows, I think the current price is nuts too, so maybe you'll be right.

Yeah, if you value based on historical financials and operations, it's overvalued. That's a rearview perspective and a legitimate bear case. It's the best way to value mature companies because there's very little change year to year. I am not of the opinion that Tesla is a mature company or should have a mature auto OEM multiple on projected earnings. What do you think it should be worth a year from now?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: sherr on July 01, 2020, 09:08:37 AM
Lol, "the bear case" does not require some kind of fraud/conspiracy, simply an acknowledgement that TSLA is currently vastly overvalued and that it will be many years - even assuming things go well for the company - before its current valuation makes sense. Which is I suppose what you're calling "rearview fundamentals analysis". I own a Tesla and love it, but I think you're nuts to believe it'll be $2k a year from now. But who knows, I think the current price is nuts too, so maybe you'll be right.

Yeah, if you value based on historical financials and operations, it's overvalued. That's a rearview perspective and a legitimate bear case. It's the best way to value mature companies because there's very little change year to year. I am not of the opinion that Tesla is a mature company or should have a mature auto OEM multiple on projected earnings. What do you think it should be worth a year from now?

I don't know and I don't invest in individual stocks anyway. But almost certainly less than it's worth today.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on July 01, 2020, 10:15:53 AM
Bull case is 10+ years: technology disruption in transportation and energy. It's a long case. More near term: 1.5 million vehicles produced in 2022 from Fremont, China and Germany factories at 25%-30% margins possibly with new battery cell design ( to be detailed in Sept).  Semi at scale and possibly cybertruck at scale as well. Some monetization timeline for FSD. Nationwide insurance service. 1000/week solar roof installations (no clue what margins are). ~$600b market cap Q1 2023.
An analysis Elon Musk called "the best analysis to date" concluded the Tesla 3 cost $18,000 in materials and $10,000 in labor costs.  In the U.S., it doesn't seem like Tesla 3s have much of a profit margin (if any, after paying for dealerships and the like).
https://qz.com/1294282/the-tesla-model-3-cost-28000-to-build-german-engineers-say-and-it-still-may-not-be-profitable/
But you might be right about profit margins in China, where labor and batteries are both cheaper.  But how long can Tesla sell a car that costs 3.5 years of the average worker's salary?  (Tesla 3 costs $42,000 in China).

Now that I think about it, the Tesla semi truck is a really good idea.  Truckers have to limit their driving, and that probably means one recharge at lunch, and another when the day is done.  Plus it has autonomous features, which might grow over time.  Still, multiple companies are working to perfect fully autonomous long-haul trucking, which could undercut the market - and be a leap ahead of Tesla's technology.

If Tesla bets the company on the Cybertruck, then it could have problems.  Ford sells 900k F-150 a year, and has an all-electric version planned.  Elon Musk has targetted people like him with cars, which works.  I don't think he'll figure out what F-150 and Ram pickup truck owners like... and Ford already has an all-electric F-150 in the works.  Probably a steeper uphill battle than Tesla realizes.

So.. maybe a 5 year bull case that depends on exponential growth in car production and sales?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on July 02, 2020, 06:59:20 AM
Munro Associates did a 2 hours series on youtube comparing the Cybertruck to the F-150, Ram, and Silverado. Their conclusion was it's just a different type of vehicle. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQSQYQ44Qco (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQSQYQ44Qco) I think there's room in the market for both types. The 2021 Ford F-150 looks pretty great. They're really putting a lot of effort into that truck and am excited to see the electric version. How they access enough battery production to build a meaningful amount is a problem.

I think Tesla is actually betting the company on underlying technology: R&D in batteries and software. Once the million mile + batteries are released, the lifetime cost of their cars, especially for fleets, will be extremely low. That's a catalyst for very high sales as their new factories come online. It might just be smoke and mirrors, but they are building their own battery lines near Fremont right now.

Wedbush upped their price target to $2k this morning. A shocking raise. They typically trail the real price.


Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: vand on July 02, 2020, 09:05:04 AM
I can't see a legitimate bull case for Tesla. Ignoring its ludicrous valuation, cars are not the same as big tech.

In technology being big is its own advantage - the more adopted Amazon/AWS is, or the more people are on Facebook then more more that confers benefits to the existing users, so scale becomes a very powerful moat.

In cars, mass production has the opposite effect. Nobody aspires to own a Ford or a Toyota because of what it says about the owner. In automobile market you aspire to luxury brands. Therefore as Tesla grows to justify the lofty market expectations that are placed on it and their models become more widespread, the lure of owning a Tesla loses its appeal. Success will be its own downfall.

Tesla may be the market leader in electric motors, but their know-how will be difficult to maintain in such a competitive industry.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: v8rx7guy on July 02, 2020, 10:31:57 AM
I can't see a legitimate bull case for Tesla. Ignoring its ludicrous valuation, cars are not the same as big tech.

In technology being big is its own advantage - the more adopted Amazon/AWS is, or the more people are on Facebook then more more that confers benefits to the existing users, so scale becomes a very powerful moat.

In cars, mass production has the opposite effect. Nobody aspires to own a Ford or a Toyota because of what it says about the owner. In automobile market you aspire to luxury brands. Therefore as Tesla grows to justify the lofty market expectations that are placed on it and their models become more widespread, the lure of owning a Tesla loses its appeal. Success will be its own downfall.

Tesla may be the market leader in electric motors, but their know-how will be difficult to maintain in such a competitive industry.

I aspire to own a Toyota Tacoma :shrug:
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: JLee on July 02, 2020, 10:59:14 AM
I can't see a legitimate bull case for Tesla. Ignoring its ludicrous valuation, cars are not the same as big tech.

In technology being big is its own advantage - the more adopted Amazon/AWS is, or the more people are on Facebook then more more that confers benefits to the existing users, so scale becomes a very powerful moat.

In cars, mass production has the opposite effect. Nobody aspires to own a Ford or a Toyota because of what it says about the owner. In automobile market you aspire to luxury brands. Therefore as Tesla grows to justify the lofty market expectations that are placed on it and their models become more widespread, the lure of owning a Tesla loses its appeal. Success will be its own downfall.

Tesla may be the market leader in electric motors, but their know-how will be difficult to maintain in such a competitive industry.

It's way more than just motors.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Tesla-teardown-finds-electronics-6-years-ahead-of-Toyota-and-VW2
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on July 05, 2020, 08:19:04 AM

If Tesla bets the company on the Cybertruck, then it could have problems.  Ford sells 900k F-150 a year, and has an all-electric version planned.  Elon Musk has targetted people like him with cars, which works.  I don't think he'll figure out what F-150 and Ram pickup truck owners like... and Ford already has an all-electric F-150 in the works.  Probably a steeper uphill battle than Tesla realizes.

Yep, only 650,000 preorders for the Cybertruck which will be far more rugged than any current thin-skinned painted pretty pickup truck. Definitely in trouble there...
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ender on July 05, 2020, 08:33:16 AM

If Tesla bets the company on the Cybertruck, then it could have problems.  Ford sells 900k F-150 a year, and has an all-electric version planned.  Elon Musk has targetted people like him with cars, which works.  I don't think he'll figure out what F-150 and Ram pickup truck owners like... and Ford already has an all-electric F-150 in the works.  Probably a steeper uphill battle than Tesla realizes.

Yep, only 650,000 preorders for the Cybertruck which will be far more rugged than any current thin-skinned painted pretty pickup truck. Definitely in trouble there...

I have family who are uh, let's just say not exactly fans of Tesla/electric energy/etc but are super excited about the Cybertruck.

This includes someone who has owned 4 different pickups in the last 10 years (all newish, including F150s).

People who think that no one will want the Cybertruck are making bold statements which I do not think are backed by reality. The price point of the Cybertruck and its features are very competitive.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on July 05, 2020, 09:05:38 AM

If Tesla bets the company on the Cybertruck, then it could have problems.  Ford sells 900k F-150 a year, and has an all-electric version planned.  Elon Musk has targetted people like him with cars, which works.  I don't think he'll figure out what F-150 and Ram pickup truck owners like... and Ford already has an all-electric F-150 in the works.  Probably a steeper uphill battle than Tesla realizes.
Yep, only 650,000 preorders for the Cybertruck which will be far more rugged than any current thin-skinned painted pretty pickup truck. Definitely in trouble there...
"will be" sounds like counting chickens before they hatch.  That leads to situations where someone throws an object at a window during it's first public appearance, and the window unexpectedly cracks.  What you've heard, and what "will be", are two different things.

I would also point out that it's unclear if the Tesla 3 is profitable.  Producing a lot of something that isn't profitable might not be sustainable.  That may not be true for China and Germany, but the question is if Tesla can keep ahead of competition.

For the next few years, my guess is "yes".  By the time they make Cybertrucks, who knows.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: waltworks on July 05, 2020, 10:20:18 AM
The window breaking was a publicity coup, though. A crapton of people who would never have heard of the damn thing were talking about the cybertruck.

Now, I have no plans to buy one, but if there's an "any publicity is good publicity" moment, that was it.

-W
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DarkandStormy on July 05, 2020, 10:51:31 AM

If Tesla bets the company on the Cybertruck, then it could have problems.  Ford sells 900k F-150 a year, and has an all-electric version planned.  Elon Musk has targetted people like him with cars, which works.  I don't think he'll figure out what F-150 and Ram pickup truck owners like... and Ford already has an all-electric F-150 in the works.  Probably a steeper uphill battle than Tesla realizes.

Yep, only 650,000 preorders for the Cybertruck which will be far more rugged than any current thin-skinned painted pretty pickup truck. Definitely in trouble there...

Pre-order deposits are $100. Not exactly telling about how many will fulfill orders.

They had a 24+% cancellation rate with the Model 3 pre-orders.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: The_Big_H on July 05, 2020, 10:19:48 PM
The window breaking was a publicity coup, though. A crapton of people who would never have heard of the damn thing were talking about the cybertruck.

Now, I have no plans to buy one, but if there's an "any publicity is good publicity" moment, that was it.

-W

There are those of us cynical enough to think it was staged and intentional (much like, say, I think that peloton ad was intended to be just controversial enough to start people talking about it).
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: talltexan on July 06, 2020, 06:25:50 AM
I can't see a legitimate bull case for Tesla. Ignoring its ludicrous valuation, cars are not the same as big tech.

In technology being big is its own advantage - the more adopted Amazon/AWS is, or the more people are on Facebook then more more that confers benefits to the existing users, so scale becomes a very powerful moat.

In cars, mass production has the opposite effect. Nobody aspires to own a Ford or a Toyota because of what it says about the owner. In automobile market you aspire to luxury brands. Therefore as Tesla grows to justify the lofty market expectations that are placed on it and their models become more widespread, the lure of owning a Tesla loses its appeal. Success will be its own downfall.

Tesla may be the market leader in electric motors, but their know-how will be difficult to maintain in such a competitive industry.

I had a dream a few years ago in which both my cars got stolen, but the insurance agent gave me as much money as I wanted to replace them. I bought a Honda Accord.

I must not be a car guy. Hopefully at least I fit in around here :-)
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on July 06, 2020, 06:31:00 AM

If Tesla bets the company on the Cybertruck, then it could have problems.  Ford sells 900k F-150 a year, and has an all-electric version planned.  Elon Musk has targetted people like him with cars, which works.  I don't think he'll figure out what F-150 and Ram pickup truck owners like... and Ford already has an all-electric F-150 in the works.  Probably a steeper uphill battle than Tesla realizes.
Yep, only 650,000 preorders for the Cybertruck which will be far more rugged than any current thin-skinned painted pretty pickup truck. Definitely in trouble there...
"will be" sounds like counting chickens before they hatch.  That leads to situations where someone throws an object at a window during it's first public appearance, and the window unexpectedly cracks.  What you've heard, and what "will be", are two different things.

I would also point out that it's unclear if the Tesla 3 is profitable.  Producing a lot of something that isn't profitable might not be sustainable.  That may not be true for China and Germany, but the question is if Tesla can keep ahead of competition.

For the next few years, my guess is "yes".  By the time they make Cybertrucks, who knows.

You do realize these arguments are years old and a decade old respectively?

Heard all the same about preorders on the Model 3, and here it is the best selling EV in the world. The "Tesla isn't profitable" has been going on longer (nevermind that the last 3 quarters they posted a profit, despite the pandemic shutdown...)
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DarkandStormy on July 06, 2020, 10:18:11 AM

If Tesla bets the company on the Cybertruck, then it could have problems.  Ford sells 900k F-150 a year, and has an all-electric version planned.  Elon Musk has targetted people like him with cars, which works.  I don't think he'll figure out what F-150 and Ram pickup truck owners like... and Ford already has an all-electric F-150 in the works.  Probably a steeper uphill battle than Tesla realizes.
Yep, only 650,000 preorders for the Cybertruck which will be far more rugged than any current thin-skinned painted pretty pickup truck. Definitely in trouble there...
"will be" sounds like counting chickens before they hatch.  That leads to situations where someone throws an object at a window during it's first public appearance, and the window unexpectedly cracks.  What you've heard, and what "will be", are two different things.

I would also point out that it's unclear if the Tesla 3 is profitable.  Producing a lot of something that isn't profitable might not be sustainable.  That may not be true for China and Germany, but the question is if Tesla can keep ahead of competition.

For the next few years, my guess is "yes".  By the time they make Cybertrucks, who knows.

You do realize these arguments are years old and a decade old respectively?

Heard all the same about preorders on the Model 3, and here it is the best selling EV in the world. The "Tesla isn't profitable" has been going on longer (nevermind that the last 3 quarters they posted a profit, despite the pandemic shutdown...)

A company currently worth ~$246bn has eeked out $264m in earnings the last 9 months.  Buy, buy, buy!
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: waltworks on July 06, 2020, 10:38:02 AM
A company currently worth ~$246bn has eeked out $264m in earnings the last 9 months.  Buy, buy, buy!

Sure, but you could have for years made the same argument about Amazon. People who bought the stock because they thought the business model/company were going to dominate weren't looking at earnings, they were looking a decade+ ahead.

I didn't invest in Amazon (except in index funds) back in the day, and I'm not investing in Tesla now. But if you are a Tesla diehard and expect Tesla tech/batteries/influence to dominate the car market in the future, earnings are mostly irrelevant.

-W
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: theoverlook on July 06, 2020, 12:03:10 PM

An analysis Elon Musk called "the best analysis to date" concluded the Tesla 3 cost $18,000 in materials and $10,000 in labor costs.  In the U.S., it doesn't seem like Tesla 3s have much of a profit margin (if any, after paying for dealerships and the like).


I'm curious about this claim. The model 3 starts at (base price) $38,000. A cost of $28,000 puts it at a much higher profit margin than other automakers. I don't know a lot about the auto industry but a quick search on automaker's margins shows a 13% - 21% gross margin. The $10k profit on a $38k model 3 is 26% gross margin, and that's the base model. Higher models have higher margin.

Tesla owns their dealerships. That's also gross vs gross comparison, so for the main line auto makers the same costs (or more!) would apply.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: robartsd on July 08, 2020, 08:45:52 AM
I'm curious about this claim. The model 3 starts at (base price) $38,000. A cost of $28,000 puts it at a much higher profit margin than other automakers. I don't know a lot about the auto industry but a quick search on automaker's margins shows a 13% - 21% gross margin. The $10k profit on a $38k model 3 is 26% gross margin, and that's the base model. Higher models have higher margin.

Tesla owns their dealerships. That's also gross vs gross comparison, so for the main line auto makers the same costs (or more!) would apply.
This does make the assumption that Tesla's ownership of the dealerships is a cost advantage over the main line auto maker model. It could very well be that independent dealerships operate significantly more efficiently than Tesla's dealer network.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: JLee on July 08, 2020, 09:05:18 AM
I'm curious about this claim. The model 3 starts at (base price) $38,000. A cost of $28,000 puts it at a much higher profit margin than other automakers. I don't know a lot about the auto industry but a quick search on automaker's margins shows a 13% - 21% gross margin. The $10k profit on a $38k model 3 is 26% gross margin, and that's the base model. Higher models have higher margin.

Tesla owns their dealerships. That's also gross vs gross comparison, so for the main line auto makers the same costs (or more!) would apply.
This does make the assumption that Tesla's ownership of the dealerships is a cost advantage over the main line auto maker model. It could very well be that independent dealerships operate significantly more efficiently than Tesla's dealer network.

I doubt it - building new from the ground up has an inherent efficiency advantage.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: talltexan on July 09, 2020, 02:55:00 PM
A problem of the legacy automaker dealerships is that they're largely determined by how the country was laid out in the middle part of the last century. Regulatory drag made it very costly to move them since then and created all sorts of local monopolies.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on July 10, 2020, 02:37:03 PM
Well, that was an unexpected week.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on July 10, 2020, 02:45:48 PM

If Tesla bets the company on the Cybertruck, then it could have problems.  Ford sells 900k F-150 a year, and has an all-electric version planned.  Elon Musk has targetted people like him with cars, which works.  I don't think he'll figure out what F-150 and Ram pickup truck owners like... and Ford already has an all-electric F-150 in the works.  Probably a steeper uphill battle than Tesla realizes.
Yep, only 650,000 preorders for the Cybertruck which will be far more rugged than any current thin-skinned painted pretty pickup truck. Definitely in trouble there...
"will be" sounds like counting chickens before they hatch.  That leads to situations where someone throws an object at a window during it's first public appearance, and the window unexpectedly cracks.  What you've heard, and what "will be", are two different things.

I would also point out that it's unclear if the Tesla 3 is profitable.  Producing a lot of something that isn't profitable might not be sustainable.  That may not be true for China and Germany, but the question is if Tesla can keep ahead of competition.

For the next few years, my guess is "yes".  By the time they make Cybertrucks, who knows.
You do realize these arguments are years old and a decade old respectively?

Heard all the same about preorders on the Model 3, and here it is the best selling EV in the world. The "Tesla isn't profitable" has been going on longer (nevermind that the last 3 quarters they posted a profit, despite the pandemic shutdown...)
You're claiming that profitability is an "argument" that can be settled once 10 years ago.  That's not how capitalism works - companies need to show they're profitable constantly, not one time 10 years ago.

Tesla has a forward P/E ratio between 256 (Yahoo Finance) and 435 (Morningstar), neither of which I would call profitable.  What is Tesla being compared against that justifies those valuations?
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/key-statistics?p=TSLA
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnas/tsla/valuation
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on July 10, 2020, 05:35:31 PM

If Tesla bets the company on the Cybertruck, then it could have problems.  Ford sells 900k F-150 a year, and has an all-electric version planned.  Elon Musk has targetted people like him with cars, which works.  I don't think he'll figure out what F-150 and Ram pickup truck owners like... and Ford already has an all-electric F-150 in the works.  Probably a steeper uphill battle than Tesla realizes.
Yep, only 650,000 preorders for the Cybertruck which will be far more rugged than any current thin-skinned painted pretty pickup truck. Definitely in trouble there...
"will be" sounds like counting chickens before they hatch.  That leads to situations where someone throws an object at a window during it's first public appearance, and the window unexpectedly cracks.  What you've heard, and what "will be", are two different things.

I would also point out that it's unclear if the Tesla 3 is profitable.  Producing a lot of something that isn't profitable might not be sustainable.  That may not be true for China and Germany, but the question is if Tesla can keep ahead of competition.

For the next few years, my guess is "yes".  By the time they make Cybertrucks, who knows.
You do realize these arguments are years old and a decade old respectively?

Heard all the same about preorders on the Model 3, and here it is the best selling EV in the world. The "Tesla isn't profitable" has been going on longer (nevermind that the last 3 quarters they posted a profit, despite the pandemic shutdown...)
You're claiming that profitability is an "argument" that can be settled once 10 years ago.  That's not how capitalism works - companies need to show they're profitable constantly, not one time 10 years ago.

Tesla has a forward P/E ratio between 256 (Yahoo Finance) and 435 (Morningstar), neither of which I would call profitable.  What is Tesla being compared against that justifies those valuations?
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/key-statistics?p=TSLA
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnas/tsla/valuation

750k production runrate, $50k asp at 25% margins. Soon to be 1 m+ when Shanghai phase 2 is complete this winter. Berlin and Austin factories starting in 2021 (early and late respectively). + Energy. Those projections don't include moonshot products and services.

If I believed Yahoo, I'd agree with you but it's a difficult way to invest in a company. Read the 10qs, follow their news, etc. and make your own valuations. I said above $2k/share by Q1 above. There has been one from Wedbush and one from Morgan Stanley at that price since. Maybe Yahoo is right but they give zero rational behind that projection. So it's meaningless to me.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: aspiringnomad on July 10, 2020, 05:45:17 PM
Buying TSLA shares is a great idea. But only if your goal is to learn what it feels like to have a stock you own go to zero in a bankruptcy. It's the single best short in a market full of overvalued companies. The unsecured bondholders will also lose most of their money (and bondholders have to get 100% of their money back before shareholders get a penny). I think the odds of bankruptcy this year are over 10% and over 70% by the end of next year. They will lose about $1 billion this quarter, and the same next quarter, and will lose at least $500 million per quarter even if they eventually can start making 5000 Model 3's per week (which I don't think they can do until next year, even if they are still in business).

The stock price got so out of control because of incredibly naive people who have no idea what they are doing with investing, but did listen to the media worship and maniacal proclamations from Musk (who routinely intentionally misleads investors in order to separate them from their cash). People are going to lose enormous amounts of money as reality hits. Don't be one of those people.

Tesla beat the over 70% odds of bankruptcy stacked against it last year. I wonder what the odds of bankruptcy are this year.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: The_Big_H on July 10, 2020, 09:53:51 PM
I could not help but notice.

Market Cap Tesla = $285B

Market Cap Ford + GM = $60B.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on July 10, 2020, 11:50:12 PM

If Tesla bets the company on the Cybertruck, then it could have problems.  Ford sells 900k F-150 a year, and has an all-electric version planned.  Elon Musk has targetted people like him with cars, which works.  I don't think he'll figure out what F-150 and Ram pickup truck owners like... and Ford already has an all-electric F-150 in the works.  Probably a steeper uphill battle than Tesla realizes.
Yep, only 650,000 preorders for the Cybertruck which will be far more rugged than any current thin-skinned painted pretty pickup truck. Definitely in trouble there...
"will be" sounds like counting chickens before they hatch.  That leads to situations where someone throws an object at a window during it's first public appearance, and the window unexpectedly cracks.  What you've heard, and what "will be", are two different things.

I would also point out that it's unclear if the Tesla 3 is profitable.  Producing a lot of something that isn't profitable might not be sustainable.  That may not be true for China and Germany, but the question is if Tesla can keep ahead of competition.

For the next few years, my guess is "yes".  By the time they make Cybertrucks, who knows.
You do realize these arguments are years old and a decade old respectively?

Heard all the same about preorders on the Model 3, and here it is the best selling EV in the world. The "Tesla isn't profitable" has been going on longer (nevermind that the last 3 quarters they posted a profit, despite the pandemic shutdown...)
You're claiming that profitability is an "argument" that can be settled once 10 years ago.  That's not how capitalism works - companies need to show they're profitable constantly, not one time 10 years ago.

Tesla has a forward P/E ratio between 256 (Yahoo Finance) and 435 (Morningstar), neither of which I would call profitable.  What is Tesla being compared against that justifies those valuations?
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/key-statistics?p=TSLA
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnas/tsla/valuation
750k production runrate, $50k asp at 25% margins. Soon to be 1 m+ when Shanghai phase 2 is complete this winter. Berlin and Austin factories starting in 2021 (early and late respectively). + Energy. Those projections don't include moonshot products and services.

If I believed Yahoo, I'd agree with you but it's a difficult way to invest in a company. Read the 10qs, follow their news, etc. and make your own valuations. I said above $2k/share by Q1 above. There has been one from Wedbush and one from Morgan Stanley at that price since. Maybe Yahoo is right but they give zero rational behind that projection. So it's meaningless to me.
Your view depends on ignoring financial data from both Yahoo Finance and Morningstar?
What company should Tesla be compared against to justify 256 and 435 P/E ratios?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on July 11, 2020, 05:41:17 AM
Those are forward P/E which means those are their analysts projections. Yes, I ignore those because I make my own valuations when I invest in a company. Also because they're short term. Tesla is not mature company.

Look at any growth stock's Forward P/E as they funnel equity and would be profits back into future product growth. It's so short term and, more importantly, unexplained that it's a meaningless number to me. Maybe it works for you and that's great. Unless they explain the sales, expenses, asp, etc, I don't understand how they arrive at their projections anyways.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on July 11, 2020, 08:19:40 AM
Your view depends on ignoring financial data from both Yahoo Finance and Morningstar?
What company should Tesla be compared against to justify 256 and 435 P/E ratios?

Sounds like you're the one ignoring financial data by focusing on a single parameter rather than the big picture.

It's expensive to scale up production in a capital-intensive industry. Tesla has been roughly doubling production every 2 years.

Growth is worth something. Likely to be a bit low this year because pandemic - but 2Q for Tesla was better than the fossil car manufacturers.

You should also look at EBITDA and other measures of a company's performance.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: PaulMaxime on July 11, 2020, 09:10:57 AM

You're claiming that profitability is an "argument" that can be settled once 10 years ago.  That's not how capitalism works - companies need to show they're profitable constantly, not one time 10 years ago.

Tesla has a forward P/E ratio between 256 (Yahoo Finance) and 435 (Morningstar), neither of which I would call profitable.  What is Tesla being compared against that justifies those valuations?
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/key-statistics?p=TSLA
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnas/tsla/valuation

If low P/E is your jam then I don't think Tesla will ever be something you'll invest in. Nothing wrong with that value investing can be very profitable. The company is going to invest every dollar of cash flow in growing their production capacity and in lowering prices over time. Management is going to run this thing as close to the edge as they can get away with for as long as possible to meet their mission.

They take the "accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy" mission very seriously.

I think the only reason they care about profits right now is that they want to get included in the S&P 500 which would be a huge boost to their valuation. As long as cash flow is strong profits are really not that important - you end up being taxed on them and unless you pay dividends what's the point if you have large ambitions?

 To reach their goal they need many more than the 4 existing factories (Fremont, Reno, Shanghai, Buffalo) the 2 under construction (Shanghai and Berlin) and the forthcoming ones (Maybe Texas or Oklahoma?) so I don't expect the investment to slow down any time soon. They have a stated goal to grow 50% per year.

This type of corporate investment is not unprecedented. Take a look at Amazon which still has a P/E of over 150. Amazon also invests most of its cash flow in growing their business and it's definitely a choice. They really only started throwing off lots of profit once AWS became a big deal. People have been shouting that AMZN is way overvalued for a very long time and their stock has pretty much gone straight up.

I've been an investor in Tesla since 2012 at ~$34 a share and am comfortable holding the stock now above $1500 (and my largest position at ~10%). It's going to fluctuate a lot from here both up and down. Has the valuation gotten ahead of itself? Maybe. But the stock went nowhere while the company continued to grow from less than 20,000 cars per year to around 500,000 this year.

They are growing market share while the legacy auto makers are losing theirs, are saddled with huge debt and pension obligations an outdated dealer network and huge investments in "buggy whip" ICE technology that will only slow them down.

P/E is a backward looking instrument. The market is forward looking. TSLA is definitely more risky here at 1500 than it was at 200 for sure but I'm holding on for the next 10 years where I believe that they will be much bigger than they are today.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on July 12, 2020, 06:25:08 AM
Tesla has a forward P/E ratio between 256 (Yahoo Finance) and 435 (Morningstar) ...
If low P/E is your jam then I don't think Tesla will ever be something you'll invest in. Nothing wrong with that value investing can be very profitable ...
This type of corporate investment is not unprecedented. Take a look at Amazon which still has a P/E of over 150 ...
P/E is a backward looking instrument ...
I don't think forward P/E is a "backward looking instrument".
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/forwardpe.asp
"Forward price-to-earnings (forward P/E) is a version of the ratio of price-to-earnings (P/E) that uses forecasted earnings for the P/E calculation."

I disagree that a forward P/E of 345 (average of Yahoo and Morningstar) is "low P/E".  A hint that you're wrong is in your example, where even Amazon has a forward P/E of 149.25.  Amazon is the #3 holding in Vanguard Growth ETF, with the other two being Microsoft (fwd P/E 34.1) and Apple (fwd P/E 25.5).  I can keep pointing to growth stocks which have forward P/E below 345, if you want to argue about "value" vs "growth" stocks.

So I think you're wrong about P/E:  Tesla's forward P/E ratio is extreme.  You call everything below 345 "low P/E", even though almost all of the S&P 500 would be "low P/E" by that usage.

It's also interesting that nobody in favor of Tesla compares it to other automobile makers.  I ask repeatedly which company should Tesla be compared to, and the only answer I've gotten is Amazon.  Tesla, the car maker, should be compared to Amazon, the online sales giant.  Which again, to me makes no sense.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on July 12, 2020, 07:45:12 AM
  I ask repeatedly which company should Tesla be compared to, and the only answer I've gotten is Amazon.  Tesla, the car maker, should be compared to Amazon, the online sales giant.  Which again, to me makes no sense.

Okay, which other car manufacturers are very heavily or exclusively BEV with a growth rate similar to Tesla? Fossil cars are D-E-A-D going forward. There are bans all over the world - just with a delay to allow transition to cleaner technologies.

A: A few Chinese manufacturers, but they're not (individually) at Tesla's scale or market reach. They also don't have the battery development, stationary storage or autonomous driving experience Tesla does.

Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ender on July 12, 2020, 08:29:36 AM
  I ask repeatedly which company should Tesla be compared to, and the only answer I've gotten is Amazon.  Tesla, the car maker, should be compared to Amazon, the online sales giant.  Which again, to me makes no sense.

Okay, which other car manufacturers are very heavily or exclusively BEV with a growth rate similar to Tesla? Fossil cars are D-E-A-D going forward. There are bans all over the world - just with a delay to allow transition to cleaner technologies.

A: A few Chinese manufacturers, but they're not (individually) at Tesla's scale or market reach. They also don't have the battery development, stationary storage or autonomous driving experience Tesla does.

Exactly. I don't really understand the fixation on P/E with stocks for companies that are obviously aggressively growing in marketshare.

If P/E was the only thing that mattered, 99% of startups would never get investment money (even/especially pre-IPO, where most startups hemorrhage money, so even if P/E isn't a thing practically the same idea applies). Who would invest money in a company that loses money!?

People expect that long term, Tesla is positioned incredibly well for profitability and growth/domination in the electric vehicle market (and other areas).
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on July 12, 2020, 08:42:53 AM
Tesla has a forward P/E ratio between 256 (Yahoo Finance) and 435 (Morningstar) ...
If low P/E is your jam then I don't think Tesla will ever be something you'll invest in. Nothing wrong with that value investing can be very profitable ...
This type of corporate investment is not unprecedented. Take a look at Amazon which still has a P/E of over 150 ...
P/E is a backward looking instrument ...
I don't think forward P/E is a "backward looking instrument".
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/forwardpe.asp
"Forward price-to-earnings (forward P/E) is a version of the ratio of price-to-earnings (P/E) that uses forecasted earnings for the P/E calculation."

I disagree that a forward P/E of 345 (average of Yahoo and Morningstar) is "low P/E".  A hint that you're wrong is in your example, where even Amazon has a forward P/E of 149.25.  Amazon is the #3 holding in Vanguard Growth ETF, with the other two being Microsoft (fwd P/E 34.1) and Apple (fwd P/E 25.5).  I can keep pointing to growth stocks which have forward P/E below 345, if you want to argue about "value" vs "growth" stocks.

So I think you're wrong about P/E:  Tesla's forward P/E ratio is extreme.  You call everything below 345 "low P/E", even though almost all of the S&P 500 would be "low P/E" by that usage.

It's also interesting that nobody in favor of Tesla compares it to other automobile makers.  I ask repeatedly which company should Tesla be compared to, and the only answer I've gotten is Amazon.  Tesla, the car maker, should be compared to Amazon, the online sales giant.  Which again, to me makes no sense.

Well, we disagree then. Tesla is a disruptor of older industries. If you want to find a comparable company, you won't. And you won't find forecasted P/E answers you want especially if you won't go the extra mile to create your own valuations. Good luck in your investments.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: PaulMaxime on July 12, 2020, 08:53:53 AM

So I think you're wrong about P/E:  Tesla's forward P/E ratio is extreme.  You call everything below 345 "low P/E", even though almost all of the S&P 500 would be "low P/E" by that usage.

It's also interesting that nobody in favor of Tesla compares it to other automobile makers.  I ask repeatedly which company should Tesla be compared to, and the only answer I've gotten is Amazon.  Tesla, the car maker, should be compared to Amazon, the online sales giant.  Which again, to me makes no sense.

I didn't say that anything below 345 was low p/e. I said that if you invest based on p/e AT ALL then Tesla is not for you. I don't care about P/E at all for rapidly growing companies that are investing all their cash flow in growing their business. Cash generation, revenue growth, and vision is what I look for.

The comparison with Amazon is because Amazon has for years invested nearly all their cash flow rather than turning it in to profits. Profits that don't matter at all if you have a better place for the money.

There are lots of different styles of investing. I like to look for fast growing companies that are looking to the future. Other people want stable businesses with large profits. Both are valid. Tesla is just not for you.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: v8rx7guy on July 13, 2020, 09:04:25 AM
TSLA still kicking ass and taking names.  Wish my total stock fund had more than 0.4% TSLA in it...
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: theoverlook on July 13, 2020, 12:22:11 PM
Buying TSLA shares is a great idea. But only if your goal is to learn what it feels like to have a stock you own go to zero in a bankruptcy. It's the single best short in a market full of overvalued companies. The unsecured bondholders will also lose most of their money (and bondholders have to get 100% of their money back before shareholders get a penny). I think the odds of bankruptcy this year are over 10% and over 70% by the end of next year. They will lose about $1 billion this quarter, and the same next quarter, and will lose at least $500 million per quarter even if they eventually can start making 5000 Model 3's per week (which I don't think they can do until next year, even if they are still in business).

The stock price got so out of control because of incredibly naive people who have no idea what they are doing with investing, but did listen to the media worship and maniacal proclamations from Musk (who routinely intentionally misleads investors in order to separate them from their cash). People are going to lose enormous amounts of money as reality hits. Don't be one of those people.

Tesla beat the over 70% odds of bankruptcy stacked against it last year. I wonder what the odds of bankruptcy are this year.
Ha! That post has aged very poorly. TSLA closed 3/26/2018 at $266.13, and is $1,594.30 as we speak. Hope nobody made big decisions based on that sentiment. Shorting anything is dangerous; shorting TSLA has been catastrophic.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: talltexan on July 13, 2020, 12:35:55 PM
I have to admit, I've been wrong about Tesla so far, and only saved from shorting it by the remarkable premium that the market demands for put options. For the jumps in share price this season look...cartoonish. I'm reminded of something like $GBTC three years ago when I see them. They suggest such a possible variation in future outcomes, that I cannot feel good about a long position, either.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ChpBstrd on July 13, 2020, 01:50:24 PM
What does it mean to be "wrong" about a stock like this?

If evidence, reason, and analysis show a stock should go up to $5, and it goes to $100 instead, we tend to say there was something wrong with the evidence, reason, and analysis. We don't tend to say the market was wrong. We also refuse to say the outcomes of evidence, reason, and analysis have little if anything to do with stock prices. We believe efficient markets hypothesis so deeply that we can only blame ourselves for not doing the obvious thing by putting 100% of our portfolio into TSLA a couple of years ago, and yet we look at the price today and say it is correctly priced because of EMH. The system is both rational and it can be gamed, we just know it!

Similarly, what does it mean to be "right" about a stock like this?

Is the doofus on wallstreetbets who put his life savings all into TSLA a couple years ago and who is now FIREd smarter than the rest of us? Is he smarter than the people who bet almost everything on pets.com and netscape in 1999?

I'm questioning the entire way we talk about investing. It's a lot more like gambling than a lot of us would like to admit.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: sherr on July 13, 2020, 01:55:40 PM
I'm questioning the entire way we talk about investing. It's a lot more like gambling than a lot of us would like to admit.

Really? Investing in individual stocks has always been likened to gambling by the vast majority of people here. To the point where the people who do pursue individual investments jokingly refer to themselves as "heretics".

Don't be one of those doofuses; invest in broad indexes. Pay attention to asset allocation, not individual investments. This seems pretty standard advice.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ChpBstrd on July 13, 2020, 02:07:08 PM
I'm questioning the entire way we talk about investing. It's a lot more like gambling than a lot of us would like to admit.

Really? Investing in individual stocks has always been likened to gambling by the vast majority of people here. To the point where the people who do pursue individual investments jokingly refer to themselves as "heretics".

Don't be one of those doofuses; invest in broad indexes. Pay attention to asset allocation, not individual investments. This seems pretty standard advice.

So no individual stock is "a good investment" compared to index funds? I'm entertaining the idea. It jives with decades of efficient frontier research. We just happen to live in a time when people are getting rich quick on bubble investments like bitcoin and TSLA.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: sherr on July 13, 2020, 02:30:42 PM
So no individual stock is "a good investment" compared to index funds? I'm entertaining the idea. It jives with decades of efficient frontier research. We just happen to live in a time when people are getting rich quick on bubble investments like bitcoin and TSLA.

The argument isn't that there aren't any actual "good investments", just that doofuses like me and you are too doofusy to distinguish which is which. I know I certainly am, I would never have invested in TSLA 2 years ago, and that was the exact same time I was buying one of their cars! Insert "it is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future" and "the market can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent" and similar platitudes here.

And that chasing individual "good investments" is overall a fool's errand because - lacking that ability - you'll just come out at or behind where the index arrives anyway, only with a lot more volatility and personal risk of losing everything along the way.

I mean yeah I get it, I'm jealous of the guy on reddit that turned $30k in his ROTH IRA into $1MM over three months too. But we all know that for every one-in-a-million guy like that, there's also the 999,999 people who didn't win and don't post to brag about it.

And then add in the effects of missing the 10 best days (https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/04/11/what-happens-when-you-miss-the-best-days-in-the-st.aspx), which you are of course much more likely to do if you're trying to time the market and/or transferring things around in individual stocks than if you're a set-it-and-forget-it automatic long-term indexer.

Long-term indexing isn't gambling, because everyone wins at it! Investing in or shorting TSLA? Both of those options seem nuts!
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: theoverlook on July 14, 2020, 07:49:26 AM
We just happen to live in a time when people are getting rich quick on bubble investments like bitcoin and TSLA.
Is there ever a time when that wasn't true? Sure the specific investments change but there's always been speculative high risk high potential reward investments. Most of them fizzle out, some don't.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on July 14, 2020, 10:15:56 AM
For me personally, Tesla has accomplished 25-30 years of equivalent index investing in a few years time. I've just used my superpowers as naive accountant to forecast valuations of individual companies, resulting in me retiring years earlier compared to when I only bought an index. I'm a heretic just as likely to be called an idiot during 50% downturns (Jan 2019 - July 2019) or 65% downturns ( Feb 2020 - Mar 2020) or lucky like during large upswings such as now. We don't need to get into an individual stock vs index fund argument. Plenty of that elsewhere. Research your own securities. Or don't.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ChpBstrd on July 14, 2020, 11:17:09 AM
We just happen to live in a time when people are getting rich quick on bubble investments like bitcoin and TSLA.
Is there ever a time when that wasn't true? Sure the specific investments change but there's always been speculative high risk high potential reward investments. Most of them fizzle out, some don't.

2000-2003 and 2006-2009 come to mind. Of course, speculative short positions might have done well at that time.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: londonstache on July 15, 2020, 02:52:07 AM
If I was asked to place a bet on what I think will be Tesla's biggest earner in the future, I believe it will be battery storage technology and not EVs. In the same way that AWS is the biggest contributor to Amazon profits, not online retailing.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: PaulMaxime on July 15, 2020, 09:34:40 AM
For me personally, Tesla has accomplished 25-30 years of equivalent index investing in a few years time. I've just used my superpowers as naive accountant to forecast valuations of individual companies, resulting in me retiring years earlier compared to when I only bought an index. I'm a heretic just as likely to be called an idiot during 50% downturns (Jan 2019 - July 2019) or 65% downturns ( Feb 2020 - Mar 2020) or lucky like during large upswings such as now. We don't need to get into an individual stock vs index fund argument. Plenty of that elsewhere. Research your own securities. Or don't.

Truly. I have a diversified portfolio of individual equities and I have more than twice what I would have if I indexed. I'm pretty lucky. Tesla is a part of that portfolio.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: The_Big_H on July 15, 2020, 03:03:56 PM
For me personally, Tesla has accomplished 25-30 years of equivalent index investing in a few years time. I've just used my superpowers as naive accountant to forecast valuations of individual companies, resulting in me retiring years earlier compared to when I only bought an index. I'm a heretic just as likely to be called an idiot during 50% downturns (Jan 2019 - July 2019) or 65% downturns ( Feb 2020 - Mar 2020) or lucky like during large upswings such as now. We don't need to get into an individual stock vs index fund argument. Plenty of that elsewhere. Research your own securities. Or don't.

Truly. I have a diversified portfolio of individual equities and I have more than twice what I would have if I indexed. I'm pretty lucky. Tesla is a part of that portfolio.

If you can make twice the market consistently with your investing/stock picking skills you should probably stop whatever you are doing and start a hedgefund and become a billionaire.  That kind of skill is a billion dollar gift you should use it.

Otherwise, some less than charitable mustachians might attribute this as luck rather than skill.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: PaulMaxime on July 15, 2020, 09:22:54 PM
For me personally, Tesla has accomplished 25-30 years of equivalent index investing in a few years time. I've just used my superpowers as naive accountant to forecast valuations of individual companies, resulting in me retiring years earlier compared to when I only bought an index. I'm a heretic just as likely to be called an idiot during 50% downturns (Jan 2019 - July 2019) or 65% downturns ( Feb 2020 - Mar 2020) or lucky like during large upswings such as now. We don't need to get into an individual stock vs index fund argument. Plenty of that elsewhere. Research your own securities. Or don't.

Truly. I have a diversified portfolio of individual equities and I have more than twice what I would have if I indexed. I'm pretty lucky. Tesla is a part of that portfolio.

If you can make twice the market consistently with your investing/stock picking skills you should probably stop whatever you are doing and start a hedgefund and become a billionaire.  That kind of skill is a billion dollar gift you should use it.

Otherwise, some less than charitable mustachians might attribute this as luck rather than skill.

I'm not opposed to the fact that I've been lucky for sure. Can't hardly believe it myself but I've been tracking my returns against the S&P 500 total return index since 2007.

Equal parts luck, getting good advice and a decent grasp on keeping my emotions under control. Buy and hold, add to my winners, don't let the noise of the market get to you.

Managing other people's money is a whole different ball game. The fact that I'm small and I don't have to answer to anyone except myself are huge factors in my returns.

Having clients that are breathing down your neck about the most recent quarter never helped anyone invest well.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on July 16, 2020, 06:20:38 AM
For me personally, Tesla has accomplished 25-30 years of equivalent index investing in a few years time. I've just used my superpowers as naive accountant to forecast valuations of individual companies, resulting in me retiring years earlier compared to when I only bought an index. I'm a heretic just as likely to be called an idiot during 50% downturns (Jan 2019 - July 2019) or 65% downturns ( Feb 2020 - Mar 2020) or lucky like during large upswings such as now. We don't need to get into an individual stock vs index fund argument. Plenty of that elsewhere. Research your own securities. Or don't.

Truly. I have a diversified portfolio of individual equities and I have more than twice what I would have if I indexed. I'm pretty lucky. Tesla is a part of that portfolio.

If you can make twice the market consistently with your investing/stock picking skills you should probably stop whatever you are doing and start a hedgefund and become a billionaire.  That kind of skill is a billion dollar gift you should use it.

Otherwise, some less than charitable mustachians might attribute this as luck rather than skill.

I don't believe I have the skill to do that. I would make the hasty prediction I've never encountered anyone who does. Investing billions moves stock prices and markets. That's a completely different way of planning compared to investing small amounts of money. Nor do I have the skill to sell and raise capital, manage a large team, or know the regulations required to start and operate a hedge fund. I would say, perhaps, those less charitable mustachians and bloggers don't actually know everything about investing. That, maybe, believing you're incapable of learning about business and finding companies worth your investment is a potent reason why you haven't.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: waltworks on July 16, 2020, 08:53:59 AM
I don't believe I have the skill to do that. I would make the hasty prediction I've never encountered anyone who does. Investing billions moves stock prices and markets. That's a completely different way of planning compared to investing small amounts of money. Nor do I have the skill to sell and raise capital, manage a large team, or know the regulations required to start and operate a hedge fund. I would say, perhaps, those less charitable mustachians and bloggers don't actually know everything about investing. That, maybe, believing you're incapable of learning about business and finding companies worth your investment is a potent reason why you haven't.

More likely you got lucky, and for every person chiming in here who got lucky, there are 9 (or more) who didn't get lucky who we'll never hear from. When your luck runs out, we'll stop hearing from you, just like all the other folks over the years.

Regardless, kudos. I'm not trying to be mean, I'm glad you beat the market. I just doubt it involved your skill as much as you think it did.

-W
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on July 16, 2020, 09:34:54 AM
More likely you got lucky, and for every person chiming in here who got lucky, there are 9 (or more) who didn't get lucky who we'll never hear from. When your luck runs out, we'll stop hearing from you, just like all the other folks over the years.

Regardless, kudos. I'm not trying to be mean, I'm glad you beat the market. I just doubt it involved your skill as much as you think it did.

-W

Fair enough. Cheers! I hope you do well too. I'm about done here regardless. After 5+ years, there's very little left to learn and most of my favorite personalities are already gone.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: robartsd on July 20, 2020, 08:58:31 AM
I don't believe I have the skill to do that. I would make the hasty prediction I've never encountered anyone who does. Investing billions moves stock prices and markets. That's a completely different way of planning compared to investing small amounts of money. Nor do I have the skill to sell and raise capital, manage a large team, or know the regulations required to start and operate a hedge fund. I would say, perhaps, those less charitable mustachians and bloggers don't actually know everything about investing. That, maybe, believing you're incapable of learning about business and finding companies worth your investment is a potent reason why you haven't.
Good point about managing other people's money. It's not that I don't think I can learn to invest my own assets at better than index fund returns, it's that I don't think it would be worth my time to do so. By the time I have enough investment assets that the difference in return that I think I could expect would be worth the time, I should be too close to FI to care. Of course my expectation is that with sufficient time spent studying businesses, the average yield from stock picking might be closer to 25% better than the index than the returns you've seen.

I agree with everyone here that expects Tesla to increase profits over the next decade or longer, but I also agree with those here who question if Tesla's price already exceeds the value of those increased profits.

snip
Reported as the spam that it is.
Now your quote is the record of it appearing here.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: PaulMaxime on July 20, 2020, 10:29:41 AM

Good point about managing other people's money. It's not that I don't think I can learn to invest my own assets at better than index fund returns, it's that I don't think it would be worth my time to do so. By the time I have enough investment assets that the difference in return that I think I could expect would be worth the time, I should be too close to FI to care. Of course my expectation is that with sufficient time spent studying businesses, the average yield from stock picking might be closer to 25% better than the index than the returns you've seen.


Hmm. so if your portfolio managed the long term average (say 10%) for 20 years with no cash additions you would have ~6.7X your initial investment. Not bad.

25% better is 13.75% per year. In 20 years that's ~13.1x your initial money. Seems worthwhile to me. Twice the capital means you can withdraw more or retire earlier.

Is this guaranteed, no. Is it easy, no. Should you try? That's up to you. There's definitely a chance that you'll fail and end up with less than just indexing. It's not like it's all or nothing or you can't change your mind if it's not working.

Just like paying 1% to a financial advisor every year (9% vs 10% leads to 5.6x vs 6.7x) ends up absolutely killing your returns even though it seems small at the time, improving things a little compounds. As humans we really have a hard time understanding exponential processes.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: robartsd on July 20, 2020, 02:24:56 PM
Hmm. so if your portfolio managed the long term average (say 10%) for 20 years with no cash additions you would have ~6.7X your initial investment. Not bad.

25% better is 13.75% per year. In 20 years that's ~13.1x your initial money. Seems worthwhile to me. Twice the capital means you can withdraw more or retire earlier.

Is this guaranteed, no. Is it easy, no. Should you try? That's up to you. There's definitely a chance that you'll fail and end up with less than just indexing. It's not like it's all or nothing or you can't change your mind if it's not working.

Just like paying 1% to a financial advisor every year (9% vs 10% leads to 5.6x vs 6.7x) ends up absolutely killing your returns even though it seems small at the time, improving things a little compounds. As humans we really have a hard time understanding exponential processes.
Not sure how 13.75% annual return is a 25% more than 10% annual return.

More importantly, it's not about how much return I make on money I have today. I'm accumulating savings to reach financial independence - the value of the higher returns is less because there's less average time in the market. My estimation is that at a savings rate of 1/3 of income (1/2 of expenses) one could expect to reach FI (25x expenses) in about 19 years if returns average 10% per year. Increasing the rate of return to 12.5% would shave just over 2 years off the expected time to FI. 2 years of full time work is about 4000 hours. 4000 hours over 17 years is about an hour per business day.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: PaulMaxime on July 20, 2020, 07:52:46 PM
Hmm. so if your portfolio managed the long term average (say 10%) for 20 years with no cash additions you would have ~6.7X your initial investment. Not bad.

25% better is 13.75% per year. In 20 years that's ~13.1x your initial money. Seems worthwhile to me. Twice the capital means you can withdraw more or retire earlier.

Is this guaranteed, no. Is it easy, no. Should you try? That's up to you. There's definitely a chance that you'll fail and end up with less than just indexing. It's not like it's all or nothing or you can't change your mind if it's not working.

Just like paying 1% to a financial advisor every year (9% vs 10% leads to 5.6x vs 6.7x) ends up absolutely killing your returns even though it seems small at the time, improving things a little compounds. As humans we really have a hard time understanding exponential processes.
Not sure how 13.75% annual return is a 25% more than 10% annual return.

More importantly, it's not about how much return I make on money I have today. I'm accumulating savings to reach financial independence - the value of the higher returns is less because there's less average time in the market. My estimation is that at a savings rate of 1/3 of income (1/2 of expenses) one could expect to reach FI (25x expenses) in about 19 years if returns average 10% per year. Increasing the rate of return to 12.5% would shave just over 2 years off the expected time to FI. 2 years of full time work is about 4000 hours. 4000 hours over 17 years is about an hour per business day.

10% return means multiply the previous value by 1.1. 1.1 * 1.25 = 1.1375.

But sure, the money you add later has less time to grow. True for me - I've had some large influxes in the past couple years because my privately held company did a couple tender offers where we could sell stock to external investors, and my income has grown over these past years. So 21.5% per year (my time weighted return ignoring cash flows) vs 10.43% per year for Mr. SPY means that I have 2.25X what i would have had with indexing in 14 years, because the most recent money hasn't had as much time to grow. But I'll take the extra.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: talltexan on July 21, 2020, 09:05:59 AM
With all the attention on Tesla, I feel like we've missed the dramatic surge Amazon's shareprice has seen in the last four months. An already large company has basically doubled, with what feels like much less news coverage.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ender on July 21, 2020, 12:02:53 PM
With all the attention on Tesla, I feel like we've missed the dramatic surge Amazon's shareprice has seen in the last four months. An already large company has basically doubled, with what feels like much less news coverage.

Well, I mean TSLA was $255 a year ago and is now $1581 (a 6.2x increase).

AMZN "only" went up 1.6x from a year ago.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: robartsd on July 22, 2020, 02:22:00 PM
10% return means multiply the previous value by 1.1. 1.1 * 1.25 = 1.1375.
Ah, I see how you came up with the number now, but I disagree with your reasoning. 10% return means you add 10% to the original value. You can shortcut this with math by multiplying the value by (1 + 0.1). I believe it should be (1 + (0.1 * (1 + 0.25))) not ((1 + 0.1) * (1 + 0.25)).
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: PaulMaxime on July 22, 2020, 07:22:58 PM
10% return means multiply the previous value by 1.1. 1.1 * 1.25 = 1.1375.
Ah, I see how you came up with the number now, but I disagree with your reasoning. 10% return means you add 10% to the original value. You can shortcut this with math by multiplying the value by (1 + 0.1). I believe it should be (1 + (0.1 * (1 + 0.25))) not ((1 + 0.1) * (1 + 0.25)).

Whichever way you want to do it. 12.5% return for 20 years == 10.5x your money vs. 6.7x so still pretty significant.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Davnasty on July 22, 2020, 08:47:43 PM
Quote from: snip
...snip

Reported as the spam that it is.

Reported as the spam-quote that it is :)
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: BTDretire on July 28, 2020, 01:19:07 PM
The conventional wisdom is,
"Buy low and sell high, and if it doesn't go up don't buy it."
Hmm, $505 to $1539, it did go up, so you should have bought it!
Mar 23 to July 27.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: bacchi on July 28, 2020, 01:41:33 PM
I have to admit, I've been wrong about Tesla so far, and only saved from shorting it by the remarkable premium that the market demands for put options. For the jumps in share price this season look...cartoonish. I'm reminded of something like $GBTC three years ago when I see them. They suggest such a possible variation in future outcomes, that I cannot feel good about a long position, either.

You aren't kidding. A 20% OTM January put is ~$150. Wow.

Maybe I'll short it instead.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: bacchi on July 28, 2020, 01:42:20 PM
The conventional wisdom is,
"Buy low and sell high, and if it doesn't go up don't buy it."
Hmm, $505 to $1539, it did go up, so you should have bought it!
Mar 23 to July 27.

You're admonishing yourself.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: BTDretire on July 29, 2020, 12:12:01 PM
The conventional wisdom is,
"Buy low and sell high, and if it doesn't go up don't buy it."
Hmm, $505 to $1539, it did go up, so you should have bought it!
Mar 23 to July 27.

You're admonishing yourself.
If that's so, it's OK!
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: FrugalSaver on August 08, 2020, 12:25:02 PM
so when we geting added to the S&P?  been over 3 weeks now.  Does Elon do a split and take it to $2000 with that news as well?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: BTDretire on August 11, 2020, 04:10:11 PM
so when we geting added to the S&P?  been over 3 weeks now.  Does Elon do a split and take it to $2000 with that news as well?

 Nah! he'll split it before that.
https://techcrunch.com/2020/08/11/tesla-announces-5-for-1-share-split-rallies-8/
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: park10 on August 11, 2020, 09:52:52 PM
I have to admit, I've been wrong about Tesla so far, and only saved from shorting it by the remarkable premium that the market demands for put options. For the jumps in share price this season look...cartoonish. I'm reminded of something like $GBTC three years ago when I see them. They suggest such a possible variation in future outcomes, that I cannot feel good about a long position, either.

You aren't kidding. A 20% OTM January put is ~$150. Wow.

Maybe I'll short it instead.
Just a 2 week 1 std dev iron condor can be sold for more than $10, which is stunningly high premium...
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DarkandStormy on September 23, 2020, 01:56:17 PM
More lies from Musk & Co. yesterday.

Where are the robotaxis?   Where is the semi that was supposed to be into production by 2019?  Where is the coast to coast fully autonomous trip that was supposed to be completed by 2018?  Where is the new gen Roadster that was supposed to be out in 2020?  Where is the 620 mile range that was "for sure" going to happen by 2017?  Where are the 10k/week Model 3s out of Fremont that "zero doubt" was happening by 2018?  Where are the solar roofs?

Musk and TSLA are built on outlandish lies and promises, which pump the stock.  Then when we get to the point of those promises not coming true, Musk doubles down.  They've mass produced a sedan and a hatchback version of that sedan with horrendous quality issues.  They're running at 1% margins and a 1k+ P/E ratio.  It's a cult stock.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: sherr on September 23, 2020, 02:28:22 PM
More lies from Musk & Co. yesterday.

Where are the robotaxis?   Where is the semi that was supposed to be into production by 2019?  Where is the coast to coast fully autonomous trip that was supposed to be completed by 2018?  Where is the new gen Roadster that was supposed to be out in 2020?  Where is the 620 mile range that was "for sure" going to happen by 2017?  Where are the 10k/week Model 3s out of Fremont that "zero doubt" was happening by 2018?  Where are the solar roofs?

Musk and TSLA are built on outlandish lies and promises, which pump the stock.  Then when we get to the point of those promises not coming true, Musk doubles down.  They've mass produced a sedan and a hatchback version of that sedan with horrendous quality issues.  They're running at 1% margins and a 1k+ P/E ratio.  It's a cult stock.

This is tiring. I'm certainly not going to tell people to invest in Tesla, and I'm certainly not going to do it myself, but it's not a "cult stock". Tesla is the leader in the BEV market, bar none, and other things like the solar roofs and self-driving are in fact happening, just not as fast as Ol' Musky projected.

You can point out that it's not a good investment at this P/E ratio without going full anti-fanboy.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: JLee on September 23, 2020, 02:37:18 PM
More lies from Musk & Co. yesterday.

Where are the robotaxis?   Where is the semi that was supposed to be into production by 2019?  Where is the coast to coast fully autonomous trip that was supposed to be completed by 2018?  Where is the new gen Roadster that was supposed to be out in 2020?  Where is the 620 mile range that was "for sure" going to happen by 2017?  Where are the 10k/week Model 3s out of Fremont that "zero doubt" was happening by 2018?  Where are the solar roofs?

Musk and TSLA are built on outlandish lies and promises, which pump the stock.  Then when we get to the point of those promises not coming true, Musk doubles down.  They've mass produced a sedan and a hatchback version of that sedan with horrendous quality issues.  They're running at 1% margins and a 1k+ P/E ratio.  It's a cult stock.

They make one of the best cars I've ever driven.  You can yell angrily at your computer all you want, but the Model 3 is just a spectacular vehicle.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DarkandStormy on September 23, 2020, 02:54:12 PM
More lies from Musk & Co. yesterday.

Where are the robotaxis?   Where is the semi that was supposed to be into production by 2019?  Where is the coast to coast fully autonomous trip that was supposed to be completed by 2018?  Where is the new gen Roadster that was supposed to be out in 2020?  Where is the 620 mile range that was "for sure" going to happen by 2017?  Where are the 10k/week Model 3s out of Fremont that "zero doubt" was happening by 2018?  Where are the solar roofs?

Musk and TSLA are built on outlandish lies and promises, which pump the stock.  Then when we get to the point of those promises not coming true, Musk doubles down.  They've mass produced a sedan and a hatchback version of that sedan with horrendous quality issues.  They're running at 1% margins and a 1k+ P/E ratio.  It's a cult stock.

They make one of the best cars I've ever driven.  You can yell angrily at your computer all you want, but the Model 3 is just a spectacular vehicle.

Is it a robotaxi yet?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DarkandStormy on September 23, 2020, 02:55:01 PM
More lies from Musk & Co. yesterday.

Where are the robotaxis?   Where is the semi that was supposed to be into production by 2019?  Where is the coast to coast fully autonomous trip that was supposed to be completed by 2018?  Where is the new gen Roadster that was supposed to be out in 2020?  Where is the 620 mile range that was "for sure" going to happen by 2017?  Where are the 10k/week Model 3s out of Fremont that "zero doubt" was happening by 2018?  Where are the solar roofs?

Musk and TSLA are built on outlandish lies and promises, which pump the stock.  Then when we get to the point of those promises not coming true, Musk doubles down.  They've mass produced a sedan and a hatchback version of that sedan with horrendous quality issues.  They're running at 1% margins and a 1k+ P/E ratio.  It's a cult stock.

This is tiring. I'm certainly not going to tell people to invest in Tesla, and I'm certainly not going to do it myself, but it's not a "cult stock". Tesla is the leader in the BEV market, bar none, and other things like the solar roofs and self-driving are in fact happening, just not as fast as Ol' Musky projected.

You can point out that it's not a good investment at this P/E ratio without going full anti-fanboy.

You answered none of my questions.

If Tesla is manufacturing 1k solar roofs per week like Musk claimed, where are they?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: bacchi on September 23, 2020, 04:04:37 PM
Musk is more of a super-optimistic idea person and that's why he's been so successful.

As we've seen, that's not enough for some investors or analysts, including the S&P committee. The risk is just too high -- optimism and great ideas don't always mean high profits or corporate longevity.

The trick for the early Tesla investors is to realize that trades have 2 sides. One is the entry and one is the exit.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: JLee on September 23, 2020, 04:14:41 PM
More lies from Musk & Co. yesterday.

Where are the robotaxis?   Where is the semi that was supposed to be into production by 2019?  Where is the coast to coast fully autonomous trip that was supposed to be completed by 2018?  Where is the new gen Roadster that was supposed to be out in 2020?  Where is the 620 mile range that was "for sure" going to happen by 2017?  Where are the 10k/week Model 3s out of Fremont that "zero doubt" was happening by 2018?  Where are the solar roofs?

Musk and TSLA are built on outlandish lies and promises, which pump the stock.  Then when we get to the point of those promises not coming true, Musk doubles down.  They've mass produced a sedan and a hatchback version of that sedan with horrendous quality issues.  They're running at 1% margins and a 1k+ P/E ratio.  It's a cult stock.

They make one of the best cars I've ever driven.  You can yell angrily at your computer all you want, but the Model 3 is just a spectacular vehicle.

Is it a robotaxi yet?

Nope. Do you have one? Have you even driven one? Or are you just someone who likes to yell at people on the internet?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DarkandStormy on September 23, 2020, 06:10:30 PM
More lies from Musk & Co. yesterday.

Where are the robotaxis?   Where is the semi that was supposed to be into production by 2019?  Where is the coast to coast fully autonomous trip that was supposed to be completed by 2018?  Where is the new gen Roadster that was supposed to be out in 2020?  Where is the 620 mile range that was "for sure" going to happen by 2017?  Where are the 10k/week Model 3s out of Fremont that "zero doubt" was happening by 2018?  Where are the solar roofs?

Musk and TSLA are built on outlandish lies and promises, which pump the stock.  Then when we get to the point of those promises not coming true, Musk doubles down.  They've mass produced a sedan and a hatchback version of that sedan with horrendous quality issues.  They're running at 1% margins and a 1k+ P/E ratio.  It's a cult stock.

They make one of the best cars I've ever driven.  You can yell angrily at your computer all you want, but the Model 3 is just a spectacular vehicle.

Is it a robotaxi yet?

Nope. Do you have one? Have you even driven one? Or are you just someone who likes to yell at people on the internet?

I asked you a simple question. How is that yelling lmfao
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: JLee on September 23, 2020, 07:30:12 PM
More lies from Musk & Co. yesterday.

Where are the robotaxis?   Where is the semi that was supposed to be into production by 2019?  Where is the coast to coast fully autonomous trip that was supposed to be completed by 2018?  Where is the new gen Roadster that was supposed to be out in 2020?  Where is the 620 mile range that was "for sure" going to happen by 2017?  Where are the 10k/week Model 3s out of Fremont that "zero doubt" was happening by 2018?  Where are the solar roofs?

Musk and TSLA are built on outlandish lies and promises, which pump the stock.  Then when we get to the point of those promises not coming true, Musk doubles down.  They've mass produced a sedan and a hatchback version of that sedan with horrendous quality issues.  They're running at 1% margins and a 1k+ P/E ratio.  It's a cult stock.

They make one of the best cars I've ever driven.  You can yell angrily at your computer all you want, but the Model 3 is just a spectacular vehicle.

Is it a robotaxi yet?

Nope. Do you have one? Have you even driven one? Or are you just someone who likes to yell at people on the internet?

I asked you a simple question. How is that yelling lmfao

Would you like me to rephrase to "type angrily"? Perhaps that's more accurate.

Quote
More lies from Musk & Co. yesterday.

Where are the robotaxis?   Where is the semi that was supposed to be into production by 2019?  Where is the coast to coast fully autonomous trip that was supposed to be completed by 2018?  Where is the new gen Roadster that was supposed to be out in 2020?  Where is the 620 mile range that was "for sure" going to happen by 2017?  Where are the 10k/week Model 3s out of Fremont that "zero doubt" was happening by 2018?  Where are the solar roofs?

Musk and TSLA are built on outlandish lies and promises, which pump the stock.  Then when we get to the point of those promises not coming true, Musk doubles down.  They've mass produced a sedan and a hatchback version of that sedan with horrendous quality issues.  They're running at 1% margins and a 1k+ P/E ratio.  It's a cult stock.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on September 23, 2020, 07:40:30 PM
More lies from Musk & Co. yesterday.

Where are the robotaxis?   Where is the semi that was supposed to be into production by 2019?  Where is the coast to coast fully autonomous trip that was supposed to be completed by 2018?  Where is the new gen Roadster that was supposed to be out in 2020?  Where is the 620 mile range that was "for sure" going to happen by 2017?  Where are the 10k/week Model 3s out of Fremont that "zero doubt" was happening by 2018?  Where are the solar roofs?

Musk and TSLA are built on outlandish lies and promises, which pump the stock.  Then when we get to the point of those promises not coming true, Musk doubles down.  They've mass produced a sedan and a hatchback version of that sedan with horrendous quality issues.  They're running at 1% margins and a 1k+ P/E ratio.  It's a cult stock.

I found some more leads for you to follow in exposing the industry:
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/07/all-the-promises-automakers-have-made-about-the-future-of-cars/532806/ (https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/07/all-the-promises-automakers-have-made-about-the-future-of-cars/532806/)
In addition, I can afford to send you a tin foil hat with this year's TSLA gains to help in your endeavors.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Abe on September 23, 2020, 07:52:01 PM
What do you all think about the battery technology they announced? I'm not an engineer but it seems promising. Reports I've read from various outfits suggest its a major improvement in design, but differ on whether Tesla can deliver the improvement gains they predict, and definitely question whether they can be done in the timeframe of 2-3 years. I think this is different in nature than the usual over-promises on the software front, but is a problem that no other companies have successfully tackled in a commercially viable way. Then again, if what they announced does come to fruition, it can pose Tesla to become the (pre-recession 80s) General Electric of the coming century. Either way, I think this will depress sales until the new technology is mass produced.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DarkandStormy on September 23, 2020, 08:05:20 PM
More lies from Musk & Co. yesterday.

Where are the robotaxis?   Where is the semi that was supposed to be into production by 2019?  Where is the coast to coast fully autonomous trip that was supposed to be completed by 2018?  Where is the new gen Roadster that was supposed to be out in 2020?  Where is the 620 mile range that was "for sure" going to happen by 2017?  Where are the 10k/week Model 3s out of Fremont that "zero doubt" was happening by 2018?  Where are the solar roofs?

Musk and TSLA are built on outlandish lies and promises, which pump the stock.  Then when we get to the point of those promises not coming true, Musk doubles down.  They've mass produced a sedan and a hatchback version of that sedan with horrendous quality issues.  They're running at 1% margins and a 1k+ P/E ratio.  It's a cult stock.

They make one of the best cars I've ever driven.  You can yell angrily at your computer all you want, but the Model 3 is just a spectacular vehicle.

Is it a robotaxi yet?

Nope. Do you have one? Have you even driven one? Or are you just someone who likes to yell at people on the internet?

I asked you a simple question. How is that yelling lmfao

Would you like me to rephrase to "type angrily"? Perhaps that's more accurate.

Quote
More lies from Musk & Co. yesterday.

Where are the robotaxis?   Where is the semi that was supposed to be into production by 2019?  Where is the coast to coast fully autonomous trip that was supposed to be completed by 2018?  Where is the new gen Roadster that was supposed to be out in 2020?  Where is the 620 mile range that was "for sure" going to happen by 2017?  Where are the 10k/week Model 3s out of Fremont that "zero doubt" was happening by 2018?  Where are the solar roofs?

Musk and TSLA are built on outlandish lies and promises, which pump the stock.  Then when we get to the point of those promises not coming true, Musk doubles down.  They've mass produced a sedan and a hatchback version of that sedan with horrendous quality issues.  They're running at 1% margins and a 1k+ P/E ratio.  It's a cult stock.

Where did I type angrily at anyone?  This is getting weird.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: DarkandStormy on September 23, 2020, 08:11:52 PM
More lies from Musk & Co. yesterday.

Where are the robotaxis?   Where is the semi that was supposed to be into production by 2019?  Where is the coast to coast fully autonomous trip that was supposed to be completed by 2018?  Where is the new gen Roadster that was supposed to be out in 2020?  Where is the 620 mile range that was "for sure" going to happen by 2017?  Where are the 10k/week Model 3s out of Fremont that "zero doubt" was happening by 2018?  Where are the solar roofs?

Musk and TSLA are built on outlandish lies and promises, which pump the stock.  Then when we get to the point of those promises not coming true, Musk doubles down.  They've mass produced a sedan and a hatchback version of that sedan with horrendous quality issues.  They're running at 1% margins and a 1k+ P/E ratio.  It's a cult stock.

I found some more leads for you to follow in exposing the industry:
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/07/all-the-promises-automakers-have-made-about-the-future-of-cars/532806/ (https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/07/all-the-promises-automakers-have-made-about-the-future-of-cars/532806/)
In addition, I can afford to send you a tin foil hat with this year's TSLA gains to help in your endeavors.

None of these other companies guaranteed level 5 autonomy (robotaxis) this year.

Is that coast to coast autonomous trip completed yet? Was supposed to be 2017 maybe, 2018 definitely.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: KungfuRabbit on September 30, 2020, 10:03:01 AM

[/quote]

None of these other companies guaranteed level 5 autonomy (robotaxis) this year.

Is that coast to coast autonomous trip completed yet? Was supposed to be 2017 maybe, 2018 definitely.
[/quote]

The car is 100% for sure fully capable of driving autonomously coast to coast, right now.  Using that statement as a knock against Tesla is just silly. 

In Q2 of 2020 Tesla's real world real driving data showed 1 car accident every 4.53 miles driven with autopilot engaged, compared to the national average of 1 accident per 479,000 miles driven.  This is real actual data, not some simulation or estimation.   

So RIGHT NOW autopilot gets in 10 times fewer accidents than a human driver. 

The problem is people focus on the accidents.  So yea, Teslas on autopilot have crashed, but guess what - there would have been 10 times more crashes if they hadn't been on autopilot, and humans are just bad at wrapping their heads around that. 

Elon calls it a problem of how many 9s people expect.  Going from 99% accident free to 99.9% to 99.99% to 99.999% is a really big step each time. 

So since you are clearly a skeptic, what is your answer?  Statistics clearly show autopilot is 10 times better right now, do you need it to be 100 times better before you believe in it?  1,000 times better?  1,000,000 times better????  Personally if I had to get in a taxi I'd rather have it be running on Tesla autopilot than a random human driver - and autopilot is getting better every day, human drivers if anything are just getting more and more distracted. 
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: AdrianC on September 30, 2020, 10:50:42 AM
The car is 100% for sure fully capable of driving autonomously coast to coast, right now.  Using that statement as a knock against Tesla is just silly. 

In Q2 of 2020 Tesla's real world real driving data showed 1 car accident every 4.53 [MILLION] miles driven with autopilot engaged, compared to the national average of 1 accident per 479,000 miles driven.  This is real actual data, not some simulation or estimation.   

So RIGHT NOW autopilot gets in 10 times fewer accidents than a human driver. 
Is that apples to apples?
Is Autopilot used extensively in urban driving where most accidents happen?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: sherr on September 30, 2020, 10:54:38 AM
The car is 100% for sure fully capable of driving autonomously coast to coast, right now.  Using that statement as a knock against Tesla is just silly. 

What? No it's not. 100% autonomous coast-to-coast would obviously require recharging, which requires navigating intersections and pulling up to the charger.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: sherr on September 30, 2020, 11:12:58 AM
The car is 100% for sure fully capable of driving autonomously coast to coast, right now.  Using that statement as a knock against Tesla is just silly. 

In Q2 of 2020 Tesla's real world real driving data showed 1 car accident every 4.53 [MILLION] miles driven with autopilot engaged, compared to the national average of 1 accident per 479,000 miles driven.  This is real actual data, not some simulation or estimation.   

So RIGHT NOW autopilot gets in 10 times fewer accidents than a human driver. 
Is that apples to apples?
Is Autopilot used extensively in urban driving where most accidents happen?

No it's not, it's "while Autopilot is engaged" which is going to be mostly highway driving, and mostly in the least-dangerous situations of highway and city driving (for example less often in a construction zone than average, less often in heavy rain or fog or snow, etc). Tesla doesn't release numbers more specific than that, so no one knows exactly how it stacks up apples-to-apples.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Paper Chaser on September 30, 2020, 11:40:19 AM

The car is 100% for sure fully capable of driving autonomously coast to coast, right now.  Using that statement as a knock against Tesla is just silly. 

Per Tesla's own literature, the driver must remain attentive and ready to retake control at a moment's notice. That's not "Full autonomy" according to the SAE, NHTSA, etc. It's only Level 2 autonomy.
(https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.dot.gov/files/styles/paragraphs_image_crop/public/nhtsa_sae_automation_levels.png?itok=0GsCp1em)

Elon and Tesla have great marketing. Publicity and hype can literally generate billions for them. They're not going to miss a chance to show off and build their brand. If they felt confident that the car could do it, I have a very hard time believing that they wouldn't have done it already. Level 2 autonomy is intended to be used as a driving aid to reduce fatigue in simple situations such as long stretches of highway cruising. It's not intended to replace all driving, and it's not capable of handling very complex situations or in some cases, even relatively simple ones like poor road markings.


The problem is people focus on the accidents.  So yea, Teslas on autopilot have crashed, but guess what - there would have been 10 times more crashes if they hadn't been on autopilot, and humans are just bad at wrapping their heads around that. 

Elon calls it a problem of how many 9s people expect.  Going from 99% accident free to 99.9% to 99.99% to 99.999% is a really big step each time. 

The thing is, they don't have to be crashing at all if Tesla had better controls in place. Many of these steps could probably be done with simple OTA updates. All other tech like this has more restrictions in place on the user. GM's Super Cruise is also a Level 2 driving aid. They have cameras in the car that watch the driver and make sure their eyes remain forward and hands on the wheel. They have far fewer miles logged than Tesla, but they also have zero accidents while the system is in use. Waymo is Level 4 autonomy (no safety driver at all) on public roads, and they have a far, far better safety record than Autopilot.
The way that they're wrecking is also important too. Most of the Autopilot accidents that I'm aware of involve a failure to react to a pretty basic driving situation. The human behind the wheel is to blame, but shouldn't these autonomous safety systems be able to see a stationary object the size of a semi that's blocking the road? Autopilot struggles with things that most human drivers (even partially distracted ones) can navigate without wrecking. Wrecks like https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3hrKnv0dPQ (ftp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3hrKnv0dPQ) only make the general public, legislators, and regulators apprehensive to adopting this tech. It's better for everybody (users and manufacturers) to make sure this tech is developed and applied responsibly, even if that takes a couple of years longer. High profile, easily avoidable wrecks a couple of times per year only hurt the cause.

So since you are clearly a skeptic, what is your answer?  Statistics clearly show autopilot is 10 times better right now, do you need it to be 100 times better before you believe in it?  1,000 times better?  1,000,000 times better????  Personally if I had to get in a taxi I'd rather have it be running on Tesla autopilot than a random human driver - and autopilot is getting better every day, human drivers if anything are just getting more and more distracted.

The thing is, Tesla is contributing to those distracted drivers by placing a huge screen front/center. They're contributing to the problem they're trying to solve by integrating the HVAC controls into that screen, so that if you want to change the temp or where the air is blowing, you have to take your eyes off the road. They're making the problem worse by allowing drivers to mess with functions on the screen (unrelated to operating the vehicle) while the vehicle is moving. Most of the Autopilot accidents that I'm aware of involve Autopilot tech being misused by the driver. Imagine how good Tesla's safety record could be if they put similar safeguards in place that others in the industry already do?
As for me, it's not about a metric of safety, it's about Autopilot routinely doing things that a human isn't likely to do. I want to see it navigating difficult situations equally as well or better than an average human driver (pretty low bar). When I see videos of it failing to see a stationary object (like a tipped over truck that's 9ft tall and 20 ft wide) in broad daylight, that's not going to cut it for me to trust it with my life or my families. I'd be more comfortable using it as it's intended use (augmented cruise control), but that breeds complacency too, which can lead to situations where the driver needs to take over, but isn't prepared to do so. There's a growing contingent of people in the car world that say we shouldn't be allowing public use of anything between level 1 autonomy and level 5 autonomy on public roads. There just aren't enough safeguards in place, and drivers are assuming the tech is more capable than it is at this time.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: sherr on September 30, 2020, 11:55:36 AM
The thing is, Tesla is contributing to those distracted drivers by placing a huge screen front/center. They're contributing to the problem they're trying to solve by integrating the HVAC controls into that screen, so that if you want to change the temp or where the air is blowing, you have to take your eyes off the road. They're making the problem worse by allowing drivers to mess with functions on the screen (unrelated to operating the vehicle) while the vehicle is moving. Most of the Autopilot accidents that I'm aware of involve Autopilot tech being misused by the driver. Imagine how good Tesla's safety record could be if they put similar safeguards in place that others in the industry already do?

"Have to" is probably wrong nowadays, because most things you'd actually want to mess with while driving are either automatic (wipers) or can and probably should be done by voice command (manual wipers, music, AC, navigation, calling someone). But yes, they probably should disallow more of the screen options while moving.

I'd be more comfortable using it as it's intended use (augmented cruise control), but that breeds complacency too, which can lead to situations where the driver needs to take over, but isn't prepared to do so.

My experience with it is that rather than breed complacency it drastically reduces driver fatigue, and allows me to be much more aware of situational considerations ("is there someone coming up fast behind me?") than having to focus all the time on keeping the car in the lane. But yes, I'm sure there are a lot of people who misuse and abuse the system. I doubt it will be practical to ban level 2-4 autonomy, so my main hope is that the system continues to improve, and hopefully rapidly, so that the abuse will be less of a problem.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: robartsd on September 30, 2020, 02:33:08 PM
My experience with it is that rather than breed complacency it drastically reduces driver fatigue, and allows me to be much more aware of situational considerations ("is there someone coming up fast behind me?") than having to focus all the time on keeping the car in the lane. But yes, I'm sure there are a lot of people who misuse and abuse the system. I doubt it will be practical to ban level 2-4 autonomy, so my main hope is that the system continues to improve, and hopefully rapidly, so that the abuse will be less of a problem.
Level 2 autonomy seems to have the highest risk of abuse. I think eventually new vehicles will not be allowed to offer level 2 autonomy. Yes, enforcing restrictions on using level 2 autonomous vehicles that are already deployed does not seem practical. I hope that most existing level 2 systems are upgraded to at least level 3 as the technology progresses. I think software upgrades enabling level 3 should be free and automatic where possible.

Level 3 has less potential for abuse, simply because the driver has more options that should not be considered abuse. Driver watching a movie, reading a book, texting, etc. is OK up until the vehicle notifies them that they will soon need to take over. I'm not sure how much notice is meant by "with notice" - 15-30 seconds while the driver develops situational awareness before being required to take control seems reasonable to me.

Level 4 should be safe. It might mean the autonomous vehicle decides it cannot proceed and safely stops. I see no reason to ever restrict use of level 4 autonomy. The only difference I see between level 4 and level 5 is that a subset of conditions that are considered safe enough for human drivers to handle are not able to be handled by the autonomous vehicle.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Paper Chaser on October 01, 2020, 07:12:26 AM
My experience with it is that rather than breed complacency it drastically reduces driver fatigue, and allows me to be much more aware of situational considerations ("is there someone coming up fast behind me?") than having to focus all the time on keeping the car in the lane. But yes, I'm sure there are a lot of people who misuse and abuse the system. I doubt it will be practical to ban level 2-4 autonomy, so my main hope is that the system continues to improve, and hopefully rapidly, so that the abuse will be less of a problem.
Level 2 autonomy seems to have the highest risk of abuse. I think eventually new vehicles will not be allowed to offer level 2 autonomy. Yes, enforcing restrictions on using level 2 autonomous vehicles that are already deployed does not seem practical. I hope that most existing level 2 systems are upgraded to at least level 3 as the technology progresses. I think software upgrades enabling level 3 should be free and automatic where possible.

Level 3 has less potential for abuse, simply because the driver has more options that should not be considered abuse. Driver watching a movie, reading a book, texting, etc. is OK up until the vehicle notifies them that they will soon need to take over. I'm not sure how much notice is meant by "with notice" - 15-30 seconds while the driver develops situational awareness before being required to take control seems reasonable to me.

Level 4 should be safe. It might mean the autonomous vehicle decides it cannot proceed and safely stops. I see no reason to ever restrict use of level 4 autonomy. The only difference I see between level 4 and level 5 is that a subset of conditions that are considered safe enough for human drivers to handle are not able to be handled by the autonomous vehicle.

I think 15-30 seconds is a ton of time when driving for stuff to go wrong. Most emergency situations on the road occur in far less time than that. One critical issue with semi-autonomous driving aids is that when they get into a situation that they can't solve, it's going to be a fairly complex situation that a human will suddenly be expected to figure out. So you're basically asking the human to jump in and handle the hard stuff on the fly. If they've been paying attention, it might be possible for the human to safely navigate the emergency or even avoid it entirely, but if the driver is distracted in any way, they have almost no chance of instantly assessing the situation and choosing the best course of action when the car suddenly turns over control.

I realize that this thread is specifically about TSLA, but these advanced safety systems from all manufacturers struggle with pretty basic driving situations these days. We're still a very long way from full autonomy if you can't recognize and avoid crashing into a pedestrian while traveling 30mph in broad daylight:
https://newsroom.aaa.com/2019/10/aaa-warns-pedestrian-detection-systems-dont-work-when-needed-most/
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ChpBstrd on October 01, 2020, 10:30:25 AM
Also bear in mind that the point of vehicle autonomy would be to let the driver be distracted.

The “benefit” of this tech will be that you’ll eventually be able to scroll through Facebook ads or shop on Amazon during your commutes, activities which will eventually lead to higher spending on your part. Welcome to the attention economy / hell.

A Tesla commute will eventually involve consuming ads during the drive, which will help pay for the ride in a post-car-ownership world. The end game is to create a gated ecosystem where Tesla captures some of these ad revenues.

So you’ll be shuttled around in a vehicle you don’t own, control, or have any way to control, with a screen in front of your face playing ads the whole way. The price you pay for this luxury (sitting and viewing ads is already our main leisure activity, after all) will depend on how long you are willing to sit in the car. Traffic speeds could slow to a crawl if the revenue from targeted advertising exceeds the cost of driving time because many consumer/workers will pick the cheapest way to get to work, which is the slowest and most convoluted route. The things you buy on these trips will further impoverish you, causing you to again buy the cheapest transportation next time which exposes you to the most ads, and so the cycle continues.

Again, bicycle commuting wins.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on October 01, 2020, 01:29:58 PM
Also bear in mind that the point of vehicle autonomy would be to let the driver be distracted.

The “benefit” of this tech will be that you’ll eventually be able to scroll through Facebook ads or shop on Amazon during your commutes, activities which will eventually lead to higher spending on your part. Welcome to the attention economy / hell.

A Tesla commute will eventually involve consuming ads during the drive, which will help pay for the ride in a post-car-ownership world. The end game is to create a gated ecosystem where Tesla captures some of these ad revenues.

So you’ll be shuttled around in a vehicle you don’t own, control, or have any way to control, with a screen in front of your face playing ads the whole way. The price you pay for this luxury (sitting and viewing ads is already our main leisure activity, after all) will depend on how long you are willing to sit in the car. Traffic speeds could slow to a crawl if the revenue from targeted advertising exceeds the cost of driving time because many consumer/workers will pick the cheapest way to get to work, which is the slowest and most convoluted route. The things you buy on these trips will further impoverish you, causing you to again buy the cheapest transportation next time which exposes you to the most ads, and so the cycle continues.

Again, bicycle commuting wins.

That’s a rather cynical vision of the “benefit”. Distraction is one facet. Can also be used to transit goods, handicapped individuals, or the elderly in addition to reducing cost for people in general. Sometimes people who are very upset need to go somewhere. You could also use the free time to be productive, creative, or give another passenger your full attention in conversation. What you’re saying is likely to happen, but I would disagree in describing the tech as a pseudo benefit.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ChpBstrd on October 01, 2020, 02:50:00 PM
Also bear in mind that the point of vehicle autonomy would be to let the driver be distracted.

The “benefit” of this tech will be that you’ll eventually be able to scroll through Facebook ads or shop on Amazon during your commutes, activities which will eventually lead to higher spending on your part. Welcome to the attention economy / hell.

A Tesla commute will eventually involve consuming ads during the drive, which will help pay for the ride in a post-car-ownership world. The end game is to create a gated ecosystem where Tesla captures some of these ad revenues.

So you’ll be shuttled around in a vehicle you don’t own, control, or have any way to control, with a screen in front of your face playing ads the whole way. The price you pay for this luxury (sitting and viewing ads is already our main leisure activity, after all) will depend on how long you are willing to sit in the car. Traffic speeds could slow to a crawl if the revenue from targeted advertising exceeds the cost of driving time because many consumer/workers will pick the cheapest way to get to work, which is the slowest and most convoluted route. The things you buy on these trips will further impoverish you, causing you to again buy the cheapest transportation next time which exposes you to the most ads, and so the cycle continues.

Again, bicycle commuting wins.

That’s a rather cynical vision of the “benefit”. Distraction is one facet. Can also be used to transit goods, handicapped individuals, or the elderly in addition to reducing cost for people in general. Sometimes people who are very upset need to go somewhere. You could also use the free time to be productive, creative, or give another passenger your full attention in conversation. What you’re saying is likely to happen, but I would disagree in describing the tech as a pseudo benefit.

It will be great for some people, but in the tech industry every free benefit that has ever been offered has come with a hidden cost. Your Google searches are used to serve up more targeted ads that will eventually succeed in parting you from your money or vote. Your iPhone is full of free features that lock you into a closed ecosystem that directs your spending. And of course the free social media products are addictive, depressive, and extremist. Why will transportation not be monetized the same way? Expecting people to pay for their transportation directly and in cash is like expecting a social media company to start charging $20/month or YouTube to require a quick payment of 5 cents per video. I’m sure such services would be excellent and very customer-centric, but nobody’s buying them even today.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: GreenEggs on November 16, 2020, 04:18:34 PM
Seems TSLA just jumped 13.5% after hours.  Wonder why?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: v8rx7guy on November 16, 2020, 04:23:10 PM
Seems TSLA just jumped 13.5% after hours.  Wonder why?

A quick Google search says that TSLA is being added to the S&P500
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Pizzabrewer on November 16, 2020, 05:28:45 PM
I lucked out. I bought 4 weekly calls today, $440 strike, at $1.17. I’ve been losing $300-500 most weeks playing TSLA options but this will make it all up and more.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ender on November 17, 2020, 06:57:32 AM
I think the answer to this thread is conclusively "yes" tesla was a good investment. hah.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: talltexan on November 17, 2020, 07:08:26 AM
I wonder if the SpaceX news had anything to do with this increase?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: sherr on November 17, 2020, 07:36:39 AM
I wonder if the SpaceX news had anything to do with this increase?

It shouldn't, SpaceX is a separate (private) company.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on November 17, 2020, 08:21:01 AM
Tesla's market cap would be 1.1% weighted in $5 trillion of S&P indices. $55 billion worth of shares need to be represented over the next few months, $20 billion is currently short, and most shares are long. Q4 will be record profit. So movement is completely unpredictable because of covid short term, but seems like there are tail winds generally.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: v8rx7guy on November 17, 2020, 08:30:07 AM
This is one of those times I am quite happy that I am invested in the Total Stock Index fund rather than the S&P500 index fund... I've been riding this TSLA wave all of the way up somewhat unintentionally.  There's going to be a lot of people buying high with their S&P500 Index Funds... but that's not to say it is the top by any means for TSLA.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: mistymoney on November 19, 2020, 11:37:59 AM
This is one of those times I am quite happy that I am invested in the Total Stock Index fund rather than the S&P500 index fund... I've been riding this TSLA wave all of the way up somewhat unintentionally.  There's going to be a lot of people buying high with their S&P500 Index Funds... but that's not to say it is the top by any means for TSLA.

wow - never thought of it in this way, insightful!

Thanks! :)
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: mistymoney on November 19, 2020, 06:06:24 PM
Quote
Tesla shares surged as much as 5.5% on Thursday after Elon Musk's electric-car company posted third-quarter earnings on Wednesday that beat Wall Street's expectations. The automaker grew revenue by 39% year-on-year to $8.8 billion, which helped to more than triple its operating income to a record $809 million

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-stock-price-jumps-elon-musk-electric-cars-q3-profit-2020-10

so - is tsla in the sp500 yet or still speculating?

and if it goes in, who is it kicking out?? Either past or future tense?

Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: mistymoney on November 19, 2020, 06:09:21 PM
Also - wondering - did some of the early investors here hold all the way and/or has tsla propel them to RE?

I think I saw someone say they had 600 shares....before the split...that's like 1.5m now??

Want to hear about it :)
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on November 19, 2020, 06:57:56 PM
Quote
Tesla shares surged as much as 5.5% on Thursday after Elon Musk's electric-car company posted third-quarter earnings on Wednesday that beat Wall Street's expectations. The automaker grew revenue by 39% year-on-year to $8.8 billion, which helped to more than triple its operating income to a record $809 million

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-stock-price-jumps-elon-musk-electric-cars-q3-profit-2020-10

so - is tsla in the sp500 yet or still speculating?

and if it goes in, who is it kicking out?? Either past or future tense?

The announcement is that Tesla will be joining the S&P 500, but it's not instantaneous. It goes fully into effect December 21st. This gives funds a chance to rebalance.

The rejected company hasn't been announced yet.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: mistymoney on November 19, 2020, 07:18:34 PM
thanks Tom!

I read this entire thread tonight from start to finish today. Very interesting!
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: v8rx7guy on November 19, 2020, 09:43:40 PM
Pretty safe to say that it has been a good investment since the beginning of this thread... it has almost gone 10x.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on November 19, 2020, 11:03:08 PM
Also - wondering - did some of the early investors here hold all the way and/or has tsla propel them to RE?

I think I saw someone say they had 600 shares....before the split...that's like 1.5m now??

Want to hear about it :)

I started purchasing TSLA shares in 2013. FIRE'd in 2017. TSLA investment was not central to my FIRE decision, but has provided an added cushion. Currently holding 2,600 post-split shares. Keep in mind I had never invested more than $5,000 in any individual stock before Tesla. There were some serious white-knuckle days along the way. On those days, I reminded myself that having more money in a world where Tesla failed and climate change continued unabated wouldn’t matter or bring me happiness. Making money while investing in a worthwhile mission is very rewarding.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on November 20, 2020, 07:40:17 AM
Also - wondering - did some of the early investors here hold all the way and/or has tsla propel them to RE?

I think I saw someone say they had 600 shares....before the split...that's like 1.5m now??

Want to hear about it :)

I have ~1500 post split shares in retirement accounts and HSA from accumulating through mid 2019. I'm financially independent, but I'm working through the end of 2021 because I've been friends with the owner of the company since we were 8 and he relies on me. We've already talked about it and made a schedule for exiting. Most of the money I made was through TSLA call options this year in my taxable account. My kids are 5 and 2. All the time in the day to raise them this early compared to our original timeline is a dream come true for my wife and I.

Early 2019 was the hardest to hold. Q1 & Q2 2019 was hugely disappointing in manufacturing execution. 2020 has been stellar on all counts.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ChpBstrd on November 20, 2020, 09:42:01 AM
Pretty safe to say that it has been a good investment since the beginning of this thread... it has almost gone 10x.

Betting on 26 at a particular roulette table in Vegas also turned out to be a "good investment" for somebody during this timeframe. The risk of buying a stock with a PE near 1000 and a dependence upon certain technical and political developments is not fully appreciated. Either winning or losing such a bet seems obvious in hindsight.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: sherr on November 20, 2020, 09:45:25 AM
Pretty safe to say that it has been a good investment since the beginning of this thread... it has almost gone 10x.

Betting on 26 at a particular roulette table in Vegas also turned out to be a "good investment" for somebody during this timeframe. The risk of buying a stock with a PE near 1000 and a dependence upon certain technical and political developments is not fully appreciated. Either winning or losing such a bet seems obvious in hindsight.

Thanks, I wanted to say something like that too.

I'm happy that Tesla's succeeding. I have a Tesla, and I think they're a great company. But this outcome was in no way assured, or obvious, or even likely.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on November 20, 2020, 10:30:32 AM
Pretty safe to say that it has been a good investment since the beginning of this thread... it has almost gone 10x.

Betting on 26 at a particular roulette table in Vegas also turned out to be a "good investment" for somebody during this timeframe. The risk of buying a stock with a PE near 1000 and a dependence upon certain technical and political developments is not fully appreciated. Either winning or losing such a bet seems obvious in hindsight.

You have to excuse me, but I cannot take anyone seriously who is promoting PE as the primary analysis metric for a rapid growth company in a capital-intensive industry.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on November 20, 2020, 10:52:27 AM
Pretty safe to say that it has been a good investment since the beginning of this thread... it has almost gone 10x.

Betting on 26 at a particular roulette table in Vegas also turned out to be a "good investment" for somebody during this timeframe. The risk of buying a stock with a PE near 1000 and a dependence upon certain technical and political developments is not fully appreciated. Either winning or losing such a bet seems obvious in hindsight.

Thanks, I wanted to say something like that too.

I'm happy that Tesla's succeeding. I have a Tesla, and I think they're a great company. But this outcome was in no way assured, or obvious, or even likely.

All investing involves risk that can be likened to gambling. Equating investing in Tesla to a spin of the roulette wheel is an absurd comparison though. I didn’t play a game of chance. I made a very educated investment decision and stuck with it for years despite constant naysaying from friends and coworkers. Acknowledging there are factors beyond my control does not make me “lucky”.

I had an investment thesis. I will maintain my investment as long as my thesis holds true and I can answer two simple questions in the affirmative.

Are EVs and battery storage (coupled with renewable energy) the future?
Is Tesla the industry leader in EVs and battery tech/ storage?

My investment thesis and Tesla’s success does not require subsidies (Tesla continues to grow rapidly without Federal US EV subsidies). It doesn’t count on robo taxis or full self driving, the boring company, Tesla insurance, Tesla roof, or Tesla software services.  Chances are one or more of these ventures will also be wildly successful/profitable. To those who did their own research and didn’t let the financial media paint an overly negative picture of Tesla’s prospects, an investment in Tesla once the Model S was successfully launched was hardly as risky as most were led to believe.

I recommend everyone invest in companies whose product or service you understand and appreciate. For me, buying a 2013 Nissan Leaf and educating myself on all the advantages of EV transportation made it obvious that EVs were the future back then. So, I’m not suggesting everyone should have invested in Tesla. This was the one time in my investing life however, where I felt like I had “special” knowledge that even Wall Street was missing with its short term metrics, lack of understanding, and inability to properly value Tesla because they kept trying to compare Tesla to conventional automakers. The modern day equivalent of trying to value Henry Ford’s new car company and livery stables in the early 1900s using the same metrics because they both involved transportation.

Any investment involves some luck along the way, but I also spend time daily educating myself on every aspect of Tesla’s business. I missed the boat on all the FANG stocks, but I give credit to those investors that did see the value early and see no reason to diminish their success by suggesting they won a simple game of chance.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on November 20, 2020, 10:54:03 AM
Pretty safe to say that it has been a good investment since the beginning of this thread... it has almost gone 10x.

Betting on 26 at a particular roulette table in Vegas also turned out to be a "good investment" for somebody during this timeframe. The risk of buying a stock with a PE near 1000 and a dependence upon certain technical and political developments is not fully appreciated. Either winning or losing such a bet seems obvious in hindsight.

You have to excuse me, but I cannot take anyone seriously who is promoting PE as the primary analysis metric for a rapid growth company in a capital-intensive industry.

There’s a lot odd about that perspective. Likening investing in a company to a roulette table before even discussing risk is the first. Everything being 100% luck for any investment but your own is good cover for an ego too fragile to ask why some people saw an opportunity and I didn’t. Despite years of arguments documented to look at.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ChpBstrd on November 20, 2020, 01:04:39 PM
Pretty safe to say that it has been a good investment since the beginning of this thread... it has almost gone 10x.

Betting on 26 at a particular roulette table in Vegas also turned out to be a "good investment" for somebody during this timeframe. The risk of buying a stock with a PE near 1000 and a dependence upon certain technical and political developments is not fully appreciated. Either winning or losing such a bet seems obvious in hindsight.

You have to excuse me, but I cannot take anyone seriously who is promoting PE as the primary analysis metric for a rapid growth company in a capital-intensive industry.

There’s a lot odd about that perspective. Likening investing in a company to a roulette table before even discussing risk is the first. Everything being 100% luck for any investment but your own is good cover for an ego too fragile to ask why some people saw an opportunity and I didn’t. Despite years of arguments documented to look at.
Did you go 100% all in based on this conviction? Are you doing so now?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on November 20, 2020, 01:41:31 PM

Did you go 100% all in based on this conviction? Are you doing so now?

Gosh, you really are obsessed with this gambling approach.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Niceday on November 23, 2020, 08:27:51 PM
Also - wondering - did some of the early investors here hold all the way and/or has tsla propel them to RE?

I think I saw someone say they had 600 shares....before the split...that's like 1.5m now??

Want to hear about it :)

When I first heard about Tesla in 2014, I laughed at the idea.  I thought it was going to go the way of Fisker Karma.  When I took a trip to California in the summer of 2014 and saw a bunch of model S on the road, I thought may be Tesla had a chance.  Hydrogen fuel cell was a competing technology back then but after I read the Musk biography when it came out in 2015, I knew hydrogen fuel cell was a dead end.  I bought my first shares in 2015.  It had been a tough ride, a really tough ride.  I remember thinking that TSLA was such a battleground, so hated and loved at the same time.  It traded poorly in the stock market almost every single day.  I'm sure many of us remember Elon's tweets.  I was like "please don't tweet anything about your company for a few days!!".  I'm glad the company is now recognized, at least by S&P.

PE is really not a good indicator for stock performance, especially for young and growing companies.  Unfortunately, the PE concept might have been popularized in the 1990's in a couple well-known books.  If the stock market was this easy, then a lot of people would be making money by just buying and holding low PE stocks.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on November 24, 2020, 08:33:09 AM
Did you go 100% all in based on this conviction? Are you doing so now?

No.

As I said earlier in the thread, valuing this stock takes looking at where production is going. Right now it's looking like 1,000,000 cars in 2021 at 25% GM. 2022, it'll be +2 million cars. Total addressable market is growing incredibly fast. On the financials, they'll be printing billions at increasingly higher levels because battery costs are falling like a rock. We'll also likely see manufacturing scale efficiencies increase the GM. Further, they're selling a $10k software package whose take rate is growing and soon it'll all go to the bottom line vs deferred revenue. I haven't even added all their ancillary services and products. When you extrapolate these trends through 2025, there's a lot of growth still left here. That's just what I think and could be wrong of course, but implying investing in a stock is all luck is farcical and self-limiting.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on November 24, 2020, 09:00:17 AM
I don't think forward P/E is a "backward looking instrument".
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/forwardpe.asp
"Forward price-to-earnings (forward P/E) is a version of the ratio of price-to-earnings (P/E) that uses forecasted earnings for the P/E calculation."

I disagree that a forward P/E of 345 (average of Yahoo and Morningstar) is "low P/E".  A hint that you're wrong is in your example, where even Amazon has a forward P/E of 149.25.  Amazon is the #3 holding in Vanguard Growth ETF, with the other two being Microsoft (fwd P/E 34.1) and Apple (fwd P/E 25.5).  I can keep pointing to growth stocks which have forward P/E below 345, if you want to argue about "value" vs "growth" stocks.

So I think you're wrong about P/E:  Tesla's forward P/E ratio is extreme.  You call everything below 345 "low P/E", even though almost all of the S&P 500 would be "low P/E" by that usage.

It's also interesting that nobody in favor of Tesla compares it to other automobile makers.  I ask repeatedly which company should Tesla be compared to, and the only answer I've gotten is Amazon.  Tesla, the car maker, should be compared to Amazon, the online sales giant.  Which again, to me makes no sense.

Tesla's "forward P/E" is now less than Amazon's even as its price has climbed. It's 3x less at Morningstar and 2x less at Yahoo compared to July. Neither institution releases what they used for production, expenses or revenue. If you can't tell how they came up with the number, don't use it.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ender on November 24, 2020, 09:05:23 AM
P/E is also a bit misleading because a company that heavily invests in itself and future growth will have a much worse P/E ratio than a company that just hoards cash.

Amazon and Tesla are both companies that have dumped huge amounts of money into growing their business.

Telsa's P/E being 345 or whatever "very high" number it is matters much less if it has a clear plan where it can be reduced significantly in the next few years.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ChpBstrd on November 24, 2020, 11:07:00 AM
OK, forget about earnings and the now 1,027 PE ratio.
Tesla's price to free cash flow is 302. So the money it internally generates that is available to reinvest in itself is 0.33% of its price.
The price to book value is 27.48. So one could take the market cap and buy everything TSLA owns 27.48 times. 

The point is this: Putting money into TSLA or keeping it there long term is 100% a bet on a narrative that involves the company reaching some point of maturity where their market share exceeds that of the world's next six largest automakers, as their market cap already does today. They will presumably do this without diluting shareholders too much because they'll use their free cash flow, which, as noted, is 0.33% of the price. Just for fun, double the numbers and see if that helps. Go wild and apply the company's 6.1% operating margin to a three or four times increase in revenue (since we're being generous, include the sale of environmental credits to fossil-fuel automakers, which accounts for 7% of revenue). Build me a 10 year model on these numbers that gets us to industry-standard margins and PE ratios for a future Tesla with Toyota-like worldwide dominance. Find a way the narrative makes sense on a spreadsheet and then we'll ask whether TSLA can outcompete VW and the Chinese automakers. Remember in your spreadsheet assumptions we are selling capital-intensive hardware, not software.

Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: mistymoney on November 24, 2020, 11:52:06 AM
https://www.benzinga.com/media/20/11/18510818/cramer-says-teslas-valuation-is-easier-to-justify-as-tech-company-not-auto

interesting take.

Quote
Cramer said the company has future catalysts that could keep people from selling the stock with China sales, the German factory taking off and news on the Cybertruck: “It’s a technology company, not an auto company.”

Cramer said if Tesla was just an automotive company, it would be harder to justify the valuation
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ChpBstrd on November 24, 2020, 12:21:47 PM
https://www.benzinga.com/media/20/11/18510818/cramer-says-teslas-valuation-is-easier-to-justify-as-tech-company-not-auto

interesting take.

Quote
Cramer said the company has future catalysts that could keep people from selling the stock with China sales, the German factory taking off and news on the Cybertruck: “It’s a technology company, not an auto company.”

Cramer said if Tesla was just an automotive company, it would be harder to justify the valuation

Does Cramer know TSLA is an auto company? I.e. it can't make copies of the model S as easily as Microsoft can make copies of Windows or Salesforce can add accounts?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: mistymoney on November 24, 2020, 12:27:36 PM
I guess you'll have to ask him yourself!
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on November 24, 2020, 01:17:24 PM
OK, forget about earnings and the now 1,027 PE ratio.
Tesla's price to free cash flow is 302. So the money it internally generates that is available to reinvest in itself is 0.33% of its price.
The price to book value is 27.48. So one could take the market cap and buy everything TSLA owns 27.48 times. 

The point is this: Putting money into TSLA or keeping it there long term is 100% a bet on a narrative that involves the company reaching some point of maturity where their market share exceeds that of the world's next six largest automakers, as their market cap already does today. They will presumably do this without diluting shareholders too much because they'll use their free cash flow, which, as noted, is 0.33% of the price. Just for fun, double the numbers and see if that helps. Go wild and apply the company's 6.1% operating margin to a three or four times increase in revenue (since we're being generous, include the sale of environmental credits to fossil-fuel automakers, which accounts for 7% of revenue). Build me a 10 year model on these numbers that gets us to industry-standard margins and PE ratios for a future Tesla with Toyota-like worldwide dominance. Find a way the narrative makes sense on a spreadsheet and then we'll ask whether TSLA can outcompete VW and the Chinese automakers. Remember in your spreadsheet assumptions we are selling capital-intensive hardware, not software.

I don't make valuations with your constrictions in mind. What you consider wild and generous, I consider a drastic low ball, especially over a 10 year period. I don't know but my assumption is you invest in stock funds and not individual companies so not sure what the point would be anyways. We both know I can't change your mind on TSLA being a good investment or not. My point is there's more to it than just putting it all on 26.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ender on November 25, 2020, 09:35:53 PM
OK, forget about earnings and the now 1,027 PE ratio.
Tesla's price to free cash flow is 302. So the money it internally generates that is available to reinvest in itself is 0.33% of its price.
The price to book value is 27.48. So one could take the market cap and buy everything TSLA owns 27.48 times. 

The point is this: Putting money into TSLA or keeping it there long term is 100% a bet on a narrative that involves the company reaching some point of maturity where their market share exceeds that of the world's next six largest automakers, as their market cap already does today. They will presumably do this without diluting shareholders too much because they'll use their free cash flow, which, as noted, is 0.33% of the price. Just for fun, double the numbers and see if that helps. Go wild and apply the company's 6.1% operating margin to a three or four times increase in revenue (since we're being generous, include the sale of environmental credits to fossil-fuel automakers, which accounts for 7% of revenue). Build me a 10 year model on these numbers that gets us to industry-standard margins and PE ratios for a future Tesla with Toyota-like worldwide dominance. Find a way the narrative makes sense on a spreadsheet and then we'll ask whether TSLA can outcompete VW and the Chinese automakers. Remember in your spreadsheet assumptions we are selling capital-intensive hardware, not software.

I don't necessarily disagree with you (having worked in multi billion dollar factories building large equipment before). My point is that PE alone doesn't tell the whole story.

That being said, I think it's batshit insane what Tesla is priced at.

Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: aspiringnomad on November 26, 2020, 07:29:40 PM
This is about where I expected TSLA to be once the market started pricing in its potential without fear of outright failure. Now that it's here, the upside is much more limited though I do think it could still ~double in the next couple years if things go well. Certainly, access to capital is no longer an issue and access to the best engineering talent still leads the field. Realistically, I should start winding down my position next calendar year when I'll have no earned income. But I have trouble letting go.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: mistymoney on November 26, 2020, 08:30:47 PM
How much do you have?

and what happened to all those people shorting tesla?  that's gotta hurt.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: aspiringnomad on November 27, 2020, 05:31:37 PM
How much do you have?

and what happened to all those people shorting tesla?  that's gotta hurt.

Rather not say, but the position grew to more than a fifth of my portfolio before I sold some shares after the split. It's creeping back up there.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on November 28, 2020, 10:55:10 AM
How much do you have?

and what happened to all those people shorting tesla?  that's gotta hurt.

Last I heard, known shorts had lost more money than Tesla has ever raised in stock sales. Billions and Billions of dollars.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: mistymoney on November 28, 2020, 12:34:18 PM
How much do you have?

and what happened to all those people shorting tesla?  that's gotta hurt.

Last I heard, known shorts had lost more money than Tesla has ever raised in stock sales. Billions and Billions of dollars.

Wow! Now shorting - that I think is the real 'gambling'. I'm not even sure how that got to be a thing, negative investing....but there ya go!
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: badger1988 on December 07, 2020, 04:56:23 PM
June 3rd, 2019:

I had been watching TSLA stock fall and following the news around the SEC fraud litigation against Musk...I very rarely purchase individual stocks, but seeing the price fall below $180 I decided I wanted to take a chance. That night, I put my three boys to bed, logged into my Vanguard Roth IRA and entered a transaction to buy ~$100,000 worth of TSLA (roughly 20% of my investment portfolio at the time). Just as I was about to submit, one of my then 3-year-old twins burst out of his bedroom needing attention. My session timed out. After reconsidering I decided to just stick with my 100% index fund strategy. 1.5 years and a 5:1 stock split later, that ~$100k gamble would be worth ~$1.8M. Of course, I surely would have sold long before now...but a guy can dream, right? On the bright side, my kids have since settled into a much better bedtime routine.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: mistymoney on December 07, 2020, 04:58:14 PM
June 3rd, 2019:

I had been watching TSLA stock fall and following the news around the SEC fraud litigation against Musk...I very rarely purchase individual stocks, but seeing the price fall below $180 I decided I wanted to take a chance. That night, I put my three boys to bed, logged into my Vanguard Roth IRA and entered a transaction to buy ~$100,000 worth of TSLA (roughly 20% of my investment portfolio at the time). Just as I was about to submit, one of my then 3-year-old twins burst out of his bedroom needing attention. My session timed out. After reconsidering I decided to just stick with my 100% index fund strategy. 1.5 years and a 5:1 stock split later, that ~$100k gamble would be worth ~$1.8M. Of course, I surely would have sold long before now...but a guy can dream, right? On the bright side, my kids have since settled into a much better bedtime routine.

oh wow! That is something to cause a few pangs for sure!

they do say that kids are expensive. ;)
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Mrs. Sloth on December 07, 2020, 05:04:47 PM
June 3rd, 2019:

I had been watching TSLA stock fall and following the news around the SEC fraud litigation against Musk...I very rarely purchase individual stocks, but seeing the price fall below $180 I decided I wanted to take a chance. That night, I put my three boys to bed, logged into my Vanguard Roth IRA and entered a transaction to buy ~$100,000 worth of TSLA (roughly 20% of my investment portfolio at the time). Just as I was about to submit, one of my then 3-year-old twins burst out of his bedroom needing attention. My session timed out. After reconsidering I decided to just stick with my 100% index fund strategy. 1.5 years and a 5:1 stock split later, that ~$100k gamble would be worth ~$1.8M. Of course, I surely would have sold long before now...but a guy can dream, right? On the bright side, my kids have since settled into a much better bedtime routine.

DANG!! Very entertaining read...glad you have a sense a humor about it with that last note about the bright side of things.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: v8rx7guy on December 07, 2020, 05:14:45 PM
Geez... another 7%
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: PaulMaxime on December 07, 2020, 07:58:51 PM
After hours it's 649.24.

Another $28 and I'll have 100x my initial investment of 8 years ago.

Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: mistymoney on December 08, 2020, 07:08:24 AM
After hours it's 649.24.

Another $28 and I'll have 100x my initial investment of 8 years ago.

oo - down so far today! but not by a whole bunch considering!
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: PaulMaxime on December 08, 2020, 10:52:12 AM
After hours it's 649.24.

Another $28 and I'll have 100x my initial investment of 8 years ago.

oo - down so far today! but not by a whole bunch considering!

Looks like they are doing another stock offering raising $5B selling shares at market. They did one of these earlier this year. At this point it's almost free money for them.

It doesn't really even take a bite out of all the shares the index funds are going to need to buy in order to rebalance into TSLA on the 21st.

Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: 3toesloth on December 10, 2020, 06:05:55 PM
As an engineer I can say that the majority of us with work experience would not work for Tesla. The ones that do start looking elsewhere real quick or are sent packing when they refuse to work crazy hours or dare to have differing opinions. They don't have any special sauce there just a bottomless credit card in the form of share issuance.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: v8rx7guy on December 22, 2020, 02:43:26 PM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-18/tesla-s-tsla-stock-price-an-army-of-millionaire-retail-traders-hold-on?utm_source=pocket-newtab
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on December 22, 2020, 07:32:41 PM
As an engineer I can say that the majority of us with work experience would not work for Tesla. The ones that do start looking elsewhere real quick or are sent packing when they refuse to work crazy hours or dare to have differing opinions. They don't have any special sauce there just a bottomless credit card in the form of share issuance.

You seem to have an irrational hatred for Tesla for someone who is simply an observer? You also repeatedly post demonstrably false information. SpaceX and Tesla are literally the most desirable employers for top US engineering graduates.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/06/the-10-most-attractive-employers-for-engineering-students.html

Unless you have firsthand experience perhaps you should stop posting about that which you know not. Please don't bother posting the anecdotal sob stories of a self-selected group of former employees. Elon is tough to work for and very demanding, so was every good coach, manager and leader I've had. The tradeoff is you literally get to help transform how society uses energy and transport people and goods or make the human race and interplanetary species. Yep, nothing to see here, just your average run-of-the mill companies.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: mistymoney on January 07, 2021, 02:53:37 PM
Telsa is working out as a great investment for some people....



https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/07/investing/elon-musk-jeff-bezos-richest-person/index.html

Elon Musk overtakes Jeff Bezos to become world's richest person
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Bloodbuzz on January 09, 2021, 08:33:19 AM
Reading this thread is very interesting - I used to be 100% in index funds and on a typical mustachian FIRE path but on a 'lower' salary and aiming for lean FIRE in about 10 years. In 2019 I decided to sell most of my index funds and buy shares in Tesla and a couple of Crispr companies. I'm now approaching my minimum leanfire target and basically saved myself 10 years of office work.

I would never say I wasn't very lucky, or that other people should follow this approach, but I do generally think that putting a bit of money (not everything obv) towards disruptive and innovative technologies is probably not a bad idea. Another useful aspect is that some extremely smart people with incredible track records (Cathie Wood, Chamath Palihapitiya etc) are putting their ideas and ways of thinking online for free.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: mizzourah2006 on January 09, 2021, 09:19:29 AM
Reading this thread is very interesting - I used to be 100% in index funds and on a typical mustachian FIRE path but on a 'lower' salary and aiming for lean FIRE in about 10 years. In 2019 I decided to sell most of my index funds and buy shares in Tesla and a couple of Crispr companies. I'm now approaching my minimum leanfire target and basically saved myself 10 years of office work.

I would never say I wasn't very lucky, or that other people should follow this approach, but I do generally think that putting a bit of money (not everything obv) towards disruptive and innovative technologies is probably not a bad idea. Another useful aspect is that some extremely smart people with incredible track records (Cathie Wood, Chamath Palihapitiya etc) are putting their ideas and ways of thinking online for free.


I don't disagree with this per se, but it's a bit of survivorship bias. Let's say that value investing was in vogue this past 3-5 years instead of emerging tech. No one would know who Cathie Wood and Charmath Palihaptiya are, but there would be 2 other people you just listed instead.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Bloodbuzz on January 09, 2021, 10:06:33 AM
Reading this thread is very interesting - I used to be 100% in index funds and on a typical mustachian FIRE path but on a 'lower' salary and aiming for lean FIRE in about 10 years. In 2019 I decided to sell most of my index funds and buy shares in Tesla and a couple of Crispr companies. I'm now approaching my minimum leanfire target and basically saved myself 10 years of office work.

I would never say I wasn't very lucky, or that other people should follow this approach, but I do generally think that putting a bit of money (not everything obv) towards disruptive and innovative technologies is probably not a bad idea. Another useful aspect is that some extremely smart people with incredible track records (Cathie Wood, Chamath Palihapitiya etc) are putting their ideas and ways of thinking online for free.


I don't disagree with this per se, but it's a bit of survivorship bias. Let's say that value investing was in vogue this past 3-5 years instead of emerging tech. No one would know who Cathie Wood and Charmath Palihaptiya are, but there would be 2 other people you just listed instead.

Yes for sure that's a good point about survivorship bias. I think its great that these days its very easy to learn about so many different investing styles, whether its MMM, Warren Buffet, Dave Ramsey, Gary Vaynerchuk etc, and then you can figure out which approach might work for you.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Roland of Gilead on January 09, 2021, 10:31:07 AM
Kind of bummed I missed out on both bitcoin and Tesla.   Bitcoin has done way better but either one would have required a crystal ball to put serious money into years ago.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: PaulMaxime on January 09, 2021, 11:30:25 AM
Telsa is working out as a great investment for some people....



https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/07/investing/elon-musk-jeff-bezos-richest-person/index.html

Elon Musk overtakes Jeff Bezos to become world's richest person

I'm one of these people. I bought Tesla stock back in Feb 2012 and am now up nearly 12900% on that initial purchase. I've bought more over the years as well.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Abe on January 09, 2021, 12:56:25 PM
Yeah I got lucky and bought it at the IPO on a whim before I had a family to look out for, then forgot for several years until we started saving money regularly. Kind of a dumb system I had, but got lucky once in my life! Definitely never doing that again and agree it's over-valued (though it'd be awesome if the battery plan comes to fruition).
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Christof on January 09, 2021, 03:39:17 PM
I'm one of these people. I bought Tesla stock back in Feb 2012 and am now up nearly 12900% on that initial purchase. I've bought more over the years as well.

Hmm, I bought ENPH (Enphase) at 1.42 two years ago and it is 170.08 today (numbers are in Euros). I also bought Libbey two years ago and it‘s worth nothing today. Both were totally random investments, because I believe that math and statistics win in the long run. That has (fortunately) nothing to do with my (in)ability to pick the right stock.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ChpBstrd on January 10, 2021, 01:15:15 PM
Reading this thread is very interesting - I used to be 100% in index funds and on a typical mustachian FIRE path but on a 'lower' salary and aiming for lean FIRE in about 10 years. In 2019 I decided to sell most of my index funds and buy shares in Tesla and a couple of Crispr companies. I'm now approaching my minimum leanfire target and basically saved myself 10 years of office work.

I would never say I wasn't very lucky, or that other people should follow this approach, but I do generally think that putting a bit of money (not everything obv) towards disruptive and innovative technologies is probably not a bad idea. Another useful aspect is that some extremely smart people with incredible track records (Cathie Wood, Chamath Palihapitiya etc) are putting their ideas and ways of thinking online for free.


I don't disagree with this per se, but it's a bit of survivorship bias. Let's say that value investing was in vogue this past 3-5 years instead of emerging tech. No one would know who Cathie Wood and Charmath Palihaptiya are, but there would be 2 other people you just listed instead.

Yes for sure that's a good point about survivorship bias. I think its great that these days its very easy to learn about so many different investing styles, whether its MMM, Warren Buffet, Dave Ramsey, Gary Vaynerchuk etc, and then you can figure out which approach might work for you.

IIRC there were a lot of people 3-5 years ago who were talking about overweighting in oil companies, Berkshire Hathaway, “dividend aristocrats”, or just shorting the market. Presumably they are all indexers by now, except for the true believers who have found a supportive information bubble community in sub-forums. Those who picked big tech, Tesla, and crypto get to hang out in the main forums. Depending on the numbers and the specifics of the future, they might be the unlucky ones.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Kroaler on January 10, 2021, 04:19:11 PM
June 3rd, 2019:

I had been watching TSLA stock fall and following the news around the SEC fraud litigation against Musk...I very rarely purchase individual stocks, but seeing the price fall below $180 I decided I wanted to take a chance. That night, I put my three boys to bed, logged into my Vanguard Roth IRA and entered a transaction to buy ~$100,000 worth of TSLA (roughly 20% of my investment portfolio at the time). Just as I was about to submit, one of my then 3-year-old twins burst out of his bedroom needing attention. My session timed out. After reconsidering I decided to just stick with my 100% index fund strategy. 1.5 years and a 5:1 stock split later, that ~$100k gamble would be worth ~$1.8M. Of course, I surely would have sold long before now...but a guy can dream, right? On the bright side, my kids have since settled into a much better bedtime routine.

DANG!! Very entertaining read...glad you have a sense a humor about it with that last note about the bright side of things.

I still look at my tesla job offer from August 2018 that came with a sign on bonus.  It would be over a million $ now.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Mrs. Sloth on January 10, 2021, 09:47:54 PM
June 3rd, 2019:

I had been watching TSLA stock fall and following the news around the SEC fraud litigation against Musk...I very rarely purchase individual stocks, but seeing the price fall below $180 I decided I wanted to take a chance. That night, I put my three boys to bed, logged into my Vanguard Roth IRA and entered a transaction to buy ~$100,000 worth of TSLA (roughly 20% of my investment portfolio at the time). Just as I was about to submit, one of my then 3-year-old twins burst out of his bedroom needing attention. My session timed out. After reconsidering I decided to just stick with my 100% index fund strategy. 1.5 years and a 5:1 stock split later, that ~$100k gamble would be worth ~$1.8M. Of course, I surely would have sold long before now...but a guy can dream, right? On the bright side, my kids have since settled into a much better bedtime routine.

DANG!! Very entertaining read...glad you have a sense a humor about it with that last note about the bright side of things.

I still look at my tesla job offer from August 2018 that came with a sign on bonus.  It would be over a million $ now.

Man... that sounds rough to me. How do you feel?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: talltexan on January 14, 2021, 08:26:18 AM
You could be forgiven for seeing what was happening in August 2018 and thinking the drama wasn't worth it.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: kenmoremmm on February 08, 2021, 11:14:56 AM
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/02/08/business/stock-market-today?type=styln-live-updates&label=business%20updates&index=1&action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage#tesla-quality-china
Quote
Chinese regulators met with executives from Tesla recently after several government agencies reported “an unusual acceleration” of complaints from consumers about battery fires and other quality issues with the company’s electric cars.

In a post on the Chinese social media platform WeChat, the State Administration for Market Regulation said officials from five government agencies interviewed Tesla executives and “asked them to strictly abide by Chinese laws and regulations, strengthen internal management, and implement corporate quality and safety regulations.”

Tesla acknowledged its “shortcomings in the business process,” and agreed to improve the quality and safety of its vehicles, the regulator said in the posting.

The electric carmaker has struggled with quality issues as it has scaled its production from tens of thousand cars a year to 500,000 in 2020. On social media, customers have documented numerous problems with new Teslas, including large gaps between body panels, poor paint jobs and chipped glass. Those complaints have been echoed in surveys about and reviews of the company’s cars by J.D. Power and Consumer Reports.

Last week, Tesla recalled 135,000 vehicles in the United States to deal with a problem with touch screens in its Model S and Model Y cars. The screens had been found to have a high rate of failures. Tesla had initially resisted recalling the cars but came under pressure to do so by the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration.

In a letter to the U.S. auto safety regulator last month, a Tesla executive said the screens, which drivers use to control many of the functions of their cars, were not meant to last more than five or six years.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: talltexan on February 09, 2021, 09:26:00 AM
The crypto- boosters around the office are celebrating Tesla's purchase of Bitcoin.

I think it's a brilliant move to get a number of new "crypto-millionaires" to buy cars from them without having to go through the hassle of converting their Bitcoin into US Dollars, potentially saving them taxes.

I also think it puts the company at risk to be caught short on cash at a time when Bitcoin is down.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: tarheeldan on February 09, 2021, 09:48:28 AM
Agree on both points,  @talltexan
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ChpBstrd on February 09, 2021, 10:06:42 AM
If Teslas are the only significant thing one can buy with Bitcoin for the next few years, that might increase sales of Teslas while at the same time slightly reducing the float of Bitcoins.

I wonder if Musk would like to hold a few tens of billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin in the Tesla treasury, because this would reduce circulation, and that would prop up the price of Bitcoin - his own little short squeeze - and would make profits look amazing while it lasts. He would have to rely on raising more dollar funds to pay expenses until employees and vendors are willing to accept Bitcoin - which means dilution.

Of course, if one wants to dilute their Tesla shares to get more Bitcoin exposure, they can just sell Bitcoin and buy Tesla. Certain investors are mesmerized by the trick though.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on February 09, 2021, 10:26:37 AM
The crypto- boosters around the office are celebrating Tesla's purchase of Bitcoin.

I think it's a brilliant move to get a number of new "crypto-millionaires" to buy cars from them without having to go through the hassle of converting their Bitcoin into US Dollars, potentially saving them taxes.

I also think it puts the company at risk to be caught short on cash at a time when Bitcoin is down.

Tesla’s stake in BTC represents 7.5% of their “cash” reserve. Based on when Tesla likely bought their BTC position, Tesla is likely up around $500 million currently. I’m neutral on this idea overall, but I don’t see it representing a significant risk to Tesla’s future.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on February 09, 2021, 10:35:48 AM
My random guess is less than 3% of Teslas will be bought in Bitcoin, but I'd be happy to have a more data driven estimate.  My estimate would be about $1 billion BTC traded for Teslas per Year.

According to Yahoo Finance, BTC has a market cap of $865 billion.  So even if Tesla gets $8 billion from selling cars and it's own purchases, that's 1% of the market cap.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD?p=BTC-USD

But you are right in one way: if Musk tweets he's trying to buy up all Bitcoin in circulation, that tweet would send BTC soaring, regardless of it's truth.  All he had to do is say Tesla is buying and accepting Bitcoin, and the price spiked over 25%!
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on February 09, 2021, 10:43:45 AM
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/02/08/business/stock-market-today?type=styln-live-updates&label=business%20updates&index=1&action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage#tesla-quality-china
Quote
Chinese regulators met with executives from Tesla recently after several government agencies reported “an unusual acceleration” of complaints from consumers about battery fires and other quality issues with the company’s electric cars.

In a post on the Chinese social media platform WeChat, the State Administration for Market Regulation said officials from five government agencies interviewed Tesla executives and “asked them to strictly abide by Chinese laws and regulations, strengthen internal management, and implement corporate quality and safety regulations.”

Tesla acknowledged its “shortcomings in the business process,” and agreed to improve the quality and safety of its vehicles, the regulator said in the posting.

The electric carmaker has struggled with quality issues as it has scaled its production from tens of thousand cars a year to 500,000 in 2020. On social media, customers have documented numerous problems with new Teslas, including large gaps between body panels, poor paint jobs and chipped glass. Those complaints have been echoed in surveys about and reviews of the company’s cars by J.D. Power and Consumer Reports.

Last week, Tesla recalled 135,000 vehicles in the United States to deal with a problem with touch screens in its Model S and Model Y cars. The screens had been found to have a high rate of failures. Tesla had initially resisted recalling the cars but came under pressure to do so by the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration.

In a letter to the U.S. auto safety regulator last month, a Tesla executive said the screens, which drivers use to control many of the functions of their cars, were not meant to last more than five or six years.

Go to 14:20 mark. Per Consumer Reports, Tesla ranked #1 in customer satisfaction by brand. Tesla Model 3 (#1), Model S (#3), Model Y (#4) and Model X (#10) all ranked in top 10 in customer satisfaction by model.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGKS0EW2SQY

All car manufacturers have recalls. Tesla recalls have been minor (in quantity and severity) by comparison, have not involved fatalities (see exploding gas tanks and Takata air bags) and many Tesla recalls have been addressed via over-the-air software updates.

Panel gaps and other aesthetic issues have been an ongoing issue that Tesla/Elon have acknowledged, but again these issues are easily fixed/addressed at the point of delivery before taking possession fo the car and overall customer satisfaction (quantifiable) is best in the business. Most Tesla owners would happily buy again. Tesla are also some of the safest cars on the road and consistently get 5-star safety ratings.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on February 09, 2021, 06:18:49 PM
I also think it puts the company at risk to be caught short on cash at a time when Bitcoin is down.

Pretty minimal risk.

Last I checked they had ~$19B in cash. The Bitcoin is a single-digit percentage of their cash on hand.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: StashingAway on February 10, 2021, 07:35:04 AM
I haven't read this whole thread, but I want to chip in a few things to consider. I'm a huge Tesla fan, but with that said I would not buy one. There are too many qc issues and big question marks with the cars. Because of that, I suspect that the stock is overvalued right now.

Issues with the cars for me:

Production QC problems. Now, this has been hammered on many forums and there is expected to be some growing pains with a new production company. I'm not necessarily knocking them for some of the issues, but others raise concern for me. Tesla just announced that they consider an expensive memory chip a "wear item" and thus doesn't qualify for a recall. I don't want a computer based vehicle to have computer based wear items. Replacing a timing belt with a computer chip (that doesn't have a service interval, btw) is a lateral move at best.

But the bigger issues are things like knobs and door handles. Teslas work great in the California climate. They have issues in the cold. If their door handles are frozen shut, their recommended fix is to warm up the car one hour before driving to defrost them. This would be OK if they did it on the roadster or maybe model S, but they are still doing bogus things like this in their current vehicles.

And speaking of door handles, every single vehicle they make has a different handle. That's not a good move for a company trying to scale decent quality vehicles. It's basically the opposite of a Toyota move, and more of an exotic car move. I don't trust that they'll keep the stock or knowledge base to fix these handles in 10 years. If it's any kind of clue as to how they are designing the rest of the vehicle, I don't trust them.

Other issues:
For the price, there are other options that meet my needs better. The Rav4 prime has Toyota quality and for all intents and purposes is a more refined model Y. Maybe it doesn't have the 0-60 times, but the doors can open in the cold. And it will be more reliable and more capable as and SUV. Plus it can do in town trips on full battery charge. Oh and Toyota has sold every single one of these made too. Or perhaps I like the 7 passenger aspect. Well, there's a Plug in Hybrid Chrysler Pacifica that is pretty sharp. Sure, it's a Chrysler, but I would trust the build quality of it over a Tesla.

Tesla pushed all of these cars into this space. I think they obviously have the best electric cars on the market. But I suspect that it will be easier for companies like GM and Toyota to move into this space than it will for Tesla to prove out their production capabilities. That's a suspicion; Tesla does have a head start, but I think that it's easy to underestimate how quickly a company can change if they put their whole weight behind a transition. For instance, BattleBorn used to be the only reasonably priced Lithium battery in the retail market. They have a 5 year head start, and still make arguably the best product. But there is now heavy competition that makes them on in a sea of options. The folks who are optimistic about Tesla should apply that optimism to Ford or Nissan too.

Self driving: To paraphrase. 95% self driving is easy to do. It's the 5% at the end that's really hard. So if we see a company with a 90% self driving car, they might still only be 1/4 of the way to a fully self driving car. I'll believe it when I see it. Until then, it's basically just lane assist.

Can you explain how Tesla Insurance increases value to the company? They're not an insurance company. Making a move like this makes sense temporarily to correct for market analysis issues but long term? I would hope that their goal is to get out of insurance industry. But perhaps I'm missing something.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: RobertFromTX on February 10, 2021, 10:17:50 AM
I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla has already unloaded a good amount of their bitcoin position now that it's public. Just juice the earnings for the year from Elon's twitter pump.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on February 10, 2021, 06:46:52 PM
Production QC problems. Now, this has been hammered on many forums and there is expected to be some growing pains with a new production company. I'm not necessarily knocking them for some of the issues, but others raise concern for me. Tesla just announced that they consider an expensive memory chip a "wear item" and thus doesn't qualify for a recall. I don't want a computer based vehicle to have computer based wear items. Replacing a timing belt with a computer chip (that doesn't have a service interval, btw) is a lateral move at best.

You fail to note they were already replacing the problem item for free for many people for months prior, and agreed to perform the recall for all users. It's extremely common for car manufacturers to declare themselves not at fault for a recall and perform the recall anyway.

Quote
For the price, there are other options that meet my needs better. The Rav4 prime has Toyota quality and for all intents and purposes is a more refined model Y.

Good luck finding one. Toyota shipped all of 4k of them to the USA in all of 2020.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: StashingAway on February 10, 2021, 07:03:54 PM

Quote
For the price, there are other options that meet my needs better. The Rav4 prime has Toyota quality and for all intents and purposes is a more refined model Y.

Good luck finding one. Toyota shipped all of 4k of them to the USA in all of 2020.

Right, but previously in the thread we used the fact that vehicles are sold out as a good metric. I am saying this a bit tongue in cheek. So Toyota wins; they sold out before the products hit the shores!

Elon Musk has also gone on the record a few times insulting the Toyota production line. Toyota has been the gold standard of industry production in general (not just in automotive). Entire classes are taught about their quality control and just in time manufacturing. I'm not sure if the comments are trolling or just completely out of touch with how insanely competitive the automotive production industry is. There is an assumption that companies like Mercedes are just twiddling their thumbs, not trying to improve. They might not be improving in EV's, but you can darn well be sure that their doors drain water properly. 

This is all constructive criticism, mind you. I want them to do good!

BTW, prediction that the cybertruck doesn't look anything like the prototype. Reason: it won't meet pedestrian and crash requirements and they will have to change the structure of the vehicle. I hope I'm wrong on this too. If it looks reasonably close to the prototype I might still buy one despite it being anti-mustachian. So I'm not anti-Tesla, I just think they are in for a reality check once the early adopter phase ends.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: talltexan on February 11, 2021, 06:53:41 AM
My random guess is less than 3% of Teslas will be bought in Bitcoin, but I'd be happy to have a more data driven estimate.  My estimate would be about $1 billion BTC traded for Teslas per Year.

According to Yahoo Finance, BTC has a market cap of $865 billion.  So even if Tesla gets $8 billion from selling cars and it's own purchases, that's 1% of the market cap.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD?p=BTC-USD

But you are right in one way: if Musk tweets he's trying to buy up all Bitcoin in circulation, that tweet would send BTC soaring, regardless of it's truth.  All he had to do is say Tesla is buying and accepting Bitcoin, and the price spiked over 25%!

Musk's tweets about $TSLA stock...could lead to possible criminal exposure for Musk.

Musk's tweets about Bitcoin...no path to criminal exposure?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: theoverlook on February 11, 2021, 08:03:07 AM

And speaking of door handles, every single vehicle they make has a different handle. That's not a good move for a company trying to scale decent quality vehicles. It's basically the opposite of a Toyota move, and more of an exotic car move. I don't trust that they'll keep the stock or knowledge base to fix these handles in 10 years. If it's any kind of clue as to how they are designing the rest of the vehicle, I don't trust them.


I doubt there's a single Toyota model that shares door handles with a different Toyota model. Maybe back in the 70s, or maybe between trim levels of the same vehicle, but say a modern Camry vs Corolla vs Rav4? No way. That's one of the simplest things to change and makes an enormous difference in the appearance of the vehicle.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: mistymoney on February 11, 2021, 08:42:24 AM
https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/11/investing/elon-musk-pay-wealth-tesla-stock-options/index.html

Quote
[Musk] received four grants to buy 8.4 million Tesla shares in 2020. After paying the exercise price, those blocks of stock options were each worth $6.2 billion at Wednesday's closing price. The combined $24.8 billion value of those options alone is more than Musk was worth a year ago when Forbes calculated its billionaire's list, when he was ranked as the world's 31st richest person.
2021 and 2022 could be nearly as lucrative for him.
The company's annual financial filing this week disclosed that Musk will probably receive three additional options grants this year, each as large and as lucrative as those he received in 2020.

At current values, those three options tranches would be worth $18.6 billion.
Analysts are now forecasting that Tesla's 2022 financial results will likewise reach heights that would bring Musk three additional blocks of options. Tesla could hit one of those profit targets in 2021, which would mean Musk could match the four tranches of options he received last year.
Few investors are complaining about Musk's pay.
The stock's 743% rise in 2020 made it the stock market's biggest winner, as well as one of the most valuable companies in the world. That has quieted most of the criticism he might have faced.
"The cachet of Tesla is Musk," said Daniel Ives, tech analyst for Wedbush Securities. "The reason investors have not batted an eyelash is that due to Musk's strategic direction, Tesla is on top of the EV [electric vehicles] mountain going to the golden age of EVs. And he's put Tesla on the cusp of being a trillion-dollar market cap company."
The rise in Tesla's stock price, and his options to buy new shares, has made Musk the richest person on the planet, according to Bloomberg, surpassing Amazon (AMZN) founder Jeff Bezos.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-vanguard-group-stock-purchase-6-1-percent/
Quote

Vanguard Group Inc, after a Form 13G filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission shows the firm purchased 57,814,310 shares of the automaker’s common stock. This makes Vanguard a 6.1% shareholder of the company, trailing only Elon Musk and another institutional investor in terms of holdings.

Vanguard filed the 13G filing with the SEC on February 10th with immediate effect. A document that discloses Vanguard’s purchase certifies the investment firm’s large-scale investment, making it the second-largest institutional shareholder of Tesla stock behind Susquehanna Securities, which owns 60.7 million shares, representing 6.5% of total ownership.


we are all tesla investors now, musk will rule the world as richest dude, let's all clasp hands and sing kumbaya, and then drive off into the sunset in our new and shiny electric vehicles.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on February 11, 2021, 10:14:52 AM
Can you explain how Tesla Insurance increases value to the company? They're not an insurance company. Making a move like this makes sense temporarily to correct for market analysis issues but long term? I would hope that their goal is to get out of insurance industry. But perhaps I'm missing something.

Tesla FSD is way more than lane assist. You are correct that solving the edge cases is a huge part of the undertaking, but have you watched recent video’s of Tesla’s FSD beta in real world situations. I’ve witnessed cars on autopilot, swerve to miss a car backing out of driveway, going on to the shoulder, without driver intervention. In another scenario, an Amazon truck was parked on the shoulder, taking up half of the Tesla’s lane. Another car traveling in the opposite direction arrived at the parked Amazon delivery van at the same time. At this exact moment the Amazon delivery driver blindly hopped put of the driver side door into the Tesla’s lane of traffic. The oncoming car did not stop or react to the situation. Without human intervention, the Tesla vehicle instantaneously registered the human presence and applied the break avoiding a serious injury or death to the Amazon driver. I’d say less than half of human drivers would have responded correctly and in time in that exact situation.

So, how does Tesla make money on insurance? Simple, if Tesla vehicles, operating on autopilot reduce accidents by 50-90% then insurance rates go down. Since Tesla vehicles log all miles driven by Tesla vehicles, Tesla Insurance can tailor rates based on human driving behavior (i.e., rapid acceleration, hard breaking, etc.). Lastly, each Tesla vehicle has 8 external cameras. Any accident will have video evidence of who was at fault. This will greatly reduce the number of no fault, hit and run, and vandalism payouts by Tesla Insurance. Again, reducing rates for customers and profitability for Tesla Insurance.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on February 11, 2021, 10:25:04 AM

Tesla pushed all of these cars into this space. I think they obviously have the best electric cars on the market. But I suspect that it will be easier for companies like GM and Toyota to move into this space than it will for Tesla to prove out their production capabilities. That's a suspicion; Tesla does have a head start, but I think that it's easy to underestimate how quickly a company can change if they put their whole weight behind a transition. For instance, BattleBorn used to be the only reasonably priced Lithium battery in the retail market. They have a 5 year head start, and still make arguably the best product. But there is now heavy competition that makes them on in a sea of options. The folks who are optimistic about Tesla should apply that optimism to Ford or Nissan too.


Exactly, that’s why I’m sitting here reading this thread on my Blackberry smartphone, watching movies on Blockbuster on demand streaming, taking pictures with my Kodak digital camera, and ordering packages online from K-Mart. Incumbents are notorious for having blind spots when it comes to disruption. Corporate culture and knowledge base is very hard to change. Sacrificing short-term profit for long-term transformation even harder. Some of the automotive incumbents will inevitably survive (Ford, VW, BMW, Toyota), but many will not (GM, FIAT/Chrysler). I won’t list out all the reasons why again, you can dig back through my posts on this thread if you care to. Suffice it to say, people have been saying the challengers will easily catch-up to Tesla for years, and the gap has only grown.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: StashingAway on February 11, 2021, 01:28:25 PM

Tesla pushed all of these cars into this space. I think they obviously have the best electric cars on the market. But I suspect that it will be easier for companies like GM and Toyota to move into this space than it will for Tesla to prove out their production capabilities. That's a suspicion; Tesla does have a head start, but I think that it's easy to underestimate how quickly a company can change if they put their whole weight behind a transition. For instance, BattleBorn used to be the only reasonably priced Lithium battery in the retail market. They have a 5 year head start, and still make arguably the best product. But there is now heavy competition that makes them on in a sea of options. The folks who are optimistic about Tesla should apply that optimism to Ford or Nissan too.


Exactly, that’s why I’m sitting here reading this thread on my Blackberry smartphone, watching movies on Blockbuster on demand streaming, taking pictures with my Kodak digital camera, and ordering packages online from K-Mart. Incumbents are notorious for having blind spots when it comes to disruption. Corporate culture and knowledge base is very hard to change. Sacrificing short-term profit for long-term transformation even harder. Some of the automotive incumbents will inevitably survive (Ford, VW, BMW, Toyota), but many will not (GM, FIAT/Chrysler). I won’t list out all the reasons why again, you can dig back through my posts on this thread if you care to. Suffice to save, people have been sayingthe challengers will easily catch-up to Tesla for years, and the gap has only grown.

You are being very defensive. I don't have the energy or ability to type book long responses to your Gish Gallop of information. This might be hard to believe, but I could state your position in a way that you would agree with. I've been there, I understand the arguments. I get that Sears was in a position to be Amazon before Amazon was. None of this is new to me, and you aren't dropping any bombshells.

Do you think that Toyota knows less about running quality production on vehicle assembly than Tesla? Do you think the "move fast and break things" mindset of silicone valley will play out well on products and reputations that take decades to establish?

The bolded statement has been taken for truth, but there some current thinking that it is may be a poor model to use for projecting success. Basically, it's riddled with cognitive biases that are impossible to overcome, so it is effectively useless in anything but hindsight.

Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: StashingAway on February 11, 2021, 01:34:39 PM
So, how does Tesla make money on insurance? Simple, if Tesla vehicles, operating on autopilot reduce accidents by 50-90% then insurance rates go down. Since Tesla vehicles log all miles driven by Tesla vehicles, Tesla Insurance can tailor rates based on human driving behavior (i.e., rapid acceleration, hard breaking, etc.). Lastly, each Tesla vehicle has 8 external cameras. Any accident will have video evidence of who was at fault. This will greatly reduce the number of no fault, hit and run, and vandalism payouts by Tesla Insurance. Again, reducing rates for customers and profitability for Tesla Insurance.

How on earth do you think Tesla will be more capable at heuristics than ACTUAL insurance companies? Once other insurance companies have the data points, they will be able to accurately price in how much it costs to insure a Tesla. How do you think other insurance companies work? If Allstate uses crash records from the last 5 years and find that Teslas are cheaper to insure, they will offer a lower rate. Tesla can offer zero benefit here, with the exception that they might have more confidence in their vehicles before the data points play out on the streets. But real world data will quickly catch up and make that point moot (and perhaps Tesla might be overconfident and lose money on the deal)

I haven't seen a reason yet why Tesla insurance would be better that Allstate in the long run.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on February 11, 2021, 01:44:36 PM
So, how does Tesla make money on insurance? Simple, if Tesla vehicles, operating on autopilot reduce accidents by 50-90% then insurance rates go down. Since Tesla vehicles log all miles driven by Tesla vehicles, Tesla Insurance can tailor rates based on human driving behavior (i.e., rapid acceleration, hard breaking, etc.). Lastly, each Tesla vehicle has 8 external cameras. Any accident will have video evidence of who was at fault. This will greatly reduce the number of no fault, hit and run, and vandalism payouts by Tesla Insurance. Again, reducing rates for customers and profitability for Tesla Insurance.

How on earth do you think Tesla will be more capable at heuristics than ACTUAL insurance companies? Once other insurance companies have the data points, they will be able to accurately price in how much it costs to insure a Tesla. How do you think other insurance companies work? If Allstate uses crash records from the last 5 years and find that Teslas are cheaper to insure, they will offer a lower rate. Tesla can offer zero benefit here, with the exception that they might have more confidence in their vehicles before the data points play out on the streets. But real world data will quickly catch up and make that point moot (and perhaps Tesla might be overconfident and lose money on the deal)

I haven't seen a reason yet why Tesla insurance would be better that Allstate in the long run.

I won’t accuse you of being defensive for responding with your opinion. Other insurance companies will not have access to Tesla’s database of user mileage (billions of miles) that Tesla has been collecting to hone their FSD. That will be unique to Tesla Insurance when setting rates for Tesla drivers. I’d also argue Tesla customers are fiercely loyal and are very likely to take the Tesla Insurance when offered in their state over any competitor. Tesla produces the safest cars on the road, so insuring a fleet of Tesla vehicles will inherently be cheaper than insuring a cross-section of random ICE vehicles without the safety features, exterior cameras, FSD capabilities, etc.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: tarheeldan on February 11, 2021, 01:57:15 PM
Also Tesla's autonomous fleet will be its own biggest customer
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on February 11, 2021, 02:15:28 PM

Tesla pushed all of these cars into this space. I think they obviously have the best electric cars on the market. But I suspect that it will be easier for companies like GM and Toyota to move into this space than it will for Tesla to prove out their production capabilities. That's a suspicion; Tesla does have a head start, but I think that it's easy to underestimate how quickly a company can change if they put their whole weight behind a transition. For instance, BattleBorn used to be the only reasonably priced Lithium battery in the retail market. They have a 5 year head start, and still make arguably the best product. But there is now heavy competition that makes them on in a sea of options. The folks who are optimistic about Tesla should apply that optimism to Ford or Nissan too.


Exactly, that’s why I’m sitting here reading this thread on my Blackberry smartphone, watching movies on Blockbuster on demand streaming, taking pictures with my Kodak digital camera, and ordering packages online from K-Mart. Incumbents are notorious for having blind spots when it comes to disruption. Corporate culture and knowledge base is very hard to change. Sacrificing short-term profit for long-term transformation even harder. Some of the automotive incumbents will inevitably survive (Ford, VW, BMW, Toyota), but many will not (GM, FIAT/Chrysler). I won’t list out all the reasons why again, you can dig back through my posts on this thread if you care to. Suffice to save, people have been sayingthe challengers will easily catch-up to Tesla for years, and the gap has only grown.

You are being very defensive. I don't have the energy or ability to type book long responses to your Gish Gallop of information. This might be hard to believe, but I could state your position in a way that you would agree with. I've been there, I understand the arguments. I get that Sears was in a position to be Amazon before Amazon was. None of this is new to me, and you aren't dropping any bombshells.

Do you think that Toyota knows less about running quality production on vehicle assembly than Tesla? Do you think the "move fast and break things" mindset of silicone valley will play out well on products and reputations that take decades to establish?

The bolded statement has been taken for truth, but there some current thinking that it is may be a poor model to use for projecting success. Basically, it's riddled with cognitive biases that are impossible to overcome, so it is effectively useless in anything but hindsight.

It’s true. I’m not dropping any bombshells and I’ll have to look up Gish Gallop? It is well established and repeated throughout history that the incumbent that is being disrupted rarely sees the future until it's too late. Incumbents by their very nature are not nimble and are entrenched in the current way of doing things the way they’ve always been done. The surprise here is that you believe disruption of the auto industry would be different from nearly every other major technological disruption and this time the incumbents nimbly adapt, survive, and beat the innovator at their own game.

Could GM spend 10s of billions to:

-build out a supercharger network worldwide

-replace their ICE engineers with expertise in software and battery tech

-design and build out their own battery cell manufacturing capacity or secure scarce capacity from a cell provider

-sacrifice short-term quarterly profits and dividends, thus angering share holders in the process

-retrain and retool their entire network of dealerships and repair shops to sell and service EVs while still maintaining service and sales for their existing ICE customers

-cannabilize their own profitable ICE vehicle lines to promote their new generation of EVs. Then convince customers to not go with the dedicated leader in EV tech, which is Tesla.

-retool production to build EVs that have to be designed from the ground up

-find and secure new EV part suppliers (GM is not vertically integrated to the extent Tesla is)

-convince their independently owned dealerships to promote nearly maintenance free EVs over ICE sales when dealers rely heavily on ongoing maintenance and repairs of ICE vehicles for profitability; and

-keep their labor unions happy during all this disruption.[/li][/list]


Sure, its all possible in theory, but I’d much rather be in Tesla’s shoes.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Christof on February 11, 2021, 02:48:16 PM
That is what VW is trying to do right now, and it‘s a huge bet even for one of the largest car manufacturers on the face of the earth.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on February 12, 2021, 09:19:16 AM

Tesla pushed all of these cars into this space. I think they obviously have the best electric cars on the market. But I suspect that it will be easier for companies like GM and Toyota to move into this space than it will for Tesla to prove out their production capabilities. That's a suspicion; Tesla does have a head start, but I think that it's easy to underestimate how quickly a company can change if they put their whole weight behind a transition. For instance, BattleBorn used to be the only reasonably priced Lithium battery in the retail market. They have a 5 year head start, and still make arguably the best product. But there is now heavy competition that makes them on in a sea of options. The folks who are optimistic about Tesla should apply that optimism to Ford or Nissan too.


Exactly, that’s why I’m sitting here reading this thread on my Blackberry smartphone, watching movies on Blockbuster on demand streaming, taking pictures with my Kodak digital camera, and ordering packages online from K-Mart. Incumbents are notorious for having blind spots when it comes to disruption. Corporate culture and knowledge base is very hard to change. Sacrificing short-term profit for long-term transformation even harder. Some of the automotive incumbents will inevitably survive (Ford, VW, BMW, Toyota), but many will not (GM, FIAT/Chrysler). I won’t list out all the reasons why again, you can dig back through my posts on this thread if you care to. Suffice to save, people have been sayingthe challengers will easily catch-up to Tesla for years, and the gap has only grown.

You are being very defensive. I don't have the energy or ability to type book long responses to your Gish Gallop of information. This might be hard to believe, but I could state your position in a way that you would agree with. I've been there, I understand the arguments. I get that Sears was in a position to be Amazon before Amazon was. None of this is new to me, and you aren't dropping any bombshells.

Do you think that Toyota knows less about running quality production on vehicle assembly than Tesla? Do you think the "move fast and break things" mindset of silicone valley will play out well on products and reputations that take decades to establish?

The bolded statement has been taken for truth, but there some current thinking that it is may be a poor model to use for projecting success. Basically, it's riddled with cognitive biases that are impossible to overcome, so it is effectively useless in anything but hindsight.



The Malcolm Gladwell book David and Goliath is about this phenomena. Of course it's not truth. You can find anecdotal evidence in both directions. Despite whatever "current thinking" means, investment relies on a variety of models to project success. You could even turn it around and have the perspective of Tesla being the Goliath because it currently is in electric vehicle sales. But you need some method to make a decision. You're right: Toyota definitely knows how to align body panels on a frame and produce a great ICE and hybrid cars. It seems likely EVs will become dominate consumer products toward the mid and end of this decade for transportation. How useful is the cognitive model that manufacturing and selling an ICE vehicle is the same as an EV? It hasn't been very useful in projecting Tesla's demise so far.

In investing, the only true model is the future is unclear. It's also the most useless.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on February 12, 2021, 10:16:38 AM
So, how does Tesla make money on insurance? Simple, if Tesla vehicles, operating on autopilot reduce accidents by 50-90% then insurance rates go down. Since Tesla vehicles log all miles driven by Tesla vehicles, Tesla Insurance can tailor rates based on human driving behavior (i.e., rapid acceleration, hard breaking, etc.). Lastly, each Tesla vehicle has 8 external cameras. Any accident will have video evidence of who was at fault. This will greatly reduce the number of no fault, hit and run, and vandalism payouts by Tesla Insurance. Again, reducing rates for customers and profitability for Tesla Insurance.

How on earth do you think Tesla will be more capable at heuristics than ACTUAL insurance companies? Once other insurance companies have the data points, they will be able to accurately price in how much it costs to insure a Tesla. How do you think other insurance companies work? If Allstate uses crash records from the last 5 years and find that Teslas are cheaper to insure, they will offer a lower rate. Tesla can offer zero benefit here, with the exception that they might have more confidence in their vehicles before the data points play out on the streets. But real world data will quickly catch up and make that point moot (and perhaps Tesla might be overconfident and lose money on the deal)

I haven't seen a reason yet why Tesla insurance would be better that Allstate in the long run.

Because Tesla can get more detailed driving data on its drivers than All State can from any car. Tesla can determine how much a particular person drives on Tuesday and how fast. What routes they use. If a person keeps their tires inflated. Beamed from the car right to their database at any time. How does All State get that kind of data?

I don’t know if that’ll make pricing better or not. It will be the first pricing related to behavior in relatively real time though. The goal might be to influence good driving behavior directly through consumer price rather than reducing repair costs.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: mistymoney on February 12, 2021, 11:09:45 AM
So, how does Tesla make money on insurance? Simple, if Tesla vehicles, operating on autopilot reduce accidents by 50-90% then insurance rates go down. Since Tesla vehicles log all miles driven by Tesla vehicles, Tesla Insurance can tailor rates based on human driving behavior (i.e., rapid acceleration, hard breaking, etc.). Lastly, each Tesla vehicle has 8 external cameras. Any accident will have video evidence of who was at fault. This will greatly reduce the number of no fault, hit and run, and vandalism payouts by Tesla Insurance. Again, reducing rates for customers and profitability for Tesla Insurance.

How on earth do you think Tesla will be more capable at heuristics than ACTUAL insurance companies? Once other insurance companies have the data points, they will be able to accurately price in how much it costs to insure a Tesla. How do you think other insurance companies work? If Allstate uses crash records from the last 5 years and find that Teslas are cheaper to insure, they will offer a lower rate. Tesla can offer zero benefit here, with the exception that they might have more confidence in their vehicles before the data points play out on the streets. But real world data will quickly catch up and make that point moot (and perhaps Tesla might be overconfident and lose money on the deal)

I haven't seen a reason yet why Tesla insurance would be better that Allstate in the long run.

Because Tesla can get more detailed driving data on its drivers than All State can from any car. Tesla can determine how much a particular person drives on Tuesday and how fast. What routes they use. If a person keeps their tires inflated. Beamed from the car right to their database at any time. How does All State get that kind of data?

I don’t know if that’ll make pricing better or not. It will be the first pricing related to behavior in relatively real time though. The goal might be to influence good driving behavior directly through consumer price rather than reducing repair costs.

What? I'm a bit outraged here, frankly.

Are you seriously telling me that these 'cars of the future' don't automatically properly inflate all tires to optimal levels every time you turn them on?

ripped off!
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ChpBstrd on February 12, 2021, 11:17:12 AM
If Teslas are the only significant thing one can buy with Bitcoin for the next few years, that might increase sales of Teslas while at the same time slightly reducing the float of Bitcoins.

I wonder if Musk would like to hold a few tens of billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin in the Tesla treasury, because this would reduce circulation, and that would prop up the price of Bitcoin - his own little short squeeze - and would make profits look amazing while it lasts. He would have to rely on raising more dollar funds to pay expenses until employees and vendors are willing to accept Bitcoin - which means dilution.


You heard it first here!
https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2021/02/12/as-bitcoin-soars-toward-50000-data-reveals-tesla-billionaire-elon-musk-triggered-a-12-billion-bitcoin-price-short-squeeze/?sh=72f519cf219e (https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2021/02/12/as-bitcoin-soars-toward-50000-data-reveals-tesla-billionaire-elon-musk-triggered-a-12-billion-bitcoin-price-short-squeeze/?sh=72f519cf219e)
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: StashingAway on February 16, 2021, 10:00:34 AM
Because Tesla can get more detailed driving data on its drivers than All State can from any car. Tesla can determine how much a particular person drives on Tuesday and how fast. What routes they use. If a person keeps their tires inflated. Beamed from the car right to their database at any time. How does All State get that kind of data?

I don’t know if that’ll make pricing better or not. It will be the first pricing related to behavior in relatively real time though. The goal might be to influence good driving behavior directly through consumer price rather than reducing repair costs.

Yeah this is wrong. There are already insurance companies doing this. Or near enough to not make a difference. It's not a very popular insurance method, yet.

https://www.wired.com/2016/11/car-insurance-pricing-broken-phone-fix/

How does All State get that kind of data?

It's called Drivewise.
https://www.allstate.com/drive-wise.aspx\

In State Farm it's called Drive Safe. Progressive calls it Snapshot. SmartRide from Nationwide. Etc.

The issue is that Tesla is a tech company with poor customer service who is having trouble getting body panels to line up on a luxury sedan and you are saying that they are increasing their value by adding Insurance to their portfolio. I am suggesting that they are already in over their head and need to make sure that their 15inch screen that has the only controls for the car can last longer than 5 years (which they haven't).

The point isn't that they are ahead of the game on electric cars, it's that early adopters are usually incredibly forgiving for production mishaps, but that's a poor predictor of how well this will all play out. Perhaps Tesla is like blackberry, where they appear to be market dominant and have all of the production in the right places, but perhaps they aren't the most valuable car company in the world. We will find out.

I really do hope they iron out the issues. They seem to be treating cars like throwaway appliances, replaceable in a few years by a newer version, which in my opinion isn't a good use of resources.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: StashingAway on February 16, 2021, 10:17:56 AM
Could GM spend 10s of billions to:

-build out a supercharger network worldwide

-replace their ICE engineers with expertise in software and battery tech

-design and build out their own battery cell manufacturing capacity or secure scarce capacity from a cell provider

-sacrifice short-term quarterly profits and dividends, thus angering share holders in the process

-retrain and retool their entire network of dealerships and repair shops to sell and service EVs while still maintaining service and sales for their existing ICE customers

-cannabilize their own profitable ICE vehicle lines to promote their new generation of EVs. Then convince customers to not go with the dedicated leader in EV tech, which is Tesla.

-retool production to build EVs that have to be designed from the ground up

-find and secure new EV part suppliers (GM is not vertically integrated to the extent Tesla is)

-convince their independently owned dealerships to promote nearly maintenance free EVs over ICE sales when dealers rely heavily on ongoing maintenance and repairs of ICE vehicles for profitability; and

-keep their labor unions happy during all this disruption.[/li][/list]


Sure, its all possible in theory, but I’d much rather be in Tesla’s shoes.

I don't see why not. Weirder things have happened.

One of my favorite things about Tesla is their direct to customer sales. But I am seeing that trend being pushed into the other manufacturers. I appreciate that Tesla did this, but it doesn't mean that they're the only ones who can.

I am cautiously optimistic about them, but the religious devotion makes me cringe. And I want to apply that same optimism to other brands. There are tons of smart engineers at Ford and Chevy and Toyota who would probably love to convert time and energy to EVs. Many smart people work at other companies and they didn't up and move their families to the draining work schedule in an expensive city (San Fran). Just because Tesla can draw upon hard working young devoted engineers doesn't mean they have a monopoly on innovation. I personally would rather live and work at Toyota in Plano, Texas than Tesla in San Fran (I'm not joking).
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: StashingAway on February 16, 2021, 10:27:24 AM
I won’t accuse you of being defensive for responding with your opinion.

Fair enough. I was not having a great day and perhaps should not have been posting online. I appreciate you not escalating it.

Tesla produces the safest cars on the road, so insuring a fleet of Tesla vehicles will inherently be cheaper than insuring a cross-section of random ICE vehicles without the safety features, exterior cameras, FSD capabilities, etc.

Presumably, Teslas will be cheaper to insure across all insurance platforms because of this. Tesla won't have some kind of magically lower risk based on who the insurer is. And just because they are cheaper on the insured's side doesn't mean they are cheaper for the insurer. Those are independent of each other.

The thing is, there may be upside to Tesla insurance, but it doesn't account for any of the potential downsides when valuating it. There are ways to lose money on insurance. There are ways to lose customers with poor service. There are laws and regulations in the industry regarding paying out settlements that Tesla will have to adapt to. They will have to staff another division (not related to vehicles or electric at all). Mr. Musk will have to devote a small amount of time making decisions about insurance that he could otherwise spend on making better rockets. I am just giving examples; maybe none of this will happen. But there is an opportunity cost here and companies have definitely failed by spreading themselves too thin.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on February 16, 2021, 12:06:49 PM
Because Tesla can get more detailed driving data on its drivers than All State can from any car. Tesla can determine how much a particular person drives on Tuesday and how fast. What routes they use. If a person keeps their tires inflated. Beamed from the car right to their database at any time. How does All State get that kind of data?

I don’t know if that’ll make pricing better or not. It will be the first pricing related to behavior in relatively real time though. The goal might be to influence good driving behavior directly through consumer price rather than reducing repair costs.

Yeah this is wrong. There are already insurance companies doing this. Or near enough to not make a difference. It's not a very popular insurance method, yet.

https://www.wired.com/2016/11/car-insurance-pricing-broken-phone-fix/

How does All State get that kind of data?

It's called Drivewise.
https://www.allstate.com/drive-wise.aspx\

In State Farm it's called Drive Safe. Progressive calls it Snapshot. SmartRide from Nationwide. Etc.

The issue is that Tesla is a tech company with poor customer service who is having trouble getting body panels to line up on a luxury sedan and you are saying that they are increasing their value by adding Insurance to their portfolio. I am suggesting that they are already in over their head and need to make sure that their 15inch screen that has the only controls for the car can last longer than 5 years (which they haven't).

The point isn't that they are ahead of the game on electric cars, it's that early adopters are usually incredibly forgiving for production mishaps, but that's a poor predictor of how well this will all play out. Perhaps Tesla is like blackberry, where they appear to be market dominant and have all of the production in the right places, but perhaps they aren't the most valuable car company in the world. We will find out.

I really do hope they iron out the issues. They seem to be treating cars like throwaway appliances, replaceable in a few years by a newer version, which in my opinion isn't a good use of resources.

Critics often focus on panel gaps. These are an issue in some of Tesla vehicles, no argument there. If owners notice panel gaps they can get them fixed before taking delivery of the car at no cost. Obviously, having panel gaps is not ideal, but it is not a performance or safety issue, like air bags that kill people or gas tanks that explode upon rear impact. Every manufacturer has recalls, Tesla can and is fixing the touch screen issue on a select number of early production vehicles. This is not even close to VW diesel gate or Takata air bags. I question the objectivity of those who focus on panel gaps while seeming to ignore the bigger picture, which is Tesla is creating some of the highest performing and safest production vehicles on the road. Vehicles that offer a total cost of ownership way below comparable ICE vehicles when you factor in fuel and maintenance savings. Are way better for the environment. Are capable of going 500k or more miles on the original electric drive drain and battery pack, providing more than double the life expectancy of an ICE vehicle. Its silly to say Tesla is making “throw away” vehicles given these realities. Panel gaps is the proverbial tree in the big ole forest.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: StashingAway on February 16, 2021, 01:10:50 PM

Critics often focus on panel gaps. These are an issue in some of Tesla vehicles, no argument there. If owners notice panel gaps they can get them fixed before taking delivery of the car at no cost. Obviously, having panel gaps is not ideal, but it is not a performance or safety issue, like air bags that kill people or gas tanks that explode upon rear impact. Every manufacturer has recalls, Tesla can and is fixing the touch screen issue on a select number of early production vehicles. This is not even close to VW diesel gate or Takata air bags. I question the objectivity of those who focus on panel gaps while seeming to ignore the bigger picture, which is Tesla is creating some of the highest performing and safest production vehicles on the road. Vehicles that offer a total cost of ownership way below comparable ICE vehicles when you factor in fuel and maintenance savings. Are way better for the environment. Are capable of going 500k or more miles on the original electric drive drain and battery pack, providing more than double the life expectancy of an ICE vehicle. Its silly to say Tesla is making “throw away” vehicles given these realities. Panel gaps is the proverbial tree in the big ole forest.

Panel gaps are a tree in a forest, that's very true. I use them to represent my hesitancy to trust that they can make the rest of the car right. There are countless multiple hour long breakdowns of major issues of Tesla manufacturing. I'm sure you've read or watched them. The panel gaps are a quick reference to the situation as a whole.

And keep in mind, I'm not necessarily saying that Tesla makes a crap car. I'm saying I wouldn't own one, despite really wanting to. And I wouldn't own one because from what I've seen, they cut corners when manufacturing cars. Maybe they are corners that need to be cut, but I'll let others continue to be the guinea pigs on that one.

I'm not sure why you brought up Takata air bags; that recall also affected early model Teslas produced during the recall period.

With this whole conversation, I want to remind that we are not discussing whether or not Tesla is a successful company or likely to fail, we are talking about whether or not Tesla is worth more than Toyota, Nissan, GM, Ford, and Volkswagon combined, which, on the face of it is absurd (to me). Maybe I'm wrong. I don't see it.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Kroaler on February 16, 2021, 01:45:45 PM
I worked on the floor at another premium auto manufacturing as a robot tech.

I have also toured the Tesla factory.  They started way behind the other players as far as process and efficiency goes but are incredibly agile. Very ambitious goals. I believe they will soon *if not already* blow by all the competition on manufacturing excellence due to their agile nature and rapid continued improvement.

But no way their market value is right.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on February 17, 2021, 11:03:56 AM

Critics often focus on panel gaps. These are an issue in some of Tesla vehicles, no argument there. If owners notice panel gaps they can get them fixed before taking delivery of the car at no cost. Obviously, having panel gaps is not ideal, but it is not a performance or safety issue, like air bags that kill people or gas tanks that explode upon rear impact. Every manufacturer has recalls, Tesla can and is fixing the touch screen issue on a select number of early production vehicles. This is not even close to VW diesel gate or Takata air bags. I question the objectivity of those who focus on panel gaps while seeming to ignore the bigger picture, which is Tesla is creating some of the highest performing and safest production vehicles on the road. Vehicles that offer a total cost of ownership way below comparable ICE vehicles when you factor in fuel and maintenance savings. Are way better for the environment. Are capable of going 500k or more miles on the original electric drive drain and battery pack, providing more than double the life expectancy of an ICE vehicle. Its silly to say Tesla is making “throw away” vehicles given these realities. Panel gaps is the proverbial tree in the big ole forest.

Panel gaps are a tree in a forest, that's very true. I use them to represent my hesitancy to trust that they can make the rest of the car right. There are countless multiple hour long breakdowns of major issues of Tesla manufacturing. I'm sure you've read or watched them. The panel gaps are a quick reference to the situation as a whole.

And keep in mind, I'm not necessarily saying that Tesla makes a crap car. I'm saying I wouldn't own one, despite really wanting to. And I wouldn't own one because from what I've seen, they cut corners when manufacturing cars. Maybe they are corners that need to be cut, but I'll let others continue to be the guinea pigs on that one.

I'm not sure why you brought up Takata air bags; that recall also affected early model Teslas produced during the recall period.

With this whole conversation, I want to remind that we are not discussing whether or not Tesla is a successful company or likely to fail, we are talking about whether or not Tesla is worth more than Toyota, Nissan, GM, Ford, and Volkswagon combined, which, on the face of it is absurd (to me). Maybe I'm wrong. I don't see it.

So, if panel gaps are a deal breaker, I assume you’ll never buy from:

-Toyota after they had to recall 9.3 million vehicles due to unintended acceleration that killed 89 customers.

-Ford after tire tread separation and sudden blowouts left 271 dead. Or the 823 rollover deaths resulting from the faulty design of their Bronco. Or the 14 million Ford vehicles recalled to due cruise control deactivation switch fires.

-Volkswagen after they cooked the books for the diesel vehicle emissions. Of the 300k vehicles recalled due to fuel pump failure that lead to stalls at speed.

-GM after they recalled 2.6 million vehicles for faulty ignition switches that killed 303 customers.

-Fiat/Chyrsler after exploding gas tanks during low speed collisions resulted in 478 deaths and the company finally recalled 2.7 million vehicles 15 years after the first deaths!

I’m pretty sure a panel gap never killed or injured anyone. Tesla’s don’t have fuel tanks, fuel pumps, ignition switches, or single rollover death that I’m aware. IN fact, all of Tesla’s recalls have been for minor issues and not a single death has been attributed to a Tesla recall.

In 2020, there was a Tesla vehicle fire every 205 million miles. According to the National Fire Protection Association and the U.S. Department of Transportation, there is a vehicle fire once every 19 million miles. But, the panel gaps...

Tesla holds five star safety ratings on all four of its production vehicles. Tesla’s Model Y had the lowest rollover risk of any vehicle ever tested by NHSTA. The Model S, Model X, and Model 3 have all achieved the lowest overall probability of injury of any vehicle ever tested by the U.S. government’s New Car Assessment program. Sure, but there’s still some vehicles with panel gaps...

In the 4th quarter of 2020, Tesla vehicles registered one accident for every 3.45 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged. For those driving without Autopilot but with active safety features engaged, vehicles registered one accident for every 2.05 million miles driven. For vehicles driven without Autopilot and without active safety features engaged, vehicles registered one accident for every 1.27 million miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 484,000 miles. Yeah, but what about the panel gaps!

I’m not trying to convince you to buy Tesla vehicles or stock. I just find it frustrating that all these existing manufacturers seem to get a pass on quality and safety, despite the documented history of issues, deaths, and cover ups. Yet, you are willing to extrapolate that Tesla’s are poorly made or unsafe because some early production vehicles have minor panel gap issues that are easily fixed and not safety related. Ignoring that Teslas have the highest safety and customer satisfaction ratings of any brand and  there has not been a single recall related fatality. You free to assume what you want based on panel gaps, but the weight of the evidence/data suggests its the competition that routinely has safety, design and quality issues, not Tesla.  Every meaningful and objective measure strongly indicates Tesla has exceptional build quality and safety as laid out above.

Don’t take my word for it. Go watch the tear down video’s done by Sandy Munro. Sandy will point out the panel gaps and express his disappointment that they exist, but then go on to rave about the overall build quality and how he could never have gotten Ford/GM to do the things Tesla is doing in their manufacturing process when he worked in Detroit. He’s constantly raving about Tesla’s pace of innovation and how quick they are to make improvements to their vehicles from one model year to the next.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCj--iMtToRO_cGG_fpmP5XQ

As for valuation, go look at other recent Tesla threads in this Investor forum, if you like. There are detailed discussions and I and other Tesla investors made our case. I’m not going to rehash it in detail again. I’ll only say, the company that is growing by 40-50% per year should be worth more than the companies with declining sales and soon to be stranded assets and outdated technology.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: StashingAway on February 17, 2021, 12:17:52 PM
Quote from: ColoradoTribe link=topic=89600.msg2794318#msg2794318

wall of text


It may not sound like it from my posts, but I am a big supporter of Tesla. I NEVER said they weren't safe. I do, in fact, believe they are the safest cars on the road. You would have saved a ton of effort asking me rather than trying to convince me. Had you been reading carefully, you would have noticed my nod to this when I said they'd be cheaper to insure. I CLEARLY stated that the panel gaps were not the main issue. I was just throwing it as a quick reference to my overall perception of things.

We likely see eye to eye on many things. I am offering alternative viewpoints and feel as though they are not being received in good faith. You appear to have no intention of learning new things if they don't already fit your current agenda. It's a common human defense mechanism to reject those outside of your tribe. It's nearly impossible to override.

Now, before you get all up on me again, I'm not saying that I am guaranteed to have new info to offer. I'm saying that if I did, you are not in a mindset to receive it (or at least haven't shown to be). How can you expect me to be receptive of your viewpoint if you have no intention of being receptive to mine? I am in defense mode (as are you). How do we break the spell?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ColoradoTribe on February 17, 2021, 01:50:59 PM
Quote from: ColoradoTribe link=topic=89600.msg2794318#msg2794318

wall of text


It may not sound like it from my posts, but I am a big supporter of Tesla. I NEVER said they weren't safe. I do, in fact, believe they are the safest cars on the road. You would have saved a ton of effort asking me rather than trying to convince me. Had you been reading carefully, you would have noticed my nod to this when I said they'd be cheaper to insure. I CLEARLY stated that the panel gaps were not the main issue. I was just throwing it as a quick reference to my overall perception of things.

We likely see eye to eye on many things. I am offering alternative viewpoints and feel as though they are not being received in good faith. You appear to have no intention of learning new things if they don't already fit your current agenda. It's a common human defense mechanism to reject those outside of your tribe. It's nearly impossible to override.

Now, before you get all up on me again, I'm not saying that I am guaranteed to have new info to offer. I'm saying that if I did, you are not in a mindset to receive it (or at least haven't shown to be). How can you expect me to be receptive of your viewpoint if you have no intention of being receptive to mine? I am in defense mode (as are you). How do we break the spell?

You implied the panel gaps were indicative of larger quality issues. While I agree you never questioned Tesla’s safety, I’d argue safety and build quality are obviously related. If a car is not built well then it will not be safe as evidenced by the list of fatal recalls due to poor build quality or design. My whole point is that outside of the panel gaps themselves all evidence as to the quality and safety of Tesla’s vehicles runs counter to your assertion or perception that they are “disposable” and of poor quality.

I do apologize for the heavy handedness of my posts. However, I’ve been fighting false claims against Tesla going on 8 years now since I bought my first shares in 2013. The arguments change, the goal posts move, and new critics emerge, but the near constant stream of misinformation continues unabated. I don’t sense any malice on your part, though you seem to take this personal, and I feel like I’ve largely stuck with facts and substantive opinions in my posts.

Anyway we can move along. Its not my intention to argue or debate every post that has something negative to say about Tesla. If all you said was the cars have some finish issues and you think the stock is overvalued I likely would not have responded. It was the extrapolation from panel gaps to your perception or assumption of larger or general quality issues that flew in the face of the available facts. I can ramble and go off on side tracks and while I’m trying to respond to directly to you, I am also trying to inform anyone else reading along on Tesla generally.

Best- Colorado Tribe
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: effigy98 on February 17, 2021, 10:48:40 PM
TESLA is now a great investment. Having 1.5B of bitcoin on the balance sheet gives them a huge advantage over other companies. They also have a sugar momma named Cathy. Trying to value them based on the cars is not useful at this point. They are an AI (software), energy tax credit, crypto, story driven company.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: talltexan on February 18, 2021, 07:18:42 AM
Is Tesla sufficiently good for the environment that it overcomes the negative environmental impact of the Bitcoin activity it is motivating?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: bacchi on February 18, 2021, 10:03:42 AM
TESLA is now a great investment. Having 1.5B of bitcoin on the balance sheet gives them a huge advantage over other companies. They also have a sugar momma named Cathy. Trying to value them based on the cars is not useful at this point. They are an AI (software), energy tax credit, crypto, story driven company.

That's good news that they're working on other revenue models. Not only does their car manufacturing make no money without the tax credits, they had to cut their prices today due to EV competition.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Proud Foot on February 18, 2021, 12:11:13 PM
TESLA is now a great investment. Having 1.5B of bitcoin on the balance sheet gives them a huge advantage over other companies. They also have a sugar momma named Cathy. Trying to value them based on the cars is not useful at this point. They are an AI (software), energy tax credit, crypto, story driven company.

This part right here! Around a month ago I saw an article where they announced launching their own solar power inverter. They definitely seem to be an Energy Technology and Software who just happens to package it in a self produced car.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: ChpBstrd on February 18, 2021, 01:59:09 PM
Is Tesla sufficiently good for the environment that it overcomes the negative environmental impact of the Bitcoin activity it is motivating?

GOOD question. I had always heard saving the environment was Musk's motivation, but this would be a step in the opposite direction, wouldn't it.

If it is revealed in a few months that Tesla reduced its Bitcoin holdings, we'll know the truth - that Musk was using his celebrity status to raise free money for Tesla and he's not a true believer in crypto.

If he sticks with it long-term, he has a different motive.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: talltexan on February 19, 2021, 07:44:41 AM
This is what bothers me about Tesla and Crypto:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3663925-tesla-and-bitcoin (https://seekingalpha.com/news/3663925-tesla-and-bitcoin)
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: lemonlyman on February 19, 2021, 09:07:30 AM
Because Tesla can get more detailed driving data on its drivers than All State can from any car. Tesla can determine how much a particular person drives on Tuesday and how fast. What routes they use. If a person keeps their tires inflated. Beamed from the car right to their database at any time. How does All State get that kind of data?

I don’t know if that’ll make pricing better or not. It will be the first pricing related to behavior in relatively real time though. The goal might be to influence good driving behavior directly through consumer price rather than reducing repair costs.

Yeah this is wrong. There are already insurance companies doing this. Or near enough to not make a difference. It's not a very popular insurance method, yet.

https://www.wired.com/2016/11/car-insurance-pricing-broken-phone-fix/

How does All State get that kind of data?

It's called Drivewise.
https://www.allstate.com/drive-wise.aspx\

In State Farm it's called Drive Safe. Progressive calls it Snapshot. SmartRide from Nationwide. Etc.

Point taken! Thanks. I do think there is value in that program being inherent in Tesla's product and not an opt in product. The other insurance companies also can't recover 360 video of incidents (that I know of without an additional device) nor real-time data about the physical aspects of the vehicle in addition to the driver. In general, the driver data is an incremental step. The goal of the product is Tesla being able to insure the car when it's driving autonomously.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on February 19, 2021, 08:35:21 PM
This is what bothers me about Tesla and Crypto:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3663925-tesla-and-bitcoin (https://seekingalpha.com/news/3663925-tesla-and-bitcoin)

Too many garbage articles at Seeking Alpha, especially when the topic is Tesla.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: StashingAway on February 20, 2021, 06:32:31 AM
TESLA is now a great investment. Having 1.5B of bitcoin on the balance sheet gives them a huge advantage over other companies. They also have a sugar momma named Cathy. Trying to value them based on the cars is not useful at this point. They are an AI (software), energy tax credit, crypto, story driven company.

This part right here! Around a month ago I saw an article where they announced launching their own solar power inverter. They definitely seem to be an Energy Technology and Software who just happens to package it in a self produced car.

Maybe this is where I have it wrong (or, better said, if I have it wrong this is my blind spot).

Side question: is there anything special about their inverter, or is it mostly offered to complete the "Tesla" solar package?
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on February 20, 2021, 09:14:36 AM
TESLA is now a great investment. Having 1.5B of bitcoin on the balance sheet gives them a huge advantage over other companies. They also have a sugar momma named Cathy. Trying to value them based on the cars is not useful at this point. They are an AI (software), energy tax credit, crypto, story driven company.

This part right here! Around a month ago I saw an article where they announced launching their own solar power inverter. They definitely seem to be an Energy Technology and Software who just happens to package it in a self produced car.

Maybe this is where I have it wrong (or, better said, if I have it wrong this is my blind spot).

Side question: is there anything special about their inverter, or is it mostly offered to complete the "Tesla" solar package?

They can produce an inverter designed to optimize the 4-way connection between solar, house demand, PowerWall and the grid.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: StashingAway on February 20, 2021, 11:32:01 AM
They can produce an inverter designed to optimize the 4-way connection between solar, house demand, PowerWall and the grid.

I'm reading about it a bit more. It's nothing special other than working with the Tesla app. But makes sense from a bundling standpoint.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on February 20, 2021, 12:05:56 PM
They can produce an inverter designed to optimize the 4-way connection between solar, house demand, PowerWall and the grid.

I'm reading about it a bit more. It's nothing special other than working with the Tesla app. But makes sense from a bundling standpoint.

Some people would also say the octovalve is nothing special. Move heat around. Automotive design engineers are impressed and think that way due to the level of integration, allowing for a lighter, more compact, more efficient unit.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: StashingAway on February 20, 2021, 01:35:39 PM
They can produce an inverter designed to optimize the 4-way connection between solar, house demand, PowerWall and the grid.

I'm reading about it a bit more. It's nothing special other than working with the Tesla app. But makes sense from a bundling standpoint.

Some people would also say the octovalve is nothing special. Move heat around. Automotive design engineers are impressed and think that way due to the level of integration, allowing for a lighter, more compact, more efficient unit.

It's an inverter. From the specs it appears to be a standard string inverter with mediocre efficiency at that (meaning it's a far cry from what some of the microinverters can do these days).

I would be glad to be proven wrong, but currently this just sounds like rose colored Tesla glasses.

I would buy it if I were getting a whole Tesla solar setup (Panels, charger, powerwall, etc.) But I would do the same with any solar install; grouping manufacturers' makes the install more reliable and predictable.

And the Octovalve is an industry 3rd, at best. Volkswagen ID.3 and Mercedes EQC do the same thing. And the Nissan Leaf was the first vehicle to use a heat pump in their vehicle (although theirs was a simple air-to-air one). But Nissan using one in a 25K vehicle in 2013 when Tesla was using standard resistance heat in their 80K Model S shows that they aren't the peak innovators in every category. Lots of EVs use various heat pump variants. But, you know, Tesla gets all the credit.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on February 21, 2021, 07:58:23 AM
If you think that octovalve is "just a heatpump" - I suggest deeper analysis. Sandy Munro's Youtube videos are an option for getting you started.

I don't know that the Tesla inverter is anything special yet. Their habit is to get out viable product and rapidly iterate improvements.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: StashingAway on February 21, 2021, 09:46:12 AM
If you think that octovalve is "just a heatpump"

Point to where I said that, please.  EDIT: I just realized my "industry third" quote could be misinterpreted. I meant that they were the third to release an advanced heat pump system. Theirs is arguably the best, but the other two are quite impressive.

Also, did you bother looking up the Volkswagen and Mercedes technologies? They are also more than "just a heatpump" as well. Leaf's is "just a heapump", but that can be forgiven because they released it two years sooner and on a car that costs 40K less than the first Tesla to use one.

The new permanent magnet motor tech to increase efficiency on the S and X? Yeah, Prius did that first.

I'm actually quite an enthusiast. I love energy and efficiency and all of that. I'm not saying what Tesla is don't isn't impressive. But if you ONLY watch Tesla videos on youtube, you're going to think they're the only ones innovating whatsoever. Perhaps the hype machine that they've built is what their valuation really is. Gonna be pretty hard to make any space in the marketplace if Tesla gets credit for everyone else's innovations (as well as theirs).

I don't know that the Tesla inverter is anything special yet.

Which is fine. My point is exactly this. It's just an inverter. Probably even just a re-badged one like they use in their Powerwall. Which is totally fine; companies do that all the time! Same reason so many car companies use the same airbag manufacturer. No reason to re-invent everything everytime.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: theoverlook on February 22, 2021, 09:14:33 AM
The new permanent magnet motor tech to increase efficiency on the S and X? Yeah, Prius did that first.

Hey now, the "old" induction motor was actually the higher performance unit, but I guess they decided improving efficiency was more important than the advantages an induction motor offers. (Fair enough; efficiency is important!)
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: Proud Foot on February 22, 2021, 02:29:45 PM
They can produce an inverter designed to optimize the 4-way connection between solar, house demand, PowerWall and the grid.

I'm reading about it a bit more. It's nothing special other than working with the Tesla app. But makes sense from a bundling standpoint.

I'm not technical at all when it comes to electronic engineering. I read it and was more surprised that they are just now producing it. I would have thought it would have been one of the first things produced after they introduced their solar products.
Title: Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
Post by: TomTX on February 22, 2021, 05:04:15 PM