Author Topic: Is Tesla a good investment?  (Read 144985 times)

Niceday

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #800 on: November 02, 2021, 01:17:10 PM »
I appreciate your comments, StashingAway.  I understand where you're coming from.

Also to clarify, it's not just the percentages of upside and downside we need to consider, it's also the probability of success and failure.  From Charlie Munger:

"Regarding risk taking/decision making - take the probability of loss times the amount of possible loss from the probability of gain times the amount of possible gain"

The probability and the amount values in the equation are super hard to determine. We all need to find our edge and invest accordingly.  I learned a lot from Charllie Munger.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #801 on: November 02, 2021, 03:08:09 PM »
3) It discourages the other OEMs from building out their own charging network by beating them to the punch. The other OEMs would have to offer a superior network or an inferior network for a lesser or no fee to compete. Down the road Tesla could simultaneously raise the subscription fee, while offering a year of free charging to new customers who trade in their existing non-Tesla EV.

Other charging networks offer similar charging without the subscription fee don't they? Tesla isn't the only Level 3 option. To look at it another way, why would a customer pay $20/mo more just to have access to Superchargers if the cost to charge on Tesla's network isn't cheaper? If this ends up being a big money maker for Tesla, it seems like it might encourage others to join in, rather than discourage them.

5) It draws further attention to the other OEMs lack of dedicated, level 3 charging infrastructure.

Does this really matter to EV buyers? Do they care who owns the chargers, or do they just want to be able to charge? Other charging networks have their own issues, but they do exist, they offer similar charging rates, and they're growing just like the Supercharger network.

I am not aware of another charging network with anywhere near the number of Level 3 chargers. Certainly not with the geographical coverage and density as Teslaís charging network.

Electrify America isn't doing too badly. Their network is open to all EVs, and it doesn't require a subscription, you only pay for the electricity used:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brookecrothers/2020/12/06/state-of-electric-car-fast-charging-late-2020-tesla-supercharger-network-vs-electrify-america-vs-evgo/?sh=3ed2c25012e6


If Tesla makes good money on the charging subscription I do think it still discourages other OEMs from entering the market. The legacy OEMs wouldnít be able to compete with Teslaís network until they built out their own network to a competitive level. Tesla has around a 10 year head start, it would take at least a couple years and billions of dollars to get their network to something approaching where Tesla is today. Theyíd have to spend that money at the same time theyíre spending billions to transition to EV manufacturing and while they are losing sales of profitable ICE models. I donít see how they could even afford to undertake the task, even if they wanted to try and compete. Maybe if there are really generous charging infrastructure subsidies?

VW technically owns the EA charging network, and they'd be open to other OEM investors, so a few OEMs could pool money pretty easily:
https://electrek.co/2021/07/07/electrify-america-rumored-billion-partner/

Tesla is the only one that's been proprietary to this point. All other charging is open to anybody. No reason to think that it would be proprietary moving forward. It's not going to be each OEM paying for a bunch of different charging networks, it's going to be Tesla's network against a network that's funded by a bunch of other OEMs, energy companies, "Big Oil" type companies, etc.


Yes, they will care who owns the chargers, because Tesla drivers wonít be paying the subscription fee and will get first crack at open charging stalls in high traffic areas. Tesla is not going to piss off their loyal customers by creating charger scarcity for them. Getting better access and avoiding the subscription fee alone would convince a lot of EV enthusiast to buy a Tesla next time around.

Sure, Tesla drivers might prefer Superchargers for convenience, the possibility of free charging, etc. What I'm suggesting is that non-Tesla EV owners may not be willing to pay a subscription, plus charging costs just to use Superchargers when other options exist that are likely to be cheaper.

My last post on this topic as I donít think weíll get to a consensus here.

For Teslaís pilot program in Norway non-Tesla users can either pay an increased rate for the juice they use OR pay a monthly subscription fee to pay the same rate for the juice as Tesla owners.

The title of the Electrify America article seems to be at odds with the content. Per the article you linked, Tesla had 20,000 fast chargers (10,000 in America) as of December 2020 and EA had 2,200. Thatís a huge difference if you're planning a road trip.

I could be wrong, but I donít really seeing the OEMs going in together to create a competing network. Thatís a level of coordination and cost sharing that would be difficult to pull off. Itís why each cellular carrier has their own network of overlapping cell towers instead of going in together. Direct competitors rarely cooperate on this level of undertaking.

EA or legacy OEMs might get there eventually, but itíll take years. Itís not like Tesla is standing still. They are rapidly adding territory and stations. Tesla has added over 5,000 Level 3 stalls to their charging network so far in 2021, to bring the total to over 25,000. In the article you cited, EVGo and GM announced plans to build 2700 chargers over the next 5 years. Tesla will install twice that capacity in 2021.

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #802 on: November 02, 2021, 07:55:07 PM »
Tesla launches new solar roof tiles with more power, higher efficiency

https://outline.com/Tg4HKG

New version is 22% more efficient (i.e., 22% more power from same size tile).

Constantly accelerating the pace of innovation. Hard for the competition to catch up to a moving target.

While this is nice and I'm glad they are improving it - their real problem with solar roof has been volume and execution, not solar efficiency.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #803 on: November 02, 2021, 09:09:37 PM »
Tesla launches new solar roof tiles with more power, higher efficiency

https://outline.com/Tg4HKG

New version is 22% more efficient (i.e., 22% more power from same size tile).

Constantly accelerating the pace of innovation. Hard for the competition to catch up to a moving target.

While this is nice and I'm glad they are improving it - their real problem with solar roof has been volume and execution, not solar efficiency.

No disagreement from me on that count. I still think solar roof is a winner, but it's had a hard time getting out the gates.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #804 on: November 03, 2021, 06:27:23 AM »

My last post on this topic as I donít think weíll get to a consensus here.

For Teslaís pilot program in Norway non-Tesla users can either pay an increased rate for the juice they use OR pay a monthly subscription fee to pay the same rate for the juice as Tesla owners.

The title of the Electrify America article seems to be at odds with the content. Per the article you linked, Tesla had 20,000 fast chargers (10,000 in America) as of December 2020 and EA had 2,200. Thatís a huge difference if you're planning a road trip.

I could be wrong, but I donít really seeing the OEMs going in together to create a competing network. Thatís a level of coordination and cost sharing that would be difficult to pull off. Itís why each cellular carrier has their own network of overlapping cell towers instead of going in together. Direct competitors rarely cooperate on this level of undertaking.

EA or legacy OEMs might get there eventually, but itíll take years. Itís not like Tesla is standing still. They are rapidly adding territory and stations. Tesla has added over 5,000 Level 3 stalls to their charging network so far in 2021, to bring the total to over 25,000. In the article you cited, EVGo and GM announced plans to build 2700 chargers over the next 5 years. Tesla will install twice that capacity in 2021.

I think it makes a lot of sense for Tesla to open their network up to others. It cannot hurt them, and any revenue it generates is extremely high margin. I'm just not convinced that it's going to be some game changing move that secures Tesla's dominance, even as more and more competent EVs hit the market.

Tesla currently has about 57% of the fast chargers in the US per the most recent data that I can find:

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/11/us-charging-infrastructure-is-outpacing-forecasts-study-finds/

The remainder are on other charging networks (EA, EV Go, Chargepoint, etc) that can be used by anyone. But that means that a random EV owner has thousands of alternative options, often in similar locations to Tesla's network. It's not as if each OEM has to spend billions on it's own proprietary charging network the way that Tesla has. Because the other networks aren't proprietary, you can add them all up. Consumers will have a choice in most cases between Superchargers or other networks. If it's more expensive to use the superchargers than another option, then most consumers will just get the cheapest juice available to them. It's not like there are different qualities of electricity and Tesla's electrons are better for an EV than EA's. It's just going to come down to price and convenience. Tesla's larger network currently has the convenience advantage in most places, but as more competing chargers are brought online, that convenience advantage erodes. I've attached maps of Tesla's North American fast chargers and Non-Tesla fast chargers. There's more overlap than differences.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2021, 06:42:00 AM by Paper Chaser »

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #805 on: November 03, 2021, 08:16:10 AM »

My last post on this topic as I donít think weíll get to a consensus here.

For Teslaís pilot program in Norway non-Tesla users can either pay an increased rate for the juice they use OR pay a monthly subscription fee to pay the same rate for the juice as Tesla owners.

The title of the Electrify America article seems to be at odds with the content. Per the article you linked, Tesla had 20,000 fast chargers (10,000 in America) as of December 2020 and EA had 2,200. Thatís a huge difference if you're planning a road trip.

I could be wrong, but I donít really seeing the OEMs going in together to create a competing network. Thatís a level of coordination and cost sharing that would be difficult to pull off. Itís why each cellular carrier has their own network of overlapping cell towers instead of going in together. Direct competitors rarely cooperate on this level of undertaking.

EA or legacy OEMs might get there eventually, but itíll take years. Itís not like Tesla is standing still. They are rapidly adding territory and stations. Tesla has added over 5,000 Level 3 stalls to their charging network so far in 2021, to bring the total to over 25,000. In the article you cited, EVGo and GM announced plans to build 2700 chargers over the next 5 years. Tesla will install twice that capacity in 2021.

I think it makes a lot of sense for Tesla to open their network up to others. It cannot hurt them, and any revenue it generates is extremely high margin. I'm just not convinced that it's going to be some game changing move that secures Tesla's dominance, even as more and more competent EVs hit the market.

Tesla currently has about 57% of the fast chargers in the US per the most recent data that I can find:

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/11/us-charging-infrastructure-is-outpacing-forecasts-study-finds/

The remainder are on other charging networks (EA, EV Go, Chargepoint, etc) that can be used by anyone. But that means that a random EV owner has thousands of alternative options, often in similar locations to Tesla's network. It's not as if each OEM has to spend billions on it's own proprietary charging network the way that Tesla has. Because the other networks aren't proprietary, you can add them all up. Consumers will have a choice in most cases between Superchargers or other networks. If it's more expensive to use the superchargers than another option, then most consumers will just get the cheapest juice available to them. It's not like there are different qualities of electricity and Tesla's electrons are better for an EV than EA's. It's just going to come down to price and convenience. Tesla's larger network currently has the convenience advantage in most places, but as more competing chargers are brought online, that convenience advantage erodes. I've attached maps of Tesla's North American fast chargers and Non-Tesla fast chargers. There's more overlap than differences.

The definition of ďfast chargerĒ used in this article is deceiving. Only 10% of what they are calling non-Tesla ďfast chargersĒ are actually capable of charging at the rate of a Tesla Level 3 supercharger. Per the pie chart in the article, approximately 10% of non-Tesla chargers can charge at 300 kW or better. All Tesla superchargers charge at 300 kW or better. This is obviously a huge difference in charging time and makes Teslaís network far superior in both number of stalls and charging time.


ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #806 on: November 03, 2021, 08:38:06 AM »

My last post on this topic as I donít think weíll get to a consensus here.

For Teslaís pilot program in Norway non-Tesla users can either pay an increased rate for the juice they use OR pay a monthly subscription fee to pay the same rate for the juice as Tesla owners.

The title of the Electrify America article seems to be at odds with the content. Per the article you linked, Tesla had 20,000 fast chargers (10,000 in America) as of December 2020 and EA had 2,200. Thatís a huge difference if you're planning a road trip.

I could be wrong, but I donít really seeing the OEMs going in together to create a competing network. Thatís a level of coordination and cost sharing that would be difficult to pull off. Itís why each cellular carrier has their own network of overlapping cell towers instead of going in together. Direct competitors rarely cooperate on this level of undertaking.

EA or legacy OEMs might get there eventually, but itíll take years. Itís not like Tesla is standing still. They are rapidly adding territory and stations. Tesla has added over 5,000 Level 3 stalls to their charging network so far in 2021, to bring the total to over 25,000. In the article you cited, EVGo and GM announced plans to build 2700 chargers over the next 5 years. Tesla will install twice that capacity in 2021.

I think it makes a lot of sense for Tesla to open their network up to others. It cannot hurt them, and any revenue it generates is extremely high margin. I'm just not convinced that it's going to be some game changing move that secures Tesla's dominance, even as more and more competent EVs hit the market.

Tesla currently has about 57% of the fast chargers in the US per the most recent data that I can find:

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/11/us-charging-infrastructure-is-outpacing-forecasts-study-finds/

The remainder are on other charging networks (EA, EV Go, Chargepoint, etc) that can be used by anyone. But that means that a random EV owner has thousands of alternative options, often in similar locations to Tesla's network. It's not as if each OEM has to spend billions on it's own proprietary charging network the way that Tesla has. Because the other networks aren't proprietary, you can add them all up. Consumers will have a choice in most cases between Superchargers or other networks. If it's more expensive to use the superchargers than another option, then most consumers will just get the cheapest juice available to them. It's not like there are different qualities of electricity and Tesla's electrons are better for an EV than EA's. It's just going to come down to price and convenience. Tesla's larger network currently has the convenience advantage in most places, but as more competing chargers are brought online, that convenience advantage erodes. I've attached maps of Tesla's North American fast chargers and Non-Tesla fast chargers. There's more overlap than differences.

This article states there are roughly 69,000 public (non-Tesla) charging connections in the US. Of those, only 16% or 11,040, are Level 3, which they define as being able to charge an EV to 75% in 30 minutes. By comparison, Tesla has over 25,000 Level 3 connections capable of providing 80% charge in 20 minutes. Sorry, but even combining all the other public networks, with no coordination on geographic coverage, slower charging rates, fewer locations, separate apps, and mismatched charging ports, it comes no where close to competing with Teslaís supercharging network.

https://www.myev.com/research/comparisons/comparing-public-electric-vehicle-charging-networks

soulpatchmike

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #807 on: November 03, 2021, 08:58:34 AM »

My last post on this topic as I donít think weíll get to a consensus here.

For Teslaís pilot program in Norway non-Tesla users can either pay an increased rate for the juice they use OR pay a monthly subscription fee to pay the same rate for the juice as Tesla owners.

The title of the Electrify America article seems to be at odds with the content. Per the article you linked, Tesla had 20,000 fast chargers (10,000 in America) as of December 2020 and EA had 2,200. Thatís a huge difference if you're planning a road trip.

I could be wrong, but I donít really seeing the OEMs going in together to create a competing network. Thatís a level of coordination and cost sharing that would be difficult to pull off. Itís why each cellular carrier has their own network of overlapping cell towers instead of going in together. Direct competitors rarely cooperate on this level of undertaking.

EA or legacy OEMs might get there eventually, but itíll take years. Itís not like Tesla is standing still. They are rapidly adding territory and stations. Tesla has added over 5,000 Level 3 stalls to their charging network so far in 2021, to bring the total to over 25,000. In the article you cited, EVGo and GM announced plans to build 2700 chargers over the next 5 years. Tesla will install twice that capacity in 2021.

I think it makes a lot of sense for Tesla to open their network up to others. It cannot hurt them, and any revenue it generates is extremely high margin. I'm just not convinced that it's going to be some game changing move that secures Tesla's dominance, even as more and more competent EVs hit the market.

Tesla currently has about 57% of the fast chargers in the US per the most recent data that I can find:

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/11/us-charging-infrastructure-is-outpacing-forecasts-study-finds/

The remainder are on other charging networks (EA, EV Go, Chargepoint, etc) that can be used by anyone. But that means that a random EV owner has thousands of alternative options, often in similar locations to Tesla's network. It's not as if each OEM has to spend billions on it's own proprietary charging network the way that Tesla has. Because the other networks aren't proprietary, you can add them all up. Consumers will have a choice in most cases between Superchargers or other networks. If it's more expensive to use the superchargers than another option, then most consumers will just get the cheapest juice available to them. It's not like there are different qualities of electricity and Tesla's electrons are better for an EV than EA's. It's just going to come down to price and convenience. Tesla's larger network currently has the convenience advantage in most places, but as more competing chargers are brought online, that convenience advantage erodes. I've attached maps of Tesla's North American fast chargers and Non-Tesla fast chargers. There's more overlap than differences.

This article states there are roughly 69,000 public (non-Tesla) charging connections in the US. Of those, only 16% or 11,040, are Level 3, which they define as being able to charge an EV to 75% in 30 minutes. By comparison, Tesla has over 25,000 Level 3 connections capable of providing 80% charge in 20 minutes. Sorry, but even combining all the other public networks, with no coordination on geographic coverage, slower charging rates, fewer locations, separate apps, and mismatched charging ports, it comes no where close to competing with Teslaís supercharging network.

https://www.myev.com/research/comparisons/comparing-public-electric-vehicle-charging-networks
I agree that Tesla network is superior, but with that said aren't we basically arguing that BP gas stations pump gas faster than at Shell stations?  I don't see charging revenue as a needle mover on the Tesla balance sheet.  I think the perception of it being a superior charging network is more valuable than the revenue generated from it.  According to US Dept of Energy 80% of EV users charge at home anyways...
« Last Edit: November 03, 2021, 09:01:15 AM by soulpatchmike »

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #808 on: November 03, 2021, 09:20:00 AM »

My last post on this topic as I donít think weíll get to a consensus here.

For Teslaís pilot program in Norway non-Tesla users can either pay an increased rate for the juice they use OR pay a monthly subscription fee to pay the same rate for the juice as Tesla owners.

The title of the Electrify America article seems to be at odds with the content. Per the article you linked, Tesla had 20,000 fast chargers (10,000 in America) as of December 2020 and EA had 2,200. Thatís a huge difference if you're planning a road trip.

I could be wrong, but I donít really seeing the OEMs going in together to create a competing network. Thatís a level of coordination and cost sharing that would be difficult to pull off. Itís why each cellular carrier has their own network of overlapping cell towers instead of going in together. Direct competitors rarely cooperate on this level of undertaking.

EA or legacy OEMs might get there eventually, but itíll take years. Itís not like Tesla is standing still. They are rapidly adding territory and stations. Tesla has added over 5,000 Level 3 stalls to their charging network so far in 2021, to bring the total to over 25,000. In the article you cited, EVGo and GM announced plans to build 2700 chargers over the next 5 years. Tesla will install twice that capacity in 2021.

I think it makes a lot of sense for Tesla to open their network up to others. It cannot hurt them, and any revenue it generates is extremely high margin. I'm just not convinced that it's going to be some game changing move that secures Tesla's dominance, even as more and more competent EVs hit the market.

Tesla currently has about 57% of the fast chargers in the US per the most recent data that I can find:

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/11/us-charging-infrastructure-is-outpacing-forecasts-study-finds/

The remainder are on other charging networks (EA, EV Go, Chargepoint, etc) that can be used by anyone. But that means that a random EV owner has thousands of alternative options, often in similar locations to Tesla's network. It's not as if each OEM has to spend billions on it's own proprietary charging network the way that Tesla has. Because the other networks aren't proprietary, you can add them all up. Consumers will have a choice in most cases between Superchargers or other networks. If it's more expensive to use the superchargers than another option, then most consumers will just get the cheapest juice available to them. It's not like there are different qualities of electricity and Tesla's electrons are better for an EV than EA's. It's just going to come down to price and convenience. Tesla's larger network currently has the convenience advantage in most places, but as more competing chargers are brought online, that convenience advantage erodes. I've attached maps of Tesla's North American fast chargers and Non-Tesla fast chargers. There's more overlap than differences.

This article states there are roughly 69,000 public (non-Tesla) charging connections in the US. Of those, only 16% or 11,040, are Level 3, which they define as being able to charge an EV to 75% in 30 minutes. By comparison, Tesla has over 25,000 Level 3 connections capable of providing 80% charge in 20 minutes. Sorry, but even combining all the other public networks, with no coordination on geographic coverage, slower charging rates, fewer locations, separate apps, and mismatched charging ports, it comes no where close to competing with Teslaís supercharging network.

https://www.myev.com/research/comparisons/comparing-public-electric-vehicle-charging-networks
I agree that Tesla network is superior, but with that said aren't we basically arguing that BP gas stations pump gas faster than at Shell stations?  I don't see charging revenue as a needle mover on the Tesla balance sheet.  I think the perception of it being a superior charging network is more valuable than the revenue generated from it.  According to US Dept of Energy 80% of EV users charge at home anyways...

If BP stations offered way more locations, the locations were evenly distributed so you can go anywhere in the country, the BP pumps fit your car, and the BP pumped faster saving you 10-30 minutes per stop, then thatíd be a good analogy.

Supercharging revenue will be relatively small compared to auto revenue, but 100s of millions per year isnít insignificant either.

The real advantage here is why would people buy a EV that doesnít have free access to the worldís best charging network? Allowing other EVs to access the network for a fee will only drive Tesla sales.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #809 on: November 03, 2021, 10:33:08 AM »

My last post on this topic as I donít think weíll get to a consensus here.

For Teslaís pilot program in Norway non-Tesla users can either pay an increased rate for the juice they use OR pay a monthly subscription fee to pay the same rate for the juice as Tesla owners.

The title of the Electrify America article seems to be at odds with the content. Per the article you linked, Tesla had 20,000 fast chargers (10,000 in America) as of December 2020 and EA had 2,200. Thatís a huge difference if you're planning a road trip.

I could be wrong, but I donít really seeing the OEMs going in together to create a competing network. Thatís a level of coordination and cost sharing that would be difficult to pull off. Itís why each cellular carrier has their own network of overlapping cell towers instead of going in together. Direct competitors rarely cooperate on this level of undertaking.

EA or legacy OEMs might get there eventually, but itíll take years. Itís not like Tesla is standing still. They are rapidly adding territory and stations. Tesla has added over 5,000 Level 3 stalls to their charging network so far in 2021, to bring the total to over 25,000. In the article you cited, EVGo and GM announced plans to build 2700 chargers over the next 5 years. Tesla will install twice that capacity in 2021.

I think it makes a lot of sense for Tesla to open their network up to others. It cannot hurt them, and any revenue it generates is extremely high margin. I'm just not convinced that it's going to be some game changing move that secures Tesla's dominance, even as more and more competent EVs hit the market.

Tesla currently has about 57% of the fast chargers in the US per the most recent data that I can find:

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/11/us-charging-infrastructure-is-outpacing-forecasts-study-finds/

The remainder are on other charging networks (EA, EV Go, Chargepoint, etc) that can be used by anyone. But that means that a random EV owner has thousands of alternative options, often in similar locations to Tesla's network. It's not as if each OEM has to spend billions on it's own proprietary charging network the way that Tesla has. Because the other networks aren't proprietary, you can add them all up. Consumers will have a choice in most cases between Superchargers or other networks. If it's more expensive to use the superchargers than another option, then most consumers will just get the cheapest juice available to them. It's not like there are different qualities of electricity and Tesla's electrons are better for an EV than EA's. It's just going to come down to price and convenience. Tesla's larger network currently has the convenience advantage in most places, but as more competing chargers are brought online, that convenience advantage erodes. I've attached maps of Tesla's North American fast chargers and Non-Tesla fast chargers. There's more overlap than differences.

The definition of ďfast chargerĒ used in this article is deceiving. Only 10% of what they are calling non-Tesla ďfast chargersĒ are actually capable of charging at the rate of a Tesla Level 3 supercharger. Per the pie chart in the article, approximately 10% of non-Tesla chargers can charge at 300 kW or better. All Tesla superchargers charge at 300 kW or better. This is obviously a huge difference in charging time and makes Teslaís network far superior in both number of stalls and charging time.

If it's DC powered, then it's a DC fast charger per the US gov (where the maps above came from):

https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_infrastructure.html

Only V3 Superchargers are 250kw as far as I know, with some Superchargers capable of just 75kw:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Supercharger

"The original V1 and V2 Tesla supercharging stations charge with up to 150 kW of power distributed between two cars with a maximum of 150 kW per car, depending on the version...In September 2017, Tesla announced the availability of urban Superchargers. The urban Superchargers are more compact than the standard Supercharger stalls, and will be primarily deployed in urban areas such as mall parking lots and garages. Compared to the standard Superchargers, urban Superchargers have a maximum power delivery of 72 kW. Instead of 150 kW distributed between two vehicles at a Supercharger A/B stall pair, each Urban Supercharger stall provides dedicated 72 kW capacity...Tesla makes V3 superchargers at Giga New York. Tesla first opened V3 stations in 2019, and they can provide up to 15 miles per minute (depending on circumstances). A 1 MW charge box supplies 4 stalls at 250 kW each."

Supercharging is also not free for many Tesla owners per the wiki link above:

"Unlimited supercharging for life is free for all Model S and Model X cars that were ordered before January 15, 2017, or between August 2, 2019 and May 26, 2020, or for vehicles that were purchased using a referral code during certain periods.

Model S and Model X cars that were ordered between January 15, 2017, and November 2, 2018, received 400 kWh (about 1,000 miles or 1,600 km) of free Supercharging credits per year. Once those credits are used, supercharging will have a fee, but that fee is lower than filling up a gas-powered car.

Between May 2017 and September 18, 2018, Tesla allowed existing Tesla owners to give free unlimited supercharging for life to up to five friends if the friend purchased a new Tesla and used their referral code. Tesla also offered all existing Tesla owners who purchased a new Model S, Model X or Performance Model 3 for themselves with free unlimited supercharging for life on those cars.

From time to time, Tesla has offered 1,000 or 2,000 miles of free supercharging as an incentive to purchase a new Tesla car.

Other than the above caveats, Tesla Model S and Model X cars purchased between November 2, 2018, and August 2, 2019, and all Model 3 and Model Y cars purchased at any time do not receive any supercharging credits.




Again, I agree that it's a positive move for the company to open the Supercharger network to others. It makes lots of sense. It's basically gravy for them. But we know that the vast majority of Tesla owners (and all EV owners) charge at home. Fast charging (on Tesla's network or not) is really only used by outlying cases where people can't charge at home or for lengthy roadtrips that don't happen very often statistically speaking. That's a big reason why Tesla has been willing to give it away for free to some owners in the past. Add to those facts that EV owners likely have other non-Tesla options as well for fast charging near them, and the pie gets smaller still.

All I'm really saying is that any revenue generated from this recent change is likely to be pretty small. Profitable and sensible, but small in the grand scheme. I don't understand the resistance on that point. I'm not even saying anything negative about Tesla, just suggesting that they have some competition, and something that is definitely still a positive choice for the company may not be massively successful. I'll step away from the discussion now since it's apparent that any post that isn't "TSLA to the moon!!!?!" is out of place.

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #810 on: November 03, 2021, 12:38:04 PM »
Tesla launches new solar roof tiles with more power, higher efficiency

https://outline.com/Tg4HKG

New version is 22% more efficient (i.e., 22% more power from same size tile).

Constantly accelerating the pace of innovation. Hard for the competition to catch up to a moving target.

While this is nice and I'm glad they are improving it - their real problem with solar roof has been volume and execution, not solar efficiency.

No disagreement from me on that count. I still think solar roof is a winner, but it's had a hard time getting out the gates.

As a side note, solar on home roofs is by far the most expensive form of PV solar power... The only reason it is still scaling is because of subsidies (not a bad thing at all). With install costs, economies of scale, proper panel orientation, etc. I think we will see the majority of solar coming from dedicated utility-scale farms in the coming decades. I wouldn't be surprised if rooftop solar under performs in relation to solar farms because of this, especially in climates where orientation efficiency is a bigger deal (midwest, etc.). As things progress, I suspect that most "net zero" folks will be buying solar from the grid at a lower price than installing it on their roof. I know I'm coming across as a bit argumentative here, I just want to point it out. From the energy industry side of things, the excitement about residential PV solar is a bit misplaced in my opinion.

Of course, this all highly depends on legislation and utility net metering programs. Rooftop solar is here to stay for sure, but it is darn expensive if you're trying to maximize your efficiency and stay green.

pdf link: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/78882.pdf

Residential solar costs $2.71 per W, Utility is $1.01. 

Niceday

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #811 on: November 03, 2021, 01:13:16 PM »

Tesla currently has about 57% of the fast chargers in the US per the most recent data that I can find:

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/11/us-charging-infrastructure-is-outpacing-forecasts-study-finds/


I'm not trying to debate which charging network is more superior, but I'd like to point out that the 2 maps you attached don't tell the whole picture. Each green dot in the maps represents a charging station, and each Tesla charging station usually has 8 charging ports and sometimes a lot more.  Non-Tesla stations have 1 charging port.  You can see the port numbers by clicking on a green dot and then clicking on the '+' sign to drill down.  The NREL report https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/80684.pdf linked by the arstechnica article shows that Tesla has the lion's share of high speed chargers.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #812 on: November 03, 2021, 01:39:54 PM »
Tesla launches new solar roof tiles with more power, higher efficiency

https://outline.com/Tg4HKG

New version is 22% more efficient (i.e., 22% more power from same size tile).

Constantly accelerating the pace of innovation. Hard for the competition to catch up to a moving target.

While this is nice and I'm glad they are improving it - their real problem with solar roof has been volume and execution, not solar efficiency.

No disagreement from me on that count. I still think solar roof is a winner, but it's had a hard time getting out the gates.

As a side note, solar on home roofs is by far the most expensive form of PV solar power... The only reason it is still scaling is because of subsidies (not a bad thing at all). With install costs, economies of scale, proper panel orientation, etc. I think we will see the majority of solar coming from dedicated utility-scale farms in the coming decades. I wouldn't be surprised if rooftop solar under performs in relation to solar farms because of this, especially in climates where orientation efficiency is a bigger deal (midwest, etc.). As things progress, I suspect that most "net zero" folks will be buying solar from the grid at a lower price than installing it on their roof. I know I'm coming across as a bit argumentative here, I just want to point it out. From the energy industry side of things, the excitement about residential PV solar is a bit misplaced in my opinion.

Of course, this all highly depends on legislation and utility net metering programs. Rooftop solar is here to stay for sure, but it is darn expensive if you're trying to maximize your efficiency and stay green.

pdf link: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/78882.pdf

Residential solar costs $2.71 per W, Utility is $1.01.


It will vary by consumer as to what is preferred. What the utility supply model doesn't get on is self-sufficiency and control. Even if your supply can't power everything you want, if it can keep your fridge going and your house above 40 degrees and let you boil water during a power outage, some people will be willing to take on additional costs for that. Thinking about what happened in texas, people dying because of a power outage.

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #813 on: November 03, 2021, 02:10:11 PM »
It will vary by consumer as to what is preferred. What the utility supply model doesn't get on is self-sufficiency and control. Even if your supply can't power everything you want, if it can keep your fridge going and your house above 40 degrees and let you boil water during a power outage, some people will be willing to take on additional costs for that. Thinking about what happened in texas, people dying because of a power outage.

That is only a small portion of PV sales, though. By far the majority is grid connect without battery backup or ability to run disconnected from the grid. Most people are using it for price arbitrage, or because they are tech/environmental enthusiasts. A generator is way more cost effective in the case of a power outage (and the relative carbon emissions from backup power are small enough that it's really not a concern to all but the most stringent environmentalists). I would bet dollars to doughnuts that the vast majority of Texans worried about personal resilience in the next grid event are buying a generator and not a solar system with battery backup.

dougules

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #814 on: November 03, 2021, 02:21:57 PM »
Tesla launches new solar roof tiles with more power, higher efficiency

https://outline.com/Tg4HKG

New version is 22% more efficient (i.e., 22% more power from same size tile).

Constantly accelerating the pace of innovation. Hard for the competition to catch up to a moving target.

While this is nice and I'm glad they are improving it - their real problem with solar roof has been volume and execution, not solar efficiency.

No disagreement from me on that count. I still think solar roof is a winner, but it's had a hard time getting out the gates.

As a side note, solar on home roofs is by far the most expensive form of PV solar power... The only reason it is still scaling is because of subsidies (not a bad thing at all). With install costs, economies of scale, proper panel orientation, etc. I think we will see the majority of solar coming from dedicated utility-scale farms in the coming decades. I wouldn't be surprised if rooftop solar under performs in relation to solar farms because of this, especially in climates where orientation efficiency is a bigger deal (midwest, etc.). As things progress, I suspect that most "net zero" folks will be buying solar from the grid at a lower price than installing it on their roof. I know I'm coming across as a bit argumentative here, I just want to point it out. From the energy industry side of things, the excitement about residential PV solar is a bit misplaced in my opinion.

Of course, this all highly depends on legislation and utility net metering programs. Rooftop solar is here to stay for sure, but it is darn expensive if you're trying to maximize your efficiency and stay green.

pdf link: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/78882.pdf

Residential solar costs $2.71 per W, Utility is $1.01.

In the short to medium term this is likely true, but you're thinking only in terms of what the costs are right now.  Roofs are expensive even if you're just putting regular shingles or tiles on.  At a certain point eventually, the cost of solar shingles/tiles and battery storage will be much less relative to the cost of re-roofing a house which you have to eventually do anyway.  At that point it won't make sense not to spend a little extra and get power from your roof instead of spending a bunch of money on installing asphalt shingles or ceramic tiles that don't produce anything. 

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #815 on: November 03, 2021, 05:26:59 PM »
It will vary by consumer as to what is preferred. What the utility supply model doesn't get on is self-sufficiency and control. Even if your supply can't power everything you want, if it can keep your fridge going and your house above 40 degrees and let you boil water during a power outage, some people will be willing to take on additional costs for that. Thinking about what happened in texas, people dying because of a power outage.

That is only a small portion of PV sales, though. By far the majority is grid connect without battery backup or ability to run disconnected from the grid. Most people are using it for price arbitrage, or because they are tech/environmental enthusiasts. A generator is way more cost effective in the case of a power outage (and the relative carbon emissions from backup power are small enough that it's really not a concern to all but the most stringent environmentalists). I would bet dollars to doughnuts that the vast majority of Texans worried about personal resilience in the next grid event are buying a generator and not a solar system with battery backup.

Maybe, to date. The world is rapidly changing, the texas situation scared the shit out of me. We get -20 degree weather sometimes, and I tried to imagine us without power and how long we'd last. Not long. and we have a lot of pets. What would we do?

We have gas heat, but it doesn't work without the electric component. We just need a drop of electricity to run the boiler. I'm definitely looking into tesla roof and batteries for peace of mind on this.

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #816 on: November 03, 2021, 06:05:04 PM »
Maybe, to date. The world is rapidly changing, the texas situation scared the shit out of me. We get -20 degree weather sometimes, and I tried to imagine us without power and how long we'd last. Not long. and we have a lot of pets. What would we do?

We have gas heat, but it doesn't work without the electric component. We just need a drop of electricity to run the boiler. I'm definitely looking into tesla roof and batteries for peace of mind on this.

Yes to date. Did you read the rest of my comment? Lithium won't be cheap enough for a grid scale solution to backup power. Tesla is literally the most expensive solar panel option you can buy. I've installed solar panels in several applications (I have 3kW on my roof right now). I've also installed them in off grid situations. Tesla roof tiles are cool. But if you value your money you won't get them.

This is kind of the thing that is rough with the "Tesla or Die" club... there's no amount of moderate criticism or skepticism that is deemed reasonable. How many people who have driven up the price of the stock understand this? I don't know... I for sure am not an expert on the automotive industry.

I work in the energy industry. How the grid works and how most people imagine the grids works is often a huge chasm that is hard to converse with... it's difficult to tell what most people know and hard to cater the conversation in a way where folks can share well. I have had far more conversations with people who see a powerwall and think that it's just a matter of a few years of scaling and price and our grid is ready for renewables. And that can't be further from the truth... which makes me question most of the rest of the popular evaluation of Tesla. I'm not saying that they don't make a good product (solar, vehicle or otherwise). I'm saying, from the glimpses of the market that I've seen, it doesn't add up to me. I could be wrong, am suspicious when there are sentiments that everything that Tesla does has some underlying genius that can't be evaluated.
« Last Edit: November 04, 2021, 08:47:56 AM by StashingAway »

Paper Chaser

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #817 on: November 04, 2021, 03:44:08 AM »
Maybe, to date. The world is rapidly changing, the texas situation scared the shit out of me. We get -20 degree weather sometimes, and I tried to imagine us without power and how long we'd last. Not long. and we have a lot of pets. What would we do?

We have gas heat, but it doesn't work without the electric component. We just need a drop of electricity to run the boiler. I'm definitely looking into tesla roof and batteries for peace of mind on this.

A small gasoline generator is a few hundred bucks and would keep your heat on and supply electricity for other needs as well.

If you're willing to do something more permanent and integrated (and clearly you are if you're considering solar/battery backup) then a natural gas back up generator can supply all the electricity you'd need for as long as you need it with no worries about running out of power. Size it to run just a few essentials, or your entire house. They're also likely to  have a much longer lifespan than solar panels/batteries and won't lose capacity over time. Spend less than $10k once, and be good for 30+ years.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #818 on: November 04, 2021, 09:14:10 AM »
Maybe, to date. The world is rapidly changing, the texas situation scared the shit out of me. We get -20 degree weather sometimes, and I tried to imagine us without power and how long we'd last. Not long. and we have a lot of pets. What would we do?

We have gas heat, but it doesn't work without the electric component. We just need a drop of electricity to run the boiler. I'm definitely looking into tesla roof and batteries for peace of mind on this.

A small gasoline generator is a few hundred bucks and would keep your heat on and supply electricity for other needs as well.

If you're willing to do something more permanent and integrated (and clearly you are if you're considering solar/battery backup) then a natural gas back up generator can supply all the electricity you'd need for as long as you need it with no worries about running out of power. Size it to run just a few essentials, or your entire house. They're also likely to  have a much longer lifespan than solar panels/batteries and won't lose capacity over time. Spend less than $10k once, and be good for 30+ years.

All true, but missing is the fact that a solar/battery installation while more expensive upfront does pay itself off over time due to net metering and energy arbitrage. So, at the 10-12 year mark the solar PV system will have paid for itself. Not true for the gas generator.PV and solar will likely also increase your homeís value more than a backup generator for the same reason. Not saying one is clearly better, but reduced energy bills need to be factored.

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #819 on: November 04, 2021, 09:16:21 AM »
I'm definitely looking into tesla roof and batteries for peace of mind on this.

I want to point out another option as well. You can get a metal roof + solar for about the cost of a Tesla roof. That metal roof will last 40-70 years (according to insurance actuators). Solar panels are typically warrantied for 25 years at 80% capacity. The former option allows you to replace/upgrade your panels in 25 years rather than having to replace the whole roof if the panels stop performing well. The Tesla roof is warrantied for 25 years for solar production. I'm sure the tiles last much longer, but it just seems like a bad idea to try to combine the tiles with the roof. I'd rather have the option of replacing just the solar should it be damaged or wear out.

If we are talking about efficiency (and I agree it doesn't matter much, what matters is $/watt), the new Tesla roof tiles are estimated at about 10% efficiency- a far cry from the current crop of straight solar panels. They don't publish their data so this is just estimated off tile size and kW from installed systems. That's why they're putting these tiles on all sides of the roof rather than the more maximum producing south or west facing ones.

The biggest reason to get the Tesla roof is aesthetics, which is fine for high income and high subsidy coastal California, but you're paying a premium for that. If you're worried about grid resiliency there are cheaper/better options. If you want a big solar system there are cheaper options (including just buying solar credits from much cheaper utility scale solar). It's not like electric vehicles where if you want the best one in any metric, Tesla is most often the #1 choice.
« Last Edit: November 04, 2021, 09:20:05 AM by StashingAway »

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #820 on: November 04, 2021, 09:19:36 AM »
All true, but missing is the fact that a solar/battery installation while more expensive upfront does pay itself off over time due to net metering and energy arbitrage. So, at the 10-12 year mark the solar PV system will have paid for itself. Not true for the gas generator.PV and solar will likely also increase your homeís value more than a backup generator for the same reason. Not saying one is clearly better, but reduced energy bills need to be factored.

Solar will. A whole house lithium backup battery system will NOT pay for itself with arbitrage at this point unless you are in a specific subsidy rich AND net-metering friendly part of the country. If it did, there would be utility scale backup batteries, but alas, we only have fossil fuel plants for that for the foreseeable future (and some hydro).

Edit: (sorry to be combative again). I am partially expressing my own frustration at how this stuff plays out. It goes back to the MMM blog a bit- Tesla is a bit of a "consume ourselves out of the problem", and I am off put by their marketing. I'm designing a house and really wanted Tesla solar, even got a representative and such to price it out and it just is all smoke an mirrors. The whole program seems designed for people who just want to buy tech, but don't care how any of it works. They're paying for their sins so to speak without making any sacrifices. You want to increase resiliency and lessen your environmental impact? Maybe downsize your house or learn to live with a lower temperature, etc.

Just me venting but these threads bring it out of me, lol
« Last Edit: November 04, 2021, 09:29:24 AM by StashingAway »

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #821 on: November 04, 2021, 09:35:20 AM »
Maybe, to date. The world is rapidly changing, the texas situation scared the shit out of me. We get -20 degree weather sometimes, and I tried to imagine us without power and how long we'd last. Not long. and we have a lot of pets. What would we do?

We have gas heat, but it doesn't work without the electric component. We just need a drop of electricity to run the boiler. I'm definitely looking into tesla roof and batteries for peace of mind on this.

Yes to date. Did you read the rest of my comment? Lithium won't be cheap enough for a grid scale solution to backup power. Tesla is literally the most expensive solar panel option you can buy. I've installed solar panels in several applications (I have 3kW on my roof right now). I've also installed them in off grid situations. Tesla roof tiles are cool. But if you value your money you won't get them.

This is kind of the thing that is rough with the "Tesla or Die" club... there's no amount of moderate criticism or skepticism that is deemed reasonable. How many people who have driven up the price of the stock understand this? I don't know... I for sure am not an expert on the automotive industry.

I work in the energy industry. How the grid works and how most people imagine the grids works is often a huge chasm that is hard to converse with... it's difficult to tell what most people know and hard to cater the conversation in a way where folks can share well. I have had far more conversations with people who see a powerwall and think that it's just a matter of a few years of scaling and price and our grid is ready for renewables. And that can't be further from the truth... which makes me question most of the rest of the popular evaluation of Tesla. I'm not saying that they don't make a good product (solar, vehicle or otherwise). I'm saying, from the glimpses of the market that I've seen, it doesn't add up to me. I could be wrong, am suspicious when there are sentiments that everything that Tesla does has some underlying genius that can't be evaluated.

I'm not sure what you are referring to here. I've been thinking about solar for a long time and made a decision about 2 years ago that I would go with Tesla for this when we do get a new roof. A lot of that decision is aesthetic. I think solar panels are just an eyesore, and when I found out about the tesla roof I was blown away and knew that was the direction I would go. Then found out about the powerwalls and I was delighted with the potential of the product.

I was explaining some of the aspects of my own personal decision, and why other methods are not as attactive and thinking that others may be similarly inclined.

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/ny-girl-saves-family-carbon-monoxide-iphone-20211104-k3462fyakndyres45vfw3shvty-story.html#:~:text=A%209%2Dyear%2Dold%20girl,local%20Fox%20affiliate%20WFXT%20reported.

It seems like you have a rationale on why the tesla roof isn't going to be a huge success but I don't think you're factoring in consumer sentiments.

I'm sure there are many people who won't go to a tesla roof, but I think there are going to be a lot that do. The seemless integration with the powerwalls, the beautiful look of the roof, the cleanliness of the roof grey water, the safety and convenience of the power backup, I can hardly wait to get mine. There isn't even a question of another product to compare it too.

There may be other ways to get to solar, but I don't think that any of that is as pure and clean as your own off your roof with the tesla product. It likely won't serve 100% of our electic needs, but I am excited to see how much we can get.

And then plan my windmill :)

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #822 on: November 04, 2021, 09:46:33 AM »
All true, but missing is the fact that a solar/battery installation while more expensive upfront does pay itself off over time due to net metering and energy arbitrage. So, at the 10-12 year mark the solar PV system will have paid for itself. Not true for the gas generator.PV and solar will likely also increase your homeís value more than a backup generator for the same reason. Not saying one is clearly better, but reduced energy bills need to be factored.

Solar will. A whole house lithium backup battery system will NOT pay for itself with arbitrage at this point unless you are in a specific subsidy rich AND net-metering friendly part of the country. If it did, there would be utility scale backup batteries, but alas, we only have fossil fuel plants for that for the foreseeable future (and some hydro).

Edit: (sorry to be combative again). I am partially expressing my own frustration at how this stuff plays out. It goes back to the MMM blog a bit- Tesla is a bit of a "consume ourselves out of the problem", and I am off put by their marketing. I'm designing a house and really wanted Tesla solar, even got a representative and such to price it out and it just is all smoke an mirrors. The whole program seems designed for people who just want to buy tech, but don't care how any of it works. They're paying for their sins so to speak without making any sacrifices. You want to increase resiliency and lessen your environmental impact? Maybe downsize your house or learn to live with a lower temperature, etc.

Just me venting but these threads bring it out of me, lol

You may be too close to the issue, working in energy.

I'm not aware of any tesla marketing, just elon being an ass. I had to think calmly a few times and separate the company from the person, or I was in danger of putting tesla on my personal boycott list. He can be that provoking.

But I reasoned that there are probably plenty of CEOs that are far worse who just keep their mouths shut and I don't know about it. So, I need to focus on the company and the product.

Being not an energy-sector worker, I'm just a simple consumer, and I am sold on the products. I probably should have bought 2 years ago when I was first interested because the prices have gone up quite a bit. Glad to hear that they are improving the product, so I'll take that with the price increase.

I do hear you on the frustration front though, I'd like to get a quote on doing the garage roof, because that one needs replacing immediately but it seems like those types of quotes are not easily had and I'm not sure how to proceed.

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #823 on: November 04, 2021, 09:59:17 AM »
I'm sure there are many people who won't go to a tesla roof, but I think there are going to be a lot that do. The seemless integration with the powerwalls, the beautiful look of the roof, the cleanliness of the roof grey water, the safety and convenience of the power backup, I can hardly wait to get mine. There isn't even a question of another product to compare it too.

YOU CAN DO ALL OF THOSE THINGS WITH A NORMAL METAL ROOF AND SOLAR PANELS! I'm yelling at the sky, not at you! Imagine trying to shake some sense into a family member, not throwing knives.

How I not communicating this? There are other options that are better in EVERY METRIC except aesthetics. Every one! Roofers install the roof, electricians install the panels... why is that not an option?

Edit: The house I'm building will be 100% electric. It has rainwater collection (and grey water recovery). It will be able to have solar panels facing due south, but I won't be able to afford those right off the bat. Use passive solar strategies to gain heat from winter sun and block summer sun. I am totally on board with taking combustion appliances out of the house (although I might be using a gas-powered backup generator, which is outside and may not ever be run, which is why I say "might") Even still, that is outside of the building envelope. I'm actually on the same page on a lot of things here! The grid in my build area experiences extremely few electrical blackouts and my house will be very efficient, meaning it will hold heat/cool in for a long time before electricity is needed. This is a side tangent.
« Last Edit: November 04, 2021, 10:07:01 AM by StashingAway »

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #824 on: November 04, 2021, 10:11:46 AM »
It seems like you have a rationale on why the tesla roof isn't going to be a huge success but I don't think you're factoring in consumer sentiments.

I'm not about to predict the future of Tesla's success... that's not what I'm getting at here. I'm actually focused a bit more on the latter part. The "consumer sentiments". Or, rather, "investor sentiments". I'm also hesitant to make any hard claims here, because there were plenty of people deep in automotive who didn't see EV's coming mainstream so fast and they sure were wrong. But... if the market Tesla valuation is taking things like grid batteries and solar roofs into account here (rather than just automotive), then that valuation is based on smoke and mirrors... but who knows... some of these new tech companies are making a killing on the "fake it till you make it" strategy. It's from people like you (not said in a derogatory way), who imagine what the grid looks like and then can only imagine Tesla's solution as the answer.

And to that last point... if something believed by enough people, it becomes the truth. Maybe Tesla roofs will succeed not because it makes sense, but because they market their way to the top. Does that make it right? Does it matter?
« Last Edit: November 04, 2021, 10:15:40 AM by StashingAway »

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #825 on: November 04, 2021, 10:21:38 AM »
I'm sure there are many people who won't go to a tesla roof, but I think there are going to be a lot that do. The seemless integration with the powerwalls, the beautiful look of the roof, the cleanliness of the roof grey water, the safety and convenience of the power backup, I can hardly wait to get mine. There isn't even a question of another product to compare it too.

YOU CAN DO ALL OF THOSE THINGS WITH A NORMAL METAL ROOF AND SOLAR PANELS! I'm yelling at the sky, not at you! Imagine trying to shake some sense into a family member, not throwing knives.

How the hell am I not communicating this? There are other options that are better in EVERY METRIC except aesthetics. Every one! Roofers install the roof, electricians install the panels... why is that not an option?

You've communicated just fine. Your opinoin is that there are cheaper and more efficient alternatives. Now, whether or not that is true I have no way of knowing and I don't generally just beleive people on the internet, but for the sake of argument, let's say that that the metal roof and solar panels are both cheaper and more efficient. I'm still left with an eyesore on my roof, and have we factored into the cost of battery? or are we going with a generator, which I don't want because they seem messy, smelly and dangerous. how big are they? where would I put them? how do I turn them on? All things I don't want to know about.

Then - so for about 80-90% of the year, I have full sun on the south side of my roof, but in the hottest time of the year, the sun is on the north side of my roof. So that would be a problem under your scenario. I also have a small amount of roof that faces east and west. the roof has a very steep pitch, which I think will be excellent for solar colelction most of the years and I like having solar collection going on over all four of those areas.

On my side, I don't understand why you don't understand that I'm not interested in the macgyver alternative to the tesla roof.

So, it's like - here is something cheaper and more efficient than what you want. It's ugly, takes coordination, and might be messsy or smelly, but it's cheaper than what you want. Take it!!!

I say no thanks. I want something seamless. I need something seamless. My opinoin is that the tesla roof is my best option for converting to solar and having a back up in place for power outages.   

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #826 on: November 04, 2021, 10:51:42 AM »
So, it's like - here is something cheaper and more efficient than what you want. It's ugly, takes coordination, and might be messsy or smelly, but it's cheaper than what you want. Take it!!!

You're almost right, but you get some bits of my argument incorrect that make your analysis of what I said misleading.

You don't need a generator with any of this. Let's leave my house out for now too. (that was just an anecdote to show you that I do care and I am thinking about this stuff all the time). I'm trying to help here. Can you tell I'm not in sales?

You can get integrated battery backup and a solar panel install just like a Tesla Roof + Powerwall. For cheaper. No mess or smell. Clean water collection. It's better in every way except aesthetics. In theory you could do standard solar and a Powerwall, but Tesla has stopped selling just Powerwalls due to supply issues. You have to buy their roof. It's not worth the roof to me to get the Powerwall, so I would just use one of the other myriad of backup battery options out there. You are aware that there are other battery backup options, right?

The Powerwall and Tesla Roof are only connected because Tesla will only sell them that way. In functionality, they are two completely different pieces of the electrical puzzle. You can install one or the other for different purposes it doesn't have to be a package.

The anecdote for the Tesla Roof that I can think of is over-the-range microwave hood vents. They work worse because the functionality of each isn't very compatible. The fact that it's a dual purpose means that it breaks more often (steam from the stove getting in all the electronics). And if one breaks you have to replace the whole unit. It's better to have a hood vent and separate microwave. Fittingly, despite this being a bad arrangement, it is common (showing that the Tesla roof may still succeed despite being a "bad" design).
« Last Edit: November 04, 2021, 10:57:46 AM by StashingAway »

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #827 on: November 04, 2021, 11:03:49 AM »

Then - so for about 80-90% of the year, I have full sun on the south side of my roof, but in the hottest time of the year, the sun is on the north side of my roof. So that would be a problem under your scenario. I also have a small amount of roof that faces east and west. the roof has a very steep pitch, which I think will be excellent for solar colelction most of the years and I like having solar collection going on over all four of those areas.

Erm.... the sun is still in the south for the most of the day in the summer, it just sets and rises north of the equator. And due to the filtration of the atmosphere, when it's settign and rising there is significantly less solar gain potential even with sun tracking panels. West facing panels are great for summer, though, because that's when heating load is highest and when you can benefit from the summer solar path the most. But south is generally still better if you only had one option (they will generate the most, even in summer, just not as much in the early or late hours of the day)

But aside from that, you can also put standard panels east and west. Or, you can fit more standard panels on your south facing roof (because they're more efficient than Teslas). It's never really beneficial to put solar on a north roof unless you don't have any more room on south/east/west roofs.

MinorMiner

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #828 on: November 04, 2021, 11:03:55 AM »
I think it's worth taking note of the approach Tesla took in introducing EV's to the market. Start at the high end, use these profits to subsidize the R&D and capital expenditures necessary to work down market. In this context, Tesla solar roof is a best an early model Model S. It is a product that is a work in progress. Available to a few, relatively wealthy consumers, who also happen to be tastemakers. I would expect to see solar roofs move down market over the next decade, just as EVs have this past decade.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #829 on: November 04, 2021, 11:08:49 AM »
Maybe, to date. The world is rapidly changing, the texas situation scared the shit out of me. We get -20 degree weather sometimes, and I tried to imagine us without power and how long we'd last. Not long. and we have a lot of pets. What would we do?

We have gas heat, but it doesn't work without the electric component. We just need a drop of electricity to run the boiler. I'm definitely looking into tesla roof and batteries for peace of mind on this.

A small gasoline generator is a few hundred bucks and would keep your heat on and supply electricity for other needs as well.

If you're willing to do something more permanent and integrated (and clearly you are if you're considering solar/battery backup) then a natural gas back up generator can supply all the electricity you'd need for as long as you need it with no worries about running out of power. Size it to run just a few essentials, or your entire house. They're also likely to  have a much longer lifespan than solar panels/batteries and won't lose capacity over time. Spend less than $10k once, and be good for 30+ years.

All true, but missing is the fact that a solar/battery installation while more expensive upfront does pay itself off over time due to net metering and energy arbitrage. So, at the 10-12 year mark the solar PV system will have paid for itself. Not true for the gas generator.PV and solar will likely also increase your homeís value more than a backup generator for the same reason. Not saying one is clearly better, but reduced energy bills need to be factored.

That depends entirely on location though right? Net metering policies are highly variable where they do exist and aren't a given to exist at all. Adequate solar energy isn't a given either. In parts of the West, with high intensity sunlight they probably work out great. In the Midwest or NE where it's mostly cloudy and days are short from November to March? Not so much.
The NG backup generator can power the entire house pretty much indefinitely regardless of weather conditions or season, costs less up front, likely lasts longer than the backup battery, and won't lose performance over time the way that batteries and solar panels can

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #830 on: November 04, 2021, 11:18:17 AM »
I think it's worth taking note of the approach Tesla took in introducing EV's to the market. Start at the high end, use these profits to subsidize the R&D and capital expenditures necessary to work down market. In this context, Tesla solar roof is a best an early model Model S. It is a product that is a work in progress. Available to a few, relatively wealthy consumers, who also happen to be tastemakers. I would expect to see solar roofs move down market over the next decade, just as EVs have this past decade.

I think this is what most people expect... but what I'm suggesting here is that the Model S approach worked really well because there were no other examples of EVs on the market in general.

Tesla solar roof is like a Fiskar Karma- it's just an expensive alternative to a system that already works. There are already solar panels on roofs. And there are already battery backups. Tesla roofs aren't adding anything except aesthetics (and that they force you to buy one if you want a Powerwall, a much superior product IMO).

Edit: (lots of these for me, lol) and much like solar roadways, their roof panels will never be as efficient as straight solar panels due to coloring and texture. Again, this is less of an issue than cost, but I did want to note it. They are limited by physics in this aspect (in the same vein, lithium battery capacity is showing strong signs of reaching maximum density).

I think there is still a market for Tesla-Roof like systems, but the whole idea isn't very scalable. If solar generation is indeed the best way to make energy, then we are going to see more solar farms being built with proper panel angles (or solar tracking) and more easily cleaned. Large scale solar systems producing energy will make utilities less incentivized to have strong net metering payments because they will already be getting energy generation when the sun is out. Right now it is a small population of houses but that power will be less valuable for grid management. It may be beneficial to only have a Powerwall for price arbitrage and let the utilities generate the solar plant (this I think is optimal, but I'm not going to try to crystal ball this one). These are the things that I think will limit the ability for Tesla to scale the same way they are doing with cars. The hurdles on the grid are not the same as the hurdles in automotive.

I have no doubt that Tesla has great minds on this. I do have some doubt that investors do.
« Last Edit: November 04, 2021, 11:33:55 AM by StashingAway »

Paper Chaser

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #831 on: November 04, 2021, 11:29:56 AM »
or are we going with a generator, which I don't want because they seem messy, smelly and dangerous. how big are they? where would I put them? how do I turn them on? All things I don't want to know about.

I say no thanks. I want something seamless. I need something seamless. My opinoin is that the tesla roof is my best option for converting to solar and having a back up in place for power outages.

A "whole house" generator sits outside your home, somewhere in between your home's gas meter and your electrical panel. It's a permanent part of your home at that point. Size varies depending on your needs, but they're usually a box not much larger than a heat pump like this:


They have a transfer switch that automatically detects power outages and instantly turns the generator on until the power is restored. You don't have to refuel it, start it, or anything else. It's fully integrated. I've got a home that's large by MMM standards with lots of electrical needs (2 HVAC systems, 3 garage doors, charging needs for PHEV, etc) and sizing calculators put an entry level system for my needs at about $4500 before install to never experience a power outage again.
« Last Edit: November 04, 2021, 11:34:32 AM by Paper Chaser »

kendallf

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #832 on: November 04, 2021, 11:34:20 AM »
I think it's worth taking note of the approach Tesla took in introducing EV's to the market. Start at the high end, use these profits to subsidize the R&D and capital expenditures necessary to work down market. In this context, Tesla solar roof is a best an early model Model S. It is a product that is a work in progress. Available to a few, relatively wealthy consumers, who also happen to be tastemakers. I would expect to see solar roofs move down market over the next decade, just as EVs have this past decade.

I think this is what most people expect... but what I'm suggesting here is that the Model S approach worked really well because there were no other examples of EVs on the market in general.

Tesla solar roof is like a Fiskar Karma- it's just an expensive alternative to a system that already works. There are already solar panels on roofs. And there are already battery backups. Tesla roofs aren't adding anything except aesthetics (and that they force you to buy one if you want a Powerwall, a much superior product IMO).

I think it will expand and trickle down because it's dumb to have one layer on your roof to shed water and another to generate electricity when one layer could do both.  The increasingly short replacement cycle of shingles (at least here in FL) to comply with insurance companies' wishes will make the maintenance issues of regular solar panels worse, and a longer lasting combined option more attractive.

I just logged into the forum after a long absence and saw this thread about whether Tesla is a good investment or not -- I bought Tesla with my gambling money back in 2017 ($6500 in a Roth IRA).  I wanted a Tesla car but couldn't justify it; I joked that when the stock made enough to pay for a car I'd buy one.

I bought a Model S earlier this year; that initial $6500 purchase of shares is now worth $117k.  I try to remember that was dumb luck and timing.. it could tank tomorrow. 

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #833 on: November 04, 2021, 11:42:35 AM »
I think it will expand and trickle down because it's dumb to have one layer on your roof to shed water and another to generate electricity when one layer could do both.  The increasingly short replacement cycle of shingles (at least here in FL) to comply with insurance companies' wishes will make the maintenance issues of regular solar panels worse, and a longer lasting combined option more attractive.

What's the replacement cycle on metal roofs?

kendallf

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #834 on: November 04, 2021, 11:50:17 AM »
I think it will expand and trickle down because it's dumb to have one layer on your roof to shed water and another to generate electricity when one layer could do both.  The increasingly short replacement cycle of shingles (at least here in FL) to comply with insurance companies' wishes will make the maintenance issues of regular solar panels worse, and a longer lasting combined option more attractive.

What's the replacement cycle on metal roofs?

Hopefully much longer in most cases.  However, my brother recently showed me some metal roofs that rusted in less than 15 years on oceanfront properties in south FL (we grew up roofing, he is still doing it). 

I actually agree that the Tesla roof is not there yet on cost or performance; I put metal roofs on my last two houses and will do metal roof/conventional solar panels on the house I'm building next year because I can do the labor myself and save money/gain performance.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #835 on: November 04, 2021, 11:58:36 AM »
or are we going with a generator, which I don't want because they seem messy, smelly and dangerous. how big are they? where would I put them? how do I turn them on? All things I don't want to know about.

I say no thanks. I want something seamless. I need something seamless. My opinoin is that the tesla roof is my best option for converting to solar and having a back up in place for power outages.

A "whole house" generator sits outside your home, somewhere in between your home's gas meter and your electrical panel. It's a permanent part of your home at that point. Size varies depending on your needs, but they're usually a box not much larger than a heat pump like this:


They have a transfer switch that automatically detects power outages and instantly turns the generator on until the power is restored. You don't have to refuel it, start it, or anything else. It's fully integrated. I've got a home that's large by MMM standards with lots of electrical needs (2 HVAC systems, 3 garage doors, charging needs for PHEV, etc) and sizing calculators put an entry level system for my needs at about $4500 before install to never experience a power outage again.

Thanks, I have a vision of a big ugly machine hauled out of the garage when the power fails. Might be a memory of my uncles farm back in the day on already antiquaited materials.


lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #836 on: November 04, 2021, 01:24:01 PM »
I don't know Tesla's solar scale. I ordered the standard panels and a powerwall. 12.25kw system with a powerwall is around $30,000 before any tax credits $2/W + powerwall. For me, that's more than enough power and piece of mind. I'm in the woods and don't mind how solar looks. It's a just a roof to me. I'm not sure what the credits will end up being with potential legislation. Currently the net outlay is about 10 years of electricity cost at 10c/kwh with tax credits under today's law.

Tesla's pricing is really good. A similar system from local solar installers in my state is upwards of $50,000.

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #837 on: November 04, 2021, 01:35:43 PM »
I don't know Tesla's solar scale. I ordered the standard panels and a powerwall. 12.25kw system with a powerwall is around $30,000 before any tax credits $2/W + powerwall. For me, that's more than enough power and piece of mind. I'm in the woods and don't mind how solar looks. It's a just a roof to me. I'm not sure what the credits will end up being with potential legislation. Currently the net outlay is about 10 years of electricity cost at 10c/kwh with tax credits under today's law.

Tesla's pricing is really good. A similar system from local solar installers in my state is upwards of $50,000.

That's their panels, and not their solar tiles, right? That's a pretty good price for that sized system... pretty wild that that same system would cost you $50,000 from other installers.


lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #838 on: November 04, 2021, 03:14:54 PM »
Yeah, just the panels.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #839 on: November 04, 2021, 04:56:14 PM »
I think it's worth taking note of the approach Tesla took in introducing EV's to the market. Start at the high end, use these profits to subsidize the R&D and capital expenditures necessary to work down market. In this context, Tesla solar roof is a best an early model Model S. It is a product that is a work in progress. Available to a few, relatively wealthy consumers, who also happen to be tastemakers. I would expect to see solar roofs move down market over the next decade, just as EVs have this past decade.

I think this is what most people expect... but what I'm suggesting here is that the Model S approach worked really well because there were no other examples of EVs on the market in general.

Tesla solar roof is like a Fiskar Karma- it's just an expensive alternative to a system that already works. There are already solar panels on roofs. And there are already battery backups. Tesla roofs aren't adding anything except aesthetics (and that they force you to buy one if you want a Powerwall, a much superior product IMO).

Edit: (lots of these for me, lol) and much like solar roadways, their roof panels will never be as efficient as straight solar panels due to coloring and texture. Again, this is less of an issue than cost, but I did want to note it. They are limited by physics in this aspect (in the same vein, lithium battery capacity is showing strong signs of reaching maximum density).

I think there is still a market for Tesla-Roof like systems, but the whole idea isn't very scalable. If solar generation is indeed the best way to make energy, then we are going to see more solar farms being built with proper panel angles (or solar tracking) and more easily cleaned. Large scale solar systems producing energy will make utilities less incentivized to have strong net metering payments because they will already be getting energy generation when the sun is out. Right now it is a small population of houses but that power will be less valuable for grid management. It may be beneficial to only have a Powerwall for price arbitrage and let the utilities generate the solar plant (this I think is optimal, but I'm not going to try to crystal ball this one). These are the things that I think will limit the ability for Tesla to scale the same way they are doing with cars. The hurdles on the grid are not the same as the hurdles in automotive.

I have no doubt that Tesla has great minds on this. I do have some doubt that investors do.

First, let me say that I do appreciate you have expertise in this area and your contributions to the discussion. I think nearly all of what youíve said in this thread is true (as of today). But, as  you yourself noted, there were a ton of supposedly super smart auto engineers at the big legacy auto companies and auto analysts on Wall Street that scoffed at Tesla's EV prospects. It can be detrimental being in an entrenched culture thatís always done it a certain way.

For example, you are correct that as of today, it does not make any financial success to install a Tesla solar roof as opposed to conventional panels on an existing roof. However, the goal of solar roof is to reach economies of scale, like they did in autos, such that the cost of installing a new solar roof is the same or comparable to a new asphalt shingle roof. At that point it's game over. Why would anyone install a roof that doesnít produce ďfreeĒ electricity for the same price as a conventional roof. Installing a conventional roof and then adding solar panels would look worse and cost more. Added benefits include the solar roof having a lifetime warranty against damage. The solar roof is far more resilient against wind, hail, and fire. No small thing in our era of climate change. I could even see insurance companies offering discounts on home insurance.

Youíve also said that renewables plus batteries arenít a utility level solution. However, in places like Hawaii, California, and Australia (Hornsdale), we are seeing massive utility scale battery installations, where Tesla Mega Packs are coupled with wind/solar farms to replace NG gas peaker plants. I understand base load is different than peakers, but I wouldnít bet against Elon/Tesla solving that as well. Transmission is solvable, it really just requires political will and capital, thereís no new technology needed. Placing wind and solar farms adjacent to existing/former power plants and placing Mega Packs at the former power plant locations is another potential solution to transmission. I also understand that sometimes the sun doesnít shine and wind doesnít blow. This can be solved by overbuilding wind and solar capacity. If we 2X capacity (shooting from hip) then weíd only need the sun to shine and wind to blow half the time and utility battery storage and Tesla software to smooth out the supply vs demand equation.

I accept that you can (and likely will :) take what Iíve written above and tell me half a dozen ways it wonít or canít work. My answer would simply be that Elon thinks it can be done and I wouldnít bet against a guy who figured out how to reuse rockets by landing them vertically. NASA, Boeing, and Lockheed all scoffed at the notion of a private company doing manned space flights, resupply missions to the space station, and the idea of reusable rockets. Elon ate their lunch and did it all at a fraction of previous costs. In comparison, I donít see how utility scale renewable plus storage is some unsolvable conundrum.
« Last Edit: November 04, 2021, 05:01:06 PM by ColoradoTribe »

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #840 on: November 04, 2021, 06:00:27 PM »
I accept that you can (and likely will :) take what Iíve written above and tell me half a dozen ways it wonít or canít work. My answer would simply be that Elon thinks it can be done and I wouldnít bet against a guy who figured out how to reuse rockets by landing them vertically. NASA, Boeing, and Lockheed all scoffed at the notion of a private company doing manned space flights, resupply missions to the space station, and the idea of reusable rockets. Elon ate their lunch and did it all at a fraction of previous costs. In comparison, I donít see how utility scale renewable plus storage is some unsolvable conundrum.

I appreciate the discussion as well. I would be thrilled if your confidence in Elon and team comes to fruition. The electrical grid is the largest and most complex thing we've built as a species. I'm sticking to my guns here, but not because I don't want it to happen. Someone just has to keep things in check. Otherwise we end up with Indegogo's for solar roadways ;)

effigy98

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #841 on: November 04, 2021, 06:02:58 PM »
Tesla is a great investment. They are innovating rapidly, have bitcoin on the balance sheet, are years and years ahead of competition, and more importantly, have a cult like following much like Apple in the past. Every time I sell some Tesla to rebalance, I die inside a little bit.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #842 on: November 04, 2021, 07:20:24 PM »
Tesla is a great investment. They are innovating rapidly, have bitcoin on the balance sheet, are years and years ahead of competition, and more importantly, have a cult like following much like Apple in the past. Every time I sell some Tesla to rebalance, I die inside a little bit.

maybe, stop selling it?


talltexan

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #843 on: November 09, 2021, 08:20:41 AM »
What's the purpose of having Bitcoin on the balance sheet? That's actually one of the least appealing things about the company, particularly since they don't seem serious about selling their cars for it.

I say this as a Bitcoin booster. If I want to own Bitcoin, I'll buy it. If I want to own a growing business, let me buy that.

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #844 on: November 09, 2021, 10:28:38 AM »
What's the purpose of having Bitcoin on the balance sheet? That's actually one of the least appealing things about the company, particularly since they don't seem serious about selling their cars for it.

I say this as a Bitcoin booster. If I want to own Bitcoin, I'll buy it. If I want to own a growing business, let me buy that.

I agree (I own Bitcoin as well- funnily enough known as my "Tesla fund"). From an investment perspective, like you said, it's the opposite of diversification- I already own the amount of Bitcoin that I want in my portfolio. I don't want to have to account for Tesla's share of bitcoin when re-balancing (this is a bit tongue-in cheek because I don't own any Tesla other than VTSAX). It's like saying: "Hey you should hire this HVAC contractor. He's really good at installing the new heat pump units. Also, he has a lot of gold buried in his yard"

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #845 on: November 09, 2021, 10:34:48 AM »
Years and years ahead of competition

This is the part that I have been pushing back a bit on. To me it's not a very reliable metric. Plenty of companies were years ahead of the competition, but the competition didn't take years to catch up... the market dynamics change after the mainstream adopts. Technology gets shared, systems get updated. Volvo was years ahead of the competition on safety, and while they're still up there, they certainly don't have the market lead like they used to.

talltexan

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #846 on: November 15, 2021, 06:56:05 AM »
Also, I started a journal--motivated by another thread--in which I give the play-by-play of my Bitcoin trading:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/journals/tall-texan's-crypto-trading-journal/

My goals are to make money, learn about the tech, and challenge myself to hold to a disciplined approach to trading a volatile asset.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #847 on: November 15, 2021, 07:17:29 AM »
Also, I started a journal--motivated by another thread--in which I give the play-by-play of my Bitcoin trading:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/journals/tall-texan's-crypto-trading-journal/

My goals are to make money, learn about the tech, and challenge myself to hold to a disciplined approach to trading a volatile asset.

was this intended for the tesla thread?

talltexan

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #848 on: November 15, 2021, 09:58:13 AM »
Since trading Bitcoin came up, I thought it was relevant. I do not actively trade $TSLA

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #849 on: November 15, 2021, 10:44:29 AM »
ah - got it.

the thread What do you think of adding a low% of crypto allocation was next to this one so I wasn't sure if maybe that was the intended target.