Author Topic: Is Tesla a good investment?  (Read 113894 times)

robartsd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #650 on: March 11, 2021, 08:26:04 AM »
No robot taxis anytime soon?

https://www.thedrive.com/tech/39647/tesla-admits-current-full-self-driving-beta-will-always-be-a-level-2-system-emails
So the clickbait title is directly contradicted by the actual quoted text. It's currently a Level 2 system. Doesn't say it "will always be" one.
To me the article isn't clear on if "Full Self Driving" will always be a Level 2 system (seems to be implied by title) or if Tesla is simply indicating that the features they are currently rolling out are still Level 2, but eventually they might roll out new "Full Self Driving" features that operate at higher levels. Self driving at levels higher than Level 2 are still 100% vaporware; I'm pretty sure that Elon would like that to change, but it sounds like Tesla's legal team is making sure that Tesla does not promise to achieve it.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #651 on: March 12, 2021, 06:41:05 AM »
When inflation rises, it's treated like a compounding savings account: earnings 5 years from now are divided by 5 years inflation.  So companies like Tesla with exponential growth prospects have most of their earnings in the future, and get hit hardest when inflation rises.

Fears of inflation would seem to hit Tesla harder than other companies, because of it's high P/E value.  That could be a factor in Tesla dropping in February.  So if that repeats during the reopening, Tesla could take further hits to it's stock price.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #652 on: March 12, 2021, 09:35:46 AM »
No robot taxis anytime soon?

https://www.thedrive.com/tech/39647/tesla-admits-current-full-self-driving-beta-will-always-be-a-level-2-system-emails
So the clickbait title is directly contradicted by the actual quoted text. It's currently a Level 2 system. Doesn't say it "will always be" one.
To me the article isn't clear on if "Full Self Driving" will always be a Level 2 system (seems to be implied by title) or if Tesla is simply indicating that the features they are currently rolling out are still Level 2, but eventually they might roll out new "Full Self Driving" features that operate at higher levels. Self driving at levels higher than Level 2 are still 100% vaporware; I'm pretty sure that Elon would like that to change, but it sounds like Tesla's legal team is making sure that Tesla does not promise to achieve it.

Waymo has had Level 4 Autonomous driving on public streets since 2017

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waymo

nihilism122

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #653 on: March 12, 2021, 10:05:53 AM »
I mostly missed the boat on Amazon, a company I thought had promise Long long ago. A DCA approach there would have yielded a fortune

Tesla intends to be more than just a car company. Itís woefully unprofitable. However, so has been amazon throughout its life.

Could TSLA be a 10 bagger a decade from now? Iím considering allocating 6% of new money and buying in every week or month.

Thoughts?

1)  I think Amazon has a lot of growth left in it, so I wouldn't avoid investing in it at all.  Name a better run company?  It is very diversified and the customer service is top notch and it's more profitable than ever. 

2)  Tesla is a good investment because people keep buying the stock.  It may not be rational based on current earnings, but they are leaders in emerging industries that will inevitably become mainstream in the coming decades.  I don't think it will be 10x higher in the next decade, but 3x-5x is realistic. 

Just my two cents.  I own shares in both companies.  Just make sure you are properly diversified. 


mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #654 on: March 12, 2021, 10:56:33 AM »
I mostly missed the boat on Amazon, a company I thought had promise Long long ago. A DCA approach there would have yielded a fortune

Tesla intends to be more than just a car company. Itís woefully unprofitable. However, so has been amazon throughout its life.

Could TSLA be a 10 bagger a decade from now? Iím considering allocating 6% of new money and buying in every week or month.

Thoughts?

1)  I think Amazon has a lot of growth left in it, so I wouldn't avoid investing in it at all.  Name a better run company?  It is very diversified and the customer service is top notch and it's more profitable than ever. 

2)  Tesla is a good investment because people keep buying the stock.  It may not be rational based on current earnings, but they are leaders in emerging industries that will inevitably become mainstream in the coming decades.  I don't think it will be 10x higher in the next decade, but 3x-5x is realistic. 

Just my two cents.  I own shares in both companies.  Just make sure you are properly diversified.

I wouldn't exactly consider that a ringing endorsment. Isn't everything supposed to triple in about 10 years - on average/at historic of about 11% per year?   Quintupling is definitely an attractive draw, but with the bottom is just the average expectation, not very compelling...

Ishmael

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #655 on: March 12, 2021, 11:37:40 AM »
I wouldn't exactly consider that a ringing endorsment. Isn't everything supposed to triple in about 10 years - on average/at historic of about 11% per year?   Quintupling is definitely an attractive draw, but with the bottom is just the average expectation, not very compelling...
The rule of thumb is doubling every 5 years at 15%, or every 7 years at 10%.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #656 on: March 15, 2021, 08:21:24 AM »
Tesla has now made more money in buying and holding Bitcoin than it has in 13 years of Building Cars. I will be shorting again if it keep up this uptrend but via Ark etf.

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #657 on: March 17, 2021, 04:49:44 PM »
No robot taxis anytime soon?

https://www.thedrive.com/tech/39647/tesla-admits-current-full-self-driving-beta-will-always-be-a-level-2-system-emails
So the clickbait title is directly contradicted by the actual quoted text. It's currently a Level 2 system. Doesn't say it "will always be" one.
To me the article isn't clear on if "Full Self Driving" will always be a Level 2 system (seems to be implied by title) or if Tesla is simply indicating that the features they are currently rolling out are still Level 2, but eventually they might roll out new "Full Self Driving" features that operate at higher levels. Self driving at levels higher than Level 2 are still 100% vaporware; I'm pretty sure that Elon would like that to change, but it sounds like Tesla's legal team is making sure that Tesla does not promise to achieve it.

Waymo has had Level 4 Autonomous driving on public streets since 2017

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waymo

Waymo has had Level 4 Autonomous driving on a very restricted number of pre-mapped-to-the-mm-level public streets since 2017 and shown little (if any) ability to generalize their solution in the ensuing 4 years. Perhaps they are trapped at a "local maximum" as Tesla has said they were before the full rewrite leading to the 8.x iterations of FSD

medinaj2160

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #658 on: March 28, 2021, 10:05:16 AM »
Tesla has now made more money in buying and holding Bitcoin than it has in 13 years of Building Cars. I will be shorting again if it keep up this uptrend but via Ark etf.

Wow you are dense. Tesla has been pouring all their money on capital they don't care about profits right now but they care about expending as fast as they can.  Are you going to tell now that Tesla makes most of their money from EV credits? Lol. Short have lost more than 40B that's more than all Tesla's cash infusion combined .... They should have bought GM instead. Have at it. GL

Waymo vs FSD beta on the same destination

https://youtu.be/sibfRCgMiFE
« Last Edit: March 28, 2021, 10:08:08 AM by medinaj2160 »

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #659 on: March 28, 2021, 03:28:39 PM »
Tesla has now made more money in buying and holding Bitcoin than it has in 13 years of Building Cars. I will be shorting again if it keep up this uptrend but via Ark etf.

I think you're the only person here who has mentioned personally shorting tesla. Did you make a lot of money on the short?

waltworks

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #660 on: March 28, 2021, 05:11:45 PM »
It was $707 a share on March 15th, and it's $618 now, so if SoccerLuvof4 did indeed short, they are doing great so far.

-W

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #661 on: March 29, 2021, 11:03:11 AM »
Quote from: medinaj2160 link=topic=89600.msg2815543#msg2815543

Wow you are dense. Tesla has been pouring all their money on capital they don't care about profits right now but they care about expending as fast as they can.  Are you going to tell now that Tesla makes most of their money from EV credits? Lol. Short have lost more than 40B that's more than all Tesla's cash infusion combined .... They should have bought GM instead. Have at it. GL.

https://youtu.be/sibfRCgMiFE

A sign of a good argument is starting it off by a personal insult.
« Last Edit: March 30, 2021, 06:50:20 PM by StashingAway »

soccerluvof4

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #662 on: March 30, 2021, 06:09:44 AM »
It was $707 a share on March 15th, and it's $618 now, so if SoccerLuvof4 did indeed short, they are doing great so far.

-W


I didn't short Tesla I shorted ARKK in and out a couple times and did pretty good. I am a total Bear against ARKK as the portfolio presently exists but wouldnt short it here. I have actually gone long a few names within the fund that have really gotten slaughtered BUT I dont know if I would buy Tesla and instead have been buying ways to play Volkswagen like POAHY which owns volkswagen. Also it was accidently leaked that in America they are changing there name to Voltswagen. Anyhow, that is just what I am doing and everyone needs to do there own thing and do there own homework. This is a very tough market right now and glad most of my money is in Vanguard but I do like to play around with some thesis here and there.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #663 on: March 30, 2021, 07:05:03 AM »
Tesla has now made more money in buying and holding Bitcoin than it has in 13 years of Building Cars. I will be shorting again if it keep up this uptrend but via Ark etf.

Wow you are dense. Tesla has been pouring all their money on capital they don't care about profits right now but they care about expending as fast as they can.  Are you going to tell now that Tesla makes most of their money from EV credits? Lol. Short have lost more than 40B that's more than all Tesla's cash infusion combined .... They should have bought GM instead. Have at it. GL

Waymo vs FSD beta on the same destination

https://youtu.be/sibfRCgMiFE



If you chose to insult me perhaps you should read my post again. I did not say anything about the future of Tesla and or their business plan. I made a statement and why I shorted ARKK. You are dense to think the past is the present and the shorts that have lost in the past have not made a ton of money of late. But then again I cant speak for Tesla as I shorted ARKK. So if I am dense then you better take a hard look in the mirror and perhaps reconsider the position you must be holding on to so desperately trying to defend for some reason. Wish you the best and great fortune.

firemane

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #664 on: March 30, 2021, 03:50:14 PM »
Emotions are rampant in the investment community right now especially around Bitcoin and tsla.Iíll admit I have had some butthurt thoughts about not buying tsla (and many other missed opportunities).  I personally donít think the stock will ďgrow into its P/E ratioĒ especially with all of the zoomers getting stimulus checks and potentially driving the price up higher. That being said on something this where it is more of a cult like following I canít feel confident that it will all crash back down as mmm suggested either in a recent article either. Feels like a coin flip to me.

Note: Also a personal bias may have crept in earlier on because the cars look dorky to me besides the roadster, kind of like those pants that zip off into shorts (no offense to those who wear them lol).

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #665 on: March 31, 2021, 06:33:38 PM »
It was $707 a share on March 15th, and it's $618 now, so if SoccerLuvof4 did indeed short, they are doing great so far.

-W


I didn't short Tesla I shorted ARKK in and out a couple times and did pretty good. I am a total Bear against ARKK as the portfolio presently exists but wouldnt short it here. I have actually gone long a few names within the fund that have really gotten slaughtered BUT I dont know if I would buy Tesla and instead have been buying ways to play Volkswagen like POAHY which owns volkswagen. Also it was accidently leaked that in America they are changing there name to Voltswagen. Anyhow, that is just what I am doing and everyone needs to do there own thing and do there own homework. This is a very tough market right now and glad most of my money is in Vanguard but I do like to play around with some thesis here and there.

Quote
In case you missed it, this week the carmaker entered the spotlight after announcing that, at least in America, it was changing its name to "Voltswagen," and would use the new name in ads and on its electric vehicles. Volkswagen later backtracked and said it's definitely not changing its name and that the whole thing was an April Fools'-inspired marketing ploy.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/31/cars/volkswagen-voltswagen-securities-law/index.html

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #666 on: April 03, 2021, 07:28:32 AM »
Really impressive Q1 production numbers, though apparently the S/X line upgrade is taking long than anticipated - zero new S/X in 1Q.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #667 on: May 27, 2021, 09:52:51 AM »
While scanning news stories, I found this Motor Trend article comparing the big 4 electric trucks.  In the $40k range, Tesla has better stats, while Ford has the customer base and aesthetics.
https://www.motortrend.com/news/2022-ford-f-150-lightning-vs-rivian-r1t-gmc-hummer-ev-cybertruck-specs-comparison/

People who own "heavy duty pickups" are overwhelmingly Republican - there's numerous articles on it, but this one has clear graphs on each vehicle type.
https://www.forbes.com/wheels/news/what-your-car-might-say-about-how-you-vote/

Because of that, I expect if Ford calls Tesla's cyber-truck a Silicon Valley toy, that will hit home (they haven't yet).  I don't think Tesla's stats make up for it, and the aesthetics probably tilt things in favor of the Ford Lightning (their electric truck).  I expect the truck competition to go heavily towards Ford.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #668 on: May 27, 2021, 04:34:19 PM »
While scanning news stories, I found this Motor Trend article comparing the big 4 electric trucks.  In the $40k range, Tesla has better stats, while Ford has the customer base and aesthetics.
https://www.motortrend.com/news/2022-ford-f-150-lightning-vs-rivian-r1t-gmc-hummer-ev-cybertruck-specs-comparison/

People who own "heavy duty pickups" are overwhelmingly Republican - there's numerous articles on it, but this one has clear graphs on each vehicle type.
https://www.forbes.com/wheels/news/what-your-car-might-say-about-how-you-vote/

Because of that, I expect if Ford calls Tesla's cyber-truck a Silicon Valley toy, that will hit home (they haven't yet).  I don't think Tesla's stats make up for it, and the aesthetics probably tilt things in favor of the Ford Lightning (their electric truck).  I expect the truck competition to go heavily towards Ford.

It seems to me that Tesla is incredibly far behind on their truck development... unless they have been hiding their progress and are about to finally show a few updates other than what they've shown so far (which is compared to it's competitors next to nothing).

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #669 on: June 01, 2021, 02:11:29 PM »
Yeah, Ford killed it. Ford's offering puts way more pressure on Rivian than Tesla. The R1T is in a tough spot with the Lightning being so much cheaper. Not to mention all the pressure on GM's plans for an electric Silverado.

The Cybertruck has a market. It is a better off road vehicle than either due to approach angles, ground clearance and utilitarian body materials. I still think it'll sell very well. FSD is improving rapidly. It will be the Cybertruck's killer app. The deposit numbers dwarf everything else. One reason is lock in price for FSD: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ARiJSGvfww So many videos of it doing amazing things in the hands of consumers not just engineer demos. If they don't having it at a mostly usable spot when the Cybertruck launches, that could put some downward pressure on those deposits turning into sales.

jambongris

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #670 on: June 01, 2021, 02:24:17 PM »
Is Tesla sufficiently good for the environment that it overcomes the negative environmental impact of the Bitcoin activity it is motivating?

GOOD question. I had always heard saving the environment was Musk's motivation, but this would be a step in the opposite direction, wouldn't it.

If it is revealed in a few months that Tesla reduced its Bitcoin holdings, we'll know the truth - that Musk was using his celebrity status to raise free money for Tesla and he's not a true believer in crypto.

If he sticks with it long-term, he has a different motive.
Tesla to stop accepting Bitcoin as payment (CBC)

Rockies

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #671 on: June 03, 2021, 12:20:21 PM »
A lot less chatter on this thread after Tesla stock drops from 900$ to 600$ over the past 5 months. Its the classic thing - everyone will chat about an asset as its exploding, but when its not doing so well people dont seem to be bragging about their losses. Granted longer term investors are still doing very well on Tesla. Seems like the companies flashy bull run is in a rut now, with product delays and increasing competition. I have no idea what the future will hold so I am not making any arguments there.

bacchi

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #672 on: June 03, 2021, 12:52:12 PM »
A lot less chatter on this thread after Tesla stock drops from 900$ to 600$ over the past 5 months. Its the classic thing - everyone will chat about an asset as its exploding, but when its not doing so well people dont seem to be bragging about their losses. Granted longer term investors are still doing very well on Tesla. Seems like the companies flashy bull run is in a rut now, with product delays and increasing competition. I have no idea what the future will hold so I am not making any arguments there.

Momentum investing has an entry point and an exit point. Many people forget about the latter until it's too late.


ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #673 on: June 03, 2021, 02:00:46 PM »
A lot less chatter on this thread after Tesla stock drops from 900$ to 600$ over the past 5 months. Its the classic thing - everyone will chat about an asset as its exploding, but when its not doing so well people dont seem to be bragging about their losses. Granted longer term investors are still doing very well on Tesla. Seems like the companies flashy bull run is in a rut now, with product delays and increasing competition. I have no idea what the future will hold so I am not making any arguments there.

This is why any stock you are hearing about on media / social media is probably not "a good investment".

At one point I considered simulating a short fund based on the number of times a stock is mentioned on Yahoo Finance, Motley Fool, or Seeking Alpha.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #674 on: June 04, 2021, 04:08:09 PM »
A lot less chatter on this thread after Tesla stock drops from 900$ to 600$ over the past 5 months. Its the classic thing - everyone will chat about an asset as its exploding, but when its not doing so well people dont seem to be bragging about their losses. Granted longer term investors are still doing very well on Tesla. Seems like the companies flashy bull run is in a rut now, with product delays and increasing competition. I have no idea what the future will hold so I am not making any arguments there.

on the other hand - I'm amazed the chatting went on so long! What more is there to say?

theoverlook

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #675 on: June 08, 2021, 09:15:35 AM »
A lot less chatter on this thread after Tesla stock drops from 900$ to 600$ over the past 5 months. Its the classic thing - everyone will chat about an asset as its exploding, but when its not doing so well people dont seem to be bragging about their losses. Granted longer term investors are still doing very well on Tesla. Seems like the companies flashy bull run is in a rut now, with product delays and increasing competition. I have no idea what the future will hold so I am not making any arguments there.

And yet someone buying in the day this thread was posted sits on a 102% annual return, for a compounded total return of 954%. I would not be complaining if I had bought shares then, despite a 5 month slide. I did not buy and do not own shares outside of vtsax, but still think the answer to the question in 2018 was apparently a resounding "yes."

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #676 on: July 28, 2021, 04:17:07 PM »
Thought this was an interesting and informative exercise. We’ve debated in the past whether it was worthwhile to assign a value to Tesla using traditional PE ratio metrics, considering Tesla is still in it's rapid growth phase. Appears Tesla may make this PE debate moot by the end of the year.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrtdmnLJ-qI&list=RDCMUCMmJ5nBx9ibaBo4LegyQ52w


v8rx7guy

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #677 on: July 28, 2021, 06:14:58 PM »
I enjoy the fact that Tesla is now included in the S&P500 and I /most of us get plenty of exposure to Tesla that way.  I'm along for the ride, I even got a decent amount of runup over the last few years from Tesla since I was a total stock market investor rather than an S&P500 investor.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #678 on: July 29, 2021, 04:14:19 PM »
Thought this was an interesting and informative exercise. Weíve debated in the past whether it was worthwhile to assign a value to Tesla using traditional PE ratio metrics, considering Tesla is still in it's rapid growth phase. Appears Tesla may make this PE debate moot by the end of the year.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrtdmnLJ-qI&list=RDCMUCMmJ5nBx9ibaBo4LegyQ52w

That was crazy! Do you think it is really possible?

I would die laughing......

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #679 on: July 29, 2021, 10:54:02 PM »
Is it possible? Certainly. Tesla just needs to execute to achieve existing, stated goals and maintain their current growth rate. No guarantee and some external factors could slow progress, but I donít see any of this as far-fetched or as Tesla needing to catch lightning in a bottle.  Margins continue to grow. Increase volume on top of increasing margins and revenue snowballs quickly.

Curious, why die laughing?

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #680 on: July 30, 2021, 08:25:50 AM »

And yet someone buying in the day this thread was posted sits on a 102% annual return, for a compounded total return of 954%. I would not be complaining if I had bought shares then, despite a 5 month slide. I did not buy and do not own shares outside of vtsax, but still think the answer to the question in 2018 was apparently a resounding "yes."

One of the most interesting quotes I have heard from a statistician (whom I forgot the name) is:

"You cannot determine the quality of a decision by it's outcome"

I've thought a lot about that quote, and in part it seems to have some existential and free will implications. And it can't be applied to much so it's not very practical. It's kind of in line with: "Improbable things happen all the time"

Without being too handwavy, I'm not too convinced with the outcomes of many of these things. Someone playing with the deck stacked against them could have a cosmic 1/100 chance of success and do everything right to get that to a 3/100 chance. Despite tripling their opportunity, they still end up with a poor dice roll and look to have made a bad decision. On the other hand someone could start with a 3/100 chance of success, screw it all up to a 1/100 chance of success, but get that lucky roll and appear to be a strategic genius despite doing everything wrong. There's no real way of evaluating the quality of a decision or action based on the outcome because we don't have a control to test against, or multiple universes to run trials. Butterfly effect and all of that. That's not to downplay any of it either... it's just ambiguous.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #681 on: July 30, 2021, 11:29:53 AM »
Is it possible? Certainly. Tesla just needs to execute to achieve existing, stated goals and maintain their current growth rate. No guarantee and some external factors could slow progress, but I donít see any of this as far-fetched or as Tesla needing to catch lightning in a bottle.  Margins continue to grow. Increase volume on top of increasing margins and revenue snowballs quickly.

Curious, why die laughing?

Interesting question. I'd be extremely tickled for sure.

Telsa has just been such a roller coaster and all the naysaying and shortsellers, etc the past few years or so. If it is all tied up in a neat bow by the end of this year/into next and all the profitability, growth, and PE questions put to rest, I'd just find it extremely amusing. Perhaps just a bit of oxygen would get me through though.

I do rather dislike musk, but I have to allign myself with all that tesla has accomplished and is going to accomplish with the postive environmental aspect of EVs.  My next vehicle will definitely be a tesla, to not only go to an EV, but to support everything that tesla has done to push the market in the EV direction.  Kind of tying into another thread - survey of per person spending with many arguments about conspicuous consumption/yearly spend. Maybe buying any electric vehicle is a good move for the planet, and many may opt for cheaper options, but I think buying a tesla is really supporting that at a much higher - and important - level.

In terms of stock pricing, I also hear a lot people saying it's too late to buy into tesla, but this vid is predicting the price could tripple in about 18 months? That would make now a really good time to buy in. Is anyone who owns it buying more?

We all have it in our portfolios now, so there's that.

I guess my laughter could be classifeid under delighted.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #682 on: July 30, 2021, 11:54:25 PM »
Is it possible? Certainly. Tesla just needs to execute to achieve existing, stated goals and maintain their current growth rate. No guarantee and some external factors could slow progress, but I donít see any of this as far-fetched or as Tesla needing to catch lightning in a bottle.  Margins continue to grow. Increase volume on top of increasing margins and revenue snowballs quickly.

Curious, why die laughing?

Interesting question. I'd be extremely tickled for sure.

Telsa has just been such a roller coaster and all the naysaying and shortsellers, etc the past few years or so. If it is all tied up in a neat bow by the end of this year/into next and all the profitability, growth, and PE questions put to rest, I'd just find it extremely amusing. Perhaps just a bit of oxygen would get me through though.

I do rather dislike musk, but I have to allign myself with all that tesla has accomplished and is going to accomplish with the postive environmental aspect of EVs.  My next vehicle will definitely be a tesla, to not only go to an EV, but to support everything that tesla has done to push the market in the EV direction.  Kind of tying into another thread - survey of per person spending with many arguments about conspicuous consumption/yearly spend. Maybe buying any electric vehicle is a good move for the planet, and many may opt for cheaper options, but I think buying a tesla is really supporting that at a much higher - and important - level.

In terms of stock pricing, I also hear a lot people saying it's too late to buy into tesla, but this vid is predicting the price could tripple in about 18 months? That would make now a really good time to buy in. Is anyone who owns it buying more?

We all have it in our portfolios now, so there's that.

I guess my laughter could be classifeid under delighted.

Ahhh, that makes sense. It would be pretty humorous for the stock price to double in price in the near term (6-12 months) after all the Tesla is overpriced rants following the last run up.

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #683 on: July 31, 2021, 09:13:51 PM »
My next vehicle will definitely be a tesla, to not only go to an EV, but to support everything that tesla has done to push the market in the EV direction.  Kind of tying into another thread - survey of per person spending with many arguments about conspicuous consumption/yearly spend. Maybe buying any electric vehicle is a good move for the planet, and many may opt for cheaper options, but I think buying a tesla is really supporting that at a much higher - and important - level.

They are also doing boneheaded things like forgoing traditional steering wheels and turn signal stalks. None of it makes any sense from a human factors or testing standpoint.

I absolutely love what they've done and are doing to the EV world, but something to me seems off about how they go about product development. Their overall vision is unmatched, but the more weird updates they do the less I trust them. It's like they're trying to distill some Platonian essence of vehicle at the expense of reality.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #684 on: July 31, 2021, 11:18:44 PM »
My next vehicle will definitely be a tesla, to not only go to an EV, but to support everything that tesla has done to push the market in the EV direction.  Kind of tying into another thread - survey of per person spending with many arguments about conspicuous consumption/yearly spend. Maybe buying any electric vehicle is a good move for the planet, and many may opt for cheaper options, but I think buying a tesla is really supporting that at a much higher - and important - level.

They are also doing boneheaded things like forgoing traditional steering wheels and turn signal stalks. None of it makes any sense from a human factors or testing standpoint.

I absolutely love what they've done and are doing to the EV world, but something to me seems off about how they go about product development. Their overall vision is unmatched, but the more weird updates they do the less I trust them. It's like they're trying to distill some Platonian essence of vehicle at the expense of reality.

To be clear, the nontraditional or yoke steering wheel is currently only present on the Model S Plaid car, which is their top line vehicle. The vast majority of the the vehicles they sell (95%) have a traditional, round steering wheel. There is speculation that the yoke steering  will allow the steering ďwheel" to tuck away neatly up under the dash when true level 5 FSD is achieved and a retractable steering wheel would allow for another comfortable passenger seat in the vehicle. Lastly, the vast majority of reviews of the Plaid Model S indicate the use of the yoke steering wheel is a quick and easy adaptation.

Tesla does push the envelope. They engineer vehicles from the ground up using first principles. You donít push the envelope and move an entire industry forward without pushing the limits of change and change is never completely comfortable. Critiques and disapproval of individual design elements are fair and to be expected, but seem to be missing the forest for the trees in my opinion. For some folks it might be a bridge too far, but youíll never please everyone any way.

The Cybertruck is funky looking at first too. But again here, there is sound reasoning behind the design. The unpainted, angular body is pressed from a single piece of stainless steel. By eliminating most of the welds and the need for a paint shop, the price decreases and the durability and strength increases. Tesla promotes utility, efficiency, and pragmatism over traditional aesthetics.

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #685 on: August 02, 2021, 10:50:25 AM »
I purchased a Model Y over the weekend. I've made over a $1million on Tesla stock and options and feel comfortable supporting their products and services even though it's incongruent with the mustachian mindset. In the last quarter, Tesla had 25% gross margin after regulatory credits in comparison to the 13% of F, GM, and TM. I wonder if the profit after credits made Michael Burry a little shaky on his $530 million short based on regulatory credits.

Anyways, the Model Y doesn't come until December. They're selling a ton of them.

bwall

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #686 on: August 02, 2021, 11:05:45 AM »
Has Tesla provided any guidance about the chip shortage? Are they affected or not? Or perhaps the shortage is enabling them to conquer market share?

dougules

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #687 on: August 02, 2021, 12:20:23 PM »
In terms of stock pricing, I also hear a lot people saying it's too late to buy into tesla, but this vid is predicting the price could tripple in about 18 months? That would make now a really good time to buy in. Is anyone who owns it buying more?

We all have it in our portfolios now, so there's that.

I guess my laughter could be classifeid under delighted.

https://companiesmarketcap.com/automakers/largest-automakers-by-market-cap/

Tesla currently is not just the automaker with the highest market cap; it's worth the next highest 5 put together.  If its value tripled, it would be worth 8x as much as Toyota.  Do you believe it will eventually earn 8x what Toyota does and 25x what GM does?

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #688 on: August 02, 2021, 03:03:25 PM »
In terms of stock pricing, I also hear a lot people saying it's too late to buy into tesla, but this vid is predicting the price could tripple in about 18 months? That would make now a really good time to buy in. Is anyone who owns it buying more?

We all have it in our portfolios now, so there's that.

I guess my laughter could be classifeid under delighted.

https://companiesmarketcap.com/automakers/largest-automakers-by-market-cap/

Tesla currently is not just the automaker with the highest market cap; it's worth the next highest 5 put together.  If its value tripled, it would be worth 8x as much as Toyota.  Do you believe it will eventually earn 8x what Toyota does and 25x what GM does?

huh? we were talking about a video that someone posted a link to.

cosine88

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #689 on: August 04, 2021, 11:52:33 PM »

Do you believe it will eventually earn 8x what Toyota does and 25x what GM does?
[/quote]

Toyota and GM don't put solar panels on peoples' roofs as far as I know, and they probably aren't exploring making video games. Tesla believes that once they have mastered FSD, people will want to play video games while driving.
The Tesla FSD comparison with Waymo/Google makes sense, but we don't compare their FSD products to Toyota because they have none.

Bill Gates famously licensed DOS to IBM and other PC makers. They all sold his product for him.

If Tesla wins the FSD race, they could easily license it to all the high-end luxury brands. Who would spend $250k on a Bentley or a Maserati but not add another $10k for FSD?

Tesla could take over the taxi and trucking industries.

They are making factories at an incredible rate. They're making a $25k model in China and they are going to build a factory in Bangalore to mass-produce a vehicle that the middle/upper middle class in India can actually afford.

Telsa has the most efficient batteries in the world.

They have other innovations like the best crash safety features, superior air filters, hell, even better paint and seats.




I'll turn it back around: Why do you think it make sense to compare Tesla to Toyota or VW or GM instead of FAANG companies?

AdrianC

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #690 on: August 05, 2021, 07:51:33 AM »
They're making a $25k model in China...
I'd be very interested in a $25k Tesla hatchback.

When will I be able to buy one in the USA, do you reckon?

I can't see Tesla putting much effort into the "Model 2"while there's a months-long wait list for their $50k+ cars.

bacchi

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #691 on: August 05, 2021, 08:12:53 AM »

I'll turn it back around: Why do you think it make sense to compare Tesla to Toyota or VW or GM instead of FAANG companies?

Is Tesla growing 10x faster than Apple or Google?

dougules

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #692 on: August 05, 2021, 10:08:38 AM »

I'll turn it back around: Why do you think it make sense to compare Tesla to Toyota or VW or GM instead of FAANG companies?

Is Tesla growing 10x faster than Apple or Google?

I compared it to other automakers because that's where the conversation was centered.  You're right that Tesla does have a lot of opportunity to move into other markets, especially power.  I'm not saying that Tesla couldn't sustainably triple in value, just that it would take tripling expectations that are already extremely high.  To compare to the big tech companies as you're mentioning, it's already ~7th for market cap and tripling would put it 3rd behind on Apple and Microsoft and ahead of Amazon and Alphabet/Google. I'm not saying that it couldn't happen; I'm just reframing what you're implying if you expect another big jump for TSLA. 

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #693 on: August 05, 2021, 12:53:03 PM »
Comparing Tesla's margin and earnings to legacy auto doesn't make any sense. The parts and assembly are completely different and battery costs are still dropping. I was asked to make a projection at "industry standard" margins earlier in the thread once which was absurd. TM is best in legacy class 9% net margin, but Tesla has 20% net margin potential like Google and Apple. The ROIC is the reason its market cap is so high, and the margins it's able to do while building 2 factories is incredible. After those ramp, Tesla can do $25 billion in earnings in 2023 exceeding Toyota earnings with half the revenue. That's ~29 P/E of their price today and approximately the P/E of companies like Apple and Google. The market expects Tesla to grow into its price. Now envision it's 2023 and Tesla is building more factories or gets FSD off the ground. A company settles at a P/E when growth slows. Tesla can grow through the rest of this decade. TSLA is not expensive right now, IMO.

bacchi

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #694 on: August 05, 2021, 01:42:16 PM »
Comparing Tesla's margin and earnings to legacy auto doesn't make any sense. The parts and assembly are completely different and battery costs are still dropping. I was asked to make a projection at "industry standard" margins earlier in the thread once which was absurd. TM is best in legacy class 9% net margin, but Tesla has 20% net margin potential like Google and Apple. The ROIC is the reason its market cap is so high, and the margins it's able to do while building 2 factories is incredible. After those ramp, Tesla can do $25 billion in earnings in 2023 exceeding Toyota earnings with half the revenue. That's ~29 P/E of their price today and approximately the P/E of companies like Apple and Google. The market expects Tesla to grow into its price. Now envision it's 2023 and Tesla is building more factories or gets FSD off the ground. A company settles at a P/E when growth slows. Tesla can grow through the rest of this decade. TSLA is not expensive right now, IMO.

In order for Tesla to have a similar PE as AAPL or GOOG, the price would have to stagnate for years until earnings caught up. Or, the price would have to drop. Either way, that means that Tesla stock doesn't seem like such a good investment at this time.

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #695 on: August 05, 2021, 02:09:57 PM »

In order for Tesla to have a similar PE as AAPL or GOOG, the price would have to stagnate for years until earnings caught up. Or, the price would have to drop. Either way, that means that Tesla stock doesn't seem like such a good investment at this time.

Today's market cap relative to 2023 earnings. Tesla isn't mature and gets growth PE; I was trying to explain today's price and why it's closer to FAANG than Auto (ROIC and Net Margin). The market is forward looking. I was also trying to say imagine continuing growth through the rest of the decade. I think it means it's a fantastic investment.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2021, 02:11:50 PM by lemonlyman »

bacchi

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #696 on: August 05, 2021, 02:28:40 PM »

In order for Tesla to have a similar PE as AAPL or GOOG, the price would have to stagnate for years until earnings caught up. Or, the price would have to drop. Either way, that means that Tesla stock doesn't seem like such a good investment at this time.

Today's market cap relative to 2023 earnings. Tesla isn't mature and gets growth PE; I was trying to explain today's price and why it's closer to FAANG than Auto (ROIC and Net Margin). I was also trying to say imagine continuing growth through the rest of the decade. I think it means it's a fantastic investment.

Understood. There is definitely a growth multiplier in play.

It doesn't explain why Tesla is at ~350 PE and GOOG is at ~30 PE. Google had a YOY revenue growth of 68% last quarter and its profits were $18/$61B.  Tesla had a 98% revenue growth and its profits were $1/$12B.

Now, Tesla did have nearly 1000% profit growth last quarter YOY (compared to GOOG's 166%). Is that type of profit growth expected to continue? That seems unlikely.

That doesn't mean the stock won't rise but it won't be on traditional fundamentals.

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #697 on: August 05, 2021, 07:29:01 PM »
https://companiesmarketcap.com/automakers/largest-automakers-by-market-cap/

Tesla currently is not just the automaker with the highest market cap; it's worth the next highest 5 put together.  If its value tripled, it would be worth 8x as much as Toyota.  Do you believe it will eventually earn 8x what Toyota does and 25x what GM does?

Toyota is doggedly avoiding the transition to BEVs - sure, they have made some efforts and reluctantly put some plugs on a tiny fraction of hybrids while wasting billions on a hydrogen boondoggle.  If they don't turn things around quite soon, I can see them being bankrupt in a decade.

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #698 on: August 05, 2021, 07:30:35 PM »
They're making a $25k model in China...
I'd be very interested in a $25k Tesla hatchback.

When will I be able to buy one in the USA, do you reckon?

I can't see Tesla putting much effort into the "Model 2"while there's a months-long wait list for their $50k+ cars.

If the rumors are true, they've created a prototype "Model 2" in China. They're a long way from mass production even in China. I don't see it being generally available here any sooner than 2023 at the earliest.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #699 on: August 06, 2021, 06:40:38 AM »
They're making a $25k model in China...
I'd be very interested in a $25k Tesla hatchback.

When will I be able to buy one in the USA, do you reckon?

I can't see Tesla putting much effort into the "Model 2"while there's a months-long wait list for their $50k+ cars.

If the rumors are true, they've created a prototype "Model 2" in China. They're a long way from mass production even in China. I don't see it being generally available here any sooner than 2023 at the earliest.

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