Author Topic: Is Tesla a good investment?  (Read 113763 times)

use2betrix

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #350 on: February 03, 2020, 07:57:19 PM »
Tesla is up about 150% since the start of this thread from March 2018....

aspiringnomad

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #351 on: February 03, 2020, 09:36:29 PM »
Tesla is up about 150% since the start of this thread from March 2018....

I've got it at 193% from the date the thread was started. In any case, I'm still expecting a sharp pull-back sometime in the near-term, but I've got no idea when and no interest into trying to guess exactly when, let alone acting on that guess.

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #352 on: February 04, 2020, 06:38:21 AM »
This valuation is very high for today's activity. Depending on what your projections look like over the next 10 years, $161 billion could still be low.

Conjecture until Mid-February, but a couple of weeks ago, Larry Fink of Blackrock announced that it was starting to exit carbon based stocks and reallocate capital to sustainability. Blackrock has $7 trillion under management, but there aren't a lot of major plays in sustainability right now except Tesla. Being responsible for a $100 billion raise is consistent with their message, and if that's their long play, these levels would hold pretty well over time.

JetBlast

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #353 on: February 04, 2020, 08:27:51 AM »
Conjecture until Mid-February, but a couple of weeks ago, Larry Fink of Blackrock announced that it was starting to exit carbon based stocks and reallocate capital to sustainability. Blackrock has $7 trillion under management, but there aren't a lot of major plays in sustainability right now except Tesla. Being responsible for a $100 billion raise is consistent with their message, and if that's their long play, these levels would hold pretty well over time.

I think the announcement moved TSLA as much any buying by Blackrock.  There was very high short interest in TSLA, but would you want to be short if you though a big player like Blackrock was starting to take a major long position?  TSLA's chart looks like a classic short squeeze.   


Daisyedwards800

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #354 on: February 04, 2020, 09:44:34 AM »
So far I own 6 shares of Tesla...I've made $3500.  Should I take my profits now?

JLee

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #355 on: February 04, 2020, 09:45:36 AM »
So far I own 6 shares of Tesla...I've made $3500.  Should I take my profits now?

You've made another $30 since this post, lol

talltexan

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #356 on: February 04, 2020, 12:14:13 PM »
Obviously you want to wait until it's higher to take profits.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #357 on: February 04, 2020, 02:24:46 PM »
Th brokest, least financially sound person I've ever met told me 6 months ago that TSLA would be down around $10 in a year....next time he gives me a "hot tip" I'll know what to do!!

At one point I thought about aggregating data from Yahoo Finance and SeekingAlpha.com and analyzing the data to see if the stocks being promoted there could be reliably shorted. Remember when dry bulk shippers were the next big thing? Dryships FTW!

talltexan

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #358 on: February 05, 2020, 09:01:58 AM »
I remember that dry-ship spike.

But seriously, how do you capture that kind of gain? If you are truly buy-hold, then you wouldn't even log into your account to see that it's gone up 35X. It'd be back down to your basis by the time you check, and you'll just see that fantastic price on the annual high and feel like maybe you missed something.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #359 on: February 05, 2020, 10:58:19 AM »
I remember that dry-ship spike.

But seriously, how do you capture that kind of gain? If you are truly buy-hold, then you wouldn't even log into your account to see that it's gone up 35X. It'd be back down to your basis by the time you check, and you'll just see that fantastic price on the annual high and feel like maybe you missed something.

Definitely an active strategy. Iíd use options to do bear spreads on the latest flash in the pan being celebrated on the more stupid corners of media and social media. Then write bullish spreads on the total market index to offset the risk of a rising tide. I would call my little hedge fund the Stupid Fund in order to get viral media attention.

hodedofome

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #360 on: February 05, 2020, 01:34:04 PM »
I'm thinking that perfect gap up with a doji candlestick on record volume yesterday was the top, at least for a while.

I sold back at $550 so I've got no skin in this game, but if I was still in it I would have sold it all yesterday.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #361 on: February 05, 2020, 01:38:03 PM »
Can someone tell me what % Tesla is of VTI? I had a go at Google and can't get that answer with my limited kungfu. Just curious how much I own.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #362 on: February 05, 2020, 02:20:13 PM »
Can someone tell me what % Tesla is of VTI? I had a go at Google and can't get that answer with my limited kungfu. Just curious how much I own.

If it's anything like my Vanguard total Stock Index Fund (VITSX) it's probably around 0.19%

Edit: yes, it is.

Tesla is on the 90-120 holding page with a market value of 1.699 B$ .  Total VTI market value 897.6 B$

https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/overview/VTI/portfolio-holdings
« Last Edit: February 05, 2020, 02:24:16 PM by v8rx7guy »

Retire-Canada

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #363 on: February 05, 2020, 07:20:40 PM »
If it's anything like my Vanguard total Stock Index Fund (VITSX) it's probably around 0.19%

Thank you.

robartsd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #364 on: February 06, 2020, 09:05:44 AM »
Can someone tell me what % Tesla is of VTI? I had a go at Google and can't get that answer with my limited kungfu. Just curious how much I own.
VTI is market cap weighted. It basically has the same fractional ownership stake in each of the companies it holds, so the percentage of VTI made up by Tesla grows as the value of Tesla goes up relative to the overall market. If the value of Tesla goes down relative to the overall market,  the percentage of VTI made up by Tesla will also go down.

hodedofome

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #365 on: February 19, 2020, 09:24:46 AM »
I'm thinking that perfect gap up with a doji candlestick on record volume yesterday was the top, at least for a while.

I sold back at $550 so I've got no skin in this game, but if I was still in it I would have sold it all yesterday.

I guess it was just a temporary top. Too many people thinking TSLA is gonna take over the electrical car world.

I bought back in yesterday morning, looks like the consolidation between $700-800 is over and this is running back up to new highs. Wouldn't surprise me to see at least $1,500 before the bull run in TSLA is over for a little while.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #366 on: February 19, 2020, 09:36:43 AM »
Dammit, another 10% pop.  I'm definitely feeling some FOMO here. 

Davnasty

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #367 on: February 19, 2020, 09:46:59 AM »
Dammit, another 10% pop.  I'm definitely feeling some FOMO here.

Right? I've never bought an individual stock but the day it dropped under $180 I was in the process of opening a Robin Hood account just to buy TSLA. I stopped and thought "what am I doing, this isn't part of my IPS".

8 months later...

But the truth is I never would have held on this long, I probably would have sold at $300 and certainly by the time it doubled.

aspiringnomad

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #368 on: February 19, 2020, 04:25:06 PM »
But the truth is I never would have held on this long, I probably would have sold at $300 and certainly by the time it doubled.

Not trying to make you feel worse FOMO, but if you're normally a buy-and-hold indexer I'd be surprised if you actually sold that early in the company's growth period. I'd guess that very few retail investors who own this stock and fit that bill are moving in and out of it at this point in the story, and that's partly what's supporting the stock price during this run-up.

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #369 on: February 19, 2020, 06:52:32 PM »
Don't jump into any stock just because it's popping. Do your research. Tesla may get cut in half next week. Or shoot passed $1000/share. Too hard to tell in the short term.

Long term, I think Tesla is an incredible opportunity so I'm holding for years unless the company stops being a leader in technology. Last week, Tesla increased the range of the S and X by 16% to 390/351 miles, respectively. The Model Y will start delivering in March with 315 miles with a dual motor. So far the competition is pathetic in comparison.

Davnasty

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #370 on: February 19, 2020, 06:59:24 PM »
But the truth is I never would have held on this long, I probably would have sold at $300 and certainly by the time it doubled.

Not trying to make you feel worse FOMO, but if you're normally a buy-and-hold indexer I'd be surprised if you actually sold that early in the company's growth period. I'd guess that very few retail investors who own this stock and fit that bill are moving in and out of it at this point in the story, and that's partly what's supporting the stock price during this run-up.

If I had gone through with it the decision would have been mentally categorized as gambling, not investing. I like Tesla as a company but I have no idea what they're worth.

FrugalSaver

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #371 on: February 22, 2020, 01:08:20 AM »
I tease the Tesla bull in the office that he ought to trim his risk profile by moving into crypto-

Whatís the latest on this?

FrugalSaver

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #372 on: February 22, 2020, 01:08:53 AM »
Iím curious what the Colorado poster is thinking these days


I've been trading the volatility with swing shares. Holding all my core shares. Last bought 10 shares at $234 on Friday. As a long-term investor I'm not worried about one bad quarter. Bears/shorts counting on a demand issue will be disappointed. They've been making that argument for about 5 years. Meanwhile Tesla has yet to spend a dollar on paid advertising.

I maintained my core shares all the way down to $180 through to a $328 close yesterday. I'm well into the green with my core position at this SP and started harvesting some gains above $300. Continued to deploy my swing trade shares as best I could over the past few months as well, buying with every over-reaction or negative news story that dipped the SP. I did catch a few falling knives that prevented me from buying as much as I would have liked at sub $200/share prices though. Analyzed all my trades YTD and I'm up about $3,000 on my swing trades, though its more accurate to say I lowered my cost basis by about $6/share, while I wait for the big gains.

I've enjoyed seeing the TSLAQ and short-seller crowd getting hammered the last few days. It will be very interesting how the stock performs on Monday.  Was Friday a one-time price adjustment based on the earnings report or the start of the long awaited short squeeze. Congrats to those who rode out the trying times and the avalanche of FUD.

How are things going?

FrugalSaver

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #373 on: February 22, 2020, 01:27:39 AM »
No justification for this stock price.  An unprofitable company that's only "growing" because they're trying to expand geographically.  U.S. sales are slowing down.  Their Q4 18 production rate essentially matched FY19 - meaning they didn't grow in '19 (remember, '18 came with the caveats of "production hell" and "look at our Q4 production for our true production rate, yada yada).

Your analysis seems pretty bizarre. Tesla produced about 50% more cars in 2019 than they did in 2018. Virtually all of which were produced in Fremont. This is in the ballpark of their long-term average growth rate, starting in 2012 with the launch of the Model S.

Do you think we see a sizeable pullback in share price from $1000?  Are we in BYND territory here?  Trying to protect profits but also not be short sighted

FrugalSaver

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #374 on: February 26, 2020, 05:56:55 PM »
Wow this thread died 😁

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #375 on: February 27, 2020, 08:10:17 AM »
After the initial price spike, it's just not that interesting ;)

It's likely to continue being a volatile stock, but even with the recent downtrend (as the whole market is doing) - it's over $700 when it was ~$180 ~6 months ago.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #376 on: February 27, 2020, 08:23:39 AM »
I feel like my buy opportunity might be back sooner than expected.  I'd like to get in below $500

vand

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #377 on: February 28, 2020, 06:59:33 AM »
Havenít really been following this thread, but this podcast I found very informative through the lens of the classic value investor: https://overcast.fm/+QyZ322bsA

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #378 on: February 28, 2020, 07:33:33 AM »
Wow this thread died 😁

Itís as if everyone lost interest in the question about whether TSLA is a good investment as soon as the stock quit going up. Weird.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #379 on: February 28, 2020, 08:53:08 AM »
Wow this thread died 😁

Itís as if everyone lost interest in the question about whether TSLA is a good investment as soon as the stock quit going up. Weird.

I'm excited to actually buy in, did not expect a buy opportunity to come so quickly

FrugalSaver

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #380 on: March 05, 2020, 03:46:26 PM »
Anyone bought any (more) yet?  Iím still waiting for further pullback. May never get it but I suspect we will

aspiringnomad

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #381 on: March 05, 2020, 03:53:01 PM »
Not much to say, really. I'm expecting a big dip post Q1 earnings, but that's 70% a defense mechanism to prepare me for the drop. Still holding for the long-term. Check back in 2024 or sooner if it goes bankwupt.

PaulMaxime

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #382 on: March 05, 2020, 03:59:46 PM »
Anyone bought any (more) yet?  Iím still waiting for further pullback. May never get it but I suspect we will

Bought 60 more shares between 630-650 on the last big drop. That brings me to about 600 shares. overall cost basis is ~240

talltexan

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #383 on: March 09, 2020, 09:08:56 AM »
The gains are nice, but isn't the 30% decline in two weeks the sign of an investment that is not appropriate for many?

Davnasty

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #384 on: March 09, 2020, 10:09:18 AM »
The gains are nice, but isn't the 30% decline in two weeks the sign of an investment that is not appropriate for many?

Investing in individual stocks is not appropriate for many

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #385 on: March 09, 2020, 10:27:40 AM »
With $20 oil, I am probably looking at buying Tesla in the $250 area.

JLee

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #386 on: March 09, 2020, 10:34:56 AM »
With $20 oil, I am probably looking at buying Tesla in the $250 area.

Even if oil were free, I'd rather drive an EV.  The world will eventually realize this.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #387 on: March 09, 2020, 10:58:39 AM »
With $20 oil, I am probably looking at buying Tesla in the $250 area.

Even if oil were free, I'd rather drive an EV.  The world will eventually realize this.

I would too, if an EV was $20,000 with a 500 mile range.  It isn't, yet.

Don't get me wrong, I actually put down $100 for a Cybertruck.  I just mean your average Joe and Jane working 7am to 5pm shift at the Waffle house are not going to be buying a $40,000 EV when they can get a $20,000 car and $1.70 gas.

FrugalSaver

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #388 on: March 12, 2020, 10:26:29 PM »
Going to be getting a lot cheaper soon. How long will it be cheaper?  Remains to be seen

v8rx7guy

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #389 on: March 12, 2020, 10:41:12 PM »
Dammit, another 10% pop.  I'm definitely feeling some FOMO here.

Throw back thursday to when TSLA was pushing 1000

talltexan

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #390 on: March 16, 2020, 08:18:55 AM »
It's amazing how expensive it was, and equally amazing how expensive it would have been to short.

Financial advisor told me he just reminds everyone that they don't have to be right on this one company, there are thousands of other ways to make money.

FrugalSaver

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #391 on: March 16, 2020, 10:37:19 PM »
Opportunity presenting itself soon.

Ive been selling puts below $200 with short term expiry

bthewalls

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #392 on: March 21, 2020, 10:01:46 AM »
isnt investing in any single company, as apposed to indexing, full of risk over a longer term period.

Tesla may be popular and sexy at the moment and look reasonable on the books, but I bought it as a long term gamble for the 10-15 year period.  Its very volatile to trade.


ender

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #393 on: March 21, 2020, 11:02:14 AM »
Something to consider is that TSLA is still up to nearly 2x it was less than 6 months ago...

vand

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #394 on: March 21, 2020, 11:16:08 AM »
I don't see how the the likely recession is going to help the bull case for TSLA at all:

- With the oil crash, Gasoline is cheaper than it has ever been

- Poltiical pressure to move against ICE vehicles will disappear. It won't be popular to cludgeon hard up ICE owners when things are tough. The environment can wait.

- People will have less money in general, so the new cars market which TSLA primarily serves is going to get hammered. They will need even more new capital even sooner than previously.
« Last Edit: March 21, 2020, 11:17:40 AM by vand »

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #395 on: April 30, 2020, 08:14:47 AM »
Q1 financials were strong somehow. Quite the roller coaster, but they laid out the path to $250 billion market cap in 2021 during the call with a production capacity of 1 million cars at 25% gross margin.

Q2 could look like anything. 20k cars produced but not yet delivered at the end of Q1. China is at 200k run rate currently. They've pushed out automatically recognizing and stopping Stop Signs and Stop lights this month, and with $600 million in deferred FSD revenue on the books, that's a nice cushion to deliver with more feature updates. With all that, it could still be terrible. I'm still holding long term because their investments are clearly starting to bear fruit. Without Covid, this stock would be over $1000 today. Weathering Q2 is a big question mark, but they've got $8.1 billion in cash so no short term liquidity issues.

2021+, pretty optimistic.

LoanShark

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #396 on: April 30, 2020, 08:34:36 AM »
I can't see the longstanding effects of COVID, namely a significant drop in commuters and therefore less gas consumption, being good for Tesla in the long term. Plus, it's a luxury car and people will not be buying luxury goods at the same rate for the short and medium term.

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #397 on: April 30, 2020, 06:26:05 PM »
I can't see the longstanding effects of COVID, namely a significant drop in commuters and therefore less gas consumption, being good for Tesla in the long term. Plus, it's a luxury car and people will not be buying luxury goods at the same rate for the short and medium term.

On the other hand, people are really liking the clean air from reduced fossil burner usage.

DarkandStormy

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #398 on: May 01, 2020, 07:28:13 AM »
Q1 financials were strong somehow. Quite the roller coaster, but they laid out the path to $250 billion market cap in 2021 during the call with a production capacity of 1 million cars at 25% gross margin.

https://twitter.com/davidein/status/1255862005535322112

Hmmm....

https://twitter.com/orthereaboot/status/1255836324202008577

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #399 on: May 01, 2020, 08:41:27 AM »
Uninterested in the conspiracy theories of malicious shorts. Einhorn's fund has been a loser for 5 years in a bull market. I'll decline Greenlight's advice and keep my own investing counsel.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-30/einhorn-s-greenlight-hedge-funds-deepen-slump-with-april-decline