Author Topic: Is Tesla a good investment?  (Read 37641 times)

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #250 on: October 26, 2019, 11:02:35 PM »
Iím curious what the Colorado poster is thinking these days


I've been trading the volatility with swing shares. Holding all my core shares. Last bought 10 shares at $234 on Friday. As a long-term investor I'm not worried about one bad quarter. Bears/shorts counting on a demand issue will be disappointed. They've been making that argument for about 5 years. Meanwhile Tesla has yet to spend a dollar on paid advertising.

I maintained my core shares all the way down to $180 through to a $328 close yesterday. I'm well into the green with my core position at this SP and started harvesting some gains above $300. Continued to deploy my swing trade shares as best I could over the past few months as well, buying with every over-reaction or negative news story that dipped the SP. I did catch a few falling knives that prevented me from buying as much as I would have liked at sub $200/share prices though. Analyzed all my trades YTD and I'm up about $3,000 on my swing trades, though its more accurate to say I lowered my cost basis by about $6/share, while I wait for the big gains.

I've enjoyed seeing the TSLAQ and short-seller crowd getting hammered the last few days. It will be very interesting how the stock performs on Monday.  Was Friday a one-time price adjustment based on the earnings report or the start of the long awaited short squeeze. Congrats to those who rode out the trying times and the avalanche of FUD.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #251 on: October 27, 2019, 07:14:32 PM »
Iím curious what the Colorado poster is thinking these days


I've been trading the volatility with swing shares. Holding all my core shares. Last bought 10 shares at $234 on Friday. As a long-term investor I'm not worried about one bad quarter. Bears/shorts counting on a demand issue will be disappointed. They've been making that argument for about 5 years. Meanwhile Tesla has yet to spend a dollar on paid advertising.

I maintained my core shares all the way down to $180 through to a $328 close yesterday. I'm well into the green with my core position at this SP and started harvesting some gains above $300. Continued to deploy my swing trade shares as best I could over the past few months as well, buying with every over-reaction or negative news story that dipped the SP. I did catch a few falling knives that prevented me from buying as much as I would have liked at sub $200/share prices though. Analyzed all my trades YTD and I'm up about $3,000 on my swing trades, though its more accurate to say I lowered my cost basis by about $6/share, while I wait for the big gains.

I've enjoyed seeing the TSLAQ and short-seller crowd getting hammered the last few days. It will be very interesting how the stock performs on Monday.  Was Friday a one-time price adjustment based on the earnings report or the start of the long awaited short squeeze. Congrats to those who rode out the trying times and the avalanche of FUD.

If one believes in the long term future of the company, what's the point of trading in and out of shares?

We're certainly not talking about a company where one can do fundamentals analysis and declare the shares overpriced at X and underpriced at Y.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #252 on: October 27, 2019, 10:31:11 PM »
Iím curious what the Colorado poster is thinking these days


I've been trading the volatility with swing shares. Holding all my core shares. Last bought 10 shares at $234 on Friday. As a long-term investor I'm not worried about one bad quarter. Bears/shorts counting on a demand issue will be disappointed. They've been making that argument for about 5 years. Meanwhile Tesla has yet to spend a dollar on paid advertising.

I maintained my core shares all the way down to $180 through to a $328 close yesterday. I'm well into the green with my core position at this SP and started harvesting some gains above $300. Continued to deploy my swing trade shares as best I could over the past few months as well, buying with every over-reaction or negative news story that dipped the SP. I did catch a few falling knives that prevented me from buying as much as I would have liked at sub $200/share prices though. Analyzed all my trades YTD and I'm up about $3,000 on my swing trades, though its more accurate to say I lowered my cost basis by about $6/share, while I wait for the big gains.

I've enjoyed seeing the TSLAQ and short-seller crowd getting hammered the last few days. It will be very interesting how the stock performs on Monday.  Was Friday a one-time price adjustment based on the earnings report or the start of the long awaited short squeeze. Congrats to those who rode out the trying times and the avalanche of FUD.

If one believes in the long term future of the company, what's the point of trading in and out of shares?

We're certainly not talking about a company where one can do fundamentals analysis and declare the shares overpriced at X and underpriced at Y.

The point of trading in and out with the swing shares is to take advantage of the extreme volatility to lower my cost basis and ultimately accumulate some more shares. Strategy comes with a risk of being caught out when/if the stock takes off, but core shares ensure I don't miss the pay day. Even if the stock takes off though, it will establish a new range of volatility to swing trade. Suppose there's also breaking the "boredom" of a straight buy and hold. Core shares are approximately 90% of shares and I swing trade with 10% of shares.

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #253 on: October 29, 2019, 07:42:56 AM »
I've held onto my shares and increased my position throughout the year. I'm much more confident in the stock than I was in May. There's huge growth potential in their upcoming product lines, and their cash balance and margins are increasing. The auto market is clearly being disrupted as EV demand surges globally, and Tesla is burgeoning so many other types of income streams that failure seems very unlikely.

MoneyQuirk

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #254 on: December 02, 2019, 03:08:26 PM »
Until it becomes consistently profitable, I would say no.

Right now betting on Tesla is almost the definition of a gamble. If it doesn't shape up it's finances, it will be bankrupt.

There's a lot of promises that it will shape up financially. So ultimately it boils down to - do you think they will?

talltexan

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #255 on: December 05, 2019, 11:45:04 AM »
I tease the Tesla bull in the office that he ought to trim his risk profile by moving into crypto-

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #256 on: December 05, 2019, 10:43:52 PM »
Until it becomes consistently profitable, I would say no.

Right now betting on Tesla is almost the definition of a gamble. If it doesn't shape up it's finances, it will be bankrupt.

There's a lot of promises that it will shape up financially. So ultimately it boils down to - do you think they will?

Anyone waiting for consistent profitability will miss the biggest gains. That's why its investing...

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #257 on: December 16, 2019, 08:35:39 AM »
Tesla shorts getting a bit of a squeeze this morning as stock approaches all time high. But hey, I'm sure bankruptcy is imminent. Ignore the Model 3s rolling off the floor from a China factory that was a dirt field in January.

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #258 on: December 16, 2019, 11:38:27 AM »
Elon has, without a doubt, been a brilliant magician.  I was a huge skeptic but don't know if I'd bet against him at this point.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #259 on: December 18, 2019, 02:13:01 PM »
Tesla closes at ATH today at $393.15. Bankruptcy is imminent.

talltexan

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #260 on: December 19, 2019, 09:03:30 AM »
I have to admit, I'm rather astonished to see it above $400/share. It's gotten within 5% of the $420 line from Musk's bizarre tweet last summer.

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #261 on: December 20, 2019, 07:18:09 AM »
The unusually high short float is getting squeezed at the same time there's general optimism in the company.

1. China factory is producing and delivering cars.
2. The price and range of the Porsche Taycan has highlighted Tesla's powertrain advantage. The story has been that competition is coming, but it seems more like competition hasn't quite figured out how to produce a compelling EV and won't succeed for maybe another year.
3. Balance sheet has been cleaned up throughout the year.
4. The Model Y is ahead of schedule in production.

Q1 2020 is a bit of a wildcard, but the full year 2020 seems very bullish. Very likely the company will be added to the S&P 500.

Bernard

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #262 on: December 24, 2019, 05:47:04 PM »
Buying Tesla is genuine speculating. But, boy, do I wish I had bought a few shares when TSLA was below 200, about half a year ago . . . .

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #263 on: December 24, 2019, 06:25:46 PM »
I like Tesla (I like SpaceX better) but it was not a good investment.

I mean it has paid off well, but so has bitcoin.  Neither was what I would consider a good investment though.

effigy98

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #264 on: December 30, 2019, 11:11:10 AM »
Tesla is so far ahead of all others. Most companies are lead by crusty old people who do not want to change. They are rent seeking and want to milk their 90 year old car companies until they are dry with the same old technology and only change if no other choice. They all say they are working on stuff, but not delivering anything reasonably competitive. They purposely make their EV offerings ugly or too expensive to not compete with their highly profitable crappy ICE cars.

Tesla is the amazon of cars and I wish I invested a little in AMZN in the early 2000s.
« Last Edit: December 30, 2019, 11:15:57 AM by effigy98 »

bthewalls

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #265 on: December 31, 2019, 04:57:46 PM »
Ok...only read heading and not one post.

Short answer no..

I bought Tesla as a gamble but isnít any non etf investment a waste in a way?...all eggs one basket with single companies?

Barry

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #266 on: December 31, 2019, 07:27:21 PM »

I bought Tesla as a gamble but isnít any non etf investment a waste in a way?...all eggs one basket with single companies?

Barry

If you don't know how to value companies, anything other than an index would be a gamble. Good companies consistently beat indexes. Take Disney for example. Disney has outperformed the SP 500 for decades. It likely will for quite some time. Disney as a company has provided a ton of value and Disney+ will increase the market cap probably 2x over the next few years. That's the value I assigned from my numbers. I've read the Simple Path to Wealth. It's a great book, and it's the best way to invest for most people, but it's not the best way to invest with ownership in a company in mind. To assume no one can beat the index, which JL Collins argues, is not only putting your mind in a box but it's demonstrably false. He's right that not everyone is Warren Buffett but there are millions of millionaires who own pieces of good companies accumulating wealth quite comfortably.

Tesla the company has an execution risk. Its potential future value is insane. I think it's a great piece of my portfolio.
« Last Edit: December 31, 2019, 07:35:51 PM by lemonlyman »

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #267 on: January 01, 2020, 09:28:52 AM »

I bought Tesla as a gamble but isnít any non etf investment a waste in a way?...all eggs one basket with single companies?

Barry

If you don't know how to value companies, anything other than an index would be a gamble. Good companies consistently beat indexes. Take Disney for example. Disney has outperformed the SP 500 for decades. It likely will for quite some time. Disney as a company has provided a ton of value and Disney+ will increase the market cap probably 2x over the next few years. That's the value I assigned from my numbers. I've read the Simple Path to Wealth. It's a great book, and it's the best way to invest for most people, but it's not the best way to invest with ownership in a company in mind. To assume no one can beat the index, which JL Collins argues, is not only putting your mind in a box but it's demonstrably false. He's right that not everyone is Warren Buffett but there are millions of millionaires who own pieces of good companies accumulating wealth quite comfortably.

Tesla the company has an execution risk. Its potential future value is insane. I think it's a great piece of my portfolio.

As an internet elder, I recall reading the same rationales for Citigroup, AOL, Yahoo, and more.

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #268 on: January 01, 2020, 11:02:15 AM »

As an internet elder, I recall reading the same rationales for Citigroup, AOL, Yahoo, and more.

As an internet elder, you should also know that many fortunes were made in each of those companies as well. But asset values require regular reevaluation. You do you. I'm not advising any investments. Everyone is free to choose index funds only to match the total market, and free to apparently be emboldened to make judgments about those who don't as if they plucked the "Index is the Answer" fruit from the tree of knowledge when the truth is that it's group think, especially on this forum.
« Last Edit: January 01, 2020, 11:03:51 AM by lemonlyman »

aspiringnomad

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #269 on: January 03, 2020, 09:04:57 AM »
This has been a fun ride. Tesla, along with Apple and Google, are sort of holdovers from my pre-indexing days. When I converted to indexing, I sold a bunch of individual stocks including AMZN :(, but kept AAPL and GOOGL partly to avoid the tax hit. I kept TSLA and bought some more during last year's swoon partly because I find it to be the single most fun publicly traded company to follow on earth. Great investing thesis, I know, but I do also believe there's a nontrivial chance it becomes a trillion dollar company sometime this decade and that upside is impossible for me to ignore.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #270 on: January 03, 2020, 10:32:03 AM »
Nice!  I thought Nokia was going to be a huge company as they were the first mover in cell phones and were dominating the industry.   Didn't turn out like I thought.

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #271 on: January 03, 2020, 11:03:45 AM »
Nice!  I thought Nokia was going to be a huge company as they were the first mover in cell phones and were dominating the industry.   Didn't turn out like I thought.

Yeah, poor old Nissan was first to the mass market with the Leaf, beating the Model S by a couple years or so and stayed ahead of Tesla in the "cumulative EVs shipped" for quite a few years. Falling by the wayside now - one reason being that (like Nokia) they've refused to update the technology fast enough. My goodness, they're still using passive battery pack cooling, which is just terrible for the lifespan (as demonstrated by actual Nissan pack lifespans.) No educated/sensible consumer would buy a Leaf today - maybe get a cheap lease deal, but that's about it.

aspiringnomad

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #272 on: January 03, 2020, 11:05:25 AM »
Nice!  I thought Nokia was going to be a huge company as they were the first mover in cell phones and were dominating the industry.   Didn't turn out like I thought.

Fair point. As you can tell I have a strong Silicon Valley/American West Coast bias. Many of the first movers located there, with access to the best software developers, a move-fast culture, and the ability to gain and sustain a foothold with US consumers seem to be relatively durable. At least in the case of Amazon, Apple, and Tesla, their hyper focus on creating a product or experience that consumers love, as opposed to just accept, seems different than the Nokia's of the world, but I'll concede that there's probably some suvivorship bias in that line of thinking.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #273 on: January 03, 2020, 03:43:52 PM »
Yes TomTX that's why I bought the Chevrolet Bolt and not the Nissan Leaf.  I was surprised that Mrmoneymustache was touting the Nissan Leaf knowing that the battery pack had a poor chance of lasting long.

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #274 on: January 05, 2020, 05:40:44 PM »
No educated/sensible consumer would buy a Leaf today - maybe get a cheap lease deal, but that's about it.

Well I would disagree as I just bought a 2012 Leaf SL.  I think it was a shrewd purchase.  The car has 11 out of 12 bars of battery health remaining, has 36k miles, and is in pristine condition.  The poor resale value of the car was to my advantage:  I got a steal at $5600.  My commute is 3 miles each way and on an average day I drive less than 15 miles.  With a trickle charge overnight it suits my purposes perfectly.

And damn is it fun to drive.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #275 on: January 05, 2020, 07:06:16 PM »
No educated/sensible consumer would buy a Leaf today - maybe get a cheap lease deal, but that's about it.

Well I would disagree as I just bought a 2012 Leaf SL.  I think it was a shrewd purchase.  The car has 11 out of 12 bars of battery health remaining, has 36k miles, and is in pristine condition.  The poor resale value of the car was to my advantage:  I got a steal at $5600.  My commute is 3 miles each way and on an average day I drive less than 15 miles.  With a trickle charge overnight it suits my purposes perfectly.

And damn is it fun to drive.

That was a deal.

bthewalls

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #276 on: January 06, 2020, 04:14:30 PM »
Hardly related to the post at all but just to give a laugh, my last car cost £750 and lasted 7 years...I eventually sold it cause my daughters wouldnít get into it!

Baz

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #277 on: January 06, 2020, 10:59:31 PM »
It's taking me almost as much will power to not sell at $450 as it took to not sell at $180. Gotta stick to the investment thesis:

1) Is the future of energy and transportation battery electric and renewables?
2) Is Tesla the leader in EVs and battery tech?

I'll hold until the answer to either of those questions points towards no. The competition has yet to produce an EV that meets the price and specs of a 2013 Model S, let alone the 2019 variants. No other car company is building their own battery factory or a network of fast charging stations. There is no competition on the horizon (2 years out at least) and even then it doesn't matter, because a smaller percentage of a bigger pie is still more pie. Elon's goal is to push us towards a sustainable future and forcing other manufacturers to get serious about EVs is part of the plan.

aspiringnomad

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #278 on: January 06, 2020, 11:43:24 PM »
It's taking me almost as much will power to not sell at $450 as it took to not sell at $180. Gotta stick to the investment thesis:

1) Is the future of energy and transportation battery electric and renewables?
2) Is Tesla the leader in EVs and battery tech?

I'll hold until the answer to either of those questions points towards no. The competition has yet to produce an EV that meets the price and specs of a 2013 Model S, let alone the 2019 variants. No other car company is building their own battery factory or a network of fast charging stations. There is no competition on the horizon (2 years out at least) and even then it doesn't matter, because a smaller percentage of a bigger pie is still more pie. Elon's goal is to push us towards a sustainable future and forcing other manufacturers to get serious about EVs is part of the plan.

Your thesis addresses the two keys points and is enough alone IMO to justify holding the stock, but as a little cherry on top Tesla has also managed to design a customized, top-notch autonomous driving chip in-house and unlike other companies pursuing autonomy, it has already racked up billions of fleet miles to train the neural net on edge cases through the companyís Dojo.

While Iím skeptical of Elonís timeframes for FSD, I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that Lidar is the wrong path given that heís no stranger to it having personally helped design the Lidar system SpaceX uses to dock the Dragon to the ISS. Meanwhile, the competition is still working on OTA updates to their vehicles. I have no idea how autonomy will play out, but if Tesla does win that race as well, $450 per share will probably look quaint.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #279 on: January 07, 2020, 12:44:17 PM »
It's taking me almost as much will power to not sell at $450 as it took to not sell at $180. Gotta stick to the investment thesis:

1) Is the future of energy and transportation battery electric and renewables?
2) Is Tesla the leader in EVs and battery tech?

I'll hold until the answer to either of those questions points towards no. The competition has yet to produce an EV that meets the price and specs of a 2013 Model S, let alone the 2019 variants. No other car company is building their own battery factory or a network of fast charging stations. There is no competition on the horizon (2 years out at least) and even then it doesn't matter, because a smaller percentage of a bigger pie is still more pie. Elon's goal is to push us towards a sustainable future and forcing other manufacturers to get serious about EVs is part of the plan.

Your thesis addresses the two keys points and is enough alone IMO to justify holding the stock, but as a little cherry on top Tesla has also managed to design a customized, top-notch autonomous driving chip in-house and unlike other companies pursuing autonomy, it has already racked up billions of fleet miles to train the neural net on edge cases through the companyís Dojo.

While Iím skeptical of Elonís timeframes for FSD, I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that Lidar is the wrong path given that heís no stranger to it having personally helped design the Lidar system SpaceX uses to dock the Dragon to the ISS. Meanwhile, the competition is still working on OTA updates to their vehicles. I have no idea how autonomy will play out, but if Tesla does win that race as well, $450 per share will probably look quaint.

Your wording, "cherry on top" is how I view FSD in my investment thesis. I have no doubt Tesla is the leader in this technology. I think having the best driver assist available currently at less than full autonomy is already a clear advantage and value add for any potential buyer. The reason I don't include FSD in my primary thesis is that for Tesla to realize a significant profit from this technology, regulators and governments are going to have to first approve it's use. I believe the stats suggesting the number of accidents and fatalities will be significantly reduced by FSD enabled cars. Here's the issue I see. You can shout from the rooftop the safety statistics and that the thousands of lives will be saved, but there will still be fatal accidents under FSD and many of those accidents will look different than the ones human drivers typically have due to the way the hardware and software "read" the road. Some of these accidents will look downright suicidal on the part of the machine and will be hard to stomach by the families of the deceased. I fear society will not see the forest for the trees. FSD can save nameless thousands each year, but a handful of tragic, high-profile and seemingly easily preventable deaths will drive the public narrative and perhaps force regulators to go against good science.  Wouldn't be the first time.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #280 on: January 07, 2020, 12:45:38 PM »
On a more positive note, TSLA continues to climb and hit a new intra-day high of 471 a minute ago!

aspiringnomad

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #281 on: January 07, 2020, 01:36:44 PM »
It's taking me almost as much will power to not sell at $450 as it took to not sell at $180. Gotta stick to the investment thesis:

1) Is the future of energy and transportation battery electric and renewables?
2) Is Tesla the leader in EVs and battery tech?

I'll hold until the answer to either of those questions points towards no. The competition has yet to produce an EV that meets the price and specs of a 2013 Model S, let alone the 2019 variants. No other car company is building their own battery factory or a network of fast charging stations. There is no competition on the horizon (2 years out at least) and even then it doesn't matter, because a smaller percentage of a bigger pie is still more pie. Elon's goal is to push us towards a sustainable future and forcing other manufacturers to get serious about EVs is part of the plan.

Your thesis addresses the two keys points and is enough alone IMO to justify holding the stock, but as a little cherry on top Tesla has also managed to design a customized, top-notch autonomous driving chip in-house and unlike other companies pursuing autonomy, it has already racked up billions of fleet miles to train the neural net on edge cases through the companyís Dojo.

While Iím skeptical of Elonís timeframes for FSD, I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that Lidar is the wrong path given that heís no stranger to it having personally helped design the Lidar system SpaceX uses to dock the Dragon to the ISS. Meanwhile, the competition is still working on OTA updates to their vehicles. I have no idea how autonomy will play out, but if Tesla does win that race as well, $450 per share will probably look quaint.

Your wording, "cherry on top" is how I view FSD in my investment thesis. I have no doubt Tesla is the leader in this technology. I think having the best driver assist available currently at less than full autonomy is already a clear advantage and value add for any potential buyer. The reason I don't include FSD in my primary thesis is that for Tesla to realize a significant profit from this technology, regulators and governments are going to have to first approve it's use. I believe the stats suggesting the number of accidents and fatalities will be significantly reduced by FSD enabled cars. Here's the issue I see. You can shout from the rooftop the safety statistics and that the thousands of lives will be saved, but there will still be fatal accidents under FSD and many of those accidents will look different than the ones human drivers typically have due to the way the hardware and software "read" the road. Some of these accidents will look downright suicidal on the part of the machine and will be hard to stomach by the families of the deceased. I fear society will not see the forest for the trees. FSD can save nameless thousands each year, but a handful of tragic, high-profile and seemingly easily preventable deaths will drive the public narrative and perhaps force regulators to go against good science.  Wouldn't be the first time.

That's possible. The counterargument is that there are lots of jurisdictions and lots of regulatory bodies around the world, not to mention many just in the US alone. Some jurisdictions will decide to be early adopters of autonomy if for no other reason than to appear to be an innovative place. If/when the safety benefits are demonstrated with empirical data, pressure will mount on the laggard jurisdictions.

Speaking of which, I actually think certain jurisdictions may require FSD in certain use cases. For example, I imagine New Zealand might want to consider requiring tourists to use FSD when renting a car. It's a place with tons of tourism and relatively high traffic fatalities. Many locals are eager to get tourists out of the driver seat (so to speak) given that they're often unaccustomed to driving on the left side of the road, or on incredibly windy roads, are perhaps unsure of the rules pertaining to roundabouts, or maybe don't speak English (or Maori) so can't read the signage. It would seem relatively easy to push or force the car rental companies to make the switch, and if everyone expects it will save lives, who would fight back to defend the driving rights of tourists?

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #282 on: January 07, 2020, 01:59:18 PM »
It's taking me almost as much will power to not sell at $450 as it took to not sell at $180. Gotta stick to the investment thesis:

1) Is the future of energy and transportation battery electric and renewables?
2) Is Tesla the leader in EVs and battery tech?

I'll hold until the answer to either of those questions points towards no. The competition has yet to produce an EV that meets the price and specs of a 2013 Model S, let alone the 2019 variants. No other car company is building their own battery factory or a network of fast charging stations. There is no competition on the horizon (2 years out at least) and even then it doesn't matter, because a smaller percentage of a bigger pie is still more pie. Elon's goal is to push us towards a sustainable future and forcing other manufacturers to get serious about EVs is part of the plan.

Your thesis addresses the two keys points and is enough alone IMO to justify holding the stock, but as a little cherry on top Tesla has also managed to design a customized, top-notch autonomous driving chip in-house and unlike other companies pursuing autonomy, it has already racked up billions of fleet miles to train the neural net on edge cases through the companyís Dojo.

While Iím skeptical of Elonís timeframes for FSD, I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that Lidar is the wrong path given that heís no stranger to it having personally helped design the Lidar system SpaceX uses to dock the Dragon to the ISS. Meanwhile, the competition is still working on OTA updates to their vehicles. I have no idea how autonomy will play out, but if Tesla does win that race as well, $450 per share will probably look quaint.

Your wording, "cherry on top" is how I view FSD in my investment thesis. I have no doubt Tesla is the leader in this technology. I think having the best driver assist available currently at less than full autonomy is already a clear advantage and value add for any potential buyer. The reason I don't include FSD in my primary thesis is that for Tesla to realize a significant profit from this technology, regulators and governments are going to have to first approve it's use. I believe the stats suggesting the number of accidents and fatalities will be significantly reduced by FSD enabled cars. Here's the issue I see. You can shout from the rooftop the safety statistics and that the thousands of lives will be saved, but there will still be fatal accidents under FSD and many of those accidents will look different than the ones human drivers typically have due to the way the hardware and software "read" the road. Some of these accidents will look downright suicidal on the part of the machine and will be hard to stomach by the families of the deceased. I fear society will not see the forest for the trees. FSD can save nameless thousands each year, but a handful of tragic, high-profile and seemingly easily preventable deaths will drive the public narrative and perhaps force regulators to go against good science.  Wouldn't be the first time.

That's possible. The counterargument is that there are lots of jurisdictions and lots of regulatory bodies around the world, not to mention many just in the US alone. Some jurisdictions will decide to be early adopters of autonomy if for no other reason than to appear to be an innovative place. If/when the safety benefits are demonstrated with empirical data, pressure will mount on the laggard jurisdictions.

Speaking of which, I actually think certain jurisdictions may require FSD in certain use cases. For example, I imagine New Zealand might want to consider requiring tourists to use FSD when renting a car. It's a place with tons of tourism and relatively high traffic fatalities. Many locals are eager to get tourists out of the driver seat (so to speak) given that they're often unaccustomed to driving on the left side of the road, or on incredibly windy roads, are perhaps unsure of the rules pertaining to roundabouts, or maybe don't speak English (or Maori) so can't read the signage. It would seem relatively easy to push or force the car rental companies to make the switch, and if everyone expects it will save lives, who would fight back to defend the driving rights of tourists?

Good thoughts, and valid points. I'm sure insurance companies may play a role too at some point (i.e., cheaper rates for FSD enabled vehicles). I guess I'm reasonably optimistic in the long run, but like you said, no way this happens on Elon's timeframe given the perception war that's going to have to be waged and won jurisdiction by jurisdiction (see fight of dealership model).

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #283 on: January 08, 2020, 11:03:19 AM »
Might be time to close this thread. As the stock prices closes in on $500 (currently $491), I think its safe to say TSLA has turned out to be a good investment for any true long-term investor. I'll continue to hold based on my investment thesis above.

Is Tesla a good investment?  Yes

aspiringnomad

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #284 on: January 08, 2020, 12:06:22 PM »
Close the thread? Based on one quarter's worth of share movement, albeit quite dramatic? I expect a pullback in the share price soon on any bad news or perhaps just triggered by profit taking. In any event, although I'm bullish long-term, I really do appreciate hearing contrary points of view, especially from the mostly thoughtful and analytical people who make up this forum.

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #285 on: January 08, 2020, 12:16:05 PM »
If this crosses $500 today (currently $497) it'll jump another $20 without any friction.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #286 on: January 08, 2020, 12:33:35 PM »
Might be time to close this thread. As the stock prices closes in on $500 (currently $491), I think its safe to say TSLA has turned out to be a good investment for any true long-term investor. I'll continue to hold based on my investment thesis above.

Is Tesla a good investment?  Yes

Well, I mean based on that criteria, bitcoin was/is a good investment.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #287 on: January 08, 2020, 01:24:10 PM »
Close the thread? Based on one quarter's worth of share movement, albeit quite dramatic? I expect a pullback in the share price soon on any bad news or perhaps just triggered by profit taking. In any event, although I'm bullish long-term, I really do appreciate hearing contrary points of view, especially from the mostly thoughtful and analytical people who make up this forum.

Guess I should have used a smiley face when I posted that as it was meant tongue in cheek mostly. Obviously, ongoing discussion of the company and stock will be fun and productive. My real point is anyone who ever invested in this stock could close their position today and TSLA would have been a good investment regardless of when they entered. Thus, the title question is answered in the affirmative. As all stocks and companies eventually fall, the ongoing question is when might TSLA cease to be a good investment?

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #288 on: January 08, 2020, 01:29:24 PM »
Close the thread? Based on one quarter's worth of share movement, albeit quite dramatic? I expect a pullback in the share price soon on any bad news or perhaps just triggered by profit taking. In any event, although I'm bullish long-term, I really do appreciate hearing contrary points of view, especially from the mostly thoughtful and analytical people who make up this forum.

Guess I should have used a smiley face when I posted that as it was meant tongue in cheek mostly. Obviously, ongoing discussion of the company and stock will be fun and productive. My real point is anyone who ever invested in this stock could close their position today and TSLA would have been a good investment regardless of when they entered. Thus, the title question is answered in the affirmative. As all stocks and companies eventually fall, the ongoing question is when might TSLA cease to be a good investment?

Please stop with the insane bitcoin comparisons. It really shows a depth of understanding. Does bitcoin manufacture products, own physical infrastructure, have employees, own patents, conduct R&D, put out quarterly reports that contain earnings, capex, debt etc., Is bitcoin subject to regulatory oversight from the SEC?

Yeah, gambling on bitcoin is the same as investing in a disruptive, growth-minded manufacturing company with tangible assets.

Davnasty

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #289 on: January 08, 2020, 01:57:37 PM »
Close the thread? Based on one quarter's worth of share movement, albeit quite dramatic? I expect a pullback in the share price soon on any bad news or perhaps just triggered by profit taking. In any event, although I'm bullish long-term, I really do appreciate hearing contrary points of view, especially from the mostly thoughtful and analytical people who make up this forum.

Guess I should have used a smiley face when I posted that as it was meant tongue in cheek mostly. Obviously, ongoing discussion of the company and stock will be fun and productive. My real point is anyone who ever invested in this stock could close their position today and TSLA would have been a good investment regardless of when they entered. Thus, the title question is answered in the affirmative. As all stocks and companies eventually fall, the ongoing question is when might TSLA cease to be a good investment?

Please stop with the insane bitcoin comparisons. It really shows a depth of understanding. Does bitcoin manufacture products, own physical infrastructure, have employees, own patents, conduct R&D, put out quarterly reports that contain earnings, capex, debt etc., Is bitcoin subject to regulatory oversight from the SEC?

Yeah, gambling on bitcoin is the same as investing in a disruptive, growth-minded manufacturing company with tangible assets.

No one compared TSLA to bitcoin, only pointed out that the criteria for "good investment" should be more complex than asking if the price went up or not. Since you were being tongue in cheek I'm guessing you would actually agree with that.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #290 on: January 08, 2020, 02:20:25 PM »
Close the thread? Based on one quarter's worth of share movement, albeit quite dramatic? I expect a pullback in the share price soon on any bad news or perhaps just triggered by profit taking. In any event, although I'm bullish long-term, I really do appreciate hearing contrary points of view, especially from the mostly thoughtful and analytical people who make up this forum.

Guess I should have used a smiley face when I posted that as it was meant tongue in cheek mostly. Obviously, ongoing discussion of the company and stock will be fun and productive. My real point is anyone who ever invested in this stock could close their position today and TSLA would have been a good investment regardless of when they entered. Thus, the title question is answered in the affirmative. As all stocks and companies eventually fall, the ongoing question is when might TSLA cease to be a good investment?

Please stop with the insane bitcoin comparisons. It really shows a depth of understanding. Does bitcoin manufacture products, own physical infrastructure, have employees, own patents, conduct R&D, put out quarterly reports that contain earnings, capex, debt etc., Is bitcoin subject to regulatory oversight from the SEC?

Yeah, gambling on bitcoin is the same as investing in a disruptive, growth-minded manufacturing company with tangible assets.

No one compared TSLA to bitcoin, only pointed out that the criteria for "good investment" should be more complex than asking if the price went up or not. Since you were being tongue in cheek I'm guessing you would actually agree with that.

It was implied that Tesla is no better an investment than bitcoin simply because both went up in value. That of course is absurd for all the same reasons I listed above when comparing the two. I also laid out my TSLA investment thesis above and it has nothing to do with the movement of the stock price. If I cared about the movement of the stock price short term I would have sold at $178 six months ago. People who bring up bitcoin in the context of investment in Tesla are intentionally trying to paint Tesla as a risky gamble, when anyone with a little vision can recognize the change in the wind and a quality product when the see it.
« Last Edit: January 08, 2020, 02:22:51 PM by ColoradoTribe »

Davnasty

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #291 on: January 08, 2020, 02:28:57 PM »
It was implied that Tesla is no better an investment than bitcoin simply because both went up in value.

This was not implied, you're reading something that is not there.

Might be time to close this thread. As the stock prices closes in on $500 (currently $491), I think its safe to say TSLA has turned out to be a good investment for any true long-term investor. I'll continue to hold based on my investment thesis above.

Is Tesla a good investment?  Yes

Well, I mean based on that criteria, bitcoin was/is a good investment.

I bolded the criteria Roland was referencing

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #292 on: January 08, 2020, 03:21:18 PM »
It was implied that Tesla is no better an investment than bitcoin simply because both went up in value.

This was not implied, you're reading something that is not there.

Might be time to close this thread. As the stock prices closes in on $500 (currently $491), I think its safe to say TSLA has turned out to be a good investment for any true long-term investor. I'll continue to hold based on my investment thesis above.

Is Tesla a good investment?  Yes

Well, I mean based on that criteria, bitcoin was/is a good investment.

I bolded the criteria Roland was referencing

Come on now, Roland brought up bitcoin in a thread dedicated to Tesla. Why else bring up bitcoin if not to imply some correlation with the comment, "Well, I mean based on that criteria, bitcoin was/is a good investment." He didn't say by that criteria any stock that goes up is a good investment or by that criteria Facebook is a good investment. There was no other reason to use bitcoin to make his point other than to put the two together and imply commonality. It's not the first time bitcoin has been used in this thread to try and tar Tesla as highly risky.

aspiringnomad

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #293 on: January 08, 2020, 03:55:54 PM »
the ongoing question is when might TSLA cease to be a good investment?

When the investment thesis no longer holds, I suppose. Of course that will eventually become more of a gray area as the marketplace and competitive landscape shifts. Since I now only buy individual stocks when I have very strong convictions to do so, I'll try to only sell if that's the case as well. I plan to hold indefinitely or at least until 2028 when Elon's compensation plan sunsets.

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #294 on: January 08, 2020, 04:50:27 PM »
No educated/sensible consumer would buy a Leaf today - maybe get a cheap lease deal, but that's about it.

Well I would disagree as I just bought a 2012 Leaf SL.  I think it was a shrewd purchase.  The car has 11 out of 12 bars of battery health remaining, has 36k miles, and is in pristine condition.  The poor resale value of the car was to my advantage:  I got a steal at $5600.  My commute is 3 miles each way and on an average day I drive less than 15 miles.  With a trickle charge overnight it suits my purposes perfectly.

And damn is it fun to drive.

I should have qualified that as a new Leaf.

Davnasty

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #295 on: January 08, 2020, 07:53:54 PM »
It was implied that Tesla is no better an investment than bitcoin simply because both went up in value.

This was not implied, you're reading something that is not there.

Might be time to close this thread. As the stock prices closes in on $500 (currently $491), I think its safe to say TSLA has turned out to be a good investment for any true long-term investor. I'll continue to hold based on my investment thesis above.

Is Tesla a good investment?  Yes

Well, I mean based on that criteria, bitcoin was/is a good investment.

I bolded the criteria Roland was referencing

Come on now, Roland brought up bitcoin in a thread dedicated to Tesla. Why else bring up bitcoin if not to imply some correlation with the comment, "Well, I mean based on that criteria, bitcoin was/is a good investment." He didn't say by that criteria any stock that goes up is a good investment or by that criteria Facebook is a good investment. There was no other reason to use bitcoin to make his point other than to put the two together and imply commonality. It's not the first time bitcoin has been used in this thread to try and tar Tesla as highly risky.

Sure there is. If they had said "any stock" or "facebook" their point would have been less clear. Let's try it out:

"Well, I mean based on that criteria, facebook was/is a good investment."

Rather ambiguous, right?

Bitcoin was a good example because it's generally regarded on this forum as an obviously bad investment or perhaps something that doesn't even qualify as an investment. Until you responded I thought it was clear that they were simply suggesting that the criteria of "did the price go up" is inadequate in judging the quality of an investment.

If there was a deeper meaning, hopefully they'll chime in and let us know.

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #296 on: January 08, 2020, 09:07:04 PM »

Sure there is. If they had said "any stock" or "facebook" their point would have been less clear. Let's try it out:

"Well, I mean based on that criteria, facebook was/is a good investment."

Rather ambiguous, right?

Bitcoin was a good example because it's generally regarded on this forum as an obviously bad investment or perhaps something that doesn't even qualify as an investment. Until you responded I thought it was clear that they were simply suggesting that the criteria of "did the price go up" is inadequate in judging the quality of an investment.

If there was a deeper meaning, hopefully they'll chime in and let us know.

I like Tesla (I like SpaceX better) but it was not a good investment.

I mean it has paid off well, but so has bitcoin.  Neither was what I would consider a good investment though.

In this quote, Roland makes clear he thinks Tesla and Bitcoin are bad investments. So now we can move on.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #297 on: January 13, 2020, 08:07:58 AM »
Just punched through $500 for new ATH.

Telecaster

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #298 on: January 14, 2020, 11:06:41 AM »
Come on now, Roland brought up bitcoin in a thread dedicated to Tesla. Why else bring up bitcoin if not to imply some correlation with the comment, "Well, I mean based on that criteria, bitcoin was/is a good investment." He didn't say by that criteria any stock that goes up is a good investment or by that criteria Facebook is a good investment. There was no other reason to use bitcoin to make his point other than to put the two together and imply commonality. It's not the first time bitcoin has been used in this thread to try and tar Tesla as highly risky.

FWIW, I also interpenetrated your comment the same way. 

Regardless, I think Telsa is highly risky.  By any conventional metric, Tesla stock is very, very expensive.  Which is to say there is a lot of future growth already priced into the stock. 

Telsa as a stock reminds me of the dot com bubble.  There were plenty of good tech companies that survived the crash, but didn't see their stock prices recover for many years.  In some cases, it took a decade or more. 

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #299 on: January 14, 2020, 11:51:36 AM »
Come on now, Roland brought up bitcoin in a thread dedicated to Tesla. Why else bring up bitcoin if not to imply some correlation with the comment, "Well, I mean based on that criteria, bitcoin was/is a good investment." He didn't say by that criteria any stock that goes up is a good investment or by that criteria Facebook is a good investment. There was no other reason to use bitcoin to make his point other than to put the two together and imply commonality. It's not the first time bitcoin has been used in this thread to try and tar Tesla as highly risky.

FWIW, I also interpenetrated your comment the same way. 

Regardless, I think Telsa is highly risky.  By any conventional metric, Tesla stock is very, very expensive.  Which is to say there is a lot of future growth already priced into the stock. 

Telsa as a stock reminds me of the dot com bubble.  There were plenty of good tech companies that survived the crash, but didn't see their stock prices recover for many years.  In some cases, it took a decade or more.

Growth stocks are always valued at future growth or else it wouldn't be investing.

Could Tesla fall short of expectations and future value, sure.

I don't buy the comparison to the dot-com bubble. While part of Tesla's valuation is based on software, they are first and foremost and manufacturing company for transportation, energy storage, and renewable energy products. There is intrinsic value to their manufacturing facilities, patents, inventory, supercharger network, etc. None of which you had with the insane dot-com bubble.

Where is the risk in a company that is selling every battery pack and vehicle it makes at a healthy margin with no competition in sight?

New ATH today, currently $544/share.

Making money while helping us transition to a sustainable energy economy and creating well-paid manufacturing jobs.  Has there ever been a better win-win-win?