Author Topic: Is Tesla a good investment?  (Read 161377 times)

TomTX

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4781
  • Location: Texas
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #900 on: April 18, 2022, 07:55:51 PM »
from the link above:

Quote
We believe Tesla shares could offer a 10x return by 2030 Ė and potentially much more.*
ē *Note: Our 10x by 2030 valuation assumptions include Teslaís current business lines. This figure does not include Teslaís planned
Robotaxi network or real-world AI product revenue, each of which have profound upside implications to our financial models.

10X return in just 8 years.....seems....incredible!

8 years ago Tesla was about $45. Today it's about $1000, which is better than 20x in 8 years.

waltworks

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5304
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #901 on: April 18, 2022, 08:24:26 PM »
That would put Tesla at something like 4 times the market cap of the current second/third largest companies (Apple/Saudi Aramco)...and roughly an equal market cap to Apple, Aramco, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon combined.

I suppose I should root for that, since I own some Tesla via index funds. I think if that scenario even started to play out, the regulatory hammer would break up the company, though.

-W
« Last Edit: April 18, 2022, 08:27:20 PM by waltworks »

bacchi

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6199
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #902 on: April 19, 2022, 10:55:36 AM »
That would put Tesla at something like 4 times the market cap of the current second/third largest companies (Apple/Saudi Aramco)...and roughly an equal market cap to Apple, Aramco, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon combined.

I suppose I should root for that, since I own some Tesla via index funds. I think if that scenario even started to play out, the regulatory hammer would break up the company, though.

-W

It would probably also increase the calls for a wealth tax as Musk would throw his weight around more and further disregard the SEC and other governments.

waltworks

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5304
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #903 on: April 19, 2022, 12:28:41 PM »
I mean, all of those companies on the list (setting aside Aramco which isn't comparable) regularly draw fire from both sides of the political aisle for having too much size/influence. Some of them have already had significant antitrust actions taken against them (ie EU vs Alphabet). It's very hard for me to imagine a company 4 or 5 times the size of those giants not being immediately taken apart by antitrust authorities.

Tesla at $10 trillion would also be valued at ~50% of the entire US GDP, if we're throwing around crazy numbers.

-W
« Last Edit: April 19, 2022, 12:34:58 PM by waltworks »

Niceday

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 38
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #904 on: April 19, 2022, 12:52:01 PM »
What does any potential breakup have anything to do with achieving a higher valuation and therefore a higher return? A company broken up into 5 smaller ones would result in you owning all 5 companies.  See the Ma Bell breakup for an example. This is not to say I think Tesla will be 10X, nor am I saying it will be broken up.

talltexan

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5073
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #905 on: April 19, 2022, 01:45:03 PM »
I don't sense any apetite among Republicans to break up Tesla if it gets too big, especially not anymore.

soulpatchmike

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 157
  • Age: 47
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #906 on: April 19, 2022, 01:55:20 PM »
That would put Tesla at something like 4 times the market cap of the current second/third largest companies (Apple/Saudi Aramco)...and roughly an equal market cap to Apple, Aramco, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon combined.

I suppose I should root for that, since I own some Tesla via index funds. I think if that scenario even started to play out, the regulatory hammer would break up the company, though.

-W
Apple has nearly 6x its cap rate in the last 8 years(~2.75T) with no new product categories.  Microsoft has nearly 8x in the same time period to ~1.6T and Amazon has 11x cap rate in the past 8 years to ~1.7T.  It would be difficult to believe that Tesla would 10x in the next 8 years while these other massive companies had no change in cap rate.  If Apple doubles in the next 8 years, it is at nearly 6T.  With the new product growth and the existing product growth prospects of Tesla, I dont see why it couldn't get to 10T if the other companies are growing significantly without new product catagories.

I do agree, Tesla will very unlikely grow 10x to 10T if all other companies stop growing over the next 8 years.  With that said, I would wager more than one company will be at 10T market cap in the next 10 years and none of them will be broken up.  Inflation is in its infancy, I don't think anyone is prepared for what is to come in the next 10 years.



mistymoney

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1178
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #907 on: April 19, 2022, 06:30:00 PM »
That would put Tesla at something like 4 times the market cap of the current second/third largest companies (Apple/Saudi Aramco)...and roughly an equal market cap to Apple, Aramco, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon combined.

I suppose I should root for that, since I own some Tesla via index funds. I think if that scenario even started to play out, the regulatory hammer would break up the company, though.

-W
Apple has nearly 6x its cap rate in the last 8 years(~2.75T) with no new product categories.  Microsoft has nearly 8x in the same time period to ~1.6T and Amazon has 11x cap rate in the past 8 years to ~1.7T.  It would be difficult to believe that Tesla would 10x in the next 8 years while these other massive companies had no change in cap rate.  If Apple doubles in the next 8 years, it is at nearly 6T.  With the new product growth and the existing product growth prospects of Tesla, I dont see why it couldn't get to 10T if the other companies are growing significantly without new product catagories.

I do agree, Tesla will very unlikely grow 10x to 10T if all other companies stop growing over the next 8 years.  With that said, I would wager more than one company will be at 10T market cap in the next 10 years and none of them will be broken up. Inflation is in its infancy, I don't think anyone is prepared for what is to come in the next 10 years.

well, crap, what do you think is coming in the next 10 years?

talltexan

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5073
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #908 on: April 20, 2022, 06:37:25 AM »
I have 28 years, seven months left on a mortgage at 2.75%, so I think I'm prepared for inflation.

mistymoney

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1178
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #909 on: April 20, 2022, 09:07:31 AM »
well...maybe I went a little cray cray....

I bought 50 more tesla shares today in Roth, so I am at 150 shares. All in Roth.....

so I think that is enough for me, and if it does do half so well as some think I will be in great shape, and if it does not beat the market at all, I'll be ok, and if it tanks, it isn't enough to completely derail me.

oh wow - just saw that their earning call is tonight, lol! I guess well see which way is what.....

soulpatchmike

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 157
  • Age: 47
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #910 on: April 20, 2022, 09:31:20 AM »
That would put Tesla at something like 4 times the market cap of the current second/third largest companies (Apple/Saudi Aramco)...and roughly an equal market cap to Apple, Aramco, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon combined.

I suppose I should root for that, since I own some Tesla via index funds. I think if that scenario even started to play out, the regulatory hammer would break up the company, though.

-W
Apple has nearly 6x its cap rate in the last 8 years(~2.75T) with no new product categories.  Microsoft has nearly 8x in the same time period to ~1.6T and Amazon has 11x cap rate in the past 8 years to ~1.7T.  It would be difficult to believe that Tesla would 10x in the next 8 years while these other massive companies had no change in cap rate.  If Apple doubles in the next 8 years, it is at nearly 6T.  With the new product growth and the existing product growth prospects of Tesla, I dont see why it couldn't get to 10T if the other companies are growing significantly without new product catagories.

I do agree, Tesla will very unlikely grow 10x to 10T if all other companies stop growing over the next 8 years.  With that said, I would wager more than one company will be at 10T market cap in the next 10 years and none of them will be broken up. Inflation is in its infancy, I don't think anyone is prepared for what is to come in the next 10 years.

well, crap, what do you think is coming in the next 10 years?

If you think real estate and rent is expensive now, give it a few more years and let me know what you think.  The middle and lower classes are going to spend more and more of their income on vehicles and housing until they are crushed.  We might see a significant equity market crash(still not totally convinced of it), but I don't see it as turning into a multi-year bear market...yet.  In the next 10 years, there will be unbelievably scary things happening for poor people and unbelievably good things happening for people with wealth and assets.  I don't think government handouts are going to stop, pretty sure they will get bigger and more consistent.

Now more related to this thread...Historically, the automotive industry has led the way in factory and machinery automation.  The first industrial robot was used in an automotive plant back in the 60s.  Quality standards have been developed in the automotive industry that have bled over to any and all industries.  I know a CEO of a regional healthcare system that brought his management team to Japan for training on the Toyota production system(TPS) in order to apply the management concepts to their healthcare business.  It is not just about manufacturing best practices coming from the automotive industry, it is about management philosophy and practices driving the advancement and efficiency of all industries. 

With this said, Telsa has redefined the guidebook for best practices for manufacturing.  I don't think people understand the impact that a Tesla manufacturing system will have on all industries over the next 30 years. Managment of all industries for the past 30 years have been using the Toyota Production System(and variations of it) as a guide.  Management of all industries will be using the Tesla manufacturing system as a guide for the next 30 years.  The improvement in business operation, supply chain and manufacturing will have a cascading effect on all manufactured goods, driving down pricing and improving quality.

mistymoney

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1178
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #911 on: April 20, 2022, 09:55:04 AM »
That would put Tesla at something like 4 times the market cap of the current second/third largest companies (Apple/Saudi Aramco)...and roughly an equal market cap to Apple, Aramco, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon combined.

I suppose I should root for that, since I own some Tesla via index funds. I think if that scenario even started to play out, the regulatory hammer would break up the company, though.

-W
Apple has nearly 6x its cap rate in the last 8 years(~2.75T) with no new product categories.  Microsoft has nearly 8x in the same time period to ~1.6T and Amazon has 11x cap rate in the past 8 years to ~1.7T.  It would be difficult to believe that Tesla would 10x in the next 8 years while these other massive companies had no change in cap rate.  If Apple doubles in the next 8 years, it is at nearly 6T.  With the new product growth and the existing product growth prospects of Tesla, I dont see why it couldn't get to 10T if the other companies are growing significantly without new product catagories.

I do agree, Tesla will very unlikely grow 10x to 10T if all other companies stop growing over the next 8 years.  With that said, I would wager more than one company will be at 10T market cap in the next 10 years and none of them will be broken up. Inflation is in its infancy, I don't think anyone is prepared for what is to come in the next 10 years.

well, crap, what do you think is coming in the next 10 years?

If you think real estate and rent is expensive now, give it a few more years and let me know what you think.  The middle and lower classes are going to spend more and more of their income on vehicles and housing until they are crushed.  We might see a significant equity market crash(still not totally convinced of it), but I don't see it as turning into a multi-year bear market...yet.  In the next 10 years, there will be unbelievably scary things happening for poor people and unbelievably good things happening for people with wealth and assets.  I don't think government handouts are going to stop, pretty sure they will get bigger and more consistent.

Now more related to this thread...Historically, the automotive industry has led the way in factory and machinery automation.  The first industrial robot was used in an automotive plant back in the 60s.  Quality standards have been developed in the automotive industry that have bled over to any and all industries.  I know a CEO of a regional healthcare system that brought his management team to Japan for training on the Toyota production system(TPS) in order to apply the management concepts to their healthcare business.  It is not just about manufacturing best practices coming from the automotive industry, it is about management philosophy and practices driving the advancement and efficiency of all industries. 

With this said, Telsa has redefined the guidebook for best practices for manufacturing.  I don't think people understand the impact that a Tesla manufacturing system will have on all industries over the next 30 years. Managment of all industries for the past 30 years have been using the Toyota Production System(and variations of it) as a guide.  Management of all industries will be using the Tesla manufacturing system as a guide for the next 30 years.  The improvement in business operation, supply chain and manufacturing will have a cascading effect on all manufactured goods, driving down pricing and improving quality.

So maybe your original statement was not meant to be as dire as it sounded! If prices come down and quality goes up....that is a win for everryone.

One thing that really worries me quite a bit as we automate and AI the world is how those on the bottom are going to fare when there is not entry level jobs, when manual labor of all kinds mostly fades away. As a society, we haven't done a great job of making sure that tech advances benefit everyone and when jobs become few and far between, wondering how that might be handled.

That is one thing that keeps me slogging away. Make money while I still can!

talltexan

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5073
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #912 on: April 20, 2022, 10:27:17 AM »
That would put Tesla at something like 4 times the market cap of the current second/third largest companies (Apple/Saudi Aramco)...and roughly an equal market cap to Apple, Aramco, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon combined.

I suppose I should root for that, since I own some Tesla via index funds. I think if that scenario even started to play out, the regulatory hammer would break up the company, though.

-W
Apple has nearly 6x its cap rate in the last 8 years(~2.75T) with no new product categories.  Microsoft has nearly 8x in the same time period to ~1.6T and Amazon has 11x cap rate in the past 8 years to ~1.7T.  It would be difficult to believe that Tesla would 10x in the next 8 years while these other massive companies had no change in cap rate.  If Apple doubles in the next 8 years, it is at nearly 6T.  With the new product growth and the existing product growth prospects of Tesla, I dont see why it couldn't get to 10T if the other companies are growing significantly without new product catagories.

I do agree, Tesla will very unlikely grow 10x to 10T if all other companies stop growing over the next 8 years.  With that said, I would wager more than one company will be at 10T market cap in the next 10 years and none of them will be broken up. Inflation is in its infancy, I don't think anyone is prepared for what is to come in the next 10 years.

well, crap, what do you think is coming in the next 10 years?

If you think real estate and rent is expensive now, give it a few more years and let me know what you think.  The middle and lower classes are going to spend more and more of their income on vehicles and housing until they are crushed.  We might see a significant equity market crash(still not totally convinced of it), but I don't see it as turning into a multi-year bear market...yet.  In the next 10 years, there will be unbelievably scary things happening for poor people and unbelievably good things happening for people with wealth and assets.  I don't think government handouts are going to stop, pretty sure they will get bigger and more consistent.

Now more related to this thread...Historically, the automotive industry has led the way in factory and machinery automation.  The first industrial robot was used in an automotive plant back in the 60s.  Quality standards have been developed in the automotive industry that have bled over to any and all industries.  I know a CEO of a regional healthcare system that brought his management team to Japan for training on the Toyota production system(TPS) in order to apply the management concepts to their healthcare business.  It is not just about manufacturing best practices coming from the automotive industry, it is about management philosophy and practices driving the advancement and efficiency of all industries. 

With this said, Telsa has redefined the guidebook for best practices for manufacturing.  I don't think people understand the impact that a Tesla manufacturing system will have on all industries over the next 30 years. Managment of all industries for the past 30 years have been using the Toyota Production System(and variations of it) as a guide.  Management of all industries will be using the Tesla manufacturing system as a guide for the next 30 years.  The improvement in business operation, supply chain and manufacturing will have a cascading effect on all manufactured goods, driving down pricing and improving quality.

Is there evidence that this management premium showed up for Toyota in their share price?

soulpatchmike

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 157
  • Age: 47
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #913 on: April 20, 2022, 01:29:18 PM »
That would put Tesla at something like 4 times the market cap of the current second/third largest companies (Apple/Saudi Aramco)...and roughly an equal market cap to Apple, Aramco, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon combined.

I suppose I should root for that, since I own some Tesla via index funds. I think if that scenario even started to play out, the regulatory hammer would break up the company, though.

-W
Apple has nearly 6x its cap rate in the last 8 years(~2.75T) with no new product categories.  Microsoft has nearly 8x in the same time period to ~1.6T and Amazon has 11x cap rate in the past 8 years to ~1.7T.  It would be difficult to believe that Tesla would 10x in the next 8 years while these other massive companies had no change in cap rate.  If Apple doubles in the next 8 years, it is at nearly 6T.  With the new product growth and the existing product growth prospects of Tesla, I dont see why it couldn't get to 10T if the other companies are growing significantly without new product catagories.

I do agree, Tesla will very unlikely grow 10x to 10T if all other companies stop growing over the next 8 years.  With that said, I would wager more than one company will be at 10T market cap in the next 10 years and none of them will be broken up. Inflation is in its infancy, I don't think anyone is prepared for what is to come in the next 10 years.

well, crap, what do you think is coming in the next 10 years?

If you think real estate and rent is expensive now, give it a few more years and let me know what you think.  The middle and lower classes are going to spend more and more of their income on vehicles and housing until they are crushed.  We might see a significant equity market crash(still not totally convinced of it), but I don't see it as turning into a multi-year bear market...yet.  In the next 10 years, there will be unbelievably scary things happening for poor people and unbelievably good things happening for people with wealth and assets.  I don't think government handouts are going to stop, pretty sure they will get bigger and more consistent.

Now more related to this thread...Historically, the automotive industry has led the way in factory and machinery automation.  The first industrial robot was used in an automotive plant back in the 60s.  Quality standards have been developed in the automotive industry that have bled over to any and all industries.  I know a CEO of a regional healthcare system that brought his management team to Japan for training on the Toyota production system(TPS) in order to apply the management concepts to their healthcare business.  It is not just about manufacturing best practices coming from the automotive industry, it is about management philosophy and practices driving the advancement and efficiency of all industries. 

With this said, Telsa has redefined the guidebook for best practices for manufacturing.  I don't think people understand the impact that a Tesla manufacturing system will have on all industries over the next 30 years. Managment of all industries for the past 30 years have been using the Toyota Production System(and variations of it) as a guide.  Management of all industries will be using the Tesla manufacturing system as a guide for the next 30 years.  The improvement in business operation, supply chain and manufacturing will have a cascading effect on all manufactured goods, driving down pricing and improving quality.

Is there evidence that this management premium showed up for Toyota in their share price?
Toyota is a Japanese company.  I don't have access to their global financial statements from 1994-2004 when they started sharing TPS with the world including the US.
Toyota USA is a US public company primarily engaged in wholesale distribution of vehicles throughout the US.
With that said, if Toyota had been growing 50% per year from 1994-2004 the US share price would likely have grown at a different rate.  Instead, they grew 90% combined over the first 10 years of sharing TPS in the US.
1994 1.071M vehicles sold in US
1995 1.078M
1996 1.109M
1997 1.190M
1998 1.317M
1999 1.465M
2000 1.629M
2001 844k(changed fiscal year only 6 mo reported on the 10K I found)
2002 1.673M
2003 1.800M
2004 1.900M



talltexan

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5073
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #914 on: April 20, 2022, 02:20:32 PM »
Thanks for tracking these numbers down!

mistymoney

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1178
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #915 on: April 20, 2022, 03:13:50 PM »
shoot! when I saw it was down to 970's I wanted to pick up some more at the end of the day but was on a work call and missed the timing. My purchase price this morning was 1005, so far at after hours trading the price is 1044.

Will be interesting to see how if fares tomorrow. Previous earning call I think it shot up and then was back to baseline by end of next trading day....

talltexan

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5073
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #916 on: April 20, 2022, 03:17:11 PM »
It's still the company it was. I'm pondering the tail-risk of Elon borrowing against his shares to finance a Twitter acquisition.

lemonlyman

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 248
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #917 on: April 20, 2022, 05:22:46 PM »
30% gross margin before credits. Thatís bananas.

Rdy2Fire

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 439
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #918 on: April 20, 2022, 08:11:24 PM »
I will continue to say yes it's a good investment. Overvalued YES but go look at about 75% of the companies out there and many have a lot less potential I wish I would have bought a ton of TSLA

mistymoney

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1178
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #919 on: April 20, 2022, 10:33:35 PM »
speaking of Tesla other lines of business,

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2020/01/17/whoever-leads-in-artificial-intelligence-in-2030-will-rule-the-world-until-2100/

whoever leads in artificial intelligence in 2030 will rule the world until 2100.




ChpBstrd

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4223
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #920 on: April 21, 2022, 10:24:08 AM »
30% gross margin before credits. Thatís bananas.

What happens when EVs are everywhere, made by all manufacturers, the status-symbol value of driving a Tesla is the same as any other luxury brand, and the next tranche of customers is harder to convince than the early adopters? Will consumers continue to pay 30% of the price of a car for building it? Will investors continue to pay 200X earnings for the stock, when Ford could be had for 3.5X earnings and will likely be producing more EVs within a few years?

Meta and Netflix took sudden falls when investors realized the monopolistic growth story already happened, and margins would be a competitive slugfest from now on. TSLA has held up well so far, but the bottom line is we're in a very 2000-ish environment for growth stocks.

TomTX

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4781
  • Location: Texas
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #921 on: April 21, 2022, 10:46:17 AM »
What happens when EVs are everywhere, made by all manufacturers, the status-symbol value of driving a Tesla is the same as any other luxury brand, and the next tranche of customers is harder to convince than the early adopters? Will consumers continue to pay 30% of the price of a car for building it? Will investors continue to pay 200X earnings for the stock, when Ford could be had for 3.5X earnings and will likely be producing more EVs within a few years?

Meta and Netflix took sudden falls when investors realized the monopolistic growth story already happened, and margins would be a competitive slugfest from now on. TSLA has held up well so far, but the bottom line is we're in a very 2000-ish environment for growth stocks.

In 2021, TSLA wasn't much over 1% of global light vehicle production (by units) - but had a disproportionate amount of profit and growth. They are well positioned to take a large chunk of the heavy vehicle (Semi) market, and are already taking a large chunk of the stationary storage market. Their pace of innovation in driving down costs (Examples: structural battery pack, 4680 cells, megacasting) is significant.

We're a long way from fulfilling a monopolistic growth story.

waltworks

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5304
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #922 on: April 21, 2022, 12:27:27 PM »
Meta and Netflix took sudden falls when investors realized the monopolistic growth story already happened, and margins would be a competitive slugfest from now on. TSLA has held up well so far, but the bottom line is we're in a very 2000-ish environment for growth stocks.
We're a long way from fulfilling a monopolistic growth story.

I agree that Tesla has a long way to go in terms of market share and that they can and will get there.

I think ChpBstrd's point is that that status is already priced in at $1k/share. Tesla will have competition, and good competition, it's just a matter of time.

-W

Paper Chaser

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1240
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #923 on: April 21, 2022, 12:35:44 PM »
They are well positioned to take a large chunk of the heavy vehicle (Semi) market

Are they though? They aren't making any semis anytime soon. And when they do, they'll be limited to short range regional trips at best. Cummins, Daimler, Volvo and others are at similar places with their EV semi offerings, so Tesla is unlikely to have first mover advantage. And the old guard in the industry already have established parts, sales and service networks across the nation as well as relationships with conservative fleet buyers. All of which TSLA would have to develop from scratch.

MinorMiner

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 21
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #924 on: April 21, 2022, 02:06:42 PM »
speaking of Tesla other lines of business,

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2020/01/17/whoever-leads-in-artificial-intelligence-in-2030-will-rule-the-world-until-2100/

whoever leads in artificial intelligence in 2030 will rule the world until 2100.

This is the thing to be keeping your eye on. Electrification is great, but AI is the real elephant in the room. On Tesla's recent earning call they announced that they intend to begin mass production of robotaxis in 2024. Maybe their timeline is off a bit, however it is going to happen. My Model 3 drove me across Anchorage on it's own again today. FSD Beta just keeps getting better with every update. It does some maneuvers better than me now.

Watch "Two Minute Papers" on YouTube for a glance at where AI is now and where it is headed. Take note of the rapid rate of improvement.


lemonlyman

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 248
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #925 on: April 21, 2022, 02:28:17 PM »
30% gross margin before credits. Thatís bananas.

What happens when EVs are everywhere, made by all manufacturers, the status-symbol value of driving a Tesla is the same as any other luxury brand, and the next tranche of customers is harder to convince than the early adopters? Will consumers continue to pay 30% of the price of a car for building it? Will investors continue to pay 200X earnings for the stock, when Ford could be had for 3.5X earnings and will likely be producing more EVs within a few years?

Meta and Netflix took sudden falls when investors realized the monopolistic growth story already happened, and margins would be a competitive slugfest from now on. TSLA has held up well so far, but the bottom line is we're in a very 2000-ish environment for growth stocks.

Ford producing more EVs than Tesla in a few years? They've announced the goal of 2 million EVs in 2026. Tesla is going to produce 1.5 million this year and ramping 2 new factories. They'll exceed 2 million in 2023. The idea of what happens when EVs are everywhere is an interesting one, but we're at the bottom left of that S-curve still. I don't know what happens or what technology will be dominant. In the 2020s, Tesla has the manufacturing capacity to satisfy demand that others don't and an operating margin that equals Toyota's gross margin.

As for EPS, $15/share annually is the new standard for Tesla after this quarter. They're compressing EPS faster than critics can keep up with it. EPS of the past 4 quarters is 111X. 67X next 4 quarters and 40x in 2023. For a company growing faster than 50% annually with leading margins, those are cheap numbers.

TomTX

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4781
  • Location: Texas
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #926 on: April 21, 2022, 04:03:32 PM »
They are well positioned to take a large chunk of the heavy vehicle (Semi) market

Are they though? They aren't making any semis anytime soon. And when they do, they'll be limited to short range regional trips at best. Cummins, Daimler, Volvo and others are at similar places with their EV semi offerings, so Tesla is unlikely to have first mover advantage. And the old guard in the industry already have established parts, sales and service networks across the nation as well as relationships with conservative fleet buyers. All of which TSLA would have to develop from scratch.

Tesla already has plenty of orders for the Semi and has delivered a few to the largest truck fleet in the USA. Basically prototypes - expect actual production in 2023.

Tesla's advantage isn't in history of building diesel trucks. It's in a history of building and ramping production of EVs (something the legacy manufacturers keep screwing up - see battery issues with Leaf, Bolt, etc.) - it's not just about slapping an electric motor and battery pack in place of a diesel drivetrain.

Even more importantly: Battery (cell) supply. Tesla is FAR more aggressive at securing and developing a very robust cell supply, down to the raw material level. Buy cells from Panasonic? Samsung SDI? LG? CATL? - other manufacturers generally pick one. Tesla says "All of the above, plus we're going to roll our own too"

Paper Chaser

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1240
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #927 on: April 21, 2022, 06:01:10 PM »
They are well positioned to take a large chunk of the heavy vehicle (Semi) market

Are they though? They aren't making any semis anytime soon. And when they do, they'll be limited to short range regional trips at best. Cummins, Daimler, Volvo and others are at similar places with their EV semi offerings, so Tesla is unlikely to have first mover advantage. And the old guard in the industry already have established parts, sales and service networks across the nation as well as relationships with conservative fleet buyers. All of which TSLA would have to develop from scratch.

Tesla already has plenty of orders for the Semi and has delivered a few to the largest truck fleet in the USA. Basically prototypes - expect actual production in 2023.

Tesla's advantage isn't in history of building diesel trucks. It's in a history of building and ramping production of EVs (something the legacy manufacturers keep screwing up - see battery issues with Leaf, Bolt, etc.) - it's not just about slapping an electric motor and battery pack in place of a diesel drivetrain.

Even more importantly: Battery (cell) supply. Tesla is FAR more aggressive at securing and developing a very robust cell supply, down to the raw material level. Buy cells from Panasonic? Samsung SDI? LG? CATL? - other manufacturers generally pick one. Tesla says "All of the above, plus we're going to roll our own too"

All I'm saying, is that in the best case, where Tesla's truck actually comes to market and is widely available before the legacy makers offerings (which is questionable, since the legacy guys have been testing their prototypes  just as long as Tesla has), they still have to convince conservative fleet buyers to buy them and install chargers for them. And they're only useful for short haul stuff, which is a fraction of the overall market. Fleet buyers jobs depend on two things: Total Cost of Ownership and Uptime. If trucks aren't rolling down the road, they're not making their owner money. If it takes longer to get replacement parts for a Tesla EV semi than it does a Freightliner EV semi, then that changes the math and jobs are on the line. And it's not always stuff like powertrains that sideline trucks. If something like a deer strike or accident damages a headlight, the truck has to stay parked until the light is functional again. Right now, the legacy companies have parts sitting on shelves across the US. Tesla will need similar production capability of everything, not just batteries.

Having a bunch of battery suppliers might benefit Tesla's manufacturing, but it might be detrimental to customers if they can't get their battery serviced, repaired or replaced easily because the cells from that manufacturer aren't on hand. Or if battery performance, weight, longevity or charging time varies between cell makers.

The Semi has to be the right price up front, including infrastructure upgrades like MegaChargers. It has to have lower maintenance. It has to be down as little time as possible when things do break. It has to last as long as the legacy trucks do. And at that point, it's still just good for short haul stuff.
« Last Edit: April 21, 2022, 06:08:11 PM by Paper Chaser »

Niceday

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 38
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #928 on: April 21, 2022, 06:13:28 PM »
Again, PE is a bad stock indicator.  But just for kicks, the current PE of Tesla is now 113, not 200, after 2022 Q1:

Past 4 qtrs earnings = 1.45 + 1.86 + 2.38 + 3.22 = 8.91
PE = 1008 / 8.91 = 113

With the explosive earnings going forward, the PE will continue to shrink rapidly to under 100.  However, Tesla will unlikely have a PE of <50 in the near future as people will pay up for a consistent performer, pushing TSLA higher.

btw, all high performing growth stocks has a PE like that - negative at the beginning(building phase), then positive but a high PE(just starting to earn money), then PE drops(raking in a lot of money), finally PE stays low(the business is mature).

Regarding other OEMs producing EVs in volume to compete with Tesla, I've been hearing that since 2015. So far no one other than Tesla has volume production. Where are they going to get enough batteries? How are they going to make money when they are cannibalizing their ICE sales?  For people who love GM and F's low PEs and think that they will crush Tesla, I urge them to invest in F and GM. If F and GM can crush Tesla in the next 5 years, they sure will be worth a lot more than their current market caps.

TomTX

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4781
  • Location: Texas
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #929 on: April 21, 2022, 06:16:32 PM »
All I'm saying, is that in the best case, where Tesla's truck actually comes to market and is widely available before the legacy makers offerings (which is questionable, since the legacy guys have been testing their prototypes  just as long as Tesla has), they still have to convince conservative fleet buyers to buy them and install chargers for them.

Let's try this again. "Tesla already has plenty of orders for the Semi  and has delivered a few to the largest truck fleet in the USA."

They have plenty of other fleet orders from major fleet owners.

Niceday

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 38
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #930 on: April 21, 2022, 06:24:49 PM »
All I'm saying, is that in the best case, where Tesla's truck actually comes to market and is widely available before the legacy makers offerings (which is questionable, since the legacy guys have been testing their prototypes  just as long as Tesla has), they still have to convince conservative fleet buyers to buy them and install chargers for them.

Let's try this again. "Tesla already has plenty of orders for the Semi  and has delivered a few to the largest truck fleet in the USA."

They have plenty of other fleet orders from major fleet owners.

Yep, Pepsi and Walmart just to name a couple big guys.
The people at Tesla are not stupid. I'm pretty sure they've analyzed the market fit before they decide to produce the semi.

Paper Chaser

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1240
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #931 on: April 21, 2022, 06:39:55 PM »
All I'm saying, is that in the best case, where Tesla's truck actually comes to market and is widely available before the legacy makers offerings (which is questionable, since the legacy guys have been testing their prototypes  just as long as Tesla has), they still have to convince conservative fleet buyers to buy them and install chargers for them.

Let's try this again. "Tesla already has plenty of orders for the Semi  and has delivered a few to the largest truck fleet in the USA."

They have plenty of other fleet orders from major fleet owners.


I can't find a single story about a Tesla Semi in customer hands. Pepsi has some on order, but the delivery date keeps getting pushed back as far as I can tell. First they were to be delivered in Q4 of '21. Then by the end of Jan '22. But nothing since then has been released, and you can bet that they'd put out some press if they'd actually delivered some by now. Feel free to link some stories about Tesla Semis in customer hands if I'm mistaken. I'd genuinely be interested, but I can find nothing about them entering actual scale production, or being in customer hands.The most recent story that I can find is just a picture of 4 plain prototype trucks next to each other at a Tesla facility:

https://electrek.co/2022/01/26/tesla-semi-fleet-electric-trucks-unveiled/

It's extremely commonplace for large fleets to put in small orders for every new truck or powertrain combo that comes out so they can trial them in their specific duty cycle. Literally every year, the Walmarts and Schneiders of the world are ordering new experimental vehicles with prototype powertrains. That doesn't mean they're switching wholesale, or even that more orders are destined to come from that fleet again. Nikola had a bunch of orders for their truck too, and it never even existed. There's a very high likelihood that the fleets ordering Tesla Semis to test are also ordering EV semis from other makers too for head to head comparison:

https://electrek.co/2022/01/14/kenworth-says-electric-truck-orders-have-tripled-the-past-three-months-quoting-customers-in-44-states/

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/10/08/volvo-trucks-receives-order-for-100-electric-semis/

https://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/story/money/2021/10/25/battery-electric-trucks-schneider-among-first-deploy-large-fleet-electric-semitrucks/5769441001/

I'm not saying they won't sell any Tesla Semis. There's obviously interest in the Tesla Semi, just as there's interest in all of the EV trucks. They might get a slice of the pie, but it remains to be seen how significant that slice will actually be. I'm obviously skeptical because Tesla has more headwinds in that market than they did in personal EVs. They've got more competition right out of the gate, and they'll have much more demanding service requirements than they did with rich early adopters that could tolerate hiccups.
« Last Edit: April 21, 2022, 06:56:14 PM by Paper Chaser »

theoverlook

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 478
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #932 on: April 25, 2022, 08:40:42 AM »
People love to claim Tesla isn't going to manage to make X product, so then when they do the claim gets modified to they won't be able to make as many as they say, then whey they do the claim gets modified to they won't make money at it, then they do so it's ... etc etc etc.

The model S was announced in 2008. They didn't even sell the first one until 2012. They took for-freakin'-ever to make enough to be a blip on the radar, then all of a sudden they're everywhere. I have no doubt the same will be true for the semi. I am long past betting against Tesla. They deliver, just not on the optimistic timelines they like to claim.

@Paper Chaser : The semi is not limited to short haul, I have no idea why you would claim that. A 500 mile range model is just about filling a long haul driver's legal hours. One charging break would make it way beyond - no truck driver can legally drive over 1000 miles in a day. A legal limit is about 660 miles (11 hours x 60mph average). Chargers will roll out once the trucks start being made. Just like the supercharger network didn't exist until the cars did, they aren't going to unveil a bunch of megachargers for trucks that don't exist yet. And trucks have much more defined routes than cars, it's super simple to figure out where to put the chargers to make them the most effective.

ChpBstrd

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4223
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #933 on: April 25, 2022, 10:24:10 AM »
It all depends on the prices for Lithium and Nickel. Have they peaked?

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium


https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/nickel


Exponential growth in EV's, especially heavy EV's like the Hummer and Semis, would have to be matched by exponential growth in mines and recycling technologies. I'm just not sure the less glamorous worlds of mining and materials recycling change that quickly. If Musk actually gave a damn about the planet he'd be hiring people to work on these technologies with his $43B instead of making the world safe for seditious tweets.

I'm the last one to say "see a trend, it will go on forever" but if materials supplies don't keep up with EV manufacturers' growth plans, then those growth plans simply cannot happen.

TomTX

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4781
  • Location: Texas
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #934 on: April 25, 2022, 10:38:40 AM »
1) Tesla is not going to be paying spot price for the vast majority (if not all) of their raw materials. They set up long term contracts.

2) I suggest you watch Battery Day from ~1.5 years ago and pay attention to how Tesla is developing a technique to extract lithium from clay.

lemonlyman

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 248
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #935 on: April 25, 2022, 02:06:00 PM »
If Musk actually gave a damn about the planet he'd be hiring people to work on these technologies with his $43B instead of making the world safe for seditious tweets.

Are you blind to what he's built already? What he risked in putting his entire self-made fortune into a rocket and a electric car company? Name someone who's done more for the planet.

PDXTabs

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4593
  • Age: 39
  • Location: Vancouver, WA, USA
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #936 on: April 25, 2022, 04:23:41 PM »
If Musk actually gave a damn about the planet he'd be hiring people to work on these technologies with his $43B instead of making the world safe for seditious tweets.

Are you blind to what he's built already? What he risked in putting his entire self-made fortune into a rocket and a electric car company? Name someone who's done more for the planet.

How about Richard Trevithick, inventor of the first successful locomotive?

I do appreciate SpaceX and especially Starlink but I don't really have anything good to say about Musk in general or Tesla in specific.

EDITed to add: are we discussing Tesla or Musk? I'd invest in Starlink, not Tesla.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2022, 06:34:55 PM by PDXTabs »

Paper Chaser

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1240
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #937 on: April 25, 2022, 06:10:05 PM »
@Paper Chaser : The semi is not limited to short haul, I have no idea why you would claim that. A 500 mile range model is just about filling a long haul driver's legal hours. One charging break would make it way beyond - no truck driver can legally drive over 1000 miles in a day. A legal limit is about 660 miles (11 hours x 60mph average). Chargers will roll out once the trucks start being made. Just like the supercharger network didn't exist until the cars did, they aren't going to unveil a bunch of megachargers for trucks that don't exist yet. And trucks have much more defined routes than cars, it's super simple to figure out where to put the chargers to make them the most effective.

So 500 miles of range (assuming Tesla isn't optimistic about the range claim and there's perfect charger placement exactly at the end of the semi's range) is about 25% less daily miles driven than a similar ICE truck. That's a massive difference in efficiency in a business where 1% fuel economy gains are a pretty big deal. Then the truck has to charge on a very specific Mega Charger for unknown hours at an unknown cost? Even if all of those assumptions hold up, none of the renders that I've seen show a sleeper cab, so where does the driver get to rest if they're not returning to a central depot?



The body looks larger than it is. The back couple of feet are just aero fairings:


They can probably add a sleeper without too much radical engineering, but that only adds weight to an already heavy cab, which reduces the freight efficiency. This isn't insurmountable stuff on a long enough timeline, but all of these things represent hurdles for the Tesla Semi to gain wide adoption, or to become viable as long haul trucks. It's not just about battery tech, or charging networks. There are legitimate issues with batteries for duty cycles involving heavy work for long periods of time. All of the legacy truck makers have been working on battery trucks for the same amount of time as Tesla. But they're also hedging bets with other technologies as well like Hydrogen fuel cells, hydrogen combustion in ICEs, alternative fuels, etc because they are likely to be better for certain applications than batteries. Or at least represent an easier intermediate step. We've lived in a world with multiple fuels for different tasks for the last 100 years or so, and I don't think that general theme is likely to change. The future of work isn't going to have a single solution for fuel/propulsion. What works for short haul in CA may fail miserably for long haul in cold climates and vice versa. What works for city buses might not work for dump trucks. "Add more batteries" isn't always the answer, especially as we're struggling to make enough batteries for the few BEVs we already have. Is it better to allocate 700-1000kwh of battery capacity resources to a single semi, or divide it among 2-3 electric city buses, or 7-10 personal BEVs, or 50 PHEVs, or 500 regular hybrids?

And to be clear, a lot of these issues are present in all of the BEV semi trucks, not just the Tesla. But Tesla specifically has some obstacles to overcome that the other truck makers really don't (like supporting infrastructure, relationships and in depth knowledge of their customers' needs, etc). Stuff like that doesn't get talked about or thought about very much outside of the commercial sector, but it absolutely matters to the people writing checks for new semis.
Again, there's interest in the Tesla offering just like all of the others. I'm just skeptical that their slice of the pie is going to be very large on a national scale. Especially outside of short haul work.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2022, 06:55:57 PM by Paper Chaser »

StashingAway

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 748
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #938 on: April 26, 2022, 10:11:36 AM »
If Musk actually gave a damn about the planet he'd be hiring people to work on these technologies with his $43B instead of making the world safe for seditious tweets.

Are you blind to what he's built already? What he risked in putting his entire self-made fortune into a rocket and a electric car company? Name someone who's done more for the planet.

I think the jury's still out on whether or not those well spent resources. Tesla compared to ICE? Sure, that's better. What if we had spent the same human intelligence and resources developing better cities that needed fewer cars? That's an opportunity cost that never gets measured against.


bacchi

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6199
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #939 on: April 26, 2022, 10:54:43 AM »
If Musk isn't selling and causing today's downward slide, his number of shares on margin just got a lot larger.

mistymoney

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1178
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #940 on: April 27, 2022, 07:02:34 PM »
If Musk actually gave a damn about the planet he'd be hiring people to work on these technologies with his $43B instead of making the world safe for seditious tweets.

Are you blind to what he's built already? What he risked in putting his entire self-made fortune into a rocket and a electric car company? Name someone who's done more for the planet.

I think the jury's still out on whether or not those well spent resources. Tesla compared to ICE? Sure, that's better. What if we had spent the same human intelligence and resources developing better cities that needed fewer cars? That's an opportunity cost that never gets measured against.

and theres no cure for cancer either!!......fucking musk!

ChpBstrd

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4223
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #941 on: April 28, 2022, 09:28:24 AM »
If Musk actually gave a damn about the planet he'd be hiring people to work on these technologies with his $43B instead of making the world safe for seditious tweets.

Are you blind to what he's built already? What he risked in putting his entire self-made fortune into a rocket and a electric car company? Name someone who's done more for the planet.

I think the jury's still out on whether or not those well spent resources. Tesla compared to ICE? Sure, that's better. What if we had spent the same human intelligence and resources developing better cities that needed fewer cars? That's an opportunity cost that never gets measured against.

and theres no cure for cancer either!!......fucking musk!
I'm fascinated by the level of admiration people have for certain billionaires (who just so happen to run social media personal branding operations - but I'm sure that doesn't make a difference).

Musk's actions are 100% compatible with any of the following motives, and yet we are all certain we know his personality based on what he allows us to see about him on our screens.

Possible Musk motives:
1) Make as much money as possible.
2) Become the most powerful person on the planet.
3) Become the most historically significant person of the early 21st century.

Not all of these possible motives align with your interests, even if you do want a Model 3.

talltexan

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5073
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #942 on: April 28, 2022, 09:36:33 AM »
Having those motives doesn't rule out other possibilities, such as:

  • Execute on a classist world view in which those with sufficient wealth or influence can ignore the rule of law
  • Approach Government and the legal system through an "extraction" strategy in which subsidies are freely and blatantly accepted, while regulators are defanged.

mistymoney

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1178
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #943 on: April 28, 2022, 09:37:44 PM »
If Musk actually gave a damn about the planet he'd be hiring people to work on these technologies with his $43B instead of making the world safe for seditious tweets.

Are you blind to what he's built already? What he risked in putting his entire self-made fortune into a rocket and a electric car company? Name someone who's done more for the planet.

I think the jury's still out on whether or not those well spent resources. Tesla compared to ICE? Sure, that's better. What if we had spent the same human intelligence and resources developing better cities that needed fewer cars? That's an opportunity cost that never gets measured against.

and theres no cure for cancer either!!......fucking musk!
I'm fascinated by the level of admiration people have for certain billionaires (who just so happen to run social media personal branding operations - but I'm sure that doesn't make a difference).

Musk's actions are 100% compatible with any of the following motives, and yet we are all certain we know his personality based on what he allows us to see about him on our screens.

Possible Musk motives:
1) Make as much money as possible.
2) Become the most powerful person on the planet.
3) Become the most historically significant person of the early 21st century.

Not all of these possible motives align with your interests, even if you do want a Model 3.

why quote me and say this? I do not care for musk at all.

The post I quoted is just bananas, which is why I responded with bananas.


talltexan

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5073
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #944 on: May 03, 2022, 06:09:10 AM »
I suppose trying to infer Musk's motives, we have only to look at his record of achievements, and his public statements.

mistymoney

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1178
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #945 on: May 03, 2022, 11:38:21 AM »
I think it's hard to reconcile his words and achievements.

talltexan

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5073
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #946 on: May 03, 2022, 12:37:10 PM »
I actually think that historical titans of business like Thomas Edison or Andrew Carnegie--or even more recent ones like Walt Disney--benefitted from not being on Twitter, where we could have viewed their ignorant opinions about a variety of topics largely unrelated to the companies and legacies they built.

mistymoney

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1178
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #947 on: May 03, 2022, 01:17:54 PM »
I agree. But I'm not sure those earlier titans didn't deserve the censure they eluded.

I really love what tesla stands for. changing the game on electric vehicles, the telsa roof, etc. At least what I thought it stood for. But musk is making that difficult, and there is a younger generation of future telsa owners that he is alienating.

I was so excited to plan my tesla car purchase. now, I'm not sure I want that musk baggage in my driveway.

Archipelago

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 567
  • Location: U.S.
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #948 on: May 03, 2022, 03:00:40 PM »
Anyone here with money invested in Tesla have any concern over the extent to which Tesla's success is seemingly tied to Elon Musk and his public image?

Asking as someone invested in TSLA via index funds.

mistymoney

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1178
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #949 on: May 03, 2022, 03:20:39 PM »
Anyone here with money invested in Tesla have any concern over the extent to which Tesla's success is seemingly tied to Elon Musk and his public image?

Asking as someone invested in TSLA via index funds.

please see my previous comment....

how much it may impact things, idk! No company is a single person, but he doesn't make it easy to remember that!