Author Topic: Is Tesla a good investment?  (Read 410318 times)

lemonlyman

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 424
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1200 on: November 22, 2022, 10:20:23 AM »
I'm personally rooting for Twitter to collapse, forcing Musk to sell a ton of Tesla stock (maybe even getting him booted as CEO?), and dropping the price a bunch.

I think at this point Musk walking off into the sunset would be a good thing for both the company and humanity.

Then I'd actually consider buying an individual stock for the first time ever.

-W

Haha, possible I guess. Twitter with the #RIPTwitter went into wild hysteria over the weekend about it shutting down imminently. The site is still working. It's only been a few weeks since the change. It's just a crazy focus of the media right now. Every move. So that hysteria is usually way over blown.

What's more likely is that Twitter continues to run on <1,000 employees instead of 7,500. It's pretty standard practice in business turnaround for shock cutting. It's hard to cut too much. Corporate Turnaround Artistry is a great book on the practice. What's really interesting is the possibility of Twitter features actually improving over the next few months and years with DAU growth. That brings a lot of op ex efficiencies of other major software corporations under scrutiny like Meta and Google.

As a Tesla investor, it's been a very shitty year with Twitter. As CEO, Musk has not represented the interests of shareholders of Tesla. If he wasn't CEO, fine, but that's the job. The Tesla board is MIA over it so best case scenario is Twitter begins to shape into the product he's envisioning and he hires another CEO to run it.

waltworks

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5676
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1201 on: November 22, 2022, 12:42:28 PM »
Oh, it's not twitter *running* or not that is the issue. It's twitter setting all of Elon's money on fire as advertisers flee and people refuse to pay for subscriptions. That process could take years and years, of course. Or not happen at all.

-W

lemonlyman

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 424
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1202 on: November 22, 2022, 06:22:00 PM »
Yeah, Iíd bet on not at all. Twitter isnít really that big. No real danger of exhausting Elons wealth. $1.2 billion in total spend per quarter before losing ~6,500 employees and other unknown cost cutting. Advertisers are being cautious but if the DAU grows and he hires another CEO for the daily after the turnaround is done, theyíll come back. They want eyeballs.

We know Elon understands online payments from PayPal. That will definitely be a product. We assume based on comments they will start a TikTok/YouTube//Reels product. So thereís lots of potential in the business but he could burn it I guess. If it crashes and burns it wonít be material to his wealth. Tesla and Spacex are growing too fast.

mistymoney

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2459
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1203 on: November 22, 2022, 07:42:44 PM »
I'm personally rooting for Twitter to collapse, forcing Musk to sell a ton of Tesla stock (maybe even getting him booted as CEO?), and dropping the price a bunch.

I think at this point Musk walking off into the sunset would be a good thing for both the company and humanity.

Then I'd actually consider buying an individual stock for the first time ever.

-W

He does have a visionary dimension that has been valuable/invaluable to tesla, but his dislikeability at this point is damaging the brand. I don't know where the best interests of tesla lie at this point. I guess I'm just along for the ride and see where it takes us.

I still plan for tesla to be my next vehicle purchase. But not sure when that will be.


waltworks

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5676
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1204 on: November 23, 2022, 10:38:55 AM »
If they do a less fancy/expensive EV I'd consider it. But that Bolt (we already have a Leaf) is just too much of a good deal to even consider Tesla for us right now.

-W

JAYSLOL

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2175
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1205 on: November 23, 2022, 11:23:55 AM »
If they do a less fancy/expensive EV I'd consider it. But that Bolt (we already have a Leaf) is just too much of a good deal to even consider Tesla for us right now.

-W

This, all I want is the electric equivalent of a 1980s Corolla, but somehow asking for too little is asking too much.  Instead, everything electric that is coming out is closer to the equivalent of a Mercedes S Class that was used as a getaway vehicle after stealing all the iPads from a Best Buy. 

mistymoney

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2459
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1206 on: November 23, 2022, 04:00:21 PM »
I think the iphone is a good analogy. It was way too pricy and luxury and full of nonessential features for most people to consider.....until it became standard.

mistymoney

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2459
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1207 on: November 23, 2022, 04:01:01 PM »
I was eyeballing those values yesterday - but got distracted! Up nearly 8% today....

EchoStache

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 836
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1208 on: November 23, 2022, 04:15:23 PM »
I don't have any "fun money" invested outside of index funds/bonds, etc.  If I ever do, I think it would have to be Tesla.  I have a hard time seeing how they don't grow into the biggest and most profitable company we've ever seen.  Their lead over other companies seems insurmountable for the foreseeable future.  Of course, I do own TSLA in my index funds.  But I can't see how adding some additional shares could possibly be a bad idea over a 5-10 year time horizon.

In fact, I was considering buying a few shares today but sort of lousy timing considering todays surge haha.

ColoradoTribe

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 394
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1209 on: November 23, 2022, 10:02:48 PM »
I don't have any "fun money" invested outside of index funds/bonds, etc.  If I ever do, I think it would have to be Tesla.  I have a hard time seeing how they don't grow into the biggest and most profitable company we've ever seen.  Their lead over other companies seems insurmountable for the foreseeable future.  Of course, I do own TSLA in my index funds.  But I can't see how adding some additional shares could possibly be a bad idea over a 5-10 year time horizon.

In fact, I was considering buying a few shares today but sort of lousy timing considering todays surge haha.

I think the TSLA stock price the last few weeks offered the best value proposition in the companies history since it started mass production. I added some shares on Monday. None of the noise matters in the long run and that includes Twitter. Tesla is growing 40-50% per year and has a forward looking PE in the neighborhood or 25-30. Tesla will exit 2022 with a run rate >2 million vehicles a year and industry leading margins. And all that doesnít even count the semi truck (first deliveries Dec 1) or the Cybertruck (deliveries start in 23Q1). The spring is being wound tight.

lemonlyman

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 424
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1210 on: November 24, 2022, 09:58:25 AM »
FSD Beta is now open to anyone who has paid for it in NA. So likely ~$1 billion of deferred revenue recognized this quarter. Big day.

I'm only really getting struggles now in big parking lots (V11 is supposed to improve. Parking lots still use an old software.) and streets with tight turns into steep declines. IMO, it would work really well in most areas of the US that are flat right now. Pittsburgh is the kind of city that would really put it through its paces. But where I live, it pretty much takes me everywhere now. Reduces cognitive load the same way autopilot does on the highway. I can see ahead where it'll likely struggle and focus accordingly.

Estimated take rate for FSD is around 10-20%. I would assume 20% on V11 for sure  because itís parking lot to parking lot. 500,000 units in NA sold x .20 x $15k is $1.5 billion in bottom line increase in 2023. Itís hard to know how much of the total was always being deferred due to price increases. But $1.5B+ we can model well now to the bottom line in 2023 is awesome! 

*I mistakenly said every quarter. 500k units sold or more in NA in 2023. Probably more but Iíll go with that.
« Last Edit: November 24, 2022, 10:26:58 AM by lemonlyman »

EchoStache

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 836
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1211 on: November 24, 2022, 10:03:05 AM »
I just bought 10 shares. :).  It's my only investment outside of my normal AA of index funds/bonds/cash.  I may consider increasing my position to around 5% of investable assets over time.

lemonlyman

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 424
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1212 on: November 24, 2022, 10:33:27 AM »

mistymoney

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2459
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1213 on: November 24, 2022, 12:40:00 PM »
The spring is being wound tight.

Agreed

Can someone translate this for me? Do you mean the momentum is growing under the surface and will pop soon?


GilesMM

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1641
  • Location: PNW
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1214 on: November 24, 2022, 12:42:12 PM »

I think the TSLA stock price the last few weeks offered the best value proposition in the companies history since it started mass production. I added some shares on Monday. None of the noise matters in the long run and that includes Twitter. Tesla is growing 40-50% per year and has a forward looking PE in the neighborhood or 25-30. Tesla will exit 2022 with a run rate >2 million vehicles a year and industry leading margins. And all that doesnít even count the semi truck (first deliveries Dec 1) or the Cybertruck (deliveries start in 23Q1). The spring is being wound tight.

Are you loading up like crazy?  How much?

bacchi

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7176
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1215 on: November 24, 2022, 03:39:43 PM »
Tesla will exit 2022 with a run rate >2 million vehicles a year and industry leading margins. And all that doesnít even count the semi truck (first deliveries Dec 1) or the Cybertruck (deliveries start in 23Q1). The spring is being wound tight.

Given the declining situation in China, I don't see how Tesla can improve deliveries from 114k/month to 166k/quarter. The semi truck deliveries will be negligible this quarter but, if the semi impresses Pepsi, the order book will explode.

With Tesla's history of overpromising, though, I expect the semi delivery will be pushed to Q1.

ColoradoTribe

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 394
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1216 on: November 25, 2022, 11:56:12 PM »
Tesla will exit 2022 with a run rate >2 million vehicles a year and industry leading margins. And all that doesnít even count the semi truck (first deliveries Dec 1) or the Cybertruck (deliveries start in 23Q1). The spring is being wound tight.

Given the declining situation in China, I don't see how Tesla can improve deliveries from 114k/month to 166k/quarter. The semi truck deliveries will be negligible this quarter but, if the semi impresses Pepsi, the order book will explode.

With Tesla's history of overpromising, though, I expect the semi delivery will be pushed to Q1.

There is no actual evidence of declining sales in China. On the contrary sales continue to set records. Itís true wait times have shortened in China, but thatís to be expected when you rapidly increase production from Shanghai. Also, wait times fluctuate depending on wether Tesla is deploying Shanghai production in-country or exporting, which happens in waves causing wait times to fluctuate.

Iím not saying thereís no chance demand is softening in China, but Iíve seen no actual proof of reduced deliveries, only fear-mongering based on a small price reduction and reduced wait times.

Since Shanghai makes cars for export as well as for the domestic market, there is room to increase imports to SE Asia, Europe and Australia from Shanghai to take up any slack. In fact Shanghai is meant to be an export hub because it's cheaper to manufacturer in China and the vehicles fetch a higher price in other markets. Exporting production actually increases Teslaís margins and profit.

Given Teslaís automotive margin is around 30% they can afford to offer a small price reduction to increase demand in order to meet increased production volume in China.

Tesla will sell every vehicle they make in 2023 and total production will come in at 2 million vehicles or more. Folks have been claiming Tesla has hit a demand cliff for years now and have been proven horribly wrong for years. Someday, Tesla demand will peak, its inevitable, but that wonít happen as long as as ICE market share is shifting to EV market share. There will be regional fluctuations based on economic and regulatory factors, but worldwide demand for Tesla is going to increase for the foreseeable future.

As for the Semi, once fleet managers run the numbers on the Tesla semi and see what the cost to operate per mile is theyíre going to be clamoring for the Tesla semi.  Reduced fuel and maintenance cost, combined with drivetrain longevity are going to disrupt the commercial trucking industry even more than EVs are disrupting personal transportation. The truck drivers are going to move the instant torque and acceleration, particularly on inclines. The only reason Tesla has not prioritized the Semi is that the number of battery cells needed for a Semi can be more profitably be deployed in passenger cars. As Tesla battery supply increases the Semi is no longer battery cell constrained. This is a huge market that Tesla will move into as cell supply increases. Thatís the limiting factor.

ColoradoTribe

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 394
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1217 on: November 26, 2022, 12:10:50 AM »

I think the TSLA stock price the last few weeks offered the best value proposition in the companies history since it started mass production. I added some shares on Monday. None of the noise matters in the long run and that includes Twitter. Tesla is growing 40-50% per year and has a forward looking PE in the neighborhood or 25-30. Tesla will exit 2022 with a run rate >2 million vehicles a year and industry leading margins. And all that doesnít even count the semi truck (first deliveries Dec 1) or the Cybertruck (deliveries start in 23Q1). The spring is being wound tight.

Are you loading up like crazy?  How much?

I bought my first shares in 2013 and have only added over time since. So, Iím already loaded up. In the last few months, Iíve bought around 50 additional shares. While my confidence in the future of the company has never been higher, there is a limit to how much Iím willing to bet on one company.

I will also say that I FiREíd in 2017. And, prior to Tesla, I had never invested more than a few thousand dollars in any single company. I only invested money I could afford to lose. After Tesla, my next biggest holding is VTI (excluding real estate). I have chosen not to rebalance in the face of substantial gains because selling winners too early is just as bad as panic selling when a stock goes down IMO.

I expect I will start to unwind my position sometime in the next 2-5 years, but will sell-off slowly over time as Tesla matures from a growth company into a value company.

bacchi

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7176
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1218 on: November 26, 2022, 07:53:32 PM »
Tesla will exit 2022 with a run rate >2 million vehicles a year and industry leading margins. And all that doesnít even count the semi truck (first deliveries Dec 1) or the Cybertruck (deliveries start in 23Q1). The spring is being wound tight.

Given the declining situation in China, I don't see how Tesla can improve deliveries from 114k/month to 166k/quarter. The semi truck deliveries will be negligible this quarter but, if the semi impresses Pepsi, the order book will explode.

With Tesla's history of overpromising, though, I expect the semi delivery will be pushed to Q1.

There is no actual evidence of declining sales in China.

Bloomberg notes declining deliveries from the Shanghai plant. I mean, Beijing is once again a ghost town. How could sales be increasing with China's bizarre covid strategy?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-03/tesla-s-china-deliveries-fall-in-october-from-a-record-high

Quote from: bloomberg
Tesla Inc. China deliveries fell in October after reaching a record high in September, underscoring the automakerís recent price cut to boost sales. 

Elon Muskís electric car pioneer shipped 71,704 cars from its Shanghai plant, according to a statement from Chinaís Passenger Car Association published Friday. Thatís up from a year ago, but down from a record high of 83,135 reached in September.
(bolded)


Quote
Folks have been claiming Tesla has hit a demand cliff for years now and have been proven horribly wrong for years. Someday, Tesla demand will peak, its inevitable, but that wonít happen as long as as ICE market share is shifting to EV market share. There will be regional fluctuations based on economic and regulatory factors, but worldwide demand for Tesla is going to increase for the foreseeable future.

Well, of course sales will increase as the ICE market decreases. What matters, though, is whether Tesla can continue to meet 40-50% yoy growth when facing increased competition and decreased (or fulfilled) demand for luxury and premium cars.

lemonlyman

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 424
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1219 on: November 27, 2022, 08:47:02 AM »
I canít tell whatís going on in China. Wish it was easier. Company guidance says thereís no demand problem there and production is accelerating. Theyíll export what they canít sell domestically anyway. Definitely something to watch.

Semi deliveries event is Dec 1. Invitations are already in the hands of many investors so itís happening. Looking forward to it. Hoping to see a production cybertruck as well since the line is in tooling and hiring for production is in full swing.
« Last Edit: November 27, 2022, 10:43:44 AM by lemonlyman »

nick663

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 429
  • Location: midwest
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1220 on: November 27, 2022, 10:17:09 AM »

I think the TSLA stock price the last few weeks offered the best value proposition in the companies history since it started mass production. I added some shares on Monday. None of the noise matters in the long run and that includes Twitter. Tesla is growing 40-50% per year and has a forward looking PE in the neighborhood or 25-30. Tesla will exit 2022 with a run rate >2 million vehicles a year and industry leading margins. And all that doesnít even count the semi truck (first deliveries Dec 1) or the Cybertruck (deliveries start in 23Q1). The spring is being wound tight.
I thought they said during the latest earning call that Cybertruck production starts mid-year 2023 with production volume at end of 2023?

lemonlyman

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 424
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1221 on: November 27, 2022, 10:46:33 AM »

I think the TSLA stock price the last few weeks offered the best value proposition in the companies history since it started mass production. I added some shares on Monday. None of the noise matters in the long run and that includes Twitter. Tesla is growing 40-50% per year and has a forward looking PE in the neighborhood or 25-30. Tesla will exit 2022 with a run rate >2 million vehicles a year and industry leading margins. And all that doesnít even count the semi truck (first deliveries Dec 1) or the Cybertruck (deliveries start in 23Q1). The spring is being wound tight.
I thought they said during the latest earning call that Cybertruck production starts mid-year 2023 with production volume at end of 2023?

Yeah, thatís company guidance. Investors are optimistic thereís some sandbagging involved with that since the Gigapress for it shipped from Idra and Tesla is hiring many people for the production line. Either way is fine long term.

ColoradoTribe

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 394
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1222 on: November 27, 2022, 02:49:40 PM »
Tesla will exit 2022 with a run rate >2 million vehicles a year and industry leading margins. And all that doesn’t even count the semi truck (first deliveries Dec 1) or the Cybertruck (deliveries start in 23Q1). The spring is being wound tight.

Given the declining situation in China, I don't see how Tesla can improve deliveries from 114k/month to 166k/quarter. The semi truck deliveries will be negligible this quarter but, if the semi impresses Pepsi, the order book will explode.

With Tesla's history of overpromising, though, I expect the semi delivery will be pushed to Q1.

There is no actual evidence of declining sales in China.

Bloomberg notes declining deliveries from the Shanghai plant. I mean, Beijing is once again a ghost town. How could sales be increasing with China's bizarre covid strategy?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-03/tesla-s-china-deliveries-fall-in-october-from-a-record-high

Quote from: bloomberg
Tesla Inc. China deliveries fell in October after reaching a record high in September, underscoring the automaker’s recent price cut to boost sales.

Elon Musk’s electric car pioneer shipped 71,704 cars from its Shanghai plant, according to a statement from China’s Passenger Car Association published Friday. That’s up from a year ago, but down from a record high of 83,135 reached in September.
(bolded)


Quote
Folks have been claiming Tesla has hit a demand cliff for years now and have been proven horribly wrong for years. Someday, Tesla demand will peak, its inevitable, but that won’t happen as long as as ICE market share is shifting to EV market share. There will be regional fluctuations based on economic and regulatory factors, but worldwide demand for Tesla is going to increase for the foreseeable future.

Well, of course sales will increase as the ICE market decreases. What matters, though, is whether Tesla can continue to meet 40-50% yoy growth when facing increased competition and decreased (or fulfilled) demand for luxury and premium cars.

Well, you’ve been spot on about Tesla over the years and up to this point :)

I guess if you keep predicting THIS is the year Tesla fails to grow 40-50% you’ll eventually be right.  You’ll also be about as useful as a broken clock.

Not that you’ll listen, but you can’t gauge Chia demand by looking at month to month sales. Some months Tesla ships China production abroad and some months they focus on the domestic market. I’ll believe there is a China demand problem when China sales go down QoQ. That would be discouraging, but the only thing that really matters is global sales. Any temporary stagnation in China market can be taken up by Europe, NA, Australia, SE Asia, etc. Tesla can also expand to new markets, such as India and South America. Tesla can also start marketing or reduce prices, so that they’re only making unheard of 25% margins instead of unheard of 30% margins. Not to mention that US buyers will once again qualify for $7500 federal credit starting Jan 1. Tesla will be globally supply constrained for several years to come. The “competition” can’t even get out of the starting gates.
« Last Edit: November 27, 2022, 04:01:27 PM by ColoradoTribe »

mistymoney

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2459
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1223 on: November 27, 2022, 03:32:02 PM »
Tesla will exit 2022 with a run rate >2 million vehicles a year and industry leading margins. And all that doesnít even count the semi truck (first deliveries Dec 1) or the Cybertruck (deliveries start in 23Q1). The spring is being wound tight.

Given the declining situation in China, I don't see how Tesla can improve deliveries from 114k/month to 166k/quarter. The semi truck deliveries will be negligible this quarter but, if the semi impresses Pepsi, the order book will explode.

With Tesla's history of overpromising, though, I expect the semi delivery will be pushed to Q1.

There is no actual evidence of declining sales in China.

Bloomberg notes declining deliveries from the Shanghai plant. I mean, Beijing is once again a ghost town. How could sales be increasing with China's bizarre covid strategy?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-03/tesla-s-china-deliveries-fall-in-october-from-a-record-high

Quote from: bloomberg
Tesla Inc. China deliveries fell in October after reaching a record high in September, underscoring the automakerís recent price cut to boost sales.

Elon Muskís electric car pioneer shipped 71,704 cars from its Shanghai plant, according to a statement from Chinaís Passenger Car Association published Friday. Thatís up from a year ago, but down from a record high of 83,135 reached in September.
(bolded)


Quote
Folks have been claiming Tesla has hit a demand cliff for years now and have been proven horribly wrong for years. Someday, Tesla demand will peak, its inevitable, but that wonít happen as long as as ICE market share is shifting to EV market share. There will be regional fluctuations based on economic and regulatory factors, but worldwide demand for Tesla is going to increase for the foreseeable future.

Well, of course sales will increase as the ICE market decreases. What matters, though, is whether Tesla can continue to meet 40-50% yoy growth when facing increased competition and decreased (or fulfilled) demand for luxury and premium cars.

Well, youíve been spot on about Tesla over the years and up to this point :)

I guess if you keep predicting THIS is the year Tesla fails to grow 40-50% youíll eventually be right.  Youíll also be about as useful as a broken clock.

Not that youíll listen, but you canít gauge Chia demand by looking at month to month sales. Some months Tesla ships China production abroad and some months they focus on the domestic market. Iíll believe there is a China demand problem with China sales go down QoQ. That would be discouraging, but the only thing that really matters is global sales and any temporary stagnation in China market can be taken up by Europe, NA, Australia, SE Asia, etc. Tesla can also expand to new markets, such as India and South America. Tesla can also start marketing or reduce prices, so that theyíre only making unheard of 25% margins instead of unheard of 30% margins. Not to mention that US buyers will once again qualify for $7500 federal credit starting Jan 1. Tesla will be globally supply constrained for several years to come. The ďcompetitionĒ canít even get out of the starting gates.


chia demand is usually high over the christmas holiday.

cha cha cha chia!

bacchi

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7176
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1224 on: November 27, 2022, 05:43:46 PM »
Not that youíll listen, but you canít gauge Chia demand by looking at month to month sales. Some months Tesla ships China production abroad and some months they focus on the domestic market. Iíll believe there is a China demand problem when China sales go down QoQ. That would be discouraging, but the only thing that really matters is global sales. Any temporary stagnation in China market can be taken up by Europe, NA, Australia, SE Asia, etc. Tesla can also expand to new markets, such as India and South America. Tesla can also start marketing or reduce prices, so that theyíre only making unheard of 25% margins instead of unheard of 30% margins. Not to mention that US buyers will once again qualify for $7500 federal credit starting Jan 1. Tesla will be globally supply constrained for several years to come.

It stands to reason that Tesla, like all the auto manufacturers, will get caught in the probable recession. Anyone who thinks otherwise might be blinded by the magical Cybertrucks in the sky. ;-)

Quote from: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-shanghai-adds-inventory-highest-rate-ever-october-brokerage-data-2022-11-09
In October, Tesla produced 87,706 Model 3s and Model Ys in Shanghai but delivered 71,704 vehicles, leaving a gap of 16,002 China-made cars in inventory, according to data from China Merchants Bank International (CMBI).

That was the biggest gap between production and sales since Tesla opened its Shanghai Gigfactory in late 2019, CMBI data showed.
(bolded)


As for India, Tesla pulled out of the Indian market in May. India is a protectionist market that's hard to crack. Ask Walmart.

Quote from: https://electrek.co/2022/05/13/tesla-abandons-plans-enter-indian-market
Tesla has officially abandoned its effort to enter the Indian market and even started to reassign local employees. The automaker couldnít get the government to change its mind on high import tariffs for foreign electric vehicles.

Quote
The ďcompetitionĒ canít even get out of the starting gates.

The main competition for Tesla is BYD, who has started to sell in India and is currently outselling them in China, Tesla's #2 market. Remember the Tesla-Hertz deal? BYD inked a similar deal with Sixt in Europe.

BYD eventually overtaking Tesla production numbers shouldn't be a surprise either. Annual car sales in China dwarf any other country and populism will win the day there. They made it a national mission to make a decent ball point pen; there's no way they'll concede the EV title to a US company.

bacchi

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7176
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1225 on: November 27, 2022, 06:11:41 PM »
Semi deliveries event is Dec 1. Invitations are already in the hands of many investors so itís happening. Looking forward to it. Hoping to see a production cybertruck as well since the line is in tooling and hiring for production is in full swing.

Yeah, something is going on. A class 8 semi would be awesome but my guess would be a class 4-6, a la Renault's EV trucks for Coke. The problem with a class 8 semi is charging, making it really only useful for overnight trips between cities because of the immense power needed in such a short amount of time. Getting the needed electricity to a truck stop in the middle of Nevada isn't as easy as installing level 3 chargers for a sedan.

lemonlyman

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 424
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1226 on: November 27, 2022, 08:01:58 PM »
Iíd suggest reading up on the Semi some. Itís been known to be class 8 for some time. Frito Lay and Pepsi have already had mega chargers installed at locations that add 400 miles in 30 min. 500 mile range fully loaded at the EV truck limit of 81,000 pounds.

bacchi

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7176
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1227 on: November 27, 2022, 08:19:55 PM »
Iíd suggest reading up on the Semi some. Itís been known to be class 8 for some time. Frito Lay and Pepsi have already had mega chargers installed at locations that add 400 miles in 30 min. 500 mile range fully loaded at the EV truck limit of 81,000 pounds.

Level 4 driving is coming in 2017 2019 2021 2022 2023 too. :) I'll believe a class 8 semi when I see it (which might well be this week.)

Are there any other mega chargers other than at Pepsi's Modesto and Indio plants (and Tesla)? If not, that kinda proves my point. It's an important first step but it's a far cry from mega charging a dozen trucks at a Flying J's in Beaver, UT for the LA-Denver haul.

lemonlyman

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 424
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1228 on: November 27, 2022, 08:50:01 PM »
Level 4 driving is coming in 2017 2019 2021 2022 2023 too. :) I'll believe a class 8 semi when I see it (which might well be this week.)

Haha, fair.

I donít know the answer to long haul. Definitely not usable for that in 2023. The Semi truck line will have a max capacity of 50,000 units year so probably not even an issue until production is ramped. The network will just build out overtime like the Supercharger network. I imagine in 2030 itíll be a pretty robust system.

Engineering explained did a good video on the Semi. At todays energy prices the Tesla Semi would save over $500,000 during the lifetime of the vehicle compared to diesel. Thatís a deflationary product. The other benefit is, unlike diesel, electricity infrastructure can be purchased to reduced grid cost.

For FSD, I use BETA daily. Level 4 in 2023 is highly likely. I say certainty personally. I donít have to intervene very often and improvements have been accelerating. Experiencing the past 8 months of improvement has been striking and now that over 300,000 cars have it, the data flywheel for neural net training will just go faster and faster. 10.69.3.1 is amazing. Version 11 is a big enhancement in December. Bright future here much quicker than most anticipate.
« Last Edit: November 27, 2022, 09:06:00 PM by lemonlyman »

nick663

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 429
  • Location: midwest
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1229 on: November 27, 2022, 09:14:44 PM »

I think the TSLA stock price the last few weeks offered the best value proposition in the companies history since it started mass production. I added some shares on Monday. None of the noise matters in the long run and that includes Twitter. Tesla is growing 40-50% per year and has a forward looking PE in the neighborhood or 25-30. Tesla will exit 2022 with a run rate >2 million vehicles a year and industry leading margins. And all that doesnít even count the semi truck (first deliveries Dec 1) or the Cybertruck (deliveries start in 23Q1). The spring is being wound tight.
I thought they said during the latest earning call that Cybertruck production starts mid-year 2023 with production volume at end of 2023?

Yeah, thatís company guidance. Investors are optimistic thereís some sandbagging involved with that since the Gigapress for it shipped from Idra and Tesla is hiring many people for the production line. Either way is fine long term.
Investors are thinking Tesla is being conservative in their timing estimate?  Tesla is kind of known for being the opposite... haha

ColoradoTribe

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 394
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1230 on: November 27, 2022, 11:11:49 PM »
Not that you’ll listen, but you can’t gauge Chia demand by looking at month to month sales. Some months Tesla ships China production abroad and some months they focus on the domestic market. I’ll believe there is a China demand problem when China sales go down QoQ. That would be discouraging, but the only thing that really matters is global sales. Any temporary stagnation in China market can be taken up by Europe, NA, Australia, SE Asia, etc. Tesla can also expand to new markets, such as India and South America. Tesla can also start marketing or reduce prices, so that they’re only making unheard of 25% margins instead of unheard of 30% margins. Not to mention that US buyers will once again qualify for $7500 federal credit starting Jan 1. Tesla will be globally supply constrained for several years to come.

It stands to reason that Tesla, like all the auto manufacturers, will get caught in the probable recession. Anyone who thinks otherwise might be blinded by the magical Cybertrucks in the sky. ;-)

Quote from: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-shanghai-adds-inventory-highest-rate-ever-october-brokerage-data-2022-11-09
In October, Tesla produced 87,706 Model 3s and Model Ys in Shanghai but delivered 71,704 vehicles, leaving a gap of 16,002 China-made cars in inventory, according to data from China Merchants Bank International (CMBI).

That was the biggest gap between production and sales since Tesla opened its Shanghai Gigfactory in late 2019, CMBI data showed.
(bolded)


As for India, Tesla pulled out of the Indian market in May. India is a protectionist market that's hard to crack. Ask Walmart.

Quote from: https://electrek.co/2022/05/13/tesla-abandons-plans-enter-indian-market
Tesla has officially abandoned its effort to enter the Indian market and even started to reassign local employees. The automaker couldn’t get the government to change its mind on high import tariffs for foreign electric vehicles.

Quote
The “competition” can’t even get out of the starting gates.

The main competition for Tesla is BYD, who has started to sell in India and is currently outselling them in China, Tesla's #2 market. Remember the Tesla-Hertz deal? BYD inked a similar deal with Sixt in Europe.

BYD eventually overtaking Tesla production numbers shouldn't be a surprise either. Annual car sales in China dwarf any other country and populism will win the day there. They made it a national mission to make a decent ball point pen; there's no way they'll concede the EV title to a US company.

You keep bringing up BYD like BYD and Tesla are in some sort of winner take all competition to the death. BYD is the only other pure EV startup managing to turn a profit, though a modest profit compared to Tesla. Every legacy auto is selling their EVs at a loss and will continue to do so until they reach mass production (annually) in the six or seven figure range.

BYD is not producing vehicles that even compete in the same market segments as Tesla. Regardless, the rapidly growing EV pie is more than big enough for BYD and Tesla to both be wildly successful and profitable going forward. BYD and Tesla aren't competing with each other as much as BYD and Tesla are competing against legacy ICE and winning.

Funny that you think Tesla is going to be hurt by a recession that may already be underway considering Tesla weathered the global supply change issues (chip shortage, etc.) better than any legacy competitors and are growing production when Ford, GM, etc. all have contracting sales numbers. A recession will negatively impact all car producers, but investors will find Tesla’s relative strength very appealing. A nearly debt-free Tesla that is self funding their growth with FCF and cash reserves and that has no need to borrow, is far better positioned in the event of recession than the legacy auto companies that have constricting sales, billions in debt, and shrinking revenue. How in the world are they going to fund a transition to EV during a recession?
« Last Edit: November 28, 2022, 03:20:55 PM by ColoradoTribe »

ColoradoTribe

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 394
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1231 on: November 27, 2022, 11:19:31 PM »
Iíd suggest reading up on the Semi some. Itís been known to be class 8 for some time. Frito Lay and Pepsi have already had mega chargers installed at locations that add 400 miles in 30 min. 500 mile range fully loaded at the EV truck limit of 81,000 pounds.

Level 4 driving is coming in 2017 2019 2021 2022 2023 too. :) I'll believe a class 8 semi when I see it (which might well be this week.)

Are there any other mega chargers other than at Pepsi's Modesto and Indio plants (and Tesla)? If not, that kinda proves my point. It's an important first step but it's a far cry from mega charging a dozen trucks at a Flying J's in Beaver, UT for the LA-Denver haul.

Bacchi will believe Tesla can..

build a compelling EV
mass produce an EV
build out a nationwide network of superchargers
open a factory in China in one yearís time from ground breaking
turn a profit
turn a profit in consecutive quarters
turn a profit for a whole year
grow 40-50% yoy
make their own batteries
sell vehicles with 28% margin
make a class 8 semi

...when he sees it.


bacchi

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7176
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1232 on: November 28, 2022, 08:18:54 AM »
You keep bringing up BYD like BYD and Tesla are in some sort of winner take all competition to the death.

I keep bringing up BYD because you keep claiming that Tesla has no serious competition. They do.

Quote
BYD is the only other pure EV startup managing to turn a profit, though a modest profit compared to Tesla. Every legacy auto is selling their EVs at a loss and will continue to do so until they reach mass production (annually) in the six or seven figure range.

BYD is not a pure EV startup. It is a legacy car manufacturer and switched over to only EVs this year.

Quote
Regardless, the rapidly growing EV pie is more than big enough for BYD and Tesla to both be wildly successful and profitable going forward.

No one has denied this.
« Last Edit: November 28, 2022, 08:41:17 AM by bacchi »

ColoradoTribe

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 394
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1233 on: November 28, 2022, 08:55:08 AM »
You keep bringing up BYD like BYD and Tesla are in some sort of winner take all competition to the death.

I keep bringing up BYD because you keep claiming that Tesla has no serious competition. They do.

Quote
BYD is the only other pure EV startup managing to turn a profit, though a modest profit compared to Tesla. Every legacy auto is selling their EVs at a loss and will continue to do so until they reach mass production (annually) in the six or seven figure range.

BYD is not a pure EV startup. It is a legacy car manufacturer and switched over to only EVs this year.

Quote
Regardless, the rapidly growing EV pie is more than big enough for BYD and Tesla to both be wildly successful and profitable going forward.

No one has denied this.

And, you keep saying BYD is Teslaís competition when they donít ďcompeteĒ in the same vehicle classes or many of the same markets. In reality, BYD and Tesla are not competing against each other, they are competing against legacy ICE and both are winning. Very few people, a minuscule fraction of the EV market are actually choosing between a Tesla vehicle and a BYD vehicle. So, how is BYD ďserious competitionĒ as you put it?

And if you haven't denied that Tesla and BYD can both be wildly successful, why do you consistently point to BYD as the competition that will keep Tesla from growing 40-50% YOY going forward. Thatís where this all started. Seems to me youíre either walking this back or talking out both sides of your mouth.

In related news Australia passes new EV incentives and Tesla announces plans to enter Thailand market.

bacchi

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7176
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1234 on: November 28, 2022, 09:32:32 AM »
You keep bringing up BYD like BYD and Tesla are in some sort of winner take all competition to the death.

I keep bringing up BYD because you keep claiming that Tesla has no serious competition. They do.

Quote
BYD is the only other pure EV startup managing to turn a profit, though a modest profit compared to Tesla. Every legacy auto is selling their EVs at a loss and will continue to do so until they reach mass production (annually) in the six or seven figure range.

BYD is not a pure EV startup. It is a legacy car manufacturer and switched over to only EVs this year.

Quote
Regardless, the rapidly growing EV pie is more than big enough for BYD and Tesla to both be wildly successful and profitable going forward.

No one has denied this.

And, you keep saying BYD is Teslaís competition when they donít ďcompeteĒ in the same vehicle classes or many of the same markets. In reality, BYD and Tesla are not competing against each other, they are competing against legacy ICE and both are winning. Very few people, a minuscule fraction of the EV market are actually choosing between a Tesla vehicle and a BYD vehicle. So, how is BYD ďserious competitionĒ as you put it?

They both manufacture and sell EV cars in the world's largest car market. BYD isn't selling the Hongguang; it's selling what we consider to be normal looking cars like the Seal. See https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/cf/BYD_Seal_image01.jpg.

Will Europe buy the Chinese made Seal or Dolphin? Shrug. But BYD is going to try and sell them there starting next year.

Quote
And if you haven't denied that Tesla and BYD can both be wildly successful, why do you consistently point to BYD as the competition that will keep Tesla from growing 40-50% YOY going forward. Thatís where this all started. Seems to me youíre either walking this back or talking out both sides of your mouth.

The universe can't expand forever.


I am confused about your position though. You mention "same vehicle class" above. The Nissan Leaf or Chevy Bolt certainly aren't in the same class as even a Model 3. Are they competition against Tesla cars? Or only cars like the Audi Q4 etron and BMW i4?

EchoStache

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 836
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1235 on: November 28, 2022, 09:52:04 AM »
I bought another 10 shares of TSLA this morning $179.50  I now own 20 shares, where I will likely stay for a bit.

soulpatchmike

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 188
  • Age: 48
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1236 on: November 28, 2022, 09:59:35 AM »
BEV companies are not competing against each other for BEV customers, they are competing against ICE mfgs for new BEV owners. 

BYD is competing for traditional ICE compact coupes and sedans which are low margin, low cost vehicles.

Tesla is competing for traditional ICE intermediate and full size sedan and SUVs that are high margin and premium pricing.  They don't compete against each other.

The pool of new BEV customers is growing faster than people can count.  Any EV mfg that is not selling on a waiting list without advertising should do themselves a favor and just shut down, they are done.  Global BEV market share is still less than 10% of all vehicle sales.  All BEV mfg can grow BEV sales at 50% per year for a number of years before reaching a saturation point.  The catch is that traditional mfg are not necessarily growing top or bottom line at 50% per year because they are just swapping ICE owners with BEV owners.

bacchi

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7176
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1237 on: November 28, 2022, 11:22:15 AM »
BEV companies are not competing against each other for BEV customers, they are competing against ICE mfgs for new BEV owners. 

BYD is competing for traditional ICE compact coupes and sedans which are low margin, low cost vehicles.

Tesla is competing for traditional ICE intermediate and full size sedan and SUVs that are high margin and premium pricing.  They don't compete against each other.

The pool of new BEV customers is growing faster than people can count.  Any EV mfg that is not selling on a waiting list without advertising should do themselves a favor and just shut down, they are done.  Global BEV market share is still less than 10% of all vehicle sales.  All BEV mfg can grow BEV sales at 50% per year for a number of years before reaching a saturation point.  The catch is that traditional mfg are not necessarily growing top or bottom line at 50% per year because they are just swapping ICE owners with BEV owners.

I'm confused now. Please help.

1) Tesla is not competing against a legacy and now pure EV company because most of BYD's cars are not semi/luxury cars.

2) Tesla is competing against legacy ICE car companies that are (mostly) still selling ICE cars.

It doesn't seem like Ford, GM, Stellantis, Toyota, Honda, and Nissan meet both rules. They have some semi/luxury cars but no one would call them a premium car manufacturer. Would you agree?


soulpatchmike

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 188
  • Age: 48
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1238 on: November 28, 2022, 12:17:21 PM »
BEV companies are not competing against each other for BEV customers, they are competing against ICE mfgs for new BEV owners. 

BYD is competing for traditional ICE compact coupes and sedans which are low margin, low cost vehicles.

Tesla is competing for traditional ICE intermediate and full size sedan and SUVs that are high margin and premium pricing.  They don't compete against each other.

The pool of new BEV customers is growing faster than people can count.  Any EV mfg that is not selling on a waiting list without advertising should do themselves a favor and just shut down, they are done.  Global BEV market share is still less than 10% of all vehicle sales.  All BEV mfg can grow BEV sales at 50% per year for a number of years before reaching a saturation point.  The catch is that traditional mfg are not necessarily growing top or bottom line at 50% per year because they are just swapping ICE owners with BEV owners.

I'm confused now. Please help.

1) Tesla is not competing against a legacy and now pure EV company because most of BYD's cars are not semi/luxury cars.

2) Tesla is competing against legacy ICE car companies that are (mostly) still selling ICE cars.

It doesn't seem like Ford, GM, Stellantis, Toyota, Honda, and Nissan meet both rules. They have some semi/luxury cars but no one would call them a premium car manufacturer. Would you agree?

I would not consider the M3/MY premium vehicles.  They are premium priced and compete with the intermediate ICE market.  A typical first-time tesla buyer has never purchased a car for more than 40k.
Tesla has already taken a lot of the buyers of the luxury market like BMW, Mercedes, Lexus, etc with both S/3/X/Y models and will continue to take more, but the Tesla logarithmic volume increase is coming from the intermediate/full size legacy auto.
Tesla is taking historic Ford Explorer and Taurus buyers
Tesla is taking historic Chev Traverse and Impala buyers
Tesla is taking historic Toyota Highlander and Camry buyers
Tesla is taking historic Honda CRV and Accord buyers, I know someone that went from a Civic to a tesla and the Civic was the most expensive car they had ever purchased.
Tesla is taking Nissan Murano and Maxima buyers

They are getting buyers from the smaller and larger versions of these mfg offerings too.

This is about how fast BEV mfg overall can scale, not about competition.  Every day more BEV buyers will be in line waiting for their opportunity to get out of their ICE vehicle into a BEV.  Tesla only needs to convert about 1 to 2 out of ten of these transitioners through the saturation period over the next ten years or so.  Now if and when these BYD buyers are ready for an intermediate or full-size vehicle, Tesla will be ready for them when they are ready.

I wish great success to BYD and expect they will surpass Tesla in unit BEV volume pretty soon, that might be because sub-compacts are higher volume vehicles worldwide than intermediate/full size like Tesla plays in.  But that doesn't change anything for either of them, they are each meeting a need in the market to convert ICE drivers to BEV. Fortunately for BYD, they are growing the overall company faster than the ICE sales are declining.  For the rest of legacy auto, it remains to be seen whether they can grow BEV as fast as ICE declines.  It is not looking good for most of them.

Comparing a BYD BEV against Tesla is like comparing a GEO Metro with a Chevy Malibu.  They are two different markets of buyers, both are necessary, but both did not provide the same profitability to the company when GEO was still around.  No one would say these two models are competing with each other for buyers.  If and when BYD comes to the US, they will be stealing from the sub-compact legacy ICE market of buyers.  As I said, it is all about converting ICE buyers.  If Tesla comes out of this in 10 years with 10-20%(1 to 2 out of ten ICE conversions to BEV) market share will make them the largest by a significant amount.  Toyota is the largest today with ~10% market share globally.
« Last Edit: November 28, 2022, 12:19:43 PM by soulpatchmike »

ColoradoTribe

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 394
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1239 on: November 28, 2022, 03:17:56 PM »
Tesla will exit 2022 with a run rate >2 million vehicles a year and industry leading margins. And all that doesnít even count the semi truck (first deliveries Dec 1) or the Cybertruck (deliveries start in 23Q1). The spring is being wound tight.

Given the declining situation in China, I don't see how Tesla can improve deliveries from 114k/month to 166k/quarter. The semi truck deliveries will be negligible this quarter but, if the semi impresses Pepsi, the order book will explode.

With Tesla's history of overpromising, though, I expect the semi delivery will be pushed to Q1.

There is no actual evidence of declining sales in China.

Bloomberg notes declining deliveries from the Shanghai plant. I mean, Beijing is once again a ghost town. How could sales be increasing with China's bizarre covid strategy?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-03/tesla-s-china-deliveries-fall-in-october-from-a-record-high

Quote from: bloomberg
Tesla Inc. China deliveries fell in October after reaching a record high in September, underscoring the automakerís recent price cut to boost sales.

Elon Muskís electric car pioneer shipped 71,704 cars from its Shanghai plant, according to a statement from Chinaís Passenger Car Association published Friday. Thatís up from a year ago, but down from a record high of 83,135 reached in September.
(bolded)


Quote
Folks have been claiming Tesla has hit a demand cliff for years now and have been proven horribly wrong for years. Someday, Tesla demand will peak, its inevitable, but that wonít happen as long as as ICE market share is shifting to EV market share. There will be regional fluctuations based on economic and regulatory factors, but worldwide demand for Tesla is going to increase for the foreseeable future.

Well, of course sales will increase as the ICE market decreases. What matters, though, is whether Tesla can continue to meet 40-50% yoy growth when facing increased competition and decreased (or fulfilled) demand for luxury and premium cars.

Well, youíve been spot on about Tesla over the years and up to this point :)

I guess if you keep predicting THIS is the year Tesla fails to grow 40-50% youíll eventually be right.  Youíll also be about as useful as a broken clock.

Not that youíll listen, but you canít gauge Chia demand by looking at month to month sales. Some months Tesla ships China production abroad and some months they focus on the domestic market. Iíll believe there is a China demand problem with China sales go down QoQ. That would be discouraging, but the only thing that really matters is global sales and any temporary stagnation in China market can be taken up by Europe, NA, Australia, SE Asia, etc. Tesla can also expand to new markets, such as India and South America. Tesla can also start marketing or reduce prices, so that theyíre only making unheard of 25% margins instead of unheard of 30% margins. Not to mention that US buyers will once again qualify for $7500 federal credit starting Jan 1. Tesla will be globally supply constrained for several years to come. The ďcompetitionĒ canít even get out of the starting gates.


chia demand is usually high over the christmas holiday.

cha cha cha chia!

LOL, just noticed this. I wonder is there is high Chia demand in China?

ColoradoTribe

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 394
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1240 on: November 28, 2022, 03:28:16 PM »
BEV companies are not competing against each other for BEV customers, they are competing against ICE mfgs for new BEV owners. 

BYD is competing for traditional ICE compact coupes and sedans which are low margin, low cost vehicles.

Tesla is competing for traditional ICE intermediate and full size sedan and SUVs that are high margin and premium pricing.  They don't compete against each other.

The pool of new BEV customers is growing faster than people can count.  Any EV mfg that is not selling on a waiting list without advertising should do themselves a favor and just shut down, they are done.  Global BEV market share is still less than 10% of all vehicle sales.  All BEV mfg can grow BEV sales at 50% per year for a number of years before reaching a saturation point.  The catch is that traditional mfg are not necessarily growing top or bottom line at 50% per year because they are just swapping ICE owners with BEV owners.

I'm confused now. Please help.

1) Tesla is not competing against a legacy and now pure EV company because most of BYD's cars are not semi/luxury cars.

2) Tesla is competing against legacy ICE car companies that are (mostly) still selling ICE cars.

It doesn't seem like Ford, GM, Stellantis, Toyota, Honda, and Nissan meet both rules. They have some semi/luxury cars but no one would call them a premium car manufacturer. Would you agree?

I would not consider the M3/MY premium vehicles.  They are premium priced and compete with the intermediate ICE market.  A typical first-time tesla buyer has never purchased a car for more than 40k.
Tesla has already taken a lot of the buyers of the luxury market like BMW, Mercedes, Lexus, etc with both S/3/X/Y models and will continue to take more, but the Tesla logarithmic volume increase is coming from the intermediate/full size legacy auto.
Tesla is taking historic Ford Explorer and Taurus buyers
Tesla is taking historic Chev Traverse and Impala buyers
Tesla is taking historic Toyota Highlander and Camry buyers
Tesla is taking historic Honda CRV and Accord buyers, I know someone that went from a Civic to a tesla and the Civic was the most expensive car they had ever purchased.
Tesla is taking Nissan Murano and Maxima buyers

They are getting buyers from the smaller and larger versions of these mfg offerings too.

This is about how fast BEV mfg overall can scale, not about competition.  Every day more BEV buyers will be in line waiting for their opportunity to get out of their ICE vehicle into a BEV.  Tesla only needs to convert about 1 to 2 out of ten of these transitioners through the saturation period over the next ten years or so.  Now if and when these BYD buyers are ready for an intermediate or full-size vehicle, Tesla will be ready for them when they are ready.

I wish great success to BYD and expect they will surpass Tesla in unit BEV volume pretty soon, that might be because sub-compacts are higher volume vehicles worldwide than intermediate/full size like Tesla plays in.  But that doesn't change anything for either of them, they are each meeting a need in the market to convert ICE drivers to BEV. Fortunately for BYD, they are growing the overall company faster than the ICE sales are declining.  For the rest of legacy auto, it remains to be seen whether they can grow BEV as fast as ICE declines.  It is not looking good for most of them.

Comparing a BYD BEV against Tesla is like comparing a GEO Metro with a Chevy Malibu.  They are two different markets of buyers, both are necessary, but both did not provide the same profitability to the company when GEO was still around.  No one would say these two models are competing with each other for buyers.  If and when BYD comes to the US, they will be stealing from the sub-compact legacy ICE market of buyers.  As I said, it is all about converting ICE buyers.  If Tesla comes out of this in 10 years with 10-20%(1 to 2 out of ten ICE conversions to BEV) market share will make them the largest by a significant amount.  Toyota is the largest today with ~10% market share globally.

Good post, spot on. As I see roughly half of the ICE incumbents failing without major government intervention, I think Teslaís automotive market share will be closer to the 20% in your range. Of course, this doesnít account for Tesla energy and solar revenue, Tesla insurance, supercharger network subscription service, commercial vehicle sales, or autopilot revenue.

achvfi

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 549
  • Location: Midwest
  • Health is wealth
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1241 on: November 29, 2022, 10:37:55 AM »
Its time to boycott Elon Musk businesses.

#BoycottTwitter #BoycottTesla

lemonlyman

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 424
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1242 on: November 29, 2022, 10:47:58 AM »
Its time to boycott Elon Musk businesses.

#BoycottTwitter #BoycottTesla

Nah

ColoradoTribe

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 394
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1243 on: November 29, 2022, 10:55:43 AM »
Apologies to Bacchi, but it looks like youíre going to have to find some new FUD. China sales are robust through the first two months of Q4.


Are we believing in the Class 8 Tesla Semi yet?

https://insideevs.com/news/623752/fully-loaded-tesla-semi-completed-500mile-drive/

...a Tesla Semi completed a 500-mile drive weighing in at 81,000 lbs, which is almost 100% of its Gross Combination Weight (GCW) of 82,000 lbs (37,195 kg).

Keep in mind the 500 mile range equates to roughly 8 hours of driving time, at which point drivers are mandated to take a break. The semi can then recover 70% charge in 30 minutes.

Time to update the list.

Bacchi will believe Tesla can..

build a compelling EV
mass produce an EV
build out a nationwide network of superchargers
open a factory in China in one yearís time from ground breaking
turn a profit
turn a profit in consecutive quarters
turn a profit for a whole year
grow 40-50% yoy
make their own batteries
sell vehicles with 28% margin
make a class 8 semi
maintain/grow China demand in face of increased Shanghai production


...when he sees it.





bacchi

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7176
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1244 on: November 29, 2022, 11:04:59 AM »
Bacchi will believe Tesla can..

build a compelling EV
mass produce an EV
build out a nationwide network of superchargers
open a factory in China in one yearís time from ground breaking
turn a profit
turn a profit in consecutive quarters
turn a profit for a whole year
grow 40-50% yoy
make their own batteries
sell vehicles with 28% margin
make a class 8 semi
maintain/grow China demand in face of increased Shanghai production


...when he sees it.

Attack the argument rather than the person.

This includes making shit up about what I've posted.
« Last Edit: November 29, 2022, 11:06:34 AM by bacchi »

ChpBstrd

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6850
  • Location: A poor and backward Southern state known as minimum wage country
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1245 on: November 29, 2022, 11:20:21 AM »
2023 will be the year investors start thinking about TSLA as just another car company. New competition in the BEV space, and perhaps softening demand, will bring Tesla's margins closer to industry norms. If Tesla's margins collapse faster than growth makes up for it, we might see some losing quarters from TSLA. Even if that doesn't happen, the wide range of new market entrants will put the kibosh on all this talk about Tesla's world domination and raise questions about valuation.

https://www.greencars.com/expert-insights/new-electric-vehicles-coming-in-2023
https://topelectricsuv.com/featured/upcoming-electric-cars-2022-2023/#Tesla_Roadster

Scandium

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2886
  • Location: EastCoast
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1246 on: November 29, 2022, 11:22:11 AM »
Its time to boycott Elon Musk businesses.

#BoycottTwitter #BoycottTesla

Ok, sure; I won't spend $85,000 on a Tesla. Tough decision, but we all have to make sacrifices.

lemonlyman

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 424
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1247 on: November 29, 2022, 11:57:01 AM »
2023 will be the year investors start thinking about TSLA as just another car company. New competition in the BEV space, and perhaps softening demand, will bring Tesla's margins closer to industry norms. If Tesla's margins collapse faster than growth makes up for it, we might see some losing quarters from TSLA. Even if that doesn't happen, the wide range of new market entrants will put the kibosh on all this talk about Tesla's world domination and raise questions about valuation.

https://www.greencars.com/expert-insights/new-electric-vehicles-coming-in-2023
https://topelectricsuv.com/featured/upcoming-electric-cars-2022-2023/#Tesla_Roadster

I think you should consider the nuances in the business models of Tesla vs other OEMs. Why do you think industry margins would homogenous? Especially between EV and ICE. Tesla's manufacturing processes are wildly different than other manufacturers so why should Gross Margin be the same? Here's a video of Munroe and Associates going over the iterations of Tesla's body manufacturing: https://youtu.be/WNWYk4DdT_E

There are also software products, insurance, energy products (storage deployed grew 62% yoy), charging infrastructure, and revenue from services and parts which is just getting off the ground because there's actually many cars on the road now as opposed to some companies like Ford and GM which are a century old.

New EV entrants isn't an argument for margin collapse.

You know a ton about investing. It's obvious and I see it in other threads. I'm just not sure you're educating yourself on this company or the industry before passing judgments.
« Last Edit: November 29, 2022, 12:15:45 PM by lemonlyman »

Viking Thor

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 186
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1248 on: November 29, 2022, 07:22:59 PM »
Yes I mean this year is strange, Tesla is putting up huge growth in revenue and profits plus having tons of added growth in pipeline (semi, Cyber truck, etc) and yet the stock continues to have huge negativity and tank.

Lots of people don't understand the company.

Look at Tesla and Amazon for example. Tesla is growing profit and revenue much faster but has a much lower PE valuation.

There is a lot of anti Tesla and anti Elon sentiment in the media, and I think its dragging down the stock.

If Elon had not bought Twitter I'm pretty sure Tesla would be much more highly valued; although I don't like his tweets etc I don't think that impacts Tesla long term prospects.

Another example:
When Tesla does some minor over the air software patch for a small number of vehicles, that's classified as a recall, you see lots of doom sounding headlines. Like a 50k car over the air recall for Tesla that has literally no cost involved gets more bad press than another company recalling many more cars that they need to pay to repair at a dealership.

NorCal

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1571
Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1249 on: November 29, 2022, 08:22:10 PM »
I'm just jumping in this thread now, and haven't read many post before this.  I do own a tiny number of Tesla shares, but bought them too high.

I think there's a compelling case to buy Tesla shares at their current price.  For the quarter ended 9/30, they had ~50% YoY revenue growth and roughly doubled net income on a YoY basis.

They'll keep growing the top line at least 30-50%+ as they build out factories and finally start adding their new models.  I haven't built out a detailed model or anything, but it's hard to imagine the bottom line growing at less than 50% for the next few years.

I think the shares are effectively on sale due to the "Elon Musk shitshow discount".  Hopefully he gets fired soon enough and the price should rebound.

There will also be some Q4 weirdness with the new tax incentives and people delaying deliveries into 2023. 

There certainly are some headwinds that I don't want to discount too much.  China's economy is decelerating rapidly, and the new interest rate environment is going to crimp demand for expensive cars.  They'll probably lose some of their pricing power over the next few years as the economy cools and EV competition really gets going.  But I'll say that the growth prospects still look strong even under these conditions.
« Last Edit: November 29, 2022, 08:30:49 PM by NorCal »

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!