Author Topic: Is Tesla a good investment?  (Read 410319 times)

FINate

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2200 on: January 31, 2024, 08:56:54 AM »
The market may also be responding to a 10% decline in California Tesla registrations 2023Q4 along with a 10% drop in CA market share: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-california-registrations-fall-first-213325911.html

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2201 on: January 31, 2024, 09:17:43 AM »
Musk's $56B comp package voided by Delaware court. Is this good, bad, neutral for TSLA? Shares down after hours, interested to see what happens tomorrow.

This seems like it could greatly complicate Elon's push for more control of Tesla. Does the board give in to his demands and risk another lawsuit? Does Elon walk and/or effectively kill AI/robotics at Tesla? He risks becoming a paper tiger if he doesn't follow through... that's the risk of going public with an ultimatum. Very messy, but extremely fascinating.
I hear from a lot of investors who swear to never again buy Chinese stocks because no matter how well the company does, common shareholders will never receive the value. The whole system is corrupt, they say, and a common share in a Chinese company is NOT the same thing as a common share in a US company because it exists in a communist context where powerful people extort the profits.

And then they own TSLA.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2202 on: January 31, 2024, 02:25:18 PM »
Musk's $56B comp package voided by Delaware court. Is this good, bad, neutral for TSLA? Shares down after hours, interested to see what happens tomorrow.

This seems like it could greatly complicate Elon's push for more control of Tesla. Does the board give in to his demands and risk another lawsuit? Does Elon walk and/or effectively kill AI/robotics at Tesla? He risks becoming a paper tiger if he doesn't follow through... that's the risk of going public with an ultimatum. Very messy, but extremely fascinating.
I hear from a lot of investors who swear to never again buy Chinese stocks because no matter how well the company does, common shareholders will never receive the value. The whole system is corrupt, they say, and a common share in a Chinese company is NOT the same thing as a common share in a US company because it exists in a communist context where powerful people extort the profits.

And then they own TSLA.

I'm not seeing how china owns tesla?

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2203 on: January 31, 2024, 02:54:50 PM »
Nice to see the usual suspects are still trolling this thread when the Tesla stock price takes a dip. If they keep predicting Teslaís impending doom Iím sure theyíll be right one of these years.

bacchi

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2204 on: January 31, 2024, 02:59:17 PM »
Nice to see the usual suspects are still trolling this thread when the Tesla stock price takes a dip. If they keep predicting Teslaís impending doom Iím sure theyíll be right one of these years.

How much is your Tesla robotaxi making for you?

FINate

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2205 on: January 31, 2024, 04:48:02 PM »
I mean, it's not like anything else newsworthy recently occurred that's relevant to this thread.

AdrianC

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2206 on: February 01, 2024, 06:51:31 AM »
Musk's $56B comp package voided by Delaware court. Is this good, bad, neutral for TSLA? Shares down after hours, interested to see what happens tomorrow.

This seems like it could greatly complicate Elon's push for more control of Tesla. Does the board give in to his demands and risk another lawsuit? Does Elon walk and/or effectively kill AI/robotics at Tesla? He risks becoming a paper tiger if he doesn't follow through... that's the risk of going public with an ultimatum. Very messy, but extremely fascinating.
I hear from a lot of investors who swear to never again buy Chinese stocks because no matter how well the company does, common shareholders will never receive the value. The whole system is corrupt, they say, and a common share in a Chinese company is NOT the same thing as a common share in a US company because it exists in a communist context where powerful people extort the profits.

And then they own TSLA.

I'm not seeing how china owns tesla?
Tesla insiders have pulled out more money by selling stock given as compensation than Tesla has made in profits, so far.
Now, Musk, who has sold $40bn or so himself (last time I looked), wants the board to grant him enough stock to about double his ownership.
Or something like that.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2207 on: February 01, 2024, 07:02:09 AM »
Musk's $56B comp package voided by Delaware court. Is this good, bad, neutral for TSLA? Shares down after hours, interested to see what happens tomorrow.

This seems like it could greatly complicate Elon's push for more control of Tesla. Does the board give in to his demands and risk another lawsuit? Does Elon walk and/or effectively kill AI/robotics at Tesla? He risks becoming a paper tiger if he doesn't follow through... that's the risk of going public with an ultimatum. Very messy, but extremely fascinating.
I hear from a lot of investors who swear to never again buy Chinese stocks because no matter how well the company does, common shareholders will never receive the value. The whole system is corrupt, they say, and a common share in a Chinese company is NOT the same thing as a common share in a US company because it exists in a communist context where powerful people extort the profits.

And then they own TSLA.

I'm not seeing how china owns tesla?
Tesla insiders have pulled out more money by selling stock given as compensation than Tesla has made in profits, so far.
Now, Musk, who has sold $40bn or so himself (last time I looked), wants the board to grant him enough stock to about double his ownership.
Or something like that.

but where does china come into it?

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2208 on: February 01, 2024, 07:08:22 AM »
Musk's $56B comp package voided by Delaware court. Is this good, bad, neutral for TSLA? Shares down after hours, interested to see what happens tomorrow.

This seems like it could greatly complicate Elon's push for more control of Tesla. Does the board give in to his demands and risk another lawsuit? Does Elon walk and/or effectively kill AI/robotics at Tesla? He risks becoming a paper tiger if he doesn't follow through... that's the risk of going public with an ultimatum. Very messy, but extremely fascinating.
I hear from a lot of investors who swear to never again buy Chinese stocks because no matter how well the company does, common shareholders will never receive the value. The whole system is corrupt, they say, and a common share in a Chinese company is NOT the same thing as a common share in a US company because it exists in a communist context where powerful people extort the profits.

And then they own TSLA.

I'm not seeing how china owns tesla?
Tesla insiders have pulled out more money by selling stock given as compensation than Tesla has made in profits, so far.
Now, Musk, who has sold $40bn or so himself (last time I looked), wants the board to grant him enough stock to about double his ownership.
Or something like that.

but where does china come into it?
It doesn't. The point is that an investor who discounts or avoids Chinese companies for the reasons outlined above should also discount or avoid Tesla for the reasons outlined above. Tesla is no more configured to return profits to common shareholders than companies in the PRC. This episode demonstrates severe problems with corporate governance that are bound to bite small investors in the long run.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2209 on: February 01, 2024, 04:16:49 PM »
Nice to see the usual suspects are still trolling this thread when the Tesla stock price takes a dip. If they keep predicting Teslaís impending doom Iím sure theyíll be right one of these years.

How much is your Tesla robotaxi making for you?

My Tesla robotaxi has the same value as your Tesla analysis..


FINate

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2210 on: February 01, 2024, 07:25:02 PM »
There's a fair point to be made about cherry picking time periods to make a case for or against TSLA. Clearly, those that invested pre-2021ish have done quite well, in particular anyone that sold before about 2022.

However, one of the fascinating things about long threads like this is the ability to go back and see analysis/predictions on the record. IMO, these are fair game.

I don't think I was too far off in my first post (I think?) to this thread, with concerns around TSLA's high PE ratio in an increasingly competitive EV market. In subsequent posts I quoted forecasts from Ford that proved wildly optimistic (like 200k Mach E units in 2023, but really more like 40k). I'm sure I was wrong in other areas as well... e.g. EV growth slowed more than many expected, including me.

@ColoradoTribe you've been very active on this thread making your case for TSLA based on your investing thesis. I'd like to draw attention to one of your posts from Oct 28, 2021 (emphasis added):

Tesla is a maturing company. Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative. Demand is on the rise, margins are increasing, new models are on the horizon, two new factories will start production in the next 1-3 months. The energy storage and grid services side of the business is just getting started. FSD is more speculative, but could be massively profitable if solved fully. I personally wonít be shedding any of my shares in the next 2-3 years at least.

As of today, TSLA is down 49% from the date of your post. For comparison, VTI in this same window is positive 2.6%. In fact TSLA has trailed VTI during this period with the exception of a couple weeks. Do you still stand by your analysis?

Still waiting to see what CAGR will be for the EV industry and TSLA in 2026.

bacchi

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2211 on: February 01, 2024, 08:22:30 PM »
My Tesla robotaxi has the same value as your Tesla analysis..

Hey, I correctly predicted the Q4 2022 miss.

I admit, the following didn't age well. Oh, wait. BYD did in fact produce 1.6M BEVs in 2023. I was right there too.

I will buy the competition is coming narrative as soon as someone points to a realistic pathway for another EV manufacturer to produce a  million EVs in 2023 or 2 million in 2024.
(bolded)

BYD delivered 114k BEVs in November (~147% growth from 11/21) and are on target to deliver over a million in 2023 (799k ytd through 11/30/22).

For the record, as long as we're discussing poor predictions, are you predicting that robotaxi will happen in 2024? If you predict it every year, you'll probably be right eventually.

waltworks

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2212 on: February 01, 2024, 09:33:01 PM »
I am too lazy to go find it, but I think one of my predictions from a few years back on this thread was that if Tesla's trajectory was to end up as a small/medium car company, as seemed (to me) likely, that was not a scenario that justified the stock price.

Tesla sales are still growing but is anyone really going to predict more 50%/year growth? Going from 100k to 200k units is hard. Going from 1.8 million in 2023 to even 2.5 million in 2024 is going to be super hard. Forget about 3+ million unless there's a model 2 waiting in the wings and production can get going gangbusters in no time.

That said, my predictions are usually worthless, and Robotaxi could still happen. Also I actually like Tesla (my son still has his share!) and I'd love to see them prove me wrong.

-W

DarkandStormy

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2213 on: February 02, 2024, 07:24:58 AM »
Tesla was included in the S&P 500 on December 18, 2020, over three years ago at this point.

Since then, TSLA has underperformed the S&P 500 by over 50%.

So to answer the question of this thread, no, Tesla has not been a good long-term investment (unless you got in before ~August 2020 and haven't bought any more).

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2214 on: February 02, 2024, 08:50:30 AM »
Musk's $56B comp package voided by Delaware court. Is this good, bad, neutral for TSLA? Shares down after hours, interested to see what happens tomorrow.

This seems like it could greatly complicate Elon's push for more control of Tesla. Does the board give in to his demands and risk another lawsuit? Does Elon walk and/or effectively kill AI/robotics at Tesla? He risks becoming a paper tiger if he doesn't follow through... that's the risk of going public with an ultimatum. Very messy, but extremely fascinating.
I hear from a lot of investors who swear to never again buy Chinese stocks because no matter how well the company does, common shareholders will never receive the value. The whole system is corrupt, they say, and a common share in a Chinese company is NOT the same thing as a common share in a US company because it exists in a communist context where powerful people extort the profits.

And then they own TSLA.

I'm not seeing how china owns tesla?
Tesla insiders have pulled out more money by selling stock given as compensation than Tesla has made in profits, so far.
Now, Musk, who has sold $40bn or so himself (last time I looked), wants the board to grant him enough stock to about double his ownership.
Or something like that.

but where does china come into it?
It doesn't. The point is that an investor who discounts or avoids Chinese companies for the reasons outlined above should also discount or avoid Tesla for the reasons outlined above. Tesla is no more configured to return profits to common shareholders than companies in the PRC. This episode demonstrates severe problems with corporate governance that are bound to bite small investors in the long run.

LOL, ok thanks for explaining. I took the "them" in your post to be china, not the retail investor.....was quite confused!

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2215 on: February 02, 2024, 09:36:44 AM »
There's a fair point to be made about cherry picking time periods to make a case for or against TSLA. Clearly, those that invested pre-2021ish have done quite well, in particular anyone that sold before about 2022.

However, one of the fascinating things about long threads like this is the ability to go back and see analysis/predictions on the record. IMO, these are fair game.

I don't think I was too far off in my first post (I think?) to this thread, with concerns around TSLA's high PE ratio in an increasingly competitive EV market. In subsequent posts I quoted forecasts from Ford that proved wildly optimistic (like 200k Mach E units in 2023, but really more like 40k). I'm sure I was wrong in other areas as well... e.g. EV growth slowed more than many expected, including me.

@ColoradoTribe you've been very active on this thread making your case for TSLA based on your investing thesis. I'd like to draw attention to one of your posts from Oct 28, 2021 (emphasis added):

Tesla is a maturing company. Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative. Demand is on the rise, margins are increasing, new models are on the horizon, two new factories will start production in the next 1-3 months. The energy storage and grid services side of the business is just getting started. FSD is more speculative, but could be massively profitable if solved fully. I personally wonít be shedding any of my shares in the next 2-3 years at least.

As of today, TSLA is down 49% from the date of your post. For comparison, VTI in this same window is positive 2.6%. In fact TSLA has trailed VTI during this period with the exception of a couple weeks. Do you still stand by your analysis?

Still waiting to see what CAGR will be for the EV industry and TSLA in 2026.

The stock price performance short term has no bearing or connection to the company's performance. Do you think Tesla wasnít growing as a company when it traded sideways or worse from 2013 to 2019? Of course not! I invested in 2013 and had to gut out 6 years of lateral movement during a bull market. I was able to do that because I knew Tesla was executing on its plans all the while and my investment thesis was intact despite Wall Streetís ignorance.

Same is the case now. Look at my post above that you quoted. EV demand is on the rise to this day (check the YOY global sales of EVs) and donít fall for the failing OEM's (Ford, GM, VW) narrative that they canít sell their EVs because of "demand issues". They canít sell their EVs because they canít compete with Tesla (and Chinese EVs) on price and performance. The energy storage and grid services business is taking off, growing over 50% YOY while increasing margins. Two new megapack factories are under construction in China and NV. The Tesla semi factory is under construction in NV. New models have come to market (CyberTruck, refreshed M3) or are under development (Gen 3 platform) for 2025. Two new factories (Austin and Berlin) are cranking out vehicles. Model Y was the best selling car of any kind (BEV, ICE, etc.) in the world in 2023.

So, Tesla did or is doing everything I said they would be doing in my post from Oct 2019. I care about execution and trends, not short term noise and stock volatility. I waited six years for the first big jump and can wait another six if necessary for the next leg up when reality once again smacks WS in the face.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2216 on: February 02, 2024, 09:41:39 AM »
I am too lazy to go find it, but I think one of my predictions from a few years back on this thread was that if Tesla's trajectory was to end up as a small/medium car company, as seemed (to me) likely, that was not a scenario that justified the stock price.

Tesla sales are still growing but is anyone really going to predict more 50%/year growth? Going from 100k to 200k units is hard. Going from 1.8 million in 2023 to even 2.5 million in 2024 is going to be super hard. Forget about 3+ million unless there's a model 2 waiting in the wings and production can get going gangbusters in no time.

That said, my predictions are usually worthless, and Robotaxi could still happen. Also I actually like Tesla (my son still has his share!) and I'd love to see them prove me wrong.

-W

If Tesla only grows an average of 35% a year going forward itís a busted growth story? Does 50% YOY growth in energy storage factor at all? What about supercharger revenue? How much is a robot that can perform general work tasks on an assembly line potentially worth? Do you think Tesla sales will grow rapidly when they introduce a $25k EV in 2025? What about over 2 million Cyber truck reservations? Tesla semi?

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2217 on: February 02, 2024, 09:53:06 AM »
My Tesla robotaxi has the same value as your Tesla analysis..

Hey, I correctly predicted the Q4 2022 miss.

I admit, the following didn't age well. Oh, wait. BYD did in fact produce 1.6M BEVs in 2023. I was right there too.

I will buy the competition is coming narrative as soon as someone points to a realistic pathway for another EV manufacturer to produce a  million EVs in 2023 or 2 million in 2024.
(bolded)

BYD delivered 114k BEVs in November (~147% growth from 11/21) and are on target to deliver over a million in 2023 (799k ytd through 11/30/22).

For the record, as long as we're discussing poor predictions, are you predicting that robotaxi will happen in 2024? If you predict it every year, you'll probably be right eventually.

Iíve never discounted BYDís competitiveness. I have said thereís room for BYD and Tesla to both be successful. Though it should be noted that BYDís margin on their 2023 vehicles was close to zero. The advantage of scale is supposed to be profitability. Meanwhile Ford, GM, VW, and Stellantis are basically giving up on competing with Tesla on the EV front, cancelling the plans you all touted on here as ďthe competition is coming to crush TeslaĒ when they announced their ambitious EV plans years ago. None of them reached volume or hit their targets and theyíre now scaling back or throwing in the towel. Japanese manufacturers are even worse as they deny reality and continue to push hydrogen or insist ICE still has a future.

Iíve never put a date on the robotaxi. Iíve never included robotaxi as a core tenet of my investment thesis, but keep beating that dead horse if it makes you feel better.

FINate

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2218 on: February 02, 2024, 10:29:15 AM »
There's a fair point to be made about cherry picking time periods to make a case for or against TSLA. Clearly, those that invested pre-2021ish have done quite well, in particular anyone that sold before about 2022.

However, one of the fascinating things about long threads like this is the ability to go back and see analysis/predictions on the record. IMO, these are fair game.

I don't think I was too far off in my first post (I think?) to this thread, with concerns around TSLA's high PE ratio in an increasingly competitive EV market. In subsequent posts I quoted forecasts from Ford that proved wildly optimistic (like 200k Mach E units in 2023, but really more like 40k). I'm sure I was wrong in other areas as well... e.g. EV growth slowed more than many expected, including me.

@ColoradoTribe you've been very active on this thread making your case for TSLA based on your investing thesis. I'd like to draw attention to one of your posts from Oct 28, 2021 (emphasis added):

Tesla is a maturing company. Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative. Demand is on the rise, margins are increasing, new models are on the horizon, two new factories will start production in the next 1-3 months. The energy storage and grid services side of the business is just getting started. FSD is more speculative, but could be massively profitable if solved fully. I personally wonít be shedding any of my shares in the next 2-3 years at least.

As of today, TSLA is down 49% from the date of your post. For comparison, VTI in this same window is positive 2.6%. In fact TSLA has trailed VTI during this period with the exception of a couple weeks. Do you still stand by your analysis?

Still waiting to see what CAGR will be for the EV industry and TSLA in 2026.

The stock price performance short term has no bearing or connection to the company's performance. Do you think Tesla wasnít growing as a company when it traded sideways or worse from 2013 to 2019? Of course not! I invested in 2013 and had to gut out 6 years of lateral movement during a bull market. I was able to do that because I knew Tesla was executing on its plans all the while and my investment thesis was intact despite Wall Streetís ignorance.

Same is the case now. Look at my post above that you quoted. EV demand is on the rise to this day (check the YOY global sales of EVs) and donít fall for the failing OEM's (Ford, GM, VW) narrative that they canít sell their EVs because of "demand issues". They canít sell their EVs because they canít compete with Tesla (and Chinese EVs) on price and performance. The energy storage and grid services business is taking off, growing over 50% YOY while increasing margins. Two new megapack factories are under construction in China and NV. The Tesla semi factory is under construction in NV. New models have come to market (CyberTruck, refreshed M3) or are under development (Gen 3 platform) for 2025. Two new factories (Austin and Berlin) are cranking out vehicles. Model Y was the best selling car of any kind (BEV, ICE, etc.) in the world in 2023.

So, Tesla did or is doing everything I said they would be doing in my post from Oct 2019. I care about execution and trends, not short term noise and stock volatility. I waited six years for the first big jump and can wait another six if necessary for the next leg up when reality once again smacks WS in the face.

You didn't answer my question. Do you stand by your statement from Oct 2021 that "Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative"?

I didn't ask about 2013-2019 .. TSLA was indeed a good investment in that time period, which I have already acknowledged here.

You doubled down on your investing thesis rather than answer my direct question. Are we then to understand that you stand by your claim that TSLA was not a risky investment in 2021? If so, then those reading this thread should understand that you have a rather extreme tolerance for risk, perhaps risk seeking even, and so your thesis and analysis should be calibrated accordingly.

If, on the other hand, you do not stand by your claim, a simple "I was wrong" is sufficient. My intention isn't to gloat or rub it in your face. We all make predictions about an unknowable future, and we all get it wrong. What I'm looking for is what we as a community can learn from this, where did your analysis go wrong?

bacchi

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2219 on: February 02, 2024, 10:46:25 AM »
Though it should be noted that BYDís margin on their 2023 vehicles was close to zero.

IBD claims otherwise.

Quote from: https://www.investors.com/news/tesla-vs-byd-2024-tsla-stock-ev-rivals/
Tesla gross margin fell to 17.6% from 17.9% in Q3 and 23.8% in Q4 2022.
[...]
BYD's Q3 gross margin was 22.1%, the highest since Q3 2020, with BYD Auto's gross margin surging to 25.7%. But Q4 preliminary figures suggest that margins took a big hit.

Margins are ambiguous though. Have a source that states BYD's margins are close to 0?

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2220 on: February 02, 2024, 12:36:26 PM »
There's a fair point to be made about cherry picking time periods to make a case for or against TSLA. Clearly, those that invested pre-2021ish have done quite well, in particular anyone that sold before about 2022.

However, one of the fascinating things about long threads like this is the ability to go back and see analysis/predictions on the record. IMO, these are fair game.

I don't think I was too far off in my first post (I think?) to this thread, with concerns around TSLA's high PE ratio in an increasingly competitive EV market. In subsequent posts I quoted forecasts from Ford that proved wildly optimistic (like 200k Mach E units in 2023, but really more like 40k). I'm sure I was wrong in other areas as well... e.g. EV growth slowed more than many expected, including me.

@ColoradoTribe you've been very active on this thread making your case for TSLA based on your investing thesis. I'd like to draw attention to one of your posts from Oct 28, 2021 (emphasis added):

Tesla is a maturing company. Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative. Demand is on the rise, margins are increasing, new models are on the horizon, two new factories will start production in the next 1-3 months. The energy storage and grid services side of the business is just getting started. FSD is more speculative, but could be massively profitable if solved fully. I personally wonít be shedding any of my shares in the next 2-3 years at least.

As of today, TSLA is down 49% from the date of your post. For comparison, VTI in this same window is positive 2.6%. In fact TSLA has trailed VTI during this period with the exception of a couple weeks. Do you still stand by your analysis?

Still waiting to see what CAGR will be for the EV industry and TSLA in 2026.

The stock price performance short term has no bearing or connection to the company's performance. Do you think Tesla wasnít growing as a company when it traded sideways or worse from 2013 to 2019? Of course not! I invested in 2013 and had to gut out 6 years of lateral movement during a bull market. I was able to do that because I knew Tesla was executing on its plans all the while and my investment thesis was intact despite Wall Streetís ignorance.

Same is the case now. Look at my post above that you quoted. EV demand is on the rise to this day (check the YOY global sales of EVs) and donít fall for the failing OEM's (Ford, GM, VW) narrative that they canít sell their EVs because of "demand issues". They canít sell their EVs because they canít compete with Tesla (and Chinese EVs) on price and performance. The energy storage and grid services business is taking off, growing over 50% YOY while increasing margins. Two new megapack factories are under construction in China and NV. The Tesla semi factory is under construction in NV. New models have come to market (CyberTruck, refreshed M3) or are under development (Gen 3 platform) for 2025. Two new factories (Austin and Berlin) are cranking out vehicles. Model Y was the best selling car of any kind (BEV, ICE, etc.) in the world in 2023.

So, Tesla did or is doing everything I said they would be doing in my post from Oct 2019. I care about execution and trends, not short term noise and stock volatility. I waited six years for the first big jump and can wait another six if necessary for the next leg up when reality once again smacks WS in the face.

You didn't answer my question. Do you stand by your statement from Oct 2021 that "Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative"?

I didn't ask about 2013-2019 .. TSLA was indeed a good investment in that time period, which I have already acknowledged here.

You doubled down on your investing thesis rather than answer my direct question. Are we then to understand that you stand by your claim that TSLA was not a risky investment in 2021? If so, then those reading this thread should understand that you have a rather extreme tolerance for risk, perhaps risk seeking even, and so your thesis and analysis should be calibrated accordingly.

If, on the other hand, you do not stand by your claim, a simple "I was wrong" is sufficient. My intention isn't to gloat or rub it in your face. We all make predictions about an unknowable future, and we all get it wrong. What I'm looking for is what we as a community can learn from this, where did your analysis go wrong?

Good grief grand inquisitor, I thought it was pretty obvious from my response that I stand by my statement. If everything I predicted would happen has happened when I made that claim why wouldnít I stand by that statement? But here, if this helps; I, ColoradoTribe, hereby stand by my October 2021 statement and reaffirm that Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative.

As for the rest of your post, I assume youíre joking? As I spelled out above, my predictions about the company performance were spot on. I never made a prediction on stock price, because the stock price can be disconnected from reality for long periods of time, see 2013 - 2019 (and I donít care if you asked about that time period or not, its relevant to my long-term Tesla investment and my 7-figure gains). It also proves the stock price can lag the companyís performance significantly and for long periods. Just like the period weíre in right now, where Tesla continues to execute at a high level (as I laid out in my previous post) but the market is slow to catch up to reality.

What the community can learn from this is donít listen to poorly informed internet geniuses with axes to grind and no skin in the game. If they were considering an investment in Tesla and listened to you or your ilk when this thread started they missed out on 9X gains based on todayís close or 19X gains had they cashed out at the ATH a mere 3.5 years after this thread started.

The fact that you only have the bravado to come on this thread and spout off when the short term stock price is down tells me all I need to know. I on the other hand have stuck to my simple investment thesis since 2013 regardless of short-term noice, stock volatility, and meaningless distractions. It probably seems risky to those following the news headlines and not diving deep into the market and Teslaís underlying performance, engineering and execution. I donít know why others feel the need to attribute othersí success to either luck or extreme risk taking. The risk with Tesla was no more than with any other tech growth stock, I would argue far less.

Thesis:

1) Are EVs, renewable energy and energy storage the future?
2) Is Tesla the leader in EVs and energy storage?



DarkandStormy

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2221 on: February 02, 2024, 12:59:31 PM »
There's a fair point to be made about cherry picking time periods to make a case for or against TSLA. Clearly, those that invested pre-2021ish have done quite well, in particular anyone that sold before about 2022.

However, one of the fascinating things about long threads like this is the ability to go back and see analysis/predictions on the record. IMO, these are fair game.

I don't think I was too far off in my first post (I think?) to this thread, with concerns around TSLA's high PE ratio in an increasingly competitive EV market. In subsequent posts I quoted forecasts from Ford that proved wildly optimistic (like 200k Mach E units in 2023, but really more like 40k). I'm sure I was wrong in other areas as well... e.g. EV growth slowed more than many expected, including me.

@ColoradoTribe you've been very active on this thread making your case for TSLA based on your investing thesis. I'd like to draw attention to one of your posts from Oct 28, 2021 (emphasis added):

Tesla is a maturing company. Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative. Demand is on the rise, margins are increasing, new models are on the horizon, two new factories will start production in the next 1-3 months. The energy storage and grid services side of the business is just getting started. FSD is more speculative, but could be massively profitable if solved fully. I personally wonít be shedding any of my shares in the next 2-3 years at least.

As of today, TSLA is down 49% from the date of your post. For comparison, VTI in this same window is positive 2.6%. In fact TSLA has trailed VTI during this period with the exception of a couple weeks. Do you still stand by your analysis?

Still waiting to see what CAGR will be for the EV industry and TSLA in 2026.

The stock price performance short term has no bearing or connection to the company's performance. Do you think Tesla wasnít growing as a company when it traded sideways or worse from 2013 to 2019? Of course not! I invested in 2013 and had to gut out 6 years of lateral movement during a bull market. I was able to do that because I knew Tesla was executing on its plans all the while and my investment thesis was intact despite Wall Streetís ignorance.

Same is the case now. Look at my post above that you quoted. EV demand is on the rise to this day (check the YOY global sales of EVs) and donít fall for the failing OEM's (Ford, GM, VW) narrative that they canít sell their EVs because of "demand issues". They canít sell their EVs because they canít compete with Tesla (and Chinese EVs) on price and performance. The energy storage and grid services business is taking off, growing over 50% YOY while increasing margins. Two new megapack factories are under construction in China and NV. The Tesla semi factory is under construction in NV. New models have come to market (CyberTruck, refreshed M3) or are under development (Gen 3 platform) for 2025. Two new factories (Austin and Berlin) are cranking out vehicles. Model Y was the best selling car of any kind (BEV, ICE, etc.) in the world in 2023.

So, Tesla did or is doing everything I said they would be doing in my post from Oct 2019. I care about execution and trends, not short term noise and stock volatility. I waited six years for the first big jump and can wait another six if necessary for the next leg up when reality once again smacks WS in the face.

You didn't answer my question. Do you stand by your statement from Oct 2021 that "Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative"?

I didn't ask about 2013-2019 .. TSLA was indeed a good investment in that time period, which I have already acknowledged here.

You doubled down on your investing thesis rather than answer my direct question. Are we then to understand that you stand by your claim that TSLA was not a risky investment in 2021? If so, then those reading this thread should understand that you have a rather extreme tolerance for risk, perhaps risk seeking even, and so your thesis and analysis should be calibrated accordingly.

If, on the other hand, you do not stand by your claim, a simple "I was wrong" is sufficient. My intention isn't to gloat or rub it in your face. We all make predictions about an unknowable future, and we all get it wrong. What I'm looking for is what we as a community can learn from this, where did your analysis go wrong?

Good grief grand inquisitor, I thought it was pretty obvious from my response that I stand by my statement. If everything I predicted would happen has happened when I made that claim why wouldnít I stand by that statement? But here, if this helps; I, ColoradoTribe, hereby stand by my October 2021 statement and reaffirm that Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative.

As for the rest of your post, I assume youíre joking? As I spelled out above, my predictions about the company performance were spot on. I never made a prediction on stock price, because the stock price can be disconnected from reality for long periods of time, see 2013 - 2019 (and I donít care if you asked about that time period or not, its relevant to my long-term Tesla investment and my 7-figure gains). It also proves the stock price can lag the companyís performance significantly and for long periods. Just like the period weíre in right now, where Tesla continues to execute at a high level (as I laid out in my previous post) but the market is slow to catch up to reality.

What the community can learn from this is donít listen to poorly informed internet geniuses with axes to grind and no skin in the game. If they were considering an investment in Tesla and listened to you or your ilk when this thread started they missed out on 9X gains based on todayís close or 19X gains had they cashed out at the ATH a mere 3.5 years after this thread started.

The fact that you only have the bravado to come on this thread and spout off when the short term stock price is down tells me all I need to know. I on the other hand have stuck to my simple investment thesis since 2013 regardless of short-term noice, stock volatility, and meaningless distractions. It probably seems risky to those following the news headlines and not diving deep into the market and Teslaís underlying performance, engineering and execution. I donít know why others feel the need to attribute othersí success to either luck or extreme risk taking. The risk with Tesla was no more than with any other tech growth stock, I would argue far less.

Thesis:

1) Are EVs, renewable energy and energy storage the future?
2) Is Tesla the leader in EVs and energy storage?

This is a laughable thesis.

Both of the answers can be yes and Tesla still could not be a good investment.

-Declining margins
-Stale product lineup with nothing new on the way until 2026 at the earliest
-EPS declined YoY in 2023 and early 2024 ests have it in the ballpark of 2022
-CEO who wants out unless he gets more shares
-the 10th year in a row of autonomous driving promises - it'll be solved soon!

The 35% vs 50% absolutely matters - how do you think future valuations are calculated?

What do you think Tesla will be worth in 2030 and why?

DarkandStormy

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2222 on: February 02, 2024, 01:11:21 PM »
I've made a 3,500% return on TSLA. I feel like that's a sign I should cash in, but its only 3.8% of my portfolio. What do you all think? I guess at this point I'm never going to lose money, so maybe just hold it until I need money (or forever and give it to my kid?).


I raise this question only because I'm not sure where something goes from an investment to speculation...I honestly don't think the company is worth 1 Trillion, but what do I know?

Tesla is a maturing company. Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative. Demand is on the rise, margins are increasing, new models are on the horizon, two new factories will start production in the next 1-3 months. The energy storage and grid services side of the business is just getting started. FSD is more speculative, but could be massively profitable if solved fully. I personally wonít be shedding any of my shares in the next 2-3 years at least.

Tesla is demand limited.
Margins have fallen drastically.
One new half-baked model is here...to the tune of a few hundred units so far.
Two new factories that are manufacturing well below capacity because they are demand limited.

This post was near TSLA's ATH.  It's fallen some 54% since. You absolutely should have sold.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2223 on: February 02, 2024, 01:27:21 PM »
I am attracted to TSLA because of their high R&D spending.

I am wary of TSLA because of their extremely slow process of introducing new models. The model 3 is a design that was released 6 years ago and there has been relatively modest redesign or improvements since then. The Cybertruck was announced in 2019 but then didn't actually go on sale until over 4 years later, and at a price most of the public can't afford. Full self-driving is still not available.

Somewhere there is a breakdown where those R&D investments are not translating into rapid introduction of new products. Hyundai/Kia/Genesis have 6 EVs on sale in 2024, BMW has 3, and Tesla still only has 4 (S, 3, Y, and truck) after spending many times more money than their competitors developing those products. Maybe a new inexpensive car will come out of Tesla soon, but we can guarantee it's coming from their competitors.

Also, why are Teslas becoming notorious for quality control issues and cost of ownership issues if the company invested so much into these products? Where did the money go? Mars is actually not a silly answer.

FINate

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2224 on: February 02, 2024, 01:56:09 PM »
There's a fair point to be made about cherry picking time periods to make a case for or against TSLA. Clearly, those that invested pre-2021ish have done quite well, in particular anyone that sold before about 2022.

However, one of the fascinating things about long threads like this is the ability to go back and see analysis/predictions on the record. IMO, these are fair game.

I don't think I was too far off in my first post (I think?) to this thread, with concerns around TSLA's high PE ratio in an increasingly competitive EV market. In subsequent posts I quoted forecasts from Ford that proved wildly optimistic (like 200k Mach E units in 2023, but really more like 40k). I'm sure I was wrong in other areas as well... e.g. EV growth slowed more than many expected, including me.

@ColoradoTribe you've been very active on this thread making your case for TSLA based on your investing thesis. I'd like to draw attention to one of your posts from Oct 28, 2021 (emphasis added):

Tesla is a maturing company. Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative. Demand is on the rise, margins are increasing, new models are on the horizon, two new factories will start production in the next 1-3 months. The energy storage and grid services side of the business is just getting started. FSD is more speculative, but could be massively profitable if solved fully. I personally wonít be shedding any of my shares in the next 2-3 years at least.

As of today, TSLA is down 49% from the date of your post. For comparison, VTI in this same window is positive 2.6%. In fact TSLA has trailed VTI during this period with the exception of a couple weeks. Do you still stand by your analysis?

Still waiting to see what CAGR will be for the EV industry and TSLA in 2026.

The stock price performance short term has no bearing or connection to the company's performance. Do you think Tesla wasnít growing as a company when it traded sideways or worse from 2013 to 2019? Of course not! I invested in 2013 and had to gut out 6 years of lateral movement during a bull market. I was able to do that because I knew Tesla was executing on its plans all the while and my investment thesis was intact despite Wall Streetís ignorance.

Same is the case now. Look at my post above that you quoted. EV demand is on the rise to this day (check the YOY global sales of EVs) and donít fall for the failing OEM's (Ford, GM, VW) narrative that they canít sell their EVs because of "demand issues". They canít sell their EVs because they canít compete with Tesla (and Chinese EVs) on price and performance. The energy storage and grid services business is taking off, growing over 50% YOY while increasing margins. Two new megapack factories are under construction in China and NV. The Tesla semi factory is under construction in NV. New models have come to market (CyberTruck, refreshed M3) or are under development (Gen 3 platform) for 2025. Two new factories (Austin and Berlin) are cranking out vehicles. Model Y was the best selling car of any kind (BEV, ICE, etc.) in the world in 2023.

So, Tesla did or is doing everything I said they would be doing in my post from Oct 2019. I care about execution and trends, not short term noise and stock volatility. I waited six years for the first big jump and can wait another six if necessary for the next leg up when reality once again smacks WS in the face.

You didn't answer my question. Do you stand by your statement from Oct 2021 that "Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative"?

I didn't ask about 2013-2019 .. TSLA was indeed a good investment in that time period, which I have already acknowledged here.

You doubled down on your investing thesis rather than answer my direct question. Are we then to understand that you stand by your claim that TSLA was not a risky investment in 2021? If so, then those reading this thread should understand that you have a rather extreme tolerance for risk, perhaps risk seeking even, and so your thesis and analysis should be calibrated accordingly.

If, on the other hand, you do not stand by your claim, a simple "I was wrong" is sufficient. My intention isn't to gloat or rub it in your face. We all make predictions about an unknowable future, and we all get it wrong. What I'm looking for is what we as a community can learn from this, where did your analysis go wrong?

Good grief grand inquisitor, I thought it was pretty obvious from my response that I stand by my statement. If everything I predicted would happen has happened when I made that claim why wouldnít I stand by that statement? But here, if this helps; I, ColoradoTribe, hereby stand by my October 2021 statement and reaffirm that Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative.

As for the rest of your post, I assume youíre joking? As I spelled out above, my predictions about the company performance were spot on. I never made a prediction on stock price, because the stock price can be disconnected from reality for long periods of time, see 2013 - 2019 (and I donít care if you asked about that time period or not, its relevant to my long-term Tesla investment and my 7-figure gains). It also proves the stock price can lag the companyís performance significantly and for long periods. Just like the period weíre in right now, where Tesla continues to execute at a high level (as I laid out in my previous post) but the market is slow to catch up to reality.

What the community can learn from this is donít listen to poorly informed internet geniuses with axes to grind and no skin in the game. If they were considering an investment in Tesla and listened to you or your ilk when this thread started they missed out on 9X gains based on todayís close or 19X gains had they cashed out at the ATH a mere 3.5 years after this thread started.

The fact that you only have the bravado to come on this thread and spout off when the short term stock price is down tells me all I need to know. I on the other hand have stuck to my simple investment thesis since 2013 regardless of short-term noice, stock volatility, and meaningless distractions. It probably seems risky to those following the news headlines and not diving deep into the market and Teslaís underlying performance, engineering and execution. I donít know why others feel the need to attribute othersí success to either luck or extreme risk taking. The risk with Tesla was no more than with any other tech growth stock, I would argue far less.

Thesis:

1) Are EVs, renewable energy and energy storage the future?
2) Is Tesla the leader in EVs and energy storage?

Hostility and name calling weakens your argument.

You are unable to admit that you made an inaccurate forecast in Oct 2021. TSLA has consistently under-performed the market over this +2 year period, so it's not like I'm picking on a short term trend. Is it really such a big deal to concede this point? I'm trying to give you the opportunity to demonstrate a sliver of intellectual integrity.

Since you have a 7-figure gain in TSLA this means you have a lot riding on the success or failure of the company. This helps explain some of your responses. The fact that I don't directly own or short TSLA makes me a more objective outsider.

If the question "is Tesla a good investment?" can only evaluated based on your early investment then your thesis is specific to you alone and is irrelevant to the wider discussion on this thread.

I think the lesson for the community is: beware advice from those with a large financial and psychological stake in an investment.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2225 on: February 02, 2024, 02:06:25 PM »
There's a fair point to be made about cherry picking time periods to make a case for or against TSLA. Clearly, those that invested pre-2021ish have done quite well, in particular anyone that sold before about 2022.

However, one of the fascinating things about long threads like this is the ability to go back and see analysis/predictions on the record. IMO, these are fair game.

I don't think I was too far off in my first post (I think?) to this thread, with concerns around TSLA's high PE ratio in an increasingly competitive EV market. In subsequent posts I quoted forecasts from Ford that proved wildly optimistic (like 200k Mach E units in 2023, but really more like 40k). I'm sure I was wrong in other areas as well... e.g. EV growth slowed more than many expected, including me.

@ColoradoTribe you've been very active on this thread making your case for TSLA based on your investing thesis. I'd like to draw attention to one of your posts from Oct 28, 2021 (emphasis added):

Tesla is a maturing company. Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative. Demand is on the rise, margins are increasing, new models are on the horizon, two new factories will start production in the next 1-3 months. The energy storage and grid services side of the business is just getting started. FSD is more speculative, but could be massively profitable if solved fully. I personally wonít be shedding any of my shares in the next 2-3 years at least.

As of today, TSLA is down 49% from the date of your post. For comparison, VTI in this same window is positive 2.6%. In fact TSLA has trailed VTI during this period with the exception of a couple weeks. Do you still stand by your analysis?

Still waiting to see what CAGR will be for the EV industry and TSLA in 2026.

The stock price performance short term has no bearing or connection to the company's performance. Do you think Tesla wasnít growing as a company when it traded sideways or worse from 2013 to 2019? Of course not! I invested in 2013 and had to gut out 6 years of lateral movement during a bull market. I was able to do that because I knew Tesla was executing on its plans all the while and my investment thesis was intact despite Wall Streetís ignorance.

Same is the case now. Look at my post above that you quoted. EV demand is on the rise to this day (check the YOY global sales of EVs) and donít fall for the failing OEM's (Ford, GM, VW) narrative that they canít sell their EVs because of "demand issues". They canít sell their EVs because they canít compete with Tesla (and Chinese EVs) on price and performance. The energy storage and grid services business is taking off, growing over 50% YOY while increasing margins. Two new megapack factories are under construction in China and NV. The Tesla semi factory is under construction in NV. New models have come to market (CyberTruck, refreshed M3) or are under development (Gen 3 platform) for 2025. Two new factories (Austin and Berlin) are cranking out vehicles. Model Y was the best selling car of any kind (BEV, ICE, etc.) in the world in 2023.

So, Tesla did or is doing everything I said they would be doing in my post from Oct 2019. I care about execution and trends, not short term noise and stock volatility. I waited six years for the first big jump and can wait another six if necessary for the next leg up when reality once again smacks WS in the face.

You didn't answer my question. Do you stand by your statement from Oct 2021 that "Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative"?

I didn't ask about 2013-2019 .. TSLA was indeed a good investment in that time period, which I have already acknowledged here.

You doubled down on your investing thesis rather than answer my direct question. Are we then to understand that you stand by your claim that TSLA was not a risky investment in 2021? If so, then those reading this thread should understand that you have a rather extreme tolerance for risk, perhaps risk seeking even, and so your thesis and analysis should be calibrated accordingly.

If, on the other hand, you do not stand by your claim, a simple "I was wrong" is sufficient. My intention isn't to gloat or rub it in your face. We all make predictions about an unknowable future, and we all get it wrong. What I'm looking for is what we as a community can learn from this, where did your analysis go wrong?

Good grief grand inquisitor, I thought it was pretty obvious from my response that I stand by my statement. If everything I predicted would happen has happened when I made that claim why wouldnít I stand by that statement? But here, if this helps; I, ColoradoTribe, hereby stand by my October 2021 statement and reaffirm that Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative.

As for the rest of your post, I assume youíre joking? As I spelled out above, my predictions about the company performance were spot on. I never made a prediction on stock price, because the stock price can be disconnected from reality for long periods of time, see 2013 - 2019 (and I donít care if you asked about that time period or not, its relevant to my long-term Tesla investment and my 7-figure gains). It also proves the stock price can lag the companyís performance significantly and for long periods. Just like the period weíre in right now, where Tesla continues to execute at a high level (as I laid out in my previous post) but the market is slow to catch up to reality.

What the community can learn from this is donít listen to poorly informed internet geniuses with axes to grind and no skin in the game. If they were considering an investment in Tesla and listened to you or your ilk when this thread started they missed out on 9X gains based on todayís close or 19X gains had they cashed out at the ATH a mere 3.5 years after this thread started.

The fact that you only have the bravado to come on this thread and spout off when the short term stock price is down tells me all I need to know. I on the other hand have stuck to my simple investment thesis since 2013 regardless of short-term noice, stock volatility, and meaningless distractions. It probably seems risky to those following the news headlines and not diving deep into the market and Teslaís underlying performance, engineering and execution. I donít know why others feel the need to attribute othersí success to either luck or extreme risk taking. The risk with Tesla was no more than with any other tech growth stock, I would argue far less.

Thesis:

1) Are EVs, renewable energy and energy storage the future?
2) Is Tesla the leader in EVs and energy storage?

This is a laughable thesis.

Both of the answers can be yes and Tesla still could not be a good investment.

-Declining margins
-Stale product lineup with nothing new on the way until 2026 at the earliest
-EPS declined YoY in 2023 and early 2024 ests have it in the ballpark of 2022
-CEO who wants out unless he gets more shares
-the 10th year in a row of autonomous driving promises - it'll be solved soon!

The 35% vs 50% absolutely matters - how do you think future valuations are calculated?

What do you think Tesla will be worth in 2030 and why?

Tesla automotive margins were up Q4 over Q3. Tesla is decreasing prices to capture market share, squash competition and remains profitable at healthy margins, especially compared to every US and European legacy automaker that are still losing money on every EV they sell. Tesla energy margins expanded in 2023 and they grew energy revenue 50% YOY.

No company growing as fast as Tesla can sustain 50% YOY growth indefinitely. So, no, for a long term investor, 35% versus 50% doesnít really matter to me.

My investment thesis has never depended on FSD/robotaxi being solved. You can go back through this thread. Iíve always viewed that as gravy and thought Elon was overly optimistic. That said, there is evidence that v12 is vastly improved over v11, which coincides with Teslaís shift from thousands of lines to code to machine learning (vision based) as the basis for FSD.

Cybertruck is new and has over 2 million reservations. Gen 3 Model and new manufacturing process already in the works with initial production slated for late 2025.

Model Y was the best selling vehicle in the world of any kind in 2023.

Global EV sales continue to grow and Tesla is maintaining or growing market share across all markets they are in.

Teslas margins will expand as interest rates drop, likely this year, and auto loans become cheaper.

Tesla seizing market share in Europe.

VW, Ford, GM, and Stellantis scaling back EV plans because they canít get to scale and are hemorrhaging cash.

Musk didnít offer an ultimatum on shares. He doesnít want more shares for economic reasons and said the additional shares can be voting shares only. He wants to have a say on how very powerful AI tools are used down the road.

Tesla expanding to new countries, most recently Malaysia and Chile.

You are plain wrong on a number of fronts. Anyone can throw shade using the headlines of the day. Go back through this thread and thatís all youíll see. People throwing shade because 5 years ago, QOQ sales in Belgium were down 50%, Tesla is doomed!  All the while missing the forest for the trees.

We can throw numbers at each other all day.  EVs and energy storage are the future. Tesla is still the leader (outside of BYD in China) in EVs and Energy Storage. No need to complicate what is fundamentally simple.



ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2226 on: February 02, 2024, 02:14:05 PM »
I've made a 3,500% return on TSLA. I feel like that's a sign I should cash in, but its only 3.8% of my portfolio. What do you all think? I guess at this point I'm never going to lose money, so maybe just hold it until I need money (or forever and give it to my kid?).


I raise this question only because I'm not sure where something goes from an investment to speculation...I honestly don't think the company is worth 1 Trillion, but what do I know?

Tesla is a maturing company. Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative. Demand is on the rise, margins are increasing, new models are on the horizon, two new factories will start production in the next 1-3 months. The energy storage and grid services side of the business is just getting started. FSD is more speculative, but could be massively profitable if solved fully. I personally wonít be shedding any of my shares in the next 2-3 years at least.

Tesla is demand limited.
Margins have fallen drastically.
One new half-baked model is here...to the tune of a few hundred units so far.
Two new factories that are manufacturing well below capacity because they are demand limited.

This post was near TSLA's ATH.  It's fallen some 54% since. You absolutely should have sold.

Ford, GM, VW, Honda, Toyota, etc would love to be as ďdemand limitedĒ as Tesla, which sold 1.8 million pure BEVs profitably despite offering essentially 2 vehicles. Imagine how demand limited Tesla will be when the $25K Gen 3 vehicles come out next year. How many Mach-e did Ford sell last year? Wanna talk about demand constrained, yikes.

Cybertruck has over 2 million reservations. Perhaps youíre unaware but production ramps start slow and then speed up. The best selling car in the world, Tesla Model Y, started with ďa few hundred unitsĒ just a few years ago.

If Tesla wants to juice demand they can lower margins further, put even more squeeze to the rest of the industry and increase market share further. Itís called pricing control and Tesla is using it to destroy the ďthe competitionĒ while waiting for the interest rate environment to improve.
« Last Edit: February 02, 2024, 03:55:24 PM by ColoradoTribe »

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2227 on: February 02, 2024, 02:25:29 PM »
I am attracted to TSLA because of their high R&D spending.

I am wary of TSLA because of their extremely slow process of introducing new models. The model 3 is a design that was released 6 years ago and there has been relatively modest redesign or improvements since then. The Cybertruck was announced in 2019 but then didn't actually go on sale until over 4 years later, and at a price most of the public can't afford. Full self-driving is still not available.

Somewhere there is a breakdown where those R&D investments are not translating into rapid introduction of new products. Hyundai/Kia/Genesis have 6 EVs on sale in 2024, BMW has 3, and Tesla still only has 4 (S, 3, Y, and truck) after spending many times more money than their competitors developing those products. Maybe a new inexpensive car will come out of Tesla soon, but we can guarantee it's coming from their competitors.

Also, why are Teslas becoming notorious for quality control issues and cost of ownership issues if the company invested so much into these products? Where did the money go? Mars is actually not a silly answer.

No offense, but youíre not paying attention if you think the refreshed model 3 was a ďmodest redesign". Tesla Model 3 refresh (Highlander) was a significant overhaull. Not in appearance, though I think it improved there as well, but in some very meaningful ways. Might want to double check that.

Also, what does it say about Tesla that it can sell 1.8 million vehicles in 2023 while essentially offering two models for sale? Do you not believe Tesla will launch new, cheaper vehicles in the future? Do you think the Cybertruck will not reach its production capacity of 250k/yr in 2025?

Tesla vehicles have the highest safety ratings and highest customer satisfaction ratings of any mass produced car on the road, so youíre gonna have to show me something more than anecdotal evidence of widespread quality issues at Tesla above and beyond what is typical for the industry.

I remember when people said Tesla will:

never make a compelling EV.
never make a compelling EV at scale.
never make and sell a compelling EV at scale for a profit.
get crushed by legacy auto in 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 for sure.
« Last Edit: February 02, 2024, 03:52:48 PM by ColoradoTribe »

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2228 on: February 02, 2024, 02:29:15 PM »
Cybertruck has had over 2 million reservations.

* at $40k, 500 mile range.

Nope, 2 million reservations was confirmed during an interview with Teslaís lead CT engineer approximately two weeks after the delivery event and vehicle pricing release. Plenty of time for folks to cancel. Was also reported that reservation to order conversion rate has been good so far. If Tesla only converts half the current reservations, thatís still four years worth of production out of Austin once they hit the 250k/yr production capacity.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2229 on: February 02, 2024, 02:36:26 PM »
Quote
As of today, TSLA is down 49% from the date of your post

I, ColoradoTribe, hereby stand by my October 2021 statement and reaffirm that Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative.

As I spelled out above, my predictions about the company performance were spot on.

It also proves the stock price can lag the companyís performance significantly and for long periods. Just like the period weíre in right now, where Tesla continues to execute at a high level (as I laid out in my previous post) but the market is slow to catch up to reality.

How was a stock that lost 49% not considered risky even in retrospect?

The stock price is not the company! Itís only a loss if you panic and sell. Look at the underlying fundamentals, execution, market trends, quality of the engineering, hiring practices, the 30 billion in assets with virtually zero debt, the nearly 5 billion in FCF in 2023, a steady and growing stream of supercharger revenue, the entire industry adopting Teslaís charging standard (NACs) and signing on to use Teslaís charging network. The market can be highly irrational in the short to medium term, but those times offer the greatest buying opportunities.

I should add here, that prior to reaching FI, I never invested more than $5,000 in any individual stock. I own a significant chunk of VTI and I never had more in Tesla than I could afford to lose, as it should be when investing in any individual stock.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2230 on: February 02, 2024, 02:39:10 PM »
There's a fair point to be made about cherry picking time periods to make a case for or against TSLA. Clearly, those that invested pre-2021ish have done quite well, in particular anyone that sold before about 2022.

However, one of the fascinating things about long threads like this is the ability to go back and see analysis/predictions on the record. IMO, these are fair game.

I don't think I was too far off in my first post (I think?) to this thread, with concerns around TSLA's high PE ratio in an increasingly competitive EV market. In subsequent posts I quoted forecasts from Ford that proved wildly optimistic (like 200k Mach E units in 2023, but really more like 40k). I'm sure I was wrong in other areas as well... e.g. EV growth slowed more than many expected, including me.

@ColoradoTribe you've been very active on this thread making your case for TSLA based on your investing thesis. I'd like to draw attention to one of your posts from Oct 28, 2021 (emphasis added):

Tesla is a maturing company. Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative. Demand is on the rise, margins are increasing, new models are on the horizon, two new factories will start production in the next 1-3 months. The energy storage and grid services side of the business is just getting started. FSD is more speculative, but could be massively profitable if solved fully. I personally wonít be shedding any of my shares in the next 2-3 years at least.

As of today, TSLA is down 49% from the date of your post. For comparison, VTI in this same window is positive 2.6%. In fact TSLA has trailed VTI during this period with the exception of a couple weeks. Do you still stand by your analysis?

Still waiting to see what CAGR will be for the EV industry and TSLA in 2026.

The stock price performance short term has no bearing or connection to the company's performance. Do you think Tesla wasnít growing as a company when it traded sideways or worse from 2013 to 2019? Of course not! I invested in 2013 and had to gut out 6 years of lateral movement during a bull market. I was able to do that because I knew Tesla was executing on its plans all the while and my investment thesis was intact despite Wall Streetís ignorance.

Same is the case now. Look at my post above that you quoted. EV demand is on the rise to this day (check the YOY global sales of EVs) and donít fall for the failing OEM's (Ford, GM, VW) narrative that they canít sell their EVs because of "demand issues". They canít sell their EVs because they canít compete with Tesla (and Chinese EVs) on price and performance. The energy storage and grid services business is taking off, growing over 50% YOY while increasing margins. Two new megapack factories are under construction in China and NV. The Tesla semi factory is under construction in NV. New models have come to market (CyberTruck, refreshed M3) or are under development (Gen 3 platform) for 2025. Two new factories (Austin and Berlin) are cranking out vehicles. Model Y was the best selling car of any kind (BEV, ICE, etc.) in the world in 2023.

So, Tesla did or is doing everything I said they would be doing in my post from Oct 2019. I care about execution and trends, not short term noise and stock volatility. I waited six years for the first big jump and can wait another six if necessary for the next leg up when reality once again smacks WS in the face.

You didn't answer my question. Do you stand by your statement from Oct 2021 that "Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative"?

I didn't ask about 2013-2019 .. TSLA was indeed a good investment in that time period, which I have already acknowledged here.

You doubled down on your investing thesis rather than answer my direct question. Are we then to understand that you stand by your claim that TSLA was not a risky investment in 2021? If so, then those reading this thread should understand that you have a rather extreme tolerance for risk, perhaps risk seeking even, and so your thesis and analysis should be calibrated accordingly.

If, on the other hand, you do not stand by your claim, a simple "I was wrong" is sufficient. My intention isn't to gloat or rub it in your face. We all make predictions about an unknowable future, and we all get it wrong. What I'm looking for is what we as a community can learn from this, where did your analysis go wrong?

Good grief grand inquisitor, I thought it was pretty obvious from my response that I stand by my statement. If everything I predicted would happen has happened when I made that claim why wouldnít I stand by that statement? But here, if this helps; I, ColoradoTribe, hereby stand by my October 2021 statement and reaffirm that Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative.

As for the rest of your post, I assume youíre joking? As I spelled out above, my predictions about the company performance were spot on. I never made a prediction on stock price, because the stock price can be disconnected from reality for long periods of time, see 2013 - 2019 (and I donít care if you asked about that time period or not, its relevant to my long-term Tesla investment and my 7-figure gains). It also proves the stock price can lag the companyís performance significantly and for long periods. Just like the period weíre in right now, where Tesla continues to execute at a high level (as I laid out in my previous post) but the market is slow to catch up to reality.

What the community can learn from this is donít listen to poorly informed internet geniuses with axes to grind and no skin in the game. If they were considering an investment in Tesla and listened to you or your ilk when this thread started they missed out on 9X gains based on todayís close or 19X gains had they cashed out at the ATH a mere 3.5 years after this thread started.

The fact that you only have the bravado to come on this thread and spout off when the short term stock price is down tells me all I need to know. I on the other hand have stuck to my simple investment thesis since 2013 regardless of short-term noice, stock volatility, and meaningless distractions. It probably seems risky to those following the news headlines and not diving deep into the market and Teslaís underlying performance, engineering and execution. I donít know why others feel the need to attribute othersí success to either luck or extreme risk taking. The risk with Tesla was no more than with any other tech growth stock, I would argue far less.

Thesis:

1) Are EVs, renewable energy and energy storage the future?
2) Is Tesla the leader in EVs and energy storage?

Hostility and name calling weakens your argument.

You are unable to admit that you made an inaccurate forecast in Oct 2021. TSLA has consistently under-performed the market over this +2 year period, so it's not like I'm picking on a short term trend. Is it really such a big deal to concede this point? I'm trying to give you the opportunity to demonstrate a sliver of intellectual integrity.

Since you have a 7-figure gain in TSLA this means you have a lot riding on the success or failure of the company. This helps explain some of your responses. The fact that I don't directly own or short TSLA makes me a more objective outsider.

If the question "is Tesla a good investment?" can only evaluated based on your early investment then your thesis is specific to you alone and is irrelevant to the wider discussion on this thread.

I think the lesson for the community is: beware advice from those with a large financial and psychological stake in an investment.

Iím supposed to admit I was wrong, even though everything I said would come to pass in 2012 has come to fruition?

I think weíre done here.

GuitarStv

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2231 on: February 02, 2024, 02:45:22 PM »
Quote
As of today, TSLA is down 49% from the date of your post

I, ColoradoTribe, hereby stand by my October 2021 statement and reaffirm that Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative.

As I spelled out above, my predictions about the company performance were spot on.

It also proves the stock price can lag the companyís performance significantly and for long periods. Just like the period weíre in right now, where Tesla continues to execute at a high level (as I laid out in my previous post) but the market is slow to catch up to reality.

How was a stock that lost 49% not considered risky even in retrospect?

The stock price is not the company! Itís only a loss if you panic and sell. Look at the underlying fundamentals, execution, market trends, quality of the engineering, hiring practices, the 30 billion in assets with virtually zero debt, the nearly 5 billion in FCF in 2023, a steady and growing stream of supercharger revenue, the entire industry adopting Teslaís charging standard (NACs) and signing on to use Teslaís charging network. The market can be highly irrational in the short to medium term, but those times offer the greatest buying opportunities.

I should add here, that prior to reaching FI, I never invested more than $5,000 in any individual stock. I own a significant chunk of VTI and I never had more in Tesla than I could afford to lose, as it should be when investing in any individual stock.

The company is run by a megalomaniac who has pushed through a compensation package for himself that the board couldn't defend legally . . . and who has said that if he doesn't get a gigantic compensation package he's going to take important technology that the company has been developing away from it.

Don't get me wrong.  Tesla has a lot of cool stuff going for it.  The supercharger network is definitely part of it, large market share of EVs, good handle on debt, etc.  But it's hard to look at Musk's actions and not be a little worried.  His involvement is the single biggest negative for the company right now.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2232 on: February 02, 2024, 04:32:48 PM »
Quote
As of today, TSLA is down 49% from the date of your post

I, ColoradoTribe, hereby stand by my October 2021 statement and reaffirm that Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative.

As I spelled out above, my predictions about the company performance were spot on.

It also proves the stock price can lag the companyís performance significantly and for long periods. Just like the period weíre in right now, where Tesla continues to execute at a high level (as I laid out in my previous post) but the market is slow to catch up to reality.

How was a stock that lost 49% not considered risky even in retrospect?

Because the company is not the stock price. Unless one is forced to sell, the short to medium term stock price volatility is meaningless, only the long term execution matters. If Tesla the company is performing and Iím a long-term investor, the risk is greatly reduced.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2233 on: February 02, 2024, 04:57:31 PM »
I, ColoradoTribe, hereby stand by my October 2021 statement and reaffirm that Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative.

And do you solemnly swear.....

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2234 on: February 02, 2024, 08:53:12 PM »
Quote
As of today, TSLA is down 49% from the date of your post

I, ColoradoTribe, hereby stand by my October 2021 statement and reaffirm that Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative.

As I spelled out above, my predictions about the company performance were spot on.

It also proves the stock price can lag the companyís performance significantly and for long periods. Just like the period weíre in right now, where Tesla continues to execute at a high level (as I laid out in my previous post) but the market is slow to catch up to reality.

How was a stock that lost 49% not considered risky even in retrospect?

The stock price is not the company! Itís only a loss if you panic and sell. Look at the underlying fundamentals, execution, market trends, quality of the engineering, hiring practices, the 30 billion in assets with virtually zero debt, the nearly 5 billion in FCF in 2023, a steady and growing stream of supercharger revenue, the entire industry adopting Teslaís charging standard (NACs) and signing on to use Teslaís charging network. The market can be highly irrational in the short to medium term, but those times offer the greatest buying opportunities.

I should add here, that prior to reaching FI, I never invested more than $5,000 in any individual stock. I own a significant chunk of VTI and I never had more in Tesla than I could afford to lose, as it should be when investing in any individual stock.

The company is run by a megalomaniac who has pushed through a compensation package for himself that the board couldn't defend legally . . . and who has said that if he doesn't get a gigantic compensation package he's going to take important technology that the company has been developing away from it.

Don't get me wrong.  Tesla has a lot of cool stuff going for it.  The supercharger network is definitely part of it, large market share of EVs, good handle on debt, etc.  But it's hard to look at Musk's actions and not be a little worried.  His involvement is the single biggest negative for the company right now.

I think so too. It is a worry.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2235 on: February 02, 2024, 11:24:09 PM »
I, ColoradoTribe, hereby stand by my October 2021 statement and reaffirm that Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative.

And do you solemnly swear.....

With my right hand on a stack of bibles.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2236 on: February 03, 2024, 07:23:15 AM »
...
The company is run by a megalomaniac who has pushed through a compensation package for himself that the board couldn't defend legally . . . and who has said that if he doesn't get a gigantic compensation package he's going to take important technology that the company has been developing away from it.

Don't get me wrong.  Tesla has a lot of cool stuff going for it.  The supercharger network is definitely part of it, large market share of EVs, good handle on debt, etc.  But it's hard to look at Musk's actions and not be a little worried.  His involvement is the single biggest negative for the company right now.
Elon Musk has an inflated sense of importance... while everyone talks about him? (*)

Mr Musk was paid $56 billion to increase $TSLA's market cap by $600 billion.  I suggest he start a hedge fund to get paid 20%, instead of getting refused 12%.

"Under the 10-year deal, Musk was eligible to win an options tranche every time Tesla hit a series of up to 12 targets. Those targets were tied to increases in Tesla's market capitalization in $50 billion increments, and to aggressive hurdles for revenue and EBITDA growth. Musk went on to hit all 12 targets, and the options are now worth $51 billion, accounting for the cost to Musk to exercise them. He still owns the options."
https://www.reuters.com/business/elon-musks-unfathomable-56-billion-tesla-pay-package-2024-01-31


(*)
"People with megalomania have delusional fantasies that they are more relevant (important) or powerful than they truly are."
https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megalomania

He's one of the richest people in the world, so "powerful" doesn't seem like a delusion. The man who revolutionized the car and rocket industries is important - that's not a delusion.  A thread about Tesla seems an odd place to make the case that Elon Musk isn't important.

FINate

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2237 on: February 03, 2024, 09:29:25 AM »
Mr Musk was paid $56 billion to increase $TSLA's market cap by $600 billion.  I suggest he start a hedge fund to get paid 20%, instead of getting refused 12%.

"Under the 10-year deal, Musk was eligible to win an options tranche every time Tesla hit a series of up to 12 targets. Those targets were tied to increases in Tesla's market capitalization in $50 billion increments, and to aggressive hurdles for revenue and EBITDA growth. Musk went on to hit all 12 targets, and the options are now worth $51 billion, accounting for the cost to Musk to exercise them. He still owns the options."
https://www.reuters.com/business/elon-musks-unfathomable-56-billion-tesla-pay-package-2024-01-31

Musk and his supporters have tried to spin the narrative of an activist judge taking away his compensation. I would just encourage folks to read the ruling and/or hear from legal experts that can explain more of the details of the case. This is a fairly narrow ruling, by a highly regarded and experienced judge, backed by lots of precedent, and specific to Tesla and Musk. It is centered on corporate governance, which Musk is now learning has real consequences. Musk's self-dealing is the only reason the court got involved in his compensation, and the proxy vote approving his pay was ruled invalid only because the proxy materials misled stockholders. None of this would have been an issue if Musk negotiated his pay package with an independent board.

waltworks

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2238 on: February 03, 2024, 09:41:07 AM »
Yes, the ruling has to do with violating rules about corporate governance, not the absolute amount of compensation. In theory the situation would be no different if his pay has been $100 - the problems involved not negotiating with a truly independent board and misleading stockholders.

That said I think Musk being gone would probably be good for Tesla at this point.

-W

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2239 on: February 03, 2024, 10:36:44 AM »


Hostility and name calling weakens your argument.



This statement is very odd to me to read. Are you not aware of how hostile, demanding, and impolite your posts here are? I am genuinely confused and wondering if you are being deliberately offensive or just can't read your own tone on the posts.
« Last Edit: February 03, 2024, 10:39:50 AM by mistymoney »

FINate

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2240 on: February 03, 2024, 10:47:02 AM »


Hostility and name calling weakens your argument.



This statement is very odd to me to read. Are you not aware of how hostile, demanding, and impolite your posts here are? I am genuinely confused and wondering if you are being deliberately offensive or just can't read your own tone on the posts.

Thanks for the feedback. Appreciate it and apologize for my blindspots. Would you be willing to provide specific quotes/examples to help me understand. For the sake of ColoradoTribe let me be clear that I was referring to his use of grand Inquisitor and poorly informed Internet genius, which imo  is getting into name calling.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2241 on: February 03, 2024, 11:16:45 AM »


Hostility and name calling weakens your argument.



This statement is very odd to me to read. Are you not aware of how hostile, demanding, and impolite your posts here are? I am genuinely confused and wondering if you are being deliberately offensive or just can't read your own tone on the posts.

Thanks for the feedback. Appreciate it and apologize for my blindspots. Would you be willing to provide specific quotes/examples to help me understand. For the sake of ColoradoTribe let me be clear that I was referring to his use of grand Inquisitor and poorly informed Internet genius, which imo  is getting into name calling.

yes, and I found that to be a mild response to your posts. I am glad to see you were not intending to be the way it came across to me, so I will go through and the posts and try to illustrate what I thought was off for the examples you would like.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2242 on: February 03, 2024, 11:33:47 AM »
There's a fair point to be made about cherry picking time periods to make a case for or against TSLA. Clearly, those that invested pre-2021ish have done quite well, in particular anyone that sold before about 2022.

However, one of the fascinating things about long threads like this is the ability to go back and see analysis/predictions on the record. IMO, these are fair game.

I don't think I was too far off in my first post (I think?) to this thread, with concerns around TSLA's high PE ratio in an increasingly competitive EV market. In subsequent posts I quoted forecasts from Ford that proved wildly optimistic (like 200k Mach E units in 2023, but really more like 40k). I'm sure I was wrong in other areas as well... e.g. EV growth slowed more than many expected, including me.

@ColoradoTribe you've been very active on this thread making your case for TSLA based on your investing thesis. I'd like to draw attention to one of your posts from Oct 28, 2021 (emphasis added):

Tesla is a maturing company. Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative. Demand is on the rise, margins are increasing, new models are on the horizon, two new factories will start production in the next 1-3 months. The energy storage and grid services side of the business is just getting started. FSD is more speculative, but could be massively profitable if solved fully. I personally wonít be shedding any of my shares in the next 2-3 years at least.

As of today, TSLA is down 49% from the date of your post. For comparison, VTI in this same window is positive 2.6%. In fact TSLA has trailed VTI during this period with the exception of a couple weeks. Do you still stand by your analysis?

Still waiting to see what CAGR will be for the EV industry and TSLA in 2026.

The stock price performance short term has no bearing or connection to the company's performance. Do you think Tesla wasnít growing as a company when it traded sideways or worse from 2013 to 2019? Of course not! I invested in 2013 and had to gut out 6 years of lateral movement during a bull market. I was able to do that because I knew Tesla was executing on its plans all the while and my investment thesis was intact despite Wall Streetís ignorance.

Same is the case now. Look at my post above that you quoted. EV demand is on the rise to this day (check the YOY global sales of EVs) and donít fall for the failing OEM's (Ford, GM, VW) narrative that they canít sell their EVs because of "demand issues". They canít sell their EVs because they canít compete with Tesla (and Chinese EVs) on price and performance. The energy storage and grid services business is taking off, growing over 50% YOY while increasing margins. Two new megapack factories are under construction in China and NV. The Tesla semi factory is under construction in NV. New models have come to market (CyberTruck, refreshed M3) or are under development (Gen 3 platform) for 2025. Two new factories (Austin and Berlin) are cranking out vehicles. Model Y was the best selling car of any kind (BEV, ICE, etc.) in the world in 2023.

So, Tesla did or is doing everything I said they would be doing in my post from Oct 2019. I care about execution and trends, not short term noise and stock volatility. I waited six years for the first big jump and can wait another six if necessary for the next leg up when reality once again smacks WS in the face.

You didn't answer my question. Do you stand by your statement from Oct 2021 that "Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative"?

I didn't ask about 2013-2019 .. TSLA was indeed a good investment in that time period, which I have already acknowledged here.

You doubled down on your investing thesis rather than answer my direct question. Are we then to understand that you stand by your claim that TSLA was not a risky investment in 2021? If so, then those reading this thread should understand that you have a rather extreme tolerance for risk, perhaps risk seeking even, and so your thesis and analysis should be calibrated accordingly.

If, on the other hand, you do not stand by your claim, a simple "I was wrong" is sufficient. My intention isn't to gloat or rub it in your face. We all make predictions about an unknowable future, and we all get it wrong. What I'm looking for is what we as a community can learn from this, where did your analysis go wrong?

To me this read like an attoney questioning a hostile witness (or a perp!) on the stand, rather than casual converstion on the internet.

My underlying assumption is that no one is owed any information from anyone here! So to consistently and repeatedly demand that someone answers your questions in a format that you desire strikes me as rude and aggressive.

In General, Coloradotribe feels that Tesla is a good company with positive prospects and I think that is pretty clear. So to my reading, I didn't even see a point to the questions, because I already knew the answer without a "badgering the witness" approach. I also felt that from Coloradotribe's perspective, he was focused on company prospects long term rather than the stock price whereas you were only focused on stock price.

Which I think is fine! Both perspectives have value depending on someone's POV. But it seemed that you wouldn't acknowledge this difference and only wanted to focus on stock price as an indicator of investment and wouldn't allow the other POV into the discourse. Which is a bit controlling when you are trying to have a convesation with someone. I think it was clear that stock price fluctuations weren't a concern to CT, and that should have been enough for the conversation.


waltworks

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2243 on: February 03, 2024, 12:37:33 PM »
Dude, it's a debate. "You didn't answer my question" is perfectly acceptable, I would not be upset of offended if someone said that to me IRL or on the forum.

If someone said "you're wrong because you're stupid" that would pretty obviously be outside of the forum etiquette.

I mean, if we're just registering our opinions here, great! But most of us are interested in digging into each other's positions to see what's useful (or not) about a dissenting opinion.

If you don't like that, I guess don't participate in the forum?

-W

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2244 on: February 03, 2024, 05:02:15 PM »
Dude, it's a debate. "You didn't answer my question" is perfectly acceptable, I would not be upset of offended if someone said that to me IRL or on the forum.

If someone said "you're wrong because you're stupid" that would pretty obviously be outside of the forum etiquette.

I mean, if we're just registering our opinions here, great! But most of us are interested in digging into each other's positions to see what's useful (or not) about a dissenting opinion.

If you don't like that, I guess don't participate in the forum?

-W

I was asked. you could take your own advice, btw.

waltworks

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2245 on: February 03, 2024, 06:34:28 PM »
Take my own advice on what?

-W

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2246 on: February 03, 2024, 09:36:42 PM »
If you don't like that, I guess don't participate in the forum?


ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2247 on: February 03, 2024, 10:05:14 PM »
There's a fair point to be made about cherry picking time periods to make a case for or against TSLA. Clearly, those that invested pre-2021ish have done quite well, in particular anyone that sold before about 2022.

However, one of the fascinating things about long threads like this is the ability to go back and see analysis/predictions on the record. IMO, these are fair game.

I don't think I was too far off in my first post (I think?) to this thread, with concerns around TSLA's high PE ratio in an increasingly competitive EV market. In subsequent posts I quoted forecasts from Ford that proved wildly optimistic (like 200k Mach E units in 2023, but really more like 40k). I'm sure I was wrong in other areas as well... e.g. EV growth slowed more than many expected, including me.

@ColoradoTribe you've been very active on this thread making your case for TSLA based on your investing thesis. I'd like to draw attention to one of your posts from Oct 28, 2021 (emphasis added):

Tesla is a maturing company. Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative. Demand is on the rise, margins are increasing, new models are on the horizon, two new factories will start production in the next 1-3 months. The energy storage and grid services side of the business is just getting started. FSD is more speculative, but could be massively profitable if solved fully. I personally wonít be shedding any of my shares in the next 2-3 years at least.

As of today, TSLA is down 49% from the date of your post. For comparison, VTI in this same window is positive 2.6%. In fact TSLA has trailed VTI during this period with the exception of a couple weeks. Do you still stand by your analysis?

Still waiting to see what CAGR will be for the EV industry and TSLA in 2026.

The stock price performance short term has no bearing or connection to the company's performance. Do you think Tesla wasnít growing as a company when it traded sideways or worse from 2013 to 2019? Of course not! I invested in 2013 and had to gut out 6 years of lateral movement during a bull market. I was able to do that because I knew Tesla was executing on its plans all the while and my investment thesis was intact despite Wall Streetís ignorance.

Same is the case now. Look at my post above that you quoted. EV demand is on the rise to this day (check the YOY global sales of EVs) and donít fall for the failing OEM's (Ford, GM, VW) narrative that they canít sell their EVs because of "demand issues". They canít sell their EVs because they canít compete with Tesla (and Chinese EVs) on price and performance. The energy storage and grid services business is taking off, growing over 50% YOY while increasing margins. Two new megapack factories are under construction in China and NV. The Tesla semi factory is under construction in NV. New models have come to market (CyberTruck, refreshed M3) or are under development (Gen 3 platform) for 2025. Two new factories (Austin and Berlin) are cranking out vehicles. Model Y was the best selling car of any kind (BEV, ICE, etc.) in the world in 2023.

So, Tesla did or is doing everything I said they would be doing in my post from Oct 2019. I care about execution and trends, not short term noise and stock volatility. I waited six years for the first big jump and can wait another six if necessary for the next leg up when reality once again smacks WS in the face.

You didn't answer my question. Do you stand by your statement from Oct 2021 that "Tesla as an investment has never been less risky or speculative"?

I didn't ask about 2013-2019 .. TSLA was indeed a good investment in that time period, which I have already acknowledged here.

You doubled down on your investing thesis rather than answer my direct question. Are we then to understand that you stand by your claim that TSLA was not a risky investment in 2021? If so, then those reading this thread should understand that you have a rather extreme tolerance for risk, perhaps risk seeking even, and so your thesis and analysis should be calibrated accordingly.

If, on the other hand, you do not stand by your claim, a simple "I was wrong" is sufficient. My intention isn't to gloat or rub it in your face. We all make predictions about an unknowable future, and we all get it wrong. What I'm looking for is what we as a community can learn from this, where did your analysis go wrong?

To me this read like an attoney questioning a hostile witness (or a perp!) on the stand, rather than casual converstion on the internet.

My underlying assumption is that no one is owed any information from anyone here! So to consistently and repeatedly demand that someone answers your questions in a format that you desire strikes me as rude and aggressive.

In General, Coloradotribe feels that Tesla is a good company with positive prospects and I think that is pretty clear. So to my reading, I didn't even see a point to the questions, because I already knew the answer without a "badgering the witness" approach. I also felt that from Coloradotribe's perspective, he was focused on company prospects long term rather than the stock price whereas you were only focused on stock price.

Which I think is fine! Both perspectives have value depending on someone's POV. But it seemed that you wouldn't acknowledge this difference and only wanted to focus on stock price as an indicator of investment and wouldn't allow the other POV into the discourse. Which is a bit controlling when you are trying to have a convesation with someone. I think it was clear that stock price fluctuations weren't a concern to CT, and that should have been enough for the conversation.

FWIW, my admittedly terse response to FINRate is a reflection of the overall tone of his post and the sections bolded by Misty above. I did answer his/her question in my response even though I was under no obligation. A second post from FINrate demanding a response to his/her question like they were entitled to an answer satisfactory to them was off-putting for sure. I donít care if others see Tesla differently. Iíve been very consistent in my approach and I donít get emotional based on stock price movement or even care about the short term stock price movements, so understand my frustration when the bears jump on here every time the SP takes a dip to take a victory lap (even though Tesla is still 9X from the start of this thread), while in my view ignoring the company's performance and execution.
« Last Edit: February 03, 2024, 10:22:48 PM by ColoradoTribe »

waltworks

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2248 on: February 04, 2024, 07:28:05 AM »
If you don't like that, I guess don't participate in the forum?


Sure, but I have no problem with vigorous debate, so there is no reason for me not to.

Obviously I have failed to communicate something here.

-W

FINate

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2249 on: February 04, 2024, 08:17:00 AM »
Thanks @mistymoney and @ColoradoTribe for providing feedback backed with an example for me to consider. Tone is very difficult to communicate on a forum, so I can see how my posts could be seen as hostile. I want to be clear, that's not my intention. I will sincerely try to be more aware of this in the future.

That said, one of the main things I appreciate about this forum is how folks generally hash out disagreements while respectfully focusing on the central arguments. It's worth noting the forum rules here: https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/forum-information-faqs/forum-rules/

Quote
That includes, but is not limited to:
1. Don't be a jerk.
2. Attack an argument, not a person.
3. Your posts must not break any laws.
4. Be respectful of the site and other members.
5. No spam.
6. Use good taste.  (See example below, 5/11/15.)

The graph of Graham's Hierarchy of Disagreement is worth a glance.



I really do try to stay at near the top of this hierarchy as much as possible. My response to ColoradoTribe, essentially responding to his tone, is further down the hierarchy than I'd like. I'm not perfect, I make mistakes, which is why I appreciate constructive feedback.

This is why I built a line of reasoning around a direct quote from ColoradoTribe and then pushed for a clear and direct response on this specific quote. Other than finding ways to soften the tone, I don't know that I would change the substance of what I wrote. Obviously ColoradoTribe is not in a court of law and is free to walk away at any point, but I'm glad they didn't and remained engaged in the conversation. A big part of disagreement is understanding the other side's point of view. In this case, that ColoradoTribe, even with the benefit of hindsight, does not consider TSLA circa 2021Q4 a risky investment. That's surprising to me (and apparently others on this thread), so thanks for the direct response.

Some feedback for ColoradoTribe: Calling me "grand inquisitor" likely falls in (or very near) ad hominem territory ("Attacks the characteristics or authority of the writer without addressing the substance of the argument."). And "poorly informed internet geniuses" is likely getting into name calling.

One final thought: This thread is essentially a multi-year disagreement over TSLA. I have my opinion, others have theirs... and that's fine. If TSLA was only up and to the right over the past two years I would expect the bulls to do victory laps, nothing wrong with that. But that's not what has happened with TSLA. This isn't just about stock price, but also 2023Q4 results, Musk's comp package, and so many other topics. There's a lot to talk about, so don't be surprised when those bearish on TSLA post here. That's part of the deal.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!