Author Topic: Is Tesla a good investment?  (Read 417379 times)

GuitarStv

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1650 on: January 16, 2023, 07:41:23 AM »
Nah, competition is what it is. Not every EV maker will survive but plenty of ones (just like Tesla) will lose money for a few years before they get their costs/process down to where they're making money.

Consumers win, ain't capitalism great?

-W

Wait, Tesla is losing money?  Aren't they the most profitable car company in the world(per car) by a huge margin?

Nope.

Toyota is the most profitable - 19.1 billion in profit in 2022.

Tesla is the most highly valued car company by stock price.  The come in around 9th as far as profits at 3.3 billion in 2022, behind Peugeot, SAIC motors, Volvo, Honda, BMW, GM, Volkswagen and Toyota.

Tesla made that much just in 3q.

Yes, thank you.  I mis-read the link and grabbed q3 profits as yearly.

Tesla in 2022:
Q1 - 5.4 (https://www.counterpointresearch.com/tesla-revenue-reached-record-high-of-18-8-billion-during-q1-2022/)
Q2 - 4.2 (https://mercomindia.com/teslas-revenue-up-16-93-billion-q2-2022)
Q3 - 3.3 (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/19/tesla-tsla-earnings-q3-2022-.html)
Q4 - Not reported yet

Q4 of 2021 was 2.32 billion in profit though (https://techcrunch.com/2022/01/26/tesla-closes-2021-on-a-high-note-by-besting-expectations-in-q4/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAHfUxhqdF7gYoOvRb9BOn4Vw0UFAKtswWlDhF7BWBPPNmlfrAdvKkMhD6e5ByQdiSjkL5HpReZAG-CuUACQ0-EEkNTojkD00O1qgRataNO6pu7mDaCqJlMLu0X--8045zSf9odMz4N3hM9-vcTAn479nOeIxkN9rvWMS8mGWKWTR#:~:text=In%20the%20final%20three%20months,company%20earned%20%242.54%20per%20share.)

So for the past four quarters that have been reported, Tesla has a profit of about 15 billion - substantially more than I mistakenly claimed.  Still not competing with Toyota, but much higher that 3.3 billion obviously.


Just another example of how the typical Tesla bear has no clue what they are talking about.

I'm not a 'Tesla bear' or 'Tesla bro'.  I don't invest in car companies, and have no horse in this race at all.  I only looked it up out of curiosity.

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1651 on: January 16, 2023, 10:49:16 AM »
Was it one month ago or two months ago when I said this would happen in response to competition, and was corrected by multiple people who explained that price cuts would never happen because Tesla products are so different and because demand is a bottomless pit?
Neither. It's a strawman you created.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1652 on: January 16, 2023, 02:05:01 PM »
Well - I am a bit miffed about the big, unexpected price cut after buying in dec, lol!

miffed I say!

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1653 on: January 17, 2023, 02:20:38 PM »
https://doctorow.medium.com/the-true-genius-of-tech-leaders-46d6e3439989

Based on this perspective, for Tesla to continue dominating the EV market they'd need to quickly acquire and then employ or destroy new technologies to prevent others from using them, or use capital markets to underprice their competitors. Neither seems particularly plausible in the car construction heavy industry, but maybe Tesla's price cuts (which seem to be their entire margin) suggest they are willing to sacrifice profits in order to undercut competitors. Except they still aren't undercutting competitors.

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1654 on: January 17, 2023, 04:31:33 PM »
https://doctorow.medium.com/the-true-genius-of-tech-leaders-46d6e3439989
Based on this perspective, for Tesla to continue dominating the EV market they'd need to quickly acquire and then employ or destroy new technologies to prevent others from using them, or use capital markets to underprice their competitors. Neither seems particularly plausible in the car construction heavy industry,

That's an interesting interpretation of the article. It doesn't strike me as particularly accurate.

Regarding the last bit: Remind me again which other car manufacturer is using frame castings as large as Tesla does? Half the frame in each casting.

PDXTabs

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ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1656 on: January 19, 2023, 10:10:04 AM »
Lengthy, but a ton of useful information and discussion. Speaks directly to EV competition, Tesla price cuts, and forward looking EV market.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vx-BpSCypjU


ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1657 on: January 19, 2023, 10:23:19 AM »
https://doctorow.medium.com/the-true-genius-of-tech-leaders-46d6e3439989
Based on this perspective, for Tesla to continue dominating the EV market they'd need to quickly acquire and then employ or destroy new technologies to prevent others from using them, or use capital markets to underprice their competitors. Neither seems particularly plausible in the car construction heavy industry,

That's an interesting interpretation of the article. It doesn't strike me as particularly accurate.

Regarding the last bit: Remind me again which other car manufacturer is using frame castings as large as Tesla does? Half the frame in each casting.
I have no clue about how factories construct car frames because I am not an engineer in that niche. Similarly, I have no information about what each factory in the US, Europe, China, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Mexico, etc. is doing, or their relative cost advantages compared to each other. All you need to know is that it's clear business is less of a predictable meritocracy than most of us believe. The best product does not always succeed, the best strategies are often sunk by luck, the hardest working people are not always the most competent and vice versa.

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1658 on: January 19, 2023, 11:11:18 AM »
https://doctorow.medium.com/the-true-genius-of-tech-leaders-46d6e3439989

Based on this perspective, for Tesla to continue dominating the EV market they'd need to quickly acquire and then employ or destroy new technologies to prevent others from using them, or use capital markets to underprice their competitors. Neither seems particularly plausible in the car construction heavy industry, but maybe Tesla's price cuts (which seem to be their entire margin) suggest they are willing to sacrifice profits in order to undercut competitors. Except they still aren't undercutting competitors.

What is your math on the cuts being their entire margin?

DarkandStormy

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1659 on: January 19, 2023, 12:44:48 PM »
https://doctorow.medium.com/the-true-genius-of-tech-leaders-46d6e3439989

Based on this perspective, for Tesla to continue dominating the EV market they'd need to quickly acquire and then employ or destroy new technologies to prevent others from using them, or use capital markets to underprice their competitors. Neither seems particularly plausible in the car construction heavy industry, but maybe Tesla's price cuts (which seem to be their entire margin) suggest they are willing to sacrifice profits in order to undercut competitors. Except they still aren't undercutting competitors.

What is your math on the cuts being their entire margin?

In the first 9 months of 2022, Tesla earned ~$9bn in net income on ~900k deliveries.  Not sure which margin is being referenced, but they earned a net profit of about $10k per car delivered.

Now, how much did they just slash prices across their lineup?

https://tesladata.mattjung.net/total-new-inventory/

Also, there does not appear to have been a huge wave of demand a week after these cuts.  If you go to their website in the U.S., you can get almost any model (any model except the dual motor Model X, to be specific) with an estimated delivery date before April.  This is despite Tesla's best efforts to get consumers to buy before March 31st due to the unclear nature of the IRA tax credit after that date.

Terminal demand in the 2nd half of 2022 was ~180k/quarter at the old prices.  They *had* to cut prices because supply was vastly outpacing demand.  Econ 101 stuff.  So much for that "unlimited demand" the most demented bulls liked to tout.

It's still very impressive what they've done - starting an EV company from scratch and getting to marginally profitable in ~15 years, even if some of their financial statements have some serious question marks if you dig into them.  That doesn't mean they should be valued as a $1 trillion company.

2023 will be interesting, for sure.  The company is trying to scale production to, what, 2m (or more) units for the year, but they appear to have a demand issue getting there.  The CEO has said they'll go flat to even negative margins if they have to.  Their product offering is stale, save for the Cybertruck if they ever figure out how to manufacture it.  Supposedly that starts later this year but I have a feeling it won't go smoothly.  Then, of course, there's the question of where these 1m robotaxis are that were supposed to be here in 2020 "for sure."

With the price cuts, it's certainly possible that revenues and EPS go negative QoQ when they report Q1 results.  For a 50% growth company, I'll be curious to see how the market reacts.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1660 on: January 19, 2023, 01:09:36 PM »
https://doctorow.medium.com/the-true-genius-of-tech-leaders-46d6e3439989

Based on this perspective, for Tesla to continue dominating the EV market they'd need to quickly acquire and then employ or destroy new technologies to prevent others from using them, or use capital markets to underprice their competitors. Neither seems particularly plausible in the car construction heavy industry, but maybe Tesla's price cuts (which seem to be their entire margin) suggest they are willing to sacrifice profits in order to undercut competitors. Except they still aren't undercutting competitors.

What is your math on the cuts being their entire margin?

In the first 9 months of 2022, Tesla earned ~$9bn in net income on ~900k deliveries.  Not sure which margin is being referenced, but they earned a net profit of about $10k per car delivered.

Now, how much did they just slash prices across their lineup?

https://tesladata.mattjung.net/total-new-inventory/

Also, there does not appear to have been a huge wave of demand a week after these cuts.  If you go to their website in the U.S., you can get almost any model (any model except the dual motor Model X, to be specific) with an estimated delivery date before April.  This is despite Tesla's best efforts to get consumers to buy before March 31st due to the unclear nature of the IRA tax credit after that date.

Terminal demand in the 2nd half of 2022 was ~180k/quarter at the old prices.  They *had* to cut prices because supply was vastly outpacing demand.  Econ 101 stuff.  So much for that "unlimited demand" the most demented bulls liked to tout.

It's still very impressive what they've done - starting an EV company from scratch and getting to marginally profitable in ~15 years, even if some of their financial statements have some serious question marks if you dig into them.  That doesn't mean they should be valued as a $1 trillion company.

2023 will be interesting, for sure.  The company is trying to scale production to, what, 2m (or more) units for the year, but they appear to have a demand issue getting there.  The CEO has said they'll go flat to even negative margins if they have to.  Their product offering is stale, save for the Cybertruck if they ever figure out how to manufacture it.  Supposedly that starts later this year but I have a feeling it won't go smoothly.  Then, of course, there's the question of where these 1m robotaxis are that were supposed to be here in 2020 "for sure."

With the price cuts, it's certainly possible that revenues and EPS go negative QoQ when they report Q1 results.  For a 50% growth company, I'll be curious to see how the market reacts.

The automotive teardown expert interviewed in the video I posted above estimates Tesla margins (across all variants) to be at 20% after the price cuts. No one outside of Tesla is in a better position to assess Tesla’s COGS currently. While the sale price is transparent, the COGS are constantly changing, especially as the new factories ramp. Whereas, Tesla can drop 10% in margin and still be profitable, the competition has yet to turn a profit on their EVs and lowering prices would increase losses (not profit) for them. Tesla has signaled that they are willing to sacrifice margin (short term profit) for market share. I highly recommend watching the interview.

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1661 on: January 19, 2023, 03:54:02 PM »
@ColoradoTribe It was a good interview. I watched it.

What is your math on the cuts being their entire margin?


In the first 9 months of 2022, Tesla earned ~$9bn in net income on ~900k deliveries.  Not sure which margin is being referenced, but they earned a net profit of about $10k per car delivered.

Now, how much did they just slash prices across their lineup?

https://tesladata.mattjung.net/total-new-inventory/

I like the inventory tracker.

I think you may be missing some components in that calculation. It assumes COGS/unit is static no matter the volume and operating costs increase proportionally with volume. That doesn't happen.

We know they delivered 405,278 units in Q4. We also know Berlin and Texas factories started production in Q2 of 2022 inflating COGS in the last few quarters. After the price cuts, analysts revised their down their estimates to $4.54 EPS with 1.855m deliveries in 2023. That's $8,443 net profit per car. 15% decline compared to before the price cuts.

Terminal demand in the 2nd half of 2022 was ~180k/quarter at the old prices.  They *had* to cut prices because supply was vastly outpacing demand.  Econ 101 stuff.  So much for that "unlimited demand" the most demented bulls liked to tout.

Terminal demand 180,000 cars/quarter? I don't understand that number. Can you elaborate?


DarkandStormy

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1662 on: January 19, 2023, 04:44:45 PM »
@ColoradoTribe It was a good interview. I watched it.

What is your math on the cuts being their entire margin?


In the first 9 months of 2022, Tesla earned ~$9bn in net income on ~900k deliveries.  Not sure which margin is being referenced, but they earned a net profit of about $10k per car delivered.

Now, how much did they just slash prices across their lineup?

https://tesladata.mattjung.net/total-new-inventory/

I like the inventory tracker.

I think you may be missing some components in that calculation. It assumes COGS/unit is static no matter the volume and operating costs increase proportionally with volume. That doesn't happen.

We know they delivered 405,278 units in Q4. We also know Berlin and Texas factories started production in Q2 of 2022 inflating COGS in the last few quarters. After the price cuts, analysts revised their down their estimates to $4.54 EPS with 1.855m deliveries in 2023. That's $8,443 net profit per car. 15% decline compared to before the price cuts.

Terminal demand in the 2nd half of 2022 was ~180k/quarter at the old prices.  They *had* to cut prices because supply was vastly outpacing demand.  Econ 101 stuff.  So much for that "unlimited demand" the most demented bulls liked to tout.

Terminal demand 180,000 cars/quarter? I don't understand that number. Can you elaborate?

a) not sure analyst estimates are the best way to forecast net profit per vehicle.  '23 could be a wild year and a lot can change.  sure, COGS/unit isn't static, but it didn't drop $4-5k overnight like some bulls wants to believe.

b) https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1614991977367625729

This guy is fairly accurate with his data.  It shows Tesla's global backlog declining by ~400k in the 2nd half of 2022.  Tesla sold ~750k units in the 2nd half of the year (I'm rounding up), and up to 400k of those were placed before the 2nd half of the year.  That means just 350k orders were placed from June-December.  Of course, you could slap on a 10% cancellation rate of pre-existing orders and say they only sold 360k from their backlog and that'd push orders up to 390k in the 2nd half of the year.  So somewhere on the order of 175k-190k quarterly order rate.

And personally, I think that's about right for a niche, BMW-type of automaker that sells mostly above the $50k price point and basically sells just 1.5 models (the Y which is mostly borrowed from the 3 and the 3...S/X are just super niche products without much more than 25k/quarter demand rate combined).  Without going down market and/or expanding their product offering, that seems right to me.  Now, of course, their goal is rapid growth so they'll have to drop prices to expand their TAM and/or start offering more than one new model every 3 years.

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1663 on: January 19, 2023, 06:14:17 PM »
@ColoradoTribe It was a good interview. I watched it.

What is your math on the cuts being their entire margin?


In the first 9 months of 2022, Tesla earned ~$9bn in net income on ~900k deliveries.  Not sure which margin is being referenced, but they earned a net profit of about $10k per car delivered.

Now, how much did they just slash prices across their lineup?

https://tesladata.mattjung.net/total-new-inventory/

I like the inventory tracker.

I think you may be missing some components in that calculation. It assumes COGS/unit is static no matter the volume and operating costs increase proportionally with volume. That doesn't happen.

We know they delivered 405,278 units in Q4. We also know Berlin and Texas factories started production in Q2 of 2022 inflating COGS in the last few quarters. After the price cuts, analysts revised their down their estimates to $4.54 EPS with 1.855m deliveries in 2023. That's $8,443 net profit per car. 15% decline compared to before the price cuts.

Terminal demand in the 2nd half of 2022 was ~180k/quarter at the old prices.  They *had* to cut prices because supply was vastly outpacing demand.  Econ 101 stuff.  So much for that "unlimited demand" the most demented bulls liked to tout.

Terminal demand 180,000 cars/quarter? I don't understand that number. Can you elaborate?

a) not sure analyst estimates are the best way to forecast net profit per vehicle.  '23 could be a wild year and a lot can change.  sure, COGS/unit isn't static, but it didn't drop $4-5k overnight like some bulls wants to believe.

b) https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1614991977367625729

This guy is fairly accurate with his data.  It shows Tesla's global backlog declining by ~400k in the 2nd half of 2022.  Tesla sold ~750k units in the 2nd half of the year (I'm rounding up), and up to 400k of those were placed before the 2nd half of the year.  That means just 350k orders were placed from June-December.  Of course, you could slap on a 10% cancellation rate of pre-existing orders and say they only sold 360k from their backlog and that'd push orders up to 390k in the 2nd half of the year.  So somewhere on the order of 175k-190k quarterly order rate.

And personally, I think that's about right for a niche, BMW-type of automaker that sells mostly above the $50k price point and basically sells just 1.5 models (the Y which is mostly borrowed from the 3 and the 3...S/X are just super niche products without much more than 25k/quarter demand rate combined).  Without going down market and/or expanding their product offering, that seems right to me.  Now, of course, their goal is rapid growth so they'll have to drop prices to expand their TAM and/or start offering more than one new model every 3 years.

I don’t use analysts for forecasts. I make my own, but I mention analysts because no one cares what an anonymous person on a forum forecasts. I do benchmark against them tho. I don’t believe COGS dropped $4-5k overnight. Q3 COGS were $39k months ago and we’ll get Q4 with 60,000 incremental units delivered over Q3. Both Berlin and Texas ramped to 3-5k per week. No point in throwing out a number when a new data point on cost is less than a week away, but I think it’ll be less than $39k.

I follow Troy and subscribe to his Patreon. So you’re saying ~190,000 as the order rate per quarter going forward now that the backlog is gone? 760,000 annual sales in 2023. If you think he’s fairly accurate, you might be surprised to know he would highly disagree with that assessment.

DarkandStormy

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1664 on: January 20, 2023, 08:28:37 AM »
@ColoradoTribe It was a good interview. I watched it.

What is your math on the cuts being their entire margin?


In the first 9 months of 2022, Tesla earned ~$9bn in net income on ~900k deliveries.  Not sure which margin is being referenced, but they earned a net profit of about $10k per car delivered.

Now, how much did they just slash prices across their lineup?

https://tesladata.mattjung.net/total-new-inventory/

I like the inventory tracker.

I think you may be missing some components in that calculation. It assumes COGS/unit is static no matter the volume and operating costs increase proportionally with volume. That doesn't happen.

We know they delivered 405,278 units in Q4. We also know Berlin and Texas factories started production in Q2 of 2022 inflating COGS in the last few quarters. After the price cuts, analysts revised their down their estimates to $4.54 EPS with 1.855m deliveries in 2023. That's $8,443 net profit per car. 15% decline compared to before the price cuts.

Terminal demand in the 2nd half of 2022 was ~180k/quarter at the old prices.  They *had* to cut prices because supply was vastly outpacing demand.  Econ 101 stuff.  So much for that "unlimited demand" the most demented bulls liked to tout.

Terminal demand 180,000 cars/quarter? I don't understand that number. Can you elaborate?

a) not sure analyst estimates are the best way to forecast net profit per vehicle.  '23 could be a wild year and a lot can change.  sure, COGS/unit isn't static, but it didn't drop $4-5k overnight like some bulls wants to believe.

b) https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1614991977367625729

This guy is fairly accurate with his data.  It shows Tesla's global backlog declining by ~400k in the 2nd half of 2022.  Tesla sold ~750k units in the 2nd half of the year (I'm rounding up), and up to 400k of those were placed before the 2nd half of the year.  That means just 350k orders were placed from June-December.  Of course, you could slap on a 10% cancellation rate of pre-existing orders and say they only sold 360k from their backlog and that'd push orders up to 390k in the 2nd half of the year.  So somewhere on the order of 175k-190k quarterly order rate.

And personally, I think that's about right for a niche, BMW-type of automaker that sells mostly above the $50k price point and basically sells just 1.5 models (the Y which is mostly borrowed from the 3 and the 3...S/X are just super niche products without much more than 25k/quarter demand rate combined).  Without going down market and/or expanding their product offering, that seems right to me.  Now, of course, their goal is rapid growth so they'll have to drop prices to expand their TAM and/or start offering more than one new model every 3 years.

I don’t use analysts for forecasts. I make my own, but I mention analysts because no one cares what an anonymous person on a forum forecasts. I do benchmark against them tho. I don’t believe COGS dropped $4-5k overnight. Q3 COGS were $39k months ago and we’ll get Q4 with 60,000 incremental units delivered over Q3. Both Berlin and Texas ramped to 3-5k per week. No point in throwing out a number when a new data point on cost is less than a week away, but I think it’ll be less than $39k.

I follow Troy and subscribe to his Patreon. So you’re saying ~190,000 as the order rate per quarter going forward now that the backlog is gone? 760,000 annual sales in 2023. If you think he’s fairly accurate, you might be surprised to know he would highly disagree with that assessment.

Well, they've already cut prices.  That should increase demand.  So in no way am I saying they'll do 760k in 2023.  That might have been true if they didn't adjust prices, the IRA credit didn't exist, etc.  Economic conditions aren't static.  Interest rates could go up or could go down.  But that doesn't change the fact that Tesla had hit terminal demand at old prices of, optimistically, 200k/quarter.  We have the facts now and those facts undercut the "unlimited demand" talking point - of course, so did common sense if you applied it to a company trying to compete almost exclusively in the $50k+ vehicle space.

I actually think Tesla may be close to being fairly valued at the moment.  It is growing, so the 6-8x earnings multiple that traditional autos get is probably too low.  But it is still a capital intensive business, so they shouldn't get a "tech multiple" either, imo.  Company was obviously overvalued at $1tn.  So a 20-25x earnings multiple is probably correct, which is where the market has settled for the last few weeks.

50% growth is a nice story and narrative.  It gets harder each year, though.  I mean, it implies that in 2026 they'll grow from 5m to 7.5m or some such.  That's *A LOT* of new units for one year.  Easier to do when it's just adding a few hundred thousand units.  Of course, that's the risk/reward game that investors are playing.

Tesla the brand has taken a lot of damage over the last year.  It's tied, for better or worse, to Elon Musk, who has decided to go QAnon on Twitter and generally piss of Tesla's previous core customer base - liberals and environmentalists.  Some don't mind, sure.  But you can follow brand surveys and Tesla's brand has taken a hit.  Fairly big risk for a company to have that erratic of an egomaniac CEO. 

DarkandStormy

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1665 on: January 20, 2023, 08:35:16 AM »
https://doctorow.medium.com/the-true-genius-of-tech-leaders-46d6e3439989

Based on this perspective, for Tesla to continue dominating the EV market they'd need to quickly acquire and then employ or destroy new technologies to prevent others from using them, or use capital markets to underprice their competitors. Neither seems particularly plausible in the car construction heavy industry, but maybe Tesla's price cuts (which seem to be their entire margin) suggest they are willing to sacrifice profits in order to undercut competitors. Except they still aren't undercutting competitors.

What is your math on the cuts being their entire margin?

In the first 9 months of 2022, Tesla earned ~$9bn in net income on ~900k deliveries.  Not sure which margin is being referenced, but they earned a net profit of about $10k per car delivered.

Now, how much did they just slash prices across their lineup?

https://tesladata.mattjung.net/total-new-inventory/

Also, there does not appear to have been a huge wave of demand a week after these cuts.  If you go to their website in the U.S., you can get almost any model (any model except the dual motor Model X, to be specific) with an estimated delivery date before April.  This is despite Tesla's best efforts to get consumers to buy before March 31st due to the unclear nature of the IRA tax credit after that date.

Terminal demand in the 2nd half of 2022 was ~180k/quarter at the old prices.  They *had* to cut prices because supply was vastly outpacing demand.  Econ 101 stuff.  So much for that "unlimited demand" the most demented bulls liked to tout.

It's still very impressive what they've done - starting an EV company from scratch and getting to marginally profitable in ~15 years, even if some of their financial statements have some serious question marks if you dig into them.  That doesn't mean they should be valued as a $1 trillion company.

2023 will be interesting, for sure.  The company is trying to scale production to, what, 2m (or more) units for the year, but they appear to have a demand issue getting there.  The CEO has said they'll go flat to even negative margins if they have to.  Their product offering is stale, save for the Cybertruck if they ever figure out how to manufacture it.  Supposedly that starts later this year but I have a feeling it won't go smoothly.  Then, of course, there's the question of where these 1m robotaxis are that were supposed to be here in 2020 "for sure."

With the price cuts, it's certainly possible that revenues and EPS go negative QoQ when they report Q1 results.  For a 50% growth company, I'll be curious to see how the market reacts.

The automotive teardown expert interviewed in the video I posted above estimates Tesla margins (across all variants) to be at 20% after the price cuts. No one outside of Tesla is in a better position to assess Tesla’s COGS currently. While the sale price is transparent, the COGS are constantly changing, especially as the new factories ramp. Whereas, Tesla can drop 10% in margin and still be profitable, the competition has yet to turn a profit on their EVs and lowering prices would increase losses (not profit) for them. Tesla has signaled that they are willing to sacrifice margin (short term profit) for market share. I highly recommend watching the interview.

Tesla excludes R&D from its COGS, unlike every other auto maker.  Something you have to aware of when comparing margin % to competitors.  If Tesla did include R&D in its COGS (as is the industry standard) then it'd be middle of the pack in terms of margin % rather than "industry leading."

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1666 on: January 20, 2023, 09:08:09 AM »
Tesla excludes R&D from its COGS, unlike every other auto maker.  Something you have to aware of when comparing margin % to competitors.  If Tesla did include R&D in its COGS (as is the industry standard) then it'd be middle of the pack in terms of margin % rather than "industry leading."

I don't think that's true. For Q3, the Gross Margin would be 23% excluding energy credits with R&D included in COGS which would still be industry leading. And it wouldn't change Net Margin which is also industry leading. They elect to put R&D into operating costs because they spend R&D on software, energy, and charging (and other moonshots) in addition to auto. They're synergistic, but the R&D isn't all auto. Those are historical margins and are subject to change in the future with the price cuts. But I did just watch this video this morning on forward margins:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4ZcxeRq2Io

Well that was an unexpected. At current prices, their single unit costs imply (when factories are ramped) ~25% GM before software, upgrades and production tax credits. Not back of the napkin math; Every bolt in the car is priced in their research.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1667 on: January 20, 2023, 10:50:29 AM »
Tesla excludes R&D from its COGS, unlike every other auto maker.  Something you have to aware of when comparing margin % to competitors.  If Tesla did include R&D in its COGS (as is the industry standard) then it'd be middle of the pack in terms of margin % rather than "industry leading."

I don't think that's true. For Q3, the Gross Margin would be 23% excluding energy credits with R&D included in COGS which would still be industry leading. And it wouldn't change Net Margin which is also industry leading. They elect to put R&D into operating costs because they spend R&D on software, energy, and charging (and other moonshots) in addition to auto. They're synergistic, but the R&D isn't all auto. Those are historical margins and are subject to change in the future with the price cuts. But I did just watch this video this morning on forward margins:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4ZcxeRq2Io

Well that was an unexpected. At current prices, their single unit costs imply (when factories are ramped) ~25% GM before software, upgrades and production tax credits. Not back of the napkin math; Every bolt in the car is priced in their research.

Funny, came here to post this exact video. Sandy is cantankerous at times, but knows his stuff. If folks want to go straight to the juiciest bits, start at the 7:25 mark.

AJDZee

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1668 on: January 20, 2023, 12:19:25 PM »
Jim Cramer is bullish on TSLA.
So there we have it folks, I consider the debate over... Tesla bears have won! Let the selloff begin. :)


https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-sleeping-giant-jim-cramer/


lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1669 on: January 20, 2023, 12:27:23 PM »
Jim Cramer is bullish on TSLA.
So there we have it folks, I consider the debate over... Tesla bears have won! Let the selloff begin. :)


https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-sleeping-giant-jim-cramer/

Hahaha, our only hope is he changes his mind again tomorrow.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1670 on: January 20, 2023, 02:10:49 PM »
PRESS RELEASE - 19 JANUARY 2023 23:00

The safest new car of 2022: Tesla Model Y crowned What Car? Safety Award winner as European new car releases achieve best-ever Euro NCAP test scores​

Tesla’s fully-electric family car achieved the highest overall score of any car tested under Euro NCAP’s latest – and most exacting – protocols. Additionally, the Model Y’s near-perfect 98% Safety Assist score, which relates to the performance of its collision-avoidance systems, is the highest ever recorded by the European safety rating agency.

“The Tesla Model Y is an impressively high performer. Its Safety Assist score is the best we’ve ever recorded, and its Adult Occupant Protection score of 97% is the best in 2022,” Thatcham Research’s chief research strategy officer, Matthew Avery, said.

https://www.mynewsdesk.com/uk/thatcham-research/pressreleases/the-safest-new-car-of-2022-tesla-model-y-crowned-what-car-safety-award-winner-as-european-new-car-releases-achieve-best-ever-euro-ncap-test-scores-3228291?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=Alert&utm_content=pressrelease

Tesla is just another car company, nothing unique, or exceptional.

Bolded emphasis mine.
 

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1671 on: January 20, 2023, 06:01:06 PM »
Well if we're going to talk about oracles.....

Cathy Woods recently said expected tesla up 5 fold in 5 years...while that sounds great - given that they've been down 70% from ATH, that would really only even out to average performance since the ATH in 5 years.

So leaves me scratching my head! was she deliberately trying to sounds super bullish while predicting average performance?

MacGyverIt

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1672 on: January 21, 2023, 09:24:45 AM »
NBC: Tesla video promoting self-driving was staged, engineer testifies

The Bloomberg article is a good source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-19/elon-musk-directed-tesla-autopilot-video-saying-car-drove-itself-tsla?srnd=hyperdrive&leadSource=uverify%20wall

"...he made it clear that he wanted the video to show the car was better at self-driving than it actually was since it was just a demonstration of what Autopilot would eventually be able to do.”

“[m]ere failure to realize a long-term, aspirational goal is not fraud”

This didn't work out so well for Elizabeth Holmes...

ATtiny85

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1673 on: January 21, 2023, 10:04:03 AM »
Well if we're going to talk about oracles.....

Cathy Woods recently said expected tesla up 5 fold in 5 years...while that sounds great - given that they've been down 70% from ATH, that would really only even out to average performance since the ATH in 5 years.

So leaves me scratching my head! was she deliberately trying to sounds super bullish while predicting average performance?

Anytime I hear about someone reading / hearing anything Cathy says leaves me scratching my head.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1674 on: January 21, 2023, 02:35:20 PM »
Well if we're going to talk about oracles.....

Cathy Woods recently said expected tesla up 5 fold in 5 years...while that sounds great - given that they've been down 70% from ATH, that would really only even out to average performance since the ATH in 5 years.

So leaves me scratching my head! was she deliberately trying to sounds super bullish while predicting average performance?

Anytime I hear about someone reading / hearing anything Cathy says leaves me scratching my head.

so judgemental! it was just a tweet!

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1675 on: January 22, 2023, 06:23:51 PM »
https://doctorow.medium.com/the-true-genius-of-tech-leaders-46d6e3439989
Based on this perspective, for Tesla to continue dominating the EV market they'd need to quickly acquire and then employ or destroy new technologies to prevent others from using them, or use capital markets to underprice their competitors. Neither seems particularly plausible in the car construction heavy industry,

That's an interesting interpretation of the article. It doesn't strike me as particularly accurate.

Regarding the last bit: Remind me again which other car manufacturer is using frame castings as large as Tesla does? Half the frame in each casting.
I have no clue about how factories construct car frames because I am not an engineer in that niche. Similarly, I have no information about what each factory in the US, Europe, China, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Mexico, etc. is doing, or their relative cost advantages compared to each other. All you need to know is that it's clear business is less of a predictable meritocracy than most of us believe. The best product does not always succeed, the best strategies are often sunk by luck, the hardest working people are not always the most competent and vice versa.
So your "neither seems particularly plausible" claim is based on... your massive ignorance of the topic at hand?

Got it.
« Last Edit: January 22, 2023, 06:27:19 PM by TomTX »

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1676 on: January 23, 2023, 07:15:36 AM »
https://doctorow.medium.com/the-true-genius-of-tech-leaders-46d6e3439989
Based on this perspective, for Tesla to continue dominating the EV market they'd need to quickly acquire and then employ or destroy new technologies to prevent others from using them, or use capital markets to underprice their competitors. Neither seems particularly plausible in the car construction heavy industry,

That's an interesting interpretation of the article. It doesn't strike me as particularly accurate.

Regarding the last bit: Remind me again which other car manufacturer is using frame castings as large as Tesla does? Half the frame in each casting.
I have no clue about how factories construct car frames because I am not an engineer in that niche. Similarly, I have no information about what each factory in the US, Europe, China, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Mexico, etc. is doing, or their relative cost advantages compared to each other. All you need to know is that it's clear business is less of a predictable meritocracy than most of us believe. The best product does not always succeed, the best strategies are often sunk by luck, the hardest working people are not always the most competent and vice versa.
So your "neither seems particularly plausible" claim is based on... your massive ignorance of the topic at hand?

Got it.
So are you an engineer on a Tesla factory line or do you work in Tesla's finance department? Tell me more about why casting an entire car body at once is more economical than doing it in sections. What do they do with the entire car body when it gets a ding or a defect - scrap the whole thing? Does the process pass a cost on to consumers through higher costs of repairs? How does the undercoating process work, without risking getting material on the to-be painted surfaces? Is the rigidity of this carefully-tuned process why Tesla isn't introducing new models very quickly (to avoid "manufacturing hell"?)?

And how in 100+ years of car manufacturing history, across dozens of brands and hundreds of factories, is Tesla the only company that could ever pull off this apparently revolutionary process? What'll they think of next, stainless steel car bodies? :)

PDXTabs

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1677 on: January 23, 2023, 07:48:34 AM »
https://doctorow.medium.com/the-true-genius-of-tech-leaders-46d6e3439989
Based on this perspective, for Tesla to continue dominating the EV market they'd need to quickly acquire and then employ or destroy new technologies to prevent others from using them, or use capital markets to underprice their competitors. Neither seems particularly plausible in the car construction heavy industry,

That's an interesting interpretation of the article. It doesn't strike me as particularly accurate.

Regarding the last bit: Remind me again which other car manufacturer is using frame castings as large as Tesla does? Half the frame in each casting.
I have no clue about how factories construct car frames because I am not an engineer in that niche. Similarly, I have no information about what each factory in the US, Europe, China, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Mexico, etc. is doing, or their relative cost advantages compared to each other. All you need to know is that it's clear business is less of a predictable meritocracy than most of us believe. The best product does not always succeed, the best strategies are often sunk by luck, the hardest working people are not always the most competent and vice versa.
So your "neither seems particularly plausible" claim is based on... your massive ignorance of the topic at hand?

Got it.
So are you an engineer on a Tesla factory line or do you work in Tesla's finance department? Tell me more about why casting an entire car body at once is more economical than doing it in sections. What do they do with the entire car body when it gets a ding or a defect - scrap the whole thing? Does the process pass a cost on to consumers through higher costs of repairs? How does the undercoating process work, without risking getting material on the to-be painted surfaces? Is the rigidity of this carefully-tuned process why Tesla isn't introducing new models very quickly (to avoid "manufacturing hell"?)?

And how in 100+ years of car manufacturing history, across dozens of brands and hundreds of factories, is Tesla the only company that could ever pull off this apparently revolutionary process? What'll they think of next, stainless steel car bodies? :)

Also, it's just the Model Y AFAIK, none of the other models. Maybe that's cool, but I don't know how it is a huge competitive advantage. It isn't the whole body either: https://electrek.co/2021/10/05/tesla-building-model-y-bodies-single-front-rear-castings-manufacturing-first/

Audi also has cool unibody/frame technology but no one bids their stock up to nosebleed heights: https://www.audi-technology-portal.de/en/body/aluminium-bodies/audi-spaceframe-en

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1678 on: January 23, 2023, 08:03:10 AM »
So are you an engineer on a Tesla factory line or do you work in Tesla's finance department? Tell me more about why casting an entire car body at once is more economical than doing it in sections. What do they do with the entire car body when it gets a ding or a defect - scrap the whole thing? Does the process pass a cost on to consumers through higher costs of repairs? How does the undercoating process work, without risking getting material on the to-be painted surfaces? Is the rigidity of this carefully-tuned process why Tesla isn't introducing new models very quickly (to avoid "manufacturing hell"?)?

And how in 100+ years of car manufacturing history, across dozens of brands and hundreds of factories, is Tesla the only company that could ever pull off this apparently revolutionary process? What'll they think of next, stainless steel car bodies? :)

You didn't watch this last time. And again, show lack any reasonable effort to do any research before you speak.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNWYk4DdT_E



Also, it's just the Model Y AFAIK, none of the other models. Maybe that's cool, but I don't know how it is a huge competitive advantage. It isn't the whole body either: https://electrek.co/2021/10/05/tesla-building-model-y-bodies-single-front-rear-castings-manufacturing-first/

Audi also has cool unibody/frame technology but no one bids their stock up to nosebleed heights: https://www.audi-technology-portal.de/en/body/aluminium-bodies/audi-spaceframe-en

Audi never got it to scale. 550,000 since 1994?...One of the issues Tesla has solved with their alloys is they don't require a heat treat after casting which reduces cost and errors if the cast warps before treating. Criticism is fair for Tesla not innovating everything. They don't, but one of the things other automakers can't replicate is the shared information on metallurgy skunkworks that Tesla and SpaceX collaborate on.  As far as I'm aware, Audi and Lockheed Martin don't collaborate on alloys.
« Last Edit: January 23, 2023, 08:15:21 AM by lemonlyman »

FINate

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1679 on: January 23, 2023, 09:11:26 AM »
So are you an engineer on a Tesla factory line or do you work in Tesla's finance department? Tell me more about why casting an entire car body at once is more economical than doing it in sections. What do they do with the entire car body when it gets a ding or a defect - scrap the whole thing? Does the process pass a cost on to consumers through higher costs of repairs? How does the undercoating process work, without risking getting material on the to-be painted surfaces? Is the rigidity of this carefully-tuned process why Tesla isn't introducing new models very quickly (to avoid "manufacturing hell"?)?

And how in 100+ years of car manufacturing history, across dozens of brands and hundreds of factories, is Tesla the only company that could ever pull off this apparently revolutionary process? What'll they think of next, stainless steel car bodies? :)

You didn't watch this last time. And again, show lack any reasonable effort to do any research before you speak.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNWYk4DdT_E



Also, it's just the Model Y AFAIK, none of the other models. Maybe that's cool, but I don't know how it is a huge competitive advantage. It isn't the whole body either: https://electrek.co/2021/10/05/tesla-building-model-y-bodies-single-front-rear-castings-manufacturing-first/

Audi also has cool unibody/frame technology but no one bids their stock up to nosebleed heights: https://www.audi-technology-portal.de/en/body/aluminium-bodies/audi-spaceframe-en

Audi never got it to scale. 550,000 since 1994?...One of the issues Tesla has solved with their alloys is they don't require a heat treat after casting which reduces cost and errors if the cast warps before treating. Criticism is fair for Tesla not innovating everything. They don't, but one of the things other automakers can't replicate is the shared information on metallurgy skunkworks that Tesla and SpaceX collaborate on.  As far as I'm aware, Audi and Lockheed Martin don't collaborate on alloys.

I watched the video, not impressed. Basically a dude mansplaining using a lot of superlatives and very little actual data. Even his evolution of the horse analogy didn't make sense.

Looking at the rear end of the single cast, it's obvious that repairs will be very expensive compared to vehicles where the rear quarter panel can be replaced.

ETA: To be clear, the single cast body may be very impressive, I just don't think the video is convincing. I'm skeptical by nature (though not cynical), show me the numbers on how much this saves, improves margins, scaling, etc. What's the hard data showing this is a competitive advantage, and why should anyone believe that other automakers can't easily replicate the process (looks like Volvo is already investing in megacasting). And again, what's the repairability story -- I don't mean the underlying frame which always results in a total loss if damaged -- but rather aesthetic body panels.
« Last Edit: January 23, 2023, 11:25:45 AM by FINate »

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1680 on: January 23, 2023, 01:38:40 PM »
So are you an engineer on a Tesla factory line or do you work in Tesla's finance department? Tell me more about why casting an entire car body at once is more economical than doing it in sections. What do they do with the entire car body when it gets a ding or a defect - scrap the whole thing? Does the process pass a cost on to consumers through higher costs of repairs? How does the undercoating process work, without risking getting material on the to-be painted surfaces? Is the rigidity of this carefully-tuned process why Tesla isn't introducing new models very quickly (to avoid "manufacturing hell"?)?

And how in 100+ years of car manufacturing history, across dozens of brands and hundreds of factories, is Tesla the only company that could ever pull off this apparently revolutionary process? What'll they think of next, stainless steel car bodies? :)

You didn't watch this last time. And again, show lack any reasonable effort to do any research before you speak.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNWYk4DdT_E



Also, it's just the Model Y AFAIK, none of the other models. Maybe that's cool, but I don't know how it is a huge competitive advantage. It isn't the whole body either: https://electrek.co/2021/10/05/tesla-building-model-y-bodies-single-front-rear-castings-manufacturing-first/

Audi also has cool unibody/frame technology but no one bids their stock up to nosebleed heights: https://www.audi-technology-portal.de/en/body/aluminium-bodies/audi-spaceframe-en

Audi never got it to scale. 550,000 since 1994?...One of the issues Tesla has solved with their alloys is they don't require a heat treat after casting which reduces cost and errors if the cast warps before treating. Criticism is fair for Tesla not innovating everything. They don't, but one of the things other automakers can't replicate is the shared information on metallurgy skunkworks that Tesla and SpaceX collaborate on.  As far as I'm aware, Audi and Lockheed Martin don't collaborate on alloys.

I watched the video, not impressed. Basically a dude mansplaining using a lot of superlatives and very little actual data. Even his evolution of the horse analogy didn't make sense.

Looking at the rear end of the single cast, it's obvious that repairs will be very expensive compared to vehicles where the rear quarter panel can be replaced.

ETA: To be clear, the single cast body may be very impressive, I just don't think the video is convincing. I'm skeptical by nature (though not cynical), show me the numbers on how much this saves, improves margins, scaling, etc. What's the hard data showing this is a competitive advantage, and why should anyone believe that other automakers can't easily replicate the process (looks like Volvo is already investing in megacasting). And again, what's the repairability story -- I don't mean the underlying frame which always results in a total loss if damaged -- but rather aesthetic body panels.

The man you deride as “mansplaining” the advantages of Tesla’s engineering and manufacturing process has roughly 50 years of direct industry experience. He worked internally as an engineer for the Detroit OEMs. He runs his own successful and reputable business doing vehicle tear downs. Many OEMs buy his detailed reports. What is your experience in this realm?

If you watched the video I question your comprehension skills. All the questions you are asking are answered in the video by an actual expert in the field. Munro prices out the entire vehicle, down to the smallest washer, nut and bolt. They price out the raw material and labor costs as well. They know precisely what it costs to manufacture each vehicle they tear down. Have you priced out every component and the manufacturing costs of the Model Y?

Intuitively, if you are replacing dozens of largely outsourced components and replacing it with a single, vertically integrated casting you are saving money and time (which is money). You no longer have to order, store, move about the factory, and assemble dozens of parts. Instead, a gigapress machine creates a single casting in a matter of seconds. Fewer parts means less things that can go wrong in the supply chain, during assembly, and down the road (recalls). This opens up factory floor space, requires far less labor, and less equipment (welders, etc.).

As for damage, Sandy says it right in the video. If the steel understructure of an OEM car is bent the car is totaled. The aluminum alloy casting of the Tesla is super strong. If it does crack, it can be welded and the vehicle is not totaled. You are talking about vehicle panels, but those are not part of the casting Tesla is using or Munro is praising. The entire understructure of the Tesla model Y consists of two mega-castings attached to a structural battery pack. The body panels are then attached to this structure, just like in other cars. If a Tesla panel is dinged, the body panel can be replaced.

You continue to ask endless questions to which the answers are readily available in most cases and play it off as healthy skepticism. Showing your ignorance in the process. Being skeptical is great, being intransigent or immovable in the face of direct, contradictory answers to your questions from subject matter experts is not.

As I see it you really have two choices. 1) Accept the conclusion of one of the leading experts in the field when he says the Tesla castings represent a major step forward in the industry and significant cost savings. 2) Buy Munro’s Tesla Model Y report. Buy a model Y. Tear down the Model Y, pricing out each component piece by piece. Compare your findings to Munro’s findings.

We look forward to your findings.

If my tone is snarky, understand its because I have no patience left for internet experts that have been proven wrong about Tesla time and time again over the years, but jump from “concern” to “concern" while offering no expertise. Most have no position in Tesla and aren’t considering one, but are “concerned" over how others invest their money.  I wouldn’t even feel compelled to respond, but for the fear some may mistake their “concerns” for actual insight.

Meanwhile, the market makers have decided they’re unlikely to push TSLA down any further. So, after fleecing retail longs, those on margin, and option holders on the way down, they’ll now load up on cheap shares and fleece the retail shorts on the way back up. Wall Street loves volatility. My not advice, buy and hold for the long term (two years minimum). Stock is up 30% year-to-date, but still down more than 50% from ATH.




FINate

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1681 on: January 23, 2023, 02:43:00 PM »
So are you an engineer on a Tesla factory line or do you work in Tesla's finance department? Tell me more about why casting an entire car body at once is more economical than doing it in sections. What do they do with the entire car body when it gets a ding or a defect - scrap the whole thing? Does the process pass a cost on to consumers through higher costs of repairs? How does the undercoating process work, without risking getting material on the to-be painted surfaces? Is the rigidity of this carefully-tuned process why Tesla isn't introducing new models very quickly (to avoid "manufacturing hell"?)?

And how in 100+ years of car manufacturing history, across dozens of brands and hundreds of factories, is Tesla the only company that could ever pull off this apparently revolutionary process? What'll they think of next, stainless steel car bodies? :)

You didn't watch this last time. And again, show lack any reasonable effort to do any research before you speak.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNWYk4DdT_E



Also, it's just the Model Y AFAIK, none of the other models. Maybe that's cool, but I don't know how it is a huge competitive advantage. It isn't the whole body either: https://electrek.co/2021/10/05/tesla-building-model-y-bodies-single-front-rear-castings-manufacturing-first/

Audi also has cool unibody/frame technology but no one bids their stock up to nosebleed heights: https://www.audi-technology-portal.de/en/body/aluminium-bodies/audi-spaceframe-en

Audi never got it to scale. 550,000 since 1994?...One of the issues Tesla has solved with their alloys is they don't require a heat treat after casting which reduces cost and errors if the cast warps before treating. Criticism is fair for Tesla not innovating everything. They don't, but one of the things other automakers can't replicate is the shared information on metallurgy skunkworks that Tesla and SpaceX collaborate on.  As far as I'm aware, Audi and Lockheed Martin don't collaborate on alloys.

I watched the video, not impressed. Basically a dude mansplaining using a lot of superlatives and very little actual data. Even his evolution of the horse analogy didn't make sense.

Looking at the rear end of the single cast, it's obvious that repairs will be very expensive compared to vehicles where the rear quarter panel can be replaced.

ETA: To be clear, the single cast body may be very impressive, I just don't think the video is convincing. I'm skeptical by nature (though not cynical), show me the numbers on how much this saves, improves margins, scaling, etc. What's the hard data showing this is a competitive advantage, and why should anyone believe that other automakers can't easily replicate the process (looks like Volvo is already investing in megacasting). And again, what's the repairability story -- I don't mean the underlying frame which always results in a total loss if damaged -- but rather aesthetic body panels.

The man you deride as “mansplaining” the advantages of Tesla’s engineering and manufacturing process has roughly 50 years of direct industry experience. He worked internally as an engineer for the Detroit OEMs. He runs his own successful and reputable business doing vehicle tear downs. Many OEMs buy his detailed reports. What is your experience in this realm?

If you watched the video I question your comprehension skills. All the questions you are asking are answered in the video by an actual expert in the field. Munro prices out the entire vehicle, down to the smallest washer, nut and bolt. They price out the raw material and labor costs as well. They know precisely what it costs to manufacture each vehicle they tear down. Have you priced out every component and the manufacturing costs of the Model Y?

Intuitively, if you are replacing dozens of largely outsourced components and replacing it with a single, vertically integrated casting you are saving money and time (which is money). You no longer have to order, store, move about the factory, and assemble dozens of parts. Instead, a gigapress machine creates a single casting in a matter of seconds. Fewer parts means less things that can go wrong in the supply chain, during assembly, and down the road (recalls). This opens up factory floor space, requires far less labor, and less equipment (welders, etc.).

As for damage, Sandy says it right in the video. If the steel understructure of an OEM car is bent the car is totaled. The aluminum alloy casting of the Tesla is super strong. If it does crack, it can be welded and the vehicle is not totaled. You are talking about vehicle panels, but those are not part of the casting Tesla is using or Munro is praising. The entire understructure of the Tesla model Y consists of two mega-castings attached to a structural battery pack. The body panels are then attached to this structure, just like in other cars. If a Tesla panel is dinged, the body panel can be replaced.

You continue to ask endless questions to which the answers are readily available in most cases and play it off as healthy skepticism. Showing your ignorance in the process. Being skeptical is great, being intransigent or immovable in the face of direct, contradictory answers to your questions from subject matter experts is not.

As I see it you really have two choices. 1) Accept the conclusion of one of the leading experts in the field when he says the Tesla castings represent a major step forward in the industry and significant cost savings. 2) Buy Munro’s Tesla Model Y report. Buy a model Y. Tear down the Model Y, pricing out each component piece by piece. Compare your findings to Munro’s findings.

We look forward to your findings.

If my tone is snarky, understand its because I have no patience left for internet experts that have been proven wrong about Tesla time and time again over the years, but jump from “concern” to “concern" while offering no expertise. Most have no position in Tesla and aren’t considering one, but are “concerned" over how others invest their money.  I wouldn’t even feel compelled to respond, but for the fear some may mistake their “concerns” for actual insight.

Meanwhile, the market makers have decided they’re unlikely to push TSLA down any further. So, after fleecing retail longs, those on margin, and option holders on the way down, they’ll now load up on cheap shares and fleece the retail shorts on the way back up. Wall Street loves volatility. My not advice, buy and hold for the long term (two years minimum). Stock is up 30% year-to-date, but still down more than 50% from ATH.

You're making an appeal to authority that I don't find particularly compelling. I'm not deriding the man, just pointing out that he is, in fact, mansplaining. I didn't find the video very informative.

Megacastings may be the future, I just want to see a more balanced view. There's a valid concern about damage that is potentially much more expensive to repair leading to higher rates of totaled vehicles and consequently higher insurance rates. Repairer Driven News (repair industry mag) has an interesting discussion about this: https://www.repairerdrivennews.com/2022/06/06/ducker-oems-show-interest-in-mega-castings-despite-many-doubts-about-their-performance/

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1682 on: January 23, 2023, 03:53:35 PM »
So are you an engineer on a Tesla factory line or do you work in Tesla's finance department? Tell me more about why casting an entire car body at once is more economical than doing it in sections. What do they do with the entire car body when it gets a ding or a defect - scrap the whole thing? Does the process pass a cost on to consumers through higher costs of repairs? How does the undercoating process work, without risking getting material on the to-be painted surfaces? Is the rigidity of this carefully-tuned process why Tesla isn't introducing new models very quickly (to avoid "manufacturing hell"?)?

And how in 100+ years of car manufacturing history, across dozens of brands and hundreds of factories, is Tesla the only company that could ever pull off this apparently revolutionary process? What'll they think of next, stainless steel car bodies? :)

You didn't watch this last time. And again, show lack any reasonable effort to do any research before you speak.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNWYk4DdT_E



Also, it's just the Model Y AFAIK, none of the other models. Maybe that's cool, but I don't know how it is a huge competitive advantage. It isn't the whole body either: https://electrek.co/2021/10/05/tesla-building-model-y-bodies-single-front-rear-castings-manufacturing-first/

Audi also has cool unibody/frame technology but no one bids their stock up to nosebleed heights: https://www.audi-technology-portal.de/en/body/aluminium-bodies/audi-spaceframe-en

Audi never got it to scale. 550,000 since 1994?...One of the issues Tesla has solved with their alloys is they don't require a heat treat after casting which reduces cost and errors if the cast warps before treating. Criticism is fair for Tesla not innovating everything. They don't, but one of the things other automakers can't replicate is the shared information on metallurgy skunkworks that Tesla and SpaceX collaborate on.  As far as I'm aware, Audi and Lockheed Martin don't collaborate on alloys.

I watched the video, not impressed. Basically a dude mansplaining using a lot of superlatives and very little actual data. Even his evolution of the horse analogy didn't make sense.

Looking at the rear end of the single cast, it's obvious that repairs will be very expensive compared to vehicles where the rear quarter panel can be replaced.

ETA: To be clear, the single cast body may be very impressive, I just don't think the video is convincing. I'm skeptical by nature (though not cynical), show me the numbers on how much this saves, improves margins, scaling, etc. What's the hard data showing this is a competitive advantage, and why should anyone believe that other automakers can't easily replicate the process (looks like Volvo is already investing in megacasting). And again, what's the repairability story -- I don't mean the underlying frame which always results in a total loss if damaged -- but rather aesthetic body panels.

The man you deride as “mansplaining” the advantages of Tesla’s engineering and manufacturing process has roughly 50 years of direct industry experience. He worked internally as an engineer for the Detroit OEMs. He runs his own successful and reputable business doing vehicle tear downs. Many OEMs buy his detailed reports. What is your experience in this realm?

If you watched the video I question your comprehension skills. All the questions you are asking are answered in the video by an actual expert in the field. Munro prices out the entire vehicle, down to the smallest washer, nut and bolt. They price out the raw material and labor costs as well. They know precisely what it costs to manufacture each vehicle they tear down. Have you priced out every component and the manufacturing costs of the Model Y?

Intuitively, if you are replacing dozens of largely outsourced components and replacing it with a single, vertically integrated casting you are saving money and time (which is money). You no longer have to order, store, move about the factory, and assemble dozens of parts. Instead, a gigapress machine creates a single casting in a matter of seconds. Fewer parts means less things that can go wrong in the supply chain, during assembly, and down the road (recalls). This opens up factory floor space, requires far less labor, and less equipment (welders, etc.).

As for damage, Sandy says it right in the video. If the steel understructure of an OEM car is bent the car is totaled. The aluminum alloy casting of the Tesla is super strong. If it does crack, it can be welded and the vehicle is not totaled. You are talking about vehicle panels, but those are not part of the casting Tesla is using or Munro is praising. The entire understructure of the Tesla model Y consists of two mega-castings attached to a structural battery pack. The body panels are then attached to this structure, just like in other cars. If a Tesla panel is dinged, the body panel can be replaced.

You continue to ask endless questions to which the answers are readily available in most cases and play it off as healthy skepticism. Showing your ignorance in the process. Being skeptical is great, being intransigent or immovable in the face of direct, contradictory answers to your questions from subject matter experts is not.

As I see it you really have two choices. 1) Accept the conclusion of one of the leading experts in the field when he says the Tesla castings represent a major step forward in the industry and significant cost savings. 2) Buy Munro’s Tesla Model Y report. Buy a model Y. Tear down the Model Y, pricing out each component piece by piece. Compare your findings to Munro’s findings.

We look forward to your findings.

If my tone is snarky, understand its because I have no patience left for internet experts that have been proven wrong about Tesla time and time again over the years, but jump from “concern” to “concern" while offering no expertise. Most have no position in Tesla and aren’t considering one, but are “concerned" over how others invest their money.  I wouldn’t even feel compelled to respond, but for the fear some may mistake their “concerns” for actual insight.

Meanwhile, the market makers have decided they’re unlikely to push TSLA down any further. So, after fleecing retail longs, those on margin, and option holders on the way down, they’ll now load up on cheap shares and fleece the retail shorts on the way back up. Wall Street loves volatility. My not advice, buy and hold for the long term (two years minimum). Stock is up 30% year-to-date, but still down more than 50% from ATH.

You're making an appeal to authority that I don't find particularly compelling. I'm not deriding the man, just pointing out that he is, in fact, mansplaining. I didn't find the video very informative.

Megacastings may be the future, I just want to see a more balanced view. There's a valid concern about damage that is potentially much more expensive to repair leading to higher rates of totaled vehicles and consequently higher insurance rates. Repairer Driven News (repair industry mag) has an interesting discussion about this: https://www.repairerdrivennews.com/2022/06/06/ducker-oems-show-interest-in-mega-castings-despite-many-doubts-about-their-performance/

Simply saying you have doubts and casting aside actual subject expertise is quite frankly ridiculous unless you are offering up a substantive response and not just saying you don’t find the expert “compelling”. Debating opinions or largely baseless “concerns" has no value in the investor context. You and ChpBstrd have both shown you are unwilling or unable to move past bear talking points that have been refuted time and again over the course of this thread. New “concerns” will always arise around Tesla or any business. Myopically focusing on the challenges and ignoring the unprecedented successes shows clear bias. Nothing personal, but I think we’re done as far as this topic is concerned.

As for your link, the article takes selective quotes from a 3-page “white paper” as the basis for it’s conclusions. The authors of the white paper are employees of Ducker, which is a for-profit industry consultant the does research on behalf of clients. The white paper itself contains no data or actual research, but repeatedly brings up “concerns” over the repairability of the megacastings. It is unclear if the authors are even subject matter experts, such has having worked as an engineer for an OEM, metallurgical expertise, etc.

Basically, you have backed up your unfounded claims about repairability, which was directly refuted by an actual industry expert with decades of relevant experience, by citing an article, based on a 3-page white paper that brings up unfounded and unsupported “concerns” about repairability.

Lastly, here’s the first two sentences of the white paper.

Nio and Xpeng, two Chinese EV startups, have already followed Tesla's lead by ordering injection molding machines capable of 12,000 tons of force from IDRA (LK Machinery). Now it's Mercedes-Benz's turn for its EQXX to succumb to giant castings.

In this context the word ‘succumb' is telling and hints at bias against the new disruptive technology. To me, it looks like a conventional auto parts supplier with a financial incentive to slow adoption of megacastings hired Decker to write a “white paper”, masquerading as research to throw doubt on to the new technology in the hopes of slowing adoption. Do you really think Tesla went down this road blindly without considering repairability?



« Last Edit: January 23, 2023, 11:46:52 PM by ColoradoTribe »

FINate

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1683 on: January 23, 2023, 04:32:43 PM »
So are you an engineer on a Tesla factory line or do you work in Tesla's finance department? Tell me more about why casting an entire car body at once is more economical than doing it in sections. What do they do with the entire car body when it gets a ding or a defect - scrap the whole thing? Does the process pass a cost on to consumers through higher costs of repairs? How does the undercoating process work, without risking getting material on the to-be painted surfaces? Is the rigidity of this carefully-tuned process why Tesla isn't introducing new models very quickly (to avoid "manufacturing hell"?)?

And how in 100+ years of car manufacturing history, across dozens of brands and hundreds of factories, is Tesla the only company that could ever pull off this apparently revolutionary process? What'll they think of next, stainless steel car bodies? :)

You didn't watch this last time. And again, show lack any reasonable effort to do any research before you speak.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNWYk4DdT_E



Also, it's just the Model Y AFAIK, none of the other models. Maybe that's cool, but I don't know how it is a huge competitive advantage. It isn't the whole body either: https://electrek.co/2021/10/05/tesla-building-model-y-bodies-single-front-rear-castings-manufacturing-first/

Audi also has cool unibody/frame technology but no one bids their stock up to nosebleed heights: https://www.audi-technology-portal.de/en/body/aluminium-bodies/audi-spaceframe-en

Audi never got it to scale. 550,000 since 1994?...One of the issues Tesla has solved with their alloys is they don't require a heat treat after casting which reduces cost and errors if the cast warps before treating. Criticism is fair for Tesla not innovating everything. They don't, but one of the things other automakers can't replicate is the shared information on metallurgy skunkworks that Tesla and SpaceX collaborate on.  As far as I'm aware, Audi and Lockheed Martin don't collaborate on alloys.

I watched the video, not impressed. Basically a dude mansplaining using a lot of superlatives and very little actual data. Even his evolution of the horse analogy didn't make sense.

Looking at the rear end of the single cast, it's obvious that repairs will be very expensive compared to vehicles where the rear quarter panel can be replaced.

ETA: To be clear, the single cast body may be very impressive, I just don't think the video is convincing. I'm skeptical by nature (though not cynical), show me the numbers on how much this saves, improves margins, scaling, etc. What's the hard data showing this is a competitive advantage, and why should anyone believe that other automakers can't easily replicate the process (looks like Volvo is already investing in megacasting). And again, what's the repairability story -- I don't mean the underlying frame which always results in a total loss if damaged -- but rather aesthetic body panels.

The man you deride as “mansplaining” the advantages of Tesla’s engineering and manufacturing process has roughly 50 years of direct industry experience. He worked internally as an engineer for the Detroit OEMs. He runs his own successful and reputable business doing vehicle tear downs. Many OEMs buy his detailed reports. What is your experience in this realm?

If you watched the video I question your comprehension skills. All the questions you are asking are answered in the video by an actual expert in the field. Munro prices out the entire vehicle, down to the smallest washer, nut and bolt. They price out the raw material and labor costs as well. They know precisely what it costs to manufacture each vehicle they tear down. Have you priced out every component and the manufacturing costs of the Model Y?

Intuitively, if you are replacing dozens of largely outsourced components and replacing it with a single, vertically integrated casting you are saving money and time (which is money). You no longer have to order, store, move about the factory, and assemble dozens of parts. Instead, a gigapress machine creates a single casting in a matter of seconds. Fewer parts means less things that can go wrong in the supply chain, during assembly, and down the road (recalls). This opens up factory floor space, requires far less labor, and less equipment (welders, etc.).

As for damage, Sandy says it right in the video. If the steel understructure of an OEM car is bent the car is totaled. The aluminum alloy casting of the Tesla is super strong. If it does crack, it can be welded and the vehicle is not totaled. You are talking about vehicle panels, but those are not part of the casting Tesla is using or Munro is praising. The entire understructure of the Tesla model Y consists of two mega-castings attached to a structural battery pack. The body panels are then attached to this structure, just like in other cars. If a Tesla panel is dinged, the body panel can be replaced.

You continue to ask endless questions to which the answers are readily available in most cases and play it off as healthy skepticism. Showing your ignorance in the process. Being skeptical is great, being intransigent or immovable in the face of direct, contradictory answers to your questions from subject matter experts is not.

As I see it you really have two choices. 1) Accept the conclusion of one of the leading experts in the field when he says the Tesla castings represent a major step forward in the industry and significant cost savings. 2) Buy Munro’s Tesla Model Y report. Buy a model Y. Tear down the Model Y, pricing out each component piece by piece. Compare your findings to Munro’s findings.

We look forward to your findings.

If my tone is snarky, understand its because I have no patience left for internet experts that have been proven wrong about Tesla time and time again over the years, but jump from “concern” to “concern" while offering no expertise. Most have no position in Tesla and aren’t considering one, but are “concerned" over how others invest their money.  I wouldn’t even feel compelled to respond, but for the fear some may mistake their “concerns” for actual insight.

Meanwhile, the market makers have decided they’re unlikely to push TSLA down any further. So, after fleecing retail longs, those on margin, and option holders on the way down, they’ll now load up on cheap shares and fleece the retail shorts on the way back up. Wall Street loves volatility. My not advice, buy and hold for the long term (two years minimum). Stock is up 30% year-to-date, but still down more than 50% from ATH.

You're making an appeal to authority that I don't find particularly compelling. I'm not deriding the man, just pointing out that he is, in fact, mansplaining. I didn't find the video very informative.

Megacastings may be the future, I just want to see a more balanced view. There's a valid concern about damage that is potentially much more expensive to repair leading to higher rates of totaled vehicles and consequently higher insurance rates. Repairer Driven News (repair industry mag) has an interesting discussion about this: https://www.repairerdrivennews.com/2022/06/06/ducker-oems-show-interest-in-mega-castings-despite-many-doubts-about-their-performance/

Simply saying you have doubts and casting aside actual subject expertise is quite frankly ridiculous unless you are offering up a substantive response and not just saying you don’t find the expert “compelling”. Debating opinions or largely baseless “concerns" has no value in the investor context. You and ChpBstrd have both shown you are unwilling or unable to move past bear talking points that have been refuted time and again over the course of this thread. New “concerns” will always arise around Tesla or any business. Myopically focusing on the challenges and ignoring the unprecedented successes shows clear bias. Nothing personal, but I think we’re done as far as this topic is concerned.

As for your link, the article takes selective quotes from a 3-page “white paper” as the basis for it’s conclusions. The authors of the white paper are employees of Ducker, which is a for-profit industry consultant the does research on behalf of clients. The white paper itself contains no data or actual research, but repeatedly brings up “concerns” over the repairability of the megacastings. It is unclear if the authors are even subject matter experts, such has having worked as an engineer for an OEM, metallurgical expertise, etc.

Basically, you have backed up your unfounded claims about repairability, which was directly refuted by an actual industry expert with decades of relevant experience, by citing an article, based on a 3-page white paper that brings up unfounded and unsupported “concerns” about repairability.

Lastly, here’s the two sentences of the white paper.

Nio and Xpeng, two Chinese EV startups, have already followed Tesla's lead by ordering injection molding machines capable of 12,000 tons of force from IDRA (LK Machinery). Now it's Mercedes-Benz's turn for its EQXX to succumb to giant castings.

In this context the word ‘succumb' is telling and hints at bias against the new disruptive technology. To me, it looks like a conventional auto parts supplier with a financial incentive to slow adoption of megacastings hired Decker to write a “white paper”, masquerading as “research” to throw doubt on to the new technology in the hopes of slowing adoption. Do you really think Tesla went down this road blindly without considering repairability?

that have “concerns”, but offer no data or proof that Tesla’s megacastings will cause Tesla’s to be declared total losses at a higher rate that conventional steel frame vehicles. So, to back up your unfounded concerns you reference an article that brings up unfounded “concerns”? It is unclear if the authors have any direct subject matter expertise, such as working for OEMs and an engineer, metallurgical expertise, etc.

The research firm Ducker that commissioned the white paper operates on behalf of industrial clients.

I don't have to substantiate my concerns. By default, the answer to the question "is X a good investment" is "no." The burden of proof is on you to show that megacasting gives Tesla a materially significant advantage over rivals that is not easily replicated. I remain unconvinced. Clearly we disagree, and that's fine. You do you.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1684 on: January 23, 2023, 04:57:24 PM »
So are you an engineer on a Tesla factory line or do you work in Tesla's finance department? Tell me more about why casting an entire car body at once is more economical than doing it in sections. What do they do with the entire car body when it gets a ding or a defect - scrap the whole thing? Does the process pass a cost on to consumers through higher costs of repairs? How does the undercoating process work, without risking getting material on the to-be painted surfaces? Is the rigidity of this carefully-tuned process why Tesla isn't introducing new models very quickly (to avoid "manufacturing hell"?)?

And how in 100+ years of car manufacturing history, across dozens of brands and hundreds of factories, is Tesla the only company that could ever pull off this apparently revolutionary process? What'll they think of next, stainless steel car bodies? :)

You didn't watch this last time. And again, show lack any reasonable effort to do any research before you speak.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNWYk4DdT_E



Also, it's just the Model Y AFAIK, none of the other models. Maybe that's cool, but I don't know how it is a huge competitive advantage. It isn't the whole body either: https://electrek.co/2021/10/05/tesla-building-model-y-bodies-single-front-rear-castings-manufacturing-first/

Audi also has cool unibody/frame technology but no one bids their stock up to nosebleed heights: https://www.audi-technology-portal.de/en/body/aluminium-bodies/audi-spaceframe-en

Audi never got it to scale. 550,000 since 1994?...One of the issues Tesla has solved with their alloys is they don't require a heat treat after casting which reduces cost and errors if the cast warps before treating. Criticism is fair for Tesla not innovating everything. They don't, but one of the things other automakers can't replicate is the shared information on metallurgy skunkworks that Tesla and SpaceX collaborate on.  As far as I'm aware, Audi and Lockheed Martin don't collaborate on alloys.

I watched the video, not impressed. Basically a dude mansplaining using a lot of superlatives and very little actual data. Even his evolution of the horse analogy didn't make sense.

Looking at the rear end of the single cast, it's obvious that repairs will be very expensive compared to vehicles where the rear quarter panel can be replaced.

ETA: To be clear, the single cast body may be very impressive, I just don't think the video is convincing. I'm skeptical by nature (though not cynical), show me the numbers on how much this saves, improves margins, scaling, etc. What's the hard data showing this is a competitive advantage, and why should anyone believe that other automakers can't easily replicate the process (looks like Volvo is already investing in megacasting). And again, what's the repairability story -- I don't mean the underlying frame which always results in a total loss if damaged -- but rather aesthetic body panels.


I didn't see any mansplaining going on in the video....what are specifically referring to?

FINate

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1685 on: January 23, 2023, 07:28:57 PM »
So are you an engineer on a Tesla factory line or do you work in Tesla's finance department? Tell me more about why casting an entire car body at once is more economical than doing it in sections. What do they do with the entire car body when it gets a ding or a defect - scrap the whole thing? Does the process pass a cost on to consumers through higher costs of repairs? How does the undercoating process work, without risking getting material on the to-be painted surfaces? Is the rigidity of this carefully-tuned process why Tesla isn't introducing new models very quickly (to avoid "manufacturing hell"?)?

And how in 100+ years of car manufacturing history, across dozens of brands and hundreds of factories, is Tesla the only company that could ever pull off this apparently revolutionary process? What'll they think of next, stainless steel car bodies? :)

You didn't watch this last time. And again, show lack any reasonable effort to do any research before you speak.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNWYk4DdT_E



Also, it's just the Model Y AFAIK, none of the other models. Maybe that's cool, but I don't know how it is a huge competitive advantage. It isn't the whole body either: https://electrek.co/2021/10/05/tesla-building-model-y-bodies-single-front-rear-castings-manufacturing-first/

Audi also has cool unibody/frame technology but no one bids their stock up to nosebleed heights: https://www.audi-technology-portal.de/en/body/aluminium-bodies/audi-spaceframe-en

Audi never got it to scale. 550,000 since 1994?...One of the issues Tesla has solved with their alloys is they don't require a heat treat after casting which reduces cost and errors if the cast warps before treating. Criticism is fair for Tesla not innovating everything. They don't, but one of the things other automakers can't replicate is the shared information on metallurgy skunkworks that Tesla and SpaceX collaborate on.  As far as I'm aware, Audi and Lockheed Martin don't collaborate on alloys.

I watched the video, not impressed. Basically a dude mansplaining using a lot of superlatives and very little actual data. Even his evolution of the horse analogy didn't make sense.

Looking at the rear end of the single cast, it's obvious that repairs will be very expensive compared to vehicles where the rear quarter panel can be replaced.

ETA: To be clear, the single cast body may be very impressive, I just don't think the video is convincing. I'm skeptical by nature (though not cynical), show me the numbers on how much this saves, improves margins, scaling, etc. What's the hard data showing this is a competitive advantage, and why should anyone believe that other automakers can't easily replicate the process (looks like Volvo is already investing in megacasting). And again, what's the repairability story -- I don't mean the underlying frame which always results in a total loss if damaged -- but rather aesthetic body panels.


I didn't see any mansplaining going on in the video....what are specifically referring to?

I found his tone condescending. The top comment mentions his high level of swagger. Whatever you want to call it (and I don't want to derail this thread with a semantic debate), I'm not the only one to observe this.

FINate

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1686 on: January 23, 2023, 08:00:14 PM »
For what it's worth, I think the following video does a much better job explaining Tesla's gigacasting design for repairability:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j1bQbA3EOKw

The incorporation of replaceable crash absorption rails is a key bit of information missing from this discussion and previously linked video. I still want to see actual data on gigacasting vs. unibody repair costs, but expect we'll need a few years before good data emerges. In any case, if Tesla Insurance is willing to commit to insuring these vehicles at an affordable rate long-term then I would have more confidence in the new design.

EchoStache

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1687 on: January 24, 2023, 06:48:23 AM »
Wife and I pay about $60/month for full coverage on a 2023 Model 3 AWD Long Range; not Tesla Insurance.  We have an 18 year old in the house so our rate would be lower if it was just us.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2023, 10:09:54 AM by UltraStache »

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1688 on: January 24, 2023, 03:00:07 PM »
https://doctorow.medium.com/the-true-genius-of-tech-leaders-46d6e3439989
Based on this perspective, for Tesla to continue dominating the EV market they'd need to quickly acquire and then employ or destroy new technologies to prevent others from using them, or use capital markets to underprice their competitors. Neither seems particularly plausible in the car construction heavy industry,

That's an interesting interpretation of the article. It doesn't strike me as particularly accurate.

Regarding the last bit: Remind me again which other car manufacturer is using frame castings as large as Tesla does? Half the frame in each casting.
I have no clue about how factories construct car frames because I am not an engineer in that niche. Similarly, I have no information about what each factory in the US, Europe, China, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Mexico, etc. is doing, or their relative cost advantages compared to each other. All you need to know is that it's clear business is less of a predictable meritocracy than most of us believe. The best product does not always succeed, the best strategies are often sunk by luck, the hardest working people are not always the most competent and vice versa.
So your "neither seems particularly plausible" claim is based on... your massive ignorance of the topic at hand?

Got it.
So are you an engineer on a Tesla factory line or do you work in Tesla's finance department? Tell me more about why casting an entire car body at once is more economical than doing it in sections. What do they do with the entire car body when it gets a ding or a defect - scrap the whole thing? Does the process pass a cost on to consumers through higher costs of repairs?
LOL! Your ad-hom is noted and further reduces my opinion of you. I have zero financial interest in Tesla other than whatever VTI includes.

Per your post, this is an example of "quickly acquire and then employ or destroy new technologies ". Rather than accept that, you decided to attack my motivations based on incorrect speculation. Shameful.

Oh, and if you bend the frame on most modern cars, it's scrap. Your approach here displays both vast ignorance about cars and indicates you are employing "motivated reasoning" for some unexplained reason.

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1689 on: January 24, 2023, 03:04:52 PM »
You're making an appeal to authority that I don't find particularly compelling. I'm not deriding the man, just pointing out that he is, in fact, mansplaining. I didn't find the video very informative.
That's more of a commentary on your degree of comprehension (or lack thereof) than on a company from which just about every major OEM has purchased vehicle teardown reports. Munro and Associates are an actual experts on the matter being discussed. You seem to also not fully understand what the "appeal to authority" fallacy is actually about: https://www.grammarly.com/blog/appeal-to-authority-fallacy/

Just FYI, Sandy Munro was very critical of the original Model 3.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2023, 03:06:47 PM by TomTX »

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1690 on: January 24, 2023, 03:08:39 PM »
I don't have to substantiate my concerns.
LOL. Well, thanks for confirming the worth (or lack thereof) of your "concerns". They can go right in the scrap bin along with your personal opinion of "tone" which you mischaracterized as "mansplaining".
« Last Edit: January 24, 2023, 03:10:17 PM by TomTX »

GuitarStv

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1691 on: January 24, 2023, 03:38:56 PM »
Oh, and if you bend the frame on most modern cars, it's scrap.

Quote
The crash absorption rails can be cut off & replaced with a bolted part for collision repair

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1313874241134063616?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1313874241134063616%7Ctwgr%5E972da973ff329d2f8f0c0762c638720397a9788c%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.teslarati.com%2Ftesla-single-cast-collision-repair-strategy-elon-musk%2F


Why is Musk talking about cutting chunks of Tesla frames off for repairs?  Certainly makes it seem like some of the Telsa frame is expected to be damaged in collisions.  I get that there are tremendous efficiencies in stamping out a single piece frame for Tesla . . . but wouldn't it be a lot cheaper for the car owner if there was simply a removable part rather than part of single cast design?  Or am I crazy about this?  (I'm not a car guy, just curious.)

FINate

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1692 on: January 24, 2023, 04:36:04 PM »
I don't have to substantiate my concerns.
LOL. Well, thanks for confirming the worth (or lack thereof) of your "concerns". They can go right in the scrap bin along with your personal opinion of "tone" which you mischaracterized as "mansplaining".

Meh, you quoted me out of context. I don't have to substantiate my concerns because the burden of proof is on the side claiming something is a good investment. This isn't specific to Tesla. I don't invest for fun. I've been FIRE for nearly 8 years now and have come out ahead through multiple recessions and panics. It's my livelihood and the "default no" approach has saved me from a bunch of bad investments that would have otherwise derailed retirement. If someone claims TSLA is a good investment because gigacasting, then I want to see compelling evidence for that, which includes refuting valid concerns about repairability among other things such as reasonable estimates on cost reductions and the difficulty of it being replicated by the competition. I'm not even arguing that it's not a good innovation, I just want to see the evidence.   

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1693 on: January 25, 2023, 11:24:41 AM »
If someone claims TSLA is a good investment because gigacasting, then I want to see compelling evidence for that, 
Which makes it puzzling you chose to respond to me. Did I make that claim? No. Seems like another logical fallacy: Strawman.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1694 on: January 25, 2023, 11:53:12 AM »
Note to self:
Do not invest your money into companies where other people invest their emotions (love or hate).

TSLA 52 week performance as of today: -54%.

FINate

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1695 on: January 25, 2023, 02:08:45 PM »
If someone claims TSLA is a good investment because gigacasting, then I want to see compelling evidence for that, 
Which makes it puzzling you chose to respond to me. Did I make that claim? No. Seems like another logical fallacy: Strawman.

Asking for evidence/data isn't a strawman.

For all the reasons I've listed on this thread, TSLA just isn't for me. You don't need to convince me otherwise, nor do I think you're wrong to be invested in Tesla. Most of my investing energy goes into trying to prove myself wrong w.r.t. investment ideas, so please don't view my skepticism as just hating on TSLA. You may even make a ton of money and I'll be genuinely happy for you without a hint of FOMO. Years ago I made peace with the fact that I'm making decisions that are right for my specific situation with the information available at the time. You're on a different path and have a different perspective, and that's also fine.
« Last Edit: January 25, 2023, 03:25:32 PM by FINate »

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1696 on: January 25, 2023, 08:46:59 PM »
nor do I think you're wrong to be invested in Tesla.
Do you even read? Or are you insinuating that I was lying when I said I don't have any investment in Tesla beyond whatever happens to be in VTI?

FINate

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1697 on: January 25, 2023, 09:13:56 PM »
nor do I think you're wrong to be invested in Tesla.
Do you even read? Or are you insinuating that I was lying when I said I don't have any investment in Tesla beyond whatever happens to be in VTI?

Apologies, I don't follow every  sub-thread of discussion closely (in this case, between you and ChpBstrd) or commit to memory who's invested in what. So let me restate: I don't think anyone here who happens to be invested in TSLA is wrong.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1698 on: January 25, 2023, 10:34:17 PM »
Note to self:
Do not invest your money into companies where other people invest their emotions (love or hate).

TSLA 52 week performance as of today: -54%.

YTD - 37%
5 YR - 532%
IPO - 11,184%

It’s a rather weak and frankly insulting argument to accuse Tesla investors of “investing their emotions” simply because you do not see the value. I didn’t invest in Apple. I didn’t get it, but I didn’t accuse Apple investors of being Steve Jobs fan boys, go getting lucky, or of investing emotionally to make myself feel better. Good for those who had the foresight.

I’ve been invested in Tesla since 2013. Almost a decade. It’s my lack of emotion that has allowed me to focus on the signal, ignore all the noise, and stay invested through all the turbulence.

Tesla grew revenue 51% YOY. Now, that kinda growth from a megacap does bring a tear to my eye : )

theoverlook

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1699 on: January 26, 2023, 08:12:21 AM »
Oh, and if you bend the frame on most modern cars, it's scrap.

Quote
The crash absorption rails can be cut off & replaced with a bolted part for collision repair

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1313874241134063616?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1313874241134063616%7Ctwgr%5E972da973ff329d2f8f0c0762c638720397a9788c%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.teslarati.com%2Ftesla-single-cast-collision-repair-strategy-elon-musk%2F


Why is Musk talking about cutting chunks of Tesla frames off for repairs?  Certainly makes it seem like some of the Telsa frame is expected to be damaged in collisions.  I get that there are tremendous efficiencies in stamping out a single piece frame for Tesla . . . but wouldn't it be a lot cheaper for the car owner if there was simply a removable part rather than part of single cast design?  Or am I crazy about this?  (I'm not a car guy, just curious.)
I am a car guy, and Musk is an idiot. Nobody is bolting on replacement frame pieces in a modern car. A bent frame (in as much as any modern car has a frame, all Teslas are really a unibody with no distinct frame) can either be straightened on a frame rack or the car is totaled. That is not unique to a Tesla. Replacing major chassis structure just isn't done, at least in America, at any scale. With body shops charging hundreds of dollars per hour and liability for any injuries in that car passing to any and every party involved in the repair, it just doesn't make sense financially for the insurance companies to do it. So they send it to auction with a salvage title and pass the liability on.