Author Topic: Is Tesla a good investment?  (Read 417372 times)

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1350 on: December 06, 2022, 11:51:33 AM »
One thing on the twitter I'm uncertain of, it all seems focused on US politics. Are other countries impacted on the negative sentiments? Seems like there are certain elements that may impact globally, but certainly not the whole thing.

The issues with Twitter, at their base, are inherent to the attention economy. Twitters (and social media in general) primary goal as a platform is to keep people engaged. The more users and engagement it has, the better. The quality of the engagement does not matter as a base metric. Algorithms are designed to increase engagement. As a side effect, our base human condition and psychology is drawn to outrage more than anything else. We engage way more (dislikes, comments, screen time) with offensive news than we do with good news. This in turn creates a lot of very riled up people who start to create "us vs them" groups who otherwise wouldn't have such a controversial view of the world. Being that it's a psychological phenomenon, to the extent that other countries are on SM they are susceptible. It's the primary reason I don't think anyone can "fix" Twitter without being overridden by another social media company with less noble goals.

This is a long winded way of saying that the inherent design of Twitter (and social media) makes their issues just as prominent globally as they are in the US. There are extremist groups popping up all over the world.


Back to Tesla, I can definitely see the enthusiasm for the brand if one watches the various youtube videos on Tesla tech (large castings, etc), and I even recall Munro live early episodes criticizing Tesla production. I haven't check in in awhile, they sure have changed their tune! Pretty exciting stuff. Still not sure how that translates to 10x valuation of Ford or GM for the general public, but I can see the appeal.

thanks, I was specifically referring to the potential EV customers who have taken a never tesla stance or are becoming more hesitant due to musk's shananigans on twitter. While it may impact sales in the US, I was thinking that globally it may not be as significant. But it may be! I don't follow social media much at all, but some of the headlines on articles about this w/could be global issues.




Niceday

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1351 on: December 06, 2022, 01:34:25 PM »
My personal forward P/E for 2023 is 19. Remember when Morningstar's Forward P/E for 2022 was well over 100? Even with TSLA at all time highs, that was way off. I'd take any future valuation factory number with a grain of salt. They aren't doing the research. TBF, 33.56 is certainly going to be closer, but I wouldn't hang my hat on it.
Yahoo Finance, Morningstar, Y-charts all have TSLA price/earnings of 55-60.  While you're picking on Morningstar, there doesn't seem to be big differences between those three - with Mornigstar having the median P/E value of 56.  To me it makes more sense to trust their data than someone's "personal forward P/E".

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/key-statistics?p=TSLA
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnas/tsla/valuation
https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/pe_ratio

Most websites use stale data. The current PE with today's price is 178 / (.85+1.07+.76+1.05) = 48.

The forward PE is based on the estimated earnings and is anybody's guess. If Tesla continues to deliver strong revenue and earnings growth, it will continue to be rewarded with a PE higher than those of Ford and GM, especially when the last 2 have billions of debt. Even if a recession materializes, Tesla will still do better than F and GM.

We will have a turbulent market in the next 12 months but the short-term fluctuations really don't matter if you take a long term view.

NorCal

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1352 on: December 06, 2022, 02:07:14 PM »
One thing on the twitter I'm uncertain of, it all seems focused on US politics. Are other countries impacted on the negative sentiments? Seems like there are certain elements that may impact globally, but certainly not the whole thing.

The issues with Twitter, at their base, are inherent to the attention economy. Twitters (and social media in general) primary goal as a platform is to keep people engaged. The more users and engagement it has, the better. The quality of the engagement does not matter as a base metric. Algorithms are designed to increase engagement. As a side effect, our base human condition and psychology is drawn to outrage more than anything else. We engage way more (dislikes, comments, screen time) with offensive news than we do with good news. This in turn creates a lot of very riled up people who start to create "us vs them" groups who otherwise wouldn't have such a controversial view of the world. Being that it's a psychological phenomenon, to the extent that other countries are on SM they are susceptible. It's the primary reason I don't think anyone can "fix" Twitter without being overridden by another social media company with less noble goals.

This is a long winded way of saying that the inherent design of Twitter (and social media) makes their issues just as prominent globally as they are in the US. There are extremist groups popping up all over the world.


Back to Tesla, I can definitely see the enthusiasm for the brand if one watches the various youtube videos on Tesla tech (large castings, etc), and I even recall Munro live early episodes criticizing Tesla production. I haven't check in in awhile, they sure have changed their tune! Pretty exciting stuff. Still not sure how that translates to 10x valuation of Ford or GM for the general public, but I can see the appeal.

thanks, I was specifically referring to the potential EV customers who have taken a never tesla stance or are becoming more hesitant due to musk's shananigans on twitter. While it may impact sales in the US, I was thinking that globally it may not be as significant. But it may be! I don't follow social media much at all, but some of the headlines on articles about this w/could be global issues.

This is absolutely a thing, but it's too early to tell if it's a major shift or a rounding error.

If taking a long term view, I think Musk would be fired by the board if it became enough of an issue to impact the overall growth story.

While it would lead to some short term volatility, I think this would probably be the best outcome for long term shareholders.

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1353 on: December 06, 2022, 02:14:26 PM »
This is absolutely a thing, but it's too early to tell if it's a major shift or a rounding error.

If taking a long term view, I think Musk would be fired by the board if it became enough of an issue to impact the overall growth story.

While it would lead to some short term volatility, I think this would probably be the best outcome for long term shareholders.

I'm not very bullish on Tesla and I think his current antics have very little long term influence. People would get over it pretty quickly if a 25K model 2 came out.

NorCal

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1354 on: December 06, 2022, 04:25:22 PM »
This is absolutely a thing, but it's too early to tell if it's a major shift or a rounding error.

If taking a long term view, I think Musk would be fired by the board if it became enough of an issue to impact the overall growth story.

While it would lead to some short term volatility, I think this would probably be the best outcome for long term shareholders.

I'm not very bullish on Tesla and I think his current antics have very little long term influence. People would get over it pretty quickly if a 25K model 2 came out.

Not to mention that his goals seem to involve making himself an icon of the right, similar to how he became an icon of the left about a decade ago.  There are probably more customers on the right to gain than than will be lost on the left.  But I still think Tesla would be better off with a new CEO.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1355 on: December 06, 2022, 07:56:14 PM »
One thing on the twitter I'm uncertain of, it all seems focused on US politics. Are other countries impacted on the negative sentiments? Seems like there are certain elements that may impact globally, but certainly not the whole thing.

The issues with Twitter, at their base, are inherent to the attention economy. Twitters (and social media in general) primary goal as a platform is to keep people engaged. The more users and engagement it has, the better. The quality of the engagement does not matter as a base metric. Algorithms are designed to increase engagement. As a side effect, our base human condition and psychology is drawn to outrage more than anything else. We engage way more (dislikes, comments, screen time) with offensive news than we do with good news. This in turn creates a lot of very riled up people who start to create "us vs them" groups who otherwise wouldn't have such a controversial view of the world. Being that it's a psychological phenomenon, to the extent that other countries are on SM they are susceptible. It's the primary reason I don't think anyone can "fix" Twitter without being overridden by another social media company with less noble goals.

This is a long winded way of saying that the inherent design of Twitter (and social media) makes their issues just as prominent globally as they are in the US. There are extremist groups popping up all over the world.


Back to Tesla, I can definitely see the enthusiasm for the brand if one watches the various youtube videos on Tesla tech (large castings, etc), and I even recall Munro live early episodes criticizing Tesla production. I haven't check in in awhile, they sure have changed their tune! Pretty exciting stuff. Still not sure how that translates to 10x valuation of Ford or GM for the general public, but I can see the appeal.

thanks, I was specifically referring to the potential EV customers who have taken a never tesla stance or are becoming more hesitant due to musk's shananigans on twitter. While it may impact sales in the US, I was thinking that globally it may not be as significant. But it may be! I don't follow social media much at all, but some of the headlines on articles about this w/could be global issues.

This is absolutely a thing, but it's too early to tell if it's a major shift or a rounding error.

If taking a long term view, I think Musk would be fired by the board if it became enough of an issue to impact the overall growth story.

While it would lead to some short term volatility, I think this would probably be the best outcome for long term shareholders.
Again, it comes down to people's willingness to pay massive margins to Tesla for a product that's not like any other.

A lot of fans of Tesla paid the extra money over the past decade and a half to send a signal about how environmentally forward-thinking they were. But now there are lots of ways to own an EV - hell, even Jeep and Hummer are making them. So these individuals are no longer limited to Tesla as a way to send that signal.

There were also a lot of Tesla fans who bought the cars because they wanted to contribute to the success of this scrappy environmentally-friendly startup run by a modern-day Thomas Edison (intentional burn) so that it wouldn't go out of business like AMC or Delorean. Now though, Tesla is becoming just another megacorp, with factories in China and Germany. Additionally, Musk's turn toward the alt-right, disclosures about his sexual ethics, and his new job as the god of Twitter make him look less like a world-saving genius and more like yet another tiresome 2020's narcissistic billionaire.

All the old reasons to pay a few thousand dollars more for a car seem to be fading. Of course, Tesla could become like Apple, and have fans willing to pay twice as much for a macbook compared to an asus, hp, dell, etc. but as with Apple this would have to be based on performance and quality. We'll see!

This is absolutely a thing, but it's too early to tell if it's a major shift or a rounding error.

If taking a long term view, I think Musk would be fired by the board if it became enough of an issue to impact the overall growth story.

While it would lead to some short term volatility, I think this would probably be the best outcome for long term shareholders.

I'm not very bullish on Tesla and I think his current antics have very little long term influence. People would get over it pretty quickly if a 25K model 2 came out.

Not to mention that his goals seem to involve making himself an icon of the right, similar to how he became an icon of the left about a decade ago.  There are probably more customers on the right to gain than than will be lost on the left.  But I still think Tesla would be better off with a new CEO.

I've thought about how to market EVs to the conservative crowd. These folks currently think a V8 powered 4x4 pickup truck with big chrome wheels and a "performance" muffler is the minimally suitable ride for a man to go back and forth to work (assuming he cannot afford a diesel), and a full-size SUV with 3rd row seating is also necessary in case you need to haul all the kids and stuff on a rainy day. One hauls the bloody deer, the other takes the family to church with all the potluck supplies in the trunk.

Perhaps Musk's pivot to the right has something to do with the realization that his currently left-wing market base will not continue to grow in a world where lots of manufacturers are offering EVs. To keep growing, or to at least not be self-constrained, Tesla will have to make a product for rednecks. But the challenge is, these are the people least open to change. In their minds, their dads and grandpas had pickup trucks with V8 gas engines so that's just the way it's supposed to be.

The Ford Lightning may have sold out, but there's still plenty of skepticism and range anxiety from the traditionalists, as seen via articles and social media videos questioning the towing capacity, range, body panel thickness, etc. of the Lightning. Bubba would like to drive 300 miles each way to his hunting plot, and there's no charging plug when he gets there. Yet, he's the future of EV's, and Tesla can't afford not to cater to him.

waltworks

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1356 on: December 06, 2022, 08:48:26 PM »
There's nothing a Trump voter loves more than libtard tears, so if Elon can upset his current customer base enough, that should do it.

But with no way to roll coal... I dunno.

In all seriousness, if you're trying to sell a basic consumer good, you avoid politics and controversy at all costs. Tesla has done well getting free publicity as an upstart, but crazy antics aren't going to work for what's now a blue-chip company. At least I don't think they will.

I'm not an Elon fan or Elon hater (nor am I a stalwart partisan on either side), but I have to admit that the Twitter stuff makes me want to buy a Tesla a little bit less. That's probably not good assuming I'm representative of political moderates overall.

-W

Paper Chaser

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1357 on: December 07, 2022, 05:50:42 AM »
I've thought about how to market EVs to the conservative crowd. These folks currently think a V8 powered 4x4 pickup truck with big chrome wheels and a "performance" muffler is the minimally suitable ride for a man to go back and forth to work (assuming he cannot afford a diesel), and a full-size SUV with 3rd row seating is also necessary in case you need to haul all the kids and stuff on a rainy day. One hauls the bloody deer, the other takes the family to church with all the potluck supplies in the trunk.

Perhaps Musk's pivot to the right has something to do with the realization that his currently left-wing market base will not continue to grow in a world where lots of manufacturers are offering EVs. To keep growing, or to at least not be self-constrained, Tesla will have to make a product for rednecks. But the challenge is, these are the people least open to change. In their minds, their dads and grandpas had pickup trucks with V8 gas engines so that's just the way it's supposed to be.

The Ford Lightning may have sold out, but there's still plenty of skepticism and range anxiety from the traditionalists, as seen via articles and social media videos questioning the towing capacity, range, body panel thickness, etc. of the Lightning. Bubba would like to drive 300 miles each way to his hunting plot, and there's no charging plug when he gets there. Yet, he's the future of EV's, and Tesla can't afford not to cater to him.

I think what "truck guys" want comes down to capability. A lot of the desire for trucks is to own a vehicle that is at least capable of doing work. The motivation behind that is varied of course. And we know that not all trucks are used in that way. But the more EVs that exist doing actual work, the more traditional "truck guys" you'll convert. Add some marketing about how much money it can save over an equivalent ICE, how it can increase your independence from Big Oil, and throw in a dash of patriotism (less impact from foreign countries' policies or whims of oil barons) and the recipe seems like it could work for the most part. I know that I read and hear quite a few "truck guys" that say they're open to and/or very interested in an EV truck or large SUV, provided it could do what their current ICE truck or large SUV is capable of.

Of course, you have to actually make those EVs exist too. They have to tow the camper to wherever, or plow deep snow all day, etc. They have to be used on construction sites, or have ladder racks for contractors, etc. Once the actual workers are driving big EVs, you'll get many of the cosplayer types to follow. I think the Lightning has some very smart features for contractor type work. And the fact that it looks like "a regular truck" has multiple benefits so it's a great start in that direction. But it's still critiqued for lack of towing range, etc by many and they're only just now trickling out into the real world.

The Cybertruck has tons of interest, and it's got lots of "Look at me, I'm a big boy in a big truck!" vibes, but if it's anything like what's been shown thus far it's also limited in the amount of work that it will be able to do. So many traditional "truck guys" are likely to see it as an expensive novelty crafted by tech bros for times when they want to pose as a "truck guy", and less like the "hard working everyman's trusty tool" that average "truck guys" are looking to buy into.
« Last Edit: December 07, 2022, 05:56:56 AM by Paper Chaser »

soulpatchmike

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1358 on: December 07, 2022, 07:39:16 AM »
BYD Executive Vice President doesnít view Tesla as a competitor, because its success means more people are learning about EVs. ďOur competition, maybe our enemy, is the combustion-engine car.Ē

bacchi

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1359 on: December 07, 2022, 07:57:32 AM »
Tesla cuts prices in China, again.

Quote from: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/tesla-stock-extends-slide-as-new-china-discounts-highlight-demand-concern/ar-AA150bkZ
Tesla is now offering further discounts to China-based buyers of its Model 3 and Model Y sedans, provided the purchase is completed by the end of the year.

China consumer EV subsidies end on the 31st. Unless they're renewed, it could lower demand for BEVs, particularly for the more expensive models.

StashingAway

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1360 on: December 07, 2022, 10:47:34 AM »
There's nothing a Trump voter loves more than libtard tears, so if Elon can upset his current customer base enough, that should do it.

But with no way to roll coal... I dunno.

In all seriousness, if you're trying to sell a basic consumer good, you avoid politics and controversy at all costs. Tesla has done well getting free publicity as an upstart, but crazy antics aren't going to work for what's now a blue-chip company. At least I don't think they will.

I'm not an Elon fan or Elon hater (nor am I a stalwart partisan on either side), but I have to admit that the Twitter stuff makes me want to buy a Tesla a little bit less. That's probably not good assuming I'm representative of political moderates overall.

-W

I'm probably in a similar boat, but one reason I have always struggled to buy a Tesla (or Rivian) in a hypothetical expensive new car scenario is more pragmatic. I just have a preference for buttons. I get the UI is great on Teslas, and I get that it makes sense to hone and refine this interface in a self-driving scenario and manufacturing cost, but I love me some good buttons. Being in a Tesla it feels like being in a waiting room and handed an iPad. I think Toyota/Honda are behind a lot on the energy transition, but they make some damn refined interiors. And until Self Driving is fully actuallize, they are safer and more satisfying to interface than a Tesla while driving. Not to be misread as a safer overall vehicle, just safer to interface.

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1361 on: December 09, 2022, 03:10:53 PM »
Tesla cuts prices in China, again.

Quote from: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/tesla-stock-extends-slide-as-new-china-discounts-highlight-demand-concern/ar-AA150bkZ
Tesla is now offering further discounts to China-based buyers of its Model 3 and Model Y sedans, provided the purchase is completed by the end of the year.

China consumer EV subsidies end on the 31st. Unless they're renewed, it could lower demand for BEVs, particularly for the more expensive models.


No doubts about it. Management overestimated China's domestic market here at the end of 2022. The discount was for inventory only so they did not export enough cars earlier in the quarter. TBF to management, the entire domestic market is soft for all manufacturers and not just Tesla. Total vehicle sales in China dropped 9.5% in November despite Tesla having a record month. These are macro problems, but TAM for EVs worldwide is still growing. So now can they adapt better to export timing with growing capacity of other facilities?

US marketshare for EVs hit 6% this year. Total EV marketshare globally is about 10%. If 2023 marketshare for EVs hits 15% that's 2 million additional EVs to be sold in 2023 and not many manufactures have the capacity or cell supply to fill it. US EV marketshare will ratchet much higher next year with the new tax credits and companies like Kia, Hyundai, Toyota, Polestar and Volvo don't have assembly in NA to qualify (currently).

I'm probably in a similar boat, but one reason I have always struggled to buy a Tesla (or Rivian) in a hypothetical expensive new car scenario is more pragmatic. I just have a preference for buttons. I get the UI is great on Teslas, and I get that it makes sense to hone and refine this interface in a self-driving scenario and manufacturing cost, but I love me some good buttons. Being in a Tesla it feels like being in a waiting room and handed an iPad. I think Toyota/Honda are behind a lot on the energy transition, but they make some damn refined interiors. And until Self Driving is fully actuallize, they are safer and more satisfying to interface than a Tesla while driving. Not to be misread as a safer overall vehicle, just safer to interface.

Telsa FSD Beta works 98% of the time. I know the areas I'll need to pay more attention. IMO, because of FSD Beta, it's already a much safer interface to fiddle with as opposed to buttons in any other car (without FSD Beta, you're right). My 2022 Hyundai Santa Fe has plenty of buttons and has similar issues using Apple Car play on screen, but it doesn't have FSD Beta to help around town with. It's not nearly as safe. I'm not an average consumer though and can afford higher end vehicles. My parents are nearing 70 and still do lots of road trips. I'm not going to hesitate to get them a Tesla with FSD when they let me. When they're 80, I'm going to demand it. FSD is going to be so important for elderly drivers.

In general, the kind of ability FSD Beta has today, in consumer vehicles, is unreal. You don't have to put directions in. You can basically use it like autopilot in towns and it'll just head straight, keeping you perfectly centered in lanes if you have a longer stretch like that, handling stop lights and signs. Or you can have it take you somewhere and take over if you have a complicated unprotected left turn or something. Just my anecdotal experience, FSD Beta is right now safer than not having it compared to what it's like to drive my Santa Fe. At the rate of improvement FSD had in 2022, it's really going to be a competitive advantage in 2023.
« Last Edit: December 09, 2022, 03:13:07 PM by lemonlyman »

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1362 on: December 09, 2022, 06:12:30 PM »
a modern-day Thomas Edison (intentional burn)
Anyone even moderately paying attention knows you will get in any possible negative or dig at Tesla or Elon Musk. "Intentional burn" can safely be presumed.

And ignore anything which doesn't fit your preconceptions or claims.

I'm puzzled why you are even in this thread.

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1363 on: December 09, 2022, 11:39:15 PM »
I think itís fine to have opposing views in the thread. Most of the time, thereís just very few numbers used. If people like chpbstrd were really confident, they could short. Would probably incentivize research for better analysis anyways. Just to comment on some common arguments:

1. Competition is coming in 2023. Well, ok. Does that mean Teslaís sales will decline? I donít think so. As an example, The Bolt is great for the price but pound for pound, it doesnít compare to the Model 3 and thatís ok. Itís not supposed to. But the thing about the Bolt is GM has sold ~23,000 this year and next year they are only producing 70,000. They can sell out and thatís a blip in total addressable market if the new tax credits bump EV market share in the US to >10%. There will be other EVs out there in 2023 but they wonít be produced in high numbers. Manufacturers who donít do assembly in the US will struggle more because of not qualifying for the new tax credits. Before EVs are truly competitive with each other as opposed to ICE, all manufacturers have to be able to produce enough to meet growing global demand. Thatís not happening in 2023.

2. Customers are willing to pay high margins. Thatís a nonsensical comment. Customers donít pay for a margin, they pay a price for a product based on all kinds of factors. But margin is determined by price and cost. Teslas operating leverage is growing as Texas ramps. Tesla will reduce the price of its vehicles in 2023 because theyíll cost less to produce: higher operating leverage and cooling inflation on raw materials. Margins wonít really shrink. They might actually improve as manufacturing enhancements like body castings coming to the Model 3 later in the year at Fremont.

3. Teslas are like any other EV. Well, 30 minutes comparing spec for spec is easy. Itís obvious Tesla vehicles have many differentiators in performance, infrastructure and tech for the price. EVs arenít commodities. Consumers look at range, rate of charging, charging infrastructure, 0-60, infotainment, cargo volume, phone support, efficiency, number of seats, ADAS capabilities, ease of purchase, handling, availability, interior design, so many more, AND price.

I think Tesla is poised to thrive in a recession compared to other manufacturers. It has no debt, huge room to spur demand from either price or model configuration, and is one of the few with cars that qualify for the tax credits for individuals and battery manufacturers. Itís not talked about often, but Tesla will also get credits for manufacturing battery components in the US. Iím not sure but I think  most other OEMs will cede those credits to partners like LG and CATL. Panasonic owns a lot of the lines for Teslas 2170 cells used but Tesla owns their own 4680 lines. And those credits will go to the bottom line.
https://www.foley.com/en/insights/publications/2022/10/ira-tax-credits-renewable-energy-component

Paper Chaser

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1364 on: December 13, 2022, 03:31:59 PM »
This was from mid day today, with tech stocks getting a bump after the recent CPI data was slightly better than expected. I thought it was curious.
Is TSLA simply being punished for Musk's outside interests? Is the market starting to view Tesla less like a tech company and more like a car company? Something else?
« Last Edit: December 13, 2022, 03:34:50 PM by Paper Chaser »

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1365 on: December 14, 2022, 10:15:51 AM »
Who knows, but I don't think it has anything to do with a revision to the mean to OEM averages. So far, Tesla has moved in macro ways very similarly to Amazon in 2022. Amazon actually has a PR department tho while the finance and news medias punch Tesla pretty hard at any opportunity because Elon is so visible.


AMZN in red and TSLA in blue.

FINate

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1366 on: December 14, 2022, 10:48:25 AM »
1. Competition is coming in 2023. Well, ok. Does that mean Teslaís sales will decline? I donít think so. As an example, The Bolt is great for the price but pound for pound, it doesnít compare to the Model 3 and thatís ok. Itís not supposed to. But the thing about the Bolt is GM has sold ~23,000 this year and next year they are only producing 70,000. They can sell out and thatís a blip in total addressable market if the new tax credits bump EV market share in the US to >10%. There will be other EVs out there in 2023 but they wonít be produced in high numbers. Manufacturers who donít do assembly in the US will struggle more because of not qualifying for the new tax credits. Before EVs are truly competitive with each other as opposed to ICE, all manufacturers have to be able to produce enough to meet growing global demand. Thatís not happening in 2023.

The competition issue is less about current sales and really a question of future growth. Telsa's PE ratio is currently around 50, whereas for Ford it's around 8. Does Tesla have enough room for future growth to support such a high PE ratio? I'm skeptical. As the BEV market matures Tesla is getting boxed into a shrinking market segment. The Bolt is not a direct Tesla competitor, but it's taking the budget market. On the higher end, actual luxury automakers (M-B, BMW, Audi, Porsche, etc.) are producing luxury EVs (Tesla fit and finish and quality of the interior are lacking). The Overland/Jeep EV market segment is likely to go to Rivian. Competition at the middle of the market is intensifying, with solid offerings from Kia, Hyundai, Subaru, VW, and others. There's growing competition for the traditional truck and full size SUV segment from Ford and GM. And then you have more direct Tesla competitors with the Mach E and Volvo. I have serious doubts about Tesla's potential for future growth and what this means for the stock price going forward.

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1367 on: December 14, 2022, 11:58:04 AM »
The competition issue is less about current sales and really a question of future growth. Telsa's PE ratio is currently around 50, whereas for Ford it's around 8. Does Tesla have enough room for future growth to support such a high PE ratio? I'm skeptical. As the BEV market matures Tesla is getting boxed into a shrinking market segment. The Bolt is not a direct Tesla competitor, but it's taking the budget market. On the higher end, actual luxury automakers (M-B, BMW, Audi, Porsche, etc.) are producing luxury EVs (Tesla fit and finish and quality of the interior are lacking). The Overland/Jeep EV market segment is likely to go to Rivian. Competition at the middle of the market is intensifying, with solid offerings from Kia, Hyundai, Subaru, VW, and others. There's growing competition for the traditional truck and full size SUV segment from Ford and GM. And then you have more direct Tesla competitors with the Mach E and Volvo. I have serious doubts about Tesla's potential for future growth and what this means for the stock price going forward.

I see the narrative but not the numbers. In that point, I was referring to the demand of EVs compared to the capacity to produce them. So Rivian has great products, but they'll likely only produce 50,000 vehicles in 2023. In 2022, 6% is the real EV market share of auto sales in the US. In 2023, it's likely to be 10% with the new tax credits and changing consumer preferences. So if EVs are reaching 1.4 million sales in 2023, take that number and back out stated production from manufacturers. You'll find a hole in supply for that demand. Obviously, real share can't be 10% if the supply isn't there to deliver them, but these are the kinds of assumptions I'm thinking about with competition along with Tesla being one of the few cars to receive the full credit. GMs cars will get only half it until at least 2025, according to the CEO. Because of assembly requirements, Kia, Hyundai, Subaru, Polestart and others get $0 credits (current law and factories).

Tesla is the only one scaling production by the hundreds of thousands in 2023. That's the growth before comparing technical specs of the products.
« Last Edit: December 14, 2022, 12:02:03 PM by lemonlyman »

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1368 on: December 14, 2022, 01:57:08 PM »
Tank, I'm in. >)^[  <---attempt at stern face emoji with matrix shades....??.>


Just picked up my Model 3!

I took existing inventory, demo car with 1100 miles on. 2,450 discount for demo. 3750 Dec delivery discount, so 6200 off what the build price would be.

White, black and white interior, 19" sport wheels, rear wheel drive, enhanced autopilot.

Maybe I should have done a build and canned autopilot? idk! I do eventually want FSD, so a step in that direction? But I was thinking the demo discount paid for the interior and wheel upgrades.

I've got one :)

First impressions, Nice car, love the look of the white car/white interior, everything nice and sleek, some very neat features. Old car was a 2013 corolla base model, so quite an upgrade for me. Driving home it was still just a car, lol! Guess I'll have to live with it a bit through thick and thin and see how it goes.

Very happy with the purchase so far! Next step is tesla roof and get my own charger in 23. Hopefully the powerwall too, or maybe put that for a 2024 purchase, depending on how things go.

They had two chargers suggested when I was online buying but I wasn't sure what the deal was, if I need an electrician to install or what? Yep online said electrician needed.

Theres a supercharger about 6 miles away, so not a huge deal but certainly perfer to get my house outfitted!

FINate

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1369 on: December 14, 2022, 02:11:49 PM »
The competition issue is less about current sales and really a question of future growth. Telsa's PE ratio is currently around 50, whereas for Ford it's around 8. Does Tesla have enough room for future growth to support such a high PE ratio? I'm skeptical. As the BEV market matures Tesla is getting boxed into a shrinking market segment. The Bolt is not a direct Tesla competitor, but it's taking the budget market. On the higher end, actual luxury automakers (M-B, BMW, Audi, Porsche, etc.) are producing luxury EVs (Tesla fit and finish and quality of the interior are lacking). The Overland/Jeep EV market segment is likely to go to Rivian. Competition at the middle of the market is intensifying, with solid offerings from Kia, Hyundai, Subaru, VW, and others. There's growing competition for the traditional truck and full size SUV segment from Ford and GM. And then you have more direct Tesla competitors with the Mach E and Volvo. I have serious doubts about Tesla's potential for future growth and what this means for the stock price going forward.

I see the narrative but not the numbers. In that point, I was referring to the demand of EVs compared to the capacity to produce them. So Rivian has great products, but they'll likely only produce 50,000 vehicles in 2023. In 2022, 6% is the real EV market share of auto sales in the US. In 2023, it's likely to be 10% with the new tax credits and changing consumer preferences. So if EVs are reaching 1.4 million sales in 2023, take that number and back out stated production from manufacturers. You'll find a hole in supply for that demand. Obviously, real share can't be 10% if the supply isn't there to deliver them, but these are the kinds of assumptions I'm thinking about with competition along with Tesla being one of the few cars to receive the full credit. GMs cars will get only half it until at least 2025, according to the CEO. Because of assembly requirements, Kia, Hyundai, Subaru, Polestart and others get $0 credits (current law and factories).

Tesla is the only one scaling production by the hundreds of thousands in 2023. That's the growth before comparing technical specs of the products.

Agree to disagree. 2023 is basically already upon us, so you're essentially talking near-term trends. What will competitive pressures do to Tesla's market share by 2025 or 2030? Just a few years ago Tesla fans were predicting the end of legacy automakers. Tesla had such a commanding technology lead, the theory went, that others would never be able to catch up. Well, they did catch up and consumers have a lot of great EVs to choose from. This is a wonderful thing. Automakers will ramp up production in the years ahead. Managing complex supply and production lines is a core competency of established players. The EV market will grow, but Tesla's market share is, and will continue, being eroded by competition on all sides. This is not to say Tesla will not thrive or that it will be unprofitable. But I don't see enough growth ahead to justify a PE of 50.

Viking Thor

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1370 on: December 14, 2022, 02:52:52 PM »
Tank, I'm in. >)^[  <---attempt at stern face emoji with matrix shades....??.>


Just picked up my Model 3!

I took existing inventory, demo car with 1100 miles on. 2,450 discount for demo. 3750 Dec delivery discount, so 6200 off what the build price would be.

White, black and white interior, 19" sport wheels, rear wheel drive, enhanced autopilot.

Maybe I should have done a build and canned autopilot? idk! I do eventually want FSD, so a step in that direction? But I was thinking the demo discount paid for the interior and wheel upgrades.

I've got one :)

First impressions, Nice car, love the look of the white car/white interior, everything nice and sleek, some very neat features. Old car was a 2013 corolla base model, so quite an upgrade for me. Driving home it was still just a car, lol! Guess I'll have to live with it a bit through thick and thin and see how it goes.

Very happy with the purchase so far! Next step is tesla roof and get my own charger in 23. Hopefully the powerwall too, or maybe put that for a 2024 purchase, depending on how things go.

They had two chargers suggested when I was online buying but I wasn't sure what the deal was, if I need an electrician to install or what? Yep online said electrician needed.

Theres a supercharger about 6 miles away, so not a huge deal but certainly perfer to get my house outfitted!

Hope you enjoy the car!

If you don't drive that many miles, you can get the mobile charger for about $200 and just plug it into your regular outlet. No modifications required. The mobile charger can be useful also for other charging situations on the road.

It will charge very slow that way but for example 12 hours overnight gives you 36 miles.

I don't have a Tesla but considering one next year and that's my charging plan. We don't normally drive more than 36 miles per day. If necessary of course you can just go to a supercharger if it has run down to a low amount.

With electrician you can have modifications done to get much faster home charging.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1371 on: December 14, 2022, 05:21:35 PM »
Tank, I'm in. >)^[  <---attempt at stern face emoji with matrix shades....??.>


Just picked up my Model 3!

I took existing inventory, demo car with 1100 miles on. 2,450 discount for demo. 3750 Dec delivery discount, so 6200 off what the build price would be.

White, black and white interior, 19" sport wheels, rear wheel drive, enhanced autopilot.

Maybe I should have done a build and canned autopilot? idk! I do eventually want FSD, so a step in that direction? But I was thinking the demo discount paid for the interior and wheel upgrades.

I've got one :)

First impressions, Nice car, love the look of the white car/white interior, everything nice and sleek, some very neat features. Old car was a 2013 corolla base model, so quite an upgrade for me. Driving home it was still just a car, lol! Guess I'll have to live with it a bit through thick and thin and see how it goes.

Very happy with the purchase so far! Next step is tesla roof and get my own charger in 23. Hopefully the powerwall too, or maybe put that for a 2024 purchase, depending on how things go.

They had two chargers suggested when I was online buying but I wasn't sure what the deal was, if I need an electrician to install or what? Yep online said electrician needed.

Theres a supercharger about 6 miles away, so not a huge deal but certainly perfer to get my house outfitted!

Hope you enjoy the car!

If you don't drive that many miles, you can get the mobile charger for about $200 and just plug it into your regular outlet. No modifications required. The mobile charger can be useful also for other charging situations on the road.

It will charge very slow that way but for example 12 hours overnight gives you 36 miles.

I don't have a Tesla but considering one next year and that's my charging plan. We don't normally drive more than 36 miles per day. If necessary of course you can just go to a supercharger if it has run down to a low amount.

With electrician you can have modifications done to get much faster home charging.

Thanks, good info! Will think about it, not sure how long it will take me to get the electrician installed version.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1372 on: December 14, 2022, 05:22:20 PM »
meanwhile....been picking up the odd share of tesla here and there.

To add to my collection.

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1373 on: December 14, 2022, 05:51:09 PM »
Agree to disagree. 2023 is basically already upon us, so you're essentially talking near-term trends. What will competitive pressures do to Tesla's market share by 2025 or 2030? Just a few years ago Tesla fans were predicting the end of legacy automakers. Tesla had such a commanding technology lead, the theory went, that others would never be able to catch up.
Not recalling that as a generalized sentiment. Please provide documentation.
Quote
Well, they did catch up and consumers have a lot of great EVs to choose from.
Not recalling that either. Which manufacturers (outside China) do you think have caught up? Maybe VW?

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1374 on: December 14, 2022, 06:20:06 PM »
The competition issue is less about current sales and really a question of future growth. Telsa's PE ratio is currently around 50, whereas for Ford it's around 8. Does Tesla have enough room for future growth to support such a high PE ratio? I'm skeptical. As the BEV market matures Tesla is getting boxed into a shrinking market segment. The Bolt is not a direct Tesla competitor, but it's taking the budget market. On the higher end, actual luxury automakers (M-B, BMW, Audi, Porsche, etc.) are producing luxury EVs (Tesla fit and finish and quality of the interior are lacking). The Overland/Jeep EV market segment is likely to go to Rivian. Competition at the middle of the market is intensifying, with solid offerings from Kia, Hyundai, Subaru, VW, and others. There's growing competition for the traditional truck and full size SUV segment from Ford and GM. And then you have more direct Tesla competitors with the Mach E and Volvo. I have serious doubts about Tesla's potential for future growth and what this means for the stock price going forward.

I see the narrative but not the numbers. In that point, I was referring to the demand of EVs compared to the capacity to produce them. So Rivian has great products, but they'll likely only produce 50,000 vehicles in 2023. In 2022, 6% is the real EV market share of auto sales in the US. In 2023, it's likely to be 10% with the new tax credits and changing consumer preferences. So if EVs are reaching 1.4 million sales in 2023, take that number and back out stated production from manufacturers. You'll find a hole in supply for that demand. Obviously, real share can't be 10% if the supply isn't there to deliver them, but these are the kinds of assumptions I'm thinking about with competition along with Tesla being one of the few cars to receive the full credit. GMs cars will get only half it until at least 2025, according to the CEO. Because of assembly requirements, Kia, Hyundai, Subaru, Polestart and others get $0 credits (current law and factories).

Tesla is the only one scaling production by the hundreds of thousands in 2023. That's the growth before comparing technical specs of the products.

Agree to disagree. 2023 is basically already upon us, so you're essentially talking near-term trends. What will competitive pressures do to Tesla's market share by 2025 or 2030? Just a few years ago Tesla fans were predicting the end of legacy automakers. Tesla had such a commanding technology lead, the theory went, that others would never be able to catch up. Well, they did catch up and consumers have a lot of great EVs to choose from. This is a wonderful thing. Automakers will ramp up production in the years ahead. Managing complex supply and production lines is a core competency of established players. The EV market will grow, but Tesla's market share is, and will continue, being eroded by competition on all sides. This is not to say Tesla will not thrive or that it will be unprofitable. But I don't see enough growth ahead to justify a PE of 50.

I stayed with 2023 for the context of my quote used. Global EV demand is about 12% right now. Up 55% compared to 2021. 15% in 2023 very likely and I think EV demand for 2025 will be 30% globally. Thatís 24 million vehicles. Tesla can be 4 million of that based on their 50% growth targets. 17% net margin on 4 million units? Sounds like good growth to me. What would justify 50 p/e for you? But itís only relevant for another month. Come end of Janurary, Q4 earnings will compress p/e into the 30s. Especially as the price keeps going down, haha.
« Last Edit: December 14, 2022, 06:40:16 PM by lemonlyman »

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1375 on: December 14, 2022, 06:43:32 PM »
Tank, I'm in. >)^[  <---attempt at stern face emoji with matrix shades....??.>


Just picked up my Model 3!

I took existing inventory, demo car with 1100 miles on. 2,450 discount for demo. 3750 Dec delivery discount, so 6200 off what the build price would be.

White, black and white interior, 19" sport wheels, rear wheel drive, enhanced autopilot.

Maybe I should have done a build and canned autopilot? idk! I do eventually want FSD, so a step in that direction? But I was thinking the demo discount paid for the interior and wheel upgrades.

I've got one :)

First impressions, Nice car, love the look of the white car/white interior, everything nice and sleek, some very neat features. Old car was a 2013 corolla base model, so quite an upgrade for me. Driving home it was still just a car, lol! Guess I'll have to live with it a bit through thick and thin and see how it goes.

Very happy with the purchase so far! Next step is tesla roof and get my own charger in 23. Hopefully the powerwall too, or maybe put that for a 2024 purchase, depending on how things go.

They had two chargers suggested when I was online buying but I wasn't sure what the deal was, if I need an electrician to install or what? Yep online said electrician needed.

Theres a supercharger about 6 miles away, so not a huge deal but certainly perfer to get my house outfitted!

Awesome! Iíve never needed a charger. 120 outlet does 50 miles a night. Iíll do it eventually.

Thereís a new tax credit next year for home charger installation.

FINate

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1376 on: December 14, 2022, 06:51:30 PM »
Agree to disagree. 2023 is basically already upon us, so you're essentially talking near-term trends. What will competitive pressures do to Tesla's market share by 2025 or 2030? Just a few years ago Tesla fans were predicting the end of legacy automakers. Tesla had such a commanding technology lead, the theory went, that others would never be able to catch up.
Not recalling that as a generalized sentiment. Please provide documentation.
Quote
Well, they did catch up and consumers have a lot of great EVs to choose from.
Not recalling that either. Which manufacturers (outside China) do you think have caught up? Maybe VW?

The argument was, as I recall, that ICE vehicles were going away very soon, and legacy automakers are at least 10 years behind Tesla, therefore it's only a mater of time before legacy companies start failing, and TSLA would go to the moon! Admittedly, the most vocal proponents of this were Tesla fanbois on forums.

The Mach E comes to mind as an EV that compares very favorably to Tesla. Is Tesla's tech marginally superior in certain areas? Yes. Does it matter? No. The Mach E is functionally close enough to the Model Y to be indistinguishable in the mind of the consumer. Besides, the entire auto industry is less about functionality and more about lifestyle and brand identity. A Toyota and Subaru aren't very different, people buy one over the other based mostly on marketing (suburban moms vs crunchy outdoorsy types). This is where Musk's recent antics with Twitter are going to hurt Tesla the most...  Tesla is intimately connected with Musk, and his core demographic (wealthy coastal elites) are understandably squeamish about Musk. For many, the Mach E has all the range and performance they want, with a large network of dealerships to provide service, all without the Musk baggage.
« Last Edit: December 14, 2022, 07:05:56 PM by FINate »

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1377 on: December 14, 2022, 07:20:41 PM »
Tank, I'm in. >)^[  <---attempt at stern face emoji with matrix shades....??.>


Just picked up my Model 3!

I took existing inventory, demo car with 1100 miles on. 2,450 discount for demo. 3750 Dec delivery discount, so 6200 off what the build price would be.

White, black and white interior, 19" sport wheels, rear wheel drive, enhanced autopilot.

Maybe I should have done a build and canned autopilot? idk! I do eventually want FSD, so a step in that direction? But I was thinking the demo discount paid for the interior and wheel upgrades.

I've got one :)

First impressions, Nice car, love the look of the white car/white interior, everything nice and sleek, some very neat features. Old car was a 2013 corolla base model, so quite an upgrade for me. Driving home it was still just a car, lol! Guess I'll have to live with it a bit through thick and thin and see how it goes.

Very happy with the purchase so far! Next step is tesla roof and get my own charger in 23. Hopefully the powerwall too, or maybe put that for a 2024 purchase, depending on how things go.

They had two chargers suggested when I was online buying but I wasn't sure what the deal was, if I need an electrician to install or what? Yep online said electrician needed.

Theres a supercharger about 6 miles away, so not a huge deal but certainly perfer to get my house outfitted!

Awesome! Iíve never needed a charger. 120 outlet does 50 miles a night. Iíll do it eventually.

Thereís a new tax credit next year for home charger installation.

That would be awesome! And make me quite clever for waiting ;P

I took the 3750 rather than 7500 next year as a bird in hand situation. I wasn't sure about if my income would exceed the threadhold or not. Probably not, but this was a sure thing so took it. I think the roof and powerwall does not have income limits.....but maybe the charger is on the same page as the EVs?

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1378 on: December 14, 2022, 07:58:34 PM »
The tax credit is 30% of the cost of charger and installation up to $1000. Doesnít have an income limit like the cars.

Travis

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1379 on: December 14, 2022, 08:08:59 PM »
meanwhile....been picking up the odd share of tesla here and there.

To add to my collection.

There's a few more on the market this week.

https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1603214433487970305

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1380 on: December 14, 2022, 08:13:32 PM »
Is Tesla's tech marginally superior in certain areas? Yes. Does it matter? No. The Mach E is functionally close enough to the Model Y to be indistinguishable in the mind of the consumer.

Bold claim. 2022 US sales thru Q3:
« Last Edit: December 14, 2022, 08:18:45 PM by lemonlyman »

FINate

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1381 on: December 14, 2022, 08:29:20 PM »
Is Tesla's tech marginally superior in certain areas? Yes. Does it matter? No. The Mach E is functionally close enough to the Model Y to be indistinguishable in the mind of the consumer.

Bold claim. 2022 US sales thru Q3:


I'm comparing tech, not units sold. Regardless, Mach E production is ramping up and Ford is forecasting 270,000 units in 2023 (up from estimates of 200k made earlier in 2021). From the linked article:

Quote
The global all-electric Ford production is expected to reach a rate of 600,000 units annually by the end of 2023 and 2 million units annually by 2026.
« Last Edit: December 14, 2022, 08:30:56 PM by FINate »

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1382 on: December 14, 2022, 11:03:54 PM »
Tank, I'm in. >)^[  <---attempt at stern face emoji with matrix shades....??.>


Just picked up my Model 3!

I took existing inventory, demo car with 1100 miles on. 2,450 discount for demo. 3750 Dec delivery discount, so 6200 off what the build price would be.

White, black and white interior, 19" sport wheels, rear wheel drive, enhanced autopilot.

Maybe I should have done a build and canned autopilot? idk! I do eventually want FSD, so a step in that direction? But I was thinking the demo discount paid for the interior and wheel upgrades.

I've got one :)

First impressions, Nice car, love the look of the white car/white interior, everything nice and sleek, some very neat features. Old car was a 2013 corolla base model, so quite an upgrade for me. Driving home it was still just a car, lol! Guess I'll have to live with it a bit through thick and thin and see how it goes.

Very happy with the purchase so far! Next step is tesla roof and get my own charger in 23. Hopefully the powerwall too, or maybe put that for a 2024 purchase, depending on how things go.

They had two chargers suggested when I was online buying but I wasn't sure what the deal was, if I need an electrician to install or what? Yep online said electrician needed.

Theres a supercharger about 6 miles away, so not a huge deal but certainly perfer to get my house outfitted!

Jealous. Our 2013 LEAF got totaled in August. I wanted a Tesla, but no credit for Tesla in 2022 and I was worried we wouldnít qualify for credit in 2023, so we ended up going with 2023 LEAF that still qualifies for full credit in 2022. If I had known Tesla was essentially going to pull demand forward by offering half the value of the full credit I think I would have pulled the trigger. Oh well... some day. Enjoy your new ride!

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1383 on: December 15, 2022, 04:19:20 PM »
meanwhile....been picking up the odd share of tesla here and there.

To add to my collection.

There's a few more on the market this week.

https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1603214433487970305

Thanks, good to know.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1384 on: December 15, 2022, 04:23:22 PM »
Tank, I'm in. >)^[  <---attempt at stern face emoji with matrix shades....??.>


Just picked up my Model 3!

I took existing inventory, demo car with 1100 miles on. 2,450 discount for demo. 3750 Dec delivery discount, so 6200 off what the build price would be.

White, black and white interior, 19" sport wheels, rear wheel drive, enhanced autopilot.

Maybe I should have done a build and canned autopilot? idk! I do eventually want FSD, so a step in that direction? But I was thinking the demo discount paid for the interior and wheel upgrades.

I've got one :)

First impressions, Nice car, love the look of the white car/white interior, everything nice and sleek, some very neat features. Old car was a 2013 corolla base model, so quite an upgrade for me. Driving home it was still just a car, lol! Guess I'll have to live with it a bit through thick and thin and see how it goes.

Very happy with the purchase so far! Next step is tesla roof and get my own charger in 23. Hopefully the powerwall too, or maybe put that for a 2024 purchase, depending on how things go.

They had two chargers suggested when I was online buying but I wasn't sure what the deal was, if I need an electrician to install or what? Yep online said electrician needed.

Theres a supercharger about 6 miles away, so not a huge deal but certainly perfer to get my house outfitted!

Jealous. Our 2013 LEAF got totaled in August. I wanted a Tesla, but no credit for Tesla in 2022 and I was worried we wouldnít qualify for credit in 2023, so we ended up going with 2023 LEAF that still qualifies for full credit in 2022. If I had known Tesla was essentially going to pull demand forward by offering half the value of the full credit I think I would have pulled the trigger. Oh well... some day. Enjoy your new ride!

hope you get there soon!!


FINate

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1385 on: December 16, 2022, 09:03:04 AM »
This thread has prompted me to do some more reading about current EV offerings (pun intended)... I'm pleasantly surprised by what's out there. Like maybe 3-5 years ago Tesla was essentially the only game in town for nicer longer range vehicles. Now, there are a lot of great options. Motortrend has an excellent list of their top EV picks. Tesla still features prominently, but there's real competition. The Ioniq 5 stands out (though so do others): 300+ mile range, fast charging, under $50k. Very competitive.2023 should be an exciting year for EVs. Good for the planet, good for buyers, may not be great for TSLA though time will tell.
« Last Edit: December 16, 2022, 09:14:23 AM by FINate »

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1386 on: December 16, 2022, 09:59:15 AM »
This thread has prompted me to do some more reading about current EV offerings (pun intended)... I'm pleasantly surprised by what's out there. Like maybe 3-5 years ago Tesla was essentially the only game in town for nicer longer range vehicles. Now, there are a lot of great options. Motortrend has an excellent list of their top EV picks. Tesla still features prominently, but there's real competition. The Ioniq 5 stands out (though so do others): 300+ mile range, fast charging, under $50k. Very competitive.2023 should be an exciting year for EVs. Good for the planet, good for buyers, may not be great for TSLA though time will tell.

Out of curiosity, how are you so confident making arguments about Tesla competitive standing and the industry the past week and you've just only decided to see what EVs are out there? Ioniq 5 is a great car, but it's not a harbinger of doom. Nor are those other models (which have all been available in 2022).

I agree more EVs are good for consumers and the planet. The real issue here is the CAGR for EV demand. Not many companies are set up for that kind of growth or ready to turn the ship on their ICE business.
https://www.einnews.com/pr_news/599894415/at-30-cagr-global-electric-vehicle-supply-equipment-market-size-to-surpass-us-210-bn-by-2030-forecast-report-by-cmi

Back of the napkin math here: Most companies don't have detailed production targets, but we've seen many fumble the ball here, particularly in getting battery supply. Being generous, giving many companies the same production CAGR as Tesla, supply still doesn't meet demand for EVs until 2026 and beyond. But the thing to keep in mind here is Tesla is growing during this period. Most manufacturers are replacing ICE products for EVs at high development cost and high ICE line sunk cost.



The hard thing with current supply numbers is most sites include PHEV with BEV. This is only BEV. Most of BYD sales right now are PHEV. I think that'll probably change.
« Last Edit: December 16, 2022, 10:03:56 AM by lemonlyman »

FINate

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1387 on: December 16, 2022, 10:30:39 AM »
This thread has prompted me to do some more reading about current EV offerings (pun intended)... I'm pleasantly surprised by what's out there. Like maybe 3-5 years ago Tesla was essentially the only game in town for nicer longer range vehicles. Now, there are a lot of great options. Motortrend has an excellent list of their top EV picks. Tesla still features prominently, but there's real competition. The Ioniq 5 stands out (though so do others): 300+ mile range, fast charging, under $50k. Very competitive.2023 should be an exciting year for EVs. Good for the planet, good for buyers, may not be great for TSLA though time will tell.

Out of curiosity, how are you so confident making arguments about Tesla competitive standing and the industry the past week and you've just only decided to see what EVs are out there? Ioniq 5 is a great car, but it's not a harbinger of doom. Nor are those other models (which have all been available in 2022).

It's not that I didn't know what was out there, I just went *way* further down the rabbit hole this week. The more I dig, the more it becomes apparent that the EV market is maturing. My understanding is that this was always a goal for Tesla, to force other companies to design and produce EVs, thereby pushing the entire market forward.

I agree more EVs are good for consumers and the planet. The real issue here is the CAGR for EV demand. Not many companies are set up for that kind of growth or ready to turn the ship on their ICE business.
https://www.einnews.com/pr_news/599894415/at-30-cagr-global-electric-vehicle-supply-equipment-market-size-to-surpass-us-210-bn-by-2030-forecast-report-by-cmi

Back of the napkin math here: Most companies don't have detailed production targets, but we've seen many fumble the ball here, particularly in getting battery supply. Being generous, giving many companies the same production CAGR as Tesla, supply still doesn't meet demand for EVs until 2026 and beyond. But the thing to keep in mind here is Tesla is growing during this period. Most manufacturers are replacing ICE products for EVs at high development cost and high ICE line sunk cost.

Bold claims. Whats your source on this? I will point out again that Ford is expecting to ramp up 600,000 BEVs by end 2023. Ford, unlike Tesla, is not prone to just pulling estimates out of thin air. GM plans to scale BEV production to 400,000 units from 2022-2024 and 1M annually by 2025. Hyundai is planning on scaling to 500,000 BEV units by 2024. Kia plans for 1.2M BEVs annually by 2030. Bloomberg estimates that VW will pass Tesla in BEV production by 2024. I just don't buy that all these companies, with proven track records of managing complex supply and production lines and producing vehicles at scale, are way off in their estimates. IMO, the burden of proof is on you to show otherwise.
 

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1388 on: December 16, 2022, 10:36:32 AM »
Quote
Tesla investors are growing frustrated with a falling stock price and a CEO who is splitting his time between running three different companies.

It's become such that Tesla's third largest individual shareholder, KoGuan Leo, is calling for a new CEO to take over the EV maker, which would allow Musk to focus on his other ventures like SpaceX and Twitter.

"Elon abandoned Tesla and Tesla has no working CEO," KoGuan Leo tweeted on Wednesday. "Tesla needs and deserves to have working full time CEO."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/elon-abandoned-tesla-3rd-largest-individual-shareholder-calls-for-a-new-ceo/ar-AA15kxcl?cvid=e40a32c627044523a1fc2b4b867ae6a2

So we aren't the only ones thinking it!

With Elon banning Musk-critical journalist off twitter, his whole claim to "saving" free speech is completely out the window and he's lost any credibility he had there. Saving? He is actively stiffling it, and in a very egocentric, childish way. These journalist are still going to say it! And now this banning is giving them more amplification. Elon is acting like Twitter is his own private party. He owns it, I know, but as a CEO supposedly trying to run the company profitably, he should be focusing on what is best for the company, not his fragile ego!

I can't even begin to speculate what he thinks is his goal at twitter anymore. But I have to agree with KoGuan Leo that tesla needs leadership, specifically, new leadership.

Musk won't let go I'm sure, with him as chair and brother on the board, doesn't seem likely he could be removed.

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1389 on: December 16, 2022, 10:42:11 AM »
Musk won't let go I'm sure, with him as chair and brother on the board, doesn't seem likely he could be removed.
Eh, you just need to set up a convincing enough Twitter poll. :D

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1390 on: December 16, 2022, 10:45:44 AM »
This thread has prompted me to do some more reading about current EV offerings (pun intended)... I'm pleasantly surprised by what's out there. Like maybe 3-5 years ago Tesla was essentially the only game in town for nicer longer range vehicles. Now, there are a lot of great options. Motortrend has an excellent list of their top EV picks. Tesla still features prominently, but there's real competition. The Ioniq 5 stands out (though so do others): 300+ mile range, fast charging, under $50k. Very competitive.2023 should be an exciting year for EVs. Good for the planet, good for buyers, may not be great for TSLA though time will tell.

Out of curiosity, how are you so confident making arguments about Tesla competitive standing and the industry the past week and you've just only decided to see what EVs are out there? Ioniq 5 is a great car, but it's not a harbinger of doom. Nor are those other models (which have all been available in 2022).

It's not that I didn't know what was out there, I just went *way* further down the rabbit hole this week. The more I dig, the more it becomes apparent that the EV market is maturing. My understanding is that this was always a goal for Tesla, to force other companies to design and produce EVs, thereby pushing the entire market forward.

I agree more EVs are good for consumers and the planet. The real issue here is the CAGR for EV demand. Not many companies are set up for that kind of growth or ready to turn the ship on their ICE business.
https://www.einnews.com/pr_news/599894415/at-30-cagr-global-electric-vehicle-supply-equipment-market-size-to-surpass-us-210-bn-by-2030-forecast-report-by-cmi

Back of the napkin math here: Most companies don't have detailed production targets, but we've seen many fumble the ball here, particularly in getting battery supply. Being generous, giving many companies the same production CAGR as Tesla, supply still doesn't meet demand for EVs until 2026 and beyond. But the thing to keep in mind here is Tesla is growing during this period. Most manufacturers are replacing ICE products for EVs at high development cost and high ICE line sunk cost.

Bold claims. Whats your source on this? I will point out again that Ford is expecting to ramp up 600,000 BEVs by end 2023. Ford, unlike Tesla, is not prone to just pulling estimates out of thin air. GM plans to scale BEV production to 400,000 units from 2022-2024 and 1M annually by 2025. Hyundai is planning on scaling to 500,000 BEV units by 2024. Kia plans for 1.2M BEVs annually by 2030. Bloomberg estimates that VW will pass Tesla in BEV production by 2024. I just don't buy that all these companies, with proven track records of managing complex supply and production lines and producing vehicles at scale, are way off in their estimates. IMO, the burden of proof is on you to show otherwise.

Itís a forecast. If you read the chart, I was very generous on production for OEMs greater than stated goals. I sourced the CAGR. Itís back of the napkin forecast on Total Addressable Market which clearly wonít be accurate but it can be a tool, unlike only your anecdotes and gut feeling. Teslaís production run rates are in the books with 2 factories ramping. 

Whatís there to prove? Itís investing. I donít have a crystal ball. I think the burden is on you to explain how 2022 sales of Tesla was so much higher vs all those competitors you listed. Why is that? Those arenít future vehicles. And even more burden assuming higher market share when hardly any qualify for new tax credits in 2023 while Tesla does. Since you just started looking at EVs in depth, I doubt you've actually looked at production numbers industry wide or really anything else.
« Last Edit: December 16, 2022, 11:00:33 AM by lemonlyman »

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1391 on: December 16, 2022, 10:51:54 AM »
I'm comparing tech, not units sold. Regardless, Mach E production is ramping up and Ford is forecasting 270,000 units in 2023 (up from estimates of 200k made earlier in 2021). From the linked article:
Quote
The global all-electric Ford production is expected to reach a rate of 600,000 units annually by the end of 2023 and 2 million units annually by 2026.
You may not think so - but volume and ramping matters. A lot.

I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla hits that projected Ford 2026 run rate either this quarter or soon thereafter. 3-4 years is a lot of time when you are starting out behind and your competitor has a very long history of ramping production volume ~50% per year (long term average).

It's amusing you take legacy manufacturer projections at face value but dismiss Tesla projections. I point you to the projections GM was making around 2016 about Bolt production ramping quickly. 2017 was peak production year until 2022.

Is Tesla overly aggressive with their production targets? Absolutely. Which is why I try to rely on projections based on historical ramp rate.

EchoStache

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1392 on: December 16, 2022, 11:01:06 AM »
I've been trying to figure out a way to make a Tesla a viable financial solution for an EV for me personally, but just can't get there. 

The very cheapest base model 3 is $51,081 with tax and no other fees, so maybe $51,400, or $43,150 after rebates.  This car would have less range than a 2023 Chevy Bolt that I can get for just under $30k out the door, or $25,500 after rebates.  Well equipped with heated seats and steering wheel.  I personally can't justify spending almost $18,000 more for an EV with less range just because its a little nicer in *some* ways, but worse in others i.e. QC, fit and finish, etc.  The undoubtedly far superior DC fast charging is not important enough to me as I don't do long distance road trips frequently.

To get a clearly "better" car with Tesla, i.e. more range, it would require the dual motor for over $68,000 before rebates, or $60k after......  I just can't personally justify spending $60k vs 30.  The benefits would be:
1)Faster....doesn't matter to me....the Bolt is faster than I need it to be 99% of the time
2)Longer range....this is important to me but not worth $30k
3)Faster charging and better charging network.....great features but I don't road trip weekly.


If the base model 3 were a bit cheaper and hand longer range than the Bolt, it would be more compelling.
« Last Edit: December 16, 2022, 11:30:05 AM by UltraStache »

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1393 on: December 16, 2022, 11:06:29 AM »
I've been trying to figure out a way to make a Tesla a viable financial solution for an EV for me personally, but just can't get there. 

The very cheapest base model 3 is $51,081 with tax and no other fees, so maybe $51,400, or $43,150 after rebates.  This car would have less range than a 2023 Chevy Bolt that I can get for just under $30k out the door, or $25,500 after rebates.  Well equipped with heated seats and steering wheel.  I personally can't justify spending almost $18,000 more for an EV with less range just because its a little nicer in *some* ways, but worse in others i.e. QC, fit and finish, etc.  The undoubtedly far superior DC fast charging is not important enough to me as I don't do long distance road trips frequently.

To get a clearly "better" car with Tesla, i.e. more range, it would require the dual motor for over $68,000 before rebates, or $60k after......  I just can't personally justify spending $60k vs 30.  The benefits would be:
1)Faster....doesn't matter to me....the Bolt is faster than I need it to be 99% of the time
2)Longer range....this is important to me but now worth $30k
3)Faster charging and better charging network.....great features but I don't road trip weekly.


If the base model 3 were a bit cheaper and hand longer range than the Bolt, it would be more compelling.

I'm probably going to get a used Model 3 with FSD Beta included instead of new. They're running about $38,000ish right now; $34,000 with the used EV tax credit. With FSD Beta included, that's what I want for the next 10 years.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1394 on: December 16, 2022, 11:06:54 AM »
Musk won't let go I'm sure, with him as chair and brother on the board, doesn't seem likely he could be removed.
Eh, you just need to set up a convincing enough Twitter poll. :D

on it!!

FINate

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1395 on: December 16, 2022, 11:14:25 AM »
This thread has prompted me to do some more reading about current EV offerings (pun intended)... I'm pleasantly surprised by what's out there. Like maybe 3-5 years ago Tesla was essentially the only game in town for nicer longer range vehicles. Now, there are a lot of great options. Motortrend has an excellent list of their top EV picks. Tesla still features prominently, but there's real competition. The Ioniq 5 stands out (though so do others): 300+ mile range, fast charging, under $50k. Very competitive.2023 should be an exciting year for EVs. Good for the planet, good for buyers, may not be great for TSLA though time will tell.

Out of curiosity, how are you so confident making arguments about Tesla competitive standing and the industry the past week and you've just only decided to see what EVs are out there? Ioniq 5 is a great car, but it's not a harbinger of doom. Nor are those other models (which have all been available in 2022).

It's not that I didn't know what was out there, I just went *way* further down the rabbit hole this week. The more I dig, the more it becomes apparent that the EV market is maturing. My understanding is that this was always a goal for Tesla, to force other companies to design and produce EVs, thereby pushing the entire market forward.

I agree more EVs are good for consumers and the planet. The real issue here is the CAGR for EV demand. Not many companies are set up for that kind of growth or ready to turn the ship on their ICE business.
https://www.einnews.com/pr_news/599894415/at-30-cagr-global-electric-vehicle-supply-equipment-market-size-to-surpass-us-210-bn-by-2030-forecast-report-by-cmi

Back of the napkin math here: Most companies don't have detailed production targets, but we've seen many fumble the ball here, particularly in getting battery supply. Being generous, giving many companies the same production CAGR as Tesla, supply still doesn't meet demand for EVs until 2026 and beyond. But the thing to keep in mind here is Tesla is growing during this period. Most manufacturers are replacing ICE products for EVs at high development cost and high ICE line sunk cost.

Bold claims. Whats your source on this? I will point out again that Ford is expecting to ramp up 600,000 BEVs by end 2023. Ford, unlike Tesla, is not prone to just pulling estimates out of thin air. GM plans to scale BEV production to 400,000 units from 2022-2024 and 1M annually by 2025. Hyundai is planning on scaling to 500,000 BEV units by 2024. Kia plans for 1.2M BEVs annually by 2030. Bloomberg estimates that VW will pass Tesla in BEV production by 2024. I just don't buy that all these companies, with proven track records of managing complex supply and production lines and producing vehicles at scale, are way off in their estimates. IMO, the burden of proof is on you to show otherwise.

Itís a forecast. If you read the chart, I was very generous on production for OEMs greater than stated goals. I sourced the CAGR. Itís back of the napkin forecast on Total Addressable Market which clearly wonít be accurate but it can be a tool, unlike only your anecdotes and gut feeling. Teslaís production run rates are in the books with 2 factories ramping. 

Whatís there to prove? Itís investing. I donít have a crystal ball. I think the burden is on you to explain how 2022 sales of Tesla was so much higher vs all those competitors you listed. Why is that? Those arenít future vehicles. And even more burden assuming higher market share when hardly any qualify for new tax credits in 2023 while Tesla does. Since you just started looking at EVs in depth, I doubt you've actually looked at production numbers industry wide or really anything else.

So your forecasts, based on a report stating 30% CAGR, with Tesla achieving 50% CAGR into 2026. Vs estimates from other automakers as they ramp up. Let's put a pin in this and revisit it next year and see where the market is.

Qualitative analysis (features, technology, branding, etc.) isn't the same as anecdote or gut feelings - these things matter even if they are very difficult or impossible to fully quantify. I think TSLA fans are ignoring (or severely underestimating) the implications of the Musk-Twitter-Tesla association in the mind of consumers. At some point people are going to feel uncomfortable being seen in Twitter cars.

FINate

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1396 on: December 16, 2022, 11:18:42 AM »
I'm comparing tech, not units sold. Regardless, Mach E production is ramping up and Ford is forecasting 270,000 units in 2023 (up from estimates of 200k made earlier in 2021). From the linked article:
Quote
The global all-electric Ford production is expected to reach a rate of 600,000 units annually by the end of 2023 and 2 million units annually by 2026.
You may not think so - but volume and ramping matters. A lot.

I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla hits that projected Ford 2026 run rate either this quarter or soon thereafter. 3-4 years is a lot of time when you are starting out behind and your competitor has a very long history of ramping production volume ~50% per year (long term average).

It's amusing you take legacy manufacturer projections at face value but dismiss Tesla projections. I point you to the projections GM was making around 2016 about Bolt production ramping quickly. 2017 was peak production year until 2022.

Is Tesla overly aggressive with their production targets? Absolutely. Which is why I try to rely on projections based on historical ramp rate.

Agree, volume and ramping matters a lot. But this is something legacy automakers are experienced with.

I have good reason for discounting Musk's predictions. He's pretty consistently over promised and under delivered. It's an issue of reputation and trust.

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1397 on: December 16, 2022, 11:31:13 AM »
So your forecasts, based on a report stating 30% CAGR, with Tesla achieving 50% CAGR into 2026. Vs estimates from other automakers as they ramp up. Let's put a pin in this and revisit it next year and see where the market is.

Qualitative analysis (features, technology, branding, etc.) isn't the same as anecdote or gut feelings - these things matter even if they are very difficult or impossible to fully quantify. I think TSLA fans are ignoring (or severely underestimating) the implications of the Musk-Twitter-Tesla association in the mind of consumers. At some point people are going to feel uncomfortable being seen in Twitter cars.

With that simple chart, I was trying to present an argument for why Tesla will sell their cars AND also believe the OEMs will sell their cars too. You have not acknowledged Tesla's targets and don't take them face value. That's fine. But you're not taking in EV TAM growth into your argument at all. It's like a static thing. GM sells more cars so Tesla sells less. In a static market, that makes sense, but EV TAM is growing rapidly.

I agree qualitative analysis matters. I've posted a lot about Tesla's feature and product differentiation in the past. I own a Model Y. Some of my buddies own other EVs. But if you say they will sell so much that Tesla won't grow, that's the tough claim based on anecdotes and gut feelings.
"This car is great!"
"Does it sell well?"
"No!"
If the products were so good, why are Ioniq 5s on the lots here? That's my question to you. How does qualitative analysis fit there?

I do agree that the Tesla brand is being damaged in a way, but it's not showing up in numbers yet. Agree to wait and see.
« Last Edit: December 16, 2022, 11:34:08 AM by lemonlyman »

EchoStache

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1398 on: December 16, 2022, 11:42:34 AM »
I've been trying to figure out a way to make a Tesla a viable financial solution for an EV for me personally, but just can't get there. 

The very cheapest base model 3 is $51,081 with tax and no other fees, so maybe $51,400, or $43,150 after rebates.  This car would have less range than a 2023 Chevy Bolt that I can get for just under $30k out the door, or $25,500 after rebates.  Well equipped with heated seats and steering wheel.  I personally can't justify spending almost $18,000 more for an EV with less range just because its a little nicer in *some* ways, but worse in others i.e. QC, fit and finish, etc.  The undoubtedly far superior DC fast charging is not important enough to me as I don't do long distance road trips frequently.

To get a clearly "better" car with Tesla, i.e. more range, it would require the dual motor for over $68,000 before rebates, or $60k after......  I just can't personally justify spending $60k vs 30.  The benefits would be:
1)Faster....doesn't matter to me....the Bolt is faster than I need it to be 99% of the time
2)Longer range....this is important to me but now worth $30k
3)Faster charging and better charging network.....great features but I don't road trip weekly.


If the base model 3 were a bit cheaper and hand longer range than the Bolt, it would be more compelling.

I'm probably going to get a used Model 3 with FSD Beta included instead of new. They're running about $38,000ish right now; $34,000 with the used EV tax credit. With FSD Beta included, that's what I want for the next 10 years.

Hmm, this is more appealing.. I do see a 2019 LR AWD with 25k for $38k.  Benefits (compared to new Bolt)

1)AWD
2)Faster
3)Longer range
4)Better/faster DC charging

So $34k vs $26k for brand new Bolt...now we're within $8k.  A much better value proposition

FINate

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #1399 on: December 16, 2022, 11:57:39 AM »
So your forecasts, based on a report stating 30% CAGR, with Tesla achieving 50% CAGR into 2026. Vs estimates from other automakers as they ramp up. Let's put a pin in this and revisit it next year and see where the market is.

Qualitative analysis (features, technology, branding, etc.) isn't the same as anecdote or gut feelings - these things matter even if they are very difficult or impossible to fully quantify. I think TSLA fans are ignoring (or severely underestimating) the implications of the Musk-Twitter-Tesla association in the mind of consumers. At some point people are going to feel uncomfortable being seen in Twitter cars.

With that simple chart, I was trying to present an argument for why Tesla will sell their cars AND also believe the OEMs will sell their cars too. You have not acknowledged Tesla's targets and don't take them face value. That's fine. But you're not taking in EV TAM growth into your argument at all. It's like a static thing. GM sells more cars so Tesla sells less. In a static market, that makes sense, but EV TAM is growing rapidly.

I agree qualitative analysis matters. I've posted a lot about Tesla's feature and product differentiation in the past. I own a Model Y. Some of my buddies own other EVs. But if you say they will sell so much that Tesla won't grow, that's the tough claim based on anecdotes and gut feelings.
"This car is great!"
"Does it sell well?"
"No!"
If the products were so good, why are Ioniq 5s on the lots here? That's my question to you. How does qualitative analysis fit there?

I do agree that the Tesla brand is being damaged in a way, but it's not showing up in numbers yet. Agree to wait and see.

As mentioned up thread, I have reasons for not taking Musk (and by implication, Tesla) at face value.

I understand your forecast and acknowledge it, but also recognize that this is based on a 30% CAGR for the BEV market AND Tesla's volume growing faster than the total market at 50%. Whereas S&P estimates that Tesla's market share will drop to 20% by 2025. I think we'll have to wait and see who is right.

To be clear, I don't think Tesla will become unprofitable anytime soon, and I do believe their volumes will continue to increase. But will it increase fast enough to justify the stock's very high PE ratio. Put another way, TSLA's valuation is higher than the other top 4 automakers COMBINED. From an investment point of view, it's an outlier and not in a good way.
« Last Edit: December 16, 2022, 12:00:36 PM by FINate »

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!