Author Topic: Is Tesla a good investment?  (Read 113774 times)

sherr

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #500 on: September 23, 2020, 02:28:22 PM »
More lies from Musk & Co. yesterday.

Where are the robotaxis?   Where is the semi that was supposed to be into production by 2019?  Where is the coast to coast fully autonomous trip that was supposed to be completed by 2018?  Where is the new gen Roadster that was supposed to be out in 2020?  Where is the 620 mile range that was "for sure" going to happen by 2017?  Where are the 10k/week Model 3s out of Fremont that "zero doubt" was happening by 2018?  Where are the solar roofs?

Musk and TSLA are built on outlandish lies and promises, which pump the stock.  Then when we get to the point of those promises not coming true, Musk doubles down.  They've mass produced a sedan and a hatchback version of that sedan with horrendous quality issues.  They're running at 1% margins and a 1k+ P/E ratio.  It's a cult stock.

This is tiring. I'm certainly not going to tell people to invest in Tesla, and I'm certainly not going to do it myself, but it's not a "cult stock". Tesla is the leader in the BEV market, bar none, and other things like the solar roofs and self-driving are in fact happening, just not as fast as Ol' Musky projected.

You can point out that it's not a good investment at this P/E ratio without going full anti-fanboy.

JLee

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #501 on: September 23, 2020, 02:37:18 PM »
More lies from Musk & Co. yesterday.

Where are the robotaxis?   Where is the semi that was supposed to be into production by 2019?  Where is the coast to coast fully autonomous trip that was supposed to be completed by 2018?  Where is the new gen Roadster that was supposed to be out in 2020?  Where is the 620 mile range that was "for sure" going to happen by 2017?  Where are the 10k/week Model 3s out of Fremont that "zero doubt" was happening by 2018?  Where are the solar roofs?

Musk and TSLA are built on outlandish lies and promises, which pump the stock.  Then when we get to the point of those promises not coming true, Musk doubles down.  They've mass produced a sedan and a hatchback version of that sedan with horrendous quality issues.  They're running at 1% margins and a 1k+ P/E ratio.  It's a cult stock.

They make one of the best cars I've ever driven.  You can yell angrily at your computer all you want, but the Model 3 is just a spectacular vehicle.

DarkandStormy

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #502 on: September 23, 2020, 02:54:12 PM »
More lies from Musk & Co. yesterday.

Where are the robotaxis?   Where is the semi that was supposed to be into production by 2019?  Where is the coast to coast fully autonomous trip that was supposed to be completed by 2018?  Where is the new gen Roadster that was supposed to be out in 2020?  Where is the 620 mile range that was "for sure" going to happen by 2017?  Where are the 10k/week Model 3s out of Fremont that "zero doubt" was happening by 2018?  Where are the solar roofs?

Musk and TSLA are built on outlandish lies and promises, which pump the stock.  Then when we get to the point of those promises not coming true, Musk doubles down.  They've mass produced a sedan and a hatchback version of that sedan with horrendous quality issues.  They're running at 1% margins and a 1k+ P/E ratio.  It's a cult stock.

They make one of the best cars I've ever driven.  You can yell angrily at your computer all you want, but the Model 3 is just a spectacular vehicle.

Is it a robotaxi yet?

DarkandStormy

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #503 on: September 23, 2020, 02:55:01 PM »
More lies from Musk & Co. yesterday.

Where are the robotaxis?   Where is the semi that was supposed to be into production by 2019?  Where is the coast to coast fully autonomous trip that was supposed to be completed by 2018?  Where is the new gen Roadster that was supposed to be out in 2020?  Where is the 620 mile range that was "for sure" going to happen by 2017?  Where are the 10k/week Model 3s out of Fremont that "zero doubt" was happening by 2018?  Where are the solar roofs?

Musk and TSLA are built on outlandish lies and promises, which pump the stock.  Then when we get to the point of those promises not coming true, Musk doubles down.  They've mass produced a sedan and a hatchback version of that sedan with horrendous quality issues.  They're running at 1% margins and a 1k+ P/E ratio.  It's a cult stock.

This is tiring. I'm certainly not going to tell people to invest in Tesla, and I'm certainly not going to do it myself, but it's not a "cult stock". Tesla is the leader in the BEV market, bar none, and other things like the solar roofs and self-driving are in fact happening, just not as fast as Ol' Musky projected.

You can point out that it's not a good investment at this P/E ratio without going full anti-fanboy.

You answered none of my questions.

If Tesla is manufacturing 1k solar roofs per week like Musk claimed, where are they?

bacchi

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #504 on: September 23, 2020, 04:04:37 PM »
Musk is more of a super-optimistic idea person and that's why he's been so successful.

As we've seen, that's not enough for some investors or analysts, including the S&P committee. The risk is just too high -- optimism and great ideas don't always mean high profits or corporate longevity.

The trick for the early Tesla investors is to realize that trades have 2 sides. One is the entry and one is the exit.

JLee

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #505 on: September 23, 2020, 04:14:41 PM »
More lies from Musk & Co. yesterday.

Where are the robotaxis?   Where is the semi that was supposed to be into production by 2019?  Where is the coast to coast fully autonomous trip that was supposed to be completed by 2018?  Where is the new gen Roadster that was supposed to be out in 2020?  Where is the 620 mile range that was "for sure" going to happen by 2017?  Where are the 10k/week Model 3s out of Fremont that "zero doubt" was happening by 2018?  Where are the solar roofs?

Musk and TSLA are built on outlandish lies and promises, which pump the stock.  Then when we get to the point of those promises not coming true, Musk doubles down.  They've mass produced a sedan and a hatchback version of that sedan with horrendous quality issues.  They're running at 1% margins and a 1k+ P/E ratio.  It's a cult stock.

They make one of the best cars I've ever driven.  You can yell angrily at your computer all you want, but the Model 3 is just a spectacular vehicle.

Is it a robotaxi yet?

Nope. Do you have one? Have you even driven one? Or are you just someone who likes to yell at people on the internet?

DarkandStormy

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #506 on: September 23, 2020, 06:10:30 PM »
More lies from Musk & Co. yesterday.

Where are the robotaxis?   Where is the semi that was supposed to be into production by 2019?  Where is the coast to coast fully autonomous trip that was supposed to be completed by 2018?  Where is the new gen Roadster that was supposed to be out in 2020?  Where is the 620 mile range that was "for sure" going to happen by 2017?  Where are the 10k/week Model 3s out of Fremont that "zero doubt" was happening by 2018?  Where are the solar roofs?

Musk and TSLA are built on outlandish lies and promises, which pump the stock.  Then when we get to the point of those promises not coming true, Musk doubles down.  They've mass produced a sedan and a hatchback version of that sedan with horrendous quality issues.  They're running at 1% margins and a 1k+ P/E ratio.  It's a cult stock.

They make one of the best cars I've ever driven.  You can yell angrily at your computer all you want, but the Model 3 is just a spectacular vehicle.

Is it a robotaxi yet?

Nope. Do you have one? Have you even driven one? Or are you just someone who likes to yell at people on the internet?

I asked you a simple question. How is that yelling lmfao

JLee

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #507 on: September 23, 2020, 07:30:12 PM »
More lies from Musk & Co. yesterday.

Where are the robotaxis?   Where is the semi that was supposed to be into production by 2019?  Where is the coast to coast fully autonomous trip that was supposed to be completed by 2018?  Where is the new gen Roadster that was supposed to be out in 2020?  Where is the 620 mile range that was "for sure" going to happen by 2017?  Where are the 10k/week Model 3s out of Fremont that "zero doubt" was happening by 2018?  Where are the solar roofs?

Musk and TSLA are built on outlandish lies and promises, which pump the stock.  Then when we get to the point of those promises not coming true, Musk doubles down.  They've mass produced a sedan and a hatchback version of that sedan with horrendous quality issues.  They're running at 1% margins and a 1k+ P/E ratio.  It's a cult stock.

They make one of the best cars I've ever driven.  You can yell angrily at your computer all you want, but the Model 3 is just a spectacular vehicle.

Is it a robotaxi yet?

Nope. Do you have one? Have you even driven one? Or are you just someone who likes to yell at people on the internet?

I asked you a simple question. How is that yelling lmfao

Would you like me to rephrase to "type angrily"? Perhaps that's more accurate.

Quote
More lies from Musk & Co. yesterday.

Where are the robotaxis?   Where is the semi that was supposed to be into production by 2019?  Where is the coast to coast fully autonomous trip that was supposed to be completed by 2018?  Where is the new gen Roadster that was supposed to be out in 2020?  Where is the 620 mile range that was "for sure" going to happen by 2017?  Where are the 10k/week Model 3s out of Fremont that "zero doubt" was happening by 2018?  Where are the solar roofs?

Musk and TSLA are built on outlandish lies and promises, which pump the stock.  Then when we get to the point of those promises not coming true, Musk doubles down.  They've mass produced a sedan and a hatchback version of that sedan with horrendous quality issues.  They're running at 1% margins and a 1k+ P/E ratio.  It's a cult stock.

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #508 on: September 23, 2020, 07:40:30 PM »
More lies from Musk & Co. yesterday.

Where are the robotaxis?   Where is the semi that was supposed to be into production by 2019?  Where is the coast to coast fully autonomous trip that was supposed to be completed by 2018?  Where is the new gen Roadster that was supposed to be out in 2020?  Where is the 620 mile range that was "for sure" going to happen by 2017?  Where are the 10k/week Model 3s out of Fremont that "zero doubt" was happening by 2018?  Where are the solar roofs?

Musk and TSLA are built on outlandish lies and promises, which pump the stock.  Then when we get to the point of those promises not coming true, Musk doubles down.  They've mass produced a sedan and a hatchback version of that sedan with horrendous quality issues.  They're running at 1% margins and a 1k+ P/E ratio.  It's a cult stock.

I found some more leads for you to follow in exposing the industry:
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/07/all-the-promises-automakers-have-made-about-the-future-of-cars/532806/
In addition, I can afford to send you a tin foil hat with this year's TSLA gains to help in your endeavors.

Abe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #509 on: September 23, 2020, 07:52:01 PM »
What do you all think about the battery technology they announced? I'm not an engineer but it seems promising. Reports I've read from various outfits suggest its a major improvement in design, but differ on whether Tesla can deliver the improvement gains they predict, and definitely question whether they can be done in the timeframe of 2-3 years. I think this is different in nature than the usual over-promises on the software front, but is a problem that no other companies have successfully tackled in a commercially viable way. Then again, if what they announced does come to fruition, it can pose Tesla to become the (pre-recession 80s) General Electric of the coming century. Either way, I think this will depress sales until the new technology is mass produced.

DarkandStormy

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #510 on: September 23, 2020, 08:05:20 PM »
More lies from Musk & Co. yesterday.

Where are the robotaxis?   Where is the semi that was supposed to be into production by 2019?  Where is the coast to coast fully autonomous trip that was supposed to be completed by 2018?  Where is the new gen Roadster that was supposed to be out in 2020?  Where is the 620 mile range that was "for sure" going to happen by 2017?  Where are the 10k/week Model 3s out of Fremont that "zero doubt" was happening by 2018?  Where are the solar roofs?

Musk and TSLA are built on outlandish lies and promises, which pump the stock.  Then when we get to the point of those promises not coming true, Musk doubles down.  They've mass produced a sedan and a hatchback version of that sedan with horrendous quality issues.  They're running at 1% margins and a 1k+ P/E ratio.  It's a cult stock.

They make one of the best cars I've ever driven.  You can yell angrily at your computer all you want, but the Model 3 is just a spectacular vehicle.

Is it a robotaxi yet?

Nope. Do you have one? Have you even driven one? Or are you just someone who likes to yell at people on the internet?

I asked you a simple question. How is that yelling lmfao

Would you like me to rephrase to "type angrily"? Perhaps that's more accurate.

Quote
More lies from Musk & Co. yesterday.

Where are the robotaxis?   Where is the semi that was supposed to be into production by 2019?  Where is the coast to coast fully autonomous trip that was supposed to be completed by 2018?  Where is the new gen Roadster that was supposed to be out in 2020?  Where is the 620 mile range that was "for sure" going to happen by 2017?  Where are the 10k/week Model 3s out of Fremont that "zero doubt" was happening by 2018?  Where are the solar roofs?

Musk and TSLA are built on outlandish lies and promises, which pump the stock.  Then when we get to the point of those promises not coming true, Musk doubles down.  They've mass produced a sedan and a hatchback version of that sedan with horrendous quality issues.  They're running at 1% margins and a 1k+ P/E ratio.  It's a cult stock.

Where did I type angrily at anyone?  This is getting weird.

DarkandStormy

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #511 on: September 23, 2020, 08:11:52 PM »
More lies from Musk & Co. yesterday.

Where are the robotaxis?   Where is the semi that was supposed to be into production by 2019?  Where is the coast to coast fully autonomous trip that was supposed to be completed by 2018?  Where is the new gen Roadster that was supposed to be out in 2020?  Where is the 620 mile range that was "for sure" going to happen by 2017?  Where are the 10k/week Model 3s out of Fremont that "zero doubt" was happening by 2018?  Where are the solar roofs?

Musk and TSLA are built on outlandish lies and promises, which pump the stock.  Then when we get to the point of those promises not coming true, Musk doubles down.  They've mass produced a sedan and a hatchback version of that sedan with horrendous quality issues.  They're running at 1% margins and a 1k+ P/E ratio.  It's a cult stock.

I found some more leads for you to follow in exposing the industry:
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/07/all-the-promises-automakers-have-made-about-the-future-of-cars/532806/
In addition, I can afford to send you a tin foil hat with this year's TSLA gains to help in your endeavors.

None of these other companies guaranteed level 5 autonomy (robotaxis) this year.

Is that coast to coast autonomous trip completed yet? Was supposed to be 2017 maybe, 2018 definitely.

KungfuRabbit

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #512 on: September 30, 2020, 10:03:01 AM »

[/quote]

None of these other companies guaranteed level 5 autonomy (robotaxis) this year.

Is that coast to coast autonomous trip completed yet? Was supposed to be 2017 maybe, 2018 definitely.
[/quote]

The car is 100% for sure fully capable of driving autonomously coast to coast, right now.  Using that statement as a knock against Tesla is just silly. 

In Q2 of 2020 Tesla's real world real driving data showed 1 car accident every 4.53 miles driven with autopilot engaged, compared to the national average of 1 accident per 479,000 miles driven.  This is real actual data, not some simulation or estimation.   

So RIGHT NOW autopilot gets in 10 times fewer accidents than a human driver. 

The problem is people focus on the accidents.  So yea, Teslas on autopilot have crashed, but guess what - there would have been 10 times more crashes if they hadn't been on autopilot, and humans are just bad at wrapping their heads around that. 

Elon calls it a problem of how many 9s people expect.  Going from 99% accident free to 99.9% to 99.99% to 99.999% is a really big step each time. 

So since you are clearly a skeptic, what is your answer?  Statistics clearly show autopilot is 10 times better right now, do you need it to be 100 times better before you believe in it?  1,000 times better?  1,000,000 times better????  Personally if I had to get in a taxi I'd rather have it be running on Tesla autopilot than a random human driver - and autopilot is getting better every day, human drivers if anything are just getting more and more distracted. 

AdrianC

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #513 on: September 30, 2020, 10:50:42 AM »
The car is 100% for sure fully capable of driving autonomously coast to coast, right now.  Using that statement as a knock against Tesla is just silly. 

In Q2 of 2020 Tesla's real world real driving data showed 1 car accident every 4.53 [MILLION] miles driven with autopilot engaged, compared to the national average of 1 accident per 479,000 miles driven.  This is real actual data, not some simulation or estimation.   

So RIGHT NOW autopilot gets in 10 times fewer accidents than a human driver. 
Is that apples to apples?
Is Autopilot used extensively in urban driving where most accidents happen?

sherr

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #514 on: September 30, 2020, 10:54:38 AM »
The car is 100% for sure fully capable of driving autonomously coast to coast, right now.  Using that statement as a knock against Tesla is just silly. 

What? No it's not. 100% autonomous coast-to-coast would obviously require recharging, which requires navigating intersections and pulling up to the charger.

sherr

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #515 on: September 30, 2020, 11:12:58 AM »
The car is 100% for sure fully capable of driving autonomously coast to coast, right now.  Using that statement as a knock against Tesla is just silly. 

In Q2 of 2020 Tesla's real world real driving data showed 1 car accident every 4.53 [MILLION] miles driven with autopilot engaged, compared to the national average of 1 accident per 479,000 miles driven.  This is real actual data, not some simulation or estimation.   

So RIGHT NOW autopilot gets in 10 times fewer accidents than a human driver. 
Is that apples to apples?
Is Autopilot used extensively in urban driving where most accidents happen?

No it's not, it's "while Autopilot is engaged" which is going to be mostly highway driving, and mostly in the least-dangerous situations of highway and city driving (for example less often in a construction zone than average, less often in heavy rain or fog or snow, etc). Tesla doesn't release numbers more specific than that, so no one knows exactly how it stacks up apples-to-apples.
« Last Edit: September 30, 2020, 11:26:26 AM by sherr »

Paper Chaser

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #516 on: September 30, 2020, 11:40:19 AM »

The car is 100% for sure fully capable of driving autonomously coast to coast, right now.  Using that statement as a knock against Tesla is just silly. 

Per Tesla's own literature, the driver must remain attentive and ready to retake control at a moment's notice. That's not "Full autonomy" according to the SAE, NHTSA, etc. It's only Level 2 autonomy.


Elon and Tesla have great marketing. Publicity and hype can literally generate billions for them. They're not going to miss a chance to show off and build their brand. If they felt confident that the car could do it, I have a very hard time believing that they wouldn't have done it already. Level 2 autonomy is intended to be used as a driving aid to reduce fatigue in simple situations such as long stretches of highway cruising. It's not intended to replace all driving, and it's not capable of handling very complex situations or in some cases, even relatively simple ones like poor road markings.


The problem is people focus on the accidents.  So yea, Teslas on autopilot have crashed, but guess what - there would have been 10 times more crashes if they hadn't been on autopilot, and humans are just bad at wrapping their heads around that. 

Elon calls it a problem of how many 9s people expect.  Going from 99% accident free to 99.9% to 99.99% to 99.999% is a really big step each time. 

The thing is, they don't have to be crashing at all if Tesla had better controls in place. Many of these steps could probably be done with simple OTA updates. All other tech like this has more restrictions in place on the user. GM's Super Cruise is also a Level 2 driving aid. They have cameras in the car that watch the driver and make sure their eyes remain forward and hands on the wheel. They have far fewer miles logged than Tesla, but they also have zero accidents while the system is in use. Waymo is Level 4 autonomy (no safety driver at all) on public roads, and they have a far, far better safety record than Autopilot.
The way that they're wrecking is also important too. Most of the Autopilot accidents that I'm aware of involve a failure to react to a pretty basic driving situation. The human behind the wheel is to blame, but shouldn't these autonomous safety systems be able to see a stationary object the size of a semi that's blocking the road? Autopilot struggles with things that most human drivers (even partially distracted ones) can navigate without wrecking. Wrecks like https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3hrKnv0dPQ only make the general public, legislators, and regulators apprehensive to adopting this tech. It's better for everybody (users and manufacturers) to make sure this tech is developed and applied responsibly, even if that takes a couple of years longer. High profile, easily avoidable wrecks a couple of times per year only hurt the cause.

So since you are clearly a skeptic, what is your answer?  Statistics clearly show autopilot is 10 times better right now, do you need it to be 100 times better before you believe in it?  1,000 times better?  1,000,000 times better????  Personally if I had to get in a taxi I'd rather have it be running on Tesla autopilot than a random human driver - and autopilot is getting better every day, human drivers if anything are just getting more and more distracted.

The thing is, Tesla is contributing to those distracted drivers by placing a huge screen front/center. They're contributing to the problem they're trying to solve by integrating the HVAC controls into that screen, so that if you want to change the temp or where the air is blowing, you have to take your eyes off the road. They're making the problem worse by allowing drivers to mess with functions on the screen (unrelated to operating the vehicle) while the vehicle is moving. Most of the Autopilot accidents that I'm aware of involve Autopilot tech being misused by the driver. Imagine how good Tesla's safety record could be if they put similar safeguards in place that others in the industry already do?
As for me, it's not about a metric of safety, it's about Autopilot routinely doing things that a human isn't likely to do. I want to see it navigating difficult situations equally as well or better than an average human driver (pretty low bar). When I see videos of it failing to see a stationary object (like a tipped over truck that's 9ft tall and 20 ft wide) in broad daylight, that's not going to cut it for me to trust it with my life or my families. I'd be more comfortable using it as it's intended use (augmented cruise control), but that breeds complacency too, which can lead to situations where the driver needs to take over, but isn't prepared to do so. There's a growing contingent of people in the car world that say we shouldn't be allowing public use of anything between level 1 autonomy and level 5 autonomy on public roads. There just aren't enough safeguards in place, and drivers are assuming the tech is more capable than it is at this time.
« Last Edit: September 30, 2020, 11:48:25 AM by Paper Chaser »

sherr

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #517 on: September 30, 2020, 11:55:36 AM »
The thing is, Tesla is contributing to those distracted drivers by placing a huge screen front/center. They're contributing to the problem they're trying to solve by integrating the HVAC controls into that screen, so that if you want to change the temp or where the air is blowing, you have to take your eyes off the road. They're making the problem worse by allowing drivers to mess with functions on the screen (unrelated to operating the vehicle) while the vehicle is moving. Most of the Autopilot accidents that I'm aware of involve Autopilot tech being misused by the driver. Imagine how good Tesla's safety record could be if they put similar safeguards in place that others in the industry already do?

"Have to" is probably wrong nowadays, because most things you'd actually want to mess with while driving are either automatic (wipers) or can and probably should be done by voice command (manual wipers, music, AC, navigation, calling someone). But yes, they probably should disallow more of the screen options while moving.

I'd be more comfortable using it as it's intended use (augmented cruise control), but that breeds complacency too, which can lead to situations where the driver needs to take over, but isn't prepared to do so.

My experience with it is that rather than breed complacency it drastically reduces driver fatigue, and allows me to be much more aware of situational considerations ("is there someone coming up fast behind me?") than having to focus all the time on keeping the car in the lane. But yes, I'm sure there are a lot of people who misuse and abuse the system. I doubt it will be practical to ban level 2-4 autonomy, so my main hope is that the system continues to improve, and hopefully rapidly, so that the abuse will be less of a problem.

robartsd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #518 on: September 30, 2020, 02:33:08 PM »
My experience with it is that rather than breed complacency it drastically reduces driver fatigue, and allows me to be much more aware of situational considerations ("is there someone coming up fast behind me?") than having to focus all the time on keeping the car in the lane. But yes, I'm sure there are a lot of people who misuse and abuse the system. I doubt it will be practical to ban level 2-4 autonomy, so my main hope is that the system continues to improve, and hopefully rapidly, so that the abuse will be less of a problem.
Level 2 autonomy seems to have the highest risk of abuse. I think eventually new vehicles will not be allowed to offer level 2 autonomy. Yes, enforcing restrictions on using level 2 autonomous vehicles that are already deployed does not seem practical. I hope that most existing level 2 systems are upgraded to at least level 3 as the technology progresses. I think software upgrades enabling level 3 should be free and automatic where possible.

Level 3 has less potential for abuse, simply because the driver has more options that should not be considered abuse. Driver watching a movie, reading a book, texting, etc. is OK up until the vehicle notifies them that they will soon need to take over. I'm not sure how much notice is meant by "with notice" - 15-30 seconds while the driver develops situational awareness before being required to take control seems reasonable to me.

Level 4 should be safe. It might mean the autonomous vehicle decides it cannot proceed and safely stops. I see no reason to ever restrict use of level 4 autonomy. The only difference I see between level 4 and level 5 is that a subset of conditions that are considered safe enough for human drivers to handle are not able to be handled by the autonomous vehicle.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #519 on: October 01, 2020, 07:12:26 AM »
My experience with it is that rather than breed complacency it drastically reduces driver fatigue, and allows me to be much more aware of situational considerations ("is there someone coming up fast behind me?") than having to focus all the time on keeping the car in the lane. But yes, I'm sure there are a lot of people who misuse and abuse the system. I doubt it will be practical to ban level 2-4 autonomy, so my main hope is that the system continues to improve, and hopefully rapidly, so that the abuse will be less of a problem.
Level 2 autonomy seems to have the highest risk of abuse. I think eventually new vehicles will not be allowed to offer level 2 autonomy. Yes, enforcing restrictions on using level 2 autonomous vehicles that are already deployed does not seem practical. I hope that most existing level 2 systems are upgraded to at least level 3 as the technology progresses. I think software upgrades enabling level 3 should be free and automatic where possible.

Level 3 has less potential for abuse, simply because the driver has more options that should not be considered abuse. Driver watching a movie, reading a book, texting, etc. is OK up until the vehicle notifies them that they will soon need to take over. I'm not sure how much notice is meant by "with notice" - 15-30 seconds while the driver develops situational awareness before being required to take control seems reasonable to me.

Level 4 should be safe. It might mean the autonomous vehicle decides it cannot proceed and safely stops. I see no reason to ever restrict use of level 4 autonomy. The only difference I see between level 4 and level 5 is that a subset of conditions that are considered safe enough for human drivers to handle are not able to be handled by the autonomous vehicle.

I think 15-30 seconds is a ton of time when driving for stuff to go wrong. Most emergency situations on the road occur in far less time than that. One critical issue with semi-autonomous driving aids is that when they get into a situation that they can't solve, it's going to be a fairly complex situation that a human will suddenly be expected to figure out. So you're basically asking the human to jump in and handle the hard stuff on the fly. If they've been paying attention, it might be possible for the human to safely navigate the emergency or even avoid it entirely, but if the driver is distracted in any way, they have almost no chance of instantly assessing the situation and choosing the best course of action when the car suddenly turns over control.

I realize that this thread is specifically about TSLA, but these advanced safety systems from all manufacturers struggle with pretty basic driving situations these days. We're still a very long way from full autonomy if you can't recognize and avoid crashing into a pedestrian while traveling 30mph in broad daylight:
https://newsroom.aaa.com/2019/10/aaa-warns-pedestrian-detection-systems-dont-work-when-needed-most/

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #520 on: October 01, 2020, 10:30:25 AM »
Also bear in mind that the point of vehicle autonomy would be to let the driver be distracted.

The “benefit” of this tech will be that you’ll eventually be able to scroll through Facebook ads or shop on Amazon during your commutes, activities which will eventually lead to higher spending on your part. Welcome to the attention economy / hell.

A Tesla commute will eventually involve consuming ads during the drive, which will help pay for the ride in a post-car-ownership world. The end game is to create a gated ecosystem where Tesla captures some of these ad revenues.

So you’ll be shuttled around in a vehicle you don’t own, control, or have any way to control, with a screen in front of your face playing ads the whole way. The price you pay for this luxury (sitting and viewing ads is already our main leisure activity, after all) will depend on how long you are willing to sit in the car. Traffic speeds could slow to a crawl if the revenue from targeted advertising exceeds the cost of driving time because many consumer/workers will pick the cheapest way to get to work, which is the slowest and most convoluted route. The things you buy on these trips will further impoverish you, causing you to again buy the cheapest transportation next time which exposes you to the most ads, and so the cycle continues.

Again, bicycle commuting wins.

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #521 on: October 01, 2020, 01:29:58 PM »
Also bear in mind that the point of vehicle autonomy would be to let the driver be distracted.

The “benefit” of this tech will be that you’ll eventually be able to scroll through Facebook ads or shop on Amazon during your commutes, activities which will eventually lead to higher spending on your part. Welcome to the attention economy / hell.

A Tesla commute will eventually involve consuming ads during the drive, which will help pay for the ride in a post-car-ownership world. The end game is to create a gated ecosystem where Tesla captures some of these ad revenues.

So you’ll be shuttled around in a vehicle you don’t own, control, or have any way to control, with a screen in front of your face playing ads the whole way. The price you pay for this luxury (sitting and viewing ads is already our main leisure activity, after all) will depend on how long you are willing to sit in the car. Traffic speeds could slow to a crawl if the revenue from targeted advertising exceeds the cost of driving time because many consumer/workers will pick the cheapest way to get to work, which is the slowest and most convoluted route. The things you buy on these trips will further impoverish you, causing you to again buy the cheapest transportation next time which exposes you to the most ads, and so the cycle continues.

Again, bicycle commuting wins.

That’s a rather cynical vision of the “benefit”. Distraction is one facet. Can also be used to transit goods, handicapped individuals, or the elderly in addition to reducing cost for people in general. Sometimes people who are very upset need to go somewhere. You could also use the free time to be productive, creative, or give another passenger your full attention in conversation. What you’re saying is likely to happen, but I would disagree in describing the tech as a pseudo benefit.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #522 on: October 01, 2020, 02:50:00 PM »
Also bear in mind that the point of vehicle autonomy would be to let the driver be distracted.

The “benefit” of this tech will be that you’ll eventually be able to scroll through Facebook ads or shop on Amazon during your commutes, activities which will eventually lead to higher spending on your part. Welcome to the attention economy / hell.

A Tesla commute will eventually involve consuming ads during the drive, which will help pay for the ride in a post-car-ownership world. The end game is to create a gated ecosystem where Tesla captures some of these ad revenues.

So you’ll be shuttled around in a vehicle you don’t own, control, or have any way to control, with a screen in front of your face playing ads the whole way. The price you pay for this luxury (sitting and viewing ads is already our main leisure activity, after all) will depend on how long you are willing to sit in the car. Traffic speeds could slow to a crawl if the revenue from targeted advertising exceeds the cost of driving time because many consumer/workers will pick the cheapest way to get to work, which is the slowest and most convoluted route. The things you buy on these trips will further impoverish you, causing you to again buy the cheapest transportation next time which exposes you to the most ads, and so the cycle continues.

Again, bicycle commuting wins.

That’s a rather cynical vision of the “benefit”. Distraction is one facet. Can also be used to transit goods, handicapped individuals, or the elderly in addition to reducing cost for people in general. Sometimes people who are very upset need to go somewhere. You could also use the free time to be productive, creative, or give another passenger your full attention in conversation. What you’re saying is likely to happen, but I would disagree in describing the tech as a pseudo benefit.

It will be great for some people, but in the tech industry every free benefit that has ever been offered has come with a hidden cost. Your Google searches are used to serve up more targeted ads that will eventually succeed in parting you from your money or vote. Your iPhone is full of free features that lock you into a closed ecosystem that directs your spending. And of course the free social media products are addictive, depressive, and extremist. Why will transportation not be monetized the same way? Expecting people to pay for their transportation directly and in cash is like expecting a social media company to start charging $20/month or YouTube to require a quick payment of 5 cents per video. I’m sure such services would be excellent and very customer-centric, but nobody’s buying them even today.

GreenEggs

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #523 on: November 16, 2020, 04:18:34 PM »
Seems TSLA just jumped 13.5% after hours.  Wonder why?

v8rx7guy

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #524 on: November 16, 2020, 04:23:10 PM »
Seems TSLA just jumped 13.5% after hours.  Wonder why?

A quick Google search says that TSLA is being added to the S&P500

Pizzabrewer

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #525 on: November 16, 2020, 05:28:45 PM »
I lucked out. I bought 4 weekly calls today, $440 strike, at $1.17. I’ve been losing $300-500 most weeks playing TSLA options but this will make it all up and more.

ender

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #526 on: November 17, 2020, 06:57:32 AM »
I think the answer to this thread is conclusively "yes" tesla was a good investment. hah.

talltexan

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #527 on: November 17, 2020, 07:08:26 AM »
I wonder if the SpaceX news had anything to do with this increase?

sherr

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #528 on: November 17, 2020, 07:36:39 AM »
I wonder if the SpaceX news had anything to do with this increase?

It shouldn't, SpaceX is a separate (private) company.

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #529 on: November 17, 2020, 08:21:01 AM »
Tesla's market cap would be 1.1% weighted in $5 trillion of S&P indices. $55 billion worth of shares need to be represented over the next few months, $20 billion is currently short, and most shares are long. Q4 will be record profit. So movement is completely unpredictable because of covid short term, but seems like there are tail winds generally.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #530 on: November 17, 2020, 08:30:07 AM »
This is one of those times I am quite happy that I am invested in the Total Stock Index fund rather than the S&P500 index fund... I've been riding this TSLA wave all of the way up somewhat unintentionally.  There's going to be a lot of people buying high with their S&P500 Index Funds... but that's not to say it is the top by any means for TSLA.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #531 on: November 19, 2020, 11:37:59 AM »
This is one of those times I am quite happy that I am invested in the Total Stock Index fund rather than the S&P500 index fund... I've been riding this TSLA wave all of the way up somewhat unintentionally.  There's going to be a lot of people buying high with their S&P500 Index Funds... but that's not to say it is the top by any means for TSLA.

wow - never thought of it in this way, insightful!

Thanks! :)

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #532 on: November 19, 2020, 06:06:24 PM »
Quote
Tesla shares surged as much as 5.5% on Thursday after Elon Musk's electric-car company posted third-quarter earnings on Wednesday that beat Wall Street's expectations. The automaker grew revenue by 39% year-on-year to $8.8 billion, which helped to more than triple its operating income to a record $809 million

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-stock-price-jumps-elon-musk-electric-cars-q3-profit-2020-10

so - is tsla in the sp500 yet or still speculating?

and if it goes in, who is it kicking out?? Either past or future tense?


mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #533 on: November 19, 2020, 06:09:21 PM »
Also - wondering - did some of the early investors here hold all the way and/or has tsla propel them to RE?

I think I saw someone say they had 600 shares....before the split...that's like 1.5m now??

Want to hear about it :)

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #534 on: November 19, 2020, 06:57:56 PM »
Quote
Tesla shares surged as much as 5.5% on Thursday after Elon Musk's electric-car company posted third-quarter earnings on Wednesday that beat Wall Street's expectations. The automaker grew revenue by 39% year-on-year to $8.8 billion, which helped to more than triple its operating income to a record $809 million

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-stock-price-jumps-elon-musk-electric-cars-q3-profit-2020-10

so - is tsla in the sp500 yet or still speculating?

and if it goes in, who is it kicking out?? Either past or future tense?

The announcement is that Tesla will be joining the S&P 500, but it's not instantaneous. It goes fully into effect December 21st. This gives funds a chance to rebalance.

The rejected company hasn't been announced yet.

mistymoney

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #535 on: November 19, 2020, 07:18:34 PM »
thanks Tom!

I read this entire thread tonight from start to finish today. Very interesting!

v8rx7guy

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #536 on: November 19, 2020, 09:43:40 PM »
Pretty safe to say that it has been a good investment since the beginning of this thread... it has almost gone 10x.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #537 on: November 19, 2020, 11:03:08 PM »
Also - wondering - did some of the early investors here hold all the way and/or has tsla propel them to RE?

I think I saw someone say they had 600 shares....before the split...that's like 1.5m now??

Want to hear about it :)

I started purchasing TSLA shares in 2013. FIRE'd in 2017. TSLA investment was not central to my FIRE decision, but has provided an added cushion. Currently holding 2,600 post-split shares. Keep in mind I had never invested more than $5,000 in any individual stock before Tesla. There were some serious white-knuckle days along the way. On those days, I reminded myself that having more money in a world where Tesla failed and climate change continued unabated wouldn’t matter or bring me happiness. Making money while investing in a worthwhile mission is very rewarding.

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #538 on: November 20, 2020, 07:40:17 AM »
Also - wondering - did some of the early investors here hold all the way and/or has tsla propel them to RE?

I think I saw someone say they had 600 shares....before the split...that's like 1.5m now??

Want to hear about it :)

I have ~1500 post split shares in retirement accounts and HSA from accumulating through mid 2019. I'm financially independent, but I'm working through the end of 2021 because I've been friends with the owner of the company since we were 8 and he relies on me. We've already talked about it and made a schedule for exiting. Most of the money I made was through TSLA call options this year in my taxable account. My kids are 5 and 2. All the time in the day to raise them this early compared to our original timeline is a dream come true for my wife and I.

Early 2019 was the hardest to hold. Q1 & Q2 2019 was hugely disappointing in manufacturing execution. 2020 has been stellar on all counts.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #539 on: November 20, 2020, 09:42:01 AM »
Pretty safe to say that it has been a good investment since the beginning of this thread... it has almost gone 10x.

Betting on 26 at a particular roulette table in Vegas also turned out to be a "good investment" for somebody during this timeframe. The risk of buying a stock with a PE near 1000 and a dependence upon certain technical and political developments is not fully appreciated. Either winning or losing such a bet seems obvious in hindsight.

sherr

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #540 on: November 20, 2020, 09:45:25 AM »
Pretty safe to say that it has been a good investment since the beginning of this thread... it has almost gone 10x.

Betting on 26 at a particular roulette table in Vegas also turned out to be a "good investment" for somebody during this timeframe. The risk of buying a stock with a PE near 1000 and a dependence upon certain technical and political developments is not fully appreciated. Either winning or losing such a bet seems obvious in hindsight.

Thanks, I wanted to say something like that too.

I'm happy that Tesla's succeeding. I have a Tesla, and I think they're a great company. But this outcome was in no way assured, or obvious, or even likely.

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #541 on: November 20, 2020, 10:30:32 AM »
Pretty safe to say that it has been a good investment since the beginning of this thread... it has almost gone 10x.

Betting on 26 at a particular roulette table in Vegas also turned out to be a "good investment" for somebody during this timeframe. The risk of buying a stock with a PE near 1000 and a dependence upon certain technical and political developments is not fully appreciated. Either winning or losing such a bet seems obvious in hindsight.

You have to excuse me, but I cannot take anyone seriously who is promoting PE as the primary analysis metric for a rapid growth company in a capital-intensive industry.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #542 on: November 20, 2020, 10:52:27 AM »
Pretty safe to say that it has been a good investment since the beginning of this thread... it has almost gone 10x.

Betting on 26 at a particular roulette table in Vegas also turned out to be a "good investment" for somebody during this timeframe. The risk of buying a stock with a PE near 1000 and a dependence upon certain technical and political developments is not fully appreciated. Either winning or losing such a bet seems obvious in hindsight.

Thanks, I wanted to say something like that too.

I'm happy that Tesla's succeeding. I have a Tesla, and I think they're a great company. But this outcome was in no way assured, or obvious, or even likely.

All investing involves risk that can be likened to gambling. Equating investing in Tesla to a spin of the roulette wheel is an absurd comparison though. I didn’t play a game of chance. I made a very educated investment decision and stuck with it for years despite constant naysaying from friends and coworkers. Acknowledging there are factors beyond my control does not make me “lucky”.

I had an investment thesis. I will maintain my investment as long as my thesis holds true and I can answer two simple questions in the affirmative.

Are EVs and battery storage (coupled with renewable energy) the future?
Is Tesla the industry leader in EVs and battery tech/ storage?

My investment thesis and Tesla’s success does not require subsidies (Tesla continues to grow rapidly without Federal US EV subsidies). It doesn’t count on robo taxis or full self driving, the boring company, Tesla insurance, Tesla roof, or Tesla software services.  Chances are one or more of these ventures will also be wildly successful/profitable. To those who did their own research and didn’t let the financial media paint an overly negative picture of Tesla’s prospects, an investment in Tesla once the Model S was successfully launched was hardly as risky as most were led to believe.

I recommend everyone invest in companies whose product or service you understand and appreciate. For me, buying a 2013 Nissan Leaf and educating myself on all the advantages of EV transportation made it obvious that EVs were the future back then. So, I’m not suggesting everyone should have invested in Tesla. This was the one time in my investing life however, where I felt like I had “special” knowledge that even Wall Street was missing with its short term metrics, lack of understanding, and inability to properly value Tesla because they kept trying to compare Tesla to conventional automakers. The modern day equivalent of trying to value Henry Ford’s new car company and livery stables in the early 1900s using the same metrics because they both involved transportation.

Any investment involves some luck along the way, but I also spend time daily educating myself on every aspect of Tesla’s business. I missed the boat on all the FANG stocks, but I give credit to those investors that did see the value early and see no reason to diminish their success by suggesting they won a simple game of chance.
« Last Edit: November 20, 2020, 10:56:03 AM by ColoradoTribe »

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #543 on: November 20, 2020, 10:54:03 AM »
Pretty safe to say that it has been a good investment since the beginning of this thread... it has almost gone 10x.

Betting on 26 at a particular roulette table in Vegas also turned out to be a "good investment" for somebody during this timeframe. The risk of buying a stock with a PE near 1000 and a dependence upon certain technical and political developments is not fully appreciated. Either winning or losing such a bet seems obvious in hindsight.

You have to excuse me, but I cannot take anyone seriously who is promoting PE as the primary analysis metric for a rapid growth company in a capital-intensive industry.

There’s a lot odd about that perspective. Likening investing in a company to a roulette table before even discussing risk is the first. Everything being 100% luck for any investment but your own is good cover for an ego too fragile to ask why some people saw an opportunity and I didn’t. Despite years of arguments documented to look at.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #544 on: November 20, 2020, 01:04:39 PM »
Pretty safe to say that it has been a good investment since the beginning of this thread... it has almost gone 10x.

Betting on 26 at a particular roulette table in Vegas also turned out to be a "good investment" for somebody during this timeframe. The risk of buying a stock with a PE near 1000 and a dependence upon certain technical and political developments is not fully appreciated. Either winning or losing such a bet seems obvious in hindsight.

You have to excuse me, but I cannot take anyone seriously who is promoting PE as the primary analysis metric for a rapid growth company in a capital-intensive industry.

There’s a lot odd about that perspective. Likening investing in a company to a roulette table before even discussing risk is the first. Everything being 100% luck for any investment but your own is good cover for an ego too fragile to ask why some people saw an opportunity and I didn’t. Despite years of arguments documented to look at.
Did you go 100% all in based on this conviction? Are you doing so now?

TomTX

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #545 on: November 20, 2020, 01:41:31 PM »

Did you go 100% all in based on this conviction? Are you doing so now?

Gosh, you really are obsessed with this gambling approach.

Niceday

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #546 on: November 23, 2020, 08:27:51 PM »
Also - wondering - did some of the early investors here hold all the way and/or has tsla propel them to RE?

I think I saw someone say they had 600 shares....before the split...that's like 1.5m now??

Want to hear about it :)

When I first heard about Tesla in 2014, I laughed at the idea.  I thought it was going to go the way of Fisker Karma.  When I took a trip to California in the summer of 2014 and saw a bunch of model S on the road, I thought may be Tesla had a chance.  Hydrogen fuel cell was a competing technology back then but after I read the Musk biography when it came out in 2015, I knew hydrogen fuel cell was a dead end.  I bought my first shares in 2015.  It had been a tough ride, a really tough ride.  I remember thinking that TSLA was such a battleground, so hated and loved at the same time.  It traded poorly in the stock market almost every single day.  I'm sure many of us remember Elon's tweets.  I was like "please don't tweet anything about your company for a few days!!".  I'm glad the company is now recognized, at least by S&P.

PE is really not a good indicator for stock performance, especially for young and growing companies.  Unfortunately, the PE concept might have been popularized in the 1990's in a couple well-known books.  If the stock market was this easy, then a lot of people would be making money by just buying and holding low PE stocks.

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #547 on: November 24, 2020, 08:33:09 AM »
Did you go 100% all in based on this conviction? Are you doing so now?

No.

As I said earlier in the thread, valuing this stock takes looking at where production is going. Right now it's looking like 1,000,000 cars in 2021 at 25% GM. 2022, it'll be +2 million cars. Total addressable market is growing incredibly fast. On the financials, they'll be printing billions at increasingly higher levels because battery costs are falling like a rock. We'll also likely see manufacturing scale efficiencies increase the GM. Further, they're selling a $10k software package whose take rate is growing and soon it'll all go to the bottom line vs deferred revenue. I haven't even added all their ancillary services and products. When you extrapolate these trends through 2025, there's a lot of growth still left here. That's just what I think and could be wrong of course, but implying investing in a stock is all luck is farcical and self-limiting.

lemonlyman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #548 on: November 24, 2020, 09:00:17 AM »
I don't think forward P/E is a "backward looking instrument".
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/forwardpe.asp
"Forward price-to-earnings (forward P/E) is a version of the ratio of price-to-earnings (P/E) that uses forecasted earnings for the P/E calculation."

I disagree that a forward P/E of 345 (average of Yahoo and Morningstar) is "low P/E".  A hint that you're wrong is in your example, where even Amazon has a forward P/E of 149.25.  Amazon is the #3 holding in Vanguard Growth ETF, with the other two being Microsoft (fwd P/E 34.1) and Apple (fwd P/E 25.5).  I can keep pointing to growth stocks which have forward P/E below 345, if you want to argue about "value" vs "growth" stocks.

So I think you're wrong about P/E:  Tesla's forward P/E ratio is extreme.  You call everything below 345 "low P/E", even though almost all of the S&P 500 would be "low P/E" by that usage.

It's also interesting that nobody in favor of Tesla compares it to other automobile makers.  I ask repeatedly which company should Tesla be compared to, and the only answer I've gotten is Amazon.  Tesla, the car maker, should be compared to Amazon, the online sales giant.  Which again, to me makes no sense.

Tesla's "forward P/E" is now less than Amazon's even as its price has climbed. It's 3x less at Morningstar and 2x less at Yahoo compared to July. Neither institution releases what they used for production, expenses or revenue. If you can't tell how they came up with the number, don't use it.

ender

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #549 on: November 24, 2020, 09:05:23 AM »
P/E is also a bit misleading because a company that heavily invests in itself and future growth will have a much worse P/E ratio than a company that just hoards cash.

Amazon and Tesla are both companies that have dumped huge amounts of money into growing their business.

Telsa's P/E being 345 or whatever "very high" number it is matters much less if it has a clear plan where it can be reduced significantly in the next few years.