Author Topic: Is Tesla a good investment?  (Read 612602 times)

reeshau

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3100 on: May 25, 2025, 08:55:25 AM »

Quote
Also, their Austin taxis will be Model Y's, since the robotaxi, with no steering wheel, can't have a safety driver.  It would be an interesting paradox to see robotaxi production start, sinking all that capital, but without a system ready to utilize them.  Would even Elon have that much hubris?

That's rhetorical, right?

Just boggling, is all.  Tesla came near bankruptcy 3 times, up through the launch of the Model 3.  Elon, like so many tech entrepreneurs, succeeded by taking tremendous risks.  He certainly has not shown any change in that mindset.  Tying up Tesla's cash in non-productive cyber cabs could cause a new cash crisis, if sales continue to slump, and the renewable energy credits are killed in the new budget.

Telecaster

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3101 on: May 25, 2025, 10:08:16 AM »
Tesla did apply in California, which was approved in March.

To be clear, the permit was not for ride hailing.   The permit allows them to pick up employees.   As far as know, Tesla has not yet applied for a ride hailing permit in California. 

Telecaster

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3102 on: May 25, 2025, 11:15:07 AM »
Also, their Austin taxis will be Model Y's, since the robotaxi, with no steering wheel, can't have a safety driver.  It would be an interesting paradox to see robotaxi production start, sinking all that capital, but without a system ready to utilize them.  Would even Elon have that much hubris?

They can have a remote safety operator, which is how Waymo does it.   Earlier, Tesla released a video of a Model Y with a safety driver in the car picking up employees in Austin.  I'm not sure if they intend to have a safety driver in the car, or if they will go remote for their June rollout.   

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3103 on: May 26, 2025, 05:52:56 AM »
CNBC interviewed Elon Musk days ago about Tesla and other topics.

For context, Musk has claimed full-self driving will happen for many years, over and over.  He's been wrong every single time, and he's making those same claims again.  If you want to believe him, fine, but just know his track record on this prediction is very poor.

When asked if heading DOGE was worth it, Musk said Tesla sales are making a recovery.  Tesla Model Y is the best selling car.

Waymo's autonomous driving relies on LIDAR (laser-based radar) and more cameras than Tesla.  Musk explains they dropped LIDAR not because of cost, but because it created conflicting information with cameras sometimes.  He also pointed out that roads were built for humans, who have eyes and a neural network, so that is Tesla's approach as well.

When asked about permits in California, he said Waymo has permits.  A follow up question was "But Tesla still has to get permits, right?", to which Musk agreed... but then went on a tangent about permits in different cities and states.  It sounded a bit evasive about the permit status in California, to me.

China doesn't allow Tesla to use video from China to train its autonomous driving.  Despite that, Musk claims that Tesla's autonomous driving (supervised) is better than BYD's.  Tesla charges $99/month ($1188/year), or you can buy it up front for $8,000 USD (and about $8,800 USD equivalent in China).  Meanwhile BYD charges nothing.  BYD and Tesla seem to both be reaching autonomous level 3 around the same time.

I stopped watching because the commercial breaks became longer than the interview segments, but you can find segments of it on YouTube.

Telecaster

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3104 on: May 26, 2025, 11:28:56 AM »
I saw that interview.  For the most part I didn't believe what he said. 

He said sales were fine except in Europe.  I don't believe this.   Tesla is offering all kinds of incentives right now.  You don't do that if sales are fine.

He may be correct about LIDAR, but maybe not.   LIDAR works in the dark and low light, and can measure distance.  It is certainly simpler to only have one type of sensor, but he's downplaying the advantages.   FWIW, Tesla is LIDAR manufacturer Luminar Technologies largest customer.  So I think Tesla still has one foot in LIDAR water.

Tesla has permits to pick up employees in California.  It does not have AV ride hailing permits in any jurisdiction except Texas that I'm aware of.   That helps clarify where Tesla is in the AV ride hailing process.   Namely, their tech isn't advanced enough to apply for permits.


NorCal

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3105 on: May 27, 2025, 08:14:18 PM »
Just to exercise my finance muscles (I work in the field), I recently built myself a stock screening spreadsheet.  I just took a random set of 20 companies from one of my broad ETF's.  I forecast their future FCF through 2029 using a regression formula, and discounted those FCF's at a 10% hurdle rate to calculate a fair value.  I added Tesla to the spreadsheet just for the hell of it. 

It's a decent methodology for screening, but it has limitations for companies with low, negative, or declining FCF.  I also use a static number for share count, so I don't factor in equity comp or share buybacks.  I'm also using an average cash flow formula instead of the technically correct NPV formula to simplify assumptions about post 2029 growth. 

Linear Regression's answer has Tesla's FCF stabilizing around $1.1B/qtr.  Analyst bulls obviously have this number growing tremendously, and the consensus on this forum seems to expect that number to be too high.

Regardless, assuming ~$1.1B in quarterly FCF going forward, I get a fair value on the stock of $13.90.

Interestingly, Uber came up as a potential stock to research further.  Their cash-flow has gone from negligible in 2022 to ~$2B a quarter in the last year.  The valuation doesn't seem ridiculous given the growth profile. 

Stasher

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3106 on: May 28, 2025, 08:00:45 AM »
Interestingly, Uber came up as a potential stock to research further.  Their cash-flow has gone from negligible in 2022 to ~$2B a quarter in the last year.  The valuation doesn't seem ridiculous given the growth profile.

May 22, 2025  "More than five years after Uber first launched its ride-hailing services in Metro Vancouver, the company is now set to expand across British Columbia — beyond its current service areas of Metro Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Greater Victoria, and Kelowna."

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/uber-ride-hailing-bc-province-wide-expansion-launch-date

41_swish

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3107 on: May 28, 2025, 09:47:38 AM »
None of it makes sense anymore. What has really changed to make the stock bounce back so much?

Retire-Canada

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3108 on: May 28, 2025, 10:05:28 AM »
None of it makes sense anymore. What has really changed to make the stock bounce back so much?

Meme stocks gonna meme. Don't think about it too hard.

reeshau

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3109 on: May 28, 2025, 12:23:30 PM »
It's almost June, so Austin is going to be wowed with driverless taxis that have no steering wheel, no geofencing, and previewing what your own car can do.

Or, they will get a second robotaxi like Waymo, but somewhat less capable.

joemandadman189

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3110 on: May 28, 2025, 02:53:18 PM »
Tesla is currently 1.67% of a share of VOO and 1.44% of a share of VTI.

Tesla is the 7th biggest company by market cap in the SP500 with a value of $1.15 Trillion dollars as of May 28th, 2025

I dont think companies get this big because they are a meme stock


Telecaster

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3111 on: May 28, 2025, 03:33:02 PM »
I don't like the term meme stock very much, and don't think it applies to Tesla. Telsa is profitable company with $97 billion in revenue.    I think the stock is mispriced, however.   

In 2000, companies like Intel, Cisco, and GE were all in the top 7 by market cap.   And if you had invested money in them at that time, you would be under water to this day.   

So, you can have a large market cap and still be mispriced. 


dragoncar

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3112 on: May 28, 2025, 04:29:38 PM »
Tesla is currently 1.67% of a share of VOO and 1.44% of a share of VTI.

Tesla is the 7th biggest company by market cap in the SP500 with a value of $1.15 Trillion dollars as of May 28th, 2025

I dont think companies get this big because they are a meme stock

Interesting.  Enron was also the 7th biggest company at one time...

reeshau

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3113 on: May 28, 2025, 05:03:31 PM »
Shown a different way:

Tesla's P/E is 6x Microsoft.  But, it could conceivably earn that, with a better business model.

Below is a graphical breakdown of each company's income statement for the latest quarter.  Which company has the better business model?

That's the conundrum, and the difference is just how much Tesla is a speculative / meme stock.

41_swish

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3114 on: May 28, 2025, 11:19:04 PM »
None of it makes sense anymore. What has really changed to make the stock bounce back so much?

Meme stocks gonna meme. Don't think about it too hard.
Trying to find logic in the illogical is losing game.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3115 on: May 28, 2025, 11:19:35 PM »
My Tesla Model Y has been driving me around for the last 3 days on version 13.2.8.  Conditions ranging from highway to city, day and night, sun to heavy rain, and construction zones. I've never been more confident in my Tesla investment. Version 13 is a dramatic improvement from version 12, which was a drastic improvement from prior versions. My car is essentially functioning as a robotaxi and driving me around like a passenger. The train is about to leave the station. Those parsing PE ratios will be left standing on the platform.

Telecaster

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3116 on: May 29, 2025, 10:33:49 AM »
Today, Elon announced on Twitter that Teslas in Austin has been picking up employees without a safety driver in the vehicle for several days now.  This puts Tesla roughly four years behind Waymo.   

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1927970940874354941

In other news, Tesla sales fall 87% in Quebec in Q1.   Canada recently imposed 25% tariffs on US auto imports, which should further depress Q2 sales.   

https://electrek.co/2025/05/28/teslas-sales-fall-quebec-market-gets-wiped-out/

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3117 on: May 29, 2025, 11:32:31 AM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlVq4VwmN7c

The race is not to proof of concept. That's all Waymo has at present. The race is to scalability and profitability. Tesla leads that race by virtue of its lead in autonomous (supervised) miles driven, vehicle manufacturing cost (i.e., Tesla manufactures its own AEVs with autonomous hardware seamlessly integrated), and AI advantage. Waymo's reliance on geofencing, lidar, and thousands of line of code put it at an inherent disadvantage to Tesla's approach.


GuitarStv

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3118 on: May 29, 2025, 11:45:51 AM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlVq4VwmN7c

The race is not to proof of concept. That's all Waymo has at present. The race is to scalability and profitability. Tesla leads that race by virtue of its lead in autonomous (supervised) miles driven, vehicle manufacturing cost (i.e., Tesla manufactures its own AEVs with autonomous hardware seamlessly integrated), and AI advantage. Waymo's reliance on geofencing, lidar, and thousands of line of code put it at an inherent disadvantage to Tesla's approach.

Don't forget Tesla's lead in deaths due to autonomous driving, and the unclear legal liability that future deaths will entail for the company.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3119 on: May 29, 2025, 11:55:52 AM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlVq4VwmN7c

The race is not to proof of concept. That's all Waymo has at present. The race is to scalability and profitability. Tesla leads that race by virtue of its lead in autonomous (supervised) miles driven, vehicle manufacturing cost (i.e., Tesla manufactures its own AEVs with autonomous hardware seamlessly integrated), and AI advantage. Waymo's reliance on geofencing, lidar, and thousands of line of code put it at an inherent disadvantage to Tesla's approach.

Don't forget Tesla's lead in deaths due to autonomous driving, and the unclear legal liability that future deaths will entail for the company.

Don't forget that most deaths attributed to FSD are later found to be false claims where either the driver was abusing the system or the system wasn't actually engaged (see video linked in my previous post). We might see deaths in Waymos if they were allowed to operate on highways and at higher speeds like Tesla does with FSD supervised. Accidents and deaths per mile on FSD are actually less than the national averages, so FSD supervised is already saving lives. Lastly, there will never be zero vehicle deaths. Some number of people per year are going to die, but as a society anything that reduces total vehicle deaths per year by an order of magnitude is a win. Once insurance companies see enough data, they will begin offering cheaper premiums to drivers that own and operate an FSD enabled vehicle. It will come down to a pretty simple math equation and the math won't lie (unlike FUD news articles falsely attributing accidents and deaths to FSD without any actual evidence of waiting for the accident report).

GuitarStv

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3120 on: May 29, 2025, 12:08:52 PM »
This isn't specifically related to Tesla, they're just the company with the highest automated driving kill count so far.  They've managed to defend themselves legally by having the self-driving automatically turn off when an accident seems imminent, and sternly warning in user agreements that Full Self Driving is never to be used to fully self drive the vehicle.  Something that you're excited they appear soon to abandon.

I agree with you that there will never be zero vehicle deaths.  That's why it will be interesting to see how legal liability is appointed when deaths occur.  Does the owner relying on the software pay, does the company providing the software pay, does the programmer who worked on the software pay?  I dunno, but it seems likely that any answer to that question will reduce profitability of a company doing self driving.

sonofsven

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3121 on: May 29, 2025, 12:52:08 PM »
My Tesla Model Y has been driving me around for the last 3 days on version 13.2.8.  Conditions ranging from highway to city, day and night, sun to heavy rain, and construction zones. I've never been more confident in my Tesla investment. Version 13 is a dramatic improvement from version 12, which was a drastic improvement from prior versions. My car is essentially functioning as a robotaxi and driving me around like a passenger. The train is about to leave the station. Those parsing PE ratios will be left standing on the platform.
Ha, to me, that sounds horrible. I fully engage as a driver. The idea of other drivers being carted around while they doomscroll is nightmare fuel.
This just reinforces my decision to stop riding street motorcycles over a decade ago.
Maybe I listened to Red Barchetta by Rush too many times

https://youtu.be/_LXKZq0fYDw?si=wrvKp0WqckmSccpm

Telecaster

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3122 on: May 29, 2025, 01:56:42 PM »
The race is not to proof of concept. That's all Waymo has at present. The race is to scalability and profitability. Tesla leads that race by virtue of its lead in autonomous (supervised) miles driven, vehicle manufacturing cost (i.e., Tesla manufactures its own AEVs with autonomous hardware seamlessly integrated), and AI advantage. Waymo's reliance on geofencing, lidar, and thousands of line of code put it at an inherent disadvantage to Tesla's approach.

Yet in Austin, Tesla is using Waymo's concept of geofencing with remote safety operators.  If what you are saying is true, why would they do that?   The answer of course is that internally Tesla doesn't believe that their version of FSD will be good enough for ride hailing in a reasonable time frame.   So if Tesla wants to do AV riding hailing--which they've been saying they want to do for years--they need to start developing some capability in this area even though their tech isn't fully ready. 

I don't want trot out the broken record too much, but this is also confirmed by Tesla's permitting timeline.   Texas does not require special AV ride hailing permits.   As far as I know, all other jurisdictions do.  The AV ride hailing permit process takes months or years.    And as Uber found out, even with human drivers there are a lot of entrenched interests in the ride hailing industry.  You can't just snap your fingers and roll it out.   I imagine that's even more cumbersome when you are potentially displaying human workers.    Thus far, Tesla has announced no AV riding hailing permit applications in any jurisdiction.   This is a clear indication Tesla does not believe they are ready to do so.

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3123 on: May 29, 2025, 02:18:26 PM »
My Tesla Model Y has been driving me around for the last 3 days on version 13.2.8.  Conditions ranging from highway to city, day and night, sun to heavy rain, and construction zones. I've never been more confident in my Tesla investment. Version 13 is a dramatic improvement from version 12, which was a drastic improvement from prior versions. My car is essentially functioning as a robotaxi and driving me around like a passenger. The train is about to leave the station. Those parsing PE ratios will be left standing on the platform.
Ha, to me, that sounds horrible. I fully engage as a driver. The idea of other drivers being carted around while they doomscroll is nightmare fuel.
This just reinforces my decision to stop riding street motorcycles over a decade ago.
Maybe I listened to Red Barchetta by Rush too many times

https://youtu.be/_LXKZq0fYDw?si=wrvKp0WqckmSccpm

Do you also enjoy sharing the road with drunk drivers, teen drivers, distracted drivers, impaired drivers, exhausted drivers, angry drivers, road raging drivers and suicidal drivers?

AEVs don't drive drunk, tired, angry, sad, distracted or impaired. My Tesla Model Y keeps all eight of its eyes on the road in all directions and all times and has a faster reaction time than me. I'm not much for doom scrolling, but I will gladly read a book, nap, eat a meal, type some emails, and generally repurpose monotonous driving time as productive time. Jeez, the more I think about it, this sounds horrible.

GuitarStv

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3124 on: May 29, 2025, 02:30:31 PM »
My Tesla Model Y has been driving me around for the last 3 days on version 13.2.8.  Conditions ranging from highway to city, day and night, sun to heavy rain, and construction zones. I've never been more confident in my Tesla investment. Version 13 is a dramatic improvement from version 12, which was a drastic improvement from prior versions. My car is essentially functioning as a robotaxi and driving me around like a passenger. The train is about to leave the station. Those parsing PE ratios will be left standing on the platform.
Ha, to me, that sounds horrible. I fully engage as a driver. The idea of other drivers being carted around while they doomscroll is nightmare fuel.
This just reinforces my decision to stop riding street motorcycles over a decade ago.
Maybe I listened to Red Barchetta by Rush too many times

https://youtu.be/_LXKZq0fYDw?si=wrvKp0WqckmSccpm

Do you also enjoy sharing the road with drunk drivers, teen drivers, distracted drivers, impaired drivers, exhausted drivers, angry drivers, road raging drivers and suicidal drivers?

AEVs don't drive drunk, tired, angry, sad, distracted or impaired. My Tesla Model Y keeps all eight of its eyes on the road in all directions and all times and has a faster reaction time than me. I'm not much for doom scrolling, but I will gladly read a book, nap, eat a meal, type some emails, and generally repurpose monotonous driving time as productive time. Jeez, the more I think about it, this sounds horrible.

Tesla model 3 using all of it's cameras to swerve off the road into a tree faster than the monitoring driver could react to, occurring just a few days back: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frGoalySCns&ab_channel=SynGates.


Not sure how restful the nap will be . . . assuming you wake up.
« Last Edit: May 29, 2025, 02:33:03 PM by GuitarStv »

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3125 on: May 29, 2025, 02:42:15 PM »
The race is not to proof of concept. That's all Waymo has at present. The race is to scalability and profitability. Tesla leads that race by virtue of its lead in autonomous (supervised) miles driven, vehicle manufacturing cost (i.e., Tesla manufactures its own AEVs with autonomous hardware seamlessly integrated), and AI advantage. Waymo's reliance on geofencing, lidar, and thousands of line of code put it at an inherent disadvantage to Tesla's approach.

Yet in Austin, Tesla is using Waymo's concept of geofencing with remote safety operators.  If what you are saying is true, why would they do that?   The answer of course is that internally Tesla doesn't believe that their version of FSD will be good enough for ride hailing in a reasonable time frame.   So if Tesla wants to do AV riding hailing--which they've been saying they want to do for years--they need to start developing some capability in this area even though their tech isn't fully ready. 

I don't want trot out the broken record too much, but this is also confirmed by Tesla's permitting timeline.   Texas does not require special AV ride hailing permits.   As far as I know, all other jurisdictions do.  The AV ride hailing permit process takes months or years.    And as Uber found out, even with human drivers there are a lot of entrenched interests in the ride hailing industry.  You can't just snap your fingers and roll it out.   I imagine that's even more cumbersome when you are potentially displaying human workers.    Thus far, Tesla has announced no AV riding hailing permit applications in any jurisdiction.   This is a clear indication Tesla does not believe they are ready to do so.

Tesla can't win with this crowd. If Tesla didn't have remote driver oversight to start they'd be accused of being reckless and unsafe and taking uneccesaary risks to save a buck. Of course they are going to go slow at first. Just 10 vehicles, remote operators as needed, and a limited geographical footprint. Safety is a priority, but let's see how quickly things progress. It's prudent and no reflection on the technology. I'm using a lesser version of FSD right now and going door to door with no remote oversight, interventions or geofencing. A Waymo couldn't have completed the drive I did yesterday. My area isn't mapped and/or geofenced for a Waymo to operate and Waymo can't operate safely at highway speeds. Within a year Tesla will be operating 1,000s of AEVs profitably and you will need to move the goal posts again.

Comparing Waymo to Tesla in terms of geofencing is an apples to oranges comparison. Waymo is geofenced because their system requires detailed mapping of every street in the service area. You can't drive a Waymo outside of the geofence area. Conversely, Tesla is geofencing their Austin service area as a precautionary measure and picking geographically favorable conditions for the initial rollout. However, the same FSD that allows a Tesla to operate inside the Austin service area will work just as well anywhere in the country. My own experience here in Colorado proves that to my satisfaction.

Let me get this last bit straight. Because you are not privy to Tesla's internal efforts on the autonomous ride hail permitting front, it means Tesla has no such efforts under way? Then you further extrapolate from there that this is a "clear indication" (LOL) that Tesla lacks confidence in its system. That is some pretzel logic. The Trump admin recently established a national framework for regulating autonomous vehicles. How long before regulation of autonomy gets bumped up to the federal level the same way that we regulate safety belts, vehicle emissions and highway speed limits across the country. It only makes sense to have a national standard. You want to believe Waymo having permits in a few extra cities at this stage is some sort of moat? Permitting is not going to protect the inferior solution that costs more to implement and way longer to roll out to new locations via extensive mapping.
« Last Edit: May 29, 2025, 03:33:54 PM by ColoradoTribe »

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3126 on: May 29, 2025, 03:30:02 PM »
This isn't specifically related to Tesla, they're just the company with the highest automated driving kill count so far.  They've managed to defend themselves legally by having the self-driving automatically turn off when an accident seems imminent, and sternly warning in user agreements that Full Self Driving is never to be used to fully self drive the vehicle.  Something that you're excited they appear soon to abandon.

I agree with you that there will never be zero vehicle deaths.  That's why it will be interesting to see how legal liability is appointed when deaths occur.  Does the owner relying on the software pay, does the company providing the software pay, does the programmer who worked on the software pay?  I dunno, but it seems likely that any answer to that question will reduce profitability of a company doing self driving.

Please provide a link to the count of Tesla's "automated driving kill count". Lots of drivers claim to have been in an accident with FSD engaged only for Tesla to later prove FSD was not engaged, as the vehicle records all this data in real time. Accident rates are also impossible to come by and rely or "estimates" of total miles driven under FSD. Only Tesla has the receipts and their data shows accident rates far below national averages with cars operating FSD.

FSD Beta users have 0.31 accidents per 1 million miles, while Autopilot-enabled Teslas have 0.18 accidents per 1 million miles, compared to the industry average of 1.53 accidents per 1 million miles.

https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport

I'm willing to concede that Tesla Beta users trend older and more affluent than the general driving public and that accounts for some of the difference, but that can't for such a large divergence. FSD avoiding accidents has to be part of this gap.


ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3127 on: May 29, 2025, 03:42:51 PM »
My Tesla Model Y has been driving me around for the last 3 days on version 13.2.8.  Conditions ranging from highway to city, day and night, sun to heavy rain, and construction zones. I've never been more confident in my Tesla investment. Version 13 is a dramatic improvement from version 12, which was a drastic improvement from prior versions. My car is essentially functioning as a robotaxi and driving me around like a passenger. The train is about to leave the station. Those parsing PE ratios will be left standing on the platform.
Ha, to me, that sounds horrible. I fully engage as a driver. The idea of other drivers being carted around while they doomscroll is nightmare fuel.
This just reinforces my decision to stop riding street motorcycles over a decade ago.
Maybe I listened to Red Barchetta by Rush too many times

https://youtu.be/_LXKZq0fYDw?si=wrvKp0WqckmSccpm

Do you also enjoy sharing the road with drunk drivers, teen drivers, distracted drivers, impaired drivers, exhausted drivers, angry drivers, road raging drivers and suicidal drivers?

AEVs don't drive drunk, tired, angry, sad, distracted or impaired. My Tesla Model Y keeps all eight of its eyes on the road in all directions and all times and has a faster reaction time than me. I'm not much for doom scrolling, but I will gladly read a book, nap, eat a meal, type some emails, and generally repurpose monotonous driving time as productive time. Jeez, the more I think about it, this sounds horrible.

Tesla model 3 using all of it's cameras to swerve off the road into a tree faster than the monitoring driver could react to, occurring just a few days back: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frGoalySCns&ab_channel=SynGates.


Not sure how restful the nap will be . . . assuming you wake up.

LOL, this is a fail. This has already been debunked. I literally posted the rebuttal. It's covered by the podcast link I posted just a few posts up today. Do yourself a favor and stop latching onto clickbait FUD news headlines. That entire article was based on the account of the driver. Any publication with journalistic standards would have waited for Tesla to release the accident report that shows the real time data collected by the vehicle, but that's not headline grabbing. That data showed the driver (most likely by accident) disengaged FSD several seconds before the car swerved. FSD was not responsible for this accident. The driver likely rubbed or provided resistance to the steering wheel or brushed the brake pedal. Either action automatically disengages FSD as a safety feature and requires the driver to take back control. If the driver was unaware he needed to take back control that explains how the car veered off the road unexpectedly. Human error that goes away once FSD become unsupervised and we remove pedals and the steering wheel.

Please, please do some research before blindly posting nonsense to this thread without applying any skepticism or critical thought.

GuitarStv

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3128 on: May 29, 2025, 03:46:11 PM »
This isn't specifically related to Tesla, they're just the company with the highest automated driving kill count so far.  They've managed to defend themselves legally by having the self-driving automatically turn off when an accident seems imminent, and sternly warning in user agreements that Full Self Driving is never to be used to fully self drive the vehicle.  Something that you're excited they appear soon to abandon.

I agree with you that there will never be zero vehicle deaths.  That's why it will be interesting to see how legal liability is appointed when deaths occur.  Does the owner relying on the software pay, does the company providing the software pay, does the programmer who worked on the software pay?  I dunno, but it seems likely that any answer to that question will reduce profitability of a company doing self driving.

Please provide a link to the count of Tesla's "automated driving kill count". Lots of drivers claim to have been in an accident with FSD engaged only for Tesla to later prove FSD was not engaged, as the vehicle records all this data in real time. Accident rates are also impossible to come by and rely or "estimates" of total miles driven under FSD. Only Tesla has the receipts and their data shows accident rates far below national averages with cars operating FSD.

FSD Beta users have 0.31 accidents per 1 million miles, while Autopilot-enabled Teslas have 0.18 accidents per 1 million miles, compared to the industry average of 1.53 accidents per 1 million miles.

https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport

I'm willing to concede that Tesla Beta users trend older and more affluent than the general driving public and that accounts for some of the difference, but that can't for such a large divergence. FSD avoiding accidents has to be part of this gap.

I don't trust the person selling me a car to fairly tell me how safe the car they manufacture is on the roads.  They have every reason to lie and obfuscate.  I trust independent investigation by government regulators though.

Quote
211 crashes were identified in which the frontal plane of the Tesla struck a vehicle or obstacle in its
path. This crash type includes the first responder crashes that prompted the original investigation.
When a driver is disengaged with the Tesla vehicle operating in Autopilot and the vehicle encounters
a circumstance outside of Autopilot’s object or event detection response capabilities (e.g., obstacle
detection and/or forward path planning), crash outcomes are often severe because neither the
system nor the driver reacts appropriately, resulting in high-speed differential and high energy crash
outcomes. The 211 crashes considered as part of this analysis resulted in 13 fatal crashes leading to
14 deaths and 49 injuries.

Quote
53 crashes were identified where Autosteer was in use in a lower traction environment, such as on
wet roads, where the vehicle lost traction and subsequently directional control, leading to a crash
where the first harmful event was road departure. In these low traction incidents, generally, the
vehicle almost immediately departs the lane after losing lane centering that often results in an impact
with a roadway barrier or other object.

Quote
Crashes with no or late evasive action attempted by the driver were found across all Tesla hardware versions and crash circumstances

- https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2022/INCR-EA22002-14496.pdf




There likely won't be any more recent reliable reports of Tesla crashes and safety, given that Musk laid off most of the agency that was investigating his company earlier this year.

GuitarStv

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3129 on: May 29, 2025, 03:59:02 PM »
My Tesla Model Y has been driving me around for the last 3 days on version 13.2.8.  Conditions ranging from highway to city, day and night, sun to heavy rain, and construction zones. I've never been more confident in my Tesla investment. Version 13 is a dramatic improvement from version 12, which was a drastic improvement from prior versions. My car is essentially functioning as a robotaxi and driving me around like a passenger. The train is about to leave the station. Those parsing PE ratios will be left standing on the platform.
Ha, to me, that sounds horrible. I fully engage as a driver. The idea of other drivers being carted around while they doomscroll is nightmare fuel.
This just reinforces my decision to stop riding street motorcycles over a decade ago.
Maybe I listened to Red Barchetta by Rush too many times

https://youtu.be/_LXKZq0fYDw?si=wrvKp0WqckmSccpm

Do you also enjoy sharing the road with drunk drivers, teen drivers, distracted drivers, impaired drivers, exhausted drivers, angry drivers, road raging drivers and suicidal drivers?

AEVs don't drive drunk, tired, angry, sad, distracted or impaired. My Tesla Model Y keeps all eight of its eyes on the road in all directions and all times and has a faster reaction time than me. I'm not much for doom scrolling, but I will gladly read a book, nap, eat a meal, type some emails, and generally repurpose monotonous driving time as productive time. Jeez, the more I think about it, this sounds horrible.

Tesla model 3 using all of it's cameras to swerve off the road into a tree faster than the monitoring driver could react to, occurring just a few days back: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frGoalySCns&ab_channel=SynGates.


Not sure how restful the nap will be . . . assuming you wake up.

LOL, this is a fail. This has already been debunked. I literally posted the rebuttal. It's covered by the podcast link I posted just a few posts up today. Do yourself a favor and stop latching onto clickbait FUD news headlines. That entire article was based on the account of the driver. Any publication with journalistic standards would have waited for Tesla to release the accident report that shows the real time data collected by the vehicle, but that's not headline grabbing. That data showed the driver (most likely by accident) disengaged FSD several seconds before the car swerved. FSD was not responsible for this accident. The driver likely rubbed or provided resistance to the steering wheel or brushed the brake pedal. Either action automatically disengages FSD as a safety feature and requires the driver to take back control. If the driver was unaware he needed to take back control that explains how the car veered off the road unexpectedly. Human error that goes away once FSD become unsupervised and we remove pedals and the steering wheel.

Please, please do some research before blindly posting nonsense to this thread without applying any skepticism or critical thought.

I don't have the unshakable faith in Tesla telling me the truth that you do.  They have every financial/monetary reason to lie, their CEO has dismantled the independent agencies who were investigating them, and they have some history of being uncooperative regarding releasing the crash data to independent regulators that only they have access to.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3130 on: May 29, 2025, 04:08:08 PM »
My Tesla Model Y has been driving me around for the last 3 days on version 13.2.8.  Conditions ranging from highway to city, day and night, sun to heavy rain, and construction zones. I've never been more confident in my Tesla investment. Version 13 is a dramatic improvement from version 12, which was a drastic improvement from prior versions. My car is essentially functioning as a robotaxi and driving me around like a passenger. The train is about to leave the station. Those parsing PE ratios will be left standing on the platform.
Ha, to me, that sounds horrible. I fully engage as a driver. The idea of other drivers being carted around while they doomscroll is nightmare fuel.
This just reinforces my decision to stop riding street motorcycles over a decade ago.
Maybe I listened to Red Barchetta by Rush too many times

https://youtu.be/_LXKZq0fYDw?si=wrvKp0WqckmSccpm

Do you also enjoy sharing the road with drunk drivers, teen drivers, distracted drivers, impaired drivers, exhausted drivers, angry drivers, road raging drivers and suicidal drivers?

AEVs don't drive drunk, tired, angry, sad, distracted or impaired. My Tesla Model Y keeps all eight of its eyes on the road in all directions and all times and has a faster reaction time than me. I'm not much for doom scrolling, but I will gladly read a book, nap, eat a meal, type some emails, and generally repurpose monotonous driving time as productive time. Jeez, the more I think about it, this sounds horrible.

Tesla model 3 using all of it's cameras to swerve off the road into a tree faster than the monitoring driver could react to, occurring just a few days back: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frGoalySCns&ab_channel=SynGates.


Not sure how restful the nap will be . . . assuming you wake up.

LOL, this is a fail. This has already been debunked. I literally posted the rebuttal. It's covered by the podcast link I posted just a few posts up today. Do yourself a favor and stop latching onto clickbait FUD news headlines. That entire article was based on the account of the driver. Any publication with journalistic standards would have waited for Tesla to release the accident report that shows the real time data collected by the vehicle, but that's not headline grabbing. That data showed the driver (most likely by accident) disengaged FSD several seconds before the car swerved. FSD was not responsible for this accident. The driver likely rubbed or provided resistance to the steering wheel or brushed the brake pedal. Either action automatically disengages FSD as a safety feature and requires the driver to take back control. If the driver was unaware he needed to take back control that explains how the car veered off the road unexpectedly. Human error that goes away once FSD become unsupervised and we remove pedals and the steering wheel.

Please, please do some research before blindly posting nonsense to this thread without applying any skepticism or critical thought.
I don't have the unshakable faith in Tesla telling me the truth that you do.  They have every financial/monetary reason to lie, their CEO has dismantled the independent agencies who were investigating them, and they have some history of being uncooperative regarding releasing the crash data to independent regulators that only they have access to.
There have also been multiple documented honesty issues with the company's statements regarding range, pricing, recall, FSD capabilities, availability, and spyware. With the pesky government out of the way, it's Tesla's word against... nobody. So without any independent facts, our discussions about this company can only boil down to a question of whether we trust what they say. 

Telecaster

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3131 on: May 29, 2025, 04:16:32 PM »
Tesla can't win with this crowd. If Tesla didn't have remote driver oversight to start they'd be accused of being reckless and unsafe and taking uneccesaary risks to save a buck. Of course they are going to go slow at first. Just 10 vehicles, remote operators as needed, and a limited geographical footprint. Safety is a priority, but let's see how quickly things progress.

This is a straw man argument.  No one ever suggested Tesla shouldn't move cautiously and prudently.   

Quote
Comparing Waymo to Tesla in terms of geofencing is an apples to oranges comparison. Waymo is geofenced because their system requires detailed mapping of every street in the service area. You can't drive a Waymo outside of the geofence area. Conversely, Tesla is geofencing their Austin service area as a precautionary measure and picking geographically  favorable conditions for the initial rollout. However, the same FSD that allows a Tesla to operate inside the Austin service area will work just as well anywhere in the country. My own experience here in Colorado proves that to my satisfaction.

How do you know that Waymo isn't using the same logic?   Namely, picking geographically favorable locations for their rollouts?    Moving cautiously and prudently?   Why is it a negative for Waymo but a positive for Tesla?   

Quote
Let me get this straight. Because you are not privy to Tesla's internal efforts on the autonomous ride hail permitting front, it means Tesla has no such efforts under way? Then you further extrapolate from there that this is a "clear indication" (LOL) that Tesla lacks confidence in its system. That is some pretzel logic.

You didn't get that straight.   First,  I did not say "no such efforts."    I said "thus far, Tesla has announced no AV riding hailing permit applications in any jurisdiction."   I welcome correction if that is not right.   

 For all I know, Tesla could be ready to file permit applications in 20 jurisdictions.     Since Tesla wants AV riding hailing to be a core part of their business, logically they are making efforts in that regard.  Just no permit applications thus far.  That is a statement of fact.   I don't see why this is a point of contention.   

Second, I did not say "Tesla lacks confidence."   I said they are not yet ready.   I am building a deck.  I am confident it will be ready by the time the final inspection is scheduled.  I am also confident it is not yet ready for final inspection.   I don't see how it follows logically that "not ready" is the same as "lacks confidence." 

Permit applications are a matter of public record.    For example, in Washington State where I live, as part of the permit application Uber and Lyft were required to disclose their proposed operating areas by zip code.  In California, AV ride hailing operators must disclose report trip and operational data as part of the permit process.   I'm sure if Tesla was applying somewhere we'd hear about it.  Again, corrections welcome. 

Quote
The Trump admin recently established a national framework for regulating autonomous vehicles. How long before regulation of autonomy gets bumped up to the federal level the same way that we regulate safety belts, vehicle emissions and highway speed limits. It only makes sense to have a national standard. You won't to pretend Waymo having permits in a few extra cities at this stage is some sort of moat? Permitting is not going to protect the inferior solution that costs more to implement and way longer to roll out to new location through extensive mapping.

I think you're confused about how the ride hailing process works.   But first, I didn't say it was moat for Waymo.   I just made a statement of fact (I've noticed statements of fact seem to cause you distress for some reason).    Anyway that said, you can have the most safe car on the entire road that exceeds all federal standards and an impeccable driving record, and you cannot legally pick up rides for hire.    Ride hailing is not regulated by the federal government.  It is regulated in some cases by the states, and more often on the local level.   

Picking up rides for hire isn't as simple as having an app and a car.   Uber and Lyft both spent lots of money and many years lobbying and in court rolling out their services.  There are still restrictions where they can operation in some locations (notably airports).  All that took time and money to hammer out.   Any kind of AV ride hailing service will have to go through a similar process.   That is a statement of fact.   Sorry if that causes you distress.   

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3132 on: May 29, 2025, 04:43:02 PM »
This isn't specifically related to Tesla, they're just the company with the highest automated driving kill count so far.  They've managed to defend themselves legally by having the self-driving automatically turn off when an accident seems imminent, and sternly warning in user agreements that Full Self Driving is never to be used to fully self drive the vehicle.  Something that you're excited they appear soon to abandon.

I agree with you that there will never be zero vehicle deaths.  That's why it will be interesting to see how legal liability is appointed when deaths occur.  Does the owner relying on the software pay, does the company providing the software pay, does the programmer who worked on the software pay?  I dunno, but it seems likely that any answer to that question will reduce profitability of a company doing self driving.

Please provide a link to the count of Tesla's "automated driving kill count". Lots of drivers claim to have been in an accident with FSD engaged only for Tesla to later prove FSD was not engaged, as the vehicle records all this data in real time. Accident rates are also impossible to come by and rely or "estimates" of total miles driven under FSD. Only Tesla has the receipts and their data shows accident rates far below national averages with cars operating FSD.

FSD Beta users have 0.31 accidents per 1 million miles, while Autopilot-enabled Teslas have 0.18 accidents per 1 million miles, compared to the industry average of 1.53 accidents per 1 million miles.

https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport

I'm willing to concede that Tesla Beta users trend older and more affluent than the general driving public and that accounts for some of the difference, but that can't for such a large divergence. FSD avoiding accidents has to be part of this gap.

I don't trust the person selling me a car to fairly tell me how safe the car they manufacture is on the roads.  They have every reason to lie and obfuscate.  I trust independent investigation by government regulators though.

Quote
211 crashes were identified in which the frontal plane of the Tesla struck a vehicle or obstacle in its
path. This crash type includes the first responder crashes that prompted the original investigation.
When a driver is disengaged with the Tesla vehicle operating in Autopilot and the vehicle encounters
a circumstance outside of Autopilot’s object or event detection response capabilities (e.g., obstacle
detection and/or forward path planning), crash outcomes are often severe because neither the
system nor the driver reacts appropriately, resulting in high-speed differential and high energy crash
outcomes. The 211 crashes considered as part of this analysis resulted in 13 fatal crashes leading to
14 deaths and 49 injuries.

Quote
53 crashes were identified where Autosteer was in use in a lower traction environment, such as on
wet roads, where the vehicle lost traction and subsequently directional control, leading to a crash
where the first harmful event was road departure. In these low traction incidents, generally, the
vehicle almost immediately departs the lane after losing lane centering that often results in an impact
with a roadway barrier or other object.

Quote
Crashes with no or late evasive action attempted by the driver were found across all Tesla hardware versions and crash circumstances

- https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2022/INCR-EA22002-14496.pdf




There likely won't be any more recent reliable reports of Tesla crashes and safety, given that Musk laid off most of the agency that was investigating his company earlier this year.

Well, if your argument relies on "Tesla must be lying" I don't know that there's much use carrying on the debate. Do you have a link to these FSD death statistics you're trusting? You're going to trust stats that don't come from actual data recorded by the car in real time, but rather wild guesses and extrapolations of number of miles driven under FSD and what accidents actually occurred when FSD was engaged?

The quotes you provide are pretty absurd frankly. Incidents where FSD might have been deployed based on the type of collision were identified? Same accidents where FSD might have been engaged resulted in XX number of deaths. You gotta be kidding. Was the car actually using FSD? Was the driver following the rules of FSD and providing supervision (the same way someone using cruise control needs to provide supervision)? If the vehicle was using FSD, what version? A few months is ancient history when it comes to Tesla's FSD progression. The parked emergency vehicle thing was a real issue, but was addressed a ways back and is no longer an issue for versions 12 and 13 of FSD.

You really need to stop spreading this FUD if this is all the "facts" you have to support your position and you are willing to ignore actual data runs counter to your bias.


ColoradoTribe

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3133 on: May 29, 2025, 04:51:21 PM »
My Tesla Model Y has been driving me around for the last 3 days on version 13.2.8.  Conditions ranging from highway to city, day and night, sun to heavy rain, and construction zones. I've never been more confident in my Tesla investment. Version 13 is a dramatic improvement from version 12, which was a drastic improvement from prior versions. My car is essentially functioning as a robotaxi and driving me around like a passenger. The train is about to leave the station. Those parsing PE ratios will be left standing on the platform.
Ha, to me, that sounds horrible. I fully engage as a driver. The idea of other drivers being carted around while they doomscroll is nightmare fuel.
This just reinforces my decision to stop riding street motorcycles over a decade ago.
Maybe I listened to Red Barchetta by Rush too many times

https://youtu.be/_LXKZq0fYDw?si=wrvKp0WqckmSccpm

Do you also enjoy sharing the road with drunk drivers, teen drivers, distracted drivers, impaired drivers, exhausted drivers, angry drivers, road raging drivers and suicidal drivers?

AEVs don't drive drunk, tired, angry, sad, distracted or impaired. My Tesla Model Y keeps all eight of its eyes on the road in all directions and all times and has a faster reaction time than me. I'm not much for doom scrolling, but I will gladly read a book, nap, eat a meal, type some emails, and generally repurpose monotonous driving time as productive time. Jeez, the more I think about it, this sounds horrible.

Tesla model 3 using all of it's cameras to swerve off the road into a tree faster than the monitoring driver could react to, occurring just a few days back: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frGoalySCns&ab_channel=SynGates.


Not sure how restful the nap will be . . . assuming you wake up.

LOL, this is a fail. This has already been debunked. I literally posted the rebuttal. It's covered by the podcast link I posted just a few posts up today. Do yourself a favor and stop latching onto clickbait FUD news headlines. That entire article was based on the account of the driver. Any publication with journalistic standards would have waited for Tesla to release the accident report that shows the real time data collected by the vehicle, but that's not headline grabbing. That data showed the driver (most likely by accident) disengaged FSD several seconds before the car swerved. FSD was not responsible for this accident. The driver likely rubbed or provided resistance to the steering wheel or brushed the brake pedal. Either action automatically disengages FSD as a safety feature and requires the driver to take back control. If the driver was unaware he needed to take back control that explains how the car veered off the road unexpectedly. Human error that goes away once FSD become unsupervised and we remove pedals and the steering wheel.

Please, please do some research before blindly posting nonsense to this thread without applying any skepticism or critical thought.

I don't have the unshakable faith in Tesla telling me the truth that you do.  They have every financial/monetary reason to lie, their CEO has dismantled the independent agencies who were investigating them, and they have some history of being uncooperative regarding releasing the crash data to independent regulators that only they have access to.

When confronted with data logged in real time that disputes your position, your response to ascribe corruption by Tesla (without proof) and ascribe my understanding to "blind faith". No "faith" is required, I put in the work and the research and tuned out the noise.

Have you ridden in the driver seat of a Tesla operating under FSD (supervised) versions 12.2.8 or 13.2.9? If not, I would argue it would be nearly impossible for you or anyone to hold a well-informed opinion as to Tesla's abilities with respect to autonomy.

FireLane

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3134 on: May 29, 2025, 05:18:23 PM »
There have also been multiple documented honesty issues with the company's statements regarding range, pricing, recall, FSD capabilities, availability, and spyware. With the pesky government out of the way, it's Tesla's word against... nobody. So without any independent facts, our discussions about this company can only boil down to a question of whether we trust what they say.

Case in point: In 2016, Elon Musk said the following on stage at a tech conference:

Quote
"A Model S and Model X at this point can drive autonomously with greater safety than a person. Right now," the CEO told the Code Conference audience during a Q&A session following his interview with tech journalists Walt Mossberg and Kara Swisher.

If Tesla's self-driving capabilities were that good then, they must be absolutely amazing by now.

However, in 2023, Tesla was sued by the family of Walter Huang, who died in a car crash allegedly because of an FSD failure. How did they respond to the lawsuit? Did they stand by those statements?

Nope. They claimed that Musk never said anything like that, it was a deepfake:

Quote
But the carmaker's lawyers pushed back.

Musk, "like many public figures, is the subject of many 'deepfake' videos and audio recordings that purport to show him saying and doing things he never actually said or did," they wrote in a court filing, going on to describe several fake videos of the billionaire.

It seems like Tesla is less confident about the viability of their own technology than some of their more fervent fans.

NorCal

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3135 on: May 29, 2025, 09:47:36 PM »
Instead of arguing whether Tesla's FSD is garbage or brilliant, let's take a step back.

I can use a variety of valuation techniques on Tesla stock, and come up with a fair value for the car business.  I can see compelling arguments for the car business being worth anywhere between $15 - $50 per share, with a most likely fair-value somewhere in the middle of that range.  This valuation includes the FSD package they're already including with cars (because it is revenue generating), but not the robotaxi business. 

The question becomes, how much is the robotaxi business worth?  It's worth more than zero, but some number needs to ascribed to it.  It's not worth $100B.

It's a product with a fancy prototype, a spashy launch, lots of hype, and pre-revenue.  Valuing these types of startups is common in Silicon Valley.  My quick search comes up with AI companies that aren't comparable, because they have much lower capital requirements.  I see Imbue with a valuation of $210M.  Boom SuperSonic (another flashy startup with a plan, concept, and no revenue) got to a $1.2B valuation.

I see a $1B valuation as reasonable for a pre-revenue company with as splashy of a launch as FSD.  I could even be convinced $5B is reasonable if I actually believed some of the wilder claims about market penetration and profit margins.

So at the highest plausible levels, you have a car business that's worth $50/share ($183B in market cap), and add another $5B for the self driving business.  So it's a company worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $190B on the high end. 

This is before any dilution from Musk's compensation package that is held up in court.

Does anyone have a valuation case above that?  Like an actual valuation case beyond "I like Tesla"?

Just like any other company, there is a price at which buying shares makes sense, and a price at which it is too expensive.

 

reeshau

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3136 on: Today at 06:39:40 AM »
The highest serious valuation I could find was from Morningstar.  While they use a DCF model and 5 year time-frame, they assign a very high uncertainty level, which is no surprise.  Grok gives a range of $49.43 and $250, with a large number similar to @NorCal 's calculation.  I think we can all agree that the electric car company is not, alone, worth the current price.

Below are Morningstar's valuation thermometer, as well as their Bulls Say / Bears Say summary.  At $250 a share, this would be a tidy 100% profit from last year's levels.  The range of possible values they calculate shows, at the very least, the continued volatility a Tesla investor should expect.  As NorCal says, like an early stage company.

GuitarStv

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3137 on: Today at 08:23:35 AM »
This isn't specifically related to Tesla, they're just the company with the highest automated driving kill count so far.  They've managed to defend themselves legally by having the self-driving automatically turn off when an accident seems imminent, and sternly warning in user agreements that Full Self Driving is never to be used to fully self drive the vehicle.  Something that you're excited they appear soon to abandon.

I agree with you that there will never be zero vehicle deaths.  That's why it will be interesting to see how legal liability is appointed when deaths occur.  Does the owner relying on the software pay, does the company providing the software pay, does the programmer who worked on the software pay?  I dunno, but it seems likely that any answer to that question will reduce profitability of a company doing self driving.

Please provide a link to the count of Tesla's "automated driving kill count". Lots of drivers claim to have been in an accident with FSD engaged only for Tesla to later prove FSD was not engaged, as the vehicle records all this data in real time. Accident rates are also impossible to come by and rely or "estimates" of total miles driven under FSD. Only Tesla has the receipts and their data shows accident rates far below national averages with cars operating FSD.

FSD Beta users have 0.31 accidents per 1 million miles, while Autopilot-enabled Teslas have 0.18 accidents per 1 million miles, compared to the industry average of 1.53 accidents per 1 million miles.

https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport

I'm willing to concede that Tesla Beta users trend older and more affluent than the general driving public and that accounts for some of the difference, but that can't for such a large divergence. FSD avoiding accidents has to be part of this gap.

I don't trust the person selling me a car to fairly tell me how safe the car they manufacture is on the roads.  They have every reason to lie and obfuscate.  I trust independent investigation by government regulators though.

Quote
211 crashes were identified in which the frontal plane of the Tesla struck a vehicle or obstacle in its
path. This crash type includes the first responder crashes that prompted the original investigation.
When a driver is disengaged with the Tesla vehicle operating in Autopilot and the vehicle encounters
a circumstance outside of Autopilot’s object or event detection response capabilities (e.g., obstacle
detection and/or forward path planning), crash outcomes are often severe because neither the
system nor the driver reacts appropriately, resulting in high-speed differential and high energy crash
outcomes. The 211 crashes considered as part of this analysis resulted in 13 fatal crashes leading to
14 deaths and 49 injuries.

Quote
53 crashes were identified where Autosteer was in use in a lower traction environment, such as on
wet roads, where the vehicle lost traction and subsequently directional control, leading to a crash
where the first harmful event was road departure. In these low traction incidents, generally, the
vehicle almost immediately departs the lane after losing lane centering that often results in an impact
with a roadway barrier or other object.

Quote
Crashes with no or late evasive action attempted by the driver were found across all Tesla hardware versions and crash circumstances

- https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2022/INCR-EA22002-14496.pdf




There likely won't be any more recent reliable reports of Tesla crashes and safety, given that Musk laid off most of the agency that was investigating his company earlier this year.

Well, if your argument relies on "Tesla must be lying" I don't know that there's much use carrying on the debate. Do you have a link to these FSD death statistics you're trusting? You're going to trust stats that don't come from actual data recorded by the car in real time, but rather wild guesses and extrapolations of number of miles driven under FSD and what accidents actually occurred when FSD was engaged?

The quotes you provide are pretty absurd frankly. Incidents where FSD might have been deployed based on the type of collision were identified? Same accidents where FSD might have been engaged resulted in XX number of deaths. You gotta be kidding. Was the car actually using FSD? Was the driver following the rules of FSD and providing supervision (the same way someone using cruise control needs to provide supervision)? If the vehicle was using FSD, what version? A few months is ancient history when it comes to Tesla's FSD progression. The parked emergency vehicle thing was a real issue, but was addressed a ways back and is no longer an issue for versions 12 and 13 of FSD.

You really need to stop spreading this FUD if this is all the "facts" you have to support your position and you are willing to ignore actual data runs counter to your bias.

I don't trust them because Tesla is not a trustworthy source.  They have a long history of being misleading (if not outright lying*) with the information released.  The stats you're quoting above directly from Tesla are a good example of this:

Quote
FSD Beta users have 0.31 accidents per 1 million miles, while Autopilot-enabled Teslas have 0.18 accidents per 1 million miles, compared to the industry average of 1.53 accidents per 1 million miles.

* The accident numbers being quoted are a comparison of apples to oranges.  Tesla only counts a 'crash' as being an incident where an airbag or active restraint was deployed.  This ignores the types of minor accidents that are included in the 'industry average' number being compared to.  This seems dishonest.

* Autopilot is overwhelmingly used by Tesla drivers on highways and freeways.  This type of driving is radically safer than in city driving - speeds are higher, leading to more severe crashes when they occur, but people go many more miles with fewer decisions to be made.  Couple this with the fact that most people use autopilot in ideal driving conditions (and in fact, when severe weather is going on it's not possible to activate autopilot) and this further skews the number.  Pretending that this is some kind of fair comparison with total accidents as Tesla does is not a fair comparison.

* Tesla disclaimers and literature are VERY clear - both autopilot and FSD must be supervised by a human at all times.  The comparison is not between FSD, Autopilot, and human driven accidents per miles driven as is commonly presented.  It is between FSD + human driver, Autopilot + human driver, and human driver alone.  Again, very misleading.

Tesla collects more data about drivers and their vehicles than any other car company in history.  They have the data to do fair apples to apples comparisons but choose to release only misleading data.  This is simply not trustworthy behaviour . . . so no, I don't trust them.




* https://www.autoevolution.com/news/tesla-publicly-lied-on-twitter-got-epicly-debunked-by-court-documents-199226.html, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/in-tesla-tweet-trial-elon-musk-depicted-as-liar-and-visionary, https://dawnproject.com/teslas-history-of-faking-demonstration-videos/

GuitarStv

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3138 on: Today at 09:48:29 AM »
Someone has reminded me of some other untrustworthy stuff that Tesla does.  Tesla's autopilot turns off immediately before an accident occurs, dumping control to a user fractions of a second before a crash rather than applying brakes - https://electrek.co/2025/03/17/tesla-fans-exposes-shadiness-defend-autopilot-crash/.

Confirmed behaviour by the NHTSA report here: https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2022/INOA-EA22002-3184.PDF

Quote
On average in these crashes, Autopilot aborted vehicle control less than one second prior to the
first impact




There's also Tesla's unusual (different than other manufacturers of automated driving systems) redaction of data in the info they provide - https://fuelarc.com/tech/redacted-tesla-asked-for-redactions-on-every-self-driving-crash-reported-to-the-nhtsa-since-2021/

joemandadman189

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3139 on: Today at 11:10:13 AM »
The highest serious valuation I could find was from Morningstar.  While they use a DCF model and 5 year time-frame, they assign a very high uncertainty level, which is no surprise.  Grok gives a range of $49.43 and $250, with a large number similar to @NorCal 's calculation.  I think we can all agree that the electric car company is not, alone, worth the current price.

Below are Morningstar's valuation thermometer, as well as their Bulls Say / Bears Say summary.  At $250 a share, this would be a tidy 100% profit from last year's levels.  The range of possible values they calculate shows, at the very least, the continued volatility a Tesla investor should expect.  As NorCal says, like an early stage company.

i think the bolded is the crux of the valuation issue, Tesla is not a electric car company, they are a technology or really an AI company that currently sells cars, solar panels, and batteries. They will sell FSD, robo taxi and optimus robots, and tractor trailer trucks and who knows what else. when i hear valuation discussions on Tesla its always the value of FSD for the industry and the potential of the optimus robots which will be massive in very short order.

I think what gets lost is how fast everything is improving, AI software and chips both get 3-4x better per year independently so 10x better per year combined, compounded over 5+ years we are in the 100k to 1 million times better range, i can't fathom what that means for 2030. Its almost impossible to guess what the impact to our portfolios, retirements, and jobs may be in just a few short years.

Considering the above and this short time frame of 5 years why not consider other investment options beyond the sp500, like technology companies at forefront of these technologies AI. Nvidia is up ~1000% in the last 2.5 years, Palantir is up more than that and 400% in the last year. Tesla has more training data than anyone in this space with the same access to chips and software.

sonofsven

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3140 on: Today at 11:14:34 AM »
My Tesla Model Y has been driving me around for the last 3 days on version 13.2.8.  Conditions ranging from highway to city, day and night, sun to heavy rain, and construction zones. I've never been more confident in my Tesla investment. Version 13 is a dramatic improvement from version 12, which was a drastic improvement from prior versions. My car is essentially functioning as a robotaxi and driving me around like a passenger. The train is about to leave the station. Those parsing PE ratios will be left standing on the platform.
Ha, to me, that sounds horrible. I fully engage as a driver. The idea of other drivers being carted around while they doomscroll is nightmare fuel.
This just reinforces my decision to stop riding street motorcycles over a decade ago.
Maybe I listened to Red Barchetta by Rush too many times

https://youtu.be/_LXKZq0fYDw?si=wrvKp0WqckmSccpm

Do you also enjoy sharing the road with drunk drivers, teen drivers, distracted drivers, impaired drivers, exhausted drivers, angry drivers, road raging drivers and suicidal drivers?

AEVs don't drive drunk, tired, angry, sad, distracted or impaired. My Tesla Model Y keeps all eight of its eyes on the road in all directions and all times and has a faster reaction time than me. I'm not much for doom scrolling, but I will gladly read a book, nap, eat a meal, type some emails, and generally repurpose monotonous driving time as productive time. Jeez, the more I think about it, this sounds horrible.
I agree, it does sound horrible.
How exactly is your Tesla protecting you from these horrors of the highway while you cruise with your nose in a book?
Short answer: it isn't.

reeshau

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #3141 on: Today at 12:21:10 PM »
The highest serious valuation I could find was from Morningstar.  While they use a DCF model and 5 year time-frame, they assign a very high uncertainty level, which is no surprise.  Grok gives a range of $49.43 and $250, with a large number similar to @NorCal 's calculation.  I think we can all agree that the electric car company is not, alone, worth the current price.

Below are Morningstar's valuation thermometer, as well as their Bulls Say / Bears Say summary.  At $250 a share, this would be a tidy 100% profit from last year's levels.  The range of possible values they calculate shows, at the very least, the continued volatility a Tesla investor should expect.  As NorCal says, like an early stage company.

i think the bolded is the crux of the valuation issue, Tesla is not a electric car company, they are a technology or really an AI company that currently sells cars, solar panels, and batteries. They will sell FSD, robo taxi and optimus robots, and tractor trailer trucks and who knows what else. when i hear valuation discussions on Tesla its always the value of FSD for the industry and the potential of the optimus robots which will be massive in very short order.

I think what gets lost is how fast everything is improving, AI software and chips both get 3-4x better per year independently so 10x better per year combined, compounded over 5+ years we are in the 100k to 1 million times better range, i can't fathom what that means for 2030. Its almost impossible to guess what the impact to our portfolios, retirements, and jobs may be in just a few short years.

Considering the above and this short time frame of 5 years why not consider other investment options beyond the sp500, like technology companies at forefront of these technologies AI. Nvidia is up ~1000% in the last 2.5 years, Palantir is up more than that and 400% in the last year. Tesla has more training data than anyone in this space with the same access to chips and software.

That's fair thinking, but it's only the upside.  The same could be said about the internet in the 1990's.  Cisco was the Nvidia of its day--the hardware everyone used.  If you bought near the peak, you never recovered.  Plenty of riskier things went to zero.  Intel, maybe the other nominee for Nvidia of its day, of course ran into trouble.

The possibilities are astounding.  But, the probability is far less than certain.  That is the fundamental puzzle for any investor in these areas to solve.  If you have enough money, you hedge your bets and expect the winners to cover the losers.  If you don't have a lot of money, you can buy an ETF that does the same for you. 

If you pick individual horses, then simply understand where you have crossed over from investing (calculation of future cash flows to reward the risk of your capital) to speculation (expecting something BIG, without being able to qualify risk or reward)  In that way, betting on Tesla's future, pre-recenue businesses isn't much different than buying bitcoin.  You have a belief, or not.

Considering these definitions, I go back to the title of the thread.  Perhaps half of us have been arguing if Tesla is a good speculation or not.
« Last Edit: Today at 12:24:15 PM by reeshau »