Author Topic: Is Tesla a good investment?  (Read 624445 times)

shinn497

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2700 on: March 10, 2025, 01:26:19 PM »
Gary Black has TSLA 6-12 PT at 380$, and he gives the catalysts. I personally believe that and am loading up on shares for this reason.

Gary Black? This is one of his negatives:

Quote from: https://xcancel.com/garyblack00/status/1898090750237110733
4/ FY’2025 deliv expectations (WS +11% YoY) too high (my FY’25 est +2-3%)

I'm not seeing it. Juniper isn't helping China sales (yet?), the Model 2/Q is an on again-off again rumor, so the sales growth comes from...the Cybertruck? Or the ever delayed FSD will achieve more than 500 miles per critical disengagement and people will rush to buy a Tesla even in China where a competitor includes it standard with many of their cars?

Deliveries will be lucky to be -2-3% given the declining sales in Europe, China, and the US. Deliveries this quarter are going to be really bad.

BYD's FSD can't compare to Teslas. The sales slump is due to people waiting for the new model Y (he made several tweets covering this). There has been declining sentiment for Democrats, but improving sentiment for republicans. I also think that this sentiment is short term because most people are not politically motivated.

Personally though, my play for TSLA is longer therm than ~1 year. I definitely think that in 5 years, they will have mastered FSD, have a mass market car that dominates in general (not just for EVs), be selling optimus, taking revenue from robotaxis, and Megapacks. Their only weakness seems to be solar, which is unfortunate since they could be capitalizing on lowering production costs.

dragoncar

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2701 on: March 10, 2025, 05:49:22 PM »
Wow... who thought getting puts is so much fun... hopefully I don't get addicted to options trading. I'm up 100% already. Maybe I'll sell a couple contracts to lock in some gains and let the rest ride.

I've never actually shorted anything, these are all short term cap gains I assume.

Yeah I think it's all taxable at regular rates so you actually have to short twice as much to cover your taxes

dividendman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2702 on: March 10, 2025, 06:36:56 PM »
Wow... who thought getting puts is so much fun... hopefully I don't get addicted to options trading. I'm up 100% already. Maybe I'll sell a couple contracts to lock in some gains and let the rest ride.

I've never actually shorted anything, these are all short term cap gains I assume.

Yeah I think it's all taxable at regular rates so you actually have to short twice as much to cover your taxes

Haha... I'm up 150%! Who knew shorting Nazi owned companies would be so profitable. Anyway, I already sold some contracts so I'm "up" no matter what... Now let's see by how much.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2025, 06:56:49 PM by dividendman »

Kapyarn

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2703 on: March 10, 2025, 06:47:58 PM »
I really feel like I missed out on this.  I should have known that Tesla would drop, not just the big drop today.

How did you short it? Puts? (I mean what length, date and price did you use?)

dragoncar

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2704 on: March 10, 2025, 10:43:57 PM »
I really feel like I missed out on this.  I should have known that Tesla would drop, not just the big drop today.

How did you short it? Puts? (I mean what length, date and price did you use?)

Can't speak for dividendman, but I'm definitely not a market timer.  I'm doing straight short sale (not options) in an amount matching my exposure via indices so I'm not actually making any money on this, and it's going to cost me in taxes, but I don't want to own the company.  So I'm paying .2-.4% in interest on my borrowed shares and I'm thinking of an exit if borrow rates get crazy, possibility of hostile takeover/merger, or PE ratio gets back to a regular car company.  But for now...


41_swish

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2705 on: March 10, 2025, 10:48:29 PM »
That scene in the dark night is so good

reeshau

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2706 on: March 10, 2025, 11:29:19 PM »
That Every scene in the dark night is so good
FIFY

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2707 on: March 11, 2025, 03:16:19 AM »
BYD's FSD can't compare to Teslas.
But adding a third competitor, I thought Waymo was far ahead of Tesla on FSD.

"Tesla's Autopilot is classified as Level 2 under the SAE six levels (0 to 5) of vehicle automation.[176] At this level, the car can act autonomously, but requires the driver to monitor the driving at all times and be prepared to take control at a moment's notice."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Autopilot#Driving_features

"Waymo is one of the leaders in Level 4 autonomous technology, operating its Waymo One service. This service uses Level 4 autonomous vehicles primarily for a public ride-hailing service in designated areas like Metro Phoenix, San Francisco, and is ramping up in Los Angeles County and Austin, Texas"
https://www.candtsolution.com/news_events-detail/the-six-level-of-autonomous-driving-explained/

waltworks

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2708 on: March 11, 2025, 06:48:09 AM »
The sales slump is due to people waiting for the new model Y (he made several tweets covering this).

It will be very interesting to see if this is true. Given that the sales slump started well before Musk jumped into the limelight and the MY was being refreshed (though it has accelerated dramatically), I don't see the logic. But that's just me.

I think it's quite possible that Musk and the board will have ended up capturing (via insider stock sales) the entire revenue stream of Tesla... forever. They have certainly captured far more than the company has yet generated which is astounding to me.

-W

dividendman

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2709 on: March 11, 2025, 09:29:51 AM »
I really feel like I missed out on this.  I should have known that Tesla would drop, not just the big drop today.

How did you short it? Puts? (I mean what length, date and price did you use?)

I bought puts on 2/28/2025 with a strike price of $150 and expiry on 12/19/2025. Unit cost $6.76... the price of the same puts are now ~$16, so up about ~135%. I also opened a smaller position way back on 9/24/2024 with a strike of $150 on 9/18/25 for $9.44... those are only at ~$12 right now so only up about 30%. I've already sold enough to cover the entire cost of the positions.

I don't suggest anyone do this as I think it's pretty much pure gambling and thought it would be a fun way to root against Musk/Tesla, but I'm happy it's worked out.

This is my first time using options!
« Last Edit: March 11, 2025, 09:36:29 AM by dividendman »

Kapyarn

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2710 on: March 11, 2025, 09:52:59 AM »
Is there a positive trade to be made if everyone torches their Tesla?  I mean the concept of global warming and benefits of electric vehicles still holds right, so would there be a big increase in sales from non-Nazi run car manufacturers and could buying options on these give big gains?

Stasher

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2711 on: March 11, 2025, 10:31:47 AM »
Enjoy.....

Quote
Anonymous. Discreet.
Don't waste any more time trying to sell your Tesla.
We'll take it from here...

https://stealmytesla.com

41_swish

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2712 on: March 11, 2025, 10:33:10 AM »
That Every scene in the dark night is so good
FIFY
You're right. That whole movie is good from start to finish.

Dicey

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2713 on: March 11, 2025, 10:41:53 AM »
Just an observation. DH and I made two runs from the Bay Area to Palm Springs and back in late January/ mid-February. The 5 was lousy with auto transports full of Teslas of all kinds, especially on the first leg of the trip. (It's roughly an 8-hour drive.)

We made the run again two weeks ago. We saw exactly zero Teslas on transports. It kinda tickled us.

bacchi

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2714 on: March 11, 2025, 10:42:09 AM »
Is there a positive trade to be made if everyone torches their Tesla?  I mean the concept of global warming and benefits of electric vehicles still holds right, so would there be a big increase in sales from non-Nazi run car manufacturers and could buying options on these give big gains?

The biggest benefactors of Tesla's decline are the Chinese companies. BYD, for example, increased sales 41% last year and is now selling 500k PH/EVs a month (BEV sales were 1.7M in 2024).

BEVs made by legacy manufacturers are still a sliver. VW sold 9M vehicles total in 2024 and only 700k were BEVs.

41_swish

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2715 on: March 11, 2025, 10:51:44 AM »
I want to say buy the dip, but I can't predict the future, and Elon seems to be doing irreversible damage to the brand.

I think about the people who are trading in their Teslas right now. Those were probably people who would have drove Teslas for the indefinite future. Now they are spending those dollars on other car brands and probably won't go back.

The company won't crash and burn to the ground, but the future seems murky.

GuitarStv

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2716 on: March 11, 2025, 11:01:26 AM »
I want to say buy the dip, but I can't predict the future, and Elon seems to be doing irreversible damage to the brand.

I think about the people who are trading in their Teslas right now. Those were probably people who would have drove Teslas for the indefinite future. Now they are spending those dollars on other car brands and probably won't go back.

The company won't crash and burn to the ground, but the future seems murky.

Are you sure?  Once they start paying 100 billion a year to Musk it's going to be pretty tough to succeed.

Kapyarn

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2717 on: March 11, 2025, 08:37:44 PM »
Not sure about buying the dip when people are having to disguise their Tesla now so it doesn't get vandalized...


Fru-Gal

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2718 on: March 11, 2025, 08:49:11 PM »
The Musk/Trump car sales pitch at the White House was the cringiest, most desperate thing ever.

Trump really is a Svengali for certain people... I wouldn't have believed it before but I now think he's going to destroy Musk. As he has done to so many of his other henchmen.

41_swish

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2719 on: March 11, 2025, 09:04:31 PM »
I want to say buy the dip, but I can't predict the future, and Elon seems to be doing irreversible damage to the brand.

I think about the people who are trading in their Teslas right now. Those were probably people who would have drove Teslas for the indefinite future. Now they are spending those dollars on other car brands and probably won't go back.

The company won't crash and burn to the ground, but the future seems murky.

Are you sure?  Once they start paying 100 billion a year to Musk it's going to be pretty tough to succeed.
I am not sure. Nobody is. If Tesla starts get 100 billion a year in contracts the stock price will rocket, but nobody really knows if that will ever come to fruition and for how long.

NorCal

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2720 on: March 11, 2025, 10:17:28 PM »
I think there is now a demographic which will go out and buy Tesla’s to “own the libs”. It will be successful at the margins, but not enough to offset falling sales elsewhere.

This will also go down in history as the weirdest culture-war outcome in recorded history.

I guess I’ll take the environmentalist win of some hardcore conservatives getting into EV’s as an ideological/culture statement. I can’t say that was on my 2025 bingo card.

41_swish

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2721 on: March 11, 2025, 10:23:08 PM »
Oh, I am sure that demographic of owning the libs by buying an EV is out there, but it seems niche at best.

The cyber truck does seem like the new MAGA mobile.

Kapyarn

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2722 on: March 11, 2025, 11:11:26 PM »
Slap a General Lee wrap on that bad boy and presto, MAGA Cybertruck.

They may want to add a option to generate black smoke though.

41_swish

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2723 on: March 11, 2025, 11:20:12 PM »
Rolling coal in an EV is wild they are such dorks

dragoncar

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2724 on: March 11, 2025, 11:57:15 PM »
Im surprised they don’t have at least a diesel range extender

Monocle Money Mouth

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2725 on: March 12, 2025, 02:55:04 AM »
Musk has burned up the good will he had with his primary customer base of educated progressives over the last 3 years. I used to want a Tesla but after the Twitter acquisition, his shift to hard right politics, and the nazi salutes, I don't. As long as Musk's net worth is tied to that company, I will never buy one. I wish I could sell all the Tesla in my index funds too.

I'm sure there will be some republicans who change their minds about electric cars and buy a Tesla now. Anecdotally, most of the republicans in my life think electric cars are the automotive equivalent of the boogie man that will burst into flames and leave you stranded on the road. They also think you will be on a perpetual road trip where you need 400 miles of range between gas stations at all times.

neo von retorch

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2726 on: March 12, 2025, 06:08:35 AM »
Anecdotally, most of the republicans in my life think electric cars are the automotive equivalent of the boogie man that will burst into flames and leave you stranded on the road. They also think you will be on a perpetual road trip where you need 400 miles of range between gas stations at all times.

Anecdotally, they believe that you "use all the gas up building them." (There's some truth to higher initial energy usage, though it's been improved upon, and as they get more efficient, the miles to pay that back is getting lower. I think the most recent estimate was ~11,000 miles.)

Telecaster

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2727 on: March 12, 2025, 09:45:40 AM »
Here's a bull case for Tesla.   Elon just announced US Tesla production will double in two years.

The numbers are little hard to find easily, but it appears current US production is about 700,000/year out of 1.8 million sold globally.    So that means in two years Tesla anticipates selling 2.5 million cars--assuming no global growth at all.    That's a 40% increase.   But it gets better.   Musk tweeted that by 2030, Tesla will be selling 20 million cars a year--more than VW and Toyota combined!   

With that rate of growth, TSLA's eye popping PE of 120 doesn't seem unreasonable at all. 

Of course, this assumes what Musk says is in some way connected to objective reality.

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/elon-musk-says-tesla-will-double-us-production-in-next-two-years-3922484

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/10/02/elon-musk-tesla-aiming-for-20-million-vehicles-year-by-2030/


GuitarStv

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2728 on: March 12, 2025, 10:00:44 AM »
Of course, this assumes what Musk says is in some way connected to objective reality.

Musk has always been disconnected from reality on his predictions.  See: his yearly claim that fully autonomous self-driving is only a month or two away - made for more than ten years in a row.

41_swish

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2729 on: March 12, 2025, 10:40:23 AM »
Of course, this assumes what Musk says is in some way connected to objective reality.

Musk has always been disconnected from reality on his predictions.  See: his yearly claim that fully autonomous self-driving is only a month or two away - made for more than ten years in a row.
He is as far from reality as you can be. There is no way he understands the day-to-day life of an average person. The dude has kids with women just to repopulate and not be a good dad

FINate

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2730 on: March 12, 2025, 11:39:39 AM »
Here's a bull case for Tesla.   Elon just announced US Tesla production will double in two years.

The numbers are little hard to find easily, but it appears current US production is about 700,000/year out of 1.8 million sold globally.    So that means in two years Tesla anticipates selling 2.5 million cars--assuming no global growth at all.    That's a 40% increase.   But it gets better.   Musk tweeted that by 2030, Tesla will be selling 20 million cars a year--more than VW and Toyota combined!   

With that rate of growth, TSLA's eye popping PE of 120 doesn't seem unreasonable at all. 

Of course, this assumes what Musk says is in some way connected to objective reality.

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/elon-musk-says-tesla-will-double-us-production-in-next-two-years-3922484

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/10/02/elon-musk-tesla-aiming-for-20-million-vehicles-year-by-2030/

I don't see evidence that Tesla's growth is production constrained--it is currently limited by demand. So they can produce however many cars they want, but this doesn't matter if they can't sell them.

Putting this aside, let's look at the Price/Earnings-to-Growth Ratio (PEG ratio), which is just P/E divided by expected earnings growth rate, usually with a time horizon of 3-5 years. A ratio less than 1 suggest an undervalued stock, 1 is fairly valued and greater than one suggests overvalued.

TSLA's expected EPS growth rate is currently around 13.7%. So a P/E of 120 would put the PEG ratio at 8.8, which is exceptionally high.

Earnings would have to more than double every year (120% growth) for the next 3-5 years to justify the current P/E ratio.

Interestingly, going from selling 2M cars/year to 20M requires doubling sales every year for a little over 4 years, which would put us around year 2030. That's a bold prediction that needs justification, especially with demand for their vehicles decreasing.

I strongly suspect that Musk, in an attempt to defend TSLA price, is working backwards from the desired outcome.

reeshau

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2731 on: March 12, 2025, 12:00:19 PM »
Oh, I am sure that demographic of owning the libs by buying an EV is out there, but it seems niche at best.

The cyber truck does seem like the new MAGA mobile.

Another wrinkle: Tesla are not so convenient to buy (or service) in many red states.  Buyers will have to navigate the "strange" processes.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_US_dealership_disputes

To be fair, there are a number of blue states that still protect the independence of dealerships, too.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2732 on: March 13, 2025, 04:09:35 AM »
Here's a bull case for Tesla.   Elon just announced US Tesla production will double in two years.

The numbers are little hard to find easily, but it appears current US production is about 700,000/year out of 1.8 million sold globally.    So that means in two years Tesla anticipates selling 2.5 million cars--assuming no global growth at all.    That's a 40% increase.   But it gets better.   Musk tweeted that by 2030, Tesla will be selling 20 million cars a year--more than VW and Toyota combined!   

With that rate of growth, TSLA's eye popping PE of 120 doesn't seem unreasonable at all. 

Of course, this assumes what Musk says is in some way connected to objective reality.

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/elon-musk-says-tesla-will-double-us-production-in-next-two-years-3922484

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/10/02/elon-musk-tesla-aiming-for-20-million-vehicles-year-by-2030/

Seems like most of this gain would come from some combination of maximizing current production capacity (Tesla's plants are not currently at full production capacity), and bringing new models online like the Cybercab, Semi, and the mystery "Affordable" model they've been promising to release this year but haven't shown to anybody yet. This isn't really a new revelation, just reaffirming what Musk has already been barking about for ~6 months or more.

The last time Musk made an announcement like this (Oct 2024), TSLA price jumped a bunch and made Elon lots of money. Probably just trying to stem the tide now, hoping for a similar bounce

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-allays-investor-fears-with-crucial-ev-growth-forecast-shares-jump-2024-10-24/

Meanwhile, Tesla registrations fell 11% in the US YoY, and market share dropped by 12% even though they're still the biggest fish in the (US) EV pond by a long shot:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-brand-damage-u-registrations-103817909.html


reeshau

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2733 on: March 13, 2025, 07:42:29 AM »
From the WSJ this morning:

GuitarStv

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2734 on: March 13, 2025, 07:55:26 AM »
Here's a bull case for Tesla.   Elon just announced US Tesla production will double in two years.

The numbers are little hard to find easily, but it appears current US production is about 700,000/year out of 1.8 million sold globally.    So that means in two years Tesla anticipates selling 2.5 million cars--assuming no global growth at all.    That's a 40% increase.   But it gets better.   Musk tweeted that by 2030, Tesla will be selling 20 million cars a year--more than VW and Toyota combined!   

With that rate of growth, TSLA's eye popping PE of 120 doesn't seem unreasonable at all. 

Of course, this assumes what Musk says is in some way connected to objective reality.

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/elon-musk-says-tesla-will-double-us-production-in-next-two-years-3922484

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/10/02/elon-musk-tesla-aiming-for-20-million-vehicles-year-by-2030/

Seems like most of this gain would come from some combination of maximizing current production capacity (Tesla's plants are not currently at full production capacity), and bringing new models online like the Cybercab, Semi, and the mystery "Affordable" model they've been promising to release this year but haven't shown to anybody yet. This isn't really a new revelation, just reaffirming what Musk has already been barking about for ~6 months or more.

But Musk said that the Tesla Semi would be in full production in 2019.  That was six years ago.  Are you telling me he was lying about that too?

neo von retorch

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2735 on: March 13, 2025, 08:26:15 AM »
Ex-Tesla Alums Debut New Electric Roadster Named To Taunt Elon Musk

Quote
  • Longbow is a new EV car company out of the UK that aims to launch two new sports cars.
  • Dubbed the Speedster and the Roadster, they prioritize lightweight design above all else.
  • Reservations are open for the Speedster starting at $110,000 and the Roadster at $84,000.

Hopefully their hubris doesn't bite them in the ass. Karma for mocking missed release predictions and all that.

Quote
“A lot of customers have put deposits down for a Roadster they can’t get,” Davy told the magazine. “So we thought we’d be the first electric Roadster to actually follow the Tesla Roadster. If people want to get their $250,000 deposit back for a 2020 car and put it into something better, they’ll get one sooner with us. They’re welcome to do it. Our Roadster’s going to be on the ground first.”

Fingers crossed they succeed (in at least some of their aspirations). Creating aspirational light EV sports cars would help the rest of the industry along. Maybe some lessons learned on how to make fast, light, tossable EVs?!

41_swish

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2736 on: March 13, 2025, 09:48:59 AM »
Oh, I am sure that demographic of owning the libs by buying an EV is out there, but it seems niche at best.

The cyber truck does seem like the new MAGA mobile.

Another wrinkle: Tesla are not so convenient to buy (or service) in many red states.  Buyers will have to navigate the "strange" processes.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_US_dealership_disputes

To be fair, there are a number of blue states that still protect the independence of dealerships, too.
I actually knew someone who experience this firsthand. They would often times have to drive from a red state to a blue state to get their Tesla serviced. It was quite the pain in the rear end. It was almost nearly impossible to get the mobile service to drive three hours to them.

I guess there is some niche urban republicans who could buy Teslas but that just feels strange

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2737 on: March 13, 2025, 10:52:50 AM »
Oh, I am sure that demographic of owning the libs by buying an EV is out there, but it seems niche at best.

The cyber truck does seem like the new MAGA mobile.
Another wrinkle: Tesla are not so convenient to buy (or service) in many red states.  Buyers will have to navigate the "strange" processes.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_US_dealership_disputes

To be fair, there are a number of blue states that still protect the independence of dealerships, too.
I actually knew someone who experience this firsthand. They would often times have to drive from a red state to a blue state to get their Tesla serviced. It was quite the pain in the rear end. It was almost nearly impossible to get the mobile service to drive three hours to them.

I guess there is some niche urban republicans who could buy Teslas but that just feels strange
I know some semi-rural Republicans with long commutes who bought a Model 3. They sold it last year because they couldn't get basic services done, without driving it 2 hours to a larger city with an authorized service center. Well, if it can drive that far, maybe it doesn't need service? The replacement was an ICE SUV.

A lack of service options won't always be a problem for Tesla, but the company's heady margins were achieved by not supporting customers like these, many of whom are feeling burnt and saying never again. It may not be sustainable.

Meanwhile, my social media feeds are utterly full of videos of Cybertrucks getting stuck on dirt hills, and being pulled out by ICE trucks. Apparently their traction control and suspension are very bad for off-roading. I wonder if the petroleum industry is funding some of these influencers. Anyway, this mockery campaign is exactly the sort of thing that will sway conservative car buyers back into traditional V8 powered GM/Ford/Stellantis pickups. Just because a company is conservative-run doesn't mean conservatives will buy their products.

41_swish

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2738 on: March 13, 2025, 11:05:50 AM »
The juice does not seem worth the squeeze in that scenario. The American auto makers and the South Koreans are really stepped up their game in the last five years. I am sure that will continue. Tesla's have lost a good chunk of what made them unique and special.

FireLane

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2739 on: March 13, 2025, 11:28:37 AM »
Something I learned on TikTok today: Cybertrucks have aluminum frames.

This matters because there's a thing called the "fatigue limit". Some metals have it, some don't. If a metal has a fatigue limit, that means that any amount of force less than the fatigue limit can be applied to that metal an infinite number of times without causing any structural damage or degradation.

Steel and titanium have a fatigue limit. Aluminum doesn't.

This means that, every time you use a Cybertruck to tow something heavy, you're weakening its frame by a small but irreversible amount. Eventually, it's going to fail catastrophically. These trucks have a finite lifespan from the moment they're built.

FINate

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2740 on: March 13, 2025, 01:38:23 PM »
Something I learned on TikTok today: Cybertrucks have aluminum frames.

This matters because there's a thing called the "fatigue limit". Some metals have it, some don't. If a metal has a fatigue limit, that means that any amount of force less than the fatigue limit can be applied to that metal an infinite number of times without causing any structural damage or degradation.

Steel and titanium have a fatigue limit. Aluminum doesn't.

This means that, every time you use a Cybertruck to tow something heavy, you're weakening its frame by a small but irreversible amount. Eventually, it's going to fail catastrophically. These trucks have a finite lifespan from the moment they're built.

This is why Ford, to reduce weight, replaced the F-150's steel body panels with aluminum while keeping the steel frame.

Tesla did the exact opposite and increased the weight of the body with heavy thick stainless while going with a cast aluminum frame. Well, not exactly a frame, it's really more of a unibody design.

This will go down as one of the great automotive marketing failures. I don't mean advertising, but rather the broader sense of the word. Marketing is about understanding the market, what motivates consumers. Musk assumed toughness for trucks was all about appearance, absurdities such as bullet resistant "exoskeletons." I've seen similar mistakes on this forum, assuming pickups are all about looking manly while only being used as grocery haulers. For sure, this is true for a part of the market, but there are trucks that address this segment.

The traditional Body on Frame (BoF) truck doesn't exist because designers are lazy or afraid to try something different. It exists because it's the best most reliable way to tow and haul stuff. A contractor can tow a 10,000 lb utility trailer daily without worrying about damaging the vehicle. The guy driving to an office job in a pickup is, very often, towing a boat or travel trailer on the weekend.

The BoF design is also better for off-roading. Not only is it more durable than unibody, but it also flexes. Flex in a frame is bad for street driving, but it allows for greater articulation off-road. This means the wheels are more likely to remain on the ground, which is what you want. From what I can see, part of the reason the Cybertruck performs so poorly off-road is its large and super stiff body.

It's sad to think what Tesla could have accomplished if they had instead focused on building a low-cost utility pickup instead of Musk's vanity project.

waltworks

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2741 on: March 13, 2025, 04:21:29 PM »
To be fair, you can engineer aluminum structures so that the failure is 1) very predictable and 2) very far in the future. Then you just (airplane parts) retire when you know you need to, with of course some safety cushion.

I would be surprised if cybertruck frames started breaking.

That said, it's still an idiotic POS.

-W

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41_swish

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2743 on: March 17, 2025, 09:55:04 AM »
I am really trying not to be super political. Liberals tend to be loud on the internet and they have been for this. Tesla's stock has decline to lower than where it was before Trump was elected, but a lot of stocks have declined pretty bad since Trump's inauguration. How much of the decline is from the general market? At least some. How much decline is from his antics and God knows what else? At least some.

I don't think Tesla is doomed to crash and burn to the ground, but Elon has posed questions about how effective his leadership is. I feel like the really worrying thing with Teslas is their meh build quality. It was fine 10 years ago when they were the new player, but now people are getting tired of that.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2744 on: March 17, 2025, 10:04:31 AM »
Liberals tend to be loud on the internet and they have been for this.

I find populists really loud online, but I think that's just a reaction to when they frequently say stuff that's factually incoherent to align with their Great Leader's latest random pronouncement. Things that make sense to you don't jar the brain and seem so "loud". I wouldn't be shocked to find all the political stripes post their thoughts online about the same amount.

dragoncar

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2745 on: March 17, 2025, 12:13:17 PM »
Liberals tend to be loud on the internet and they have been for this.

I find populists really loud online, but I think that's just a reaction to when they frequently say stuff that's factually incoherent to align with their Great Leader's latest random pronouncement. Things that make sense to you don't jar the brain and seem so "loud". I wouldn't be shocked to find all the political stripes post their thoughts online about the same amount.

Elon seems extremely loud to me

bacchi

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2746 on: March 17, 2025, 12:33:16 PM »
Liberals tend to be loud on the internet and they have been for this.

I find populists really loud online, but I think that's just a reaction to when they frequently say stuff that's factually incoherent to align with their Great Leader's latest random pronouncement. Things that make sense to you don't jar the brain and seem so "loud". I wouldn't be shocked to find all the political stripes post their thoughts online about the same amount.

Elon seems extremely loud to me

His average Xcrements last summer was 68/day. He's been hitting the keyboard, and the ketamine, even more this year.

Heckler

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2747 on: March 17, 2025, 01:24:44 PM »
Xcrements, lol.

Thanks for that!

GuitarStv

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2748 on: March 17, 2025, 01:26:06 PM »
Musk is definitely prioritizing Tesla these days to earn that 100 mil salary.  The fanbois must be so proud.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is Tesla a good investment?
« Reply #2749 on: March 17, 2025, 03:53:53 PM »
Liberals tend to be loud on the internet and they have been for this.
I find populists really loud online, but I think that's just a reaction to when they frequently say stuff that's factually incoherent to align with their Great Leader's latest random pronouncement. Things that make sense to you don't jar the brain and seem so "loud". I wouldn't be shocked to find all the political stripes post their thoughts online about the same amount.
Elon seems extremely loud to me
His average Xcrements last summer was 68/day. He's been hitting the keyboard, and the ketamine, even more this year.
I think billionaires and top government officials have PR teams to do this for them, while creating the illusion of Someone Who Just Wants To Communicate Directly With You Because They're Just So Damn Authentic. There is no way for us to prove or disprove the hypothesis.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!