Is Tesla a good investment?

[TomTX]

The BESS market growth projections are all over the place; McKinsey suggests it'll be a $120B-150B market in 2030.

However, unlike EVs, there are many strong players in the BESS space. CATL, BYD, Siemens, Hitachi, LG, Tesla, and Panasonic, among others, are installing BESS systems around the world.

While it's a growing market, and it'll be profitable, it's very fragmented. Tesla isn't currently the leader in BESS and it may never be because the largest market is Asia, where CATL and BYD reign.

In 1980, McKinsey & Company was commissioned by AT&T (whose Bell Labs had invented cellular telephony) to forecast cell phone penetration in the U.S. by 2000. The consultant's prediction, 900,000 subscribers, was less than 1% of the actual figure, 109 Million.

This is standard practice for these consulting companies - they simply cannot deal with disruptive technologies and chronically underpredict by massive amounts. This is not unique to consultants: EIA and IEA massively underpredicted the increase in utility scale wind and solar power. IEA has been doing this for decades - and so egregiously, their "30 year" prediction for solar is usually exceeded within 2 years of making the projection.

The utility scale battery market is changing explosively fast. In just the past 3 years (mid-2020 to mid-2023) the backlog of battery projects under study by ERCOT (studies paid for by developers who want to build the projects) has gone from 18GW to 112GW. Increase of 6x in just 3 years - and in the meantime, about 5GW have actually been installed.

[bacchi]

The BESS market growth projections are all over the place; McKinsey suggests it'll be a $120B-150B market in 2030.

However, unlike EVs, there are many strong players in the BESS space. CATL, BYD, Siemens, Hitachi, LG, Tesla, and Panasonic, among others, are installing BESS systems around the world.

While it's a growing market, and it'll be profitable, it's very fragmented. Tesla isn't currently the leader in BESS and it may never be because the largest market is Asia, where CATL and BYD reign.

In 1980, McKinsey & Company was commissioned by AT&T (whose Bell Labs had invented cellular telephony) to forecast cell phone penetration in the U.S. by 2000. The consultant's prediction, 900,000 subscribers, was less than 1% of the actual figure, 109 Million.

This is standard practice for these consulting companies - they simply cannot deal with disruptive technologies and chronically underpredict by massive amounts. This is not unique to consultants: EIA and IEA massively underpredicted the increase in utility scale wind and solar power. IEA has been doing this for decades - and so egregiously, their "30 year" prediction for solar is usually exceeded within 2 years of making the projection.

The utility scale battery market is changing explosively fast. In just the past 3 years (mid-2020 to mid-2023) the backlog of battery projects under study by ERCOT (studies paid for by developers who want to build the projects) has gone from 18GW to 112GW. Increase of 6x in just 3 years - and in the meantime, about 5GW have actually been installed.

Ok, fair enough. The BESS market will probably grow exponentially, especially as the world races to lower CO2 emissions.

However, BEV cars were a disruptive technology and Tesla got a huge head start. The BESS market has many competitors and Tesla might even be considered a laggard (CATL installed more BESS in 2021 than Tesla did in Q3x4). The question is, then, how much of a $1T?+ market can Tesla get when there are over 10 established companies and when China seems to favor Chinese companies?

The good news for Tesla is BESS installs look to be highly profitable.

[mistymoney]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/05/business/hyundai-tesla-ev-charging/index.html

South Korean automakers Kia, Hyundai and luxury auto brand Genesis announced Thursday that their electric vehicles in the United States will have Tesla-style charging ports, starting in the last quarter of 2024. This will allow owners of those vehicles to seamlessly use Tesla chargers.

[EchoStache]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/05/business/hyundai-tesla-ev-charging/index.html

South Korean automakers Kia, Hyundai and luxury auto brand Genesis announced Thursday that their electric vehicles in the United States will have Tesla-style charging ports, starting in the last quarter of 2024. This will allow owners of those vehicles to seamlessly use Tesla chargers.

I'm happy for this specific announcement.  We have a 2022 Kia Niro.  Gaining access to Tesla's network in Q12025 will make this a much better EV for us.  Trade in/resale is far too low to consider anything other than keeping it for 5-10 years.  It doesn't charge very fast, but access to SC's will be amazing as we will travel long distances at times for work.

[waltworks]

Sorry about the recent slide, everyone. My 11 yo son finally saved up enough (from Ebaying junk he finds!) to buy a share of Tesla on... Monday.

I have not told him about the current price, we've discussed investing for the long term already and he's just excited to own a share. He already forgot about the couple hundred bucks of ESGV he bought this summer, basically, so hopefully I can surprise him when he's 30 with a bunch of his own money or something.

But yeah, it'll be an interesting next year or two for Tesla.

-W

[lemonlyman]

Earning money and buying assets at 11...Awesome! My kids aren't old enough for that yet, but I'll try to point them in that kind of direction. That's so cool.

[mistymoney]

Sorry about the recent slide, everyone. My 11 yo son finally saved up enough (from Ebaying junk he finds!) to buy a share of Tesla on... Monday.

I have not told him about the current price, we've discussed investing for the long term already and he's just excited to own a share. He already forgot about the couple hundred bucks of ESGV he bought this summer, basically, so hopefully I can surprise him when he's 30 with a bunch of his own money or something.

But yeah, it'll be an interesting next year or two for Tesla.

-W

Nice!

[mistymoney]

Tesla's selling a bunch of chargers to BP?

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/26/business/bp-buys-usd100-million-worth-of-tesla-chargers/index.html#:~:text=Oil%20and%20gas%20company%20BP,to%20an%20announcement%20from%20BP.

this seems.....a weird development!

[GuitarStv]

Tesla's selling a bunch of chargers to BP?

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/26/business/bp-buys-usd100-million-worth-of-tesla-chargers/index.html#:~:text=Oil%20and%20gas%20company%20BP,to%20an%20announcement%20from%20BP.

this seems.....a weird development!

Hope it's not like when car companies bought up transit lines in major cities across North America and then purposely mismanaged them to make them miserable to use and finally closed them.

[ChpBstrd]

Sorry about the recent slide, everyone. My 11 yo son finally saved up enough (from Ebaying junk he finds!) to buy a share of Tesla on... Monday.

I have not told him about the current price, we've discussed investing for the long term already and he's just excited to own a share. He already forgot about the couple hundred bucks of ESGV he bought this summer, basically, so hopefully I can surprise him when he's 30 with a bunch of his own money or something.

But yeah, it'll be an interesting next year or two for Tesla.

-W

Was the 11 year old excited about Tesla and someday owning such a car in the future, or was it just a speculative investment for him?

[waltworks]

Was the 11 year old excited about Tesla and someday owning such a car in the future, or was it just a speculative investment for him?

I think a little of both. He did initially buy some index funds earlier this year and I've talked to him about that but he is definitely a Tesla fanboy (in this case literally, not merely figuratively) as well.

-W

[mistymoney]

Was the 11 year old excited about Tesla and someday owning such a car in the future, or was it just a speculative investment for him?

I think a little of both. He did initially buy some index funds earlier this year and I've talked to him about that but he is definitely a Tesla fanboy (in this case literally, not merely figuratively) as well.

-W

LOL! hopefully he'll be buying a tesla in a few years! I'll be looking for the former-11-year-old cohort bump in sales. :)

[AdrianC]

Good piece: Damodaran's Tesla Valuation

Tesla in November 2023: Story twists & turns, with value consequences!
https://aswathdamodaran.substack.com/p/tesla-in-november-2023-story-twists

At $197 a share, Tesla remains over valued, at least based on my story, but a stock that has dropped $54 in price in the last few weeks could very well drop another $20 in the next few. To capture that possibility, I have a limit buy at my estimated value of $180, with the acceptance that it may never hit that price in this iteration.

[ColoradoTribe]

Good piece: Damodaran's Tesla Valuation

Tesla in November 2023: Story twists & turns, with value consequences!
https://aswathdamodaran.substack.com/p/tesla-in-november-2023-story-twists

At $197 a share, Tesla remains over valued, at least based on my story, but a stock that has dropped $54 in price in the last few weeks could very well drop another $20 in the next few. To capture that possibility, I have a limit buy at my estimated value of $180, with the acceptance that it may never hit that price in this iteration.

From the second paragraph:

When I write and teach valuation, I describe it as a craft, and there are very few companies that I enjoy practicing that craft more than I do with Tesla. Along the way, I have been wrong often on the company, and if you are one of those who only reads valuations by people who get it right all the time, you should skip the rest of this post, because I will cheerfully admit that I will be wrong again, though I don't know in which direction.

Stopped reading at that point. Would seem odd to take advice from someone who has been wrong on Tesla for the past decade. Sure, he might end up being right someday, but even broken clocks are accurate twice a day.

[ChpBstrd]

Good piece: Damodaran's Tesla Valuation

Tesla in November 2023: Story twists & turns, with value consequences!
https://aswathdamodaran.substack.com/p/tesla-in-november-2023-story-twists

At $197 a share, Tesla remains over valued, at least based on my story, but a stock that has dropped $54 in price in the last few weeks could very well drop another $20 in the next few. To capture that possibility, I have a limit buy at my estimated value of $180, with the acceptance that it may never hit that price in this iteration.

From the second paragraph:

When I write and teach valuation, I describe it as a craft, and there are very few companies that I enjoy practicing that craft more than I do with Tesla. Along the way, I have been wrong often on the company, and if you are one of those who only reads valuations by people who get it right all the time, you should skip the rest of this post, because I will cheerfully admit that I will be wrong again, though I don't know in which direction.

Stopped reading at that point. Would seem odd to take advice from someone who has been wrong on Tesla for the past decade. Sure, he might end up being right someday, but even broken clocks are accurate twice a day.

Yea, the lack of confidence is off putting. That's why all the YouTube stock pickers - and Cramer too! - show 100% enthusiasm and excitement when they find a company they like. YMMV with investing based on influencers' confidence levels.

[lemonlyman]

Wow. Weird model.

A.) Robotaxi active in 2027
B.) Only $80 billion in Revenue from Robotax in 2033
C.) Energy revenue to only double by 2033 even though it's growing at 50% since just last year.  With Lathrop scaling this year and a vertically integrated lithium refinery coming online next year, that's an odd forecast. *Misread what he said.


The auto business is the usual model to pick at, but I'm stunned the above are being modeled at all by him. If Robotaxi actually works, it's not a supplemental business item. It's THE business.

[maizefolk]

For context, $80B/year would be a bit more than 2x the combined worldwide revenues of Uber + Lyft.

One can certainly argue it should be higher or lower than that. But $80B/year (and presumably much higher profit margins than current ride share companies that have to pay drivers) is a respectable -- more than respectable, huge -- number by the standards of companies that operate in the same space currently.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

"BREAKING: Senator Tommy Tuberville just bought puts against Elon Musk's Tesla.

He bought $50k in $TSLA $190 puts expiring 12/15/2023"

https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1725281994844831865

The leveraged, negative exposure to $TSLA was actually purchased a month ago, and expires in another month.

[mistymoney]

"BREAKING: Senator Tommy Tuberville just bought puts against Elon Musk's Tesla.

He bought $50k in $TSLA $190 puts expiring 12/15/2023"

https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1725281994844831865

The leveraged, negative exposure to $TSLA was actually purchased a month ago, and expires in another month.

Is "puts against" like shorting?

And how are politician who legislate allowed to do so? that part seems crazy!

[waltworks]

For context, $80B/year would be a bit more than 2x the combined worldwide revenues of Uber + Lyft.

One can certainly argue it should be higher or lower than that. But $80B/year (and presumably much higher profit margins than current ride share companies that have to pay drivers) is a respectable -- more than respectable, huge -- number by the standards of companies that operate in the same space currently.

I think that like with many Tesla businesses, the idea of $80b being too low rests on the idea that Robotaxis will replace Lyft/Uber/YellowCab and simultaneously create a new market by being cheaper/easier than owning your own car (or purchasing a car to begin with), so everyone will just take a Robotaxi everywhere and Tesla will be rolling in money.

There's some logic there. A lot of the world doesn't own a car, and most cars sit idle 95% of the time. So a really good robotaxi fleet with some smart dispatching software could theoretically be way more efficient.

I can see this being plausible but probably not in a single decade. There are a lot of people who for whatever reason like to drive/own their own car and probably most folks older than Millennial age will have to have their keyfobs pried from their cold dead hands. .

-W

[mistymoney]

For context, $80B/year would be a bit more than 2x the combined worldwide revenues of Uber + Lyft.

One can certainly argue it should be higher or lower than that. But $80B/year (and presumably much higher profit margins than current ride share companies that have to pay drivers) is a respectable -- more than respectable, huge -- number by the standards of companies that operate in the same space currently.

I think that like with many Tesla businesses, the idea of $80b being too low rests on the idea that Robotaxis will replace Lyft/Uber/YellowCab and simultaneously create a new market by being cheaper/easier than owning your own car (or purchasing a car to begin with), so everyone will just take a Robotaxi everywhere and Tesla will be rolling in money.

There's some logic there. A lot of the world doesn't own a car, and most cars sit idle 95% of the time. So a really good robotaxi fleet with some smart dispatching software could theoretically be way more efficient.

I can see this being plausible but probably not in a single decade. There are a lot of people who for whatever reason like to drive/own their own car and probably most folks older than Millennial age will have to have their keyfobs pried from their cold dead hands. .

-W

if FSD does come to pass, it will be very interesting to watch what happens with the robotaxi idea. My M3 latest self parking was a huge fail! i think they have a way to go as yet. :)

I'm very boomer adjacent in age. I'd be delighted not to need a car at all, have one come by appt and not have to deal with a driver. It would be a huge cost savings overall - and while some do love to drive, many are either stressed by it or just don't enjoy it. I'm in between, when traffic is nice with the radio on and the heated seats going along....it's nice! A traffic jam when you are in a hurry with assholes driving badly all around with their road rage bubbling up, not so nice!

My issue with relying permanently on robotaxis would be cleanliness of the interior - aka other peoples kooties. And if they smoked or had heavy perfume or left garbage, I'd be pretty irritated. Stale smoke off their clothes even if they didn't smoke in the car or perfume would give me headaches that lasted long past the ride itself - so a lot to work out ater FSD is a done deal.

Still - seems tech and AI are heading to a critical point of dramatic societal change. It is exciting and scary, and I don't particularly like musk in one of the key roles here....Still hoping tesla cans him soon. or for god's sake shut him the f* up. He is an ugly personality and likes to wave it around.

[ChpBstrd]

"BREAKING: Senator Tommy Tuberville just bought puts against Elon Musk's Tesla.

He bought $50k in $TSLA $190 puts expiring 12/15/2023"

https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1725281994844831865

The leveraged, negative exposure to $TSLA was actually purchased a month ago, and expires in another month.

I don't trust Twitter as a news source. Is there another source?

[MustacheAndaHalf]

A put option goes short with leverage.  The closer $TSLA drops to the strike price ($190 in this case), the more its worth.  If he sold already, he made a multiple of his investment.

I don't see any mainstream coverage of this story from X (formerly known as Twitter).  I don't think this qualifies, but it's the closest I got:
https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/23/11/35843401/senators-bearish-tesla-bet-under-scrutiny-as-he-buys-put-options-ahead-of-elon-musk-led-companys

Newsweek covered the same Senator 3 weeks ago in another situation, where he knew a certain product was effective before the public.
https://www.newsweek.com/republican-senator-stock-trade-linked-russia-war-raises-eyerbrows-1820658

And if you want to move up the news quality chain to the more general question of members of Congress being investors, the New York Times covered it a year ago.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/09/13/us/politics/congress-stock-trading-investigation.html

[DarkandStormy]

For context, $80B/year would be a bit more than 2x the combined worldwide revenues of Uber + Lyft.

One can certainly argue it should be higher or lower than that. But $80B/year (and presumably much higher profit margins than current ride share companies that have to pay drivers) is a respectable -- more than respectable, huge -- number by the standards of companies that operate in the same space currently.

I think that like with many Tesla businesses, the idea of $80b being too low rests on the idea that Robotaxis will replace Lyft/Uber/YellowCab and simultaneously create a new market by being cheaper/easier than owning your own car (or purchasing a car to begin with), so everyone will just take a Robotaxi everywhere and Tesla will be rolling in money.

There's some logic there. A lot of the world doesn't own a car, and most cars sit idle 95% of the time. So a really good robotaxi fleet with some smart dispatching software could theoretically be way more efficient.

I can see this being plausible but probably not in a single decade. There are a lot of people who for whatever reason like to drive/own their own car and probably most folks older than Millennial age will have to have their keyfobs pried from their cold dead hands. .

-W

if FSD does come to pass, it will be very interesting to watch what happens with the robotaxi idea. My M3 latest self parking was a huge fail! i think they have a way to go as yet. :)

I'm very boomer adjacent in age. I'd be delighted not to need a car at all, have one come by appt and not have to deal with a driver. It would be a huge cost savings overall - and while some do love to drive, many are either stressed by it or just don't enjoy it. I'm in between, when traffic is nice with the radio on and the heated seats going along....it's nice! A traffic jam when you are in a hurry with assholes driving badly all around with their road rage bubbling up, not so nice!

My issue with relying permanently on robotaxis would be cleanliness of the interior - aka other peoples kooties. And if they smoked or had heavy perfume or left garbage, I'd be pretty irritated. Stale smoke off their clothes even if they didn't smoke in the car or perfume would give me headaches that lasted long past the ride itself - so a lot to work out ater FSD is a done deal.

Still - seems tech and AI are heading to a critical point of dramatic societal change. It is exciting and scary, and I don't particularly like musk in one of the key roles here....Still hoping tesla cans him soon. or for god's sake shut him the f* up. He is an ugly personality and likes to wave it around.

Why do you think we're close?  Seems like it's just been disaster after disaster lately.

Uber, Google, and others have been working on autonomous driving for over a decade, promising it's close.

Elon has said "next year" for each of the last ten years.

At some point, you've got to stop believing the boy who cries wolf.

[DarkandStormy]

Months ago, I predicted that Tesla will eventually transition from tech wonderstock to just another carmaker. I said their margins were going to shrink due to lots of electric competition arriving in 2023. In the past few months we've seen massive five-figure price cuts that will definitely affect margins. I said they'd have to start advertising, and Musk just this week said they'll have to start doing exactly that. It's mid-2023 and we still can't buy a Cybertruck three and a half years after its announcement. Meanwhile, Ford has been selling its e-truck for a year now.

There was a case being made 6, 12, and 24 months ago that Tesla had so many entrenched advantages and such a unique product that competitors couldn't possibly catch up. People were multiplying Tesla's projected car sale volume growth of the past against margins from 2021. Back then, Tesla could charge a premium while not advertising and while running operations at 100% to meet seemingly insatiable demand. That view is not aging well and I saw it coming.

TSLA 6-mo return: -7.14%
TSLA 12-mo return: -28.01%
TSLA 24-mo return: -11.72%

HMC 6-mo return: +18.52%
HMC 12-mo return:  +13.23%
HMC 24-mo return: -6.55%

TM 6-mo return: -0.13%
TM 12-mo return: -10.75%
TM 24-mo return: -8.9%

Might be time to update your numbers. Stock up $80/share since you posted the above.

Congrats to the longs!

TSLA has underperformed SPY by 52% and QQQ by 56% since January 1, 2021.

HODL'ing TSLA has been a disaster for the last 3+ years.

[maizefolk]

Elon has said "next year" for each of the last ten years.

At some point, you've got to stop believing the boy who cries wolf.

Tesla has certainly missed a lot of Musk predicted timelines, but the earliest Musk quote I could find was one from 2016 saying Tesla's would be able to drive better than humans in 2-3 years (so 2019). But I certainly could have missed something. Where are you seeing he was promising full self driving next year back in 2014?

[GuitarStv]

Elon has said "next year" for each of the last ten years.

At some point, you've got to stop believing the boy who cries wolf.

Tesla has certainly missed a lot of Musk predicted timelines, but the earliest Musk quote I could find was one from 2016 saying Tesla's would be able to drive better than humans in 2-3 years (so 2019). But I certainly could have missed something. Where are you seeing he was promising full self driving next year back in 2014?

There was a youtube video of Musk promising full self driving in 2014, but it appears to have been taken down.

Incidentally, Musk has argued in court that early video of him promising self driving is deepfaked - https://jalopnik.com/elon-musks-statements-on-teslas-self-driving-capabiliti-1850386071

[ChpBstrd]

Elon has said "next year" for each of the last ten years.

At some point, you've got to stop believing the boy who cries wolf.

Tesla has certainly missed a lot of Musk predicted timelines, but the earliest Musk quote I could find was one from 2016 saying Tesla's would be able to drive better than humans in 2-3 years (so 2019). But I certainly could have missed something. Where are you seeing he was promising full self driving next year back in 2014?

There was a youtube video of Musk promising full self driving in 2014, but it appears to have been taken down.

Incidentally, Musk has argued in court that early video of him promising self driving is deepfaked - https://jalopnik.com/elon-musks-statements-on-teslas-self-driving-capabiliti-1850386071

Such is the risk of investing based on social media posts instead of fundamentals. Expect to see more of this.

[Tigerpine]

Here's a slide show showing Musk's promises for self driving cars.
https://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-tesla-self-driving-cars-anniversary-autopilot-1850432357

[DarkandStormy]

Elon has said "next year" for each of the last ten years.

At some point, you've got to stop believing the boy who cries wolf.

Tesla has certainly missed a lot of Musk predicted timelines, but the earliest Musk quote I could find was one from 2016 saying Tesla's would be able to drive better than humans in 2-3 years (so 2019). But I certainly could have missed something. Where are you seeing he was promising full self driving next year back in 2014?

Why do you think we're "close?"

https://www.theverge.com/2014/10/2/6894875/elon-musk-says-next-years-tesla-cars-will-be-able-to-self-drive-90-percent-of-the-time

[FINate]

Q4 earnings have been described as a "train wreck" which was reflected yesterday in a 12% drop. Short-term movements shouldn't be an issue for long-term investors. But I'm wondering if more substantial issues over the past several weeks fundamentally change investing theses outline elsewhere on this thread.

So, questions for the TSLA faithful here:

As a stock holder, does it concern you that Musk is essentially violating his fiduciary duty as CEO by threatening to move AI/robotics to another company he owns and operates? Do you view this as a conflict of interest?

If the board gives Musk an additional 12% stake in TSLA this will dilute your shares. What are your thoughts on this, is it something you support to retain Musk?

If the board doesn't give Musk what he wants, it sounds like he will likely stop investing in areas that have been used to justify the unusually high valuation. He may even walk. How would this change your investing thesis?

On the earnings call Musk said Tesla is between two growth curves. In other words, they're on the downward slope of the previous growth curve, and not yet on the upward slope of the next curve, which isn't expect to start until at least mid-2025. But Musk himself admitted that his timelines are usually optimistic, so it could be 2026 or even 2027. What are your projections for future growth at this point?

EV demand has moderated. It's still growing, but growth is slowing. Rather than being supply constrained (as proposed earlier in the thread), EVs are now demand constrained. Do you view this as a temporary blip, or a longer term trend going forward?

Operating margins decreased to 8.2% which is in line with legacy automakers. Do you expect margins to improve in the quarters ahead?

Finally, has any of this motivated you to reduce your holdings, or do you view it as a buying opportunity?

[EchoStache]

I think the next phase of strong growth for Tesla hinges on their next gen car.  Seems like this could easily be a couple years until production ramps but if they are able to produce a profitable model for $25-$30k(before incentives) while they continue to make massive progress on charging infrastructure, it seems as though they should sell every car they can make and will be production constrained for many years.

[FINate]

I think the next phase of strong growth for Tesla hinges on their next gen car.  Seems like this could easily be a couple years until production ramps but if they are able to produce a profitable model for $25-$30k(before incentives) while they continue to make massive progress on charging infrastructure, it seems as though they should sell every car they can make and will be production constrained for many years.

I'd love to see more $25k EVs, something with decent range preferably with physical buttons and no touch screens. I agree, would sell well.

Care to provide some estimates? What would be the margins on such a vehicle? Volume? When do you foresee production ramping up? Is this sufficient to support current TSLA valuation?

[Paper Chaser]

Elon has said "next year" for each of the last ten years.

At some point, you've got to stop believing the boy who cries wolf.

Tesla has certainly missed a lot of Musk predicted timelines, but the earliest Musk quote I could find was one from 2016 saying Tesla's would be able to drive better than humans in 2-3 years (so 2019). But I certainly could have missed something. Where are you seeing he was promising full self driving next year back in 2014?

CNN interview with Musk from 2014:

https://twitter.com/CNNBusiness/status/517738916892270592

[maizefolk]

Thanks Paper Chaser and Tigerpine!

[mistymoney]

For context, $80B/year would be a bit more than 2x the combined worldwide revenues of Uber + Lyft.

One can certainly argue it should be higher or lower than that. But $80B/year (and presumably much higher profit margins than current ride share companies that have to pay drivers) is a respectable -- more than respectable, huge -- number by the standards of companies that operate in the same space currently.

I think that like with many Tesla businesses, the idea of $80b being too low rests on the idea that Robotaxis will replace Lyft/Uber/YellowCab and simultaneously create a new market by being cheaper/easier than owning your own car (or purchasing a car to begin with), so everyone will just take a Robotaxi everywhere and Tesla will be rolling in money.

There's some logic there. A lot of the world doesn't own a car, and most cars sit idle 95% of the time. So a really good robotaxi fleet with some smart dispatching software could theoretically be way more efficient.

I can see this being plausible but probably not in a single decade. There are a lot of people who for whatever reason like to drive/own their own car and probably most folks older than Millennial age will have to have their keyfobs pried from their cold dead hands. .

-W

if FSD does come to pass, it will be very interesting to watch what happens with the robotaxi idea. My M3 latest self parking was a huge fail! i think they have a way to go as yet. :)

I'm very boomer adjacent in age. I'd be delighted not to need a car at all, have one come by appt and not have to deal with a driver. It would be a huge cost savings overall - and while some do love to drive, many are either stressed by it or just don't enjoy it. I'm in between, when traffic is nice with the radio on and the heated seats going along....it's nice! A traffic jam when you are in a hurry with assholes driving badly all around with their road rage bubbling up, not so nice!

My issue with relying permanently on robotaxis would be cleanliness of the interior - aka other peoples kooties. And if they smoked or had heavy perfume or left garbage, I'd be pretty irritated. Stale smoke off their clothes even if they didn't smoke in the car or perfume would give me headaches that lasted long past the ride itself - so a lot to work out ater FSD is a done deal.

Still - seems tech and AI are heading to a critical point of dramatic societal change. It is exciting and scary, and I don't particularly like musk in one of the key roles here....Still hoping tesla cans him soon. or for god's sake shut him the f* up. He is an ugly personality and likes to wave it around.

Why do you think we're close?  Seems like it's just been disaster after disaster lately.

Uber, Google, and others have been working on autonomous driving for over a decade, promising it's close.

Elon has said "next year" for each of the last ten years.

At some point, you've got to stop believing the boy who cries wolf.

I'm not sure what part of my quoted post you are referring to, but I can not piece together why you are quoting what I said to lead in to your post.

[mistymoney]

Elon has said "next year" for each of the last ten years.

At some point, you've got to stop believing the boy who cries wolf.

Tesla has certainly missed a lot of Musk predicted timelines, but the earliest Musk quote I could find was one from 2016 saying Tesla's would be able to drive better than humans in 2-3 years (so 2019). But I certainly could have missed something. Where are you seeing he was promising full self driving next year back in 2014?

Why do you think we're "close?"

https://www.theverge.com/2014/10/2/6894875/elon-musk-says-next-years-tesla-cars-will-be-able-to-self-drive-90-percent-of-the-time

LOL! Now you are quoting someone else, with the same post/question, and I can't see why you are quoting them either!

[maizefolk]

Okay, good. It wasn't just me who was confused why that was an answer to my post which never used the word close, nor talked about how close or far Tesla was from achieving autonomous driving, just trying to figure out what Musk said when.

[AdrianC]

Still - seems tech and AI are heading to a critical point of dramatic societal change. It is exciting and scary, and I don't particularly like musk in one of the key roles here....Still hoping tesla cans him soon. or for god's sake shut him the f* up. He is an ugly personality and likes to wave it around.

Telsa could split into two: Tesla Motors, and Musk's Automation Systems and Solutions.
Current shareholders get shares in both.
Tesla Motors gets valued for what it is: maker of the best electric cars. Musk has no control or leadership position.
Automation Systems and Solutions gets the premium valuation, though Musk will own a huge part of it.

[ChpBstrd]

Tesla stock plummets more than 10% after earnings miss expectations

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/tesla-stock-plummets-after-earnings-miss-expectations/story?id=106677405

Shares are roughly -25% since Musk's acquisition of Twitter in late October 2022, and down almost 40% from the summer of 2022 when Musk might have pledged his shares as collateral. I wonder at what point could these loans get called? Could also explain Musk's behavior trying to obtain more voting power over Tesla.

[waltworks]

My son wanted to know how you could have a character in D&D with high intelligence and low wisdom, “wouldn’t you just learn from your mistakes?”

My response was, “Elon Musk”.

-W

[erp]

My son wanted to know how you could have a character in D&D with high intelligence and low wisdom, “wouldn’t you just learn from your mistakes?”

My response was, “Elon Musk”.

-W

This may be my favorite comment on the forums this year.

[mistymoney]

Shares are roughly -25% since Musk's acquisition of Twitter in late October 2022, and down almost 40% from the summer of 2022 when Musk might have pledged his shares as collateral. I wonder at what point could these loans get called? Could also explain Musk's behavior trying to obtain more voting power over Tesla.

I'm not sure what the terms on those loans are, or if/how much he would be inconvienced if had to pay it off all at once given his net worth.

but I think you give musk too much credit on this! he is just a megalomaniac and being one of the 10 richest in the world isn't enough for him.....he is trying to make sure he is the richest and stays richest and no one can even catch up....that is his goal.

Given his crazy posting history on twitter - I worry that just being the riches isn't going to be enough for him, that he is going to seek out other forms of power as well. 

I do think this was a kick to tesla investors as I don't see how this is accomplished without diluting the value of existing shares. I hope the board will take some control in this, but I fear they are just a bunch of toadies...

[ChpBstrd]

Shares are roughly -25% since Musk's acquisition of Twitter in late October 2022, and down almost 40% from the summer of 2022 when Musk might have pledged his shares as collateral. I wonder at what point could these loans get called? Could also explain Musk's behavior trying to obtain more voting power over Tesla.

I'm not sure what the terms on those loans are, or if/how much he would be inconvienced if had to pay it off all at once given his net worth.

but I think you give musk too much credit on this! he is just a megalomaniac and being one of the 10 richest in the world isn't enough for him.....he is trying to make sure he is the richest and stays richest and no one can even catch up....that is his goal.

Given his crazy posting history on twitter - I worry that just being the riches isn't going to be enough for him, that he is going to seek out other forms of power as well. 

I do think this was a kick to tesla investors as I don't see how this is accomplished without diluting the value of existing shares. I hope the board will take some control in this, but I fear they are just a bunch of toadies...

True. My first thought was what leverage would EM have over even a moderately independent board? He's not an AI engineer genius; he's a venture capitalist. And Tesla is well past the VC stage. What would stop them from saying "Thanks but no thanks, and if you don't like it, sell out." But Musk can't sell out and use his proceeds to start an AI bandwagon company, because his shares are busy working as loan collateral for his vanity project of turning Twitter into 4-Chan, 8-Chan, Telegram, Rumble, or Truth Social.

I'd hope TSLA shareholders would revolt against any attempt to sell them down the river this way, but regarding toadies... one never knows.

[NorCal]

Shares are roughly -25% since Musk's acquisition of Twitter in late October 2022, and down almost 40% from the summer of 2022 when Musk might have pledged his shares as collateral. I wonder at what point could these loans get called? Could also explain Musk's behavior trying to obtain more voting power over Tesla.

I'm not sure what the terms on those loans are, or if/how much he would be inconvienced if had to pay it off all at once given his net worth.

but I think you give musk too much credit on this! he is just a megalomaniac and being one of the 10 richest in the world isn't enough for him.....he is trying to make sure he is the richest and stays richest and no one can even catch up....that is his goal.

Given his crazy posting history on twitter - I worry that just being the riches isn't going to be enough for him, that he is going to seek out other forms of power as well. 

I do think this was a kick to tesla investors as I don't see how this is accomplished without diluting the value of existing shares. I hope the board will take some control in this, but I fear they are just a bunch of toadies...

True. My first thought was what leverage would EM have over even a moderately independent board? He's not an AI engineer genius; he's a venture capitalist. And Tesla is well past the VC stage. What would stop them from saying "Thanks but no thanks, and if you don't like it, sell out." But Musk can't sell out and use his proceeds to start an AI bandwagon company, because his shares are busy working as loan collateral for his vanity project of turning Twitter into 4-Chan, 8-Chan, Telegram, Rumble, or Truth Social.

I'd hope TSLA shareholders would revolt against any attempt to sell them down the river this way, but regarding toadies... one never knows.

I admit I haven't followed it closely or looked into the details.  But I've heard from a few people I trust with such things that Tesla is kind of a governance nightmare.  I don't believe the board is considered to be very independent.

A quick glance at the website shows me that Elon's brother is on the board, as well as JB Straubel (who's company has a close business relationship with Tesla). 

I personally think a truly independent board would have fired Musk a few years back.  And then they would have sued him for fraud. 

It's not like it's an accident Elon started promising clearly un-achievable engineering miracles immediately after he convinced the board to give him an unprecedented compensation package based solely on Tesla's market-cap.  He pumped the stock up with bullshit products and unachievable timelines to enrich himself at shareholders expense.  This is called fraud. 

[MustacheAndaHalf]

TSLA's 5-year performance is 56%/year.  Investors who bought 5 years ago would have 9x their starting investment.  Shareholders eager for high returns aren't going to fire a CEO with performance like that, nor begrudge him performance bonuses.
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnas/tsla/trailing-returns


"People with megalomania have delusional fantasies that they are more relevant (important) or powerful than they truly are."
https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megalomania

He's one of the richest people in the world, so "powerful" doesn't seem like a delusion. The man who revolutionized the car and rocket industries is important - that's not a delusion.  A thread about Tesla seems an odd place to make the case that Elon Musk isn't important.

[FINate]

Musk's $56B comp package voided by Delaware court. Is this good, bad, neutral for TSLA? Shares down after hours, interested to see what happens tomorrow.

This seems like it could greatly complicate Elon's push for more control of Tesla. Does the board give in to his demands and risk another lawsuit? Does Elon walk and/or effectively kill AI/robotics at Tesla? He risks becoming a paper tiger if he doesn't follow through... that's the risk of going public with an ultimatum. Very messy, but extremely fascinating.

[GuitarStv]

Weird.  Why would shares drop when shareholders get a court protecting their investment?

[FINate]

Right? I think the fear is that Musk will decrease involvement in Tesla. Could be good for TSLA long-term, but Musk's cult following, which includes many retail investors, would see it as a negative.

The rejected 2018 comp plan was for 12 tranches of 1% stake in TSLA, so 12% total. Which is identical to Musk's demands for his next comp package.

I'm not an attorney, but my understanding is that the 2018 plan was voided for two reasons: 1) Musk had a controlling interest in Tesla at the time, i.e. he was self-dealing, and under Delaware corp law this triggers a higher standard where the board must prove the comp is reasonable, which they failed to do at trial. 2) Proxy statements provided to stockholders materially misrepresented the package, therefore the vote approving was invalid.

Legally Musk must be fairly compensated, so the board needs to approve a replacement comp plan. But they bear the burden of proof to show this is reasonable and fairly negotiated, rather than Musk negotiating against himself. A truly independent committee representing the interests of shareholders is unlikely to arrive anywhere near the same comp level.

Therefore, Elon getting another 12% of TSLA as part of his next comp package, worth a hell of a lot more now than in 2018, is very unlikely. And everyone knows Elon is the kind of guy that would cut off his nose to spite his face.

[bacchi]

Right? I think the fear is that Musk will decrease involvement in Tesla. Could be good for TSLA long-term, but Musk's cult following, which includes many retail investors, would see it as a negative.

Exactly. Tesla losing Musk is scary to both the stan HODLers, who will sell shares only when Tesla controls 25% of the world's car market, and those who realize that the stock value is supported by the stans. If Tesla loses Musk, the dream is over and the stans sell.

Therefore, Elon getting another 12% of TSLA as part of his next comp package, worth a hell of a lot more now than in 2018, is very unlikely. And everyone knows Elon is the kind of guy that would cut off his nose to spite his face.

Agreed. If $55B is "unfathomable," giving him $72B in options isn't gonna happen. Of course, the board is still beholden so we might see the same lawsuit next year.