Ukraine

[pecunia]

Some of these previous comments made a lot of sense. 

So Trump was a better Democrat than the Democrats.

Maybe so, a lot of Union folk went over to the Republicans because many Democrats would do little more than smile and expect their votes.  Trump talked about getting the jobs back from overseas more than the Democrats did.  I think that made a positive impression on many.

I guess this is why there are kind of two Republican parties.  There's the old anti labor - super pro defense - no taxes-  - libertarian - type rich white guys.  Then there are the MAGAites who seem to have no real beliefs or ideology other than America First and the wall to keep fruit pickers out.  If you vote for them it's like a choice of two parties with one vote. 

Whether you believe the totals or not, Putin has killed a lot of people on his quest to kill imaginary Nazis.

01.01.2024

    Tanks — 5983 (+6)
    Armored fighting vehicle — 11087 (+17)
    Artillery systems — 8482 (+18)
    MLRS — 943
    Anti-aircraft warfare — 625 (+2)
    Planes — 329
    Helicopters — 324
    UAV — 6657 (+66)
    Cruise missiles — 1709
    Ships (boats) — 23
    Submarines — 1
    Cars and cisterns — 11330 (+38)
    Special equipment — 1277 (+9)
    Military personnel — aprx. 360010 people (+780)

[sixwings]

Some of these previous comments made a lot of sense. 

So Trump was a better Democrat than the Democrats.

Maybe so, a lot of Union folk went over to the Republicans because many Democrats would do little more than smile and expect their votes.  Trump talked about getting the jobs back from overseas more than the Democrats did.  I think that made a positive impression on many.

I guess this is why there are kind of two Republican parties.  There's the old anti labor - super pro defense - no taxes-  - libertarian - type rich white guys.  Then there are the MAGAites who seem to have no real beliefs or ideology other than America First and the wall to keep fruit pickers out.  If you vote for them it's like a choice of two parties with one vote. 

Whether you believe the totals or not, Putin has killed a lot of people on his quest to kill imaginary Nazis.

01.01.2024

    Tanks — 5983 (+6)
    Armored fighting vehicle — 11087 (+17)
    Artillery systems — 8482 (+18)
    MLRS — 943
    Anti-aircraft warfare — 625 (+2)
    Planes — 329
    Helicopters — 324
    UAV — 6657 (+66)
    Cruise missiles — 1709
    Ships (boats) — 23
    Submarines — 1
    Cars and cisterns — 11330 (+38)
    Special equipment — 1277 (+9)
    Military personnel — aprx. 360010 people (+780)

No, Trump is just better at pretending to a democrat than any republican has ever done. Trump is not and has never been union friendly, he's just a good liar and con-man. Trump appointed hundreds of incredibly conservative, anti-worker judges which led to erosion of union protections during his administration.  He also completely shit all over the NLRB who undermined workers at every opportunity. If you're appointing conservatives to the court and places like the NLRB, you are appointing business first people, not pro-workers. Anyone who thinks otherwise is being completely conned, the record is clear and transparent for anyone who can read.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/25/trump-united-auto-workers-strike
https://apnews.com/article/labor-union-auto-workers-trump-strike-dfcb805fd4e749b13aaf827e1463da73
https://cwa-union.org/trumps-anti-worker-record

Biden has been far better for workers, but he's quite hamstrung by conservative courts and SC. You think Gorsuch and ACB are going to suddenly become pro-worker? Or Clarence Thomas billionaire friends are suddenly going to ask him to rule in favor of their employees? Neither do I. He just sucks as using the bully pulpit to tell you this.

And the point about the trade war is awful, the tariffs were NOT good for America or manufacturing. Companies didn't bring jobs back to America, they just raised prices to pay for the tariffs, which is what was expected. Research is pretty clear and has concluded that Trumps tariffs have been one of the the largest tax increases in decades, who do you think is paying this regressive tax? (Hint: It's not Clarence Thomas and his billionaire friends). Biden is in a very difficult position, he literally can't repeal tariffs. Other countries implemented retaliatory tariffs, if Biden drops the US tariffs there's no guarantee the other countries will do the same and countries have shown an unwillingness to bargain with the USA in this arena since Trump pulled out of the TPP and has been continuing to threaten more tariffs under a second Trump administration. Like if Biden drops the China tariffs you think China is going to respond in kind to that? Especially if there's a pretty good chance Trump gets in and imposes more tariffs? That's an opportunity for them to make their products more competitive in the USA and decrease the competitiveness of USA products in their markets. The USA is literally the most fucked they've been in many decades over this.

https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/tariffs-trump-trade-war/
https://taxfoundation.org/blog/donald-trump-10-percent-tariff/

Trump is NOT worker friendly he's just a con man who fucked workers every chance he got while pretending he was on their side. He's a wolf in sheeps clothing and it's not even that hard to see. However that's all I'll say on this matter since this thread is about Ukraine and not about Trumps lies.

[GuitarStv]

When he's elected president again we'll have many conversations about this.

[Radagast]

There is actually zero overlap between sixwings venn diagram of observations and my venn diagram of observations. They touch at the trade war, but they don't share any area.

[rocketpj]

When he's elected president again we'll have many conversations about this.

Bite your tongue.  Sheesh.

[Travis]

A Russian A-50 airborne radar plane was shot down over the Sea of Azov yesterday and an IL-22 command and control plane was damaged and returned to base with casualties. Possibly another Patriot ambush, but hard to say. It was at nearly max range for any Ukrainian air defense systems.


https://vxtwitter.com/olga_pp98/status/1746812249216278721

[LennStar]

Would be funny if it were friendly fire again.

Unfortunately the Ukrainian Youtube guy closed and the press has been aawfully quite so I can't give any useful update even though I tried (well, after I was no longer sick with the after-Christmas illness lol).

[zolotiyeruki]

Ukraine is claiming they did it, although the method isn't yet clear.  This is a bigger win than it might initially appear.  Russia only has about 10 of the A-50's, of which maybe half are operational.  It's an asset that is in high demand, and losing it will not only hurt Russia's ability to detect Ukrainian aircraft and missiles, but also impact Russia's reconnaissance capabilities. 

What's interesting about this event is that Ukraine has been very careful about keeping the Patriot radars a long way from the front, yet Patriot missiles are the only missiles Ukraine has which can hit that far away.  It's leading to speculation that Ukraine somehow built a frankenstein-esque SAM system with the (older, less-capable) S-300 radar and long-range missiles from a Patriot battery.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

The unverified claim I saw on Twitter was that no AWACS aircraft has been shot down before now.  They are too valuable to use near the front; are guarded; and can redirect incoming fire to other targets.

An economist on Twitter claimed sanctions against Russia are being evaded using many of its neighbors as proxies - and Europe is turning a blind eye. I looked for and found this graph of European exports to Kyrgyzstan. Imports from Europe quadrupled after Russia invaded Ukraine.  My base assumption from this graph is sanctions being evaded.
https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/exports/kyrgyzstan

[Michael in ABQ]

The unverified claim I saw on Twitter was that no AWACS aircraft has been shot down before now.  They are too valuable to use near the front; are guarded; and can redirect incoming fire to other targets.

An economist on Twitter claimed sanctions against Russia are being evaded using many of its neighbors as proxies - and Europe is turning a blind eye. I looked for and found this graph of European exports to Kyrgyzstan. Imports from Europe quadrupled after Russia invaded Ukraine.  My base assumption from this graph is sanctions being evaded.
https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/exports/kyrgyzstan

Basically all the oil Russia sold to Europe is now being sold to India - quite openly. There is definitely some Russian exports gets washed through third countries as well. Not just oil and gas but minerals and other exports. I saw the graphic somewhere recently but I can't find it now.

Here's a quote from a geopolitics website I subscribe to regarding Europe replacing Russian oil and gas with new suppliers from Norway, the US, and others.

Between the second quarter of 2022 and 2023, the EU significantly reduced its imports of Russian petroleum, to 2.7 percent from 15.9 percent. This reduction was mostly compensated by increased imports from Norway, Kazakhstan, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. A similar shift is happening with natural gas. Norway and the U.S. have become the main new sources, providing natural gas and liquefied natural gas, respectively.

[Just Joe]

The unverified claim I saw on Twitter was that no AWACS aircraft has been shot down before now.  They are too valuable to use near the front; are guarded; and can redirect incoming fire to other targets.

An economist on Twitter claimed sanctions against Russia are being evaded using many of its neighbors as proxies - and Europe is turning a blind eye. I looked for and found this graph of European exports to Kyrgyzstan. Imports from Europe quadrupled after Russia invaded Ukraine.  My base assumption from this graph is sanctions being evaded.
https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/exports/kyrgyzstan

Does Europe not worry Russia is coming for them next? Or perhaps only the countries bordering Russia?

[FIPurpose]

The unverified claim I saw on Twitter was that no AWACS aircraft has been shot down before now.  They are too valuable to use near the front; are guarded; and can redirect incoming fire to other targets.

An economist on Twitter claimed sanctions against Russia are being evaded using many of its neighbors as proxies - and Europe is turning a blind eye. I looked for and found this graph of European exports to Kyrgyzstan. Imports from Europe quadrupled after Russia invaded Ukraine.  My base assumption from this graph is sanctions being evaded.
https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/exports/kyrgyzstan

Does Europe not worry Russia is coming for them next? Or perhaps only the countries bordering Russia?

I think even if Russia does manage to claim the Donbas, there is still a whole Ukraine left between them and Russia. Nothing to say that it would also take Russia a full 5 years at least to ramp up their equipment and for new blood to age into military age.

[pecunia]

The unverified claim I saw on Twitter was that no AWACS aircraft has been shot down before now.  They are too valuable to use near the front; are guarded; and can redirect incoming fire to other targets.

An economist on Twitter claimed sanctions against Russia are being evaded using many of its neighbors as proxies - and Europe is turning a blind eye. I looked for and found this graph of European exports to Kyrgyzstan. Imports from Europe quadrupled after Russia invaded Ukraine.  My base assumption from this graph is sanctions being evaded.
https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/exports/kyrgyzstan

Does Europe not worry Russia is coming for them next? Or perhaps only the countries bordering Russia?

I think even if Russia does manage to claim the Donbas, there is still a whole Ukraine left between them and Russia. Nothing to say that it would also take Russia a full 5 years at least to ramp up their equipment and for new blood to age into military age.

I kind of wonder.  Putin works really hard to "sell" the "Special Military Operation" to the public now.  People aren't dumb.  They may have lost their brother, Uncle or father in this Russian foreign adventure.  Some of the Russians are experiencing a very cold Winter without heat.  It didn't happen until many men either fled the country or were sent to the "Special Military Operation."  These kinds of things don't leave good feelings in people.  These kind of things leave bad memories.

Would Putin's successor be able to "sell" another war in 5 years?  This assumes that the present situation has come to some sort of a stoppage.  I'm guessing a lot of these kids that would be sent to this war will also see veterans walking around without limbs and with some sort of PTSD in the next 5 years.

[Michael in ABQ]

The unverified claim I saw on Twitter was that no AWACS aircraft has been shot down before now.  They are too valuable to use near the front; are guarded; and can redirect incoming fire to other targets.

An economist on Twitter claimed sanctions against Russia are being evaded using many of its neighbors as proxies - and Europe is turning a blind eye. I looked for and found this graph of European exports to Kyrgyzstan. Imports from Europe quadrupled after Russia invaded Ukraine.  My base assumption from this graph is sanctions being evaded.
https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/exports/kyrgyzstan

Does Europe not worry Russia is coming for them next? Or perhaps only the countries bordering Russia?

Governments don't buy goods and services, businesses and people do. They are rational actors and if you can get a barrel of oil from Kyrgyzstan for $60 when the market price is $80 there are plenty of people who will do so - even if they know full well it's really coming from Russia. The governments in Europe may try to stop that, but when you have a person with an opportunity to make millions of dollars vs. a bureaucrat enforcing a rule, who do you think is going to try harder and ultimately win. Same thing with smuggling drugs or any other illegal product.

It only takes a relative handful of unscrupulous actors who know they can make a lot of money by evading sanctions (legally or illegally).

[ChpBstrd]

The unverified claim I saw on Twitter was that no AWACS aircraft has been shot down before now.  They are too valuable to use near the front; are guarded; and can redirect incoming fire to other targets.

An economist on Twitter claimed sanctions against Russia are being evaded using many of its neighbors as proxies - and Europe is turning a blind eye. I looked for and found this graph of European exports to Kyrgyzstan. Imports from Europe quadrupled after Russia invaded Ukraine.  My base assumption from this graph is sanctions being evaded.
https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/exports/kyrgyzstan

Does Europe not worry Russia is coming for them next? Or perhaps only the countries bordering Russia?

Apparently not. The Ukrainians bought Europe a couple of years to prepare, yet you don't exactly see them doing much with the warning.

Denial can overcome alarm, and if the European attention span is anything like Americans', they lack a concept of a typical war lasting 5-10 years and expected things to be over with months ago.

I suspect reports of the Russian military's demise are exaggerated, and Europe is still at risk of being overrun. Behind the NATO front lines, Europe is softer and less defended than ever. Even worse, this dictator has practically unlimited access to materials and hydrocarbon energy, and cannot be defeated, only held at bay, due to possessing nukes. Resource-poor Europe has everything stacked against it.

Furthermore, neither Americans nor Europeans seem to grasp the geopolitical reality of a new Axis of authoritarianism including Belarus, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China. The shipping attacks in the Red Sea are part of the same war the Ukrainians are fighting which is part of the same war as the Taiwanese may be fighting soon.

European weakness is provocative.

[Travis]

The unverified claim I saw on Twitter was that no AWACS aircraft has been shot down before now.  They are too valuable to use near the front; are guarded; and can redirect incoming fire to other targets.

An economist on Twitter claimed sanctions against Russia are being evaded using many of its neighbors as proxies - and Europe is turning a blind eye. I looked for and found this graph of European exports to Kyrgyzstan. Imports from Europe quadrupled after Russia invaded Ukraine.  My base assumption from this graph is sanctions being evaded.
https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/exports/kyrgyzstan

Does Europe not worry Russia is coming for them next? Or perhaps only the countries bordering Russia?

Governments don't buy goods and services, businesses and people do. They are rational actors and if you can get a barrel of oil from Kyrgyzstan for $60 when the market price is $80 there are plenty of people who will do so - even if they know full well it's really coming from Russia. The governments in Europe may try to stop that, but when you have a person with an opportunity to make millions of dollars vs. a bureaucrat enforcing a rule, who do you think is going to try harder and ultimately win. Same thing with smuggling drugs or any other illegal product.

It only takes a relative handful of unscrupulous actors who know they can make a lot of money by evading sanctions (legally or illegally).

It's technically evading sanctions, but it also still takes money out of Russia's pocket. They've been selling crude to India at a steep discount since the war started and India has been selling refined products from it which also denies Russia income from that product. Russia has had to make tough choices the last few months on how much oil to keep for themselves or export because its pretty much the only money coming in lately.

[LennStar]

Yes, I read some time ago it's actually (inofficially) wanted that Russia sells it oil to India for example.

It still "costs" them a lot (If you produce at 40 and sell at 60 instead of 80, that's only half profit) while keeping the oil prices low. Somehow a lot of people start to get angry at the government if oil prices rise, I wonder why...

[MustacheAndaHalf]

The unverified claim I saw on Twitter was that no AWACS aircraft has been shot down before now.  They are too valuable to use near the front; are guarded; and can redirect incoming fire to other targets.

An economist on Twitter claimed sanctions against Russia are being evaded using many of its neighbors as proxies - and Europe is turning a blind eye. I looked for and found this graph of European exports to Kyrgyzstan. Imports from Europe quadrupled after Russia invaded Ukraine.  My base assumption from this graph is sanctions being evaded.
https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/exports/kyrgyzstan

Does Europe not worry Russia is coming for them next? Or perhaps only the countries bordering Russia?

Governments don't buy goods and services, businesses and people do. They are rational actors and if you can get a barrel of oil from Kyrgyzstan for $60 when the market price is $80 there are plenty of people who will do so - even if they know full well it's really coming from Russia. The governments in Europe may try to stop that, but when you have a person with an opportunity to make millions of dollars vs. a bureaucrat enforcing a rule, who do you think is going to try harder and ultimately win. Same thing with smuggling drugs or any other illegal product.

It only takes a relative handful of unscrupulous actors who know they can make a lot of money by evading sanctions (legally or illegally).

The sanctions could have deprived Russia of billions in both exports and imports.  Putin already plays shell games with money stashed abroad through a network of oligarchs / friends.  He knows how to hide transactions, and it is worth billions for him to succeed.

I'm surprised Europe is making it easy.  I would expect extending sanctions to proxy countries, or limiting exports to 2020 levels.  It takes very little research to discover this problem, so I'm also surprised over the lack of awareness among European leaders.

I believe Russia's economy has already recovered, which I haven't verified.  I could find that in a few minutes... and yet Europe's leaders don't seem to have even done that.  I wonder how, in theory, they obtain new information and start new sanctions.  Currently, that process seems broken.

[LennStar]

I believe Russia's economy has already recovered, which I haven't verified.  I could find that in a few minutes...

if you believe the numbers from the Russian government (which have been reduced by a lot, which has nothing to do with any problems, I am sure) and ignore the huge stimulus that the war spending has done (which cannot go on for long, maybe 2-3 years until all reserves are dry).

[pecunia]

I believe Russia's economy has already recovered, which I haven't verified.  I could find that in a few minutes...

if you believe the numbers from the Russian government (which have been reduced by a lot, which has nothing to do with any problems, I am sure) and ignore the huge stimulus that the war spending has done (which cannot go on for long, maybe 2-3 years until all reserves are dry).

When I see the pictures of the pipes broken in so many of these communist buildings, I can't think the economy is going well.  I guess if you ran the numbers in the ghetto of all the drug sales, you could say things are going great.  Bean counters look at numbers and not the underlying reality sometimes.  I think Russia has been taken to the cleaners.  The entire country can be compared to these companies that have had hostile takeovers.

When I was young and Christmas rolled around two big catalogs appeared.  One was Montgomery Wards and the other was Sears.  I didn't live in a highly populated area so a lot of stuff was mail order.   Those catalogs were called Wish books. Now Sears was this huge enterprise.  It fell into the clutches of some financial "genius"who financially stripped it to its bones.

More and more I hear of Russia using the stuff made by the USSR a generation ago.  The world has sent billions and billions of dollars into that country.  The people still live in these old Commie Block apartments.  Apparently, there has been little infrastructure added outside the two major cities of Moscow and St Petersburg.  They still make do with what Stalin built with slave labor.

The numbers may have looked good for Sears as the assets were sold off to make the new owners look rich, but it wasn't healthy or the long term.  Sears could have been Amazon instead of being stripped.

So it is with Russia.  The guys in charge are like corporate bandits.  They can make the financial numbers look good to the world.  You can lie and cheat with statistics.  The reality may be seen on the streets.  I guess they sell more Vodka in Russia these days and I don't think they are celebrating.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

The past two posts are taking part of what I said out of context :

I believe Russia's economy has already recovered, which I haven't verified.  I could find that in a few minutes... and yet Europe's leaders don't seem to have even done that.  I wonder how, in theory, they obtain new information and start new sanctions.  Currently, that process seems broken.

I focused on evidence sanctions were broken.  If Russia claims their economy is growing, not shrinking, then sanctions might not working.  Europe should investigate if that's true or not.

MOSCOW, Dec 13 (Reuters) - Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the third quarter was confirmed on Wednesday at 5.5% compared with the same period last year, when it shrunk 3.5%, the state statistics service Rosstat said.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russias-q3-gdp-growth-confirmed-55-rosstat-2023-12-13/

Setting aside trusting Russian state agencies, shouldn't this claim spur Europe to investigate if Russia's economy is still suffering under sanctions?  It's not isolated, either - the neighboring country's much higher imports also suggest sanctions evasion.

[Michael in ABQ]

The unverified claim I saw on Twitter was that no AWACS aircraft has been shot down before now.  They are too valuable to use near the front; are guarded; and can redirect incoming fire to other targets.

An economist on Twitter claimed sanctions against Russia are being evaded using many of its neighbors as proxies - and Europe is turning a blind eye. I looked for and found this graph of European exports to Kyrgyzstan. Imports from Europe quadrupled after Russia invaded Ukraine.  My base assumption from this graph is sanctions being evaded.
https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/exports/kyrgyzstan

Does Europe not worry Russia is coming for them next? Or perhaps only the countries bordering Russia?

Governments don't buy goods and services, businesses and people do. They are rational actors and if you can get a barrel of oil from Kyrgyzstan for $60 when the market price is $80 there are plenty of people who will do so - even if they know full well it's really coming from Russia. The governments in Europe may try to stop that, but when you have a person with an opportunity to make millions of dollars vs. a bureaucrat enforcing a rule, who do you think is going to try harder and ultimately win. Same thing with smuggling drugs or any other illegal product.

It only takes a relative handful of unscrupulous actors who know they can make a lot of money by evading sanctions (legally or illegally).

The sanctions could have deprived Russia of billions in both exports and imports.  Putin already plays shell games with money stashed abroad through a network of oligarchs / friends.  He knows how to hide transactions, and it is worth billions for him to succeed.

I'm surprised Europe is making it easy.  I would expect extending sanctions to proxy countries, or limiting exports to 2020 levels.  It takes very little research to discover this problem, so I'm also surprised over the lack of awareness among European leaders.

I believe Russia's economy has already recovered, which I haven't verified.  I could find that in a few minutes... and yet Europe's leaders don't seem to have even done that.  I wonder how, in theory, they obtain new information and start new sanctions.  Currently, that process seems broken.

It's a cat and mouse game and the people who stand to make a lot of money have far higher incentives than the governments and government agents trying to stop them.

There have been sanctions on Iran and North Korea for years, and Iraq before that. All of them leaked like a sieve because actually enforcing them ultimately means using force to seize ships, trucks, people, etc. Most countries are not willing to go to war to stop a ship full of iron ore, or coal, or oil.

[reeshau]

The company I used to work had their EU HQ in Luxembourg.  Around 2016, I was talking with our logistics guys there.  They said they shipped products as far West as Portugal,and as far East as Russia.  They are about equal distance from the Luxembourg location.  However, the shipping rates to Russia were twice that to Portugal.  Why?  Because the trucks all returned empty, so you had to pay for the round trip.  There were no finished goods leaving Russia.  Their exports are all commodities (except for military hardware).

[Posthumane]

The goal of sanctions is to hurt the target country as a consequence of their actions, and to stop the flow of goods that may be helping their military directly. Apart from the fact that these sanctions are very difficult to fully enforce as already mentioned, the goal of the sanctions is not to cripple the whole economy. Destroying the economy of a large, nuclear armed nation may not have the best outcomes. Germany went to war in the teens because of expansionist goals (like Russia today), but their collapsed economy after the war is what led directly to them going to war again in the 30s.

[dividendman]

The goal of sanctions is to hurt the target country as a consequence of their actions, and to stop the flow of goods that may be helping their military directly. Apart from the fact that these sanctions are very difficult to fully enforce as already mentioned, the goal of the sanctions is not to cripple the whole economy. Destroying the economy of a large, nuclear armed nation may not have the best outcomes. Germany went to war in the teens because of expansionist goals (like Russia today), but their collapsed economy after the war is what led directly to them going to war again in the 30s.

War is also a great way for dictators to stay in power, especially when there is economic hardship at home. This is why I think China will invade Taiwan in the next few years.

[Sibley]

The goal of sanctions is to hurt the target country as a consequence of their actions, and to stop the flow of goods that may be helping their military directly. Apart from the fact that these sanctions are very difficult to fully enforce as already mentioned, the goal of the sanctions is not to cripple the whole economy. Destroying the economy of a large, nuclear armed nation may not have the best outcomes. Germany went to war in the teens because of expansionist goals (like Russia today), but their collapsed economy after the war is what led directly to them going to war again in the 30s.

War is also a great way for dictators to stay in power, especially when there is economic hardship at home. This is why I think China will invade Taiwan in the next few years.

From the perspective of "history repeats", China is obviously going to invade Taiwan. Also from the perspective of "history repeats", its not actually going to have any significant or long lasting benefits for anyone, China included. But that won't stop China.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

The goal of sanctions is to hurt the target country as a consequence of their actions, and to stop the flow of goods that may be helping their military directly. Apart from the fact that these sanctions are very difficult to fully enforce as already mentioned, the goal of the sanctions is not to cripple the whole economy. Destroying the economy of a large, nuclear armed nation may not have the best outcomes. Germany went to war in the teens because of expansionist goals (like Russia today), but their collapsed economy after the war is what led directly to them going to war again in the 30s.

Did anyone besides you bring up "cripple the whole economy"?
Are you emphasizing not doing something that only you brought up?

[simonsez]

Germany went to war in the teens because of expansionist goals (like Russia today), but their collapsed economy after the war is what led directly to them going to war again in the 30s.

Germany in 1914 included Alsace-Lorraine and all of historical Prussia including today what's known as Kaliningrad.

I don't doubt they had expansionist goals (every world power at that time did!) but to claim that was their casus belli for WW1 seems a bit strong and totally glosses over the July crisis, the fact German diplomats actually sought neutrality at first, and all the standing alliances.  If anything, it seems like Germany didn't really want to 'help' Austria-Hungary deal with Bosnia/Serbia (as a result of the assassination that nobody in Vienna cared much about) unless Russia and France would stay out of it (which they didn't and then of course the UK joins).

[LennStar]

Every European country around 1900 was very expansive (as was btw. the USA, anyone ever heard of Hawaii?), it was just that with all those treaties etc. around it looked better to do that outside the continent. We Germans were just a tad slow on the run to colonies.

And no, we didn't start WWI. It was an Autrian bighead dying, and WWII was started by an Autrian bighead not dying. History is a bitch, as I like to say.

[pecunia]

The goal of sanctions is to hurt the target country as a consequence of their actions, and to stop the flow of goods that may be helping their military directly. Apart from the fact that these sanctions are very difficult to fully enforce as already mentioned, the goal of the sanctions is not to cripple the whole economy. Destroying the economy of a large, nuclear armed nation may not have the best outcomes. Germany went to war in the teens because of expansionist goals (like Russia today), but their collapsed economy after the war is what led directly to them going to war again in the 30s.

War is also a great way for dictators to stay in power, especially when there is economic hardship at home. This is why I think China will invade Taiwan in the next few years.

From the perspective of "history repeats", China is obviously going to invade Taiwan. Also from the perspective of "history repeats", its not actually going to have any significant or long lasting benefits for anyone, China included. But that won't stop China.

It seems like we saw the effect of Taiwan and microchips during the worst of the Covid period.   Automobile manufacturers, for example, seemed to have problems getting microchips to assemble their cars.  Many microchips are made in Taiwan.

Bicycle enthusiasts may not like high quality bicycles made in Taiwan being no longer available.

Internet says they make the following in Taiwan (Formosa)

semiconductors, petrochemicals, automobile/auto parts, ships, wireless communication equipment, flat panel displays, steel, electronics, plastics, computers

It seems any time one of these dictator countries decides to go on a conquering adventure, it messes up the world's economy.  Maybe, China is a little smarter than Russia.  Maybe, the 22 million people in Taiwan who have been investors in the mainland are better left alone for a bit.  China has time and a lot of other issues to resolve.  They have greatly prospered for 2 generations.  Why mess it up?

[LennStar]

Because those rebels must be told a lesson! The country must unify! Or else Xi would not be a Great Leader!

[ChpBstrd]

Maybe, China is a little smarter than Russia.  Maybe, the 22 million people in Taiwan who have been investors in the mainland are better left alone for a bit.  China has time and a lot of other issues to resolve.  They have greatly prospered for 2 generations.  Why mess it up?

It's a fallacy to assume political leaders rationally pursue prosperity.

Hitler could have simply refused to pay the Versailles Agreement, retaken the Rhine Valley, and stopped right there if prosperity was his only concern. Similarly, Napoleon would have never taken the chance of invading Russia. Mao and Stalin were either irrational or knew their economic programs would starve millions - either way these destructive policies were the winning political moves within their times and systems. Putin's invasion of Ukraine was economic suicide. If anyone thinks Nicolas Maduro or the ruling party in Cuba are primarily interested in economic growth, they are naive.

Sometimes poverty can be a tool to keep dictators in power. It's the commercial classes getting too much economic power which leads to the overthrow of governments - whether dictatorial or democratic.

[reeshau]

It's the lesson from Animal Farm: there always needs to be an "other" to strive against.  That way, you are distracted from the shortcomings and inconsistencies right in front of you.

[Posthumane]

Did anyone besides you bring up "cripple the whole economy"?
Are you emphasizing not doing something that only you brought up?

It was not said directly, but as Travis said, their oil exports are (almost) the only reason they are able to stay afloat. Eliminating their ability to export any oil likely would cripple their economy. European leaders need to be seen doing something to punish Russian aggression at their doorstep (hence the sanctions, amongst other measures), but I also understand why they don't necessarily want to be pouring huge resources into absolute enforcing of those sanctions. A statement like "you attacked my neighbour and I want to make sure that you can't continue to do that and that they can defend themselves" is a lot more defensible than a statement like "you attacked my neighbour so I want to make sure all your people suffer for it."

Germany in 1914 included Alsace-Lorraine and all of historical Prussia including today what's known as Kaliningrad.

I don't doubt they had expansionist goals (every world power at that time did!) but to claim that was their casus belli for WW1 seems a bit strong and totally glosses over the July crisis, the fact German diplomats actually sought neutrality at first, and all the standing alliances.  If anything, it seems like Germany didn't really want to 'help' Austria-Hungary deal with Bosnia/Serbia (as a result of the assassination that nobody in Vienna cared much about) unless Russia and France would stay out of it (which they didn't and then of course the UK joins).

You're right, and my offhand statement about Germany and WWI was sloppy. The point I was trying to make was that a crippled economy didn't prevent future hostilities, and likely helped fuel them.

From the perspective of "history repeats", China is obviously going to invade Taiwan. Also from the perspective of "history repeats", its not actually going to have any significant or long lasting benefits for anyone, China included. But that won't stop China.

For a few years now it's looked to me like China's invasion of Taiwan was inevitable. But recently my opinion on that has softened slightly. It's been pointed out that Xi would be wise to reconsider whether his military has the capability to pull that off with any degree of certainty in light of information that has come out regarding the state of their military.

[Telecaster]

For a few years now it's looked to me like China's invasion of Taiwan was inevitable. But recently my opinion on that has softened slightly. It's been pointed out that Xi would be wise to reconsider whether his military has the capability to pull that off with any degree of certainty in light of information that has come out regarding the state of their military.

As far as I can tell, Xi doesn't want to hear any bad news.   That's why all these time bomb problems keep happening.   They started off as small problems but no one said anything so they become big problems.

I'm far from a China expert, but that seems to be what is going on.   

[LennStar]

For a few years now it's looked to me like China's invasion of Taiwan was inevitable. But recently my opinion on that has softened slightly. It's been pointed out that Xi would be wise to reconsider whether his military has the capability to pull that off with any degree of certainty in light of information that has come out regarding the state of their military.

As far as I can tell, Xi doesn't want to hear any bad news.   That's why all these time bomb problems keep happening.   They started off as small problems but no one said anything so they become big problems.

I'm far from a China expert, but that seems to be what is going on.

That's just your typical dictatorship development. Regardless of what the leader wants, nobody wants to tell him bad stuff. Even if nothing bad happens to you, your advancement might be impaired - and that might mean loss of all privileges, prison or death. And nobdy wants to tell his direct cronies something bad for the similar motivation.
That is why dictoatorships eventually get either overthrown or fall into extreme poverty.

I really really recommend the book in my signature ;)

For Ukraine it looks like it's still the same: Russia wins a few hundred meters here or there every few days for a heavy loss of hardware, while Ukraine continues strikes on supply routes when possible and somehow manages to hold the southern Dnipro beachheads.
Both sides have problems with the winter but I daresay it's worse for the Russians, whose logistics are more strained.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

An important difference between China and Russia (from a year ago):

BEIJING (AP) — China rolled back rules on isolating people with COVID-19 and dropped virus test requirements for some public places Wednesday in a dramatic change to a strategy that confined millions of people to their homes and sparked protests and demands for President Xi Jinping to resign.

https://apnews.com/article/health-business-china-covid-economy-e5559f6062cf052a71ad6ba1ceece693

Mass protests lead President Xi to drop Covid-19 restrictions.  Russia arrested 15,000 protestors in the first two weeks of its war - that seems like Russia's approach to protests.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-war_protests_in_Russia_(2022%E2%80%93present)

[MustacheAndaHalf]

I suspect China wants to fix its economy, which would collapse if it invaded Taiwan.  China brought a very large delegation to the World Economic Forum (in Davos), and emphasized China is open for foreign direct investment.  All major economies except the U.S. had much lower GDP growth last year, China included.  In China, youth unemployment hit 20% before China stopped revealing the numbers (last year sometime?).

A quarter of China's trade is from the United States, Korea, Japan and Australia.  If China attacked Taiwan, that trade vanishes - so do jobs depending on that trade.  How many tens or hundreds of millions would be unemployed?  Can China's leadership risk protests proportional to unemployment?  I think the answer is no, but I could be wrong.

[reeshau]

An important difference between China and Russia (from a year ago):

BEIJING (AP) — China rolled back rules on isolating people with COVID-19 and dropped virus test requirements for some public places Wednesday in a dramatic change to a strategy that confined millions of people to their homes and sparked protests and demands for President Xi Jinping to resign.

https://apnews.com/article/health-business-china-covid-economy-e5559f6062cf052a71ad6ba1ceece693

Mass protests lead President Xi to drop Covid-19 restrictions.  Russia arrested 15,000 protestors in the first two weeks of its war - that seems like Russia's approach to protests.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-war_protests_in_Russia_(2022%E2%80%93present)

China arrests plenty of protesters.  Clever protestors have gotten around laws against protesting specific things by protesting with blank signs.

[PeteD01]

Just one of the ways Russia has already lost the war:


How Russia is Losing Kaliningrad (and why it matters)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yki6pigUbfw

[pecunia]

An important difference between China and Russia (from a year ago):

BEIJING (AP) — China rolled back rules on isolating people with COVID-19 and dropped virus test requirements for some public places Wednesday in a dramatic change to a strategy that confined millions of people to their homes and sparked protests and demands for President Xi Jinping to resign.

https://apnews.com/article/health-business-china-covid-economy-e5559f6062cf052a71ad6ba1ceece693

Mass protests lead President Xi to drop Covid-19 restrictions.  Russia arrested 15,000 protestors in the first two weeks of its war - that seems like Russia's approach to protests.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-war_protests_in_Russia_(2022%E2%80%93present)

China arrests plenty of protesters.  Clever protestors have gotten around laws against protesting specific things by protesting with blank signs.

Russia had that covered long ago.  Comrade Stalin taught the people who rule Russia all the tricks.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-war-invasion-protests-police-arrest-activists-holding-blank-signs-paper-1687603

It kind of reminds me of my long ago school days.  "You didn't say it, but you were going to."  The people in charge of the school knew how we rebel kids thought. 

That point about Chinese manufacturers having to lay off if there is a war is a good one.  Russia, on the other hand, has dipped into it's savings cookie jar to augment oil revenues and maintain near full employment.  Plus they've had essential workers leave or be sent to Ukraine.  All those frozen pipes and firefighting will keep a lot of people busy as well as building replacement munitions.

[LennStar]

I don't know what happened, but it must be HUGE!

Look at that "special equipment" - that mostly means mine field clearer.

[pecunia]

I don't know what happened, but it must be HUGE!

Look at that "special equipment" - that mostly means mine field clearer.

It seems like the huge thing lately is the attack on the gas facility a bit outside of St Petersburg North of Estona.

If Ukraine can continue to damage oil processing, storage and export facilities, can they make a real dent in Russia's oil income?

[LennStar]

I heavily doubt this smoking incident destroyed dozens of mine clearers.

[zolotiyeruki]

51 artillery is a new record, I believe. Something big definitely happened

[LennStar]

Well, today is 59 artillery, 42 APV and 30(!) tanks. But only 4 special equipment.

Either they have run out of mine clearers, are between minefields or the Russians are currently breaking through the defense.

[dignam]

Relatively large Russian equipment losses coupled with a standard amount of soldier losses tells me Ukraine is doing more targeted strikes.  Probably drones.

[LennStar]

Relatively large Russian equipment losses coupled with a standard amount of soldier losses tells me Ukraine is doing more targeted strikes.  Probably drones.

No, since the current offensive started (and winter really hit) we had only one or two days of losses above 1000 (but higher material).
And the Ukrainians are sorely missing arty grenades. If this goes on, Russia might lose another 1000 tanks and 2000 APC, but then they will win because Ukraine has nothing left to stop them.

[dignam]

Relatively large Russian equipment losses coupled with a standard amount of soldier losses tells me Ukraine is doing more targeted strikes.  Probably drones.

No, since the current offensive started (and winter really hit) we had only one or two days of losses above 1000 (but higher material).
And the Ukrainians are sorely missing arty grenades. If this goes on, Russia might lose another 1000 tanks and 2000 APC, but then they will win because Ukraine has nothing left to stop them.

Doesn't it usually follow that with an offensive, especially with tactics used by Russia, that there would be a disproportionately high number of human casualties?

I'm not seeing any evidence of Russian advances along the line.  Unless I'm missing something.

[waltworks]

Open source stuff (ie ISW) generally agree that Russia is VERY slowly, but steadily, advancing in at least a few places.

Given how many times we've predicted "these losses are unsustainable!" and been wrong I'm hesitant to call any of this a win for Ukraine.

Hopefully a border/Ukraine deal can happen ASAP.

-W