A few days ago, a former Russian colonel gave an excellent analysis of the war in Ukraine on Russian TV and some in the west have seen this as an important development as opinions like that are rare in the Russian media.
But they are wrong as this is just an attempt to keep the debate a Russian issue and potentially preparing the propaganda space for a face-saving retreat for the regime.
There is a tradition of self criticism in Marxism/Leninism that has always been used in two quite different ways: to purge dissenters from the party or to introduce issues that either could not be ignored anymore or arose in the minds of others in the upper echelons.
It is basically a gatekeeper strategy that makes any allowed debate one that takes places within the constraints of party orthodoxy, while allowing some, easily discreditable if the need should arise, crazy expert deviation from it. And at the same time, all undesirable debates will be suppressed.
This tradition also pays homage to a particular kind of expert veneration because, after all, Marxism/Leninism is the expert way how to run the world, and there are probably a lot of Russians who get nostalgic with that USSR stuff.
It is not evidence of major dissent but standard procedure in Marxism/Leninism to introduce a subject into public discourse using the perceivedly most neutral entry: an expert in the field.
The Russian TV audience skews older, just like in the US, and they most assuredly are not shocked when something controversial appears on TV, as that was always standard operating procedure to either steer and control the public discourse or at least to lend legitimacy to the propaganda.
Here is how the media sees it - and it´s grotesquely beside the point, but then, they simply do not know any of this.
They are saying that the colonel's statements left his fellow panelists stunned and that opinions like his are banished from the airwaves. As far as I know, the same person gave another excellent analysis weeks before the invasion and predicted the outcome.
Here is the article from Feb 3, Google translate does a decent job:
Predictions of bloodthirsty political scientists
About enthusiastic hawks and hasty cuckoos
"FINDINGS
In general, there will be no Ukrainian blitzkrieg. The statements of some experts such as “The Russian army will defeat most of the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 30-40 minutes”, “Russia is able to defeat Ukraine in 10 minutes in the event of a full-scale war”, “Russia will defeat Ukraine in eight minutes” have no serious grounds.
And finally, the most important thing. An armed conflict with Ukraine is currently fundamentally not in Russia's national interests. Therefore, it is best for some overexcited Russian experts to forget about their hatred fantasies. And in order to prevent further reputational losses, never remember again."
https://nvo.ng.ru/realty/2022-02-03/3_1175_donbass.htmlIt is just like in the old days: a good propaganda operation blends factual analysis and reporting with the right amount of lies - see US extremist media.
And as far as Russian TV goes, the opinions of their pundits are so extreme, calling for using nukes or extermination of Ukrainians etc., that Putin almost looks like a prudent leader. And in this context, the colonel´s analysis might actually be, among other things, reassuring to those who might have developed some doubts - at least one can be assured that these issues are known and considered by dear leader.
So, notwithstanding that the good colonel´s analysis is excellent, the fact that it was aired on TV does not indicate anything but business as usual in the Russian TV propaganda operation.
On a Russian talk show, a retired colonel stuns his colleagues by pointing out that the invasion isn’t going well.
"A military analyst on one of Russian state television’s most popular networks left his fellow panelists in stunned silence on Monday when he said that the conflict in Ukraine was deteriorating for Russia, giving the kind of honest assessment that is virtually banished from the official airwaves."
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/17/world/europe/russian-state-tv-ukraine-invasion.html