Ukraine

[zolotiyeruki]

I would be inclined to believe it, except that wouldn't we expect more wounded? I thought that it was normal to have something like three wounded troops for every one troop killed?
http://www.dupuyinstitute.org/blog/2016/10/27/wounded-to-killed-ratios/

Yeah, the US has very well-developed doctrine for evacuating and treating wounded.  Given Russia's trouble supplying their own troops with food and fuel, it's entirely possible that they don't have much in the way of field medical logistics.

[Sibley]

I don't have a source, but I know I've seen things (don't remember if verified or not) saying that the Russians were killing their wounded. If that's true, then that would skew their killed vs wounded numbers.

[GuitarStv]

I don't have a source, but I know I've seen things (don't remember if verified or not) saying that the Russians were killing their wounded. If that's true, then that would skew their killed vs wounded numbers.

This doesn't pass a smell test for me.

What possible reason would would Russia have to kill it's own wounded troops?  And how would this be carried out?  I'd figure that it's going to be pretty hard to convince people who have been fighting together to put bullets in each other's heads.  Are there special murder troops who go around and execute wounded?

[Michael in ABQ]

I don't have a source, but I know I've seen things (don't remember if verified or not) saying that the Russians were killing their wounded. If that's true, then that would skew their killed vs wounded numbers.

Unless it's through sheer neglect or extremely rare circumstances ("mercy killing" of fatally wounded, etc.) that just doesn't pass the smell test.

It's not like the Russians are worried that if they get captured, they're going to be tortured and executed - ala what would likely happen to any Soldier caught by ISIS, Al-Qaeda, etc. Although some of the comments I've seen from Russian trolls claim that people are being crucified. Which is of course total BS. In this day and age where literally every single person on the battlefield has a camera in their pocket it comes down to "pics or it didn't happen".

[Sibley]

I don't have a source, but I know I've seen things (don't remember if verified or not) saying that the Russians were killing their wounded. If that's true, then that would skew their killed vs wounded numbers.

This doesn't pass a smell test for me.

What possible reason would would Russia have to kill it's own wounded troops?  And how would this be carried out?  I'd figure that it's going to be pretty hard to convince people who have been fighting together to put bullets in each other's heads.  Are there special murder troops who go around and execute wounded?

I don't know, and like I said, I don't have a source. It very easily could be propaganda. I also saw things that said the Russians were killing Ukrainian POWs which is at least slightly more believable.

With all the equipment that the Russians have lost and there's pictures of online, I haven't seen any that are medical related. So they may not have much.

[pecunia]

I don't have a source, but I know I've seen things (don't remember if verified or not) saying that the Russians were killing their wounded. If that's true, then that would skew their killed vs wounded numbers.

Unless it's through sheer neglect or extremely rare circumstances ("mercy killing" of fatally wounded, etc.) that just doesn't pass the smell test.

It's not like the Russians are worried that if they get captured, they're going to be tortured and executed - ala what would likely happen to any Soldier caught by ISIS, Al-Qaeda, etc. Although some of the comments I've seen from Russian trolls claim that people are being crucified. Which is of course total BS. In this day and age where literally every single person on the battlefield has a camera in their pocket it comes down to "pics or it didn't happen".

You are right about the thing about people being crucified.  It is labor intensive, time intensive and resource intensive.  Bullets will be used. 

I do kind of wonder what Putin is doing with the people he is hauling out of Ukraine.  He wants to destroy that country.  He has basically said so.   In the past Stalin used to haul entire populations of people to other parts of that big country.  History repeats itself.  Is Siberia getting new residents?

I also wonder if all those new drones that Congress approved are arriving to help the Ukrainians.  Could they be a game changer?

[Travis]

IT and tactical communications is what I do for the US Army. Watching this play out has been enlightening.

From friends in the military on this side of the Atlantic, I've heard that it's also enlightening to see e.g. what effects that modern defense weapons have on Russian tanks.  And how many (or few) of the vehicles that have Arena or other systems installed.

It's not that often we get to test that in real life situations.  Russia is forced to show their cards here.

Every aspect of the military profession will be studying this war for the next 10 years. Infantry and Armor branches will be studying how Ukrainian infantry picked apart a division's worth of vehicles in three weeks of skirmishes both in order to learn how, and to learn how to avoid it themselves. Field artillery will be studying how effective $50 quadcopters have been in spotting and adjusting fire. Air defense is reinvesting in short range missiles for drones.  My peers will continue to harp on the goodness of secure communications, and supply planners and mechanics get to say "I told you so" until they run out of breath. Even the public relations and psychological operations folks have something to study.

With all the equipment that the Russians have lost and there's pictures of online, I haven't seen any that are medical related. So they may not have much.

I've seen three captured military ambulances. All had crates of ammo in the passenger compartment.  They're definitely getting casualties out somehow. Belorussian doctors are reporting that their ERs are overflowing with Russian troops.

[Glenstache]

IT and tactical communications is what I do for the US Army. Watching this play out has been enlightening.

From friends in the military on this side of the Atlantic, I've heard that it's also enlightening to see e.g. what effects that modern defense weapons have on Russian tanks.  And how many (or few) of the vehicles that have Arena or other systems installed.

It's not that often we get to test that in real life situations.  Russia is forced to show their cards here.

Every aspect of the military profession will be studying this war for the next 10 years. Infantry and Armor branches will be studying how Ukrainian infantry picked apart a division's worth of vehicles in three weeks of skirmishes both in order to learn how, and to learn how to avoid it themselves. Field artillery will be studying how effective $50 quadcopters have been in spotting and adjusting fire. Air defense is reinvesting in short range missiles for drones.  My peers will continue to harp on the goodness of secure communications, and supply planners and mechanics get to say "I told you so" until they run out of breath. Even the public relations and psychological operations folks have something to study.

With all the equipment that the Russians have lost and there's pictures of online, I haven't seen any that are medical related. So they may not have much.

I've seen three captured military ambulances. All had crates of ammo in the passenger compartment.  They're definitely getting casualties out somehow. Belorussian doctors are reporting that their ERs are overflowing with Russian troops.

I wish this also extended to leaders seeing and learning that war is awful and maybe don't start them. There will be lessons learned on the political side as well, but I suspect not the ones I would wish for. China is certainly watching this closely as a potential lesson for Taiwan.

[rocketpj]

I wish this also extended to leaders seeing and learning that war is awful and maybe don't start them. There will be lessons learned on the political side as well, but I suspect not the ones I would wish for. China is certainly watching this closely as a potential lesson for Taiwan.

Well, Taiwan has been building, preparing and training their 'porcupine' strategy forever, the whole idea being that an invasion would be so incredibly costly it wouldn't be worth even attempting.  I gather that Ukraine has been preparing for this invasion since the 2014 invasion of Crimea, with similar intentions.  The concept of 'protracted war', which makes the cost to a more powerful force so high they eventually give up, is more or less how Mao won in China after all.

[PDXTabs]

I wish this also extended to leaders seeing and learning that war is awful and maybe don't start them. There will be lessons learned on the political side as well, but I suspect not the ones I would wish for. China is certainly watching this closely as a potential lesson for Taiwan.

Well, Taiwan has been building, preparing and training their 'porcupine' strategy forever, the whole idea being that an invasion would be so incredibly costly it wouldn't be worth even attempting.  I gather that Ukraine has been preparing for this invasion since the 2014 invasion of Crimea, with similar intentions.  The concept of 'protracted war', which makes the cost to a more powerful force so high they eventually give up, is more or less how Mao won in China after all.

This could also be a lesson for Taiwan:
Reuters: U.S. says Taiwan military budget boost insufficient for 'resilient defense'
War On The Rocks: Taiwan’s Defense Plans Are Going Off The Rails
WSJ: Does Taiwan’s Military Stand a Chance Against China? Few Think So

[Travis]

I wish this also extended to leaders seeing and learning that war is awful and maybe don't start them. There will be lessons learned on the political side as well, but I suspect not the ones I would wish for. China is certainly watching this closely as a potential lesson for Taiwan.

Well, Taiwan has been building, preparing and training their 'porcupine' strategy forever, the whole idea being that an invasion would be so incredibly costly it wouldn't be worth even attempting.  I gather that Ukraine has been preparing for this invasion since the 2014 invasion of Crimea, with similar intentions.  The concept of 'protracted war', which makes the cost to a more powerful force so high they eventually give up, is more or less how Mao won in China after all.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if Chinese strategists just started looking at Taiwan with a clean sheet of paper. They had to be as surprised at Ukraine and Russia's performance as we've been.

This could also be a lesson for Taiwan:
Reuters: U.S. says Taiwan military budget boost insufficient for 'resilient defense'
War On The Rocks: Taiwan’s Defense Plans Are Going Off The Rails
WSJ: Does Taiwan’s Military Stand a Chance Against China? Few Think So

And Taiwan is probably making an early Christmas list to send us.

[BNgarden]

...
I don't know, and like I said, I don't have a source. It very easily could be propaganda. I also saw things that said the Russians were killing Ukrainian POWs which is at least slightly more believable.
...

Sibley, I believe this was stated in several tweets in one (or more) of Kamil Galeev's threads, that Chechen troops are there to prevent desertions, in a manner similar to a group assigned this task under Stalin?  I don't know which thread any more (he posts so many long threads).  Also that Chechens are not used for regular army maneuvers but going into already held territory and killing remaining citizens.  If I have time to track those down, I will post a link.

[PDXTabs]

In the past Stalin used to haul entire populations of people to other parts of that big country.  History repeats itself.  Is Siberia getting new residents?

Not just Stalin, Tsar Nicholas II did that too. I guess that you could say it is a Russian tradition.

[Sibley]

...
I don't know, and like I said, I don't have a source. It very easily could be propaganda. I also saw things that said the Russians were killing Ukrainian POWs which is at least slightly more believable.
...

Sibley, I believe this was stated in several tweets in one (or more) of Kamil Galeev's threads, that Chechen troops are there to prevent desertions, in a manner similar to a group assigned this task under Stalin?  I don't know which thread any more (he posts so many long threads).  Also that Chechens are not used for regular army maneuvers but going into already held territory and killing remaining citizens.  If I have time to track those down, I will post a link.

I've read of bunch of his threads, not necessarily all. I'm not that good at Twitter. I think I've seen that though.

But I thought I saw somewhere that the Chechens were leaving? (Or someone else, I am not familiar enough with the different groups to keep them straight!)

[LennStar]

Cops as the true revolutionary class


https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1505922839785861120.html

Good pictures!  Those folks certainly do have a different culture.  It almost seems like some alien culture that you would read in a science fiction book.  I am beginning to understand why you see a very limited number of new products / technologies developed in Russia.  On the surface, one would think the opposite would be the case.  If the country was run differently, their vast land would be teaming with opportunities to extract the natural resources and to produce refined products for the world.   If the country was run differently there would be entrepreneurs making advances in oil and gas extraction.  They wouldn't need Schlumberger and Haliburton.

You got that the wrong way around. Because there is oil and gas, it can be extracted through ousiders. That gives the dactator the chance to have a hig income without being reliable on inside people. Also no need to do anything to foster entrepreneurs - who would just be people with increasing power.

Someone mentioned police earlier - they are corrupt to the arses. That is a feature, not a bug. They are incouraged to supplement their pay with corruption. That makes them loo favorably on the leader who gives them this opportunity, while on the same time makes it very easy to get them out of the way if needed.
Ever wondered why autocracies like Russia or China are so fond of "anticorruption"? Because everyone in any position of power is corrupt (again, a feature). Anti-corruption in autocratic states is simply getting rid of people the leader does not like. It has nothing to do with getting more honest people in power.

(again, read book in my sig)

[Travis]

Someone mentioned police earlier - they are corrupt to the arses. That is a feature, not a bug. They are incouraged to supplement their pay with corruption. That makes them loo favorably on the leader who gives them this opportunity, while on the same time makes it very easy to get them out of the way if needed.
Ever wondered why autocracies like Russia or China are so fond of "anticorruption"? Because everyone in any position of power is corrupt (again, a feature). Anti-corruption in autocratic states is simply getting rid of people the leader does not like. It has nothing to do with getting more honest people in power.

(again, read book in my sig)

Being corruptible is a job requirement. Being a straight shooter means you can't be trusted (ironic). If you can lie, cheat, and steal then you can do those things on behalf of the big boss when called upon. Like you said, it also creates instant leverage against that person if/when the boss wants to get rid of them.  Putin has allegedly sacked or arrested several senior army and intelligence officers on charges of theft and corruption. Those charges have the virtue of probably being accurate to some degree.

[Sibley]

Ok, you know when there's a new "toy" that is suddenly within reach? The newest gadget, tool, actual toy, whatever? And the person who wants that "toy" knows its within reach and there's that look they get of excitement, maybe a bit of subtle or not so subtle jumping? Applicable to all ages and genders. Yeah, that's the feel I'm getting from this thread:

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1506310039363112961

I'm vaguely aware of what the box thing is, yet it is apparently, the hot new "toy".

[Travis]

Ok, you know when there's a new "toy" that is suddenly within reach? The newest gadget, tool, actual toy, whatever? And the person who wants that "toy" knows its within reach and there's that look they get of excitement, maybe a bit of subtle or not so subtle jumping? Applicable to all ages and genders. Yeah, that's the feel I'm getting from this thread:

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1506310039363112961

I'm vaguely aware of what the box thing is, yet it is apparently, the hot new "toy".

Russia is supposed to have a well-developed electronic warfare capability which includes blocking our radars from functioning properly. This is the operations shelter for one such system. If there's a computer inside with system specifications, settings, frequencies, and cryptological data, then we could create a way to mitigate or bypass its capabilities somewhere down the road. This is like finding an Enigma machine.

[Abe]

Looks like the Ukrainians are starting to out-flank the Russian positions around Kyiv. Seems the Russians dug in too early and supplies are getting cut off. This may explain why they haven't tried to level the city yet.

[Travis]

Looks like the Ukrainians are starting to out-flank the Russian positions around Kyiv. Seems the Russians dug in too early and supplies are getting cut off. This may explain why they haven't tried to level the city yet.

This was inevitable as soon as the convoys started getting stuck and supply vehicles targeted.  They've been strung out along a narrow axis being supplied from basically one road with a flooded river on one side.  If the reports of Belorussian railroad sabotage are correct, then those troops have been isolated for days without food or ammo resupply.  If Ukraine can encircle them, it could mean several thousands Russians trapped.

[zolotiyeruki]

Looks like the Ukrainians are starting to out-flank the Russian positions around Kyiv. Seems the Russians dug in too early and supplies are getting cut off. This may explain why they haven't tried to level the city yet.

This was inevitable as soon as the convoys started getting stuck and supply vehicles targeted.  They've been strung out along a narrow axis being supplied from basically one road with a flooded river on one side.  If the reports of Belorussian railroad sabotage are correct, then those troops have been isolated for days without food or ammo resupply.  If Ukraine can encircle them, it could mean several thousands Russians trapped.

And those several thousand are likely to be mostly actual fighting personnel, rather than support/logistics.  I'm hoping the reports are true, but am staying skeptical for now--as much as I'm rooting for Ukraine, I have to remember that their government isn't exactly a bunch of boy scouts, either.

[SunnyDays]

Are you saying that Belorussia is on Ukraine's side?  I thought they were getting ready to help out the Russians.

[former player]

Are you saying that Belorussia is on Ukraine's side?  I thought they were getting ready to help out the Russians.

Dissidents/opposition in Belarus doing the sabotage. Dissent in Belarus is dangerous but probably not quite at current Russia levels.

[Sibley]

Ok, you know when there's a new "toy" that is suddenly within reach? The newest gadget, tool, actual toy, whatever? And the person who wants that "toy" knows its within reach and there's that look they get of excitement, maybe a bit of subtle or not so subtle jumping? Applicable to all ages and genders. Yeah, that's the feel I'm getting from this thread:

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1506310039363112961

I'm vaguely aware of what the box thing is, yet it is apparently, the hot new "toy".

Rumor or fact (no idea which) is that the new toy is going to the US.
https://twitter.com/space_osint/status/1506688082657091584?t=UpxmO0Bbeqh1pcvF7wrVDA&s=09

[clifp]

There's actually a series on Netflix about a Russian invasion in Norway, called Okkupert. It's extremely realistic and at times spine-chilling. It portrays the type of occupation that Putin probably had in mind for Ukraine, except those pesky Ukrainians decided to fight for their country instead. Unlike Sweden, Norway actually shares a border with Russia. I think everyone in Europe has the feeling that the Russians are coming for us one day, but especially in the northern countries and the former Eastern Bloc. I don't remember anything other than people talking about "when" the Russians come instead of "if" , and I was born around the time the Wall came down.

I watched the first couple of seasons of the show (Occupied in English) pretty interesting.  I thought the presume was more plausible than most of the speculative fiction shows.  Norway, goes super green and shuts down it is oil wells, triggering an invasion by the Russia, and the West is too dependent on the energy to fight Russia. (sounds similar to real life)  How was the show received in Norway.

[pecunia]

There's actually a series on Netflix about a Russian invasion in Norway, called Okkupert. It's extremely realistic and at times spine-chilling. It portrays the type of occupation that Putin probably had in mind for Ukraine, except those pesky Ukrainians decided to fight for their country instead. Unlike Sweden, Norway actually shares a border with Russia. I think everyone in Europe has the feeling that the Russians are coming for us one day, but especially in the northern countries and the former Eastern Bloc. I don't remember anything other than people talking about "when" the Russians come instead of "if" , and I was born around the time the Wall came down.

I caught an even more interesting show on Netflix.  Apparently this Zelenskyy was a big TV star prior to his appearance as the president of Ukraine.  He made a TV show about him being a teacher elected to the presidency of Ukraine.  I caught the first episode of it last night before I went to sleep. It was subtitled in English.  I thought it was kind of funny, but t doesn't always take much to amuse me.  "Servant of the People" is the title.

I watched the first couple of seasons of the show (Occupied in English) pretty interesting.  I thought the presume was more plausible than most of the speculative fiction shows.  Norway, goes super green and shuts down it is oil wells, triggering an invasion by the Russia, and the West is too dependent on the energy to fight Russia. (sounds similar to real life)  How was the show received in Norway.

[Travis]

Three days ago Russia was very proud to show one of its cargo ships unloading reinforcements at the Crimean port of Berdyansk.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1505772419906211840


Same port, and probably the same ship a few hours ago.

https://twitter.com/32Burner/status/1506887834648645634

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1506889755388223488

No word yet on whether it was a Ukrainian missile, safety mishap, or sabotage, but a ship is sunk, two others damaged, and unknown damage to the pier and whatever vehicles, weapons, and supplies were there.

[lemanfan]

Today a Swedish podcaster posted an interview with the (now) British comedian and talking head Konstantin Kisin who has a background in and deep knowledge of many things Russian and Ukrainian for family reasons not the least. On top of being interesting as he often is, KK put some historical facts in order for me regarding the talk of the far right / nazi-claims.  Worth a look or listen for the interested.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWCNkCZdYuU

The "denazification" and historical explanations starts around minute 28 and goes on for ten minutes or so but I thought the whole thing was worth listening to.

[Travis]

On the next installment of Russian logistics:

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1507056013245128716

Russians don't palletize or make much use of vehicular cranes during ground resupply, requiring more time and people to get the job done.

[pecunia]

On the next installment of Russian logistics:

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1507056013245128716

Russians don't palletize or make much use of vehicular cranes during ground resupply, requiring more time and people to get the job done.

I'd also guess Russia doesn't have much of an equivalent of OSHA.  Soldiers are tough, but I bet they would still get back injuries.  However, they do seem to have the macho thing down.

[Michael in ABQ]

On the next installment of Russian logistics:

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1507056013245128716

Russians don't palletize or make much use of vehicular cranes during ground resupply, requiring more time and people to get the job done.

Just unloading enough ammunition for an infantry company at the range for a day or two sucks (crates of ammunition are very heavy). And that's moving maybe 10-20 crates of ammo that weigh 50-70lbs each. Trying to load and unload an entire truck would really suck. Artillery/mortar ammunition would be even worse. That's why the US Army has the Palletized Load System (PLS) and flatracks. As you can see in the picture below you can basically unload the bed of the truck right onto the ground - and load it back up just as easily. So instead of parking a truck somewhere for a few hours while a team of Soldiers unloads it, you can drop off a flatrack of ammo in 5 minutes - with the two Soldiers in the truck. Then later on you can bring in a new flatrack and pickup the old empty one. This also allows each load to be built ahead of time so it can be customized for that unit. So you can prep multiple flatracks while the trucks are out moving stuff instead of have the truck stuck in one place being loaded up. Also, forklifts are great when it comes to moving pallets.




It just goes to show the old saying is very apt: "Amateurs study tactics. Professionals study logistics". The best Soldiers in the world are useless without ammo, food, water, fuel, batteries, spare parts, etc.

[Dancin'Dog]

On the next installment of Russian logistics:

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1507056013245128716

Russians don't palletize or make much use of vehicular cranes during ground resupply, requiring more time and people to get the job done.

Just unloading enough ammunition for an infantry company at the range for a day or two sucks (crates of ammunition are very heavy). And that's moving maybe 10-20 crates of ammo that weigh 50-70lbs each. Trying to load and unload an entire truck would really suck. Artillery/mortar ammunition would be even worse. That's why the US Army has the Palletized Load System (PLS) and flatracks. As you can see in the picture below you can basically unload the bed of the truck right onto the ground - and load it back up just as easily. So instead of parking a truck somewhere for a few hours while a team of Soldiers unloads it, you can drop off a flatrack of ammo in 5 minutes - with the two Soldiers in the truck. Then later on you can bring in a new flatrack and pickup the old empty one. This also allows each load to be built ahead of time so it can be customized for that unit. So you can prep multiple flatracks while the trucks are out moving stuff instead of have the truck stuck in one place being loaded up. Also, forklifts are great when it comes to moving pallets.




It just goes to show the old saying is very apt: "Amateurs study tactics. Professionals study logistics". The best Soldiers in the world are useless without ammo, food, water, fuel, batteries, spare parts, etc.

I bet those trucks are exciting targets to drive. 

[Poundwise]

I made the mistake of learning more about The Wagner Group and their behavior. Sickening. Some things can't be unseen.

The use of mercenaries makes me wonder, even if the US and Europe are afraid to give Ukraine air support, can't well-heeled private citizens supporting Ukraine buy fighter jets or hire mercenaries and send them to help Ukraine? I know it may sound silly but certainly there must be billionaires who are as aghast at this war as anybody else.

[PDXTabs]

The use of mercenaries makes me wonder, even if the US and Europe are afraid to give Ukraine air support, can't well-heeled private citizens supporting Ukraine buy fighter jets or hire mercenaries and send them to help Ukraine? I know it may sound silly but certainly there must be billionaires who are as aghast at this war as anybody else.

I'm not sure where they would find the fighter jets. I can't just hop down to the local arms dealer and order up an F-16 with all the trimmings.

With that said Elon Musk offered to fight Putin. I wonder how much R&D it would take for him to start dropping kinetic kill vehicles onto Russian armor and aircraft. He is kind of a nutter.

[Poundwise]

The use of mercenaries makes me wonder, even if the US and Europe are afraid to give Ukraine air support, can't well-heeled private citizens supporting Ukraine buy fighter jets or hire mercenaries and send them to help Ukraine? I know it may sound silly but certainly there must be billionaires who are as aghast at this war as anybody else.

I'm not sure where they would find the fighter jets. I can't just hop down to the local arms dealer and order up an F-16 with all the trimmings.

With that said Elon Musk offered to fight Putin. I wonder how much R&D it would take for him to start dropping kinetic kill vehicles onto Russian armor and aircraft. He is kind of a nutter.

What if they bought the fighter jets from a nearby country that was upgrading? I was in fact thinking of Elon Musk.

[PDXTabs]

The use of mercenaries makes me wonder, even if the US and Europe are afraid to give Ukraine air support, can't well-heeled private citizens supporting Ukraine buy fighter jets or hire mercenaries and send them to help Ukraine? I know it may sound silly but certainly there must be billionaires who are as aghast at this war as anybody else.

I'm not sure where they would find the fighter jets. I can't just hop down to the local arms dealer and order up an F-16 with all the trimmings.

With that said Elon Musk offered to fight Putin. I wonder how much R&D it would take for him to start dropping kinetic kill vehicles onto Russian armor and aircraft. He is kind of a nutter.

What if they bought the fighter jets from a nearby country that was upgrading? I was in fact thinking of Elon Musk.

You do see Mig-29s for sale every once and a while. In fact Paul Allen purchased one from Ukraine. But they are always "demilitarized" and sold without ordinance AFAIK. So you would need to find a country willing to sell you one in good working order with all the targeting systems intact, and presumably some munitions. I think that spare parts supply can be a problem too. Oh, and then you would need to figure out how to get it there.

[Sibley]

Starting with the reputable source: Sergei Shoigu, the defense chief Russia hasn't been seen for a while. He turned up.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putins-defence-chief-resurfaces-after-disappearing-view-2022-03-24/

The rumor: he had a heart attack.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/vladimir-putins-defence-minister-vanishes-26536281

[Sibley]

France, Turkey and Greece are planning to go pull people out of Mariupol. Hope it works.

https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-france-spearhead-exceptional-operation-evacuate-mariupol/

Edit:
Interview with a high level Ukrainian intelligence chief, no paywall.
https://justpaste.it/4yxrk

The internal politics of Ukraine, and their history, seem to be quite challenging in general. A strongwilled populace has its pros and cons.

[BicycleB]

The use of mercenaries makes me wonder, even if the US and Europe are afraid to give Ukraine air support, can't well-heeled private citizens supporting Ukraine buy fighter jets or hire mercenaries and send them to help Ukraine? I know it may sound silly but certainly there must be billionaires who are as aghast at this war as anybody else.

If every nut with a billion dollars adds weapons to the world's conflicts, we get more destruction with fewer checks and balances. Governments and laws aren't just concentrations of power, they on average and by design are capable of more restraint than the outliers of human impulse.

[Poundwise]

The use of mercenaries makes me wonder, even if the US and Europe are afraid to give Ukraine air support, can't well-heeled private citizens supporting Ukraine buy fighter jets or hire mercenaries and send them to help Ukraine? I know it may sound silly but certainly there must be billionaires who are as aghast at this war as anybody else.

If every nut with a billion dollars adds weapons to the world's conflicts, we get more destruction with fewer checks and balances. Governments and laws aren't just concentrations of power, they on average and by design are capable of more restraint than the outliers of human impulse.

Ugh. I suppose you're right. I'm surprised it hasn't happened before, though.
Oh, I guess it is happening. https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Media/News/Article/2031922/mercenaries-and-war-understanding-private-armies-today/
But creating warlords doesn't seem a good thing.

[LennStar]

Ugh. I suppose you're right. I'm surprised it hasn't happened before, though.
Oh, I guess it is happening. https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Media/News/Article/2031922/mercenaries-and-war-understanding-private-armies-today/
But creating warlords doesn't seem a good thing.

The thing is that people who have soldiers see problems as something to be solved by soldiers. It's so much faster and saves so much trouble!

Just imagine some f**** NIMBYs want to prevent you building a solar panel field or some wind generators. You only need to send over the nice guys in green and the people will happily help you buildig it after a thourough explanation.

[pecunia]

Ugh. I suppose you're right. I'm surprised it hasn't happened before, though.
Oh, I guess it is happening. https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Media/News/Article/2031922/mercenaries-and-war-understanding-private-armies-today/
But creating warlords doesn't seem a good thing.

The thing is that people who have soldiers see problems as something to be solved by soldiers. It's so much faster and saves so much trouble!

Just imagine some f**** NIMBYs want to prevent you building a solar panel field or some wind generators. You only need to send over the nice guys in green and the people will happily help you buildig it after a thourough explanation.

January 6, 2021 - yeh.

[Sibley]

This would explain a great deal of the very early days of the war - the riot gear, etc.

"According to @bellingcat  the Russian FSB paid billions of $ to ensure that some shadowy political class in Ukraine supported this war & created an internal coup d'état immediately after the invasion. But Ukrainian agents who took the money ditched them. They just screwed them over"

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1508092951997595650

[PDXTabs]

Joe Biden has said the US and its allies are prepared to respond with proportionate severity if Russia uses chemical weapons during its invasion of Ukraine as he urged the west to sustain pressure on Vladimir Putin and remain unified in its response to the war. - FT: Biden warns Russia of ‘response’ if it uses chemical weapons

"I think that it is necessary to have a peace mission - NATO, possibly some wider international structure - but a mission that will be able to defend itself, which will operate on Ukrainian territory," Kaczynski told a news conference. - Reuters: Top Polish politician calls for peacekeeping mission in Ukraine

[Travis]

"I think that it is necessary to have a peace mission - NATO, possibly some wider international structure - but a mission that will be able to defend itself, which will operate on Ukrainian territory," Kaczynski told a news conference. - Reuters: Top Polish politician calls for peacekeeping mission in Ukraine

Seems like Poland has been poking the bear for a couple weeks now.



Ukraine has retaken several villages between Kharkiv and Sumy, but it also looks like Russia is pulling back forces in that region and northwest of Kyiv.  Don't know yet if its a temporary reorganization or if they're going to abandon those fronts.

[pecunia]

Fair weather friends?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10656963/Chinese-energy-firm-Sinopec-Group-cancels-380m-investment-Russia-Ukraine-sanction-fears.html

Does Putin remind you of the second grade?  Wasn't there a time when all the kids shunned you?  I hope you weren't bald like him.

[Sibley]

Fair weather friends?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10656963/Chinese-energy-firm-Sinopec-Group-cancels-380m-investment-Russia-Ukraine-sanction-fears.html

Does Putin remind you of the second grade?  Wasn't there a time when all the kids shunned you?  I hope you weren't bald like him.

China I think only cares about themselves. They have friends of convenience.

[Travis]

Fair weather friends?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10656963/Chinese-energy-firm-Sinopec-Group-cancels-380m-investment-Russia-Ukraine-sanction-fears.html

Does Putin remind you of the second grade?  Wasn't there a time when all the kids shunned you?  I hope you weren't bald like him.

China I think only cares about themselves. They have friends of convenience.

Wouldn't surprise me if they were complying with sanctions in one hand and violating them in the other.

[Sibley]

Fair weather friends?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10656963/Chinese-energy-firm-Sinopec-Group-cancels-380m-investment-Russia-Ukraine-sanction-fears.html

Does Putin remind you of the second grade?  Wasn't there a time when all the kids shunned you?  I hope you weren't bald like him.

China I think only cares about themselves. They have friends of convenience.

Wouldn't surprise me if they were complying with sanctions in one hand and violating them in the other.

No bet at all, I'm sure they are.

I'm also not surprised that Poland is proposing a peacekeeping mission. Poland hates Russia, they've been in Ukraine's position before. Biden's comments were unexpectedly strong. Not sure that we'll do anything overtly besides ship weapons to Ukraine, but who knows.

[Radagast]

Regardless of how the military side fares, both Russian and Ukrainian peoples are screwed.

Russian: the sanctions are destroying their economy, they're going to be struggling to find basic supplies and food. Lots of comments about the demographics, well, killing or severely injuring thousands of your young men is going to have a negative impact on potential population growth.

Ukraine: they've had millions flee the country due to the fighting. Russia is destroying housing, schools, hospitals, basic infrastructure. There's going to be no where for these people live, no health care, no education for their children. Many of the refugees who have fled will likely not return, because they functionally won't be able to. Why would a parent pull their children out of safe housing and schooling to return to a country where there's no bed, no school? You can't justify it.
There will be entire towns and cities just wiped off the map after this. When a town is pounded to rubble, it really doesn't make much sense to rebuild it from completely scratch. It's far too difficult to remove all the rubble, then build. Much easier to just go somewhere else and build. For major cities, sure. Small ones though? Unlikely. And that's before we talk about the overall economy.

The rebuilding of Ukraine is going to take decades. Russia as well, but they may face additional challenges in terms of the rest of the world shunning them.

It might not be as long as you think for the nation as a whole. I recalled Bernstein's graph for Germany and Japan after WW2:
from http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/404/CH1.HTM
[couldn't link image, see attachments]

Both nations had basically fully recovered after 20 years, but I bet Ukraine can do even better, provided they can stay together and shake off corruption. The biggest reason is poverty. Japan was probably the wealthiest country in Asia at the time, and Germany was a contender for wealthiest Europe. However, Ukraine was the second poorest, not even in the ballpark of wealthier European nations. With grants, loans, investments, and general business and tourism I bet they could economically recover to a much higher point very quickly.

Though I think that Russia will try to protract the war for as long as possible, because Ukraine will become integrated tightly with Europe the moment the war ends.

I think Russia will have a harder time recovering. Putin and his ilk neglected the nation and economy very badly for a very long time. I traveled through Russia in 2010 and most of it was very poor, and it seemed like there had been little investment in anything since Soviet times.