Ukraine

[SotI]

Proxy war? Old hegemon? ... There is now a minor component of proxy war, but that was not how it was through 2022-02. Further, "proxy" implies that only the US and Russia and other "great powers" have agency, and all others are just pawns, which I reject.

Who is being sucked in? Ukrainians who were sitting around minding their own business, or Russians who went there on purpose?

I didn't mean to trigger an argument but Ukraine had been turning towards the West, and I don't think Russia (meaning Russian government) wouldn't have taken military action if it did not consider the West (= US + allies) as weak. So, yes, I consider it a challenge to the hegemonial structure determined by the West. As for "agency": agency without power is pretty pointless. Without power, you ARE only a pawn imo. Central Europe is full of such experiences going back centuries.

Who got "sucked in"?
- Ukrainians, who have to defend themselves against Russian aggression
- Russians who are  spun a tale of liberation of their brothers
The only beneficiaries are outside parties who make money from the conflict.

I suggest to read up on the 30-years war in central Europe and Germany (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty_Years%27_War) which was largely driven by external powers for European hegemony, if you don't consider this Ukrainian war a clusterf**k of silimar potential.


 

[Travis]

In my view, the restrictions placed on Russia do not rise to the level of being called sanctions.  Actually, I hope Zelensky makes a similar point, so that the world knows how much money is still flowing into Russia.

"In the first 100 days of the war, Russia earned a record 93 billion euros in revenue by exporting oil, gas and coal"
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/16/politics/russia-sanctions-ukraine-slow-economic-pain/index.html

Europe requires years to extract itself from Russian energy.  And Russia has found partners in China, India and even Saudi Arabia.  Saudi Arabia is essentially laundering Russian crude oil by displacing some internal use of its own oil.  The US initially expected Russia's GDP would fall by 15%, but the impact is probably closer to 4%.

If you follow the money, and not what politicians say, you'd conclude Germany is supporting Russia far more than Ukraine.  Their aid to Ukraine since the war began is less than what Germany sent Russia in March after the invasion (mostly buying natural gas).
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-germany-484fdfeecf86483356f5f003b77e30da
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/media-information/2022/ukraine-support-tracker-newly-committed-aid-for-ukraine-drops-to-almost-zero/

Energy prices are falling, Europe is buying a lot less Russian energy than a few months ago, and China and India are buying Russian oil at a 30-50% discount. Sanctions and the changes in energy exports aren't going to cause a Russian collapse, but it's starting to hurt. The extra money they made on high natural gas prices is already spent. They're looking at budget cuts next year and future earnings aren't looking any better.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/15/economy/russia-economy-budget-hole/index.html

[Radagast]

Proxy war? Old hegemon? ... There is now a minor component of proxy war, but that was not how it was through 2022-02. Further, "proxy" implies that only the US and Russia and other "great powers" have agency, and all others are just pawns, which I reject.

Who is being sucked in? Ukrainians who were sitting around minding their own business, or Russians who went there on purpose?

I didn't mean to trigger an argument but Ukraine had been turning towards the West, and I don't think Russia (meaning Russian government) wouldn't have taken military action if it did not consider the West (= US + allies) as weak. So, yes, I consider it a challenge to the hegemonial structure determined by the West. As for "agency": agency without power is pretty pointless. Without power, you ARE only a pawn imo. Central Europe is full of such experiences going back centuries.

Who got "sucked in"?
- Ukrainians, who have to defend themselves against Russian aggression
- Russians who are  spun a tale of liberation of their brothers
The only beneficiaries are outside parties who make money from the conflict.

I suggest to read up on the 30-years war in central Europe and Germany (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty_Years%27_War) which was largely driven by external powers for European hegemony, if you don't consider this Ukrainian war a clusterf**k of silimar potential.

Regardless of what Putin considered, the actual dynamic has been Russian weakness. The Russian empire was at one point very large, IMO mostly because they industrialized and went around fighting nomads with bows, but at that time empire was the best socioeconomic system. However European-origin countries at that time developed capitalism and then democracy, which was a better system than empire. The Russians couldn't keep up, and abandoned empire for communism. Communism was very effective and possibly up to the standards capitalist countries of around 1850, allowing Russia to shortly reconquer most of its lost empire by 1950. However it was not up to the growing democratic-capitalist system, and fell apart after 1990. Since then the former client states have been fleeing every which way for a better system. Under Putin, Russia did not adopt the new western system, or even the new-fangled Chinese system, and reverted back to the old empire model, which has predictably failed. And it shows: rebellions and wars have been happening around Russia's near abroad as Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine try to break away. Armenia and Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and others are flying out of orbit, and it is not because of Western weakness.

Oftentimes it is not possible to know who is strong without testing. History is full of minnows that became sharks. I think Ukraine would eventually have won anyway (probably within 3-5 years), but with weapons much faster. Why not allow them agency? Or all the other countries you discount?

I don't see anyone sucked in, only willing and unwilling participants, and I don't have sympathy for the willing ones regardless of their excuses and sad stories.

I don't see any parallels with the 30-years war except in the most general sense.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

Putin critic Bill Browder was interviewed by CNBC recently about Putin.  He says oligarchs in Russia are under Putin's thumb, will not overthrow him.  Mr Browder said Russians can tolerate war crimes by their military.  What they can't tolerate is weakness.  So the big threat to Putin is losing ground in Donbas and Crimea, which makes Putin look weak.  If Russia loses that territory entirely, the Russian people will see Putin as a weak leader.  Mr Browder also claimed if Putin is removed from power, he's as good as dead.

From that I gather Russia is desperate to hold Donbas and Crimea.  The gains elsewhere are welcome, but Ukraine's big test remains those two regions.  Russian desperation should ramp up as Ukraine makes gains there.

President Biden has a theory that full NATO involvement with Ukraine would cause a dangerous esacalation.  He's refusing to send long range missiles to Ukraine to avoid an escalation.  This could also be a veiled warning - Russia better not escalate or long range missles could be sent to Ukraine.

[LennStar]

Russia certainly thinks Europe is weak. Gayropa, as they call it, has fallen to rotten morals and it is Russias duty to safe the Ukrainian brother from it. And if half of the Ukrainians will be killed during it because they have been infected by the weakness - so be it, it's worth it!

[TomTX]

Russia certainly thinks Europe is weak. Gayropa, as they call it, has fallen to rotten morals

That's ironic coming from a country where it is standard practice to anally rape new soldiers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dedovshchina

[GuitarStv]

Even the (Very Bad) Orange Man warned in 2018 about German dependence on Russia (iirc, he was mocked by the Germans and much of MSM at the time).

That's because it was so blatently a sales pitch for his overflowing fracking stuff (Fracking had flooded the market and was operating at a loss), that everyone rolled their eyes at it.
May I quote Trump too, from the G20 meeting a year later, speaking about Putin?

He is a great guy. I think we had a really good meeting. I think he is a good person, we started discussing trade. I think we should have trade between Russia and USA, two great countries. We had a great meeting yesterday. He is a terrific person. Thank you very much.

Yeh - Putin ought to like him very much.  trump sure does have a high opinion of Mr. Putin.  The world is kind of down on Putin right now because he is an alleged war criminal.  Yet Trump sticks by him.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/23/trump-putin-ukraine-invasion-00010923

I got a giggle at the end of the video where Trump talked about the importance of having elections free of interference from other governments.  After the Mueller report showed that his campaign team and family arranged to meet with Russian operatives with the goal of interfering in US elections.

[GuitarStv]

Russia certainly thinks Europe is weak. Gayropa, as they call it, has fallen to rotten morals

That's ironic coming from a country where it is standard practice to anally rape new soldiers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dedovshchina

I'm not sure anal rape counts as a gay action.  Isn't rape typically more a power thing than sexual preference?

[Michael in ABQ]

I got a giggle at the end of the video where Trump talked about the importance of having elections free of interference from other governments.  After the Mueller report showed that his campaign team and family arranged to meet with Russian operatives with the goal of interfering in US elections.

Totally off topic, but you do know that the whole "Russia collusion" narrative was bought and paid for by the Clinton campaign, right? It was opposition research that used a bunch of rumors and self-referential sources to convince the FBI and the media that there was something to it - which many of them were all too happy to believe. Like any good smear campaign, it's a bell that can't be unrung.

[TomTX]

Russia certainly thinks Europe is weak. Gayropa, as they call it, has fallen to rotten morals

That's ironic coming from a country where it is standard practice to anally rape new soldiers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dedovshchina

I'm not sure anal rape counts as a gay action.  Isn't rape typically more a power thing than sexual preference?

I don't think crossing your fingers and saying "It's not gay!" or whatever mental state really changes the fact you have a guy jamming his penis in another guy's anus until he ejaculates.

[TomTX]

"Russia collusion"

Yea, let's try not to go down the Breitbart rabbit hole. There were plenty of ties between Trump and Russia.

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-russia-business-financial-ties-2018-11
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-organization-putin-penthouse-trump-tower-moscow-2018-11

[PeteD01]

"Russia collusion"

Yea, let's try not to go down the Breitbart rabbit hole. There were plenty of ties between Trump and Russia.

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-russia-business-financial-ties-2018-11
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-organization-putin-penthouse-trump-tower-moscow-2018-11

It´s been going on for a really long time and that Trump never had to answer for anything he did during all those years might also explain why he now believes that he is untouchable:

When Trump is finally revealed as an agent of foreign governments will America wake up?
Thom Hartmann
September 17, 2022

     


It’s time to tell the truth about Trump: he’s been an agent of organized crime and foreign governments for decades. And he’s continuing his work for Putin, Xi, Erdogan, and MBS — undermining Americans’ faith in democracy — to this day.
Czechoslovakia’s Státní bezpečnost (StB) first started paying attention to Trump back in 1977, as documented by the German newspaper Bild when the StB’s files were declassified, because Trump married Czech model Ivana Zelnickova, his first wife, recently buried on his golf course in New Jersey.

Czechoslovakia at that time was part of the Warsaw Pact with the Soviet Union, and Ivana and her family had been raised as good communists. Now that a Czech citizen was married into a wealthy and prominent American family, the StB saw an opportunity and started tracking Trump virtually from his engagement.


https://www.rawstory.com/trump-foreign-agent/?fbclid=IwAR1pet8xOoEDsHsfF2cQZL72DkuTeG-d9RjFB6Pfcyn_BKjil5vnVoJkYkQ

[GuitarStv]

I got a giggle at the end of the video where Trump talked about the importance of having elections free of interference from other governments.  After the Mueller report showed that his campaign team and family arranged to meet with Russian operatives with the goal of interfering in US elections.

Totally off topic, but you do know that the whole "Russia collusion" narrative was bought and paid for by the Clinton campaign, right? It was opposition research that used a bunch of rumors and self-referential sources to convince the FBI and the media that there was something to it - which many of them were all too happy to believe. Like any good smear campaign, it's a bell that can't be unrung.

I'd strongly encourage you to read Volume I of the Mueller report (you can get it here - https://www.justice.gov/archives/sco/file/1373816/download).  It wasn't written by the Clinton campaign and did not use rumors or self-referential sources.  It very clearly documents 170 contacts between the Trump and Trump campaign associates and Russian nationals.

To give an example of the type of contacts, this includes a meeting scheduled by the Trump campaign (Donald Trump Jr., Jared Kushner, Paul Manafort) with Russian agents (Azerbaijani-Russian oligarchs Aras and Emin Agalarov, Russian counterintelligence officer Rinat Akhmetshin, and Russian lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya) .  These agents communicated with Don Jr pretty clearly about their intent by email while setting the meeting up:

Emin just called and asked me to contact you with something very interesting.

The Crown prosecutor of Russia[a] met with his father Aras this morning and in their meeting offered to provide the Trump campaign with some official documents and information that would incriminate Hillary and her dealings with Russia and would be very useful to your father.

This is obviously very high level and sensitive information but is part of Russia and its government’s support for Mr. Trump – helped along by Aras and Emin.

- https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/07/donald-trumps-jrs-email-exchange/533244/


The Muller report also shows:
- Trump was receptive to a Campaign national security adviser’s (George Papadopoulos) pursuit of a back channel to Putin.
- Kremlin operatives provided the Campaign a preview of the Russian plan to distribute stolen emails.
- The Trump Campaign chairman and deputy chairman (Paul Manafort/Rick Gates) knowingly shared internal polling data and information on battleground states with a Russian spy; and the Campaign chairman worked with the Russian spy on a pro-Russia “peace” plan for Ukraine.
- The Trump Campaign chairman periodically shared internal polling data with the Russian spy with the expectation it would be shared with Putin-linked oligarch, Oleg Deripaska.
- Trump Campaign chairman Manafort expected Trump’s winning the presidency would mean Deripaska would want to use Manafort to advance Deripaska’s interests in the United States and elsewhere.
- Trump requested campaign affiliates to get Clinton’s emails, which resulted in a member of his campaign claiming to have successfully contacted Russian hackers.
- The Trump Campaign coordinated campaign-related public communications based on future WikiLeaks releases.
- Michael Cohen, on behalf of the Trump Organization, brokered a secret deal for a Trump Tower Moscow project directly involving Putin’s inner circle, at least until June 2016.
- During the presidential transition, Jared Kushner and Eric Prince engaged in secret back channel communications with Russian agents.  Kushner suggested this in order to speak with Russian Generals.  Prince and Kushner’s friend Rick Gerson conducted secret back channel meetings with a Putin agent to develop a plan for U.S.-Russian relations.
- During the presidential transition, in coordination with other members of the Transition Team, Michael Flynn spoke with the Russian Ambassador to prevent a tit for tat Russian response to the Obama administration’s imposition of sanctions for election interference; the Russians agreed not to retaliate saying they wanted a good relationship with the incoming administration.



So I'd say that there is rather ample evidence supporting Russian collusion with the Trump campaign, and that someone claiming this was a smear campaign really needs to read the information publicly available from Mueller's investigation. 

Mueller didn't ever claim that there was no collusion.

The president was not exculpated for the acts that he allegedly committed.

We did not address ‘collusion,’ which is not a legal term.  Rather, we focused on whether the evidence was sufficient to charge any member of the campaign with taking part in a criminal conspiracy. It was not.

- https://www.politico.eu/article/mueller-refutes-trumps-no-collusion-no-obstruction-line/

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

The failings of the Russian army have started to create a power vacuum in central Asia, It has been said.  People are less afraid of the Russians. And just the past few days, new fighting have erupted between Azerbaijan (Muslim, supported by Turkey) and Armenia (Christian, supported by Russia).

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/13/armenias-pm-says-49-soldiers-died-in-clashes-with-azerbaijan.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nagorno-Karabakh_conflict
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021%E2%80%932022_Armenia%E2%80%93Azerbaijan_border_crisis

And now shelling between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/kyrgyzstan-tajikistan-border-boils-1-killed-2-injured-in-fresh-conflict/articleshow/94204562.cms

Power vacuum in central Asia.

More here about the broader pattern of regional destabilization. China is increasingly playing in central Asia as well, which could lead to increased friction with Russia--though the recent Putin/Xi meeting, according to those who claim to be able to read between the lines, prominently featured Putin's supplication to Xi.

[Just Joe]

I don't think crossing your fingers and saying "It's not gay!" or whatever mental state really changes the fact you have a guy jamming his penis in another guy's anus until he ejaculates.
[/quote]

There are always things like mop handles. I seem to remember a police department that was in hot water for abusing their inmates in similar ways?

[lemanfan]

The failings of the Russian army have started to create a power vacuum in central Asia, It has been said.  People are less afraid of the Russians. And just the past few days, new fighting have erupted between Azerbaijan (Muslim, supported by Turkey) and Armenia (Christian, supported by Russia).

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/13/armenias-pm-says-49-soldiers-died-in-clashes-with-azerbaijan.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nagorno-Karabakh_conflict
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021%E2%80%932022_Armenia%E2%80%93Azerbaijan_border_crisis

And now shelling between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/kyrgyzstan-tajikistan-border-boils-1-killed-2-injured-in-fresh-conflict/articleshow/94204562.cms

Power vacuum in central Asia.

More here about the broader pattern of regional destabilization. China is increasingly playing in central Asia as well, which could lead to increased friction with Russia--though the recent Putin/Xi meeting, according to those who claim to be able to read between the lines, prominently featured Putin's supplication to Xi.

Thanks.  That article also brought up the Moldova / Transnistria situation. Not a lot of news from that corner of the world in my normal channels, but my acquaintance who stems from there is frustrated that his father believes Russian rumors of partisan attacks and don't get the hell out of there. 

Another friend from Bulgaria said that the people in Bulgaria are very split into pro-Russian and anti-Russian politically and the anti-Russian people are the ones who are moving abroad if they can. 

My third friend that speaks of such things is trying to convince me and some others to join him for a trip to Lviv to enjoy good restaurants at low prices and thus also support the Ukrainian economy with our hard currencies. I'm not really sure that I dare go there yet.  But perhaps I'll at least go to Warsaw soon, the polish economy is also affected by this.

[PeteD01]

Another update from the The Kyiv Independent:

Retired US General Ben Hodges: ‘We’ve reached irreversible momentum for Ukraine’
September 19, 2022 11:33 pm
by Olga Rudenko

Ben Hodges: The only way it can end is for Ukraine to regain total sovereignty over everything, including Crimea and Donbas, for the 1 million plus Ukrainians who were deported by Russia to be accounted for and all of them brought back. And then, the war crimes — that process will happen.

But I think that the United States will establish a much better bilateral relationship, a normal bilateral relationship with Ukraine, but with a large military cooperation component to it. I don't know exactly what that will look like. But I can imagine that there will be some sort of relationship like we have with Israel, for example. 



https://kyivindependent.com/national/retired-us-general-if-russia-used-nuclear-weapon-in-ukraine-us-would-have-to-get-directly-involved?fbclid=IwAR0X4fop261_1OkApkOgDJ8PiEizGZzchHc-yJIK_p7Im74pTg9wOfwTzHo

[Just Joe]

My third friend that speaks of such things is trying to convince me and some others to join him for a trip to Lviv to enjoy good restaurants at low prices and thus also support the Ukrainian economy with our hard currencies. I'm not really sure that I dare go there yet.  But perhaps I'll at least go to Warsaw soon, the polish economy is also affected by this.

Just send cash to those places. Make pre-paid reservations and stay home.

[pecunia]

Russia is looking at holding elections in the breakaway provinces as an "opportunity" to join Russia.  How should the Ukrainians and the world react to these elections? 

In my opinion, they will be bogus.  Dictators hold these elections and then tell the world, "See people voted."  If the vote happens to not go the way they want by some miracle, they ignore it.

[GuitarStv]

Russia is looking at holding elections in the breakaway provinces as an "opportunity" to join Russia.  How should the Ukrainians and the world react to these elections? 

In my opinion, they will be bogus.  Dictators hold these elections and then tell the world, "See people voted."  If the vote happens to not go the way they want by some miracle, they ignore it.

Are you trying to besmirch the fair nature of Russian held elections?  Next you'll be telling me the Russian state conducted a multi-year doping program to help their athletes cheat in the Olympics . . .

According to the Russian and supervised referendum, Crimea voted to be Russian overwhelmingly - 96.77%.  Given these numbers we can expect that Ukranian forces will have quite a battle on their hands against the people of Crimea should they attempt to retake this land.  :P

[sixwings]

Russia is looking at holding elections in the breakaway provinces as an "opportunity" to join Russia.  How should the Ukrainians and the world react to these elections? 

In my opinion, they will be bogus.  Dictators hold these elections and then tell the world, "See people voted."  If the vote happens to not go the way they want by some miracle, they ignore it.

Are you trying to besmirch the fair nature of Russian held elections?  Next you'll be telling me the Russian state conducted a multi-year doping program to help their athletes cheat in the Olympics . . .

According to the Russian and supervised referendum, Crimea voted to be Russian overwhelmingly - 96.77%.  Given these numbers we can expect that Ukranian forces will have quite a battle on their hands against the people of Crimea should they attempt to retake this land.  :P

It's nothing but propaganda to justify a full mobilisation of russia. It's for internal propaganda purposes.

[pecunia]

Russia is looking at holding elections in the breakaway provinces as an "opportunity" to join Russia.  How should the Ukrainians and the world react to these elections? 

In my opinion, they will be bogus.  Dictators hold these elections and then tell the world, "See people voted."  If the vote happens to not go the way they want by some miracle, they ignore it.

Are you trying to besmirch the fair nature of Russian held elections?  Next you'll be telling me the Russian state conducted a multi-year doping program to help their athletes cheat in the Olympics . . .

According to the Russian and supervised referendum, Crimea voted to be Russian overwhelmingly - 96.77%.  Given these numbers we can expect that Ukranian forces will have quite a battle on their hands against the people of Crimea should they attempt to retake this land.  :P

It's nothing but propaganda to justify a full mobilisation of russia. It's for internal propaganda purposes.

I wonder if it will work.  Russians have had generations of leaders lying to them.  Would it be enough for 18 year old Ivan to feel the need to fight his cousins in Ukraine?  Russians aren't dumb.  Maybe they will make good money if they fight, most will realize you can't spend it if you are dead.

[Just Joe]

Russia is looking at holding elections in the breakaway provinces as an "opportunity" to join Russia.  How should the Ukrainians and the world react to these elections? 

In my opinion, they will be bogus.  Dictators hold these elections and then tell the world, "See people voted."  If the vote happens to not go the way they want by some miracle, they ignore it.

Cheaper to relocate those Russian supporting Ukrainians to Russia than starting a war.

[Sibley]

Russia is looking at holding elections in the breakaway provinces as an "opportunity" to join Russia.  How should the Ukrainians and the world react to these elections? 

In my opinion, they will be bogus.  Dictators hold these elections and then tell the world, "See people voted."  If the vote happens to not go the way they want by some miracle, they ignore it.

Cheaper to relocate those Russian supporting Ukrainians to Russia than starting a war.

That only gets you the people, not the land. Russia doesn't seem to care about the people, at least based on how they're treating their troops.

[LennStar]

Russia is looking at holding elections in the breakaway provinces as an "opportunity" to join Russia.  How should the Ukrainians and the world react to these elections? 

In my opinion, they will be bogus.  Dictators hold these elections and then tell the world, "See people voted."  If the vote happens to not go the way they want by some miracle, they ignore it.

Are you trying to besmirch the fair nature of Russian held elections?  Next you'll be telling me the Russian state conducted a multi-year doping program to help their athletes cheat in the Olympics . . .

According to the Russian and supervised referendum, Crimea voted to be Russian overwhelmingly - 96.77%.  Given these numbers we can expect that Ukranian forces will have quite a battle on their hands against the people of Crimea should they attempt to retake this land.  :P

It's nothing but propaganda to justify a full mobilisation of russia. It's for internal propaganda purposes.

I wonder if it will work.  Russians have had generations of leaders lying to them.  Would it be enough for 18 year old Ivan to feel the need to fight his cousins in Ukraine?  Russians aren't dumb.  Maybe they will make good money if they fight, most will realize you can't spend it if you are dead.

Proceedings indicate that most Russians are indeed dumb enough to believe what Putin tells them.
But then, many US people believe Trump is a good president and that his election was stolen.
And in Germany many believe that homeopathic water has a huge effect when you spray it on suger and none when it is dropped in waste water.

[GuitarStv]

My mind nearly exploded when someone explained the 'science' of homeopathy to me.

"So there's this energy, right?  And it remains in water.  And the more water you add, the more powerful the energy gets.  So you take something bad or poisonous, and then dilute it away until there's virtually none of it left.  And it becomes an incredibly powerful cure."

"Since the Earth is a closed system where water is endlessly recycled, doesn't that make every drop of water the most powerful homeopathic cure ever then?"

"No, only the stuff they charge money for."

:S

[Telecaster]

I wonder if it will work.  Russians have had generations of leaders lying to them.  Would it be enough for 18 year old Ivan to feel the need to fight his cousins in Ukraine?  Russians aren't dumb.  Maybe they will make good money if they fight, most will realize you can't spend it if you are dead.

As I understand it, the war has broad popular support in Russia.  However, part of that is because they are mostly sending poor, ethnic minorities to do the fighting.  If the children of the monied elites had to go fight, the perception might change.

I'm not sure if a full mobilization is even possible.  Most or all of the officers and NCOs are currently fighting in Ukraine.  Who would train up and lead the new soldiers?   

[LennStar]

My mind nearly exploded when someone explained the 'science' of homeopathy to me.

"So there's this energy, right?  And it remains in water.  And the more water you add, the more powerful the energy gets.  So you take something bad or poisonous, and then dilute it away until there's virtually none of it left.  And it becomes an incredibly powerful cure."

"Since the Earth is a closed system where water is endlessly recycled, doesn't that make every drop of water the most powerful homeopathic cure ever then?"

"No, only the stuff they charge money for."

:S

You forgot the shaking! The shaking! You have to shake it or the water does not remember that it should remember the properties of Stuff A! (but not Stuff B, C or D for that matter. How water knows what you mean....)
Oh, and legally you are not allowed to sell bottled water with globuli. But it's no problem to put stuff that you have diluted 1:1000000 on sugar pills and put those into the bottled water that you sell.

There was a funny show about that just a few days ago, but I guess it won't get English subtitles.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IK5BZdnqMDU

Also in a "reputable" homeopathic science magazine they had several studies showing the danger of homepathic water in nature (like fish having lower reproduciton rates) and warned about it, but somehow the producing companies totally ignore that highly potentiated danger and do not even react if asked what they do with the medicinal waste.

[pecunia]

Here's a video of Putin's speech rousing the people for his draft.  Once again when he talks black becomes white and up becomes down.  You are thrown into an alternate reality without Carlos Castaneda's jimsonweed.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BsNbUVpeay8

Will Russians finally react as Putin wants them to kill their relatives?

[Just Joe]

Russia is looking at holding elections in the breakaway provinces as an "opportunity" to join Russia.  How should the Ukrainians and the world react to these elections? 

In my opinion, they will be bogus.  Dictators hold these elections and then tell the world, "See people voted."  If the vote happens to not go the way they want by some miracle, they ignore it.

Cheaper to relocate those Russian supporting Ukrainians to Russia than starting a war.

That only gets you the people, not the land. Russia doesn't seem to care about the people, at least based on how they're treating their troops.

True... You're reminding me to pay attention to their actions, not their words...

[Just Joe]

And in Germany many believe that homeopathic water has a huge effect when you spray it on suger and none when it is dropped in waste water.

Thanks - now I have something to read about on my lunch break. Whole new topic to be skeptical of. ;)

[Jack0Life]

Here's a video of Putin's speech rousing the people for his draft.  Once again when he talks black becomes white and up becomes down.  You are thrown into an alternate reality without Carlos Castaneda's jimsonweed.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BsNbUVpeay8

Will Russians finally react as Putin wants them to kill their relatives?

Putin is just completely insane.
What's the point of mobilizing 300,000+ men and sending them off to die ??
It's clearly since the war that Russian weaponry are inferior to what the US is sending. They can't compete.
I guess Putin is clueless about the advance weapons being produced these days.

[achvfi]

It's clearly since the war that Russian weaponry are inferior to what the US is sending. They can't compete.
I guess Putin is clueless about the advance weapons being produced these days.

Russia and Ukraine are some of the top weapon exporters of the world. For many decades now top military powers including China and India have been producing weapons with technology derived from Russian armaments.

After the failure of Russian military tactics and armaments, war in Ukraine is a major wake up call to all major military powers.

[LennStar]

And in Germany many believe that homeopathic water has a huge effect when you spray it on suger and none when it is dropped in waste water.

Thanks - now I have something to read about on my lunch break. Whole new topic to be skeptical of. ;)

Oh, you will have a lot of fun with that, if you want to dig deep!

Here's a video of Putin's speech rousing the people for his draft.  Once again when he talks black becomes white and up becomes down.  You are thrown into an alternate reality without Carlos Castaneda's jimsonweed.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BsNbUVpeay8

Will Russians finally react as Putin wants them to kill their relatives?

Looking at the borders, yes, it seems all the "eligible" (and relativly wealthy) Russians are fleeing the country. Some airplane routes already cost 5 times as much, and cars at borders go for miles.

[dignam]

Wasn't the Kremlin claiming they've only lost around ~6000 soldiers in Ukraine since February?  Yet they need to mobilize 300k more...hmmm...almost like the truth is between the lines or something.

[Tyson]

Wasn't the Kremlin claiming they've only lost around ~6000 soldiers in Ukraine since February?  Yet they need to mobilize 300k more...hmmm...almost like the truth is between the lines or something.

The truth is whatever they need it to be today.

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

Here's a video of Putin's speech rousing the people for his draft.  Once again when he talks black becomes white and up becomes down.  You are thrown into an alternate reality without Carlos Castaneda's jimsonweed.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BsNbUVpeay8

Will Russians finally react as Putin wants them to kill their relatives?

Putin is just completely insane.
What's the point of mobilizing 300,000+ men and sending them off to die ??
It's clearly since the war that Russian weaponry are inferior to what the US is sending. They can't compete.
I guess Putin is clueless about the advance weapons being produced these days.

Putin is not insane, and actually, I think everything he has done so far has been perfectly rational (which is not the same thing as correct). It is unlikely Putin can survive a decisive loss in Ukraine, so he has to do something to not appear powerless in the face of Ukrainian advances. If that costs 300,000 or even 10 million lives, so be it.

[Sibley]

ISW doesn't think partial mobilization is going to be a cure-all for Russia.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-21

I guess we'll see what happens. If Russia just throws thousands more ill trained, ill equipped and ill motivated troops at Ukraine, I doubt that's going to be effective. If this manages to cause dissention and unrest in Russia, Putin may really regret it. If he's still alive to regret it that is.

[LennStar]

ISW doesn't think partial mobilization is going to be a cure-all for Russia.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-21

I guess we'll see what happens. If Russia just throws thousands more ill trained, ill equipped and ill motivated troops at Ukraine, I doubt that's going to be effective. If this manages to cause dissention and unrest in Russia, Putin may really regret it. If he's still alive to regret it that is.

Yeah, this is a desperate move. He lost his last pressure against the West when he shut down the gas completely. But a thread only works if the target thinks it can avoid it. By that time everyone was convinced he will stop the gas whatever happens because the end would be either that or not supplying anything to Ukraine.
The only thing he can do now is somehow win with the miliary he can scrape together. You can also see his desperation by resurfacing of the atomic bomb threats.

From all what I have read that mobilisation will not help much. Surely it will help booster man numbers, so partisans (which have been quite active) might have a harder time and such big surprise pushes as in the last 2 weeks will be less likely - but as others pointed out, soldiers who have negative morale and are lacking supplies will not put up a real fight. Not to mention that they don't have current training while the Ukrainian reserves have.
And I can't see that supply situation getting better in the winter. 

[zolotiyeruki]

Another, similar perspective from Gen Hertling:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1572571676524838915.html

tl;dr: Russian army training was terrible before this war, and with so many losses among what little NCO corps they had, it's even worse now.

[PeteD01]

These guys got a lesson regarding the relationship of the fascist state and its subjects - even hollering on the street in support of the government is suspicious activity because it shows political engagement which is strongly discouraged in the established fascist state. Funny this:

Russian men who backed Putin left in shock after being forcefully taken away by military
A video has emerged in which Russian men who backed President Vladimir Putin's mobilisation move were seen forcefully being taken away by military.

Three Russian men who backed President Vladimir Putin's mobilisation move ended in disbelief after they were forcefully taken away as conscripts. A video of three Russian men who came out in support of Putin`s mobilisation and to condemn the people protesting against it being forcefully taken away by the military has surfaced on social media.

https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/russian-men-backed-putin-forcefully-taken-away-military-video-2003190-2022-09-22?utm_source=rss

[PeteD01]

Putin has effectively created a pre-revolutionary situation to be exploited:

Day 210, September 21. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast.

Posted on 22 September 2022
in Arestovych Broadcasts, Video
by WarTranslated

The way to collapse the Russian system and hinder mobilisation is mass protests. Arestovich also calls for mutinies of Russian units. Russia and the whole world will stand behind the first regiment to mutiny. The government cannot mobilise and give weapons to a protesting mass.

https://wartranslated.com/day-210-september-21-summary-of-arestovych-and-feygin-daily-broadcast/

[Glenstache]

Putin has painted himself into a corner unless he has a sudden reversal of fortune in Ukraine. I fear that he may resort to nukes if enouhg Ukranian forces mass in a location that they could be used effectively against them, or there is an alternate strategic location to strike. I honestly don't know what a  response to that action would look like.

[Michael in ABQ]

Putin has painted himself into a corner unless he has a sudden reversal of fortune in Ukraine. I fear that he may resort to nukes if enough Ukranian forces mass in a location that they could be used effectively against them, or there is an alternate strategic location to strike. I honestly don't know what a response to that action would look like.

The utility of a tactical nuclear strike is pretty limited. If we were talking Cold War era with hundreds of tanks or armored vehicles and thousands of troops massed together at some chokepoint or at some salient then perhaps it could have been effective. But with precision guided weapons and a lot lower density on the battlefield it just doesn't make sense. A tactical nuke might kill most everyone within a mile or so but that would mean Russian troops would need to pull back from the front to avoid being killed as well. Then there's the problem of trying to push through a nuclear blast zone where there will be rubble, fallen trees, destroyed bridges, etc. - not something they can easily push through. Even if they do, it would require a massive logistical effort to keep any sort of breakthrough supplied and moving. Building that up would be easily detected by US intelligence and passed on to Ukraine who can then target any sort of supply build up with HIMARS.

A strategic nuclear strike on something like a city would not only risk a general nuclear war between Russia and the west but would make Russia even more of a pariah in the eyes of the world. It would also do little but harden the resolve of Ukraine and the west against Russia. I don't see Ukraine deciding to capitulate if a city was destroyed since they've already lost several cities (albeit with hundreds or thousands of civilian casualties instead of tens or hundreds of thousands).

[PeteD01]

A tactical nuclear strike would probably destabilize Russia more quickly than anything else could at this point.

[pecunia]

Another, similar perspective from Gen Hertling:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1572571676524838915.html

tl;dr: Russian army training was terrible before this war, and with so many losses among what little NCO corps they had, it's even worse now.

So before this mobilization, there was also talk about Putin pulling old equipment out of munitions storage.  The example often given was the use of T-61 tanks which are supposedly very outdated.  The guns given to the separatist soldiers were shown to be Mosin rifles which happen to be rifles used by the old Russian Empire.  There have been elaborate descriptions of military equipment being blown up.  This includes many fuel trucks. 

Can Russia supply the newly recruited men with adequate equipment?  Is their manufacturing capability adequate to produce what their soldiers need?  Even when the war was going well for Russia, Russians traded some of what was issued to them for better Ukrainian gear.

So they are sending poorly equipped, poorly trained older men to a war that they don't want to fight.  I guess it makes as much sense as most wars.

[GuitarStv]

If Russia nukes the Ukraine, would the west look the other way . . . or would there be retaliatory nuclear strikes?

If two sides are nuclear armed and only one of them is willing to use their arms then they have all the power.  That makes me feel that an attack in Ukraine would lead to one in Russia.  Which would probably lead to some sort of retaliation back.

I guess my hope would be that Russian nuclear military might is similarly withered as their ground troops.

[Just Joe]

I could see the west avoiding retaliating with nuclear weapons to to prevent an escalation to WWIII. What I don't know is how they would manage Russia b/c Russia would need to be tamed before any cities further west face the same fate. No fly zone? Precision bombing with conventional weapons? Bombing Red Square into rubble?

A while back we were talking about this fellow and his daughter getting blown up in his SUV:
https://wartranslated.com/aleksandr-dugin-in-his-article-calls-for-mobilisation-of-the-whole-russia-to-fight-the-antichrist-western-world/

I feel like if a person steps out on the public world stage and speaks such inflammatory things then they are officially combatants and face whatever consequences come with that.

https://wartranslated.com/day-210-september-21-summary-of-arestovych-and-feygin-daily-broadcast/
The last section speaks of Russia's difficulties even outfitting existing personnel with modern weapons. That even outfitting 15K soldiers may be impossible. 300K new soldiers with a week's basic training? Seems very foolhardy.

[PeteD01]

If Russia nukes the Ukraine, would the west look the other way . . . or would there be retaliatory nuclear strikes?

If two sides are nuclear armed and only one of them is willing to use their arms then they have all the power.  That makes me feel that an attack in Ukraine would lead to one in Russia.  Which would probably lead to some sort of retaliation back.

I guess my hope would be that Russian nuclear military might is similarly withered as their ground troops.

Many of their nuclear warheads aere junk and the delivery systems are in no better shape.
Attacks on cities make little strategic sense and tactical nuclear attacks are extremely limited in usefulness on the battlefield, as has been stated above, and there is no way a disorganized military could take advantage of a strike anyway.
While there is a possibility of a nuclear strike by Russia, it would not lead to the end of the world but to a US response that would end the Putin regime right there.
In my opinion, the greatest danger of a Russian nuclear intervention would be the power vacuum following the elimination of the Russian Federation's power at a moments notice. That said, the Russian Federation will not survive this war but its demise should preferably be in slow motion to prevent power vacuums that might prove destabilizing for players bigger than Russia.

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

These guys got a lesson regarding the relationship of the fascist state and its subjects - even hollering on the street in support of the government is suspicious activity because it shows political engagement which is strongly discouraged in the established fascist state. Funny this:

Russian men who backed Putin left in shock after being forcefully taken away by military
A video has emerged in which Russian men who backed President Vladimir Putin's mobilisation move were seen forcefully being taken away by military.

Three Russian men who backed President Vladimir Putin's mobilisation move ended in disbelief after they were forcefully taken away as conscripts. A video of three Russian men who came out in support of Putin`s mobilisation and to condemn the people protesting against it being forcefully taken away by the military has surfaced on social media.

https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/russian-men-backed-putin-forcefully-taken-away-military-video-2003190-2022-09-22?utm_source=rss

Yeah I don't think that's what's happening here. The police are dragging some loud drunks off the street maybe, but that's not a forced mobilization in the video.