Author Topic: Ukraine  (Read 559629 times)

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2100 on: September 04, 2022, 11:47:59 AM »
Or worse, if you think of the propaganda they have been fed.

But you really have "popular" children's books which depict real war? Where are you? Russia or USA?
US, author was British, here it is on German ;)
https://www.amazon.de/Brian-Jacques/dp/3570260224/ref=mp_s_a_1_1?crid=2H0B6K3NP19IC&keywords=Kotir%2C+die+Burg+des+Schreckens&qid=1662277105&sprefix=kotir+die+burg+des+schreckens%2Caps%2C530&sr=8-1

Did any of my child hood books not depict war is the real question. I think maybe 25% did not. Lord of the Rings, Star Trek novels, golden compass, Harry Potter, basically war mostly. For non fiction I enjoyed ready about castles and wars.
Okay, not what I consider children's books ;) I was thinking of books for ages in single digits.

I read Mossflower in elementary school. Third grade. I read ALL of Brian Jacques books as a kid. My mother was quite tired of me reading those books, over and over again. The series was quite popular. Most of them involved war or conflict in some way. "Redwall" was a full on siege of a peaceful settlement.

Not sure why you're not considering an 8 or 9 year old to not be a child.

NorthernIkigai

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2101 on: September 04, 2022, 12:10:52 PM »
Also, Harry Potter is like the definition of children’s books. The fact that a whole bunch of grown ups also read them doesn’t change that.

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2102 on: September 04, 2022, 02:05:49 PM »
Okay, not what I consider children's books ;) I was thinking of books for ages in single digits.

Not sure why you're not considering an 8 or 9 year old to not be a child.
Either I have a problem with English, or singel digit age means under ten, so 8 and 9 would be spot on. (Though I would put the border at puberty, so roughly 12)

And Harry is a bit too dark for single digits??

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2103 on: September 04, 2022, 03:29:27 PM »
Okay, not what I consider children's books ;) I was thinking of books for ages in single digits.

Not sure why you're not considering an 8 or 9 year old to not be a child.
Either I have a problem with English, or singel digit age means under ten, so 8 and 9 would be spot on. (Though I would put the border at puberty, so roughly 12)

And Harry is a bit too dark for single digits??

I read Harry Potter to a 6 year old because she loved it and would get anyone she could to read it to her. I was around 16 at that time and hadn't read it previously at that point.

Your view of children and their interests is skewed for some reason. Either that or you haven't read any of these books and therefore are going on what others have said. As much as war and conflict is present in the Redwall series, it's not bloody or traumatic.

Radagast

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2104 on: September 04, 2022, 04:27:51 PM »
I read Mossflower in elementary school. Third grade. I read ALL of Brian Jacques books as a kid. My mother was quite tired of me reading those books, over and over again. The series was quite popular. Most of them involved war or conflict in some way. "Redwall" was a full on siege of a peaceful settlement.

Not sure why you're not considering an 8 or 9 year old to not be a child.
Yup me too. Read every book in the series that had been published again and again from 8-11, then I found The Lord of the Rings and there was no going back.

I think the Mossflower war is actually a pretty in-depth examination of a situation which is very close to what is actually happening in Ukraine in nearly every aspect. An evil army occupying an area followed by years of plundering resulting in deep poverty, guerilla and irregular war, spies and double agents, theories of supply chain disruption, baddies discussing whether to win by burning the whole forest down, mercenaries private military companies, strategies of driving out an invader with better hardware, effects of low morale, etc. The attack on Kotir matches very closely the string of events leading to the attack on Kherson, even down to the season.

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2105 on: September 05, 2022, 02:58:29 AM »
Okay, not what I consider children's books ;) I was thinking of books for ages in single digits.

Not sure why you're not considering an 8 or 9 year old to not be a child.
Either I have a problem with English, or singel digit age means under ten, so 8 and 9 would be spot on. (Though I would put the border at puberty, so roughly 12)

And Harry is a bit too dark for single digits??

I read Harry Potter to a 6 year old because she loved it and would get anyone she could to read it to her. I was around 16 at that time and hadn't read it previously at that point.

Your view of children and their interests is skewed for some reason. Either that or you haven't read any of these books and therefore are going on what others have said. As much as war and conflict is present in the Redwall series, it's not bloody or traumatic.
Oh, I know there are kids who like it when it gets really bloody. And I didn't read Potter, only watched the films once... was not my alley.
But generally parents don't want their children reading those books (at young age). And if I look at lists "from 10 years" the closest seems to be book 6 from the "Scary Harry" series, which is a comedy, so not dark in actuality.

Maybe that's one of those US / Germany differences.

Imma

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2106 on: September 05, 2022, 04:38:07 AM »
Okay, not what I consider children's books ;) I was thinking of books for ages in single digits.

Not sure why you're not considering an 8 or 9 year old to not be a child.
Either I have a problem with English, or singel digit age means under ten, so 8 and 9 would be spot on. (Though I would put the border at puberty, so roughly 12)

And Harry is a bit too dark for single digits??

I read Harry Potter to a 6 year old because she loved it and would get anyone she could to read it to her. I was around 16 at that time and hadn't read it previously at that point.

Your view of children and their interests is skewed for some reason. Either that or you haven't read any of these books and therefore are going on what others have said. As much as war and conflict is present in the Redwall series, it's not bloody or traumatic.
Oh, I know there are kids who like it when it gets really bloody. And I didn't read Potter, only watched the films once... was not my alley.
But generally parents don't want their children reading those books (at young age). And if I look at lists "from 10 years" the closest seems to be book 6 from the "Scary Harry" series, which is a comedy, so not dark in actuality.

Maybe that's one of those US / Germany differences.

I actually read HP when I was in highschool (wasn't published yet when I was a kid).  I thought it was a bit too childish at that point. There wasn't loads of violence in the book as far as I remember, I've only seen one or two of the films. Not more violent than the Grimm Brothers and we read those stories to 4 year olds. 

What did you read as a child? Maybe I've heard of some of the books.

One of the most popular children's books in the Dutch language, Oorlogswinter by Jan Terlouw, features a scene where the main character's dad is murdered in public by nazi's as a revenge attack for a resistance action the the protagonist, a kid, was a part of. That's a shocking scene but it's not more shocking than what we teach kids in history class or the stories that we heard at home. I've not heard of parents not wanting their child to read that book because it's too violent.

Travis

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2107 on: September 05, 2022, 11:43:37 AM »
https://twitter.com/pauljawin/status/1566769592835399680?s=21&t=_l338wLIJASbp18Zhezi9g

Captured weapons from the first few days of the Kherson offensive.

Northeastern front line has moved from Vysokopillya to Novovoskresens'ke over the course of two days. Pro-Russian Telegram accounts complaining about loss of front line communications and coordination for artillery support.

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2108 on: September 05, 2022, 06:44:32 PM »
Okay, not what I consider children's books ;) I was thinking of books for ages in single digits.

Not sure why you're not considering an 8 or 9 year old to not be a child.
Either I have a problem with English, or singel digit age means under ten, so 8 and 9 would be spot on. (Though I would put the border at puberty, so roughly 12)

And Harry is a bit too dark for single digits??

I read Harry Potter to a 6 year old because she loved it and would get anyone she could to read it to her. I was around 16 at that time and hadn't read it previously at that point.

Your view of children and their interests is skewed for some reason. Either that or you haven't read any of these books and therefore are going on what others have said. As much as war and conflict is present in the Redwall series, it's not bloody or traumatic.
Oh, I know there are kids who like it when it gets really bloody. And I didn't read Potter, only watched the films once... was not my alley.
But generally parents don't want their children reading those books (at young age). And if I look at lists "from 10 years" the closest seems to be book 6 from the "Scary Harry" series, which is a comedy, so not dark in actuality.

Maybe that's one of those US / Germany differences.

I find it amusing that all the parents who gasped and didn't want their innocent children reading these books are also the parents who have teen and young adult children that are riddled with anxiety and depression, sinking under the weight of even partial independence. I can't speak for Germany, but I'm really quite worried about a significant chunk of the teens and early to mid 20s people that I see.

However, I'm going to have to dig out my copy of Mossflower and reread it. Redwall too probably. It's been quite a while since I read them.

Mr FrugalNL

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2109 on: September 05, 2022, 11:38:27 PM »
Same! I wonder how they hold up now that I'm an adult. I used to read anything war-related I could get my hands on as a child, including Brian Jacques' books.

Oorlogswinter didn't leave much of an impression on me when I read it way back when. The plot Imma described didn't really ring a bell even though I've read the book. A few children's books that I do remember were Thea Beckman Hundred Years' War trilogy (Flemish runaway girl and later her offspring get caught up in the horrors of a bloody medieval war between England and France) and Boris by Jaap ter Haar, about a 12-year-old living through the siege of Leningrad in World War II. I think these were written for children of about ten years old and up, so arguably not quite little children, but still.

Okay, not what I consider children's books ;) I was thinking of books for ages in single digits.

Not sure why you're not considering an 8 or 9 year old to not be a child.
Either I have a problem with English, or singel digit age means under ten, so 8 and 9 would be spot on. (Though I would put the border at puberty, so roughly 12)

And Harry is a bit too dark for single digits??

I read Harry Potter to a 6 year old because she loved it and would get anyone she could to read it to her. I was around 16 at that time and hadn't read it previously at that point.

Your view of children and their interests is skewed for some reason. Either that or you haven't read any of these books and therefore are going on what others have said. As much as war and conflict is present in the Redwall series, it's not bloody or traumatic.
Oh, I know there are kids who like it when it gets really bloody. And I didn't read Potter, only watched the films once... was not my alley.
But generally parents don't want their children reading those books (at young age). And if I look at lists "from 10 years" the closest seems to be book 6 from the "Scary Harry" series, which is a comedy, so not dark in actuality.

Maybe that's one of those US / Germany differences.

Interestingly, it seems like the worse gun violence in the US gets, the more parents are trying to shelter their children from depictions of violence. Wasn't there a story about children facing expulsion from school for making finger guns somewhere? Probably an outlier but interesting nonetheless. Making finger guns and playing cowboys and Indians (as it was called then) was standard fare for children's play when I was six years old.

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2110 on: September 05, 2022, 11:47:32 PM »
What did you read as a child? Maybe I've heard of some of the books.

Strangely enough, I can't remember. I can tell you I jumped right over fairy tales and Grimm etc. Later on I got faszinated by super novas and all that other really big stuff out there. Read all the fantasy and SF stuff I could find (still not changed much). And I would carry a full backpack from the library every month.
Quote
sinking under the weight of even partial independence.

And here I thought that was because they are no allowed to leave home without parents, lest they be killed by cars, that getting in a tree is too dangerous and so on.

Quote
Northeastern front line has moved from Vysokopillya to Novovoskresens'ke over the course of two days. Pro-Russian Telegram accounts complaining about loss of front line communications and coordination for artillery support.
Sounds like they are too afraid of using unencrypted cell phones now. I am not complaining.

btw. Putin finally announced that there will be no gas anymore and... we against the west, glory and victory 
For me that looks like he has run out of options.
« Last Edit: September 05, 2022, 11:51:18 PM by LennStar »

Imma

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2111 on: September 06, 2022, 05:24:26 AM »
Same! I wonder how they hold up now that I'm an adult. I used to read anything war-related I could get my hands on as a child, including Brian Jacques' books.

Oorlogswinter didn't leave much of an impression on me when I read it way back when. The plot Imma described didn't really ring a bell even though I've read the book. A few children's books that I do remember were Thea Beckman Hundred Years' War trilogy (Flemish runaway girl and later her offspring get caught up in the horrors of a bloody medieval war between England and France) and Boris by Jaap ter Haar, about a 12-year-old living through the siege of Leningrad in World War II. I think these were written for children of about ten years old and up, so arguably not quite little children, but still.


I read all of those, too! I think I've read almost every book by Thea Beckman and own most. I was a frugal girl even as a kid, I would spend my pocketmoney buying the books the library no longer wanted (at 1 Dutch guilder each.... that was a long time ago!).  I own Boris too, it didn't appeal to me at the time, the reading level printed on the cover is AVI-7 which is indeed for kids around 10 years old. Most of Thea Beckman's books were a bit more complicated but I remember reading those in primary school, not in secondary school. I stopped reading children's novels around the time I went to secondary school.

Another favourite at the time was Evert Hartman, who among others wrote a novel from the perspective of a teenager from a nazi-supporting family and also a book about a primary school class being taken hostage by terrorists (which is a thing that happened here a couple of years before that book was written).

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2112 on: September 06, 2022, 05:30:39 AM »
It seems like Putin waited too long to play the shutting-off-the-gas card.  To me, it appears that once the first interruption happened, Europe wisely assumed that a full shutoff was in the cards, so they've been stockpiling in anticipation.

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2113 on: September 06, 2022, 05:39:03 AM »
It seems like Putin waited too long to play the shutting-off-the-gas card.  To me, it appears that once the first interruption happened, Europe wisely assumed that a full shutoff was in the cards, so they've been stockpiling in anticipation.

I'm guessing there are long term alternate energy plans in the works as well.

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2114 on: September 06, 2022, 06:44:56 AM »
It seems like Putin waited too long to play the shutting-off-the-gas card.  To me, it appears that once the first interruption happened, Europe wisely assumed that a full shutoff was in the cards, so they've been stockpiling in anticipation.
Yes, that is one half of the reason why the gas prices are so high at the moment. Everyone was scrambling to get the gas needed for winter. German gas storages are filled more(!) than ususal at this time. That was publicized 2(?) days before the sudden short maintenance was announced which lowered gas supply again. And at the end of those 3 days... Putin finally admitted what everyone was assuming anyway.

The other half are the French Nuclear Power Plants. Germany has to burn gas to produce the energy the French use more than they can produce.

I think as the West could not believe Putin would really attack, Putin also did not believe the West could really do this amount of sanction for any longer time. Quite the irony.

For the next years Liquid Gas will come from Canada for example. I highly doubt we will ever see the amount flowing through the Russian pipelines as it has before, and possibly none in 10 years. "The Russians will come!" was a terror scream for decades, and it has now be revitalized, especially in the former USSR states.
Even if Putin still wins militarily, he already lost economically. "But gas was always flowing" was the only thing that kept the addicts in Europe to him. Now the only threat left is atomic bombs, and he already tried that with no big results.

Just Joe

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2115 on: September 06, 2022, 08:32:37 AM »
Same! I wonder how they hold up now that I'm an adult. I used to read anything war-related I could get my hands on as a child, including Brian Jacques' books.

Oorlogswinter didn't leave much of an impression on me when I read it way back when. The plot Imma described didn't really ring a bell even though I've read the book. A few children's books that I do remember were Thea Beckman Hundred Years' War trilogy (Flemish runaway girl and later her offspring get caught up in the horrors of a bloody medieval war between England and France) and Boris by Jaap ter Haar, about a 12-year-old living through the siege of Leningrad in World War II. I think these were written for children of about ten years old and up, so arguably not quite little children, but still.


I read all of those, too! I think I've read almost every book by Thea Beckman and own most. I was a frugal girl even as a kid, I would spend my pocketmoney buying the books the library no longer wanted (at 1 Dutch guilder each.... that was a long time ago!).  I own Boris too, it didn't appeal to me at the time, the reading level printed on the cover is AVI-7 which is indeed for kids around 10 years old. Most of Thea Beckman's books were a bit more complicated but I remember reading those in primary school, not in secondary school. I stopped reading children's novels around the time I went to secondary school.

Another favourite at the time was Evert Hartman, who among others wrote a novel from the perspective of a teenager from a nazi-supporting family and also a book about a primary school class being taken hostage by terrorists (which is a thing that happened here a couple of years before that book was written).

American kids would benefit from reading some of those books just for the historical context. I have always enjoyed reading about history. I was close to my grandfather during my middle school years and he had participated in WWII. I wanted to understand the war so I was reading about it in middle school. What eluded me for a long time was WHY people sided with the Nazis and against the Jews. Heck, I'm still working on that somewhat. The books I read just weren't giving the cultural background I wanted.

Sounds like the books you mentioned might have provided some of that context.

Just Joe

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2116 on: September 06, 2022, 08:33:31 AM »
It seems like Putin waited too long to play the shutting-off-the-gas card.  To me, it appears that once the first interruption happened, Europe wisely assumed that a full shutoff was in the cards, so they've been stockpiling in anticipation.

I'm guessing there are long term alternate energy plans in the works as well.

I saw that the French are restarting all their nuclear power stations, even mothballed ones, by winter.

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2117 on: September 06, 2022, 09:34:08 AM »
It seems like Putin waited too long to play the shutting-off-the-gas card.  To me, it appears that once the first interruption happened, Europe wisely assumed that a full shutoff was in the cards, so they've been stockpiling in anticipation.
Yes, that is one half of the reason why the gas prices are so high at the moment. Everyone was scrambling to get the gas needed for winter. German gas storages are filled more(!) than ususal at this time. That was publicized 2(?) days before the sudden short maintenance was announced which lowered gas supply again. And at the end of those 3 days... Putin finally admitted what everyone was assuming anyway.

The other half are the French Nuclear Power Plants. Germany has to burn gas to produce the energy the French use more than they can produce.

I think as the West could not believe Putin would really attack, Putin also did not believe the West could really do this amount of sanction for any longer time. Quite the irony.

For the next years Liquid Gas will come from Canada for example. I highly doubt we will ever see the amount flowing through the Russian pipelines as it has before, and possibly none in 10 years. "The Russians will come!" was a terror scream for decades, and it has now be revitalized, especially in the former USSR states.
Even if Putin still wins militarily, he already lost economically. "But gas was always flowing" was the only thing that kept the addicts in Europe to him. Now the only threat left is atomic bombs, and he already tried that with no big results.

It looks like your LNG will come from the US.  Apparently, Canada does not have the big LNG facilities.  They are building one, but it's on the opposite side of the continent so should serve the Asian market.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LNG_Canada

Of course, some of the LNG sent from the US could come from Canada. 

I am sure selling gas to Europe will drive up the cost of Winter heating.  It will be no where near as bad as Europe is experiencing.  This is OK if it stops Putin.

The higher price of natural gas should prompt a stronger interest in reliable emission free energy.  I predict a resurgence in Nukes.

The higher price should also prompt the exploration for new sources of natural gas.

In 4-5 years, Europe will probably have forgotten that Russia was once a large gas supplier OR Russia will get their act together and begin to behave like a civilized nation.

Imma

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2118 on: September 06, 2022, 10:12:49 AM »
Same! I wonder how they hold up now that I'm an adult. I used to read anything war-related I could get my hands on as a child, including Brian Jacques' books.

Oorlogswinter didn't leave much of an impression on me when I read it way back when. The plot Imma described didn't really ring a bell even though I've read the book. A few children's books that I do remember were Thea Beckman Hundred Years' War trilogy (Flemish runaway girl and later her offspring get caught up in the horrors of a bloody medieval war between England and France) and Boris by Jaap ter Haar, about a 12-year-old living through the siege of Leningrad in World War II. I think these were written for children of about ten years old and up, so arguably not quite little children, but still.


I read all of those, too! I think I've read almost every book by Thea Beckman and own most. I was a frugal girl even as a kid, I would spend my pocketmoney buying the books the library no longer wanted (at 1 Dutch guilder each.... that was a long time ago!).  I own Boris too, it didn't appeal to me at the time, the reading level printed on the cover is AVI-7 which is indeed for kids around 10 years old. Most of Thea Beckman's books were a bit more complicated but I remember reading those in primary school, not in secondary school. I stopped reading children's novels around the time I went to secondary school.

Another favourite at the time was Evert Hartman, who among others wrote a novel from the perspective of a teenager from a nazi-supporting family and also a book about a primary school class being taken hostage by terrorists (which is a thing that happened here a couple of years before that book was written).

American kids would benefit from reading some of those books just for the historical context. I have always enjoyed reading about history. I was close to my grandfather during my middle school years and he had participated in WWII. I wanted to understand the war so I was reading about it in middle school. What eluded me for a long time was WHY people sided with the Nazis and against the Jews. Heck, I'm still working on that somewhat. The books I read just weren't giving the cultural background I wanted.

Sounds like the books you mentioned might have provided some of that context.

Yes, they would have provided that context! And some of them have probably been translated into English as well.

For me, it was never very hard to imagine why people sided with the nazi's. My grandparents lived through that time as well and I was close to them. We talked a lot about WWII.  You have to keep in mind that in the 30s, the whole world was in deep economic trouble. It was way worse than what we were going through now and the governments were failing harder than our current ones. Most countries had thriving nazi parties / movements, it wasn't just a thing in Germany. It's hard to believe now but nazi's were considered cool and intellectual in those days - the uniforms, the songs, the radical new ideas and science (it's hard to imagine now but eugenics was seen as modern science in those days). It was a meritocratic organization, a hardworking lower class man could rise up through the ranks within the party. In my country they gained quite some support among mostly the lower middle classes and farmers. Antisemitism wasn't their main selling point at that time  - even though the leaders of the party of course had always been deeply antisemitic, that wasn't true for all of their supporters. They had no idea about the Holocaust. They wanted Volkswagens and cool clothes with skulls on them.

When Germany eventually invaded in 1940, the first period wasn't that bad. The Germans saw the Dutch as their racial equals and treated us quite nicely. For many people, the occupation at first was little more than a change of government and they sort of tolerated the nazi's. Many people didn't really agree with the deportation of Jews, but thought "well, what can you do about it?". And it was dangerous to speak out. One of my grandparents, their family never supported the nazi's, but they shared a house with a family who were active Party members (their sons all died in Russia) so they couldn't speak out.  One of my other grandparents was a  fairly passive member of the resistance - they allowed some people to hide on their farm, it was arranged by a cousin who was eventually killed for their resistance membership. The third grandparent ran a soup kitchen - the soup kitchen provided much needed food to the inhabitants but it was paid for by the German occupiers. Were they collaborating by accepting a job that was paid for by Germans? Perhaps, but otherwise a lot of people might have starved. None of them supported the nazi's but as you can see they all handled the situation differently.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2119 on: September 06, 2022, 10:41:47 AM »
It seems like Putin waited too long to play the shutting-off-the-gas card.  To me, it appears that once the first interruption happened, Europe wisely assumed that a full shutoff was in the cards, so they've been stockpiling in anticipation.

I'm guessing there are long term alternate energy plans in the works as well.

I saw that the French are restarting all their nuclear power stations, even mothballed ones, by winter.
Energy independence (or at least, moving in the direction of...) that comes with zero carbon/greenhouse gas emitted?  Win-win!

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2120 on: September 06, 2022, 07:28:25 PM »
It seems like Putin waited too long to play the shutting-off-the-gas card.  To me, it appears that once the first interruption happened, Europe wisely assumed that a full shutoff was in the cards, so they've been stockpiling in anticipation.

You mean the maintenance problem that will go away as soon as Europe drops the sanctions?

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2121 on: September 06, 2022, 07:32:52 PM »
So in addition to Russian defenses in Kherson Oblast falling apart, Ukraine launched an attack in the east near Izyum. Size and scope not yet known, but allegedly they've taken two or three villages in the last 18 hours with little resistance. It's smelling like the frontline in that region is very thin. We'll see in a few days what kind of defense Russia puts together.

https://twitter.com/militarylandnet/status/1567167772727169025?s=21&t=V1XLln3HqkfmP0W1f9JkUQ

https://twitter.com/Bazinga00264477/status/1567069067441278977

https://twitter.com/zcjbrooker/status/1567169045895462913?s=21&t=CtT28NyIx3Aan3q8OqsozA

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2122 on: September 06, 2022, 09:07:22 PM »
Thanks, pecunia. I'd wondered about the comment on natural gas coming from canada when I didn't know about any export terminals that could serve the Canada/Europe route, but I didn't have the time to dig into looking into it in more detail.

Natural gas really doesn't ship well. I hope we (North America) ship Europe all the gas that the CNG terminal infrastructure on both continents will allow and am happy to pay higher prices/keep the thermostat lower as a result.

Radagast

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2123 on: September 06, 2022, 09:50:10 PM »
ANYway... I think it is interesting that Lennstar asked what kind of children's books I read, but nobody tried to refute that the leaders of the Russian special military operation show less ability at strategic thought than a children's book :D

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2124 on: September 07, 2022, 01:30:12 AM »
I don't even blame them (much).
As far as we can tell, they started the war based on wrong intelligence about the resistance capacities and were also damn unlucky. On top of being told to do that in a "diplomatic" way.
Now they are stuck in a situation where the personal available cannot be sufficient, the support for the enemy is far heavier than thought (both in Ukraine and outside help) and they are still pressed to show results.

Any sensible general would have already pushed for peace talks long ago. Problem is that sensible generals have been fired or are sensibly keeping their mouth shut.

It is the same problem in all autocracies. You only go up the ladder if you agree to the boss, if you tell him you are more intelligent than he is, you are a threat to him and you go down the window.

-----

I still think it's possible that in a few weeks the resistance in the south might crumble so much that Ukraine can push to crimea.
The Ukrainians aren't under pressure to be fast. (Quite contrary, that might put Putin into actually mobilizing his country officially.) A village here, a small town there - it adds up. And costs a lot less lives than a rushed offensive so many seemed to have expected. And then, one time nobody can predict, the defense might simply crash like a house of cards with 3 cards removed.

jinga nation

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2125 on: September 07, 2022, 06:45:41 AM »
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-russia-ukraine-war-recruits-volunteers-long-vacations-peskov-1740159
Quote
Russian President Vladimir Putin has pledged that Russians who volunteer to fight in Ukraine will be guaranteed long vacations and job security, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov recently said.

The promise of eternal sleep.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/7/7366424/
Quote
Quote from Putin: "I am sure that the Russian Federation has lost nothing since 24 February, but the main achievement is the strengthening of our sovereignty.
Russia is a sovereign state, and we will always protect our national interests by pursuing an independent policy."

Russian soldiers' lives lost means nothing to the rulers.

« Last Edit: September 07, 2022, 08:32:42 AM by jinga nation »

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2126 on: September 07, 2022, 08:35:17 AM »
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-russia-ukraine-war-recruits-volunteers-long-vacations-peskov-1740159
Quote
Russian President Vladimir Putin has pledged that Russians who volunteer to fight in Ukraine will be guaranteed long vacations and job security, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov recently said.

The promise of eternal sleep.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/7/7366424/
Quote
Quote from Putin: "I am sure that the Russian Federation has lost nothing since 24 February, but the main achievement is the strengthening of our sovereignty.
Russia is a sovereign state, and we will always protect our national interests by pursuing an independent policy."

Russian soldiers' lives lost means nothing to the rulers.
Given how often the current personnel aren't getting their promised paychecks, it'll be interesting to see how many people take Putin's offer.

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2127 on: September 07, 2022, 10:06:16 AM »
Given how often the current personnel aren't getting their promised paychecks, it'll be interesting to see how many people take Putin's offer.
That's only because the devilish nazi postal service in Ukraine who sabotage the freedom force!

PeteD01

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2128 on: September 07, 2022, 01:42:36 PM »
Looks like the Special Military Operation is running into some issues with disorderly retreats by RU at least in some spots - but no worries, it´s just a Special Military Panic:

https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict

Viewer discretion advised (RU POW´s faces are seen in some of the visual material as well as dead and injured RU soldiers)


dignam

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2129 on: September 08, 2022, 07:01:47 AM »
Sounds like the ruskies are getting absolutely routed in a few areas near Izyum.  There is no way they can keep sustaining losses this big for much longer, unless they fully mobilize at home with forced conscription, etc...which I think Putin vowed he would not do.

I've seen some (very graphic) videos of russians attempting a river crossing with pontoon bridges, only to get ambushed.

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2130 on: September 08, 2022, 07:36:51 AM »
New videos? Or the ones from several month ago from a river curve getting shelled.

This war is a bit like those "teen gets bullied, meets destined grand master of whatever and slowly beats back the bullies" movies. I hope it really end that way! Unlikely it will end this year though.

Looks like the Special Military Operation is running into some issues with disorderly retreats by RU at least in some spots - but no worries, it´s just a Special Military Panic:

https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict

Viewer discretion advised (RU POW´s faces are seen in some of the visual material as well as dead and injured RU soldiers)
I can't see it without giving my date of birth (any 5 year old could do that??) which also would mean targeted advertising.
Such a coupling is illegal, but who cares, right? Not the Irish data protection office with their one half day employee (I think it's full time sicne last year though) that has to control all those multinational megacorps.
« Last Edit: September 08, 2022, 07:39:34 AM by LennStar »

dignam

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2131 on: September 08, 2022, 07:51:50 AM »
Presumably from within the last week.  It appeared they were hastily moving east/south across the river due to the Ukrainian push.

Anyone follow malcontent news?  They seem pretty invested into the conflict, and from what I can tell, they do their research and make it a point to note if things are still unconfirmed.

Travis

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2132 on: September 08, 2022, 06:20:42 PM »
Presumably from within the last week.  It appeared they were hastily moving east/south across the river due to the Ukrainian push.

Anyone follow malcontent news?  They seem pretty invested into the conflict, and from what I can tell, they do their research and make it a point to note if things are still unconfirmed.

I'm on Discord with one of their analysts every few hours.

Not much new from Kherson today, but Ukrainian units confirmed as far northeast as Borivske and possibly within sight of the Oskil river.

PeteD01

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2133 on: September 09, 2022, 11:26:25 AM »
Lieutenant General Andrei Sychevoi, General in command RU’s “West” Group (Kharkiv, Izium area) was apparently captured yesterday. He would be the highest ranking officer captured so far and his capture would be a serious blow to the RU effort in the area.


« Last Edit: September 09, 2022, 11:33:08 AM by PeteD01 »

Travis

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2134 on: September 09, 2022, 11:32:12 AM »


Not the same guy. The general is completely bald on top.

Ukrainian units confirmed to have reached the river and the outskirts of Kupyansk. Russian forces in Izyum appear to be fixed in place from southern attacks.  Saw photos and videos of enough captured equipment to outfit a couple mechanized battalions to include mobile SAMs, C2 vehicles, and a counterbattery radar.

PeteD01

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2135 on: September 09, 2022, 11:35:02 AM »


Not the same guy. The general is completely bald on top.

Ukrainian units confirmed to have reached the river and the outskirts of Kupyansk. Russian forces in Izyum appear to be fixed in place from southern attacks.  Saw photos and videos of enough captured equipment to outfit a couple mechanized battalions to include mobile SAMs, C2 vehicles, and a counterbattery radar.

Too bad - but it probably doesn´t make much of a difference at this point.

Travis

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2136 on: September 09, 2022, 11:40:22 AM »


Not the same guy. The general is completely bald on top.

Ukrainian units confirmed to have reached the river and the outskirts of Kupyansk. Russian forces in Izyum appear to be fixed in place from southern attacks.  Saw photos and videos of enough captured equipment to outfit a couple mechanized battalions to include mobile SAMs, C2 vehicles, and a counterbattery radar.

Too bad - but it probably doesn´t make much of a difference at this point.

A Lieutenant Colonel taken prisoner is nothing to sneeze at. Probably still the highest ranking POW yet.

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2137 on: September 09, 2022, 01:54:46 PM »
If it's the real Western Commander it's the highest Russian POW since WWII (they said).

PeteD01

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2138 on: September 10, 2022, 08:23:28 AM »
RU defensive lines are collapsing at a rate and scale that are likely experienced as potentially regime destabilizing by the Kremlin.

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2139 on: September 10, 2022, 08:45:23 AM »
I'm seeing reports that Ukraine is in Kupyansk and controls the whole west bank of that river all the way down to the outskirts of Izyum.  Certainly Russia's supply lines to Izyum are cut, and they're running out of exit routes--they only have an escape to the southeast, from what I've heard, and that window may be closing.

Radagast

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2140 on: September 10, 2022, 09:15:40 AM »
Russia is getting stomped. I had expected something like this to happen back in March, but they managed to retreat in fairly good order back then. I guess Russian minds were still fresh in March, but the existential futility of the war is finally starting to sink in. I expect Ukraine to have taken back essentially the whole country before next summer, so things are just getting started. This will be repeated again and again over much larger areas in the coming months.

If Ukraine also wants to seize the Russian Black Sea Coast to protect Ukrainian speakers, create a NovoUkraine, and defend against Russian expansion that is fine with me.

TomTX

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2141 on: September 10, 2022, 10:48:03 AM »
I'm seeing reports that Ukraine is in Kupyansk and controls the whole west bank of that river all the way down to the outskirts of Izyum.  Certainly Russia's supply lines to Izyum are cut, and they're running out of exit routes--they only have an escape to the southeast, from what I've heard, and that window may be closing.
Liveuamap is showing Izyum in Ukrainian control, along with the ~3km East of Izyum all the way to the river.

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2142 on: September 10, 2022, 12:12:50 PM »
Russia is getting stomped. I had expected something like this to happen back in March, but they managed to retreat in fairly good order back then. I guess Russian minds were still fresh in March, but the existential futility of the war is finally starting to sink in. I expect Ukraine to have taken back essentially the whole country before next summer, so things are just getting started. This will be repeated again and again over much larger areas in the coming months.

If Ukraine also wants to seize the Russian Black Sea Coast to protect Ukrainian speakers, create a NovoUkraine, and defend against Russian expansion that is fine with me.

I just loved the phrase, "The existential futility of the war is finally starting to sink in."

The Russians are sending another batch of old equipment to the war.  They are pulling in the dregs of their society.  They give their allied soldiers from the breakaway republics rifles of WW1 vintage, body armor and helmets that can not stop bullets and do not pay the men.  The training of troops is little to non existent.  Some are said to be simply seized from the streets and sent to the front lines. North Korea is said to becoming their weapons supplier.  Are they becoming a ragtag army?

Travis

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2143 on: September 10, 2022, 06:25:16 PM »
I'm seeing reports that Ukraine is in Kupyansk and controls the whole west bank of that river all the way down to the outskirts of Izyum.  Certainly Russia's supply lines to Izyum are cut, and they're running out of exit routes--they only have an escape to the southeast, from what I've heard, and that window may be closing.
Liveuamap is showing Izyum in Ukrainian control, along with the ~3km East of Izyum all the way to the river.

It's chaos right now. Ukrainian troops are moving so quickly that nobody knows where the front is anymore. Ukraine is staying tight-lipped about their positions and mentioned a media blackout, but Russian Telegram channels are talking about Izyum and Lyman having fallen, evacuating Vovchansk and Svatove, and worried that Ukraine is coming for Sev-Don next. Russian troops and administrators are clogging the border crossings to get out. Arestovich (shit talker that he is) quipped last night that they're taking more prisoners than they know what to do with. Don't get your hopes up that the entire 1st Guards Tank Army surrendered, but I've seen enough POW capture videos this weekend to equal about 150 prisoners.

Russia has lost a brigade's worth of equipment either captured intact or destroyed (just in photos). Not just tanks and IFVs, but radars, radio trucks, mobile SAMs, and mountains of supplies.

Up to 5000 sq km recaptured and setting the clock back to late March in this sector.  This offensive started on Monday.

waltworks

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2144 on: September 10, 2022, 09:26:13 PM »
For all the folks waiting for the Hollywood movie version of war... you got it, I think. The last 2 days have been... crazy.

I thought the "don't send slaves to fight free people" slogan was corny, but I guess maybe it's appropriate here.

-W

dignam

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2145 on: September 11, 2022, 07:44:34 AM »
I hear Russia is now the biggest material supplier to Ukraine with the latest push to Izyum...only half joking.  The apparent huge numbers of captured/abandoned equipment, if true, is mind boggling.

PeteD01

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2146 on: September 11, 2022, 12:51:28 PM »
Accordin to some Twitter sources, Putin is in Sochi and has just cancelled a meeting with military leaders.

https://twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1569001649766793216


Edit: Putin has a bunker in Sochi and bunkers tend to be windowless. Make of that what you want...
« Last Edit: September 11, 2022, 12:59:30 PM by PeteD01 »

Travis

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2147 on: September 11, 2022, 03:00:29 PM »
I hear Russia is now the biggest material supplier to Ukraine with the latest push to Izyum...only half joking.  The apparent huge numbers of captured/abandoned equipment, if true, is mind boggling.

Always was. 1500 vehicles captured by Ukraine - before this weekend.

https://twitter.com/arslon_xudosi/status/1568876740088315906?s=46&t=LQK7kGCADtcbIXv2dzHSrA

https://twitter.com/livfaustdiejung/status/1568726055120420865?s=21&t=wTN_vegIs9h4aY4mgUJXmA


Russia's withdrawal from Izyum filmed by drone a couple days ago. No armored vehicles in the convoy.

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1568910178556280835?s=21&t=wrrxG6PpQMoaRi6BCAM2GQ

Just Joe

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2148 on: September 12, 2022, 01:49:06 PM »
RU defensive lines are collapsing at a rate and scale that are likely experienced as potentially regime destabilizing by the Kremlin.

"Moscow Municipal Lawmakers Demand Putin's Resignation"

Naturally they were summoned to the police station.

"Municipal deputies in the Moscow district of Lomonosovsky on Sept. 8 posted an appeal on the district's website where they claimed that Putin's "outdated" views have thrown Russia back into the Cold War era. The local deputies said the war has forced many smart people to leave Russia, adding that it has now hindered the country from developing.

"The rhetoric that you and your subordinates are using has been riddled with intolerance and aggression for a long time, which in the end effectively threw our country back into the Cold War era. Russia has again begun to be feared and hated, we again threaten the whole world with nuclear weapons," the appeal read.

"In connection with the foregoing, we ask you to relieve yourself of your post due to the fact that your views, your management model are hopelessly outdated and hinder the development of Russia and its human potential," it stated."

https://www.ibtimes.com/moscow-lawmakers-demand-putin-resign-over-hopelessly-outdated-views-that-hinder-russias-growth-3611697

"A similar appeal was made earlier last week when municipal deputies from the Smolninsky District Council in St. Petersburg, Putin's hometown, issued a statement calling on the State Duma to remove the president from power. The deputies also urged the Russian parliament to charge Putin with treason over his unprovoked invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, leading to a massive loss of life and hindering the growth of the national economy."

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #2149 on: September 13, 2022, 07:34:43 AM »
There was another mysterious death of a high level crony. And I've seen articles reporting that there's criticism of Putin within Russia for opening a giant ferris wheel while their army was getting their assk kicked in Ukraine.

Anyone else think of "Nero fiddles while Rome burns"? I expect that we're watching the downfall of Putin. May he fall hard.