Ukraine

[LennStar]

Ukraine might have severely damaged another A-50 "AWACS" airplane.

[Just Joe]

The SUN had a video on YouTube showing a large four engine transport going down. One engine was on fire. Wasn't sure how that disabled the plane as a whole but maybe it wrecked the controls too?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9OUch6Y37X0

[zolotiyeruki]

Ukraine might have severely damaged another A-50 "AWACS" airplane.

There's been a bunch of action over the last 48 hours.  Multiple refineries and oil depots hit, a refurbishment facility for the A-50 hit (with potentially two A-50's), and some incursion into Russian territory by some non-Ukrainian-military groups.  It looks like Russia managed to destroy a Patriot launcher for the first time.  The US military found another $300 million in the couch cushions, so they're sending another tranche of missiles.

And a Czech-led consortium has assembled $800 million to supply Ukraine with a whole lotta artillery shells, with deliveries expected to start in the next couple weeks.

[GuitarStv]

So like . . . the sanctions against Russia have been ineffective then, right?  I remember when this war started everyone was predicting that Russia's economy would be crippled.  But they're expected to grow faster than the G7 nations this year.

[Cawl]

Regarding Republicans, you guys are trying to use Neocon talking points on people who have rejected Neoconservativism. People saw how that philosophy worked out in the Iraq War.

The neoconservatism that supported the Iraq war was about remaking a dictatorship into a democracy. Supplying arms to Ukraine is preventing a democracy from being taken over by a dictator.

.
Very good point - Comparing apples and oranges.  I am slowly beginning to recognize more and more "Whataboutisms" that just don't hold up under even my own ignorant scrutiny.

Just the same - What happened to the neocons?  They ruled the Republican roost just a few years ago.  How have they been silenced by the MAGAs?

They moved to the Democrat party. Bill Bristol considers himself to be a Democrat since Trump was president

[zolotiyeruki]

It's easy to "grow" an economy when you're draining your national reserves, and when you're cooking the books...

[GuitarStv]

It's easy to "grow" an economy when you're draining your national reserves, and when you're cooking the books...

The IMF says Russia's economy is going to grow 2.6% this year - https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-sanctions-economy-1.7141305, and they're going to do 240 billion in trade with China alone.

[ChpBstrd]

So like . . . the sanctions against Russia have been ineffective then, right?  I remember when this war started everyone was predicting that Russia's economy would be crippled.  But they're expected to grow faster than the G7 nations this year.

I struggle to find any example in history when sanctions have led to regime change or a policy pivot by a foreign country. It seems we believe sanctions will work despite them never having accomplished anything in the past.

There's a solid argument that sanctions reduce the business class in the targeted country and increase their dependency on government, making them less able to influence policy. Thus they help dictators consolidate their grip on the economy while neutralizing the opposition.

[Dancin'Dog]

It's easy to "grow" an economy when you're draining your national reserves, and when you're cooking the books...

The IMF says Russia's economy is going to grow 2.6% this year - https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-sanctions-economy-1.7141305, and they're going to do 240 billion in trade with China alone.

That article makes me think Ukraine needs to target Russian oil production & shipping facilities & equipment.  Stop the oil flow & stop the cash flow.

[LennStar]

It's easy to "grow" an economy when you're draining your national reserves, and when you're cooking the books...

The IMF says Russia's economy is going to grow 2.6% this year - https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-sanctions-economy-1.7141305, and they're going to do 240 billion in trade with China alone.

Yes, that happens in a war spending time.
But Russia is losing reservers at a fast rate, and proced stuff is of less quality and more expensive than it would have been without sanctions.

But whoever said the economy would collapse in a few month because of the sanctions is stupid and you should stop listening.
The US blockade (not just a few sanctions) of Cuba have made the country needlessy poor and killed many thousands of Cubans but they didn't "collapse" the economy even though that was the goal.
The sanctions never intended to collapse Russian economy. 
The intention was to make war more costly, and while that hasn't been such a success as intended because of China and lacking oversight (Somehow exports to Russias neighbors have increased dramatically for some goods, in some areas people must have more washing machines than hands by now.)

[reeshau]

I think we're headed more for a dystopia in the style of Ready Player One.

Ready Player One and WALL-E (mounds of refuse, willfully helpless humans, throw away consumerism).

I saw the movie before I read the book.  The book is, of course, so much better.  And so much darker.  Ready Player Two, even more so.

[zolotiyeruki]

That article makes me think Ukraine needs to target Russian oil production & shipping facilities & equipment.  Stop the oil flow & stop the cash flow.

And indeed they are.  And to tie the subjects back together, it looks like it'll take Russia longer than anticipate to repair the earlier-attacked refineries, thanks in large part to ....sanctions!

[Cawl]

Leaks from the French Ministry of Defense.

https://www.marianne.net/monde/europe/guerre-en-ukraine-endurance-russe-echec-de-la-contre-offensive-ce-que-cache-le-virage-de-macron

Archive (https://archive.is/rPZ2s)

They don't believe that Ukraine can win. Ukraine will need 35,000 new troops a month for survival. Ukraine is also unable to build fortifications like the Surovikin line because of a lack of equipment and materials.

[pecunia]

Leaks from the French Ministry of Defense.

https://www.marianne.net/monde/europe/guerre-en-ukraine-endurance-russe-echec-de-la-contre-offensive-ce-que-cache-le-virage-de-macron

Archive (https://archive.is/rPZ2s)

They don't believe that Ukraine can win. Ukraine will need 35,000 new troops a month for survival. Ukraine is also unable to build fortifications like the Surovikin line because of a lack of equipment and materials.

I didn't see the part about Ukraine needing 35,000 new troops a month in the translated link.  Maybe it was linked to your link.

I do believe the sanctions work.  The sanctions I am talking about are the Ukrainian sanctions.  When Ukrainians blow up Russian oil supplies and refineries, they are sanctioning Russian oil.  It may not be permanent, but they can't sell oil they cannot ship.  They cannot use that oil for the "Special Military Operation."  Unlike the financial sanctions, human resources are needed to repair / rebuild such sanctions.

Let's imagine the worst.  What if Russia wins this war?  Will the people who fled the country go back?  Will the European market return to purchasing Russian oil and gas?  Will Russia need to spend trillions of dollars rebuilding Ukraine?  Will Russia be able to develop the gas fields in Ukraine which it covets?  If Russia does begin to rebuild Ukraine, won't that take needed resources that have long been needed for the crumbling infrastructure of Russia?  Unless they kill the bulk of the Ukrainian population, won't they be facing guerrilla  fighters for many years to come?  How will they face a Europe that now appears largely united and hostile to Russia?

I just kind of wonder.  What will they have really won?

How long can Putin keep his people subjugated in this modern age?  It appears he has to keep tightening the social control screws and is quickly returning to the techniques of Stalin.

Who may have really won?  China.  China is in the catbird's seat when it comes to any negotiations with Russia.  Russia is dependent on China today and not the other way around.

[Cawl]

Leaks from the French Ministry of Defense.

https://www.marianne.net/monde/europe/guerre-en-ukraine-endurance-russe-echec-de-la-contre-offensive-ce-que-cache-le-virage-de-macron

Archive (https://archive.is/rPZ2s)

They don't believe that Ukraine can win. Ukraine will need 35,000 new troops a month for survival. Ukraine is also unable to build fortifications like the Surovikin line because of a lack of equipment and materials.

I didn't see the part about Ukraine needing 35,000 new troops a month in the translated link.  Maybe it was linked to your link.

I do believe the sanctions work.  The sanctions I am talking about are the Ukrainian sanctions.  When Ukrainians blow up Russian oil supplies and refineries, they are sanctioning Russian oil.  It may not be permanent, but they can't sell oil they cannot ship.  They cannot use that oil for the "Special Military Operation."  Unlike the financial sanctions, human resources are needed to repair / rebuild such sanctions.

Let's imagine the worst.  What if Russia wins this war?  Will the people who fled the country go back?  Will the European market return to purchasing Russian oil and gas?  Will Russia need to spend trillions of dollars rebuilding Ukraine?  Will Russia be able to develop the gas fields in Ukraine which it covets?  If Russia does begin to rebuild Ukraine, won't that take needed resources that have long been needed for the crumbling infrastructure of Russia?  Unless they kill the bulk of the Ukrainian population, won't they be facing guerrilla  fighters for many years to come?  How will they face a Europe that now appears largely united and hostile to Russia?

I just kind of wonder.  What will they have really won?

How long can Putin keep his people subjugated in this modern age?  It appears he has to keep tightening the social control screws and is quickly returning to the techniques of Stalin.

Who may have really won?  China.  China is in the catbird's seat when it comes to any negotiations with Russia.  Russia is dependent on China today and not the other way around.

Machine Translation
The combativity of Ukrainian soldiers is deeply affected », mentions a prospective report on’year 2024.« Zelensky would need 35,000 men a month, he n’en is not recruiting half, while Putin pickaxe in a pool of 30,000 monthly volunteers », a soldier returned from Kiev.

[pecunia]

Leaks from the French Ministry of Defense.

https://www.marianne.net/monde/europe/guerre-en-ukraine-endurance-russe-echec-de-la-contre-offensive-ce-que-cache-le-virage-de-macron

Archive (https://archive.is/rPZ2s)

They don't believe that Ukraine can win. Ukraine will need 35,000 new troops a month for survival. Ukraine is also unable to build fortifications like the Surovikin line because of a lack of equipment and materials.

I didn't see the part about Ukraine needing 35,000 new troops a month in the translated link.  Maybe it was linked to your link.

I do believe the sanctions work.  The sanctions I am talking about are the Ukrainian sanctions.  When Ukrainians blow up Russian oil supplies and refineries, they are sanctioning Russian oil.  It may not be permanent, but they can't sell oil they cannot ship.  They cannot use that oil for the "Special Military Operation."  Unlike the financial sanctions, human resources are needed to repair / rebuild such sanctions.

Let's imagine the worst.  What if Russia wins this war?  Will the people who fled the country go back?  Will the European market return to purchasing Russian oil and gas?  Will Russia need to spend trillions of dollars rebuilding Ukraine?  Will Russia be able to develop the gas fields in Ukraine which it covets?  If Russia does begin to rebuild Ukraine, won't that take needed resources that have long been needed for the crumbling infrastructure of Russia?  Unless they kill the bulk of the Ukrainian population, won't they be facing guerrilla  fighters for many years to come?  How will they face a Europe that now appears largely united and hostile to Russia?

I just kind of wonder.  What will they have really won?

How long can Putin keep his people subjugated in this modern age?  It appears he has to keep tightening the social control screws and is quickly returning to the techniques of Stalin.

Who may have really won?  China.  China is in the catbird's seat when it comes to any negotiations with Russia.  Russia is dependent on China today and not the other way around.

Machine Translation
The combativity of Ukrainian soldiers is deeply affected », mentions a prospective report on’year 2024.« Zelensky would need 35,000 men a month, he n’en is not recruiting half, while Putin pickaxe in a pool of 30,000 monthly volunteers », a soldier returned from Kiev.

OK - It' always hard to argue with a French speaking machine.

So -35,000 a month.  Why so many?  Are that many dying?  35,000 X 12 = 420,000  That's lot of casualties.

Here's today's list of Russian casualties.

13.03.2024

    Tanks — 6752 (+5)
    Armored fighting vehicle — 12921 (+20)
    Artillery systems — 10554 (+32)
    MLRS — 1017 (+1)
    Anti-aircraft warfare — 715 (+2)
    Planes — 347
    Helicopters — 325
    UAV — 8205 (+22)
    Cruise missiles — 1919
    Ships (boats) — 26
    Submarines — 1
    Cars and cisterns — 13932 (+62)
    Special equipment — 1699 (+8)
    Military personnel — aprx. 426870 people (+980)

Looks like Mr.Putin has to get maybe 800/ day X 30 days per month = 24,000 each month to replace his losses.

35,000 < 24,000  Good thing he doesn't care about his troops or his potential victory could be painful.

I do hope the French speaking machine s wrong.

[Cawl]

Leaks from the French Ministry of Defense.

https://www.marianne.net/monde/europe/guerre-en-ukraine-endurance-russe-echec-de-la-contre-offensive-ce-que-cache-le-virage-de-macron

Archive (https://archive.is/rPZ2s)

They don't believe that Ukraine can win. Ukraine will need 35,000 new troops a month for survival. Ukraine is also unable to build fortifications like the Surovikin line because of a lack of equipment and materials.

I didn't see the part about Ukraine needing 35,000 new troops a month in the translated link.  Maybe it was linked to your link.

I do believe the sanctions work.  The sanctions I am talking about are the Ukrainian sanctions.  When Ukrainians blow up Russian oil supplies and refineries, they are sanctioning Russian oil.  It may not be permanent, but they can't sell oil they cannot ship.  They cannot use that oil for the "Special Military Operation."  Unlike the financial sanctions, human resources are needed to repair / rebuild such sanctions.

Let's imagine the worst.  What if Russia wins this war?  Will the people who fled the country go back?  Will the European market return to purchasing Russian oil and gas?  Will Russia need to spend trillions of dollars rebuilding Ukraine?  Will Russia be able to develop the gas fields in Ukraine which it covets?  If Russia does begin to rebuild Ukraine, won't that take needed resources that have long been needed for the crumbling infrastructure of Russia?  Unless they kill the bulk of the Ukrainian population, won't they be facing guerrilla  fighters for many years to come?  How will they face a Europe that now appears largely united and hostile to Russia?

I just kind of wonder.  What will they have really won?

How long can Putin keep his people subjugated in this modern age?  It appears he has to keep tightening the social control screws and is quickly returning to the techniques of Stalin.

Who may have really won?  China.  China is in the catbird's seat when it comes to any negotiations with Russia.  Russia is dependent on China today and not the other way around.

Machine Translation
The combativity of Ukrainian soldiers is deeply affected », mentions a prospective report on’year 2024.« Zelensky would need 35,000 men a month, he n’en is not recruiting half, while Putin pickaxe in a pool of 30,000 monthly volunteers », a soldier returned from Kiev.

OK - It' always hard to argue with a French speaking machine.

So -35,000 a month.  Why so many?  Are that many dying?  35,000 X 12 = 420,000  That's lot of casualties.

Here's today's list of Russian casualties.

13.03.2024

    Tanks — 6752 (+5)
    Armored fighting vehicle — 12921 (+20)
    Artillery systems — 10554 (+32)
    MLRS — 1017 (+1)
    Anti-aircraft warfare — 715 (+2)
    Planes — 347
    Helicopters — 325
    UAV — 8205 (+22)
    Cruise missiles — 1919
    Ships (boats) — 26
    Submarines — 1
    Cars and cisterns — 13932 (+62)
    Special equipment — 1699 (+8)
    Military personnel — aprx. 426870 people (+980)

Looks like Mr.Putin has to get maybe 800/ day X 30 days per month = 24,000 each month to replace his losses.

35,000 < 24,000  Good thing he doesn't care about his troops or his potential victory could be painful.

I do hope the French speaking machine s wrong.

Ukraine requires 35,000 new troops each month. Right now they are only getting half that. Russia is getting a pool of 30,000 new troops each month. This allows them to rotate units off the front line.

[zolotiyeruki]

Ukraine requires 35,000 new troops each month. Right now they are only getting half that. Russia is getting a pool of 30,000 new troops each month. This allows them to rotate units off the front line.

How do you square that with the reports that the casualty ratios are 7 or 8:1 in favor of Ukraine?

[pecunia]

Ukraine requires 35,000 new troops each month. Right now they are only getting half that. Russia is getting a pool of 30,000 new troops each month. This allows them to rotate units off the front line.

How do you square that with the reports that the casualty ratios are 7 or 8:1 in favor of Ukraine?

Once a while ago, I was taught that people can lie and cheat with statistics.  Later on I learned about "fake news."  How does one say fake news in French? fausses nouvelles  Maybe that 35,000 statistic is fausses nouvelles.

[LennStar]

Maybe Ukraine wants 35K for troop rotation and so on. Something the Russians are not really concerned about anyway.
That is the reason for the back and fore about increased recruitment in Ukraine.
But don't forget that increasing draft is not only - understandably - unpopular but also endangers the economic base of the country. Every soldier is someone that consumes instead of producing.

Also don't forget that soldiers should get training. EU plans to train 30K this year. The training may not be as extensive as for normal soldiers, but it surely is a lot better as what the Russian meat gets - which is one reason for the loss rate difference.
For comparison: the whole German Bundeswehr has 180K soldiers, and yearly fluctuation is less than 20K.
If we train 5K on top it means we train 25% above our normal capacity.

[Tyson]

Didn't we establish earlier in this thread that Cawl was spreading Russian propaganda?

[Sibley]

Came across this on reddit.

#1: phone call between Macron and Putin, 6 days before the invasion:
https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/1bday80/this_phone_call_between_putin_and_macron_4_days/

#2: phone call between Zelensky and Macron, 4 hours before the invasion:
https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/1beolfb/zelensky_and_macrons_phone_call_6_hours_before/

#3: Zelensky called Macron to inform him the invasion started:
https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/1bdsfkm/zelenskys_phone_call_to_macron_to_inform_him_that/

Context that the OP posted on one of the videos:
"For context, this is from a documentary called « Un Président, l’Europe et la guerre » (A President, Europe and war). Cameras were allowed to follow Macron and his team for 6 months (January to June 2022). The documentary was initially about France taking over the Presidency of the EU Council for these 6 months but since the war started in that time frame, it became the behind the scenes of what went down in regard to the invasion.

I already shared these 2 videos of other phone calls: Putin and Macron & Zelensky and Macron but the full thing can be watched here, for those who are interested to see more. It’s a must-watch imo, it’s not often we get to see behind the scene footages like this, especially in such a tense historical context."

https://gofile.io/d/a4w7wy  <--link for the full documentary, a file sharing site of some sort. I was able to download it, it does play, and my antivirus hasn't freaked out. I haven't watched it all yet, but skipping through it seems like there are English subtitles.

[Cawl]

Ukraine requires 35,000 new troops each month. Right now they are only getting half that. Russia is getting a pool of 30,000 new troops each month. This allows them to rotate units off the front line.

How do you square that with the reports that the casualty ratios are 7 or 8:1 in favor of Ukraine?

You've been getting cooked data. Dressed up for propaganda purposes.

[Cawl]

Didn't we establish earlier in this thread that Cawl was spreading Russian propaganda?

So far no one has taken issue with the news outlet nor the idea of a "leak" from the French military. Nor has anyone refuted these leaks.

[LennStar]

Ukraine requires 35,000 new troops each month. Right now they are only getting half that. Russia is getting a pool of 30,000 new troops each month. This allows them to rotate units off the front line.

How do you square that with the reports that the casualty ratios are 7 or 8:1 in favor of Ukraine?

You've been getting cooked data. Dressed up for propaganda purposes.

Not like the lupenreine truth from the Russian Army? :D :D :D

Too bad that only Germans can really appreciate my joke.

Putting the joke aside, to prevent confusions, those rates are for the defensive battle of e.g. Avdijivka, the average is more 1:3. (In the summer offensive it was about 1:1, which is phenomenal for someone attacking the thickest minefields ever seen without enough of the needed gear and lacking air suport.)

[pecunia]

Didn't we establish earlier in this thread that Cawl was spreading Russian propaganda?

So far no one has taken issue with the news outlet nor the idea of a "leak" from the French military. Nor has anyone refuted these leaks.

I think you've stirred that pot about as far as you can. 

[Cawl]

Didn't we establish earlier in this thread that Cawl was spreading Russian propaganda?

So far no one has taken issue with the news outlet nor the idea of a "leak" from the French military. Nor has anyone refuted these leaks.

I think you've stirred that pot about as far as you can.

I will go relax then.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

The first step in fixing flawed sanctions is recognizing the problem.  Note despite this article's focus, many European countries are doing the same thing as the UK.  And there are other countries besides Azerbaijan performing this sanctions-laundering (my term).  But it provides a direct and clear illustration, which is sometimes needed to crystalize action.  I hope sanctions against Russia get fixed.

Car industry insists 2,000% increase in sales to Azerbaijan has nothing to do with Russia

Sky News analysis found that over precisely the same period as British car exports to Azerbaijan rose sharply, there was a near-simultaneous rise in car exports from Azerbaijan to Russia.

https://news.sky.com/story/car-industry-insists-2000-increase-in-sales-to-azerbaijan-has-nothing-to-with-russia-13097685

[LennStar]

At least Azerbeijani truckers make a good profit.

Anyone wants to bet if Russia manages to lose 1000 tanks in the first 3 month of this year? (reach 7000, since 6000 was very close to New Years if I am not mistaken)

On less savory news, Ukraine has real roubles holding the lines with the sparse artilley support. They even had to bring in the Western Tanks.

Let's hope the mud season gives them enough of a breather that they can harden the lines. In half a year the production should be up at least a bit.

Too bad they can't counterattack because of this, I imagine Russia must be pretty pressed for tanks and IFV by now. They have already lost more than a year of production and already tapping into the lower half of storage.

And I really hope our Chancellor get's his arse around to supplying Taurus. A few more smoking accidents at refineries and ammo depots can't hurt.

[zolotiyeruki]

It seems like not too long ago Rasputitsa was the enemy, as Ukraine was on the offensive.  Now we're hoping for it to come sooner, because Russia is pushing.

As for hitting refineries, it seems like Ukraine is doing a decent job on their own, even without Taurus.

I feel like Ukraine needs some indigenous anti-radar drones and home-on-jam drones, for taking out Russia's anti-air defenses and EW systems.  They've put the AGM-88's to good use in the past, but those are expensive and require a jet to launch them.

[pecunia]

It seems like not too long ago Rasputitsa was the enemy, as Ukraine was on the offensive.  Now we're hoping for it to come sooner, because Russia is pushing.

As for hitting refineries, it seems like Ukraine is doing a decent job on their own, even without Taurus.

I feel like Ukraine needs some indigenous anti-radar drones and home-on-jam drones, for taking out Russia's anti-air defenses and EW systems.  They've put the AGM-88's to good use in the past, but those are expensive and require a jet to launch them.

They keep saying they need shells.  I hope the munitions factories in the US have kept production going realizing that the politicians will eventually bypass the roadblock.

[Travis]

European trade with Kazakhstan was up 1500% last year. Stuff is still getting into Russia, but it just costs more due to taking longer routes. Railcars and commercial aircraft are continuing to degrade, and automotive costs are through the roof. Saw a report yesterday that loans for new cars are at like 24% because the Russian economy is getting squeezed.

Depending on who is counting, Russia has lost at least 10% of its refining capacity in the last month or so. The kind of damage being inflicted takes months to repair.

Perun's latest video detailed how foreign arms sales coming out of Russia have pretty much crashed. The only stuff going out now is fulfilling some older contracts and whatever Russia is selling to Iran and China. It's a big deal because selling weapons abroad is pretty much the only way they can afford anything new for their own use.

EU members are pooling their piggy banks and appear to have found the money to buy 1.5 million artillery shells from various undisclosed sources, with delivery between now and June. 

Lindsey Graham had a meeting with Zelensky in Ukraine yesterday and more or less said "We're with you, supporting you will prevent a war between NATO and Russia, but I voted against helping you because Trump told me not to. Also you need to mobilize your entire adult male population and keep slugging it out whether we help you or not."

They keep saying they need shells.  I hope the munitions factories in the US have kept production going realizing that the politicians will eventually bypass the roadblock.

The DoD put out a press release a couple days ago saying that if these budget issues aren't fixed, artillery production will cap at 76k shells per month where our goal is 100k by the end of the year.

[maizefolk]

It's fascinating how the normal stereotypes between America and Europe are reversed when it comes to munitions. The EU appears to mostly buys shells from private companies, while in the USA our armed forces own a lot of the factories directly and can directly invest in scaling up manufacturing and production.

[pecunia]

It's fascinating how the normal stereotypes between America and Europe are reversed when it comes to munitions. The EU appears to mostly buys shells from private companies, while in the USA our armed forces own a lot of the factories directly and can directly invest in scaling up manufacturing and production.

Sometimes direct ownership or services provided by government may be best.  I can see the possibility of war profiteering otherwise.  War profiteering gives you less bang for the buck.

[Tyson]

It's fascinating how the normal stereotypes between America and Europe are reversed when it comes to munitions. The EU appears to mostly buys shells from private companies, while in the USA our armed forces own a lot of the factories directly and can directly invest in scaling up manufacturing and production.

Sometimes direct ownership or services provided by government may be best.  I can see the possibility of war profiteering otherwise.  War profiteering gives you less bang for the buck.

This was illustrated to hilarious effect by the character of Milo Minderbender in the novel Catch-22 by Joseph Heller.

[dividendman]

It looks like Rep. Greene has filed a motion to oust Speaker Johnson. Maybe the new Speaker will be more amenable to a floor vote for more aid to Ukraine.

[reeshau]

It looks like Rep. Greene has filed a motion to oust Speaker Johnson. Maybe the new Speaker will be more amenable to a floor vote for more aid to Ukraine.

She filed it, but didn't move for a vote; that would be the real trigger.  She called it a "warning."

You would think that a parent had figured out by now that ou don't make idle threats.  Repeated threats dilute the potency of what you say.

[sonofsven]

It looks like Rep. Greene has filed a motion to oust Speaker Johnson. Maybe the new Speaker will be more amenable to a floor vote for more aid to Ukraine.

I imagine negotiations are ongoing with certain Democrats to support Johnson in return for a Ukraine vote. In fact, I bet Johnson has kept this control of a vote in his back pocket for just such an "emergency": protection from the extremist Freedom Caucas wing of the Republican Party.
Because what are Ukranian lives worth compared to him staying in power?
/s

[MustacheAndaHalf]

Republicans won't oust speaker Johnson days before a government shutdown - they would incur 100% of the political blame, and they know it.  It is an excellent move by Greene, because she doesn't deserve to be talked about - yet here we are.

Since foreign aid won't get passed under continuing resolutions, this at least paves the way to focus on sending military equipment to Ukraine and Israel.  I mention Israel because some Democrats favor sending weapons to Ukraine but not Israel, so they oppose combined spending.

[LennStar]

Ukraine lines are failing or close to failing pracitcally everywhere, the first line after Avdijika is lost and new defense lines are getting erected quite far away from fronts.

[pecunia]

Ukraine lines are failing or close to failing pracitcally everywhere, the first line after Avdijika is lost and new defense lines are getting erected quite far away from fronts.

The strange lack of support from MAGA Republicans seems to be taking its toll.  It shows me that a myopic foreign policy will yield poor results.  Hopefully, Europe continues to pull together, deliver all those promised shells and enable Ukraine to stop the Russians.  The idea of Putin wishing to increase the Russian hordes by another 500,000 is troubling.

[zolotiyeruki]

Sending a half million fighting-age Russian men to the front is gonna do wonders for Russia's demographics.  From what I've heard, they're running low on willing convicts to send, and their gains, however inexorable they have been, have been exceedingly costly.  Like a few hundred square meters per man lost.

Here's hoping the artillery shipments courtesy of the Czechs start arriving and having an impact soon!

[Posthumane]

I found this latest article published by the Institute for the Study of War to be rather well written. It does a good job of articulating some points I have tried to make when discussing this issue with friends and family in the past.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/denying-russia%E2%80%99s-only-strategy-success

[LennStar]

Update: The general situation has not changed, Russia is pressing attacks and Ukraine is very slowly losing ground.

There was a big assault on Krasnohorivka (the town in front of Donetsk), where Russians took the outer part of the city, but were repelled by reaction forces. I think this is why there is such a huge APV count today. (And also where they used that something-1500 vacuum bomb.)


If you didn't pay attention, Russia managed to lose 1000 tanks in the first 3 month this year, which also means they have lost half of the higher estimates of their Soviet stockpile. I am actually surprised they can still keep those attacks going because repairing isn't getting easier the older the stuff is.


Meanwhile The White House is getting angry that the Ukrainians dare to attack the oil infraastructure, since that could increase gas prices in the US.

Honestly, just stop being to reliant on cars for everything guys! It's stupidly expensive, stupidly unhelathy, stupidly time consuming and makes you stupidly reliable on your enemy keeping up production.

[reeshau]

Honestly, just stop being to reliant on cars for everything guys! It's stupidly expensive, stupidly unhelathy, stupidly time consuming and makes you stupidly reliable on your enemy keeping up production.

I agree it's a strategic weakness, but it's not simply a mind change, and it's done.  There has been 100 years of infrastructure change that encouraged the use of cars and discouraged "older" ways of living.  Many US cities would have to be fully rebuilt to realize this change.  And only a few places now even think this is necessary

 I live in the middle of an area which doesn't just deny the need, but thrives on the high costs.  It is one of 3 areas in this metro area of 7 million which is moderately walkable.  And yet, we are surrounded by housing developments of multiple thousands, whose residents need to drive out of the neighborhood to get milk or bread.  And even in this moderately walkable area, most parents who live too close to the school to qualify for bussing (1 mile) choose to drive their kid to school, waiting in a car line for 30 minutes (to try to be first) with their cars idling to keep the AC on against the heat.

Until the living arrangements make this lifestyle uncomfortable, the inertia of the now-historical ways of life will persist.   A good doubling of gas prices would be a start.  (note: this would just put us on par with the EU.  Drastic for here, but not many other places. With the current spike in crude, gas is now $3 per gallon / €0.73/L )

[ChpBstrd]

Honestly, just stop being to reliant on cars for everything guys! It's stupidly expensive, stupidly unhelathy, stupidly time consuming and makes you stupidly reliable on your enemy keeping up production.

IDK why, but Americans cannot comprehend this. You can say it, observe the brain being stunned for half a second, and then watch the conversation pivot to something else as if this was a some kind of sidebar instead of a root problem.

If you press the matter, you'll be asked "how am I supposed to get around?" and realize you don't have an immediate answer for the person because everything is spread out and there's no other infrastructure.

[zolotiyeruki]

Update: The general situation has not changed, Russia is pressing attacks and Ukraine is very slowly losing ground.

There was a big assault on Krasnohorivka (the town in front of Donetsk), where Russians took the outer part of the city, but were repelled by reaction forces. I think this is why there is such a huge APV count today. (And also where they used that something-1500 vacuum bomb.)


If you didn't pay attention, Russia managed to lose 1000 tanks in the first 3 month this year, which also means they have lost half of the higher estimates of their Soviet stockpile. I am actually surprised they can still keep those attacks going because repairing isn't getting easier the older the stuff is.

How cow, 73 APVs, 50 artillery, 15 tanks, and 61 other vehicles?  That's a big day, even if the number of Russian casualties is under 900.

I saw a twitter thread a couple months back that analyzed Russia's pace of losses vs their production capacity, and projected that Russia would be completely out of armor in the next 18-24 months at this pace.  As a thought experiment, if we assume Russia keeps pushing at their current rate, that doesn't get them much more ground before they completely exhaust their military.

Even with Mike Johnson's moronically cynical stonewalling of aid to Ukraine, I feel like there's still a whole lot the Biden administration could be doing to help.  We pay tons of money to safely dispose of nearing-expiration munitions, cluster bombs, etc.  Can we not just ship them over? And with the money saved on disposal, we could afford to send more stuff at the same time?  Sell a couple thousand Bradleys to NATO countries that could then donate them to Ukraine?

[pecunia]

Update: The general situation has not changed, Russia is pressing attacks and Ukraine is very slowly losing ground.

There was a big assault on Krasnohorivka (the town in front of Donetsk), where Russians took the outer part of the city, but were repelled by reaction forces. I think this is why there is such a huge APV count today. (And also where they used that something-1500 vacuum bomb.)


If you didn't pay attention, Russia managed to lose 1000 tanks in the first 3 month this year, which also means they have lost half of the higher estimates of their Soviet stockpile. I am actually surprised they can still keep those attacks going because repairing isn't getting easier the older the stuff is.

How cow, 73 APVs, 50 artillery, 15 tanks, and 61 other vehicles?  That's a big day, even if the number of Russian casualties is under 900.

I saw a twitter thread a couple months back that analyzed Russia's pace of losses vs their production capacity, and projected that Russia would be completely out of armor in the next 18-24 months at this pace.  As a thought experiment, if we assume Russia keeps pushing at their current rate, that doesn't get them much more ground before they completely exhaust their military.

Even with Mike Johnson's moronically cynical stonewalling of aid to Ukraine, I feel like there's still a whole lot the Biden administration could be doing to help.  We pay tons of money to safely dispose of nearing-expiration munitions, cluster bombs, etc.  Can we not just ship them over? And with the money saved on disposal, we could afford to send more stuff at the same time?  Sell a couple thousand Bradleys to NATO countries that could then donate them to Ukraine?

I do believe there would be bipartisan support for some of those ideas.  The world has changed quickly.  Aren't there any of these neocon guys around any more?  They would support sending armaments to Ukraine in a heartbeat.

[Radagast]

Meanwhile The White House is getting angry that the Ukrainians dare to attack the oil infraastructure, since that could increase gas prices in the US.

Yup, this is really dumb and a sign the Biden administration is no longer competently handling the situation. Striking Russian crude production would be a double edge sword because production would go down, but crude prices would go up benefitting Russia's margin and harming Ukraine's allies. Striking Russian refining is genius because Russia doesn't have very much refining capacity. In fact they stopped exporting refined oil products because of shortage:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-bans-gasoline-exports-6-months-march-1-2024-02-27/

Striking Russian refining is all around great because it won't impact crude prices, and may depress them if Russia has to sell oil it can't refine to others. Ukraine's allies are net oil refiners but they are not net oil producers, so higher prices for refined oil and low prices for crude benefit Ukraine allies and at best do nothing for Russia. If Ukraine can significantly damage Russian refining Russia'd have to buy high priced refined products back wasting their foreign currency from oil sales. This is the relationship between the US and Venezuela for example. Meanwhile they'd be trying to sell a glut of crude oil into a flooded market at low prices. So it's a great strategy that should be encouraged and aided, and unless I see solid reasons to the contrary I will say anyone trying to get Ukraine to stop is a badly incompetent moron on several levels.

[pecunia]

Meanwhile The White House is getting angry that the Ukrainians dare to attack the oil infraastructure, since that could increase gas prices in the US.

Yup, this is really dumb and a sign the Biden administration is no longer competently handling the situation. Striking Russian crude production would be a double edge sword because production would go down, but crude prices would go up benefitting Russia's margin and harming Ukraine's allies. Striking Russian refining is genius because Russia doesn't have very much refining capacity. In fact they stopped exporting refined oil products because of shortage:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-bans-gasoline-exports-6-months-march-1-2024-02-27/

Striking Russian refining is all around great because it won't impact crude prices, and may depress them if Russia has to sell oil it can't refine to others. Ukraine's allies are net oil refiners but they are not net oil producers, so higher prices for refined oil and low prices for crude benefit Ukraine allies and at best do nothing for Russia. If Ukraine can significantly damage Russian refining Russia'd have to buy high priced refined products back wasting their foreign currency from oil sales. This is the relationship between the US and Venezuela for example. Meanwhile they'd be trying to sell a glut of crude oil into a flooded market at low prices. So it's a great strategy that should be encouraged and aided, and unless I see solid reasons to the contrary I will say anyone trying to get Ukraine to stop is a badly incompetent moron on several levels.

Wasn't the original statement kind of weasel worded?  I think they said something like they don't "encourage" the destruction of oil refineries.  I'm too lazy to look.