That is our plan, and given the poor condition of Russia’s submarine fleet, probably feasible. Unfortunately taking out the ICBMs in particular would require nuclear weapons. The fallout would be monstrous, and make China along with parts of other former Soviet republics very unhappy collateral casualties. The humanitarian damage and civilians injured would easily top 100 million, not including the tens of millions dead.
I think in terms of conventional war and Putin’s meddling in strategy: we’re in the next act of the James Bond movie where the supervillain yells at his henchmen and incompetently micromanages their final demise. I do stand by prior predictions that this will take longer than Ukrainians can hold out, and ultimately an armistice line will be negotiated at roughly current positions.
It just wouldn't seem right for Russia to get that land. It would be as though Putin ultimately won. He doesn't care about his dead Russian soldiers. Does Karma apply to entire countries?
I wish, at least to their governments (and fraction of population supporting this stupidity). It is concerning that Ukraine has made little progress in Kherson (southern front) after speeding across the relatively less occupied northern front. Reports suggest this is because the south is being defended by the brunt of Russia's regular army, such as it remains; the north was defended by irregulars and conscripts. This lack of reinforcements to the north suggests that Putin is obsessed with holding the southern part of the occupied territories, and would basically destroy everything within it before letting go.
With ~300k conscripts being sent to reinforce these positions, I will be surprised if Ukraine can over-run the area without a large-scale slaughter of Russian forces or retreat/surrender of conscripts. The former depends on a even stronger influx of long-range weapons to Ukraine (to push the line rather than just maintain it and disrupt Russian logistics), which has not been forthcoming even after their successful push in the north.
If they don't have these weapons, the question becomes what do the Russian conscripts fear more: being shot for desertion / retreating versus being shot or captured by Ukrainian forces? I don't know that they will be able to organize an effective coupe from the front lines, and it seems that a large fraction of Russian civilians (conscripts or not) are unwilling to stage a revolt either.
It worth reviewing maps from these think thanks (which do a good job of scraping data from social media and official reports)
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updateshttps://www.csis.org/analysis/mapping-ukraines-military-advancesEspecially note the latter's front line markings from June versus September along the south - basically no progress either way. This is oddly reminiscent of WWI (especially given the significant reliance on artillery rather than tanks or airpower for both sides). I do agree that Russia is eventually screwed, but that can be a very long eventually. Unless the West provides Ukraine with air superiority (which they've refused to do to avoid provoking Russia), they'll continue firing at each other with artillery +/- drones for years to come.
Topic: Ukraine (Read 563989 times)