Author Topic: Ukraine  (Read 559100 times)

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1050 on: March 31, 2022, 12:19:44 PM »
Plus if Germans are anything like the Dutch (and they generally are) then back when the transition from coal to gas was made, all traces of the coal infrastructure were taken out of the homes immediately. My own house was built in the 40s and the coal heating was replaced by natural gas probably in the 60s or 70s. They didn't just replace the heater. They took out the whole chimney instead.

Certainly in the 2 apartments where I lived before. This one not, but that is likely only because hot water is still made in the rooms with gas burner instead of a combined hot water / electricity plant a km away.

Quote
I know people who keep their homes at 22 or 24C!
I am always waay under the average for heating costs, even though I am at home the whole day.
But I only heat the living room (switch off evening) and bath if needed. The rest can go down until 14° C


Quote
The rapes are confirmed, as is looting.
Well, it's a war. You don't need confirmation for that. It's like saying there was shooting.

jrhampt

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1051 on: March 31, 2022, 01:21:24 PM »
I'm not convinced that rape is a necessary part of war.  War *crimes*, yes.

Imma

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1052 on: March 31, 2022, 01:25:52 PM »
I'm not convinced that rape is a necessary part of war.  War *crimes*, yes.

Theoretically maybe, but name one armed conflict in the whole history of mankind where rape was not used as a weapon? I really *want* it not to happen but realistically, yes it probably is going on literally right now.

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1053 on: March 31, 2022, 01:36:49 PM »
Here's an article about the white phosphorous bombs.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/25/ukraine-russia-white-phosphorus/

It could be fake news, but the Russians have done so much other bad stuff, I don't see any reason to make up more.

I kind of wonder.  This Putin guy never smiles.  They say there is bad juju about him.  He has access to all kinds of news.  He must see what his soldiers are doing.  In my opinion a normal person would be greatly disturbed when they see these things.  He is not a stupid man so he knows these actions do not stop with the deeds.  There is a ripple effect that can go on for generations.  He is supposed to be a guy that reads history.  Sometimes, I think it would be great to have no conscience, but then I think that's what makes you human.

jrhampt

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1054 on: March 31, 2022, 01:50:39 PM »
I'm not convinced that rape is a necessary part of war.  War *crimes*, yes.

Theoretically maybe, but name one armed conflict in the whole history of mankind where rape was not used as a weapon? I really *want* it not to happen but realistically, yes it probably is going on literally right now.

Oh, I know it happens, but I also think it should be completely unacceptable vs a “boys will be boys, war will be war” type of attitude.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1055 on: March 31, 2022, 01:57:09 PM »
Here's an article about the white phosphorous bombs.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/25/ukraine-russia-white-phosphorus/

It could be fake news, but the Russians have done so much other bad stuff, I don't see any reason to make up more.

White phosphorus is widely used for smoke rounds. I'm in the Army and for our 60mm mortars, the only smoke round available is a white phosphorus round. There are different smoke rounds available for larger mortars and artillery. Normally smoke is used to screen or obscure something - i.e. you shoot the smoke to be between the enemy position and an objective you're trying to seize so they can't see to shoot you. But that same smoke can also be fired directly on to the enemy. One tactic is to fire high explosive and white phosphorus - "shake and bake" as it's called. WP is also the preferred round if you're targeting something like a fuel dump or refueling operation.


Frankly dead is dead. Whether you're burned from white phosphorus, blown up by conventional munitions, shot with a machine gun, or burned due to incendiary rounds you're still dead. Anything other than a precision guided weapon in an area with civilians is going to cause collateral damage. Since Russia not only doesn't care about collateral damage but is actively targeting the civilian population that doesn't really matter. Some weapons like cluster munitions or WP might be considered worse - but it's all bad if you're the one being targeted.

Nate79

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1056 on: March 31, 2022, 03:42:59 PM »
Thank goodness we have the UN and the Geneva Convention.  It's really helped to prevent war and war crimes.

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Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1057 on: March 31, 2022, 05:20:06 PM »
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-denies-claims-putin-fed-bad-info-ukraine-war-2022-3

I started laughing while reading this.

Edit:
I do not have the historical background to fully comprehend the impact, but Japan has changed their wording regarding the Kuril Islands. They're now illegally occupied by Russia. Russia might be facing more problems then they'd expected.
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1509577019754958859
https://english.pravda.ru/news/world/150932-japan_russia_kurils/
« Last Edit: March 31, 2022, 05:51:34 PM by Sibley »

sonofsven

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1058 on: March 31, 2022, 07:43:12 PM »
It sure seems like Europe should be a ready market for small modular nuclear reactors if they can ever start manufacturing them.

So - These Russian people lie about things like troop pullbacks.  They blow  blow up hospitals, schools, and apartments.  They kidnap people for transit to maybe Siberia to help their demographics.  They roll in with converted Toyota trucks with machine guns welded on the back. (Of course tanks, rocket launchers, and other conventional war machines.)  They surround, cut off water and food to cities and then shell and kill the folks.  They kill and probably rape civilians.  They use these phosphorous bombs on civilian targets.  They fabricate fake news for the consumption of their own population and the world.  They poison those that don't get with the program or they just disappear.  Good thing they are not one of these terrorist organizations, eh?

I haven't heard about the torture thing or cutting people's heads off.  I strongly suspect they do the torture thing.

Imagine what they would be like had they not been a civilized people.

Look into the "Wagner Group" of RU mercenaries. Don't look too close, it's disturbing.

Also what Kadyrov has been doing in Chechnya. Sick.

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1059 on: April 01, 2022, 12:32:05 AM »
I do not have the historical background to fully comprehend the impact, but Japan has changed their wording regarding the Kuril Islands. They're now illegally occupied by Russia. Russia might be facing more problems then they'd expected.
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1509577019754958859
https://english.pravda.ru/news/world/150932-japan_russia_kurils/
In short: 300 years of both sides screaming "It's mine!". No peace treaty from WWII. Southern Kurils in sight of Hokkaido. Fishing rights and so on too.

One of the best stories I ever read is the one of 2 Russian sailors (yes, sail age, I think late 18th century) that had been left on one of those Islands because they left the ship completely drunk in the night and when they woke up the ship was gone.
That so perfectly fits the prejudice checkboxes about Russia!

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1060 on: April 01, 2022, 07:37:38 AM »
So, It is April 1st?  Did Russia shut off the natural gas?  Did Europe give in and prop up the ruble?  I don't have cable TV.  I don't see what happened on the news sites.  It is like this story disappeared.

Yeh - I think there will be investment in the next few years for local independent energy and not just in Europe.  It's a major supply chain disruption when you can't get energy. I look out the window this morning and see snow.  I no longer heat with wood.  I would not like the gas cut off.


GuitarStv

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1062 on: April 01, 2022, 09:18:51 AM »
Quote
I know people who keep their homes at 22 or 24C!
I am always waay under the average for heating costs, even though I am at home the whole day.
But I only heat the living room (switch off evening) and bath if needed. The rest can go down until 14° C

I tend to keep our home temperatures at similar levels, but it might have to depend upon your local laws if you're renting.  Here in Canada we have legislation that sets the minimum legal temperature for a rental unit at 21 degrees C.

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1063 on: April 01, 2022, 09:58:45 AM »
Quote
I know people who keep their homes at 22 or 24C!
I am always waay under the average for heating costs, even though I am at home the whole day.
But I only heat the living room (switch off evening) and bath if needed. The rest can go down until 14° C

I tend to keep our home temperatures at similar levels, but it might have to depend upon your local laws if you're renting.  Here in Canada we have legislation that sets the minimum legal temperature for a rental unit at 21 degrees C.
Correct me if I am wrong, but that is the landlord has to guarantee that temperature to the renter!?

I also have in my contract to keep a minimum temperature of I think 12 degrees (quite standard) to prevent freezing of water etc.

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1064 on: April 01, 2022, 11:34:18 AM »
https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-strikes-fuel-depot-russias-belgorod-regional-official-says-2022-04-01/

A fuel depot got hit inside Russia. Ukraine says it wasn't them. Fog of war and all that, so who knows. Eventually the historians will figure it out.

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1065 on: April 01, 2022, 12:06:41 PM »
https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-strikes-fuel-depot-russias-belgorod-regional-official-says-2022-04-01/

A fuel depot got hit inside Russia. Ukraine says it wasn't them. Fog of war and all that, so who knows. Eventually the historians will figure it out.
Everything I've seen says that Ukraine is neither confirming or denying anything, since it happened on Russian soil.

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1066 on: April 01, 2022, 12:18:21 PM »
https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-strikes-fuel-depot-russias-belgorod-regional-official-says-2022-04-01/

A fuel depot got hit inside Russia. Ukraine says it wasn't them. Fog of war and all that, so who knows. Eventually the historians will figure it out.
Everything I've seen says that Ukraine is neither confirming or denying anything, since it happened on Russian soil.

That was the initial at least, Reuters has an update.

Also, re the radiation poisioning discussed the other day - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/04/01/russian-soldier-dies-radiation-poisoning-chernobyl/

Sorry for the paywall, but there's been at least one Russian death from radiation poisoning reported. I didn't see another (English) source, the original source I saw was Polish but I can't copy and paste between phone and computer.

Imma

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1067 on: April 01, 2022, 01:12:41 PM »
Quote
I know people who keep their homes at 22 or 24C!
I am always waay under the average for heating costs, even though I am at home the whole day.
But I only heat the living room (switch off evening) and bath if needed. The rest can go down until 14° C

I tend to keep our home temperatures at similar levels, but it might have to depend upon your local laws if you're renting.  Here in Canada we have legislation that sets the minimum legal temperature for a rental unit at 21 degrees C.
Correct me if I am wrong, but that is the landlord has to guarantee that temperature to the renter!?

I also have in my contract to keep a minimum temperature of I think 12 degrees (quite standard) to prevent freezing of water etc.

Yes in NL 12 degrees is standard too. Anything lower is considered neglect and the renter is liable for the costs. Energy is so expensive here that I have low income friends who struggle to afford that. Of course the cheap rentals still have single glazing and no insulation and heaters from the 80s.

Poundwise

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1068 on: April 01, 2022, 04:13:02 PM »
I wouldn't be surprised if Putin's retreat of his ground forces simply will allow him to bomb Ukrainian cities from the air without restraint, now that he's assured that nobody will give Ukraine air assistance.

Quote
Russia’s sieges of Mariupol and Kharkiv — two heavily Russian-speaking cities that Putin claims to be “liberating” from Ukrainian oppression — resemble what the Nazis did to Warsaw, and what Putin himself did to Grozny.

Several analysts have compared Putin to a cornered rat, more dangerous now that he’s no longer in control of events. They want to give him a safe way out of the predicament he allegedly created for himself. Hence the almost universal scorn poured on Joe Biden for saying in Poland, “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.”

The conventional wisdom is entirely plausible. It has the benefit of vindicating the West’s strategy of supporting Ukraine defensively. And it tends toward the conclusion that the best outcome is one in which Putin finds some face-saving exit: additional Ukrainian territory, a Ukrainian pledge of neutrality, a lifting of some of the sanctions.

But what if the conventional wisdom is wrong? What if the West is only playing into Putin’s hands once again?

The possibility is suggested in a powerful reminiscence from The Times’s Carlotta Gall of her experience covering Russia’s siege of Grozny, during the first Chechen war in the mid-1990s. In the early phases of the war, motivated Chechen fighters wiped out a Russian armored brigade, stunning Moscow. The Russians regrouped and wiped out Grozny from afar, using artillery and air power.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/29/opinion/ukraine-war-putin.html

Quote
Suppose for a moment that Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine: that, from the beginning, his real targets were the energy riches of Ukraine’s east, which contain Europe’s second-largest known reserves of natural gas (after Norway’s).

Combine that with Russia’s previous territorial seizures in Crimea (which has huge offshore energy fields) and the eastern provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk (which contain part of an enormous shale-gas field), as well as Putin’s bid to control most or all of Ukraine’s coastline, and the shape of Putin’s ambitions become clear. He’s less interested in reuniting the Russian-speaking world than he is in securing Russia’s energy dominance.

“Under the guise of an invasion, Putin is executing an enormous heist,” said Canadian energy expert David Knight Legg. As for what’s left of a mostly landlocked Ukraine, it will likely become a welfare case for the West, which will help pick up the tab for resettling Ukraine’s refugees to new homes outside of Russian control. In time, a Viktor Orban-like figure could take Ukraine’s presidency, imitating the strongman-style of politics that Putin prefers in his neighbors.

« Last Edit: April 01, 2022, 04:20:39 PM by Poundwise »

Michael in ABQ

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1069 on: April 01, 2022, 06:13:16 PM »
I wouldn't be surprised if Putin's retreat of his ground forces simply will allow him to bomb Ukrainian cities from the air without restraint, now that he's assured that nobody will give Ukraine air assistance.

Aerial bombardment is far less effective than artillery and rockets. There's no risk of losing a plane to Ukraine's air defenses when you're just shelling a city with artillery. Also, it's a lot cheaper.

The retreat from Kyiv is because they couldn't capture the city and decapitate the government as they originally planned. Even if they could capture Kyiv and replace Zelensky with a puppet the Ukranian people would never allow it. Had it happened on day two or three of the invasion before millions were displaced and tens of thousands killed the Russians probably would have been successful.


frugalnacho

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1070 on: April 01, 2022, 08:18:41 PM »
I'm not convinced that rape is a necessary part of war.  War *crimes*, yes.

Rape is just a part of human culture.  People get raped all the time even with no war.  It doesn't need to be an official policy or anything, if it involves humans it's going to include some amount of rape.

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1071 on: April 01, 2022, 09:40:39 PM »
https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-strikes-fuel-depot-russias-belgorod-regional-official-says-2022-04-01/

A fuel depot got hit inside Russia. Ukraine says it wasn't them. Fog of war and all that, so who knows. Eventually the historians will figure it out.
Everything I've seen says that Ukraine is neither confirming or denying anything, since it happened on Russian soil.

Putin used a "false flag" operation years ago to justify the war in Chechnya.  At the present time, it would be rather unpopular to increase the destructive scope of the way by Putin.  However, if he could spin this up that the "Nazis" in Ukraine are now attacking Russian soil, he may get adequate public support.  The easiest way to do this would be to have his own people do the job.  I heard that only a portion of the oil depot was blown and that only several missiles were fired.  You would think the Ukrainians would have blown the entirety of the installation.

lemanfan

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1072 on: April 01, 2022, 11:37:55 PM »
So, It is April 1st?  Did Russia shut off the natural gas?  Did Europe give in and prop up the ruble?  I don't have cable TV.  I don't see what happened on the news sites.  It is like this story disappeared.

Some more information from the financial side regarding gas and currency here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CpCILdCUM7k

One thing that Patrick says in this video is that payment for gas delivered today is not due until mid May meaning that delivery shortages will probably not happen quite yet even if it comes to that.   He also points out that for technical reasons this is more of a change in WHO converts Dollars and Euros into Rubles - the buyer or the importer.  It will still be done at the same bank - Gazprombank - which is not yet sanctioned.
« Last Edit: April 01, 2022, 11:40:51 PM by lemanfan »

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1073 on: April 02, 2022, 04:26:19 PM »
I'm not going to share all the links, you can find them if you want. Here's the first article I'm aware of though (translate works pretty well in Chrome, otherwise use your translator of choice): https://news.obozrevatel.com/ukr/show/people/vse-zaminovano-na-vulitsyah-bagato-til-komarov-pokazav-pershi-kadri-zi-zvilnenoi-buchi.htm

In Bucha, northwest of Kyiv, it's reported that the Russians executed all males between 18 and 60. Images and videos show men with their hands tied, dead on the streets. The mayor reported they have buried at least 280 people in mass graves, their bodies were found after retaking the city, many civilians, some with their hands bound.

They also mined the city. Ukrainian forces are having to search and clear them.

I'm aware that this is SOP for Russian forces, they did the same in the past. It was wrong then, it is wrong now.

PDXTabs

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1074 on: April 02, 2022, 05:47:59 PM »
I made the mistake of learning more about The Wagner Group and their behavior. Sickening. Some things can't be unseen.

The use of mercenaries makes me wonder, even if the US and Europe are afraid to give Ukraine air support, can't well-heeled private citizens supporting Ukraine buy fighter jets or hire mercenaries and send them to help Ukraine? I know it may sound silly but certainly there must be billionaires who are as aghast at this war as anybody else.

Back to this, The Guardian: Sean Penn calls for billionaire to step up and buy aircraft for Ukraine. But they note:
However, a more serious obstacle to a billionaire buying F-15s and F-16s and flying them to Ukraine would be US export controls – major arms sales have to be approved by the US Congress before being allowed to proceed. “Typically fighter aircraft are sold by one government to another,” Netherwood added.

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1075 on: April 02, 2022, 06:19:05 PM »
I'm not going to share all the links, you can find them if you want. Here's the first article I'm aware of though (translate works pretty well in Chrome, otherwise use your translator of choice): https://news.obozrevatel.com/ukr/show/people/vse-zaminovano-na-vulitsyah-bagato-til-komarov-pokazav-pershi-kadri-zi-zvilnenoi-buchi.htm

In Bucha, northwest of Kyiv, it's reported that the Russians executed all males between 18 and 60. Images and videos show men with their hands tied, dead on the streets. The mayor reported they have buried at least 280 people in mass graves, their bodies were found after retaking the city, many civilians, some with their hands bound.

They also mined the city. Ukrainian forces are having to search and clear them.

I'm aware that this is SOP for Russian forces, they did the same in the past. It was wrong then, it is wrong now.

Wow!  They called the Ukrainians Nazis and they are coming in and doing Nazi stuff themselves.  Hitler's people used to be into the mass grave thing for a while.  The story goes that some efficiency expert figured those gas chambers were more economical.  So they burned a bunch of Jewish people, Polish people and gypsies.   The Russians did bring those portable crematoria trucks.  I think it is very wrong too, but there will be at least one person out there that says my moral code does not apply.

BicycleB

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1076 on: April 02, 2022, 06:27:33 PM »
My understanding from past readings (not an expert!!!) is that fighter jets, like high end battle radars and to some extent many other weapons, are "stickier" (my word) than ordinary goods because their geopolitical implications - but also issues of supply and training.

Specifically, because they do require complex supplies and maintenance to function, and they function better when operators and maintenance staff are well trained, "buying" such an item tends to lock you into the selling country's geopolitical sphere if you want to keep using the weapon. Something like, if you want to buck the wishes of the seller, you have a few months or a year to use the weapon before you run low on parts. As a practical matter, you end up partly under the thumb of the seller.

I have previously read that USA has been, to some extent, a reliable "ally" when it sells weapons, providing fairly consistent supply and service (with some exceptions) - and that China, in its modest forays into weapons sales, has gotten few takers because it's viewed as less reliable. Turkey is said to have developed its Bayraktar attack drone (was it this thread that posted the Bayraktar song?) because it didn't like the strings required from US and Russia, which had each conditionally offered to sell drones. In any case, because of the ongoing relationship that often comes with complex weapons, sellers can be jealous sellers.

You can't just buy fighters like lollipops. (So far, at least. I think.)
« Last Edit: April 02, 2022, 06:30:35 PM by BicycleB »

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1077 on: April 02, 2022, 07:02:39 PM »
My understanding from past readings (not an expert!!!) is that fighter jets, like high end battle radars and to some extent many other weapons, are "stickier" (my word) than ordinary goods because their geopolitical implications - but also issues of supply and training.

Specifically, because they do require complex supplies and maintenance to function, and they function better when operators and maintenance staff are well trained, "buying" such an item tends to lock you into the selling country's geopolitical sphere if you want to keep using the weapon. Something like, if you want to buck the wishes of the seller, you have a few months or a year to use the weapon before you run low on parts. As a practical matter, you end up partly under the thumb of the seller.

I have previously read that USA has been, to some extent, a reliable "ally" when it sells weapons, providing fairly consistent supply and service (with some exceptions) - and that China, in its modest forays into weapons sales, has gotten few takers because it's viewed as less reliable. Turkey is said to have developed its Bayraktar attack drone (was it this thread that posted the Bayraktar song?) because it didn't like the strings required from US and Russia, which had each conditionally offered to sell drones. In any case, because of the ongoing relationship that often comes with complex weapons, sellers can be jealous sellers.

You can't just buy fighters like lollipops. (So far, at least. I think.)

That makes sense. Proprietary parts and all.

And yes, the song is fun. I went down the rabbit hole (or at least attempted to) regarding music in Ukraine during the war. Lots of new stuff coming out, or old songs being modified. Remember London Calling by The Clash? The band gave permission for a Kyiv Calling cover: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLCiA38No3Y

PDXTabs

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1078 on: April 02, 2022, 07:16:19 PM »
I have previously read that USA has been, to some extent, a reliable "ally" when it sells weapons, providing fairly consistent supply and service (with some exceptions) - and that China, in its modest forays into weapons sales, has gotten few takers because it's viewed as less reliable. Turkey is said to have developed its Bayraktar attack drone (was it this thread that posted the Bayraktar song?) because it didn't like the strings required from US and Russia, which had each conditionally offered to sell drones. In any case, because of the ongoing relationship that often comes with complex weapons, sellers can be jealous sellers.

This checks out. Turkey is the only country in NATO that likes to buy both western and Russian arms. But when they bought S-400 anti-aircraft batteries the other NATO members got upset.

Travis

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1079 on: April 02, 2022, 07:30:16 PM »
I wouldn't be surprised if Putin's retreat of his ground forces simply will allow him to bomb Ukrainian cities from the air without restraint, now that he's assured that nobody will give Ukraine air assistance.



Putin didn't need an excuse to unleash his air force on Ukrainian cities. He's been doing that the whole time in the east, and launching cruise missiles at the western cities since Day 1.

https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-strikes-fuel-depot-russias-belgorod-regional-official-says-2022-04-01/

A fuel depot got hit inside Russia. Ukraine says it wasn't them. Fog of war and all that, so who knows. Eventually the historians will figure it out.
Everything I've seen says that Ukraine is neither confirming or denying anything, since it happened on Russian soil.

Putin used a "false flag" operation years ago to justify the war in Chechnya.  At the present time, it would be rather unpopular to increase the destructive scope of the way by Putin.  However, if he could spin this up that the "Nazis" in Ukraine are now attacking Russian soil, he may get adequate public support.  The easiest way to do this would be to have his own people do the job.  I heard that only a portion of the oil depot was blown and that only several missiles were fired.  You would think the Ukrainians would have blown the entirety of the installation.

This fuel depot strike is an interesting case. Whenever Russia needed a false flag incident, it bombed apartments. Destroying their own fuel supply genuinely hurts them, and embarrasses them for not protecting it. Belgorod citizens lit up the mayor on Telegram asking where their air force was at. Ukraine not admitting to it could be a massive trolling operation, but also tempering the impact by not inviting a bigger counterstrike. It also gets the conspiracy theorists out there pondering if Russian pilots did it.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1080 on: April 02, 2022, 08:52:02 PM »
My understanding from past readings (not an expert!!!) is that fighter jets, like high end battle radars and to some extent many other weapons, are "stickier" (my word) than ordinary goods because their geopolitical implications - but also issues of supply and training.

Specifically, because they do require complex supplies and maintenance to function, and they function better when operators and maintenance staff are well trained, "buying" such an item tends to lock you into the selling country's geopolitical sphere if you want to keep using the weapon. Something like, if you want to buck the wishes of the seller, you have a few months or a year to use the weapon before you run low on parts. As a practical matter, you end up partly under the thumb of the seller.

I have previously read that USA has been, to some extent, a reliable "ally" when it sells weapons, providing fairly consistent supply and service (with some exceptions) - and that China, in its modest forays into weapons sales, has gotten few takers because it's viewed as less reliable. Turkey is said to have developed its Bayraktar attack drone (was it this thread that posted the Bayraktar song?) because it didn't like the strings required from US and Russia, which had each conditionally offered to sell drones. In any case, because of the ongoing relationship that often comes with complex weapons, sellers can be jealous sellers.

You can't just buy fighters like lollipops. (So far, at least. I think.)

Yep, my last deployment was basically focused on giving away US weapons and equipment to draw another country into the US sphere of influence as opposed to the Chinese or Russian. My mission was to train them on how to use the American weapons and equipment they had just been provided. There was a big PR focus anytime we delivered new equipment with lots of photo ops.

But without ongoing support, spare parts, and ammunition most of it would be worthless in a matter of years.

Travis

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1081 on: April 02, 2022, 09:11:24 PM »
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1510341553520361472

Long series of Tweets from GEN Hertling on what providing advanced NATO weapons to Ukraine would actually look like, and why finding them older stuff they're more familiar with is better.

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1082 on: April 02, 2022, 09:16:37 PM »
Well, if this is accurate, the world is now in a real no-win situation with Russia. How do you deprogram an entire country? We can't even figure out how to deprogram the Qanon people. And if Russia decides to throw itself into attacking other countries, then eventually someone who has the power to actually defeat them (NATO, etc) is going to have to do so. With all the attendant complications of Russia's nukes.

https://faridaily.substack.com/p/now-were-going-to-fck-them-all-whats?s=r

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1083 on: April 02, 2022, 09:30:17 PM »
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1510341553520361472

Long series of Tweets from GEN Hertling on what providing advanced NATO weapons to Ukraine would actually look like, and why finding them older stuff they're more familiar with is better.

Makes perfect sense. They're under stress, give them the equipment that is going to help and won't increase their stress too badly. If that means we find all the old Soviet equipment that's still out there and trade things around so Ukraine can get it, great!

I wish that NATO/US/others could take a more direct approach, but I also don't want to add another world war to the history books.

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1084 on: April 02, 2022, 09:57:50 PM »
At this point, I have to wonder whether Russia would even be capable of saying "hey, NATO just bombed us!" if they came under attack. They can't even tell if it was Ukraine that attacked their fuel tanks. How would they know if a few F-35s slipped in and wiped out a disional headquarters or three?

lemanfan

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1085 on: April 03, 2022, 12:44:57 AM »
Wow!  They called the Ukrainians Nazis and they are coming in and doing Nazi stuff themselves. 

Russia calling someone a "nazi" has nothing to do with the politics of Hitler and his party.  This is just a word for "enemy". It's just a word they use for political means. They may share our vocabulary but not our dictionary making discussion harder than it could be. I guess you could compare it to when Antifa calls something or someone "fascist", and I'm sure there are many other examples out there.

That Russia uses what the rest of the world calls war crimes as a playbook for their actions is also not news - we saw that in Syria too.

Better news: the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) is now reported in media to have stopped Russian gas imports since yesterday:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/02/world/europe/lithuania-russia-gas.html

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1086 on: April 03, 2022, 12:22:04 PM »


https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-strikes-fuel-depot-russias-belgorod-regional-official-says-2022-04-01/

A fuel depot got hit inside Russia. Ukraine says it wasn't them. Fog of war and all that, so who knows. Eventually the historians will figure it out.
Everything I've seen says that Ukraine is neither confirming or denying anything, since it happened on Russian soil.

Putin used a "false flag" operation years ago to justify the war in Chechnya.  At the present time, it would be rather unpopular to increase the destructive scope of the way by Putin.  However, if he could spin this up that the "Nazis" in Ukraine are now attacking Russian soil, he may get adequate public support.  The easiest way to do this would be to have his own people do the job.  I heard that only a portion of the oil depot was blown and that only several missiles were fired.  You would think the Ukrainians would have blown the entirety of the installation.

This fuel depot strike is an interesting case. Whenever Russia needed a false flag incident, it bombed apartments. Destroying their own fuel supply genuinely hurts them, and embarrasses them for not protecting it. Belgorod citizens lit up the mayor on Telegram asking where their air force was at. Ukraine not admitting to it could be a massive trolling operation, but also tempering the impact by not inviting a bigger counterstrike. It also gets the conspiracy theorists out there pondering if Russian pilots did it.

Another incident in Belgorod! 
https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-strikes-fuel-depot-russias-belgorod-regional-official-says-2022-04-01/

Wonder if it could be sabotage by anti-Putin elements within Russia? If so, Ukraine's refusal to confirm or deny could give them cover.

[update] ... wait, that was not the link I meant to post. I thought I saw there had been another episode in Belgorod, I'm looking for it now.

Found it! https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/blasts-heard-russian-city-belgorod-near-border-with-ukraine-witnesses-2022-04-03/
« Last Edit: April 03, 2022, 12:41:19 PM by Poundwise »

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1087 on: April 03, 2022, 12:51:55 PM »
I just saw an interesting opinion: given the destruction, pillaging, and human tragedy left in the wake of the Russian withdrawal in the north, it is now clear that there is no incentive for Ukraine to cede any territory to Russia in the hopes of limiting future suffering for the people in that territory.  In other words, Russia can't say "give us this land or we'll do X to the people," because they've already burned, raped, killed, and looted them.

Russia has no cards left to play in terms of negotiation, short of WMD.

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1088 on: April 03, 2022, 01:49:46 PM »
I just saw an interesting opinion: given the destruction, pillaging, and human tragedy left in the wake of the Russian withdrawal in the north, it is now clear that there is no incentive for Ukraine to cede any territory to Russia in the hopes of limiting future suffering for the people in that territory.  In other words, Russia can't say "give us this land or we'll do X to the people," because they've already burned, raped, killed, and looted them.

Russia has no cards left to play in terms of negotiation, short of WMD.

The sweetest, gentlest, most docile animal will turn deadly the instant that you back them into a corner, threaten them, and give them no way out. That is essentially what has happened, on both sides I think. Neither Russia nor Ukraine have a way out. Russia can't back down because it will destroy them, internally. Ukraine can't back down because they will die.

This war, unless someone intervenes in some highly effective way, will only end when one side is destroyed sufficiently that they can not continue to fight.

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1089 on: April 03, 2022, 04:16:18 PM »
I just saw an interesting opinion: given the destruction, pillaging, and human tragedy left in the wake of the Russian withdrawal in the north, it is now clear that there is no incentive for Ukraine to cede any territory to Russia in the hopes of limiting future suffering for the people in that territory.  In other words, Russia can't say "give us this land or we'll do X to the people," because they've already burned, raped, killed, and looted them.

Russia has no cards left to play in terms of negotiation, short of WMD.

The sweetest, gentlest, most docile animal will turn deadly the instant that you back them into a corner, threaten them, and give them no way out. That is essentially what has happened, on both sides I think. Neither Russia nor Ukraine have a way out. Russia can't back down because it will destroy them, internally. Ukraine can't back down because they will die.

This war, unless someone intervenes in some highly effective way, will only end when one side is destroyed sufficiently that they can not continue to fight.

Makes sense when you put it that way.  So, what kind of bone should be thrown to Russia?  This bone will take away the attention from the fight.  It will be something Putin can tell the people to make this mess sound like a partial success.

The more I learn about the countries in that part of the world, the more I see how intertwined they are by individual relationships, culture and history  It's a little like a civil war or a family feud.  In an odd sort of way, I think part of the fight is because Russia doesn't like Ukraine doing their own thing.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1090 on: April 03, 2022, 07:35:53 PM »
My understanding from past readings (not an expert!!!) is that fighter jets, like high end battle radars and to some extent many other weapons, are "stickier" (my word) than ordinary goods because their geopolitical implications - but also issues of supply and training.

Specifically, because they do require complex supplies and maintenance to function, and they function better when operators and maintenance staff are well trained, "buying" such an item tends to lock you into the selling country's geopolitical sphere if you want to keep using the weapon. Something like, if you want to buck the wishes of the seller, you have a few months or a year to use the weapon before you run low on parts. As a practical matter, you end up partly under the thumb of the seller.

However the Ukrainian air force has been begging for MiG-29 fighter jets, which they feel they can handle.  No government wants to risk war by giving them to Ukraine. But maybe they would sell to a third party.

On another topic: the massacre uncovered in Bucha is beyond horrible, sickening.  And probably just the tip of the iceberg.


Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1091 on: April 03, 2022, 08:38:44 PM »
I just saw an interesting opinion: given the destruction, pillaging, and human tragedy left in the wake of the Russian withdrawal in the north, it is now clear that there is no incentive for Ukraine to cede any territory to Russia in the hopes of limiting future suffering for the people in that territory.  In other words, Russia can't say "give us this land or we'll do X to the people," because they've already burned, raped, killed, and looted them.

Russia has no cards left to play in terms of negotiation, short of WMD.

The sweetest, gentlest, most docile animal will turn deadly the instant that you back them into a corner, threaten them, and give them no way out. That is essentially what has happened, on both sides I think. Neither Russia nor Ukraine have a way out. Russia can't back down because it will destroy them, internally. Ukraine can't back down because they will die.

This war, unless someone intervenes in some highly effective way, will only end when one side is destroyed sufficiently that they can not continue to fight.

Makes sense when you put it that way.  So, what kind of bone should be thrown to Russia?  This bone will take away the attention from the fight.  It will be something Putin can tell the people to make this mess sound like a partial success.

The more I learn about the countries in that part of the world, the more I see how intertwined they are by individual relationships, culture and history  It's a little like a civil war or a family feud.  In an odd sort of way, I think part of the fight is because Russia doesn't like Ukraine doing their own thing.

They've had bones thrown to them. Putin hasn't taken them. In order for Putin to take a bone, first he has to decide that he wants to take a bone. Then there has to be a bone that he can take. But if what I've been reading about Russian culture and how they work is right (and if I'm understanding it at all), then there really may not be any way out for Putin. He may have gone too far to turn back.

Sources: I'm reading through all the threads that Kamil Galeev on Twitter has done. He's been linked on here before I believe.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2022, 09:00:43 PM by Sibley »

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1092 on: April 03, 2022, 09:21:09 PM »
My understanding from past readings (not an expert!!!) is that fighter jets, like high end battle radars and to some extent many other weapons, are "stickier" (my word) than ordinary goods because their geopolitical implications - but also issues of supply and training.

Specifically, because they do require complex supplies and maintenance to function, and they function better when operators and maintenance staff are well trained, "buying" such an item tends to lock you into the selling country's geopolitical sphere if you want to keep using the weapon. Something like, if you want to buck the wishes of the seller, you have a few months or a year to use the weapon before you run low on parts. As a practical matter, you end up partly under the thumb of the seller.


You can't just buy fighters like lollipops. (So far, at least. I think.)

I think the "these fighters are really complicated the Ukrainian couldn't maintain them", is basically an excuse to not send them fighters because some in the government fear this would be an escalation.

A couple of examples. In the mid-1970s, the Shah of Iran bought 80 F14 (the plane of Top Gun fame), at the time it was the most sophisticated fighter in the world.  In 1979, the Iranian revolution happened, the US embassy was stormed hostage were taken. The US imposed unprecedented, crippling sanction on Iran. At the top of the list was any type of arm sales, especially spare parts for the F-14, they have remained embargoed ever since. Between 1980 and 1988 Iran and Iraq fought war similar in size and scope to the current war in Ukraine.

According to Wiki, 23 year later of the original 79 F14 sent to Iran 40 remain flying and in service with the Iranian.  The US Navy retired the F14 more than a decade ago.
Simlar to the large number of 1950's cars that still remain in service in Cuba, despite being embargoed for over 50 years.

Likewise, I am pretty sure that Russia cut off part supplies for MIGs and other Russian equipment after the 2014 invasion, and in fact it is always been hard for former Warsaw pact countries to get parts for their Russian equipment since the 2000s.

How can Iran keep their planes flying for 40+ years without access to spare parts?  Air forces, and airlines, have always made use of hanger queens, planes that have lots of maintenance issues, that eventually become sources of spare parts.  It is also the reason that, despite Boeing, and Airbus cutting off services to their planes in Russia, Aeroflot is still flying within Russia and limited number of international flights. I predict will still be doing so years in the future.

So while you are right the seller has lots of power in these deals in war time or hardship people are innovative in finding solutions.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1093 on: April 04, 2022, 12:19:43 AM »
My understanding from past readings (not an expert!!!) is that fighter jets, like high end battle radars and to some extent many other weapons, are "stickier" (my word) than ordinary goods because their geopolitical implications - but also issues of supply and training.

Specifically, because they do require complex supplies and maintenance to function, and they function better when operators and maintenance staff are well trained, "buying" such an item tends to lock you into the selling country's geopolitical sphere if you want to keep using the weapon. Something like, if you want to buck the wishes of the seller, you have a few months or a year to use the weapon before you run low on parts. As a practical matter, you end up partly under the thumb of the seller.


You can't just buy fighters like lollipops. (So far, at least. I think.)

I think the "these fighters are really complicated the Ukrainian couldn't maintain them", is basically an excuse to not send them fighters because some in the government fear this would be an escalation.

A couple of examples. In the mid-1970s, the Shah of Iran bought 80 F14 (the plane of Top Gun fame), at the time it was the most sophisticated fighter in the world.  In 1979, the Iranian revolution happened, the US embassy was stormed hostage were taken. The US imposed unprecedented, crippling sanction on Iran. At the top of the list was any type of arm sales, especially spare parts for the F-14, they have remained embargoed ever since. Between 1980 and 1988 Iran and Iraq fought war similar in size and scope to the current war in Ukraine.

According to Wiki, 23 year later of the original 79 F14 sent to Iran 40 remain flying and in service with the Iranian.  The US Navy retired the F14 more than a decade ago.
Simlar to the large number of 1950's cars that still remain in service in Cuba, despite being embargoed for over 50 years.

Likewise, I am pretty sure that Russia cut off part supplies for MIGs and other Russian equipment after the 2014 invasion, and in fact it is always been hard for former Warsaw pact countries to get parts for their Russian equipment since the 2000s.

How can Iran keep their planes flying for 40+ years without access to spare parts?  Air forces, and airlines, have always made use of hanger queens, planes that have lots of maintenance issues, that eventually become sources of spare parts.  It is also the reason that, despite Boeing, and Airbus cutting off services to their planes in Russia, Aeroflot is still flying within Russia and limited number of international flights. I predict will still be doing so years in the future.

So while you are right the seller has lots of power in these deals in war time or hardship people are innovative in finding solutions.

It's probably an excuse, but one with some data behind it.  When the war is over we will undoubtedly be competing with European suppliers to replace the UAF. If we sell them more and better equipment, we'll include training and maintenance packages. We won't want to half-ass it and we'll sell them a quality product.  Rushing this now and causing an air accident and incurring an escalation penalty with Russia just isn't worth the trouble.

Regarding the F-14s, they simply don't put as many miles on them as we might. We fly double the number of hours each year compared to the Russian air force, and pay through the nose to do so. I don't know Iran's numbers, but I expect those F-14s don't leave the ground very often. They've had them for decades to figure out how to keep them flying on a shoestring.

Ukrainian pilots are bold and creative, and they deserve to fly something reliable. Part of that reliability is ensuring the ground crews are trained and equipped, and that doesn't happen with new planes overnight.

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1094 on: April 04, 2022, 06:47:22 AM »

- SNIP -

They've had bones thrown to them. Putin hasn't taken them. In order for Putin to take a bone, first he has to decide that he wants to take a bone. Then there has to be a bone that he can take. But if what I've been reading about Russian culture and how they work is right (and if I'm understanding it at all), then there really may not be any way out for Putin. He may have gone too far to turn back.

Sources: I'm reading through all the threads that Kamil Galeev on Twitter has done. He's been linked on here before I believe.

Yeh - The Putin dog has to be hungry before he will take some bones.  Apparently, chewing on Ukrainian people keeps him satisfied for now.   How many Russian children have to die before he looks for another bone? 

As far as keeping modern military equipment going, the example given was Jet fighters sold to Iraq.  Does the fact that so much stuff is microprocessor controlled change things?  I'm thinking of the hassle John Deere has given the farmers.  I would guess the software would need to be reverse engineered to fix some of the stuff or they would need to write new software with new modules as chips go bad.  I do think modern manufacturers want you reliant on them for service of much equipment and perhaps military hardware is no different.

Just Joe

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1095 on: April 04, 2022, 07:35:09 AM »
Perhaps there will be open-source solutions for the John Deere problem. Jailbreak the tractor systems. I can't imagine that jet fighters would be easy to reverse engineer but on the other hand, with enough time and expertise...

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1096 on: April 04, 2022, 08:06:27 AM »
Perhaps there will be open-source solutions for the John Deere problem. Jailbreak the tractor systems. I can't imagine that jet fighters would be easy to reverse engineer but on the other hand, with enough time and expertise...
Farmers have been doing just that with their John Deeres--ironically, with hacked firmware that came from Ukraine.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1097 on: April 04, 2022, 08:43:21 AM »
Yes, I have nothign to do with airplanes, but 1970 gear is extremely easier to repair. All you need, after all, is 1970 machines.

That's when half of the ransport still happened with coal engines and a car mechanic with a file could fix whatever problem you had on your car.

Today, for many machine parts there is only one producer in the whole world.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1098 on: April 04, 2022, 08:50:43 AM »
"This is the article that was published by the Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti (Russian: РИА Новости). This media through the years was one of the main voices of Russian propaganda and fake news.

RIA Novosti is known for its systematic support of the Kremlin, violation of journalistic standards and works according to so-called “temnik” (directives and agendas from the government). The position in this article corresponds to the position of Russia."

https://medium.com/@kravchenko_mm/what-should-russia-do-with-ukraine-translation-of-a-propaganda-article-by-a-russian-journalist-a3e92e3cb64

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1099 on: April 04, 2022, 09:25:59 AM »
Zelensky went to Bucha, there's a lot of pictures on Twitter, but this one really stands out to me.

https://twitter.com/Kateryna_Kruk/status/1510975889588293639