Ukraine

[GuitarStv]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/05/us/politics/moskva-russia-ship-ukraine-us.html

Not certain why this is being publicized. Seems like it could lead to American Navy ships being targeted...

Russia deliberately attacking a U.S. Navy ship is an act of war. 

I don't disagree with you but doesn't that play both ways? If the Pentagon helped sink a Russian ship even if the USA didn't pull the trigger directly - couldn't the Russians argue this was an act of war?

Or - am I missing something like they won't complain too loudly b/c they are unable to really do anything about it?

Wasn't that the whole cold war?

[pecunia]

Also, the parade was 75% of the size of previous years incorporating some older equipment because the better stuff is at the front. Original plan was to have SU-27s fly in a "Z" shape, but they're all at the front so older MiG-29s were swapped in. Flyover was also to include bombers. All were cancelled due to "weather." Its partly cloudy in Moscow today. Maintenance problems are suspected.

I saw a post somewhere that said that *all* victory day flyovers in the entire country were cancelled due to "weather".

I have to wonder if they're worried about Stingers infiltrating the country.  Heaven knows they've had plenty of "accidents" at various military-related facilities over the past few weeks.

You know they've been a sort of paranoid country with the worry about NATO attacking and I guess Ukraine attacking.  This was their propaganda so I'm guessing at least some of them believed it.  Now that they've got all these countries helping Ukraine, what's that done for the paranoia?  The thing is that they've run roughshod over a lot of countries for a long long time.  Is some of their paranoia justified?  Is it only Ukraine messing around inside their country?  The power plant fire North of Japan was a long ways from Ukraine.

[Tyson]

Also, the parade was 75% of the size of previous years incorporating some older equipment because the better stuff is at the front. Original plan was to have SU-27s fly in a "Z" shape, but they're all at the front so older MiG-29s were swapped in. Flyover was also to include bombers. All were cancelled due to "weather." Its partly cloudy in Moscow today. Maintenance problems are suspected.

I saw a post somewhere that said that *all* victory day flyovers in the entire country were cancelled due to "weather".

I have to wonder if they're worried about Stingers infiltrating the country.  Heaven knows they've had plenty of "accidents" at various military-related facilities over the past few weeks.

You know they've been a sort of paranoid country with the worry about NATO attacking and I guess Ukraine attacking.  This was their propaganda so I'm guessing at least some of them believed it.  Now that they've got all these countries helping Ukraine, what's that done for the paranoia?  The thing is that they've run roughshod over a lot of countries for a long long time.  Is some of their paranoia justified?  Is it only Ukraine messing around inside their country?  The power plant fire North of Japan was a long ways from Ukraine.

It's true, Russia has strong-armed a lot of other countries.  What is happening in Ukraine is showing that Russia is a paper tiger (ie, actually weak).  This will embolden those other countries that Russia has bullied in the past.

[Michael in ABQ]

Incredible video about the attack from the Autrian military. Unfortunately German only, but maybe someone makes subtitles.
If I am not wrong it shows what we had earlier in this thread about the town with artillery on bith sides. Also pictures and numbers I have not seen before and historical comparison. Even if you don't understand the language, you should watch the pictures.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJiuc4KWmQo

The video automatically had English subtitles for me. This is a nice video. I'll be conducting training next week with the National Guard and I think I'll use it as an example of 1. how to conduct a briefing, and 2. a good strategic/operational/tactical overview.

[zolotiyeruki]

It's true, Russia has strong-armed a lot of other countries.  What is happening in Ukraine is showing that Russia is a paper tiger (ie, actually weak).  This will embolden those other countries that Russia has bullied in the past.

It's like somebody gave the bully a bloody nose.  Or pointed out that the emperor has no clothes.  Russia has been shown to have little effective military might, even before they invaded Ukraine.  Now they have a whole lot less.

You know what it reminds me of? The demise of Scar at the end of The Lion King...

[clifp]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/05/us/politics/moskva-russia-ship-ukraine-us.html

Not certain why this is being publicized. Seems like it could lead to American Navy ships being targeted...

Russia deliberately attacking a U.S. Navy ship is an act of war. 

I don't disagree with you but doesn't that play both ways? If the Pentagon helped sink a Russian ship even if the USA didn't pull the trigger directly - couldn't the Russians argue this was an act of war?

Or - am I missing something like they won't complain too loudly b/c they are unable to really do anything about it?

Putin's said that sanctions are an act of war. IANAL, much less an international one, but I believe you could make a decent case that sanctions, on say computer chips, are equivalent to a blockade, which is an act of war.  Of course, Ukraine could argue that Russia's special military operations in Ukraine are really an act of war.  Considering all the crazy things that have resulted in war in the past; soccer matches, calling a queen ugly, both sides have plenty of legitimate reasons to declare war on the other.

Contrary to popular opinion early in the war, that Putin was acting crazy, he is actually being quite rational.  Yes, he misjudged the Ukrainian people's will to fight and the amount of aid that would inspire the West to provide.  But Putin, has no desire to expand the war to include the US and/or NATO. If he is just patient (many years) the west will probably get distracted by something else, aid will slow to Ukraine,  and Russia could win a war of attrition with Ukraine. So Putin will continue to do nothing but protest the west actions, and rattle the nuclear saber.

[zolotiyeruki]

Contrary to popular opinion early in the war, that Putin was acting crazy, he is actually being quite rational.  Yes, he misjudged the Ukrainian people's will to fight and the amount of aid that would inspire the West to provide.  But Putin, has no desire to expand the war to include the US and/or NATO. If he is just patient (many years) the west will probably get distracted by something else, aid will slow to Ukraine,  and Russia could win a war of attrition with Ukraine. So Putin will continue to do nothing but protest the west actions, and rattle the nuclear saber.

That ignores the long-term effect of sanctions.  IMO, between sanctions and Ukraine whittling down their forces, Russia is on borrowed time.  If trade were normalized, and without western military support, sure, Russia would likely win a war of attrition.  Even if the West gets bored and stops supplying weapons, Ukraine would potentially still be able to purchase weapons, while Russia would be frozen in time a la North Korea.

[Sibley]

Contrary to popular opinion early in the war, that Putin was acting crazy, he is actually being quite rational.  Yes, he misjudged the Ukrainian people's will to fight and the amount of aid that would inspire the West to provide.  But Putin, has no desire to expand the war to include the US and/or NATO. If he is just patient (many years) the west will probably get distracted by something else, aid will slow to Ukraine,  and Russia could win a war of attrition with Ukraine. So Putin will continue to do nothing but protest the west actions, and rattle the nuclear saber.

That ignores the long-term effect of sanctions.  IMO, between sanctions and Ukraine whittling down their forces, Russia is on borrowed time.  If trade were normalized, and without western military support, sure, Russia would likely win a war of attrition.  Even if the West gets bored and stops supplying weapons, Ukraine would potentially still be able to purchase weapons, while Russia would be frozen in time a la North Korea.

And the brain drain effect. Russia has lost a LOT of people in the last few months, and most of them are the people you don't want to lose - younger, highly educated. Putin is increasingly left with the old, the very young, and the uneducated/unintelligent.

[pecunia]

Contrary to popular opinion early in the war, that Putin was acting crazy, he is actually being quite rational.  Yes, he misjudged the Ukrainian people's will to fight and the amount of aid that would inspire the West to provide.  But Putin, has no desire to expand the war to include the US and/or NATO. If he is just patient (many years) the west will probably get distracted by something else, aid will slow to Ukraine,  and Russia could win a war of attrition with Ukraine. So Putin will continue to do nothing but protest the west actions, and rattle the nuclear saber.

That ignores the long-term effect of sanctions.  IMO, between sanctions and Ukraine whittling down their forces, Russia is on borrowed time.  If trade were normalized, and without western military support, sure, Russia would likely win a war of attrition.  Even if the West gets bored and stops supplying weapons, Ukraine would potentially still be able to purchase weapons, while Russia would be frozen in time a la North Korea.

The West is not a single entity.  I would like to think other countries with older cultures view this war with a longer time horizon than the US.  Aid may diminish from one country and increase from one or more.  It is the responsibility of the Ukrainians to hold to a high standard during this war.  They must not allow any excuse to deny additional support.  It is also their responsibility to "sell" this war.  I think they've been doing an excellent PR job so far.

[gooki]

Putin's said that sanctions are an act of war. IANAL, much less an international one, but I believe you could make a decent case that sanctions, on say computer chips, are equivalent to a blockade, which is an act of war.  Of course, Ukraine could argue that Russia's special military operations in Ukraine are really an act of war.

There's no argument to be made. Russia's invasion of Ukraine was the start of the war. Let's not repeate Russian propaganda.

[PeteD01]

...
Contrary to popular opinion early in the war, that Putin was acting crazy, he is actually being quite rational.
...

Beg my pardon, this actually overstretches my imagination.

[SunnyDays]

...
Contrary to popular opinion early in the war, that Putin was acting crazy, he is actually being quite rational.
...

Beg my pardon, this actually overstretches my imagination.

This could also be a power display.

[Sibley]

Listening to this, about 12 minutes in they specifically talk about how people in Ukraine view Russia now. In short: according to the speaker, pure hatred.

https://geopolitics-decanted.simplecast.com/episodes/analysis-of-the-war-in-ukraine-may-1-2022

[clifp]

Contrary to popular opinion early in the war, that Putin was acting crazy, he is actually being quite rational.  Yes, he misjudged the Ukrainian people's will to fight and the amount of aid that would inspire the West to provide.  But Putin, has no desire to expand the war to include the US and/or NATO. If he is just patient (many years) the west will probably get distracted by something else, aid will slow to Ukraine,  and Russia could win a war of attrition with Ukraine. So Putin will continue to do nothing but protest the west actions, and rattle the nuclear saber.

That ignores the long-term effect of sanctions.  IMO, between sanctions and Ukraine whittling down their forces, Russia is on borrowed time.  If trade were normalized, and without western military support, sure, Russia would likely win a war of attrition.  Even if the West gets bored and stops supplying weapons, Ukraine would potentially still be able to purchase weapons, while Russia would be frozen in time a la North Korea.

The promise of sanctions doesn't match history.  Other South Africa, and maybe Libya what countries have changed course because of sanctions?  Burma, Cuba, China, Iran, North Korea, Russia, Syria, and Venezuela are under "strong" sanctions and scores of countries are under weaker sanctions. The leaders are still in power, they are still killing their own, people and many cases threatening to kill other countries, and obviously, Russia is doing precisely that

"And the brain drain effect. Russia has lost a LOT of people in the last few months, and most of them are the people you don't want to lose - younger, highly educated. Putin is increasingly left with the old, the very young, and the uneducated/unintelligent."

Agreed it is a significant loss, and the Russian economy is hurting, but other than computer chips, Russia is a pretty self-reliant country, they export food, and energy. They have lots of heavy industry, and military production.  Yes, it is poorly run and very inefficient.

But Ukraine's economy is also suffering, I saw on the PBS Newshour 50-70% of Ukrainian winter wheat isn't planted, they lack manpower, fertilizer, and equipment. Plus even if they can get it planted and harvested, how will they get shipped out. Odesa is blockade by Russian warships.  What if Trump is elected and he stops aid to Ukraine, after all Zelensky wasn't very nice to Trump, plus Trump would hate to have to compete with Zelensky for press attention.  Where would Ukraine get the money to buy the weapons, with it is major export unable to leave the country?

The last report, I saw Europe was buying $1 billion dollars a day worth of Russian energy, which dwarves aid to Ukraine by an order of magnitude. 

I've painted an admittedly grim picture in Ukraine, but I think talk of Putin's decisive loss in Ukraine is very premature.

[former player]

"Zelensky wasn't very nice to Trump"??

Seriously?

Because he wouldn't give in to Trump's blackmail and cook up false allegations against Biden, in league with Trump's Russian handlers?  You describe that as "not very nice to Trump"?

We don't know how the war will go but Russia doesn't have air or sea superiority, they are throwing everything the've got at the ground war and getting nowhere much, and the new artillery weapons together with sophisticated intelligence and drone-led targeting abilities of Ukraine will make progressively more difference to the ground war: sanctions make it impossible for Russia to get the tech needed on the scale needed to counteract Ukraine's already superior and still increasing abilities.  Who knows what the war situation will be in two years' time?  (For that matter, who knows whether Putin will still be alive and in power in two years' time, or even if the existing Russian Federation will still be intact?)

It's most of another two years before Trump can possibly get back into power.  Europe is moving away from Russian oil and gas with Russia having few options to replace the European market (it is already selling some oil at a loss): in two years' time Europe will be taking very little from Russia.  There's a decent chance that by then the billions already sanctioned and seized from Russian oligarchs will be transferred to Ukraine.

I agree the loss of harvests is a problem.  But it is less a problem for Ukraine, which will still produce enough to feed itself than it is for all the countries in the middle east and Africa whose populations depend on exports from Ukraine for their daily bread.  Taken together with climate change affecting food production in those  countries you can expect to see famine in the poorest of those countries and possibly large scale unrest in others.

[LennStar]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/05/us/politics/moskva-russia-ship-ukraine-us.html

Not certain why this is being publicized. Seems like it could lead to American Navy ships being targeted...

Russia deliberately attacking a U.S. Navy ship is an act of war. 

I don't disagree with you but doesn't that play both ways? If the Pentagon helped sink a Russian ship even if the USA didn't pull the trigger directly - couldn't the Russians argue this was an act of war?

Or - am I missing something like they won't complain too loudly b/c they are unable to really do anything about it?

That definitely. Putin does NOT want a war with the US ;)
But no, telling someone where something is - especially something big like a war ship - is not an act of war.

that sanctions, on say computer chips, are equivalent to a blockade,

Most definitely not. A sanction means you decide to not do trade. A blockade means you decide someone else does no trade. Very different pair of shoes. (Though you could say that heavy diplomatic pressure on a 3rd country to also sanction is a bit of grey.)

I think they've been doing an excellent PR job so far.

Damn fine work, indeed.

Another interesting twitter thread, this time on artillery use, the software for that and starlink importance for it.
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1523791050313433088

[Fresh Bread]

It's the Eurovision Song Contest this week and Ukraine is hotly tipped to win, for obvious reasons. Their entry was chosen just before the war began and hopefully the group will be making it to the contest. I have to say though, it is catchy and would have finished near the top anyway.
https://youtu.be/UiEGVYOruLk

Ukraine always incorporate traditional sounds and instruments in their entries. Last year's entry was an absolute banger and finished 5th after a massive audience vote upended the scoreboard.
https://youtu.be/U7-dxzp6Jvs

They won in 2016 with a song about the deportation of Tatars from Crimea by the Russians in the 1940s. In fact they've always done very well in the contest.

Russia and Belarus are banned from this year's contest.

[Just Joe]

I watched this early this morning. Its 20 minutes on the ground with folks in the east just trying to survive. No journalist talking over the video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvJwv-6oNOQ

[GuitarStv]

...
Contrary to popular opinion early in the war, that Putin was acting crazy, he is actually being quite rational.
...

Beg my pardon, this actually overstretches my imagination.

This could also be a power display.

The power of purchasing custom made furniture?

I know some Amish guys who would be willing to make me a table 1 inch longer for the right price.

[SunnyDays]

...
Contrary to popular opinion early in the war, that Putin was acting crazy, he is actually being quite rational.
...

Beg my pardon, this actually overstretches my imagination.

This could also be a power display.

The power of purchasing custom made furniture?

I know some Amish guys who would be willing to make me a table 1 inch longer for the right price.

Go for it!

Power in the sense of "You can't come near/touch me" and "I'm the head of this meeting/operation/country."
Sitting together implies cooperation and equality.  Sitting that far apart is symbolic of superiority and control.

[GuitarStv]

...
Contrary to popular opinion early in the war, that Putin was acting crazy, he is actually being quite rational.
...

Beg my pardon, this actually overstretches my imagination.

This could also be a power display.

The power of purchasing custom made furniture?

I know some Amish guys who would be willing to make me a table 1 inch longer for the right price.

Go for it!

Power in the sense of "You can't come near/touch me" and "I'm the head of this meeting/operation/country."
Sitting together implies cooperation and equality.  Sitting that far apart is symbolic of superiority and control.

I feel like he should at least spring for a fancier seat:

[SunnyDays]

What exactly is that?  If it's a pop culture reference, it's lost on me.

[GuitarStv]

It's the Game of Thrones throne.  :P

[oldladystache]

I watched this early this morning. Its 20 minutes on the ground with folks in the east just trying to survive. No journalist talking over the video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvJwv-6oNOQ

Wow. That makes it real.

[partgypsy]

The wife of my relative in Poland is collecting items, as she has contacts through work to get things through to Ukraine, not just to the border but farther west. Staying that people in the western part of country are running out of food, formula, medicines. It is interesting her list of requests. Baby formula and shelf stable milk, diapers, baby clothes. Toys (used but good condition). Shelf stable foods. And then the list goes: fingerless gloves. Axes and chainsaws. Sleeping bags, shoulder straps. Generators. Damn. The Ukrainian people are bad ass. It continues. Helmets. Bulletproof vests. Night vision goggles. Handcuffs. Also 2 laptops and 2 printers

[maizefolk]

But Ukraine's economy is also suffering, I saw on the PBS Newshour 50-70% of Ukrainian winter wheat isn't planted, they lack manpower, fertilizer, and equipment. Plus even if they can get it planted and harvested, how will they get shipped out

Spring wheat surely? Or do you mean harvested instead of planted? Ukraine's winter wheat would have been planted months before the Russian invasion and even under normal circumstances they wouldn't start planting winter wheat again until the fall.

[PeteD01]

Interesting but not yet confirmed:

https://twitter.com/AlexKhrebet/status/1524361427766726656

[Sibley]

Interesting but not yet confirmed:

https://twitter.com/AlexKhrebet/status/1524361427766726656

I was also seeing unconfirmed reports that in the north Ukraine had pushed the Russians back to the boarder. And there's another dead oligarch.

[LennStar]

Interesting but not yet confirmed:

https://twitter.com/AlexKhrebet/status/1524361427766726656

I was also seeing unconfirmed reports that in the north Ukraine had pushed the Russians back to the boarder. And there's another dead oligarch.

Who and how? I am still waiting for a defenestration.

[Sibley]

Interesting but not yet confirmed:

https://twitter.com/AlexKhrebet/status/1524361427766726656

I was also seeing unconfirmed reports that in the north Ukraine had pushed the Russians back to the boarder. And there's another dead oligarch.

Who and how? I am still waiting for a defenestration.

Alexander Subbotin, found dead on Sunday in a shaman's home in Mytishchi (just northeast of Moscow). Allegedly went there looking for a hangover cure. All I got, not a great source.

[pecunia]

Interesting but not yet confirmed:

https://twitter.com/AlexKhrebet/status/1524361427766726656

I was also seeing unconfirmed reports that in the north Ukraine had pushed the Russians back to the boarder. And there's another dead oligarch.

Who and how? I am still waiting for a defenestration.

Alexander Subbotin, found dead on Sunday in a shaman's home in Mytishchi (just northeast of Moscow). Allegedly went there looking for a hangover cure. All I got, not a great source.

Newsweek link saying the same.  However, their information may also be from dubious source.

https://www.newsweek.com/alexander-subbotin-7th-russian-oligarch-mysteriously-die-this-year-1705164

It could be that these guys have not been "team players" on Putin's Russian team.  Those who don't play like the coach wants get cut from the squad.

[PeteD01]

More catastrophic losses for Russia:


The Russians Lost Nearly An Entire Battalion Trying To Cross A River In Eastern Ukraine
David Axe, Forbes

"The better part of a Russian army battalion—50 or so vehicles and up to a thousand troops—in recent days tried to cross a pontoon bridge spanning the Siverskyi Donets River, running west to east between the separatist provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine.
Ukrainian artillery caught them at the river bank—and destroyed them."


https://tinyurl.com/bdd826vj

[Bateaux]

More catastrophic losses for Russia:


The Russians Lost Nearly An Entire Battalion Trying To Cross A River In Eastern Ukraine
David Axe, Forbes

"The better part of a Russian army battalion—50 or so vehicles and up to a thousand troops—in recent days tried to cross a pontoon bridge spanning the Siverskyi Donets River, running west to east between the separatist provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine.
Ukrainian artillery caught them at the river bank—and destroyed them."


https://tinyurl.com/bdd826vj

Deployment and use of a vulnerable asset like a pontoon bridge requires extreme security.  Ukrainian artillery was within range and devasted the Russians.   Putin thinks he's fighting WW2.  Drone and space observation intelligence allow you to coordinate the attack.  It's far easier to defend an obstacle than cross it.

[Travis]

More catastrophic losses for Russia:


The Russians Lost Nearly An Entire Battalion Trying To Cross A River In Eastern Ukraine
David Axe, Forbes

"The better part of a Russian army battalion—50 or so vehicles and up to a thousand troops—in recent days tried to cross a pontoon bridge spanning the Siverskyi Donets River, running west to east between the separatist provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine.
Ukrainian artillery caught them at the river bank—and destroyed them."


https://tinyurl.com/bdd826vj

Deployment and use of a vulnerable asset like a pontoon bridge requires extreme security.  Ukrainian artillery was within range and devasted the Russians.   Putin thinks he's fighting WW2.  Drone and space observation intelligence allow you to coordinate the attack.  It's far easier to defend an obstacle than cross it.

Allegedly a Ukrainian engineering officer from that brigade predicted where they'd build the bridge a couple days prior and they just waited for the crossing to start.

[zolotiyeruki]

More catastrophic losses for Russia:


The Russians Lost Nearly An Entire Battalion Trying To Cross A River In Eastern Ukraine
David Axe, Forbes

"The better part of a Russian army battalion—50 or so vehicles and up to a thousand troops—in recent days tried to cross a pontoon bridge spanning the Siverskyi Donets River, running west to east between the separatist provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine.
Ukrainian artillery caught them at the river bank—and destroyed them."


https://tinyurl.com/bdd826vj

Deployment and use of a vulnerable asset like a pontoon bridge requires extreme security.  Ukrainian artillery was within range and devasted the Russians.   Putin thinks he's fighting WW2.  Drone and space observation intelligence allow you to coordinate the attack.  It's far easier to defend an obstacle than cross it.

Allegedly a Ukrainian engineering officer from that brigade predicted where they'd build the bridge a couple days prior and they just waited for the crossing to start.

He provided some additional detail as well: https://twitter.com/kms_d4k/status/1524506162728779777

That's a massive tactical victory for Ukraine.  Russia has lost an estimated 1,000-1,200 vehicles and 20,000 troops so far.  For them to lose 30-50 vehicles and 1000 troops in a single engagement has to be devastating.

[Travis]

More catastrophic losses for Russia:


The Russians Lost Nearly An Entire Battalion Trying To Cross A River In Eastern Ukraine
David Axe, Forbes

"The better part of a Russian army battalion—50 or so vehicles and up to a thousand troops—in recent days tried to cross a pontoon bridge spanning the Siverskyi Donets River, running west to east between the separatist provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine.
Ukrainian artillery caught them at the river bank—and destroyed them."


https://tinyurl.com/bdd826vj

Deployment and use of a vulnerable asset like a pontoon bridge requires extreme security.  Ukrainian artillery was within range and devasted the Russians.   Putin thinks he's fighting WW2.  Drone and space observation intelligence allow you to coordinate the attack.  It's far easier to defend an obstacle than cross it.

Allegedly a Ukrainian engineering officer from that brigade predicted where they'd build the bridge a couple days prior and they just waited for the crossing to start.

He provided some additional detail as well: https://twitter.com/kms_d4k/status/1524506162728779777

That's a massive tactical victory for Ukraine.  Russia has lost an estimated 1,000-1,200 vehicles and 20,000 troops so far.  For them to lose 30-50 vehicles and 1000 troops in a single engagement has to be devastating.

https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1524742847664173057

73 vehicles identified so far.

[partgypsy]

What a coup. Honestly the Ukrainians are doing so much better than I anticipated. That said, the country is getting devastated. Buildings including hospitals, schools and apartments. Infrastructure (bridges, roads, telecom). And forests and fields burned down. Such an incredible waste.

[zolotiyeruki]

He provided some additional detail as well: https://twitter.com/kms_d4k/status/1524506162728779777

That's a massive tactical victory for Ukraine.  Russia has lost an estimated 1,000-1,200 vehicles and 20,000 troops so far.  For them to lose 30-50 vehicles and 1000 troops in a single engagement has to be devastating.

https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1524742847664173057

73 vehicles identified so far.

Dang, that was a pretty big commitment by the Russian army.

The location of this failed attack appears to be about halfway between Izyum and Luhansk, here.  Going by this map it looks like it may have been an attempt to encircle Ukrainian forces in Severodonetsk and Lysychans'k.

[Travis]

He provided some additional detail as well: https://twitter.com/kms_d4k/status/1524506162728779777

That's a massive tactical victory for Ukraine.  Russia has lost an estimated 1,000-1,200 vehicles and 20,000 troops so far.  For them to lose 30-50 vehicles and 1000 troops in a single engagement has to be devastating.

https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1524742847664173057

73 vehicles identified so far.

Dang, that was a pretty big commitment by the Russian army.

The location of this failed attack appears to be about halfway between Izyum and Luhansk, here.  Going by this map it looks like it may have been an attempt to encircle Ukrainian forces in Severodonetsk and Lysychans'k.

Severodonetsk is still in trouble from the north and the east. Ukrainian forces there are worried they could be encircled. We'll see how the next couple days shape up.

[lemanfan]

What a coup. Honestly the Ukrainians are doing so much better than I anticipated. That said, the country is getting devastated. Buildings including hospitals, schools and apartments. Infrastructure (bridges, roads, telecom). And forests and fields burned down. Such an incredible waste.

This whole thing is so so sad.  And sort of counter productive for Russia even with a cynical view...

Finland has just decided to try to join NATO and on Monday there is a parliamentary debate in Sweden which will most probably result in the same for us.  Not really what Putin hoped, I guess.

[LennStar]

Allegedly a Ukrainian engineering officer from that brigade predicted where they'd build the bridge a couple days prior and they just waited for the crossing to start.

Sun Tsu approves of this. Especially the part (even though it was coincidence) where a part of the troops had already crossed the river.
Clauswitz would have said: Nothing is harder than a retreat from an undefensible position.

[pecunia]

More BS:

How many troops does Russia have available to it in Ukraine?  I found this:

Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, told The Associated Press that over 100,000 Russian troops are currently fighting in Ukraine, including mercenaries from Syria and Libya.Apr 23, 2022

I also found this story saying some don't wish to be sent to the "grinder."  So, they refuse to go.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/12/they-were-furious-the-russian-soldiers-refusing-to-fight-in-ukraine

I did see that Russia has forcefully drafted men in the "breakaway" republics.  I didn't see how many.

How many does Ukraine have? 

Before the war:

In 2021 the size of Ukraine's armed forces, which consists of 246,445 (195,626 military personnel), makes it the second largest in the region after the Russian Armed Forces.

Wikipedia said this:

In early 2014, Ukraine had 130,000 personnel in its armed forces that could be boosted to about one million with reservists.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armed_Forces_of_Ukraine

Since they have called up available people and have about 40,000 foreign volunteers, do they have a million?

Ukrainians are now trained better and are becoming better equipped.  Will the facts of the "special military operation" force Putin to call the war a war to get a greater number of troops?  I'm not sure how he can equip additional troops unless they've got a lot of equipment squirreled away around the Russian Empire.

[Michael in ABQ]

Typically, a unit is combat ineffective after losing about a quarter of it's troops. So if you kill or wound 2-3 Soldiers in a 9-person squad - the rest are needed to evacuate/care for the wounded Soldier. Russia is estimated to have lost 10-15k dead, which means probably 2-3x that wounded. With potentially around 50,000 casualties (killed, wounded, missing) that's a significant percentage of their combat forces.

US Intel estimates are that Russia has lost about 1/4 of its available combat power. Even though their Army has a million troops, many of those are not combat troops (i.e. truck drivers, maintenance, training, etc.). They've lost about 2,000 pieces of equipment between tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery, rockets, trucks, etc. A tank crew without a tank or an artillery crew without an artillery piece aren't going to suddenly become effective infantry.

[sonofsven]

Interesting but not yet confirmed:

https://twitter.com/AlexKhrebet/status/1524361427766726656

I was also seeing unconfirmed reports that in the north Ukraine had pushed the Russians back to the boarder. And there's another dead oligarch.

Who and how? I am still waiting for a defenestration.

Alexander Subbotin, found dead on Sunday in a shaman's home in Mytishchi (just northeast of Moscow). Allegedly went there looking for a hangover cure. All I got, not a great source.

Well he's not hungover.  Success?

[Taran Wanderer]

More catastrophic losses for Russia:


The Russians Lost Nearly An Entire Battalion Trying To Cross A River In Eastern Ukraine
David Axe, Forbes

"The better part of a Russian army battalion—50 or so vehicles and up to a thousand troops—in recent days tried to cross a pontoon bridge spanning the Siverskyi Donets River, running west to east between the separatist provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine.
Ukrainian artillery caught them at the river bank—and destroyed them."


https://tinyurl.com/bdd826vj

I saw this earlier today, and when I saw it again here, I just had to smile.  And then I felt a deep and profound sadness for the waste of it all.  Up to a thousand young Russian men with the potential to build their nation snuffed out.  And for what?  To invade a country that didn't even pose a military threat to satisfy the thirst for power of an unhealthy old man.  It's all so wrong.

[Sibley]

Looks like Ukraine hit another Russian ship, which then caught fire. Does Ukraine even have a navy?

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1524842158330630175

[gooki]

They've lost about 2,000 pieces of equipment between tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery, rockets, trucks, etc. A tank crew without a tank or an artillery crew without an artillery piece aren't going to suddenly become effective infantry.

Try 5,000 pieces of equipment
https://www.minusrus.com/en

[lemanfan]

Looks like Ukraine hit another Russian ship, which then caught fire. Does Ukraine even have a navy?

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1524842158330630175

Yes they do, but not too big these days. Some parts of the navy they once inherited from the USSR was taken by the Russians already back in 2014.  Several Ukrainian naval commanders simply surrendered their ships to Russia back then.  As Wikipedia writes:

As of 24 March 2014, all of the larger ships but one (the Ukrainian frigate Hetman Sahaydachniy) of the Ukrainian Navy were captured by the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

Some of those vessels were later returned but mainly support vessels like tugboats etc from what I saw.  The Netman Sahaydachniy was sinked by the Ukrainians in the beginning of the current invasion to prevent the Russians from taking her.

Apparently they also count coastal rocket-artillery and naval infantry as part of their navy and that part have shown that they still work I think.

[pecunia]

So, do you think that Ukraine will be able to get it's rightful land back?

I can see the Russians sitting off the coast and firing missiles from submarines to mess things up unless they can keep the subs permanently nestled cuddling the bottom of the black sea somehow.  Apparently, there is the belief that the Russkies (referred to as Orcs today) are not believed to be able to rouse a great deal of additional capability.  They have a lot of money but due to sanctions can neither manufacture nor purchase additional arms.  Despite great rhetoric from their media, I think a lot of their people don't really give a sh*t about this war.  There is nothing in it for the Russian people.  They were not attacked.

The Ukrainians have the will to fight, good supply from abroad and available manpower resources.

All the land to be taken back is on the border.  That may be the hardest to take back.  (Location, location and location)

Is this like predicting the market?

[Sibley]

Looks like Ukraine hit another Russian ship, which then caught fire. Does Ukraine even have a navy?

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1524842158330630175

Yes they do, but not too big these days. Some parts of the navy they once inherited from the USSR was taken by the Russians already back in 2014.  Several Ukrainian naval commanders simply surrendered their ships to Russia back then.  As Wikipedia writes:

As of 24 March 2014, all of the larger ships but one (the Ukrainian frigate Hetman Sahaydachniy) of the Ukrainian Navy were captured by the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

Some of those vessels were later returned but mainly support vessels like tugboats etc from what I saw.  The Netman Sahaydachniy was sinked by the Ukrainians in the beginning of the current invasion to prevent the Russians from taking her.

Apparently they also count coastal rocket-artillery and naval infantry as part of their navy and that part have shown that they still work I think.

Love it. Essentially, they have no ships but are still sinking/damaging/destroying Russian ships.