Author Topic: Ukraine  (Read 559884 times)

lemanfan

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1300 on: April 14, 2022, 02:17:02 PM »
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-warns-baltic-nuclear-deployment-if-nato-admits-sweden-finland-2022-04-14/

Russia is saying they'll have to station nukes in the Baltic if Sweden/Finland join NATO.

Russia already have nuke capabilities in Kaliningrad. This is already a reality.  They have the missile capabilities since at least 2016.  They renovated the bunkers for nuke storage in 2018.  Their statements simply don't make sense - both I and others in Sweden, Poland and the Baltic states already live with this threat. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/08/russia-confirms-deployment-of-nuclear-capable-missiles-to-kaliningrad
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/18/kaliningrad-nuclear-bunker-russia-satellite-photos-report

Add the ships and submarines to that and they have even more capabilities (at least on paper).

I live within the reach of those Kaliningrad Iskander missiles right now, i.e. within the 500 km radius they have admitted to have (but some speculate they can reach further). I live 1-2 km from of one primary military targets and 2-3 km from of another so I might be early to check out permanently from the forum if they press the button.

Edit:  after checking a map - they can also reach parts of Germany within that radius, including the city of Berlin, and also the Danish island of Bornholm.

I personally am tired of the Russian scare tactics. NATO might not need Sweden, but Sweden needs credible defenses and NATO might be a part of that. 
« Last Edit: April 14, 2022, 02:39:55 PM by lemanfan »

lemanfan

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1301 on: April 14, 2022, 02:59:58 PM »
This is a rough 500 km circle from the city of Kaliningrad, i.e. the admitted reach of the Iskander-M missiles there.  Place one near St Petersburg too and you'll cover more of Estonia and Finland.

Add ships, subs and planes for further reach into Europe.



« Last Edit: April 14, 2022, 03:03:41 PM by lemanfan »

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1302 on: April 14, 2022, 03:58:15 PM »
People are making fun of Russia right now.  This is a video of the Ukrainians dis-assembling a Russian drone.

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1sPKSMeonxg[/url

I have seen several similar videos.  I have noted that I do not see products manufactured in Russia sold on American store shelves.  I think their manufacturing prowess took a big hit after the Soviet Union morphed into what they have now.

If they would have developed a true democratic government that allowed their people to innovate, I think they would have done better.

I do have an admiration for people who can take every day junk and turn it into some useful object.  This may be an example.

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1303 on: April 14, 2022, 07:19:32 PM »
Wow, the Ukrainians sunk 'Moskva', the Russian flagship in the Black Sea! An encounter with this battleship was recently memorialized in a Ukrainian stamp.  https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/04/14/breaking-russian-flagship-missile-cruiser-moskva-destroyed-in-ukraine/

Russia's saying it was ammo detonation as a result of a fire, but no word what caused the fire.
https://ria.ru/20220414/kreyser-1783435471.html

Whoo! Go Ukraine!
Russia is silent, and Ukraine is claiming they used missiles known to be in their possession.  That's as close as agreement on the facts this will get, I suspect.

"Ukrainian officials claimed that shore-based anti-ship guided missiles hit Moskva which had been operating from the Black Sea Fleet’s headquarters in Sevastopol, Crimea."

https://news.usni.org/2022/04/13/russian-navy-confirms-severe-damage-to-black-sea-cruiser-moskva-crew-abandoned-ship

Well, Moskva has now sunk. Russia was towing it to port, and there was a "storm" and it sank. I've seen some accounts that said there was no storm, but regardless, it sank.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61114843

Edit:
I'm seeing unconfirmed reports that only a fraction of the Moskva's crew was rescued. The ship apparently had a crew of around 500, and reports of 54 being rescued, that would be a huge hit to Russia if true.
« Last Edit: April 14, 2022, 08:54:28 PM by Sibley »

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1304 on: April 14, 2022, 07:28:06 PM »
Wow, the Ukrainians sunk 'Moskva', the Russian flagship in the Black Sea! An encounter with this battleship was recently memorialized in a Ukrainian stamp.  https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/04/14/breaking-russian-flagship-missile-cruiser-moskva-destroyed-in-ukraine/

Russia's saying it was ammo detonation as a result of a fire, but no word what caused the fire.
https://ria.ru/20220414/kreyser-1783435471.html

Whoo! Go Ukraine!
Russia is silent, and Ukraine is claiming they used missiles known to be in their possession.  That's as close as agreement on the facts this will get, I suspect.

"Ukrainian officials claimed that shore-based anti-ship guided missiles hit Moskva which had been operating from the Black Sea Fleet’s headquarters in Sevastopol, Crimea."

https://news.usni.org/2022/04/13/russian-navy-confirms-severe-damage-to-black-sea-cruiser-moskva-crew-abandoned-ship

Well, Moskva has now sunk. Russia was towing it to port, and there was a "storm" and it sank. I've seen some accounts that said there was no storm, but regardless, it sank.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61114843

From your link:

"If the Ukrainian attack is confirmed, the 12,490-tonne Moskva would be the biggest warship to be sunk by enemy action since World War Two. "

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1305 on: April 14, 2022, 08:11:32 PM »
"Ukrainian partisans have likely been active in the Melitopol region since at least mid-March. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that “unknown patriots” killed 70 Russian personnel in Melitopol on April 12, while the Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Ukrainian partisans killed 70 personnel in the area from March 20 to April 12—a more likely report.[22] ISW has previously assessed that growing Ukrainian partisan activities are likely tying down Russian forces in the region but we have not previously seen reports of specific Ukrainian partisan actions."

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-14

Looks like we might have some evidence to support what the residents of the occupied areas think of Russia.

jnw

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1306 on: April 14, 2022, 08:31:54 PM »
If China were to fully support Russia, give them aid etc., what are we going to do sanction China? 

Imagine if we sanctioned China, and they sanctioned us back.  We are so reliant on goods from China right? I mean there is a trade deficit between us.  Wouldn't that destroy us?

Tell me, what would of happened if we just built all our factories here in America and paid all Americans a fair wage, and the dollars circulated within our own country, would be better off?

Why are we so reluctant to hire our own people and want to build tons of factories in other countries?

« Last Edit: April 14, 2022, 08:33:46 PM by JenniferW »

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1307 on: April 14, 2022, 08:51:03 PM »
If China were to fully support Russia, give them aid etc., what are we going to do sanction China? 

Imagine if we sanctioned China, and they sanctioned us back.  We are so reliant on goods from China right? I mean there is a trade deficit between us.  Wouldn't that destroy us?

Tell me, what would of happened if we just built all our factories here in America and paid all Americans a fair wage, and the dollars circulated within our own country, would be better off?

Why are we so reluctant to hire our own people and want to build tons of factories in other countries?

Because its cheaper to have other countries do the manufacturing. Americans tend to demand such pesky things as time off, fair wages, health care, safe working conditions, and not dumping waste all over the environment.

Travis

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1308 on: April 14, 2022, 08:53:12 PM »
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-warns-baltic-nuclear-deployment-if-nato-admits-sweden-finland-2022-04-14/

Russia is saying they'll have to station nukes in the Baltic if Sweden/Finland join NATO.

I saw this on reddit, and some of the comments indicated that there were already nukes at Kaliningrad. Now, my knowledge of geography in that area is vague, but I'm pretty sure that Kaliningrad is in fact on the Baltic Sea, or at least very ne. Conclusion: Russia is blustering.

I'm fairly sure that Sweden and Finland aren't going to take what Russia thinks into consideration in the decision if they want to join NATO or not. So, great job Russia for just reinforcing the arguments FOR joining NATO.

So the missiles will hit in 5 minutes instead of 10? Kind of a distinction without a difference.


Whenever I think of how weird it is to see this part of Russia separated by other countries (the Kaliningrad Oblast) I'm reminded of Alaska and how it's in a similar situation - albeit with much friendlier relations with the intervening country.

Russia is relegated to threatening us with things that have already happened.

Travis

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1309 on: April 14, 2022, 08:57:23 PM »
If China were to fully support Russia, give them aid etc., what are we going to do sanction China? 

Imagine if we sanctioned China, and they sanctioned us back.  We are so reliant on goods from China right? I mean there is a trade deficit between us.  Wouldn't that destroy us?

Tell me, what would of happened if we just built all our factories here in America and paid all Americans a fair wage, and the dollars circulated within our own country, would be better off?

Why are we so reluctant to hire our own people and want to build tons of factories in other countries?

It would suck for both sides. Take a look back at the brief trade war that Trump started with China for a taste of what a sanction war might look like.

For your second point, our economic philosophy is built around what makes the shareholder and consumer happiest. The former wants a high return on investment, and the latter wants their product for the least cost. Both are satisfied by the product being made in cheaper labor markets.
« Last Edit: April 15, 2022, 12:04:13 AM by Travis »

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1310 on: April 14, 2022, 09:16:47 PM »
If China were to fully support Russia, give them aid etc., what are we going to do sanction China? 

Imagine if we sanctioned China, and they sanctioned us back.  We are so reliant on goods from China right? I mean there is a trade deficit between us.  Wouldn't that destroy us?

Tell me, what would of happened if we just built all our factories here in America and paid all Americans a fair wage, and the dollars circulated within our own country, would be better off?

Why are we so reluctant to hire our own people and want to build tons of factories in other countries?

It would suck for both sides. Take a look back at the brief trade war that Trump started with China for a taste of what a sanction war might look like.

For your second point, our economic philosophy is built around what makes the shareholder and consumer happiest. The former wants a high return on investment, and the former wants their product for the least cost. Both are satisfied by the product being made in cheaper labor markets.

That's what I was taught years ago in Macroeconomics.  Years later I had a job where I had to travel around.  I saw a lot of closed factories and run down towns.  I certainly won't get anywhere arguing with the established dogma, but I've got my doubts.  There are intangibles that may not be considered in classical econ.  I won't elaborate further.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1311 on: April 15, 2022, 01:32:48 AM »
The neoliberal dogma is build on theoretical foundations that are proven to be wrong or laughably inaccurate, and from there they build their theoretical model on and on, while shouting at reality it should behave like they think instead of being different again and again.

If China were to fully support Russia, give them aid etc., what are we going to do sanction China? 

Imagine if we sanctioned China, and they sanctioned us back.  We are so reliant on goods from China right? I mean there is a trade deficit between us.  Wouldn't that destroy us?

China can also not afford that. The party is in power as long as it increases the wealth of the people.

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1312 on: April 15, 2022, 07:22:29 AM »
I have seen several similar videos.  I have noted that I do not see products manufactured in Russia sold on American store shelves.  I think their manufacturing prowess took a big hit after the Soviet Union morphed into what they have now.
That is exactly true.  In fact, a huge percentage of their more productive industry was located in....Ukraine.  The Moskva is one of only three ships (now two) of its class.  There was a fourth under construction in...Crimea.  Antonov is based in...Ukraine.  A lot of their engineering/science stuff was in Ukraine, and was lost when the USSR broke up.  Also a lot of military production.

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1313 on: April 15, 2022, 07:41:14 AM »
The neoliberal dogma is build on theoretical foundations that are proven to be wrong or laughably inaccurate, and from there they build their theoretical model on and on, while shouting at reality it should behave like they think instead of being different again and again.

If China were to fully support Russia, give them aid etc., what are we going to do sanction China? 

Imagine if we sanctioned China, and they sanctioned us back.  We are so reliant on goods from China right? I mean there is a trade deficit between us.  Wouldn't that destroy us?

China can also not afford that. The party is in power as long as it increases the wealth of the people.

I'm not saying the communist party is a good thing as they aren't into individual freedom and good stuff democracies have, but working to make the people's lives better is just what government is supposed to do.

Russia has all this oil money and money from selling other resources.  They will have this money whether they treat their people well or treat their people poorly.  They really don't have much incentive to help their people. Those oligarchs make their money either way.  I guess the smart people in Russia have figured this out.  A lot of them are leaving.  Their talents should be welcomed in the "West."  They would have continued to do well if they had stayed out of Ukraine.  I'll bet a lot of those oligarch's have figured that out.  It seems like a lot of them didn't even live in Russia. 

When I saw the videos of soldiers stealing shoes and women's underwear from Ukraine, the thought occurred to me WTF?  It all kind of makes sense.

I guess it's better when the people are in charge like the Europeans have rather than the oligarch thing.

Sorry for the interruption.

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1314 on: April 15, 2022, 08:53:01 AM »
When I saw the videos of soldiers stealing shoes and women's underwear from Ukraine, the thought occurred to me WTF?  It all kind of makes sense.
I think it's worth pointing out that there are similarities between Russian conscripts and what happened in the US in the late 60's during the Vietnam war.  Those who could dodge the draft, did.  Those without the resources to avoid it, got drafted.  What I've heard is that the Russian conscripts are generally from very, very poor areas of the country, with very little exposure to western media or knowledge of western lifestyle.  Hence we hear stories about Russian POWs being amazed at how well the Ukrainians live...and Ukraine has the second lowest GDP per capital of all of Europe, barely edging out Moldova!

It kinda reminds me of a scene in Hunt for Red October (the book, since this part isn't included in the movie), where the rescued Russian sailors are bussed from a naval port through a major city, and they are all amazed at how many people own cars, single-family homes, etc.

Tyson

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1315 on: April 15, 2022, 08:58:15 AM »
The neoliberal dogma is build on theoretical foundations that are proven to be wrong or laughably inaccurate, and from there they build their theoretical model on and on, while shouting at reality it should behave like they think instead of being different again and again.

If China were to fully support Russia, give them aid etc., what are we going to do sanction China? 

Imagine if we sanctioned China, and they sanctioned us back.  We are so reliant on goods from China right? I mean there is a trade deficit between us.  Wouldn't that destroy us?

China can also not afford that. The party is in power as long as it increases the wealth of the people.

I'm not saying the communist party is a good thing as they aren't into individual freedom and good stuff democracies have, but working to make the people's lives better is just what government is supposed to do.

Russia has all this oil money and money from selling other resources.  They will have this money whether they treat their people well or treat their people poorly.  They really don't have much incentive to help their people. Those oligarchs make their money either way.  I guess the smart people in Russia have figured this out.  A lot of them are leaving.  Their talents should be welcomed in the "West."  They would have continued to do well if they had stayed out of Ukraine.  I'll bet a lot of those oligarch's have figured that out.  It seems like a lot of them didn't even live in Russia. 

When I saw the videos of soldiers stealing shoes and women's underwear from Ukraine, the thought occurred to me WTF?  It all kind of makes sense.

I guess it's better when the people are in charge like the Europeans have rather than the oligarch thing.

Sorry for the interruption.

Yes, being accountable to the people pretty much always results in better outcomes. 

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1316 on: April 15, 2022, 02:51:06 PM »
Imagine if we sanctioned China, and they sanctioned us back.  We are so reliant on goods from China right? I mean there is a trade deficit between us.  Wouldn't that destroy us?
Using CIA World Factbook data for 2019, the U.S. losing all of China's imports would have a 2.6% GDP hit to the U.S. economy.  For China, losing it's biggest export partner would cause a 2% hit (using PPP GDP, and not official exchange rates - it appears China's economy is slightly larger, but the numbers don't add up)
https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/china/#economy
https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/united-states/#economy

But China's problem is actually much, much worse when you look at imports.  The problem is that China's import partners (South Korea 9% Japan 8% Australia 7% Germany 7% U.S. 7% Taiwan 7%) are all allied more with the United States than China.  They lose that entire list, giving a 5% impact relative to GDP.

If unemployment spikes by 7% in China (the GDP impact), that's over 50 million unemployed people.  In current lockdowns people are complaining of starvation and no access to hospitals... add unemployment and it becomes a very risky combination for the Chinese leadership.  Since there's no elected leaders in China, their changes of power are all or nothing.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1317 on: April 15, 2022, 03:16:55 PM »
I seem to recall Russia lying about it's border exercises, and then invading Ukraine.  I saw the Ukrainian movie theater with nothing else around except the word "children" written in the parking lot.. directly hit by Russia, who then lied about it being intentional.  The train station missile didn't fully detonate, so Russian writing with "for the children" was still visible on it.  All of this is context for me when Russia makes any kind of claim.

I've seen multiple news reports where Russia and Ukraine are treated as equally trustworthy, where statements on both sides are simply repeated.  And they probably get their information from somewhere else!  They don't add context about Russia's prior lying, or even assign an 80-95% chance Russia is lying.  They just quote Russia, a known source for fake news.

And then, later, these same media stations are going to warn me of the dangers of fake news.  They won't mean to be ironic, and they won't reflect on how they report everything Russia says word for word.  Are there any news websites that provide context?  Do I need to search for Ukrainian news stations?

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1318 on: April 15, 2022, 04:07:00 PM »
I seem to recall Russia lying about it's border exercises, and then invading Ukraine.  I saw the Ukrainian movie theater with nothing else around except the word "children" written in the parking lot.. directly hit by Russia, who then lied about it being intentional.  The train station missile didn't fully detonate, so Russian writing with "for the children" was still visible on it.  All of this is context for me when Russia makes any kind of claim.

I've seen multiple news reports where Russia and Ukraine are treated as equally trustworthy, where statements on both sides are simply repeated.  And they probably get their information from somewhere else!  They don't add context about Russia's prior lying, or even assign an 80-95% chance Russia is lying.  They just quote Russia, a known source for fake news.

And then, later, these same media stations are going to warn me of the dangers of fake news.  They won't mean to be ironic, and they won't reflect on how they report everything Russia says word for word.  Are there any news websites that provide context?  Do I need to search for Ukrainian news stations?

Honestly, one of the best ways I've found is to leverage social media. Yes, there's a lot of crap, but all it really takes is one person to comment with the missing context to tell me what to search for (assuming I have time, so I generally mentally assign "unconfirmed" to anything until I've checked). wikipedia is helpful.

I use twitter and reddit for this. Reddit - mostly the UkrainianConflict sub, but other things that end up on All. On twitter, there's a handful of users I've followed - they're all referenced somewhere in this thread. I do mentally assign "reliable" areas for each of them. Trent for example is reliable on logistics, crapshoot on the rest. Kamil is reliable on culture/history/demographics, but not the military. OISNT (I got that wrong probably) is good with hard numbers, they do video confirmation of destroyed units.

Anything that is a Russian source I assume they're not telling the truth, or not telling the whole truth. If they say the ship got hit then yes it got hit, but it's probably way worse than they admitted. Denial of a hit? Probably happened. Claimed a hit? Probably not what happened.

The Ukrainian sources, from what I can tell, absolutely are shading things and introducing propaganda. But they're closer to the truth than Russia, so I'll go with a soft-unconfirmed. Interestingly, I've seen multiple sources saying that the Ukrainian's numbers on Russian losses (which were much higher than anyone else's) were probably the most accurate, and even so they were conservative.

Reuters keeps things so short that the facts are there (generally), but they don't have the context to place the facts into the bigger picture. The rest of the media outlets are their usual spectrum of good to bad, or just behind the times. Washington Post is annoying the crap out of me with their format, I'm going to dump them and switch to NY Times eventually.

If you want assessment of the actual military stuff - The Institute of War, on twitter and they have a website. I've seen some good articles from various sources - Atlantic, etc, but I rely on social media to float them to me.

There are two Pravda (spelling?) websites. One is Russian, and is very much not believable. The other is Ukrainian, and much better.

Note that there are whole categories of things I am not seeking out and do not want to see, so I don't have good sources. Details on the innumerable atrocities for example.

In short: I don't have one source. I have a constellation of sources which I use to get a broad picture and then I look at specific things in more detail, and I am NOT trying to have an in depth knowledge of what's going on. I like my sanity.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1319 on: April 15, 2022, 04:21:03 PM »
I seem to recall Russia lying about it's border exercises, and then invading Ukraine.  I saw the Ukrainian movie theater with nothing else around except the word "children" written in the parking lot.. directly hit by Russia, who then lied about it being intentional.  The train station missile didn't fully detonate, so Russian writing with "for the children" was still visible on it.  All of this is context for me when Russia makes any kind of claim.

I've seen multiple news reports where Russia and Ukraine are treated as equally trustworthy, where statements on both sides are simply repeated.  And they probably get their information from somewhere else!  They don't add context about Russia's prior lying, or even assign an 80-95% chance Russia is lying.  They just quote Russia, a known source for fake news.

And then, later, these same media stations are going to warn me of the dangers of fake news.  They won't mean to be ironic, and they won't reflect on how they report everything Russia says word for word.  Are there any news websites that provide context?  Do I need to search for Ukrainian news stations?
Try the big news agencies: AP, Reuters, Agence France Presse.  Or the BBC, who are required by UK law to be accurate and unbiased.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1320 on: April 15, 2022, 08:25:11 PM »
CNN did an interview with Zelensky, not sure what date but very recent. Starts with asking him about Moskva, then moves on.

They asked how many people had died - civilians and military. On civilians, he said they just don't know how many have died in blockaded areas, and he didn't give a number for what they did know. He said that 2500-3000 Ukrainian military had died, and 10,000 injured. Compared to Russian military at 19-20k lost.

For their sake, I'll hope he's telling the truth about the casualties, but I suspect he's downplaying those numbers.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/15/politics/tapper-zelensky-interview-cnntv/index.html


Whoever controls the official Defence of Ukraine twitter account has some trolling talent:
"The Ministry of Defence of Ukraine reminds the russian navy that the Black Sea straits are closed for entry only. The part of your fleet that remains afloat still has a way out."
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1514941186397683715
« Last Edit: April 15, 2022, 08:41:02 PM by Sibley »

Travis

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1321 on: April 15, 2022, 08:40:11 PM »
Imagine if we sanctioned China, and they sanctioned us back.  We are so reliant on goods from China right? I mean there is a trade deficit between us.  Wouldn't that destroy us?
Using CIA World Factbook data for 2019, the U.S. losing all of China's imports would have a 2.6% GDP hit to the U.S. economy.  For China, losing it's biggest export partner would cause a 2% hit (using PPP GDP, and not official exchange rates - it appears China's economy is slightly larger, but the numbers don't add up)
https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/china/#economy
https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/united-states/#economy

But China's problem is actually much, much worse when you look at imports.  The problem is that China's import partners (South Korea 9% Japan 8% Australia 7% Germany 7% U.S. 7% Taiwan 7%) are all allied more with the United States than China.  They lose that entire list, giving a 5% impact relative to GDP.

If unemployment spikes by 7% in China (the GDP impact), that's over 50 million unemployed people.  In current lockdowns people are complaining of starvation and no access to hospitals... add unemployment and it becomes a very risky combination for the Chinese leadership.  Since there's no elected leaders in China, their changes of power are all or nothing.

It's also important to look at what products are in that 2%. We sell a lot of food to China.

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1322 on: April 15, 2022, 09:12:25 PM »
Imagine if we sanctioned China, and they sanctioned us back.  We are so reliant on goods from China right? I mean there is a trade deficit between us.  Wouldn't that destroy us?
Using CIA World Factbook data for 2019, the U.S. losing all of China's imports would have a 2.6% GDP hit to the U.S. economy.  For China, losing it's biggest export partner would cause a 2% hit (using PPP GDP, and not official exchange rates - it appears China's economy is slightly larger, but the numbers don't add up)
https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/china/#economy
https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/united-states/#economy

But China's problem is actually much, much worse when you look at imports.  The problem is that China's import partners (South Korea 9% Japan 8% Australia 7% Germany 7% U.S. 7% Taiwan 7%) are all allied more with the United States than China.  They lose that entire list, giving a 5% impact relative to GDP.

If unemployment spikes by 7% in China (the GDP impact), that's over 50 million unemployed people.  In current lockdowns people are complaining of starvation and no access to hospitals... add unemployment and it becomes a very risky combination for the Chinese leadership.  Since there's no elected leaders in China, their changes of power are all or nothing.

It's also important to look at what products are in that 2%. We sell a lot of food to China.

It's also important to look at the products we buy from China, halloween costumes, Christmas decorations, decorative objects and a lot of stuff that becomes thrift store donations or trash.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1323 on: April 15, 2022, 09:21:04 PM »
Imagine if we sanctioned China, and they sanctioned us back.  We are so reliant on goods from China right? I mean there is a trade deficit between us.  Wouldn't that destroy us?
Using CIA World Factbook data for 2019, the U.S. losing all of China's imports would have a 2.6% GDP hit to the U.S. economy.  For China, losing it's biggest export partner would cause a 2% hit (using PPP GDP, and not official exchange rates - it appears China's economy is slightly larger, but the numbers don't add up)
https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/china/#economy
https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/united-states/#economy

But China's problem is actually much, much worse when you look at imports.  The problem is that China's import partners (South Korea 9% Japan 8% Australia 7% Germany 7% U.S. 7% Taiwan 7%) are all allied more with the United States than China.  They lose that entire list, giving a 5% impact relative to GDP.

If unemployment spikes by 7% in China (the GDP impact), that's over 50 million unemployed people.  In current lockdowns people are complaining of starvation and no access to hospitals... add unemployment and it becomes a very risky combination for the Chinese leadership.  Since there's no elected leaders in China, their changes of power are all or nothing.

It's also important to look at what products are in that 2%. We sell a lot of food to China.

It's also important to look at the products we buy from China, halloween costumes, Christmas decorations, decorative objects and a lot of stuff that becomes thrift store donations or trash.

Yeah, we don't really need a good chunk of that stuff. Want? Yes. Need? No.
https://www.junglescout.com/blog/us-imports-from-china/

Fresh Bread

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1324 on: April 15, 2022, 10:11:23 PM »
Imagine if we sanctioned China, and they sanctioned us back.  We are so reliant on goods from China right? I mean there is a trade deficit between us.  Wouldn't that destroy us?
Using CIA World Factbook data for 2019, the U.S. losing all of China's imports would have a 2.6% GDP hit to the U.S. economy.  For China, losing it's biggest export partner would cause a 2% hit (using PPP GDP, and not official exchange rates - it appears China's economy is slightly larger, but the numbers don't add up)
https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/china/#economy
https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/united-states/#economy

But China's problem is actually much, much worse when you look at imports.  The problem is that China's import partners (South Korea 9% Japan 8% Australia 7% Germany 7% U.S. 7% Taiwan 7%) are all allied more with the United States than China.  They lose that entire list, giving a 5% impact relative to GDP.

If unemployment spikes by 7% in China (the GDP impact), that's over 50 million unemployed people.  In current lockdowns people are complaining of starvation and no access to hospitals... add unemployment and it becomes a very risky combination for the Chinese leadership.  Since there's no elected leaders in China, their changes of power are all or nothing.

It's also important to look at what products are in that 2%. We sell a lot of food to China.

It's also important to look at the products we buy from China, halloween costumes, Christmas decorations, decorative objects and a lot of stuff that becomes thrift store donations or trash.

Apologies, because I'm sure you aren't, but I find comments like that a little bit racist. Things I bought over the last year that were made in China include my phone, laptop, the electric car we have on order, clothing, athletic shoes. I even bought a book from the US that arrived via China's post system so it must have been warehoused there? None of it is the tat you talk about, China just happens to make about everything I buy in Australia. That obviously has huge implications for sanctions, we had our own problems during the trade war with tariffs and coal ships being stopped.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1325 on: April 16, 2022, 12:28:15 AM »
I seem to recall Russia lying about it's border exercises, and then invading Ukraine.  I saw the Ukrainian movie theater with nothing else around except the word "children" written in the parking lot.. directly hit by Russia, who then lied about it being intentional.  The train station missile didn't fully detonate, so Russian writing with "for the children" was still visible on it.  All of this is context for me when Russia makes any kind of claim.

I've seen multiple news reports where Russia and Ukraine are treated as equally trustworthy, where statements on both sides are simply repeated.  And they probably get their information from somewhere else!  They don't add context about Russia's prior lying, or even assign an 80-95% chance Russia is lying.  They just quote Russia, a known source for fake news.

And then, later, these same media stations are going to warn me of the dangers of fake news.  They won't mean to be ironic, and they won't reflect on how they report everything Russia says word for word.  Are there any news websites that provide context?  Do I need to search for Ukrainian news stations?
Try the big news agencies: AP, Reuters, Agence France Presse.  Or the BBC, who are required by UK law to be accurate and unbiased.
The BBC quotes Russia without context - you can see their story earlier in this thread.  I didn't quote it because my complaint has nothing to do with the poster who brought it up.

At least with AP & Reuters I expect raw "tape recorder" type reporting, but I certainly do not expect context of Russia's prior lying in their articles.  I don't recall the specifics for DW & France 24, but believe they also left out context.  Personally, I know the context - I'm just frustrated that for weeks Russian leadership gets quoted with no asterisk about their prior lies.

The Russian army left behind thousands of executed civilians, which were proved by satellite images to have been there when the Russians occupied Ukrainian cities.  And yet when Russia dreamed up a conspiracy theory... the news media published it.  And that gave China the cover to just say it needs to be investigated, instead of being forced into a corner for not blaming Russia for slaughtering civilians.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1326 on: April 16, 2022, 12:38:18 AM »
Imagine if we sanctioned China, and they sanctioned us back.  We are so reliant on goods from China right? I mean there is a trade deficit between us.  Wouldn't that destroy us?
But China's problem is actually much, much worse when you look at imports.  The problem is that China's import partners (South Korea 9% Japan 8% Australia 7% Germany 7% U.S. 7% Taiwan 7%) are all allied more with the United States than China.  They lose that entire list, giving a 5% impact relative to GDP.
It's also important to look at what products are in that 2%. We sell a lot of food to China.
It's also important to look at the products we buy from China, halloween costumes, Christmas decorations, decorative objects and a lot of stuff that becomes thrift store donations or trash.
Apologies, because I'm sure you aren't, but I find comments like that a little bit racist. Things I bought over the last year that were made in China include my phone, laptop, the electric car we have on order, clothing, athletic shoes. I even bought a book from the US that arrived via China's post system so it must have been warehoused there? None of it is the tat you talk about, China just happens to make about everything I buy in Australia. That obviously has huge implications for sanctions, we had our own problems during the trade war with tariffs and coal ships being stopped.
If China supports Russia, and various countries sanction China, that strikes me as geopolitical, not racist.  But if you prefer... we should buy from allies Japan, South Korea and Taiwan rather than China.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is an autocrat attacking a democracy.  It's a repeat of Russian attacks on Georgia and annexation of Crimea.  In the background, China keeps making threats to take Taiwan by force - another autocrat threatening a democracy.  China has harassed neighbors over maratime claims, and refuses to agree to the results of an international decision on where the lines are drawn.  Eventually this becomes democracy vs autocrats, I don't think racism is the main consideration.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1327 on: April 16, 2022, 01:14:48 AM »
Imagine if we sanctioned China, and they sanctioned us back.  We are so reliant on goods from China right? I mean there is a trade deficit between us.  Wouldn't that destroy us?
But China's problem is actually much, much worse when you look at imports.  The problem is that China's import partners (South Korea 9% Japan 8% Australia 7% Germany 7% U.S. 7% Taiwan 7%) are all allied more with the United States than China.  They lose that entire list, giving a 5% impact relative to GDP.
It's also important to look at what products are in that 2%. We sell a lot of food to China.
It's also important to look at the products we buy from China, halloween costumes, Christmas decorations, decorative objects and a lot of stuff that becomes thrift store donations or trash.
Apologies, because I'm sure you aren't, but I find comments like that a little bit racist. Things I bought over the last year that were made in China include my phone, laptop, the electric car we have on order, clothing, athletic shoes. I even bought a book from the US that arrived via China's post system so it must have been warehoused there? None of it is the tat you talk about, China just happens to make about everything I buy in Australia. That obviously has huge implications for sanctions, we had our own problems during the trade war with tariffs and coal ships being stopped.
If China supports Russia, and various countries sanction China, that strikes me as geopolitical, not racist.  But if you prefer... we should buy from allies Japan, South Korea and Taiwan rather than China.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is an autocrat attacking a democracy.  It's a repeat of Russian attacks on Georgia and annexation of Crimea.  In the background, China keeps making threats to take Taiwan by force - another autocrat threatening a democracy.  China has harassed neighbors over maratime claims, and refuses to agree to the results of an international decision on where the lines are drawn.  Eventually this becomes democracy vs autocrats, I don't think racism is the main consideration.

No you misunderstand me - I was saying that the implication that China only makes tat is a bit racist. They make quite a lot of high quality items.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1328 on: April 16, 2022, 02:22:42 AM »
Apologies, because I'm sure you aren't, but I find comments like that a little bit racist. Things I bought over the last year that were made in China include my phone, laptop, the electric car we have on order, clothing, athletic shoes. I even bought a book from the US that arrived via China's post system so it must have been warehoused there? None of it is the tat you talk about, China just happens to make about everything I buy in Australia. That obviously has huge implications for sanctions, we had our own problems during the trade war with tariffs and coal ships being stopped.

Yeah I sure buy a lot of stuff from China as well including my Apple products.   My clothing etc..
Question for ya, if China and the U.S. become bitter towards each other with sanctions and what not, will Australia side with China or the USA?  I saw this one video last night where this Australian architect is hired by China to help design a very large area.  They are always constantly building.. it's pretty impressive looking at all these 4k walking tours of the various cities including Shangai. Shanghai makes most of America look like a third world country lol.

Fresh Bread

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1329 on: April 16, 2022, 02:46:25 AM »
Apologies, because I'm sure you aren't, but I find comments like that a little bit racist. Things I bought over the last year that were made in China include my phone, laptop, the electric car we have on order, clothing, athletic shoes. I even bought a book from the US that arrived via China's post system so it must have been warehoused there? None of it is the tat you talk about, China just happens to make about everything I buy in Australia. That obviously has huge implications for sanctions, we had our own problems during the trade war with tariffs and coal ships being stopped.

Yeah I sure buy a lot of stuff from China as well including my Apple products.   My clothing etc..
Question for ya, if China and the U.S. become bitter towards each other with sanctions and what not, will Australia side with China or the USA?  I saw this one video last night where this Australian architect is hired by China to help design a very large area.  They are always constantly building.. it's pretty impressive looking at all these 4k walking tours of the various cities including Shangai. Shanghai makes most of America look like a third world country lol.

The answer is the USA, but it would be very delicate. If we can't buy their goods prices will rise and they are a major buyer of our energy, metal ores & food. We have little manufacturing here. As an example, we grow cotton here but it goes overseas to be made into fabric. A lot of food gets grown here and processed there, although we do have some capability there at least.  Even the toilet paper I buy (Who Gives A Crap) is made there!

We have an election coming up and I guess the outcome of that could change the exact way things are handled.  China has recently made a move into the Pacific by signing a security deal with the Solomon Islands which has led to some nervous diplomatic talks.
« Last Edit: April 16, 2022, 02:49:54 AM by Fresh Bread »

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1330 on: April 16, 2022, 03:07:16 AM »
CNN did an interview with Zelensky, not sure what date but very recent. Starts with asking him about Moskva, then moves on.

They asked how many people had died - civilians and military. On civilians, he said they just don't know how many have died in blockaded areas, and he didn't give a number for what they did know. He said that 2500-3000 Ukrainian military had died, and 10,000 injured. Compared to Russian military at 19-20k lost.

For their sake, I'll hope he's telling the truth about the casualties, but I suspect he's downplaying those numbers.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/15/politics/tapper-zelensky-interview-cnntv/index.html


Whoever controls the official Defence of Ukraine twitter account has some trolling talent:
"The Ministry of Defence of Ukraine reminds the russian navy that the Black Sea straits are closed for entry only. The part of your fleet that remains afloat still has a way out."
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1514941186397683715
Oh yes, the Ukrainians are trolling hard. Did you hear about the postal stamp "Fuck yourself, war ship"? It started to sell 2 days before the ship had an "accident" and now there are long lines of people wanting to buy that stamp.
As a writer, this is seriously tear territory, because A) you would never dare to write such things and B) if you did, your editor would kick you out the door for writing such unbelievable crap.

In regards of the casualities, I do think the Ukrainians play down their own, but I dont' think they are increasing Russias losses (much). The defender always has a huge bonus and teh Ukrainians seem to be well trained in the type of warfare they do - why the Russians seem to be totally overwehlmed by their situation.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1331 on: April 16, 2022, 05:34:30 AM »
Imagine if we sanctioned China, and they sanctioned us back.  We are so reliant on goods from China right? I mean there is a trade deficit between us.  Wouldn't that destroy us?
Using CIA World Factbook data for 2019, the U.S. losing all of China's imports would have a 2.6% GDP hit to the U.S. economy.  For China, losing it's biggest export partner would cause a 2% hit (using PPP GDP, and not official exchange rates - it appears China's economy is slightly larger, but the numbers don't add up)
https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/china/#economy
https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/united-states/#economy

But China's problem is actually much, much worse when you look at imports.  The problem is that China's import partners (South Korea 9% Japan 8% Australia 7% Germany 7% U.S. 7% Taiwan 7%) are all allied more with the United States than China.  They lose that entire list, giving a 5% impact relative to GDP.

If unemployment spikes by 7% in China (the GDP impact), that's over 50 million unemployed people.  In current lockdowns people are complaining of starvation and no access to hospitals... add unemployment and it becomes a very risky combination for the Chinese leadership.  Since there's no elected leaders in China, their changes of power are all or nothing.

It's also important to look at what products are in that 2%. We sell a lot of food to China.

It's also important to look at the products we buy from China, halloween costumes, Christmas decorations, decorative objects and a lot of stuff that becomes thrift store donations or trash.

Apologies, because I'm sure you aren't, but I find comments like that a little bit racist. Things I bought over the last year that were made in China include my phone, laptop, the electric car we have on order, clothing, athletic shoes. I even bought a book from the US that arrived via China's post system so it must have been warehoused there? None of it is the tat you talk about, China just happens to make about everything I buy in Australia. That obviously has huge implications for sanctions, we had our own problems during the trade war with tariffs and coal ships being stopped.

Yeh, I could be racist.  However, definitely not towards the Chinese.  I've seen these hoards of refugees from Ukraine and it bothered me.  So, the point was made to me that the refugees from Afghanistan, Iraq, Central America, Africa,  etc. did not bother me as much as those flooding into Poland.  Sorry, it's true.  However, don't worry I will not attend the Klan convention this year or any year.  Nor will I be going to New Black Panther meetings.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1332 on: April 16, 2022, 07:59:37 AM »
Speaking of context, did anyone happen to watch the one hour Frontline documentary on Putin's rise to power?  It was excellent.  Described his KGB background and how he rose to succeed Brezhnev.  While Brezhnev had actually started some democratic reforms, Putin quashed them and has continued to crack down harshly on any dissent.  Even mild satirical criticism of him on TV comedy shows was quashed and the director was arrested.

Also I wonder if Putin's takeover of Crimea in 2014 - which was not repelled by the West, in hindsight a terrible mistake - had emboldened him to believe he could walk into Ukraine just as easily.  (there's a chilling part of the documentary showing a televised session with his advisers where he sits in the front of the room and they all sit facing him like schoolchildren, and he asks them to speak one by one on whether they are for or against the invasion of Ukraine.  They all look petrified and not one dared to say they were against it.) 

Bottom line, this war is caused by a dangerous, paranoid and probably unhinged madman.  I think this means this crisis will continue until Putin is satisfied with some concession to his ego, or he dies a natural or unnatural death.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1333 on: April 16, 2022, 08:29:14 AM »
I seem to recall Russia lying about it's border exercises, and then invading Ukraine.  I saw the Ukrainian movie theater with nothing else around except the word "children" written in the parking lot.. directly hit by Russia, who then lied about it being intentional.  The train station missile didn't fully detonate, so Russian writing with "for the children" was still visible on it.  All of this is context for me when Russia makes any kind of claim.

I've seen multiple news reports where Russia and Ukraine are treated as equally trustworthy, where statements on both sides are simply repeated.  And they probably get their information from somewhere else!  They don't add context about Russia's prior lying, or even assign an 80-95% chance Russia is lying.  They just quote Russia, a known source for fake news.

And then, later, these same media stations are going to warn me of the dangers of fake news.  They won't mean to be ironic, and they won't reflect on how they report everything Russia says word for word.  Are there any news websites that provide context?  Do I need to search for Ukrainian news stations?
Try the big news agencies: AP, Reuters, Agence France Presse.  Or the BBC, who are required by UK law to be accurate and unbiased.
The BBC quotes Russia without context - you can see their story earlier in this thread.  I didn't quote it because my complaint has nothing to do with the poster who brought it up.

At least with AP & Reuters I expect raw "tape recorder" type reporting, but I certainly do not expect context of Russia's prior lying in their articles.  I don't recall the specifics for DW & France 24, but believe they also left out context.  Personally, I know the context - I'm just frustrated that for weeks Russian leadership gets quoted with no asterisk about their prior lies.

The Russian army left behind thousands of executed civilians, which were proved by satellite images to have been there when the Russians occupied Ukrainian cities.  And yet when Russia dreamed up a conspiracy theory... the news media published it.  And that gave China the cover to just say it needs to be investigated, instead of being forced into a corner for not blaming Russia for slaughtering civilians.
You've got a choice: either "purely factual" reporting - which has to include the facts of what Russia has said - or "facts plus commentary" - which may or may not report Russian statements and may or may not include commentary on whether Russia is lying. Some news sites may report a Russian statement when it is made and then do a fact-finding follow up on whether the statement is true or not.  Or I suppose there may be sites which say "here is a Russian statement which is a lie" without doing the fact finding on that first.  Your choice which you go for, but the options are out there for you.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1334 on: April 16, 2022, 09:31:57 AM »
https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1515343262143455243

Deputy Commander, Russian 8th Combined Arms Army killed in action. The Tweet is his funeral, which means he died a few days ago and the Ukrainians didn't notice they got him. 8th CAA controls the southern part of the Donbass region.


Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1335 on: April 16, 2022, 10:19:46 AM »
https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1515343262143455243

Deputy Commander, Russian 8th Combined Arms Army killed in action. The Tweet is his funeral, which means he died a few days ago and the Ukrainians didn't notice they got him. 8th CAA controls the southern part of the Donbass region.

I'm seeing various things saying that the guy in charge of the navy was arrested. Also that Putin is purging from the intelligence service.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1336 on: April 16, 2022, 02:50:48 PM »
Speaking of context, did anyone happen to watch the one hour Frontline documentary on Putin's rise to power?  It was excellent.  Described his KGB background and how he rose to succeed Brezhnev.  While Brezhnev had actually started some democratic reforms, Putin quashed them and has continued to crack down harshly on any dissent.  Even mild satirical criticism of him on TV comedy shows was quashed and the director was arrested.

Also I wonder if Putin's takeover of Crimea in 2014 - which was not repelled by the West, in hindsight a terrible mistake - had emboldened him to believe he could walk into Ukraine just as easily.  (there's a chilling part of the documentary showing a televised session with his advisers where he sits in the front of the room and they all sit facing him like schoolchildren, and he asks them to speak one by one on whether they are for or against the invasion of Ukraine.  They all look petrified and not one dared to say they were against it.) 

Bottom line, this war is caused by a dangerous, paranoid and probably unhinged madman.  I think this means this crisis will continue until Putin is satisfied with some concession to his ego, or he dies a natural or unnatural death.

Yes, I watched that show.  It made it seem like there is no way to change Putin’s mind.  He is a determined man of whom everyone is afraid.  He is setting the country back to Tzarist times and their statement to the effect that Brezhnev would be appalled at this war struck me as right.

Personally, I hope Putin meets an unnatural end and very soon.

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1337 on: April 16, 2022, 05:06:50 PM »
Speaking of context, did anyone happen to watch the one hour Frontline documentary on Putin's rise to power?  It was excellent.  Described his KGB background and how he rose to succeed Brezhnev.  While Brezhnev had actually started some democratic reforms, Putin quashed them and has continued to crack down harshly on any dissent.  Even mild satirical criticism of him on TV comedy shows was quashed and the director was arrested.

Also I wonder if Putin's takeover of Crimea in 2014 - which was not repelled by the West, in hindsight a terrible mistake - had emboldened him to believe he could walk into Ukraine just as easily.  (there's a chilling part of the documentary showing a televised session with his advisers where he sits in the front of the room and they all sit facing him like schoolchildren, and he asks them to speak one by one on whether they are for or against the invasion of Ukraine.  They all look petrified and not one dared to say they were against it.) 

Bottom line, this war is caused by a dangerous, paranoid and probably unhinged madman.  I think this means this crisis will continue until Putin is satisfied with some concession to his ego, or he dies a natural or unnatural death.

Yes, I watched that show.  It made it seem like there is no way to change Putin’s mind.  He is a determined man of whom everyone is afraid.  He is setting the country back to Tzarist times and their statement to the effect that Brezhnev would be appalled at this war struck me as right.

Personally, I hope Putin meets an unnatural end and very soon.

A natural end would be fine too.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1338 on: April 16, 2022, 07:11:27 PM »
https://www.businessinsider.com/7000-unclaimed-dead-russian-soldiers-left-in-morgues-ukraine-says-2022-4?utm_source=reddit.com

Russia isn't claiming their dead, and Ukraine is picking the bodies up off the ground. 7000 of them so far.

Why don't they just bury them? It's perfectly reasonable to do a decent burial, even a mass grave, after they've repeatedly tried to transfer the bodies back to Russia. Take pictures, assign ID numbers, associate names if possible, bury all of them and record where each is buried. That's not disrespectful, it's practical in the face of the Russian government's disrespect. Ukraine doesn't need to strain their resources holding thousands of corpses indefinitely.
« Last Edit: April 16, 2022, 07:22:29 PM by Sibley »

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1339 on: April 16, 2022, 07:28:20 PM »
https://www.businessinsider.com/7000-unclaimed-dead-russian-soldiers-left-in-morgues-ukraine-says-2022-4?utm_source=reddit.com

Russia isn't claiming their dead, and Ukraine is picking the bodies up off the ground. 7000 of them so far.

Why don't they just bury them? It's perfectly reasonable to do a decent burial, even a mass grave, after they've repeatedly tried to transfer the bodies back to Russia. Take pictures, assign ID numbers, associate names if possible, bury all of them and record where each is buried. That's not disrespectful, it's practical in the face of the Russian government's disrespect. Ukraine doesn't need to strain their resources holding thousands of corpses indefinitely.

Russia has claimed many less dead than their losses happen to be.  Is this a way to help justify denying the additional losses?

Do they simply not care to give their loved ones the chance for a decent funeral?

Making arrangements to pick those bodies up just doesn't seem that hard.  Undesirable, but not hard.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1340 on: April 16, 2022, 08:03:17 PM »
At least with AP & Reuters I expect raw "tape recorder" type reporting, but I certainly do not expect context of Russia's prior lying in their articles.  I don't recall the specifics for DW & France 24, but believe they also left out context.  Personally, I know the context - I'm just frustrated that for weeks Russian leadership gets quoted with no asterisk about their prior lies.
You've got a choice: either "purely factual" reporting - which has to include the facts of what Russia has said - or "facts plus commentary" - which may or may not report Russian statements and may or may not include commentary on whether Russia is lying. Some news sites may report a Russian statement when it is made and then do a fact-finding follow up on whether the statement is true or not.  Or I suppose there may be sites which say "here is a Russian statement which is a lie" without doing the fact finding on that first.  Your choice which you go for, but the options are out there for you.
Facts plus expert commentary would be my preference - but when I search for that I get a number of universities, not news sites.  I'll probably take Jennifer's lead and check reddit for crowd sourced news & commentary.

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1341 on: April 16, 2022, 08:53:33 PM »
At least with AP & Reuters I expect raw "tape recorder" type reporting, but I certainly do not expect context of Russia's prior lying in their articles.  I don't recall the specifics for DW & France 24, but believe they also left out context.  Personally, I know the context - I'm just frustrated that for weeks Russian leadership gets quoted with no asterisk about their prior lies.
You've got a choice: either "purely factual" reporting - which has to include the facts of what Russia has said - or "facts plus commentary" - which may or may not report Russian statements and may or may not include commentary on whether Russia is lying. Some news sites may report a Russian statement when it is made and then do a fact-finding follow up on whether the statement is true or not.  Or I suppose there may be sites which say "here is a Russian statement which is a lie" without doing the fact finding on that first.  Your choice which you go for, but the options are out there for you.
Facts plus expert commentary would be my preference - but when I search for that I get a number of universities, not news sites.  I'll probably take Jennifer's lead and check reddit for crowd sourced news & commentary.

You mean me? And since I'm on my laptop and have all my links:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/ (idiots here, but some good stuff)
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/ (lot of idiots here, again some good stuff)
https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/  (not exclusive of course, I just see it on r/All, also lots of idiots)
https://www.understandingwar.org/  and they have a twitter too, I just don't follow it
https://www.facebook.com/zelenskiy.official (daily videos)
https://www.facebook.com/CinCAFU (he's the guy in charge of Ukraine's military, doesn't post much, but I check it periodically)
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko  (logistics)
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical (pics of destroyed equipment, generally seem reliable - and I read what they retweet)
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani  (background/history/cultural info)
https://twitter.com/YourAnonNews   https://twitter.com/DeepNetAnon (I'm semi paying attention to the hackers)
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael  (military analyst or something, I don't know the lingo, seems to know what he's talking about, also read what he retweets)

And then twitter delivers other stuff to my feed, which I kinda see. Be careful with comments - lot of garbage on twitter.  None of its perfect, all of it has to be taken with caution. But it is better about applying the context overall, because of the people commenting with the context. The mainstream articles which float to the top are sometimes garbage, sometimes really good.

And I found this today. https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510366/state-of-ukraine   I don't do podcasts normally, but NPR is good and I was doing something so listening worked out.

Edit: forgot this link. I just found it recently, haven't looked at a it a ton but the geography help is very much appreciated.
Live interactive map https://liveuamap.com/
« Last Edit: April 16, 2022, 11:50:47 PM by Sibley »

dang1

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1342 on: April 16, 2022, 10:10:04 PM »
Ukraine twitter list of Robert Mackey @RobertMackey https://twitter.com/i/lists/101285580

Travis

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1343 on: April 17, 2022, 01:09:36 AM »
Ukraine twitter list of Robert Mackey @RobertMackey https://twitter.com/i/lists/101285580

Edit: Nevermind. Might be a different Mackey I'm thinking of.
« Last Edit: April 17, 2022, 01:11:32 AM by Travis »

Poundwise

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1344 on: April 17, 2022, 06:34:45 AM »
I made the mistake of learning more about The Wagner Group and their behavior. Sickening. Some things can't be unseen.

The use of mercenaries makes me wonder, even if the US and Europe are afraid to give Ukraine air support, can't well-heeled private citizens supporting Ukraine buy fighter jets or hire mercenaries and send them to help Ukraine? I know it may sound silly but certainly there must be billionaires who are as aghast at this war as anybody else.

Well, there's now a #BuyMeAFighterJet initiative by Ukrainian pilots!
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1515648516634329091
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=foPUxMvXbhk


Back to this, The Guardian: Sean Penn calls for billionaire to step up and buy aircraft for Ukraine. But they note:
However, a more serious obstacle to a billionaire buying F-15s and F-16s and flying them to Ukraine would be US export controls – major arms sales have to be approved by the US Congress before being allowed to proceed. “Typically fighter aircraft are sold by one government to another,” Netherwood added.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1345 on: April 17, 2022, 02:45:21 PM »
https://www.businessinsider.com/7000-unclaimed-dead-russian-soldiers-left-in-morgues-ukraine-says-2022-4?utm_source=reddit.com

Russia isn't claiming their dead, and Ukraine is picking the bodies up off the ground. 7000 of them so far.

Why don't they just bury them? It's perfectly reasonable to do a decent burial, even a mass grave, after they've repeatedly tried to transfer the bodies back to Russia. Take pictures, assign ID numbers, associate names if possible, bury all of them and record where each is buried. That's not disrespectful, it's practical in the face of the Russian government's disrespect. Ukraine doesn't need to strain their resources holding thousands of corpses indefinitely.

Russia has claimed many less dead than their losses happen to be.  Is this a way to help justify denying the additional losses?

Do they simply not care to give their loved ones the chance for a decent funeral?

Making arrangements to pick those bodies up just doesn't seem that hard.  Undesirable, but not hard.
Yes, Russia would be very embaressed with so many deaths. Also the "soldier's mothers" were the only political movement that was ever a real danger to Putin. It's half of the reason why so many soldiers are from the other side of the country - sparsly populated, not very connected - where you don't end up with having a dozen funerals per day per town.

It's preferable the dead don't come back (at least for several months) for Putin. As long as there is no official message they are still alive, or worst MIA.

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1346 on: April 17, 2022, 07:10:47 PM »
https://www.businessinsider.com/7000-unclaimed-dead-russian-soldiers-left-in-morgues-ukraine-says-2022-4?utm_source=reddit.com

Russia isn't claiming their dead, and Ukraine is picking the bodies up off the ground. 7000 of them so far.

Why don't they just bury them? It's perfectly reasonable to do a decent burial, even a mass grave, after they've repeatedly tried to transfer the bodies back to Russia. Take pictures, assign ID numbers, associate names if possible, bury all of them and record where each is buried. That's not disrespectful, it's practical in the face of the Russian government's disrespect. Ukraine doesn't need to strain their resources holding thousands of corpses indefinitely.

Russia has claimed many less dead than their losses happen to be.  Is this a way to help justify denying the additional losses?

Do they simply not care to give their loved ones the chance for a decent funeral?

Making arrangements to pick those bodies up just doesn't seem that hard.  Undesirable, but not hard.
Yes, Russia would be very embaressed with so many deaths. Also the "soldier's mothers" were the only political movement that was ever a real danger to Putin. It's half of the reason why so many soldiers are from the other side of the country - sparsly populated, not very connected - where you don't end up with having a dozen funerals per day per town.

It's preferable the dead don't come back (at least for several months) for Putin. As long as there is no official message they are still alive, or worst MIA.

That still doesn't explain why Ukraine isn't just burying them.

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1347 on: April 17, 2022, 07:27:34 PM »
https://www.businessinsider.com/7000-unclaimed-dead-russian-soldiers-left-in-morgues-ukraine-says-2022-4?utm_source=reddit.com

Russia isn't claiming their dead, and Ukraine is picking the bodies up off the ground. 7000 of them so far.

Why don't they just bury them? It's perfectly reasonable to do a decent burial, even a mass grave, after they've repeatedly tried to transfer the bodies back to Russia. Take pictures, assign ID numbers, associate names if possible, bury all of them and record where each is buried. That's not disrespectful, it's practical in the face of the Russian government's disrespect. Ukraine doesn't need to strain their resources holding thousands of corpses indefinitely.

Russia has claimed many less dead than their losses happen to be.  Is this a way to help justify denying the additional losses?

Do they simply not care to give their loved ones the chance for a decent funeral?

Making arrangements to pick those bodies up just doesn't seem that hard.  Undesirable, but not hard.
Yes, Russia would be very embaressed with so many deaths. Also the "soldier's mothers" were the only political movement that was ever a real danger to Putin. It's half of the reason why so many soldiers are from the other side of the country - sparsly populated, not very connected - where you don't end up with having a dozen funerals per day per town.

It's preferable the dead don't come back (at least for several months) for Putin. As long as there is no official message they are still alive, or worst MIA.

That still doesn't explain why Ukraine isn't just burying them.

It does explain why the Russians are not notifying the parents of the deceased, but the Ukrainians are calling them.  It is rather bizarre when the enemy gives more consideration for war dead than your own country would  When the Ukrainians do this, they do give a spiel about the war and how Russia is doing an evil.

former player

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1348 on: April 18, 2022, 03:09:59 AM »
https://www.businessinsider.com/7000-unclaimed-dead-russian-soldiers-left-in-morgues-ukraine-says-2022-4?utm_source=reddit.com

Russia isn't claiming their dead, and Ukraine is picking the bodies up off the ground. 7000 of them so far.

Why don't they just bury them? It's perfectly reasonable to do a decent burial, even a mass grave, after they've repeatedly tried to transfer the bodies back to Russia. Take pictures, assign ID numbers, associate names if possible, bury all of them and record where each is buried. That's not disrespectful, it's practical in the face of the Russian government's disrespect. Ukraine doesn't need to strain their resources holding thousands of corpses indefinitely.

Russia has claimed many less dead than their losses happen to be.  Is this a way to help justify denying the additional losses?

Do they simply not care to give their loved ones the chance for a decent funeral?

Making arrangements to pick those bodies up just doesn't seem that hard.  Undesirable, but not hard.
Yes, Russia would be very embaressed with so many deaths. Also the "soldier's mothers" were the only political movement that was ever a real danger to Putin. It's half of the reason why so many soldiers are from the other side of the country - sparsly populated, not very connected - where you don't end up with having a dozen funerals per day per town.

It's preferable the dead don't come back (at least for several months) for Putin. As long as there is no official message they are still alive, or worst MIA.

That still doesn't explain why Ukraine isn't just burying them.
Burying Russian soldiers in Ukraine would give the Russian government another reason for claiming Ukraine as Russian soil.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #1349 on: April 18, 2022, 09:52:21 AM »
Sibley - Yes, I mixed up who mentioned the news sources earlier, thanks for the list.  I probably should have said I don't visit Twitter, but do check reddit.  So I've added the r/worldnews and will check back there.

former player - Russia will provide any vaguely plausible excuse, so if there's no war dead buried it will be something else.  And I need to correct my own earlier concern over China being able to point to Russia's side of the story over civilian deaths.  China would have the same stance either way, regardless of what Russia said.

If Putin is firing most of his military leaders, that's a good indication of a failed strategy.  Looking at Georgia and Crimea, Russia took what they wanted and considered the war over.  It's possible Putin expects he can take Eastern Ukraine and then try to end the war, while Ukraine expects to fight on to regain those territories.

Over the weekend, Biden agreed Nato planes could be sold/given to Ukraine, which could be a huge deal if it's acted on.  Russia relies heavily on it's artillary, which is vulnerable to air strikes.

Decades ago the U.S. designed the A-10 warthog for a ground war in Europe, against the Soviet Union.  It's designed for close air support of ground troops, taking out targets on the ground.  It's able to withstand a lot of punishment, including a direct hit by an RPG.  Considering it was designed for exactly the enemy Ukraine faces, it seems a shame the U.S. can't provide A-10s to Ukraine.