Ukraine

[pecunia]

So Bakhmut still stands, but with difficulty

[BNgarden]

As always, an interesting take (on Bakhmut) from Phillips P. O'Brien:
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-18-the-end-of-the?sd=pf

[dang1]

"withdrawal of troops by Russia with the agreement that nato will not expand to Ukraine." https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/jeffrey-sachss-great-power-politics

as long as withdrawal of troops by Russia - from all of Ukraine: Crimea, Donbass, etc.

[FIPurpose]

Ok. So let Russia withdraw and then sign Ukraine up to NATO? Or heck, just put Ukraine on a 5 year EU plan, and that effectively provides a similar result. Putin would only agree to this if he feels like they've lost already and wants to claim some concession that he was able to force from the retreat.

[waltworks]

"withdrawal of troops by Russia with the agreement that nato will not expand to Ukraine." https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/jeffrey-sachss-great-power-politics

as long as withdrawal of troops by Russia - from all of Ukraine: Crimea, Donbass, etc.

Wow, Sachs comes off as a lunatic in that interview. Jesus.

I mean, the US has done lots of bad stuff. But Assad and now Russia could still have decided that indiscriminately bombing civilians wasn't their cup of tea.

-W

[Taran Wanderer]

"withdrawal of troops by Russia with the agreement that nato will not expand to Ukraine." https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/jeffrey-sachss-great-power-politics

as long as withdrawal of troops by Russia - from all of Ukraine: Crimea, Donbass, etc.

Wow, Sachs comes off as a lunatic in that interview. Jesus.

I mean, the US has done lots of bad stuff. But Assad and now Russia could still have decided that indiscriminately bombing civilians wasn't their cup of tea.

-W

Sachs seems to be coming from the view that Putin (or Assad) is in power, and therefore we should acknowledge that he will have certain interests, like staying in power, that therefore become the interest of the state.  Their obligations to their citizens are irrelevant.  The difference is that in a democracy, the interests of the state are the interests of the people (broadly, and in the long term), and further that the right to dissent and argue and point out of the flaws of the government is embedded in the democracy's value systems.  Sachs would have us sacrifice the interests and democratic rights of the citizens of Russia (or Syria), and even of intermediate or buffer states, like Ukraine, to serve Putin's (or Assad's) desire to stay in power.  Even though the establishment of democratic institutions in Ukraine does not threaten an invasion of Russia, it represents a direct threat to the institutions of the Russian state and the power of its leader, so Sachs would have us defer to Russia and let Putin extend Russia's hegemony over Ukraine, even though its people do not want to submit to Russian power.

There's a certain amount of realpolitik about it, but I'm shocked at the mental gymnastics he jumps through to justify willingly sacrificing the current and future freedoms of millions of people.  Sachs seems to be saying that it's better to be alive and imprisoned with no hope than to fight for your own freedom.  It is a stance that is antithetical to American and democratic values. 

[simonsez]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/us/politics/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-ukraine.html

"New intelligence reviewed by U.S. officials suggests that a pro-Ukrainian group carried out the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines last year"

"U.S. officials said that they had no evidence President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine or his top lieutenants were involved in the operation, or that the perpetrators were acting at the direction of any Ukrainian government officials."

"The review of newly collected intelligence suggests they were opponents of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, but does not specify the members of the group, or who directed or paid for the operation. U.S. officials declined to disclose the nature of the intelligence, how it was obtained or any details of the strength of the evidence it contains."

Ok, so Ukraine did it now but it wasn't any of the top people (implying it wasn't a state-sponsored operation which is the opposite of what European intelligence officials are saying per the article) and we're not allowed to know the specific intelligence and all of this comes out a month after Sy Hersh's article.

Even if Hersh's oddly specific allegations are all incorrect, something smells rotten in the state of Denmark with the refusal to know more about the evidence (specifically, the timing of it) and that this operation neatly didn't involve any "top Ukrainian people".  I hope we learn more about this rogue group and how they're funded and who they really do subterfuge for.

[TomTX]

Blather from unidentified "sources", a misleading headline and no actual evidence - NYT has shoveled bullshit before using this tactic.

[Travis]

Blather from unidentified "sources", a misleading headline and no actual evidence - NYT has shoveled bullshit before using this tactic.

First we got Hersh's "this was a diabolical operation carried out with super secret high tech naval technology (of which there's no physical evidence)," and now we've got "this was slapped together by a band of terrorists with no technology whatsoever."

Both claims are crap for the same reasons.

[Telecaster]

Could be, but this is now being reported by multiple outlets.  Doesn't mean it is correct, but I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss it, either. 

[PeteD01]

There are mass protests in Tbilisi, Georgia.
This should really worry Russia (echoes of Euromaidan, Kyiv, UA, 2013):


Police using water cannon against peaceful demonstrator waving EU flag outside the Georgian Parliament protesting the adoption of the Russian-style anti-NGO law.


https://twitter.com/i/status/1633162811671998480

[Just Joe]

Blather from unidentified "sources", a misleading headline and no actual evidence - NYT has shoveled bullshit before using this tactic.

Deutsche-Welle reported last night that a couple of German news outlets had done the research and released some articles about it.

Not sure what the value of releasing this info publicly is.

It would be better to let Putin just twist in the wind on this topic? In fact perhaps keep doing this to Putin's interests - perhaps burn down a few of his houses - and let him wonder who is doing this to him...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDqr8fLZYsI

[Michael in ABQ]

Could be, but this is now being reported by multiple outlets.  Doesn't mean it is correct, but I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss it, either.

Journalists are lazy and I'll be most of that other reporting boils down to "this is what somebody else said". For every true investigative journalist doing real work there are 100 others ready to piggyback of it and try to put their individual spin on it.

[pecunia]

Could be, but this is now being reported by multiple outlets.  Doesn't mean it is correct, but I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss it, either.

Journalists are lazy and I'll be most of that other reporting boils down to "this is what somebody else said". For every true investigative journalist doing real work there are 100 others ready to piggyback of it and try to put their individual spin on it.

It's not just laziness.  It costs money to do research.  Look at all the newspapers that have shut down. If a bean-counter finds he can make just as much money with cheaper low quality news, he thinks no further.

[Taran Wanderer]

I want to live...

https://www.yahoo.com/news/lots-russian-soldiers-want-surrender-100029309.html

Turns out there are innovative and humane ways to remove soldiers from the battlefield.  As if it wasn't clear enough who the good guys are in this fight.

[pecunia]

I want to live...

https://www.yahoo.com/news/lots-russian-soldiers-want-surrender-100029309.html

Turns out there are innovative and humane ways to remove soldiers from the battlefield.  As if it wasn't clear enough who the good guys are in this fight.

It kind of reminds me of a popular poster in the Vietnam days, "Suppose they gave a war and nobody came."

Bakhmut still stands - They resist the Russian horde. 

[Travis]

https://news.sky.com/story/irans-alleged-ammunition-for-russias-war-in-ukraine-the-secret-journey-of-the-cargo-ships-accused-of-supplying-invasion-12828039

Russia allegedly receiving grenades, rockets, shells, and small arms ammunition from Iran.

[PeteD01]

The mass protests in Tbilisi, Georgia are ongoing and have so far been successful.
Censorship legislation proposed by the pro-Russian government was voted down.

The events in Georgia are very worrysome for Russia as their ability to respond militarily in the Caucasus region is severely compromised with military bases severely depleted in personnel and equipment due to the war in Ukraine.

Russia discussing the events in terms of a foreign sponsored coup attempt could actually be interpreted as a public admission of the seriousness with which Russia sees the situation:
 

Russia casts Georgia protests as coup attempt, accuses West of fomenting unrest
Agence France-Presse
March 10, 2023

Moscow on Friday accused foreign countries of fomenting days of mass protests in Georgia, likening them to an attempted coup designed to sow tension on Russia's borders.

Hundreds of Georgians rallied for a fourth day outside parliament, as lawmakers dropped controversial "foreign agent" legislation that triggered violent clashes between police and protesters earlier this week.

The days-long demonstrations point to turmoil over the future in Georgia, which aims to join the EU and NATO, much to the frustration of Moscow, which invaded in 2008 and recognized two separatist territories in the north of the country.


https://www.rawstory.com/russia-casts-georgia-protests-as-coup-attempt-accuses-west-of-fomenting-unrest/

[LennStar]

Didn't you it's the Amis?
The have a chemical named Agent Orange! They use spy balloons to chemtrail that over the people and they start an orange revolution!

[Glenstache]

The ICC has issued an arrest warrant for Putin. They are pretty clear that they don't expect to be able to arrest and then try Putin at any point soon, but hope that it will mitigate ongoing war crimes.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/03/17/world/russia-ukraine-putin-news

[TomTX]

The ICC has issued an arrest warrant for Putin. They are pretty clear that they don't expect to be able to arrest and then try Putin at any point soon, but hope that it will mitigate ongoing war crimes.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/03/17/world/russia-ukraine-putin-news

The effect is twofold:

1) Putin is now effectively unable to travel to quite a few countries.

2) Hopefully this will make some Russians think about consequences and decide against committing (more) war crimes.

[dividendman]

The ICC has issued an arrest warrant for Putin. They are pretty clear that they don't expect to be able to arrest and then try Putin at any point soon, but hope that it will mitigate ongoing war crimes.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/03/17/world/russia-ukraine-putin-news

The effect is twofold:

1) Putin is now effectively unable to travel to quite a few countries.

2) Hopefully this will make some Russians think about consequences and decide against committing (more) war crimes.

Is 1) even true?  I guess for private travel. But if he travels as Russia's head of state I think almost all countries have laws on the books for giving heads of state diplomatic immunity.

[Travis]

The ICC has issued an arrest warrant for Putin. They are pretty clear that they don't expect to be able to arrest and then try Putin at any point soon, but hope that it will mitigate ongoing war crimes.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/03/17/world/russia-ukraine-putin-news

The effect is twofold:

1) Putin is now effectively unable to travel to quite a few countries.

2) Hopefully this will make some Russians think about consequences and decide against committing (more) war crimes.

Is 1) even true?  I guess for private travel. But if he travels as Russia's head of state I think almost all countries have laws on the books for giving heads of state diplomatic immunity.

Nobody is going to handcuff him if he attends G20. The woman indicted alongside him for the kidnapping charges is fair game though.

Best case scenario, he's deposed and handed over by a new government as part of some really lucrative sanctions deal. And when I say "best" I mean "hail mary pass" likelihood.

[TomTX]

The ICC has issued an arrest warrant for Putin. They are pretty clear that they don't expect to be able to arrest and then try Putin at any point soon, but hope that it will mitigate ongoing war crimes.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/03/17/world/russia-ukraine-putin-news

The effect is twofold:

1) Putin is now effectively unable to travel to quite a few countries.

2) Hopefully this will make some Russians think about consequences and decide against committing (more) war crimes.

Is 1) even true?  I guess for private travel. But if he travels as Russia's head of state I think almost all countries have laws on the books for giving heads of state diplomatic immunity.

Nobody is going to handcuff him if he attends G20. The woman indicted alongside him for the kidnapping charges is fair game though.

Best case scenario, he's deposed and handed over by a new government as part of some really lucrative sanctions deal. And when I say "best" I mean "hail mary pass" likelihood.

Germany said that if Putin shows up in their country, he will be arrested.

[Sibley]

The ICC has issued an arrest warrant for Putin. They are pretty clear that they don't expect to be able to arrest and then try Putin at any point soon, but hope that it will mitigate ongoing war crimes.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/03/17/world/russia-ukraine-putin-news

The effect is twofold:

1) Putin is now effectively unable to travel to quite a few countries.

2) Hopefully this will make some Russians think about consequences and decide against committing (more) war crimes.

Is 1) even true?  I guess for private travel. But if he travels as Russia's head of state I think almost all countries have laws on the books for giving heads of state diplomatic immunity.

Nobody is going to handcuff him if he attends G20. The woman indicted alongside him for the kidnapping charges is fair game though.

Best case scenario, he's deposed and handed over by a new government as part of some really lucrative sanctions deal. And when I say "best" I mean "hail mary pass" likelihood.

Germany said that if Putin shows up in their country, he will be arrested.

Not sure if he's be arrested or suffer a fatal accident if he went to Poland, but either way it wouldn't be a good idea for Putin to go to Poland. Probably some of the other neighboring countries as well.

[Tigerpine]

The ICC has issued an arrest warrant for Putin. They are pretty clear that they don't expect to be able to arrest and then try Putin at any point soon, but hope that it will mitigate ongoing war crimes.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/03/17/world/russia-ukraine-putin-news

The effect is twofold:

1) Putin is now effectively unable to travel to quite a few countries.

2) Hopefully this will make some Russians think about consequences and decide against committing (more) war crimes.

Is 1) even true?  I guess for private travel. But if he travels as Russia's head of state I think almost all countries have laws on the books for giving heads of state diplomatic immunity.

Nobody is going to handcuff him if he attends G20. The woman indicted alongside him for the kidnapping charges is fair game though.

Best case scenario, he's deposed and handed over by a new government as part of some really lucrative sanctions deal. And when I say "best" I mean "hail mary pass" likelihood.

Germany said that if Putin shows up in their country, he will be arrested.

Not sure if he's be arrested or suffer a fatal accident if he went to Poland, but either way it wouldn't be a good idea for Putin to go to Poland. Probably some of the other neighboring countries as well.

How does this work in terms of diplomatic immunity?  (In the quote below, ICJ stands for International Court of Justice.)

In the Case Concerning the Arrest Warrant of 11 April 2000 (Democratic Republic of the Congo v. Belgium) [2002] ICJ 1, the ICJ reaffirmed the principle of immunity of the head of state and other high officials. The Court stated: ‘in international law it is firmly established that […] certain holders of high-ranking offices, such as the head of state, head of government and minister of foreign affairs, enjoy immunities from jurisdiction in other states, both civil and criminal’.

The ICJ has stated clearly that heads of state are immune for all acts performed during their time in power, including torture, genocide, and crimes against humanity.

Source:  https://www.diplomacy.edu/blog/are-international-immunities-of-heads-of-state-and-government-officials-undergoing-a-major-change/

[LennStar]

German "State Media"(tm) said that does not apply to war crimes. 

International law is a worse mine field than the Ukraine front so don't ask me ;)

[pecunia]

So Bakhmut still stands, but with difficulty.

[blue_green_sparks]

Do you think the support for Ukraine against the invaders sends a message to the Chinese leadership? Not exactly the same situation with Tiawan, or is it?

[pecunia]

Do you think the support for Ukraine against the invaders sends a message to the Chinese leadership? Not exactly the same situation with Tiawan, or is it?

The weakness of Russia and the dependence upon China represents opportunities for China.  I recently saw a news blurb where former Chinese cities in Manchuria were named on the map with old Chinese names rather than the Russian names.  Russia has 140 million people and many natural resources.  China has 1.4 billion people and the need for those natural resources.  Russia took this portion of China in the 1800s.

If the attention in China is diverted to "assist" Russia in development in the next few years, they may be less concerned about Taiwan.  Manchuria is a much bigger prize.  Chinese will get what they want.  They play the long game.

[zolotiyeruki]

So Bakhmut still stands, but with difficulty.

That's been the headline now for about a month

[Sibley]

Not sure if he's be arrested or suffer a fatal accident if he went to Poland, but either way it wouldn't be a good idea for Putin to go to Poland. Probably some of the other neighboring countries as well.

How does this work in terms of diplomatic immunity?  (In the quote below, ICJ stands for International Court of Justice.)

In the Case Concerning the Arrest Warrant of 11 April 2000 (Democratic Republic of the Congo v. Belgium) [2002] ICJ 1, the ICJ reaffirmed the principle of immunity of the head of state and other high officials. The Court stated: ‘in international law it is firmly established that […] certain holders of high-ranking offices, such as the head of state, head of government and minister of foreign affairs, enjoy immunities from jurisdiction in other states, both civil and criminal’.

The ICJ has stated clearly that heads of state are immune for all acts performed during their time in power, including torture, genocide, and crimes against humanity.

Source:  https://www.diplomacy.edu/blog/are-international-immunities-of-heads-of-state-and-government-officials-undergoing-a-major-change/

You are assuming that 1. the state will both openly and covertly comply with international law and 2. each resident of a state will both openly and covertly comply with international law. Those assumptions may or may not be accurate. And may I remind you that this entire war is illegal?

Putin is at risk of open arrest if he travels. That may or may not be a serious risk, I am not an expert on international law, but I have seen that a few countries have stated they would arrest him if he went there. So its not zero.

He's also at risk of assassination, whether by a state, an individual or a non-state affiliated group. There are a LOT of people who hate Putin. Thus my comment "suffer a fatal accident". Again, it may or may not be a serious risk, but I'm sure it's not zero.

As for Poland, from what I know, the Polish people have a deep and abiding enmity for Russia, for very good historical reasons. Many of the countries neighboring Russia have very good reasons to dislike Russia. Russia hasn't made itself very many friends, and Putin hasn't helped. If he leaves Russia, he's at risk.

[lemanfan]

As for Poland, from what I know, the Polish people have a deep and abiding enmity for Russia, for very good historical reasons. Many of the countries neighboring Russia have very good reasons to dislike Russia. Russia hasn't made itself very many friends, and Putin hasn't helped. If he leaves Russia, he's at risk.

Speaking from Sweden:  Russia has been Swedens arch enemy for the past eight hundred years.  Sweden have however not been important enough to remain Russias arch enemy lately... the last 200 years or so we've lost ground.  :)

[Tigerpine]

You are assuming that 1. the state will both openly and covertly comply with international law and 2. each resident of a state will both openly and covertly comply with international law. Those assumptions may or may not be accurate. And may I remind you that this entire war is illegal?

Putin is at risk of open arrest if he travels. That may or may not be a serious risk, I am not an expert on international law, but I have seen that a few countries have stated they would arrest him if he went there. So its not zero.

He's also at risk of assassination, whether by a state, an individual or a non-state affiliated group. There are a LOT of people who hate Putin. Thus my comment "suffer a fatal accident". Again, it may or may not be a serious risk, but I'm sure it's not zero.

As for Poland, from what I know, the Polish people have a deep and abiding enmity for Russia, for very good historical reasons. Many of the countries neighboring Russia have very good reasons to dislike Russia. Russia hasn't made itself very many friends, and Putin hasn't helped. If he leaves Russia, he's at risk.

Not assuming anything.  Just questioning.  Let me be clear that I am not a Putin sympathizer.  I'm just trying to think this through.

My best guess is that if Putin has enough support at home, Russia would see the arrest of their head of state as an act of war.  Russia is not a complete paper tiger, as if only a third of their nuclear arsenal is operable they are still a very lethal threat.  If Russia declares war on a NATO nation, all the other NATO nations will join the fight.  China may or may not actively participate, but they may see it as a good opportunity to seize Taiwan by force.  Biden has explicitly said that the US will help defend Taiwan against such an attack.  Things would get very ugly very quickly.

Also, if the EU likes to hold itself up as a shining example of the rule of law but member nation states openly flout established principles of international law, what does that say about them?  I see good intentions but a lack of self-awareness. 

For what it's worth, I would love to see Putin brought to justice for invading his neighbor on false pretenses.  However, I think that if we truly hold principles such as rule of law to be dear, we need to be consistent in their application.  Even when it's not convenient.  Even when doing so is unpleasant.  Otherwise we should ask ourselves just how dear these principles are to us.  If we just want a certain outcome, we should be honest about it instead of hiding behind high ideals.

[pecunia]

As for Poland, from what I know, the Polish people have a deep and abiding enmity for Russia, for very good historical reasons. Many of the countries neighboring Russia have very good reasons to dislike Russia. Russia hasn't made itself very many friends, and Putin hasn't helped. If he leaves Russia, he's at risk.

Speaking from Sweden:  Russia has been Swedens arch enemy for the past eight hundred years.  Sweden have however not been important enough to remain Russias arch enemy lately... the last 200 years or so we've lost ground.  :)

Lost ground?  I wonder.  As an outsider, it seems you do pretty good.  This magazine thinks so.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/rankings/quality-of-life

Sweden is not blessed with oil money like Norway, yet they do good for their people.  Russia is blessed with tremendous oil money yet their people live in poverty.  I don't see Sweden invading their neighbors.  And they make good chainsaws.

Besides, Sweden is in the EU.  Isn't that a bit like gaining ground?

[lemanfan]

I don't see Sweden invading their neighbors.

We stopped doing that a couple of hundred years ago.  We simply ran out of silver and copper in our mines that we used to pay the soldiers so we had to stop.  That was our oil money back in the day.

[nereo]

I don't see Sweden invading their neighbors.

We stopped doing that a couple of hundred years ago.  We simply ran out of silver and copper in our mines that we used to pay the soldiers so we had to stop.  That was our oil money back in the day.

Interesting. Many, many civilizations have used the scarcity of a resource as justification for invading their neighbors.

[lemanfan]

I don't see Sweden invading their neighbors.

We stopped doing that a couple of hundred years ago.  We simply ran out of silver and copper in our mines that we used to pay the soldiers so we had to stop.  That was our oil money back in the day.

Interesting. Many, many civilizations have used the scarcity of a resource as justification for invading their neighbors.

Well, the explanation isn't fully true or complete... there are more factors... One important truth though is at that those two specific mines (Stora Kopparberget in Falun and Sala Silver Mine) was very very important for Swedens finances and was the way we financed our wars.  If I remember correctly, there was times when that one copper mine produced 25-30% of all copper in the world.

At it's height, Sweden more or less encircled  the whole Baltic sea and this included all the coast of what is now Russia near S:t Petersburg and Kaliningrad.

One of the stranger incidents in this war history is the Skirmish at Bender when the Swedish king had lost against the Russians (final battle in Poltava, which is now in Ukraine) so he took his army down south and finally ended up fighting the Turks instead and had a small standoff like the 300 Spartans from that one movie... but here it was 700 Swedish soldiers (and a king) against 10 000 Turks in the city of Bender, which is located in Moldova / Transnistria.

This has very little to do with the current war though.  Other than that that king, Carolus Rex, is one of the western kings and leaders that have invaded Russia to give them their paranoia about being invaded from the west.  European history is a bit messy.

[LennStar]

Lost ground?  I wonder.  As an outsider, it seems you do pretty good.  This magazine thinks so.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/rankings/quality-of-life

Sweden is not blessed with oil money like Norway, yet they do good for their people.  Russia is blessed with tremendous oil money yet their people live in poverty.  I don't see Sweden invading their neighbors.

points to book in signature

Anyway, Selensky was in Charkiv. Bulgaria declared it doesn't send anything to Ukraine. Russia uses butterfly mines PFM-1 around electricity infrastructure, which are war crime.

[pecunia]

It's truly Tanks for the Memories.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/wxjq7q/russia-appears-to-be-deploying-75-year-old-tanks-to-ukraine

Tanks from the forties and fifties are being sent into the fray by Russia.  These things are older than a '57 Chevy.

I wonder if they have a boneyard of the famous T-34 tanks getting ready to go.

They can tell the young recruit that his great grandfather fought in this tank for the motherland and now he can too.

All of this while Europe decides to send Ukraine a million shells.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/20/eu-ministers-agree-to-send-1-million-artillery-shells-to-ukraine

Perhaps in a few months the Russian cavalry will be charging over the fields with the finest of steeds.  It will be like a reproduction of historic battles.  However, I doubt whether Putin will lead the charge.

[Sibley]

It's truly Tanks for the Memories.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/wxjq7q/russia-appears-to-be-deploying-75-year-old-tanks-to-ukraine

Tanks from the forties and fifties are being sent into the fray by Russia.  These things are older than a '57 Chevy.

I wonder if they have a boneyard of the famous T-34 tanks getting ready to go.

They can tell the young recruit that his great grandfather fought in this tank for the motherland and now he can too.

All of this while Europe decides to send Ukraine a million shells.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/20/eu-ministers-agree-to-send-1-million-artillery-shells-to-ukraine

Perhaps in a few months the Russian cavalry will be charging over the fields with the finest of steeds.  It will be like a reproduction of historic battles.  However, I doubt whether Putin will lead the charge.

It's interesting to think that years from now, people will be pulling scrap metal and reusing/recycling it from Ukraine. I wonder how much "new" steel will be recovered from this war. There's an immense of quantity of equipment, from Russia and elsewhere, that is being pulled out of storage.

[lemanfan]

It's truly Tanks for the Memories.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/wxjq7q/russia-appears-to-be-deploying-75-year-old-tanks-to-ukraine

Tanks from the forties and fifties are being sent into the fray by Russia.  These things are older than a '57 Chevy.

I wonder if they have a boneyard of the famous T-34 tanks getting ready to go.

They can tell the young recruit that his great grandfather fought in this tank for the motherland and now he can too.

All of this while Europe decides to send Ukraine a million shells.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/20/eu-ministers-agree-to-send-1-million-artillery-shells-to-ukraine

Perhaps in a few months the Russian cavalry will be charging over the fields with the finest of steeds.  It will be like a reproduction of historic battles.  However, I doubt whether Putin will lead the charge.

It's interesting to think that years from now, people will be pulling scrap metal and reusing/recycling it from Ukraine. I wonder how much "new" steel will be recovered from this war. There's an immense of quantity of equipment, from Russia and elsewhere, that is being pulled out of storage.

Etsy is full of keychains and other metal stuff marked "Made in Russia, recycled in Ukraine" if you want a piece of it already now.

[Sibley]

It's truly Tanks for the Memories.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/wxjq7q/russia-appears-to-be-deploying-75-year-old-tanks-to-ukraine

Tanks from the forties and fifties are being sent into the fray by Russia.  These things are older than a '57 Chevy.

I wonder if they have a boneyard of the famous T-34 tanks getting ready to go.

They can tell the young recruit that his great grandfather fought in this tank for the motherland and now he can too.

All of this while Europe decides to send Ukraine a million shells.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/20/eu-ministers-agree-to-send-1-million-artillery-shells-to-ukraine

Perhaps in a few months the Russian cavalry will be charging over the fields with the finest of steeds.  It will be like a reproduction of historic battles.  However, I doubt whether Putin will lead the charge.

It's interesting to think that years from now, people will be pulling scrap metal and reusing/recycling it from Ukraine. I wonder how much "new" steel will be recovered from this war. There's an immense of quantity of equipment, from Russia and elsewhere, that is being pulled out of storage.

Etsy is full of keychains and other metal stuff marked "Made in Russia, recycled in Ukraine" if you want a piece of it already now.

Nah, I'd prefer they use it to make the steel beams they'll need for rebuilding.

[GuitarStv]

It's truly Tanks for the Memories.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/wxjq7q/russia-appears-to-be-deploying-75-year-old-tanks-to-ukraine

Tanks from the forties and fifties are being sent into the fray by Russia.  These things are older than a '57 Chevy.

I wonder if they have a boneyard of the famous T-34 tanks getting ready to go.

They can tell the young recruit that his great grandfather fought in this tank for the motherland and now he can too.

All of this while Europe decides to send Ukraine a million shells.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/20/eu-ministers-agree-to-send-1-million-artillery-shells-to-ukraine

Perhaps in a few months the Russian cavalry will be charging over the fields with the finest of steeds.  It will be like a reproduction of historic battles.  However, I doubt whether Putin will lead the charge.

It's interesting to think that years from now, people will be pulling scrap metal and reusing/recycling it from Ukraine. I wonder how much "new" steel will be recovered from this war. There's an immense of quantity of equipment, from Russia and elsewhere, that is being pulled out of storage.

Etsy is full of keychains and other metal stuff marked "Made in Russia, recycled in Ukraine" if you want a piece of it already now.

Nah, I'd prefer they use it to make the steel beams they'll need for rebuilding.

Can't rebuild until Russia's out.  And it doesn't look like Russia's going anywhere for the foreseeable future.

[PeteD01]

There is menace in this.
First time I´ve seen something that goes beyond complaining about conditions etc.
And I´m not talking about the talk, but about the demeanor and the look on their faces.
Wouldn´t take too much effort to teach them that they accidentally happen to be on the wrong side.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1639390679670374403

[PeteD01]

^^

The mobiks in the video above are indeed a different sort than we have seen before.
Apparently these are mobilized veterans, probably combat vets, and the Russian military is using blocking troops against them.


https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1639757260766191619

[PeteD01]

^^^^

In the video at 1:56, there is the following statement which identifies the video as a petition directed at the Commander-in-Chief: "We appeal to the Commander-in-Chief to help us in this difficult situation" which was delivered in an unemotional tone.

A direct petition to the Tsar is a traditional "right" and one may consider this as a formality as it appears in every single video airing grievances of any kind - just a Russian thing, whatever.

In this context and with this bunch it is a bit more difficult to dismiss it as that: these guys have been fired upon by troops under the command of the Russian MoD, now they have made their petition and they may yet get fired upon again  - they have been betrayed and will be betrayed again.

Anyone who knows anything about the end of Tsarist rule in Russia can make the connection with January 22, 1905, the Bloody Sunday, when the Imperial Guards of Tsar Nicholas II fired upon unarmed petitioners on their way to the Winter Palace. 
The events of that day caused major upheavals in Russian society and eventually led to the 1917 revolution and the imprisonment and eventual execution of Nicholas II and his family.
These guys know this and so do other Russians, in particular Vladimir Vladimirovich, amateur historian he is, knows all about it.

No surprise that this video is apparently much talked about in Russian channels.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloody_Sunday_(1905)

[Michael in ABQ]

I came across this BBC report on Twitter. It's about six minutes long and gives some good on the ground footage from right on the front lines in Donetsk.
https://twitter.com/sommervilletv/status/1639038915414728707

Here another one from Bakhmut, also about 6 minutes long.
https://twitter.com/sommervilletv/status/1636601384941355008


This video is about 9 minutes long showing a failed Russian assault on a small section of trench near the Donetsk/Luhansk border. Pretty terrible tactics on the part of the Russian. They have 20+ people and they just slowly move through the open grass until they start getting hit with mortars - eventually killing or wounding most of them. It's far enough away that it's not that graphic, but clearly no one is surviving when a mortar explodes in the middle of a group of soldiers.
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1639342501059260416

[Travis]

I came across this BBC report on Twitter. It's about six minutes long and gives some good on the ground footage from right on the front lines in Donetsk.
https://twitter.com/sommervilletv/status/1639038915414728707

Here another one from Bakhmut, also about 6 minutes long.
https://twitter.com/sommervilletv/status/1636601384941355008


This video is about 9 minutes long showing a failed Russian assault on a small section of trench near the Donetsk/Luhansk border. Pretty terrible tactics on the part of the Russian. They have 20+ people and they just slowly move through the open grass until they start getting hit with mortars - eventually killing or wounding most of them. It's far enough away that it's not that graphic, but clearly no one is surviving when a mortar explodes in the middle of a group of soldiers.
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1639342501059260416

I've been watching videos all week of entire Russian platoons getting mowed down over open fields by MGs, hit by artillery attempting to ford that little river in the middle of the city, or near Adviika getting grenades drone-dropped on them while they were sleeping in the open. It's been a mess for Russia the last couple weeks with armor losses visually just short of 2000 tanks. Russian forces are still taking some ground in Bakhmut, but its being measured by singular buildings now and no major attempts at extending the encirclement. There's rumors that regular Russian units are filling the line because Wagner is spent. In the south near Zap, drones are guiding artillery strikes on C2 vehicles, SAMs, and radars 10km behind the line.

[Travis]

https://twitter.com/pati_marins64/status/1639348382819811328?

https://twitter.com/pati_marins64/status/1638913309217898500?s=20

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1639619088040198145?t=OqVf1AhhzO37d9V4LcadHQ&s=19

Analysis on Russian armored vehicle manufacturing.

TL:DR: they are extremely short on western-sourced components such as thermal imagers and night vision equipment for their gunsights. They can make do with home-grown solutions eventually, but the tech is 20 years behind and still needs to be ramped up in quantity. Nobody is quite sure what the purpose of the T-55s is yet, but sending a couple hundred obsolete vehicles to fill gaps to buy some time for this manufacturing bottleneck is a possibility.