Ukraine

[maizefolk]

Part f being human is to feel.  To kill without the feeling of remorse is lacking something fundamental.

The way human beings around the world talk themselves into killing without remorse is to first convince each other that the people they will be killing "aren't really human the way you and I are."

[zolotiyeruki]

Ukraine's naval drone attack on the Russian warship seems like an impressive feat.  Hopefully, we will see many more of these attacks.


Something is so satisfying about watching a cheap weapon destroy such a huge expensive warship.

Video of the tanker hit.

https://vxtwitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1687683453045665792

A landing craft (being used as a ferry as a backup to the Kerch Strait bridge), and a tanker.  Nice.

Russia claimed that the tanker is mostly fine and intact, and only lost its ability to move under its own power.  The point of impact for that USV doesn't seem consistent with that, since the propellers and engines tend to be, you know, in the back of ships.

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

There's a huge delta between saying that someone doesn't share the same cultural values as westerners and saying that they are barely human. Western values and culture are not defining features of humanity. People in Russia, and Iraq, and Kenya, and anywhere else are "just normal people" and unfortunately having large parts of ones outlook on the world be defined by the culture one grew up in is actually a common characteristic of "just normal people" around the world.

You and I may not like the way other people think or behave in other cultures, and if you had simply said that there is no way they would be able to adapt to our values without major cultural shifts (which are probably impossible in one lifetime) then probably more people would agree with you. But to deny a person's humanity because of that disagreement in cultural values is totally senseless.

As I explained, I was playing off of Pecunia's line about the potential inhumanity of the Russians for the purpose of hyperbole (and I thought the rules were you were allowed to denigrate a group if you were a member, as I am--at least, half-way!). To reiterate, I object to the notion there is any concept of a "normal human" if we consider culture a crucial component of humanity. Ignoring culture, I suppose we could list boring biological facts that unify us as a species, but such an exercise isn't going to help elucidate the situation in Ukraine.

One could, in fact, argue that it's us westerners that are less human than many other cultures, since upholding liberal values is not something that comes naturally to humanity.

I completely agree with this. Humans are savage by nature: look at the astonishing homicide rates, as estimated by the aforementioned Pinker, in hunter gatherer societies. Or consider Jarred Diamond's description of tribal warfare (The World Until Yesterday) in Papua New Guinea, and how the institution of state governance brought an end to that warfare, to the great relief of the tribes in question. It was due to a set of very peculiar cultural mutations that occurred in the western world that allowed for the codification of human rights and establishment of liberal democracies, and I would say the "WEIRD" acronym can be taken literally to some extent.

[Sibley]

There's a huge delta between saying that someone doesn't share the same cultural values as westerners and saying that they are barely human. Western values and culture are not defining features of humanity. People in Russia, and Iraq, and Kenya, and anywhere else are "just normal people" and unfortunately having large parts of ones outlook on the world be defined by the culture one grew up in is actually a common characteristic of "just normal people" around the world.

You and I may not like the way other people think or behave in other cultures, and if you had simply said that there is no way they would be able to adapt to our values without major cultural shifts (which are probably impossible in one lifetime) then probably more people would agree with you. But to deny a person's humanity because of that disagreement in cultural values is totally senseless.

As I explained, I was playing off of Pecunia's line about the potential inhumanity of the Russians for the purpose of hyperbole (and I thought the rules were you were allowed to denigrate a group if you were a member, as I am--at least, half-way!). To reiterate, I object to the notion there is any concept of a "normal human" if we consider culture a crucial component of humanity. Ignoring culture, I suppose we could list boring biological facts that unify us as a species, but such an exercise isn't going to help elucidate the situation in Ukraine.

Would you fucking stop with trying to dig yourself out of that hole? There is no potential inhumanity. Russian people are as human as you are. So unless you're outing yourself as a cylon or something, cut it out.

And don't give me some bullcrap about following the rules. You're presumably a human, they are human, we are ALL HUMAN. And if you're not human, then get the hell off my planet.

There certainly can be a discussion of historical and cultural implications in behavior and actions, but the guy (or cylon) who said that an entire country isn't human doesn't have any moral standing to take part in that conversation.

[Tigerpine]

(Text was required.)

[LennStar]

Contrast the largely autocratic history of Russia with that of the US where classical liberal ideals have held sway for 250 years, having been inherited from even older traditions incubated in Great Britain.

Yeah, that's a good proof of point. The US had centuries of religious fanatics going there, so now you have a genetical base for being stupid sheeples following their mullah priest into whatever inhuman thing he wants. Making abortions a jailable offense, denying medical help on the base of whatever you read out of a book (not to mention the insurance thing), banning books about science because critical thinking might hurt children... I wonder when the Republicans will tell us the world is flat.

The thing is that people get "trained" by their culture, even their language, and especially a war, but that does not mean they can't stop being that way. And just because as a Russian recruit to the army you have to literally stick out your arse in many cases does not mean that you automatically start a war.
Current Russian culture is that of a Mafia, including the brutality everywhere and schoolchildrne wearing military uniforms. But as a German I can assure you that this does not mean you are destined to do wars once you get rid of the warmongers.

Russia claimed that the tanker is mostly fine and intact, and only lost its ability to move under its own power.

Even if that is true, it still means the tanker will be unable to transport fuel during the offensive. That's good enough.

[pecunia]

Contrast the largely autocratic history of Russia with that of the US where classical liberal ideals have held sway for 250 years, having been inherited from even older traditions incubated in Great Britain.

Yeah, that's a good proof of point. The US had centuries of religious fanatics going there, so now you have a genetical base for being stupid sheeples following their mullah priest into whatever inhuman thing he wants. Making abortions a jailable offense, denying medical help on the base of whatever you read out of a book (not to mention the insurance thing), banning books about science because critical thinking might hurt children... I wonder when the Republicans will tell us the world is flat.

The thing is that people get "trained" by their culture, even their language, and especially a war, but that does not mean they can't stop being that way. And just because as a Russian recruit to the army you have to literally stick out your arse in many cases does not mean that you automatically start a war.
Current Russian culture is that of a Mafia, including the brutality everywhere and schoolchildrne wearing military uniforms. But as a German I can assure you that this does not mean you are destined to do wars once you get rid of the warmongers.

Russia claimed that the tanker is mostly fine and intact, and only lost its ability to move under its own power.

Even if that is true, it still means the tanker will be unable to transport fuel during the offensive. That's good enough.

"Yeah, that's a good proof of point. The US had centuries of religious fanatics going there, so now you have a genetical base for being stupid sheeples following their mullah priest into whatever inhuman thing he wants. Making abortions a jailable offense, denying medical help on the base of whatever you read out of a book (not to mention the insurance thing), banning books about science because critical thinking might hurt children... I wonder when the Republicans will tell us the world is flat. "

Just where does it come from?

"German-Americans make up the largest self-reported ancestry group within the United States accounting for roughly 49 million people and approximately 17% of the population of the US."

[LennStar]

Yeah, we only kept the sensible people here, that's why Germany was the world leader in philosophy and tech in the 19th century. ;)

[pecunia]

Yeah, we only kept the sensible people here, that's why Germany was the world leader in philosophy and tech in the 19th century. ;)

Be careful - There have been a lot of smart Germans of all stripes.  You left yourself open to cherry picking there.  Now back to the Ukrainian war.

We've argued the validity of the reported Russian deaths before.  Whatever the exact number, Russia has sent a lot of people to meet the grim reaper.

The latest report from Ukraine  is 249,700 deaths.  The number who has joined this total in the past 24 hours is 590.  Tomorrow the report will be over a quarter million dead.  This war is running on inertia.  Russia has essentially lost the NATO thing.  They have no basis for this war.  Even countries like Saudi Arabia have arranged a summit to stop this brutal war.  Russia will be the pariah of nations for a generation.

[Dancin'Dog]

Yeah, we only kept the sensible people here, that's why Germany was the world leader in philosophy and tech in the 19th century. ;)

Be careful - There have been a lot of smart Germans of all stripes.  You left yourself open to cherry picking there.  Now back to the Ukrainian war.

We've argued the validity of the reported Russian deaths before.  Whatever the exact number, Russia has sent a lot of people to meet the grim reaper.

The latest report from Ukraine  is 249,700 deaths.  The number who has joined this total in the past 24 hours is 590.  Tomorrow the report will be over a quarter million dead.  This war is running on inertia.  Russia has essentially lost the NATO thing.  They have no basis for this war.  Even countries like Saudi Arabia have arranged a summit to stop this brutal war.  Russia will be the pariah of nations for a generation.

If the Saudis could arrange a private meeting with Putin I'm sure they could find a way to end the war.  The Saudis don't mind getting their hands dirty. 

[LennStar]

You are extremely optimistic to think the war ends with Putin's death.

[Sibley]

Yeah, we only kept the sensible people here, that's why Germany was the world leader in philosophy and tech in the 19th century. ;)

Be careful - There have been a lot of smart Germans of all stripes.  You left yourself open to cherry picking there.  Now back to the Ukrainian war.

We've argued the validity of the reported Russian deaths before.  Whatever the exact number, Russia has sent a lot of people to meet the grim reaper.

The latest report from Ukraine  is 249,700 deaths.  The number who has joined this total in the past 24 hours is 590.  Tomorrow the report will be over a quarter million dead.  This war is running on inertia.  Russia has essentially lost the NATO thing.  They have no basis for this war.  Even countries like Saudi Arabia have arranged a summit to stop this brutal war.  Russia will be the pariah of nations for a generation.

I can't remember the exact quote, but it's something like "wars all start differently but all wars end the same: sitting at a table and talking".

Such a waste, on all sides and in all ways.

[PeteD01]

This book:

Russia Against Modernity 1st Edition
by Alexander Etkind

might be of interest to anyone interested in an in-depth view into the background and the causes of the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war.

The author is Russian and teaches at the Central European University in Vienna.

I have not read the book yet, but I'm familiar with the subject and the review below suggests that the book will provide that in-depth view.

Gaia vs. Leviathan: Why Is Russia at War With the Modern World?

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 20 Issue: 124
By: Vadim Shtepa
August 2, 2023

In June 2023, Polity Press published a new book by Alexander Etkind, a professor at Central European University in Vienna, entitled Russia Against Modernity. In the book, Etkind presents the invasion of Ukraine as only part of the Russian state’s larger war against global progress—namely, the environmental, social and cultural challenges of the 21st century.

The Russian professor explains the scope of his research in this way: “Why is Russia opposed to modernity? Because it is completely dependent on the export of its carbon raw materials. Any energy transition programs deprive the Russian Federation of its usual sources of income. This is the essence of this confrontation” (Holod.media, April 15).

https://jamestown.org/program/gaia-vs-leviathan-why-is-russia-at-war-with-the-modern-world/

[ChpBstrd]

This book:

Russia Against Modernity 1st Edition
by Alexander Etkind

might be of interest to anyone interested in an in-depth view into the background and the causes of the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war.

The author is Russian and teaches at the Central European University in Vienna.

I have not read the book yet, but I'm familiar with the subject and the review below suggests that the book will provide that in-depth view.

Gaia vs. Leviathan: Why Is Russia at War With the Modern World?

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 20 Issue: 124
By: Vadim Shtepa
August 2, 2023

In June 2023, Polity Press published a new book by Alexander Etkind, a professor at Central European University in Vienna, entitled Russia Against Modernity. In the book, Etkind presents the invasion of Ukraine as only part of the Russian state’s larger war against global progress—namely, the environmental, social and cultural challenges of the 21st century.

The Russian professor explains the scope of his research in this way: “Why is Russia opposed to modernity? Because it is completely dependent on the export of its carbon raw materials. Any energy transition programs deprive the Russian Federation of its usual sources of income. This is the essence of this confrontation” (Holod.media, April 15).

https://jamestown.org/program/gaia-vs-leviathan-why-is-russia-at-war-with-the-modern-world/

This also explains part of why the US Republican Party is sympathetic to Russia. They too are fossil fuel dependent. There are other reasons as well.

[PeteD01]

This also explains part of why the US Republican Party is sympathetic to Russia. They too are fossil fuel dependent. There are other reasons as well.

Well, Trump was recruited as a Soviet asset by the KGB in the 1980s.
That's why Trumpism is simply the American version of Putinism and the grand plan is the capture of the institutions by a mob-like political movement aligned with fossil fuel interests and other assorted oligarchs.

The increasing inability to deny the climate catastrophe has them all furious and under a lot of pressure to seize power ASAP.

Unfortunately, for these malicious actors, the first great climate war is not only not going well, but has massively accelerated the adoption of policies aimed at fossil fuel independence.
Russia experiences this as an existential threat as it sees the ruthless pursuit of its foreign interests as a God-given right, and any interference as aggression that must be countered violently, if necessary.

Is it an existential threat to the Russian imperial project?
Yes, it is - they got that right for a change.

[pecunia]

This also explains part of why the US Republican Party is sympathetic to Russia. They too are fossil fuel dependent. There are other reasons as well.

Well, Trump was recruited as a Soviet asset by the KGB in the 1980s.
That's why Trumpism is simply the American version of Putinism and the grand plan is the capture of the institutions by a mob-like political movement aligned with fossil fuel interests and other assorted oligarchs.

The increasing inability to deny the climate catastrophe has them all furious and under a lot of pressure to seize power ASAP.

Unfortunately, for these malicious actors, the first great climate war is not only not going well, but has massively accelerated the adoption of policies aimed at fossil fuel independence.
Russia experiences this as an existential threat as it sees the ruthless pursuit of its foreign interests as a God-given right, and any interference as aggression that must be countered violently, if necessary.

Is it an existential threat to the Russian imperial project?
Yes, it is - they got that right for a change.

All that frozen land of Russia is non productive.  Do they think that will change if the planet warms up?  I've read that Russia wishes to control shipping in the Arctic Ocean.  Do they really want global warming to continue?

How many windmills, geothermal plants, solar power installations, transmission lines and nuclear plants could have been built with the resources expended on this stupid war?

I imagine archeologists from outer space talking to one another.  (Maybe they are Cylons)   Their discussion will feature the fact that the human species could have saved itself if not for the resources expended on the "Special Military Operation."

[PeteD01]

Well, Trump was recruited as a Soviet asset by the KGB in the 1980s.
That's why Trumpism is simply the American version of Putinism and the grand plan is the capture of the institutions by a mob-like political movement aligned with fossil fuel interests and other assorted oligarchs.

The increasing inability to deny the climate catastrophe has them all furious and under a lot of pressure to seize power ASAP.

Unfortunately, for these malicious actors, the first great climate war is not only not going well, but has massively accelerated the adoption of policies aimed at fossil fuel independence.
Russia experiences this as an existential threat as it sees the ruthless pursuit of its foreign interests as a God-given right, and any interference as aggression that must be countered violently, if necessary.

Is it an existential threat to the Russian imperial project?
Yes, it is - they got that right for a change.

All that frozen land of Russia is non productive.  Do they think that will change if the planet warms up?  I've read that Russia wishes to control shipping in the Arctic Ocean.  Do they really want global warming to continue?

Good luck with controlling shipping in the arctic with the naval resources Russia has.
There is also no way for Russia to establish a coastal presence at scale.
The vastness of the land and the difficulty to build roads and maintain them is just mind boggling.
Thawing is making things actually even worse for them because there is even less time in the year for moving stuff.
 

How many windmills, geothermal plants, solar power installations, transmission lines and nuclear plants could have been built with the resources expended on this stupid war?

That would be a counterfactual analysis but the structural problems preventing the resources used in that way make it more a fantasy than a real exercise.


I imagine archeologists from outer space talking to one another.  (Maybe they are Cylons)   Their discussion will feature the fact that the human species could have saved itself if not for the resources expended on the "Special Military Operation."

Maybe, but although we know now that this "special operation" is a turning point of some sort, we do not know yet where we are turning.

[ChpBstrd]

Putin finally killed Prigozhin:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/23/wagner-mercenary-boss-yevgeny-prigozhin-killed-in-plane-crash.html

[jinga nation]

Putin finally killed Prigozhin:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/23/wagner-mercenary-boss-yevgeny-prigozhin-killed-in-plane-crash.html

The higher they are, they harder they fall? No Russian hospital window for him. How lucky.
One less bad person. Good.
Power vacuum in Wagner or will Putin anoint the successor, or does Wagner cease ops and fold?

[farmecologist]

Putin finally killed Prigozhin:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/23/wagner-mercenary-boss-yevgeny-prigozhin-killed-in-plane-crash.html

The higher they are, they harder they fall? No Russian hospital window for him. How lucky.
One less bad person. Good.
Power vacuum in Wagner or will Putin anoint the successor, or does Wagner cease ops and fold?

I just saw this too!  I always thought it was strange Prigozhin was just "let go" after the events of the last few weeks...and always thought he would pay the piper at some point.

Guess my hunch was correct in the end!

[Dancin'Dog]

Putin finally killed Prigozhin:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/23/wagner-mercenary-boss-yevgeny-prigozhin-killed-in-plane-crash.html

The higher they are, they harder they fall? No Russian hospital window for him. How lucky.
One less bad person. Good.
Power vacuum in Wagner or will Putin anoint the successor, or does Wagner cease ops and fold?

I just saw this too!  I always thought it was strange Prigozhin was just "let go" after the events of the last few weeks...and always thought he would pay the piper at some point.

Guess my hunch was correct in the end!

Too bad we won't allow Trump the opportunity to flee to Russia, Russia, Russia.  Putin would happily give him the ending he deserves.  LOL!

[zolotiyeruki]

Putin finally killed Prigozhin:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/23/wagner-mercenary-boss-yevgeny-prigozhin-killed-in-plane-crash.html

Whoa, that's big news, although I have to wonder why it took so long.  Definitely a "When you strike at a king, you must kill him" situation.

It doesn't help Ukraine, though. What's left of Wagner will, at best, be left as status quo.  On the other hand, Putin could complete the push to subsume them under the Russian army.

Too bad we won't allow Trump the opportunity to flee to Russia, Russia, Russia.  Putin would happily give him the ending he deserves.  LOL!

But people keep telling me that Trump is a Russian stooge!

[dividendman]

Putin finally killed Prigozhin:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/23/wagner-mercenary-boss-yevgeny-prigozhin-killed-in-plane-crash.html

What are you talking about???!1 The plane had an unfortunate crash and it's under investigation by the Russian authorities. So we won't know the cause until that investigation is complete... although the WSJ is saying witnesses saw the contrail of a SAM heading towards the plane... that was probably just something else.

[partgypsy]

Isn't being stuck in Russia a bad enough ending?

[markbike528CBX]

Hospital window, plane window, whatever. The important thing is that the defenestration was successfully accomplished.
No matter how many fingers point at Putin, no provable link will be established.
Ooops, we fired a missile, it was an accident, honest….err… nope no missile was ever used…..

I’m a little worried that my spell check includes defenestration.   

[pecunia]

Putin finally killed Prigozhin:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/23/wagner-mercenary-boss-yevgeny-prigozhin-killed-in-plane-crash.html

Whoa, that's big news, although I have to wonder why it took so long.  Definitely a "When you strike at a king, you must kill him" situation.

It doesn't help Ukraine, though. What's left of Wagner will, at best, be left as status quo.  On the other hand, Putin could complete the push to subsume them under the Russian army.

Too bad we won't allow Trump the opportunity to flee to Russia, Russia, Russia.  Putin would happily give him the ending he deserves.  LOL!

But people keep telling me that Trump is a Russian stooge!

Stooges outlive their usefulness too.  Trump has had financial dealings with Russia.  He may know something that is best kept quiet for Putin's interests.

[LennStar]

Hospital window, plane window, whatever. The important thing is that the defenestration was successfully accomplished.
No matter how many fingers point at Putin, no provable link will be established.
Ooops, we fired a missile, it was an accident, honest….err… nope no missile was ever used…..

I’m a little worried that my spell check includes defenestration.   

I would be disppointed if customs that  survived for millenia were not in there.

But really, did nobody tell Putin that you don't open windows on an airplane?

[GuitarStv]

Hospital window, plane window, whatever. The important thing is that the defenestration was successfully accomplished.
No matter how many fingers point at Putin, no provable link will be established.
Ooops, we fired a missile, it was an accident, honest….err… nope no missile was ever used…..

I’m a little worried that my spell check includes defenestration.   

I would be disppointed if customs that  survived for millenia were not in there.

But really, did nobody tell Putin that you don't open windows on an airplane?

Fake news.  You can open windows on an airplane with a SAM.  And it appears that Putin was briefed on this.

[Zamboni]

You know you are in the doghouse when you aren't just defenestrated, and you aren't just killed in a regrettable accident at home along with your family, but rather an entire planeload of people, pilots and all, inexplicably falls from the sky because you happen to be on it.

[GuitarStv]

Death is ruled natural causes - man was not naturally meant to fly.

[Glenstache]

Putin finally killed Prigozhin:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/23/wagner-mercenary-boss-yevgeny-prigozhin-killed-in-plane-crash.html

The higher they are, they harder they fall? No Russian hospital window for him. How lucky.
One less bad person. Good.
Power vacuum in Wagner or will Putin anoint the successor, or does Wagner cease ops and fold?

I just saw this too!  I always thought it was strange Prigozhin was just "let go" after the events of the last few weeks...and always thought he would pay the piper at some point.

Guess my hunch was correct in the end!

Same day as General Surovikin gets demoted, too. That demotion probably looks pretty good right about now... for a little while at least.

[dividendman]

You know you are in the doghouse when you aren't just defenestrated, and you aren't just killed in a regrettable accident at home along with your family, but rather an entire planeload of people, pilots and all, inexplicably falls from the sky because you happen to be on it.

This is the first plane crash that's due to passenger error.

[Travis]

You know you are in the doghouse when you aren't just defenestrated, and you aren't just killed in a regrettable accident at home along with your family, but rather an entire planeload of people, pilots and all, inexplicably falls from the sky because you happen to be on it.

It looks like of the 7 passengers (there were also two pilots and a flight attendant), three were Prigozhin and two of his senior officers. Dmitri Utkin was Wagner's founder, second in command, and also the guy who led the convoy that nearly reached Moscow. If you've seen photos of a scary bald guy with SS tattoos, that's him. Valeryi Chekalov was head of Wagner internal security, was responsible for Wagner's income from Syrian oil, and bought a lot of their weaponry. The other passengers were their bodyguards and longtime members of Wagner.

The video being circulated purporting to be his plane's crash shows the aircraft falling almost straight down with a puff of smoke just behind the plane that looks a lot like a missile detonation. It looks like a large piece of wing is missing during the fall.

https://twitter.com/echofm_online/status/1694390751839314029

[Zamboni]

My response to that footage is this song:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ustFrvYRjoM

[Radagast]

Note that Ukraine started destroying Russian logistics only after the attack failed.

No, they did start earlier. Last year. But the Russians are not dumb orcs, even if you name them so. They can think: If Himars shoots X miles, we place our depots X miles + 1. And we also spread them out more.
That's what they did.

What you are likely referring to are strikes outside Himars range. That was only possible because of the British Storm shadows.
If Ukraine had gotten them at the start of the year, together with the planes and helicopters and the 500 tanks they said they needed or the offensive (they got around 100) they would probably be through the lines now.

Nevertheless, a noticeable concerted effort to degrade logistics and artillery began immediately after. They could have just waited. They knew the missiles were coming.

Partly I think that while Ukraine is very capable on the technical and strategic levels, they don't seem quite there on the levels in between.

IMHO they have shown to be quite capable on all levels. It needs quite a bit of tactical proficiency to advance through a mine field without air support while shelled by countless numbers of artillery? Oh, did I say arty? Which level do you think belongs arty and counter-arty fire belongs to?

Technical

Ukraine hasn't even developed a long range missile

They have. Even one for marine (that's what supposedly sank Moaskva.)

They have not since the start of the renewed invasion. Their anti-ship missile used was developed and produced before February 2022. The only other they have managed is a modified Soviet air defense missile. And I'm disappointed because this is something which Russia has been covertly aiding other countries with, it is low hanging escalation fruit to help Ukraine speed up the design to produce one within 1.5 years.

[Mr FrugalNL]

Putin finally killed Prigozhin:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/23/wagner-mercenary-boss-yevgeny-prigozhin-killed-in-plane-crash.html

ISW thinks Putin was 'almost certainly' behind it:

Putin almost certainly ordered the Russian military command to shoot down Prigozhin’s plane. Elements of the Russian military, especially Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov, would be extremely unlikely to execute Prigozhin without Putin’s order. The entirety of the Russian political and security sphere likely viewed Prigozhin’s continued survival following Wagner’s rebellion as at Putin’s discretion. ISW will make further assessments based on the assumption that Putin ordered Prigozhin’s assassination unless evidence to the contrary emerges. ISW’s previous standing assessment that Putin was unlikely to kill Prigozhin for fear of angering Wagner personnel has thus been invalidated.[20]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-23-2023

An analyst on Dutch tv yesterday also addressed the possibility of Shoygu and Gerasimov or even someone lower down the chain of command being behind it. Prigozhin had plenty of enemies, especially after the mutiny. In that case the lesson to be drawn from this would be that Putin is weaker still than he was believed to be and may very well continue to lose power. Putin will have to protest his innocence to maintain some semblance of legitimacy (such as it is), only without actually convincing people because that would make him look weak. Interesting how dictatorships work.

I'm inclined to agree with ISW on the basis that it makes little sense for a subordinate to take the risk of attempting an assasination on their own when orders to do so seem just around the corner.

[SunnyDays]

You would think that the Wagner group’s higher-ups would have had enough sense not to fly together.

[Just Joe]

I was thinking of the crew and stewardess. I wouldn't want to be anywhere near the Wagner higher-ups. They had to know what we know - that Putin's rivals are doomed at some point.

Or maybe Russians don't know that. Mixed signals from their media, omission of facts by the media, outright lies from the government....

[dividendman]

Folks, we're wrong. The Kremlin just said any discussion of Putin having a role in this unfortunate plane crash is an "absolute lie". Also Lukashenko, the President of Belarus, says he "can't imagine Putin's involvement."

Case closed.

[LennStar]

I would assume that the pilot was from Wagner, and there was no "Stewardess" on that private plane where the big hats were planning their future (wasted effort, really).

[sixwings]

It'll be interesting to see how the power dynamics change. I read some interesting stuff that Wagner and the MOD were checks on each other to stop one of the military leaders from overthrowing Putin. They hated each other and wouldn't allow the other to gain power and Putin would intentionally play them against each other to prevent one of them coming against him. With Wagner leaderless right now the MOD could have gained more power. Chaos within Russia's military leadership is only good news for Ukraine.

[pecunia]

It'll be interesting to see how the power dynamics change. I read some interesting stuff that Wagner and the MOD were checks on each other to stop one of the military leaders from overthrowing Putin. They hated each other and wouldn't allow the other to gain power and Putin would intentionally play them against each other to prevent one of them coming against him. With Wagner leaderless right now the MOD could have gained more power. Chaos within Russia's military leadership is only good news for Ukraine.

Would not the FSB (KGB) be a counter to any action by the Ministry of Defense (MOD)?

[Michael in ABQ]

It'll be interesting to see how the power dynamics change. I read some interesting stuff that Wagner and the MOD were checks on each other to stop one of the military leaders from overthrowing Putin. They hated each other and wouldn't allow the other to gain power and Putin would intentionally play them against each other to prevent one of them coming against him. With Wagner leaderless right now the MOD could have gained more power. Chaos within Russia's military leadership is only good news for Ukraine.

Would not the FSB (KGB) be a counter to any action by the Ministry of Defense (MOD)?

Wagner reported directly to Putin unlike in most countries where military contractors fall under the military. Also, most countries don't allow contractors to have heavy equipment like tanks.

[Glenstache]

I'd be willing to bet that putin knew who was next in line after the plane went down. Those 'arrangements" are likely well laid.

[Radagast]

This week was a good week for those rooting for Russia to fail.

Still, I can't help but be disappointed in the support provided to Ukraine by Europe and the USA. It seems that Putin and Russia can do anything and those nations are too timid to counter. In terms of Europe, does nobody remember the French president who got paid to say what Putin wanted? The bribes and disinformation and lies? Murdered people? Forgot the "Catalonian separatists" and how close Spain came to being Ukraine 2? And what has any European government done to respond? Why are they trying so hard to avoid Russian defeat, when Russia and Putin have worked their asses off every day to destroy Europe? Europe half deserves (or half of Europe deserves, tending toward the west and south, and center) to live under the Russian Empire just for being so pathetic.

On to the US. I thought Biden was perfect in the first half of 2022. The real time intelligence information which united Ukrainians behind themselves, and the world behind Ukraine when Russia proved to be false. The slowly escalating weapons deliveries which both led yet followed world opinion, ultimately resulting in HIMARS which single handedly crushed Russian ambitions. Then he slacked. The next half of 2022 resulted in minimal to no extra capabilities, but at least gave the appearance of action. The first half of 2023 resulted in no new capabilities, merely a sustainment of what had been done in 2022. For why? Russia has been attacking the US with every capability, direct and indirect, throughout Putin's tenure. George W Bush gazed deep into his soul, Barrack H Obama offered to suck his dick, and Trump wholeheartedly did both as long as he got paid. And this is how the "leader of the free world" responds, milquetoast compromise and waffling? The US could singlehandedly turn over enough conventional weapons systems to conclude the war in a few months, to the great benefit of themselves and the world, and at likely no additional cost within five years considering the benefits and money saved by not demilitarizing all the stuff. (Side note, I've seen a military munitions disposal site and can vouch that it is every bit as efficient and hardworking as the DMV, if the DMV good build a fence around themselves to nobody could audit them and see what they were doing. IE nap time 6 hours per day, goof off 90 minutes, work for 30 minutes). And what the fuck is up with the Republicans? We need a Reagan or McCain  , and they roll a dozen snake eyes. Half their primary candidates are national socialists, and most of the rest seem to be closet Stalinists.

Pretty disappointed all around. We could do so much more at minimal cost, while hugely benefiting ourselves at the world in the process.

[alsoknownasDean]

I'm surprised it's taken this long for Ukraine to get access to F16s.

My view on the current state of the war is that the Russians probably realise deep down that they're not going to take much more territory now that Wagner and Surovikin are out of the picture. I suspect they now have a strategy to hold the captured territory until governments supporting Ukraine start winding down support and pushing for a peace deal...at least for the short term.

It's interesting that Ukrainian forces have managed incursions into Crimea.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66603644

I wonder if we'll see a big push by Ukrainian forces in the autumn just before conditions become inconducive to a Russian counter-attack. I've seen on Liveuamap that there's been some small gains in the Zaporizhzhia oblast. If they can capture Tokmak (or at least areas around the rail line passing through it), that'll hamper Russian logistics. Best case is probably to reach Melitopol before the ground starts getting muddy, but that might be a stretch.

As for Wagner post-Prigozhin...the question may be the loyalties of the Wagner soldiers, and if Wagner dissolves or someone else comes up to take control.

[FIPurpose]

I'm surprised it's taken this long for Ukraine to get access to F16s.

My view on the current state of the war is that the Russians probably realise deep down that they're not going to take much more territory now that Wagner and Surovikin are out of the picture. I suspect they now have a strategy to hold the captured territory until governments supporting Ukraine start winding down support and pushing for a peace deal...at least for the short term.

It's interesting that Ukrainian forces have managed incursions into Crimea.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66603644

I wonder if we'll see a big push by Ukrainian forces in the autumn just before conditions become inconducive to a Russian counter-attack. I've seen on Liveuamap that there's been some small gains in the Zaporizhzhia oblast. If they can capture Tokmak (or at least areas around the rail line passing through it), that'll hamper Russian logistics. Best case is probably to reach Melitopol before the ground starts getting muddy, but that might be a stretch.

As for Wagner post-Prigozhin...the question may be the loyalties of the Wagner soldiers, and if Wagner dissolves or someone else comes up to take control.

It does seem like Ukraine is pushing to recapture Crimea more so than Donbas. There may be some talks internally or at least the feeling that Ukraine also does not have much breathing room even with large amounts of weapons. If they are going to give away some land for a spot in NATO, it's going to be Luhansk.

[LennStar]

I think that's more because crimea is a huge thread to any offensive (because you need to divert a lot of troops for defense) anywhere else and because it's a lot easier to starve (literally and figurativly) Russian forces there, where everythign depends on one bridge, than where Russia has literally a hundred mile long border. 

Don't forget there has been a low level war in the Donbass for nearly a decade before the last Russian invasion. This area is not easy to get and keep under control.

[Radagast]

Also with control of Crimea it would be pretty easy for Ukraine to blockade all of Russia’s Black Sea ports, which are vital for its international trade. Ukraine would then have leverage to end the war on its terms. The Donbas would not be as defensible and would not confer any additional leverage. That’s really the only way I see to do it also (barring a political collapse in Russia) otherwise it would not be possible to force the return of kidnapped people deep inside Russia.

[pecunia]

Also with control of Crimea it would be pretty easy for Ukraine to blockade all of Russia’s Black Sea ports, which are vital for its international trade. Ukraine would then have leverage to end the war on its terms. The Donbas would not be as defensible and would not confer any additional leverage. That’s really the only way I see to do it also (barring a political collapse in Russia) otherwise it would not be possible to force the return of kidnapped people deep inside Russia.

Yes and they could do some nasties to the Russians on the Sea of Azov too.