Ukraine

[MustacheAndaHalf]

The whole episode has me baffled as well. The idea of it being a false flag or a sneaky way to move Wagner to Belarus makes zero sense on any level. Six helicopters, a plane, and an oil refinery seem like a pretty steep price to pay in exchange for...what?  Prigozhin, as bad as he is, doesn't strike me as being the type to blindly rush into something ("Russians don't take a dump, son, without a plan"), and the sudden pullback when on the verge of victory (of some sort) was unexpected.

The only thing that makes sense to me is that Prigozhin overplayed his hand and Putin pulled out some sort of pocket aces. I've seen it speculated that Putin may have made some stronger-than-expected retaliatory threats to Prigozhin, and offered him a face-saving exile into Belarus. I don't quite understand what would prompt Prigozhin to trust Putin to keep his end of any bargain, though. Prigozhin will likely never feel safe the rest of his life.

I never claimed Prigozhin's actions were a "false flag" operation.  He directly contradicted Putin's statements about the war, shot down Russian aircraft and sent troops on the road to Moscow.  I don't think it was a "false flag" operation.  I suspect he was after a government official (forgot which one) who managed to escape from Rostov-on-Don before Prigozhin took over the city.

What I claimed is that given the above, Putin and Prigozhin talked about a resolution that is best for Russia.  Both of them believe in their country, and in this war (and in killing innocents!).  The announced deal was Prigozhin going to Belarus, which left out what happens to Wagner mercenaries.

I predicted that Prigozhin will bring Wagner mercenaries with him, which I have since seen in a news story.  Wagner mercenaries have been offered the choice to join the regular Russian army, or join Prigozhin in Belarus.  That makes much more sense than the original deal, and I expect many Wagner mercenaries will follow Prigozhin into Belarus.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

An attack from Belarus would be an excellent counter-offensive, forcing Ukraine to go on defense partially.  That would draw troops away from their own offensive.

I'm questioning why this would be "an excellent counter-offensive".  Conventional wisdom says it's much harder to attack than defend, and Russia failed miserably in the early months of this conflict trying to attack from multiple regions at once. This was back when they had all the transport and armored carriers, and before the Ukrainians had been provided with advanced weapon systems. It lead to a vastly over-extended Russian military that suffered catastrophic casualties and then quickly lost most of its gains.

What makes you think an additional front by Russia would go better this time?

I was wrong not to separate strategy and execution.  A surprise counter-attack is an excellent strategy for Russia.  Russia has failed miserably at executing anything except civilians.  So the idea of a counter-attack to draw off Ukraine is good strategy, but based on the past year, it would be executed poorly and run into superior weapons.

[nereo]

An attack from Belarus would be an excellent counter-offensive, forcing Ukraine to go on defense partially.  That would draw troops away from their own offensive.

I'm questioning why this would be "an excellent counter-offensive".  Conventional wisdom says it's much harder to attack than defend, and Russia failed miserably in the early months of this conflict trying to attack from multiple regions at once. This was back when they had all the transport and armored carriers, and before the Ukrainians had been provided with advanced weapon systems. It lead to a vastly over-extended Russian military that suffered catastrophic casualties and then quickly lost most of its gains.

What makes you think an additional front by Russia would go better this time?

I was wrong not to separate strategy and execution.  A surprise counter-attack is an excellent strategy for Russia.  Russia has failed miserably at executing anything except civilians.  So the idea of a counter-attack to draw off Ukraine is good strategy, but based on the past year, it would be executed poorly and run into superior weapons.

Resources aren’t infinite though, which matters. Russia already seems stretched pretty thin, particularly with armored vehicles. To pull off a counter-attack that is anything less than a slaughter for Russia they would need to divert a sizeable sum of heavy infinity from elsewhere, decreasing their defensive capabilities. Ukraine would need to divert a comparably smaller number of troops to defend territory they already control and have already fortified.

[Sibley]

An attack from Belarus would be an excellent counter-offensive, forcing Ukraine to go on defense partially.  That would draw troops away from their own offensive.

I'm questioning why this would be "an excellent counter-offensive".  Conventional wisdom says it's much harder to attack than defend, and Russia failed miserably in the early months of this conflict trying to attack from multiple regions at once. This was back when they had all the transport and armored carriers, and before the Ukrainians had been provided with advanced weapon systems. It lead to a vastly over-extended Russian military that suffered catastrophic casualties and then quickly lost most of its gains.

What makes you think an additional front by Russia would go better this time?

I was wrong not to separate strategy and execution.  A surprise counter-attack is an excellent strategy for Russia.  Russia has failed miserably at executing anything except civilians.  So the idea of a counter-attack to draw off Ukraine is good strategy, but based on the past year, it would be executed poorly and run into superior weapons.

Resources aren’t infinite though, which matters. Russia already seems stretched pretty thin, particularly with armored vehicles. To pull off a counter-attack that is anything less than a slaughter for Russia they would need to divert a sizeable sum of heavy infinity from elsewhere, decreasing their defensive capabilities. Ukraine would need to divert a comparably smaller number of troops to defend territory they already control and have already fortified.

While taking advantage of the weakened defenses wherever Russia pulled the troops/equipment from.

Realistically, it's entirely possible they'll go for a strategy that is unwise. Not like Russia doesn't have a history of that.

[lemanfan]

This is leaving Ukraine for a moment, but in my understanding Wagner is also heavily involved in many African nations.  I wonder what will happen there if Wagners role and organization is changed?

[pecunia]

This is leaving Ukraine for a moment, but in my understanding Wagner is also heavily involved in many African nations.  I wonder what will happen there if Wagners role and organization is changed?

Well - Wagner had a pretty good thing going there extracting resources from Africa.  It sort of reminds me of the Empire - Colony thing.  These guys in charge of Russia have a lot of experience with that sort of thing. They know a good deal when they see it.  I've worked as a government contractor when the contracts changed. My new employer wasn't much different than the old employer.  I think it will be about the same for the Wagner people in Africa.

But there are other viewpoints by the experts:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJMIocVeEk8

[MustacheAndaHalf]

An attack from Belarus would be an excellent counter-offensive, forcing Ukraine to go on defense partially.  That would draw troops away from their own offensive.

I'm questioning why this would be "an excellent counter-offensive".  Conventional wisdom says it's much harder to attack than defend, and Russia failed miserably in the early months of this conflict trying to attack from multiple regions at once. This was back when they had all the transport and armored carriers, and before the Ukrainians had been provided with advanced weapon systems. It lead to a vastly over-extended Russian military that suffered catastrophic casualties and then quickly lost most of its gains.

What makes you think an additional front by Russia would go better this time?

I was wrong not to separate strategy and execution.  A surprise counter-attack is an excellent strategy for Russia.  Russia has failed miserably at executing anything except civilians.  So the idea of a counter-attack to draw off Ukraine is good strategy, but based on the past year, it would be executed poorly and run into superior weapons.

Resources aren’t infinite though, which matters. Russia already seems stretched pretty thin, particularly with armored vehicles. To pull off a counter-attack that is anything less than a slaughter for Russia they would need to divert a sizeable sum of heavy infinity from elsewhere, decreasing their defensive capabilities. Ukraine would need to divert a comparably smaller number of troops to defend territory they already control and have already fortified.

Satellite images show an area being cleared in Belarus.  Given the timing of thousands of Wagner mercenaries offered exile in Belarus, I think it's for them.  And if public satellite images show that much, you can bet the U.S. military is monitoring Wagner's new base already.

You're right about resources - Russia won't provide them.  Wagner just marched on Moscow after publicly fueding with the Russian Defense Minister.  He's not going to reward that behavior.  Belarus saw the attempted revolt, and won't want to arm these mercenaries in its border, either.  I expect resources to be scarce for Wagner.

At this point, it does not seem like the makings of a surprise attack.  I also expect the U.S. is monitoring the area for new vehicles and weapons systems.  Even if Wagner orders weapon systems from some other country, they should be detected before they get used at the border with Ukraine.

Another poster brought up "false flag" operations, and I clarified I did not feel this was a false flag operation.  If Wagner gets no resources, that's further evidence against the "false flag" theory.  Why have a fake revolt and then do nothing with it?  Again, that was another poster, but figured it was related and worth mentioning.

[ChpBstrd]

If Wagner is being consolidated under the Russian MoD, it doesn't make sense to under-supply them any more. Prigozhin is history, and was lucky to escape with his head (so far). Once the ex-Wagner mercenaries are official Russian soldiers, there will be no excuse for playing favorites.

Plus, several months of journalism from multiple sources gives the overwhelming impression China is supplying Russia. That means the Russians are not going to run out of ammo or basic equipment anytime soon.

Ukraine, on the other hand, is facing political pushback from some sectors of the American political scene and could be cut off if the political winds blow a certain way next year. Also worth noting is that the US has done basically nothing to prevent Russia from influencing those political winds like they did in 2016. Twitter in particular is essentially unmoderated now and has no way to deal with a disinfo campaign.

[former player]

If Wagner is being consolidated under the Russian MoD, it doesn't make sense to under-supply them any more. Prigozhin is history, and was lucky to escape with his head (so far). Once the ex-Wagner mercenaries are official Russian soldiers, there will be no excuse for playing favorites.

Plus, several months of journalism from multiple sources gives the overwhelming impression China is supplying Russia. That means the Russians are not going to run out of ammo or basic equipment anytime soon.

Ukraine, on the other hand, is facing political pushback from some sectors of the American political scene and could be cut off if the political winds blow a certain way next year. Also worth noting is that the US has done basically nothing to prevent Russia from influencing those political winds like they did in 2016. Twitter in particular is essentially unmoderated now and has no way to deal with a disinfo campaign.

Prigozhin appears to be in charge of feeding the Russian army; so seeing how that works out now will be interesting.
https://www.newsweek.com/putins-chef-wagner-group-yevgeny-prigozhin-sued-rotten-food-1776138

[zolotiyeruki]

Ukraine, on the other hand, is facing political pushback from some sectors of the American political scene and could be cut off if the political winds blow a certain way next year. Also worth noting is that the US has done basically nothing to prevent Russia from influencing those political winds like they did in 2016. Twitter in particular is essentially unmoderated now and has no way to deal with a disinfo campaign.

Don't let the media fool you on this one.  There are a very few republicans opposing military aid to Ukraine, but the overwhelming majority (including the leadership) support Ukraine, and the democrats all appear to be in Ukraine's favor as well.

Prigozhin appears to be in charge of feeding the Russian army; so seeing how that works out now will be interesting.
https://www.newsweek.com/putins-chef-wagner-group-yevgeny-prigozhin-sued-rotten-food-1776138

Not any more: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/07/01/wagner-mutiny-yevgeny-prigozhin-vladimir-putin-chef-no-more/

[LennStar]

So we now have to call him Putin's ex-cook?
That will get confusing in a few months when we will have to call him Putin's ex ex-cook.

[pecunia]

Ukraine, on the other hand, is facing political pushback from some sectors of the American political scene and could be cut off if the political winds blow a certain way next year. Also worth noting is that the US has done basically nothing to prevent Russia from influencing those political winds like they did in 2016. Twitter in particular is essentially unmoderated now and has no way to deal with a disinfo campaign.

Don't let the media fool you on this one.  There are a very few republicans opposing military aid to Ukraine, but the overwhelming majority (including the leadership) support Ukraine, and the democrats all appear to be in Ukraine's favor as well.

You may be right.  I see stories on Marjorie Taylor Greene.  She's got to be an abnormality.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

If Wagner is being consolidated under the Russian MoD, it doesn't make sense to under-supply them any more. Prigozhin is history, and was lucky to escape with his head (so far). Once the ex-Wagner mercenaries are official Russian soldiers, there will be no excuse for playing favorites.

Wagner mercenaries have a choice - stay in Russia / join the military, or go with Prigozhin into Belarus.  Also worth noting some Wagner came from Russian prisons - recruited from behind bars.  They have a really strong motivation to leave Russia, which I expected many of them to do.  But we don't need to speculate :

"Satellite images analyzed by The Associated Press on Saturday showed what appeared to be a newly built military-style camp in Belarus, with statements from a Belarusian guerrilla group and officials suggesting it may be used to house fighters from the Wagner mercenary group."

https://apnews.com/article/russia-belarus-wagner-ukraine-mercenary-mercenaries-lukashenko-82d304924c6531b95fba279acd783a84

[ChpBstrd]

If Wagner is being consolidated under the Russian MoD, it doesn't make sense to under-supply them any more. Prigozhin is history, and was lucky to escape with his head (so far). Once the ex-Wagner mercenaries are official Russian soldiers, there will be no excuse for playing favorites.

Wagner mercenaries have a choice - stay in Russia / join the military, or go with Prigozhin into Belarus.  Also worth noting some Wagner came from Russian prisons - recruited from behind bars.  They have a really strong motivation to leave Russia, which I expected many of them to do.  But we don't need to speculate :

"Satellite images analyzed by The Associated Press on Saturday showed what appeared to be a newly built military-style camp in Belarus, with statements from a Belarusian guerrilla group and officials suggesting it may be used to house fighters from the Wagner mercenary group."

https://apnews.com/article/russia-belarus-wagner-ukraine-mercenary-mercenaries-lukashenko-82d304924c6531b95fba279acd783a84

What would be the point of such a camp?

If the soldiers were being conscripted into the Russian military, that would seem to be a violation of their Wagner contracts which they fulfilled by fighting in Ukraine and they should now be free men, right? Putin's comments seem to imply he gave them exactly such a gift, but I suspect the reality on the ground is something different. Maybe the Wagner army's exile to Belarus was a condition Prigozhin negotiated to prevent the Wagner soldiers from being declared free civilians - and then immediately conscripted. I.e. they're out of prison for having served in Ukraine for their required tour of duty, but if they step into Russia they are subject to being sent back to the front lines, which is not what they signed up for. They'd have been better off in prison!

To retain command of his soldiers, maybe Prigozhin had to give them what they wanted: He had to get them out of the situation where they were being undermined and shot at from behind by the Russian army and also get them out of being forced to fight in that same army. If that's the situation on the ground, Prigozhin has led his soldiers to the promised land where they can wait out the war in a camp subsidized by ...?

Maybe Belarus is subsidizing the mercenary camp because if there were ever a threat to Lukashenko's government such as a military coup or a takeover attempt by Putin, the mercenaries would be incentivized to intervene on his behalf to preserve their ability to stay in Belarus. Pure speculation, but it seems to fit the facts so far.

[LennStar]

What would be the point of such a camp?

If the soldiers were being conscripted into the Russian military, that would seem to be a violation of their Wagner contracts which they fulfilled by fighting in Ukraine and they should now be free men, right?

Without looking it up, I am pretty sure their deal with the Russian justice system is that they are free when the war is over (or even only when the war is won).
It's not, so they are still, in the minimum, required to be Wagner soldiers. Or join the normal Russian army, as per Putins offer.

They'd have been better off in prison!

According to what I heard about Russian prisons, I would not be so sure about that ;) At least in the war you can fuck them back.

[Just Joe]

There are the neighbors nobody wants. Idle convicts fresh from war hanging around a camp next to your village.

[Dancin'Dog]

The Military Industrial Complex owns the GOP.  There’s zero chance they will decide to stop supplying arms to Ukraine.  Only the MAGA’s rabid idiots will vote against supporting Ukraine. 

[Just Joe]

Help for Ukraine = higher taxes for the MAGA folks in their mind. I could see the MTG types ranting and railing against helping Ukraine further. Ukraine prob ought to worry about Trump getting the White House again. Decisions made without facts or reason all over.

[nereo]

Help for Ukraine = higher taxes for the MAGA folks in their mind. I could see the MTG types ranting and railing against helping Ukraine further. Ukraine prob ought to worry about Trump getting the White House again. Decisions made without facts or reason all over.

Hmm … 18 months til the next inauguration, and this war is just over 16 months so far. I’m guessing the Ukrainians are more focused on what the next 1-3 months will look like and aren’t spending too much time wondering about 2025. When your daily existence is in question there’s not much room to think about “what-ifs” that are years away.

[Just Joe]

You are likely right.

[ChpBstrd]

Interesting analysis of sanctions and the probability of the Russians publishing falsified economic data:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TaiaI_NvqyU

TL;DW: Russia is probably in recession based on externally visible data, but it's hard to tell because the economy switched to a war footing.

[PeteD01]

...
I think it has to be restoration of their borders prior to the initial invasion in 2014. Anything short of that will leave Ukraine in the same position as Georgia and Moldova where Russia troops occupy a breakaway portion of the country leaving a frozen conflict that Russia can choose to reignite at any time. At a minimum, they have to recapture everything that Russia took in the latest offensive that started last year. Retaking Crimea and the Donbass may not be feasible but on the other hand Russia is only going to get weaker as time goes on while the US and Europe can supply Ukraine for years to come.

Yes, and driving Russia out of all occupied areas would make for Ukraine becoming a NATO member a much more attractive proposition for NATO.

I believe that NATO would have a hard time to admit a country with a frozen conflict within its borders - NATO is a defensive alliance and admitting a nation with legitimate claims to territories occupied by a belligerent adversary would be an unresolvable issue, unless the character of NATO changes in very undesirable ways.
 

There is a lot of noise about accession to NATO membership status for Ukraine.

I posted this some time ago and nothing has changed. NATO article 5 effectively makes it impossible for a country to join while being under occupation of a hostile force.

The idea that accession could be possible while hostilities are ongoing is nonsensical.

There is simply no way to admit a country that is either occupied or is in an ongoing conflict without changing the spirit and character of NATO.

In the long run, Ukraine is much better off with NATO remaining a firmly defensive alliance. 

[GuitarStv]

In the long run, Ukraine is much better off with NATO remaining a firmly defensive alliance.

I think NATO is much better off remaining a firmly defensive alliance.  Ukraine though . . . they may well cease to exist.

[Sibley]

In the long run, Ukraine is much better off with NATO remaining a firmly defensive alliance.

I think NATO is much better off remaining a firmly defensive alliance.  Ukraine though . . . they may well cease to exist.

Ukraine the country? Possibly. Ukraine the people? No. Not without wholesale genocide.

Want an example? Texas, and the subset of the population who can't seem to forget that for a brief time Texas was an independent country. 177 years ago.

[PeteD01]

In the long run, Ukraine is much better off with NATO remaining a firmly defensive alliance.

I think NATO is much better off remaining a firmly defensive alliance.  Ukraine though . . . they may well cease to exist.

Don´t forget that the G7 countries have made official long term commitments for military support of Ukraine.
Most of the G7 are NATO members and other nations are invited to join the agreement.
The commitments signify the end of piecemeal support for Ukraine and remove political uncertainty to an important degree.
This is as close as Ukraine can get to be considered an ally without yet being a NATO member.
This outcome was absolutely foreseeable and all the commotion was just politics to sell the inevitable to whoever it had to be sold to:

G7 countries pledge long-term support for Ukraine
Capitals will discuss bilaterally with Kyiv on arms deliveries and recovery aid.

G7 countries — and whoever else wants to join — are now expected to “immediately” start discussing with Kyiv to define the gist of those long-term security commitments, the aim of which is to “ensure a sustainable force capable of defending Ukraine now and deterring Russian aggression in the future.”

To do so, G7 countries pledge to continue sending military land, air and sea equipment, help foster Ukraine’s defense industrial base, train their forces, share intelligence and provide cyber defense support. In terms of weaponry, “air defense, artillery and long-range fires, armored vehicles, and other key capabilities, such as combat air” would be prioritized. Bilateral agreements would also include reconstruction and recovery efforts.


https://www.politico.eu/article/embargo-g7-countries-pledge-long-term-support-to-ukraine/

[LennStar]

In the long run, Ukraine is much better off with NATO remaining a firmly defensive alliance.

I think NATO is much better off remaining a firmly defensive alliance.  Ukraine though . . . they may well cease to exist.

Ukraine the country? Possibly. Ukraine the people? No. Not without wholesale genocide.

You do not seem to have listened to Putin and the Tv stations. There are literally (and on official line) talk shows about how "we" have to kill every Ukrainian that does think of himself as Ukrainian (or non-Russian). The discussion is not IF buit more about HOW, like is destroying a dam to flood away a big cities better than wasting so many of our soldiers, or should we simply throw an atomic bomb?

Not that I say you should watch them. It makes me sick after just 2 minutes. The aggressivenes in tone and words alone would be unthinkable in German TV. Like one of Fox News bestest on steroids (and often looking that).

[Sibley]

In the long run, Ukraine is much better off with NATO remaining a firmly defensive alliance.

I think NATO is much better off remaining a firmly defensive alliance.  Ukraine though . . . they may well cease to exist.

Ukraine the country? Possibly. Ukraine the people? No. Not without wholesale genocide.

You do not seem to have listened to Putin and the Tv stations. There are literally (and on official line) talk shows about how "we" have to kill every Ukrainian that does think of himself as Ukrainian (or non-Russian). The discussion is not IF buit more about HOW, like is destroying a dam to flood away a big cities better than wasting so many of our soldiers, or should we simply throw an atomic bomb?

Not that I say you should watch them. It makes me sick after just 2 minutes. The aggressivenes in tone and words alone would be unthinkable in German TV. Like one of Fox News bestest on steroids (and often looking that).

I have listened, and was also sickened. Even without translation you can feel it.

You have forgotten that a culture, a people, is not confined to a country. There are millions of Ukrainians living outside of Ukraine. There is no way that every single Ukrainian across the world can be killed. Many, perhaps most, still within Ukraine could escape if the worst happened.

How many Jews were saved from Hitler? Yes, millions of Jews were killed. But not all of them.

[Telecaster]

Ukraine the country? Possibly. Ukraine the people? No. Not without wholesale genocide.

Want an example? Texas, and the subset of the population who can't seem to forget that for a brief time Texas was an independent country. 177 years ago.

And California was a republic for about 20 minutes and they still put it on the flag when it was created 100 years later. 

[Luke Warm]

Bumping. This was an interesting and informative conversation.

[Travis]

Bumping. This was an interesting and informative conversation.

I keep an eye on it every day and there hasn't been any significant changes to talk about. Ukraine is pushing the line a hundred meters a day, and both sides are trading drones strikes across the line. Russia continues to bleed artillery at a significant rate, but not enough yet to really shut them up. The cluster bomb artillery that we sent appears to be working very well. Russia appears to have decided to start a missile campaign against Ukraine's grain storage/transfer infrastructure in the last week. So far enough grain to feed a million people has been destroyed.

[Michael in ABQ]

Now that Twitter has blocked public access I'm no longer following the OSINT accounts I used to check every few days. I was tempted to create an account just for that but frankly the news in the last few months was things are pretty much just grinding along with little movement on either side but some videos of artillery or drone strikes. Russia has built multiple defensive lines and Ukraine hasn't been able to make a real breakthrough that they can exploit - precisely because of the defense in depth and ability for both sides to see what the other is doing in near real-time.

The days of massing troops in secret for a big offensive push are over and both sides can rapidly reposition forces (relative to what was possible in other large scale conflicts like WW1 or WW2).

It's become a war of attrition and while Ukraine has received massive amounts of munitions and materiel from allies in the west, Russia started with huge stockpiles of Soviet-era munitions and materiel and has been able to continue producing some and sourcing others from Iran, China, North Korea, etc.

[Poundwise]

You can make a Mastodon account... several of the twitter accounts crosspost there.  For instance, @warmapper@mstdn.social continues to track daily changes in territory.

[zolotiyeruki]

Yeah, that's about the size of it for now.  If it weren't for the minefields, Ukraine would have a much easier time blowing through the defenses.

I'm a bit more optimistic than @Michael in ABQ , though--although Russia started a counter-counter-offensive in the north, it didn't get very far, and Ukraine is pushing it back.  Ukraine is still advancing by a few sq km per day in the south and southeast, which isn't the kind of dramatic thunder run like they had last year in Kharkiv and Kherson, but it's important to note that the line of contact is only moving one direction--in Ukraine's favor.

It's also important to keep the big picture in mind, and not get too focussed on the fighting at the front.  Russia's position is getting gradually eroded--Ukraine took out a fair chunk of the Kerch Strait road bridge a couple weeks ago, and a few days ago they took out the rail link near Chonhar, both of which will have a significant, negative impact on Russian logistics.  We don't know what Ukraine's casualty rate is, but Russia's losing about 500 men/day.  Russian counter-battery fire is way down, and they're losing a couple dozen artillery pieces daily.  I've seen reports that the Russian soldiers on the front lines haven't been rotated out in quite some time, and they're tired and unhappy.  And the further Ukraine progresses southward toward Melitopol, the closer they get to having the whole land-bridge between Russia and Crimea under fire control.  If/when they reach that point, Russian logistics in the southern Kherson region are going to be in big trouble.

And Russia doesn't seem to be able to target military installations with their missiles and drones.  They're going after grain silos.  That means that either
A) Russia has destroyed every more-militarily-useful target (hah!), or
B) Russia doesn't know where those military targets are (maybe, maybe not. They have intelligence sources, but Ukraine's been good about keeping stuff on the move), or
C) Russia knows that attempting to hit military targets will fail (probable), or
D) Russia is just going scorched earth (would be true to form), or
E) Russia is simply trying to weaken the general Ukrainian economy to the point where Ukraine falls apart, or
F) it's a case of "we gotta do something to appear strong!"

None of those possibilities would indicate that Russia is improving their position.

[pecunia]

So,.....how about these drones that have been hitting buildings in Moscow.  Russia calls them pinpricks, but given they are in the middle of a big city thousands must have seen those pinpricks.  Will that have some sort of psychological effect on the Russian people?  Really, I'm starting to wonder if Russians are human.  The people left in Russia seem to have no empathy for what they do to the Ukrainians.

Russians have been burning more enlistment centers, but the stated reasons are rather bizarre.  They don't seem opposed to this war.

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

So,.....how about these drones that have been hitting buildings in Moscow.  Russia calls them pinpricks, but given they are in the middle of a big city thousands must have seen those pinpricks.  Will that have some sort of psychological effect on the Russian people?  Really, I'm starting to wonder if Russians are human.  The people left in Russia seem to have no empathy for what they do to the Ukrainians.

Russians have been burning more enlistment centers, but the stated reasons are rather bizarre.  They don't seem opposed to this war.

Russians are barely human. Russia never went through the Enlightenment and is essentially a Khanate. Russians don't have the sort of whig historiography common in the west where human endeavors are viewed generally as a march towards improvement and progress. This means the Russians are massively fatalistic and resigned in their dispositions. Many are not evil but are merely Oblomovs or useful idiots or too poor to care about any broader ideals.

[MOD NOTE: User has been warned.]

[Sibley]

So,.....how about these drones that have been hitting buildings in Moscow.  Russia calls them pinpricks, but given they are in the middle of a big city thousands must have seen those pinpricks.  Will that have some sort of psychological effect on the Russian people?  Really, I'm starting to wonder if Russians are human.  The people left in Russia seem to have no empathy for what they do to the Ukrainians.

Russians have been burning more enlistment centers, but the stated reasons are rather bizarre.  They don't seem opposed to this war.

Russians are barely human. Russia never went through the Enlightenment and is essentially a Khanate. Russians don't have the sort of whig historiography common in the west where human endeavors are viewed generally as a march towards improvement and progress. This means the Russians are massively fatalistic and resigned in their dispositions. Many are not evil but are merely Oblomovs or useful idiots or too poor to care about any broader ideals.

No. No, we are NOT going to do that. They are human beings, they are deserving of compassion and kindness, just like ANY OTHER HUMAN. Either you acknowledge the humanness and worth of ALL humans, regardless of their circumstances, or you degrade all human dignity.

Dehumanization leads only to bad things. DO NOT do it.

[Dancin'Dog]

So,.....how about these drones that have been hitting buildings in Moscow.  Russia calls them pinpricks, but given they are in the middle of a big city thousands must have seen those pinpricks.  Will that have some sort of psychological effect on the Russian people?  Really, I'm starting to wonder if Russians are human.  The people left in Russia seem to have no empathy for what they do to the Ukrainians.

Russians have been burning more enlistment centers, but the stated reasons are rather bizarre.  They don't seem opposed to this war.

Russians are barely human. Russia never went through the Enlightenment and is essentially a Khanate. Russians don't have the sort of whig historiography common in the west where human endeavors are viewed generally as a march towards improvement and progress. This means the Russians are massively fatalistic and resigned in their dispositions. Many are not evil but are merely Oblomovs or useful idiots or too poor to care about any broader ideals.

No. No, we are NOT going to do that. They are human beings, they are deserving of compassion and kindness, just like ANY OTHER HUMAN. Either you acknowledge the humanness and worth of ALL humans, regardless of their circumstances, or you degrade all human dignity.

Dehumanization leads only to bad things. DO NOT do it.

@Sibley,


Well said.  Thank you.

[LennStar]

Really, I'm starting to wonder if Russians are human.  The people left in Russia seem to have no empathy for what they do to the Ukrainians.

Russians have been burning more enlistment centers, but the stated reasons are rather bizarre.  They don't seem opposed to this war.

Why should you be opposed to a war against Nazis just to end up in a horrible prison for years?
Not to mention that the south Russians, instead of being happy to be saved, dared to shoot at us!! They must be punished like the children that won't hear what their parents say, that they are!

[Radagast]

Lots of thoughts in that past month...
I don't think Ukraine really was counting on the original move of their summer offensive to succeed, or only as a long shot. I do think it caused Russia to show a few cards and was likely the proximate cause of the dam destruction. Note that Ukraine started destroying Russian logistics only after the attack failed. If they wanted to increase the odds they'd have started with logistics. Nevertheless, I also don't feel it was a feint. What's the point of feinting? Everyone can see every move now, and there isn't much point. They were serious and if they weren't stopped they'd have gone all the way. What they were really doing was giving themselves options.

Regarding options, and since investing is a big part of this forum, what kind of options? I am not an options expert at all, but I think they are buying puts: paying now for the option to force a sale later at a more favorable price. Buying puts requires real money, and in this "market" exercising the option also costs a large amount of money. They might run out of money with nothing to show, or the puts might expire. Nevertheless, this strategy allows them pay a large number of relatively small costs in a carefully controlled fashion, and if the price is right, they can potentially reap a windfall. So far they haven't found a strike price they are satisfied with, but I think they will.

Russia has kept up longer than I expected them to. I did not expect them to literally lose their entire army and all Soviet inheritance in a failed war against the formerly most Russophile nation. It is so stupid on every level. Also Ukraine has not proved as capable as I had hoped. Partly I think that while Ukraine is very capable on the technical and strategic levels, they don't seem quite there on the levels in between. Another factor is that, so far as I can tell, "western" nations have not helped nearly as much as I would have thought or hoped. Many obviously useful weapons systems are not present, only in small numbers, or dribbled out very late. Training is small or late and to date Ukraine hasn't even developed a long range missile with secret tips which would be more than fair since North Korea has obviously been receiving many tips.

I still think all trends point to Ukraine winning (I originally thought 15 months if Ukraine was good, 30 if they were just average but expected they were good). The deciding factor in the war will be Russian equipment. Once they are out of Soviet stocks their production will not be able to maintain supplies at a level necessary for the current combat intensity, and they'll be out. As an example, if it takes Russia 5 tanks per day to be on offense, 3 per day to be on defense, and 1 per day is their production capacity, then once their stock is exhausted they can no longer fight effectively at the necessary intensity for either. Which isn't too say tanks are the weak point, but some sort of Russian equipment is. The "western" nations obviously have a huge advantage in equipment and production unless China supplies Russia with major items in major quantities. The Oryx list is a great way to track the fortunes of the war, and based on that this summer's offensive seems to be going relatively better than last summer's. I still think that Russia will lose as a result of insufficient material to meet their goals before the Oryx list gets to 20,000. Of course they won't have to stop fighting unless Ukraine is allowed to carry on into Russia, but they will no longer be able to hold onto any part of Ukraine.

[Radagast]

So,.....how about these drones that have been hitting buildings in Moscow.  Russia calls them pinpricks, but given they are in the middle of a big city thousands must have seen those pinpricks.  Will that have some sort of psychological effect on the Russian people?  Really, I'm starting to wonder if Russians are human.  The people left in Russia seem to have no empathy for what they do to the Ukrainians.

Russians have been burning more enlistment centers, but the stated reasons are rather bizarre.  They don't seem opposed to this war.

Russians are barely human. Russia never went through the Enlightenment and is essentially a Khanate. Russians don't have the sort of whig historiography common in the west where human endeavors are viewed generally as a march towards improvement and progress. This means the Russians are massively fatalistic and resigned in their dispositions. Many are not evil but are merely Oblomovs or useful idiots or too poor to care about any broader ideals.

No. No, we are NOT going to do that. They are human beings, they are deserving of compassion and kindness, just like ANY OTHER HUMAN. Either you acknowledge the humanness and worth of ALL humans, regardless of their circumstances, or you degrade all human dignity.

Dehumanization leads only to bad things. DO NOT do it.

And responsibility. Animals are deserving of compassion and kindness, but humans also get responsibility.

[Travis]

https://vxtwitter.com/MalcontentmentT/status/1687324100967202817

https://vxtwitter.com/teoyaomiquu/status/1687346322708262912?s=46&t=JvLJ9zNTciGz_hXfHEgE1Q

There were reports a few days ago of Ukrainian sea drone attacks on several Russian targets. An oil terminal outside Novorossiysk is allegedly burning as of today (first video), and the second is the Olenegorsky transport ship hit in open water near the Crimean coast.

[LennStar]

Note that Ukraine started destroying Russian logistics only after the attack failed.

No, they did start earlier. Last year. But the Russians are not dumb orcs, even if you name them so. They can think: If Himars shoots X miles, we place our depots X miles + 1. And we also spread them out more.
That's what they did.

What you are likely referring to are strikes outside Himars range. That was only possible because of the British Storm shadows.
If Ukraine had gotten them at the start of the year, together with the planes and helicopters and the 500 tanks they said they needed or the offensive (they got around 100) they would probably be through the lines now.

Partly I think that while Ukraine is very capable on the technical and strategic levels, they don't seem quite there on the levels in between.

IMHO they have shown to be quite capable on all levels. It needs quite a bit of tactical proficiency to advance through a mine field without air support while shelled by countless numbers of artillery? Oh, did I say arty? Which level do you think belongs arty and counter-arty fire belongs to?

Ukraine hasn't even developed a long range missile

They have. Even one for marine (that's what supposedly sank Moaskva.)

[zolotiyeruki]

So,.....how about these drones that have been hitting buildings in Moscow.  Russia calls them pinpricks, but given they are in the middle of a big city thousands must have seen those pinpricks.  Will that have some sort of psychological effect on the Russian people?  Really, I'm starting to wonder if Russians are human.  The people left in Russia seem to have no empathy for what they do to the Ukrainians.

Russians have been burning more enlistment centers, but the stated reasons are rather bizarre.  They don't seem opposed to this war.

Russians are barely human. Russia never went through the Enlightenment and is essentially a Khanate. Russians don't have the sort of whig historiography common in the west where human endeavors are viewed generally as a march towards improvement and progress. This means the Russians are massively fatalistic and resigned in their dispositions. Many are not evil but are merely Oblomovs or useful idiots or too poor to care about any broader ideals.

Wow, that is wildly inappropriate, and just plain wrong.  I lived in Russia for two years as a young adult.  Most people there are just...normal people, trying to support themselves and their families, in a country that is run by criminal organizations.  Yes, Russia has big problems with alcoholism, crime, corruption, poverty, demographics, hooliganism, and a bad economy.  And yeah, some of their people have shown the worst mankind has to offer over the past 18 months.  But when I lived there, such people were very rare and not representative of the population as a whole.

[Samuel]

So,.....how about these drones that have been hitting buildings in Moscow.  Russia calls them pinpricks, but given they are in the middle of a big city thousands must have seen those pinpricks.  Will that have some sort of psychological effect on the Russian people?  Really, I'm starting to wonder if Russians are human.  The people left in Russia seem to have no empathy for what they do to the Ukrainians.

Russians have been burning more enlistment centers, but the stated reasons are rather bizarre.  They don't seem opposed to this war.

Russians are barely human. Russia never went through the Enlightenment and is essentially a Khanate. Russians don't have the sort of whig historiography common in the west where human endeavors are viewed generally as a march towards improvement and progress. This means the Russians are massively fatalistic and resigned in their dispositions. Many are not evil but are merely Oblomovs or useful idiots or too poor to care about any broader ideals.

Wow, that is wildly inappropriate, and just plain wrong.  I lived in Russia for two years as a young adult.  Most people there are just...normal people, trying to support themselves and their families, in a country that is run by criminal organizations.  Yes, Russia has big problems with alcoholism, crime, corruption, poverty, demographics, hooliganism, and a bad economy.  And yeah, some of their people have shown the worst mankind has to offer over the past 18 months.  But when I lived there, such people were very rare and not representative of the population as a whole.

One should probably also learn about just how heavy handed the state control of media and internet is in Russia before judging the humanity of the average person there based on their attitudes towards this war special operation.

[pecunia]

So,.....how about these drones that have been hitting buildings in Moscow.  Russia calls them pinpricks, but given they are in the middle of a big city thousands must have seen those pinpricks.  Will that have some sort of psychological effect on the Russian people?  Really, I'm starting to wonder if Russians are human.  The people left in Russia seem to have no empathy for what they do to the Ukrainians.

Russians have been burning more enlistment centers, but the stated reasons are rather bizarre.  They don't seem opposed to this war.

Russians are barely human. Russia never went through the Enlightenment and is essentially a Khanate. Russians don't have the sort of whig historiography common in the west where human endeavors are viewed generally as a march towards improvement and progress. This means the Russians are massively fatalistic and resigned in their dispositions. Many are not evil but are merely Oblomovs or useful idiots or too poor to care about any broader ideals.

Wow, that is wildly inappropriate, and just plain wrong.  I lived in Russia for two years as a young adult.  Most people there are just...normal people, trying to support themselves and their families, in a country that is run by criminal organizations.  Yes, Russia has big problems with alcoholism, crime, corruption, poverty, demographics, hooliganism, and a bad economy.  And yeah, some of their people have shown the worst mankind has to offer over the past 18 months.  But when I lived there, such people were very rare and not representative of the population as a whole.

One should probably also learn about just how heavy handed the state control of media and internet is in Russia before judging the humanity of the average person there based on their attitudes towards this war special operation.

I guess one aspect of this thing is that Russians are fed information from the gangsters that run the government.  They tell the average Ivan what they want them to hear and the version of reality that they want them to hear.  Most people just live their lives and do not question what they are told.  They drink the Kool Aid.  Old Putin understood this and shut any alternative news sources down quite some time ago.  I guess I just expect too much enlightenment from them.

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

So,.....how about these drones that have been hitting buildings in Moscow.  Russia calls them pinpricks, but given they are in the middle of a big city thousands must have seen those pinpricks.  Will that have some sort of psychological effect on the Russian people?  Really, I'm starting to wonder if Russians are human.  The people left in Russia seem to have no empathy for what they do to the Ukrainians.

Russians have been burning more enlistment centers, but the stated reasons are rather bizarre.  They don't seem opposed to this war.

Russians are barely human. Russia never went through the Enlightenment and is essentially a Khanate. Russians don't have the sort of whig historiography common in the west where human endeavors are viewed generally as a march towards improvement and progress. This means the Russians are massively fatalistic and resigned in their dispositions. Many are not evil but are merely Oblomovs or useful idiots or too poor to care about any broader ideals.

Wow, that is wildly inappropriate, and just plain wrong.  I lived in Russia for two years as a young adult.  Most people there are just...normal people, trying to support themselves and their families, in a country that is run by criminal organizations.  Yes, Russia has big problems with alcoholism, crime, corruption, poverty, demographics, hooliganism, and a bad economy.  And yeah, some of their people have shown the worst mankind has to offer over the past 18 months.  But when I lived there, such people were very rare and not representative of the population as a whole.

I strongly disagree that they are "just normal people" as if centuries of cultural and institutional evolution in a country is an irrelevant footnote. I think also of the the fallacy of the last Iraq War with the ostensible goal of "winning hearts and minds" and bringing democracy to a country lacking the historical prerequisites for anything resembling such, though I suppose things are going better there than they did in Afghanistan which ultimately had nothing to show for 20 years of US administration. It's a bit of a corollary to Pinker's rejection of the notion of a blank slate condition in humans due to our minds being heavily constrained by the forces of evolutionary psychology. Culture is similarly very deep and hard to change.

Yes, there are good Russians. I didn't mean to say they were bad; just that they tend to have a different set of values and norms deeply rooted in their culture. As just one example, Russia has centuries of political repression in its history so its no wonder people are not comfortable or accustomed to questioning political authority in the country, which certainly helps maintain the status quo wrt current events.

I admit I made the point as harshly as possible, though that was an attempt to make it as much as a counterpoint to cultural blank slate thinking as I could for emphasis. Russia has had occasional flirtations with western ideals even if ultimately they did not properly take root. The Russian coat of arms with the two headed eagle is a good symbol of the tension between liberal western and illiberal values. Contrast the largely autocratic history of Russia with that of the US where classical liberal ideals have held sway for 250 years, having been inherited from even older traditions incubated in Great Britain. Coming from one tradition versus another carries with it a lot of implicit attitudes and assumptions that are hard to unwind. It took me a long time to realize how deeply these implicit worldviews run even though I'm half Russian and for a long time had trouble reconciling attitudes of my American vs Russian family. Things make a lot more sense to me now.

[Posthumane]

There's a huge delta between saying that someone doesn't share the same cultural values as westerners and saying that they are barely human. Western values and culture are not defining features of humanity. People in Russia, and Iraq, and Kenya, and anywhere else are "just normal people" and unfortunately having large parts of ones outlook on the world be defined by the culture one grew up in is actually a common characteristic of "just normal people" around the world.

You and I may not like the way other people think or behave in other cultures, and if you had simply said that there is no way they would be able to adapt to our values without major cultural shifts (which are probably impossible in one lifetime) then probably more people would agree with you. But to deny a person's humanity because of that disagreement in cultural values is totally senseless. One could, in fact, argue that it's us westerners that are less human than many other cultures, since upholding liberal values is not something that comes naturally to humanity.

[Dancin'Dog]

Ukraine's naval drone attack on the Russian warship seems like an impressive feat.  Hopefully, we will see many more of these attacks.


Something is so satisfying about watching a cheap weapon destroy such a huge expensive warship. 

[Travis]

Ukraine's naval drone attack on the Russian warship seems like an impressive feat.  Hopefully, we will see many more of these attacks.


Something is so satisfying about watching a cheap weapon destroy such a huge expensive warship.

Video of the tanker hit.

https://vxtwitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1687683453045665792

[pecunia]

There's a huge delta between saying that someone doesn't share the same cultural values as westerners and saying that they are barely human. Western values and culture are not defining features of humanity. People in Russia, and Iraq, and Kenya, and anywhere else are "just normal people" and unfortunately having large parts of ones outlook on the world be defined by the culture one grew up in is actually a common characteristic of "just normal people" around the world.

You and I may not like the way other people think or behave in other cultures, and if you had simply said that there is no way they would be able to adapt to our values without major cultural shifts (which are probably impossible in one lifetime) then probably more people would agree with you. But to deny a person's humanity because of that disagreement in cultural values is totally senseless. One could, in fact, argue that it's us westerners that are less human than many other cultures, since upholding liberal values is not something that comes naturally to humanity.

Part f being human is to feel.  To kill without the feeling of remorse is lacking something fundamental.