Ukraine

[lemanfan]

Closer picture of the road part:

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1578618064219688960

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

Closer picture of the road part:

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1578618064219688960

I'm fairly convinced from the lack of damage on the upper surface of the road that it was the boat you briefly see at 0:03 in this video directly under the bridge right at the moment of the explosion:
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1578632595633758208

[Travis]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1578637477807783936 Daylight footage with the train fire put out. Westbound road is gone, eastbound has a buckled section. Rail line probably needs to be inspected for any heat damage.

[LennStar]

Closer picture of the road part:

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1578618064219688960

I'm fairly convinced from the lack of damage on the upper surface of the road that it was the boat you briefly see at 0:03 in this video directly under the bridge right at the moment of the explosion:
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1578632595633758208

Definitely looks like the explosion startet with the boat. wow! Partisan work I guess.

I am actually a bit envious. Not many people get to blow up one of the biggest bridges in the world.

[PeteD01]

I have little doubt that the Kerch railway bridge is severely structurally weakened by the fuel fire. If the fire that is seen on the picture burned for any extended period of time that is:

[PeteD01]

Here is eyewitness video footage of the same section showing that the fire was left to burn at high intensity due to high winds while enveloping the span:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1578658526066462720

[PeteD01]

Putin´s birthday cake:

[pecunia]

Here is eyewitness video footage of the same section showing that the fire was left to burn at high intensity due to high winds while enveloping the span:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1578658526066462720

Happy Birthday Mr. Putin.

[former player]

I have little doubt that the Kerch railway bridge is severely structurally weakened by the fuel fire. If the fire that is seen on the picture burned for any extended period of time that is:

Russia is claiming that rail traffic over the bridge will start again this evening. I'll believe it when I see it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-63183783

[zolotiyeruki]

I have little doubt that the Kerch railway bridge is severely structurally weakened by the fuel fire. If the fire that is seen on the picture burned for any extended period of time that is:

Russia is claiming that rail traffic over the bridge will start again this evening. I'll believe it when I see it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-63183783

They also said it was a tanker car that blew up.

Even if the train bridge is still operational, and even if they repair the one road section, even if the explosion has no material effect on Russia's logistics, this is an astounding event.

I'd put it on the same level with the Dolittle raid from WWII.

[PeteD01]

This video shows that steel that was directly exposed to the fire is deformed in at least one section of the railway bridge. We also know that the fire was left to burn itself out over several hours:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1578638416194912256

[Travis]

Current Russian narrative is that the 18-wheeler is the source and is somehow the fault of Ukraine. Like everything else that has mysteriously caught fire in Russia, they're going to try to juggle "enemy action" and "gross incompetence" since the truck originated from the Russian side of the bridge and went through an inspection before being allowed on. 

[PeteD01]

Well, well, the empire isn´t doing so well these days:

A Distracted Russia Is Losing Its Grip on Its Old Soviet Sphere

Russia’s domination of Central Asia and the Caucasus region is unraveling as the Kremlin focuses on the war in Ukraine — and border violence is flaring.

With the Kremlin distracted by its flagging war more than 1,500 miles away in Ukraine, Russia’s dominium over its old Soviet empire shows signs of unraveling. Moscow has lost its aura and its grip, creating a disorderly vacuum that previously obedient former Soviet satraps, as well as China, are moving to fill.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/08/world/asia/russia-putin-soviet.html

[pecunia]

Well, well, the empire isn´t doing so well these days:

A Distracted Russia Is Losing Its Grip on Its Old Soviet Sphere

Russia’s domination of Central Asia and the Caucasus region is unraveling as the Kremlin focuses on the war in Ukraine — and border violence is flaring.

With the Kremlin distracted by its flagging war more than 1,500 miles away in Ukraine, Russia’s dominium over its old Soviet empire shows signs of unraveling. Moscow has lost its aura and its grip, creating a disorderly vacuum that previously obedient former Soviet satraps, as well as China, are moving to fill.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/08/world/asia/russia-putin-soviet.html

Who is number 3?

With the lackluster performance of the Russian military, I've seen articles that it is no longer the number 3 military force in the world. 
1. USA
2. China
3. Japan?

[Sibley]

Here is eyewitness video footage of the same section showing that the fire was left to burn at high intensity due to high winds while enveloping the span:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1578658526066462720

Happy Birthday Mr. Putin.

I am not pleased to find that I share a birthday with that maniac.

[TomTX]

This video shows that steel that was directly exposed to the fire is deformed in at least one section of the railway bridge. We also know that the fire was left to burn itself out over several hours:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1578638416194912256

The deformation shown is just the catwalk. Utterly irrelevant to the structural steel holding the bridge up.

[TomTX]

Longstanding side note: Russia and France and Netherlands and like 5 other countries badly need a redesigned flag. Three red white and blue stripes: not very original!

I've always felt countries whose flags have been around since the age of sail get a pass on creative flag design. A small handful of primary colors that are easy to distinguish at a distance, even after different amounts of weathering and fading and with both the flag and the lookout being tossed about by waves, arranged in different orders and/or rotated between horizontal and vertical was definitely the way to go back then.

Is it a coincidence that Nebraska, the only triply land-locked state in the nation, has what is largely regarded as one of the worst designed flags ever? Almost certainly, yes, it is a coincidence. But still a fun bit of trivia to bring up in this context.

Yet while Maryland has a flag which breaks nearly every rule of good flag design, they ended up with an awesome and easily recognizable flag.

[Just Joe]

I have little doubt that the Kerch railway bridge is severely structurally weakened by the fuel fire. If the fire that is seen on the picture burned for any extended period of time that is:

Russia is claiming that rail traffic over the bridge will start again this evening. I'll believe it when I see it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-63183783

Hehehe - Russia claims alot of things on a regular basis.

[Just Joe]

Here is eyewitness video footage of the same section showing that the fire was left to burn at high intensity due to high winds while enveloping the span:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1578658526066462720

Happy Birthday Mr. Putin.

I am not pleased to find that I share a birthday with that maniac.

Well, I hope you had a better birthday than the Russian manic.

[PeteD01]

This video shows that steel that was directly exposed to the fire is deformed in at least one section of the railway bridge. We also know that the fire was left to burn itself out over several hours:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1578638416194912256

The deformation shown is just the catwalk. Utterly irrelevant to the structural steel holding the bridge up.

Only objective indicator of the temperature at the site of the blaze we have that indicates that a temperature sufficient to affect steel was achieved.
And that is the relevance of the observation.

[Sibley]

Here is eyewitness video footage of the same section showing that the fire was left to burn at high intensity due to high winds while enveloping the span:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1578658526066462720

Happy Birthday Mr. Putin.

I am not pleased to find that I share a birthday with that maniac.

Well, I hope you had a better birthday than the Russian manic.

Unfortunately, not really. I've got a cat who's unexpectedly flipping into hospice and I'm pretty down. But thank you for the thought.

[Abe]

This video shows that steel that was directly exposed to the fire is deformed in at least one section of the railway bridge. We also know that the fire was left to burn itself out over several hours:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1578638416194912256

The deformation shown is just the catwalk. Utterly irrelevant to the structural steel holding the bridge up.

Only objective indicator of the temperature at the site of the blaze we have that indicates that a temperature sufficient to affect steel was achieved.
And that is the relevance of the observation.

Reinforced concrete can suffer structural weakness due to expansion of the steel inside the concrete during a fire, but it can take several hours to even begin to cause this type of damage. Even standard building codes (in the West, at least) require structural integrity for up to 4 hours during a building fire. On the other hand, obviously buildings are usually not coated in thousands of gallons of flammable liquid with another couple thousand tons of metal train cars on top. I guess the only way to find out is when someone posts a video of a loaded train going over the damaged section.

This whole episode shows how little aircraft are playing in this war at this point (on both sides).

[LennStar]

Well, well, the empire isn´t doing so well these days:

A Distracted Russia Is Losing Its Grip on Its Old Soviet Sphere

Russia’s domination of Central Asia and the Caucasus region is unraveling as the Kremlin focuses on the war in Ukraine — and border violence is flaring.

With the Kremlin distracted by its flagging war more than 1,500 miles away in Ukraine, Russia’s dominium over its old Soviet empire shows signs of unraveling. Moscow has lost its aura and its grip, creating a disorderly vacuum that previously obedient former Soviet satraps, as well as China, are moving to fill.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/08/world/asia/russia-putin-soviet.html

Who is number 3?

With the lackluster performance of the Russian military, I've seen articles that it is no longer the number 3 military force in the world. 
1. USA
2. China
3. Japan?

Ukraine of course.

There seems to be some sort of riot in Moscow, with militaries being arrested by police. Fist sign of the inside collapse?

[PeteD01]

This video shows that steel that was directly exposed to the fire is deformed in at least one section of the railway bridge. We also know that the fire was left to burn itself out over several hours:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1578638416194912256

The deformation shown is just the catwalk. Utterly irrelevant to the structural steel holding the bridge up.

Only objective indicator of the temperature at the site of the blaze we have that indicates that a temperature sufficient to affect steel was achieved.
And that is the relevance of the observation.

Reinforced concrete can suffer structural weakness due to expansion of the steel inside the concrete during a fire, but it can take several hours to even begin to cause this type of damage. Even standard building codes (in the West, at least) require structural integrity for up to 4 hours during a building fire. On the other hand, obviously buildings are usually not coated in thousands of gallons of flammable liquid with another couple thousand tons of metal train cars on top. I guess the only way to find out is when someone posts a video of a loaded train going over the damaged section.

This whole episode shows how little aircraft are playing in this war at this point (on both sides).

And there is also the effect of heat on the concrete itself and we know that the temperature in some areas was well above the critical temperature (deformed steel).
We also know that there were high winds creating a furnace effect that is clearly seen on videos and stills and that definitely increased temperature in certain areas.
We know that the fire was left to burn out and that took several hours. Damage to the concrete and steel is determined by exposure time and temperature and given that there was a furnace effect, it must be assumed that extreme temperatures might have developed in spots.
Given all that, it looks to me that the affected spans must be assumed to be structurally unsound.
The Kerch railway bridge has two tracks but they are laid on single spans so the structural problems affect both tracks.
All that said, even assuming that the railway bridge is brought back into service, the attack has revealed that the entire RU operation in southern Ukraine is critically dependent on the Kerch railway bridge: there really is no way to get sufficient supplies to RU forces with the Kerch bridge out of service.

The Kerch bridge attack is a truly catastrophic event for RU that upended the propaganda space by unequivocally demonstrating RU weakness and that massively interferes with the RU effort in southern Ukraine.
 

[PeteD01]

And now this. I had not seen this yet: water appears to have been dumped on the hot bridge using helicopters. So they thought shock cooling the mess is a good idea. Reminds me of that UA soldier who said: "We are lucky that they are so f*cking stupid" - I got nothing to add to that:

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1579160189160157184/photo/1

[lost_in_the_endless_aisle]

This video shows that steel that was directly exposed to the fire is deformed in at least one section of the railway bridge. We also know that the fire was left to burn itself out over several hours:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1578638416194912256

The deformation shown is just the catwalk. Utterly irrelevant to the structural steel holding the bridge up.

Only objective indicator of the temperature at the site of the blaze we have that indicates that a temperature sufficient to affect steel was achieved.
And that is the relevance of the observation.

Reinforced concrete can suffer structural weakness due to expansion of the steel inside the concrete during a fire, but it can take several hours to even begin to cause this type of damage. Even standard building codes (in the West, at least) require structural integrity for up to 4 hours during a building fire. On the other hand, obviously buildings are usually not coated in thousands of gallons of flammable liquid with another couple thousand tons of metal train cars on top. I guess the only way to find out is when someone posts a video of a loaded train going over the damaged section.

This whole episode shows how little aircraft are playing in this war at this point (on both sides).

Some updates here. The "reopening" of the rail track is mentioned, with the video of a single 15 car train (unloaded, presumably) appearing to be legit. It's clear if this happened in the US or Europe, the tracks would be closed for weeks just for inspections, but the Russians may feel various forms of pressure to be far less risk-averse in this situation.

[Taran Wanderer]

Putin accuses Ukraine of “terrorism” for the strike on the Crimea bridge.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63195504

I burst out laughing when I read that. The hypocrisy is mind blowing. Unbelievable.

[Jack0Life]

Putin accuses Ukraine of “terrorism” for the strike on the Crimea bridge.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63195504

I burst out laughing when I read that. The hypocrisy is mind blowing. Unbelievable.

Man, I was just about to post this. It's laughable.
You figure these people would have some type of common sensibility.
You've been firing missiles into civilian buildings since the beginning of the war. Putin get's a bit of his own medicines and start crying "terrorisms".

Putin can't win this war. It's impossible at this point as long as Ukraine gets support from the US and NATO.
The only thing Putin has left is to threaten "nuclear" over and over.
I truly hope he will not resort to firing one but if he ever does, it's really over for Russia. I mean the amount of power the US and NATO have in retaliations will be shock and awe.
Russia can't even defeat a small country like Ukraine, how on earth can it withstand the US and NATO ??

[Radagast]

While I am making bold predictions, I think Ukraine's winter offensive will be across the Dnipro reservoir. They are supposed to be receiving a bunch of bridges and boats and air defence systems between now and December, and it is the obvious weak point in Russian lines. They will wait for a series of cloudy/foggy days, and boom. (I keep making bold predictions and they keep being right, so might as well go all in.)

I'll double down until events prove me wrong. Kherson (city) must still be occupied when this happens as a distraction. If Kherson is recaptured first then it will be too obvious what the next move will be, which will make it harder. I thought this since July, when they were advertising a Kherson offensive and I thought "that doesn't make much sense." The recapture of the northern part of the province (NW of the river) was to take a narrower crossing. Yes they could co through Zaporizhzhia area, but that will be heavily defended and is to be avoided.

[Travis]

This video shows that steel that was directly exposed to the fire is deformed in at least one section of the railway bridge. We also know that the fire was left to burn itself out over several hours:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1578638416194912256

The deformation shown is just the catwalk. Utterly irrelevant to the structural steel holding the bridge up.

Only objective indicator of the temperature at the site of the blaze we have that indicates that a temperature sufficient to affect steel was achieved.
And that is the relevance of the observation.

Reinforced concrete can suffer structural weakness due to expansion of the steel inside the concrete during a fire, but it can take several hours to even begin to cause this type of damage. Even standard building codes (in the West, at least) require structural integrity for up to 4 hours during a building fire. On the other hand, obviously buildings are usually not coated in thousands of gallons of flammable liquid with another couple thousand tons of metal train cars on top. I guess the only way to find out is when someone posts a video of a loaded train going over the damaged section.

This whole episode shows how little aircraft are playing in this war at this point (on both sides).

Some updates here. The "reopening" of the rail track is mentioned, with the video of a single 15 car train (unloaded, presumably) appearing to be legit. It's clear if this happened in the US or Europe, the tracks would be closed for weeks just for inspections, but the Russians may feel various forms of pressure to be far less risk-averse in this situation.

As of Sunday morning US time, the burned oil cars were forklifted off the rail, and no other trains have crossed since that test case yesterday.

[Radagast]

I give it a 50/50 whether the rail bridge will still be usable. Actually I lean toward it still being usable in some capacity. The bridge was fully loaded when the fire occurred and yet didn't collapse, so that is a good sign it retains at least some structural integrity. For an example of a steel structure which lost integrity under load see the World Trade Center. I am unable to determine offhandedly from the photos if it suffered severe damage, I can certainly see cosmetic damage but I can't tell about the structural elements. Steel is a very resilient material, the most resilient of all civil engineering materials. It is also very predictable, which is actually its main selling point aside from cost. You know if it is going to fail because there will be groaning and necking, and it is possible to determine if it left its elastic strain zone. If the fire caused the steel to lose 75% of its strength, and it had a factor of safety of 4, then nothing happened although its lifecycle was probably reduced from 100 million train loadings to 1 or 10 million train loadings. If the steel didn't get hot enough to become fully molten, then its crystal structure didn't change. Yes temperature differentials are bad, but in a military operation the bridge can be operated at a much lower margin of safety than in peace time and still be considered acceptable.

The rail bridge appears to be steel beams on reinforced concrete columns. I doubt the columns were impacted much but who knows. IMO the weak point is likely to be the connection between the beams and columns but who knows.

Fun fact for the road bridge: reinforced concrete beams are only economical for spans up to about 20ft / 6m maximum. After that they must be prestressed. Pre-tensioned precast spans are typical up to the longest transportable length which is about 58 ft / 18m. Beyond that they must be post-tensioned cast-in-place, although anything shorter can be pre- or post-tensioned or precast if it makes sense for the design.

[LennStar]

You've been firing missiles into civilian buildings since the beginning of the war. Putin get's a bit of his own medicines and start crying "terrorisms".

Russia can't even defeat a small country like Ukraine

Ukraine is I think the biggest country in Europe (if you don't count Russia as Europe of course) with the biggest army - before the war.

And Russia never did never shoot at civilians, didn't you hear that in all the TV shows in Russia?!?

[former player]

You've been firing missiles into civilian buildings since the beginning of the war. Putin get's a bit of his own medicines and start crying "terrorisms".

Russia can't even defeat a small country like Ukraine

Ukraine is I think the biggest country in Europe (if you don't count Russia as Europe of course) with the biggest army - before the war.

And Russia never did never shoot at civilians, didn't you hear that in all the TV shows in Russia?!?

Big in territory, not so big in population (44 million before the war, below Germany, France, UK, Italy and Spain).

[Just Joe]

This video shows that steel that was directly exposed to the fire is deformed in at least one section of the railway bridge. We also know that the fire was left to burn itself out over several hours:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1578638416194912256

The deformation shown is just the catwalk. Utterly irrelevant to the structural steel holding the bridge up.

Only objective indicator of the temperature at the site of the blaze we have that indicates that a temperature sufficient to affect steel was achieved.
And that is the relevance of the observation.

Reinforced concrete can suffer structural weakness due to expansion of the steel inside the concrete during a fire, but it can take several hours to even begin to cause this type of damage. Even standard building codes (in the West, at least) require structural integrity for up to 4 hours during a building fire. On the other hand, obviously buildings are usually not coated in thousands of gallons of flammable liquid with another couple thousand tons of metal train cars on top. I guess the only way to find out is when someone posts a video of a loaded train going over the damaged section.

This whole episode shows how little aircraft are playing in this war at this point (on both sides).

And there is also the effect of heat on the concrete itself and we know that the temperature in some areas was well above the critical temperature (deformed steel).
We also know that there were high winds creating a furnace effect that is clearly seen on videos and stills and that definitely increased temperature in certain areas.
We know that the fire was left to burn out and that took several hours. Damage to the concrete and steel is determined by exposure time and temperature and given that there was a furnace effect, it must be assumed that extreme temperatures might have developed in spots.
Given all that, it looks to me that the affected spans must be assumed to be structurally unsound.
The Kerch railway bridge has two tracks but they are layed on single spans so the structural problems affect both tracks.
All that said, even assuming that the railway bridge is brought back into service, the attack has revealed that the entire RU operation in southern Ukraine is critically dependent on the Kerch railway bridge: there really is no way to get sufficient supplies to RU forces with the Kerch bridge out of service.

The Kerch bridge attack is a truly catastrophic event for RU that upended the propaganda space by unequivocally demonstrating RU weakness and that massively interferes with the RU effort in southern Ukraine.

Does Russia not have an amphibious Navy? I know that is slower than multiple trains per day but still...

[former player]

This video shows that steel that was directly exposed to the fire is deformed in at least one section of the railway bridge. We also know that the fire was left to burn itself out over several hours:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1578638416194912256

The deformation shown is just the catwalk. Utterly irrelevant to the structural steel holding the bridge up.

Only objective indicator of the temperature at the site of the blaze we have that indicates that a temperature sufficient to affect steel was achieved.
And that is the relevance of the observation.

Reinforced concrete can suffer structural weakness due to expansion of the steel inside the concrete during a fire, but it can take several hours to even begin to cause this type of damage. Even standard building codes (in the West, at least) require structural integrity for up to 4 hours during a building fire. On the other hand, obviously buildings are usually not coated in thousands of gallons of flammable liquid with another couple thousand tons of metal train cars on top. I guess the only way to find out is when someone posts a video of a loaded train going over the damaged section.

This whole episode shows how little aircraft are playing in this war at this point (on both sides).

And there is also the effect of heat on the concrete itself and we know that the temperature in some areas was well above the critical temperature (deformed steel).
We also know that there were high winds creating a furnace effect that is clearly seen on videos and stills and that definitely increased temperature in certain areas.
We know that the fire was left to burn out and that took several hours. Damage to the concrete and steel is determined by exposure time and temperature and given that there was a furnace effect, it must be assumed that extreme temperatures might have developed in spots.
Given all that, it looks to me that the affected spans must be assumed to be structurally unsound.
The Kerch railway bridge has two tracks but they are layed on single spans so the structural problems affect both tracks.
All that said, even assuming that the railway bridge is brought back into service, the attack has revealed that the entire RU operation in southern Ukraine is critically dependent on the Kerch railway bridge: there really is no way to get sufficient supplies to RU forces with the Kerch bridge out of service.

The Kerch bridge attack is a truly catastrophic event for RU that upended the propaganda space by unequivocally demonstrating RU weakness and that massively interferes with the RU effort in southern Ukraine.

Does Russia not have an amphibious Navy? I know that is slower than multiple trains per day but still...

I guess if you live in the middle of North America the logistical challenges of moving vast amounts of heavy and/or dangerous cargo on a short sea crossing, in shallow waters with inadequate port facilities and looming bad weather, and without the right vessels immediately available in the location, might not be immediately obvious.

[Sibley]

This video shows that steel that was directly exposed to the fire is deformed in at least one section of the railway bridge. We also know that the fire was left to burn itself out over several hours:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1578638416194912256

The deformation shown is just the catwalk. Utterly irrelevant to the structural steel holding the bridge up.

Only objective indicator of the temperature at the site of the blaze we have that indicates that a temperature sufficient to affect steel was achieved.
And that is the relevance of the observation.

Reinforced concrete can suffer structural weakness due to expansion of the steel inside the concrete during a fire, but it can take several hours to even begin to cause this type of damage. Even standard building codes (in the West, at least) require structural integrity for up to 4 hours during a building fire. On the other hand, obviously buildings are usually not coated in thousands of gallons of flammable liquid with another couple thousand tons of metal train cars on top. I guess the only way to find out is when someone posts a video of a loaded train going over the damaged section.

This whole episode shows how little aircraft are playing in this war at this point (on both sides).

And there is also the effect of heat on the concrete itself and we know that the temperature in some areas was well above the critical temperature (deformed steel).
We also know that there were high winds creating a furnace effect that is clearly seen on videos and stills and that definitely increased temperature in certain areas.
We know that the fire was left to burn out and that took several hours. Damage to the concrete and steel is determined by exposure time and temperature and given that there was a furnace effect, it must be assumed that extreme temperatures might have developed in spots.
Given all that, it looks to me that the affected spans must be assumed to be structurally unsound.
The Kerch railway bridge has two tracks but they are layed on single spans so the structural problems affect both tracks.
All that said, even assuming that the railway bridge is brought back into service, the attack has revealed that the entire RU operation in southern Ukraine is critically dependent on the Kerch railway bridge: there really is no way to get sufficient supplies to RU forces with the Kerch bridge out of service.

The Kerch bridge attack is a truly catastrophic event for RU that upended the propaganda space by unequivocally demonstrating RU weakness and that massively interferes with the RU effort in southern Ukraine.

Does Russia not have an amphibious Navy? I know that is slower than multiple trains per day but still...

I guess if you live in the middle of North America the logistical challenges of moving vast amounts of heavy and/or dangerous cargo on a short sea crossing, in shallow waters with inadequate port facilities and looming bad weather, and without the right vessels immediately available in the location, might not be immediately obvious.

Given Russia's previous decisions in this whole war, I do not place the chances of them attempting ship or barge transportation at zero.

[pecunia]

This video shows that steel that was directly exposed to the fire is deformed in at least one section of the railway bridge. We also know that the fire was left to burn itself out over several hours:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1578638416194912256

The deformation shown is just the catwalk. Utterly irrelevant to the structural steel holding the bridge up.

Only objective indicator of the temperature at the site of the blaze we have that indicates that a temperature sufficient to affect steel was achieved.
And that is the relevance of the observation.

Reinforced concrete can suffer structural weakness due to expansion of the steel inside the concrete during a fire, but it can take several hours to even begin to cause this type of damage. Even standard building codes (in the West, at least) require structural integrity for up to 4 hours during a building fire. On the other hand, obviously buildings are usually not coated in thousands of gallons of flammable liquid with another couple thousand tons of metal train cars on top. I guess the only way to find out is when someone posts a video of a loaded train going over the damaged section.

This whole episode shows how little aircraft are playing in this war at this point (on both sides).

And there is also the effect of heat on the concrete itself and we know that the temperature in some areas was well above the critical temperature (deformed steel).
We also know that there were high winds creating a furnace effect that is clearly seen on videos and stills and that definitely increased temperature in certain areas.
We know that the fire was left to burn out and that took several hours. Damage to the concrete and steel is determined by exposure time and temperature and given that there was a furnace effect, it must be assumed that extreme temperatures might have developed in spots.
Given all that, it looks to me that the affected spans must be assumed to be structurally unsound.
The Kerch railway bridge has two tracks but they are layed on single spans so the structural problems affect both tracks.
All that said, even assuming that the railway bridge is brought back into service, the attack has revealed that the entire RU operation in southern Ukraine is critically dependent on the Kerch railway bridge: there really is no way to get sufficient supplies to RU forces with the Kerch bridge out of service.

The Kerch bridge attack is a truly catastrophic event for RU that upended the propaganda space by unequivocally demonstrating RU weakness and that massively interferes with the RU effort in southern Ukraine.

Does Russia not have an amphibious Navy? I know that is slower than multiple trains per day but still...

I guess if you live in the middle of North America the logistical challenges of moving vast amounts of heavy and/or dangerous cargo on a short sea crossing, in shallow waters with inadequate port facilities and looming bad weather, and without the right vessels immediately available in the location, might not be immediately obvious.

The Great Lakes are in the middle of North America. (Well sort of)

[Just Joe]

I was a sailor on USN "dock landing ship". I know what our Navy is capable of. Just curious if the Russians have these capabilities in 2022?

We could move large quantities of personnel and material on one ship. Multiply that by 5 or 6 ships working continuously and big things were possible.

I assume since the Russians are fighting a war, they wouldn't want to pause their war efforts to rebuild that bridge. Admittedly the amount of ineptitude they have demonstrated this year might prove shallow water operations like this difficult to complete safely...

[Travis]

Latest bridge damage:

https://twitter.com/mrkovalenko/status/1579550128930975744?s=21&t=-U-PeAEQwbLAEAENeAcghA

[Glenstache]

The revenge attacks on Ukraine are telling. They serve little strategic purpose other than to make the citizens scared again. They don't appear to have appreciably knocked out infrastructure. This appears to have been  in part to appease the hardliners who didn't like the war coming home to them (on a pretty legitimate supply line target). The combination of a new commander for the "special military operation" who is known for his brutality and whiffs of russian troops headed to barracks in Belarus makes me wonder if we will see a change in Russian tactics soon. An assault from the north from Belarus to Kiev would likely slow advances in the SE.

I know that the Russian descriptions of the bridge attack as terrorism are for his domestic audience, but it is still galling-- especially given the indiscriminate attacks on civilians as reprisal.

[PeteD01]

Latest bridge damage:

https://twitter.com/mrkovalenko/status/1579550128930975744?s=21&t=-U-PeAEQwbLAEAENeAcghA

Interesting. The deformed rails and axles are seen right were the furnace/blowtorch effect, seen in the footage from the fire, would be expected to be: between the underside of the car and above the rails. There might be some ugly problems lurking there.

[former player]

I was a sailor on USN "dock landing ship". I know what our Navy is capable of. Just curious if the Russians have these capabilities in 2022?

We could move large quantities of personnel and material on one ship. Multiply that by 5 or 6 ships working continuously and big things were possible.

I assume since the Russians are fighting a war, they wouldn't want to pause their war efforts to rebuild that bridge. Admittedly the amount of ineptitude they have demonstrated this year might prove shallow water operations like this difficult to complete safely...

The Russians can't move any military ships into the Black Sea, Turkey won't let them, so they can use only what was already in the Black Sea before the war started.  They can't gear up for a Kerch Straight military ferry system.

[former player]

Latest bridge damage:

https://twitter.com/mrkovalenko/status/1579550128930975744?s=21&t=-U-PeAEQwbLAEAENeAcghA

Interesting. The deformed rails and axles are seen right were the furnace/blowtorch effect, seen in the footage from the fire, would be expected to be: between the underside of the car and above the rails. There might be some ugly problems lurking there.

The surviving section of road bridge doesn't look too clever either.

[PeteD01]

Latest bridge damage:

https://twitter.com/mrkovalenko/status/1579550128930975744?s=21&t=-U-PeAEQwbLAEAENeAcghA

Interesting. The deformed rails and axles are seen right were the furnace/blowtorch effect, seen in the footage from the fire, would be expected to be: between the underside of the car and above the rails. There might be some ugly problems lurking there.

The surviving section of road bridge doesn't look too clever either.

And the steel of at least one undercarriage has clearly melted, indicating 2200+ degrees Fahrenheit for an extended period of time in that particular area.

[Radagast]

https://twitter.com/mrkovalenko/status/1579550128930975744?s=21&t=-U-PeAEQwbLAEAENeAcghA (reply below that showing construction) This looks like a steel bridge to me. Saw lots or people on twitter talking about concrete damage but the concrete is just the piers. The structural parts aren’t visible in most damage videos or a far away and low quality. However they are well below the rail and the most import part the beams are far below. It did not collapse when it was weakest during the inferno when it had a train on it albeit empty, and whatever strength the steel has after cooling it is 100% certain to be a lot more than when it was hot. It held up an empty train when hot, it can maybe hold a full train when cool. So I still give it 50/50 at useable, and higher odds at being useable with limited capacity or reduced service life. If it was prestressed concrete it would be worse because the single narrow steel cables would be both fragile and very hard to inspect.

It would be nice if Ukraine had a way to retaliate against submarines and long range bombers.

[PeteD01]

So the experts believe that the bridge is compromised to some degree requiring either time consuming repairs or reduced load after temporary repairs.
RU cannot afford to close the railway bridge for an extended period of time so they will have to deal with decreased capacity which may of may not be sufficient to support RU military operations in southern Ukraine.
Time will tell and RU being RU, they might just try to run what they need instead of what the bridge can take...

Crimean Bridge blast: experts assess the damage
Published: October 10, 2022 2.51am EDT

The remaining road bridge has re-opened to car-only traffic. This may be reasonable, as the weight added by the cars is negligible compared to the weight of the bridge itself – and the political decision-making around acceptable levels of safety seems out of the ordinary.
Cranes have been shown lifting the fuel tanker wagon wreckage off the Crimea-bound rail line. It remains to be seen how the steel girders will perform under train travel. It is likely the trains will be instructed to go slow to reduce vibratory effects, and that wagons will not be fully-loaded.
Under normal circumstances, the blast and damage we have seen would result in an extended closure and repair works. Clearly, however, the circumstances are far from normal.

https://theconversation.com/crimean-bridge-blast-experts-assess-the-damage-192161

[rocketpj]

The revenge attacks on Ukraine are telling. They serve little strategic purpose other than to make the citizens scared again. They don't appear to have appreciably knocked out infrastructure. This appears to have been  in part to appease the hardliners who didn't like the war coming home to them (on a pretty legitimate supply line target). The combination of a new commander for the "special military operation" who is known for his brutality and whiffs of russian troops headed to barracks in Belarus makes me wonder if we will see a change in Russian tactics soon. An assault from the north from Belarus to Kiev would likely slow advances in the SE.

I know that the Russian descriptions of the bridge attack as terrorism are for his domestic audience, but it is still galling-- especially given the indiscriminate attacks on civilians as reprisal.

I am hoping that Ukraine has put some effort and time into shoring up defenses on the Belarussian border.  It isn't like an attack from there would be a surprise, since it has already happened once.  I also suspect they have fairly detailed intelligence on where Russian troops are at any given time.

[Just Joe]

I was a sailor on USN "dock landing ship". I know what our Navy is capable of. Just curious if the Russians have these capabilities in 2022?

We could move large quantities of personnel and material on one ship. Multiply that by 5 or 6 ships working continuously and big things were possible.

I assume since the Russians are fighting a war, they wouldn't want to pause their war efforts to rebuild that bridge. Admittedly the amount of ineptitude they have demonstrated this year might prove shallow water operations like this difficult to complete safely...

The Russians can't move any military ships into the Black Sea, Turkey won't let them, so they can use only what was already in the Black Sea before the war started.  They can't gear up for a Kerch Straight military ferry system.

Cool. Thanks. Makes sense.

[TomTX]

https://twitter.com/mrkovalenko/status/1579550128930975744?s=21&t=-U-PeAEQwbLAEAENeAcghA (reply below that showing construction) This looks like a steel bridge to me. Saw lots or people on twitter talking about concrete damage but the concrete is just the piers. The structural parts aren’t visible in most damage videos or a far away and low quality. However they are well below the rail and the most import part the beams are far below. It did not collapse when it was weakest during the inferno when it had a train on it albeit empty, and whatever strength the steel has after cooling it is 100% certain to be a lot more than when it was hot. It held up an empty train when hot, it can maybe hold a full train when cool.

Yep. They likely need to just replace the rail, ties and ballast. If the steel girder didn't yield at the hottest, it effectively regains its strength when cooled (possibly with some ductility changes, which is not likely to cause a problem for years, if ever.)

[Travis]

https://twitter.com/mrkovalenko/status/1579550128930975744?s=21&t=-U-PeAEQwbLAEAENeAcghA (reply below that showing construction) This looks like a steel bridge to me. Saw lots or people on twitter talking about concrete damage but the concrete is just the piers. The structural parts aren’t visible in most damage videos or a far away and low quality. However they are well below the rail and the most import part the beams are far below. It did not collapse when it was weakest during the inferno when it had a train on it albeit empty, and whatever strength the steel has after cooling it is 100% certain to be a lot more than when it was hot. It held up an empty train when hot, it can maybe hold a full train when cool.

Yep. They likely need to just replace the rail, ties and ballast. If the steel girder didn't yield at the hottest, it effectively regains its strength when cooled (possibly with some ductility changes, which is not likely to cause a problem for years, if ever.)

I don't have the Tweet to share, but I saw somebody (maybe Russian government) estimate 1-2 months to repair the track. I don't know if that's just the melted rails, or if that includes any damage to the superstructure.